Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / CLARITY Day🚨 + Fed Outlook🔥Rebecca Walser INTERVIEW

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CLARITY Day🚨 + Fed Outlook🔥Rebecca Walser INTERVIEW · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: It is Clarity Day and today is going to be
0:02
Speaker 1: a big one because we're going to break it down,
0:03
Speaker 1: give you guys ke an update of where the Senate
0:06
Speaker 1: Banking Committee is, and let's just get started. I want
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Speaker 1: feature crypto. Before we bring in. Actually, let's bring in
1:03
Speaker 1: our guests now, and that, of course is Rebecca Wallser
1:06
Speaker 1: coming in from Walls of Wealth Management.
1:07
Speaker 2: How are you, Rebecca, I'm great, How are you great
1:10
Speaker 2: to be here? Thanks for having me?
1:12
Speaker 1: All right, So, Rebecca, we've got a lot of things
1:15
Speaker 1: to take a look at the Centate Banking Committee as
1:17
Speaker 1: literally as we're recording this, going through line by line,
1:21
Speaker 1: a lot of the amendments that have been going on.
1:24
Speaker 1: But while that is happening, the S and P hits
1:27
Speaker 1: A seventy five hundred. I mean, this is insane, Rebecca,
1:31
Speaker 1: seventy five hundred. Come on, that's ten trillion in seven weeks.
1:37
Speaker 1: Have you seen anything like this before in your investing history?
1:41
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, it's such a There'd be two answers,
1:45
Speaker 3: and they both be right. The first one is you
1:47
Speaker 3: could certainly harken back to the you know, late nineties
1:51
Speaker 3: speech of Greenspan saying irrational exuberants prior to dot com,
1:54
Speaker 3: and that certainly comes to mind. However, Paul, you know
1:58
Speaker 3: this is I believe this is the largest leap and
2:04
Speaker 3: technology and abilities that we've ever seen in the history
2:07
Speaker 3: of recorded human time. Anything beyond this would be alien
2:11
Speaker 3: almost in nature, like, this is so far beyond what
2:16
Speaker 3: we've ever seen before. So from that perspective, it is
2:22
Speaker 3: it's hard to say that the monetization is too abrupt
2:25
Speaker 3: and too high because we just have no idea the
2:30
Speaker 3: impact of the chain. This is going to impact literally
2:33
Speaker 3: every single piece.
2:34
Speaker 2: Of life we live and how we live it.
2:37
Speaker 3: So from that perspective, I don't think it can be
2:40
Speaker 3: overdone or hyperbolic. I really feel like it's justifiable eventually.
2:45
Speaker 3: But obviously monetization is always rocky. It's always going to
2:49
Speaker 3: be expected to be volatile. And so anyone that thinks
2:51
Speaker 3: it's going to be and I always say straight up
2:53
Speaker 3: into the right, that's obviously a stock market hard I'm
2:55
Speaker 3: talking about straight up into the right. Anyone who thinks
2:57
Speaker 3: it's going to be up up and a way, No,
2:59
Speaker 3: it's going to be volatile. It's going to be painful.
3:01
Speaker 3: We have issues that we will know if even if
3:04
Speaker 3: we get out of twenty twenty six, we might not
3:07
Speaker 3: get out of twenty twenty six the way we think
3:08
Speaker 3: we are. And from that perspective, you know, volatility is
3:11
Speaker 3: will be a thing.
3:12
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, well, volatility I think people are somewhat aware
3:18
Speaker 1: of that at least that follow our show, and that
3:21
Speaker 1: because because what we've seen in the risk asset market
3:23
Speaker 1: is south has played into this Clarity Act. Senate review
3:27
Speaker 1: is now underway. This is coming from the Senate Banking Committee.
3:31
Speaker 1: They've been going at it. Our research team has been
3:33
Speaker 1: diving into a lot of these What's interesting in what
3:37
Speaker 1: appears to be happening and we're starting to see a
3:39
Speaker 1: little bit of market move on this is that most
3:41
Speaker 1: of these amendments that were submitted by you know, half
3:45
Speaker 1: a dozen senators seem to be sliding off. So it
3:51
Speaker 1: looks like they're going to pass this out of the
3:53
Speaker 1: Banking Committee, which would mean it's going to go to
3:55
Speaker 1: the floor. I know, Guyego Stephens said, hey, listen, now
3:58
Speaker 1: i may be okay with this going through the committee,
4:01
Speaker 1: but I'm still going to reserve my vote for the floor.
4:04
Speaker 1: That's the real question that's going into this. And of course,
4:07
Speaker 1: the odds right now, where are we setting at seventy
4:11
Speaker 1: one percent, which has done a nice job of going
4:15
Speaker 1: up for sure, But when you look at the possibility
4:19
Speaker 1: of where Clarity is right now, it still has to
4:22
Speaker 1: go through a vote within the Senate, then it goes
4:25
Speaker 1: back to the House, there will be some movement there.
4:28
Speaker 1: What kind of impact do you think this is going
4:31
Speaker 1: to have in terms of investors' sideline capital? And just
4:35
Speaker 1: think about whether people are in money markets which we
4:39
Speaker 1: may get higher for longer with the Fed. We'll talk
4:41
Speaker 1: about that, people might just be holding capital on the side,
4:45
Speaker 1: waiting for this market to respond. What is your thinking
4:50
Speaker 1: on that?
4:51
Speaker 3: So, unfortunately, I have, as a lawyer and someone who
4:55
Speaker 3: knows how the sauce is made.
4:57
Speaker 2: At the congressional level, I have a lot more.
5:00
Speaker 3: Of actually getting an act past this year, and I'll
5:05
Speaker 3: tell you the semantics of why, Paul. So, first of all,
5:09
Speaker 3: you have to get out of the Banking Committee, which
5:11
Speaker 3: we know is what they're having a live vote right
5:15
Speaker 3: now on or our live session on right now. And
5:17
Speaker 3: even if we can get it out of the Banking Committee,
5:20
Speaker 3: it's not going to I don't see how it's going
5:22
Speaker 3: to get a cloture vote to which is a sixty
5:25
Speaker 3: vote requirement, and we only have fifty three Republicans and
5:28
Speaker 3: that so in order to vote on it at the
5:30
Speaker 3: entire Senate level, we have to get a cloture vote,
5:32
Speaker 3: and I don't see that that will happen. Before the
5:35
Speaker 3: Memorial Day recess on May twenty six. If that doesn't
5:38
Speaker 3: happen before Memorial Day recess, then we're coming back, and
5:41
Speaker 3: we're looking at potentially a June or a July. And
5:44
Speaker 3: then you also have to reconcile the House version with
5:47
Speaker 3: the Senate version, and the Senate version is where the
5:49
Speaker 3: banking lobby really went to work on this yield issue,
5:52
Speaker 3: which is clearly the largest issue.
5:55
Speaker 2: We have clobrachar, we.
5:56
Speaker 3: Have Senators Warren talking about I mean Senator Warren and
5:59
Speaker 3: her first opening statement on the actual banking Senate Banking
6:03
Speaker 3: Committee said, listen, you know this is written by the
6:07
Speaker 3: crypto industry for cryptos, and so, uh, the negativity on
6:12
Speaker 3: the on the Democratic senator side is it's a really
6:16
Speaker 3: strange alignment to have Democratic senators aligning aligning with the
6:20
Speaker 3: banking lobby. You've got Clobracher who basically is trying to
6:23
Speaker 3: say that Trump's family has benefited immensely already by cryptocurrency
6:29
Speaker 3: and that there she won't look at anything, and no
6:32
Speaker 3: democratic the senator should look at anything that doesn't actually
6:36
Speaker 3: you know, restrict you know, federal government employees or agent
6:40
Speaker 3: you know, agency people from making money in crypto, so
6:44
Speaker 3: that so let's just assume what you're saying, all of
6:47
Speaker 3: those things fall.
6:48
Speaker 2: Away it gets out of committee.
6:50
Speaker 3: We still have a June or July potential likelihood of
6:54
Speaker 3: this actually before it even gets passed by the Senate,
6:57
Speaker 3: and then it has to get reconciled, and the House
6:58
Speaker 3: doesn't have anything about the yield issues. So we've got
7:01
Speaker 3: to the banking lobby, unfortunately, just has so many bites
7:04
Speaker 3: at this apple.
7:05
Speaker 2: And you know, the.
7:06
Speaker 3: Issue that we are coming down to, Paul, is yield, right,
7:10
Speaker 3: so they have settled on this. If it's a passive
7:13
Speaker 3: account with no activity in active activity, then no yield.
7:19
Speaker 3: But if it has any kind of meaningful transactions, which
7:22
Speaker 3: basically means okay, you've either done a trade or you've
7:24
Speaker 3: made a purchase, then it.
7:26
Speaker 2: Can have yield.
7:27
Speaker 3: And you can see why this banking lobby is so concerned, Paul,
7:32
Speaker 3: because they see the riding on the wall. This is
7:34
Speaker 3: the end of banking as we know it, and it
7:38
Speaker 3: is going to happen.
7:40
Speaker 2: And so that's my concern is that are we so short.
7:42
Speaker 3: Sighted that we want to put a legacy banking framework
7:45
Speaker 3: around new technology so much so that we strict it
7:48
Speaker 3: so much so that it leaves the United States and
7:50
Speaker 3: it really gets worthed and born and somewhere else, you know,
7:55
Speaker 3: and where else I couldn't tell you, but I I
7:58
Speaker 3: just want to say, we cannot allow the old legacy
8:02
Speaker 3: banking lobby to frame this because it is going to
8:06
Speaker 3: happen with or without the United States. The United States
8:08
Speaker 3: can try to stand in its way, but it will
8:10
Speaker 3: happen globally. This is a global thing. We cannot control it,
8:14
Speaker 3: we cannot contain it. And unfortunately, I don't think the
8:17
Speaker 3: banking lobby is getting the memo. They're trying to frame things,
8:20
Speaker 3: so they give them, They buy time, Paul, they buy
8:22
Speaker 3: time to still be you know, the major payment processing
8:26
Speaker 3: entity of the of our citizens. And yet that is
8:30
Speaker 3: just the future is not with the banks unfortunately.
8:33
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and I think the real thing that you
8:36
Speaker 1: have to watch. I've got a clip here that talks
8:38
Speaker 1: about the crypto voters, and this is a survey that
8:43
Speaker 1: aligns very importantly because we have midterms coming up, so
8:48
Speaker 1: this is going to get a little dicey for a
8:50
Speaker 1: lot of these senators who are going to be voting
8:52
Speaker 1: on this, especially with the power that's coming out of
8:56
Speaker 1: the crypto voters. Let me go to that clip real
8:58
Speaker 1: quick and we'll take a look.
9:00
Speaker 4: We surveyed fifty five thousand people to get to the
9:02
Speaker 4: ten thousand that held crypto. That's how we learned that
9:05
Speaker 4: about one in five US adults was holding crypto. We
9:07
Speaker 4: just ran our second survey and what we found was
9:11
Speaker 4: one in four US adults now holds cryptos. About a
9:14
Speaker 4: third of crypto holders or women more or over fifty
9:17
Speaker 4: five than under twenty five, more work in construction than
9:20
Speaker 4: in finance. Crypto holders live all over the country. They
9:23
Speaker 4: span political party lines. Twenty percent of crypto holders were
9:27
Speaker 4: actually using it day to day. This year, we've actually
9:30
Speaker 4: seen that double. We're now forty percent of crypto holders
9:33
Speaker 4: telling us that they are sending crypto to friends and family,
9:36
Speaker 4: They're spending crypto at small businesses and large enterprises online
9:40
Speaker 4: and in stores, and about thirty percent of crypto holders
9:43
Speaker 4: accept crypto payments for their businesses. But at the same time,
9:46
Speaker 4: our data shows that about two thirds of Americans actually
9:49
Speaker 4: don't think that policymakers understand crypto well enough to fully
9:53
Speaker 4: regulate it.
9:54
Speaker 1: All right, So there you go. Unfortunately, the truth, yeah,
9:58
Speaker 1: that is that is the case. We have the blind
10:01
Speaker 1: leading the blind right now when it comes to American
10:04
Speaker 1: policy makers. Sixty seven million Americans whul crypto today. This
10:08
Speaker 1: is also supporting the data right there. I think this
10:12
Speaker 1: is going to boil down to one thing, and that
10:14
Speaker 1: is the pressure of a lot of these senators that
10:16
Speaker 1: are going to be going into the midterms and now
10:19
Speaker 1: realizing if they even realize that there are this many
10:24
Speaker 1: Americans that this matters too. And what's most important here
10:28
Speaker 1: is this is working Americans. So this yield situation is
10:33
Speaker 1: a real issue when you start pulling that away from
10:35
Speaker 1: working Americans who can earn something on their dollar, This
10:40
Speaker 1: to me looks like we could end up with a
10:42
Speaker 1: bit of a train wreck. Do you think there's a
10:44
Speaker 1: possibility that we sway those other seven eight senators on
10:49
Speaker 1: the Democratic side to come over during this vote? What
10:53
Speaker 1: would you get it right now?
10:55
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, I mean, I'm closer to a thirty percent
10:58
Speaker 3: probability of getting passed in twenty twenty six only because
11:02
Speaker 3: of the time frame here and because it's the midterms.
11:05
Speaker 3: And unfortunately, if you look at Sanata Warren's career, she
11:08
Speaker 3: has a history of Consumer Protection Bureau all of these
11:10
Speaker 3: things of like trying to be on the government that's
11:13
Speaker 3: going to protect you from the risks. And the risk
11:17
Speaker 3: is that we try to contain something that is global
11:20
Speaker 3: and we get left behind.
11:21
Speaker 2: That's the risk.
11:22
Speaker 3: And I didn't answer your question earlier, which was do
11:25
Speaker 3: I worry about retail to kind of see on the
11:27
Speaker 3: sidelines until this is clarified. I worry about institutional money.
11:30
Speaker 3: We're seeing black Rock, we're seeing Goldman, We're seeing all
11:32
Speaker 3: of these monetizations of money market funds through tokenization, and
11:38
Speaker 3: that is specifically design pol to help the stable coin
11:42
Speaker 3: issuers that have to hold treasuries one to one from
11:46
Speaker 3: the Genius Act. That's designed for them to be able
11:49
Speaker 3: to go out and issue stable coins and.
11:51
Speaker 2: Yet not have to manage their their money.
11:52
Speaker 3: Market treasury backup reserves. And that's why all of these
11:55
Speaker 3: things are being institutionalized and tokenized, and it's for the
11:59
Speaker 3: stable There's a lot of institutional pieces that are be
12:02
Speaker 3: the framework. The plumbing is being put into place right
12:05
Speaker 3: now without clear clarity around how.
12:09
Speaker 2: It's going to be regulated, and that is the risk.
12:12
Speaker 3: And so I just feel like, I know poly market,
12:14
Speaker 3: I know everyone thinks, oh yeah, it's going to go
12:16
Speaker 3: through and it's going to and that's great, but you know,
12:18
Speaker 3: probably what will likely happen is we will get an
12:20
Speaker 3: iteration that will pass. I don't know if it will
12:23
Speaker 3: pass in twenty twenty six. And that's the scary thing
12:24
Speaker 3: because if it doesn't pass now and we get a
12:27
Speaker 3: divided Senate or a divided House and Congress, or we
12:30
Speaker 3: get blue, you know, blue Congress, and that's not going
12:34
Speaker 3: to get us what we want, and we probably won't
12:36
Speaker 3: have a chance then to get that until twenty thirty.
12:39
Speaker 2: We can't afford this delay, Paul.
12:41
Speaker 3: We cannot afford for the United States to be four
12:45
Speaker 3: years on the wrong side of the regulation of this thing,
12:47
Speaker 3: or it is going to bypass us and it is
12:50
Speaker 3: going to you know, basically coagulate somewhere else as the
12:54
Speaker 3: hub of the global crypto birthing, and we aren't going.
12:57
Speaker 2: To be it. And that's the problem.
12:59
Speaker 3: I just can't understand how these people cannot get beyond
13:02
Speaker 3: the United States and realize this is happening at a
13:05
Speaker 3: global level and we cannot get in the way of innovation.
13:08
Speaker 2: It is happening.
13:09
Speaker 3: It is not stoppable, and this banking situation is it
13:13
Speaker 3: could be really tragic for us if we don't get
13:15
Speaker 3: this worked out.
13:16
Speaker 1: Well. Listen, I think you're a little bit you're not
13:20
Speaker 1: very passionate about this, Okay, so we're going to have
13:24
Speaker 1: to step up the energy there, Rebecca. I think you're
13:28
Speaker 1: definitely on on the right train of thought here. And
13:31
Speaker 1: to your point, the amount of institutional capital that is
13:35
Speaker 1: moving into the market, but more importantly is the amount
13:38
Speaker 1: of institutions that are strategically building on this. Now You've
13:42
Speaker 1: now got the CME group. They're launching a nastac CME
13:45
Speaker 1: crypto index futures. This is on June eighth, this is launching.
13:49
Speaker 1: So to your point exactly, is that this is now
13:53
Speaker 1: going into a much more broader market. We're seeing this
13:56
Speaker 1: that come across in pretty much everybody. We saw this
13:59
Speaker 1: with JP Moore and announcing their news moving into tokenized
14:02
Speaker 1: money markets. We're going to see more companies on their
14:05
Speaker 1: Schwab now coming into active trading with digital assets. I mean,
14:09
Speaker 1: you couldn't be further along, and this stuff is going
14:12
Speaker 1: to move like light speed. I'm just kind of curious
14:15
Speaker 1: to what point we're going to get it. Listen, we
14:18
Speaker 1: have breaking news, breaking news. They have moved the Yeah,
14:24
Speaker 1: they've moved it out of the Senate banking so it
14:26
Speaker 1: is moving forward to the Senate floor as appears to be,
14:30
Speaker 1: as is coming off of what we saw in the
14:33
Speaker 1: markup text. We'll cover more on this later. So to
14:36
Speaker 1: your point we were kind of anticipating this today is
14:39
Speaker 1: that this is huge. Next step is really how do
14:42
Speaker 1: we sway those senators. I think if they talk to
14:45
Speaker 1: you for a few minutes, they probably didn't come over
14:47
Speaker 1: and say, yeah, may your podcast Rebecca is doing. So
14:54
Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about IPOs, because there are
14:56
Speaker 1: some things that are happening. One thing that's caught me
14:59
Speaker 1: a little bit by surprise is the fact that we have,
15:03
Speaker 1: alongside giants like open Ai, SpaceX Stripe, these are some
15:08
Speaker 1: of the biggest unicorns out there, we have one of
15:12
Speaker 1: the crypto natives in there, and that is Ripple Labs,
15:15
Speaker 1: the home of XRP. But the point I'm getting at
15:18
Speaker 1: is you have now a top ten company ranked by
15:23
Speaker 1: valuation that is a crypt native company in Ripple. You
15:29
Speaker 1: now have all of these new FinTechs that are moving
15:33
Speaker 1: quickly to raise next generation capital and possibly next series
15:38
Speaker 1: and then eventually go ipo. Do you think we'll see
15:41
Speaker 1: a mad rush to IPOs again if Clarity goes through.
15:47
Speaker 3: I do I do think that I don't imagine that.
15:51
Speaker 3: I can't imagine right now, with the exception of I
15:54
Speaker 3: really can't imagine right now if Clarity is delayed, which
15:57
Speaker 3: is the biggest risk right The biggest risk is that
15:59
Speaker 3: it doesn't twenty twenty six, we get some kind of
16:02
Speaker 3: divided mid term election, and then we don't have a
16:04
Speaker 3: real opportunity to get it past in a format that
16:07
Speaker 3: is going to be market friendly until twenty thirty, so
16:10
Speaker 3: that that would be the worst case scenario of the
16:13
Speaker 3: doomsday scenario I think for the United States. But as
16:17
Speaker 3: far as IPOs, you know, I think that obviously anthropics SpaceX,
16:22
Speaker 3: open AI, all real SpaceX obviously being a little bit different,
16:26
Speaker 3: but all really AI specific, very AI heavy, and then
16:30
Speaker 3: crypto heavy obviously ripple. And for me, my general IPO
16:35
Speaker 3: advice is always wait six months, because it's very rare
16:38
Speaker 3: that you get something that takes off that at a
16:40
Speaker 3: price point that six months later it is above. It
16:43
Speaker 3: has to be a true unicorn, it has to be
16:44
Speaker 3: a true like outlier, otherwise we get higher, you know,
16:47
Speaker 3: we just like over exuberance and then rationality takes over
16:51
Speaker 3: and within six months you kind of work out six
16:52
Speaker 3: months to a year when sometimes you work out what
16:54
Speaker 3: the real valuation is and the first purchasers at the
16:59
Speaker 3: exchange level usually not the winners.
17:01
Speaker 2: So I like to wait six to six months to
17:03
Speaker 2: a year on IPOs.
17:05
Speaker 3: But let's see, it's going to be this is going
17:07
Speaker 3: to be obviously the largest IPO. You're just open AI
17:09
Speaker 3: and SpaceX alone. You add in there Ripple Anthropic and
17:12
Speaker 3: you're you're just looking at some of the largest IPOs,
17:16
Speaker 3: you know, and certainly IPO activity that we haven't seen
17:21
Speaker 3: in two decades probably it's been that long, so it's amazing.
17:24
Speaker 1: Well, and these are monsters. These would be absolute you
17:28
Speaker 1: know stars in terms of IPO season. But to your point,
17:31
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be a lot of companies
17:34
Speaker 1: and either small smaller i pos and or companies that
17:38
Speaker 1: are in the universe of many of these organizations that
17:42
Speaker 1: probably will end up doing well along with these launches
17:45
Speaker 1: because it will raise a lot of you know, narrative
17:48
Speaker 1: I think around particular sectors, especially in the space sector.
17:51
Speaker 1: I'm following a lot of the you know, emerging space stocks,
17:54
Speaker 1: right now, which seems to be and if SpaceX actually
17:58
Speaker 1: goes live and we do see the kind of pe
18:01
Speaker 1: that we're anticipating, I mean, these are gonna be huge.
18:04
Speaker 1: Let's move over to kind of next phase here, because
18:07
Speaker 1: now we're talking about the FED who's getting ready to
18:11
Speaker 1: take control. We're talking about Kevin Walsh. He's moving in.
18:14
Speaker 1: He's gonna We're gonna see him in the next FOMC meeting.
18:17
Speaker 1: He'll be right there doing chair Paleal's former job. I
18:21
Speaker 1: want to play a clip because this is Mohammad al
18:23
Speaker 1: Rain who's talking about the next phase of how this
18:27
Speaker 1: economy will affect the fed's decision. I want to hear
18:31
Speaker 1: what you have to say. Take a look.
18:36
Speaker 5: So for now, meaning the next few months, they'll act
18:40
Speaker 5: by not acting. The FED is going to look at
18:42
Speaker 5: this and it's gonna stop it from cutting weights for
18:47
Speaker 5: most of the year. And if we get a weight action,
18:52
Speaker 5: it is more likely to be a hike than a cut.
18:56
Speaker 5: But I think the scenario is they will do nothing
18:59
Speaker 5: for at least eight months, So.
19:01
Speaker 2: You think they can sit on their hands for that long.
19:05
Speaker 5: I think they're going to sit on their hands because
19:08
Speaker 5: the next stage that we're going to see is what
19:11
Speaker 5: I call demand destruction. So if you remember, there were
19:14
Speaker 5: four phases to the shock, the economic shock from the
19:18
Speaker 5: Middle East War. Number one is energy prices and interest
19:22
Speaker 5: rates go up. Number two that we're seeing today is
19:26
Speaker 5: it starts to be an inflation problem much greater. Number
19:29
Speaker 5: three is the affordability issue becomes severe enough that people
19:34
Speaker 5: stop spending. As demand destruction. And number four hopefully we
19:39
Speaker 5: won't get there and you get financial instability.
19:43
Speaker 1: All right, So there you have it. They are believing,
19:47
Speaker 1: some analysts believing that this is going to go higher
19:50
Speaker 1: for longer. What is your opinion right now? Odds a
19:53
Speaker 1: Ray hug right now higher than thirty percent of the
19:57
Speaker 1: odds as a raycus lesson too. So what do you think?
20:00
Speaker 1: What do we look like?
20:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh my goodness.
20:02
Speaker 3: So this is so you know, it's so hard because
20:05
Speaker 3: we have a new FED chair that literally got confirmed
20:08
Speaker 3: on the thirteenth, and he, to me, his record showed
20:13
Speaker 3: that he was a hawk, which I am more on
20:16
Speaker 3: the hawkish side of a central bank policy molnetary policy.
20:19
Speaker 2: So I was really happy for that.
20:21
Speaker 3: But obviously Trump nominated him, expecting him to be dubvish
20:24
Speaker 3: and cut rates and to you know, stimulate.
20:27
Speaker 2: Ftal Reserve has been doing quantitative easy. They don't call
20:30
Speaker 2: it quantitative.
20:31
Speaker 3: Easy, but they basically, you know, with the R and P,
20:34
Speaker 3: basically they were buying forty billion of treasuries a month
20:39
Speaker 3: and in April they decided to trim that from forty.
20:42
Speaker 2: Eight to twenty five. But we have if you look.
20:44
Speaker 3: At the M two money supply pole, from July of
20:47
Speaker 3: last year to February, we increased that by a trillion dollars.
20:49
Speaker 3: We have a ton of liquidity in the system, and
20:53
Speaker 3: so that would be very accommodative. That would be you know,
20:56
Speaker 3: indicative of helping Trump. This was POW that did this
20:59
Speaker 3: worsh in. We've already seen that it was trimmed from
21:02
Speaker 3: forty to twenty five.
21:03
Speaker 2: That's already going to impact liquidity.
21:06
Speaker 3: The problem is you have obviously CPI coming in three
21:09
Speaker 3: point eight percent, you have PPI coming in at a
21:11
Speaker 3: massively higher number, and that's of course, the wholesale price
21:14
Speaker 3: is for April six percent.
21:16
Speaker 2: Year over year. There's just no chance with the CPI and.
21:19
Speaker 3: A PPI of these and these ranges of course greatly
21:23
Speaker 3: impacted by the Middle East and what's going on with Iran.
21:25
Speaker 2: But when you have a CPI and a PPI in.
21:27
Speaker 3: These range, the Federal Reserve is not going to be
21:30
Speaker 3: able to justify cuts period and that really puts the
21:34
Speaker 3: Treasury back on its heels because that just continues to
21:37
Speaker 3: mean that they can only finance what they need to
21:40
Speaker 3: finance on the long end of the yield curve, which
21:43
Speaker 3: is too high, and we can't afford to be on
21:46
Speaker 3: the shorter or excuse me, they can't afford to excel
21:48
Speaker 3: at the long end the yeld curve.
21:49
Speaker 2: It's too high.
21:50
Speaker 3: They have to do short term financing and it's a problem.
21:55
Speaker 3: So this is a disaster from a perspective of a
22:00
Speaker 3: brand new person coming in and trying to establish what
22:02
Speaker 3: their framework is and what their policy is, because you're
22:05
Speaker 3: really fighting against a hot pricing situation scheme and this
22:12
Speaker 3: is not what you want to come in at trying
22:14
Speaker 3: to be dubvish. It's just not what you just can't
22:17
Speaker 3: do it. And you've got really a hawkish person in
22:19
Speaker 3: his history with the FED on the Board of Governors
22:22
Speaker 3: coming in and trying to be dubbish.
22:24
Speaker 2: It's just not going to work. There's no Federal Reserve President.
22:27
Speaker 3: I don't think that could possibly ever justify cuts in
22:29
Speaker 3: this kind of environment. So again, not only from the
22:32
Speaker 3: federal reserve perspective, but from the perspective of the midterm election.
22:36
Speaker 3: This war has to end, I think the latest by July,
22:40
Speaker 3: and we have to have some kind of price stability
22:44
Speaker 3: because otherwise it's going to impact people so much that
22:46
Speaker 3: they won't forget it in November. They will still vote
22:49
Speaker 3: with their pocket even if prices have come down, if
22:50
Speaker 3: they haven't come down long enough. So this is a
22:53
Speaker 3: massive problem when you get to four and a half percent.
22:55
Speaker 3: You know, we just had Paul last week the lowest
22:58
Speaker 3: consumer sentiment serve for the University of Michigan ever.
23:02
Speaker 2: And it's like literally people could have there.
23:05
Speaker 3: It's really a bifurcation between the equity markets and what
23:08
Speaker 3: people are filling in their pocketbook.
23:10
Speaker 2: And when you got four.
23:11
Speaker 3: Dollars and fifty cent average gasoline prices across the country.
23:14
Speaker 2: People are going to vote you out. I don't care
23:16
Speaker 2: who you are.
23:17
Speaker 3: They just vote now with their pocketbooks and they just
23:20
Speaker 3: do not want to stand for higher level prices, especially
23:24
Speaker 3: when you have half of the financial media or all
23:26
Speaker 3: of the financial media, a lot of the media couching
23:29
Speaker 3: this war as it was unnecessary. A rand doesn't have
23:32
Speaker 3: luclear weapons and blah blah blah blah blah that you
23:34
Speaker 3: just have this constant banging of this wasn't even necessary.
23:38
Speaker 3: And look what we're paying at the gas price, you know,
23:40
Speaker 3: at the gas pump.
23:40
Speaker 2: It's a problem.
23:42
Speaker 3: So the Federal Reserve is going to have a massive
23:44
Speaker 3: deal on how do we deal with these higher inflation
23:48
Speaker 3: rates and not be able to cut yet we really
23:50
Speaker 3: can't afford to finance anything beyond two years because the
23:53
Speaker 3: Gild curve is just too high on the back end.
23:56
Speaker 1: Do you okay? So just to get Claire, because I
23:59
Speaker 1: want to make sure I understand where your position is.
24:02
Speaker 1: Would you be in the rate hike camp right now
24:06
Speaker 1: for twenty six like what the odds are coming in,
24:08
Speaker 1: or would you be in a higher just basically a pause,
24:12
Speaker 1: continuation of pausing multiple times.
24:15
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna I think that Worship would have
24:18
Speaker 3: a really difficult time, even if he was hawkish. I
24:21
Speaker 3: think you'd have a really really difficult time coming in
24:23
Speaker 3: how he's come in with who nominated him and hike rates.
24:28
Speaker 3: He would have to have such clear data. And you know,
24:31
Speaker 3: one of the things that Trump has said, and one
24:32
Speaker 3: of the things that he wants the BLS to do
24:34
Speaker 3: is collect data in a different way more quickly.
24:36
Speaker 2: It's dated, it's out, you know, it's not.
24:38
Speaker 3: The surveys aren't being completed, and so I feel like
24:41
Speaker 3: we're going to get a push to get better data.
24:43
Speaker 3: And as long as that, you know, I think they're
24:45
Speaker 3: going to have to wait a while before they would
24:46
Speaker 3: expect a hike because clearly this administration wants cuts, and
24:50
Speaker 3: so a hike is not anything that was on anyone's radar.
24:52
Speaker 2: But again, this war changes everything.
24:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, well it does change everything, and I think
24:58
Speaker 1: we're going to be dealing with that for some time.
25:01
Speaker 1: The other factor that's going to play into this is
25:03
Speaker 1: how the economy is doing to your point, you know,
25:06
Speaker 1: around a lot of other areas. You know, it's beyond
25:10
Speaker 1: what we're going to see on productivity with AI, what
25:12
Speaker 1: kind of jobs numbers are going to continue to come
25:14
Speaker 1: through for the summer months, And then you know the
25:17
Speaker 1: other issues you've got jer Own palse still setting as
25:20
Speaker 1: a governor there within the FED, which is ironic, who
25:25
Speaker 1: could easily be another swing vote, you know, in terms
25:28
Speaker 1: of how this plays out, even down the road, if
25:30
Speaker 1: you were even to get one if you gave it
25:34
Speaker 1: a one in ten chance ten being best of a
25:39
Speaker 1: rate cut in twenty six, would you give it? What
25:44
Speaker 1: a rate cut somewhere in twenty six could be way
25:47
Speaker 1: down in the maybe the December of the November meeting.
25:50
Speaker 3: I would say, based on where we are right now,
25:53
Speaker 3: we have less than a thirty percent probability of or
25:55
Speaker 3: rate cut in twenty six.
25:58
Speaker 1: Going to lightning round here. Here we go, like Jurassic
26:01
Speaker 1: Park Life will find a way to pay stable coined yields.
26:04
Speaker 3: What do you think I agree on thousand agree?
26:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, some way or another, we're going to get stable
26:10
Speaker 1: coin yields of some sort coming through this bill. It's
26:14
Speaker 1: actually centralized exchanges who should be worried about deposit flight
26:18
Speaker 1: to DeFi versus banks worrying about deposit flight to centralize exchanges.
26:24
Speaker 1: What do you think?
26:26
Speaker 3: No, I don't think so. I think it's the banks.
26:27
Speaker 3: They're going to be the loser on this banks.
26:31
Speaker 1: I'm in the middle here because I do see DeFi
26:34
Speaker 1: becoming a very active area, especially if we get clarity
26:40
Speaker 1: alignment with where DeFi tools can be. Because we're starting
26:44
Speaker 1: to see so many institutions use it. And this could
26:46
Speaker 1: be interesting just because of that in itself. So I'm
26:49
Speaker 1: gonna go on the fence there. Trump has shown a
26:52
Speaker 1: suspiciously surprising amount of restraint not calling out bankers, citadel
26:58
Speaker 1: anti crypto dams. Why you think he's just busy with
27:01
Speaker 1: everything else or something else.
27:04
Speaker 3: Maybe he's you know, maturing in the job and realizing
27:06
Speaker 3: that it's probably not best to insult the people that
27:08
Speaker 3: you might need.
27:09
Speaker 2: To help vote for you or vote you vote your way.
27:11
Speaker 3: So I put me in the middle because I feel like,
27:15
Speaker 3: you know, there have been some comments, but you know
27:17
Speaker 3: now that I know middle is an option. There you go.
27:20
Speaker 1: You're gonna no more middles for you. Okay, You're gonna
27:24
Speaker 1: go down the If Clarity doesn't pass or becomes bank slop, uh,
27:30
Speaker 1: Trump will lose retail crypto voters.
27:33
Speaker 3: Absolutely, yes, yeah, true, okay, very I agree.
27:37
Speaker 1: And when we say Trump, what we're talking about is
27:39
Speaker 1: really Republicans and the MAGA movement. Banning stable coin yields
27:44
Speaker 1: and rate hikes equals a recipe for economic disaster but
27:49
Speaker 1: massive bank profits here.
27:51
Speaker 2: I agree, absolutely agree.
27:53
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, the banks can only delay things
27:56
Speaker 3: for us, but they also can't actually really hurt us
27:59
Speaker 3: by making the hub be outside of the United States.
28:02
Speaker 1: Just that is a big one. Trump wouldn't dare invading
28:07
Speaker 1: another country before midterm. Do you think you'd do it.
28:11
Speaker 3: I'm gonna agree on this one because I feel like
28:13
Speaker 3: he's gonna say his plate full with a ran.
28:15
Speaker 2: I feel like, yes, I think this is true.
28:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's I think he's figured out that
28:19
Speaker 1: now that was not as good a move. That wasn't
28:21
Speaker 1: am I wish we.
28:22
Speaker 2: Had done it last year, but whatever.
28:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, each new war chaos event ironically spreads panic and
28:29
Speaker 1: bitcoin adoption. Do you think.
28:31
Speaker 3: Interesting because we had a pullback, you know when the
28:33
Speaker 3: war first broke out, but then last month April, we
28:36
Speaker 3: had massive you know, two billion plus ETF inflows net inflows.
28:41
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna say, I'm gonna say true.
28:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in the true camp, just because I think
28:47
Speaker 1: there are people around the world, you know, even if
28:50
Speaker 1: you look at people in Dubai, you know that start.
28:52
Speaker 1: I talked to several who started to liquidate other assets,
28:56
Speaker 1: moving into bitcoin so they could move quickly, you know,
28:59
Speaker 1: and that flue to physical gold people getting out of
29:01
Speaker 1: flat gold. There was a big rush for physical gold
29:04
Speaker 1: because they were worried about transport, so that's an issue
29:08
Speaker 1: Trump fights Kevin Warsh. If the first thing worsh does
29:11
Speaker 1: is a rate high, do you think he'll get upset
29:13
Speaker 1: and start calling him out like he does Pal Or
29:15
Speaker 1: do you think he'll pass?
29:18
Speaker 3: I think he'll try to be a little more tactful
29:20
Speaker 3: and give him a little bit more of a rope
29:22
Speaker 3: to hang himself in some more leeway than immediately. But
29:25
Speaker 3: I do think if he, if a war, starts going
29:28
Speaker 3: down the hawkish war path, which I know he wants
29:32
Speaker 3: to reduce the balance sheet, which is very hawkish and
29:35
Speaker 3: it sucks equentity out of the system.
29:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, I think Trump will go after him
29:40
Speaker 1: because I do believe that Trump has put so much
29:42
Speaker 1: on that of rate cuts, and he knows, just like you,
29:45
Speaker 1: you and I've talked about, is this refit is important
29:49
Speaker 1: and the US is getting killed on it. Kevin Warsh
29:52
Speaker 1: has the spine to stand up to Trump's law fair pressure.
29:55
Speaker 1: Do you think so?
29:57
Speaker 2: I think so?
29:57
Speaker 3: I think true, And I do think that there. I
30:00
Speaker 3: hope they're going to work collaboratively. So far I believe
30:02
Speaker 3: that they will.
30:03
Speaker 1: Everybody I've talked to has said that this guy is
30:06
Speaker 1: actually a good pick for FED. He could end up
30:09
Speaker 1: really being a special one. We'll see. Remember he was
30:12
Speaker 1: in the two thousand and eight debacle that came out
30:15
Speaker 1: of a very interesting time. He was I don't know
30:17
Speaker 1: if I would say he was on the right side,
30:19
Speaker 1: but one trillion dollar Anthropic rug pulling secondary market share
30:24
Speaker 1: highlights that public our private and public markets are broken.
30:28
Speaker 1: You know what happened here. I didn't want to pull that.
30:30
Speaker 3: I mean, yes, but if you want to just give me,
30:33
Speaker 3: like your synopsis.
30:33
Speaker 1: Big secondary markets. You know, the people were investing in
30:37
Speaker 1: a private they were going off into the secondary markets
30:41
Speaker 1: with those with those particular securities, and Anthropic basically said, no,
30:46
Speaker 1: you can't do that, that's void. So it's basically their
30:48
Speaker 1: offering that they voided to some of those companies who
30:51
Speaker 1: had purchased them. But it RUG pulled the secondary market.
30:54
Speaker 1: So there's no more secondary market for Anthropic out there.
30:57
Speaker 1: So does that mean this market is possibly broken for
31:01
Speaker 1: these secondary markets like.
31:02
Speaker 3: This, Yeah, I mean I feel like that that it
31:07
Speaker 3: is broken. I mean there's a lot of people that
31:08
Speaker 3: through secondary markets, meaning that for the audience's benefit, that
31:12
Speaker 3: there that the investors not on the capex table, they're
31:14
Speaker 3: not listed on the Capex table as an initial investor,
31:16
Speaker 3: and they're not known publicly as an investor because it's
31:19
Speaker 3: being sold. I have initial shares before pre i PO,
31:23
Speaker 3: and now I'm selling it in the in the back market,
31:25
Speaker 3: and so I do feel like this is probably overall
31:30
Speaker 3: a good thing, although in general and I and I
31:34
Speaker 3: that's just because of my IPO you know experience. However,
31:37
Speaker 3: I would say, if you can buy in UH before
31:40
Speaker 3: the I PO and then literally usually sell out on
31:43
Speaker 3: the I p O day or the day after when
31:45
Speaker 3: it really takes off, you know, if it really hot
31:47
Speaker 3: hyper bearer you know, jumps hyper jumps from from the
31:50
Speaker 3: initial offering price, then you can get your money back
31:53
Speaker 3: and make a profit right away.
31:54
Speaker 2: But then you want to wait the six months to.
31:56
Speaker 3: A year to buy back in when when the real
31:58
Speaker 3: monetization value comes. But yeah, yeah, this is this is
32:01
Speaker 3: clearly an issue, and I feel like what's happening, Paul.
32:04
Speaker 3: The reason that these things are that are important and
32:07
Speaker 3: is that it's taking so much longer, and there's multiple
32:10
Speaker 3: seed rounds of funding prior to IPO, whereas usually IPOs
32:14
Speaker 3: looked at as this is your funding round that now
32:17
Speaker 3: we've got these really advanced companies coming onto IPO much
32:22
Speaker 3: later in their life cycle than what we've used what
32:24
Speaker 3: we've been especially with that technology that we've been seeing,
32:26
Speaker 3: and that's the issue. So I do feel like there's
32:28
Speaker 3: been a lot more of a delay of giving people
32:31
Speaker 3: access to these companies than what we've been used to
32:33
Speaker 3: in the past.
32:34
Speaker 1: For sure, poly market is the greatest checks and balances
32:39
Speaker 1: on and out of control private market.
32:43
Speaker 2: I love Polly Market. I love all of these.
32:45
Speaker 3: You know, these publicly traded and when you have to
32:48
Speaker 3: bet money then it's it's scientifically proven that that is
32:51
Speaker 3: a more accurate when you've got to back it with
32:53
Speaker 3: your own money. So these things are absolutely libertarian tools
32:58
Speaker 3: to show the world what the tu feeling of people is.
33:01
Speaker 3: Like I wouldn't trust we should go to all of
33:03
Speaker 3: this for polling, and we should no longer trust you know,
33:07
Speaker 3: these public polls that are so off, that haven't been
33:10
Speaker 3: right in debt you know several elections.
33:12
Speaker 1: Market kind of did that in the last election, you know.
33:15
Speaker 1: So I think we'll see and we'll find out if
33:18
Speaker 1: it's true. Uh, checks and balances are in play coming
33:21
Speaker 1: on the midterms, because if it starts showcasing and I
33:24
Speaker 1: think right now, for instance, that you guys can go
33:26
Speaker 1: check Polly Market. I didn't pull it up, but currently
33:30
Speaker 1: in terms of Senate possibly going Republican, it flipped back.
33:34
Speaker 1: So it's been back and forth, so very interesting to
33:37
Speaker 1: see how it's performing. In terms of the political side.
33:41
Speaker 1: Trump pardons everyone involved with World Liberty five. If there's
33:46
Speaker 1: an ethics rule that gets included. What do you think.
33:49
Speaker 3: I mean, this is Clobrasher's wish, right, this is what
33:51
Speaker 3: she said.
33:52
Speaker 2: I won't vote for this, and without.
33:53
Speaker 3: An ethics rule, oh gosh, that would be really difficult
33:58
Speaker 3: for him to do. Clearly, I have to say no
34:02
Speaker 3: on this, but I just don't think that it's going
34:04
Speaker 3: to get in the act. I just it would just
34:06
Speaker 3: be so blatant, right for him to do that, and
34:08
Speaker 3: also kind of like that this would.
34:09
Speaker 1: Be before he leaves office. This would be.
34:11
Speaker 2: Before you okay, before he leaves office.
34:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, I still have to say no. I just I
34:17
Speaker 3: just think it's so blatant.
34:19
Speaker 1: I think I think he would do it. Oh wow, Okay, yeah,
34:22
Speaker 1: I think he would pardon Okay, all of the I mean,
34:25
Speaker 1: it's mostly his kids. I mean, just like you know,
34:27
Speaker 1: Biden pardoned Hunter or someone pardoned Hunter. That's the that's
34:34
Speaker 1: the point Trump abandon abandons the Iranian war before his
34:38
Speaker 1: White House FC fight.
34:42
Speaker 2: No, no, not not.
34:44
Speaker 3: I don't think not on So no, not not. That's
34:47
Speaker 3: his birthday too, I'm pretty sure.
34:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen to Rebecca. It's always fun doing these lightning
34:52
Speaker 1: rounds with you. Thank you so much for coming in today.
34:55
Speaker 1: You're always a handful to deal with, and thank you
34:58
Speaker 1: for that.
35:00
Speaker 2: That's good, I hope.
35:01
Speaker 3: I think that's that's very very benign. I'm not exactly
35:05
Speaker 3: sure what it means, but okay, it.
35:06
Speaker 1: Means good because normally I get people who are and
35:10
Speaker 1: I'm not discounting all of our guests, but sometimes they
35:13
Speaker 1: just won't answer, you know, I ask them the question
35:16
Speaker 1: straight on they want. You always give us answers, which
35:18
Speaker 1: is what I like. That's my point.
35:20
Speaker 2: Thank you for coming, Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
35:29
Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
35:32
Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
35:35
Speaker 1: The link is in the description.