Latest / Uncomfortable Conversations with Josh Szeps / “Authoritarianism in Europe” with Péter Krekó
Transcript
- 0:00G'day, humans! Welcome to the safe space for dangerous ideas, and let me tell you, there
- 0:06are a few dangerous ideas floating around Europe. At the moment, as we look towards this
- 0:12weekend's second round runoff elections in France, President Emmanuel Macron has rolled
- 0:18the dice, and everyone is waiting with baited breath to see whether or not, as much of the
- 0:23legacy media puts it, France will be governed by a far-right party for the first time since
- 0:29the Vichy regime during World War II. I'll get to more of that in a moment, but this
- 0:34episode is about the only example, really, of a true slide of a democracy into semi-authoritarianism
- 0:43in Europe, inside the European Union. Thanks to a strong man in Hungary, who's become
- 0:48something of a poster child for right wingers all over the world, from Tucker Carlson to
- 0:53Donald Trump. They seem to love Viktor Orban. Orban is in the news again this week because
- 0:59he is Europe's most pro-Russian leader, and Hungary, the country that he's been running
- 1:06for 14 years, has just taken over the rotating European Union presidency. This is something
- 1:13that each country gets for one year. It's now Hungary's turn, and the first thing that
- 1:17Orban has done is he's popped up in Kiev to hold talks with President Vladimir Zelensky
- 1:24about why Ukraine should stop fighting and should beg Russia for peace, basically. Viktor
- 1:31Orban's foreign minister in Hungary has made at least five trips to Russia since the start
- 1:36of the war. NATO has been pretty appalled that Hungary, which is a NATO alliance member,
- 1:43and a member of the European Union, would be cosying up to Vladimir Putin and refusing
- 1:48to help Ukraine. Hungary has really become a thorn in the side of the European Union,
- 1:53diplomats in Brussels, hate this situation they find themselves in, where basically if
- 1:58Hungary was as authoritarian as it is now, when it was admitted to the European Union,
- 2:03it would never have been admitted to the European Union, but what do you do now that they're
- 2:06in the club? Ditto NATO. This all comes against the backdrop, of course, of a lot of mini-me
- 2:13Orban style, right wing candidates sweeping the European Union elections from multiple
- 2:19countries across Europe. That's what prompted the French President, Emmanuel Macron,
- 2:24to roll the dice and call a snap parliamentary election in France. That second round takes
- 2:30place this Sunday, and yes, could lead to the first far-right government in France since
- 2:36World War II. Just to be clear, President Macron would not lose power in France. He's
- 2:42there until 2027. They have five year terms as President. It's worth saying, at the last
- 2:48presidential election in 2022, Macron only won 58% of the vote, even though he was up against
- 2:54the far-right presidential candidate, Marie Le Pen, rather than running against one of
- 2:59the major party candidates. Big tidal shifts in public opinion in Europe and France would
- 3:08be by far the biggest and most important country to be led by a, quote unquote, far-right government.
- 3:15So what does far-right mean? This episode is with someone who lives in Budapest, and is
- 3:21something of a dissident against Viktor Orban, and can get really into the weeds for those
- 3:25of us who are inclined to political wonkery about what has been happening in Hungary. Probably
- 3:32worth just giving you a bit of a backdrop about Hungary, a refresher course in case you're
- 3:38not an avid student of Hungarian history. You may remember, it was part of Austria-Hungary
- 3:45between the 1860s and the end of the First World War. They lost the First World War, so
- 3:51then they ended up on the wrong side of the Second World War as well, along with Italy
- 3:55and Germany. After that, became a vassal state of the Soviet Union, so they had to endure
- 4:01communism right through until the 50s. Then they had a revolution in 1956, which captured
- 4:08the world's attention and was this big beacon of will the students and the smaller liberals
- 4:14be able to wrestle power back from the communists, long story short, not exactly, maybe a little
- 4:20bit. At the end of the Cold War in the late 80s when the Soviet Union fell apart, Hungary
- 4:26was one of the most successful countries to come out of the Soviet era. I mean, it rapidly
- 4:31modernised, rapidly transformed. You could visit Hungary in the early 2000s, and it was
- 4:37this dynamic country. It joined the European Union. It joined NATO. It's decline in the
- 4:45past decade or so from being a fully fledged liberal democracy up and coming freedom
- 4:52country to being essentially undermined by an authoritarian is a really good case study
- 5:00in what can happen. When you sort of take for granted norms that we're all supposed
- 5:05to live by in free societies, what happens when the Federal Reserve is no longer independent
- 5:11as has happened in Hungary? What happens when the Supreme Court is no longer unbiased
- 5:17as has happened in Hungary and perhaps in a few other countries that we could point at?
- 5:23What happens when news outlets receive partisan pressure or nudging or influence from government
- 5:29officials and essentially become mouthpieces of the state? What happens when COVID emergency
- 5:36decrees centralised power and then the government doesn't take it away? What happens when governments
- 5:42install loyalist judges who will give them a pass on anything they want to do? What happens
- 5:48when governments try to constrain opposition parties or hunt down their opponents or make
- 5:52it difficult for opposition parties to raise money and to advertise? Today's guest, Peter
- 5:59Krekko knows all about this. He's lived through it. He's an academic. He studies it. As I said,
- 6:04this is definitely one for the wants in the sense that this is specifically about what's
- 6:08been going on in Hungary, but you don't have to step back very far to understand what could
- 6:14happen in France and what indeed could happen anywhere else. Just a note about the French elections
- 6:20and the far right in France, the National Rally, as they're now called, formally the National Front.
- 6:28I have been frustrated, disappointed, by so much of the coverage in the Western media,
- 6:36which is saying things like this would be the first far right government since Vichy. I
- 6:41wrote this on my substack notes. You should follow me on substack notes. Should you care to do so,
- 6:46because it provides an opportunity to chat about things in ways that I don't really want to
- 6:51on Twitter and the character count prevents me from doing in long form on Twitter. I think there's
- 6:58really something to be said for still being able to communicate with you and hear from you in writing
- 7:03rather than just in sound bites on Instagram reels and TikTok and so on. So I wrote on in my first
- 7:09ever substack note the following. Is anyone else finding it hard to understand the true stakes of
- 7:15the French election? The New York Times says, quote, for the first time since the Vichy regime,
- 7:21France would be in the hands of the far right. National public radio in the United States writes
- 7:27that the election could put quote, the far right in French government for the first time since the
- 7:32Vichy regime collaborated with the Nazis in World War II. I wrote, guys, guys, guys, the Vichy
- 7:41government was an authoritarian dictatorship that in turned Jews, Romani and Gays in concentration
- 7:47camps. The comparison with the National Rally, that's the French far right party, which did so
- 7:53well in the first round elections recently and it may sweep to power on Sunday. The comparison
- 8:00with the National Rally may have been valid at a stretch 52 years ago when the National Front
- 8:04was founded as a fascistic anti-Semitic movement, but its founder was expelled from the party a decade
- 8:10ago and it now presents itself as a populist party of national conservatives. What does this party
- 8:18in 2024 have in common with Vichy's 1940 Nazi collaborators except that sensationalist journalists
- 8:26get a heart on when they write the words far right? It's an honest question, I wrote. Is the risk
- 8:32that the Rally poses to France akin to a French Vladimir Putin that is an existential threat to
- 8:38democracy or a French victor Orbán that is catastrophic but not existential or a French Georgian
- 8:46Maloney, the Italian Prime Minister, that is nasty but manageable. Legacy media outlets, I wrote on
- 8:54my sub-stagnot, seem more committed to arm-waving catastrophisation than to describing what specific
- 9:00policies are attracting non-crazy French voters to the Rally's platform. I will have more to say
- 9:08and more insights to bring about the French far right. Suffice it to say, I don't believe,
- 9:15you know, do not trust any outlet that is making comparisons between the National Rally today and
- 9:21the Vichy regime of Nazi collaborators. It's a lot more complicated than that. The strains of
- 9:28right-wing reactionary politics and anti-immigrant sentiment across Europe are much more complicated
- 9:33than simply drawing analogies at a stretch with World War II. I hope you enjoy this episode. We
- 9:41recorded this back in February, so we're not talking specifically about this. I was sort of waiting
- 9:45for a moment when Victor Orbán would come up in the news because I thought this is a moment when
- 9:49you're going to want a real deep dive into one particular country's plight. Professor Peter
- 9:55Cracko lives and works in Budapest. He's an economist and political scientist. He's a researcher
- 9:59at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, and I hope you enjoy this glimpse into how a democratic
- 10:05country can be dismantled into a semi-authoritarian state. Enjoy the one and only Professor Peter Cracko.
- 10:13I'm not surprised. Hungary's experience is fascinating to me, Peter, because although my name is
- 10:22Hungarian for some reason that I don't know, although I have been to Budapest and loved it,
- 10:30I have no affiliation with the country except that whenever I'm speaking with friends of mine who
- 10:36are in the European milieu of EU elites, they express grave concern about the fact that there's a
- 10:45European Union member that is becoming a semi-authoritarian regime of a kind that would not have
- 10:54been accepted into the EU had it had the political complexion that it does now. And then on the
- 11:01other hand, when I speak to American conservative friends of mine, they speak about the Hungarian
- 11:05government as this bastion that we should be looking towards of a robust vision of cultural
- 11:13conservatism and common sense in a sea of work, social justice, crazies in the Anglo world.
- 11:22What am I to make of those two different perceptions? Yeah, good question. I mean, I have to tell,
- 11:30I'm a liberal guy, but liberal more, I think, in the European sense, a bit less in the
- 11:40Anglo-Saxon sense, where it's more the synonym of being a lefty. So I'm not a lefty. I'm more,
- 11:51let's say, centrist liberal, but as that, I rather share many of the concerns that the European
- 12:02have to say, pro-democratic forces, including the center, I don't forget it, European people's
- 12:07party share, because of the demolition and destruction of the independent institutions in Hungary,
- 12:16and it's, you know, 100 in a small country of only 10 million. So with a very strong government
- 12:24centralization and with taking over some of the institutions, the exercise of power in a small
- 12:31country like that can be way, way more effective than in a big country. And of course, in a more,
- 12:40I have to say, where regionalism matters more like in the United States, but also in Germany,
- 12:46and elsewhere. So I think that there are really some unhealthy developments, and I honestly do
- 12:55not share the values of the government, especially when it comes to issues like anti-AGBT policies
- 13:04and rhetoric, which sometimes gets pretty nasty, and it's not about, I mean, what you have to
- 13:11know is that there is no such a thing as a woke ideology in Hungary, and I'm really not a big fan
- 13:18of what I did. Whoever fights with wokeism here in Budapest these days, you are just, you know,
- 13:24fighting with the ghosts, because they are not really there. And also, it's a part of conservative
- 13:34government. On the other hand, I have some good relationship with some of the friends of the
- 13:40government from the end of sex group, like Madsville, her. Sorry to interrupt, but to people who
- 13:47haven't been following, you know, the history of Hungary over the past decade, when you just
- 13:54mentioned the demolition and destruction of independent institutions, what is that? What does that
- 13:59look like? What has happened? I mean, to tell you a few examples, I mean, the Hungary
- 14:08traditionally more followed the German constitutional model, that is built on very strong
- 14:18checks and balances. Of course, built on the historical experience that if you do not have
- 14:25this checks and balances, the things can go pretty bad as it happened in Germany in the 20th
- 14:31century and in the 30s practically. But for example, the constitutional court had been one of the
- 14:41most important institutions counter-balancing governmental and mostly I'm in parliamentary decisions.
- 14:51The constitutional court, sorry, is what? Is that the equivalent of a supreme court or a high court?
- 14:55Yes, exactly. Exactly. And what has happened with the constitutional court, for example, Van
- 15:01Orban came to power back to 2010, is that the right and the right of the constitutional court
- 15:09has been narrowed. Some of the rights, the constitutional court were stripped off and it was
- 15:17watered up with loyalists close to the government. Of course, I mean, the political game is
- 15:22something similar. I think that in the United States, and yes, there are many similarities.
- 15:26There's between the poetics of the United States and Hungary, even if I'm in the...
- 15:32Sorry, how are justices of the supreme court, high court, constitutional court appointed?
- 15:39Is that by the Prime Minister or is it by Parliament?
- 15:41No, it's by the Parliament, but given that the Hungarian government has a two-thirds backing.
- 15:48In the Parliament, it has no problem with selecting practically whoever they want to. Same happened
- 15:56previously with the central bank that has been more independent from the government beforehand.
- 16:05Right now, in an ironic manner, because there are some conflicts between economic policy
- 16:11decision makers on who made the mistakes in the last few years, the central bank is becoming
- 16:17again a bit more independent. But the independence has been reduced. The prosecutor's office in
- 16:26Hungary is playing very actively in burying all the corruption cases that were allegedly some
- 16:35members of the government or people close to the government are involved. Because of the fact
- 16:41that the prosecutor's office can block the judicial procedure and can hamper the process to go
- 16:51into the judicial phase, this is a very highly efficient shield for the government. The media
- 16:59authority has also turned to be much more loyal to the government and why the media
- 17:06authority allows pro-governmental media merges. What is the media authority? That is a department
- 17:14that controls who can own media licenses and who can run radio stations and television stations?
- 17:21That's exactly so. They, on the one hand, are responsible for giving licenses. For example,
- 17:31when it comes to the radio stations, but also they can release fines if they think that someone
- 17:39hurts the relevant lows on what can be shown on media and what not. But also what is pretty
- 17:47important is that the media authority together with the competition authority are responsible
- 17:54for saying yes or no to media merges. In Hungary we could see the biggest, I think the biggest
- 18:03media merge not necessarily in terms of absolute net value, but in terms of the size, I mean,
- 18:11compared it to the size of the country, the most important media concentration. So it's like
- 18:18Silvio Berlusconi, I think, could have never dreamed of such a media empire. I mean, of course,
- 18:24compare it to the size of the country. What is this media empire? What is this media empire?
- 18:30This media empire is partially state-owned media that have really become pretty propagandistic.
- 18:38If you take a look at the media landscape in Hungary, this is, I mean, if you switch on
- 18:45public television or radio, it is really similar than, let's say, Russia today or something like that,
- 18:52or I would say, you know, the other is state television, but with zero criticism towards the
- 19:00government, but it's not the only part of the story because previously private media also put
- 19:12in a huge gigaconglomerate called Kashmah, the Central European Media Foundation, and it's a huge
- 19:23foundation, and it owns more than 500 media outlets, and it's just beyond the state-owned
- 19:33media empire, which is also pretty big. So about more than 80% of the Hungarian media in terms of
- 19:39ownership and revenues belongs to the government directly or indirectly.
- 19:47Right. But the relevant thing here is about the editorial control of the media, right? Because
- 19:53some countries have very large government ownership of media outlets like the United Kingdom,
- 20:00for example, where the BBC is a behemoth, but the BBC is independent, supposedly, from government
- 20:06interference. What has changed in Hungary? And was it ever the case that in Hungary there was a robust
- 20:14independent state-owned media like the BBC that was fearless in its criticism of government,
- 20:22and if so, what happened to it? Yeah, good question. Because, of course, the situation was never,
- 20:29you know, white. And I think the public media is rarely back or white in the sense that, of
- 20:40course, all the government beforehand, to different extent, but use the public media to put
- 20:49their sum of the loyal faces, and, of course, some editorial control have worked, which, and it
- 20:58was never totally independent from politics, and you know, the situation is easy. BBC receives
- 21:05most of its revenues from the subscription fees, practically. We can say more or less directly.
- 21:13Yes, but that's a mandatory subscription, so it's like a tax.
- 21:16Yes, it's exactly, but it does not need a political decision. In the case of Hungary,
- 21:24it needs a political decision, because the parliament have to approve the budget in which you have
- 21:30the line for the state media as well. What we can, what we could see, though, between let's say
- 21:382002 and 2010, where it was a socially broad government in Hungary, that yeah, you could feel,
- 21:43I mean, if someone would just come to Hungary, not knowing who is the government there, switch on
- 21:52the TV. Let's imagine that Jörgis speaks perfect Hungarian, and then I think, and know something about
- 22:00politics in another country, I think after an hour or two hours, Jörgis would have figured it out,
- 22:06that it's okay. It must be a lefty government in place, but it was still way more subtle. It was
- 22:13way less direct than what we can see now, where the state media have really become a propaganda
- 22:22machine that does not, you know, comply to the basic journalistic standards and ethical rules.
- 22:30Then you had, for example, interviews in which the box popular was the camera man sitting on the
- 22:37other side of the camera, for example, or when you could see fake stories, for example, on
- 22:49Swedish people that are escaping from Sweden and coming to Hungary because they thought that
- 22:56Sweden is a nightmare and so on. So it's really not a, we cannot just say that it's biased,
- 23:05but we can also say that it is lacking the minimal ethical and journalistic standards in many
- 23:13cases. And unfortunately, this is something that is quite typical in the pro-governmental media.
- 23:18So it's not only polarized, it's like the minimum media ethos that you have to be to a certain
- 23:27extent, you know, or to a large extent, credibly in the sense that you do not go against effects.
- 23:34So it's not re-happening. And of course, we can say that, again, it's not something as a hunger
- 23:40and invention. The whole concept of post truth comes from the Anglo-Saxon word. And in many
- 23:46sense, what the government does in the media and in the public communication and in the public
- 23:52campaigns is an Anglo-Saxon import. But also, when it comes to the institution background of the
- 23:58media, I think it shows more similarity to the Russian situation. I mean, what the way how
- 24:06letting a Putin centralize the media after the cursed submarine catastrophe in the early days of
- 24:12his presidency, when he could feel that if there is an independent media, then it can hurt my
- 24:18popularity and bring me down. I think something similar happened here. First, the government friendly
- 24:28oligarchs both up the media and then turn them into mouthpieces that are
- 24:35parroting the governmental messages. And if you ask about editorial control, there are regular
- 24:42political guidances for the editors and we know it from leaked audio tapes. And we also know it from
- 24:51people who were working in the public media or the governmental media and left it and become
- 24:58some kind of, let's say, whistleblowers. That's extraordinary. Because I mean, when you say that
- 25:04in the previous central left government, you could probably have picked that the state run media,
- 25:10that the state media was left with bias towards the left. I do think there's a difference between
- 25:19a sort of ideological bias that sometimes stems from the fact that journalists that tend to be left
- 25:26wing versus a procedural being procedurally captive to the government that's in power.
- 25:35I think you find that the news in many places is left wing because of the types of people who
- 25:41choose to work in that industry. But it's a different story when you're literally
- 25:48burying stories or receiving talking points or giving politicians a pass specifically because
- 25:55you're beholden in a partisan way to a particular government. And you mentioned earlier that there
- 26:01were sort of talking points or things that the media either is encouraged to say or is punished
- 26:10for saying, is that true? How does that work? Let me give you an example. That's a very important
- 26:17point what you raised. Because of course, I'm not a journalist, but my conviction that there is
- 26:28no such a thing as totally objective media. And honestly, it would be pretty boring. So no one
- 26:32would be interested. Because I mean, if you just purely present the facts, how do you select them?
- 26:39What kind of, what kind of, I mean, you know, where you set you put them into. So it's like
- 26:46and it shouldn't even be the expectation. But here, I think often the false logic is that there is
- 26:51no such a thing as objective media, which means that you can go totally partisan and should not even
- 26:57try the facts because there are no facts. And the two things are totally different. And let me tell
- 27:04you two examples about what's often can be seen in the pro-governmental media. And even in
- 27:12so-called public media, which I rather call state media. So we used to call it government
- 27:18controlled media. So if you, for example, as an editor, talk about the government and the right
- 27:32in Hungary saying always that we are doing this, we are doing that. And so I mean, then it means that
- 27:40you do not even take the minimum effort to try to pretend that you distance yourself to a certain
- 27:48extent from what's happening in the, on the government to say that not necessarily a news,
- 27:54but in, you know, in, in, in, even in opinion shows you, you always have this kind of characters
- 28:02that are just talking about themselves as part of the, part of the government or the government
- 28:09or side. Second example, when there was a migration crisis in Hungary in 2014, 2015, Hungary was
- 28:21never- Just to remind people, this is during the Arab Spring. A lot of people coming from Syria
- 28:26and elsewhere in the Middle East into European countries. And Hungary is one of the first countries
- 28:32that you would reach if you were trying to get into the European Union. Yeah, it was the
- 28:36consequence of the Arab Spring a bit later. And it's like mostly the Syrian civil war was the,
- 28:44was the most important reason why many people were fleeing. But of course, the situation was a
- 28:49bit more complex. Russia played quite hard to exacerbate the migration crisis with military
- 28:56intervention and also human smuggling and so on. And it was also successful to certain extent.
- 29:02What happened is that most of the refugees who wanted to go to Germany or Austria, they have to
- 29:08go through Hungary. And, and the Hungarian government have pretty early started a very
- 29:18aggressive anti-immigrant, anti-refugee campaign. And of, again, it's not something as a
- 29:26Hungarian. When we have these voices in the US, we have these voices in other parts of Europe as
- 29:33well. But there was a circular that sent, that were sent to the editors at the public television.
- 29:40And it said that you can never show women and especially children when you show the
- 29:48footages of the, of the refugees. They call them, and you, you can never call them refugees,
- 29:55you can only call them migrants. So the, you, you, you have to kill out the empathy from other people
- 30:02towards, towards, towards the migrants. And, and that's, that's just one example of the many,
- 30:11or there was another circular that said that you cannot label the published right parties in
- 30:18Europe, far right parties. Because it's like, it's more and more the, how to say, the, the
- 30:24alliance that fed us fits into so be careful about how you. And who is sending these women?
- 30:30The member of the media. Is it the department of media or the, is it the prime minister's office?
- 30:35Who's sending these memos to the media? Usually it comes from the media. But as, as I said,
- 30:40what we know from the operation of the media is that the orders are usually, and the phone calls
- 30:47and so on are coming from above, from the political level. In many sense. So the Hungarian,
- 30:54I mean, I'm trying to think of, I'm trying to just trying to think of how this would play out in
- 31:00a, a liberal democracy that was more robust. I mean, if you, if that happened,
- 31:06and if that happened in any of the newsrooms that I work in, that, I mean, it would be regarded
- 31:13as so taboo by the editors and the producers at the newsroom that it would almost just encourage
- 31:22them to go in the opposite direction. So were there people who did that? And what would happen
- 31:27to them? How would those people suffer consequences? Because in Australia, there would be no
- 31:33consequence. I mean, you'd probably get promoted for defying the government order.
- 31:41Yeah, it's, it's a perfect question. I think because it's not always obvious. I mean,
- 31:50there are some stories where journalists have been fired from pro-governmental or state-owned
- 32:00media because, because they were not following the line. And then, then as I said, or some of them
- 32:08have become whistleblowers or at least give some interviews in the public and told about how
- 32:15strongly the media was controlled and how obvious orders you receive for your editorial work.
- 32:25And, but also we have to tell that the reason why these institutions can work so efficiently.
- 32:32And the reason why the political occupation of these institutions can work so efficiently
- 32:39is that people are willing to follow the line and figure out what the line could be. So it's not
- 32:48always just the circulars, but it's also, in many cases, people who comply to the circulars,
- 32:54but also people who try to figure out what can be in the head of decision makers. So what, and this
- 33:00is what what Timot is neither cause. And I think it's a brilliant term that describes well the,
- 33:08how to say, the subjective side of the increasingly autocratic red shims, the anticipatory obedience.
- 33:17So when you try to figure it out, what could be the rule that you have to follow if you want to
- 33:23be a Guss Comrade. And that's clearly part of the picture. And it's everywhere. So, and at
- 33:30and at that point, of course, we can also tell that if the society works a bit differently,
- 33:37we have to put it into historical context in the 20th century of Hungary, you know,
- 33:43totalitarian laughing and right wing regimes, you're both in place, but it's like in hungry,
- 33:53the democracy has very real genome in democracy has just a very short history. So there are these
- 34:01reflexes in the societies that, okay, you just have to follow the rules and you have to follow the
- 34:07and and I think it clearly could play out differently in the United States quite interestingly. And
- 34:15let me also raise a point that I found as a research of conspiracy theories and this information.
- 34:23What I see is that, you know, in highly polarized environments like the United States, the
- 34:30the result when it comes to the public opinion can be quite similar. Then in an increasingly
- 34:37authoritarian centralized environment like in in Hungary, the belief in conspiracy,
- 34:42weird conspiracy theories in Hungary is just on an on an extremely high level, you know, about
- 34:50more than half of the Fidesz voters thing, for example, that there are US biolabs in Ukraine,
- 34:56therefore, you know, Russia has some kind of justified action of of quoting WhatsApp defense when
- 35:06it attacks Ukraine or that Ukraine develop nuclear weapons and things like that and why is it
- 35:12these thoughts are popular because they are spread by the public media. But then when we can see that
- 35:20that in the US, you know, there are the quantum conspiracy theory, quantum conspiracy theories,
- 35:27the satanic panic, conspiracy theories that my friend Jooshinsky from the University of Miami have
- 35:36did good research about, but also that conspiracy theories are all over the place and in Hungary as
- 35:42well, you know, I mean, conspiracy theories on that urban is just a puppet of Putin or that he
- 35:51goes regularly to say hi a trick treatment because, you know, he's a madman, he's just like doctors
- 35:57have to keep him in his place and it's and to keep him in bay when it comes to psychological
- 36:06conditions. So all over this hyperbolic narratives are all over the place and I think it's increasing
- 36:12the case in the United States and in a totally different environment in Hungary as well. It's also
- 36:18the case and I just want to say that even if I think the editorial practices are can be totally
- 36:28different in the US and I think you might be right that it's like if editors are told what you
- 36:34have to write about and what not, maybe in the US it works more as a counter indicator, but because
- 36:40of the increasing polarization that people are involved emotionally in the emotional war,
- 36:48the end result when it comes to the mindset of the voters can be a bit bitter. Yeah, and certainly
- 36:55it depends on the on the ethos in the organization in the journalistic organization. You can look at
- 37:01the behavior of Fox News during the Trump administration and see it functioning almost as a state
- 37:07a state-run media organization. So let's move from the media to other institutions. You mentioned
- 37:14the judiciary. I think it's it's easier for people in the Anglo-Saxon world to see how you could
- 37:22stack or rig the justice system because we see the Supreme Court over the United States full of
- 37:28political appointees and it's obvious that the types of cases that get prosecuted are dependent
- 37:35on who is doing the prosecuting. So if Donald Trump wins re-election and he controls the Department
- 37:41of Justice, they will be going after a whole bunch of different people and not going after a whole
- 37:46bunch of people like him that the current Justice Department is. Is there any particular way that
- 37:54you can explain how that has derailed in Hungary to a greater extent that is worse than what we see
- 38:02elsewhere? Yes, very important question. I will be rather brief and have to draw the limits of
- 38:12my expertise. I'm not a legal scholar so I I can talk about the big picture when it comes to
- 38:18the little nuances is better to talk to a constitutional lawyer in Hungary but not it's not just
- 38:27by mistake that the most important points of debate right now between the European
- 38:34Commission and the Hungarian government. The European Commission is the government of the European
- 38:41Union, the executive branch of the European Union even if we cannot directly translate national
- 38:48politicalist, democratic institutions to the EU level but it's something similar and the
- 38:53and Hungary this debate has a huge stake. How much money Hungary gets from the European Union?
- 39:00About two thirds of the funds that have been frozen because Hungary does not comply with some of
- 39:10the democratic practices that the EU would like it to comply to. Two thirds of them are still
- 39:18frozen so it's and we are talking about huge amounts of money that are very relevant on the
- 39:27on the budgetary level and on the macro level of of Hungary. So in the center of the debate is
- 39:35how much the judiciary is independent in Hungary and because it was noticed and I think for good
- 39:43reasons in the European Union as well. Let's say for example the early retirement of judges
- 39:50and you know a new influx of younger easier to control sometimes more
- 40:00lawyers that are more loyal to the government so there it can make a substantial change in the
- 40:09in in how what decisions are made by the judiciary. Also we can tell that there has been some
- 40:16important judiciary forms that practically separated two branches of the of the of the judicial
- 40:24system and there has been quite a lot of controversy between the two sides. So the politicization
- 40:31have begun. What was that reform? Can you explain that? The reform you were just talking about that
- 40:37split the judicial system into two pieces? That's where I think it's better if you talk about it.
- 40:44Where I think the judicial lawyer really I do what I do. It might be but I don't want to say
- 40:51any stupid things so I mean let I what what I mean what we can tell for sure is that
- 41:00and it's it's also based on my experiences for example I mean I was I was I was subjects of
- 41:09of some disinformation campaigns in Hungary where there were some really
- 41:14ridiculous statements made on me and in some cases you know we we asked for some correction
- 41:21some other cases we we also it was a legal case and and you know in like libel sorry it's like
- 41:32you know eight ten years ago you could pretty you could be rather sure that they were claiming
- 41:40if someone was claimed in the media that is factually highly incorrect and it's easy to prove
- 41:46that it's incorrect then the judiciary asks the editorial office of the given media
- 41:57institution that okay you have to you have to correct that in in the last cases we had and it
- 42:05they were totally really obvious cases it's like when it cadents to the highest court of the
- 42:11judicial decision making and this is the courier that was also set up by this new system so a
- 42:20third rule of appeal practically where usually the most how to say and where the
- 42:29politically most sensitive cases go and what we can often see is that if this case is pretty
- 42:38important then it it it curia body or a board receives it that that is usually rather governmental
- 42:50leaning and its personal composition you can find just you know relatives of governmental members
- 42:57that are on board and surprisingly they usually make a decision that for example if someone is
- 43:03very close to the governmental side an important person then any press correction requests are just
- 43:12turned down so also there was there was this part of reform to set up a third level of of of
- 43:20appeal and and and and I mean as a result the Hungarian judiciary have clearly lost parts of
- 43:29independence I would say that it's still rather independent in many sense and it's it's important
- 43:36not to see things as black and white and it's I think the illegal regimes like Hungary the nature
- 43:41of these illegal regimes is that there are 50 shades of gray you rarely see black and white there
- 43:47are there are shades of gray but but what is also a very important point and this is something that
- 43:55I mentioned that that the prosecutors office can block the investigations from going into the
- 44:05judicial phase and it means that that if the chief prosecutor in Hungary is loyal to the
- 44:14government that is very loyal to the government then practically no corruption cases can hurt
- 44:21the governmental side because they were not even appear on the on the table of the court sorry for it
- 44:28it was a bit a bit unclear and again no that makes sense it's like I'm lacking a bit also the
- 44:34legal terminology because I'm not a legal scholar and maybe I can understand who gets rather right
- 44:40somewhat sensitive and and is Hungary is not a federation so you don't have state level you know
- 44:48canton or a province level prosecutors yeah hungry is a country of 10 million so it's like
- 45:00yeah I so the one prosecutor calls all the shots and if they're loyal to the
- 45:05prosecutor calls all the shots and it's it's it's a country that that that is really small
- 45:11and traditionally rather centralized we have to tell it as well but it had after the
- 45:20transition so hungry was transformed from a state socialist or communist country a soft
- 45:27communist country to a democratic country back to 1990 in the big wave of democratization and
- 45:34then a big wave was decentralization came as well when schools municipalities counties cities
- 45:45student organizations have received way more power than they had before and it was substantial
- 45:51power but then the recognition in many countries was that oh wait be over decentralized then
- 45:59it practically kills the decision ability of the governmental decision-making and there was
- 46:06again a recent realization trend but in it not everywhere it went go far as far as in hungry
- 46:15in hungry for an example I mean to tell you a few examples the schools and elementary schools
- 46:23and the hospitals belong to the municipalities to the cities and they run them and they
- 46:30did rather efficiently right now the government runs the show there as well the mosquitos were killed
- 46:38by the by the cities and municipalities before it's also done by the government right and I can
- 46:44tell you living in a neighborhood where there are quite a lot of mosquitos that they are not always
- 46:51and is that an urban reform those centralizations some of them are urban reforms some of them
- 46:59were particular reforms that were coming during the covid era so the covid have led to even
- 47:08more centralization and do you think that was being used as a pretext or was there a rational
- 47:14justification for that during covid in some key I mean for you know for temporary decisions I think
- 47:22this kind of centralization was to a certain extent inevitable and but for some other reasons they
- 47:29just used it as a pretext I mean give you one example they pass over a load that allows
- 47:38big Chinese investments in Hungary this so-called Budapest Baggage Railway line and it was also
- 47:45made totally confidential so we just it is built by state money by the end of the day with
- 47:51partially Chinese constructors but while Chinese loans Serbia and Hungary are practically I have
- 47:57bought up by China by this big project but it does not seem self evident that it's so valuable
- 48:08for the Hungarian voters and it was made confidential and and and you know they made many
- 48:14government decisions that had suspicion of corruption confidential just referring to the
- 48:22you know interest of the state in the pandemic period so in Hungary there is practically
- 48:28permanently there is that some special legal status or that that sorry I just forgot this word
- 48:44then you have when it's easier for the government to make decisions and the
- 48:49rights of the parliament are partially suspended so it's and there was these special legal
- 48:58statuses because of the migration situation even when it appeared then because of the pandemic
- 49:04and it ran pretty high and right now because of the war and and there seems to be a very strong
- 49:12willingness on the Hungarian government to keep of these special legal periods because it just
- 49:22helps the government to do whatever they want with with very minimal parliamentary control and
- 49:30with minimal public control as well so I think that it was used as a pretext and it's like I
- 49:35mean there are some similarities between Hungary and the US if we take a look at the political
- 49:41landscape but I think there's a vast huge difference on the right in Hungary there is no
- 49:48how to say anti federally sentiment at all just the very opposite so the Hungarian
- 49:55Hungarian right is more ethicist it's more statist and in that respect I think the Hungarian
- 50:01tradition and and it's particularly become so is becoming more like the French one with a very
- 50:09strong central government and with with with a philosophy that a strong state is pretty much
- 50:17needed to push over the will of the people if we want to be yes I'm glad you mentioned France I was
- 50:24thinking of France because I don't think that you that this is about Hungary's population of 10
- 50:29million people you can have big centralized countries like the United Kingdom is quite centralized
- 50:34and friends are quite centralized and you can have small decentralized decentralized countries
- 50:39like Switzerland where you know there is considerable local power so I don't want us to think that
- 50:45we can escape Hungary's fate just because we're in larger country countries necessarily so in
- 50:52January I saw reports that the European Union was debating whether to sanction Hungary further
- 50:58because of reforms that Obern brought in last year were those the judicial reforms or what was
- 51:04the what happened in the middle of last year that got the European Union upset it was partially
- 51:12about the judiciary forms it was also about about some other measures of the government like
- 51:22like this rearrangement of the university sector that according to critics of the government have
- 51:29just posed I mean increase the chance of the interference into the governmental affairs sorry
- 51:40into the university affairs and and what we can see at the moment I mean to take a look at the
- 51:46big picture is that I mean this kind of conflicts legal and political conflicts between the European
- 51:50Union and institutions mostly the commission and the parliament but also increasingly the council
- 51:57are just getting more and more intense and in some sectors and I don't want to paint the devil
- 52:03on the wall that Hungary will lead the European Union but in some sectors the leaving the European
- 52:09Union have practically started I mean if you take a look at the education sector the
- 52:15this model changing universities that went through an institutional reform that because of which
- 52:27some active party politicians can also have their words or or ex ministers can have an important
- 52:35influence that the boards of the universities they refer to the American example that it's if
- 52:41it's normal in America why it cannot be normal in in in Hungary as well I do think that in in the
- 52:48United States the the the universities in your much more freedom than in Hungary but because of
- 52:56this debate the European Union have suspended the so-called horizon grants which are upon European
- 53:04grants that are can that universities and economic institutions can apply to and it's quite a lot
- 53:13of money so this model changing universities were excluded from that and the students were excluded
- 53:21from the Erasmus programs which means that they can practically travel freely around the European
- 53:31Union and have some educational experience Hungarian students in Portugal or in Spain or in Malta
- 53:39or anywhere else and you know it was one of the most important and most obvious advantages of
- 53:46the membership for the youth as a result of this decision I don't think it was definitely a wise
- 53:53decision and I think the government I mean the European Union could have made some other decision
- 53:58could circumvent the university still allow students to go to other European countries but because
- 54:04of that the popularity of the European Union fought quite significantly among the youngsters as well
- 54:13so I think as a as a result of this unorthodox government of policies or heterodox government
- 54:20of policies and also as a result of the European election the European reactions the
- 54:27Hungarian society that has been traditionally rather pro-European also pro-American to a certain
- 54:34extent is developing stronger and stronger anti-Western attitudes and this is what I find
- 54:43rather dangerous and rather striking again it's not something that you can only see in Hungary
- 54:49if you go to Slovakia for example that our neighbor to the north you in the public opinion
- 54:56pose you can measure even stronger anti-Western sentiments but this is a slavic country where you know
- 55:01this idea of slaving brotherhood with Russia is this eurasian ideology is is rather strong
- 55:10not and pan-slavism not at all in Hungary so there is something new going on and again maybe
- 55:17it will be a very stress parallel with the United States but what we could see in the last years
- 55:24for example is that on the fides camp in the pro-governmental camp Russia have become way more popular
- 55:31than it was before United States have become much less popular European Union have become
- 55:36much less popular and I could see some polls especially about 2016 that showed that the
- 55:41republican voter base in the U.S. have also become a bit more pro-Russian maybe as a reaction
- 55:48to that if Trump is attacked that he's pro-Russian that Russia must be something good and possible
- 55:55I mean yeah and so so what what explains the Hungarian government's affinity for Russia then
- 56:03is it that the is it that people are responding to the government or is the government responding
- 56:08to the people because Hungary has been holding up funding for Ukraine or ban
- 56:14admires Putin in a way that is unseemly to a lot of other European and central European countries
- 56:22what explains that thank you and and you just you just pointed to the most important part of the
- 56:29question I do think that that the people respond to governmental messaging and reactions and
- 56:40because because the voter base of Fides the government of party was the most critical
- 56:50towers Russia until about 2010 you can see it in the post they were highly critical in the
- 56:56Hungarian right especially after you know communism and 1956 the anti-Soviet anti-Russian sentiments
- 57:08were central in the identity so it was and and 1956 when there was a revolution against the
- 57:22Soviet rule which was brutally cracked down by the Soviet Union it was regarded to be one of the
- 57:30most important element of of and points of reference in in a Hungarian history that that proves
- 57:40that you know you have to be cautious with the Soviet Union with communism but also you have to
- 57:45be cautious with Russia you know Russia also broke down another freedom fight of of Hungary and
- 57:52it was Tsarist Russia that joined the hubs boards in in 1849 to break down another revolution
- 58:04for national identity and you know Hungarians regard themselves and especially on the right as
- 58:09freedom fighters you know fighting against oppressive forces and it in a very bizarre manner
- 58:17after Orbari turned to power in 2010 he gradually become more and more in favor of Putin while he
- 58:25he was very critical of Putin when he was in opposition before 2010 but and it I think there was
- 58:34a big leap when then Orbán undersigned the nuclear deal with Rosatom to build another nuclear
- 58:46reactors in Hungary that was without any tendering procedure and so on and so on in 2014 but
- 58:53from 2010 especially 2014 we can see that in the pro-governmental media the depiction of Russia
- 59:01have become you know very positive there are the Putin appears you know more as this kind of
- 59:10sensible and and rational worst player by everyone in the West goes mad and everyone is war
- 59:18longer in in Europe also the history has overwritten in many sense right now the dominant narrative
- 59:25in the right is that it was not the Soviet Union that cracked down the 1956 revolution but it was
- 59:31it was Ukraine as if Ukraine was enjoyed any kind of independence that is crazy yes that's such
- 59:39it's so disrespectful to the heroes of that era when Hungary was you know a light on the hill
- 59:45and the whole world was behind Hungary and was admiring Hungarian resistance exactly exactly
- 59:53you're absolutely right and you know when I mean we are after a point that when the Prime Minister
- 59:58I think it was last year or a year ago posted something on Twitter about the revolutions like
- 1:00:05he said that someone break down the the revolution and he did not mention the Soviets I mean
- 1:00:12anti-Mester sentiments had went so far in Hungary that it is also becoming a dominant narrative
- 1:00:18that communism you know it was just a western ideology because it was Marx and Engels the German
- 1:00:25guys who invented them and then Lenin as the spy of Germany and the agent of Germany brought it to
- 1:00:34Russia and Russia have become communism I mean become a victim of this deadly dangerous western
- 1:00:40ideology and it's overriding these awful it's always our fault even when the Soviet communism is still
- 1:00:48awful well so you did not defend us in in 1956 you did not interfere about that we didn't want World
- 1:00:55War 3 but yes I think that's the point that's the point but it's it's also fueling the negative
- 1:01:01sentiments towards the west so what I want to say is that that Orban had developed this very
- 1:01:07strong anti-western and in many sense you know pro-Russian pro-Chinese pro-Azeri so pro-Eastern
- 1:01:14mindset and he is very clear about that and he could change the attitudes of the voters in
- 1:01:20Hungary especially on the on the right but even more generally at the beginning of the Russian
- 1:01:28invasion against Ukraine majorate of the fittest voters blamed Russia for pretty good reasons
- 1:01:33given that they are the aggressors when the 2022 election campaign approach or when the election
- 1:01:42the approach the government was pushing the very strong pro-peace narrative quote-unquote and
- 1:01:49the message was that you know it's partially united states fought especially the Ukraine for
- 1:01:55fought of Ukraine as a result of this rhetoric the right now majorate of the fittest voters blame
- 1:02:01united states or Ukraine because of the war and Russia is only third in the list of
- 1:02:08the responsible experts and it's actually offensive to Vladimir Putin to strip him of that much
- 1:02:16autonomy it's like it's insulting to the Russians to say that they're not in control of that war
- 1:02:24yeah you're right you're right but I think Putin does not seem to be offended so this
- 1:02:30you'll take it. Orbán was the only only leader who met him in in in Beijing he was not the only one
- 1:02:37who met Putin since the beginning of the image but he was the only one who went to Beijing
- 1:02:43last year and had a very friendly discussion what not only but sea-chimping but also with with with
- 1:02:51Putin and I think there is a good reason why Ukraine and most of the western world are concerned by
- 1:02:57this pro-Russian shift and don't forget that Hungary is the last country like now that is blocking
- 1:03:02the accession of a new member into NATO that would be in the interest of all the NATO member states
- 1:03:08and this is Sweden and they are doing it for very bizarre reasons but it's hard not to see
- 1:03:16here as well that there is some kind of loyalty that that Orbán more how to say more exercises
- 1:03:24towards Russia than so towards the western alliance is such as the UN NATO. So Peter if Orbán is
- 1:03:32this semi-strong man who has shaken up the media and and given it pro-government orders and has
- 1:03:43stacked the judiciary and has allowed corruption to go unchallenged and has undermined independent
- 1:03:53institutions why do you think he's so popular among a certain cohort of western conservatives?
- 1:04:03Yes there are many reasons for that let me pick up three and it's first I think we have to give
- 1:04:14credit to Orbán in the sense that he is highly efficient and highly successful
- 1:04:23political leader he really is in power for 14 years and it has a price
- 1:04:34hunger and democratic institutions have become really drastically and you can see it in
- 1:04:39all the democracy indicators all over the world produced in you know even it's by it's the
- 1:04:47economist intelligence unit or the world bank whoever does this this this democracy in diocese
- 1:04:55we can see that there is a clear democratic decline and it's not because there is a conspressed
- 1:04:59against Hungary but because it's pretty obvious and visible but if you know if you have some kind
- 1:05:06of illiberal mindset and you want to be on government for a long time and politicians usually
- 1:05:12want to be on power for a long time then you can take a look at this model and for example in these
- 1:05:19days neighboring Austria has a party the Austrian Freedom Party which is a populist right party
- 1:05:27they very openly talk about Orbán is being their role model and they want to implement
- 1:05:33something what Orbán did even in the media sector this was Hans Christian Strach had told before
- 1:05:39as well in a in a lead video tape but it's I think it's the mindset there in France in Italy in
- 1:05:48you know Slovakia Czech Republic there are politicians in United States who think that that
- 1:05:54Hungary has this important more than I think partially it's because of the success for a second
- 1:06:00it's also because Orbán is very conscious in spreading his soft power and it's very such a
- 1:06:06thing as Hungarians of power and I have to tell it's quite remarkable because Orbán can really
- 1:06:15have become I would say he became this kind of shaman of the of the populist right in in all over
- 1:06:22the world which means that he cannot really substantially influence decision making when it comes
- 1:06:29to the EU when it comes to the NATO also when it comes to alliances with like mandate leaders like
- 1:06:36Georgia Maloney as well the prime minister of Italy who is leading a post fascist party practically
- 1:06:45but she's remarkably moderate when it comes to economic policy and foreign policy they have there
- 1:06:52is no friendship between them but I think Orbán is definitely a point of reference when it comes to
- 1:07:00you know who are the people who are describing and characterizing this new side guys and this
- 1:07:08by the fact that Orbán's predictions I think in the last few years were rather bad I have to tell
- 1:07:16it's like you know Orbán and he's not the only one I mean German, French and so on this is
- 1:07:22a makers also that Russia will never admit Ukraine it did then they told that you you know the war
- 1:07:30will be over in eight years in eight days sorry maybe it will be eight years but I think I
- 1:07:35think it was also yeah but it did not really really he said that NATO will weaken and it's just
- 1:07:43the opposite have happened he works hard on weakening NATO but still it's pretty strong alliance
- 1:07:48and the least comes on but he he is regarded to be you know this big visionary who knows what is
- 1:07:55going to unfold in in in the world and I and and there is some ideological verb behind that we have
- 1:08:03to be clear about that I I think to many extend the theoretical verb that I think is mostly lacking
- 1:08:12these days on the liberal and left-wing side I think they are doing quite a lot of intellectual
- 1:08:18work to improve you know their arguments but also to to treat this meta theories and meta-political
- 1:08:26frameworks that can help to you know you change the mindset of the of the attitude and for that I
- 1:08:34think hunger and soft power is pretty successful and then especially in the US but not only there how
- 1:08:41much it can be translated to bilateral relations I'm a bit unclear about that even in a possible
- 1:08:47uncommik Trump presidency but but let us discuss it later or or another discussion and I think
- 1:08:54the third important reason why Orbán could become so successful is that he very consciously following
- 1:09:05this kind of I think it's it's also a Trumpian media strategy that you have to be you know even if
- 1:09:14you are depicted as the buggy man even if you are depicted as the negative hero everyone talks
- 1:09:21about you and everyone is talking about Orbán this is so do we and you know when leaders in the US
- 1:09:29managers in Germany when leaders in France are just mind-reading Orbán I just meet with many
- 1:09:35diplomats these days you know who just want to figure out what's in Orbán's mind what's his
- 1:09:41strategy what's his personality and think like that you know Orbán is in the focus of attention
- 1:09:46and he did it with quite conscious provocative foreign policy strategy and even if it did not
- 1:09:54really help to find more allies for him in the Western alliance it clearly helped him to give
- 1:10:02to gain worldwide recognition in America and the UK and Australia there's a cohort of
- 1:10:10conservatives of social and cultural conservatives who feel that the progressive gains of the past 20
- 1:10:17years have been ruthless and have left them behind that there is a new orthodoxy being imposed
- 1:10:24by Hollywood and media institutions that is forcing everyone to accept a new left-wing progressive
- 1:10:35identitarian social justice worldview and there is no space for religious conservatives
- 1:10:44anymore and that the solution to this is to construct I don't know what they envision but some kind
- 1:10:52of more authoritarian strand to hear the rest of this conversation go to uncomfortable conversations
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