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Episode 68 - Decision Making in a Dynamic Enviornment - Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge · Pilot Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge

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  Decision making in a dynamic environment. The common approach to decision making has been
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  through the use of analytical models such as five P three P O O,
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  D A and decide. Good decisions result when pilots gather all available information,
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  review it, analyze the options, rate the options, select a course of
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  action, and evaluate that course of action for correctness. In some situations,
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  there isn't always time to make decisions based on analytical decision making skills. A
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  good example is a quarterback whose actions are based upon a highly fluid and changing
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  situation. He intends to execute a plan, but new circumstances dictate decision making
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  on the fly. This type of decision making is called automatic decision making or
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  naturalized decision making. Refer to Figure seventeen DASH eleven B automatic decision making.
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  In an emergency situation, a pilot might not survive if he or she rigorously
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  applied analytical models to every decision made. There is not enough time to go
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  through all the options. But under these circumstances does he or she find the
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  best possible solution to every problem. For the past several decades, research into
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  how people actually make decisions has revealed that when pressed for time, Experts faced
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  with a task loaded with uncertainty first assess whether the situation strikes them as familiar.
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  Rather than comparing the pros and cons of different approaches, they quickly imagine
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  how one or a few possible courses of action in such situations will play out.
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  Experts take the first workable option they can find. While it may not
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  be the best of all possible choices, it often yields remarkably good results.
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  The terms naturalistic and automatic decision making have been coined to describe this type of
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  decision making. The ability to make automatic decisions holds true for a range of
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  experts, from firefighters to chess players. It appears the expert's ability hinges on
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  the recognition of patterns and consistencies that clarify options in complex situations. Experts appear
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  to make provisional sense of a situation without actually reaching a decision, by launching
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  experience based actions that in turn trigger creative revisions. This is a reflexive type
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  of decision making, anchored in training and experience, and is most often used
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  in times of emergencies, when there is no time to practice analytical decision making.
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  Naturalistic or automatic decision making improves with training and experience, and a pilot
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  will find himself or herself using a combination decision making tools that correlate with individual
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  experience and training operational pitfalls. Although more experienced pilots are likely to make more
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  automatic decisions, there are tendencies or operational pitfalls that come with the development of
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  pilot experience. These are classic behavioral traps into which pilots have been known to
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  fall. More experienced pilots, as a rule, try to complete a flight
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  as planned, please passengers, and meet schedules. The desire to meet these
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  goals can have an adverse effect on safety and contribute to an unrealistic assessment of
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  piloting skills. All experienced pilots have fallen, prey to, or have been
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  tempted by, one or more of these tendencies in their flying careers. These
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  dangerous tendencies or behavior patterns which must be identified and eliminated include the operational pitfalls
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  shown in figure seventeen twelve. Stress management. Everyone is stressed to some degree
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  almost all of the time. A certain amount of stress is good since it
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  keeps a person alert and prevents complacency. Effects of stress are cumulative, and
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  if the pilot does not cope with them in an appropriate way, they can
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  eventually add up to an intolerable burden. Performance generally increases with the onset of
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  stress, peaks, and then begins to fall off rapidly as stress levels exceed
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  a person's ability to cope. The ability to make effective decisions during flight can
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  be impared by stress. There are two categories of stress, acute and chronic.
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  These are both explained in Chapter sixteen Aeromedical factors. Factors referred to as
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  stressors can increase a pilot's risk of error in the flight deck. Refer to
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  Figure seventeen, Dash thirteen. Remember the cabin door that suddenly opened a flight
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  on the Mooney climbing through fifteen hundred feet on a clear sunny day. It
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  may startle the pilot, but the stress would wane when it became apparent the
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  situation was not a serious hazard. Yet, if the cabin door opened an
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  imc conditions, the stress level makes significant impact on the pilot's ability to cope
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  with simple tasks. The key to stress management is to stop, think and
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  analyze before jumping to a conclusion. There is usually time to think before drawing
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  unnecessary conclusions. There are several techniques to help manage the accumulation of life stresses
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  and prevent stress overload. For example, to help reduce stress levels, set
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  aside time for relaxation each day, or maintain a program of physical fitness to
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  prevent stress overload. Learn to manage time more effectively to avoid pressures imposed by
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  getting behind schedule and not meeting deadlines. Use of resources to make infeigned decisions
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  during flight operations. A pilot must also become aware of the resources found inside
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  and outside the flight tech. Since useful tools and sources of information may not
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  always be readily apparent, learning to recognize these resources is an essential part of
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  ADM training. Resources must not only be identified, but a pilot must also
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  develop the skills to evaluate whether there is time to use a particular resource and
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  the impact its use will have upon the safety of flight. For example,
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  the assistance of ATC may be very useful if a pilot becomes lost, but
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  in an emergency situation, there may be no time available to contact ATC internal
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  resources. One of the most underutilized resources may be the person in the right
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  seat, even if the passenger has no flying experience. When approp it to
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  PIC can ask passengers to assist with certain tasks, such as watching for traffic
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  or reading checklist items. Some other ways, a passenger can assist provide information
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  in an irregular situation, especially if familiar with flying. A strange smell or
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  sound may alert a passenger to a potential problem. Confirm after the pilot that
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  the landing gear is down. Learn to look at the altimeter for a given
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  altitude in a dissent, Listen to logic or lack of logic. Also,
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  the process of a verbal briefing, which can happen whether or not passengers or
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  aboard, can help the PIC in the decision making process. For example,
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  assume the pilot provides a loan passenger a briefing of the forecast landing weather before
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  departure. When the Automatic Terminal Information Service ADIS is picked up, the weather
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  has significantly changed. The discussion of this forecast change can lead the pilot to
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  re examine his or her activities and decision making refer to Figure seventeen fourteen.
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  Other valuable internal resources include ingenuity, aviation knowledge, and flying skill. Pilots
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  can increase flight deck resources by improving these characteristics when flying alone. Another internal
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  resource is verbal communication. It has been established that verbal communication reinforces an activity.
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  Touching an object while communicating further enhances the probability and activity has been accomplished.
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  For this reason, many solo pilots read the checklist out loud. When
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  they reach critical items. They touch the switch or control, for example,
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  to ascertain the landing gear is down. The pilot can read the checklist,
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  but if he or she touches the gear handle during the process, a safe
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  extension of the landing gear is confirmed. It is necessary for a pilot to
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  have a thorough understanding of all the equipment and systems in the aircraft being flown.
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  Lack of knowledge, such as knowing if the oil pressure gage is direct
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  reading or uses a sensor, is the difference between making a wise decision or
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  poor one that leads to a tragic error. Checklists are essential flight deck internal
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  resources. They are used to verify the aircraft instruments and systems are checked,
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  set and operating properly, as well as ensuring the proper procedures are performed if
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  there is a system malfunction or in flight emergency. Students reluctant to use checklists
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  can be reminded that pilots at all levels of experience refer to checklists, and
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  that the more advanced the aircraft is, the more crucial checklists become. In
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  addition, the pilots Operating Handbook pH is required to be carried on board the
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  aircraft and is essential for accurate flight planning and resolving in flight equipment malfunctions.
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  However, the most valuable resource a pilot has is the ability to manage workload,
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  whether alone or with others. External resources. Air traffic controllers and flight
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  service specialists are the best external resources during flight. In order to promote the
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  safe, orderly flow of air traffic around airports and along flight routes, the
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  ATC provides pilots with traffic advisories, radar vectors, and assistants in emergency situations.
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  Although it is the PIC's responsibility to make the flight as safe as possible,
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  a pilot with a problem can request assistance from ATC. Refer to figure
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  seventeen Dash fifteen. For example, if a pilot needs to level off,
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  be given a vector or decreased speed, ATC assists end comes integrated as part
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  of the crew. The services provided by ATC cannot only decrease pilot workload,
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  but also help pilots make informed in flight decisions. The flight service stations are
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  air traffic facilities that provide pilot briefing, en route communications via our search and
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  rescue services, assist lost aircraft and aircraft in emergency situations, relay ATC clearances,
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  originate notices to airmen, notem broadcast aviation, weather and National Airspace System
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  and as information, receive and process if OUR flight plans, and monitor Navigational
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  aids naviids. In addition, at selected locations, flight service stations provide en
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  route flight advisory service, flight watch, issue airport advisories, and advise customs
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  and immigration of transporder flights. Selected flight service stations in Alaska also provide TEA
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  web recordings and make weather observations. End of Part five of Chapter seventeen