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Inside The Data: What DVOA Is REALLY Saying About Eagles Offense · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher with the data man, Sam Finkel. And,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: of course, the Eagles. I don't know about you, Sam.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of the Eagles fans have been
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: reaching for the Rolades after two weeks because that one
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: was a really interesting ending.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Obviously, the Eagles drive down the field, get.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: The touchdown, win the game 24-20, and they are 2-0
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: through three weeks. And yet, on this data show, we're
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: going to present a few examples why– not a lot
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: of teams would be two and O if you put
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: them in a different, in the same situation, the Eagles
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: were in. And then more importantly, what I'm really excited
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: about is we're going to introduce DVOA.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Which has been a long, I don't want to say
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: a long time analytic.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: It's been an analytic that people in our world have
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: used for quite a while that helps measure efficiency, accuracy,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: other things that we'd use EPA for. And then you're
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: going to explain why it's an important data point and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: how it compares and contrasts to things like EPA.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Sound good?
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, very excited for it.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Have you come down from the high of that game?
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: That was an up and down game right there.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: You know, it felt like they handled business pretty well
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: in the first half and in the second half it
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: was a very different game. I'm actually really excited to
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: show the win probability chart because I think it will reflect,
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: as we've discussed before, the heart rate of any Eagles
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: fan watching the game and probably honestly Titans fans watching
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: the game too. It, it, it was, you know, a
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: nail biter really quick.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Cause I don't know if we're going to get to
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: it or spend a whole lot of time in this episode.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: But it is something from an analytical data point terrain
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: that I want your, I'm curious about. And I think
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: it wouldn't matter in the long run because of what
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: happened in the end result. But in the fourth quarter,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: as the Titans were driving, they had an illegal formation penalty.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: They were already behind the sticks. It was like third
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: and 23. No, second and 23, right? And then Nick
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Sirianni decided to take the penalty to make it second
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: and 28 instead of declining the penalty, which it originally
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: looked like he was going to do to just make
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: it third and 23. So he gave him two chances
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: instead of one. And then they wound up getting it
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: on that long run where there were a bunch of
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: missed tackles, but they wound up only having to kick
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: a field goal anyway. So I was just curious what
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: you were thinking with your– data-driven analytical mind in the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: moment about that decision?
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Was it 50-50? Was there.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: To me, and again, there's a reason I'm not coaching anymore,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: so I've got to put that caveat out there. I
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: would have declined the penalty because the yardage was less
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: important than the attempts. And as you can see.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: That's what I thought too.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: But the thing is, it's very easy to say that
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: in hindsight, but the thing is, even when they did
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: that play, they got one extra yard. So instead of
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Third and 22, it was third and 21 or whatever
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: it was. It was one yard difference. So I guess
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: it really didn't matter that much. But to me, in
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: those situations, attempts are more important than yardage, especially when
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: the yardage isn't that substantial. At least that's the thinking
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: that my brain automatically goes to. Right.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: That's what I was like.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: You only get– if you put them in third down
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: and very long of over 20, they only get one
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: shot to– not a Hail Mary, but they have to
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: complete a really long play, whereas two– gives them a
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: lesser average per play, right? Because they get two chances
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and they still have to strike kind of a one
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: long one in there.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: But, and then in the end, they wind up kicking
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: the field goal anyway.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: But that was just an interesting data point that they're
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: like a analytical inflection moment.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: You actually strike a really important, you know, strategy that
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: we can talk about really, really quickly from the Titans
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: offensive perspective. I mean, we had this debate in the
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: Penn State room all the time. When you have two opportunities,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: does it make more sense to go for two right
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: at the line or is it cut it in half?
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: Like that is a huge, you know, you give them that,
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: you know, struggle a little bit and you have to
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: kind of know how the other team operates to kind
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: of figure that out. But I do think it's really interesting.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: You know, it gets that question. If you have second
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: in a country mile, are you, are you taking half
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: of that or are you trying to go for both
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: times and does that change your odds? And I think
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: that's a really fascinating question. you know, question and maybe
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: something I can look into analytically. I'm sure it will
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: come up in the Eagles season at some point as well.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: So if it does, I'll look into it.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Another thing that came up and Ryan Pagnetti was all
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: over this on, on social media is, is that Robert
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Sala has a penchant for always kicking the ball into
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the end zone. And after the Eagles score that touchdown,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: he kicks the ball into the end zone. The Eagles
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: get the ball to 35. I'm sorry. No, before the
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Eagles score the touchdown, after the Eagles get, after the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Titans kick the field goal that we just talked about,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: They kick it into the end zone. Eagles get the
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: ball at the 35 instead of maybe trying to, you know,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: kick it short to the two to five yard line
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: and have the guy return it and not get the
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: ball at the 35. But he's just so like robotic
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: with that. And sometimes I wonder if Sal is a
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: better defensive coordinator than a head coach and game manager.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think that's I agree with
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: that sentiment for sure. But he's a really good defensive coach. Really,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: really good.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: He's very good.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: And we said on the pregame show that whatever happened
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: against the Jets in week one, we noted their John
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Franklin Myers, Jermaine Johnson, other players that they had brought in,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Jacob Martin, that they were a better defensive front than
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: they played against the Jets, and we expected more. And
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: they certainly showed you that they had more in them.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: They were challenged, I'm sure, during the week, and they
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: definitely responded. So, yeah, let's get to the charts that
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: you put together. We'll get right into it. I really
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: like the peak win percentage one because, like, you could
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: see the Titans are sort of like, eh, and then
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: low to low– or, I'm sorry, the Eagles are low, fine,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: then they drop down after that field goal and skyrocket
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: back up.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. It was– Definitely. That's how it felt at
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: the end of the game, too.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it sure did. So the Titans, what? They held
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: the highest winning percentage, I guess, right after that field goal, right?
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah. No, no.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. After that third down run.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah. After the third down run we talked about before
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: with the 27-yard pickup by Spears, it was 79% chance
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: of winning. And then I thought it was interesting, but
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: the game actually reverted back to a coin flip. after
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Hertz's four-yard scramble on second and 10 in the fourth
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: quarter with 45 seconds left.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: It reverted back to what? Say it again.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: A 50-50 coin flip. Wow.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: So it's all right.
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So it's at around 80% after that run. The Eagles,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I think Mauro Joma also makes a big play, right?
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: They hold them to a field goal.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So it probably drops way under 80% after only getting
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: a field goal out of that, right?
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: And then as soon as Hertz... gets that.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Scramble on for four yards to sub third and six.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: Interestingly, it becomes a coin flip. Yeah.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: It becomes a coin flip. Well, I guess if you
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: think about it, I mean, third and six likelihood, you're
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: probably going to kick the field goal. It's going to
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: be tied and goes to overtime. And that's the line
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: of thought. Like you're, you're not likely to convert a
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: third and six typically.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, right.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: So that's, that was the thinking, at least the logic
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: in the, you know, win probability model.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So now that is two straight weeks now that the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter chart has kind of been up and down
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: and up and down, and the percentages have changed very quickly.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Basic stats. You have one highlighted in red. We're just
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: going to talk about this in general because this is
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: the big one, okay? Because we already know the Eagles
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: have more yards, more plays. I mean, they held time
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: of possession by more than 13 minutes here.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: And before you even go into that, the time of possession,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sorry, the average starting field position is
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: almost negligible. And the Titans began one of their drives
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: on the 10 yard line. So take that for a second.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: I think that's really important. It kind of goes to
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: what you were talking about, about Ryan Pagnetti and talking
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: about how he was kicking right into the end zone.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: But like the field position, even though they had a
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: drive that started on the 10 yard line, like first
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: and goal, they started first and goal. The field position
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: was almost negligible. Like that should have been a substantial
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: advantage in Tennessee's, favor it should have been just by
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: virtue of having that one drive starting on first and goal.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: But that's a great point very interesting point again it
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: goes back to sort of your your coaching in that
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: regard right um i've got a really good data point
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: for you okay the eagles turn the ball over twice
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: on the road okay do you know how many teams
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: so far have played have turned the ball over twice
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: on the road this year through two weeks.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Take a guess.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: I'm assuming the Chargers are one of them.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I believe they are, yep. I don't have the teams
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: in front of me. I already am off of it, but.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: I would say, through two weeks, so we're talking about.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: Okay. I would say eight teams.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Close, 10 teams.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: 10 teams have played a road game and turned the
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: ball over twice in that road game. Of those 10,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: how many do you think have won that game?
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: I'd say one.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: That would be the Philadelphia Eagles. You are correct.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: You know what's interesting, though, with that, too? You look
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: at the turnover-worthy play distinction, only one of the throws
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: was considered a turnover-worthy throw, which I think is really interesting, too.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Is it because he got hit on the second one?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, the player was open.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: It was Devontae, right?
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: Yes, that's the exact reason. That's a really fascinating stat.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: What do you think the average margin of defeat is
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: for those teams that turn the ball over on the
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: road and lost those nine other teams?
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: Four points.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: My friend, you turn the ball over twice on the road,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: you usually lose big. 12.2 points. So you lose by
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: almost two possessions.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: When you turn the ball over twice on the road,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: the Eagles win.
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, that makes sense. Logically, that makes sense. But
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: I was giving some credit to some of those road teams.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: Maybe that shouldn't have. I was on a roll, too, Jeff.
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: I was on a roll.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: You were. You were. But that's okay. I put you
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: on the spot really quickly.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: I love when you bring those stats. That's awesome.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: It got me juiced through this. Let's go.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Well, you might not be juiced for the next chart
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: that you put together because it feels like all the
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: good we talked.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: About in week one is a little bit undone on
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: the third down situations.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, no, no, no.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Let me, let me say they convert, they convert, not conversion,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: just our discussion of how often they're back to being.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: Okay. Yes. That is, that is a fair point. Cause
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: I have the, on the season on the second chart and, Yeah,
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're back to having more third and long
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: than anything else. You know, we thought there was going
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: to be progress. And, you know, it's still really early.
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: There still could be. But, yes, you're right. The conversion
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: is still incredible, though.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: Incredible.
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: Unbelievable.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: Which we'll talk about.
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: We're going to get into that. I just, you know,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: the obligatory third down conversion chart from last year is staying,
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: at least for now. And, I mean, really just look
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: at it briefly. But, you know, 61.1%, 11 for 18.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: And then the opponent was six for 13. So the
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: Titans six for 13. Right.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, here are the Titans are right with their
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: struggling offense and trying to unlock Cam Ward.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: All of a sudden they're under center. They're doing play
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: action and they.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Look and say, hey, we converted 46 percent of our
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: third downs. That's that's actually higher than the Eagles average
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: for the year so far.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: And even higher than the Eagles 2024 Super Bowl year. 46.3
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: is very good. And then they look across and they say, oh, well,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: the Eagles converted. Not only did the Eagles convert 61%, Sam,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: but given that they were in second and third and
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: long and forever, like pretty much most of the game,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: that's even more unbelievable.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: It is. It is. I actually should have added the
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: 2026 third down. I think they're at like 52%. So
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: still a little bit lower, but it's... It's fourth best
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. I'll say that. Right.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. I had said this year. I meant last year.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: But I know you did because that's my fault. Because
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: I was missing that. I should add that just for
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: sake for next week.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe next week. So that's a great feather in
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the cap. You're 11 of 18. You're 61% on third down.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: What's not great, and this is more of a future discussion, Sam,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: is we saw this last year. And I know that
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I'm still banking on Hertz. Hertz has obviously improved.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: We've talked about that. It's been great. You cannot get
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: where you want to go, in my belief. I'll ask
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: you on yours in a second.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: If you are living in third and long, as often
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: as you are in third and short and third and
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: mid combined. I just don't think that that's last year
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: and that's a recipe for disaster against good teams.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: It is. It really is. And it is a recipe
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: that should not be followed if possible. So I agree
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: with that sentiment 100%. But that being said, I do
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: think they will– I think it will regress to a
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: more normal– when the sample size increases, it will be
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: a much more palatable distribution of third and short and
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: third and medium and third and long.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Well, I would say that in order for that to happen,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: which we'll get into in a minute, there's going to
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: have to be a change with their first down and
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: ground game.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So for you to say that you have to, you're
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: putting a little bit of a leap of faith. That's
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: something that Eagles haven't been able to do for 20,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: let's see, 17 games, 18 games last year.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah. 20 weeks consecutively.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: For the most part, outside of about three or four
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: decent games is going to turn around.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: Well, I'm also not sure that the shuffle on the
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: offensive line is done yet. So we'll, we'll see. I,
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: I'm giving it some time to, you know, settle up
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: a little bit, but I, You know, I'm a natural optimist.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, I've always have been, I'm going to stick
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: to that gun, but I think it's possible to fix
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: some of the issues.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: Right. Right.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: At least mask them.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Eagles having a 37.5 conversion rate
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: on third and long or more through two weeks.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: That's pretty damn good. The Titans are at 22%.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I would imagine the league average has got to be
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: under 30%.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: So that's pretty darn good right there.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: What you got on history here?
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So according to NFL research, the Eagles have started
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: 2-0 in consecutive seasons for the fifth time in franchise history.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: 2022, 2023, 1992, 1993, 1980, 1981, 1946, and 1947.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: How about that? All right. That's interesting. And Nick Sirianni
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: continues to be among the most winningest active coaches in
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: the NFL. Absolutely. All right. By the numbers, the Eagles offense.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: A lot of red there on the Titans side.
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: And the thing is, I could have put more red. So, yeah.
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: So this is comparatively.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: When I say Titans side, yeah. I mean, Eagles offense
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: against the Titans.
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: Absolutely. Yeah. So on the season, I mean, the offense
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: is still, you know, negative EPA. I mean, they're just
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: hurting them, shooting themselves in the foot. But particularly in
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: this game, particularly in the rushing offense, as we've kind
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: of mentioned, they've really struggled to run the ball. I
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: think they've struggled to pass protect too, which we'll talk about,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: but it's just, it's you, you, the average fan can't
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: assume that the Eagles offensive line is going to be
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: this bastion for success anymore. It's just not, that's not
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: what they are. I mean, they're a league average. If
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: that line.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: And by the way, this chart is like the perfect
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: setup from our conversation last week.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Cause I believe the Eagles last week had a.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Positive EPA positive but we said do not be fooled
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: because Jalen Hurts' scrambles impact that. But Jalen Hurts did not.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: I thought the Titans, with their middle stunting, did a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: really good job of keeping him in the pocket, not
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: letting him run. And now you see what the EPA
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: looks like when there's no scrambling yards.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. And that's what it probably would have been
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: last week if you removed these scrambles.
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: And for those listening only, it's a minus 0.24.
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: Pretty significant. It doesn't sound like it, but that's pretty significant. Yeah.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's almost three times what their season averages
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: of minus 0.9 or 0.09. So that again shows you
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: the difference of that Hertz made in week one. That's
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: not a true rushing offense though. When we talk about
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: QB scrambles.
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: And their run success rate, it went from 35 on
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: the season to 31 in this game. So I mean,
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: it's still not where you want it at all. And
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: the stuff rate is at, almost 22% against the Titans
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: and 19.3 on the season.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Right. Now they did see a little bit more of
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: a stack box. That was more not, that was, that's
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: how Robert Sala likes to defend. They saw a lot
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: more light boxes too, interestingly enough, right?
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, a lot of their pressures came out
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: of four man fronts and they were pretty successful with that.
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: So they didn't really need to stack the box so much.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: Very good. Um, separation for the Eagles was a better
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: against the Titans.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Which I said would happen. I don't anticipate that that
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: would have happened, but very much. Yeah.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: All right. Let's take a look at the personnel. One
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: of my favorite charts that you put together.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be somewhat predictable for
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a few weeks because of the issues that Eagles are
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: having at tight end and You.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: Know, having no healthy tight ends. Yeah.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: And I don't, I mean, Zach Ertz is coming off
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: a surgery, has not had an OTA, has not had
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: a training camp, has not had a ramp up. So
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know that Monday night he's getting out there.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: If he even is active, if he's going to be
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: getting out there very much, I think that this is
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: going to have to continue to be an 11 personal
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: offense for quite a bit.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I don't think that's what they want to do though.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: I really do not think that's what they want to do,
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: but I think the limitations are kind of forcing them
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: to be. Sure. Sure. But, yeah, I mean, they had
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: 56 of the– there were 72 plays, but there was
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: one that was the tush-push that became– it's not counted
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: in here. Because it was a penalty anyway. But 56
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: of the 71 plays that I'm counting here were out
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: of 11 personnel.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: All right. And they ran 17 times out of that.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, they ran– They're running more, obviously, out of
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: 12 personnel from a ratio basis as far as 11
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: runs on 14 12-personnel plays.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: So they're a little bit telegraphic there because they have
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: to be.
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: But they are trying to keep an honest run game
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: out of 11 personnel. RS percentage is, again, remind me?
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: Run success percentage.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: So how does 35.3% run success measure up to what
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: a good run game looks like?
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, run success... I mean, really just any
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: success you want to see probably around 45% typically. I mean,
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: that's like where you feel comfortable with it. But yeah,
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, again, the way it's interesting, some of the
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: other efficiency metrics, the ones I use is the ones
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: we did at Penn State, which is 40% on first,
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: 50% on second, and then conversion on third and fourth.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: Some of the other ones I've seen, and we're going
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: to talk more about them, are actually cyclical. picking up
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: on second down. I think that's too high of a
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: threshold for success personally, and that's not what I did
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: at Penn State, so it's not in there, but that
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: is going to come back up again in the next
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: segment that we'll talk about, but just keep that in mind.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: All right, so that's a total success rate of about 41%.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: for the Eagles offense, which is good and heavily weighted
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: by their 44% on pass success.
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: Out of 11 personnel, mostly that's what we were getting at.
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Okay. Sam.
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: And here, here's where it becomes significant. Why don't you,
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: why don't you team me up for this one? Cause I,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: this is what you're excited to talk about.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I asked Sam, I was like, there's gotta be, they
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: have to have the biggest discrepancy between success and on
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: third down compared to success on early to like first
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: and second down.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: And I asked Sam to put together the.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Efficiency on that because as I've been mentioning throughout this
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: whole show, I don't, I don't know how sustainable it
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: is to be that successful when you're, when you're constantly
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: running into brick walls on first down and put yourself
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: in what they call unmanageable down and distance scenarios after.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: And I mean, Sam went and found it.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: So there, we, we did talk about trying to get
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: a league rank, just like an average for 2026 on
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: first and second down, but it was really hard to
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: get that. So I found a study that had the
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: success averages for 2025. And again, I didn't do that research,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: so I'm not 100% sure about how credible it is,
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: but it was the best I found with everything. And
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: this one was actually instituting the higher thresholds I was
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: talking about, where it was 40%. on first, 60% on second, conversion,
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: conversion on third and fourth, respectively. So even with these
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: higher thresholds, that was apparently the league average. And that's
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: what I'm going to base it off of. It was
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: credible enough where I think it's worth at least using
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: it as a benchmark, but it is not the end
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: all be all. I would not consider it because I
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: didn't do it myself. I can't verify the authenticity of it.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: But either way, let's go off of that as just
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: a benchmark.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: And I think that the numbers make sense here.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: So you can, why don't you start with the league
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: averages from last year and then say, tell us what the,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: what the Eagles averages for the season in Tennessee were.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Sure. I mean, according to this study, 51.7% success rate
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: on first down the Eagles against Tennessee were 11 of 27,
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: which is 40.7%. And then when the season they're 37.8%.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: So they're basically 14 point percentage points lower.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: For the season than what the league average was last
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: year on first down.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: From a success rate. Okay.
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: Which is like monumentally bad.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Right. So everything sequences, right?
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: So if you're bad on first down, you're in second
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: and long situations. Now read the second and long stats.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So the league average was 53.3%. And a lot
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: of that, again, is from sequencing. And this is with
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: the higher threshold of getting 60% of second downs. from
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: these studies. So that's, that's pretty impressive. The Eagles less
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: impressive against the Titans. They were eight for 25 for 32%.
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: And then on the season with 39.5%. Wow.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, now we're talking about being 20 points behind
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: league average against Tennessee and almost 15 points behind for
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the season.
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: These are just it.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Listen, we're not trying to be negative. We're trying to
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: explain what the Eagles are doing. I already told you
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: about the turnovers.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: On the road, right?
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: They're doing some statistical anomaly type things, which maybe can
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: get you wins over two bad teams, but you got
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: to watch for this as they go forward.
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: If they keep this up, they will lose against good teams.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: Almost definitely.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, the data would say that for sure.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: It's not sustainable, but here's where it gets really, really interesting. Yeah.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: Third down. Yeah. The league average in 2025 was 41.5%. Mm-hmm. Again,
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: we talked about it. The Eagles are 11 of 18
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: for 61.1% against Tennessee. And then on the season, they're 53.1%.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: That's so significant.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I just think that's crazy and really telltale. And
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: by the way, I'd take nothing away. I think that
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: that's so difficult to do that I give the Eagles
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: a lot of credit for being able to do that
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: for two weeks, even though we talk about the unsustainability
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: of it.
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, again, sequencing was a huge issue last year.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: It is going to be an issue this year unless
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: they figure it. It's a weird inverse of last year.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: I mean, they were inefficient on pretty much every play,
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: but the third down was historically bad, at least for
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: the Eagles in the past five to ten years.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: And we know, of course, the Eagles are generally great
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: on fourth down because they tush-pushed their 100%. Last year,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: league average was 52%. All right, some other stats you
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: put together on this efficiency.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Go ahead.
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so just this chart just shows the
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: conversion rate compared against Tennessee versus this season. So if
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: you wanted to see it graphically, what it looks like.
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can see they're not really doing great
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: on first and second down, and then there's that big
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: spike on third. And there's only one fourth down conversion,
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: so it looks very skewed.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's kind of where it makes this. If you
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: ignore fourth, it's like a little bit of a stare.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: They have to rely on third down to be successful.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: It's amazing to see in bar graph form. Like, wow,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: they're up towards 60%. I'm freaking third down. And first down,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: they're not. It would be one thing if they were
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: facing third and short a lot, then that would make sense.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: Right. I mean, that's what makes it kind of really fascinating,
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: I'd say.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: Very much so. The rollercoaster ride that they are. You
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: put some details together here on the run game.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, no player had a positive rushing EPA.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: Against Tennessee.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: Tennessee. Against Tennessee, yeah. Jalen Hurts had the best rushing
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: EPA per attempt at minus 0.06 on his five attempts
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: for 16 yards. Makai Lemon, very polarizing in the advanced stats.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: He didn't really touch the ball that much, but he
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: had the worst rushing EPA per attempt at Minus 1.7
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: on his one attempt for minus five yards. It really
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: took them off of their drive significantly. But fascinatingly enough,
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: he had the highest, I think, EPA per catch later.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: We'll talk about it, but it's very polarizing performance for sure.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised Hollywood Brown didn't have the highest EPA
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: per rush because he had the two end arounds.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: He is on– I think he was second on there.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: That's so sad. Quarterback and wide receiver are your highest EPA.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: It's really not great. Will Shipley led the running back
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: room in terms of successful runs with a 42.9% clip,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: seven attempts for 24 yards, followed by Tank Bigsby with 30.8%,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: 13 attempts for 33 yards. And here's where I think
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: Eagles fans might get upset with me, and don't get
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: upset with me. It's just the numbers. Tank Bigsby left
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: the most rushing yards on the field with minus 14
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: over expectation. So that's where you just take an average
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: player and plug them in and how they would perform.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: And then Hollywood Brown had the highest rushing yards over
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: expectation by one yard. So a very, very bad game.
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: Even if you just put an average replacement player in,
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: you know, That player would have had 14 more yards
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: than Bigsby and one less yard than Hollywood Brown. So
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: that's what the stats, advanced stats say on that.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Time to rearrange the depth chart. Will Shipley is now
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: RB1 and Hollywood Brown is RB2.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: Hurts Unlocked, you asked.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: A good title because, wow, look at all that green,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: which represent completions for those listening on his spray chart here.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: All that green, not only... Everywhere, but not only over
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: the middle, I should say, but everywhere. I mean, he
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: peppered the field.
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: It's a beautiful chart. Again, maybe take the red away,
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: which is the interceptions.
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: Hey, we talked about this. You're all right with some
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: interceptions if you're driving the ball, right?
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: You are. I'm particularly okay with the second interception.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: Me too. He got hit.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, he got hit.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: I think he would have hit him because Smith was open.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just a– cost of doing business sometimes.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: For sure.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: The first one, it was a really good defensive play,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: but I know what Hurts was trying to do. He
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: didn't need to. Either way, yeah, Hurts on lock. So
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: Hurts' touchdown to Cooper was his eighth fourth-quarter comeback since 2023.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: He's tied for second in the NFL. Can you guess
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: who's number one?
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Fourth-quarter comebacks?
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: Since 2023. I was shocked by this.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: One, actually. Fourth-quarter comebacks....
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to think of a team that's bad enough
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: to be down quite a bit.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Like I was going to say Stafford, but I realized
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: the Rams had a lot of leads. It's not Sam Darnold.
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: I purposely left this off because I wanted you to guess.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Okay. So it's not Sam Darnold.
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: Not Sam Darnold.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Is it Jordan Love?
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: It's Jordan Love.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: Oh, that's pretty good.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: It's pretty good. Nice. Well done. Well done. I thought
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: you'd enjoy that one.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: I love trivia. I love this data trivia.
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: I love that you brought some for me today. That
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: was fun.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: I like to be able to give as well as take.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: Well, Hertz also averaged 3.5 seconds to throw, which is
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: the fourth longest of his career. Yeah. Yeah. Interesting. I mean,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: I thought last week he held on to the ball forever.
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: So it was interesting to see it even longer this week. Yeah.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: And I, and I don't think he held onto the
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: ball long. I think he took advantage because again, when
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: you're in second and third and long, you can't be
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: three step dropping and throwing the ball six yards, right?
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Like you need to.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: So this is, I know this is not a popular
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: opinion and I'm not trying to sell anybody on the
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Eagles offensive line playing well. I thought that the worst
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: of Cam Juergens was awful, but like limited to like
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: six or seven snaps that were awful, but like across
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the board.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: And again, it's the Titan.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: So I'm not saying this line has to stay the
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: same or I'm just saying, I don't think, it was
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: as bad from start to finish as it looked at
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: like five or six or.
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: Seven moments in the game.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: You know what it is like for an offensive lineman, Sam,
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: you can have three or four bad snaps and your
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: quarterback gets wrecked, throws them. And those are like all
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: people remember out of the 60. So I'm not trying
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to sell anybody that can't drink has played great either.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying like the moments that were bad were horrific,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: but there were actually some decent past pro moments too.
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, just think of Joe. I mean, he
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: had like six really, really bad, snaps that made his
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: entire performance. So I understand what you're saying, but the
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: bad were really bad. If we're going to be honest, it,
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, it directly led to points being taken off
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: and added for the Titans. So I, I just, I agree.
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: I think that that's a really fair point, but I,
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: I definitely, I see what you're saying.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. What do you, what do you make of the, the,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: the stats when he's holding the ball versus not?
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So if he's holding it for 2.5 or more seconds,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: He was 18 for 28 for 224 yards, eight yards
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: per attempt. And that's where two of the touchdowns and
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: the two interceptions came from. Interestingly, when he got the
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: ball quick, less than 2.5 seconds, which is usually the
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: threshold for quick passes on most of these sites, it
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: was eight for nine for 40 yards, which is 4.4
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: yards per attempt. So it's interesting. He like halved his
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: efficiency in terms of yards per attempt, but his completion
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: percentage was so much higher. And I think that's one
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: of the benefits of having Mannion's offense is this, when
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: you do get the ball out quickly, it's high completion,
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: like you see in the Shanahan and McVay scheme. That's
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: a big part of it. But when you do, I mean,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: you're getting more of the explosive plays with Hurts doing
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Hurts' thing. So it's a balance, I think.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see if defense, especially with better personnel,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: go back to playing a little bit more man coverage
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: now that Hurts is really layering the ball against zone
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: really well and seeing second and third level targets and
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: being able to connect with them because you know, the
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Titan Titans did play a lot of zone and I,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: and I get why they don't have a lot of
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: great sticky cover guys in the back end and they
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: were down a corner, but also that hurts when you,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: when you're playing zone and you don't have sticky cover
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: guys is awesome.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Exactly.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: So, but I mean, it's interesting. I kind of want
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: to skip my, I'm going to go out of order
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: here a little bit because there's this, a lot of
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: talking points, at least that I saw on the internet
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: about hurts being a first target. read quarterback i know
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: that was like a big thing about you know him
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: only throwing the first read but i thought it was
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: interesting i got some of the stats uh hertz has
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: a 54.8 first read target percentage which was 12th in
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: the nfl 4.8 second read target percentage 19th in the
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: nfl and similarly a 4.8 check down target percentage was
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: 28th in the nfl so i just i just talking
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: about it going him going through the progressions i mean
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: he's really not going past that second read because he
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: can just extend the play with his feet. I mean,
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: that's why the check down percentage is as low as
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: the second, but I do think it's really interesting. And I,
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: you kind of like teed me up for it a
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: little bit. I'll go back to the staff before, but
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: I just wanted to bring that up and see what
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: you thought about it, what that means to you.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: I think this needs a larger sample size.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: I don't want to, I think that it would be
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: erroneous to say, Oh look, he's just a one read quarterback.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Cause he hit his first read 56% of the time,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: because just watching that final drive, like Devante Smith was
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: literally open and, so many times in a zone that like,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't you throw the ball to him? And then
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: like when you're missing Dallas Goddard, like you may not
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: feel like your.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: Second and third targets are as reliable, especially if they're
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: good zone beaters. So it needs a little bit more
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: and I don't fault.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: I don't, I don't think it certainly is not a
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: disadvantage if you're targeting on any given play, a wide
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: receiver like Devante Smith and he's open.
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I don't disagree. I'm trying to pull up this 2025,
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: see if I can find it in time just to,
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: it's not working with, it's not, for some reason it's
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: putting receivers up there. So I'm not going to even
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: bother with it, but yeah, I, I would like to
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: see the samples. Like that's, that's by the way, through
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: two weeks, that's right.
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Right. But that is something we should follow. So I'm
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: glad you put that in there.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I just thought it was interesting in the new,
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: you know, stats that we were adding in here. It
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: was in one of the packages. So I wanted to
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: kind of at least bring that discourse up and we'll see,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: we'll follow it, see how it goes, but let me
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: go to the staff before it, which in this game hurts,
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: had a, plus 0.11 EPA per dropback, which was 13th
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. Again, a signature Hurts stat is the
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: completion percentage over expectation. He had a positive 6.1%, which
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: is 12th in the NFL. And again, all that means
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: is if an average quarterback was throwing the same ball,
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: would it be completed? Hurts tends to complete them higher
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: than that rate. He led the NFL in it. I
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: think it was 2025 or 2024. 2024.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he led it in CPOE.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: He led it in.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: Good stuff. All right.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: And real quick on the wide receivers here.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: I have all these stats here. I just want to
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: talk about Wicks. We talked about Lemon, how Lemon led Wicks.
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: both the catch rate over expectation and the EPA per
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: target and had the lowest rushing EPA. So that's just like,
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to make of that.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Well, he had a big third down conversion and it
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: was one of like maybe three targets.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: So that's going to heavily weight your EPA per target.
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: And the sample size is obviously not high. Correct. But
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: I really just want to talk about Wicks for a
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: second because it was so difficult for me to not
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: pick him as star of the stat sheet this week.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: I didn't, but I want to talk about him for
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: a second. He just deserves to be talked about.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: For sure.
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  Speaker 3: He had an EPA per target of plus 1.91%. And
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: then his completion rate over expectation was plus 15.8%. But
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: let's really dive into that EPA. So he's targeted on
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: five out of 12 routes on third and fourth down,
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: catching all five for 74 yards and five first downs.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Wow, that's pretty efficient right there. Let that sit for
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: a second.
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's crazy. But on those five plays, the Eagles
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: generated plus 11.8 EPA, fifth most by any receiver in
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: a game over the last two seasons.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: Over the last two seasons. Because he single-handedly was the
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: conversion machine. Without him, 11.8 points would not have been
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: potentially generated. That is such a significant impact. But one
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: of the things I also want to talk about is
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: he's fourth in the NFL and EPA per target at 1.48,
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: one through two games. And then I have another new
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: stat I'm just going to throw in here, which is
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: defense adjusted yards over replacement and what that means above replacement.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: So that's, that's if you took a, a, just an
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: average receiver and put him in there. He, he had
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: 61 extra yards generated essentially through this that a normal
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: receiver wouldn't have, which is the eighth highest in the NFL. Wow. Yeah.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: So that's just, I have no idea how they get,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: you know, like I think about the, what was the
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: bomb that he had against the commanders, right?
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I have no idea how they quantify how an average
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: receiver would have, or would have not done. But I
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: listen every time he had two targets that game, One
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: was that bomb, and the other was a touchdown.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: And again, in this game, every single catch was for
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: first down. I mean, that's like almost Puka Nakua type
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: efficiency right there.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: No, it most certainly is. I think that is so
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: worth mentioning. It was so hard for me not to
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: pick him as a starter stat sheet on offense.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: You know who I picked. I think you have to
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: know at this point. I mean, you looked at it already.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: I did, but I don't remember.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: I would have assumed that it would be either Jalen
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: hurts or, um, Devante Smith, but.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: So it was really hard not to pick hurts also,
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: but I, it was Smith for me and we'll get
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: into why.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Um, no, either one.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Smith had a, uh, completion rate over expectation of 17.3%,
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: which is pretty dang good.
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: That's amazing.
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: Um, let's, let's talk about this offensive line. Uh, When
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: Hertz held on to the ball for more than 2.5 seconds,
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: by the way, the Titans generated 17 pressures in three sacks.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: And most came from the four-man rush. We have actually
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: a chart of Jeffrey Simmons just half rushes, which I
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: think is a really cool chart. I haven't seen that
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: chart yet.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: That is cool. I love it because the circular ones
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: show how much he was stunting and twisting.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and he was moving around quite a bit, and
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: they were doing a really good job of it. And look,
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: I mean.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Seven pressures. My God.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: Seriously. And when you look at these pressures, I mean,
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: they said that what there was 17 and, and there's
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: 11 of them attributed to the offensive line, which means
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: that the other six were attributed to Hertz. That's really
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: how that, or, or a tight.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: End running back.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: I was going to say where the blitz pickup.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: In some capacity that it was a non offensive line pressure,
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: but still 11 pressures allowed. Doesn't feel great for your
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: offensive line. I mean, you look at it, Lane Johnson,
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: you know, it, one is that's, that's fine. But I mean,
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: everybody else had two or more.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: You don't care about that.
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: You really don't. Yeah.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: And by the way, even we're used to seeing goose
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: eggs for lane.
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: So even one, and I think you had one the
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: last week as well. Yeah. My lot of having three,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: I think that Juergens next to him kind of worried
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: him a little bit. I don't know.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: But again, he also last year, I thought had some struggles.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: This is just not the same offensive line, not just
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: from personnel, but, but even the players that you are
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: expected to, they're getting a little older.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, Lane Johnson, for sure. My lot has been
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: playing for a while now, you know?
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, it'll be interesting to see what they do. Yeah.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Boy, I love that pressure.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: It's kind of cool, right?
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. It is really cool. All right. Your star of
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: the stat sheet was Devante.
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it had to be, I, I was sitting there,
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: I was, I was talking to my girlfriend and I
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: was like, she's like, it has to be Devante Smith.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: And I was like, I, I agree.
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: So, you know, we're sitting there and he had 10 receptions,
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: 13 targets, 117 yards and one touchdown, 11.7 yards perception.
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: That's just the, you know, the basic stat line. That's
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: what everyone sees. But let's talk a little bit more
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: of the advanced stuff, right? So he caught six of
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: the eight outside the numbers for 77 yards and one touchdown,
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: including two sideline catches for 24 yards. And you can
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: see that on the chart as well. Of that, you know, 15.4%
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: tight window, which is the second highest on the team.
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: It was 2.7 average separation, which was the second lowest
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: on the team. So they were covering him pretty well.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: And that's kind of where that tight window kind of
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: comes in, right? And he was making plays. And that's
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: where that catch rate over expectation that we talked about,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: where I think it was at 17.3% that we talked
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: about earlier. That's really impressive. He's also the sixth receiver
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: in the NFL with defensive yards above replacement receiver. And
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: that's with 45 yards in week two. So an average
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: receiver you replace him with, just a random, you know,
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: receiver you throw in there, they would have had 45
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: less yards. Wow. And then again, his adjusted catch rate,
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: which is just, you know, takes away uncatchable passes is
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: a hundred percent, which is tied for third, which is
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: really interesting because there were two, two guys at 125%.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: They caught passes that were not catchable.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: Oh, okay. I get it.
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: That was like, how is that possible?
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah. That was Tet McMillan.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: And makes sense.
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: I think there was another guy that was, it might've
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: been like Drake London or somebody, but it was another
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: guy that you'd expect to make some unbelievable catches. But
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: to me, it was really close for star of the
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: stat sheet. So, but I got to go with Smith.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: I would think the 2.7 average separation rate being second
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: lowest among NFL wide receivers is a reflection of how
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: much zone.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: The Titans played.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: You know, when you're not getting man to man, you
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: don't have a chance to really beat somebody deep, right?
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: Like you're just catching it between, um defenders all exactly
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: yeah i wouldn't i didn't want anybody to get worried
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: like oh man.
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: That's low average separation i'm not worried about it yeah
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: it would remind me very much of a jackson smith
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: and jigma game just a monster amount of targets a
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: monster amount of catches big huge clutch catches and.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: You know away you go there you go all right
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: um defense now we get into uh So the red– because, again,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: a positive EPA for defense is not good. And the
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: Eagles were not against the Titans, surprisingly.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: And I'm a little surprised.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: To see two red– I know they weren't great because
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: of some big plays, but overall they played well.
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and honestly, I'm really excited to talk about this
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: with the new stat we're bringing in because EPA is
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: just so sensitive to explosive plays.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Yes, it is.
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: That 27-yard rush on third and 22– single-handedly probably push
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: them into the positive on the rush epa just just
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: to be clear like that's it is so epa is
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: a great stat but it's very sensitive to single plays
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: like single plays can skew it completely interceptions skew it
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: completely that's why the passing epa was as low as
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: it was it's really sensitive to sacks like there are
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: things that epa struggles to deal with and rightfully so
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: because those are impact plates.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Right right right right i think that you've said this
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: before to put it in layman's terms for listeners and viewers,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: EPA measures the amount, like your, the amount of play
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: helps you score, right?
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: Your expected points. So the football field is only a
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: hundred yards.
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: If you get a 41 yard catch, like IU minor had,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: that is literally 40% of the field you covered in
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: one place. So obviously if you can do that in
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: one play, your EPA on that play is going to
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: be sky high. You went almost half the football field
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: in one play, right? And the same thing with it.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: a 26 yard run that you get on third down.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, just there were four or five plays that
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: increased their expectancy to score.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: Now, you know, we score on those plays.
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: No, but beautifully said. Yeah.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: But, but that's the thing that, that is one of
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: the flaws and, but it's just a feature. Maybe it's a,
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: it's more of a feature of EPA that you have
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: to understand, right? EPA is a great stat for what
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: it does. But it doesn't translate the points directly. And
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: it's just a measure of efficiency, essentially, in that regard. So, yeah,
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: I just think that's worth mentioning. I'm glad you brought
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: that up.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, sure.
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: And this will this will change. I fully I think
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: this Eagles defense is pretty good. I think there's a
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: couple of weak spots safety. But I do think that they're.
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: are some things that you'll see a more traditional negative
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: EPA per play on this defense as the season progresses.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: I feel pretty confident on that.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: I would think so, too.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: As far as the net time before throwing, and I think, again,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: this is a function of, so it was. 04 for
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the Titans, right? They had more time to throw than
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: the Eagles normally allow, correct?
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: Okay, just making sure I had that correct.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: And that, to me, was more a function of the
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: under center play action game. It's not like the Eagles
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: did anything wrong. They were defending a run when there
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: was no run.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: You have to. They're playing their keys.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: And then Ward made some really nice, beautiful, quick trigger
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: throws off of play action.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: I'm glad you said that because we're going to talk
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: about him right next.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Got it. The pressure rate.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: And again, I think that's why the pressure rate was
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: down around 38%.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: As opposed to for the season, they're at 45%.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: And remember, the Jets got a 50% pressure rate against
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: that same Titans line. So, I mean, it's interesting to see.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: But they didn't go under center against the Jets. That
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: was an adjustment, right, that helped them out.
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: Yep, I was kind of hoping you'd say that.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: There you go. Good stuff.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: What else do we want to point out here? Average separation, 3.7 yards.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know how I feel about that.
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we'll see. It's nothing that crazy.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: It's not great.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: No, no, it's not.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: It's not.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: It's higher than their season average. Their season average is
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: a little higher than normal. But yet they didn't get
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: beat over the top, I don't think. now they got
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: beat on deep over. They got beaten the intermediate part.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: Of the field.
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Um, so they only use the stack box. Well, they
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: use one 14% of time, which is more than the commanders.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: But I think that the Titans had.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: Better running backs.
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: And, uh, went light box a little bit less than
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: they did against the commanders, which is interesting.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Then. All right.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Um, All right.
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: You're Cam Ward. What do you want to talk about?
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I just want to talk about, I mean, you
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: look at the chart.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: That's a nice chart. Like as far as spreading the
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: ball around.
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. It's pretty much every area. You feel pretty
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: good if you're a Titans fan, I suppose.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: No, I mean, you have to at least feel if
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: you're a Titans fan encouraged by progress.
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I think his week one chart was not as enticing. Right.
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: But when I did the same thing, when he held
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: the ball for, 2.5 seconds or more it was he
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: was 5 for 12 for 96 yards but when he
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: got the ball out quickly and you know we were
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: talking about it he was 8 for 8 for 87 yards.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah yeah good for him you know I think he
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: needed that honestly I think so too yeah I kind
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: of like the kid so I love him I would
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: like to see him succeed and I feel bad that
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: he's in a in a tough situation I always hate
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: when these guys get stuck with defensive minded head coaches
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: who always want to run the ball At least he's
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: got Dable, who clearly made an adjustment in week two.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: So there's some promise for Cam Ward.
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm confident that he'll at least have an opportunity
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: for a while. I think that leash is a little
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: bit longer than you typically see with some of these
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: experiments for quarterbacks.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: Get him some offensive line help, though. He really needs that.
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: Yes, they do. But, I mean, they give up on
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: first-round quarterbacks so quickly. It's crazy, this league. Right.
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: So as we talk about the Eagles' edge rush, and
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: I think this is where they're really missing Grenard. And
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: I know Jalex Hunt's a good player, but he's still
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: young coming into his own. He does get a lot
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: of– he gets hurries. No one's really finishing sacks yet
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: for the Eagles, though?
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah. The edge? No, I would say no. They need
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: Grenard for sure. Yep. I will say that, you know,
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: the get-offs were pretty good besides Epinesa. I mean, everyone
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: is sub one.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Um so yeah that's the thing sam i mean you're
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: watching and you feel like man these guys are firing
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: off the ball but they're just not bringing the quarterback
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: down they're not getting close yeah not finishing.
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: But okay another thing you have to understand is jayden
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: daniels is the mobile court like he's one of the
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: premier mobile quarterbacks sure and cam ward can move like
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: i'm not saying that he's a running quarterback not like
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: jayden daniels or someone like lamar but he can move
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: he can extend plays so just very athletic quarterbacks they've
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: been playing so i I think some of that is that. Again,
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: you want to see them be able.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: To– It is.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the only problem is like this is a league
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: now where the Matthew Staffords are the ones who are
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: few and far between.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: For sure.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: The quarterbacks who can get out of the pocket now
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: are pretty much every quarterback except for like three or four.
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: I agree with that. I just– I think– daniels specifically
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: is one of the best in the league with that
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: um yes and then yes cam ward is he did
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: a good job extending the plays i i really feel
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: like he did again he's not really a scrambler like
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: daniels is but you feel okay about his movement.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: So yeah for sure uh interior same thing i mean
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: um now a jomo i i just remove a jomo
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: because he's he's been incredible and i don't know if
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: you're you're watching looking at the stats um in this
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: regard sam but when the Eagles are in their pass
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: rush down, their four-man front, he is like almost 90%
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: of the time next to Carter and Jalen.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: Jordan Davis is not. As you have right here, pass
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: rush is seven. Jomo, 21.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: So he's seeing three times more work on pass rush
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: downs than Jordan Davis is. And Davis is the guy
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: who got the huge extension.
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: And interestingly, I saw– I don't remember who it was,
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: but it was credited to somebody– where, where Mauro Jomo
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: had the highest double team percentage of anybody in the league.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: Wow. So I did not realize that.
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: On the Eagles, I apologize on the, on the Eagles
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: over Carter.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Oh, okay.
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: Distracted there for a second.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: So Greg Cosell did a good job of breaking this down.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: The Eagles have been stunting a lot and using Jared's
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: hunt to loop from the edge over the middle. And
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of times the centers are aware, aware of this.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: And they're coming off of Carter to make sure they
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: can take.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: On the rusher up the middle when Hunt comes around.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: So Cosby did a good job in week one of
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: holding Carter in one-on-one situations when the center had to
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: account for it.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: And the Titans did that as well.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't surprise me that more of the double
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: teams have gone in situations to a Jomo than Carter.
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: But I just thought that was really interesting. And I
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: wish I could credit whoever I saw that with, but
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: I'm glad Greg Cosell broke that down. That feels good. Yes.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: So Jomo's pass rush pressure is 21%, which is elite.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: Anything over 15%, as you have noted.
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: That's just his pass rush per pressure. His win percentage
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: is 0%, which is not good.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: No, yeah, that's a good point. What is his pressure rate, though?
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: So that's just... it takes that prop pass rushes and
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: divide them by the pressures. So he's getting a, a
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: pressure every 21. It it'll be better when there's more,
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: like if we do, when we do our mid season, it'll,
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: it'll be a cleaner number.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: Awesome.
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: I just took those charts that we used from the
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: mid season review, which that's where that becomes important. Or
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: like with Carter, when there's three pressures, he had 21
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: pass rushes. So he's getting a pressure every seven pass rushes.
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: That's when that becomes more important. It, It's kind of
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: an abstract when there's only one pressure or no pressure.
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't worry about that number so much now.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: I don't put a whole lot into get-off.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: It's just how fast you cross the line of scrimmage,
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: but sometimes if there's a big discrepancy, it can tell
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: you something. Right now, his is under a second at. 97,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: which is close to edge get-off, which edge guys are
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: obviously smaller and speedier. Jordan Davis's is 1.34, so you're
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: talking about almost a full half of half a second
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: difference there.
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And again, the sample size is really small. There
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: was only in seven pass rushes.
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: So it could have just been one really bad.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: So your star was Rick Wollin. It was of the
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: staff defense.
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And the reason why it could have been cute
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: as well. But basically he was targeted four times in coverage,
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: allowing two receptions for 21 yards. And the one of
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: the receptions was the 15 yard to Carnell Tate at
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: the end of the game. So really he was allowed,
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: he allowed six, six yards pretty much the entire game
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: until that last. Again, I know you have to count it,
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: but like, I feel like that's really, really impressive.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: Um, He had a minus 18.1% completion rate over expectation,
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: which led the team. He had a minus 3.3 coverage EPA,
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: which led the team. He had 2.3 yards of average
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: separation and he had 25% tight window and Hawk percentage.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: It was the same play. So it's, it's one out
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: of the four, but still, I thought it was very impressive.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: Good stuff.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: You have on some other guys, Jihad Campbell, Now, Campbell
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: had seven defensive stops, ten tackles.
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know that he played great.
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: No, he didn't.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: It depends on where you make the tackle.
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: He didn't play great, and I know the conversation is
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: very critical of him, but I do think it's worth
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: saying he led the team in defensive stops, which, again,
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: a stop is when there's a negative EPA play, when
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: you basically put the offense off schedule. So I think
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: he did it seven times in the game. So I
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: think it's a little bit of a mixed bag. And
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: I think some of the discourse has been a little
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: too harsh on him. So that's why I.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: Didn't realize it was out there. Mike Gill, you know,
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: asked me that.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: He said he said his listeners, you know, from 97.3 SPN.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: He had three listeners saying, when are they going to
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: get Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: In there? And I was shocked. I was like, are
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: we really that? I mean, come on now.
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: It was all over Twitter that people were saying. And
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: a lot of it was because N'Kobe Dean did so
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: well this weekend. I mean, he played unbelievably. So they're
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: just like, they should have extended. I mean, that's a
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: lot of it was that, or when's Trotter going to be,
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: there was a lot, but I, I think that some
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: of his play was underrated. I'm just putting it out.
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, there were some issues definitively, but a little underrated.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that the Eagles were, will not be
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: competing for a Super Bowl this year. I don't want
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: people to twist my next words, but it feels like
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: they wasted last year with their offensive issues. They really
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: wasted a shot to win it again because that defense
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: was playing at such an elite level. And I know
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: they gave up a couple of plays against the Niners.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Everybody does. The Niners are just going to figure out ways.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: You know, they give up the trick play. They give
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: up that long pass to what, Juwan Jennings, I think
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: it was. But in general, they only allowed What was
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: the final score of that game?
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: 24-19, right?
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: For the Commanders you're talking about? No, no.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about the playoff game last year.
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: Oh, the Niners game.
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: It was 24-19, if I'm not mistaken. So, yes, that
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: was a little too many points to that team. But, again,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: we know Shane has a lot.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: Of the best. They had a really, really good defense
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: last year.
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, they did.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: They had a championship-level defense last year.
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: And they should be this year too.
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: You just brought in the Kobe and I just think
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: about how much of a difference he made and then
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: having Jalen Phillips healthy Yeah.
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: It's fun to reminisce a little bit, but it's a shame.
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: It is a shame. We didn't talk about Q, but
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: he also had very similar stats. I mean, we would
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: just say that. There were very similar stats to Reek Willen.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Cool.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: Our new stat, we're going to talk about DVOA, Sam,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to let you fire away on how
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: we put our heads together and figured we needed to
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: get this involved in our, in our show.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And I think this is also a point where
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: I'm like, if anybody has any questions about any of
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: the stats we use and why we use them, why
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: they're important, like, please comment. I've tried to respond as
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: much as I can to, you know, explain things and
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: it makes it more enjoyable for everybody. So that, This
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: is an open call. If you want to comment and
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: ask about something, please, please do. But let's try to
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: explain the new one first.
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, you can email Sam.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: Through us by emailing inside the birds at gmail.com and
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: just direct your question for Sam.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, the reason why advanced stats are fun
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: is because they are, you know, a different look at
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: the game, but they can be really confusing and they,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: they're worth explaining all of them. So yes, this new
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: one defensive adjusted value over average, it measures how efficiently
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: a team performs compared to league average. It evaluates every
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: play within the situation, down distance, field position, time score it,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: but it also adjusts for opponent quality, right? So a
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: run against a bad team for 20 yards is maybe
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: valued the same as a run against a good team
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: for 10. Like it, it values that in there. Yep. Um,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: Overall DVOA is normalized so that 0% represents the league average,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: but an important distinction, it does not do that for
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: rushing and passing. And that's where team rank is way
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: more important. And very similarly to EPA, positive is good
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: for offense and negative is good for defense. So let's
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: take a second and talk about the Eagles through two weeks.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Really quickly to add to what you said. I think
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: that one of the, Better things.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: About DVOA is how you.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Said it evaluates every play within its situation. So, like,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: how often do we see a team is losing by
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: 24 points or whatever, 17, 24, fourth quarter? This defense
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: shifts to, like, prevent, and then the quarterback just starts
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: peppering the field with all these high percentage passes because
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: nobody's got, right? And then it looks like the quarterback
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: had a good game, right? DVOA is intended to say
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: this is not a relevant– Correct.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: And it would not give the same kind of credit
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: for doing that if the game were tied.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: Whereas EPA values them the same.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: Right, right.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: If EPA, you throw a 50-yard pass and you're down
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: by 30 points, it doesn't matter. That's great because your
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: expected ability to score on a 50-yard pass is going
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: to be through the roof.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: You want to have the field in one play.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: Right. And that's where context matters more here.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: Great. So go ahead.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's talk about the Eagles DVOA through week two.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: Their total is plus 6.7% on offense and plus 2.6%
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: on defense. And that's 11th and 17th respectively. Their passing
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: offense is plus 32%, which sounds really good, but it's
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: only 12th in the league. And then their defense is
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: plus 16.3, which sounds really bad, but it's around average
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: at 18th. And then their rushing offense is minus 11%,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: which sounds bad, is bad, at 23rd. And the defense
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: is minus 8.1%, which is around the league average at 19th. Right.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: So don't be discouraged if you're listening and you're like, wow,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: their defense is only 17th and 18th and 19th, even
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: though they've generally played well. Remember, this is against two
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: bad teams, and that counts against the formula. It's not
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: the Eagles' fault they haven't played a good uh, offensive team.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: So it doesn't mean that when they play the bears
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: on Monday and we'll see.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: What their quarterback situation, we'll see what the, but.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: You know, obviously they got the Rams at the Jags,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: some better offensive teams coming up. And if the Eagles
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: play the same game, right.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: And have the same set, then their, their DVO, a
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: will improve.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: And I would like to talk a little bit about
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: the distinction between EPA and DVO, a little bit more
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: in detail. Yes. Um, so, Just a reminder, EPA is
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: how much did each play change the team's expected points. Again, very,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: very sensitive to big plays, whether that be turnovers, explosives, sacks, touchdowns, safeties,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: whatever it is. That is a big part of it.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: But it measures the value of the results of a
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: singular play in the grand scheme of everything. DVOA is
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: how efficiently did the team perform compared with average performance.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: in same situations against similar competition. So it evaluates the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: quality of the performance relative to the expectation. Yes. But importantly,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: when they disagree, it can indicate that one unit produced
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: a few high impact plays without consistent efficiency, or conversely,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: consistently succeeded without generating high value outcomes.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Like when Saquon Barkley has a 42-yard run but finishes
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: with 84 yards because he only averaged two yards per
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: run in every other carry?
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: So you would see the EPA be a lot higher,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: but maybe the DVOA not as high.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: I know that NFL people who I speak to, coaches, evaluators,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: they lean far more toward DVOA than EPA. And I'm
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: not saying that they don't take EPA. Seriously, I'm just
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: saying because of the situation.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah. to more contextual analysis. So I, I agree. So
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: I just wanted to kind of compare EPA to DVOA,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: you know, so the offense is a minus 0.01 on
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: a 14th in the league for EPA and then DVOA
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: plus 6.7%, which is 11. So it's, it's slightly above average.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's kind of what you're getting with both passing.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, you're 14th in the league and then an
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: EPA and 12th in DVOA.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: It's, again, slightly above average, and it's a clear offensive strength.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: And then you look at the rushing, you get 15th
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: in EPA and 23rd in DVOA. And that is below average,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: at least in the DVOA side of it.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: Right. And I love this, right?
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: Because this is what makes the difference in the Jalen
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Hurts part of the rushing offense, where EPA counts it, correct?
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: They count the scrambles?
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: Okay. DVOA counts everything situationally.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: So that's why DVOA being minus 11 and only 23rd
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: rushing offense is more reflective of what the Eagles really
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: are as a rushing offense.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: Right. And so when we talk about the defense, they're
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: plus 0.01, which is tied for 20th. And then they're
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: plus 2.6%, which is 17th. So it's, I mean, slightly
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: below average results. That's what I'd say. You look at
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: the passing. I mean, they're tied 15th in EPA and
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: 18th in DVOA. So they're about league average in both.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: They are, you know, in rushing plus 0.02, which is
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: 24th in EPA and minus 8.1%, which is 19th. So
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: it's really interesting because you look at that and you say,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: that's pretty good. And you're a minus. You told me
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: to look out for minus. That's good. But no, this
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: is one where you need to look at the team rank,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: which is below average.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: So like in a lot of cases, they tend to agree,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: but there are some important ones where they disagree. And
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: then you kind of pick and choose.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: Which one you think is more contextual.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 3: Exactly.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Good stuff.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Well, I think for us going forward, we're going to
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: also use DVOA when you put your charts together and
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: really see where they agree and disagree and the story
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: that they tell about the Eagles in their season.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: Exactly. And that's the important thing of not relying on
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: just one stat, right? You have to look at it entirely.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: And the one good thing about DVOA is it looks
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: at the whole picture holistically. And I think that is
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: a really good statistic. And I'm really glad we're incorporating
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: it here.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: I call it a good system of checks and balances
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: where you can say something's not right with that. And
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: then the other one validates it because it may see
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: something different. Or you're like, hey, this is what's going on.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Both agree. That makes sense.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: Exactly.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: Awesome.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Sam, that was very thorough. I'm excited to delve more
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: into DVOA as we go forward. We'll get some rankings,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: more rankings, and we'll continue to add to.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: Inside the Data. Great job with the charts.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: In our next episode this week, we will preview the
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears game.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: And listen, we know that there's a lot going on
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: with the Bears, the quarterback situation.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: This is a data-based preview, so we will get you
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: the inside numbers there on the Bears and the Eagles
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: and how they match up.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. You have been watching
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.