Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Everything Sucks | MLB & WNBA | 8/17/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Everything Sucks | MLB & WNBA | 8/17/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chicks, black coffee.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: On the felt. Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Your name still means something on somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: hold on nothing nice, no, hold.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: On, hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up? Brdbody? It sowed back with the toadstool
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Sports Monday, August seventeenth. I have nothing to say. Don't
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: listen to me ever, Tampa Bay. Absolute dog shit. That
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: was a complete loser. I'm never gonna play another minus
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: one thirty something favorite. I'm never gonna do it. And
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: then the other game should have been a win. Milwaukee
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: Dodgers under first five under I think would have been
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: at worse to push. I think it was a two
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: to one game at the end of five. It was
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: four in the ninth inning, and the thing goes over
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: seven and a half. You need, all you need to
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: do is avoid three runs. In the ninth inning, and
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: that's exactly what happens. Milwaukee gets two in the top
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: of the ninth Dodgers' bullpen fucking ass, and then Milwaukee
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: gives up a run that's completely meaningless at the bottom
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: of the ninth, except that was what put the game over.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: It went over by a half run. Fuck you, just
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: fuck you. I'm done with all of this and the
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: Red Sox are absolute fucking shit, which I guess I'm
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: gonna talk about I talk about this game. I need
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: to figure out a way to talk about these games faster.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: And man, uh, I just go way too into detail
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: with this. I'm sick of it. I don't want to
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: do it. Saint Louis and Cincinnati are playing a doubleheader,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: so this is the first game today. We don't even
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: know who Cincinnati is starting here. I think it's gonna
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: be a bullpen game because Rhet Louder is next in
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: the rotation, but he's pitching the night game. So Cincinnati
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: is either gonna call somebody up for this game or
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: it's a bullpen game. So we have no idea Saint
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: Louis is gonna go with Quinn Matthews in this one.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Bullpen wise, Saint Louis used three relief pitchers yesterday. Cincinnati
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: used three as well. Saint Louis is the better bullpen,
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: but not by much. They are. I don't even know
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: where they're ranked here. Twenty first, Cincinnati twenty fifth. Saint
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: Louis is the better offense, I would say, but Cincinnati's
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: actually a well maybe not Cincinnati twenty fourth Saint Louis
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: twenty fifth. Both offenses suck, but the pitching in this
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: game is not exactly elite obviously, as far as Saint
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: Louis is concerned. There could be a letdown spot involved
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: here because they just beat the Cubs over the weekends.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: That was a big series win for Saint Louis. Could
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: be a let down. They're traveling in for Chicago. Not
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: really that much of a reason to focus on the
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: Reds specifically, although Saint Louis is still trying to make
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: the playoffs, believe it or not, and Cincinnati is not
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: going to make it. But Cincinnati is coming off some
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: losses against the Marlins. Staying at home situation favored Cincinnati
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: in this first game. I would say they could at
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: least try to bounce back. Play spoiler here, but I'm
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: not gonna play Cincinnati and we don't even know who's
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: starting for them. Quinn Matthews is young. He's only made
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: one start in his career. I think it was against Toronto,
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: so it was an easy offense to have to go
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: up against. He did alright. He went five innings, two
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: urn runs allowed. The walks were a problem, three walks,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: three strikeouts, No idea what you're gonna get out of
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: him here. I think he's probably gonna be better than
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: a Cincinnati bullpen game. But the money is coming in
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: on Cincinnati seventy three percent of tickets on Saint Louis,
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: seventy seven percent of the cash on Cincinnati. Saint Louis
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: is a slight favorite in this game. It's yeah again,
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: I think Saint Louis has the better starting pitcher here, probably.
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: I think Matthews does have some talent, but Cincinnati's in
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: the better spot. But you just can't do it right
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: because you have no idea what the pitching matchup is
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: gonna look like. Could be too much of a disadvantage.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: A lot of ticket percent like a high ticket percentage
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: on the under makes no sense to me. The totals
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: at nine. The over might make some sense in this game.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: Just I mean, the pitching is probably not going to
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: be that good throughout this game, but to counter that
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: the offenses are also not that good. Then Game two
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: in this doubleheader at night is going to be an actual,
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: well sort of actual starting pitching matchup. Saint Louis has
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: an actual starter, at least with Andre Payante pitching in
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Game two. Three point four to six ERA one point
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: two to whip. He's okay. He's got a two point
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: five to five roady Ray, so he's actually better on
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: the road, which is kind of weird to me because
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis has a pitcher friendly ballpark. He's pitched okay. Recently,
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs of five starts
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: in a row. Problem is he's walking a lot of guys,
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: so it's a little bit misleading. He's not really that good.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: Hit rate is okay because he doesn't allow that many hits.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is kind of one of it's like
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: the one issue that he has, but it's that combined
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: with the strikeouts, Like the strikeout rate is really low.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: So the advanced analytics guys don't exactly like this guy.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: Strike out for nine is gonna be yeah low, as
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: is the strikeout walk ratio. Pionte against the Reds, though
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: has been good one hundred and thirty six at bats,
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: one eighty four average, allowed five to ten ops, so
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: he might be able to pitch well here against Cincinnati,
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: and Cincinnati's going with Rhet Louder, who I really don't
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: think is good. I think Pallante is the better of
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: the two pitchers here, so Saint Louis I think does
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: have the better starting pitching set up in both games.
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: Louder five point one five ERA, one point four eight
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: whip not good, although he is better at home significantly.
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: He has a three point oh sixy RA at home,
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: which again seems weird because Cincinnati's a hitter friendly park,
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: but both pitchers are in their better home road splits
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: here in this one. Louder has been serviceable, allowing two
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: runs exactly in four starts in a row, including one
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: against Saint Louis, so he hasn't been that bad recently,
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: but he's still very hittable. Hit rate is too high,
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: as walk rate is also too high. Strike Out rate
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: is also low, so strike out walk ratio is really miserable.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: Not a lot to like here, except he is actually
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: good against Saint Louis and twenty seven at bats one
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: to eleven, average allowed three ninety eight ohps. I don't
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: want to do it, and it sounds crazy, but I
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: think in this game two, I think the first five
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: under might actually be the way to do this. Saint
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: Louis is getting the money as well, seventy eight percent
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on them.
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: They're in the minus one twenty range. I could see
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: the reasoning behind it. I mean, the letdown spot. If
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: it happens in game one, maybe they'll refocus in game two.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: Payonte I would prefer over Louder. You could look at
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: like Saint Louis first five maybe in this one or something.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: But I don't like either bullpen obviously, and after the
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: bullpens pitching game one, I think you really want to
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: avoid the bullpens here. But like I said, Payonte and Louder,
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: home road splits favor both of them in this game
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: two here, and they both have good matchup numbers. So
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: first five under I actually think is maybe worth considering
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: in this one. Totals at nine, it is a high
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: total in both of these games. Odds makers not really
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: in love with these pitchers, obviously, and why would you
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: bay eighty seven percent of tickets ninety four percent of
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over? But it does seem like
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: the overs kind of a public side. And while I
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: do usually like overs in game two generally because the
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: bullpens might be used up, the starting pitching matchup in
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: that one does look more underconducive to me. And as
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: I said, you have weak offenses there, so it could
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: actually happen like the week offense is that's gonna help
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: week pitching pitch a little bit better. Usually Baltimore and
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay, this is a wrap around series, Tampa Bay
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: trying to avoid a four game sweep pier even though
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: they still have a big lead in the division. Here,
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: this is kind of ridiculous. Tampa Bay very good home team.
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: They're gonna lose every game at home? Is that really
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: what's gonna happen. I really don't think they're gonna lose
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: this game. I do not. Baltimore is trying, so I
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: guess give them credit for that. Even though they sold
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: off of the trade deadline. This page won't load, so
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: that's awesome. I just want to show the bullpen stuff man.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is ranked third and bullpen, but their ERA
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: is kind of high, so I don't really think their
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: bullpen is that good. Baltimore's era is actually the same,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: although they're thirteenth based on whip. Maybe Tampa has a
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: slight bullpen Azured, I don't think it's much. Tampa Bay's
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: sixth Offensively, the Orioles are sixteenth, so Tampa has a
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: little bit of an advantage there as well. Baltimore used
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: three relief pitchers yesterday. There it is Tampa Bay used
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: three as well. Kind of sort of a bullpen game
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: ish for them yesterday, just because the game is out
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: of hand, they just brought in some long relief men.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: I would say to kind of eat up innings. Brandon
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: Young is getting the start for Baltimore here. He's been
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: decent three point three to three e RA one point
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: three to two whip is not that good, though, does
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: indicate his RA should be higher than it is. Home
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: road splits are very insignificant. He's slightly better on the
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: road in some ways. He's having some walk issues recently,
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: though He's not allowing a lot of runs he's allowed
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: four or fewer in every start I think on the
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: entire season actually, so he's a guy that will go
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: in there and not kill you. And Baltimore's won a
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: lot of his games. Iither won six of his last seven.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: He's got an okay hit rate. His walk rate is
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: kind of the main issue with him. He walks somewhat
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: too many guys and he also doesn't really strike that
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: many guys out, so strike out walk ratio doesn't really
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: look that good there young against Tampa, very small sample
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: size six at bats, only four Test and Hicks have
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: ever faced him, but they've hit him a little bit.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: They have a three thirty three average and nine to
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: twenty nine ohps against him, one to one strike out
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. And Tampa is getting Shane McClanahan back, So
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: that is gonna help Tampa in the stretch run, obviously,
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: because he's one of their legitimate starters. He's coming off
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: the injured list. I think he basically spent the minimum
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: amount of time on it. He only missed like I
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: think the minimum two weeks or something like that. He
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: had a back issue, so at least it wasn't an
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: arm issue. He's coming back. I think that's good obviously
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: for them. And you know me, I like veteran pitchers
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: coming back off the DL or whatever, because I think
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: they're gonna be pumped to get back out there. Tampa
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: might rally around him like, yes, okay, let's go. We're
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: getting one of our better starting pitchers back. So I
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: think it's a positive. They're not gonna put him out
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: there if they don't think he's ready to go. I
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: didn't look at what he did in his rehab, but
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: like I said, veteran pitcher, you know what he's done
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: throughout his career, he's been good. I would lean towards
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: him pitching well in this one. He's got a three
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: point zero nine ERA, one point one two whip. He's
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: in really good at home one at ninety yeah, one
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: point nine to four ERA at home and also below
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: a two hundred batting average allowed at home. He was
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: I guess starting to struggle maybe a little bit going
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: into his injury here, but not really that much. Tampa's
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: still won four of his last five starts, and he'll
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: be going up against Baltimore here, and he does have
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: good numbers against Baltimore two twelve average allowed five ninety ops,
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: thirty three at bats there, eight to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: I like Tampa in this one. Man Again, if they're
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: a good home team, home team's trying to avoid the sweep.
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: Usually you want to look that way. Problem is that
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I love the price though, but
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: I think McClanahan has the upper hand over Young. You
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: might give Tampa the slight bullpen edge. Well, if you
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: wanted to go first five innings in this one and
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: just focus on the starting pitching, you could do that too.
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: I think I might go full game on it though,
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: because I think Tampa might have a slight bullpen edge here.
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: Plus they're trying to win the game. I would imagine
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: like this is the sweep avoiding spot, you know, a
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: four game sweep up on the horizon here, potentially at home.
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: You don't want that to happen. Even though Baltimore has
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: shown up for the series, minus one fifty eight is
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: about the price on Tampa Bay, but it's moved in
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: the Baltimore direction, down from minus one sixty something and
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: the money is coming in on Baltimore sixty four percent
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: of tickets on Tampa seventy nine percent of the cash
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: on Baltimore's the money heavily indicating on Baltimore, and on
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: the under seven and a half. The undermakes some sense
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: because you have decent pitching here, at least, I would say, so.
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that, but I still like
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: Tampa in this one situation. Plus better starting pitcher, that's
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: what I think you get. You got to make a
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: minus one run line out of it, though they're the
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: home team and it's expected to be low scoring, so
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: it makes it a little bit more difficult for them
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: to do that and actually win by multiple runs. But
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: at least if you do it and they win by one,
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: you'll not lose any money. So I think that is
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: what I would do. I would make a minus one
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: run line or find a minus one run line somewhere
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: on Tampa Bay, Miami at Philadelphia. Philadelphia just swept the
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Twins and now they're returning home from that, so they're
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: actually returning home from a road trip because they're in
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis, then in Iowa in the Field of Dreams game,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: then in Minnesota, so technically, yes, it is a return
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: home spot. They've been away for about a week, so
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: you know, I talk about how that's a distracted spot.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: Typically you got to get back to home life. You
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: got stuff to do, and they might not totally pay
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: attention to the Marlins who are behind them. The Marlins,
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: they're playing some good baseball again recently. They've won a
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: lot of their games. Recently, They've won whatever, this is,
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: six of their last eight. They just beat the Reds,
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: which is not really that impressive, but still a winning
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: series for them. Over the weekend, they're traveling in from Cincinnati.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: Here spot sets up better for Miami. So situation, yeah,
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: does favor Miami here. Starting pitching matchup definitely does not.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: Though Miami did use three relief pitchers yesterday. They have
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen over Philadelphia. Philadelphia used four. Miami is
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: ranked sixth in bullpen. Again, I don't think they're quite
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: that good, but they are better than Philly, who is
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: ranked eighteenth. I think maybe Philly is actually a little
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: bit worse than that ranking, So both bullpens might actually
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: be worse than where they're ranked and whip Miami's tenth offensively,
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: they are the better offense. Philly struggled their twentieth though
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: they are better at home and Philly is going up
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: against Jansen Junk, who is not that good four point
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: four to one RA one point three to two whip mediocre.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: But he's also not good on the road five point
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: three to five roady RA, so that's a problem here.
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road. He's not allowed
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: many runs in his last few outings here, but he's
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: not striking anybody out really over his last couple I
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: don't think I would trust it that much. Although it
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: was impressive that he just went six innings along one
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: run against Pittsburgh, though it was at home. He allows
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: too many hits. His walk rate isn't too bad, though
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is kind of low as well, so
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: he's just too hittable for the most part. Doesn't strike
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys out, but he doesn't exactly walk.
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: It's on either, but that's what he does. He pitches
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: to contact, which advanced analytics guys obviously will tell you
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: that's dangerous pitching. He is good against Philly, though, in
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: thirty four at bats, ten strikeouts, no walks, two h
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: six average five to twenty nine ohps. I don't like that.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: He's not good on the road, but he does have
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: good matchup numbers here, he might actually do okay here.
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: Christopher Sanchez is getting the start for Philly, I pointed
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: out yesterday because I tweeted out, there's a graphic of
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: the top ten expected eras in baseball based on Baseball Savant,
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: like whatever the hell they use, they determine an expected
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: era based on how the pitcher is actually pitching. Sanchez
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: was not even in the top ten, which kind of
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: surprised me, which kind of means he's like putting too
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: many men on for Baseball Savant to have him with
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: like a lower expected ray, so that means he's expected
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: the ray is actually above three somewhere, which was interesting.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: So most of the usual suspects are on that list,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: you know, and two of Philly's three starters Big three
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: were there, but Sanchez was not. You'd expect it would
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: be Wheeler Sanchez, but it was actually Wheeler and Lozardo
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: who actually made it. So that is a something of note.
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: And like I said, all the usual guys are there.
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: Miss Chase Burns was on at Schlitler cease. I forget
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: who else made it, but Skeens did not make it.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: His really array is also higher than that top ten.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: So yes, Skeen's not having a good season anyway, I'm rambling.
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: Sanchez is a two point five to four e RA
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: one point one to nine whip good season for him.
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: He's been really good at home one point four to
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: one e RAY at home, pitching well over the past.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: I don't know a whole bunch of starts here, really.
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: He had a bad start in there prior to the
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: All Star Break, but he's and he was bad in
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: the All Star Game, but he's been pretty good since then.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is actually a little bit too high,
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: although it's still below one per inning, but it's a
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: lot higher than you would think from him. So I
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: think he's kind of changed the way that he pitches
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: because he used to be a little bit walk heavy.
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: He doesn't walk that many guys anymore. He strikes out
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: a ton of guys, but he is a little bit
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: too hittable now. Still, he has a really good strikeout
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: walk ratio and a high strikeouts per nine, actually the
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: highest that he's had in his career. In both of
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: those stats. Sanchez against Miami fifty three at bats, they
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: have not hit him well one seventy average four oh
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: eight ops thirteen to two strikeout walk ratio. You can't
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: lay the price with Philadelphia. Plus, they're not in a
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: good spot, so I would obviously not recommend that the
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: money's coming in against them. They're in the minus two
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: fifty range almost here. The line actually went up, but
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: the money looks is fading them. Eighty five percent of tickets,
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: seventy six percent of the cash on them. Total is eight.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: The money is coming in on the over, but I
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: actually think the first five under might be the way
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: to play this. As I just showed you, Junk and
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: Sanchez both have good matchup numbers here. Junk is at
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: least pitching okay recently, so the recent form looks okay
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: to me in this one. I think that's what I
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: would do, even though you have fifty four percent of
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: tickets on the under seventy eight percent of the cash
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: on the over. That's full game. I would avoid the bullpens.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: I don't like Phillies obviously, but yeah, I think the
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: starting pitching might actually keep this game a little bit
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: lower scoring. So I think that's what I would do
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: in this one. The matchup numbers seem to kind of
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: support that, and you know Obviously I don't like the
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: situation for Philly, but Sanchez is a better starting pitcher,
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: so it's tough to really kind of figure out the side.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: And that one Detroit and Pittsburgh on ESPN. Pittsburgh coming
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: off of a series win against the Red Sox. Of course,
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: they got to go up against Sandoval yesterday, so what
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: did you expect? And I was correct about that game
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: being an over even though there was a rain delay
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: in it, where only one more run scored after the
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: rain delay, but the game still went over. Detroit is
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip here off of getting swept by
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: the White Sox. Really really crazy Detroit. I expected them
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: to do a lot better in that series and they
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: lost the one game we played them two by one.
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: Bad series for Detroit. But starting a road trip here
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: Detroit still trying to make the playoffs. I think, you know,
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: you could argue it's a hangover spot for Detroit because
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: that was a big series and they fell short. But
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip might help them rightly just get
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: out of home when things aren't going well. Though Detroit
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: is a better home team, I think the spot sets
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: up better for Detroit because I think they have more
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: motivation because they're trying to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh is
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: really kind of dead at this point. Pittsburgh's coming off
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: the winning series, Detroit coming off an ugly losing series,
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: so that has be kind of looking towards Detroit a
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: little bit. And I think Detroit does have some advantages
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: in this one, like the better bullpen. Pittsburgh use five
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: guys out of the bullpen yesterday partially because of the
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: rain delay. Detroit only used three in their game. Detroit
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: is the better bullpen, the ranked fourteenth, Pittsburgh twenty third,
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: so Detroit has a bullpen edge in this game both
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: in quality and rest. Pittsburgh is the better offense. They're
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: number four, Detroit number eleven, tied with Milwaukee. Detroit is
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: still a capable offense though in Pittsburgh, though good offense
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: at home from for Valdez is getting the start for Detroit.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: How much do we trust Valdez man, I don't know.
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: He's a pretty unpredictable. He's a roller coaster. He's got
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: mediocre numbers here, four point twenty six e R one
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: point three to nine. Whip is definitely not that good.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: He's basically he is worse on the road, his he
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: ray is almost the same, but his opponent of batting
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: average is definitely higher on the road at two seventy.
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: He's walking tow guy's recently, He's pitching okay for the
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: most part recently, not allowing that many runs, but the
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: walk rate is kind of a problem here. That's usually
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: that's his main issue, but this year it's been a
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: little bit warse though. He's also too hittable this year,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: so too many hits and too many walks, and his
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: strike cut rate is actually kind of down to so
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: this has not been a good year for him. Strike
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio not that good, one of the worst
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: that he's posted. Strake out for nine also the lowest
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: that he's posted. So he's having an offseason in his
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: first season with Detroit. Going up against Pittsburgh here a
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: good offense. But I think he does actually have good
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: numbers against them. Yeah, he does in thirty at bats
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: to thirty three average a lot five to eighty one
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: oh ps, eight to two strike out walk ratio, So
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Valdez actually does pitch well against Detroit. Detroit is or
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: excuse me, against Pittsburgh. For Detroit, Carmen Molodzinsky is pitching
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: for Pittsburgh, so it's gonna be a pseudo bullpen game
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: for Pittsburgh, which doesn't look great to me with these
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: five relief pitchers yesterday and their bullpen's not that good.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: If you're gonna play this game, you might want to
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: pick Valdez must start, But don't pick a starter for
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh because we don't know if it's actually gonna be
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: Lotzinski or if he's gonna come in behind somebody else.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: It probably will be him though he's got a three
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: point seven to six ERA, but a one point four
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: whip is not that good. His rray is worse at
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: home three point nine to four. All those opponent batting
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: average is actually a little bit better. But I don't
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: trust him. Man. He'll probably get you two to three
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: innings here, because that's pretty much what he's done typically.
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: His last couple outings have been pretty bad though. He's
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: given up nine runs over the last five and a
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: third innings against the Mets and Marlins. That's not good.
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: Not really a good strikeout walk ratio, and there recently either.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: His numbers don't look good on the season really, even
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: when he was coming out of a bullpen and whatever,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: and he's he was making some starts as well. High
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: hit rate, high walk rate, not a great strike strikeout rate.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: None of these numbers are good. The strikeout walk ratio
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: not good. Strikeouts per nine actually the worst that he's
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: had in his career up against Detroit. He has done
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: well against Detroit for the most part. Eleven at bats
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: one eighty two average allowed seven h five ops three
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: to one strike out walk ratio. I still think I
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: lean Detroit here though. In the money seems like it
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: agrees with that fifty five percent of tickets ninety four
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on them, I think the spot
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: is actually a little bit better for them. They're basically
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: around a pick them price here. They initially dropped for
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: minus one twenty one, but it looks like the actual
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: money is coming in on them, and the money is
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: also coming in on the over eight in this one. Yeah,
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I think Detroit might be the better
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: way to lean. I mean, given the matchup numbers, that
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: does kind of look like possibly a first five under
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: as well, but I don't think I would want to
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: do that. I think just taking the more legitimate starter
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: in Valdez in the better spot, and he does at
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: least have better matchup numbers in this particular case as
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: well over Mlodzinski. I think that might be the way
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: to go. But can you really trust Valdez. I don't know,
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: all right, My one play is gonna be the next one,
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: and you know me, I'm gonna I'm complaining about this,
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: but we're gonna fade this shitty ass Red Sox team here.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: We'll take an underdog here on Arizona plus one thirty one.
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: The reason I'm gonna a full game on this is
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: because it's a Red Sox bullpen game for the whole thing,
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: and the Red Sox bullpen is already injured. So this
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: is bad. This is real bad for the Red Sox.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: They're also returning home from a road trip, so it's
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: a negative spot on top of that, coming from Toronto
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: and Pittsburgh. Not exactly the worst road trip tuh like.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: It's not exactly the worst like travel spot necessarily, but
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: it's still a spot where they've been away for a week.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: They're coming back home and if you forgot already, yeah,
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox are not good at home. They're below
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: five hundred at home. Arizona is also below five hundred
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: on the road. But the Red Sox are not a
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: good home team. They're playing bad baseball right now. They're
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: still hyped because they had that really hot run, so
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: people are gonna think, oh, now they're back at home,
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: they're gonna start winning again. Well, no, because they're hot run.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: Most of those were road games and they came back
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: home and they started failing. After they were hot against
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: the White Sox, Red Sox started losing at home, so
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: that this is where the whole thing started. They started
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: playing bad baseball when they were back at home. Not
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: a good spot. I think it's gonna be a distracted
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: spot for them here. Both teams are trying to make
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: the playoffs at this point. Arizona is coming in from Atlanta,
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: so they're at least already on the East Coast. Yes,
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: it was a tough series against Atlanta, but they're not
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: going to overlook Boston here, and Arizona has an actual
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: starter on the mound at least now. Bullpen wise, we're
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: only gonna fade the Red Sox bullpen. Even though the
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: Red Sox are the top bullpen in baseball, they're number one,
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: but it's a little bit iffy. D Backs are not horrible,
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: they're fifth. But the thing about it is the Red
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: Sox so Arizona used three relief pitchers yesterday. Whatever, their
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: bullpen is fairly clean right now. Red Sox have a
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: ton of issues here in the bullpen right now. Witlock
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: is hurt. Slayton just went on the d L as well,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: so they have an injured bullpen here right now. Even
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: though yes, this is still a pretty solid bullpen. But
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: they're going with Gamboa to start this game, and he's
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: a bullpen arm so this is going to be a
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: bullpen game. Now. I do realize that means Brian BeO
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: is probably pitching in this game. I do realize that.
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: So it's gonna be Gamboa and then Bayo and Bao
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: has been very, very good as a relief pitcher. I
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: realize that, But I still think this is just this
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: is just ass dude. Now, if you want to take
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: Arizona in the first five, you could do that, because
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be them going up against Gamboa. But I
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: think it's about the spot. It's about the combination of everything,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: and we're actually gonna back Mitch Bratt here which seems
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: a little bit iffy. I know he's a young left
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: hander here, three point seven to four ERA here in
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: his rookie season, which is pretty good. But one point
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: four whip is not good obviously, and he's not good
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: on the road. Two point five to three roadier, excuse me, No,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: two point five three would be good. Five point six
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: y three excuse me? Yeah, so he's not good on
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: the road. However, he's pitching well recently. Last three starts,
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: he's gone deeper into these outings. He's allowed two or
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: fewer earned runs over the last three starts. Granted two
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: of them are against bad offenses and the other one
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: was at home against Colorado. But his strikeout rate has
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: gone up a little bit, his walk rate's gone down
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: a little bit, so I think there might be something here,
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: even though overall he still does have a bad strikeout
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. His strikeout rate is still a little bit
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: lower than you'd like. His walk rate is definitely still
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: too high, there's no doubt about that doesn't allow that
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: many hits. But I think he's improving, and the Red
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Sox have never seen him before, so I think we
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: could take the shot with him here as he might
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge here against
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox, and the Red Socks are going with Gamboa,
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: like I said, who's a guy that they called up
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: twenty nine. He's never pitching the majors before this year,
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: so that's to me, that's not a great sign. Although
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: he does have an okay strikeout walk ratio here, he's
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: not really that good of a strikeout pitcher though it
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: looks like so far, and he's been okay just allowing
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: not that many hiss he doesn't really walk that many guys,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: so at least there is that he's got a one
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: point one two ERA one point five to nine whip,
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: But I don't trust him. Arizona will have never seen
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: him before. But yeah, I think Arizona has the edge
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: here in the situation and in the pitching match up here,
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: which I think will kind of cascade into the bullpens.
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: And yes, I do realize that, like I said, Bao
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: might come into this game somewhere around like the third inning,
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: and he's been very, very good as a relief pitcher,
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: although I still don't think he's that good of a pitcher,
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. Man again, if you want to
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: take the first five, you could do that, and that
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: might be you know, what, should we do it first five?
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I'll keep it full game, but yeah,
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: that'll be the play Arizona. I don't like the board today, dude,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: I do not. I think we're fading the public at least,
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: though it does look like some of the money is
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: coming in on the Red Sox seventy four percent of tickets,
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: ninety four percent of the cash on them. But they
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: did drop from minus one to sixty all the way
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: into the minus one forty range though, so the actual
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: money to me looks like it is coming in towards
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: Arizona here totals at nine. I would also not disagree
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: with an over in this one. I mean, this looks
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: like bad pitching in this game, dude, so the over
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: makes some sense to me as well. But yeah, I
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: think we're gonna take Arizona here and Arizona they have
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: been hot offensively, by the way, I didn't look at
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: the offenses. The Red Sox rank a little bit better
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: right now, believe it or not. They're fourteenth, tied with
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: the A's but Arizona's eighteenth and Arizona's been hot offensively,
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: So that's that game San Diego and the Mets. On
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: the surface, like, I was like, yeah, this looks like
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be a play on the Mets. I don't
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: really want to do it, but the Mets look like
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: they have a starting pitching advantage in this one. Mets
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: are coming off of sweep in the Nationals, though, so
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: it could be maybe a little bit of a letdown
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: for the Mets here of a nice divisional sweep staying
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: at home. But they might still not overlook San Diego
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: because they get a chance to try to play spoiler
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: against a team that's trying to make the playoffs in
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: San Diego, who is one game ahead of Arizona right now.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: San Diego just beat Cleveland over the weekend and now
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: they're coming in to New York from Cleveland. We have
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: two pretty good bullpens here. The Mets used three relief
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. San Diego used three as well. San Diego
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: I think is the better bullpenal than they rank actually
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: lower at ninth. The Mets are seventh, but I think
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: San Diego is the better bullpen. Neither offense is particularly good.
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: The Mets are twenty six, San Diego twenty second. Some
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: improvement out of both of them recently, though, Walker Bueller
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: is getting the start for San Diego here. Not that
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: good obviously, four point eight to eighty RA one point
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: four to three whip his Tommy John surgery and whatever rip.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: By the way, the Tommy John died the other day,
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: the namesake of that surgery, because obviously he was a
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: pitcher who had that surgery. He was actually a good pitcher. Bueller, Yeah,
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: his number is not good. Four point eight eighty RA,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: one point four to three whip. Like I said, he's
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: not been the same since his surgery years ago. He's
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: been bad on the road this year five point four
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: to seven roady RA. He's a lot better in San
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Diego's home ballpark, although still not really great there. San
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: Diego's winning his starts though, believe it or not, they've
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: won six starts in a row of his and he's
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: actually pitching okay recently, not allowing that many runs at least,
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: so his form is not the worst at least right now.
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: Although his hit rate is still too high. He still
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: walks too many guys. His strike got rated is pretty mediocre,
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: so these numbers are not really that good. Strike out
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is pretty low. Although it's a little bit
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: better than it has been the last couple of seasons,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: it's still not good. Strike Out up per nine rate
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: has actually gone up from where it was over the
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: last couple of seasons, so he is a little bit
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: better this year than he has been in the recent seasons.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: I was expecting his numbers to not be good actually
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: against the Mets, but I was wrong. His numbers are
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: good here thirty eight at bats to eleven average six
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: twenty eight ops allowed, eleven to four strike out walk ratio,
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: So Bueller is actually good against the Mets. The Mets
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: are going with Nolan McLain, who I think is definitely
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: a solid pitcher, but this is his rookie seasons. You
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: do have to worry about his innings pitch count. It's
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: getting up there, man, it's in the one thirties. I
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: think I start really worrying when it gets around one
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: point fifty. For a pitcher that isn't used to throwing
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: that many innings, they can start to tire out. So
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: you do have to worry about that with McClain here,
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: But he is pitching well he's had. He's had a
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: good season three point four two ERA, one point one
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: to three WHIP. He's not as good at home though,
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: interestingly four point one to nine homy RA, so he's
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: in the worst of his home road spits. But he
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: is still pitching well for the most part. His walks
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: are kind of a little bit of a question here recently,
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: but he's not allowed many runs at all. Two or
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: few are on runs allowed in all but one start
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: going all the way back into late June. Here, he's
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: got a low hit rate, He's very hard to hit.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: His walk rate, like I said, is a little bit high.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: Strikes out a lot of guys too, though, so strike
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio is not too bad. Strike out raid
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: is definitely good. If he would fix his walk problem
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: a bit, he would actually be really good. McLain against
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: San Diego, I believe is good. Yeah, seventeen at bats
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: not a big sample, but he's tell him to a
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: one seventy six average, four to seventy six oh ps,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: five to three strike out walk ratio is not great,
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: but the rest of those numbers are good, So I
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: think McClain he still might be good to go here,
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: and man I don't disagree with the Mets side here.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: I think McClain has the upper hand. They dropped for
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty down to minus one fifteen or so.
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: And you know, the public's gonna look at this and think,
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: why are the Mets favored? Basically right, although they will
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: see they have the better pitcher on the mound, But
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: the public is not gonna really want the Mets as
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: a favorite, you know, like they're gonna want the San
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: Diego team it's trying to make the playoffs here as
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: an underdog, right like that looks pretty tempting. Fifty seven
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets on San Diego, but the real money
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: looks like it is on the Mets ninety three percent
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: of the cash. The money also coming in the over,
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: which I would not agree with. I would lean under
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: in this game. I mean, you just saw both starting
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: pitchers do seem to have a matchup advantage here against
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: the hitters. The offenses are not that good. Neither pitcher
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: is in the better of their home road swits though,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: so that does warring me a little bit. I think
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: the better lean is probably the Mets. Just simplifying it
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: to McLain is better than Bueller first five mets makes sense,
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: although you have to pay a little bit more for
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: it most likely, But that's the biggest advantage of the
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: Mets have is the starting pitching, So first five mets
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: might actually be the best approach in that game. All right,
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: A's Kansas City. This looks like it's gonna be an
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: over series, man, because you've got two bad bullpens here.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: This is in Kansas City, although they did move the
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: walls in in Kansas City. Kansas City's returning home from
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: the West Coast. They went to the Dodgers in Anaheim.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: They got swept by the Dodgers and then were able
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: to win the series against Anaheim. But not a good
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: spot for Kansas City. Right returning home, going across multiple
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: time zones here, playing a bad A's team could be
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: a distracted spot here for Kansas City. These are two
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: bad teams here, man, just playing out the stretch, but
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: definitely a negative spot for Kansas City in the return
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: home spot. Kansas City looks like they didn't use any
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday, which is interesting. The A's used four.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: Neither bullpen is good, though I would not trust either one.
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: They're ranked twenty ninth and thirtieth. A's twenty nine, Kansas
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: City thirty. But the A's have the worst ERA, so
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: I think it actually is flipped from that. I think
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: you do have the two worst bullpens here, but I
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: think the A's are the worst. The A's are ranked
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: fourteenth offensively, Kansas City is twenty third, so the A's
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: have been the better offensive the two dealing with injuries
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: right now, though, A is going with Mason Barnett in
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: this game. He's a young pitcher. He has not been
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: very good though six point one six ERA one point
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: four or five whip. He's not that much better on
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: the road. His home road splits are pretty insignificant. Actually,
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: he's not pitching well right now. He's allowing a bunch
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: of home runs here. He's walking a lot of guys.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: He's given up some hits, not great. His hit rate
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: overall isn't too bad, though his walk rate is definitely
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: a problem. His strike out rate is actually okay, So really,
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: the walks are the worst number that he has here
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: and it's making his strike out walk ratio bad. His
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: strake up for nine is actually okay, but yeah, the
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: walks are a huge issue with him. Kissas City has
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: not done well against him in eight of bats one
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: twenty five average, three forty seven ops allowed. It's a
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: small sample though only four of their hitters have seen him.
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: But maybe Barnett could actually pitch okay here, But he's
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: going up against the much better pitcher. Who is the
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: pitcher who's obviously way more established, Michael Waka pitching for
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: the Royals. He's been their steadiest starter three point four.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: I think Noah Cameron, by the way, was the one
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: who pitched yesterday. Maybe he went the complete game. I
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: have no idea WALKA three point four to six ERA
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: one point one to five whit pretty good. He's been
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: better at home to two point nine to one home.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: He ra not a ton to dislike about Waka. He's
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start going
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: all the way back to the All Star break, so
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: he's been good. He's not allowing that many hits. He
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: doesn't really walk that many guys. Doesn't strike out many
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: guys either, though, so that's kind of the knock on him.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: Although strikeout walk ratio is still not too bad. It's
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: close to that three that I considered to be kind
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: of average. Doesn't strike out a lot of guys. Like
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: I said, numbers against the A's though, are actually kind
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: of bad. Three eighteen average allowed, eight oh seven oh
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: ps and forty four at bats seven to four strikeout
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: walk ratios. This is not one of the better matchups
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: for him. So I would actually somewhat lead to the
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: A's in the first five year, even though it sounds insane.
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: I would not factor in their bullpen into that, obviously,
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: but the Royals are a huge favorite. They're like minus
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: one to eighty something. They drop from almost minus two hundred.
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: I get it. Waka is obviously better than Barnett generally,
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: but the matchup numbers actually kind of support Barnett in
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: that matchup. Plus, like I said, it's a return home
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: spot for Kansas City, so I don't think it's a
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: good spot for Kansas City for the A's. By the way,
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: they're coming in starting a road trip and going east
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: is easier for teams, as I always say, So it's
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: not a bad spot for the A's here. Really, I
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: think it might be a focused spot for them. So
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: I think you could take the A's as a pretty
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: big underdog in the first five On the run line,
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: even perhaps like a half run I think that might
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: be one way to look at this game. Seventy percent
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: of tickets, fifty six percent of the cash on Kansas City,
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: so the money is agreeing with the a's here. First
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: five on the half a run run line or whatever
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: looks like an okay look here, But the over makes
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: sense as well. You got fifty percent of the tickets
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: ninety three percent of the cash on the over. Waka
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: drew some bad matchup numbers here. Both bullpens are terrible.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: Barnett's not a good picture either, So I do think
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: there are a decent amount of indicators towards an over there,
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: and it is a somewhat more hit or friendly ballpark
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: there as well, so over might make some sense there.
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: Perhaps I might even prefer the over to backing Barnett.
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: Backing Barnett like, Barnett's still the worst pitcher versus Waka,
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. So I don't really necessarily
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: want to come in and back the worst picture, even
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: if the matchup numbers they had the situation support it.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: There's really a big gap between the level of those
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: two pitchers, you know, So I think the over might
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: be the better way to actually just look at that game,
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: all right, I'll be right back. There's not a whole
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: lot song about three more games and wnba yep inside
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: I want to kill myself. Were on own set them
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: run over the last two days after tonight. It was
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: not had a good season. Man with wiokens, the slump
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: that I'm on and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hack Man,
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: Arch eight?
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: Is that what it is?
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: I don't even know it's it's March ninth. I think
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore,
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: I die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: it did not go well for me. Own five the
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: about this anymore. To the slump. Series slump discontinuous, the
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: know what I should do at this point other than
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: potentially end it off all right. Yeah, like I said,
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: I hate this board today, but let's finish it off.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: Atlanta Minnesota. I mean, Atlanta definitely a better team here,
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: but I think there might be some indicators that maybe
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Minnesota might be worth taking a look at here. On
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: Minnesota did just get swept by the Phillies in the
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: Field of Dreams game and then at home for the
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: rest of the series. They're staying at home coming off
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: a sweep. They're still delusional and trying to make the playoffs.
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: I think so Minnesota will have some motivation here. Atlanta
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: just got to win against the Diamondbacks yesterday. They are
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip after they lost the series of
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: the Diamondbacks. Though starting a road trip not a horrible spot.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: Like usually you are focused, but I think you might
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: get a little bit more motivation out of Minnesota here
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: because they're in desperation here. Atlanta is not so starting.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: Pitching does look like it favors Atlanta, but I like
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: on the surface, but I actually don't think it does.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: Atlanta definitely has a better bullpen, so there's no question
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: about that. These three relief pitchers just and in Minnesota
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: is four. Minnesota not a good bullpen, they're twenty eighth.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: Atlanta is one of the better ones. They're ranked second.
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: I think they're probably third best bullpen behind the Red
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: Sox and the Yankees. Hitting wise, Atlanta is eighth, Minnesota
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: not that much far, not that far behind at thirteenth,
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: so both pretty capable offenses. There are a lot of
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: high scoring games that Minnesota tends to play at home.
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: Martin Perez is pitching for Atlanta. Gotta give him credit.
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's had a good seat man as an
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: older dude guy who doesn't really strike a lot of
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: guys out, but he's got a two point nine to
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: six ERA one point one five whip not putting a
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: lot of guys on base. Man. The advanced analytics guys
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: still don't like him because he doesn't strike guys out,
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: but I say, well, the whip is pretty good, so
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: he's not putting himself in trouble. However, he is not
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: as good on the road four point three roadyra with
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: a much higher opponent batting average on the road at
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: two fifty three. He's pitching well recently, though. He hasn't
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: allowed to run this month and Atlanta's won all three
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: of his outings this month. But not a lot of
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: strikeouts here, so you know, there are some things to
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: not like. But he's not a lot of many hits
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: at all, which is crazy. He's been very hard to
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: hit for whatever reason. He's fooling guys with the junk
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: that he goes out there and he throws, but he
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: doesn't strike out a lot of guys. His walk rate
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: is actually not that great, so the reason why he's
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: keeping batters off the base pass is because they're not
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: hitting him at all, which is kind of insane. His
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is actually pretty bad. It's below two,
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: so his walk rate actually isn't really that great. Strikeout
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: rate is down as well. It's it's not a great
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: rate there. But he's never been a strikeout pitcher. But
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: I think where the clincher kind of is here is
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: that he's not good against Minnesota. Not really. They have
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: a two to fifty average, eight eighty one ops against,
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: some five strikeouts and eight walks in twenty eight at bats,
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: although thirteen of them are Buxton. But yeah, Perez doesn't
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: really do well against Minnesota. Minnesota's going with Bailey Ober,
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: who is not the better of the two pitchers. He's
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: been okay though, a four point six four RA one
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: point two to three whip, and he's better at home
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: three three point two ERA at home with a two
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: eight upon a batting average, So the home road splits
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: are against Perez and favor Ober here. Ober wasn't great
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: in his last outing because he gave up a bunch
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: of home runs to Baltimore, but he was on a
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: decent run leading up to that, although he didn't strike
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: out anybody in the previous outing. There are some things
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: to maybe not love here about Ober, mostly that he
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: just doesn't strike anybody out. His hit rate is okay,
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: his walk rate isn't really that bad. The strikeouts are
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: a problem. He doesn't strike anybody out, but because he
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: walks relatively few people, his strikeout walk ratio is actually
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: still not that bad, although it's worse this year than
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: it ever has been before, which isn't really that great.
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: I guess his strikeout per nine is actually a lot
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: lower than it has been in the past. Like I
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: used to think he was decent and he posted some
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: pretty nice strikeout numbers before, but not so much this year,
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: so it looks like his stuff maybe is dissipated a
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: little bit. But he is actually pretty good against Atlanta,
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: although they only have six hitters with face him twenty
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: at bats two hundred average six eighty eight ops decent
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: numbers there. I would take Minnesota in the first five
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: in this one man not having to travel could be
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: a bounce back spot for them. The money seems to
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: strongly agree with this. Atlanta dropped for minus one thirty
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: down to about minus one twenty here eighty two percent
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on them sixty nine the cash on Minnesota.
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: Minnesota obviously does not have the better bullpen, but the
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: home road splits and the matchup numbers both favor over here,
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: So I would look at Minnesota first five and that one.
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: Mister Pinze, No, absolutely not. I just told you why
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: you should not do that. Perez is Perez is a
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: mirage dude. Like the advanced analytics guys don't really like
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: either of these pictures, but they're they will tell you
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: that Perez is going to hit a bunch of regression.
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: But no, I would take Minnesota in the first five
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: in that game, and that I think is one of
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: the stronger opinions that I have on the day. And
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: I don't like the board at all though, like I
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: almost feel like I'm forcing the Diamondbacks play. Here we
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: have the Chicago Chicago series. Here. The Cubs are staying
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: at home off of losing to the Cardinals, so it
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: could be a bounce back spot for the Cubs. Here,
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: the White Sox are coming in from a huge series
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: sweep over Detroit, so that's a you know, it could
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: be a letdown spot for the White Sox. Hero though
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: they're not going to overlook the Cubs, you wouldn't think,
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: because the Cubs have been the better of the Chicago
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: teams for years now, So the White Sox usually are
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: gonna get up for a series against the Cubs, so
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: that might mitigate the letdown spot. But that was a
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: huge suite for them over Detroit over the weekend because
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: Detroit was coming up right behind them and kind of
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: threatening them. Where are they pulling that info from? I mean,
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: those are It's from all the books that are listed
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: on this website. It's through some API. I'm not exactly
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: sure what it is, but it includes all these books
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: that are on this website. I liked the books the
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: pregame had on the better, but their shit is never
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: going to be fixed, so pregame can get fucked. But
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, I see the way that these
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: games play out, Like I'm I'm fairly sure that these
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: numbers are like a decent indicator of Like it seems
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: like these numbers a lot of times agree with my handicapping,
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: So I think these numbers are pretty decent for a
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: market read here. I also, I mean, you I'm going
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: by my own handicapping here. It's not just the numbers,
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: like I would still agree with Minnesota first five even
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: if the market disagreed with me. It's just that the
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: market seems to have strong agreement with that one, So
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: I think that makes that place stronger, you know what
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: I mean. It's just like it's a check on it
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: to see if you're agreeing with where most of the
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: professionals are at. But yeah, there's no way that I
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: would play Atlanta on that game. All right, let me say,
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: what was I talking about. I mean, if Atlanta's gonna win,
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: they're gonna do it with their bullpen later in the game.
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: And yeah, that's why I said in Minnesota first five.
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: But when I lean to a particular side in the
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: first five, I'm not gonna lean to the other side
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: for the full game either, because the theoretic, I mean,
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: if you're right, then the other team has to come back.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: So Cubs used whatever four relief pitchers yesterday, White Sox
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: used three. Please don't remind me of that. Do not
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: remind me of that. Let me say what was I
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: talking about. The Cubs are tenth in bullpen, white Sox
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: are fifteenth. These are both decent bullpens. They're both decent
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: offense as well. The Cubs are good offense. They ranked third.
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: The White Sox are rated eighth, tied with Atlanta. Luis
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: Castillo is pitching for the White Sox. They picked him
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: up right at the trade deadline. Basically, he's not had
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: a great season. Of those career has been a lot
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: better than this, as I keep saying four point nine
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: to sixty RA, one point three to five whip this year.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: Wasn't doing well with Seattle, and he's also not been
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: good on the road this year. Five point four to nine.
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: Roady Ray started uh pitching with Chicago. Had a bad
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: start against the Red Sox, although it was a little
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: bit misleading, maybe because he had a decent strikeout a
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: good strike out walk ratio on that outing, and then
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: he followed that up with an excellent start against Cincinnati
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: where he went seven innings, allowed one run, one hit,
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: no runs, ten strikeouts, two walks, threw over one hundred
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: pitches though, but he's done that fairly regularly, so I'm
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: not too worried about the pitch count here. Castillo might
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: be in good form right now, but he you know,
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: I mean that might be a little bit misleading though,
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: because the Reds are not a good offense. The Cubs
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: definitely are a good offense. So Castillo might have a
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: little bit of regression coming in this game. And the
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: Cubs have hit him okay two sixty two average, seven
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: to fifty two ohps one one hundred and seven at bats,
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: so a big sample here thirty four to seven strike
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio is a good ratio for Castillo though,
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: but it's possible he has a little bit of a
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: letdown coming into this one maybe, although he might still
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: get up for a game against the Cubs. You know,
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: he's also not the better pitcher in this matchup show
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: to Imanaga's pitcher for the Cubs. He's good three point
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: seven four ERA, one point one whip. He's been a
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: little bit worse at home three point eight to one home.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: He arab, but there's a lot of variants in these
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: Wriggleague games due to the wind and whatever. Struggled on
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: the road last time out at Washington. Allowed three home
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: runs in that game and that kind of just that
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: was the story of his start, but they still won
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: the game anyway. They've won four of his last five starts.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: He's generally pitched pretty well, though he's gotten back into form.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: Besides that start he allowed two or fewer earned runs,
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: and all of the rest of his starts going all
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: the way back into late June, he doesn't really walk anybody.
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: He has a decent amount of strikeouts, is decent and
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: not allowing that many hits. The home run rate has
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: been really high though, so that's one thing to consider. Yeah,
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: guys have just been homering off of him for whatever reason.
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: But the rest of his numbers look good. The strikeout
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is definitely solid. The strike out for nine
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: is not too bad either, So I do think he's
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: a good pitcher. I think he's getting a little bit
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: unlucky with the home run variants here. I would say,
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: although he definitely is a fly ball pitcher, his numbers
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: against the White Sox come on Man, not good. Definitely
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: not good. Eighteen at bats small sample three eighty nine, average,
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: eleven ninety nine ops five to one, strike out walk
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: ratio good, but the rest of those numbers is not good.
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: I think the over is probably my my opinion in
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: this one. The money doesn't seem to agree. Sixty two
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: percent takets sixty six percent in cash on the under,
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: the totals at eight and a half, So it looks
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: like it's not really a wind centric game here in
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: Wrigley because the number is just right in the middle there,
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: So it looks like the wind is not really having
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: a huge effect here. But neither pitcher has great matchup
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: numbers here. Man and even Aga did struggle in his
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: last outing, Castillo might be in for a little bit
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: of a let down here. Yeah, I think the over
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: might be the best lean here. I would also probably
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: not disagree with the Cubs because I think there's they're
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: the they have the better pitcher, and they're staying at home.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: But I really worry about his matchup numbers though, so
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: I don't love that. But they're in the minus one
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: sixty range here. They actually dropped for minus one seventy three,
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: seventy five percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: cash on the Cubs, So it might be a situation
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: where there is public and professional money all coming into
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: the Cubs. You'd have to make like a minus one
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: run line on that. But given Imanaga's matchup numbers, I
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: worry about that, So I think the over might be
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: the best approach in that one. And then we have
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: a La Dodgers at Colorado. Colorado's returning home from a
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: long road trip where they went to Saint Louis, Arizona,
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: San Francisco. They played pretty well for the like the
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: last part of that road trip. They won the last
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: two series, so Colorado's still going out there and trying
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: They're not like a total dormat at least at this point.
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: Even though there's still one of the worst teams in baseball.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: The record is better than the atrocious record they put
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: up over the last couple of seasons. They'll probably get
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: up for a game against the Dodgers. Colorado's played the
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: Dodgers very competitively this year. But it is a bad
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: spot for Colorado. You know, the return home from a
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: long road trip, it can be a distracted spot. You
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: gotta get back to home life, whatever. So it's not
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: the greatest spot to back Colorado, I would say. And
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: they also do not have a starting pitching advantage here.
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: They may not throughout the entire series. The Dodgers did
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: have to play yesterday. The teams that played in the
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: late night game, by the way, are not playing today
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: because that's you know, that's another angle I look for.
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: On Monday, the night game was Houston Seattle. I look
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: to fade teams that were in that game Monday if
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: they play on Monday. But they're not. LA had a
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: bad series over the weekend against the Brewers. The Brewers
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: seem to have their number man. So if we're gonna
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: if this season is gonna boil down to an NLCS
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: with Milwaukee LA. Milwaukee definitely has a chance to win
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: that series, you know. I mean they've been winning a
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: lot of games in LA recently, which is crazy. I
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: think they've won like now seven of eight or eight
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: of nine. Dodgers, Yeah, took the loss again yesterday. Might
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: be good for the Dodgers to start a road trip,
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: even though that was a big series for them Akend.
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: They didn't play well, so maybe they'll refocus now they're
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: out on the road. Still, Rockies are an easy team
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: to overlook, though, man, and if you want the Dodgers,
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: you have to pay a huge price for it, which
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: I am obviously not willing to do. The Dodgers are
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: the better team in a whole bunch of ways. Obviously,
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: they're better in the bullpen by a significant amount. They're
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: number twelve in bullpen. They're not the greatest, but they're
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: way better than Colorado twenty seventh. Dodgers are number two offensively.
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: I'm just to saying number one, but they're number two
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: right now behind Washington. Colorado is pretty capable offensively, though
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: at fifth. LA used four relief pitchers yesterday. I don't
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: necessarily love the shape that their bullpen is in, and
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: I never love the Colorado bullpen, but they also used
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: four guys yesterday. LA's going with Blake Snell in this one.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: He's back after he only made one start early this season,
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: just like last year, he was injured for the whole season.
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: He came back and he was good in his recent start.
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: His numbers don't look good five VRA, one point three
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: to three whip, but after his first start as he
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: RA was like was twelve and his WHIP was like
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: three or two something. So yeah, he had a really
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: good start last time out. It was at home against
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: Kansas City. You know Kansas City, they're not good at
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: hitting on the road, But really good start for Snell.
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: He went six innings, allowed one run on three hits,
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: ten strikeouts, one walk. So he looks like he's ready
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: to go, and he's getting some work now so that
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: he's gonna be ready for the playoffs and whatever. Snell.
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: We could look at his home road splits like last
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: year as some sort of indicator he was worse on
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: the road. So I will say that four point three
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: Roady Ray with a two ninety eight opponent batting average
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: last year, so he was not good on the road,
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: so something to keep in mind here. However, Snell does
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: still dominate Colorado typically in thirty four at bats, twenty strikeouts.
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: That's a huge strikeout rate. Four walks one eighteen average
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: allowed four to forty six oh ps, really good numbers
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: against Colorado. Snell basically the way that he pitches is
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: he strikes out a ton of guy. He's really unhittable,
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: but he is sometimes a little bit wild. That's what
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: you can expect from him pretty much. He is not
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: like unsuited for course field, I will say so. I
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: don't even know when the last time he pitched in
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: course field was. But he's not a fly ball pitcher,
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: so that's one thing to keep in mind. He's more
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: of a ground ball pitcher. Well, actually he's a little
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: bit balanced. I would say last year he was very
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: groundball centric. The year before that he was a little
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: bit flyball tilted. But he doesn't allow many home runs typically,
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: So him pitching a course field I don't think matters
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: that much. So I think Snell more than likely will
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: be good in this game. The advanced analytics guy's biggest
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: nemesis is pitching for Colorado Tomo Yuki Sagano. The advanced
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: analytics guys can't figure out why he continues to pitch
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: effectively when the advanced analytics say that he's not good,
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: But I say that he's mediocre because I try to
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: not weigh like one thing that heavily like. I try
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: to not just look at the stats only because it's
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: too robotic, or at least the advanced stats. A four
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: point four to three RA one point two to five
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: whip for him, that's not bad. I mean it's not
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: good obviously, but I mean, yeah, it's mediocre. It's not bad.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: And believe it or not, he's actually been better at
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: home three point nine to three home Ray And then
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: everybody thought it was going to be a disaster with
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: him going to Colorado because he's a fly ball pitcher
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: and whatever. But he's not been that bad, and he's
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: continuing to pitch fairly well here. He's allowing few runs here,
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: three or fewer in every start over the past couple months,
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: although it's only been five starts. They're kind of keeping
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: him rested a little bit. I guess they're not overworking him,
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: so they're managing him pretty decently. And the Rockies have
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: won a lot of his starts, dude, it's kind of crazy.
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: They've won eight of his last ten starts, so they
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: win typically when he's on the mound. Although his hit
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: rate is a bit high that's not good. Does still
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: allow fair amount of home runs here, which isn't good.
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: More than that, he allows a lot of home runs,
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: yet his array still not that bad. Walk right is
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: not bad. He doesn't really walk guys. He also doesn't
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: strike anybody out, which is why the oddsmakers, excuse me,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: why the advanced analytics guys don't like him. Strike out
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is two point five, which is definitely helped
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: by the fact that he doesn't walk anybody. Streke up
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: for nine not good, pretty low, so again that's why
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: the advanced analytics guys don't like him. But he's continuing
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: to pitch pretty successfully here. His numbers against the Dodgers, though,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: are not good, so I don't know if this is
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: gonna be a good game for him. Here forty four
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: at bats three forty one average, a lot of eleven
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: ninety six ops nine to one strike out walk ratio.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: He's a lot six home runs to them. But Otani
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: specifically does a ton of damage five for eight with
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: three home runs, so possible player prop potential there hits
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: plus runs with RBIs with Otani, assuming he's gonna be
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: in the lineup, I guess you have to double check
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: to make sure he is. I think the Dodgers probably
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: win this game, but I mean that seems kind of obvious,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: and you have to lay a huge price for them.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: They're in the minus two sixty range and it's gone
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: up for minus two to fifty something. I don't think
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: there's any way that you can do that. Eighty six
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on them.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: You could lay the run line with them. I guess
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: Dodgers minus one and a half on the run line,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: they'll get all nine innings of at bats at least.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: I don't really know if I see a better way
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: to really play this though. The money is playing the
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: over as well. The totals ten and a half right now,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: which is at least lower than that key number of eleven.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: It is a course field total, but I don't think
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: I would really want to do that. With a Snell game,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: you could take the Dodgers over their team total. The
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: problem with that is that you're taking one of the
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: bigger advantages they have out of the equation, which is Snell.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: So I don't know if I really want to do that.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: That is an option at least just to play the
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: Dodgers team total over, but you'll need them to score
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: probably seven in this game, which seems kind of crazy.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: I think it's more likely that they'll be able to
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: cover the one and a half. They can cover the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: one and a half without hitting seven runs, you know
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: what I mean. If Snell pitch as well, you could
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: get obviously you can get something like a five to
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: two Dodger win or something like that, you know what
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: I mean. Although the money seems to be indicating it's
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: gonna be a higher scoring game than that. That's gonna
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: or no, wait, we have WNBA. What am I doing?
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: There's one WNBA game today which I do not have
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: a play on. I was gonna skip the board entirely,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: but you know, maybe my bias is coming. I might
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: be making a bias play today. But whatever, man, it's
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: an underdog play. If it loses, it's whatever. You have
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: to put less money down on its win. More so, anyway,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: the WNBA game is a Peacock NBC Sports game late night,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: ten pm. Dallas at Golden State. Pretty big Western Conference
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: matchup here Dallas. I mean, they're a very improved team,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: but I think they're dealing with some injuries right now.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: They got to go to offense. They don't really have
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: a good defense. Golden State is the better of the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: two teams. Golden State definitely better defensively. Dallas has lost
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: a bunch of games recently. They've lost four of their
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: last five games, which is not good. They just lost
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: a big game to Indiana. They played a lot of
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: decent teams recently though, and they did a lose to
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: Golden State in Dallas by almost twenty points. If you
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: dig into that game, it was kind of weird. I
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: think Dallas won the free throw battle by like a
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: ridiculous amount, and when you have that many more free throws,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: it's not a good sign if you lose by twenty points.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: But Golden State had the shooting variants. They hit like
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: a bunch of more threes in the game, which usually
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: Dallas usually shoots a lot better than they did in
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: that game. Dallas had a very off shooting night. Although
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: Golden State's a good deepfense. But there were outliers going
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: both ways in that game, Like Dallas had the free
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: throw outlier in their direction, but they had the shooting
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: outlier going against them. So does that mean this could
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: be like a zigzag type of spot here where maybe
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: you do want to look to Dallas. I don't know. Man.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: Dallas played on Friday. They played a pretty tough game
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: against Indiana and that was a fairly close game until
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: late in the game. Indiana ran away with it in
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: the fourth quarter, but it was a big game. Dallas
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: played it pretty close there. Now they got to go
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: out to the Pacific Coast, and you know, I don't
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: like that with a team going all the way out
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: from one of the different time zones all the way
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: out to a West Coast game at night and they
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: have to adjust their biological clocks. I don't really love that.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: For Dallas. Golden State is staying at home and they
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: just beat Chicago. Easy win for Golden State. They might
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: overlook Dallas though. That's the thing, because they did just
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: beat Dallas on the road easily, and they got Minnesota
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: on deck, so they might have a look ahead to
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: this Minnesota game. But an isolated game where it's the
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: only game on and they're the home game. A lot
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: of times the home team will show up for a
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: game like this, So I can't figure this game out.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: I don't want to play it. I see factors in
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: this game indicating on both sides here, you know, So
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: it's not gonna be anything for me. Golden State is
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: a little bit more rested by the way, not having
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: to travel, they last played at home, and they last
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: played on Wednesday. The money is coming in on Dallas,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: for whatever that's worth. Golden State sixty five percent of tickets,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: sixty five percent of the cash on Dallas. Golden State's
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: a six point favorite here. Basically, yeah, again, I don't
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: really have a great read on that. What I will
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: say is I think the side in total might be
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: correlated in this one. The total's really low, really low,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: one sixty two, which indicates like that's a Golden State
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: type of game, right, Like they're gonna try to slow
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: you down, play deep, beense at home. Probably not a
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: good indicator for Dallas because Dallas wants to play faster.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: So I think Dallas, even though they're an underdog, I
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: actually think it's a rare situation where the underdog and
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: the over actually correlated because that's the style that Dallas
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: wants to play, and I think under and the favorite
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: actually might be correlated.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: There.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: The money is actually indicating towards the under but towards Dallas,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: which those markets seem like they're in conflict with each
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: other too. So I got nothing on this game, and
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: I don't even have a great lean on this game.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: I think my opinion probably is actually a slight lean
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: towards Golden State for me because Dallas has kind of
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: the bad travel spot less rest, plus they're coming up
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: a more difficult game, so I think I would slightly
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: lean Golden State in that one. But I got nothing
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: really that's gonna do it. Yeah, do not remind me
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: of anything that happened in that game. That's gonna do it.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: My one play today is a real ugly one. Diamondbacks
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: on the money line, Red Sox return home spot plus
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: Red Sox bullpen game. Red Sox seem like they're basically
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: throwing this game to me, So yeah, it's so fucking stupid.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: It's a bad spot. It's one of the worst pitching
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: situations that you're gonna get on the side of the
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: red Sox. So we're backing a complete unknown, very variable
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: starter here with Bratt. But let's do it anyway. He's
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: looked okay recently at least, so I say we do
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: it the over. Like I said, it might be high
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: scoring game. The over makes some sense in that game
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: to it. It's a bad board today, dude, Like I
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: was gonna skip it entirely, So maybe I shouldn't be
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: forcing this one play. But that's the play. Learn to toad.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: You can find me on all the things, you know, Twitter, Instagram,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: go to go to my link train to get all
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: the links, like subscribe to the channel here, and you'll
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: get notified when I do my football stuff, which I
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: might do the college football preview today, possibly because it's
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: a Monday, you know, a day where have less going on.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: So maybe I'll come back and do that at some
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: point today. Be on the lookout for that. It's just
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: gonna be me kind of shooting the shit though and
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: trying to remember everything. I might need to bring up
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: some informational guides for it. It's not gonna be that informed. Well,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: maybe it will be reasonably informative, and I might do
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: an updated NFL one at some point soon as well,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: but be on the lookout for that, so subscribe to
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: the channel, listen on an audio Apple Spotify spreaker covering
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 3: in you because my U Caul Lately channel on YouTube.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: You can check that out Patreon dot com, slash learned
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: a tote if you want to support me that way.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: And Loser cast back tomorrow night. Every Tuesday night, we
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: have some obvious losers for the week. And uh what
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: else do we have? Oh? The New York Giants g
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: spot podcast. Yeah, I got to talk to ban about that.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't know exactly how we're gonna do that,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: but I agree with Tampa Bay on the run line,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: but the money seems to completely disagree with it. I
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: agree with that one though. I consider that one. U.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: That's I think one of the better opinions of the
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: day that I have. But that's gonna do it. Mister Pensey,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: You're the only one in the chat today. I appreciate it,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: even though I'm a negative piece of shit, but I
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: appreciate it. I've got my college football hat on or
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: ready to go. Man. I got the Noah Kniga merchandise,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: and I just picked up a college baseball Sam for Jersey,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: for Chris Fajo for go you know how. You know
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 3: how that's spelled. So I have canigga and fig you
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: know what I mean. So I'm really uh, I'm styling
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: here with my college merchandise. That's gonna do it. Peace.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone at
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: somebody and so, let somebody know you do not.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: Have to.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: Lose this round lone. Hold on, hold on, nothing nice
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: not now. Hold on, hold on. Let me pull you
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: out that bad luck.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: By time, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: hold hold on, stay with me, now, hold on, hold on,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: You're still here now