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IPO filing from Open AI stopped cold when Totally Autonomous recursive self improvement maybe 6 months away · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: June 8th was confidential paperwork with the F SEC was filed.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, an$852 billion valuation.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: The whole Wall Street machine pointed everything at what company?
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Then Sam Altman opened his mouth and said, maybe not.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: That same week, the man who filed the paperwork starts telling the people his IPO might get pushed.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: His reason, open AI could be less than six months away from recursive self-improvement.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: And for those of you that haven't been watching, that's AI that rewrites its own code.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: AI that builds the next AI without us in the loops.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: And if you can just look at the scale, it's not one AI building one AI.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's as many AIs as they can build into the compute and the power grid to build out other AIs.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: So that's exponential and nuts.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: So his actual logic, the faster that takeoff looks, the more it pays to stay private.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: So if this works, he will be in control of the entire board, apparently.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: And let me get this straight.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: So he files to share, sells shares to the public.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: Then he tells the public the reason he might not sell is that the machine is about to start improving itself.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: This IPO could have been the biggest bailout for everybody that's put their money into it.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: And because pension funds and everything else are going to be thrown into it once it goes IPO, and if the system breaks, well, we'll have bailouts and other things potentially.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the daily download, June 11th.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the first thing to sit with.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: This statement is either true or it's not.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: And both versions should irritate you and bother you.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: So if it's not true, the most powerful voice in AI, Sam Altman, just used the words recursive self-improvement to move his own valuation right before an IPO.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: And an IPO is the exact moment a company has to open the books.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Show the real score sheet.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: The real numbers get investigated.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of sharp people are already saying those numbers are hard to see.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Murky.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe the self-improvement talk is the magic trick.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the shiny future.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Don't look at the spreadsheet.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: So if it's true, then a company just told you the machine is about to start building better machines on its own.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: And the honest response to that is not excitement, it's a long pause.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now this is where my mind goes next.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: So come with me for a second.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: What if everybody involved in this race, they're all friends?
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: What if it's all just been drama for our sake?
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: I spent a long time around courtrooms as a cop.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's something the public never really sees.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Two attorneys in front of a jury.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Even the movies do a good job showing that this is not the case.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: One on each side in the room, they are enemies and venomement against each other.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: They're angry.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: They're calling each other apart in front of the people who hire them and the people judging the case.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's what a great act.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Then court lets out.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: And those same two attorneys are in the hallway, high-fiving, laughing, and maybe not in the hallway, but you know, behind closed doors.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: They're making dinner plans, asking about each other's kids and their family, comparing billable hours, because the fight in the room was just the product.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: The friendship outside the room, well, that was actually the truth.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: So I look at these AI leaders.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Publicly, they are rivals.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Oh my God, it's better than a Laker game playoff.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Racing, trading shots, one files an IPO, then the other one files an IPO.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Then the third one, this one warns about safety, that one warns about China.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: We can't lose the race.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: But please regulate us.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: Oh my God, we need the government to step in and please watch out for us in case we fail.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: And I wonder, what if behind the closed door there's a room nobody knows about, no sign on it, some quiet hallway that they only use, and they sit there and in there they laugh about how easily we get moved.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: How one sentence from one of them swings an entire market, changes what millions of people feel in an afternoon.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: They're still humans, even the ones building the thing that might replace humans, they are humans.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: And humans at the top tend to know each other.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now is AI different?
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the stakes are too big for friendship.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe the stakes are exactly why the friendship matters more than the rivalry.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: I just know I've watched the courtroom version of this my whole life, and it would be naive to assume the most powerful industry on earth is the one place where the rivals are not shaking hands the second the cameras shut down.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now let us say Altman is telling the truth.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Let us follow it all the way down.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Recursive self-improvement, the AI improves itself, then the better version improves itself again, faster every single round.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: The only fuel it requires is compute, raw computing power.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: And if these people are all in the same room high-fiving, if the whole industry quietly agrees this is the goal, then compute is not the only problem.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: There's plenty of compute.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Everything gets dropped.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Every other project, every other priority, even your enterprise agreement with one of these big or large AI tech firms, all of it pointed at one target.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: It all shuts down.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: One standard, one system, one intelligence sitting above all others.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: The Trump card, no pun intended, or maybe pun intended, I don't know.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: The card that beats every other card on the table, that's artificial super intelligence.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: If recursive self-improvement is real and the compute is there, the jump from there to that is not years.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: It might be moments.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: A machine improving itself doesn't keep our schedule.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't break for lunch.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: People call that the singularity.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think about that like the edge of a black hole.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: We can describe everything right up to the edge.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: The math holds right up to that line, past the line inside of it, nobody knows.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: The physics we trust stops working.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what super intelligence is.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: We can describe everything right up to the moment it arrives.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: And then we genuinely don't know what it looks like.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hell, we don't even know what now looks like.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: It could be everything for everyone, all the time, forever, disease solved, energy solved, work optional, world peace, the best versions anybody ever dreamed of.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Or it could be the end, or some version in between that we don't know.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: And that we we do not even have words for yet.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the strange piece in that.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing about your Tuesday changes because of one sentence from Sam Altman.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know what happens past the line.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: We never have, so we only do the thing that's ever made sense.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: We live right up to the edge as well as we possibly can.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: While OpenAI was filing and unfiling, the other big, big lab made its move.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: Anthropic, Dario Amade, Spaceballs Cap type cat.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: Good guy, anyway.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: June 10th, he published an essay on him doing two things.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: First, he asked the government for the power to block AI models.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: His words, frontier AI models like airplanes, should be required to go through testing and auditing, and their release should be blocked or reversed if they don't meet the standard.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: FAA style, regulate it like aviation.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: Second, he put$350 million on the table to deal with the workers his own product displaces.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: $200 million for research into what AI does to jobs,$150 million for a fellowship for young Americans starting their careers.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: Forget older Americans.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the part to notice.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: This is the cautious lab.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: He the breaks people, at least that's what they say.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: And this week the CEO asked the government for the power to block its own industry and set aside money for the people his own product puts out of work.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: So read that next to the Altman scenario.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: One builder says the machine might improve itself inside six months.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: The other builder says give the government a kill switch and here's money for the people it leaves behind.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: Two of the most powerful people in this field, same week, both flinching.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: So you don't build a kill switch for something you think is harmless.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: You don't set aside displacement money for a future you think is fine.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: So either they truly believe what they're building is that powerful, or they are very good at making us believe it.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: And we're right back at the room with no sign on the door.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to bring this down to the device in your pocket.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: Apple had its big event this week, WWDC.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: And they introduced new Siri powered by Google.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's about time Siri stepped up.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: The most valuable company on earth, the one that sold you privacy as the entire point.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Privacy is a human right.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: That was the slogan on the billboard, and this week they quietly admitted they could not build one thing that matters most right now.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: So they rented the brain from Google, the largest advertising company in the world.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: The assistant in your pocket doesn't run on Apple anymore.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: The questions route through Google now.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not mad at Apple.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: This is an honest version of the AI race.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: Even Apple, with all the money on earth, looked at building their own and said, we're going to rent it instead.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: That tells you how hard that game is and how fast it's moving.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: So it's out if Apple is renting, then the small business owner trying to build a whole AI stack from scratch should feel zero shame in renting it as well.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: Use the tools, don't waste a year reinventing them.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the one that's not theory.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is happening on phone lines right now.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: This past week, Rock, the AI out of Elon Musk's company, went live and signed real products that real people use.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: An investing app called eToro.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: 40 million users reading market sentiment in real time.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: A delivery company called GoPuff, building a whole cart from a normal back and forth conversation.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Voice and text, live customers this week.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: And in recent blind tests, when people heard an AI voice next to a real human voice, half of them could not tell which was which.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Half.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's 50%.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Let me say what that means at the kitchen table.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: The phone at your business, the one that rolls to voicemail after hours, the calls you miss on Saturday afternoon, the leads that go cold because nobody picked up in time.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: There's a voice now that answers every single one of those.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds like a person, books the appointment, follows up, never sleeps, never calls in sick, and half the people who call it will never know they're not talking to a human being.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's not coming, that's this week.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: This is the exact thing I actually deploy in my own businesses and helping other people do it in theirs.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: Real estate service companies, the after-hour lines that used to bleed money, now make it.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: And there's the story that flips the whole script.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: So Meta, the same kind of company running AI layoffs all over the industry, this week put up$150 million to train people for free, to weld, to run fiber, electrical, plumbing, skilled trades with a job guaranteed at the end of it.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: Building the data centers the AI actually runs inside.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Sit with that irony for just a second.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: The AI that has everybody terrified about the desk job just created a boom for trades.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: The safest job in the AI era might be the one that swings a wrench at the building where the AI lives.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: A month ago, graduating classes were booing the word AI right off the commencement stage.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: That was real.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: May kids spent four years at a mountain of debt watching the entire level jobs they trained for.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: Entry-level jobs they train for get handed to software.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: I understand the boo.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: I really do.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the thing about booing the tide.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: The tide doesn't hear you.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: A graduate who learns to deploy the AI beats the graduate who boos it.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: Why?
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, because they understand it and they're able to put it into play.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: They're not watching from the sidelines.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_00: They're actively losing and winning.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: And that loss equates to better wins over time.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: The welder meta just trained has more job security than half the people who laughed at him for skipping college.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: The whole world flipped out while everyone was still arguing about it.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: So where does this leave us right now?
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: June 11th.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know what is past the line.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody does.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Superintelligence might be everything for everyone, or it might be the end.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: And we will not know until we are already inside of it.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: It reminds me of the late 1960s.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I was born in 69, so I wasn't there.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: But a whole generation went to bed certain that the nukes were going to fall, certain it was over.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: And here we are, the nukes never flew.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: We lived, we built, we had kids who had kids of their own.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: This feels like that, except this time the bombs don't blow each other up.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: This time the thing we built might be the most useful tool in the history of people.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: And at least for right now, from where I'm standing or sitting, the humans are still the ones holding the controls.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: Question mark.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: That question marks the whole game.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: As long as it's still there, we have a move.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: And that move has not changed.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: There is a window, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, maybe a week, where a regular person, a regular business can go from doing the work to deploying the AI that does the work before everyone has the same tools and the edge starts to disappear.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: The people at the top, friends or rivals, in a tunnel or not, well, they're not thinking about you.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's not an insult, it's just true.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: They're building for the trillion dollar outcome.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: So we think about us.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: And if you own a business here in Santa Clarita, if you run a service company in LA County, if you're watching this on a break wondering if there's if any of this actually touches your life, it probably does, and there's a play.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: You can text AI to 661-400-1720.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'll show you exactly how I'm deploying this in my own business.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: Not theory, not hype, the deployed version running on real money.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the mission of this show hasn't just changed.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: It is AI for everyone, not just the labs, not for the billionaires in the room with no sign on the door, but everyone.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: The plumber, the veteran, the single mom, the barber, the agent, the nail person, the kid who just got bored, booed off his own future and doesn't know yet what he can.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Walk right back up there and take it.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to make it work for us anyway.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: How exciting is it to be alive right now.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: This is a daily download.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: June 11th.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: Be safe out there.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see you in the next one.