Transcript

5.8.25 · Science Show KY

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Radioized Diary of Science and Nature. Your reader's
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Kelly Taylor. I have some articles on the topics of
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science and nature, but first a reminder that RADIOI is
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a reading service intended for people who are blind or
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have other disabilities that make it difficult to read printed material.
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From the BBC Science Focus magazine, we have What's the
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most painful insect sting? And the Schmidt Scale for stinging
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insects ranks the pain of insects stings on a scale
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of one to four. On this scale, the sting of
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the western honeybee scores a paltry two, while one of
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the red paper wasp and the Clug's velvet ant achieve
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a three. At four, however, is the sting of the
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South American bullet ant Entomologist Doctor Justin Schmidt, who won
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a twenty fifteen Ignoble Prize for devising the scale, described
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being stung by the feisty nipper as pure, intense, brilliant pain,
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like walking over flaming charcoal with a three inch nail
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embedded in your heel. And now from the same source,
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we'll get into a related article. Some scientists think insect
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populations are increasing here's why they are wrong. And this
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is from no date. Okay. Back in twenty twenty, when
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French scientists doctor Lawrence gome gaume E and Marion desk
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Kilbet first heard the news about a new international insect
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decline database, they felt something was off. It suggested that
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some insect species were actually on the rise, a claim
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the contradicted years of research. We were concerned. We felt
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the conclusions were over optimistic, says desk Quilobette, an environmental
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economists at Toulouse School of Economics. It went against prior results,
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clearly pointing to a decline in insect biodiversity. When I
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talked to them five years later, old concerns about mistakes
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in the insect database shined a light on new big
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picture qualms about how biodiversity is measured, but more than that,
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whether scientific discovery should be up for debate. The database
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they were initially concerned with was called insect Change and
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merged various other data sets created by researchers. In twenty twenty,
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scientists from Germany, Russia, and the US published an analysis
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of insect Change, examining its data and findings. The main
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takeaways were that while insects on land weren't doing well,
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declining at a rate of nine percent per decade. Fresh
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water insects were making a comeback, increasing at eleven percent
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per decade. It made the picture of worldwide insect decline
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look much more nuanced than previously thought. The findings left
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some scholars scratching their heads, as other research suggests that
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insect decline is continuing at a far greater pace. In fact,
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more than sixty scientists published letters saying they had concerns
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with the results. The database's team issued some corrections to
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the data and chalked others up to misunderstandings or differences
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in opinions. We kept feeling concerned about the impact of
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the publication, says deskq wuill Abet. After all, the decline
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paper is cited at eleven hundred and twelve times in
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scientiary journals, while their feedback is quoted just sixty times.
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Gaumet and Desquibet dug into the data set themselves and
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claimed to uncover over five hundred and thirty methodological and
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statistical mistae. Almost all data sets one hundred and sixty
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one out of one hundred sixty five had at least
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one issue. They said, for one, the database gathers data
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sets with all sorts of different units of measurement, but
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then applies a faulty mathematical transformation that doesn't yield the
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real percentage of insect change per year. According to Kome,
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an insect ecologists at Montpelier University, data sets about aquatic
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insects also include non insect invertebrates such as muscles, snails, worms,
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and crustaceans. For instance, data from a lake in Kazakhstan
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suggests that insects have increased over the past century, but
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include invasive muscle blooms, which make up ninety five percent
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of the invertebrates in the lake. Most of the data
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sets also came from re wilding projects with the end
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goal of increasing insect populations through methods such as building
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artificial pawns. These environments have been manipulated and so don't
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represent a natural insect habitat. The user is left unaware
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of the biases, says Gome. The insect Change team heard
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the concerns loud and clear quote. There are mistakes in
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our data, says database creator doctor Roll van Klink, an
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ecologist at the German Center for Integrated biodiversity research. Quote
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like their ar mistakes everywhere in quote. The team is
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working to incorporate corrections and update the database to make
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it as accurate as possible, as well as expanding it.
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They aim to publish a new and improved version of
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the database in the next six months. They also asked
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Gome and desk Quibett to work on the project, but
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the pair refused. Quote. The real question is does it
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matter for the outcome of the analysis? I say it doesn't,
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says Van Clink. The results wouldn't be different if all
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these tiny mistakes were weeded out. He also notes that
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not separating insects from invertebrates in the freshwater data collection
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was a choice he and his team made. Still, this
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insect change debacle tells a wider story. In the era
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of the biodiversity crisis, scientists are scrambling to measure what's
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happening to nature and determine trends of what might happen next.
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These huge databases are hard to cross reference and keep
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in check as more and more information is added. Every
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study has flaws, limitations, and biases. Quote. These complexities and
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limitations are rarely discussed because we've been convinced that simplified
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narratives are the desired norm for science communication, says doctor
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Manu Saunders, ecologists from the University of New England in Australia,
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who wasn't involved in either of the studies. That's why
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Saunder says scientists should continue to engage in debate. Just
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because the research was public doesn't mean its scientific pursuit
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is over. Science is a method, not a finished product.
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And now another insect related article, this time from CBS
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News dated April twenty eighth. Cicada brewed fourteen is emerging
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in twenty twenty five. Here's what to know about the
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periodical bugs. A massive brood of periodical cicadas will emerge
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soon across the United States with a notoriously raucous springtime.
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Insects due for their twenty twenty five appearance. Known for
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their buzzing hordes and ability to rapidly infiltrate the environments
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where they show up, cicadas are expected to swarm parts
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of Kentucky and Tennessee this year, while arriving in smaller
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quantities in various places along the East Coast, from Massachusetts
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and New York down to western Georgia. Here's what to
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know about the infamous creatures. Periodical cicadas are moderately sized
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bugs with red eyes and translucent windings, usually measuring about
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an inch long with a wider wingspan. They are sometimes
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mistakenly associated with locusts like grasshoppers, but cicadas are actually
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an entirely different sort of insect, part of the same
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family as stink bugs and bedbugs. The synchronized behavior of
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periodical cicadas is their most defining characteristic Compared with annual cicadas,
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which appear in generally modest amounts each summer. Periodical cicadas
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emerge in the spring and essentially rise from the ground
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in unison in either thirteen year or seventeen year intervals.
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Cicadas that emerge on the same schedule are called a brood,
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and each is labeled using Roman numerals. This year, the
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group belongs to Brood XIV, the second largest brood of
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periodical cicadas known to scientists, according to the University of Connecticut.
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Researchers with the university's Cicada Project note that while they
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cannot technically know with certainty where a particular brood is
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going throughmor next. Its last known locations during previous emergence
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events usually provide valuable insights. Because periodical cicadas typically lay
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their eggs in or near the areas where they've just emerged,
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the next generation of broods tends to emerge themselves in
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similar places. Based on University of Connecticut research, CBS News'
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data team created an interactive map that charts the expected
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spread of brood fourteen, which last arose seventeen years ago
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and is the only brood emerging in twenty twenty five.
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The map shows the cicadas primarily concentrated in Kentucky and Tennessee,
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in addition to parts of Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia,
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and West Virginia. Farther north, the brood is also expected
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to take shape in smaller pockets in Cape Cod, Massachusetts,
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Long Island, New York, and central Pennsylvania. The brood will
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emerge before the end of spring on June twenty first,
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but cicada's arrivals in different parts of the US will
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likely vary. Cicada expert Matthew Kyson told CBS News in
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twenty twenty four that the exact timing of a brood's
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emergence is linked to the temperature of the soil therein
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before moving above ground, Cason said cicadas are prompted to
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exit the soil when it reaches sixty four degrees, so
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groups within the larger brood may travel to the surface
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sooner than others in cooler locations. The life cycles of
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periodical cicadas are closely tied to how and where they emerge.
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Before a brood materializes on land, each of its members,
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sometimes trillions of them, exist underground as larvae, subsiding on
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fluids from plant roots. According to the National Wildlife Federation,
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they live in those conditions for thirteen or seventeen years,
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depending on the brood, Then, almost all at once, the
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insects burrow upward and break through the surface of the soil,
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often making their presence known by erupting in loud and
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at times constant choruses. Conspicuous noises from cicada swarms are
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a mating tactic, the Wildlife Federation writes, as the male
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insects gather in groups and create loud sounds to attract females.
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The mating process begins within a few days of cicadas
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emerging When it ends, the females cut shallow grooves into
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tree branches and lay their eggs inside. Researchers at Arizona
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State University say those eggs usually hatch within eight weeks,
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and newly born cicadas fall from the branches down to
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the ground called nymphs. At that point, the young bugs
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proceed to dig their way back underneath the soil, where
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they remain until it's time to emerge again. Adult cicadas
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typically remain above ground in a given location for four
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to six weeks before they first emerge. Note that most
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of the individual insects live for less time, but that
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window accounts for some degree of staggering when the brood emerges,
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since that happens over a period of about two weeks.
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Cicadas are not dangerous to humans or pets. They don't
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bite or staying, and they aren't poisonous or venomous. Quote.
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If dogs or cats eat many cicadas, this may temporarily
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cause an upset stomach or vomiting, but there is no
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need to worry if a pet eats a small number
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of cicadas. The Environmental Protection Agency says they are also
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largely beneficial to the ecosystem. They are a food source
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for birds and other predators that eat insects. They can
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aerate soil and when they decompose they provide nutrients. They
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can help trees grow. Cicadas may harm young trees, which
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can be protected with mesh or netting. They don't eat leaves, flowers,
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fruits or garden produce. The EPA says, And now we'll
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go back to BBC Science Folks Magazine, and the article
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is headlined what would happen if Yellowstone erupted? Barely a
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month goes by that these days without the Yellowstone supervolcano
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hitting the headlines somewhere or other, and this one is
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no exception. It might be a swarm of earth tremors
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or a minor steam driven explosion that sets the hearts
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of news editors and disaster preppers racing, or on occasions
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like this, a new piece of research that sheds light
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on prospects for the next Big Bang. Sometimes it can
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seem as if the entire world is waiting for Yellowstone
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to blow, in a sense, almost willing it. So what
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to do? So what do the latest findings tell us?
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And do they bring good news or bad? Let's dig
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a bit deeper. In January this year, researchers in the
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United States Geological Survey the USGS published a new analysis
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in the journal Nature that reveals exactly what's going on
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underneath Yellowstone. By measuring and mapping the electrical conductivity of
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the rocks, they were able to paint a three dimensional
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picture of how much magma there is and where it's located.
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This is because molten rock can be up to a
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thousand times more conductive than its solid equivalent, so it's
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pretty easy to pick out. Bad news is that there
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is one hell of a lot of magma down there.
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The good news is that it's not all in one place,
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nor is it filling some great subterranean void. Most of
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the magma, in fact, is contained in pockets, each making
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up two to thirty percent by volume of the hot
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solid rock within which they are contained. Furthermore, the areas
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of magma hosting rock are not all joined up, so
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even if the volcano did blow, it couldn't all come
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out in one go. The most interesting revelation, however, lies
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in what the study tells us about where the next
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volcanic action might be centered. It turns out that the
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magma is not evenly distributed. Most of it is concent
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traded under the northeast of the Yellowstone Caldera, a huge
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crater left by the last supereruption six hundred thirty thousand
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years ago. Somewhere between four hundred and five hundred cubic kilometers,
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or that ninety five to one hundred and twenty cubic
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miles of sticky silica rich rhyolite magma is squatting there.
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That's significantly more than the volume of magma that erupted
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in Yellowstones huge Mesa Falls blast around one point three
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million years ago. Furthermore, hot the salt magma rising from
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the mantle below is pumping more and more heat into
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this part of the volcano, keeping the rhyolite magma hot
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and over time ramping up the total volume of molten rock.
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This may sound disconcerting to say the least, but remember
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that the magma is spread around. All these pockets of
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molten rock would need to connect up and pool together
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before there is sufficient volume to come out in one
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hefty eruption. Nevertheless, the authors of the Nature paper have
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hypothesized that this part of the volcano will be the
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most likely place for the next big outburst. The big
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question is when there's a great deal to talk about
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the next Yellowstone supereruption being due. But this, as the
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latest research also bears out, simply isn't the case. Alongside
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the aforementioned to Mesa Falls eruption, there have been two other,
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much bigger blasts, the Huckleberry Ridge eruption a little over
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two million years ago and the six hundred thirty thousand
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year old Lava Creek outburst. The average return period of
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the three eruptions is seven hundred thirty five thousand years, So,
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notwithstanding the lack of any statistical rigor given such a
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small sample size, there's no reason to think that another
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supeeruption is in any way imminent. It's also worth observing
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that the Mesa Falls eruptions, how massive, wasn't deserving enough
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to be awarded the epithet super as the volume of
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its deposits fell below the one thousand qb kilometer threshold
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that's required. Consequently, the return period between the two really
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big ones is nearer one and a half million years.
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The reality, then, is that the next Yellowstone supereruption could
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be a very long time coming, but it will come
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and when it does, its impact on the United States
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and the entire planet will be immense. To get some
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idea of what a future Yellowstone supereruption might look like,
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we need to look back in time at those earlier explosions,
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which have many features in common. All involved a detonation
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so great that the erupted magma was torn apart, creating
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colossal quantities of ash. In addition, each eruption was followed
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by the collapse of the crust above the emptied magma reservoir,
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leading to the formation of a giant caldera. The current
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sixty kil wide Yellowstone caldera was formed during the most
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recent Lava Creek eruption. While each supereruption marked the climax
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of an eruption cycle that was terminated by collapse, this
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was both preceded and followed by volcanic activity on a
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smaller scale. This highlight's an important point that doesn't get
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much airing in discussions about the Yellowstone threat, and that
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is that there have been plenty of smaller eruptions between
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the three biggest, and many of these have not been explosive.
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In fact, the last eruption of Yellowstone involved the relatively
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quiet extrusion of lava around seventy thousand years ago. But
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let's zero in on the big ones, which, let's face it,
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for what everyone wants to know. What would we experience
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as Yellowstone girded itself for volcanic cataclysm and during the
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eruption itself. One thing we don't know too much about
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is how long the build up to a big one
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takes and what the warning signs would be. Even today,
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there are hot springs, bubbling mud pools, and swarms of
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earth trimmers. Meanwhile, the land's surface continually rises and falls,
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as if a giant slumbers below, which in a sense
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it does. It might seem logical to expect a supereruption
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to be preceded by more of the same warning signs
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we see in smaller eruptions, just on a larger scale,
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possibly with growing unrest over decades or longer. However, research
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on past eruptions at another supervolcano, Mount Toba, in Indonesia
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suggests otherwise. The findings indicate that warning signs could be minimal,
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offering little to suggest that a world changing eruption was
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on its way. This is very bad us for anyone
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living within sixty miles or so of the Yellowstone volcano,
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because once all hell breaks loose, there would be little
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chance to escape. This is to say that Yellowstone supereruption
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will explode onto the scene unannounced. Recent field work by
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geologists has revealed that the six hundred thirty thousand year
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old Lava Creek event was preceded by two smaller scale
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explosive eruptions, probably separated by years, may be even decades.
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When the volcano reawakens, we may well see the same
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thing again, smaller starter events heralding the main course. From
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a mitigation point of view. In such a case, the
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big problem lies in trying to predict which eruption, if any,
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will be super something that will not actually become apparent
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until after the event, when the amount of disgorged material
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can be quantified. However, whether Yellowstone vomits out five hundred,
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seven fifty or one thousand cubic kilometers of ash is
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pretty immaterial. All would be cataclysmic and devastating for the country.
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Whenever it comes, the next Yellowstone supereruption will be impossible
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to miss, and whether you live close by or on
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the other side of the planet, its consequences will be unavoidable.
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The eruption is likely to be focused initially at least
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at a single vent breaking through where the swelling crust
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above the magma reservoir is weakest. As viscous rhyolite magma
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packed with gas and under enormous pressure, breaks the surface,
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it tears itself apart, the initial detonation, deafening anyone unfortunate
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enough to be in the vicinity. Blasting upwards faster than
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the speed of sound, a plume of ash and pummice
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reaches the edge of space within minutes, spreading literally to
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plunge everywhere below into pitch darkness. A torrent of hot
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ash and pummice falling across yellowstone in the surrounding region
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starts fires, heats the air, and makes it almost impossible
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to breathe. But there's worse to come, much worse. As
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part of the column collapses under its own weight. It
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triggers fast moving surges of hot ash, incandescent gas, and
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near molten plumae fragments known as pyroclastic flows, that hurtle
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outwards in all directions, traveling at speeds of more than
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one hundred eighty miles per hour. Overtopping hills and filling valleys.
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These pyroclastic flows destroy and bury everything within about sixty
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miles of the vent, turning every living thing from lodgepole,
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pine to chipmunk, from moose to human into charcoal. Meanwhile,
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the upper part of the column of ash and plumus
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expands rapidly, even pushing against prevailing winds, forming an ever
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widening giant umbrella that brings darkness and a deluge of
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ash and pummice as he goes. Within twenty four hours,
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ash should be falling across much of the United States
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and parts of Canada, bringing down power lines, shorting out electronics,
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causing transport chaos, flattening crops in the fields, and contaminating
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water supplies. Normal life would be at a standstill. Modeling
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of the ash cloud generated by a future Yellowstone supereruption,
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conducted by USGS scientist Larry Maston and colleagues reveals that
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for most scenarios, ash more than a centimeter deep would
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cover a land area of anything between a few and
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several million kilometers. Places like Miami and New York would
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get away with just a few millimeters of falling ash,
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while up to three centimeters would fall as far afield
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as Chicago, San Francisco, and Winnipeg, and Canada. Anywhere closer
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than nine hundred and thirty miles like Denver and Salt
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Lake City, would experience extremely disruptive ashfall, the depth increasing
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to minimeters as yellowstone is approached. As ash particles act
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as nuclei for water in the atmosphere, heavy rains would
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be triggered to add to the mayhem, turning much of
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the country into a sea of mud, clogging rivers and
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bringing widespread flooding. The ash would also carry with it
24:11
huge quantities of toxic metals such as arsenic, cadmium, lead,
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and mercury, bringing the potential for long term contamination of water,
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crops and animal feed. It's likely that all of this
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ash won't be dumped in one go, and that the
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eruption will happen in stages, perhaps as new events open up,
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extending its disruptive impact. The worst could well come during
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the climactic phase, when magma is erupted in the form
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of giant curtains along great arcing fractures. These would open
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as the central block of crust above the magma reservoir
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sinks into the evacuated space to form a new caldera.
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In total, the whole thing could last for weeks, perhaps
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as long as a month, but this is just the beginning.
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While the effects of the heavy and extensive ash fall
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would devastate agriculture across most of North America and bring
25:05
the US economy to its knees, this isn't the worst
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of it. Any remaining ash in the atmosphere will settle
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out pretty quickly, But this isn't the case for the
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vast quantities of sulfur dioxide gas blasted high into the
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stratosphere during the eruption, which will spread across the planet
25:23
within weeks. When combined with atmospheric water vapor, the gas
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forms an aerosol of tiny particles that build a global vale.
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This shields the planet from incoming sunlight and lowers surface temperatures.
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The nineteen ninety one eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the
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Philippines brought about a sudden drop in global temperature of
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around zero point five degrees celsius for a couple of years.
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Although this was the second biggest volcano blast of the
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twentieth century, it was around one hundred times smaller than
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Yellowstone's Lava Creek supereruption. Traveling back a couple of centuries,
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the Great eighteen fifteen eruption of Indonesia's Tambora volcano had
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a major impact on global weather, leading to the so
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called Year without a Summer in Europe. Widespread harvest failures
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across the continent and in the Eastern United States brought
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civil unrest, bread riots, and the last major subsistence crisis
26:23
in the developed world. What then, would be the result
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of a future Yellowstone explosion that was twenty five times bigger.
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It would be reasonable to think that scaling up would
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result in a much bigger climate impact, and computer modeling
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suggests this is the case. The global temperature after a
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Yellowstone super eruption sized event is predicted to fall by
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up to four degrees sea or seven degrees fahrenheit on average,
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by up to seven degrees sea or thirteen degrees fahrenheit
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across land, and by more than eighteen degrees fahrenheit across
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central North americaperature begin to climb again within a few years,
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but it takes a couple of decades for them to
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return to previous levels. Not surprisingly, the sea ice cover
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at the poles increases significantly, and there are major changes
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in global weather patterns. Needless to say, such severe cooling
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would be catastrophic for global agriculture, leading to widespread harvest
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failure and famine on an unimaginable scale. All things considered,
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it be a surprise if global society and economy survived
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in any form that we might recognize. But there's a
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glimmer of light through the gloom. A recent NASA study
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has broken with the consensus to speculate that the temperature
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fall following Yellowstone superieruption might end up not being much
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greater than that following Pinatubo or Tambora. So good news. Maybe.
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Perhaps the only saving grace is that, as the latest
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research tells us, it doesn't look like happening anytime. Well
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that's all for today's Diary of Science and Nature. Your
28:04
reader was Kelly Taylor. Now stay tuned for the Health
28:07
Corner on RADIOI