Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Are We Hot Again? | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/4/26

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Monday BEST BETS | Are We Hot Again? | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 5/4/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal means something on somebody for show. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Nice now, hold on, hold up and me, but it don't.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: with you with Toadstool Sports Monday, May the fourth be
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: with you. Obviously, only the original Star Wars are really
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: any good. So and Rogue one is all right? Three
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: and zero on the show yesterday, first five Onderturanto, Minnesota.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: That hit it was one nothing going into the bottom
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: of the fifth and then you Savage, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: kind of lost it and give up three more runs.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: But it's still landing on four. The full game went
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: under as well. It landed seven full game, I'm pretty
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: sure so that went under the eighth. So either way,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: you did it at one. It should have been easier
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: than it was in the first five though. Three runs
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: on the bottom of the fifth is ridiculous, Like if
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: you were on the four and it pushed because of that,
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: that's that is bullshit. But I gave it out at
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: four and a half minus won thirty, So that's what
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: I'm counting it as. Philadelphia won pretty easily. That was
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: a win. Cleveland Calves didn't look good early in the game,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: but they turned it around. It was tied at halftime,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: and then I'm like, yeah, all right, they're probably gonna
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: run away with this in the second half. They did.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, they were winning the game by probably twenty
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: twenty one points at one point I think later in
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: the game, and then they did let that lead fall
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: apart a little bit, but they still won by double digits.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: So whatever number you played that at, you won. All Right,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: We'll move on to today. I'm gonna have one baseball
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: play on a slightly shorter baseball board. I'm gonna give
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: out one playing hockey, and it's against the market. Hopefully
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: it's gonna win. That's all I gotta say. Tyson, dirty sock,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: what's up? Yes, thank you? Yeah. I don't know if
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I would have bet the Avs live like that. I mean,
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: that was I don't know what to say about that game.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: That game was ridiculous. I think the Avs are going
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: to win. I think they'll win the series. I think
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: they have a matchup edge in the series. But that
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: game was just total chaos. I would not want to
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: I would not have wanted to have any money on
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: that game. All right, Baseball starting at five forty pm
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: in this weird time cors Field game. I don't know
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: what's going on with this Mets at Colorado. Mets just
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: beat Anaheim in a series. Colorado is staying at home.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Mets are coming in from Anaheim. Colorado just lost four
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: games in a row. That just got swept by the Braves.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Normally I would say, yeah, team's gonna potentially bounce back
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: after they've lost a bunch of games like that. With Colorado,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because they're winning that game six to
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: one against Atlanta yesterday and they completely imploded and blew
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: the game. So the way that they lost that game
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: does worry me a little bit. Colorado's bullpen is completely
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: falling off. They're at eighteenth now in bullpen. We're gonna
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: have to start, probably considering them to be a pretty
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: bad bullpen, which wasn't the case earlier in the season.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: But I know one game is skewing those numbers right now,
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: but it's not looking good. Mets are the better bullpen.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: They're at ninth in bullpen whip. Their ERA is fine.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Usage yesterday Mets used two relief pitchers, Colorado used three.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: We're gonna give the Mets the bullpen edge. The Mets
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: do not have the hitting edges. They're still last in hitting,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: which again, at some point I expect that to not
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: be the case. Colorado has been the better offensive team.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: They're at tenth right now, and they are better at home.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: This game is going to be difficult to handicap, though,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: because we also don't have a starting pitcher announced for
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: the Mets. I don't believe they've announced it no, So
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: unless undecided is the guy's name, we don't know who's
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Mets. Uh Tomoyuki Sugano's pitching for the Rockies.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: He's been alright two point eight four ERA, one point
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: one to seven WHIP. He's not as good in coursefield
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: four point oh two ERA. Obviously, it's not easy to
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: pitch at coursefield. He's been decent over the course of
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: the season. Nothing really horrible here. Twenty one strikeouts, nine walks,
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: not a great ratio, but it's thirty one to two
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: thirds innings. He doesn't strike a lot of guys out.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: He's only allowed twenty eight hits. Probably a little bit
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: too home run conducive though for a guy that you
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: really want to back in course field. Five home runs
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: a lot, but his fly ball rate is not that
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: extreme right now. Numbers against the Mets. They've hit him
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: pretty well, but it's only sixteen at bats that they
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: have against him. Three to three strike at walk ratio
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: semion as a home runoff and three seventy five batting
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: average allowed one ninety nine ops. It's such a small
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: sample size. There's not a whole lot you can put
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: into that. This game is basically unhandicappable, though. The Mets
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: are like minus one forty, even though we don't even
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: know who their starting pitcher is gonna be. I have
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: no clue, dude. The totals at ten ten and a half.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Money looks like it's coming in towards Colorado. It kind
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: of makes sense, like, why should the Mets be favored
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: on the road like this when we don't even know
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: who their starter is gonna be. And we're talking about
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: the Mets here, they probably don't deserve to be a
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: favorite like this on the road. Man. So I'm not
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: really gonna disagree with that sentiment, but I can't do
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: anything with this if we don't even know what the
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: matchup is. You know, the money seems to be indicating
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: on the over. You know, if you wanted to play
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: the over, you get at least one bad. You don't
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: know what the Mets are even doing with their pitching.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: It's still you know, it's a game that I think
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: you just pass on. I mean, it's just difficult to
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: figure it out. Red Sox are at Detroit. Detroit played
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: the night game last night. They are staying at home.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: Though a lot of times I look to fade the
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: team that played at night because they have a quick turnaround,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: but Detroit is staying at home. They've won two games
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: in a row. They beat Texas last night to win
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: that series. Red Sox are coming in off an ugly
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: loss to Houston. Red Sox. This is just fucking ridiculous. Man.
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: Their entire starting rotation is injured. Ronyr Suarez went out
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: of the game. I don't know I was that yesterday's game.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: I think it might have been. He left the game
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: early with hamstring tightness, so it looks like another starter
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: injured for the Red Sox. They had to use a
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: bunch of relief pitchers because of that, so their bullpen
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: has burned out. The game went into extra innings. The
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Red Sox should have won this game by the way.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: They lost in extra innings with the Red Sox had
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: the worst hit with runners of scoring position than I've
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: ever seen. Yeah, they got out hit by one, but
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox had so many opportunities to score in
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: that game. They're hitting with runners of scoring position is
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: unbelievably bad, And you would have to think that that's
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: just gonna turn around because it's sort of unlucky. You're
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: getting unlucky in a way. But also, like I talked
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: about yesterday, with pitching with guys on base, maybe there's
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: a mental thing where these guys just can't hit with
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: the runners on base. But you would think that with
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: guys on base, you're gonna get a little bit looser,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: thinking like, yeah, like the pressures on the pitcher, let's hit.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean, I don't know what the
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: fuck's going on. The Red Sox do have the better bullpen,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: but they used a lot of relief pitchers. Like I said,
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: both of these teams actually did, though. The Red Sox
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: basically emptied out their bullpen yesterday. They had a couple
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: of guys not come into the game, but their better
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: relievers pretty much got used. Detroit used most of their
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: bullpen too, though, so both teams use about six relief
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, which kind of balances it out. The Red
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: Sox or eighth in bullpen whip Detroit is way lower
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: than that twenty first. Offensively, yeah, Detroit's the better offensive team.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: They got there at sixth inn ops. Red Sox are
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: third to last. Still really great. Peyton Toley is going
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: to be pitching for the Red Sox. We have a
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: battle of lefties in this game. Totally basically has one
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: good start in one not so good start so far
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: three point three eighty RA one point zero three whip.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: His one not so good start was on the road, though,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: and he's gonna have to make a start on the
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: road here against a good offense. You could argue he's
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: in a bit of a letdown spot though, because his
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: first start was this highly emotional, really good outing at
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Fenway against the Yankees. He was not as good against Toronto.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: He's got fifteen strikeouts, five walks on the season. That's
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: not awful. Six hits a lot in ten and two
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: thirds innings. So even with that, if he started against Toronto,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: his overall numbers is still not that bad. He's gotten
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: almost no run support. What else is new? And of
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: course he is gonna be unfamiliar to Detroit. I believe.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Actually Detroit has three hitters will faced him before. They're
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: one for three with a single from Perez, one strikeout,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: no walks, not a whole lot you can really draw
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: from any of that. But yes, he's unfamiliar to Detroit,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: which might be a little bit of an advantage having
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity against these hitters. But Detroit obviously has tark
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Schoo ball pitching two point seventy RA point nine to
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: five WHIP. He's been a little bit worse at home
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: three point five to five ERA at home, but he's
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: one of the best pitchers in baseball. We don't really
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: need to overthink this. He's got a forty five to
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: six strikeout walk ratio and thirty five hits allowed forty
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: three and a third innings. These are all really good numbers. Obviously,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: he's allowed four on runs in a couple of different starts.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: He pitched against the Red Sox not that long ago
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: and dominated in that performance ten strikeouts and six innings
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: one run, allowed, four hits, two walks. That was at Fenway.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Red Sox are pretty good. In
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: sixty nine at bats, twenty strikeouts, three walks, two seventeen
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: batting average allowed four to ninety six ops. I'm not gonna,
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: you know, come into this game and fade schoolable. I'm
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: just not gonna do it. Uh, sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of the cash on Detroit, they're about
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: minus two twenty. I mean, you pretty much know you're
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: paying attacks for schoolble though, So the line is probably
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: too big, especially because it's a low total of seven.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Given the state of the bullpens though, and Detroit's bullpen
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: not even being good, I would not want to include
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: the bullpens in a potential under here. The money looks like,
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know, seventy five percent of tickets and cash
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: on the under here, and yeah, sixty nine percent of
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on Detroit. I'm
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: gonna lean first five under here. I think both starting
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: pitchers could pitch well here. You're probably looking at a
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: three and a half there. But it's not gonna make
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: my hard or anything. This next game will be my
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: one at baseball play. This is Philadelphia at Miami. We
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: won with Philadelphia yesterday and we're gonna zigzag that and
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: take Miami at plus one hundred today. I like this.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is two and one in the series right now.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: This is the other wrap around series besides Baltimore, New York.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: I was like, wait, which other one was the wrap around?
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: The wrap around means the series goes from Friday into Monday.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: This is the other one. Philadelphia and Miami. They've played
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: throughout the weekend. Philadelphia got the easy win yesterday, but
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: this game I don't think is gonna be as easy
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: for them. And while I said yes yesterday, like in
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: my handicapped yesterday, I said Philadelphia is better than the
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: record looks. Miami is probably not as good as the
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: record looks. All of that is true, but we're looking
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: at this particular situation. Now, Philadelphia did only use two
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. Miami used four. So yes, the bullpen
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: rest edge is not really in favor of Miami, but
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: they're the better bullpen. There's sixth in WHIP right now.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: The ERA is pretty good. Philadelphia's bullpen is in the
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: bottom third era in the fours, they just have not
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: been as good of a bullpen. So I like the
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Marlins pitching better throughout this game. We're gonna talk about
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching in a minute. Miami has been the
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: better offense as well. They're twelfth in offense. Philly's still
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh. So even though I think Philadelphia probably does
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: have the better offense based on who they have in
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: their lineup, that hasn't been the case so far. And
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: we're gonna fade Aaron Nola here, who he's been struggling man,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: trying to come back from the injuries that he's had.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Last year, he didn't look very good. He started pitching
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: well at the end of the season last year. This
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: season he hasn't been good. Six point zero three RA,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: one point five to six WHIP. He's been particularly bad
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: on the road six point three to three roadyra that's
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: not good. Thirty five strikeouts in thirty one to the
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: third innings, that is good. I mean, that's an indicator
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: that his strikeout stuff is back. Thirteen walks is a
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: little bit high. But he's also been really hit able
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: thirty six hits. He's allowed six home runs and a
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: lot of those have come recently. And while yes, his
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: last three starts he faced the Cubs twice and the Braves,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: and obviously that's not easy. The Marlins are gonna be
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: a step down from that, but he was bad in
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: those starts. He only made it to the five inning
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: mark once. In those three starts. He allowed eleven runs
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: over the last two along with three home runs. He's
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: not a good forum right now. Man. He had a
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: lot of walks to multiple walks in all those outings,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: so he's not pitching well. And to make matters worse,
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: Miami actually has not hit him too badly. I know
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: it's a small sample of twenty nine at bats, but
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: three seventy nine batting average allowed twelve twenty eight ops
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: nine to one strike out walk ratio is good. But
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: they've hit him well. Three of their hitters have home
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: runs off him. So I think we could definitely fade
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: Nola here and we're gonna put our money on Jansen
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: yunk junk. He has not been junk. He's actually pitched
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: pretty well three ERA this year one point zero six WHIP.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit better at home as well,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: where he is today two point eight six home ERA.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: He's allowed no runs in his last two outings against
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: a Saint Louis team it's been hitting pretty hot, and
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers he went eleven inn He's allowed four hits
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: in those outings, had six strikeouts, two walks, and allowed
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: no runs. That's pretty impressive. Now he's not a strikeout pitcher.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: He has twenty one strikeouts in thirty three innings, eight walks,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: twenty seven hits allowed. He's not putting a lot of
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: guys on base man and at the very least Miami
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: has been in basically every game that he's pitched. A
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: couple of the games he just didn't did not get
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: any run support. But he's allowed four or fewer earned
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: runs in every outing on the season. So when you're
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: doing that, you're at least gonna have a chance to
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: win the game. And his numbers gets Filly, You're pretty
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: good in a small sample though, twenty at bats they
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: only have four hits off him, no extra base hits,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: five strikeouts, one walk. It's two hundred batting average obviously,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: and four thirty eight ops. We're gonna roll with it.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: We'll go with Miami here to bounce back and even
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: the series. We're looking at fifty two percent of tickets
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: and eighty nine percent of the cash on Miami as
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: the small dog here, with phillyat about minus one fifteen
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: or so, So the money seems to be indicating towards
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Miami here. That's what we're doing. I know I'm looking
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: at wager talk here because pregame is never gonna fix
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: their shit. It's been fucked for like a week. They
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: don't have their percentages coming in. But whatever, you know,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: the totals at eight and a half in this game,
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I don't really have much to say about that. It
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: looks like some market indicators towards the over in that game.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good feel for that. But Miami
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: is gonna be my one baseball play. Josh, what's up?
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: What did I just do? Oh? Top? What's up?
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: Man?
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Hey? David? What's going on man. Good morning, libertarian joke here,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: what's going on? How are you? Good morning to you.
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: We saw you crashing out, so we came in for
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: a second to say hi.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: I wanted to make sure you were okay.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: Is everything okay? Oh that's not what we like to hear.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: It's been rough.
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: Well, it's been rough.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Do we have that drop? We might? I'd have to
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: switch it to the Tower Gang one to find it.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: That's I don't know what we do have.
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: We have this one, but that's not that's not applicable
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: right now.
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: Is it?
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: No?
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: No, not quite based on death Squad everybody.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: Sorry, sorry to crash your show, Toad. Are you ready
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: for Bohemian Grove? Can we have your commitment?
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: No, because I don't know it might it might conflict
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: with my mother's birthday thing.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: Your mother she's invited as fuck? Yeah, bring her to Florida.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think she's gonna agree to that.
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: No, it would be good you play some classic Ukuleles
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: covers and and you know she can have a proud moment.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, she love that.
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: So it's a definite.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's all I'm singing Kyle Hitler with own Benjamin.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: It's just not the same without you.
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: Toad. You're a You're a You're an important part of
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: this event.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: And I mean, yeah, look you were on the Listen.
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: I'm not doing this whole selling thing again. Uh. If
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: your mom has a birthday, she's got a birthday, that's right.
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: But you'll have more if Toad's gonna come.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: I hope she goes to go he's gonna.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: I have Toad down here.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Look at this. We even wrote your name down. She's seventy. Man,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: there might not be them anymore.
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: Honestly, you should have her come out to Brohemian Grove.
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: You'd have a great time.
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: We have Emmett, we have yeah, Toad and Nancy.
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: I don't I don't think you should take her to
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: the villages. We just had a pastor in the villages
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: get arrested for running big running a swingers club out
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: of his church.
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: Do you have a joke about bigamy?
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: That sounds about right? Little little of me? Maybe little
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: of me?
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: All right, we gotta go, Toad, I have we have
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: another We have a guest in the other room.
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: Who we actually made weight because we wanted to say
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: hi to you.
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: Thought you were trying to run a professional show over here.
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: No, oh no, we're doing dangerous?
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Is that happening at some point?
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: Well, yeah, we will do dangerous if you show up.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Is it going to be an actual show that's going
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: to start?
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: Those should didn't even think about that.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's it's got all the marketing there
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: and all the aesthetics and and everything is ready to go.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: It should.
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: But I spent the last weekend instead of doing things
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: like what I did, like how cool that is?
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: Made these little magnetic base a bunch of magnetic base plates. Yeah,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: do you have one of these mics?
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: Toad?
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: No, you have MV seven right.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all right, all.
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: Right, if you get a seven B, I'll print you one,
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: all right.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: So we gotta go. We gotta show Grove. We'll get
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: a green toad on it, alrighty go dirt dirty sock? Yes,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: thanks guys.
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: Man, we gotta press three buttons to leave this.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm trying to be professional here. Man. Oh my god,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Nephelin desk squad. Everybody go check out their show, but
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: not the one right now? Stay with me, all right?
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: Uh so, yes, nice surprise, dude. I never have my
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: headphones on because I just want to feel unencumbered, so
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I didn't realize they were there. I'm like, why is
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: my screen not being shared? What's going on here? Hold
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: on a second, now, I gonna get the screen share
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: back going on? All right? Yeah, all right, there we go.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: We're back. So, yes, Miami is my play. If if
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: people miss that, Toronto at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay, Uh,
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: this show is probably still gonna be shorter than than
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: most of my shows, hopefully, well not most of them,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: but most of the baseball ones. Tampa Bay swept San
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Francisco over the weekend, and they're staying at home. But
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: I don't like playing on teams that are coming off
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: of sweep necessarily. However, they're not having to travel. They're
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: staying at home. They're playing a divisional series, so maybe
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay will be up for this. Toronto is coming
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: in from Minnesota, so they do have to travel. They
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: just split the series with Minnesota. Bullpen usage. I don't
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: love Toronto's bullpen. They used four relief pitchers yesterday, Tampa
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: Bay used three. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been pitching better
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: recently after a really bad start. They're up to fifteenth
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: in bullpen whips, so they're in the middle of the
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: pack now, though the ERA remains questionable. Toronto's slightly above
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: them at thirteenth. Not so sure that I like Toronto's
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: will been better than Tampa's right now, though both offenses
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: are running eighteenth and nineteenth, with Toronto slightly above Tampa Bay.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Probably that is accurate that Toronto's a little bit better
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: offensively than Tampa is. Eric Lauer is pitching for Toronto,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: and while he had a really good season last year,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: this season has not been good. He's got a six
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: ERA exactly the same home and away, by the way,
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: and a one point five to two whip. Those are
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: bad numbers. He's struggling, dude. He's coming off along one
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: run to the Red Sox, but they took him out
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: in the fifth inning. I don't know why really, because
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: his pitch count wasn't high. I don't know if he
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: got injured. I mean that might be concerning. No clue
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: what's going on there. He's got twenty strikeouts, thirteen walks
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: in twenty seven innings this year and twenty eight hits allowed.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are pretty bad. His strikeout rate is down.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: That means that there's something going on with his pitches,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: like his stuff is just not there. Too many walks,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: slightly too many hits as well. Seven home runs allowed
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: as pretty bad as well. I don't think we could
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: really trust lour right now. His numbers against Tampa Bay
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: are also not good. In twenty seven at bats, small sample,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: but four to two strikeout walk ratio, three point thirty
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: three batting average allowed, eleven to twenty ops. You could
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: definitely fade him in this game. Nick Mark team As
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Tampa Bay. He's had the much better
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: season so far. One point seven whip or excuse me,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: one point seven ERA one whip one point seven whip
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: would not be good. He's been good at home one
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: point four to two wrote at one point four to
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: home ERA, excuse me. Tampa Bay has won five of
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: his six starts so far. He's allowed two or fewer
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: runs in every single outing. Twenty four to nine strike
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio is not great, but really it's the
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is just low, which you know, I
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: like guys that strike guys out. He doesn't really do that.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: He allows way too many fly balls too. But he's
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: not pitching at Cincinnati anymore where fly balls fly out
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: of the ballpark. He's not allowed twenty eight hits and
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: thirty seven innings, so the strike out rate is low,
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: but he's not putting a lot of guys on base,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: so that's good against what are you talking about Toronto here?
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Numbers are not that good against Toronto and fifty six
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: at bats eight to five, strike out walk ratio two
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: eighty six batting average allowed eight to forty four. I
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: think Martinez is probably still the more trustworthy picture. I
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: think I will lean to Tampa Bay here they don't
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: have to travel. I think Martinez is more trustworthy than
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Law right now because matchup numbers are also somewhat better. Still,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty is the price on that. That's the
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: way I would lean, But that's not that strong of
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: an opinion for me. Money seems to be sort of
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: indicating on the over with the total at eight, I mean,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: I could see the argument for it because the bullpens
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: might get shaken up a little bit because the bullpens
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: are not that good and both starting pitchers don't have
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: great matchup numbers. So I don't really disagree with the
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: over there. Over eight, we have ninety one percent of
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on the under,
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: So that would be an indicator towards the over. And yes,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent of tickets ninety four percent of the
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: cash on Tampa Bay. Do with that information what you want,
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: but the market indicators are towards the over. I think
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: I misspoked there, So yes, in that game are Tampa
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Bay and over, but I don't really have a huge
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: opinion there. Baltimore at the Yankees. The Yankees trying to
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: sweep Baltimore over a four game series. The Yankees have
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: won three games in the series already. They won every
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: game easily. But this game, as you're gonna see, this
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: matchup is not helpful to Baltimore either. The Yankees do
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: play Texas tomorrow. I don't really know that's gonna be
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: a look ahead or not. But yes, when you've beaten
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: a team three games in a row, you might overlook
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: them a little bit. But again, the pitching matchup is
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: just not favorable to Baltimore. Here. Baltimore used a bunch
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: of relief pitchers. These five relief pitchers yesterday, the Yankees
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: use three Yankees bullpen has been alright, They're eleventh, right
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: down whip Baltimore's has fallen off. They're at seventeenth and
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: their era is in the mid forth. This Baltimore bullpen
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: is starting to not pitch well, So Yankees have a
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. Yankees also have the offensive edge. They're
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: fourth in offense. Baltimore is all the way down at seventeen. Now,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: that's not good and starting pitching wise. Shane Boss pitching
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: for the Orioles. Four point five era is fine, but
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: one point five whip is not very good. He's got
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: the same era home and away, so home roads what's
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: don't matter for him right now. But you know, I
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: mean overall, his numbers are not horrible, but he is
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: putting too many guys on base. He's got twenty nine
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and thirty four innings. You'd expect a few more
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: strikeouts from him. He usually is a pretty good strikeout guy.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Eleven walks is too many walks, forty hits is bad,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: and thirty four innings, so yeah, he is putting too
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: many guys on base. But he hasn't had any starts,
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: so he's gotten completely destroyed. Like he's allowed three four
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: earned runs in a bunch of his outings, which, like
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: I said, I mean, when you do that, you're at
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: least keeping your team in the game. But if he
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: does that, I don't think it's gonna be good enough
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: against Schlittler today, and his numbers against the Yankees suggest
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: that he's probably not even gonna do that well. Here,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: forty six at bats against, he's allowed of ridiculous seven
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: home runs to them. More than half of the batters
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: in the Yankees lineup that defaced him have homered off him.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Eight strikeouts, nine walks, three seventy batting average, thirteen to
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: twenty one ops allowed. These are really really ugly numbers, man,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: So there's no way you could trust Boz here. Schlitzler
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Yankees one point five to one
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: erazero point seven to four whip. He's been a little
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: bit worse at home, but still a two point four
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: to five ERA that's not bad. And we know it's
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: a hit or friendly ballpark in the Bronx. His overall
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: numbers are ridiculous. Like, you know, he's gonna be in
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: the Cy Young conversation. I mean, I think he probably
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: already is forty nine to six strikeout walk ratio, twenty
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: five hits allowed, forty one to two thirds innings pitched.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: So all those numbers across the board are very good,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean, unless he completely like falls off,
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: he will be in the Cy Young conversation. Yankees have
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: won six out of seven of his outings members against
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Baltimore are very good, and twenty nine at bats not
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: a big sample, but twelve strikeouts, two walks, one thirty
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: eight to average, allowed five h four ohps. I guess
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: you could make one argument that because Baltimore hadn't seen
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: him before when they faced him the first time, that
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: gave him a little bit of an extra advantage. But
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: obviously his numbers across the bord are just really really good,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: So I don't see how you could expect him to
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: do poorly here. He hasn't seen Baltimore this year or
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: they haven't seen him this year. The money seems to
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: be fading the Yankees ninety five percent of tickets, eighty
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: seven percent of the cash on them, and I think
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: that's primarily because they're a very heavy, heavy favorite at
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: minus two thirty. Like you know that you're paying a tax.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: There you go, Josh, the tax again. There is a
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Yankee tax as well, probably a Schlitzler tax at this point,
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: that's it's fascism, man. Yeah, I mean you're probably paying
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit too much on the money line for
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: the Yankees if you do want that. But I see
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: no possible a way you can play Baltimore here. You
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: just can't do it. The Yankees have the edge across
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: the board in this game. Maybe the motivational edge is
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: on the Baltimore side, but other than that, yeah, there's
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: no way that you could do it. I think I
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: would probably lean to the Yankees just laying the run
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: line or something here. Or I guess you could go
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: Yankees over their team total if you want to. The
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: total is not that high at eight and a half
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: for the full game, but if you want the Yankees
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: to go over their team total, you probably need five
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: runs out of them, maybe more. They could definitely do
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: it against Baltimore's very questionable pitching. Though sixty seven percent
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: of tickets is sixty three percent of the cash on
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: the under some money seems to be indicating towards the
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: over here. Again, I would not agree that. I don't
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: think Baltimore is gonna be able to put up that
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: many runs here, you know what I mean. So Yankees
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: over their team total does make some sense instead of
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: laying the Yankees price, but I think I still probably
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: would lean the Yankees' run line as well in that game.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Those two ways would probably be the preferred way playing
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: that game. But you don't want to force yourself to
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: have to play a specific game, you know what I mean.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: So even though the matchup is very in favor of
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, a lot of that's built into the line
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: and possibly too much. Cincinnati at the Cubs. Interesting divisional series.
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: The Cubs are top the division now. I think they
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: are the best team in the division. I think Milwaukee
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: is the second best. I do not buy Saint Louis
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: or Cincinnati. Every team in this division is above five hundred.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Cubs are on a five game win streak. They just
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: swept Arizona. But I don't think they're gonna overlook Cincinnati
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: because Cincinnati is right behind them. But again, I think
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is a bit fraudulent because they have a lot
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: of close wins so far this year. Cincinnati is going
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: to get up for this game, but the Cubs are
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: staying at home. Cincinnati is coming in from Pittsburgh, which
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: isn't too bad, but they also got swept in the
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh series. Cincinnati could not hit it at all yes esterday,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: so they lost what was a good start I think
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: from Chase Burns yesterday, they still couldn't win. Brax and
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Ashcraft I think was back to his regular self, his
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: better self, so my lean on the under was correct
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: in that game yesterday. Cincinnati could bounce back possibly here,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: but I also don't think they're as good as their
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: record looks, so you know, there are a lot of
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: things to consider in this game. Cincinnati. I also don't
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: like what their bullpen has been doing recently. Although they
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: only used one relief pitcher yesterday, so their bullpen is rested.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: The Cubs used three relief pitchers yesterday. Cubs do have
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen though their fifth and bullpen whip. Their
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: ERA is pretty solid as well, and while Cincinnati said
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen eer Ray all along, their ERA is
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: above four now and their WHIP is over one and
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: a half, and they're now second, they're the second worst
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: bullpen now all of a sudden in whip. And while
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're actually the second worst bullpen they're
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: not a very good bullpen man, So yes, the Cubs
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. Cubs have the better offense as well.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: They're at fifth in offense right now based on ops,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's twenty fourth, So yeah, the Cubs do have a
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: lot of matchup edges here. Cincinnati has Chase Petty starting,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: and I believe he has pitched a little bit. Yeah,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: so he's really young. He's twenty three. He made his
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: major league debut last year. His name sounds like he
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: should be a NASCAR driver, man, Chase Petty. He did
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: not pitch well last year. He made two starts in
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: one relief appearance, and he had a nineteen point five
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: ERA and three point six to seven whip really really bad.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: But he only pitched six innings, so you know, his
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: sample size was very limited in the majors last year.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: But maybe they brought him up too early. He was
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: obviously not ready. I mean, he had fourteen hits allout
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: on top of eight walks allowed in six innings. That's unbelievable.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: I don't even know how that's even possible. And he
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: did strike out seven, so he could strike guys out. Now,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: I looked at what he's doing in the minors, and
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: it's really not that impressive. Like his era this year
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: in the miners is I think over four, and his
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: whip is like somewhere around one point three. Like I
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: don't know, the walk numbers a little bit high. I'm
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: looking at his triple A numbers this year and I'm like, yeah,
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, that combined with what he did
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: in the majors last year, I don't trust it now.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: I looked at his you know, like scouting his pitch mix.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: He's like a mid to upper nineties fastball thrower. He
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: throws like a four steamer. I think he throws two seamers, slider,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: curveball like kind of the typical mix there. And you know,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: I guess he induces ground balls with the two seamer
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: and whatever. I feel like that's a fairly common thing.
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I trust him well enough though.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Now he's gonna face a Cubs team that hasn't seen
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: him before. So the Cubs might have a little bit
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: of an offensive disadvantage because they haven't seen his stuff before,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: so they don't know what to expect. But Petty just
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: hasn't been good enough for me to trust him. Maybe
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: that's being petty, h maybe that's very petty of me.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: But Edward Cabrera is pitching for the Cubs. He's been
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty well. He is obviously the more I don't know,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: he's the pitcher with the way more solidified track record.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: He's the more established pitcher, quite obviously three point zero
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: six ERA, one point one to nine WI. This year,
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: he's been a little bit worse than Regley at three
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: point three eighty RA at home. Here, he's allowed exactly
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: three runs in his last four outings. The Cubs have
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: won all but one of his starts so far. He's
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: got twenty nine strikeouts at thirty five and a third innings,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: which is a little bit low for his like his
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is usually pretty high, and that's a little
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: bit low, so that's somewhat concerning. Twelve walks is too high.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: Only thirty hits allowed though in thirty five and a
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: third innings, so he's not allowing a lot of hits,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: which is good, not along a lot of runs either.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: He's allowed no more than three or runs in any
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: outing against the Cincinnati Reds. He does not have good
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: numbers though, twenty nine at bats not a big sample
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: ten strikeouts, one walk, three forty five, batting average allowed,
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: one thousand and ninety one ohps. So I don't know
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: if I could trust Cabrera in this outing. You know,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers don't look that good. I don't know
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: what we're gonna get out of Petty. Of course, it
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: is possible both pitchers do well too. This is one
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: of those types of matchups that I just, you know,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: I can't figure it out, because both pitchers have the
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: potential to do well. Both pictures have the potential to
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: do really bad. The total is eleven and a half,
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: which means the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, and
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: you know, with one questionable bull end with Cincinnati Cabrera,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: with bad matchup numbers, Petty just hasn't really shown anything
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: good so far. I probably wouldn't disagree with this game.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Being an over eleven and a half is a bit crazy,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: but again, that's because the wind is blowing out sixty
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: five percent of tickets on the under ninety three percent
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: than the cash on the over, so the money seems
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: to be indicating towards the over. I'll slightly agree with it.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: And then as far as the side. Cubs are probably
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: too heavy of a favorite at minus two hundred. Yes,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: they're the way better team, There's no question about that.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: And maybe the public kind of comes in and looks
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: at this and thinks that line is a little bit
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: high given that both teams have good records. But I
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: don't know, because it looks like eighty eight percent of
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: the tickets and eighty seven percent of the cash on
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: the Cubs, so the money seems to be kind of
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: indicating against them. Yeah. I don't know, man, I don't
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: have a good feel for the side at all here.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: So you know, Cabrera, bad matchup numbers, and Petty with
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: you know, no history and the unfamiliarity. I guess you
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: could make the argument to take a shot with Cincinnati
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: on the run line or something to hear, but they
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: do not have the bullpen edge, so maybe you could
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: do it in the first five innings or something like that.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: I think my preferred approach in that game is to
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: go over. But yeah, I mean that's getting a little
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: bit question as well. Really high total there, Hindium, what's up? Yeah?
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Loser cast is every Tuesday night, correct Cleveland at Kansas City.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is returning on from a road trip. So
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: you know, I like to fade teams returning on from
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: road trips. So I first started looking at this and
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking, yeah, we might want to fade KC. Here.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: They're returning on from the road. They went to the
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: Pacific Coast, they won the road trip, they swept Seattle,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: which is a pretty big sweep of Seattle. Not a
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: bad team, dude, They're better than they look right now.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: So a lot of things indicate against Kansas City as
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: far as the situation is concerned, they could be in
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot. Plus I talk about them when a
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: team returns home, especially when they're crossing time zones and
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: whatever they have to get back to home life, it
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: could be a big distraction. Now maybe it'll be a
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: little bit less of a distraction because they're playing a
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: divisional series here against a team that's tied atop the
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: division Cleveland and Kansas City is not that far behind them,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: So there is the argument the both teams do show
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: up for this. Cleveland is coming in from Sacramento, so
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: they're traveling across time zones two though they lost to
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: the A's yesterday. Parker Messik, Yeah, Cleveland's lost two games
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: in a row with him on the mound. Now, he
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: wasn't horrible, but he wasn't good enough in that game
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: yesterday in a in a difficult pitching environment. Now Cleveland
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: is having to travel, you know, so that kind of
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: makes the advantage of Cleveland would have a little bit less. Plus, well,
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: if they were if they were starting a road trip,
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: I would actually like them a little bit more because
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: they'd be going just from Cleveland and Kansas City, and
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: usually you're focused in that case when you're coming in
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: from Sacramento. I don't like that as much. Plus, they
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: lost a three game win streak yesterday. I don't love that.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: Although they should get up for a game against Kansas City,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: you would think, uh so, you know, I still think
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is in a more advantageous spot than Kansas City is,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: or I guess a less disadvantageous spot. Cleveland with a bullpen.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: These two relief pitchers yesterday. Kansas City used two as well.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Cleveland their bullpen has been a bit better than Kansas City's.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: They're at fourteenth in whip, but their era is in
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: the mid fours, which is not very good. Kansas City's bullpen.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: E RA is still over five, which is really bad,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: and their whip is still in one and a half.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: They're twenty fifth in whip, so still a very untrustworthy
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Kansas City bullpen. Both offenses are middle of the pack,
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: tied right now in ops at fifteenth. You know, I
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: don't think either offense is that good, So I agree
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: with that. Tanner Biby is pitching for for Cleveland here.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: Four point oh eighty RA is pretty decent, I guess,
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: but one point four to four whip is not good.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: He's pending too many guys on base. He's been really
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: bad on the road seven point nine Roady Ray, so
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: you do want to look to fade him on the road.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: That's where he is now. So that kind of already
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: that's kind of negating because you know, I first looked
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: at this and I'm like, yeah, Kansas City's in a
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: fade spot here. Let's look at Cleveland. And then I
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: start looking at this and I'm like, I don't want
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: Cleveland either, man, Biby. I mean, he is pitching better
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: in his last three outings, though he's allowed three earned
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: runs across that span of seventeen innings, So that's not
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: that bad. Multiple walks in all those outings, though it
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: is a little bit concerning. His strikeout rate is a
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: little low. I think for what you'd expect from him,
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: maybe two years ago might have been a little bit
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: of an outlier from him though. Thirty two strikeouts at
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: thirty five and a third innings still not bad, though
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: fourteen walks that's too high. Thirty seven hits a lot
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: is not great either. So, yes, he is putting too
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: many guys on base. He's walking too many guys against
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Kansas City. Come on, man, I hate dude. ESPN needs
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: to just fix this shit. They need to automate. They
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: need to automatically switch the batter versus pitcher stats over
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: help the handicappers out. Man. They do it once the
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: series starts, but they don't do it in a advance
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: of the series. It's ridiculous. One hundred and fourteen at
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: bats there so a lot of experience against Kansas City,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: two twenty eight to average a lot, seven thirty one ops.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Those are those are decent numbers. Twenty two strikeout, twelve
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: walks though, so he's walked too many guys, but generally
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: he pitches okay against Kansas City, so that's at least
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: not bad. Michael Walker is pitching for Kansas City though,
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: and he's not really a guy that I really necessarily
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: want to fade. Uh three point one three ERA one
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: point one to three whip. He's pitching well. He's been
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: worse at home though, four point zero five home ERA,
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: so both starting pitchers their home road splits are going
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: against them in this game. Overall, he's been pretty good,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: though he's been a little bit worse recently. But do
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: you give him a pass for that? Because his last
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: two outings are kind of bad. One of them was
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: in the A's stadium, which is not easy to pitch in.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, man, he's walked multiple guys in
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: four of his last five outings. That's a little bit concerning.
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: The walk number just in general is too high. Thirty
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: three strikeouts and thirty seven to third innings. He's not
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: really known as a strikeout pitcher. Fourteen walks is too
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: high though, but he's also only allowed twenty eight hits,
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: so you know that's you know, he's he's not along
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: a lot of hits, let's put it that way, but
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: he's allowing too many walks because he's Michael Walk going
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: up against Cleveland here. I mean, they're not the greatest offense.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: His numbers are pretty good against them in one hundred
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: and one at bats, very similar to Biby's numbers really
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: twenty one to twelve strikeout walk ratio to eighteen average,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: six eighteen ops allowed. So both thirty pitchers do have
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: decent matchup numbers here. So let's say, I don't know,
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: what the hell do we do with this game. I
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: don't know. We have seventy five percent of tickets on
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: the under, sixty eight percent of the cash on the over.
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be indicated towards the over. The
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: totals at nine, and while both pitchers don't have good
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: home road splits for this based on their matchup numbers,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I kind of slightly lean under here.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: The total seems too high to me at nine. But
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: of course you never really want to fade what the
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: odds makers are telling you. And the odds makers are
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: telling you they think this is gonna be a higher
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: scoring game, but some of that is that the bullpens
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: are pretty bad. So if you're gonna go under, I
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: think a first five inning under makes way more sense.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: That might be the way I would lean in this game.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: And I still do lean to Cleveland here just because
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: you know, a lot of the matchup numbers are fairly
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: similar on both sides. I think Cleveland probably does have
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. Like I said, the situation favors Cleveland,
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: and I don't think there's a huge pitching advantage one
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: way or the other. Fifty percent of tickets on Kansas City, Yeah,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: on Kansas City, sixty six percent of the cash on Cleveland.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's still the preferred way to do this is
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: to grab Cleveland as the underdog. Kansas City is still
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: in a pretty bad situation coming into that game. So yeah,
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: probably the lean would be Cleveland would probably maybe my
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: strongest opinion there. But yeah, whatever, Why wouldn't I be
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: on a show that I'm one of the hosts on.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, yeah, I don't like Dave.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I haven't blocked he's He's a fucking idiot on Twitter,
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: So fuck that guy. I mean, I've been on his
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: show before. Whatever, I mean, I'll be on the show.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: I don't care. We'll see what happens. I mean, it's
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: my show. It's not his I don't have total control
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: over who the guests are late and pretty much does that.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: But like half of the guests he's gonna have on
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: the show, I have blocked. So I've blocked people after
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: they've been on the show as well, so I have
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: everybody blocked. Everybody's a fucking asshole. So yes, walk a
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: walk are correct, all right? Milwaukee at Saint Louis. This
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: is a Fox Sports one game. It's the only game
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: that's not just an MLBtv game, except the late game
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: is an ESPN limited game as well, so you can
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: have ESPN or Disney plus whatever the fucking watch that
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: last game. Everything else you need MLBtv for. But of
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: course you can find streams for all these games anyway.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee at Saint Louis. Saint Louis, I kind of think
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: they're in a bad spot here. They just lost a
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: six game win streak, and you know, I talk about
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: when a team loses a win streak a lot of
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: times that will hang them over into the next game.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: They just lost to the Dodgers yesterday. Finally, even though
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: they won the series, I still don't think Saint Louis
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: is that good. I think Milwaukee is better than Saint
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: Louis Is, but Saint Louis has the better record, so
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be a little bit misleading. People are gonna
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: look at this and think, oh my god, Saint Louis
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: just swept Pittsburgh. They just almost swept the Dodgers. They
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: have the better record, and people might want Saint Louis here.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: I would caution you against that. Milwaukee coming into this game.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: They did just lose to Washington yesterday. They lost a
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: three game win streak. But I think they're gonna show up.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: They're they're in the middle of a road trip. They
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: just took kind of an ugly loss yesterday. I think
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: they will show up here. As far as the bullpens
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: are concerned, Milwaukee used two relief pitchers, so that's pretty good.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: They didn't use their closer either. Saint Louis used two
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: as well. But Saint Louis's bullpen has been bad. They're
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: twenty fourth and bullpen whip Milwaukee hasn't been great, but
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: their era is below four. Saint Louis is almost five,
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee nineteenth and bullpen whips, so yes, Milwaukee has a
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: bullpen advantage. Saint Louis has the better offense right now.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Still don't know if I totally buy into that. They're
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: ninth right now, Milwaukee's twenty third, so you do have
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: to give them the edge, but I think maybe the
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: edge is not as much as you would think. Chad
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Patrick I thought was gonna pitch yesterday, but he did not,
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: so he is pitching today for Milwaukee. I handicapped him yesterday,
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: but we'll do it again. Two point five seventy Ray
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: one point two to five whip. He's a little bit
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: worse on the road though, or a bit worse with
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: a four ERA on the road. So far, he just
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike guys out. He's got sixteen strikeouts in twenty
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: eight innings. Not a lot of strikeouts. Also, the walk
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: number at thirteen is definitely too high, but five of
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: those came in his last outing against Arizona, and he
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: also one hit them, won the game and pretty much
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: kept them off the board, like only allowed two runs,
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: so he was able to work through that. And his
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: walk numbers haven't been that bad besides that outing, so
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: maybe that was a little bit fluky. He's only allowed
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: twenty two hits in the twenty eight innings, so that's
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: not too bad. His numbers against Saint Louis, they're kind
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: of all over the place. It's a small sample size.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Twenty five at bats, five strikeouts, no walks, two eighty
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: average is too high, but a five to sixty ops
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: is pretty good. That's low, so he's allowed no extra
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: base hits to them, so I'm leaning more towards Chad
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: Patrick should do alright in this game. Kyle lay Hey
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Cardinals. He has not been good
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: five point five to two ERA, one point six to
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: seven WHIP. He's been a little bit worse at home too,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: with a six ERA, even though this is kind of
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: a more pitcher friendly ballpark. I think twenty two strikeouts
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: in twenty nine to third innings not a high strikeout ray,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: but he's also walked eleven guys I love thirty eight
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: hits and six home runs, So overall, he has not
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: been good, even though he doesn't have any start reason
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: been awful, so he's at least been consistent. But he's
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: been consistently slightly bad, Like he basically gets you five
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: innings and allows three or four runs, which you know
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: it won't put you out of the game, but it's
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: not great, especially with this bullpen following him up. This
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: bullpen is bad as well. We were able to get
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: an over correct in at least one of his games
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: where he's actually I think two of them, I think
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: we played. We gave out an over on the show
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: in two of his last three games, and it was
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: they were both winners. They both went over, so the
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: under was mixed in the middle there. We did not
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: have a play on that game, all right, But yeah,
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: Lay he not good overall numbers against Milwaukee. He does
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: have good numbers against them in twenty four at bats,
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: four strikeouts, two walks. That's not great, but one sixty
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: seven batting average allowed three to ninety seven ops. It's
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: a small sample. I don't know. I still don't trust Lay.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Even those matchup numbers might look all right. I lean
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee in this game. I think the spot is not
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: good for Saint Louis. Like I said, even though they're
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: not traveling, I think Saint Louis is not as good
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: as their record looks. There's a reason why Milwaukee's favored
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: on the road even though they have the lesser record.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: They're about minus one p fifteen or so. But the
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: money looks like it's disagreeing with Milwaukee. Sixty percent of
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: ticket's only fifty one percent of the cash on them,
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: But I still lean that way. It's the way that
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: it is. I think Patrick is definitely better than lay Hey.
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: You know, the matchup numbers are kind of keeping me
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: away from it a little bit, But I don't like
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: the situation for Saint Louis. Like I said, hangover spot
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: potential there. They still might get up for it though,
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: because it is a game against Milwaukee, but I think
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's gonna get up for it as well. Milwaukee is
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: actually the better team, even though the records don't show it.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: So that's what I think. Dodgers at Houston Houston, I mean,
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: I the Red Sox just what the fuck, dude, Houston
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: is not a good team this year and they just
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: beat the Red Sox again. Now Houston's returning on from
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: a road trip or they went to Baltimore and Boston,
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: and you know, I talk about it. When a team
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: returns home from a road trip, they can be distracted.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: They have to get back to home life. They got
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: stuff to do. The only thing that kind of mitigates
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: that a little bit is they're playing the Dodgers, so
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: they might get up for that because the Dodgers are
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: the best team in baseball. The Dodgers did just end
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: a losing streaks, so they have positive momentum here. And
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: they're traveling from Saint Louis, so the Dodgers set up
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: is a lot better. It's a lot better to travel
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: from Saint Louis to Houston than it is for Houston
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: to you know, return home from a road trip to
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: the East Coast. So, and the Dodgers ended that losing
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: momentum yesterday, which I think is good because that will
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: just put an end to it. It'll give them new
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: momentum moving forward. So the situation favors the Dodgers in
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: my opinion. As far as the bullpens are concerned, the
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: Dodgers have the way better bullpen. They use three relief
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, but they use treeing him for one pitch,
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: so he'd be available again if they want to use him.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Houston used four relief pitchers yesterday in that extra inning
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: game in Boston. Houston also has the worst bullpen in
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: baseball by far. Right now, their whip is like point
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: one worse than every other bullpen in baseball. Their ERA
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: is half a run worse than every other bullpen in baseball.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: This is a trash bullpen from Houston, dude. And Dodgers'
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: bullpen is third in WHIP right now, so their bullpen
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: is significantly better than last year. It looks like surprisingly
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: good right now, though maybe they won't be quite as
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: good as the season moves along. They don't even really
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: need it to be that good. The Dodgers are second
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: in offense right now because they did not do well
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: for a span of about four games. They fell behind Atlanta.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: But I think the Dodgers probably are the best offense.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: But Houston is right behind them at third. So at
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: least Houston's been able to hit. But there are a
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: lot of disadvantages for Houston here, men. Houston's pitching in
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: this game is an unbelievable disadvantage. The Dodgers have a
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: huge pitching edge year. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's pitching for the Dodgers
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: two point eight to seven ERA, one point h one whip.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: He's really good. His home road splits are very insignificant,
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: so he's good both home and away. Thirty two strikeouts,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: nine walks, and thirty seven to two thirds innings. Not
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: a high strikeout rate, but all the other numbers are good.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Twenty nine hits allowed. You know, he doesn't put a
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: lot of guys on base. He's allowed three or fewer
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: earned runs in every start this season. Numbers against Houston,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: I really haven't seen a whole lot of them. The
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: numbers don't look good, but it's a very small sample.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: They only have five hitters who have faced him fifteen
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: at bats. They do have a couple extra base hits
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: in there, six strikeouts, no walks. They do have a
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: four hundred average against him in nine to thirty three ops.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna take that as an indicator that
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: Yamamoto is gonna do horribly here. You know, I'm not
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: gonna play the game. I think that I like the
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: Dodgers in the game, and I think Yamamoto should pitch okay,
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: and like he should pitch well enough here. But you know,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: the price is the reason why I can't really do it.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Steven Ochred is listed as a starter for the Astros.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: This looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Houston. We
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: have a problem. Four point two Era one point two whip.
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: Those numbers don't look bad. But the problem is he's
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: an opener. You know, he goes one inning basically in
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: all of his outings, so he's clearly gonna be an
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: opener here. And then you have the worst bullpen in
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: baseball coming in behind him for the majority of the game,
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: and half of the bullpen got used yesterday. So is
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: that a situation you really want to find yourself in.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: I would say no, you know, just for posterity, I
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: guess we can look at Okred against the Dodgers. He
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: has been pretty good. Twenty eight at bats, five strikeouts,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: two walks, two fourteen average six sixty ops. Fine, even
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: if Okret has one clean inning here, he's not gonna
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: be in the game much longer than that, depending on
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: what the matchup looks like. That's not good enough. You know,
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers they should win this game. They have the
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: pitching edge all across the board in this game. They
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: have the better situation, but the money seems to be
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: indicating against them. Ninety percent of tickets, eighty nine percent
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the Dodgers their minus two hundred
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: minus two ten. Again, I don't think you can lay
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: a price like that, you could lay the Dodgers run
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: line if you wanted to. I think maybe you go
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: Dodgers over their team total might make more sense. The
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: total in the games around eight and a half nine. Uh,
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: you're gonna need the dodgersrobably score like six runs though,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: to get you over that total. But they could definitely
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: do it against the worst bullpen in baseball, pitching almost
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: the entirety of the game. The Dodgers should be able
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: to put up runs, and then that takes the Yamamoto
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: having bad matchup numbers out of the equation as well.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: So probably I would look Dodgers over team total, and
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: that one is probably what I would do. Money looks
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: like it's hitting the under a little bit in the game,
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: which I don't. Yeah, I don't see the argument for that.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: You know, how could you possibly play an under with
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: Houston's bullpen pitching an entire game. You can't do that, so,
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: you know, unless you think that the total is too
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: high because of that, But it doesn't look like it
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: is to me. All Right, Chicago White Sox at Anaheim.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is staying at home. They just lost the series
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: to the Mets. Anaheim's playing some bad baseball right now.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: The White Sox are actually playing all right. They did
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: just lose a five game win streak, though, I talk
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: about that when a team loses a win streak sometimes
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: it will hang them over into the next game. They
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: just had a close game at San Diego yesterday. The
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: good thing for the White Sox is they're staying in
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: southern California for this so the travel is not bad
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: for them. And the White Socks have actually been surprisingly
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: not horrible this year. So far, they've been better than Anaheim. Actually,
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: I think White Sox used three relieve pitchers yesterday. Anaheim
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: used three. Both bullpens have been bad, so something you
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: have to take into account their twenty sixth and twenty seventh, respectively,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: White Sox Angels in bullpen whip. The Angels era is
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: almost a run higher than the White Sox, So yeah,
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: the Angels have a really bad bullpen. The White Sox
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: not good either. Angels have had the better offense. They're
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: thirteenth right now. The White Sox are twenty first in ops.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: The pitching matchup here is interesting. Davis Martin is pitching
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: for the White Sox. He's been surprisingly good this year.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: One point nine to five ERA one point oh wait, whip.
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: It seems really strange, though, to see a guy who's
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: twenty nine and all of a sudden he's pitching way
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: better than he has before. Whenever I see that, you know,
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: I'm worry that it's not gonna last. But I don't
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: really see much. I don't see too many reasons to
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: want to fade him right now. His ERA is a
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: little bit worse on the road, sure, but it's still
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: two point four to nine, so that's not even bad.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer runs in every outing since
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: his first outing of the season, so all throughout April
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: that was the case. The White Sox have won all
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: but one of his starts. It's really crazy. Now. One
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: drawback is he just faced Anaheim, so they just saw him.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: But he did well. He went five to two thirds,
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, one walk, one an run allowed, seven hits
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: is a little bit too high, but he pitched well.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: But that might mean that he might not pitch as
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: well here though, because Anaheim did just see him, so
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be more familiar with him than they normally
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: would be. Thirty three to eight strike out walk racing
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: for him very extreme fly ball rate, which does worry me,
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: especially on the road at Anaheim, but he pitched in
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: you know, at the A Stadium, he pitched in Arizona.
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: Those are hitter friendly ballparks and he was absolutely fine
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: in those outings. And even though he has a crazy
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: fly ball rate, he's only allowed two of them runs
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: this season, which is wild. He's only allowed thirty two
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: hits and thirty seven innings. His overall numbers, he can't
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: argue too much with them. Man numbers against Anaheimer they're fine,
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: and forty seven at bats, ten strikeouts, four walks, two
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: seventy seven average is a little bit high, but six
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: to ninety five ohps isn't too bad. So yeah, he's
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: been pretty good against them. But again he did just
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: see them. But the same could be said for Jose Soriano,
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: who is having a really good season point eight four ERA,
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: point nine to four whip. Usually, like last year, he
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: was really bad at home, but this year he was
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: really He's been really good at home, point four to
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: eighty ra at home. Now, going into last start, which
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: was against the White Sox, he had allowed one run
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: over the course of the entire season, and the White
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: Sox had two of them runs off him, and they
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: got three runs off him, So he became human in
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: that game against the White Sox, which you know I
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: said his numbers were gonna regress. I mean, yeah, Soriano
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: has been excellent this year, but nobody, even the best
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: pitcher in baseball, can't sustain numbers like this. And while
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: he's pretty good, he's not the best pitcher in baseball overall,
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: pretty good numbers forty nine strikeouts of forty two and
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: two thirds inning, he's a very low twenty four hits allowed.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: He's been almost unhittable. Sixteen walks is a little bit high.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: Too many walks. But you know, he came back down
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: to earth a little bit in his last outing, and
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: maybe that's a sign that he's going to be a
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: little bit more human moving forward. And the White Sox
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: did just see him, which might give the White Sox
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an edge against him. Just like
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: I said with the other side of this equation here
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: with Martin, both staraty pitchers have been seen recently by
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: these opposing offenses. Soriano has numbers against the White Socks
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: are actually not good, and that includes that recent start obviously.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: Most of it is that start twenty six at bats eight,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: strike out, seven walks, three zero eight batting average allowed
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: nine to ninety three oh ps. Those are not good numbers, man.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: So you know, on the surface, this looks like an under,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: and the total is definitely low, and it is low
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: for a reason. Seven and a half is the total
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: money seems to be coming in against the under though
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: ninety four percent of tickets and only eighty seen percent
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the under. If you're gonna go under,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: obviously you have to do it first five innings. There's
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: no way that you can include the bullpens in and
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: under like that with a really small total like that.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: You gotta do it with just the starting pitching in there.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: And I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but Soriano bad matchup numbers
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: and the fact that both starting pitchers just saw these
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: opposing hitters, which will give the hitters a little bit
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: of an extra advantage. I think I can't go undering
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: this game. The line for the money line, we have
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty five or so on Anaheim. The money
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: looks like it's somewhat indicating towards Anaheim fifty to fifty
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: on the tickets, fifty two percent of the cash on Anaheim.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: I don't really Yeah, I don't have a good feel
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: for it. Man. You could look at what these teams
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: did in their last series, though, and that would indicate
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: towards Anaheim. For me, the fact that the White Sox
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: swept Anaheim is Chicago two series ago. That might have
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: the White Sox overlooking Anaheim a little bit here. And
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: Anaheim might have a little bit more motivation here because
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: when you just got swept by your opponent that you're
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: now facing again, I think you do get up a
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: little bit more for that game. So I don't necessarily
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: have a disagreement with it. But Soriano's matchup numbers do
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: look really battle though. There is a chance that he
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: actually pitches better here and bounces back since he was
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: pitching better than he did in his last start all season,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: so you know, there is something to be said for that.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: But I don't really want to fade Davis Martin necessarily here.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that game is one that I'm staying away from.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: All right. I'm gonna be right back and talk about
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: the remaining couple of games here, and I've won hockey
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: play as well, which is going against the market, which
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: I don't love. All right, who yeah, I feel refreshed. Man,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: My sinuses just have huge problems. Maybe I need to
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: get you know, septum surgery or some crap. Atlanta at Seattle,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: this is an interesting matchup, dude. Atlanta I think might
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: have the best record in Major League Baseball. Seattle I
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: think is not as bad as the record looks. And
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: Seattle's coming off getting swept at home pretty embarrassingly by
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: the Royals. Really strange given that Seattle has a much
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: better bullpen than the Royals and every game is pretty close.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: But you know, maybe Seattle is gonna bounce back from that.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's a decent spot for them
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: after an embarrassing sweep. I think you will want to
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: show up with some extra effort here. They're gonna get
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: up for a game against Atlanta. Atlanta just swept Colorado
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: over the weekend in you know, a high scoring series,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: at least on the Atlanta side of things. That's gonna
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: make Atlanta look really good offensively. And I think the
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: public is probably gonna want Atlanta here because they have
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: a really good record. They've been putting up a ton
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: of runs, but obviously the cores Field effect was happening there.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: Now they're going from the best hitting park at baseball
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: to one of the best pitching parks in baseball here,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: so their offensive numbers should go down a little bit
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: in this series against Seattle. Seattle also pitches better than
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: Colorado does, so this is a different animal here. You know,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: obviously I'm taking a look at this and that has
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: been leaning towards Seattle in this game for those reasons,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: which I do, but I don't know if it's good
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: enough here man. Now, yes, Seattle is a little bit
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: under the radar. You know. They made that nice run
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: last year, but nobody's gonna want them because their record
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: looks really bad. Atlanta has actually been really good on
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: the road as well, but some of that might be
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: that they've played some weaker opponents on the road as well,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: like Colorado, like Washington, like Philly, who hasn't been playing well,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: like the Angels, you know, So it's not like ga
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is beating up, you know, good teams on the road.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: They're not playing good teams, and in fact, Seattle is
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: gonna be one of the better teams they've had to
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: face on the road. So yes, I'm definitely making a
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: bit of a case for Seattle. Here. Seattle used three
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday Atlanta use all of them, well, all
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: the ones that are listed on this chart. Here, Atlanta
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: used six relief pitchers, So the bullpend rest edge is
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: in favor of Seattle.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: Seattle didn't really use their better relievers yesterday either, I
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: don't believe. Let me make sure that. Yeah, so Seattle,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: you know, bizarre no munos like these as brashes on
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: the DL though, but their better relievers are pretty much
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: available here, so that's good for Seattle. Atlanta's had the
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: best bullpen in baseball based on whip and one of
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: the best eras. Seattle is a little bit under the radar,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: I think bullpen wise right now, they're sixteenth, Their era
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: is really good. They actually have one of the best
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: bullpen eras. It's actually better than the Braves, but their
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: whip has been a little bit concerning. But yeah, I
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: think Seattle's bullpen you could make the argument they're a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: little bit better than Atlanta's given the rest disadvantage that
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's has coming into this game. Offensively, Atlanta has been good.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: They're number one in baseball and ops right now. Seattle
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: has not been very good at twenty second, But you know,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: I like pitching overhitting. JR. Ritchie is fishing for Atlanta.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: He's been okay. He's only made two starts in his
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: career so far. He's been alright though, two point nine
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: to two ERA one point three whip. His road start
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: was actually better than the home start, which was at Washington.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: He took a bit of a step back against Detroit
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: though at home in his most recent outing, and he
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: had four walks there. So his walk rate has been concerning.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: He's got elevied strikeouts in twelve and a third innings,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: which is pretty good, but six walks and three home
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: runs allowed that's concerning. Ten minutes allowed is not too bad.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the walks in home runs are a bit
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: of an issue here. Now, he does have a little
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: bit of an edge because Seattle's never seen him before,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: and that's kind of why I hesitate a little bit
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: with Seattle here, one of the reasons why I like
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: to set up for Seattle. But you know, I wish
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: they were going against a pitcher they were more familiar
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: with and could hit you know what I mean, Richie
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: could pitch well here potentially. Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: He's pretty good, although his numbers are a little bit
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: worse than you expect this year four point zero three
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: ERA one point two to nine whip. He's got to
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: get that down a little bit. Surprisingly, he's been worse
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: at home, and usually Seattle's pitchers are all better at
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: home in the picture friendly ballpark, including Gilbert, so maybe
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: these numbers won't last that long. But he's got a
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: four point sixty seven here right at home, which is
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: pretty surprising, but a lot of it was one bad
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: start against the Yankees, skewing those numbers, so I'm not
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: gonna put a ton of weight into that. He's got
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: a really nice thirty nine to eight strike out walk ratio.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: He's a lot too many hits though, forty one hits
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: in thirty eight innings, But overall his numbers do look
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: pretty good here, and you know, we pretty much know
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: what he is at this point. Against the Braves, his
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: numbers are good in eighty seven at bats, twenty three
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: to six strike out walk ratio, two PHO seven batting
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: average allowed six zero three oh ps, so in his career,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: he has been able to hold these Braves hitters down,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: even though the Braves have hit well this year. I'm
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know how how much that's gonna keep up, man,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: I honestly don't know.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: I will lean to Seattle here, got to zoom in
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit. Tickets ninety four percent of the cash
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta. I don't really buy that. The money looks
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: like it did come in early on Seattle though, because
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: the line moved way up. The line is all over
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: the place right now. It looks like you can find
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: basically anywhere between minus one forty five and minus one sixty.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: Uh So I would say Seattle money line if it's
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: below minus one fifty makes sense. Otherwise you could go
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: like a split bet run line money line. I'd lean
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lead Seattle in the game. Money looks like
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: it is kind of indicating on the under, even though
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: it looks like a public under. But the oddsweakers are
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: telling you it should be low scoring with a seven
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: and a half total there. But I worry that Atlanta's
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: bullpen is just totally unrested right now. I still want
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: to disagree with an under though, I mean you're you're
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: still looking at two pretty good bullpens. If you wanted
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: to go first five, you could do that too. Maybe
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: I would go full game because you are getting it
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: under the key number seven and a half there. U
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: both pitchers may very well pitch okay here and save
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: the bullpens a little bit as well. So and under
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't disagree with it. San Diego at San Francisco
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: the last game up here. San Francisco is returning home
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: from the East Coast, and they had a bad road trip.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: They lost every game at Philadelphia and at Tampa Bay.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: So I think the knee jerk reaction might be, well,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: maybe they should bounce back here. Maybe not from the public,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: because the public will notice that San Diego has the
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: better record here, but San Francisco falls into that spot
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: man returning cross country, returning home from a road trip.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: You know, I talk about it all the time. They
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: have to readjust now to the Pacific time zone. It's
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: gonna mess with their biological clock in addition to them
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: being distracted having to get back to home life, and
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: they've had no days off to do it, although obviously
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: they left in the afternoon yesterday, but still really really
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: bad spot for San Francisco. And when it's a bad
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: team in baseball in a bad spot like that, it
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: actually tends to be even worse. So it is definitely
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: a fade spot that San Francisco is in here. San Diego,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: they're starting a road trip and they ended a four
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: game losing streak, so it's a positive spot for San Diego.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: So I like San Diego for that reason, ending the
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: losing streak, ending that losing momentum you go out on
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: the road, They're staying in the Pacific time zone, staying
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: in California. Much much better spot for San Francisco here,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: and usually you're focused to start the road trip. A
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: much much better spot for San Diego. Excuse me, San Diego,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: way better situational spot for San Diego here. Yes, and yeah,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: I mean San Francisco might get up for it because
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: it's a divisional game, but this looks like a really
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: bad spot for them. Now. San Francisco does have a
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: pretty good bullpend, but so does San Diego. San Francisco
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers used yesterday. San Diego used three, but
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: they used like all their better relievers yesterday, including Mason Miller. Obviously,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: but still San Diego is seven again in bullpen whip.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: Their ERA is above four, but I don't really expect
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: that to last. The Giants bullpen has an RA of three,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: which is much better, but their whip is actually worse
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: than San Diego's. They're a twelveth right now. But overall, yes,
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: I think both bullpens are good. Probably a little bit
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: of a wash as far as the bullpens. Both offenses
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: have been pretty bad. They're both in the bottom several offenses.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: San Diego has been better than San Francisco though, who
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: are just miserable on offense. So these two teams are similar,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: but San Diego, I think, is just a little bit
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: better and started pitching wise, san Diego's got Randy Vasquez
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: on the mound. He does have good numbers this year
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: two point nine to four ERA, one point one to
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: six whip. He's actually been really good on the road
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: point six point nine roady RA. San Diego's won every
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: outing of his so far, including one where he got
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: roughed up against the Cubs in the last game and
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: we unfortunately had an under in that game and it
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: did not work. But he's alternated good and bad starts
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: over his last four starts now, so that would mean
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: this start should be good. He's facing a much weaker
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: offense here. That was kind of the problem. But going
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: into that game against the Cubs, Vasquez had faced mostly
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: weaker offenses. The Cubs were the best offense that he faced,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: and he got kind of screwed because he did give
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: up a Grand Slam and his teams were turning home
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: from Mexico City, so that was a really weird spot.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: But you know, given all that, I think he should
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: probably pitch better here and bounce back here again. San
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: Diego's won every one of his starts so far, which
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: is good. He's got thirty four strike cuts and thirty
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: three and two thirds innings. He's always had walk concerns
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: and he still has too many this year or eleven,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: but it's not as bad. The ratio is actually not
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: that bad between strike guts and walks, and he's allowed
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: twenty eight hits in the thirty three to two thirds innings,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: so he hasn't allowed that many hits. You know, I
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: like vazquezm I'm almost talking myself into a play here.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: Vazquez against San Francisco. They really haven't even seen that
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: much of him. They only have three hitters of face
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: him before Devers does have a home run off him.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: They have a two eighty six average off him in
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: seven at bats, one thy eighty nine ops. But I
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: don't think there's anything you could really look at in
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: these numbers. No strikeouts, one walk. But again, he basically
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: hasn't even been seen before by most of these San
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: Francisco hitters, and they're not even good. So I don't
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: think Vazkaz is gonna be bad here. Trevor McDonald is
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: pitching for San Francisco. He's made three appearances in his
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: major league career. He made two starts last year. Four appearances,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: my mistake. Two starts last year he was he was
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: pretty good. A three point six ERA and one point
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: oh seven whip, had almost one strike up er inning,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: and had a really good fourteen to two strikeout walk
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: ratio last year. So he was actually good in a
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: very limited sample size last year. But he's twenty five.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I looked at his numbers, and his
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: numbers don't impress me that much. Man, he was, he's
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: in the miners this year. His ERA and the miners
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: is like above five, So I'm like, you know, that
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: definitely concerns me that he's not doing that well in
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: Triple A right now. I think his whip was like
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: in the one threes when I looked at it, something
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: like that, So that doesn't really impress me. He does
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: have kind of a major league pitch mix, and that
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: he does throw numerous different pitches. I think he throws
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: like kind of mid to high nineties fastball. I think
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: he has a pretty good sinker, is what's in his
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: arsenal there, and then a couple of breaking pitches, maybe
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: a change up mixed in there. I don't know what
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: to do with this man. And then we can look
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: at his matchup numbers, which I don't believe san Diego
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: has ever seen him before. No, that was Tampa, I
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: hang on, I don't believe so though. No, So he
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: does have the unfamiliarity edge if you want to make
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: that argument against San Diego. But I like san Diego
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: in this game. It's not gonna be on my card,
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: I guess, but you know, I'm it's tempting, but the
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: money looks like it's disagreeing with me. Seventy three percent
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: of tickets and only sixty nine percent of the cash
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: on San Diego. But the spot is so bad for
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: San Francisco. It's just I wish they had a pitcher
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: that was more familiar to San Diego on the mound,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. But yeah, I don't trust McDonald.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: I think Vazquez has kind of worked his way into
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: being more trustworthy. You're having to lay a little bit
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: of a price. It's minus one forty. You might be
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: able to find out there in San Diego, but that
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: is what I would do. I would lay the money
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: line with the Padres in that game. The total is
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: at eight. The money seems to be kind of hitting
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: the under there. It is a pitcher friendly ballpark. You
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: do have two good bullpens here, and the starting pitching
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: could potentially be okay on both sides here. Not necessarily
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: gonna disagree with an under there, but I prefer San
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: Diego in that game. All right, Hockey, we are gonna
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: have one play in hockey. First came up as Philadelphia
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: and Caroline. I'm not gonna give out a play in
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: this one. Caroline is a massive favorite, though I think
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: they're probably two heavily favored here. Now I mentioned that
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: the season series was closer than maybe people think, so
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: I think Philadelphia can actually match up against Carolina. It's
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: just the problem is Carolina does what Philadelphia does, and
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: they do it better right, Like it's good goaltending, defense,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: good fundamentals, physicality. But what I will say is that
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Carolina just won three to nothing, so I do think
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: the zigzag might be in effect here. I'm gonna lean
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: to Philadelphia here, even though Carolina was really good at
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: home this year, Philadelphia was all right on the road.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: But if you look at it, the three nothing final
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: was misleading. Even though Philadelphia did not get off a
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: lot of shots, they won the face off battle and
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: they won the hit battle as well. So Philadelphia was
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: really physical in the game, and looking at the stats here,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: that doesn't really indicate to me that this would have
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: been a three nothing final, you know what I mean.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: But yes, Carolina does have a huge experience whatever, So yes,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: I think Carolina is going to win the series at
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: this point with Tampa Bay out which, by the way,
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: that was complete bullshit Tampa Bay losing Game seven. I
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: don't know if you saw that game, but Tampa Bay
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: outshot in Montreal yesterday thirty to nine in the game.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: That's right. Montreal had nine shots on goal, which was
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: the fewest shots on goal ever in a playoff win.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: And they literally had no shots on goal in the
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: entire second period yesterday Montreal, which has never happened before
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: in a playoff game. And they had two power plays
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: in the period as well, and had no shots on goal.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: And somehow Montreal won that game, very very misleading, very
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: much bullshit. Tampa Bay should have won that game. But
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: now that Tampa Bay is out Carolina, I think there's
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: something wrong if Carolina does not make the finals at
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: this point, you know, and they were my second pick
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: to be a champion. I was picking between them and Carolina,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: I excuse me, between them and Tampa Bay, and I
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: picked the wrong one. But anyway, this is a spot
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: where I think it does zigzag. I think Philadelphia does
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: put up more of a fight here, and you can
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 2: get a good puck line on this. I think the
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: line is even higher on Carolina in this game than
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: it was in Game one. So because I did a
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: split bet in Game one, I'm pretty sure this game,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if you need to. I think
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: you can just play the spread on this. Yeah, you
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: can play plus one and a half at minus one
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: twenty at some of the books out there right now.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: So that's the way I would lean in this game,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: would be Philadelphia plus one and a half. Take them
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: to keep this game close, because I think it was misleading. However,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: my play is going to be in the other game,
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: and maybe it's bracket byas, but hopefully we can keep
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: this up. We're five two and one in the NHL
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: playoffs so far. This is gonna be one of the
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: pussy bets. A split bet on Vegas minus one and
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: a half at plus one fifty for part of the
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: bet minus won sixty five on the money line for
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: the other part of the bet. I believe it winds
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: up being Actually, I could show you what the breakdown was.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: If we do it out of one hundred to win
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: one hundred, two thirds of it go on the money
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: line or on the minus part of it, which is, yeah,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: the money line, and then whatever that's gonna win for you,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: which in out of one hundred would be forty bucks.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: You put that on the money line part of it,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: or excuse me, on the plus money part of it,
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: the puck line. In this case, if that makes sense,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: and then it evens out such that you get a
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: minus one oh six puck line created here, so if
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: they win by one, you're gonna push the bet. That's
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: how this works. Hopefully that makes sense. I do this
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: a lot. I know now the money seems to be
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me on this. Fifty six percent of tickets,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: sixty five percent of the cash on Vegas, and by
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: the way, for what it's worth, in the other game,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: Caroline is very public at eighty nine percent of the
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: tickets and cash. The money indicating on the under in
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: that other game as well at five and a half.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: Not necess I wouldn't necessarily disagree with the under in
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia Carolina. I mean, it's just the style that those
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: two teams play is more indicative of an under. Anaheim
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: Vegas is not, which is why the totals at six
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: and a half. But because it is the first game,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe there is a little bit more defensive intensity,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: But the money is coming in towards the over in
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: Anaheim Vegas. And as we saw with Anaheim in that
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: Edmonton series, Anaheim, they are not a good defensive team. Man.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: So part of the reason I like this is I
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: think Vegas is the better team. Vegas is more experience,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: and I know they have a coach they haven't had
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: for very long with Tortorella, but Tortorella has a lot
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: of playoff experience as a coach. Vegas has a lot
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: of experienced players Anaheim. I mean, they do have Chris
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: krijn or and stuff like that, and he was in
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: the playoffs with the Rangers multiple times or whatever. But
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is definitely more of a young team, you know what.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: I mean. They don't have the experience, and I don't
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: know how they're going to react to having just beaten Edmonton.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: That was huge them beating Edmonton and doing it in
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: front of their home crowd. That's a big, big deal. Like,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: I think it's a big deal. Man. You beat the
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: team that won the conference the last two years and
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: you're in the playoffs for the first time in like
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: seven years, which Anaheim is. Yeah, I mean, that's a
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: big deal. I think that could put them in a
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: little bit of a letdown. And I know there aren't
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: really letdowns in the playoffs, but I think it's a
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: little bit of a bad spot for them here. Anaheim
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: was not good on the road. Remember I talked about
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: how that Anaheim Edmonton series is going to be really
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: home centric, which it was. Anaheim managed to steal one
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: game on the road and that's how they won that series.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: And yes, Vegas is a lot closer to Anaheim than Edmonton.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: I get that this is a more familiar environment for
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: them to be in, but there's still a below five
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: hundred team on the road, even without the overtime losses,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: and Vegas is better at home at least than on
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: the road, So there is that. Now there is an
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: argument to they made that Vegas didn't play that well
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: against Utah, but once they kind of took control of
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: the series, it was just I don't know. To me,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: it was kind of lights out, and I think Vegas
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: did play better than it kind of looked in some
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: of those games. And yes, they had an experience edge
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: against Utah, but they have the experience edge in this
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: game is in this series as well. Now neither team
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: has like a rest edge or rust disadvantage here because
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: both teams played six games series, so they both ended
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: around the same time, so there's no real significant rest
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: difference between the two teams. Vegas is returning home, but
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: they only won in Utah, and that's a quick trip,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: doesn't really matter, so I'm fine with that. But what's
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: interesting is that you look at the regular season series.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: Anaheim swept Vegas in the regular season three nothing so
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: and based on how Anaheim looked really good, Like, I
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: think Anaheim looked too good in beating Edmonton, so I
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna get extra credit for what they looked
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: like against Edmonton. The public loves these high scoring games.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, they beat Connor McDavid. You know this
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: Anaheim team, they're for real whatever, they beat the team
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: that won the conference the last couple of years. Vegas,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: I think, is a little bit under the radar here,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: and people are gonna look at this and say, how
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: could Vegas possibly win when they lost all three regular
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: season games, Well, two of them are in November. They
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: lost every one of these games by one goal, and
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: if you dig into the box scores, it was a
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: little bit misleading. Man. The first game was in Vegas,
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: Anaheim won four to three in overtime. Vegas had ten
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: more shots in the game and they won the face
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: off battle and hits were about even. So that doesn't
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: really indicate that it should have been a win for
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: Anaheim and that one of those. Yes, Vegas did have
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: a power play goal in that game, so you know
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: that's that was a misleading result in my opinion. The
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: next game, hold on, I just closed it. Oops, I
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: just clicked on the wrong series. Oh my god, my mistake.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: Hang on. This game, which was also in November, Anaheim
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: won in Anaheim four to three, also in overtime, and
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: you look at this game. Yes, I know, Vegas did
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: have another power play goal, and Vegas hasn't looked good
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: on the power play during the regular season or I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: mean during the playoffs so far. I mean, I get that,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: But the shots were close in this game. The hits
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: were pretty close, but Vegas dominated the faceaf percentage. They
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: won sixty six percent of the face offs, so again
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: it was a close game, but some of the stats
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: kind of indicate Vegas was a little bit better in
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: that game. So again a little bit misleading with the
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: fact that the Ducks won that game. And then the
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: most recent game, which was at Anaheim Anaheim one. But
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: again they're pretty good at home. They won four to three,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: not in overtime this time, but they had an empty
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: net goal at the end, although Vegas did score in
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: the final minute flucally flucally to cut the lead back
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: to one. But in this game, Anaheim was out to
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: a three to nothing lead. They did have a power
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: play goal game, and they still blew the lead. You know,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: Vegas was still almost able to win that game despite
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: being down big in the game. And if you look
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: at the stats, yes, Anaheim was the more physical team
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: they finally want to face off battles slightly, but Vegas
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: did up more shots. And yes, I know part of
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: it was because Vegas was losing the game. But what
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: I'm saying is that the fact that Anaheim won all
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: three regular season meetings is misleading. That is what I'm saying.
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I would, I would not put too much
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: weight into that, you know what I mean. Vegas is
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: not that bad, and two of those games were in
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: Anaheim as well. And Anaheim is not played in Vegas
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: since November eighth, so even though they're in the same division,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is not that familiar with playing in Vegas. Right now,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: I like it, dude, Yeah, I like the experience to
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: carry over here. You know, I think it was misleading
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: a little bit, well, not really misleading. Anaheim did win
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: against Edmonton, but edmund is a terrible defensive team, dude,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: They're just awful. Vegas is a bit better fundamentally than that.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: And I think you could trust higher in NET for
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: Vegas more than you could trust whatever jacked up shit
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: was going on in net for Edmonton. They basically don't
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: even have a goaltender after they trading Skinner was so
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: dumb for Jarry whatever his name is, he was bad, dude.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: So whatever, I like Vegas here. That's what we're going with.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: Hopefully that explanation was good enough. And then we have
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: NBA as well. Two NBA games two series are starting
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 2: here Philadelphia at New York. I think Philadelphia is going
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: to get their ass handed to them in this series.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: The Knicks have been the better of the two teams
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: all year. The Knicks are a big favorite in the series.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: They're minus seven and a half at home here now
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: looking at the regular season meeting, well, first of all,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: the Knicks are really good at home thirty and ten
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: at home Philly, twenty two and nineteen on the road,
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: so the home road splits do indicate towards New York.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: Now regular season they split two two, with the Knicks
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: winning the two most recent games, both on the road.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: The road team actually won every game, which is surprising.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: But I don't know how much weight we could put
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: it to this because Philadelphia, you know, they were missing
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: a lot of guys throughout the season. You know, Embiid
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: missed a bunch of time, George missed a bunch of time.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: I think they might have been there for the games
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: that they did win, though, and I think they might
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: have been out for some of these other games. And yes,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: the Knicks did annihilate Philadelphia the most recent time they played,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: so that might motivate Philadelphia a little bit here, you know,
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: So I guess that's one indicator towards Philly. These games
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: are NBC and Peacock. Now, one thing, I don't really
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: want to play on the Knicks after they blew out
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: Atlanta one forty to eighty nine. You do not want
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: to play on a team that wanted a blowout like that,
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: and they really won in three straight blowouts. But that
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 2: was such a ridiculous blowout that it's gonna make the
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 2: Knicks look better than they actually are. So I don't
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: really want the Knicks here for that reason. But Philadelphia.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: They now Philadelphia played more recently. Yes, that's true, So
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has a momentum advantage here where people might think, oh,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: the Knicks are more rested, and yeah, maybe the Knicks
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: won't develop RUSS because they did still have to go
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: six games against Atlanta, so the amount of rest is
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: not that different between the two teams. But sometimes having
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: just played will help you play through, so maybe that'll
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: be the case with Philadelphia here. Neither team is really
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: having to travel that far, although I think the Knicks
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: did just win their series in Atlanta, but they've had
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: extra time off to travel as well. This is a
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: very difficult game to handicap, dude, in Philadelphia. It was
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: a misleading win against the Celtics, obviously, Like the Celtics
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: had a double digit lead in the second half of
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: Game five, up three to one, the Celtics obviously should
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: have put that series away. Misleading win for Philadelphia in
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: that series. Yeah, you know, I think I'm gonna lean
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: to the Knicks in this one. Minus the city. You
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: can get seven now instead of seven and a half,
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: so that's a better number. The money seems to somewhat
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: be indicating on Philadelphia. I just don't think I see it.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: I think the Knicks are gonna win this series. The
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: Knicks are definitely better at home. I know the Knicks
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: won in a huge blow out in their last game,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: which looks a little bit misleading, but Philadelphia's win at
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: all in the previous series is also very misleading. So
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: seventy seven percent of tickets, eighty five percent of the
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: cash on Philly, but I'd probably lean towards laying it
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: with the Knicks. The totals at two thirteen and a
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: half with money kind of indicating on the under here.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know, I don't have a good
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: feel for the total here. If the teams were like
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: more rested, I might be more inclined to want to
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: go under, because that means, you know, the offenses might
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: be a little bit more cold, but and the defenses
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: might be a little bit more rested. But these teams
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: just played deep series, so you know, maybe maybe the
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: offenses will be a little bit still like you know
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: in rhythm here, you know what I mean. But then again,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: both teams just did put up kind of a misleading
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: amount of points in the recent games so well, especially
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: the Knicks, So maybe that is an indicator that maybe
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: the under makes a little bit more sense because the
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: Knicks are not going to score one hundred and forty again,
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: you know, uh so maybe that would be one indicator
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: towards the under. And then the second game is Minnesota
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 2: and San Antonio. San Antonio is a giant favorite here,
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: and you know, part of that is because Anthony Edwards
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 2: is injured. There's some indication that Edwards might come back
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: at some point during this series. Minnesota does have it
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: an experience edge. So, by the way, there's no real
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: experience edge between Philly and the Knicks. Both teams have experience,
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: but the Knicks have more deep playoff run experience right now,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: so I think the Knicks probably have a little bit
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: of a an experience edge against Philly. Minnesota has a
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: big experience edge against San Antonio. Though san Antonio is
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: still young, they're very new to this and that's the
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: one advantage Minnesota does have in this series is the experience.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: But Minnesota, they're just so shorthanded right now. Man, I
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: just don't see how they're gonna be able to do this.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: They did just beat Denver again in Minnesota for whatever reason,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: they match up well against Denver, Go Bear shuts down Jokic. Man,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is. That's like, go Bear.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: His only thing that he could do well is stop Jokich.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: That's like the only thing that he does. I don't
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna be able to stop Weben Yama. But
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: wem Min Yama is also a much more defensive player
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: than Jokich is. Jokic is very much an offensive player.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know. I don't think Minnesota's gonna
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: have the same matchup edges here. I mean, I'm not
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: gonna say Minnesota's gonna be in a letdown off of
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: beating Denver, but it was kind of a misleading win,
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: like it looked like Denver was gonna be ready to
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: win that series. If Denver had won Game six, they
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 2: would have won Game seven and Denver would be in
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: this series instead of Minnesota, you know what I mean? Yeah,
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: like Denver, I don't know what excuses they can make
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: for not beating a shorthand in Minnesota team, But whatever,
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 2: Minnesota's still shorthanded here, and yes it is factored into
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: the line. Maybe that means the line is a little
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: bit too high on San Antonio. You know, san Antonio
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: just burned through another very inexperienced team in Portland, and
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: one other disadvantage that san Antonio might have here other
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: than the experience factor, because again, they just played a
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: team that's probably even more inexperienced than they are and
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: is way worse than they are. So whatever, that was
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: an easy series for them to win. Minnesota is a
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: different animal, man, and san Antonio has been off since
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: last Tuesday, so san Antonio might have their momentum disrupted.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: You know, Minnesota last played much more recently. They last
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: played well, probably Thursday. Yeah, so but Minnesota I think
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: does have a little bit of a momentum edge because
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: they played on Thursday. San Antonio has been off for
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit too long. Yeah, the injuries being factored
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: into the line, and yes, Minnesota's already had to play
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: multiple games now without Edwards. But I think I would
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: lean towards taking the points with Minnesota here. I don't
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: think san Antonio is actually gonna lose the game. I
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: really don't think they're gonna lose the series. But thirteen
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: is a big number, man, I dropped from fourteen and
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: a half. At least, this isn't football, so it's not
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: a key number here numbers thirteen. The totals two seventeen
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: and a half, which some money looks like it is
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under. And now after the total went
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: up a little bit, the arguments for the under, I
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: think would just be, I mean, you know, Minnesota is
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: down their best score. San Antonio has possibly a little
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 2: bit of rust offensively, so you know, both teams are
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: kind of deepfense oriented, especially at this point. I think
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: you might see a decent amount of deepfense here. I
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: don't really disagree with the under here, which also an
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: under kind of helps Minnesota because if it's a lower
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: scoring game, it's more likely they're gonna be able to
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: cover as a double digit underdog. But I would lean
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: slightly towards Minnesota covering in that game. You know, next
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: round of playoffs, Minnesota has been here, like Minnesota has
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: been in the conference finals two years in a row.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. So the one thing they can hang
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: their hat on, Like I said, they're the way more
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: experienced team. So that's what we got going on there.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: You know, I do want to see real quick, what's
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: the series price on Cleveland? Is a Cavaliers let me. See,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: we don't see it here. I want to see what
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: the series price is on the Cleveland series, just because
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: I'm interested, because you know, I pick Cleveland to beat
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: the Pistons in my bracket. I know the Pistons are
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: favored in the home game and the in game one.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: I'm looking it up right now. Series odds, Yeah, I'm
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: just curious. I'm looking at the good old FD place here.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know why it doesn't show me like I
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: want to see series prices here? What are we doing?
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: By the way, Oklahoma City is a favorite against the
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: entire field to win to win the championship. By the way,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: it looks like Detroit is a slight favorite in the
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: series over Cleveland because they do have the home advantage
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: or whatever. But yeah, we picked Cleveland to win that series.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 2: They can absolutely do it. It's a I think it's
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: a very close series. I think it's Detroit is a
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: small favorite in the series. I'm pretty sure anyway, I
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: was just wondering that's gonna do it. The plays today
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: are Miami Marlins. I still want to call them the
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 2: Florida Marlins, and their logo I think was a little
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: bit better when they were in the Florida Marlins and
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: they beat the Yankees in the World Series that year.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: Josh Beckett, Baby, but we're taking Miami, not with Josh
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: Beckett Jansen junk, Baby, We're playing with our junk today.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: There you go. And then so Marlins money line and
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: then Hockey were playing a split bet on Vegas, partially
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: on the puck line and partially on the money line.
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it? Arcade, what's up? Man? Monday sucks?
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: Will what's up? Thanks for hanging out everybody. The World
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: Cup is awful, dude. The World Cup is just gonna
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: be a disaster for every place there that it's gonna be,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 2: including up here. They're using Gillette Stadium for it. The
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 2: transportation system can't even like sustain it. Dude. It's so
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: fucking stupid. I guess I'll talk about the World Cup
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: on the show. I don't know if I have a
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: whole lot to say about it. Man, Like I filled
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: out the knockout round is gonna be more fun. I
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: might fill out a knockout bracket on the show here,
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: but the group stage is, like, you know, it's I
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: don't know, it's not even that fun to figure out
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: like I already ESPN has a game for the group
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: stage part of it, and literally all I did was
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: just arrange all the teams by their betting odds and
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: just I'm like, whatever, just say and forget it. So
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: I won't do a show on that. It's just totally uninteresting.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: I think it'll get more interesting when the knockout stage
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: actually starts, and then it becomes more of like the
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: actual bracket, you know what I mean. And ESPN does
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 2: have that as well, so maybe I'll do a show
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: where I fill out that bracket. So yeah, the group
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: stage is just uninteresting though, But I think the group
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 2: stage is a little bit different. Now somebody that knows
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: soccer more than I do can tell me. But what
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: I thought the group stage was is that each group
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: has four teams, and I think there were like ten,
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: twelve groups whatever, they each have four countries in it.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: And I thought the top two teams they play round
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: rob and they each play each other and whoever gets
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: the most points, you know, you get however many points
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: for a win. I think it's either two or three
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 2: and then one for a draw, zero for a loss,
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: whatever it is. And I thought it was just the
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: top two teams in the group after the group stage
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: advanced to the knockout stage. That's what I thought. It
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: was the top two teams in points. But now it
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: looks like, yes, that it's still true, but it looks
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: like they're adding like wild cards into it. So like
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: the top teams in points, out of the teams that
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: don't land in the top two in their groups, I
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: guess a certain number of those teams advanced too. I
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, I don't know what the deal is
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: with it. Maybe that's always been the case, and I
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 2: just don't know because I don't follow the World Cup
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 2: well and off. But maybe I should not be offering
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 2: bets on the World Cup. I don't know if I
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: will be, but I'll at least try to fill out
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: a bracket on it. That's gonna do it. Learn it
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: ton on Twitter, learn it Tone on Instagram, Like subscribe
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: to the channel here, let's boost it get more people
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: to watch and listen. Mamorn Apple, Spotify, spreaker. We're on
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: audio covered in yuke on YouTube for my yuke stuff
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: page round dot Com, slash learn it toad for some
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: bonus stuff. Loser casts will be back tomorrow night I
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: think my loser pick is gonna be pretty good, although
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: somebody else might pick the same person. I don't know.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: We'll say, uh G Spot Giants podcast. We might be
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: doing an episode very soon as a draft recap. I
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know if I'm I don't know.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: We gotta figure it out and then what else is there?
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: I don't think I have anything else to promote, although
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: I will do an NFL Season Win Total show on
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: this channel at some point. Let me see if ESPN
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: has a game up for it, Pig skin Wind totals. Yes,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: that's what I want. No, it looks like they still
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: don't have a new game for it, so I don't know.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: Maybe they're not gonna do it this year. I don't know,
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: but that was the thing that kind of guided me
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: last year as far as fading the public and whatever.
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: I'm still gonna do the show. I'll do it at
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: some point the season win Totals. I'll wait for a
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: little bit and see if ESPN does put that game up,
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: so be on the lookoup for that. And then oh,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: WNBA is starting, I think on Friday, so I'm gonna
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 2: start jumping into the WNBA and I know there are
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 2: new teams that are added to the WNBA this year,
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: and I have no idea who the fuck they are.
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: But I do situational handicapping. We won, you know, We're
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: up in the w NBA last year, so I'm gonna
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: keep doing it. So that'll be happening as well. Same
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: handicapping principles apply. That's gonna do it for now. Peace,
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 3: No hold on.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: Hold on lating, no.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, let me for that bites, but
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 3: it don't get the crown.
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 2: Hold on and stay with me now