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AFC North + NFC North Division Previews · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites from the Volume podcast Network. I
0:13
Speaker 1: am Chad Milman. I am your host. We are weeks away,
0:17
Speaker 1: weeks away from the start of the NFL season. Got
0:21
Speaker 1: about thirty six thirty five days or so. For the
0:24
Speaker 1: next few weeks on the Favorites podcast Tuesdays and Thursdays,
0:29
Speaker 1: me and my co host, Professional Batter, my companion, my colleague,
0:35
Speaker 1: my bff, Simon Hunter, We'll be breaking down every single
0:41
Speaker 1: team in every single division in the NFL, team by
0:45
Speaker 1: team since last season. How have they improved? What are
0:49
Speaker 1: their future odds? What are their conference odds, what are
0:52
Speaker 1: their division odds? What are their win totals? How do
0:55
Speaker 1: we feel about each one? Every single team? Think of
1:00
Speaker 1: it as thirty two teams in thirty two days. That's
1:04
Speaker 1: what we are headed towards, folks, public service announcement. Before
1:08
Speaker 1: we even get started. We will spice in some college football,
1:13
Speaker 1: uh during the next few weeks, too likely with our
1:16
Speaker 1: friends Colin Wilson and Stucky And if you are looking
1:20
Speaker 1: for them, you gotta download, you gotta subscribe. They have
1:26
Speaker 1: started a brand newly named podcast Big Bets on campus
1:32
Speaker 1: new feed in Apple Podcasts. Go subscribe, Go rate go review,
1:39
Speaker 1: go download, check it out. Same great podcast is when
1:42
Speaker 1: it was Action Network colleges, only they're so big now
1:46
Speaker 1: they needed their own feed. And don't think, you know,
1:49
Speaker 1: I don't think they're not charging me for that, folks.
1:52
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, what's up? Brother Sad? How are you doing, buddy?
1:58
Speaker 1: Living good? I feel really good? I do. I feel fantastic.
2:04
Speaker 1: Why are you looking at me like that? You look
2:07
Speaker 1: we're doing this in a in a video form. I
2:10
Speaker 1: am super excited today because it's been a long time
2:18
Speaker 1: since you and I just did this podcast without interlopers.
2:23
Speaker 1: It's facts, Chad, and uh, let's not say I'm not
2:26
Speaker 1: enjoying it. It's it's a little more quiet, let's more,
2:28
Speaker 1: a little less stressful, knowing I'll be like, wait for
2:31
Speaker 1: someone else to talk. I'll have to worry about a chat.
2:33
Speaker 1: That's that's the best time here when it's just me
2:34
Speaker 1: and you, buddy, It's just me, you and Matt Mitchell
2:37
Speaker 1: right now, when it does feel more relaxed. I actually,
2:39
Speaker 1: as soon as I was lotting on, I'm like, wow,
2:42
Speaker 1: there's no guest today, and well I love having guests. Um,
2:46
Speaker 1: knowing it's just going to be you and me, going
2:48
Speaker 1: back and forth on football. It feels like the world
2:54
Speaker 1: is right. I do have to bring in Matt Mitchell
2:56
Speaker 1: now though, just because now I really thought about it.
2:58
Speaker 1: How we've not asked him about this whole offloa stadium thing.
3:01
Speaker 1: I mean, I would say of all the fan bases
3:04
Speaker 1: that identify with the football team in their city, Buffalo
3:08
Speaker 1: has gotta be top five. I mean, that is a
3:10
Speaker 1: city for football. So what's the feeling, man Mitchell? What
3:14
Speaker 1: is the feeling knowing that it's looking like a pcent
3:16
Speaker 1: will be taxpayers? I know you don't pay taxes in Buffalo,
3:19
Speaker 1: but are you worried right now about everything's going on
3:21
Speaker 1: in Buffalo? Do you think that team really would leave?
3:23
Speaker 1: My buddies and I builds fans of a certain age.
3:26
Speaker 1: If the Bills announced they were leaving, would be like, ah, few,
3:32
Speaker 1: one last thing, just one last thing in my life
3:35
Speaker 1: to have to care about so much and get so
3:38
Speaker 1: mad about. However, knowing they're not going to do that,
3:42
Speaker 1: it's an interesting situation because as someone that went to
3:45
Speaker 1: Bills games a lot at that same stadium as a team,
3:49
Speaker 1: they were in really rough shape and we're likely going
3:52
Speaker 1: to move before Doug Flutie came in after an oh
3:54
Speaker 1: and three start and essentially saved the franchise and the team.
3:57
Speaker 1: But from O and three to ten and six interest
4:00
Speaker 1: was renewed and they ended up extending the lease with
4:03
Speaker 1: Erie County. I believe it was then Governor George Pataki
4:06
Speaker 1: ended up saving That's franchise by doing the very clever
4:09
Speaker 1: thing of renaming the stadium after the owner so that
4:13
Speaker 1: he couldn't move. It was very clever, it worked. The
4:16
Speaker 1: argument spend the same for years that the stadium is
4:19
Speaker 1: not up to par, and they've done some they did
4:21
Speaker 1: some upgrades to them, but that was the argument in
4:26
Speaker 1: and now that like twenty plus years have passed, me
4:29
Speaker 1: and a lot of other people are a lot less
4:32
Speaker 1: agitated that they want a new stadium because it's it's
4:34
Speaker 1: certainly time. The stadium, I think is lovely and provides
4:38
Speaker 1: a real advantage and has some nice amenities. But when
4:40
Speaker 1: you look in Las Vegas, and we look in l
4:42
Speaker 1: a and you look at these other stadiums, it's not comparable.
4:45
Speaker 1: I'm sure that there are no New York State politicians
4:47
Speaker 1: who are gonna wait the twenty years it took for
4:50
Speaker 1: the bills to get good again and then let them leave.
4:53
Speaker 1: It's just not gonna happen. So I'm confident a deal
4:56
Speaker 1: get done, and I'm sure they'll I'm sure they'll screw
4:58
Speaker 1: the taxpayers one way or the other. It's not impossible
5:01
Speaker 1: to believe that a team is entrenched in the community
5:06
Speaker 1: as the Bills could leave. They did an entire movie,
5:10
Speaker 1: a classic classic movie about the Baltimore Colts being part
5:15
Speaker 1: of the fabric of the city. You can't think of
5:19
Speaker 1: a franchise from the fifties that was more emblematic of
5:23
Speaker 1: a city or the NFL in the Baltimore Colts and
5:26
Speaker 1: they skipped down in the middle of the night. The
5:28
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns, another franchise as connected to the city as
5:34
Speaker 1: any franchise in any sport could possibly be. Years and
5:38
Speaker 1: years of championship level football with some of the greatest
5:41
Speaker 1: names in football history left Cleveland. It's just there's no guarantee,
5:48
Speaker 1: no matter how connected a team is or how identifiable
5:51
Speaker 1: it is with a city, that it's going to stay.
5:53
Speaker 1: There's no guarantee. Am I a donner? Am I realist?
5:57
Speaker 1: Am I someone who was so sophisticated in the business
6:00
Speaker 1: that I can see through the forest for the trees.
6:04
Speaker 1: Tell me Austin, Texas wants the Bills have a great time.
6:08
Speaker 1: I can just transition all the way into becoming a
6:11
Speaker 1: black hearted gambler and just become a Josh Allen fan
6:15
Speaker 1: and just late laid down in that burden I've been
6:18
Speaker 1: caring for thirty six years. Would you pick up a
6:20
Speaker 1: new team? Fuck? No, absolutely not. Oh, I'd be so
6:24
Speaker 1: great to just not have to carry that getting a
6:26
Speaker 1: fight with my wife every Sunday. You're like, hey, in
6:28
Speaker 1: the middle of the afternoon, I need to watch this thing.
6:30
Speaker 1: I gotta watch it the whole way through. I'm gonna
6:33
Speaker 1: get real pissy during the whole thing, and until last year,
6:37
Speaker 1: by the end of it, I'm gonna be really I'm
6:38
Speaker 1: gonna be really sour um. So no, I'm not looking
6:41
Speaker 1: to up to pick up a new alternative to that.
6:44
Speaker 1: The Bears are wide open, so what I'm saying there
6:47
Speaker 1: are there is an appeal there. I'm much better at
6:50
Speaker 1: hiding any kind of emotion related to enormous and cruel
6:54
Speaker 1: gambling losses, of which I have some every single day
6:58
Speaker 1: that I am at hiding my disdain for the Bills.
7:00
Speaker 1: One day, try to ruin my life. Well, guess what
7:02
Speaker 1: Simon today happens to be the day that we are
7:06
Speaker 1: going to talk about. I mentioned the Bears, the NFC North,
7:09
Speaker 1: and the a f C North, and I want to
7:12
Speaker 1: start with the NFC North because that's where I believe
7:17
Speaker 1: some of the most interesting drama has been in the
7:20
Speaker 1: off season. Obviously, any conversation with the NFC North has
7:26
Speaker 1: to start with the Packers. Uh. And the Packers are
7:29
Speaker 1: right now twelve to one to win the Super Bowl
7:33
Speaker 1: behind the Chiefs and the Bucks. I am holding a
7:36
Speaker 1: Packers to win the Super Bowl ticket. They are, of
7:40
Speaker 1: course odds on favorite to win the conference. They are
7:45
Speaker 1: five and a half to one. I mean odds on
7:47
Speaker 1: favorite to win the division five and a half to
7:49
Speaker 1: one to win the conference. Any reason why anybody should
7:57
Speaker 1: bet the Packers at a conference level, a division level,
8:01
Speaker 1: or a super Bowl level. Yes, still love division value.
8:05
Speaker 1: I'm wrong, I'm on vandel right now. It's minus one five,
8:08
Speaker 1: which is great value for that division. Still think it
8:12
Speaker 1: open when Aaron Rodgers announcis coming back at minus one
8:14
Speaker 1: twenty and the money just kept coming in on them. Uh,
8:18
Speaker 1: It's one of these where the Vikings are just one
8:20
Speaker 1: of the most hype teams. UM, I would say I've
8:23
Speaker 1: talked to I want to say, thirteen different bookmakers at
8:27
Speaker 1: different sports books in New Jersey and Philadelphia, and their
8:30
Speaker 1: biggest liability for all of them is the Vikings over
8:33
Speaker 1: nine wins. Yeah, very interesting. Like I it's not just
8:39
Speaker 1: where it's a couple of books, Like it wasn't just
8:41
Speaker 1: sugar House. It wasn't just you know, it was all
8:44
Speaker 1: different books, all these different guys. Because I like knowing
8:46
Speaker 1: that information, like especially these guys they like talking. I
8:49
Speaker 1: just was a wondering what team do they notice? People
8:52
Speaker 1: keep coming in betting, and the Vikings over nine is
8:56
Speaker 1: again one of the biggest bet things right now, so
8:59
Speaker 1: we'll see would actually Nework. I'm sure you guys are
9:01
Speaker 1: gonna have some nerds on it. They'll be to get
9:03
Speaker 1: us the actual data, but it sounds like it's gonna
9:05
Speaker 1: be above of the money is on that over So
9:08
Speaker 1: just from that standpoint right there, I think people came
9:12
Speaker 1: in on the Vikings because they really did think Rogers
9:14
Speaker 1: was leaving. UM. I had plenty of people message me
9:17
Speaker 1: and they thought they had could value on Minnesota, you know,
9:19
Speaker 1: plus two hundred in the north. Um, they've bet it again.
9:22
Speaker 1: When the whole thing came out that Rogers retiring, Um,
9:26
Speaker 1: I'll have to look. Uh, it dropped, It dropped way
9:31
Speaker 1: down Minnesota. I remember it got down to maybe plus
9:34
Speaker 1: one forty at one point, maybe plus one thirty, just
9:37
Speaker 1: because people are really were drinking the koolid. And for me,
9:40
Speaker 1: when I look at this division, I have them great
9:43
Speaker 1: out as a third team right now, I have I
9:46
Speaker 1: do have the Bears ahead of them. So for me,
9:49
Speaker 1: I love the value on the Packers and minus one
9:52
Speaker 1: and I love the value on depends on your book,
9:55
Speaker 1: you can bet the exact order of how each division
9:57
Speaker 1: will finish. I actually really like this one. I think
9:59
Speaker 1: it's very simple where there's the good value in it,
10:01
Speaker 1: where the only two teams are gonna flipop for the
10:04
Speaker 1: Bears and Vikings. I just don't see the Vikings anywhere
10:06
Speaker 1: near the same levels green Bay. Green Bay has lost
10:08
Speaker 1: no one, They've only improved. So for me, I'm just
10:11
Speaker 1: looking at division that the Bears have more upside. Justin fields.
10:15
Speaker 1: He's gonna win that job. We we know he's gonna
10:17
Speaker 1: win that job. Overendy Dalton. We don't know if it's
10:18
Speaker 1: gonna be week one, maybe any Dalton will you know
10:21
Speaker 1: we fed to the Wolves against the Rams week one,
10:24
Speaker 1: and then the left fields played the next game. But
10:26
Speaker 1: it's one of those where the Bears just have so
10:29
Speaker 1: much upside with that defense, but we know they have
10:31
Speaker 1: on offense that I just see them as the second
10:34
Speaker 1: best team in this division right now, not that the
10:37
Speaker 1: liability on the Vikings is one of the biggest over
10:41
Speaker 1: liabilities that bookmakers are seeing that you've spoken to. Astonishing
10:46
Speaker 1: to me, what have they done since last January to
10:53
Speaker 1: improve so much to merit that kind of faith. I
10:58
Speaker 1: think it's a bunch of different things where gonna have
11:00
Speaker 1: the number nerds saying, oh, they were really unlucky they
11:02
Speaker 1: had inexperienced defense last year, which is true, but like
11:06
Speaker 1: you just said, they haven't really done anything, Like they
11:08
Speaker 1: still have some of the worst cornerbacks in the league.
11:10
Speaker 1: They literally just cut our first round pick from last
11:12
Speaker 1: year that was the cornerback. So it's a team that
11:15
Speaker 1: has a lot of holes they really addressed. I know
11:17
Speaker 1: they've made a couple of ads their D line, but
11:18
Speaker 1: I don't think it's enough to address all their their needs.
11:22
Speaker 1: And one of those I think it's just people looking
11:23
Speaker 1: at the offense, people are saying, Okay, Alvin Cook and fantasies,
11:28
Speaker 1: what a top five draft pick. Justin Jefferson's a top
11:31
Speaker 1: ten receiver and Adam feelings there. So I think it's
11:33
Speaker 1: one of those are people are kind of getting sucked in,
11:35
Speaker 1: just like last year where they're thinking themselves that Biken
11:37
Speaker 1: should be pretty good. Chad, we saw it. This Vikings team,
11:41
Speaker 1: especially Kirk Cousins, they followed up. It's one of these
11:44
Speaker 1: teams where as soon as people start believing that, that's
11:47
Speaker 1: when they mess up. And I mean, you know better
11:50
Speaker 1: than anyone. We we got knocked out of Survival Pool
11:52
Speaker 1: last year because we bat Kirk at home against I
11:55
Speaker 1: don't remember it was, was it Detroit or was it
11:57
Speaker 1: the Jaguars? Was someone terrible that they were a big
12:00
Speaker 1: favorite against them and they lost because Kirk Cousins just
12:03
Speaker 1: is not a consistent quarterback. So just looking at this,
12:06
Speaker 1: they look like a nine and eight team. So it's
12:09
Speaker 1: one of those you find I'm gonna push I always
12:11
Speaker 1: go towards the under and the fact that so much
12:14
Speaker 1: of the public is heavy on the over man, you
12:17
Speaker 1: really have to like this underwin total for the Vikings
12:19
Speaker 1: team at nine and so you when you're saying that
12:22
Speaker 1: so much money is coming in on the Vikings, it's
12:25
Speaker 1: not that it's wise guy money. It's just bookmakers saying
12:27
Speaker 1: that a lot of the liabilities is on the Vikings.
12:31
Speaker 1: Uh so that's why you would consider fading him. That
12:33
Speaker 1: is really interesting to me. I bet you wise guys
12:36
Speaker 1: did come in on it just because the Vikings. The
12:40
Speaker 1: people bought in on whatever's happening with Greenback. Like we
12:43
Speaker 1: saw the Denver line moved like crazy. That wasn't just
12:45
Speaker 1: Joe Public money. That was some pro money coming in
12:48
Speaker 1: on Denver because they thought they had good info that
12:50
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was definitely going to Denver. It turned out
12:54
Speaker 1: to bebs. But that was where I took advantage like
12:56
Speaker 1: you did, where we got green Bay twenty eight to one,
12:58
Speaker 1: where there was so much noise and we bet against it.
13:01
Speaker 1: Now it's working towards our favorite. So again, these updated prices,
13:05
Speaker 1: it scares me that's so low that it's minus one
13:09
Speaker 1: with green Bay. But I think it's just because there's
13:11
Speaker 1: been so much money on divisional bet on the Minnesota
13:14
Speaker 1: that the bookmakers don't need to move green Bay that
13:16
Speaker 1: much that I haven't taken that much money yet to
13:18
Speaker 1: really have to move it. So again, divisional odds, I
13:21
Speaker 1: think this is really good value still at minus on
13:24
Speaker 1: Green Bay. I just have them right out four high,
13:26
Speaker 1: four wins more than I do the next closest team,
13:29
Speaker 1: which is the Bears, like I have them at twelve
13:31
Speaker 1: twelve point five wins. Where you know the Bears, I'm
13:35
Speaker 1: talking about taking their season win towed over seven a half.
13:37
Speaker 1: It's because I haven't made in a half wins. So
13:39
Speaker 1: it's one of those where I think the Bears are
13:41
Speaker 1: gonna be better. But I just think Green Bay so
13:42
Speaker 1: far ahead of every other team in this division. When
13:45
Speaker 1: you mentioned obviously I want to dig it in deeper
13:48
Speaker 1: on the Bears for a second. But when you mentioned
13:51
Speaker 1: inside info and the wise guys, I have, for some
13:54
Speaker 1: reason going into a deep, dark entourage rabbit hole on
14:00
Speaker 1: HBO Max. I don't know if it was if it
14:03
Speaker 1: was surface to me in whatever it was on HBO Max,
14:07
Speaker 1: but I started rewatching it, and last night I watched
14:11
Speaker 1: an episode where a relative or a buddy from Queens
14:18
Speaker 1: who was always on the inside track and always had
14:20
Speaker 1: all the inside information to make in cash, comes out
14:23
Speaker 1: to California and convince his Turtle and Drama to go
14:28
Speaker 1: in to buy a Sandy Kofax jersey from his young
14:33
Speaker 1: season for fifty thou dollars. And the reason he's convinced
14:37
Speaker 1: is because his dad uh lives in the same facility,
14:41
Speaker 1: same complex as as Sandy Kofax in Florida Love Sandy
14:45
Speaker 1: Kofax follows him wherever he goes set to tea time
14:48
Speaker 1: for the same time as Sandy Kofax every single week
14:51
Speaker 1: and is saying Sandy Kofax hasn't been at the tea
14:53
Speaker 1: time and hasn't left his department in four weeks. So
14:55
Speaker 1: he's convinced he should buy this now because Sandy Kofax
14:58
Speaker 1: is about to die, and so then he gets so
15:01
Speaker 1: upset he can't do it. So Drama and Turtle by
15:04
Speaker 1: it for fifty grand or even sixty grand, and it
15:08
Speaker 1: turns out Sandy Coax hasn't left the department because he's
15:11
Speaker 1: so upset because it's dog died. That's inside information. That's
15:16
Speaker 1: when people think they have inside information. I'm telling you
15:19
Speaker 1: though I pretty much deal the same kind of stuff chat.
15:21
Speaker 1: That's why I always tell you it's it's sipping through
15:24
Speaker 1: the bullshit. It's one of the hardest things of being
15:26
Speaker 1: a professional. Like again, when the Aaron Rodgers Who's came
15:30
Speaker 1: up with the retirement stuff, I was hitting up everyone
15:32
Speaker 1: I knew because I was like, okay, the line was
15:34
Speaker 1: moving on Minnesota. I said, someone knows something. Let me
15:37
Speaker 1: reach out to some professionals, and all the pros I
15:40
Speaker 1: talked to it wasn't none of them. So it was
15:42
Speaker 1: just public money driving that line. That's why I like,
15:45
Speaker 1: really while I tweet out and say all right, these
15:47
Speaker 1: people are full of ship, but I did with the
15:49
Speaker 1: Rodgers thing just because I knew pros weren't betting and
15:52
Speaker 1: unless they're getting information, they would pass that along. They
15:55
Speaker 1: wouldn't say, they wouldn't tell me they weren't betting it
15:57
Speaker 1: if they were really betting it. So it was one
15:59
Speaker 1: of those where I'll really call people out. But it
16:01
Speaker 1: was one of those I felt staunch and saying, okay,
16:03
Speaker 1: this is b s green Bay. I would calm down
16:07
Speaker 1: in Green Bay, like Aaron Rodgers coming back, he's not retiring,
16:09
Speaker 1: And sure enough, the next day he came back and
16:11
Speaker 1: we saw the odds go for twelve to one. So
16:13
Speaker 1: again it's one of those people where I'm not gonna
16:17
Speaker 1: say things just to say it. Rarely why I put
16:19
Speaker 1: my neck out there unless I know I'm gonna be right,
16:20
Speaker 1: because I don't look like an asshole either. So there's
16:23
Speaker 1: definitely one of where I felt comfortable saying that I
16:25
Speaker 1: believe zero percent that Roger's gonna retire and you run
16:28
Speaker 1: the same boat. We talked for months that we weren't
16:29
Speaker 1: buying that, so it ended up working out for us
16:31
Speaker 1: big time at Caveat. You don't want to look like
16:34
Speaker 1: an asshole about this stuff. Generally, you're fine with it
16:38
Speaker 1: the Packers. Before we get to the Bears, let me
16:40
Speaker 1: ask you this, All this conversation around the Packers has
16:43
Speaker 1: only been about Aaron Rodgers. You say, one, I'm seeing
16:46
Speaker 1: one to win the division? You think that's still good value? Uh?
16:52
Speaker 1: To win the NFC? They are hold on. I'm looking
16:56
Speaker 1: at the app here um behind Tampa at about five
17:01
Speaker 1: and a half to one, and then I mentioned what
17:03
Speaker 1: they were to win the Super Bowl. So my question is,
17:06
Speaker 1: and that was about twelve to one, do you think
17:11
Speaker 1: since losing in the NFC Title Game last year the
17:15
Speaker 1: Packers have improved enough? Like everything has been about Aaron Rodgers,
17:19
Speaker 1: but what about everything else like that they were not
17:21
Speaker 1: a good enough team to advance last year. Have they
17:25
Speaker 1: improved enough elsewhere? So I alwish I say to people
17:28
Speaker 1: that with football, the improvement stuff is important, but a
17:32
Speaker 1: lot of it comes down to just pure luck. So
17:35
Speaker 1: not not just luck, but a lot of it does
17:37
Speaker 1: come down to that. So again, Tampa Bay, they were
17:40
Speaker 1: losing I believe it was fourteen to ten to the
17:42
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints, and the Saints are driving down the
17:46
Speaker 1: field late in the third quarter. There tight End catches
17:48
Speaker 1: the ball, he gets hit, he fumbles, the Bucks pick
17:51
Speaker 1: it up. Tom Brady goes on the score. I think
17:53
Speaker 1: back to back touchdowns. The Bucks beat the Saints, The
17:56
Speaker 1: Bucks go up to Green Bay, Green Bays, you know,
17:58
Speaker 1: playing a good game. The Bucks scored at halftime, you know,
18:03
Speaker 1: right before half to get that touchdown. They end up
18:05
Speaker 1: winning the game, but I think it was five points
18:07
Speaker 1: or four points right at the end of the game.
18:09
Speaker 1: So it's one of those where Green Bay they they
18:13
Speaker 1: haven't improved that much, but they haven't really not like
18:15
Speaker 1: they haven't lost any pieces. Like they still have Aaron Jones,
18:18
Speaker 1: they still have Aaron Rodgers, they still have Adams. Their
18:20
Speaker 1: defense is going to be approved off of what it
18:22
Speaker 1: was last year, just because again, these guys have another
18:24
Speaker 1: year in that system where I'm not. I'll be the
18:27
Speaker 1: first to tell you I don't believe green basing on
18:30
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl either. There's one of these teams they
18:32
Speaker 1: lose an NFC championship game. It's one of these things
18:34
Speaker 1: they do. But I've given myself now a one ticket
18:37
Speaker 1: to hedge out on, and that's what that's all I'm
18:39
Speaker 1: doing here, is I'm investing in future value. So I
18:43
Speaker 1: try to tell people My early lessons I learned, especially
18:45
Speaker 1: from Bob, was if you've been in the future, you
18:47
Speaker 1: don't want it to be worse than twenty one. If
18:49
Speaker 1: you're gonna give sports books your money to hold onto
18:51
Speaker 1: for six months, you might as well be getting pretty
18:53
Speaker 1: damn good odds. So again, I don't hate them at
18:56
Speaker 1: twelve the one to win the Super Bowl, but you've
18:58
Speaker 1: kind of missed the boat. You've like, like we're talking
19:01
Speaker 1: about buying stock where he came on, it's like buying stock.
19:03
Speaker 1: You kind of you're kind of buying it at peak
19:05
Speaker 1: right now, where I don't know, I wouldn't reinvest in it,
19:07
Speaker 1: but I would reinvest in their divisional odds. Guy, I
19:09
Speaker 1: still think that's a great number, Like I have them
19:11
Speaker 1: my two hundred for their division. So it's one of
19:14
Speaker 1: those where, of course I like the odds that follow
19:17
Speaker 1: the one for green Bay, but it's one of those
19:19
Speaker 1: where I'm not gonna tell people to bet it just
19:20
Speaker 1: because again we have such great odds. I feel bad
19:23
Speaker 1: telling someone to bet something that such worse odds and
19:25
Speaker 1: what I have, Like, we're just it's one of those where, okay, uh,
19:30
Speaker 1: one of the three best teams NFC in your opinion,
19:33
Speaker 1: chat off top of your head. Are they in that three?
19:35
Speaker 1: Most likely Green Bay is. So that's why it's one
19:37
Speaker 1: of those where you're going to have a future on
19:40
Speaker 1: that team at that kind of value, just because the
19:42
Speaker 1: odds of them finished top three as well above fifty percent.
19:45
Speaker 1: So it's one of those that's why I play into
19:47
Speaker 1: that that factor. So you mentioned the one before we
19:51
Speaker 1: came on the air, we were talking about investing in
19:54
Speaker 1: the stock market, you know, finding uh, peak value all
19:59
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff, and this is why I can't.
20:03
Speaker 1: I would never be comfortable as someone who's investing in
20:06
Speaker 1: the stock market on my own right. And it's similar
20:09
Speaker 1: to sports betting. I don't spend my day thinking about
20:12
Speaker 1: or looking at markets or getting alerts for markets. I
20:15
Speaker 1: wouldn't even know how to do the right searching for
20:17
Speaker 1: something like that. Same with sports betting. I was not
20:21
Speaker 1: thinking one I should be buying the packers. I don't
20:23
Speaker 1: even know if I saw it at one. Are you
20:26
Speaker 1: just sitting at your computer? Like when I'm at my computer,
20:28
Speaker 1: I am thinking about how are we growing action network?
20:31
Speaker 1: Honest to god, I know it sounds like completely corny,
20:35
Speaker 1: but I'm thinking, how are we growing this part of
20:37
Speaker 1: the business. How are we going this part of the business.
20:38
Speaker 1: How are we going this part of the business. How
20:40
Speaker 1: do they all work together? How is this platform as
20:43
Speaker 1: a content engine going to get bigger? Who are the
20:45
Speaker 1: talent that I want to hire? How do we wanna
20:47
Speaker 1: put editors in a better position to succeed? How do
20:49
Speaker 1: we give Matt Mitchell more resources? Right, That's what I'm
20:52
Speaker 1: thinking about. Chad Millman got something right. Are you just
20:56
Speaker 1: sitting at your computer and like, here's an alert on
20:59
Speaker 1: this this future it? How do you put yourself in
21:01
Speaker 1: a position to know when the market is going to
21:04
Speaker 1: meet what you think it should be. Life is all
21:06
Speaker 1: about time, and what you're putting your time and energy into.
21:09
Speaker 1: Everyone has different interests, different things are obsessed with. I
21:11
Speaker 1: am obsessed with getting the best of the number and
21:13
Speaker 1: finding value. So again, that's why I think New Jersey
21:16
Speaker 1: is the metal of sports betting. It's the greatest place ever.
21:18
Speaker 1: I have twenty different apps on my phone. It's like
21:21
Speaker 1: a tick. Like say, when you open your phone when
21:23
Speaker 1: you wake up in the morning, you have a couple
21:25
Speaker 1: of things. The first thing you do. Maybe you check
21:26
Speaker 1: the news, maybe you check Twitter. I always check sports
21:29
Speaker 1: books before I go to bed. I roll through sports books.
21:32
Speaker 1: When I wake up in the morning, I go through
21:33
Speaker 1: sports books. I'm always checking fl lines. I'm always writing
21:37
Speaker 1: down to where if I see a line I think
21:39
Speaker 1: its tasty, I'll write it down. I'll go check other
21:41
Speaker 1: books to see if I can get a better number
21:43
Speaker 1: or if I should just take that number I'm seeing.
21:44
Speaker 1: So it's definitely, um I'm a creature, a habit in
21:48
Speaker 1: that sense. Uh Like, even in the off season, I'm
21:51
Speaker 1: always checking lines, and I joked when the season ends,
21:55
Speaker 1: I do delete a lot of apps because I just
21:57
Speaker 1: don't want to be betting. I like I can't help it,
21:59
Speaker 1: but like it feels like there's things are never any values,
22:03
Speaker 1: And um, I would say with the Green Bay one,
22:07
Speaker 1: that was actually Saturday night, that was the night I
22:09
Speaker 1: tweeted out, So I've already bet it a couple of times,
22:12
Speaker 1: like I got a thirty three thirty three to one,
22:15
Speaker 1: I got them at one. One was just on Fandle
22:18
Speaker 1: that night where I tweeted out that's the reason why
22:20
Speaker 1: I could give that out because we are sponsored by
22:22
Speaker 1: Fandel But yeah, I had better lines elsewhere. But it
22:26
Speaker 1: was one of those where, um, like someone DM me
22:31
Speaker 1: that night and asked me, uh, why I was betting it,
22:34
Speaker 1: and I simply just said to them, because if Rogers
22:36
Speaker 1: does come back, I think this will drop down to
22:38
Speaker 1: sixty one or something like that. I didn't know it
22:40
Speaker 1: was gonna go twelve to one, but I knew it
22:41
Speaker 1: was gonna drop if he came back, So I was
22:44
Speaker 1: just simply playing the value where I was pretty sure
22:46
Speaker 1: this guy was coming back, playing that number, just like
22:48
Speaker 1: in the stock market, like you just talked about, where
22:51
Speaker 1: these guys, these inside the trade, the inside traders, they
22:53
Speaker 1: know before we know Joe Public. And that's what I
22:56
Speaker 1: feel like my advantage of sports better. It's like I'm
22:59
Speaker 1: I'm able to get really get information if um again,
23:02
Speaker 1: a sports a sports betting group that I talked to,
23:05
Speaker 1: If they're reaching out to me saying, hey, we're gonna
23:07
Speaker 1: bet heavy on the Cleveland Browns tomorrow to when the
23:09
Speaker 1: a f C. You should bet it in the next
23:11
Speaker 1: twenty four hours before the line moves, I'll bet it,
23:14
Speaker 1: and other people do that too, So there definitely is
23:16
Speaker 1: people reaching out to you giving you information to bet
23:19
Speaker 1: where you know, I might not believe in the Browns,
23:22
Speaker 1: but if I'm gonna get the best of a number
23:23
Speaker 1: before it moves, I'm gonna take that value. So it
23:26
Speaker 1: is definitely one of those where I'll bet on things
23:28
Speaker 1: I don't believe in the preseason simply because a person
23:31
Speaker 1: met smarter than me selling me to bet it. Who
23:33
Speaker 1: I trust their opinion on that matter. So what you're
23:36
Speaker 1: saying is, when I get up in the morning, instead
23:38
Speaker 1: of habitually checking the New York Times, the Washington Post,
23:42
Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal, and TikTok, I should immediately go
23:48
Speaker 1: uh check out what the lines are and see if
23:50
Speaker 1: there are any opportunities. If I want to start really
23:55
Speaker 1: taking advantage of the sports betting markets, that's what I
23:58
Speaker 1: gotta do. I gotta change who I am. I would
24:01
Speaker 1: tell I would say that that time's past for you.
24:03
Speaker 1: You have me as a friend now chats, you don't
24:05
Speaker 1: need to do that anymore. That's what. But for the
24:07
Speaker 1: people companion, uh, for the people out there, I would say,
24:12
Speaker 1: if you want to get into this, all you should
24:15
Speaker 1: be doing is watching lines. It won't make sense to
24:17
Speaker 1: you right now, but the more you do it, the
24:20
Speaker 1: more you watch lines and you learn the rhythm and
24:22
Speaker 1: how the sports books work. Again, I think it's one
24:25
Speaker 1: of the biggest advantages I have is that I can
24:27
Speaker 1: spot a shady line, a terrible line, or a trap
24:30
Speaker 1: line miles ahead, because I've seen that before and it's
24:33
Speaker 1: just like a second instinct. So for people out there listening,
24:37
Speaker 1: I would always be looking at lines. It's just one
24:39
Speaker 1: of those where it's never gonna hurt you just to
24:41
Speaker 1: be checking out lines every day. So again, during the season,
24:45
Speaker 1: every morning you wake up, check the lines, and then
24:47
Speaker 1: before you go to bed, check the lines again on
24:49
Speaker 1: the upcoming week because you'll see patterns and how they
24:51
Speaker 1: form on the different line movements. So it is one
24:54
Speaker 1: of those things where I wish people would do it
24:55
Speaker 1: more often watching the lines move. Can we talk about
24:59
Speaker 1: the Bears right now? Please? Okay, we're gonna skip the Lions.
25:02
Speaker 1: The Lions or whatever. The only thing we know about
25:03
Speaker 1: the Lions were better in the under because they're a
25:05
Speaker 1: nimick because all they do is eat kneecaps. Boon callback
25:09
Speaker 1: from earlier in the week, Chicago Bears, Chicago Bears, you
25:16
Speaker 1: say their defense is going to be great. Ah, So
25:21
Speaker 1: give me your take on why you like them At
25:24
Speaker 1: over seven and a half wins. Clearly you would think
25:26
Speaker 1: there is value on them to win the division because
25:28
Speaker 1: they are third behind the Vikings. Um, give me your
25:32
Speaker 1: take on how they have improved since the end of
25:34
Speaker 1: the season. And I would tell people to bet the division.
25:37
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna wait for them maybe only one to
25:39
Speaker 1: start the year, and then I'll throw a little in
25:42
Speaker 1: that division because it's again, it's just really hard to
25:44
Speaker 1: see them win in that Bears game with I don't know,
25:48
Speaker 1: the Rams are just they're just seem like I'm more
25:50
Speaker 1: complete team right now, and the start Week one against them,
25:53
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna be fields, but if
25:54
Speaker 1: that's a rookie making his first start against that defense,
25:56
Speaker 1: that's brutal. If it's any Dulton, that's even worse. We
25:59
Speaker 1: know what any Dalton is. By the way, it's better,
26:02
Speaker 1: you know why. It accelerates the path to Justin Fields
26:06
Speaker 1: starting put Andy Dalton in against the Rams, make him
26:10
Speaker 1: be terrible, and then and then everyone's gonna be like,
26:14
Speaker 1: can we just get Justin Fields in there? That's gonna
26:17
Speaker 1: be it. But yeah, everything I'm hearing about the Bears,
26:20
Speaker 1: I just love Roquan Smith, uh Khalil Mack all these
26:24
Speaker 1: guys just talked about how last year was kind of
26:26
Speaker 1: like a disaster and Clomax at himself. He didn't do
26:29
Speaker 1: enough last year. He didn't get to the quarterback enough.
26:31
Speaker 1: It's it's just one of these teams that, um, they
26:35
Speaker 1: left such a bad taste and so many people's mouth
26:37
Speaker 1: last year that that's why I want to buy on.
26:39
Speaker 1: It's it's one of those where I'm trying to buy
26:41
Speaker 1: alone a team that people's last memories of them is
26:43
Speaker 1: just being bad. So for me, I look at this
26:46
Speaker 1: Bears team. You guys still have Dolan Robinson at wide receiver.
26:50
Speaker 1: I think the running game will be improved. I don't
26:51
Speaker 1: know yet about the old line I'm gonna need some
26:53
Speaker 1: time to figure that out because the old line still
26:56
Speaker 1: might be horrible. But again, justin fields, guy ran a
26:59
Speaker 1: four or four forty. That's that's gonna improve that offensive
27:02
Speaker 1: line pretty quick if you can get out of the
27:04
Speaker 1: pocket and run. So it's it's just one of those
27:06
Speaker 1: where I love the upside of the Bears, and I
27:09
Speaker 1: want people to wait though, because I think if you
27:11
Speaker 1: wait a week, if Green Bay starts, want to know,
27:13
Speaker 1: they start on one, you might be able to get
27:15
Speaker 1: this at plus six hundred plus seven hundred win this division.
27:17
Speaker 1: So I would definitely wait on betting them to win
27:19
Speaker 1: this division. The Bears do have, like at every level
27:23
Speaker 1: on defense, a legitimate playmaker. I mean you could see
27:28
Speaker 1: and with people returning from COVID, don't forget they have
27:31
Speaker 1: players who didn't play last year because of COVID. People
27:35
Speaker 1: returning from COVID. This could be a powerhouse of a
27:38
Speaker 1: defense equivalent to what they have been a couple of
27:40
Speaker 1: years ago. Um, that is improvement just by virtue of
27:44
Speaker 1: players coming back from from COVID and injury. Right, and
27:48
Speaker 1: and that's again we're gonna have a lot of talk
27:51
Speaker 1: about the COVID stuff. All throughout the season, because I
27:54
Speaker 1: know people are really harping about that, but if you check,
27:57
Speaker 1: the Bears are actually one of the teams that are
27:58
Speaker 1: highly vaccinated. So again, it's not that big of a
28:01
Speaker 1: worry for me with them with the whole COVID thing,
28:03
Speaker 1: and like you just said, they have tons of like
28:05
Speaker 1: just not upside. But I just think this defense was
28:09
Speaker 1: played so down last year because not they were out
28:12
Speaker 1: on Mitch dro Whisky, but it just seemed like they
28:13
Speaker 1: didn't play hard for him or Nick Foles, like they
28:15
Speaker 1: kind of gave up towards the end of the season.
28:17
Speaker 1: So I'm just hoping for a big bounce back. And
28:19
Speaker 1: it's seven a half wins in this division. It just
28:21
Speaker 1: feels like a gimme, Like this is really good value
28:24
Speaker 1: on a team that is has low expectations. Bears are
28:30
Speaker 1: one of the most highly vaccinated teams because the Bears
28:32
Speaker 1: are brilliant as an organization. They believe in science and
28:40
Speaker 1: that's what you need to win a Super Bowl and
28:42
Speaker 1: that's how you end up with Justin Fields as your quarterback.
28:45
Speaker 1: It's getting a little crazy in my home studio right now.
28:49
Speaker 1: We still have workers doing work on the house there
28:52
Speaker 1: moving around the house, and they're getting closer to my
28:56
Speaker 1: side of the house, so it's gonna get a little noisy.
28:58
Speaker 1: It's freaking my dog out, who have decided she can
29:01
Speaker 1: only deal with the workers by sitting in my office,
29:03
Speaker 1: and now she just keep looking at me with sad
29:06
Speaker 1: eyes and kind of whining and getting barky. So it
29:09
Speaker 1: might happen in the middle of our podcast. I want
29:11
Speaker 1: people to understand, Go Bears, bear Down, Bear Down, Google Bears. Uh.
29:18
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet that over seven and a half.
29:20
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until week one until Andy Dalton gets
29:23
Speaker 1: brutalized against the Rams, and then I will probably bet
29:25
Speaker 1: on the Bears to win the division. A f C
29:29
Speaker 1: North another fascinating division. I would say there are three
29:32
Speaker 1: incredibly fascinating divisions right now. NFC North, A f C North,
29:37
Speaker 1: NFC West. Those are, to me are like the three
29:41
Speaker 1: divisions that really merit attention. So let's do the North today.
29:45
Speaker 1: Let's do a f C North. Because you have the Ravens,
29:48
Speaker 1: who are a team from a Super Bowl perspective, UM
29:52
Speaker 1: are very high on the list of odds to win
29:54
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. UM favorites to win the Super Bowl.
29:57
Speaker 1: They're at fourteen to one. Right behind them, by the way,
30:01
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns sixteen to one. The Brownies have been taken
30:08
Speaker 1: some money because they were in the twenties maybe even
30:13
Speaker 1: a month ago. And you mentioned like people coming in
30:15
Speaker 1: on the Browns to win the Super Bowl. Wise, guys
30:17
Speaker 1: coming in that has been happening over and over. Give
30:20
Speaker 1: me your take on the Ravens first. They are the
30:23
Speaker 1: odds on favorite to win the division. The Browns are second, um,
30:28
Speaker 1: and they are both two teams that are amongst the
30:30
Speaker 1: leaders to win the Super Bowl. Give me your take
30:32
Speaker 1: on the Ravens first. Please. Definitely one of these interest
30:36
Speaker 1: divisions where I didn't have much of an advantage in it,
30:39
Speaker 1: where there wasn't like it wasn't as if the twin
30:41
Speaker 1: team was a glaring Like last year we talked about Pittsburgh.
30:43
Speaker 1: We both took them at plus three D on this
30:45
Speaker 1: division because I really stood out as a team that
30:47
Speaker 1: was undervalued, where my system had a pretty much had
30:50
Speaker 1: a thirty three you know, thirty three percent repeating, Uh,
30:55
Speaker 1: all these teams, you know, the Cleveland, the Steelers, the
30:58
Speaker 1: Ravens were all the same. It was kind of like, Okay,
31:02
Speaker 1: these two teams are up the top like we see
31:03
Speaker 1: it again this year. But Pittsburgh was a lot closer
31:06
Speaker 1: last year. They just had a better old line, they
31:07
Speaker 1: had a better defense, where now Pittsburgh has regressed. So
31:11
Speaker 1: we see the odds. You know, the Ravens plus one
31:13
Speaker 1: twenty on Fandel right now, that makes sense. The Browns
31:16
Speaker 1: plus one sixty again, that makes sense for them as well.
31:19
Speaker 1: Where I I get the Ravens love where they still.
31:23
Speaker 1: I think they're eleven and five last year, even though
31:25
Speaker 1: Lamar had COVID Like, that's pretty impressive. They were able
31:28
Speaker 1: to pull off that with everything they had going on.
31:30
Speaker 1: They lost two major players off their old line last year,
31:34
Speaker 1: and of all the signings, I believe justin Houston just
31:38
Speaker 1: signed their correct I have to look in my notes,
31:39
Speaker 1: but it's one of those where they need to prove
31:42
Speaker 1: their D line and that was a huge upgrade for
31:43
Speaker 1: them getting a guy like that in free agency for
31:45
Speaker 1: that D line. So for the Ravens to be favor
31:47
Speaker 1: in this division makes the most sense right now. But
31:50
Speaker 1: it's a team I will never put a Super Bowl
31:52
Speaker 1: futures on. I am again, I love Lamar, I love
31:56
Speaker 1: the talent, but I will always be fating this guy
31:58
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. It's one of those where we've seen
32:01
Speaker 1: it time and time again. We saw last year the Bills.
32:03
Speaker 1: It's one of those where you need to make a
32:06
Speaker 1: pass in the playoffs. You can't just run it the
32:08
Speaker 1: whole time. These teams are gonna stack the line and
32:11
Speaker 1: force him to make a play. I know they brought
32:13
Speaker 1: in Sammy Watkins. Maybe maybe that will be an upgrade
32:15
Speaker 1: to the wide and seeming Corps. But for me, I
32:18
Speaker 1: just I've I've been going against Lamar in the playoffs
32:21
Speaker 1: and it's worked out for me for three straight years.
32:23
Speaker 1: So it's one of those where if you had, if
32:26
Speaker 1: you had to make me take someone in this division
32:28
Speaker 1: right now, I'm gonna take the Browns, and I think
32:30
Speaker 1: they have the best value at plus one sixty. But
32:32
Speaker 1: it's one of those where you know, I can't fall
32:35
Speaker 1: to people for taking the Ravens. I just think Lamar's
32:37
Speaker 1: talent so out of this world, how good he is,
32:39
Speaker 1: and how they run that offense to perfection around him.
32:43
Speaker 1: I completely understand why people are taking the Ravens in
32:45
Speaker 1: one's division because, again, like I said, Lamar's talent, I mean,
32:49
Speaker 1: I can't knock it. The guy plays incredible, but just
32:53
Speaker 1: come playoff time. We've seen it. He's wilt every time.
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Speaker 1: you feel like the Browns or the Ravens have improved
35:17
Speaker 1: demonstrably since the end of the year. The Browns, everyone
35:20
Speaker 1: would argue, had one of the best drafts this past year,
35:25
Speaker 1: and I mean, that's just like who the hell really knows.
35:27
Speaker 1: But I'm with them on the sense. I like they
35:29
Speaker 1: added a bunch of guys their defense, which again they
35:31
Speaker 1: needed to improve they had. They had a couple of games.
35:34
Speaker 1: The one that really sticks out the Cowboys effect. They
35:36
Speaker 1: give forty points the Cowboys. Um Cleveland has just a
35:40
Speaker 1: lot to to love. To me, it's one of those
35:43
Speaker 1: where I love their style of play, Like I go
35:47
Speaker 1: back and watch their film like just the same as
35:49
Speaker 1: I love watching the Fots. I love teams with crazy
35:52
Speaker 1: running concepts and Nick chob just got paid cream Hunt
35:57
Speaker 1: to me is another guy. It's a top ten running back.
35:59
Speaker 1: They have both those as in that backfield and the
36:02
Speaker 1: fact that you know Odell Beckham's coming back guys are freak.
36:05
Speaker 1: He looks full go often coming off in a c
36:08
Speaker 1: L there. It just all lines up to me that
36:11
Speaker 1: this this will be the year that the Browns make
36:13
Speaker 1: a run. So I actually haven't touched them for Super
36:16
Speaker 1: Bowl because I just I'm in this phase now where
36:20
Speaker 1: um again, I just hate going against the Chiefs unless
36:24
Speaker 1: I'm getting crazy good odds. So right now in the
36:26
Speaker 1: f C, I've made three Super Bowl futures. I have
36:30
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins, and I have the Colts, which cults
36:33
Speaker 1: one is probably dead, and I had the Charges at
36:35
Speaker 1: four you to one. So it's one of those where
36:39
Speaker 1: I have teams I'm gonna wait on, like I like
36:41
Speaker 1: the Bills, gonna wait on the Bills for Super Bowl futures.
36:44
Speaker 1: But for me, I'm just not gonna do anyone else
36:46
Speaker 1: because it's so much respect to the Chiefs. So for
36:48
Speaker 1: right now, I have a f C champion, I have
36:51
Speaker 1: a f C ticket for the Browns and a thousand
36:54
Speaker 1: ten to one. So it's one of those where that's
36:56
Speaker 1: my player right now. I I got them because they moved.
36:59
Speaker 1: I think they're down to seven oh one when the FC.
37:02
Speaker 1: So it's one of those where I I just took
37:03
Speaker 1: the value there, even though you know, I get what
37:06
Speaker 1: people are gonna come in. They're gonna knock the Browns
37:08
Speaker 1: about how they play and how they got lucky last year.
37:10
Speaker 1: But I just don't view it though. I just think
37:12
Speaker 1: it's a team that just keeps improving year and year out. Yeah,
37:15
Speaker 1: you're spot on about the Browns. They've moved down significantly
37:20
Speaker 1: to seven and a half to one. The Titans have
37:22
Speaker 1: also been movers lately, just because of what you've mentioned
37:25
Speaker 1: about the Colts. Uh, you and I are both big
37:28
Speaker 1: on the Los Angeles Chargers. You're so right about the
37:33
Speaker 1: Browns defense last year. Remember that Bengals game. Remember that
37:38
Speaker 1: game early in the year. It was a shootout, and
37:41
Speaker 1: they they were running the ball, running the ball down
37:45
Speaker 1: the field, long touchdown run and to seal the win
37:50
Speaker 1: and give everyone the cover. And you knew Joe Burrow
37:53
Speaker 1: was going to go down the field for a meaningless
37:55
Speaker 1: backdoor cover, and you knew they weren't going to be
37:58
Speaker 1: able to stop them, and even if they wanted to
38:00
Speaker 1: stop them, they wouldn't be able to stop him. But
38:02
Speaker 1: and then that scenario, they didn't. This was a team that,
38:04
Speaker 1: for betters, desperately needed to improve its defense for us
38:07
Speaker 1: to start getting comfortable betting on them with any real faith,
38:11
Speaker 1: because we bet a lot of we bet a fuck
38:14
Speaker 1: ton of Browns games last year, and it's definitely one
38:17
Speaker 1: of those where, like I've rewatched that game with the Chiefs.
38:21
Speaker 1: If my Homes didn't get hurt, they're gonna lose that
38:23
Speaker 1: game by thirty. I mean, I think literally they were
38:26
Speaker 1: up nineteen to three or something like that when my
38:28
Speaker 1: Homes went out and then the Browns started coming back
38:30
Speaker 1: against Chad Henny and they still lost. Like people forget
38:33
Speaker 1: Chad Henny was able to get a first down against
38:35
Speaker 1: them and they lost that game. So I think it's
38:38
Speaker 1: one of those where I I like, but I like
38:39
Speaker 1: buying on these teams Browns, where they've seen the best.
38:41
Speaker 1: They know what it takes now, so I'm kind of
38:44
Speaker 1: banking on them improving the defensive side. But like you
38:46
Speaker 1: just said that, that defense last year was bad, so again,
38:51
Speaker 1: we need this team to take a step a defensively,
38:53
Speaker 1: need to take a step forward if they have any
38:55
Speaker 1: chance to make it too Super Bowl. We always think
38:57
Speaker 1: about those teams that are underrated throughout the year that
39:01
Speaker 1: become the teams that we consistently bet on. Last year,
39:04
Speaker 1: it was a lot of Browns, a lot of Broncos,
39:07
Speaker 1: a lot of Giants. Every fucking week. It felt like
39:10
Speaker 1: we were talking about the Giants this year. You mentioned
39:15
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, this is going to become an Atlanta Falcons podcast.
39:20
Speaker 1: I agree that they're going to be one of those teams.
39:23
Speaker 1: The Bears are definitely going to be one of those teams. Um,
39:30
Speaker 1: what about the Cincinnati Bengals, who, by virtue of Joe
39:35
Speaker 1: Burrow coming back adding weapons at receiver? Is this a
39:41
Speaker 1: team that doesn't get the love from the public that
39:44
Speaker 1: allows us to find opportunities to bet them week to week.
39:49
Speaker 1: So people are gonna see this is gonna be the
39:52
Speaker 1: fantasy community, the gambling community, all of them are gonna
39:55
Speaker 1: love the Bengals because I think everyone's in the same boat.
39:58
Speaker 1: We're not that we feel bad for them, but they
40:01
Speaker 1: have just had a rough run. I mean my whole lifetime,
40:04
Speaker 1: they have had a rough run. I mean, uh, the
40:07
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton air with Marvin Lewis. It feels like a
40:10
Speaker 1: bad dream there. They were like decent every year, but
40:12
Speaker 1: they were just lose in the first round and they
40:15
Speaker 1: finally get Joe Burrow and he tears his a c
40:17
Speaker 1: L And it's just one of these things where if
40:20
Speaker 1: it's gonna go wrong, it's gonna go wrong for him.
40:22
Speaker 1: So I'm looking at this team and I've I tried
40:26
Speaker 1: to be nice about these things because I get it.
40:28
Speaker 1: It's August. People want to be happy, excited about their team,
40:31
Speaker 1: and like, I hate to be the one of shipped
40:32
Speaker 1: on the Bengals right now, But fucking Zach Taylor, man,
40:36
Speaker 1: I do not like this coach. I do not believe
40:38
Speaker 1: in this coach. It was the same reason we took
40:40
Speaker 1: their under last year wind totals where I just did
40:43
Speaker 1: not trust Zach Taylor and he's the kind of guy
40:46
Speaker 1: he does not make good second half adjustments to me.
40:48
Speaker 1: So again, I love what they're doing there. I love
40:52
Speaker 1: like that they're, um, you know, trying to surround Joe
40:56
Speaker 1: Burrow with good offensive weapons. But I would have taken
40:58
Speaker 1: an offensive alignment. I know people are like, oh, you
41:00
Speaker 1: have to take Chase I get that, but to me,
41:03
Speaker 1: it's just coming off of such a major injury. I'd
41:05
Speaker 1: rather have a stable left tackle for the next ten
41:07
Speaker 1: years then these guys who they've been doing, they've just
41:09
Speaker 1: been you know, signing guys are free agency, are just
41:11
Speaker 1: plug and play where there's no real stability for me.
41:14
Speaker 1: Yet with this team, especially the offensive line. So I'm
41:17
Speaker 1: staying away from the Bengals. I'm not touching them win
41:20
Speaker 1: total over, I'm not touching them for division and a
41:23
Speaker 1: lot of people talk with Joe Burrow for comeback player
41:25
Speaker 1: of the Year. I'm just not doing it because I
41:27
Speaker 1: just think this is one of these things where it's
41:30
Speaker 1: gonna be a team that's not gonna be good. It's
41:33
Speaker 1: it's a fun team to get excited about. I understand that,
41:37
Speaker 1: but you have a major, major injury for Joe Burrow
41:40
Speaker 1: and a head coach is not good. It's just a
41:42
Speaker 1: recipe for disaster to me. So maybe next year, when
41:44
Speaker 1: they have a new head coach, I'll be in on
41:45
Speaker 1: the Bengals, But for now, I am so out on them.
41:49
Speaker 1: You've never met somebody who believes more in building from
41:53
Speaker 1: the inside out than me. I am a firm believer
41:58
Speaker 1: in every single way you build something, you gotta build
42:02
Speaker 1: the foundation first, because you can't cycle the machine with
42:06
Speaker 1: everything else if you haven't got the group in there
42:11
Speaker 1: that is making the engine go wrong with you. I
42:16
Speaker 1: feel like the Bengals could be one of those teams
42:19
Speaker 1: that we fade every week in the second half. Yeah,
42:23
Speaker 1: it's gonna it's gonna be one of those where, like
42:25
Speaker 1: last year, we started the year, we took them week
42:27
Speaker 1: one and week two to start the year last year
42:29
Speaker 1: because they were just undervalued, Like I remember, they were
42:31
Speaker 1: like a three and a half point underdog to start
42:33
Speaker 1: the year, and then the next game they were an underdog,
42:36
Speaker 1: like you said, against the Browns and they backed or
42:38
Speaker 1: covered it or something like that. So it's definitely one
42:41
Speaker 1: of those where I would love to take the Bengals,
42:43
Speaker 1: but they're now, they're getting so much hype to coming
42:45
Speaker 1: into this year that right, I might be fading them
42:48
Speaker 1: to start the year, but then I'm definitely be getting
42:49
Speaker 1: back in on them because it's gonna be one of
42:51
Speaker 1: those where you know, we're gonna hit a point where
42:52
Speaker 1: they're gonna be ten fourteen point underdogs in their division,
42:56
Speaker 1: you know, the Ravens or the Browns. I mean, you know, Chad,
42:59
Speaker 1: we love taking those divisional games, so double digit dogs.
43:02
Speaker 1: So it's gonna be one of those where we're definitely
43:03
Speaker 1: gonna be on the bang was. But I have no
43:05
Speaker 1: problem shipping on Zach Taylor. I just think he's an
43:07
Speaker 1: awful coach. All right. Well, I feel like we for
43:12
Speaker 1: for each division. We've identified the opportunity. There is opportunity
43:17
Speaker 1: in betting the Packers to win the a f C
43:19
Speaker 1: North at about minus one five minus opportunity to take
43:23
Speaker 1: the Bears too. When I said the a f C North,
43:26
Speaker 1: I mean the NFC North for the Packers. Opportunity for
43:28
Speaker 1: the Bears to win the division after Week one when
43:32
Speaker 1: they lose to the Rams. Uh also opportunity to take
43:36
Speaker 1: the Bears over seven and a half wins. No opportunity
43:40
Speaker 1: on any teams in that division at their super Bowl odds,
43:44
Speaker 1: because it would be the Packers and they're already too
43:46
Speaker 1: low in the a f C North. You like the
43:50
Speaker 1: way the division odds are best value probably on the Browns.
43:55
Speaker 1: Value has been bet out of the Browns to win
43:57
Speaker 1: the division, to win the conference and win the super Bowl,
44:00
Speaker 1: because it's already gone too low, and the wise guys
44:02
Speaker 1: have steamed the market, and that's what it's gonna be.
44:05
Speaker 1: We're ignoring the Steelers, were ignoring the Lions in each
44:08
Speaker 1: case because there's really nothing of value to say about
44:11
Speaker 1: either of them, and the Bengals are going to be
44:13
Speaker 1: shipped out of luck no matter how good Jill Burrow is.
44:16
Speaker 1: Is that a good summary. Yeah, and uh, just to
44:19
Speaker 1: follow up, a lot of people have reached out about
44:22
Speaker 1: like I was talking about QB's last episode, Um, people
44:26
Speaker 1: are understanding my big reason for my tyson, Taysom Hill love.
44:30
Speaker 1: Just to clarify is I get why people love Winston,
44:33
Speaker 1: but people forget he was thrown to Chris Godwin and
44:35
Speaker 1: Mike Evans. Okay, look at the Saints where receivers that
44:38
Speaker 1: Mike Thomas is out. Now, this is just not an
44:40
Speaker 1: identity of a team that's gonna be chucking the ball
44:42
Speaker 1: deep downfield with Jamis Winston. It's gonna be one of
44:45
Speaker 1: these teams that they're gonna be running with Taysom Hill
44:47
Speaker 1: and Alvin Kamara. It's gonna be a grinded out kind
44:50
Speaker 1: of team that focused on their defense. So again, Taysom
44:53
Speaker 1: Hill is or plus two twenties start Week one for
44:55
Speaker 1: the Saints. I just think it's great value. I think
44:57
Speaker 1: too much of two much love for Jamis Winston where
45:01
Speaker 1: the people are really viewing him as if you've the
45:03
Speaker 1: same guy with the Buccaneers at through five thousand yards
45:06
Speaker 1: where again, look at his offensive weapons in Tampa. Now
45:10
Speaker 1: look at his offensive weapons for the Saints. It's just
45:12
Speaker 1: it's very different. So I just want people under staying
45:14
Speaker 1: here that there is really good value on Taysom Hill,
45:17
Speaker 1: not only in fantasy, but for just week one starter.
45:20
Speaker 1: It's still plus two D. Simon Hunter, you are a
45:26
Speaker 1: professional sports better and you said about eight things today
45:29
Speaker 1: that made me realize you are playing a different game
45:32
Speaker 1: than the rest of us, and I love that. We'll
45:36
Speaker 1: be back. We're gonna be back on Tuesday. Like I said,
45:39
Speaker 1: we're breaking down the entire NFL. Plus we're gonna sprinkle
45:42
Speaker 1: in some college football. This has been the favorites from
45:45
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast network downloads on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever
45:50
Speaker 1: you get your podcast, don't forget go subscribe, rate and
45:54
Speaker 1: review the new version of our Action Network college football
45:58
Speaker 1: betting podcast with Stucky and Colin Wilson, Big Bets on
46:03
Speaker 1: Campus a K A B B O C. Until next time,
46:07
Speaker 1: I Love you, M