Rate Hike Roulette: The Fed, the AI Slowdown Debate, and What It Means for Your Portfolio

HCM Market Brief · Sep 17, 2026 · 34m

[00:53] Fed Meeting Preview Recorded the day before the Fed's rate decision. Doug and Dan discuss the market-implied 80–90% odds of a 25 bps hike, driven by bond market pressure (10-year near 5%, 30-year around 5.3%). Dan argues it's a likely policy error, since the Fed funds rate already sits above inflation and a small hike won't address the real driver — Middle East-linked oil prices. They compare the setup to 2022 (very different — inflation was near 8% then) and discuss "fast vs. slow" hiking cycle research from Ned Davis, concluding this looks more like a slow, one-off move than an…