Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Mike Castle Stone X | When Politics Moves Prices More Than Supply

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Mike Castle Stone X | When Politics Moves Prices More Than Supply · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's economic D Day, according to administration officials.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: E D Day doesn't really capture the spirit, I think, of what the Trump team is trying to do, which I think is to wax powerful in the face of Iran's frustrating persistence.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: There's a certain word that is conspicuously absent from a lot of the talk about economic D-Day.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to get to that.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: We'll talk about that and the market impact of Friday's big announcement on beef.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you along on Monday, August 24.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: It's a great day here in Kansas City.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: The sun is shining.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: It's warm, but not too hot.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm excited for today's conversation.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: We've got Mike Castle from Stone X back again.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: He was our second guest when we kicked off the show just a few weeks ago, actually.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: And we're sure glad, you know.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like it's a good sign if you have people on and they're willing to come back, you know, and do it a do it a second time.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: So here we are with with Mike Castle today.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: We want to talk about the uh president's announcement with his plans on beef imports.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: And then, of course, the uh Treasury Secretary today had a big announcement, Economic D Day.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna talk through that.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it if I would call it short on details, it's long on subtlety.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: And so there's a lot to discuss in in the Secretary Bessant's uh announcement earlier today.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Glad to have you along.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: If you're not an AgBull subscriber, may I encourage you to visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm to become a premium subscriber.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: All kinds of good stuff over there that you uh that you certainly will enjoy.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get to the news.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: We had export inspections reported today.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans up from the previous week and above year ago.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: Corn inspections were off a little from the previous week, and wheat inspections were less than half the same week last year's tally.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen an awful lot of soybean daily sales reported over the last few weeks.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: I I would expect that may begin to taper off here, but export inspections here up 6.9% on the soybeans over last year.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's that's headed at least in the right direction.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: And let's talk about the markets.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get the tail of the tape here.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: Corn futures shot higher at the opening bell, but quickly came off of the highs.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans were under pressure, posting double-digit losses within an hour of the open.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: And wheat futures were mixed with Chicago a few cents higher and KC under light selling pressure.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Cattle futures did make an attempt at the upside, but stumbled lower, as did lean hogs.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: Rounding into the lunch hour, corn was double digits higher, with soybeans tiptoeing lower, and Chicago wheat also heading downward, cattle extended losses as hogs recovered somewhat.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: Before we talk settlements, let's get to plus 500.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: My squad and I love plus 500 T4 software.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: Real-time quotes and a host of other handy features.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: Plus 500, that's plus 500.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: December corn, 515 and a half.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Good people, up seven cents on the day.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Your November soybeans at 12.24 and a quarter, down 15 and one quarter cents.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean meal was higher, bean oil was lower.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: Your Chicago wheats, let's look at the December, 6.99 and 12 at the settlement, up just a quarter cent.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: And over to the KC December wheat, 767 and one quarter.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: That's down five and a quarter cents on the day.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: Checking the livestocks, October feeder cattle 5.37 and one half lower, 318.27 and a half.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: October fats 213.60.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: That's down$4.32 and a half.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: And December lean hog futures down a nickel$71.47 and one half, although the October contract was up all of 25 cents at 81.12 and one half.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: I want to talk about the announcement from President Trump, and I'll lay out Weissmeyer did a pretty decent write-up.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: I stole the paragraph from him.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just going to read it to you in a moment here.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: But I want to talk about the market implications of this announcement and moving forward.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: What does this look like for policy as far as the import and export of uh good old-fashioned American beef?
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: And with that, very, very pleased to bring in Mike Castle from Stonex, a second time offender here on Xbox in the afternoon.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: Castle, welcome back.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: So good to see you.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: How are you doing, buddy?
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: Doing great.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: Good to be back.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: Outstanding.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: You know, but before we dig into this beef news and off to the don't say China news, let's we're, I mean, we got a market going in the corns, buddy.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yield expectations from ProFarmers Crop Tour last week came in far below what USDA was thinking.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: And it's showing up in the markets here, isn't it?
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Big follow-through.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we got the yield estimates released after the close on Friday, so kind of expected to see that strength.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: You know, when we started trade again this week, I checked last night, saw it going up immediately, beans off like a nickel.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: You know, kind of obviously had the opposite direction on the soybean side, a little bigger than USDA.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: But I think, you know, the yield estimate itself at 173.2 is, in my opinion, likely to be one of the lowest that we see this year.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: I certainly don't think USDA will get that low.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: But I think what's more meaningful is, you know, all of the samples that we got from the field, all of the images we got of the actual issues there, the materialization of these, you know, issues of extreme heat during pollination, this, you know, prime examples of you know serious tip back problems to where the plant itself looks good, but you didn't get that kernel fill.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: So, overall, I mean, there are certainly questions, I think, on the yield side of things.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: I do think we could see USDA go lower from here.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: But really, the thing that's underpinning all of this is the really massive strength on the demand side of the equation, which just inherently means we have less wiggle room if you do have a supply problem.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: So even if you only saw USDA shave off, you know, a small amount from their existing 180.7, it still has a notable impact on the balance sheet.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: How do how do the funds treat this rally in corn?
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: Could it uh well, because you know, there's there would be the camp that says, Oh, she's going higher and and it's never turning back, and then there's the other camp that might say, Well, she's a flash in the pan.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: We better get something done here.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: Where do you think the trade is gonna fall on this?
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's somewhat split.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Like obviously, you've seen a pretty significant rally, you've seen big fund length.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: Some are obviously gonna, you know, see that sell signal, for example, when we took out that previous high close from early May.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Some people are gonna kind of get around that level and say, all right, let's take some profits and call it good.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: Others may be entering the market at that, right?
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of the big question is how much additional fund buying do you see with the fact that we're already sitting pretty long at this point?
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: But getting out that, you know, out of that range, moving past that prior, you know, corrective high certainly does open, you know, the table for an additional move here.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: But there's obviously plenty that could kind of change that.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: I do think from a sentiment perspective, that really weak yield estimate, it kind of, you know, what we've seen going on fundamentally here lately is probably getting as closest to like the most bullish sentiment we're gonna see this year.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we'll get USDA's you know, September yield estimate here in a couple of weeks.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: That'll kind of you know set the tone, so to speak, here moving forward on what we can expect from them, at least on the supply side.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: And even this afternoon's crop conditions, I think will be interesting to watch.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: Because you have to remember at the end of the day, like these are in theory objective measurements, but it are it's people that are putting together these estimates, right?
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: And they just watched, you know, all these you know fields on social media with the various issues that we saw, whether that was from the extreme heat, excessive wetness, whatever it is, you know, based on where you're sitting.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: But if you did see a notable drop in crop conditions this afternoon, that may be kind of an indicator that the USDA is feeling a little more, you know, I don't want to say bullish, obviously that's not how they frame things, but maybe feeling a little worse about yield prospects.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: So I do think today's publication will be, you know, somewhat telling of what we can expect from that moving forward.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: December corn finished well off the highs.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: We we popped all the way up to 524 and a quarter around lunchtime and then wound up at 5.15 and a half, almost 10 cents lower.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: Any idea what does that tell us anything that we drop almost a dime from the the noon-ish high of the day?
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: I think you're kind of getting a combination of selling pressure from number one, the U.S.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: farmer, number two, the Brazilian farmer, and then number three, again, some of these funds, especially the ones who have been holding length, you know, or bought in here at any time that we've seen this big move higher.
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Again, just kind of taking some profits, especially looking at whatever technical metrics you like to look at.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: We are sitting kind of overbought.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: We're sitting kind of on the upper bound, however, you want to look at it.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: And that does kind of often act as kind of a sell signal for a lot of these funds.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: And at the same time, there are kind of some downside pressures elsewhere.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, soybeans fell off somewhat aggressively here today.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: I do think that kind of has some spillover effect.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: Even wheat, briefly today, had a bit of a sell-off, you know, on a headline between Russia and Ukraine, maybe resuming talks.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't last long.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, it takes two to tango when it comes to actually resuming flows through the Black Sea.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: But overall, I do think, you know, some outside pressure can certainly act as a bit of a drag as well.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: I was a little concerned for soybeans for a bit, and then we ended as corn ended off the highs, beans ended off the lows.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: We wound up with the Novi at uh 1224, up from the low of 1218.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: Now, that doesn't that I I imagine that feels like a bigger jump than it actually was to me, but uh I I found it encouraging that that at some point November beans said, you know what, this is low enough.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna we're gonna dip back higher.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, truthfully, I think a lot of this kind of comes back to Scott Besson's press conference this afternoon.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, you started out, you know.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: I mentioned overnight we saw beans kind of lower out of the gate, which wasn't a huge shock given the you know yield estimate we saw out after the close on Friday, being above USDA, kind of showing that potential for a solid soybean crop still out there.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: But we really started selling off more aggressively as you started to see kind of rumors and leaks of what was going to be announced this afternoon.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: Because at the end of the day, what's really been so supportive of U.S.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: soybeans here is this return of Chinese buying, right?
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you mentioned we've had a lot of big daily sales.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: Our new crop soybean sales cumulatively are at their highest in four years.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: We're crushing significantly more soybeans than we were four years ago.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: So that means more than it did at that time.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: So overall, I mean, we have shifted to a much more positive fundamental situation on soybeans, but a lot of that is predicated on China following through with more purchases.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously, you know, the I guess announcement of the US trying to target third-party countries for dealing with Iran to try and ramp up the economic pressure on them.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: China's kind of the elephant in the room.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's really, I would say, you know, I don't know if the biggest financial lifeline is the right term, but if you just look at the dollar value of Iran's exports, China is by far the top destination.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, by multiple.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: So they're kind of the ones really with the most at stake as it comes to that.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I think, you know, again, with a lot of this being funds who are already coming into this long, maybe recognizing that risk, trying to take some profits here, and just go ahead and sell off in case we did see something bearish come out of that announcement.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: China did just start auctioning state-owned reserves, though, as I recall.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: Does that figure in at all to to maybe some of the timing of this?
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: Does I don't know if you care to speculate on what the president might be thinking or his advisors, but I don't know.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it it might come at a pretty decent time when there's a little bit of certainty that they're gonna have to buy something at some point.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think you know, we have seen them step up their auctions of state reserves, but again, this is kind of to refill their, you know, effectively reserves with U.S.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: soybeans because they store better.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: We typically ship them drier.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously I'm biased, but you know, U.S.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: soybean quality uh is top-notch.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: But the reality is we are more expensive than South America.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: There is no reason for them to be buying from us economically, it's really politically driven, and they wouldn't be making these purchases, at least not to this scale, if they were not trying to buy political favor.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: And really, the thing that put that into perspective for me was just looking at the drop in the dollar value of China's exports to the US from 2024 into 25.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we saw the Trump administration come in with a pretty strong focus on targeting China and that imbalance of trade with the US and China.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: And we saw China's exports to the states fall to its lowest level since 2009.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: It was down$131 billion year on year.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: So at the end of the day, it pains me to say this as an economist, but again, this decision is not being made based on economics.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: If you just looked at what landed values to you know China cost, whether it's Argentina, Brazil, or the US, we are the most expensive, but they're still buying from us.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: They still have plenty of soybeans, especially up front.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: They have something of a glut.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: They're effectively auctioning off these reserves to make space for what's coming, not because they kind of need more.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: So, really, that's kind of my concern, you know, when we talk about trying to target the countries that do business with Iran at a large scale, again, China being the top one, is if they lose that political incentive, right?
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_00: Does that mean they kind of start walking back on some of these purchases?
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: That would be kind of the concern.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Thankfully, I don't think that has happened to this point.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Bessett's announcement was fairly, I don't want to say vague, but we're not mentioning China specifically, even though that's obviously the country with the most at stake here.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: I do think they're being careful with that because they recognize that political balance.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously, Xi is scheduled to come to the US a month from today.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a lot at stake in that next month.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: I do think China is going to want to keep making purchases to show progress ahead of that meeting.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously, we're still a long way from 25 million tons, but even if they don't get that close to 25 million tons, you're talking about a much tighter U.S.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: balance sheet.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: So it's still very supportive, even the volumes they've bought to this point.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, I think what they're trying to do is thread the needle and not call China specifically, while also still trying to get, you know, China to enforce some of those, you know, I guess more punitive measures to help cut Iran off economically.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: I I definitely want to get into some of the subtleties around the Bessent announcement today and the implications.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: But but first, let's uh let's you brought a chart.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the uh beef announcement from Friday.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna read from Wiesmeyer here just real quick.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: President Donald Trump on Friday announced a 90-day suspension of out-of-quota tariffs on up to 300,000 metric tons of beef destined for grinding, paired with a claim that the product will be sold at least 25% below current market prices.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: The cattle complex broke hard on the news, and that's where I want to start, Mike.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: Traders sold the headlines, and if I'm looking at it, I had to pull up a one-year chart, but fats and feeders both trading at that level from November, December time period, and and at that time, we had just sort of come up out of a pretty deep trough.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_01: We we've got a ways to go lower after that.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now, nothing went limit down in response to this news, which is good, I guess.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: But I'd just like to see where you want to take this, take this end of the conversation and what sticks out to you about this issue, buddy.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, one thing I mean, I was just chatting with one of our livestock brokers right before I came in here, and you mentioned the chart, you know, looking at a one-year chart.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: He was pulling back like a six-year chart.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um and we had kind of been in this like you know, six-year bull market, and now from a really long-term perspective, we're kind of breaking that to the downside.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: And then once you get the lead contract being the October, it looks even worse.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: So I do think, you know, your like managed money types that are looking at that are certainly feeling a lot more pessimistic about cattle prices specifically, which I do think is kind of indicative of just overall a negative sentiment.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: Fundamentals are still not necessarily improving that much, right?
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: Like we got cattle on Feed Friday that was, I mean, just looking at it objectively, a bullish report, right?
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_00: A supportive report.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: You saw this huge miss on placements, like below even the bottom end estimate.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: In theory, that would be bullish, but obviously we're not seeing prices respond that way.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_00: And I really do think a lot of it is just extremely headline driven with this one-two punch of the border reopening today, officially in Douglas, Arizona, for feeder cattle imports from Mexico, which longer term is certainly you know more structurally bearish, but it's not like it has this overnight impact that dictates a big sell-off the day it opens, right?
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: You're talking about like 700 cattle coming across today.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: But then again, going back to the import side, that's kind of the second one here of seeing that headline of, I guess, just overall government intervention that is aiming to explicitly lower the price of beef, that certainly weighs on sentiment, right?
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: And we've seen kind of weakness in the cash markets.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_00: Anything it is in beef and cattle right now has been kind of ugly here lately.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: But going back to you know, just that fact, like this shouldn't be a huge surprise.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: Like that chart that I put together is something I've kind of been following here for several years, where the gap between what the US is producing beef-wise and consuming is the widest it's ever been, right?
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen demand just absolutely skyrocket in the last few years.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: Every dietary trend right now is maximized protein, right?
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: Government recommendations are shifting to higher protein.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of folks, I know myself, my favorite protein is beef.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm part of this problem.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_00: And because we've seen the production side walk back here, we've had to make up that gap with imports.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_00: And that's kind of been the case.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: We've been importing record amounts of beef here the last couple of years.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's what that blue line there is signifying, kind of again, reaching the highest it's ever been.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_00: So this is kind of already happening behind the scenes.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: This is just kind of allowing what we're already bringing in from Brazil to not be subject to that above quota tariff.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: And does that really make a meaningful impact?
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: Honestly, I don't know that it will.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think, especially, you know, they're claiming they're gonna sell it 25% below market.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't, I have no clue where they're coming up with that.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: The only thing I can think is the above quota tariff on Brazil is 26.4%.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe someone along the way said, hey, if we remove that, the price is magically gonna go there and traders aren't gonna take advantage of that you know spread.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: But again, I don't think that's gonna happen.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, they're kind of trying to throw whatever they can to fix it here.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: And in the short term, importing more beef is kind of the question, but you still need to see the rebuilding of the herd, and that takes a long time, right?
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's not something that can kind of be fixed overnight here.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and when we're talking about 300,000 metric tons of beef as I understand it, that's that's not necessarily a goal or or a mark on the fence post that we're trying to get to.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's more of a of a cap.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm trying to think, well, where are we gonna where are we gonna get this from?
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Brazil, Argentina, they've already got the the tariff stuff worked out.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I mean, it we're on to lesser producers now.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: It almost feels like a whole huge announcement over something that really might not be all that impactful for for the consumer.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I would agree 100%.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: And really, I think the only one that makes sense to see much more from is Brazil.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned Argentina, they got their quota increased, they added another 80K on there at 100,000 for 26.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: If they did ramp up significantly, like, and you know, they were able to surpass that quota volume in the next 90 days.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_00: In theory, that would mean the additional volumes wouldn't be subject to that 26.4% tariff.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: But I don't think they'll make it in that next 90.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: Days.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: So I would say the bigger risk is seeing that get extended.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: You know, again, they kind of start with 90 days.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: How are you going to get an additional 300k on top of what you're normally bringing in in that amount?
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: Difficult question.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: But again, going back to the origins, I don't they've been very kind of cagey about it, but like Canada and Mexico do not have any of these tariffs, right?
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_00: They're exempt under USMCA.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that stuff flows in okay.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: Australia, they have free trade agreement specifically on this, you know, even if they go above their typical volumes, they can kind of come in for free.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: So it really is from a big producer perspective, just Brazil and Argentina that can stand to benefit from this.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: And in terms of size and just scale, Brazil's the one that makes sense.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: So effectively, what they're trying to do is remove the tariff on whatever's coming in from Brazil because they are already paying this, right?
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: Brazil does not have their own category like a lot of the other countries do, like Argentina, for example.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: They have 20k a year.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: Brazil just falls into the other, you know, all other countries that don't have their own categories, which is like 52,000 metons a year.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: And that was filled in like January.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: So in theory, they've been having to pay that above quota tariff all year.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: And this would just remove that possibility.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: So again, it's it kind of maybe cheapens up the import of Brazilian beef, but I don't know that it really necessarily changes the volume that comes in in the next 90 days by a material amount.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: You know, maybe it does increase, but again, it's not like it's something that's gonna magically drop beef prices by 25%.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_01: You you mentioned the US MCA, the US Mexico-Canada agreement, and kind of you know how this really doesn't have really doesn't impact that that aspect of the of this beef trade here.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I'm I'm stammering because I'm trying to figure out.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't even think this through, but uh the president kind of stuck his thumb in the eye of Canada.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: Was it today or or over the weekend, imposing some new tariffs on on steel and automobiles and the like?
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: Mike, I thought we were supposed to be negotiating USMCA and coming to friendly terms and working some things out.
• 24:25
  SPEAKER_01: Now you're gonna stick your thumb in the eye.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't get it.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_01: Help me.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I wish I could, but I would say unfortunately, I've kind of been in the same boat.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: I I thought we were done with this, right?
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move on.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: We just play nice with Canada.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: And what's frustrating that from like an ag perspective is thankfully a lot of what really matters in the ag sector has been exempt because of again being in the USMCA.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_00: I guess from my understanding, the Section 338 tariffs, like the new ones coming in, don't have those like blanket exemptions by sector.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: Truthfully, I'd have to do some like digging to fully understand those details.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_00: But at this point, from my understanding, everything on the ag side specifically is still being left out of these tariffs.
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_00: But what becomes the risk now is if Canada chooses to retaliate, right?
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: On the stuff that we're importing from them or the other direction, right?
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: The stuff they're importing from us.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I think they announced September 8th is their deadline to you know make a decision on how they're going to respond.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_00: So thankfully, that does at least give us two weeks to make a deal.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_00: And hopefully that's what happens.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: Like, if there's one thing I could say about just like the ongoing drama that we've seen with US and Canada, you know, trade relations as it relates to ag, is all of North America has built this unbelievably efficient supply chain in the ag sector to where we really don't operate as three different countries.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: We all kind of operate just as one space logistically, and it is unbelievably efficient, and all of us benefit from it.
• 25:59
  SPEAKER_00: So, in my opinion, there's just no sense in doing this, especially from the ag market perspective.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_00: Think about the inputs we get from Canada.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, potash is top of mind, but we also bring in a lot of anhydrous ammonia from them.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: So, from an input perspective, we're at risk.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_00: The output perspective, they're our top destination for ethanol exports.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico is far and away our top destination for feed grains.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_00: It does not make sense to me why we keep doing this.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: In my opinion, we should just enjoy the free trade that we've developed here and kind of move along, especially it's a lot of the same companies operating on both sides, right?
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: They've built this entire system based on their ability to do that.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: So hopefully, this is just upfront noise, and we get some kind of agreement here in these next two weeks before we see Canada you know formally announce their retaliation.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and it it does seem that the Canada is able to survive somehow without good old-fashioned American bourbon up there.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, if they can make it without that, you know, who knows what they're willing to hold out on in the in the face of this sort of a thing.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: We're still are we still friends with Mexico?
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh how are relations with Mexico right now?
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: Give me something.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_00: Give me something, anything.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, obviously, we did reopen the border to feeder cattle imports today, so I like to think that that is a sign that we are still friends, right?
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and hopefully we can avoid bringing any you know trade issues with them back up and maybe focus on the bigger issues at hand.
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: I wonder if we'll put a tariff on hinges since we opened the uh the border there, but um bump.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: Let's uh let's talk about the other chart that you brought for us about the Bessent announcement.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_01: Countries have been given defined but confidential deadlines to close identified banking, shipping, aviation, energy, and financial channels.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_01: Those that fail to comply, Bessent warned will face unilateral U.S.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: action and potentially lose access to the dollar system.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_01: These boys aren't playing around.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: The Iranian situation has gone on for, I think, probably quite a bit longer than our dear president thought it might have.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: And here we are dealing with all of the ramifications of that and shipping.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I, you know, we've mentioned it.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: How do you how do you threaten China without using the word China?
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: I I think they've done it here.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_01: China purchased more than 80% of Iran's oil shipped in 2025.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: That according to Reuters, about 1.4 million barrels per day last year.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: There's quite a bit at stake here.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: And you mentioned President Xi coming in September to visit with the with our president and with other officials here.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: And we we we need to be, I don't know if we need to be friends with them, but we certainly don't need to be enemies with them in order to keep trade ties smooth.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and obviously from the ag market perspective, we would all like to maintain that friendship.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: Again, you know, we've already mentioned the impact it's had on the soybean side of things.
• 29:01
  SPEAKER_00: Keep in mind they've also allegedly agreed to 17 billion in non-soyag purchases.
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_00: So everyone is still kind of waiting to see something actually happen.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: You know, corn is kind of whatever comes to everyone's mind just because that was the top category the last time we had those kind of you know volumes of non-soyag exports to China.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: So there's certainly a huge amount at stake on the demand side of the equation here.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, you note that China buys the vast majority of Iran's oil exports.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's important to note that it's not state-owned companies doing that.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: These are what they call their teapot refiners, these are privately owned companies.
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_00: And that makes that compliance a lot more complicated.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: It makes it that much harder, right?
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: The government can't necessarily crack down on it as easily because Iran has obviously been very economically isolated and sanctioned for decades at this point.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_00: And what that means is they've gotten really good at getting around them, you know, talking about sanctions or whatever punitive measures we could put out there.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, I'll draw an example from the fertilizer markets.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_00: This is something that we've followed for years.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: Is Iran is, you know, the world's, depending on whether China's in the market or not, number three or four urea exporter.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_00: How is that possible?
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_00: If they're so heavily sanctioned, they're so cut off, they're so isolated.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: The reality is they just have gotten good at getting around things, like specifically the urea side of things, a country like Oman on paper exports about double what they can physically produce every year because it's not from Oman.
• 30:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's Iran producing it and then selling it under the name of other countries.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: So that's just kind of one example, and I'm sure there are much more sophisticated examples, but they are very good at getting around sanctions, and obviously the buyers of their products are the ones that help them do that.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_00: So I think the administration kind of recognizes that that's what they're trying to crack down on.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_00: I do think that's easier said than done.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: But I do think what'll be interesting is to see what specific entities outside of Iran they try to target with sanctions.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: You know, when it comes to Iran itself, obviously they've sanctioned just about everything they can at this point.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: But overall, the shipment and then, you know, receiving of whatever product it is, crude oil, obviously being the biggest, how do you get that to be enforced is really the big question.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: And how far they're willing to go with that, I think is going to be kind of, again, that fine line that they're trying to walk of they know that it's Chinese companies that they have to crack down on in order to accomplish this, but they also don't want to risk, I guess, upsetting China, right?
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_00: Going too far into something that could be seen as you know, overstepping a certain line and then seeing China, you know, trade relations kind of sour here, right?
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_00: It is the world's two largest economies.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, my focus is more on the ag side of things, but the entire global economy it kind of is downstream from what happens between the US and China.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and I think there's an element in here that I think is actually pretty slick, if you'll uh no, I intended that Bund.
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty slick.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_01: The uh the idea of these these teapot manufacturers.
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe the target isn't the the state refineries, the you know, financial resources of those state refineries in China, but rather the teapot guys, the smaller dudes who are maybe able because they're a little smaller, they can, like you say, source Iranian crude from maybe Indonesia or Oman, like you mentioned, or other smaller nations.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_01: If if we can put the squeeze on them, then maybe we at least slow the flow and and exert a little bit of pressure on China.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_01: But what's interesting here, and this is the slick part, the approach can produce more compliance than immediate mass designations.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_01: In order, in other words, they're they're keeping it kind of quiet.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_01: They're not naming names because it allows foreign governments to retreat without publicly appearing to capitulate.
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: This again, according to Jim Weismeyer, reduces the danger that several large banks are suddenly cut off from dollar clearing at the same time.
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: This is there's a subtle hand in this approach here, Mike.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, I think that makes sense.
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I honestly think that's probably the most effective way to go about it, right?
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_00: Especially because, you know, you mentioned it kind of allows countries to be able to do this without necessarily making it a public thing, right?
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone in politics cares about saving face, right?
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_00: Everything is about optics.
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a good way to kind of allow folks to wean themselves off of this a little bit behind the scenes.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe, again, a lot of that intention is kind of targeted at China, right?
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_00: They both sides obviously have an interest of in maintaining that public relationship.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: They both need to look strong to their own bases, and you know, maybe this is kind of a way we can do that.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I do think it's gonna be, I don't know, it'll be interesting to get more details on what actually comes out here.
• 34:08
  SPEAKER_00: And it sounds like today was really kind of more of a, I guess, warning shot of kind of what's to come.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_00: So certainly I don't think we're gonna be done talking about this after just one press conference, but I do think it kind of speaks to just the complexity of the situation, and I think that's kind of important to keep in mind because of just how big of an impact it can have, not just on soybean fundamentals, but you know, the broader ag complex.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_01: We spent an awful lot of time talking about China as an importer, but you mentioned earlier, and I know you've got a chart for this as well, the the dollar value of Chinese exports to the US down sharply.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: Can we discuss that for just a moment?
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_01: What's the story there?
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_00: In my opinion, once I just dug up those numbers and you know put together that chart, that is really what made it finally click for me of why we're seeing such aggressive purchasing from China.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: Because again, as an economist, I'm looking at things in dollars and cents terms.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_00: We are too expensive, they shouldn't be buying from us, is what economics would tell you.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_00: But then obviously we've seen them come through with very large-scale purchases, and we've felt that impact in the balance sheet.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen prices rise because of it.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I really think that chart is what drove it home for me.
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is really, in the grand scheme of things, a very minor thing for China to overpay on.
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: Again, looking at that chart, you saw their exports to the US drop$131 billion year over year.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_00: Think about if they bought that full 25 million met tons.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's 919 million bushels.
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_00: Imagine they overpaid an average of 50 cents a bushel on that entire volume.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_00: You're talking about less than half of a billion dollars that they're overpaying to potentially regain access of 131 billion on the other side of it.
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, it makes perfect sense, right?
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why I think soybeans specifically have been really the biggest like political tool here.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_00: I think from China's perspective, you know, they don't necessarily care about the fundamentals.
• 36:15
  SPEAKER_00: They want to show a dollar value progress.
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_00: And what's the easiest way to do that?
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's soybeans, right?
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's the highest dollar value per bushel of any of the crops they're going to be importing.
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, if you just look at U.S.
• 36:27
  SPEAKER_00: ag trade to China, it's very soy heavy because, again, it's just a more expensive commodity.
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_00: So I really think a lot of this is just them trying to show good faith ahead of that September meeting, trying to show that they are working on increasing their dollar value of imports to the US to, you know, effectively narrow that trade gap.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: But at the end of the day, what they really have their eyes set on is that full resumption of access to the U.S.
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_00: consumer market because of how much they stand to gain from doing so.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: How much of the the dip in that bar on the far right of that chart there is due to fertilizer?
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: Because I know that that China kind of shut the spigot on urea and phosphate exports.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_01: You I've you've got Lindville down the hall from you there.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_01: What do you what are you hearing coming out of that office?
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_01: How much of this is due to fertilizer, the non-export of fertilizers?
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that one would not be because we have tariffs in place on Chinese fertilizer from 2018.
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: So we have kind of stopped bringing in urea and phosphate from they have honestly been a big part of why the urea market's corrected as much as it has in the last, I don't know, I guess three months, whatever it's been here over the summer.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: We have seen a notable correction, and a huge part of that is the return of Chinese exports.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, very significant volumes, and most of that's gonna move basically between now and the end of the year.
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, okay.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_01: Very good.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, it's it seems like a good strategy here, and we we need to he's it it feels like the president is is stepping more carefully with China than he is with Canada.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta go back to that thumb in the eye thing again here, and we're uh it's interesting how how different trading partners are dealt with in different ways, isn't it?
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_00: It is, yeah.
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I I just I just feel like it's kind of unnecessary to be picking on Canada at this point.
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's probably oversimplifying it, but you know, it does make sense to see the caution they're using when it comes to China because again, a lot is at stake.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_00: This is kind of a long-term game that they're playing, so it's smart to be, you know, somewhat cautious, somewhat I guess measured in your approach here to try and outmaneuver one another.
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_00: But again, what are we doing with Canada?
• 38:47
  SPEAKER_00: Why can't we just let the sleeping dogs lie?
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there's lots to uh lots to unravel here, and I'm sure we'll hear more about all of these things as the uh the time goes.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_01: I I appreciate you sharing all this stuff with us.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_01: This has been some really great information.
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_01: I I think we're gonna head for the exit here before too long.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: You're in you're in KC, though, right?
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: Aren't you in Kansas City as well?
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_00: That is correct.
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, nice day today, huh?
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: I know, yeah.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's getting me ready for fall.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: I know it.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: I was over at the uh the wife and I went to the Nelson the other day on on Friday evening and stepped out the big back doors there, and you kind of look down over the uh the lawn, and you can kind of see you know, Brookside and UMKC in there, and it was cloudy and it was almost cool.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I thought, wow, this is this is living.
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: This is living.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_01: The National Weather Service calling for gusty winds and heavy rainfall to impact the big island of Hawaii.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_01: As a nearby tropical system passes west of the islands from the southwest U.S.
• 39:49
  SPEAKER_01: Rockies and across the Gulf Coast, heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding.
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_01: Severe thunderstorms are expected for areas of the plains, Gulf Coast, and the southeast through Tuesday.
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: Extreme heat lingers for the southern plains and the uh southwest.
• 40:07
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Castle, just a couple of quick things in addition here before we before we go.
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_01: Some items of mild interest.
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_01: August 24 is the date today.
• 40:17
  SPEAKER_01: In the year 79.
• 40:19
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the date is uh disputed by some historian, but in the year 79 A.D., Mount Vesuvius erupted.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_01: Some believe on August 24.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: The cities of Pompeii, Herculaneum, and Stabia were buried in volcanic ash.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: Although, as I said, some believe it it may have been in October.
• 40:38
  SPEAKER_01: Have you ever been to uh to see the the Pompeii stuff?
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_01: It looks crazy.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_01: I've seen plenty of pictures of it.
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_00: No, I have not.
• 40:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think it'd be great to go check it out, but uh, I have not made my way there.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: If I would have known that it was, you know, August 24th was the anniversary.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe I would have looked my flight.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_01: Next year.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_01: Next year.
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_01: My buddy, uh, I have a friend who's been there.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_01: He travels way too much.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what he's got going, but he travels way too much.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: He says that Herculaneum, if you're ever there, is really the one to see rather than Pompeii.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_01: Kind of all the tourists know about Pompeii, but Herculaneum, for some reason, he said was was quite the deal.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_01: 1960 on this date, Cal Ripkin Jr.
• 41:21
  SPEAKER_01: was born.
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's also the birthday of David Chappelle in 1973.
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_01: And let's have a little quiz time here because I do like to to just hassle my guests a little bit.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_01: I like to exploit my guests.
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_01: You you maybe remember this from last time that you were on, but I'd like to play, not quite name that tune, but but finish the lyric.
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, and this might be before your time, so it's completely unfair of me to do this.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_01: 1985.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_01: This was the number one hit August 24, 1985.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'd like for you to finish the lyric.
• 42:01
  SPEAKER_01: It goes like this you don't need money, don't take fame, don't need no credit card to ride this train.
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's strong and it's sudden and it's cruel sometimes, but it might just save your life.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_01: Can you finish the lyric?
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's the power of love.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's the power of love.
• 42:21
  SPEAKER_01: Right, Scott, you got it, brother.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_01: From uh, let's see, number one hit August 24, 1985, of course, from Back to the Future, Huey Lewis and the news.
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Castle from Stone X.
• 42:33
  SPEAKER_01: I can't believe we're the we've been talking this long.
• 42:36
  SPEAKER_01: It it seems like just it seems like just a moment ago we were starting the show, and here we are already.
• 42:41
  SPEAKER_01: Great information today.
• 42:43
  SPEAKER_01: Some good looking charts, too.
• 42:45
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate it, brother, brother.
• 42:47
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you very much.
• 42:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_01: Mike Castle from Stone X.
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'd like to also say thanks to Trade the News for the view behind the quotes.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_01: Look to trade the news.
• 42:58
  SPEAKER_01: News you can use.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's trade the news.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: And one more time, let me direct you to Agbol.com.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_01: You can dig deeper with Ag Bull Intel.
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_01: Take your marketing by the horns with Agbol.
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_01: Visit Agbol.com or 855-737 Farm for the details.
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for watching, everyone.
• 43:17
  SPEAKER_01: Appreciate you on this Monday.
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_01: Jed's back first thing in the morning to start your Tuesday, and then I'll be talking with the cow guy, Scott Shellity, tomorrow afternoon.
• 43:25
  SPEAKER_01: I'll see you then for more Ag Squawk.