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Master the Market: Using Economic Indicators for an Edge & Decoding the Impact of Deflation · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: What is an economic indicator that you look at to
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: give you a hedge in the market.
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: Ah, that is a good one. I look at M
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: two money supply.
• 1:10
  Speaker 5: Ooh, so money supply hasn't talked about enough, but it
• 1:13
  Speaker 5: shows you, like the flows of actually the actual money
• 1:18
  Speaker 5: in the market in different sectors. So when I saw
• 1:20
  Speaker 5: we had a dramatic zip around October November, I was like, okay,
• 1:24
  Speaker 5: maybe spending this getting a little bit softly. We got
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: to be careful not to put so much capital into
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: the market. And as this went up, it shows that
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: the market is stead of going back up and there's
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: a lot more safety. So like when you have technical
• 1:38
  Speaker 5: indicators like there's two hundred day moving average seventy two,
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: when you're looking at an economic indicator, you can see
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: the spending literally drop or go up. So in twenty nineteen,
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty, it was going up tremendously and everything was
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: on four fire, crypto housing, market stocks.
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: NFT's real estate.
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: But then as we had a halt, we saw that
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: the market saw the to collapse as So that's the
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: economic indicator that I'd like to use to get a
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: great gauge on the market.
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: That's a good one. I always thinking about the technical ones.
• 2:05
  Speaker 6: For the average person who's listening, I could begin moving
• 2:07
  Speaker 6: averages are good, Yeah, new highs, new lows. What do
• 2:09
  Speaker 6: you think about CPI? I know every time you watch,
• 2:13
  Speaker 6: you watch CNBC, you watch any these business shows. They
• 2:15
  Speaker 6: talk about the importance of CPI to consumer price index,
• 2:18
  Speaker 6: how much we're spending, how much it costs for the
• 2:20
  Speaker 6: things that we're spending as an economic factor to see
• 2:23
  Speaker 6: where the money's going and inflation coming down.
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: It takes a lot of curs to do so because
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: there could be a lot of losses there. But trading
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: a CPR report, if you can get to move right,
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: you can make a ton of money. Shot to my gotpe,
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: like two weeks ago he called a move and I
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: want to tell I mean the dollar round, but I
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: mean he probably caught like one hundred and twenty percent
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: gainer in one day in less than like ten fifteen minutes.
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: So like once you know what the numbers are going
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: to be, you can plan in your favorite You can
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: definitely end up making a lot of money as a result.
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: Trading has considerable risk, absolutely, Police and social advisor always
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: say take three hundred practice trades before you go live to.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: Mitigate any risk.
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: But that that report is very key for sure, non
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: far and payroll is another one that's important as.
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: Well, So.
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: Like percentage wise, how much is that in percent with
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: making a decision whether you should put money to the
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: stock market or not.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: M two money supply Yeah, for me, probably thirty forty
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: percent because it's a bigger macro indicator. Likes that you
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: have smaller reports that are key. But what I'm looking at, like,
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: I would say top two would be like GDP growth
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: or decline, and then M two money supply. That's a
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: shorter term indicator to look at, but it definitely has
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: an impact on how the market is you. I would
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: challenge everyone to go look at like a ten year
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: chart of the M two money supply, see the ebbs
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: and flows, and see when M two money supply dips,
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: does the market dip with the in correlation? And when
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: it goes up does the market go up in correlation.
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: It's really fascinating to see those two pair together.
• 3:54
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, if I'm an investor, I'm a trader,
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: I'm just adding that tool to my belt. You have to, right, So,
• 3:59
  Speaker 6: if I didn't know about the M two money supply,
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: I add that to looking at the CPI I might
• 4:04
  Speaker 6: add that to looking at the unemployment data. Yep, so
• 4:06
  Speaker 6: I get a pretty good synopsis of what the economy
• 4:09
  Speaker 6: is looking like. Sometimes when you look at the charts
• 4:11
  Speaker 6: and you're looking at it doesn't give you a fear
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: synopsis of what's really happening.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: Right, especially over the past month and two moving.
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: Right, we've seen like the top nine just push the market,
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: push the brcket, push the market.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: It kind of feels like the whole market is moving,
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: but it's not.
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: It's kind of like Kyrie's lay package, like he can
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: finish with the left, finished with the right. Like the
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: more tools you have in your back. Of course, interest
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: rates are the most important. So if it's like creates
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: market is going to fall apart if they pause, that's
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: a sign for like a little bit of optimism. If
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: they cut rates too fast, that it'll lead to deflation.
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: But you want to have all these tools in your
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: arsenal to have the real information as banks, hedge funds
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: are looking at and countries and looking at to make
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: economic decisions.
• 4:49
  Speaker 6: And we saw a pause, not a freeze, but a pause.
• 4:51
  Speaker 6: We didn't even have a conversation, but that was your
• 4:53
  Speaker 6: thoughts though, like thank god, right, so it's like do
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: we slow down? And people looking at it from a
• 4:59
  Speaker 6: standpoint where it's like, okay, they're not going to raise
• 5:01
  Speaker 6: rates again, even though they said that another two quarters
• 5:04
  Speaker 6: might happen throughout the course of the year, but that
• 5:06
  Speaker 6: looks like it might be the ceiling for it.
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I believe that rates again, But the pausing of
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: the interest rates hike was key because if they continue
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: to raise, I think it would drain all optimism out
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: of the market, because who actually eventually end up with
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: interest rates being like seven and a quarter percent?
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: It would be too high.
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: Like particularly even when I'm hearing some mortgage rates that
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: people have now compared to just two years ago, I'm like,
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: some people are paying double for the same house if
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: they have like a six fifty credit score. Now it
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: is insane. So, like, those interest rates are very key.
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: But I'm glad that they did pause. I can't reads
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: it's funny now Camron and makes it is it.
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: Is a different pause.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So let's talk about Elon Musk stated that deflation
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: is coming. What is deflation? And do you believe this
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: will happen soon? So we talked a lot about inflation.
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: So I you know, anybody that you probably can guess
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: what deflation is if you don't.
• 6:04
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• 7:55
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: are here illegally your next you will be fined nearly
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: border and families.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Will be protected. Sponsored by the United States Department of
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Homeland Security.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: Know what deflation is is the opposite of inflation. But
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: yet talk about deflation and if you think that that's
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: coming soon.
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: You want to take it first, I'll lead. Yeah, Deflation
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: is just advanced price declines. F Inflations is when prices
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: are going up. Deflations are advanced price declines. You really
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: want everything to remain stable? Do I think it will come?
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: I don't.
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure yet, But I will say with all
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: the information that Elon has and how focused he's been,
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: I'm sure he is seeing something. And I think the
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: overall point that he's making And I never will want
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: a pile seat by any chance.
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: I would never want the job.
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: But I think what Elon is alluding to is like
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: interest rates got hyped up a little bit too fast,
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: and what if they start cutting we'll have the inverse
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: issue and when we have too much money supply, like
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: everything the value of everything went up too fast and
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: now they're trying to correct it. And like it's the
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: same thing when you're driving a car. If you correct
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: too quickly, that is what can ultimately cause an accident.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: So I think we just need to have things stable.
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: Deflation maybe could come and maybe a year, but I
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: hope it doesn't.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the when we talk about having a
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: soft landing.
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: Yes, this is exactly what they're talking about, right, Like
• 10:05
  Speaker 6: we figured out that zero percent interest rates don't work, right,
• 10:08
  Speaker 6: but you raise them and like you said, we could
• 10:10
  Speaker 6: get up to six percent at at a certain point,
• 10:14
  Speaker 6: but where do we want to land right, And this
• 10:16
  Speaker 6: talks that, hey, we need to get it down to
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: two percent. Well, if we're at six, how do we
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: get there safely? How do we safely get down to two?
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: And so it becomes a fine balance. And again it
• 10:28
  Speaker 6: sounds crazy, but like people are going to have to
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: lose jobs, right because you got to have the unemployment
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: rate go up, which is like for the average person,
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: it's going to affect you, it is, right, And so
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: that's why you try to make this as soft as
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: possible quote unquote the soft landing, so that it's a
• 10:43
  Speaker 6: steady process. It's stabilized to a point where it's like, right,
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: this isn't a harsh effect. Right, We're just not going
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: to turn this thing upside down palls, but we're going
• 10:52
  Speaker 6: to figure out a way to make sure that the
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: economy stays stable. Right, people still can be employed, and
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: it doesn't go back to all right, well we raised it,
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: we've got it lowered, this isn't working.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: We got to hike him again.
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think it's really tough to have a
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: soft landing with our transparency, Like they've been clear on
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: what they want to do, but it doesn't seem confident
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: in any of the decisions they want to make. Like
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: one week it feels like we're going to raise rates
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: for the next two years. Then the pushback isn't positive,
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: and then they change tune a little bit. I think
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: if they just honestly said, hey, here's what the plan is.
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: We'll have rough eighteen months or two years, but for
• 11:25
  Speaker 5: the next ten years it's will be better, I think
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: most business owners and governments could handle that. It's the
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: indecision that really leads to a lot of the Confederate part.
• 11:34
  Speaker 6: Of it was, you know, even in twenty twenty two,
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: when you know, we saw that their rates were going
• 11:39
  Speaker 6: to be raising throughout the next six to eight months,
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: it was like, this is going to stop in March,
• 11:43
  Speaker 6: and here we are in June and this and there
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: might be two more. I feel like the market doesn't believe. Yes,
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: I don't saying anymore. Right, there's not like that firm confidence,
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: like ah, he's saying it, but it alls did. Then
• 11:55
  Speaker 6: why not just you know, have the raid hike in June.
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: Why not have it in a few weeks here coming
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: in July. Why not just have it consistently rather than
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: pause it and say, all right, we're seeing the numbers
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: cool down to a pace that we like, all right,
• 12:09
  Speaker 6: but we still have an option, right. I think he's
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: just leaving it as a variable option just in the
• 12:13
  Speaker 6: event that the numbers start peeking back to a point
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: that is unsatisfactory to him. So it's like, all right,
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: we'll raise it because I told you I would, And
• 12:20
  Speaker 6: I don't.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: Think he's doing a bad job. But I think we
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: all knowing being the leader, you have to have a
• 12:25
  Speaker 5: very clear and firm path on what you're going to
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: like blaze the trail. We've seen it with Alan Greenspan
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: a little bit with Bernek. I think we need that
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: from him, but I mean, it's one of the most
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: difficult jobs on earth to correct, and because ideally zero
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: interest rate environment is great for the short term, but
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: it hurts us long term. And now he's in a
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: driver's seat, after all, this zuberance has been rushing around
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: for fifteen years, and now you have to be the
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: one to say, hey, no more fun, no more parties,
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: like we're on financial punishment right now.
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: That's a tough job to have.
• 12:55
  Speaker 6: So the interesting part is that as those rates start
• 12:58
  Speaker 6: to come down, you think which type of companies benefit
• 13:02
  Speaker 6: the most of that?
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: Tech for sure, right right, fintech, most finance companies that
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: were like running thin on margin, those will come back.
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: Maybe automotive will come back as a result, but who
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: knows if it would be short lived.
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: My first thought was the tech sector.
• 13:17
  Speaker 6: It's like, all right, the price to do business obviously
• 13:20
  Speaker 6: goes down, infrastructure goes down, logistics goes down.
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: That helps it the economy.
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: Especially from the you know when we talk about what's
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: leading it tech and so those companies that we talk about,
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: those top nine that we continuously I know you say
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: Apple and Microsoft.
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: I mean that's a great benefit a small cap. Some
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: of the ross RUSS two thousand will go because.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: My graduates from my school being forced back drop b drop,
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: Mike drop back drop drop.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from guatem charged with raping a child
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,