Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - $ASTS and Human Psychology - Real Talk

Transcript

Anpanman - $ASTS and Human Psychology - Real Talk · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

• 0:06
  This is the AST Space Mobile podcast, just basically.
• 0:11
  From the phone, be seamless, regardless of where you are.
• 0:15
  We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
• 0:17
  satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we
• 0:22
  have is very, very, very large. Good evening, everybody.
• 0:31
  Hope everyone is doing well after a long day.
• 0:35
  I'm pretty tired actually, but I hope everybody is hanging in
• 0:41
  there. I know somebody who've had
• 0:43
  trouble sleeping just given how the markets have been.
• 0:46
  I've I've had trouble sleeping too.
• 0:49
  But yeah, if you guys could give me a thumbs up.
• 0:51
  I just want to make sure I'm not talking to myself here.
• 1:01
  We're going to assume that everybody can hear me because.
• 1:05
  OK, I see a thumbs up there. All right.
• 1:08
  Yeah. So I wanted to get people
• 1:10
  together and talk a bit about human psychology because I think
• 1:14
  it's probably a good time to discuss this.
• 1:19
  Yeah. I, I don't have a set agenda.
• 1:21
  I took down a few notes of, of things to cover, but I think
• 1:26
  over the past few days and weeks, we've seen some people
• 1:31
  behave certain ways and it's truly understandable.
• 1:34
  I mean, humans are human for and, and it's just part of, you
• 1:39
  know, natural behavior. And so I wanted to kind of go
• 1:42
  through why these things happen and what, what the motivations
• 1:45
  are. And and, you know, I think I
• 1:48
  think folks can get, you know, fired up when they see some of
• 1:53
  these things, but just recognize that people have certain
• 1:56
  tendencies and they may not, Yeah, necessarily have the
• 2:01
  awareness to understand that. And or so, you know, sometimes
• 2:04
  people do have motivations that aren't necessarily in the best
• 2:09
  interest of others. But but yeah, it is what it is.
• 2:12
  And you do you do you and I'll do me.
• 2:15
  But I think I think just having a discussion about it maybe,
• 2:20
  perhaps will help people become more aware of their own
• 2:22
  tendencies. But anyway, I, I, it sounds like
• 2:26
  I'm just, I'm just talking about fluffy stuff, but but yeah,
• 2:30
  let's dig in. So, yeah, what, So what happened
• 2:33
  today? I mean, I think there was some
• 2:35
  stuff on Twitter where people went back and forth, you know,
• 2:38
  someone who I won't name, kind of retweeted what I, what I,
• 2:45
  somebody and I posted about AC Space Mobile and said, you know,
• 2:50
  they were involved at, they got involved when the market cap was
• 2:53
  smaller, smaller. I think it was like 1/2 billion
• 2:55
  and it's gone up 20X. And so now it's probably closer
• 3:00
  to the end versus the beginning. And from a risk perspective,
• 3:03
  perhaps people should sell, sell some or sell all and then go
• 3:08
  into three different ideas that this person was pitching.
• 3:12
  And so initially when I saw that I was like, OK, I mean, yeah,
• 3:17
  you can make that argument to a degree that and and I've been
• 3:21
  telling people in spaces all along, depending on your own
• 3:24
  financial situation and your involvement and your exposure,
• 3:28
  just given how much AST space bubble has run, it is always
• 3:33
  good to re evaluate your situation.
• 3:35
  And if you, you know, just just a simplistic standpoint, if you
• 3:40
  are able to take out your cost bases and you've made a lot of
• 3:45
  money, if you can take out your cost spaces and, and also
• 3:47
  satisfied money for taxes, which is really important because you
• 3:51
  don't a big mistake that people make in retail investing is
• 3:55
  they, they sell things, they immediately reinvest and then
• 3:59
  they don't put it set aside money for taxes.
• 4:01
  And then all of a sudden when it comes time for tax day, which,
• 4:05
  which you know, can be April, depending on how many extensions
• 4:08
  you get, July or October, they're all some down money.
• 4:13
  And then they because they reinvested everything and then
• 4:16
  they don't have enough for patches.
• 4:18
  So don't make that mistake. Definitely if you do take
• 4:22
  profits and you owe money in, for example, 2025, set aside
• 4:26
  that money, don't touch it and make sure that you have enough
• 4:29
  for to pay for taxes. But going back to, you know,
• 4:36
  understanding your position, if you, you know, simplistic way is
• 4:41
  taking your cost basis and then letting the rest ride.
• 4:43
  Like, you know, if you have a small position relative to your
• 4:47
  net worth, if it's a few percentage points, which you
• 4:51
  know, I think it's pretty common, or if it's bigger, it
• 4:53
  could be 10 percent, 20%. Some of some of us are crazy,
• 4:57
  might have 80% of our net worth in this name.
• 5:00
  And that's not by that's not something that came from
• 5:04
  irresponsible behavior. It's actually for a lot of
• 5:07
  people, they invested very early and it grew to a very large
• 5:10
  percentage of the wealth. And so other things come into
• 5:14
  play if you, if you're sitting on a massive long term gain, you
• 5:20
  have to complete taxes. For example, I started to talk
• 5:22
  to my wife about, hey, would we ever consider moving away for a
• 5:27
  year out of New York City? And because you know, if you add
• 5:32
  up to state and city tax, that's 15%, it's another 15% on top of
• 5:36
  what you already owe, which is pretty nuts.
• 5:38
  And so if you're sitting on 10s of millions of games, that
• 5:42
  really can move the needle. And so, and that discussion
• 5:47
  extends also to your retirement accounts, right?
• 5:50
  Like if you're, if you, if it's not a Roth IRA, but it's a, a
• 5:54
  typical, you know, IRA accounts or 4O1K or whatever it is,
• 5:58
  right? Like if you have tax advantage,
• 6:00
  ability to invest and you, you compound gains without paying
• 6:05
  taxes. But at the end when you, when
• 6:07
  you get to retirement age, if you live in a high state in city
• 6:12
  tax bracket like New York City or in California, maybe it's
• 6:16
  worth at retirement. Hey, you know what, maybe we
• 6:19
  should move to Tennessee or for Texas because that money that
• 6:24
  you pay at the end when you do take withdrawals, like and, and
• 6:29
  people trust their accounts. Like you can actually not pay
• 6:32
  those taxes as long as you move and you can prove that you moved
• 6:35
  somewhere else. You know, New York, you have to
• 6:38
  live outside of the city and state for over 183 days and
• 6:42
  they're really like tenacious about checking your cell phone
• 6:46
  bills, like your location, like all this stuff, you know, making
• 6:49
  sure that you actually live outside the the state.
• 6:53
  Otherwise, like they'll come back and get the taxes from you.
• 6:55
  But anyway, by going back to what I was saying before, yeah.
• 7:00
  And anyone situation where you're sitting on top of the big
• 7:03
  gain, tax planning comes into effects.
• 7:06
  You know, do I, do I sell? Do I, you know, when you have
• 7:09
  such a big gain and it's long term gains, That's why a lot of
• 7:12
  people, I mean, some folks on Twitter like, why aren't you
• 7:15
  just trading this thing, just slapping it around?
• 7:17
  It's like, well, I'm sitting on a long term gain.
• 7:19
  And once I monetize that, I've got to pay taxes and then I
• 7:23
  restart the clock all over. Like I've got to whatever I buy
• 7:26
  back, it's going to go up, become short term gains and
• 7:28
  until I hold it for a year and then goes long term.
• 7:30
  And so, so it's, it's, it's never as simple as people say
• 7:36
  like you, yeah, I can trade things around in my retirement
• 7:40
  accounts because that's, you know, that that tax Bill's not
• 7:43
  that's deferred for until I retire.
• 7:46
  But but yeah, you know, I think the other, the other thing I
• 7:51
  mentioned is if you have a big position that's contradicted
• 7:55
  like AC, JS Mobile, it is it's important to understand the
• 7:58
  context, right? Like I think for somebody who
• 8:00
  bought in at $40, then their, their risk reward, the way that
• 8:05
  they think about what, what people are referred to as margin
• 8:08
  safety and risk reward is different than someone who has a
• 8:12
  cost basis of three or two, right?
• 8:14
  Like that person can probably stomach the volatility because.
• 8:18
  And by the way, like there's very few people who bought in
• 8:20
  that two like they're, they right off the RIP, Like they
• 8:23
  bought a $2.00, you know, position.
• 8:26
  And, and there are a few which I've talked to her and God bless
• 8:29
  them, they were smart. But a lot of people actually in
• 8:33
  bought and hired if it was like 10 or 12.
• 8:36
  I, I remember there was one person who bought it at 20 when
• 8:38
  this, when this back ripped. And then it like after, right
• 8:41
  after they bought it cratered and they went through that.
• 8:44
  They obviously went through fire holding all the way to 2 and
• 8:47
  adding all the way down, but then riding all the way back up.
• 8:51
  You know, I, I was in it, I mean, for me it's a bit
• 8:54
  different because I was in warrants and I bought like I
• 8:56
  guess probably my average on my warrants was around $1.20 a
• 9:01
  dollar, 30, which was great for a period of time.
• 9:04
  And then of course they went as low as 33 cents, which was not
• 9:08
  fun. But yeah, when once I exercise
• 9:11
  those warrants, might the cost basis in the stock ended up
• 9:14
  being like, you know, I guess so it's like 12, no, $13 or
• 9:20
  something like that. But when you have a low cost
• 9:24
  basis, it's different, right. And if you've, if the position
• 9:28
  has become outside because of the the position is appreciated,
• 9:32
  then you have a very different perspective than for example,
• 9:34
  someone who is buying stock today at 99.
• 9:37
  And so I think it's important to have that context where the
• 9:44
  decision is going to be very different for for everybody.
• 9:46
  But I do think it is smart and I've told numerous people that
• 9:52
  if you get to a point where you can be financially independent
• 9:55
  and you, let's say like, I don't know, you have a mortgage.
• 9:59
  Let's say you have $1,000,000 mortgage on your house or, and
• 10:03
  your house is worth, I don't know, $2,000,000.
• 10:05
  Or if you're, if you have a mortgage on a house, if your
• 10:07
  house is like $600,000, you have a mortgage that's 300,000 left.
• 10:11
  And your position in AST has grown to, I don't know, like one
• 10:16
  and a half million dollars like you, it's probably not a bad
• 10:19
  idea at some point to monetize a portion of that and pay off your
• 10:23
  mortgage, right? And the reason why I say that
• 10:26
  is, you know, I, I, I truly believe in taking out your cost
• 10:33
  basis. One of the things that I, I've
• 10:34
  been trying to tell people, I guess over the last year is
• 10:37
  like, you know what, what was your net worth before you
• 10:40
  entered this position? Like if you had a net worth of
• 10:43
  $1,000,000 and all of a sudden you're sitting on a position
• 10:46
  that's worth $5,000,000, like I think it's not a bad idea to
• 10:50
  just take out your original net worth and, and then the rest of
• 10:55
  it. Yeah.
• 10:55
  And, and it's tough. I know it's super tough.
• 10:57
  Like there are people who want to own a few 100,000 shares or
• 11:03
  they have a, the target of like, I need to get to 20,000 shares
• 11:06
  or, and, and, and it's tough to give up your shares.
• 11:12
  It was just kind of funny because I mean, I, I go through
• 11:15
  the same thing too. Like if I ever I ever have to
• 11:17
  sell shares, I I always think of like, oh, am I is this like what
• 11:21
  Steve Larrison refers to? Is this the Amazon right?
• 11:24
  Like selling Amazon at two or three dollars?
• 11:26
  Or I remember my wife when she worked in tech.
• 11:29
  She's like, Hey, you should buys this, this company called
• 11:31
  Spotify or not Spotify, Shopify. And she had like a, a small
• 11:36
  position, I think it was like $10,000 in their retirement
• 11:38
  account. And, and you know, I didn't
• 11:40
  really know that much about the company.
• 11:41
  I was like, yeah, whatever. And, and of course, like Shopify
• 11:43
  just completely took off. It was like an absolute home
• 11:46
  run. Of course, like I sold those
• 11:48
  shares on her behalf because I was, I didn't, after I analyzed
• 11:51
  it, I was like, yeah, whatever, it's an e-commerce company.
• 11:53
  But I think like it's easy. The thing about investing is
• 11:57
  like it's easy for people to, when you're, when you're not
• 12:01
  familiar with an investment. And This is why I think people
• 12:04
  are so wed to AST space mobile in that when you work, when
• 12:08
  you've done so much due diligence and you understand a
• 12:10
  company inside out and you understand it better than any
• 12:14
  institutions out there, it can be really difficult to to give
• 12:19
  that up, right. And and if you really think
• 12:21
  you've caught lightning in the bottle, which I think we are, we
• 12:24
  have done here, people become very passionate about it.
• 12:28
  And you know, we've, we've become this cult, but I think
• 12:32
  like it's interesting because for people looking at from the
• 12:36
  outside looking in, they're like, what is this?
• 12:38
  Like there's this company doesn't have any revenue yet and
• 12:43
  you know, it's going to get crushed by Starling.
• 12:45
  I mean, whatever. We can go through the whole
• 12:46
  litany of reasons why. And, and that's the thing, like
• 12:50
  when you're not invested, you don't own this company, you're
• 12:54
  going to come up with the other reason why you shouldn't own
• 12:56
  this company and why those, those kooks, those crazy people,
• 12:59
  like they're going to be wrong. And you're like rooting.
• 13:02
  And this is where like jealousy and envy comes.
• 13:05
  You're going to root for it to fail because you're like, Oh my
• 13:08
  God, that thing has gone up so fast, so quickly.
• 13:12
  It doesn't make sense. And it has to come back.
• 13:13
  And you know, I, I saw some people replying like, it's gone
• 13:17
  up too fast and it has nothing goes up like that and, and stays
• 13:21
  up there. It has to come back down.
• 13:22
  It's like, well, you, you guys missed like when we when we went
• 13:27
  down quickly and we were at like $1.90 or $2.00, right?
• 13:31
  Like they missed all the pain to get to this point.
• 13:35
  And so, yeah, it's, I think I think there is a bit and and you
• 13:42
  can get a bit myopic, right, Which is why you try to be
• 13:45
  honest with yourself because it's when you're riding high
• 13:49
  and, you know, if the stock price is at 100, you feel really
• 13:52
  good. And it's like, oh, I'm on top of
• 13:53
  the world and there's nothing that could go wrong.
• 13:55
  And, and the market finally gets it.
• 13:57
  And then this talk has a draw down to 36.
• 14:00
  It's like you've got all these people on Twitter that just come
• 14:03
  out and there's like a bell needs to tweet.
• 14:06
  And Scott, what are they doing? Everything is wrong.
• 14:09
  I can't believe that satellites delayed and they just come up
• 14:12
  with a whole host of like reasons why they're being
• 14:17
  wronged and and the stock shouldn't be there and the
• 14:20
  company needs to do something about it.
• 14:21
  It's just that I mean that that's just like human
• 14:23
  psychology. It's pretty funny, but it but
• 14:26
  you know, when you've gone through this enough times, you
• 14:29
  understand and and I joke about this, but it's true.
• 14:34
  You know, applaud these for people who were here from
• 14:37
  Reddit, but when the Reddit when the subreddit AC space mobile
• 14:42
  and people are when it's like bloody murder and they're losing
• 14:44
  their shit. I mean, that's usually the time
• 14:47
  when we bottomed. That's a bottom signal.
• 14:48
  Or conversely, like when you have some of these accounts like
• 14:53
  stone fox capital, like this loser or pivot capital, who
• 14:58
  pivotal capital is who mysteriously has disappeared or
• 15:03
  or not a capital or whatever, who any number of bears like
• 15:07
  when they start coming out of the woodwork and you start, you
• 15:09
  know, doing their celebration dance that they they tweet and
• 15:12
  say I told you. So that's usually a bottom
• 15:15
  indicator as well. And so it's, it's, it's
• 15:19
  interesting to get to, you know, on the one hand, it's annoying
• 15:22
  to see this stuff. On the other hand, it's like
• 15:24
  these are really valuable signals.
• 15:28
  And so it's just, you know, if you are more trading oriented,
• 15:30
  you can take advantage of that. And so I mean, over the last few
• 15:34
  weeks, I think I don't usually talk about numbers, but I
• 15:38
  figured, you know, let's just have an honest conversation.
• 15:41
  I guess over the last few weeks I've probably made 3 or $4
• 15:43
  million on trading AST spaceball options because like Vol was so
• 15:48
  cheap. It got so cheap.
• 15:49
  And people before they had this run up, like people were pretty
• 15:53
  depressed and upset about, about, you know, the satellites
• 15:58
  being delayed. But then you had the company
• 16:00
  telling you like, oh, it's coming.
• 16:02
  Like where it's, you know, and we've, we've had this discussion
• 16:05
  of like things are inevitable. Like it's inevitable.
• 16:07
  It's coming like the yeah, can they slip?
• 16:09
  Sure. But then, you know, you're
• 16:12
  getting in terms of risk reward and, and where the options were
• 16:17
  pricing you were getting, it was like it seemed like a decent
• 16:19
  bet. And, and it's kind of funny
• 16:21
  because like we're, we're at this point now where the company
• 16:25
  is about to launch this multi, you know, launch campaign and
• 16:29
  they like commercial service is about to roll out and you have
• 16:31
  people kind of giving up. And, and that's why I tweeted
• 16:34
  this, that meme of the football players like running to the end
• 16:37
  zone and then dropping the football right before the end
• 16:39
  zone. It's like, what are you guys
• 16:41
  doing? Like you can't.
• 16:42
  And I got criticized by someone for, for saying, oh, you're,
• 16:48
  you're, you're encouraging retail to take risks and you
• 16:51
  know better. And it's like, no, that's you
• 16:53
  totally missed the point. I'm telling people that for the
• 16:56
  people who've held this position for 12345 years, who went
• 17:02
  through all that pain and due diligence and sleepless nights
• 17:05
  and whatever, like we're at the cusp of why we started this
• 17:09
  whole thing, like why we invested.
• 17:11
  And so how can you just, how can you give up at the, at the, the
• 17:15
  end zone, right? And so that, that was my point,
• 17:18
  which again was lost on this particular person who was like,
• 17:23
  oh, you're teaching retail to, to take undue risks and not be
• 17:30
  smart with their money. It's like, well, no, their
• 17:32
  retail doesn't have to act like a hedge fund.
• 17:36
  We depending on a person's particular situation and I
• 17:40
  remind them that you, you should be prudent in terms of taking a
• 17:45
  risk and and not, you know, size this position in particular to a
• 17:49
  point where you're not going to recover from it.
• 17:50
  But then at the same time, if you know what your own and the
• 17:54
  company is on the cusp of doing something truly special.
• 17:56
  And of course there's risk, right?
• 17:58
  Like you can have a satellite that goes up and it bricks, it
• 18:03
  doesn't work or you know, something with launch could
• 18:05
  happen. But we are at a point now where
• 18:10
  the company is well capitalized. It's got a ton of satellites in
• 18:15
  production and ready to go and and it has launch paid for.
• 18:20
  And so if you were to, you know, if you were to put that risk on
• 18:29
  back in 2022 when we're launching Blue Walker 3 and we
• 18:31
  were, we were running the company by the seat of our pass
• 18:34
  because we didn't have enough cash to make it through a big
• 18:39
  delay or a a negative event. But if Lou Walker 3 failed or,
• 18:45
  you know, something bad had happened, then yeah, I mean, the
• 18:47
  company would have probably come back, but would have obviously
• 18:50
  the stock would have been, would have gotten demolished and and
• 18:54
  they would have had to raise money at a terrible levels.
• 18:56
  But but we're now we're at a point of scale and, and, and,
• 19:02
  you know, capitalization and we've got partners who are well,
• 19:06
  capital as well where we can take those hits.
• 19:09
  And it's not a company ending, you know, event.
• 19:13
  And so there is this like when you, when you talk with people
• 19:19
  and they're like, well, you know, this could either be a
• 19:22
  home run or could be a zero. It's like, no, you don't
• 19:24
  understand the situation. There's no 0 scenario for this
• 19:28
  company now. Like we're at a point where
• 19:30
  things have developed enough where it's going, you know, if,
• 19:34
  if there's, if the launch fails or if the satellite doesn't work
• 19:38
  properly, you know, Oh yeah, there's going to be a draw down
• 19:40
  for sure. Like maybe the stock goes down
• 19:42
  3040% or maybe goes down 20%, I don't know.
• 19:46
  It probably doesn't go down as much because we've got, we
• 19:49
  basically have two satellites right now, FM 1 and FM 2.
• 19:51
  They're going to launch almost simultaneously.
• 19:54
  And so if something bad happens to 1, then the other one's still
• 19:57
  going to go up. And so, but this whole notion of
• 20:00
  like it could go to 0. Like that's just absurd.
• 20:04
  It doesn't make any sense. Like there was someone who said,
• 20:09
  well, the margin of safety at 100 is, is way worse than
• 20:12
  emergency safety at 5:00. Well, no, it's not like do you
• 20:16
  remember why the stock was at $5?
• 20:18
  Like that was back when let's go back in time.
• 20:21
  That was back in 2022-2023. And then of course 2024 when I
• 20:28
  mean let's let's go back to 2024 when we only had one satellite.
• 20:35
  We only, you know, we were trying to cobble together
• 20:39
  additional capital to make sure we had enough runway and we were
• 20:43
  building block 1 satellites. And, and that you know that the
• 20:47
  block one, the five Bluebird satellites, we didn't have any
• 20:52
  definitive commercial agreements yet.
• 20:55
  We didn't have any. I mean, we we had some
• 20:59
  indications that, you know, Firstnet was wanted to work with
• 21:02
  us, but of course we didn't have a test I buy.
• 21:05
  So who knows? Like, you know, we we got to get
• 21:08
  or we did have Blue Walker three.
• 21:09
  Sorry, I didn't think about it. We had Blue Walker 3 and we
• 21:11
  were, you know, first net was contemplated working with us and
• 21:16
  then but we didn't. And we had some initial
• 21:18
  understandings that perhaps there were some government
• 21:20
  contracts. But it's disingenuous to say
• 21:23
  that the margin safety is better at 5.
• 21:26
  I mean, mathematically, yeah, it makes sense.
• 21:28
  Like 5 is a lower number and you're not risky as much at 5
• 21:32
  versus at 100. But that's intellectually
• 21:35
  dishonest, right? Like at 100, the company has
• 21:38
  anywhere between 1 1/2 to $2 billion in cash.
• 21:41
  We've got like golden Dome potential coming.
• 21:43
  We've got 8 defense contracts. We've got definitive commercial
• 21:48
  agreements with Rockets and Verizon 18 T Vodafone, Google,
• 21:55
  you know, American Tire by the way, we also have an agreement
• 21:58
  with them. And then you know, we have Bell
• 22:01
  Canada and possibly Saudi Telecom like on the way shortly.
• 22:06
  And then, you know, we've got testing results that have come
• 22:10
  in and we're you know, we're I mean, this is a huge one, right?
• 22:13
  Like we are on the cusp of getting FCCUS market access
• 22:19
  approval. Like it's a very different story
• 22:23
  where we are or, or level of progress where we are at 100
• 22:26
  versus where we were at 5. And so for anyone to make that
• 22:30
  like, oh, you know, at five, it was much better than than it was
• 22:33
  at 100. Mathematically, I guess sure.
• 22:37
  But you know, I, I can, I can present to you two different
• 22:40
  companies, one at $5 that is on the cusp of bankruptcy versus
• 22:44
  one at $100 that is about to cure cancer.
• 22:47
  Like which one you want to own? I'll take the one that's $100
• 22:50
  like every day and twice on Sunday.
• 22:52
  Like it intellectually, it's just a dishonest like argument.
• 22:57
  It doesn't make any sense. And so, so I think, you know,
• 23:03
  when, when people are throwing around those types of arguments,
• 23:06
  you really have to take a step back and think like, OK, well,
• 23:09
  what does it mean? Like why is the stock at 100?
• 23:11
  Is it because, is it because like the companies make
• 23:14
  progress? Is it partially because like the
• 23:16
  market is frothy? Is it because, you know, good
• 23:19
  things are about to happen or, you know, And so I think you've
• 23:24
  got to take that all into account and obviously like,
• 23:26
  yeah, the markets are frothy. And by the way, like I, I don't
• 23:30
  think anybody is arguing against that.
• 23:32
  Like for all intents and purposes, like we've entered
• 23:36
  into or, or we're on the cusp of 0 interest rate like
• 23:42
  environment, right, where rates are coming down, you know, the
• 23:47
  economy slowing down. And what was it like the Fed,
• 23:52
  Powell yesterday said that they're going to stop, they're
• 23:55
  going to stop quantitative tightening.
• 23:57
  And so, yeah, like risk is we're kind of at this point and where
• 24:00
  risk is starting to come back on.
• 24:02
  And so I, I remember I shared a chart with a line capital the
• 24:07
  other day, which showed like Goldman Sachs hedge fund VIP,
• 24:12
  you know, the names that all the hedge funds own versus the most
• 24:15
  short names and index has completely cratered over the
• 24:20
  last few weeks. And part of that I think is
• 24:22
  because it's just a risk on environment.
• 24:24
  And so all these heavily shorted names have like totally
• 24:27
  rebounded and you know, some of them.
• 24:29
  And I'm sure I see Space mobile has benefited to a degree, but
• 24:33
  that index is now returned to a level where it was, I think back
• 24:37
  in 2023. And so, so obviously you're
• 24:40
  going to see, I mean, you see all the hedge fund accounts on
• 24:43
  Twitter just crying bloody murder, like, oh, this is not
• 24:46
  right. These companies shouldn't be
• 24:48
  trading up here. It's going to end badly.
• 24:50
  And and yeah, I get it, guys. Like you're, you're on the wrong
• 24:53
  side to trade. Like you're at your shorts are
• 24:55
  blowing up in your face. And so, yeah, shit happens.
• 24:58
  Like that's, that's, that's how finance works.
• 25:01
  Like yeah, you're going to have these periods where you have
• 25:06
  volatility and if you can't write it out, if you're not
• 25:08
  positioned, then then you know, sorry.
• 25:11
  You know, I think, I think that's part of the advantage of
• 25:14
  retail where, you know, we, we don't have a risk manager and
• 25:21
  you know, you can hold for a long period of time if you have
• 25:23
  a draw down. Like if as a retail holder, if
• 25:26
  you have a A10 or 20% draw down your portfolio like it's, it's
• 25:29
  not a problem as long as you know, obviously, maybe your
• 25:32
  loved 1 won't be happy about it, but as long as you understand
• 25:36
  the risk that you're under that you're taking, you can ride the
• 25:39
  volatility. Whereas if you have a 5 or 7%
• 25:41
  drawdown at any, you know, pod shop, then you're basically your
• 25:46
  capitalist cut. And if you go down to 10, then
• 25:49
  you're, you're, you're gone, You and your team are gone, right.
• 25:51
  And so it's a very different approach.
• 25:54
  And, and I think it's important to understand that context as
• 25:57
  well. When people are pontificating
• 26:00
  and lecturing on Twitter, it's like, well, yeah, you're, you're
• 26:03
  you have to abide by certain rules.
• 26:06
  But for retail, we don't. And so, yeah, sorry, you do.
• 26:11
  I don't. But that doesn't mean you have
• 26:13
  to like, shit on what I'm doing. But anyway.
• 26:17
  But yeah, so going back to my, my timeline, my, my notes here,
• 26:24
  I think it's, it is hard like for, for people who are running
• 26:30
  a concentrated book that has conviction.
• 26:33
  What I mean concentrated, you know, for me, that's I'm usually
• 26:37
  invested in maybe a handful of names and something like trade,
• 26:40
  right? But I'm probably invested in
• 26:42
  only 5 or 6 things at a time because I want to know what I'm
• 26:45
  invested in. But then when you're, when you
• 26:49
  have a small book and it's concentrated and then you have
• 26:51
  conviction of his names. And AST is by far like the
• 26:54
  absolute biggest. Like it's, it's a big percentage
• 26:56
  of my net worth. It's hard, it's hard to do, it's
• 27:00
  hard to own something in that size.
• 27:04
  And that's why I think like when you have the opportunity to
• 27:08
  take, you know, the mental apartment, the ability to take a
• 27:13
  win, which is like selling your cost basis or, or taking out
• 27:17
  your net worth or doing something, it's huge because
• 27:20
  then you, the mental, the mental game changes all of a sudden
• 27:25
  where you're like, Oh, I had to win.
• 27:27
  And now I'm right. I'm playing with house buddy.
• 27:30
  And so when there's ups and downs, I really don't care,
• 27:32
  which is true. Like I've been, it's kind of
• 27:35
  funny, like as we've gone up or if we go down, like I'm kind of
• 27:39
  in, in a different way from kook, like I'm kind of
• 27:41
  indifferent because I've already like already won.
• 27:44
  And then the rest of this, which you have a pretty massive
• 27:47
  position. The rest of it is just house
• 27:51
  money and, and I can mentally compartmentalize and be like,
• 27:54
  OK, this is great. It's like life changing and I
• 27:57
  can set up my, you know, generations are set for life.
• 28:00
  But then the same time it's like, I really believe in this
• 28:03
  company and and I enjoy it and I want to continue to stay
• 28:07
  invested, right. And so, but with that, of
• 28:10
  course, like during difficult periods of time, you know, when,
• 28:15
  when the stock has gone down, it's like, you know, there's the
• 28:17
  mental anguish of like, am I missing something?
• 28:20
  What if something's wrong? You know, all these things,
• 28:22
  right? And but I think for most face
• 28:24
  mobile investors, we've gone through so much of that that I
• 28:28
  think people truly understand they've reached his like point
• 28:31
  of Nirvana, right where they understand, oh, the, the, the
• 28:38
  day-to-day volatility or the, the FUD out there, like it's
• 28:41
  just part of the game. And I understand, but I have
• 28:43
  conviction in what the company's going to do.
• 28:45
  Like, you know, someone throws Starlink at you and it's like,
• 28:47
  OK, yeah, they'll they'll eventually get there and they'll
• 28:50
  be a good, they'll be good competition.
• 28:53
  But this market's going to be big enough for two big players,
• 28:56
  right? And so in a duopoly, the
• 28:59
  economics are typically really good.
• 29:00
  So I'm OK with that. That's fine.
• 29:04
  But I think going back to emotions like, so this is where
• 29:08
  it kind of gets a little tricky. When you do sell, you have to
• 29:13
  have the ability to say, OK, I'm going to be fine with it.
• 29:15
  Like, you know, I'm going to what if I miss out of this?
• 29:19
  And this is where like you've got to figure out on your own,
• 29:21
  like if you sell 10% or 20% or 30%, are you OK with like the
• 29:27
  stock continue to go up? And, and that that can be hard
• 29:31
  for people to like to be at peace with that because then
• 29:36
  there's this whole range of emotions.
• 29:37
  And, and that's why I like, you know, people when they sell,
• 29:41
  I've seen people they like completely, you know, cash out
• 29:43
  and then, and then they have regret or, or FOMO or, you know,
• 29:47
  if it's, if they sell 50% or 30%, it's like just be at peace
• 29:51
  with what you do. And, and it's OK if like the
• 29:54
  stock goes up. And if it's, and having the
• 29:56
  forbid the stock goes down, like, oh, you can buy some back.
• 29:58
  But it's interesting because like that money does weird
• 30:02
  things to people. And so, you know, whether it's
• 30:05
  regret or FOMO, like once people sell something that they
• 30:09
  believed in, I think, and this is where this is kind of the
• 30:13
  crux of the discussion today. It's like there's a certain
• 30:16
  level of decorum that I think people should have or awareness,
• 30:21
  because I think like, it's the, the, the thing in Twitter is it
• 30:26
  can be pretty toxic, right? Like if people openly say I sold
• 30:30
  something and they believed in it, but for whatever personal
• 30:34
  reasons they sold, then that's fine.
• 30:36
  And, and people shouldn't like there's you shouldn't be ashamed
• 30:39
  for selling something because everybody has their.
• 30:43
  I mean, who knows, like maybe you're, you've got sick family
• 30:46
  members or you need to take care of some financial obligations.
• 30:50
  Like nobody should give you a hard time about it.
• 30:52
  But the. But the nature in which you do
• 30:54
  that is important, right? So, and if you want to be
• 30:58
  honest, and for some people like me and others who, who discuss
• 31:03
  ideas like it is important to some extent, like on one hand, I
• 31:06
  don't feel obligated to tell people like, Oh, I'm buying this
• 31:08
  where I'm selling this, but but beat down inside morally, I'm
• 31:11
  like, Oh, I should let people know that I feel bad if I, if I
• 31:16
  like, hey, I, I got into something and then I never tell
• 31:18
  them I exited. Like there's, there's something
• 31:20
  that that I don't feel right about.
• 31:22
  So it's often times I will say like, Oh, I've I've exited this.
• 31:26
  And then people say, why did you do it?
• 31:27
  Like is it, is it because there's influencing events?
• 31:30
  Like no, I just, I set a target for myself and I'm out of this
• 31:34
  thing or the circumstances changed or whatever it is,
• 31:38
  right? It could be any, a number of
• 31:39
  things. And, and I think this is
• 31:40
  important where people have to learn to, you know, ultimately
• 31:47
  it's your responsibility, right? Like you, What I like to say is
• 31:51
  I used to, I used to tell this to my, to the analyst that I
• 31:54
  worked with when I was a portfolio manager.
• 31:56
  I was like, Hey, you got your job is to bring at bats, bring,
• 32:00
  bring me at bats. And then I'll decide like which
• 32:02
  to swing at, which ball to swing at.
• 32:03
  And then because I swung at the ball, if I don't run, then
• 32:06
  great. And we, we, we make money and,
• 32:08
  and we're all happy. And, and then if I, if I swing
• 32:11
  in a ball, we miss and it and we lose a ton of money, then that's
• 32:14
  on me. Like I didn't do, I didn't do
• 32:16
  enough work. You brought me an interesting
• 32:18
  idea. It didn't turn out.
• 32:19
  That's not on you. It's on me because I swung the
• 32:21
  bat and that's how people should look at Twitter or social media
• 32:26
  and investing. It's like people will bring up
• 32:28
  interesting ideas, but it's up to you to do research and to
• 32:31
  figure out what your risk tolerances are.
• 32:34
  And you know, did they actually do any research or, you know,
• 32:36
  and, and then you're ultimately the decision maker.
• 32:39
  And so you pull the trigger like no one's, no one's forcing you
• 32:43
  to do that. And then it's up to you to
• 32:45
  decide like when you want to get out or, or maybe buy more or
• 32:49
  whatever it is, right. But I think it's important to
• 32:51
  have responsibility. And so when, when it comes to
• 32:55
  selling there and when I mentioned before, like there is
• 33:00
  a certain level of decorum and there's no written rules or
• 33:02
  whatever. But I think like for people who
• 33:05
  are aware there's, there's right ways and wrong ways of it,
• 33:09
  right? Like if heaven forbid or not,
• 33:12
  heaven forbid, whatever, I I could do it.
• 33:13
  Like if I came out tomorrow and said, Hey, you know what, my
• 33:16
  circumstances have changed and I'm selling AST physical.
• 33:19
  And by the way, like if I did that and it was for no other
• 33:23
  reason than just my personal, you know, let's say I, I really
• 33:28
  wanted to travel the world and, and I've, I've given up all
• 33:32
  material possessions and I'm going to take the family travel
• 33:34
  world. And tomorrow I say, you know
• 33:35
  what, I'm going to sell this stock.
• 33:38
  Then people I should, I should come out, I, I will come out and
• 33:40
  say, Hey, I've sold the stock. Here are the reasons why I sold
• 33:44
  the stock and the best of luck everybody, because like I still
• 33:47
  believe in the company, but my circumstances have changed.
• 33:49
  That's fine. Like, and people should be like,
• 33:51
  oh, good for you man, I'm so happy for you.
• 33:54
  You did all this work and you know, you had a high level
• 33:58
  conviction. You went through all this pain
• 34:00
  and suffering, but you believed and, and now like you're reaping
• 34:04
  the the rewards, right? And they should be happy for
• 34:07
  you. And then, you know, you walk off
• 34:08
  into the sunset or whatever. It shouldn't be like, oh, I
• 34:12
  decided to sell and then people are like, what's wrong with you?
• 34:15
  That's just that's just like the wrong approach, right?
• 34:19
  It's not the type of I don't know if you had friends and you
• 34:24
  know, are you the friend that's jealous that someone does well,
• 34:26
  are you the friends? Like, hey, good for you, man.
• 34:28
  I'm so happy and I'm I'm glad that we can share this moment
• 34:31
  together. Like what what kind of person
• 34:33
  you want to be right? So then taking that a step
• 34:36
  forward, it's like for social media accounts, if you were
• 34:42
  look, people again, people can sell for whatever reasons.
• 34:45
  And but what's weird is like when people sell and let's say
• 34:49
  like, you know, let's take a Steve space mobile for example.
• 34:52
  Like if I, if someone is sold at like 70, maybe they sold half
• 34:57
  their though, I don't know, they sold half the position at 70 and
• 35:00
  then they sold all of it at 80. And then all of a sudden, you
• 35:03
  know, they start posting like, oh, hey, I sold.
• 35:05
  And here's all the, here's all the risks that really made me
• 35:07
  uncomfortable. And I think like the margin of
• 35:11
  safety is bad and the ritual warrant is bad.
• 35:12
  And, you know, it's just a good time to sell.
• 35:14
  And maybe there's like a few things, a few, you know, things
• 35:19
  left, but you're really at the end of of the trade.
• 35:22
  Then it's kind of like what's what, what, what's your angle on
• 35:28
  this? Like where, where are you coming
• 35:29
  from? Right, because you know, if you
• 35:33
  are someone who's been advocating for it and then you,
• 35:35
  you sell and then the stock goes up even higher and then you,
• 35:38
  you, you start burning, right? You feel like, which is, look, I
• 35:44
  get it, like there's, there's people that want to pontificate
• 35:47
  and are like, well, you should, you know, they want to tell you
• 35:51
  what to do, right? They're they're going to lecture
• 35:53
  and say, well, it's at this point it's really risky.
• 35:55
  You should take it off or whatever, but it's not the right
• 35:59
  way to, to go out right. Like I think if you are coming
• 36:04
  at it from a, a point at like with good intentions, right
• 36:09
  where you're, you're exiting and you're telling people exactly
• 36:13
  why you're exiting. And by the way, like there,
• 36:15
  there was a Rocket Lab investor, Tim X-94.
• 36:19
  He also was a Steve Spaceable investor.
• 36:21
  I remember. And he's pretty controversial.
• 36:24
  And when I read the stuff, sometimes I'm like, whoa, that's
• 36:26
  pretty, that's pretty spicy. But I remember he got a lot of
• 36:30
  heat for anything Rocket Lab and, and look, Rocket Lab did
• 36:33
  just fine without him, right? But, but I think like, but, but
• 36:38
  he gave his reasons and those were his reasons alone.
• 36:41
  And then and you know, you got to respect that.
• 36:43
  Like, OK, like you've made a logical decision for yourself.
• 36:47
  That's fine. But it's another thing like if
• 36:50
  you're selling and you're still bullish about it, but then but
• 36:54
  then, you know, you've then you've completely sold down and
• 36:57
  then the stock gets away from you.
• 36:58
  And then you start coming in with like these hot takes of
• 37:01
  like risks that were already well known and then start making
• 37:06
  comparison to, well, you know, like the stock is way more risky
• 37:09
  here at 100 than it was at 5:00. Well, yeah, but what's the
• 37:14
  context? Like what what the stage
• 37:16
  development was a company and at 5 versus where it is now at 100.
• 37:19
  And so, yeah, I think, I think, I think people it, if you're in
• 37:27
  those instances, it's like, look, you, you can sell and
• 37:31
  that's fine. And, you know, some people, I
• 37:33
  guess like feel the need to justify why they sold, which is
• 37:37
  fine too. Like I guess a baby.
• 37:39
  And I've tend to find like people on Twitter use it as like
• 37:42
  therapy. Like sometimes when things are
• 37:45
  down, like why are things down and all these bad things are
• 37:48
  happening? Or when they sell, they're like,
• 37:49
  well, I sold For these reasons and I feel really good.
• 37:52
  And This is why you should sell too.
• 37:53
  It's like, no, you can, you can tell people why you sold, but to
• 37:58
  project that onto other people, like come on, man, Like be
• 38:02
  genuine about it, like have some self-awareness, right?
• 38:06
  You don't need to justify why you sold.
• 38:08
  Like everybody sells for their own reasons.
• 38:10
  But I think like you can, you can tell what people are
• 38:17
  insecure and, and when they start using that insecurity to,
• 38:24
  to them justify what they did and to project that on others,
• 38:27
  right? And so that's, that's kind of
• 38:29
  like the key thing where then you start hearing the arguments.
• 38:33
  Well, it's gone up too fast and like it's all going to come
• 38:35
  crashing down. And you know, and, and I think
• 38:38
  it's important, as I mentioned before, like understanding what
• 38:41
  angle or, or what perspective people are coming from, right?
• 38:44
  Because the context is important, right?
• 38:46
  Is someone telling you this as a hedge fund manager, or are they
• 38:50
  telling you this as somebody who sells subscriptions?
• 38:52
  Like that's a very different, we joke.
• 38:55
  It's a different ball of wax than, you know, like just a
• 38:59
  retail investor who by myself, who has a different and by the
• 39:04
  way, like I've got my own biases and perspective as well.
• 39:07
  And so, you know, I I've already told people like I'm an
• 39:10
  unapologetic bull. And so when you take what I say
• 39:14
  about AC suitable, you should take away grain of salt, right,
• 39:16
  Because I've got like rose colored glasses to degree.
• 39:19
  I mean, it's, it's what has enabled me mentally to get to
• 39:22
  this point versus, you know, getting basically psyching
• 39:27
  myself out of the investment and selling whatever it was at $2.00
• 39:31
  or however on the way, right. But but you know, it's like I
• 39:36
  said before, like it's human psyche is, is pretty interesting
• 39:40
  when it comes to money because we, I'll give you an example
• 39:42
  like we had this, there's like various chats, right?
• 39:46
  Whether it's like Discord or there's like Reddit, there's
• 39:49
  Twitter, there's people in Facebook too.
• 39:52
  I'm not like I this is a funny story.
• 39:55
  I asked in my real, a real person, my, myself, I asked to
• 40:00
  join the Facebook group because I was like curious to see what
• 40:02
  was in there and I was not allowed in.
• 40:04
  So this funny thing I note there but.
• 40:08
  There was this one guy I remember in this, in this
• 40:11
  Twitter chat of ours and he was like an Uber bull and he would
• 40:13
  just talk constantly about like the company and, and the
• 40:18
  positive, you know, the progress of his making and how it's going
• 40:20
  to change the world and financially.
• 40:23
  You know, the earnings powers, week grade and all this other
• 40:25
  stuff, right? And then within it was like a
• 40:30
  span of a week, like he, this guy came in hot.
• 40:34
  He was just like hot and heavy. Well, I don't know about these
• 40:38
  delays and what about the ASIC? Like, you know, there could be
• 40:41
  issues there, like, you know, in terms of getting that produced
• 40:45
  on time. And it went from it was night
• 40:47
  and day just in one week. It was this guy was super
• 40:52
  bullish to then he was just spreading all kinds of, you
• 40:55
  know, FUD. And at first I was like, OK, you
• 40:58
  know, like he's got some concerns.
• 41:00
  And, and so people were, you know, the dressing, his
• 41:03
  questions, but he, it went beyond just like asking
• 41:06
  questions. He was like pushing a narrative.
• 41:09
  He was like pushing this narrative pretty hard.
• 41:11
  And, and like, I remember, I remember thinking like what,
• 41:15
  what happened to this guy? Like what's going on?
• 41:17
  Like I maybe he's, he's snapped, like he's lost it.
• 41:21
  But then, and I remember at one point I was like arguing with
• 41:25
  him. I was like, Oh, you know, what
• 41:27
  you're saying just doesn't make any sense.
• 41:29
  And then, and then it was like a day later, all of a sudden he
• 41:33
  like left the chat and then and, and by the way, like during this
• 41:37
  period of time, he was, he was tweeting stuff that was like
• 41:39
  pretty negative. And then and then he left the
• 41:41
  chat and then it was like a day after that his his account, like
• 41:46
  just like he completed it. And then remember hearing from
• 41:51
  me, I was like, oh, you know, that guy, what happened?
• 41:54
  Is he, I think this is really when the stock was at I guess it
• 41:58
  was like at 30 or something, like the guy sold.
• 42:01
  He actually sold and and I think he sold his like entire
• 42:04
  position. But yeah, I know he sold his
• 42:05
  entire position and because he thought like the time was right
• 42:09
  and there's something negative was going to happen possibly.
• 42:12
  And then the stock like ripped and he was so beside himself.
• 42:16
  He was so upset that he he came into the chat thinking like he
• 42:19
  could influence things. He was like so negative.
• 42:23
  And then and then, yeah, so, so that that ugly part of of
• 42:30
  himself came out where he was like, I need, I missed it.
• 42:34
  The FOMO kicked in and I want the stock to go down.
• 42:36
  And I'm just going to tweet negative things.
• 42:38
  I'm going to try to influence all these people to be negative
• 42:41
  and concerned and and so I can get the stock back down so I can
• 42:45
  buy back in. But what was interesting is
• 42:48
  that, you know, so this guy shared it with someone else who
• 42:51
  was in the chat and he had this self-awareness to be like, Oh my
• 42:55
  God, what am I doing? And like, this is not, this is
• 42:58
  not cool. And so he actually left the chat
• 43:01
  on his own accord and then he deleted his Twitter account.
• 43:07
  And I, I think, you know, some of you, you out there know who
• 43:10
  this person is. But but yeah, like I've.
• 43:14
  And that's not like the first time I've seen that.
• 43:16
  I've seen other instances where people have sold out and they
• 43:21
  then turn negative on something. And it's it.
• 43:24
  And this is part of human nature.
• 43:25
  Like, I think, you know, I've experienced that too
• 43:28
  professionally where if you're at a hedge fund and you, you
• 43:32
  talk with a number of people and you've done well in position and
• 43:35
  you sell and you've you, you feel this overwhelming sense of
• 43:38
  like, did I do something like, did I make a mistake?
• 43:41
  Like, and if the position after you do that, you start becoming
• 43:45
  all of a sudden a more balanced, you know, the more balanced view
• 43:49
  of like, well, you know, what about like when you're talking
• 43:51
  to other people about the idea, you're like, well, I don't know
• 43:53
  what about these risks and this, and this because you have this,
• 43:58
  this like feeling that you don't want to miss out or, or you, you
• 44:03
  don't want to be wrong or you want to be right for, for
• 44:06
  selling at the time that you did.
• 44:09
  And it's just natural, right? Like I, we've seen some other
• 44:13
  people who are, whether they're deeply rooted to this position,
• 44:19
  to this stock or kind of loosely on the outside, but are
• 44:22
  involved, you know, change their tune, right?
• 44:24
  Like when they had a bigger position there, they're more
• 44:28
  positive, optimistic and bullish.
• 44:30
  And then when they their position goes down, they become
• 44:34
  more balanced and they, they start bringing up the what ifs.
• 44:37
  And so it's just natural, right? And I think I'm not, I'm not
• 44:41
  saying like, by the way, like I'm not being negative about
• 44:45
  that because it's just part, it's just natural.
• 44:48
  And but I think it's important for everybody to understand the
• 44:51
  context of like where is it coming from, right?
• 44:53
  And so if someone has is, is telling you that the risk reward
• 44:59
  is not as good, maybe everything's priced in and
• 45:02
  they've gone from a 10% position to a 2% position, then then
• 45:08
  yeah, by by default, like their, their human tendencies are going
• 45:11
  to tell them like they've made the right decision and they're
• 45:15
  going to want to push a narrative that's going to be
• 45:17
  more balanced, right? And so it's just natural.
• 45:20
  No, I'm not faulting them. I mean that that's part of the
• 45:24
  game at investing too. It's where, you know, for
• 45:27
  example, when I, when I enter a position, there's this balance
• 45:31
  of like, OK, part of me is like, because I, it's just kind of my
• 45:35
  personality. It's like, I want to tell other
• 45:36
  people about it and I want, you know, and maybe it'll be, it'll
• 45:40
  be, it'll work out. And, and there's, there is this
• 45:42
  like positive feeling that you get when you come across an
• 45:46
  interesting idea and works on. You're like, oh, hey, we all won
• 45:49
  together. But then there's another part of
• 45:50
  you where you're just like, I shouldn't share with other
• 45:52
  people because I maybe I want to buy more.
• 45:54
  Maybe it'll go, hopefully it'll go down and I can buy more and
• 45:56
  then then I'll share it with people.
• 45:58
  But it's like all these things, it's like human psychology,
• 46:01
  right? It's, it's, it's just something
• 46:04
  that you have to grapple with. And so there's and you know, I
• 46:09
  just, and then there are some trades that you do where you're
• 46:11
  like, I don't want to tell anybody because I'm doing
• 46:12
  something stupid. So maybe it'll work out, maybe
• 46:15
  it won't, but I definitely don't want to get people in trouble.
• 46:19
  But I think when it comes to, you know, understand where
• 46:25
  people are coming from, the other thing that I would, I
• 46:27
  guess I would add in their queue is options.
• 46:30
  And this is like the big one, right?
• 46:32
  Like usually the people who scream bloody murder and the
• 46:36
  most vocal when things are not going well are the guys who are
• 46:39
  long, short dated options, Like long, short dated calls are
• 46:42
  long, short dated puts where they, they like, dear God, I
• 46:47
  need the stock to go up or dear God, I need the stock to go
• 46:49
  down. And they'll be very vocal about
• 46:51
  it. They'll, they'll like, you know,
• 46:53
  they'll be very, they'll, they'll make sensational type of
• 46:59
  tweets where, you know, management need to do something.
• 47:01
  And my God, this company doesn't communicate.
• 47:04
  Or if they, if they want stock to go down, they'll, they'll,
• 47:07
  you know, they'll say, Oh, the, the thing's been delayed and who
• 47:10
  knows, like if it'll work and, and you know, maybe Verizon's
• 47:13
  going to walk away from, from AST space mobile.
• 47:16
  Usually it's like people who have short dated positions, like
• 47:20
  they're, they're like the most Vulgor or whatever it is, right?
• 47:23
  And I think that's important to understand too, because there
• 47:28
  are some people out there who sell covered calls and they,
• 47:31
  they think it's like a great strategy, which it can be.
• 47:34
  It means it's basically writing insurance, right?
• 47:37
  When you sell a covered call, you're giving away all the
• 47:40
  upside. You're collecting some income,
• 47:41
  but you've got all the downside, right?
• 47:44
  But often times people when they sell covered calls are like,
• 47:47
  hey, look, here's AC face Mobile like it's at 50.
• 47:51
  What was it? I guess a few weeks ago it was
• 47:53
  at $50 and I'm going to sell these like $60.00 calls and $70
• 47:57
  calls and I'm going to collect a, a healthy $4.00 and $2.00 or
• 48:01
  whatever it was, right? And, and then of course, the
• 48:04
  stock rips in their face and then all of a sudden they're,
• 48:08
  they've gone from being positive about the stock to bringing up
• 48:12
  all the things that could go wrong.
• 48:13
  It's like, well, you know, have you heard about this company
• 48:16
  called Starlink? And I don't know if there's
• 48:18
  launch capacity. And, and you know, how do we
• 48:21
  know that these satellites even work?
• 48:23
  And it's like, guys, come on. Like it's just, you're, you're
• 48:27
  being so transparent. Like you're you, you sold not
• 48:31
  only like, and by the way, some of these people are like, oh, I
• 48:33
  sold covered calls and then and then they they'd come bearish
• 48:36
  also. And it's like, Oh yeah, I guess
• 48:37
  that didn't work out for you. It's like I remember looking at
• 48:42
  Wall Street bets the other day and and the subreddit to where
• 48:46
  people are posting like, you know, fuck me, like I sold these
• 48:50
  calls or my quits got evaporated.
• 48:52
  And yeah, like that's that's the game you play.
• 48:54
  Like the in options, you're going to be contorted into
• 49:01
  hoping for outcomes that aren't actually going to be in your
• 49:05
  control or often times are out of your control.
• 49:07
  And so, you know, for the guys that when the stock rebounded to
• 49:13
  50 from 36 and people were selling call options, I was I
• 49:18
  was telling people like, why, why are you selling them?
• 49:20
  Like, yeah, things might get delayed here and there.
• 49:22
  You might you might get luck out and collect the premium Scott
• 49:25
  free. But we are going back to that,
• 49:28
  that you know, that the gift of the guy running with the
• 49:31
  football and dropping right for the end zone like you are, you
• 49:34
  are that person like you're selling ball, which by the way,
• 49:37
  like I think volatility on options was at a 343 year low in
• 49:43
  September and October for AST space bubble.
• 49:46
  So not only are you selling your upside, but you're selling like
• 49:48
  so cheaply, but people are doing it.
• 49:51
  And and so I think, you know, I think that's where some of the
• 49:56
  the angst has come from too. For for all of these people who
• 50:00
  advocate like selling cash secured puts or selling calls,
• 50:03
  it's like, OK, yeah. I mean, if you're going to
• 50:06
  advocate those strategies, then fine.
• 50:08
  But you know, don't cry when things go against you and then
• 50:13
  start, you know, telling people the opposite of what you were a
• 50:18
  few weeks far. But yeah, I think going back to
• 50:22
  what I was saying before about people's motivations and this
• 50:25
  this applies to let's you know, we'll talk about our friends
• 50:28
  Stone, Fox Capital, this guy who, you know, yeah, I guess he
• 50:34
  has a subscription service and he's been an AST bearer, I guess
• 50:39
  for the last, I don't know, he he popped up like recently, I
• 50:42
  guess for the last year, year and a half.
• 50:45
  But yeah, he, this guy, if you look at his Twitter engagement
• 50:49
  and you know, he's like a, a contributor to CK Alpha, no one
• 50:54
  really engages with them. I don't know how many
• 50:56
  subscriptions he has. He tells that he has 50,000
• 50:59
  followers on CK Alpha, but you know, it is what it is.
• 51:02
  But I think for people who sell subscription services, and
• 51:06
  that's a lot of people like, and by the way, like if you're, I
• 51:09
  get it, like some people are made to research.
• 51:12
  And, and this is, this is true in the investing world where
• 51:17
  Southside research or analysts who work in hedge funds, like
• 51:20
  they're really good at researching things.
• 51:22
  They're not necessarily, or they may not have the DNA to pull the
• 51:25
  trigger or to, to, to manage risk or put risk on.
• 51:29
  And that's OK. And, and so selling subscription
• 51:31
  services is fine. It's a totally legit way to, to
• 51:35
  make your life livelihood. And especially for young people
• 51:38
  who may not have, who are building wealth and are trying
• 51:42
  to build a business like that's great.
• 51:44
  But I think also it's important to understand what, where
• 51:47
  subscription service sellers are coming from, right?
• 51:50
  Like they were there to put out like bait, you know, to
• 51:53
  engagement and laid on markers. And what I mean by that is for
• 51:58
  script people who do subscription services, like
• 52:00
  they'll, they'll lead, they'll lead their, their engagement by
• 52:04
  saying I bought this stock at 2 or I bought this stock at 5.
• 52:08
  And of course, like whatever stock they're talking about,
• 52:09
  it's like at 200 or whatever it is.
• 52:12
  And it's like, if someone's leading you with that type of
• 52:16
  line to build credibility, like then that you're you're like,
• 52:20
  red flag should go off. It's like, OK, should I be
• 52:22
  really listening to this guy? Like, why do they need the
• 52:25
  contents of what they put out should be more important than
• 52:27
  like laying, like trying to be in their chest.
• 52:29
  Like, well, I bought Tesla at $5.
• 52:31
  OK, good for you. Like, you were lucky, right?
• 52:34
  I mean, about how to be more lucky.
• 52:36
  But tell me like, what's your what's your investment thesis?
• 52:39
  What are you doing? What are you about right?
• 52:41
  So I think it's important like to understand the motivations of
• 52:44
  these people like what are they selling?
• 52:46
  Like when they're tweeting and maybe they're picking a fight
• 52:49
  with, I don't know, AST space mobile shareholders like what
• 52:52
  are they doing? They're they're trying to engage
• 52:54
  people, they're trying to bring people in and the important
• 52:56
  thing for people who sell services are and I talked about
• 53:00
  I had mentioned this before is like they often are trying to
• 53:04
  place markers, right. What do you mean mean by that is
• 53:06
  like markers meaning like they're going to tweet a the,
• 53:10
  the stock market is going to crash in the next three months.
• 53:14
  And they tweet that earlier this year.
• 53:16
  And then they tweeted again two months ago and then they tweeted
• 53:19
  again now. And then they tweeted again two
• 53:20
  months, two months from from here.
• 53:23
  Eventually maybe they'll be right and they'll be able to go
• 53:25
  back and say it and they'll retweet and say, see, I told you
• 53:28
  guys the stock market was going to crash or, you know, this
• 53:32
  guy's doing Fox Capital. I remember when the stock went
• 53:36
  from like 50 to 36, he went back to one of his markets and he's
• 53:39
  like, see, I told you that the stock was going to go down.
• 53:42
  And of course, like, yeah, I went down 36.
• 53:44
  By the way, Like for any high gross, you know, speculative
• 53:51
  company that it is on the verge of, you know, revenues, but is
• 53:55
  is not there yet. Like any growth company.
• 53:58
  I mean, you name it, like even mature companies like Meta, Meta
• 54:02
  or Google, like they had massive drop downs, right?
• 54:04
  Like for any growth company, when you have a you should
• 54:09
  expect a 30 to 30% draw down. Like that's a feature.
• 54:12
  That's not a bug, which just happens when there's uncertainty
• 54:15
  and people are trying to discount the future like
• 54:18
  potential of a company. That's what's going to happen.
• 54:20
  But this guy tweeted out, you know, some warnings and then of
• 54:24
  course, like the stock went down to 36, not having nothing to do
• 54:28
  with what he was saying. But of course, like, that was
• 54:31
  this like visceral reaction to SpaceX buying Echostar's AWS
• 54:37
  Ford H block Spectrum. And people are losing their shit
• 54:40
  over that. And then of course, hedge funds,
• 54:42
  the smart guys, the smartest guys in the room who are long
• 54:45
  Echostar, like, hey, I'm going to go short AC space mobile
• 54:47
  because it's a great pair. It's going to be a great care
• 54:50
  trade, which then, you know, they shorted that thing.
• 54:53
  They shorted ASD all the way down to 36.
• 54:54
  And then look at them now, like what an absolute shit chill for
• 54:59
  them. I mean, what a terrible trade.
• 55:01
  But but yeah, these guys who sell subscription services, like
• 55:05
  they're there to get their name out.
• 55:08
  They want to call, they want to take credit for.
• 55:11
  And, and that's something like there's when they tweet, they're
• 55:14
  going to talk about, they're going to talk about their
• 55:17
  credibility and how they got things right and how they're
• 55:20
  doing things better than others. And, and that's where like I
• 55:23
  joke with like with top, it's like they're going to stunt,
• 55:27
  stunt on you, right? Like they're going to try to
• 55:30
  build up the credibility because that's what they're selling
• 55:32
  their service. And so you'll see.
• 55:35
  I mean, you guys all know, like when you see on Twitter someone
• 55:38
  selling their service, they like show their stock price
• 55:41
  performance or their performance.
• 55:43
  Be like you need to ask your whatever subscription service
• 55:46
  that you have now if they have real audited results like I do,
• 55:49
  or like whatever it is, right? Like it's a, it's a, it's a
• 55:54
  contest between them. But, but I think understanding
• 55:58
  that context is important because for the most part, like
• 56:00
  these guys, unless you're just doing it for entertainment, like
• 56:03
  typically just ignore them because they're they're, they're
• 56:07
  trying to get your attention and then hopefully get your dollars.
• 56:10
  And there are some good ones out there, by the way, like MC
• 56:15
  Cunha, this, this guy that I've gotten to know who, you know,
• 56:20
  he's also invested in, but I he's made some great calls,
• 56:22
  young guy. I think he's smart.
• 56:24
  His right UPS are, are, are really good.
• 56:26
  By the way, I'm not selling his service, but I'm just giving
• 56:29
  props to him. But but yeah, I think it's
• 56:32
  important to understand, you know, where those guys are
• 56:35
  coming from and their, their goals.
• 56:37
  And so and honestly, like don't take them seriously.
• 56:40
  Like they can, they can write negatively about any number of
• 56:43
  tickers. And by the way, people are free
• 56:44
  to do that. They can write negative, they
• 56:46
  can write positive. You know, if you're short
• 56:48
  something and write something positive about them, you know,
• 56:50
  it's a free world, right? But it's important to understand
• 56:54
  like what they're what, where they're coming from, how they
• 56:57
  eat. Like, you know, for, for some of
• 57:01
  the guys who sells subscription services, you know, are they
• 57:03
  really managing risk? Like are they, they're selling
• 57:06
  subscriptions, but are they actually putting capital to work
• 57:08
  in these ideas? Like how much capital they're
• 57:10
  putting to work like yeah, and long AC space mobile, but I own
• 57:13
  one share, you know, So what does that mean?
• 57:15
  Like that's not really having skin in the game.
• 57:19
  And now it's one share is like 100% of the net worth them.
• 57:22
  I guess they do. But yeah, it's it's important to
• 57:25
  understand where those guys are coming from.
• 57:27
  And then the other thing is hedge funds, right?
• 57:30
  So I mean they're always going to talk their buck.
• 57:33
  And so if someone's running a hedge fund, they're going to
• 57:35
  they're going to talk their buck.
• 57:37
  And this includes AC bulls too, right?
• 57:39
  Like they, they're kind of aligned with us.
• 57:42
  If they're long or if they're short, they're running counter
• 57:46
  to us. But but yeah, they have a tough
• 57:48
  job. And so I think I think it's
• 57:51
  important, like for guys who are running hedge funds, when, when
• 57:55
  people are kind of lecturing about risk management and what
• 57:59
  things that are silly that they're not involved in a video
• 58:01
  on the other side of, you've got to understand, like they're,
• 58:04
  they, they come at from a very different angle, right?
• 58:07
  Like they, they've got risk parameters, they've got limited
• 58:10
  partners who invest capital that they've got to report to.
• 58:13
  And so they don't have your interest in mind all the time,
• 58:17
  right. And so often times they will
• 58:20
  talk their book. Yeah.
• 58:21
  The famous one is Bill Ackman. When he when, when he's long
• 58:25
  something, he'll go on to CNBC and talk about it.
• 58:27
  Or, you know, if he's short something, he'll go on, he'll go
• 58:30
  back up there and, and talk about like why the government's
• 58:33
  wrong about something. And, and, and they should be
• 58:36
  cutting these programs which happen to, you know, fund the,
• 58:39
  the, the company that they're sure.
• 58:41
  So, so, yeah, it's important to understand that hedge funds are
• 58:46
  not, you know, when when those guys are are talking on Twitter
• 58:50
  or where, wherever, like everybody's talking about.
• 58:53
  And, and by the way, like that applies to me, it applies to all
• 58:56
  of us, right? Because we're, if you're long a
• 58:59
  station mobile, you're going to be biased to the positive.
• 59:02
  And obviously like it's important to be, to understand
• 59:06
  the risks and to be able to identify those risks and that
• 59:09
  there's a, there's a problem or changing the thesis, then you've
• 59:12
  got to be smart and do so. But but yeah, I think, you know,
• 59:17
  for, for people who are managing hedge fund money, it's, it's
• 59:23
  different, it's a different game.
• 59:24
  And the risk launches are going to be different.
• 59:26
  So often times when they look at retail and they're like, Oh my
• 59:30
  gosh, you've got to 10% of your portfolio or 20% of your
• 59:33
  portfolio in AC Space Mobile like you're asking for and
• 59:37
  you're, you know, that's, that's too risky.
• 59:39
  Well, yeah, in the context of, of managing A portfolio, A
• 59:43
  diverse book, a hedge fund, it is like no hedge funds going to
• 59:46
  have a 20% position in AC Space Mobile.
• 59:49
  Although maybe Ryan O'Connor is in the crowd.
• 59:51
  Maybe he does. But, you know, I think like
• 59:56
  that, that's where and, and that's where people like from
• 1:00:00
  the hedge fund world, they, they always think like, oh, retail's
• 1:00:02
  dumb. Like I'm the smartest guy in the
• 1:00:04
  room. They don't know what they're
• 1:00:05
  doing. I, I'll be, you know, I have
• 1:00:07
  more information than them. I know better than them.
• 1:00:11
  Yeah. And they're going to get
• 1:00:12
  whatever investment that they're in, they're going to get
• 1:00:14
  demolished, right. And so it's, I think it's
• 1:00:17
  important to understand that because that's, that's who
• 1:00:21
  you're playing poker with every day-to-day to day right in the
• 1:00:24
  markets. And so.
• 1:00:27
  You know that those those are the players who and I, and I
• 1:00:30
  truly believe this, like the ones who are actually going on
• 1:00:33
  to Twitter and pushing a thesis like that they're short
• 1:00:38
  something or or wherever. Like often times, like again,
• 1:00:41
  going back to pivotal Capital or some of these other guys, like
• 1:00:44
  the ones who are most local are typically ones who aren't really
• 1:00:47
  running that much risk or they're in trouble.
• 1:00:50
  Like they, they're in position and they're in trouble and
• 1:00:52
  they're like, now I'm going to become vocal about it on Twitter
• 1:00:55
  to try to sway opinion or, or sentiment, which, you know, we
• 1:01:00
  saw Pivotal capital doing like as AST ripped in his face or oh,
• 1:01:04
  not a capital, wherever that guy is, you know, these guys will
• 1:01:07
  come out of the woodwork and, and start posting negative
• 1:01:10
  things. It's usually because their
• 1:01:12
  position the other way. It's not yo-yo, you'll see
• 1:01:15
  trolls who are, who will fund positions and they'll tell you
• 1:01:19
  like, Oh, I have no interest in this whatsoever.
• 1:01:21
  And it's like, oh, then you find out that they're working at the
• 1:01:23
  competitor, the, the company's competitor or that, or they're
• 1:01:28
  short, but it's pretty, pretty simple as that.
• 1:01:32
  But I, I do think, you know, for, for retail, it is, it is
• 1:01:38
  important to recognize like your own risk tolerances and, and
• 1:01:40
  your financial situation. And, and you know, if you're
• 1:01:44
  like kook, where the guy's like on a mission with God and he
• 1:01:48
  doesn't want to sell any ACS Facebook world, then and he's OK
• 1:01:51
  with that and he's financially fine writing that, then that's
• 1:01:55
  his situation. It's not your situation.
• 1:01:58
  If you've got obligations and you've made life changing money,
• 1:02:02
  but those obligations, you know, by freeing, by paying those
• 1:02:07
  obligations down and, and basically I'm burdening yourself
• 1:02:11
  to have a more, having a free lifestyle, you should do that.
• 1:02:15
  You should consider to what extent, you know, maybe it
• 1:02:19
  doesn't have to be all or nothing.
• 1:02:20
  And I think that's the other thing people there's like this
• 1:02:23
  mental thing where they're, they're like, oh, if I sell 10%,
• 1:02:26
  it basically feels like I'm selling everything.
• 1:02:27
  It's like, no, you're selling 10%.
• 1:02:28
  It's just part of it. And by the way, like I'll go
• 1:02:31
  back to the time when I had warrants.
• 1:02:33
  I had like almost 1,000,000 warrants and, and yeah, I had to
• 1:02:37
  sell some to exercise the rest of them.
• 1:02:39
  And the number of shares that I had back then at the time, once
• 1:02:43
  I exercise the warrants, I had more shares back then than I do
• 1:02:46
  today. And that's just the nature of
• 1:02:49
  it, right? Like over time, I did sell some
• 1:02:51
  here and there, but, but the value of my position today is
• 1:02:56
  like 33X what it was back then. And that's because like, given
• 1:03:01
  stock prices performed and it's great.
• 1:03:03
  And so you can sell, you can sell some and still be in the
• 1:03:06
  game. And, and it, it's funny because
• 1:03:08
  I there is this fear. It's the other, I guess the
• 1:03:11
  other side of FOMO where people don't want to sell a single
• 1:03:14
  share because they they feel like they're going to sell an an
• 1:03:17
  extreme. This is an extreme example.
• 1:03:21
  Some of you guys know grandma party, who is this account that
• 1:03:26
  when things go bad and when things were bad, it was just
• 1:03:29
  constant FUD and negativity and just like calling for the heads
• 1:03:34
  of management. And I knew this person during
• 1:03:38
  the 20/21/2020, you know, SPAC boom and, and when times were
• 1:03:42
  good, like the guy was riding high.
• 1:03:44
  But then when times were bad, he was like just absolute venom
• 1:03:50
  just to everybody, like I wish I'd never met anybody.
• 1:03:54
  I, you know, this is bad management.
• 1:03:56
  You know, it's, it's a complete scam.
• 1:03:57
  I'm just negative stuff and, and just was tweeting and stuff too.
• 1:04:01
  And I would go to him and say, Hey, you know what, like as a
• 1:04:05
  friend and why don't you just sell?
• 1:04:09
  Why don't you just sell a position like it?
• 1:04:11
  This thing is like is such a cancer for you.
• 1:04:14
  This is like when the stop was in the single digits, like maybe
• 1:04:16
  567. It's like, why don't you just
• 1:04:19
  sell? It's like a mental, it's
• 1:04:21
  weighing on you. So and, and just not good for
• 1:04:24
  you. Like just sell.
• 1:04:25
  And he was, he would say no, But but the problem is, is that if
• 1:04:29
  this does extremely well, I'll never be able to live with
• 1:04:31
  myself. Which to be fair, it was smart
• 1:04:36
  not for him to sell because then the stock did really well.
• 1:04:39
  But yeah, but then I was like, well, OK, I get that.
• 1:04:44
  But then what's with all the negativity?
• 1:04:45
  Because like, if you, if you believe that there was this
• 1:04:48
  small probability that you are going to be right, then what's
• 1:04:52
  the point? Like just just mentally write it
• 1:04:55
  off and put it aside. And, and but there's only to
• 1:04:57
  like negatively, you know, affect other people, like bring
• 1:05:03
  them down. Which by the way, like this guy
• 1:05:04
  was so negative. I I'm pretty certain, like he
• 1:05:07
  probably had a hand in forcing some people to sell, which is a
• 1:05:11
  really sad thing. But but yeah, it's like, why?
• 1:05:15
  And and then you're being so publicly negative to management.
• 1:05:18
  It's like, and this is a time when, you know, the company was
• 1:05:21
  was scrapping by and doing its best because it was on the cusp
• 1:05:25
  of signing, eventually signing Verizon.
• 1:05:30
  This is like, I guess January of 2024 when they had to raise do
• 1:05:34
  that brutal equity offering, right?
• 1:05:36
  They had to do that to bridge themselves to finally get
• 1:05:38
  horizon on board, which was a very complex, you know,
• 1:05:41
  partnership to to work out. But it's like, why?
• 1:05:45
  OK, so you're, you own this company.
• 1:05:48
  You think there's a small chance of success, but yet you're going
• 1:05:51
  to like give it to management. And by the way, you're like
• 1:05:54
  calling for the head of a bell Avalon, who founded this
• 1:05:57
  company. He's like a key man, right?
• 1:05:58
  Like with you want him to get fired, which like, if he's not
• 1:06:02
  at the company, then the company doesn't exist.
• 1:06:04
  Like there's no logic in in in you don't make any logic.
• 1:06:10
  It'll sense in in your behavior. And but there's people who do
• 1:06:13
  that. And so that's why I think, you
• 1:06:16
  know, the, the, yeah, it's just money investing.
• 1:06:21
  Some people are built for it, some people are not.
• 1:06:23
  And I think recognizing where you sit and for your tendencies
• 1:06:27
  and your strengths and weaknesses is really important.
• 1:06:29
  Like that's the first step, right?
• 1:06:31
  And so if you are a gambler and you have a hard time holding on
• 1:06:34
  to money and you just like the thrill, the action, maybe on the
• 1:06:41
  one hand, though, there's some positive aspects of that, which
• 1:06:45
  I have some of that as well, which can lead to investment
• 1:06:48
  success. But on the other end, it can
• 1:06:50
  lead to your downfall or detriment, right?
• 1:06:52
  Because like Cook and I talk about this in time as well,
• 1:06:55
  where there's often times you don't, you know, overtraining
• 1:07:00
  is, is where you end up making less money or losing money, like
• 1:07:04
  just buying and building things that you have conviction in.
• 1:07:06
  Like the hardest thing is not to touch it or not to do anything
• 1:07:08
  about it. And, and I think a lot of people
• 1:07:11
  have a hard time coming to to grips with that.
• 1:07:13
  And so, you know, it's important to understand that those
• 1:07:17
  aspects. The other thing is like, you
• 1:07:19
  know, if you're looking to spend a decent amount of time
• 1:07:22
  investing, you have to understand like, you know, how
• 1:07:25
  much time do you actually have? Because there's people, and I
• 1:07:27
  know there's a lot of space mobile investors who are like, I
• 1:07:30
  didn't get any work done today. And they, they keep saying that
• 1:07:32
  for like days and days and days. And it's like, OK, maybe maybe
• 1:07:35
  you're spending too much time on this.
• 1:07:37
  But, and I know it's hard, but the reason why I mentioned that
• 1:07:40
  is, you know, often times people will push this narrative like,
• 1:07:44
  Hey, if you're, if you invest in the market, you'd have a diverse
• 1:07:47
  portfolio. No, you don't.
• 1:07:49
  You don't need to have a difference.
• 1:07:51
  But actually I'd argue against that because diverse meaning
• 1:07:54
  like 1520 names as a retail investor, you're not going to
• 1:07:59
  have any edge in in that. And it's tough to manage that
• 1:08:03
  many games to know if you have a full time job, to know any like
• 1:08:08
  some service level information about those companies and keep
• 1:08:11
  up with them. It's really tough, like you're
• 1:08:13
  if you don't have that much time, I would argue like them
• 1:08:17
  just invest in the S&P, the index, right?
• 1:08:20
  Like that's probably the easiest way to go.
• 1:08:23
  But if you do have time and you think you're good at, you know,
• 1:08:27
  research and then importantly, you know, there's a decent
• 1:08:32
  community out there or people that you can work, you know,
• 1:08:35
  whether it's like, you know, circle friends or day birds or
• 1:08:39
  whatever it is, or maybe it's social media where you have the
• 1:08:42
  ability to discern like what's real, what's not on social
• 1:08:45
  media, then yeah, then you might run your own portfolio.
• 1:08:49
  You might have a few names or, you know, whatever it is.
• 1:08:51
  Like you could have your portfolio could be 50% S&P.
• 1:08:55
  And then you've got you're, you're like, OK, I'm going to
• 1:08:57
  tell myself I'm going to allocate 10% to 5 names that I
• 1:09:01
  know really well. Or I'm going to, I'm going to
• 1:09:03
  push myself to know really well. Like that's, I think that's like
• 1:09:06
  an OK way to run a portfolio, you know, and obviously it
• 1:09:10
  depends on like where you are in life.
• 1:09:11
  If you're young, you could take more risk.
• 1:09:14
  If you're older than you should probably be down and down the
• 1:09:16
  risk and looking at more income type of, you know, investment
• 1:09:20
  opportunities. But I think the whole notion of
• 1:09:22
  like having to run a, a diverse portfolio, like that's, that's,
• 1:09:27
  that's the quickest way to underperforming the market,
• 1:09:31
  especially if you don't have time, if you have a full time
• 1:09:33
  job, then you know, when are you going to have time to research
• 1:09:36
  like, and by the way, like you're not going to watch that
• 1:09:40
  money and get ideas from Jim Cramer.
• 1:09:42
  Like that's, that's the quickest way to ruin.
• 1:09:44
  Because I mean, to his credit, I think he does a lot of great
• 1:09:47
  investor education. But this whole like, you know,
• 1:09:50
  speed, speed analysis of like saying whether to buy or sell.
• 1:09:54
  And also just like that, that stuff just, it just doesn't work
• 1:09:57
  right. But anyway, I've been rambling
• 1:10:00
  on for quite some time. I, I hope this, this is helpful.
• 1:10:06
  I'm going to take a quick look at any questions or comments.
• 1:10:10
  Let me see. OK, there's some funny stuff
• 1:10:15
  here. Oh boy, someone has a question
• 1:10:22
  of warrants. OK, these, I guess in particular
• 1:10:26
  is fact. Warrants.
• 1:10:26
  If if warrants, let's see it warrants when the stock reaches
• 1:10:29
  1150, it needs to be above that for 20 of 30 days.
• 1:10:34
  What if the stock price hits 18? Can the warrants be exercise
• 1:10:36
  volume day? Oh, yeah.
• 1:10:38
  This is a very particular question for SPAC warrants.
• 1:10:42
  And this is typical, but then there's also some, some nuances
• 1:10:46
  because it depends on the warrants.
• 1:10:47
  They, they, they, sometimes they change the features.
• 1:10:49
  But for warrants that have $11.50 strike once they you know
• 1:10:56
  this is post IPO and the the shares in the link shares have
• 1:10:58
  been registered that warrant you can exercise for shares at 11:50
• 1:11:04
  and so obviously the stock is at 8.
• 1:11:06
  You wouldn't exercise it because you're going to get you're going
• 1:11:10
  to have to pay $11.50 take delivery at sock stocks like 8.
• 1:11:13
  It doesn't make sense. It's just like a call often,
• 1:11:17
  however, if warrants and SPAC's have a a cap of $18.00
• 1:11:24
  typically. And So what happens is if the
• 1:11:26
  warrant trades above $18 for 20 trading days within 30
• 1:11:32
  consecutive days, then the company has ability to call
• 1:11:35
  those warrants and force you to either, you know, to force you
• 1:11:38
  to exercise them, right. And so that's what the feature
• 1:11:42
  this person is, is asking about. So, so warrants are like long
• 1:11:46
  day to call options. However, the soft trades above
• 1:11:49
  18 for 20 or 30 days, the company can force you to
• 1:11:52
  essentially exercise them when you exercise them.
• 1:11:55
  That's for 11:50 and then, you know, you'd have to pay $11.50,
• 1:11:59
  take delivery of the stock and then you know, obviously you get
• 1:12:03
  the upside between 11:50 and wherever the stock is trading
• 1:12:06
  once they call them. And so it's not as if like if
• 1:12:08
  the stock trades at 18, that's all you get.
• 1:12:11
  If the stock once they called and the stock keeps going to
• 1:12:14
  like 30, then the profit you made is it between 11:50 and 30.
• 1:12:20
  The other thing that I, you know, I've talked about this for
• 1:12:23
  warrants is that a new feature for spats is that if the company
• 1:12:27
  is acquired for a majority cash, then warrants actually get taken
• 1:12:32
  out for Black Scholes value. And so that can be very valuable
• 1:12:35
  in that even if the company gets taken out for well below the
• 1:12:38
  strike price of the warrants, like today, you know, $2.00 or
• 1:12:42
  $3, but it's for all cash, then what you will get is the, the
• 1:12:50
  company will value those warrants on a Black Scholes
• 1:12:52
  basis. And, and so you, you actually
• 1:12:54
  get paid for those warrants. And so I mean, just making this
• 1:12:57
  up, like if the company were being bought out for $7.00 and
• 1:13:00
  the Black Scholes value of that warrant at that point in time is
• 1:13:03
  $3 and the company will pay you in cash $3.00.
• 1:13:06
  So that's kind of a cool feature about SPAC warrants that not
• 1:13:10
  many people know about. But you know, I've, I've written
• 1:13:13
  about Satics 5 this, this warrant that I was buying under
• 1:13:16
  a penny and the company got taken out for cash.
• 1:13:19
  And those warrants ended up, you know, the company got bought out
• 1:13:22
  for $3 in cash, but the warrants ended up being worth $0.87.
• 1:13:29
  And so that was like a huge return.
• 1:13:32
  But yeah, that's, that's an interesting feature of warrants
• 1:13:35
  that in M&A they can have this like pretty significant upside.
• 1:13:40
  Let's see here, I had a $4.00 cost basis and Rocket Lab slowly
• 1:13:45
  trying to build a good size position, size position.
• 1:13:47
  It started to run up and I had a bright idea to sell coverage
• 1:13:50
  calls around 12. She never looked back.
• 1:13:53
  It's like high school girlfriend who cheated on.
• 1:13:55
  She left here and went on to rich and famous.
• 1:13:58
  Yeah, that's, that's a, that's an apartment example.
• 1:14:02
  Yeah, selling covered calls like it's a it's an income strategy.
• 1:14:06
  A lot of people pitch it as like a fun and Safeway to collect
• 1:14:10
  extra income while stock is like, I mean, in there, they
• 1:14:15
  hope that the stock trade sideways in in high, you know,
• 1:14:19
  and then of course, people get tempted by in high volatility.
• 1:14:23
  Names are like, Oh my gosh, I can collect this fat premium.
• 1:14:26
  Well, those stocks are they have high inflight volatility for
• 1:14:29
  reason because they can move. And so when you're selling
• 1:14:33
  covered calls, always be mentally ready that you'll get
• 1:14:37
  assigned and your, your stock gets called away.
• 1:14:40
  You know, it's, it's one of these strategies that works
• 1:14:42
  until it doesn't. And so just just like being long
• 1:14:46
  those calls, right? Like being long calls in
• 1:14:49
  general, you're going to lose money until that one time it
• 1:14:51
  hits or, and the thing I like to tell people about trading
• 1:14:56
  options, if you're going to be long options and, and short
• 1:14:59
  options, as well as like, you better have a very good sense of
• 1:15:02
  timing and price, right? Because if and, and those things
• 1:15:08
  are difficult, right? Because you can you can have a
• 1:15:10
  very good sense of a company like some callous are going to
• 1:15:13
  happen and you think the stock price is going to go higher.
• 1:15:15
  But then, you know, just like Trump has shown it's this past
• 1:15:19
  week, you know, if he has some some tweet about China and the
• 1:15:23
  entire mark comes down. Every stock has beta, you know,
• 1:15:27
  a movement with the market. And so you might be right on
• 1:15:28
  something. But then because of back row
• 1:15:31
  factors, you end up losing. So options are always risky.
• 1:15:35
  But yeah, covered calls, they work until they don't.
• 1:15:39
  And when they don't, usually it's going to be a time where
• 1:15:41
  you're going to be really upset about the outcome.
• 1:15:43
  So yeah, I mean, I, I think maybe you can, you can win
• 1:15:48
  several selling covered calls. Like do it on a, if you really
• 1:15:51
  feel a need to do it, do it on a part of your position, But I
• 1:15:54
  highly recommend don't do it on your entire position.
• 1:15:57
  It's just the quickest way to regret.
• 1:16:02
  Let's see some other questions here or comments to your.
• 1:16:17
  Let's see your. Yeah, you know, I think the form
• 1:16:22
  trader had a good post earlier today where he he kind of
• 1:16:24
  outlined, yeah, it's, I think it's hard mentally for people to
• 1:16:27
  get around the fact that, Oh my God, the stocks had $100.
• 1:16:31
  The market caps at like $32 billion.
• 1:16:35
  And it's easy to kind of throw into the mean bucket.
• 1:16:37
  I think somebody Lynn or some account was like, here's a top
• 1:16:42
  top list of multi billion dollar companies with no revenue.
• 1:16:45
  Well, yeah, sure. Like I, I this company has no
• 1:16:48
  revenue. Well, it will this coming
• 1:16:50
  quarter. But people whatever they make
• 1:16:54
  these like sensationalist charts or may try to convince you that
• 1:16:58
  something's overvalued. It's like, well, but what's
• 1:17:01
  what's what opportunity like what are people discounting the
• 1:17:04
  future? Like when Starlink was launched
• 1:17:07
  or SpaceX was raising money, it's people weren't valuing
• 1:17:11
  SpaceX based off of what they were doing at that point in
• 1:17:13
  time. They were valuing them on the
• 1:17:15
  potential in the future. And so I'm sure and you know,
• 1:17:19
  whether it's Tesla, any other names like where you had like
• 1:17:25
  SpaceX when it was valued at? And this is like a temp for our
• 1:17:28
  special right? Like over the years, as SpaceX
• 1:17:31
  continue to raise money at higher valuations, temp for our
• 1:17:33
  was like, this shit will never happen.
• 1:17:36
  It's never going to work. It's a way of revalued and it
• 1:17:39
  just kept marching along. Like, you know, it went from
• 1:17:42
  10/20/30 billion, 40 billion and 100.
• 1:17:45
  I remember he he like posted like this is wherever valued.
• 1:17:48
  He'll never earn an economic return to justify its
• 1:17:52
  liberation. And lo and behold, like it's at
• 1:17:54
  what 450 billion or 500 billion? And and he had this Mia culpa.
• 1:17:59
  I guess it was like 2-3 years ago where he's like, I was wrong
• 1:18:02
  about Starlink. It was right.
• 1:18:04
  I mean, he was like fighting Starling the entire way.
• 1:18:07
  And then he finally, like in a very backhanded way, he admitted
• 1:18:11
  that he was wrong. And that's, and then he said
• 1:18:13
  like Starling's going to dominate, you know,
• 1:18:16
  communications and it's going to put everybody out of business.
• 1:18:19
  And it was like literally like an overnight post, which was
• 1:18:22
  quite funny. But I think, you know, that's
• 1:18:25
  that's the other thing where people get worked up.
• 1:18:30
  I mean, it's it's funny. It's like the tales all the
• 1:18:32
  time, right, Where in the US, especially where you have
• 1:18:36
  capitalism and free markets, you're always going to have
• 1:18:40
  these day savers who, you know, obviously they missed, they
• 1:18:42
  missed an investment and they want to validate their feelings
• 1:18:45
  and justify why they missed it and why they won't touch it.
• 1:18:48
  Now. It's like, well, you know, AST
• 1:18:51
  space mobile is interesting, but Sterling Co question.
• 1:18:54
  And then, then, then it's like argument over game set match.
• 1:18:56
  And then but then they forget like where did Starling come
• 1:19:00
  from or where did SpaceX come from?
• 1:19:01
  And, and you know, years ago the same people were saying like,
• 1:19:06
  oh, you know, SpaceX, they'll never be able to compete against
• 1:19:09
  ULA and and the prime contractors like Arian, all
• 1:19:13
  these companies, you know, Ross, you know, the Russians like
• 1:19:17
  they're just never going to be able to compete and launch.
• 1:19:20
  And then lo and behold, like this scrappy startup, they did
• 1:19:23
  it and then they became the dominant provider.
• 1:19:25
  And then Starlink, the same thing like the scrappy startup
• 1:19:29
  and it became dominant provider. And so it's just kind of funny
• 1:19:32
  where when people use the Starlink or SpaceX argument,
• 1:19:36
  it's like, well, hey, Sherlock, shit for brains.
• 1:19:39
  Like where do you think those companies came from?
• 1:19:41
  Like where there there were there were massive incumbents
• 1:19:44
  and they they came in with game changing technology and of
• 1:19:47
  course execution and they disrupted industries.
• 1:19:49
  And so you're going to tell me that that's not possible?
• 1:19:53
  Like it, it, it ends with them. Like, no, like this is, this is
• 1:19:58
  like the capital, the American capitalist system where
• 1:20:01
  companies go through, I mean, for the, the good companies that
• 1:20:05
  continue to innovate and disrupt themselves, like they continue
• 1:20:09
  to stay relevant. But you know, it, it, it's, it's
• 1:20:12
  just kind of funny. It's a lazy argument, right when
• 1:20:15
  when people talk like that. But anyway, I've been rambling
• 1:20:18
  Now I what was going to be an hour I guess it's an hour 20.
• 1:20:22
  So maybe I'll cut it short there.
• 1:20:23
  But I think, yeah, today and over the last few weeks, yeah,
• 1:20:28
  people in the day like, don't take it too seriously.
• 1:20:32
  People show their true colors. And, and it's hard.
• 1:20:35
  It's hard being being investing is hard.
• 1:20:37
  And, you know, missing on opportunities and selling too
• 1:20:42
  early and, you know, boxing yourself in by selling calls or
• 1:20:46
  whatever it is, right? Like there's a whole host of
• 1:20:48
  reasons why people do what they do and how they change over time
• 1:20:52
  and just recognize that for what it is and it's OK.
• 1:20:54
  Like I myself, sometimes when I see this stuff, I, I get upset.
• 1:21:00
  But like today when, when it happened to me, you know,
• 1:21:03
  someone retweeted my post and then was telling basically say
• 1:21:07
  like, this thing's overvalued and I sold out.
• 1:21:08
  I was like, OK, you do you, man. Like that's, that's what you
• 1:21:12
  want to believe. That's how you can wake up
• 1:21:15
  tomorrow and feel good about yourself and that's fine.
• 1:21:17
  Like it's no, no sweat off my back.
• 1:21:20
  But I, I guess the thing that's a bit odd is like when, when
• 1:21:23
  people then go from that point to then, hey, I'm going to go on
• 1:21:28
  to a Twitter face and broadcast like why I did what I did.
• 1:21:31
  And then why, you know, I want to pat myself, come back and I
• 1:21:35
  think everybody else should pat me on the back.
• 1:21:37
  It's like, come on, man. Just have some awareness.
• 1:21:40
  Like it's just, it's so transparent.
• 1:21:44
  Just you look like a fool. But anyway, I'll end it there
• 1:21:48
  and I hope everyone has a good evening.
• 1:21:51
  I, I, I still believe that we will breach 100 this week.
• 1:21:55
  And as, as some of you know, the Antonov with the Bluebird sixes
• 1:22:00
  is now in India. So, so yeah, we're, we're on the
• 1:22:03
  cusp of it. It's, it's going to happen.
• 1:22:05
  But yeah, everyone have a good night and we'll meet again in
• 1:22:09
  coming days. Take care.
• 1:22:13
  Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile Podcast.
• 1:22:16
  If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
• 1:22:19
  podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
• 1:22:23
  media, or leave a rating and review.
• 1:22:25
  To catch all the. Latest news about AST Space
• 1:22:28
  Mobile, make sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
• 1:22:32
  next time. We're doing something very, very
• 1:22:37
  big and acting with this technology, we can really affect
• 1:22:40
  billion lives. AFT Space Global is the only
• 1:22:43
  company that had proven technology to deliver cellular
• 1:22:47
  broadband connectivity directly from space to do everyday
• 1:22:51
  smartphone. People will just basically turn
• 1:22:54
  their phone and be seamless, regardless of where you are.
• 1:22:57
  We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
• 1:23:00
  satellite. Our role is to.
• 1:23:03
  Bring this into. Reality, always in partnership
• 1:23:05
  with the MMO.