Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The Fed Setup for Bitcoin’s Next Run | Beyond Bitcoin

Transcript

The Fed Setup for Bitcoin’s Next Run | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:04
  Hello. Hello.
• 0:05
  Why isn't that? We're making new all time highs,
• 0:07
  huh. I thought you said it was going
• 0:08
  with the moon or whatever you said it's just sitting there.
• 0:10
  It's $69,000 and the gold you told me to sell.
• 0:13
  Yeah, that's just crossed 5000. What the?
• 0:16
  I've been hearing this question a lot this week and
• 0:18
  unfortunately I have the answer. It's just one word. the Fed.
• 0:21
  They haven't moved. Well, technically that's 5
• 0:24
  words, but you still get the point.
• 0:26
  January 29th, Jerome Powell says 2 camera.
• 0:29
  We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.
• 0:33
  I guess that means they're frozen and when the Fed freezes,
• 0:37
  Bitcoin freezes because Bitcoin doesn't really trade on retail
• 0:40
  vibes. Well, maybe it trades on vibe
• 0:42
  coded vibes using Openclaw, but that's another discussion.
• 0:46
  Well, that and liquidity. And liquidity right now is
• 0:48
  pretty much dried up. With gold, on the other hand,
• 0:50
  gold just hit $5000. And that gap between what gold
• 0:54
  is doing and what Bitcoin is doing is the whole story today.
• 0:57
  Emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin.
• 0:59
  Let's go. Have you ever been so confused
• 1:07
  about something that you spend an entire week just scrolling,
• 1:10
  reading, watching, trying to figure it out?
• 1:12
  And then you finally land on the answer and it's so obvious and
• 1:16
  you feel like the answer was just laughing at you the whole
• 1:18
  time, like it was just sitting there waiting, like it was
• 1:21
  having a coffee, like it was comfortable.
• 1:23
  Anyway, that's how I felt researching this episode.
• 1:25
  Here's what I came up with first, Bitcoin and the Fed, the
• 1:29
  perfect 90s sitcom couple. When the Fed freezes, Bitcoin
• 1:32
  freezes. That may just be a theory I
• 1:35
  cooked up before recording this, but it's a theory that has
• 1:38
  popped up 83% of all 12 month periods since Bitcoin existed.
• 1:43
  So I mean, come on, there's a correlation there, right?
• 1:46
  Second, gold is at $5000 an ounce.
• 1:49
  What the hell is happening? I'll tell you, central banks
• 1:51
  have been buying gold every single month since 2020.
• 1:54
  Two 1000 tons a year, three years running.
• 1:58
  They must be in it for the tech, right?
• 2:00
  No, they're doing it because in 2022 the US sanction Russia's
• 2:04
  dollar reserves. Overnight, $300 billion seized,
• 2:08
  and every central bank on earth woke up after that hangover and
• 2:12
  asked what can't be frozen and what do we know how to deal with
• 2:15
  already? Ah, yes, gold.
• 2:17
  But if you look real careful and you also make Bitcoin content,
• 2:20
  you see that that's a Bitcoin argument wearing different
• 2:23
  pants. Third, the strategic Bitcoin
• 2:26
  Reserve, a saga that has lasted longer than Star Trek
• 2:29
  iterations. One year ago today, Trump signed
• 2:32
  the executive order and it's still been sitting on his desk
• 2:35
  collecting dust. the US government allegedly holds
• 2:37
  380,000 Bitcoin. They haven't sold a SAT, and
• 2:42
  that's probably because they spoke to the folks at The
• 2:45
  Bitcoin Way. By the end of this video, you'll
• 2:47
  understand that Bitcoin isn't frozen because something is
• 2:49
  wrong. Bitcoin is frozen because the
• 2:51
  thing that it moves with hasn't moved yet.
• 2:53
  And when it does, gold will look like an insignificant speck on
• 2:58
  the heel of Michael Saylor's running shoes.
• 3:04
  Let's start with the Fed, because this is the piece that
• 3:06
  most people skip past. They land on price, they land on
• 3:10
  ETF flows, they land on on chain data and miss the thing sitting
• 3:14
  right at the center of the argument.
• 3:15
  Bitcoin tracks global M2 money supply, total global liquidity
• 3:19
  83% of the time in any given 12 month window.
• 3:23
  Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan published this research.
• 3:26
  More than gold, more than stocks, more than any other
• 3:29
  major asset class, Bitcoin follows the money.
• 3:31
  Literally. So the single most important
• 3:34
  thing said about Bitcoin in January 2025 didn't come from a
• 3:37
  Bitcoin conference. It didn't come from Sailor, and
• 3:40
  it didn't come from X. It came from Jerome Powell
• 3:43
  reading from a prepared statement like I am right now
• 3:47
  into a camera. That recalibration of our policy
• 3:50
  stance was appropriate in light of the progress on inflation and
• 3:53
  the rebalancing in the labor market.
• 3:56
  With our policy stance significantly less restrictive
• 3:59
  than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need
• 4:03
  to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.
• 4:07
  At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain
• 4:10
  the target range for the federal funds rate at 4:00 and 3:45 and
• 4:13
  a half percent. We know that reducing policy
• 4:18
  restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on
• 4:21
  inflation. At the same time, reducing
• 4:25
  policy restraint too slowly or too little could unduly weaken
• 4:29
  economic activity and employment.
• 4:30
  We do not need to be in a hurry. He said the Fed funds rate has
• 4:33
  been at 4:00 and 3:45 and a half percent since December 2024.
• 4:38
  Three straight meetings, no move.
• 4:40
  That means the global liquidity environment is tight, Not
• 4:43
  collapsing, it's just tight. the Fed isn't adding fuel to the
• 4:47
  money supply. It's parked.
• 4:48
  And when the money supply is parked, Bitcoin parks with it.
• 4:51
  So I think liquidity is a really big variable and I think that
• 4:54
  that Bitcoin is more correlated with liquidity than most other
• 4:57
  assets. And and how much of A part do
• 5:01
  you think that's playing in this drawdown now?
• 5:02
  Because I would say 2025 is probably in the time I've been
• 5:06
  in Bitcoin, the year that almost no one's been right on on
• 5:10
  Bitcoin. Like I don't think it's gone up
• 5:12
  nearly as much as people thought.
• 5:13
  There was a lot of calls for this being like the cycles being
• 5:16
  over, potentially they still are.
• 5:18
  But how do you, like, take this in?
• 5:21
  Like why do you think Bitcoin's crashing now?
• 5:23
  So I think it's actually the more inching factor is why it's
• 5:26
  been flat for so long because the crash itself, like even in
• 5:30
  the 2017 bull run that was a fairly smooth and and kind of
• 5:34
  parabolic bull run, but still had multiple sharp 30%
• 5:38
  corrections along the way, like several.
• 5:40
  Yeah, you notice, Alden says. More correlated with liquidity
• 5:43
  than most other assets. When global liquidity expands,
• 5:46
  Bitcoin absorbs a portion of it. When it contracts or parks,
• 5:50
  Bitcoin follows. Right now it's parked.
• 5:53
  But here's what's not parked to the conditions that will force
• 5:56
  the Fed to eventually move $36 trillion in national debt, $1.9
• 6:00
  trillion deficit in 2026. Interest payments alone, that's
• 6:04
  $1 trillion a year, tripled since 2021.
• 6:08
  The Cape ratio on US equities 39.8 highest sincethe.com crash
• 6:12
  the Fed can hold here for now. But the math only works so long
• 6:16
  before the pressure to ease becomes unavoidable.
• 6:19
  The deficit is structural, the debt service is structural.
• 6:22
  And every time the liquidity environment shifts in 2019 or
• 6:25
  2020 or 2023, Bitcoin shifted with it, usually with a lag,
• 6:30
  usually bigger than expected. The story isn't Bitcoin is
• 6:33
  broken. The story is the Fed is holding
• 6:35
  its breath. Bitcoin is holding it with them.
• 6:37
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• 6:40
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• 7:01
  As I mentioned, gold crossed $5000 an ounce in 2026, first
• 7:04
  time in history, up 65% in 2025. That's the best year for gold
• 7:09
  since 1979. JP Morgan is targeting 6300 by
• 7:12
  the end of the year. Now I want to go on record right
• 7:14
  now because this is a recording, so I am going on record.
• 7:17
  This is not a gold story. Central banks bought more than
• 7:20
  1000 tons of gold per year for three straight years.
• 7:23
  Goldman Sachs estimates 60 tons a month right now, up from 17 a
• 7:27
  month before in 2020. Two, 95% of central banks came
• 7:31
  up with a plan to increase gold holdings this year.
• 7:34
  China has been doing 14 consecutive months of buying.
• 7:37
  Why? Ask yourself what changed in
• 7:40
  2022? the US froze Russia's dollar
• 7:42
  reserves, $300 billion seized overnight, you remember.
• 7:46
  And every central bank on earth woke up after that hangover and
• 7:49
  asked what can't be frozen and what do we know how to deal with
• 7:52
  already? Yes, gold.
• 7:54
  But that's Bitcoin's argument word for word.
• 7:56
  It's a hard asset fix supply. Unlike gold, no counterparty, no
• 8:00
  subject to sovereign decree. Gold is running because central
• 8:03
  banks figured out the exit. They just stopped one stop
• 8:06
  short. For analysts that are predicting
• 8:08
  such wildly higher gold prices as we almost shift the monetary
• 8:13
  anchor from Treasuries as the primary reserve back to gold.
• 8:17
  Yeah. It's not that I disagree with
• 8:18
  him. I think it's just a matter of
• 8:19
  probabilities or or timelines. I mean, I would not have guessed
• 8:23
  that we'd be at 5000 gold roughly speaking right now.
• 8:26
  I mean, as of as of somebody who's long it, I'm happy we are.
• 8:29
  But I would not have, you know, if you asked me a year ago, do
• 8:31
  you think gold would be 5000? I'd be like, well, no, So it, it
• 8:34
  can always surprise you. The upside.
• 8:36
  I think one of the thing that's worth keeping in mind is that
• 8:38
  $10,000 gold is only a double from here, meaning that even if
• 8:43
  that view is right and it very well could be it's a double,
• 8:46
  right. So you're you're taking on
• 8:48
  downside risk if it if it drops back down to 4003 thousand an
• 8:52
  ounce. Shift the monitor anchor from
• 8:53
  treasuries back to gold. She's not wrong, she just thinks
• 8:56
  it's a timing question. So do I.
• 8:59
  But here's what I'll add. If the monetary anchor is
• 9:02
  moving, it doesn't stop at gold. Gold is the first stop for
• 9:05
  central banks because they've dealt with it for centuries.
• 9:08
  It's familiar. It's politically defensible.
• 9:11
  But Bitcoin is the second stop, and it's been waiting.
• 9:14
  When you price equities in gold instead of dollars over the last
• 9:16
  five years, they're flat to negative.
• 9:19
  Real wealth didn't move the dollar.
• 9:21
  Debased gold held the line. That's what gold does.
• 9:24
  It runs when the monetary system is under pressure.
• 9:26
  But it doesn't run harder than the money printed against it.
• 9:30
  Gold is the seat belt. Bitcoin is the parachute.
• 9:34
  Bitcoin is is certainly at least digital gold.
• 9:37
  It's going to eat gold. It's got all of the great
• 9:39
  attributes of gold and it's got none of the defects of gold.
• 9:43
  If you could teleport gold from New York to Tokyo in a in a few
• 9:47
  minutes, people would like it. It's going to divert capital
• 9:51
  from risk, risk assets and risk ETFs like SP Y.
• 9:56
  And you can see that these these ETFs are doing that.
• 10:00
  It's going to be incorporated into a lot of funds like the
• 10:03
  BlackRock Global Opportunities Fund or the Strategic Income
• 10:06
  Opportunities Fund. And so as it's an asset class,
• 10:10
  as it goes into other funds, it's going to become structural.
• 10:13
  All the attributes, none of the defects.
• 10:15
  Gold can't teleport. Bitcoin can.
• 10:18
  Gold custody takes armored trucks and vaults.
• 10:21
  Bitcoin custody is a hardware wallet the size of a thumb
• 10:23
  drive. Gold supply grows every year.
• 10:25
  Miners dig more Bitcoin supplies fixed at 21 million forever.
• 10:30
  Bitcoin is a $2 trillion market cap in a $29 trillion room.
• 10:34
  The capital that proved the thesis in gold will eventually
• 10:37
  look for the asymmetric version of the same trade.
• 10:40
  Bitcoin is that asymmetric version.
• 10:43
  The central banks already confirmed the thesis, they just
• 10:46
  haven't made the second stop yet, as I mentioned.
• 10:48
  Which brings me to the Bitcoin way.
• 10:50
  If this thesis is landing for you, that holding your own hard
• 10:53
  asset outside of the system that can freeze them overnight is the
• 10:58
  right move and the bitcoinway.com is the next step.
• 11:01
  Their team walks you through complete Bitcoin self custody.
• 11:04
  Not a YouTube tutorial, a real free 30 minute consultation.
• 11:08
  If you go to thebitcoinway.com/beyond
• 11:11
  Bitcoin, meaning you mentioned us, you know you're watching the
• 11:15
  show, you get a free 30 minute consultation.
• 11:18
  They'll teach you about hardware wallets, setting up your own
• 11:20
  node, full verification, and total sovereignty over your
• 11:23
  stack. It's completely free.
• 11:25
  So go to thebitcoinway.com/beyond
• 11:27
  Bitcoin. That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond
• 11:30
  Bitcoin for your free 30 minute consultation.
• 11:33
  Now let's talk about the strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• 11:35
  One year ago today, March 6th, 2025, President Trump signed the
• 11:39
  executive order. It's been sitting on his desk.
• 11:41
  David Sacks posted it. Trump called it virtual Fort
• 11:44
  Knox for digital gold and the Bitcoin community had its, you
• 11:48
  know, revelatory moment. But today, that reserve still
• 11:52
  doesn't legally exist. the US government allegedly holds
• 11:56
  328,372 Bitcoin seized in criminal proceedings from Silk
• 12:03
  Road and the bit the next hack, the executive order says hold
• 12:07
  it, secure it, call it a reserve.
• 12:10
  But the Treasury says they need Congress to codify it.
• 12:13
  Now Congress has introduced 3 bills, The Bitcoin Act which is
• 12:16
  to buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin over the next five years, the Bitcoin
• 12:19
  for America Act which seems like the same thing with a flag on
• 12:23
  it, and HR 2112 which is to codify the order.
• 12:27
  All three are sitting in committee.
• 12:28
  The sovereigns didn't really show up.
• 12:30
  You know, people were talking about the strategic Bitcoin
• 12:31
  reserve a lot last year. I was on record saying I'm not
• 12:35
  going to, you know, expect that really.
• 12:38
  And then the other side is retail didn't really show up.
• 12:40
  And instead the only real players this time were kind of
• 12:43
  in the middle, the corporate institutional side, kind of
• 12:46
  higher net worth retail that have a brokerage account and the
• 12:50
  ETFs opened up to them, made it, made it easier, but not really
• 12:55
  like a deluge of people buying Bitcoin, taking self custody of
• 12:58
  it. 328,000 bitcoins sitting in U.S. government wallets.
• 13:02
  At today's price, that's $22 billion.
• 13:06
  And they are actively choosing not to sell it.
• 13:09
  That's not a coincidence. That's a position, an allegedly
• 13:12
  excellent one. The paperwork isn't done, and
• 13:14
  the reserve isn't official. But the Bitcoin is there, and it
• 13:18
  isn't moving right. It is there, right?
• 13:20
  Every country watching this is running the same calculation
• 13:23
  central banks ran about gold in 2022.
• 13:27
  If the US holds it and won't sell it, what do they know that
• 13:30
  we should know? The reserve order is stalled.
• 13:34
  The Bitcoin is not. So the original question, why
• 13:37
  isn't Bitcoin at all time highs? the Fed is frozen.
• 13:40
  Global liquidity, the thing Bitcoin tracks 83% of the time,
• 13:44
  is parked. No expansion, no new fuel.
• 13:47
  So Bitcoin waits. Gold already ran.
• 13:50
  Central banks figured out the hard asset thesis.
• 13:53
  They moved while the Fed was frozen, bought the exit that
• 13:57
  doesn't need permission, and in doing so confirmed the thesis
• 14:01
  Bitcoin has been making for 15 years.
• 14:04
  The reserve is technically incomplete.
• 14:07
  The reserve is technically incomplete.
• 14:10
  The sovereign catalyst that was supposed to accelerate global
• 14:13
  momentum is still winding through some kind of committee.
• 14:18
  You know, fine, but 328,000 bitcoins sit in U.S. government
• 14:24
  wallets, allegedly. Take all three and the question
• 14:27
  changes entirely. It isn't.
• 14:29
  Why isn't Bitcoin at all time highs?
• 14:32
  It's what happens when any of these shift.
• 14:34
  If the Fed cuts, liquidity expands and Bitcoin follows the
• 14:38
  M2 the way it has in every prior cycle, with a lag and bigger
• 14:42
  than expected. If the reserve gets codified,
• 14:44
  that's a signal other nations run the calculation.
• 14:47
  Lynn Alden has already run out loud and the capital, sitting in
• 14:51
  gold at 5000, starts asking where the asymmetric version of
• 14:55
  this trade is, $2 trillion asset in a $29 trillion room.
• 14:59
  Remember fixed supply, no counterparty.
• 15:02
  These aren't predictions, they're just what the thesis
• 15:04
  says. And same thesis, central banks
• 15:07
  already confirmed with gold. The same thesis the US
• 15:10
  government confirmed by not selling 380,000 Bitcoin.
• 15:14
  Bitcoin is at 69,000. Not because something broke.
• 15:16
  Bitcoin is at 69,000 because the Fed hasn't moved yet.
• 15:19
  It's frozen and frozen means it's coiled.
• 15:22
  Now I want to stop right here and give a shout out to
• 15:25
  cluborange.org. That's formerly the orange Pill
• 15:27
  app. This is the premier app.
• 15:29
  If you want to connect with Bitcoiners in your local
• 15:31
  proximity, you can have conversations about Bitcoin and
• 15:36
  macroeconomics, or you could just go grab a coffee and talk
• 15:40
  Bitcoin with someone near you. You can meet a new friend.
• 15:43
  So go to cluborange.org right now, sign up on the app, and you
• 15:47
  can even reach out to me there. I'm at Oceans OSHINSI read all
• 15:52
  my DMS and I respond accordingly.
• 15:56
  I'll see you there. Here's what I keep coming back
• 15:57
  to. the Fed says we're not in a hurry, and they mean it.
• 16:01
  The economy is holding, inflation is sticky, but it's
• 16:03
  manageable at the moment and there's no cuts.
• 16:05
  Right, but not in a hurry. At the macro level.
• 16:08
  Looks like $36 trillion in debt and one trillion a year in
• 16:12
  interest. You can hold rates for a while,
• 16:14
  but you can't hold the math. And when the math wins, when the
• 16:17
  Fed has to move because the alternative is worse, the assets
• 16:21
  best position aren't the ones waiting for a bill to pass.
• 16:24
  They're the ones already mined, already in wallets, already
• 16:28
  running on fixed schedule that doesn't need anyone's permission
• 16:32
  or anyone's hurry. The Fed is frozen not forever
• 16:35
  though, just for now. So study Bitcoin.
• 16:38
  Thank you so much for watching this video.
• 16:40
  If you like what you see and you want to see more, make sure you
• 16:41
  hit that like button below or you can subscribe to the simply
• 16:44
  Bitcoin channel for more content like this.
• 16:46
  We're coming out with it every single day of the week.
• 16:48
  Also do not forget to hit that notification bell or leave us a
• 16:51
  comment, whatever you want to do.
• 16:53
  If you want to reach out to me directly, I'm run dance Bitcoin
• 16:56
  on X other than that, I'm oceans.
• 16:59
  This is beyond Bitcoin. Until next time.