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Mariners/Mets MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Saturday 8/16/25 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
0:06
Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:12
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:15
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
0:18
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:20
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
0:25
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
0:28
Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
0:34
Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
0:37
Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
0:41
Speaker 1: browins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
0:44
Speaker 1: with the Bruins archhape? Is that what it is? I
0:47
Speaker 1: don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think who
0:50
Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
0:53
Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
0:56
Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly
0:59
Speaker 1: have with you, as I always am until I die,
1:03
Speaker 1: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did
1:07
Speaker 1: not go well for me. Oh and five the worst
1:10
Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
1:13
Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:15
Speaker 1: To the slumps, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
1:21
Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
1:25
Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
1:33
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you better off dead. Saturday,
1:37
Speaker 1: August sixteenth, definitely thinking about up potentially ending it all.
1:40
Speaker 1: After yesterday. Yesterday it looked like it was gonna be
1:44
Speaker 1: a two in one day that it wounded to be
1:47
Speaker 1: one to tune it almost wounded being oh and three,
1:49
Speaker 1: I mean it was. It was rough out there, man,
1:52
Speaker 1: I mean, we took the loss on Arizona Colorado. I
1:54
Speaker 1: will never give out another over in Corus Field ever. Again.
1:58
Speaker 1: Can't believe that, man, I mean, it was another situation.
2:01
Speaker 1: I mean, there were some hits in that game, maybe
2:03
Speaker 1: not as many as the previous game, but that game
2:05
Speaker 1: was fairly high scoring. Early on. It was like a
2:08
Speaker 1: three to two game in the fourth inning or something
2:10
Speaker 1: like that, so like, all right, this is trending decently
2:13
Speaker 1: well here. And then the bullpens basically didn't give up
2:15
Speaker 1: much of anything in the game and it wound up
2:17
Speaker 1: being a four to three final. I think, like, what
2:20
Speaker 1: the hell, dude, between those two teams in quartersfield, those
2:23
Speaker 1: two bullpens. Yeah, okay. And then speaking of bullpens, Texas Rangers.
2:28
Speaker 1: If we'd gone first five with the Texas Rangers, that
2:31
Speaker 1: would have been a win. They were winning the entire
2:33
Speaker 1: game basically, they scored in the second inning, and then
2:35
Speaker 1: from then on they were leading the game until the
2:38
Speaker 1: bottom of the eighth. They had the lead that entire time.
2:41
Speaker 1: They were winning the end of five. So I got
2:43
Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup right, But I'm thinking Texas they're rested,
2:46
Speaker 1: they didn't play the prior day in Toronto. Did Texas
2:49
Speaker 1: has the better bullpen? Oh? Yeah? And then what happens.
2:53
Speaker 1: Texas lets the three to nothing lead slip to three
2:56
Speaker 1: to two I think in the bottom of the six
2:57
Speaker 1: maybe or something like that. They pad the lead again,
3:00
Speaker 1: so they're up five to two in the bottom of
3:02
Speaker 1: the eighth, and then their bullpen completely implodes. It gives
3:05
Speaker 1: up four runs in the bottom of the eighth and
3:06
Speaker 1: they lose six to five. Absolutely unbelievable. That should not
3:11
Speaker 1: have been a loss. That was absolute bullshit. And then
3:14
Speaker 1: we did get the win on the Seattle lost Storm
3:16
Speaker 1: in the WNBA. So my WNBA still has been pretty
3:20
Speaker 1: good this season, and I'm gonna give another WNBA play
3:23
Speaker 1: out today. But the Seattle Storm, they almost blew it
3:26
Speaker 1: to They're winning like that entire game. They're up double
3:28
Speaker 1: digits I think in the second half. I'm like, all right,
3:30
Speaker 1: they're gonna win this game. And then it came down
3:33
Speaker 1: to the final minutes. All of a sudden, I'm looking
3:34
Speaker 1: at the score and it's like tied. I'm like, what
3:36
Speaker 1: the fuck happened in this game? But they still wound
3:39
Speaker 1: up winning I think by two, so that was a winner.
3:41
Speaker 1: They got the outright win as an underdog. So I
3:43
Speaker 1: gave you a WNBA winner yesterday. We'll move on to
3:47
Speaker 1: today now, man, I mean it, this is just sometimes
3:50
Speaker 1: the way that it is. I think I should have
3:52
Speaker 1: been two and one yesterday. We'll go with the run down.
3:54
Speaker 1: Here we do more WNBA, like I said, and I'm
3:57
Speaker 1: gonna give out a play in the WNBA. Oh, let
3:58
Speaker 1: me share my screen. That would help if I did that, right.
4:02
Speaker 1: This is actually as big as a game could be
4:04
Speaker 1: in the WNBA. Basically the top team in the East
4:08
Speaker 1: essentially against the top team in the West, although I
4:10
Speaker 1: don't know if the Liberty are actually ahead in the
4:12
Speaker 1: East now. I think they are again because the Seattle
4:16
Speaker 1: storm last night for US dropped the Atlanta dream. But
4:21
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play in the New York
4:22
Speaker 1: Liberty here man, plus the one and a half, the
4:24
Speaker 1: lines dropped from two and a half to one and
4:26
Speaker 1: a half, so I know we lost out on a
4:28
Speaker 1: little bit of value there. I still think it's fine.
4:30
Speaker 1: I think the Liberty are finally gonna get a win
4:32
Speaker 1: here man. I mean Minnesota. They've had a chip on
4:35
Speaker 1: their back when playing New York because this was the
4:37
Speaker 1: finals matchup last year in New York won, so Minnesota
4:41
Speaker 1: they came out with revenge on their mind. And the
4:43
Speaker 1: first time they played New York this year was in
4:44
Speaker 1: this arena at Minnesota. Minnesota won that game, and by
4:48
Speaker 1: the way, that started this win streak they've been on
4:51
Speaker 1: which they've booked. Ended this win streak with both wins
4:55
Speaker 1: against New York as they just went into New York
4:57
Speaker 1: in their last game and they beat the Liberty by
5:00
Speaker 1: double digits on the road. Man, So I think the
5:03
Speaker 1: revenge factor is now shifting to the Liberty side here. Man,
5:07
Speaker 1: this was the last game Minnesota played Minnesota. They might
5:10
Speaker 1: not even take the Liberty seriously now because Minnesota they
5:13
Speaker 1: just clinched a playoff spot. They're the first team to
5:16
Speaker 1: clinch a playoff spot. They have a huge lead in
5:18
Speaker 1: the West right now, so I actually think Minnesota may
5:21
Speaker 1: kind of take the foot off the gas a little
5:24
Speaker 1: bit here this game. There were some reasons to say
5:28
Speaker 1: this game is a little bit of an outlier, as
5:30
Speaker 1: Minnesota did sh you forty seven point six percent for
5:33
Speaker 1: three point range, which does not usually happen, and the
5:36
Speaker 1: Liberty actually out rebounded them. But the Liberty, despite being
5:39
Speaker 1: at home, got absolutely destroyed in the turnover battle. They
5:43
Speaker 1: had twenty turnovers, which is very very much an outlier
5:47
Speaker 1: I would say for a home team, even though the
5:48
Speaker 1: WNBA does have a lot of turnovers, but that's still
5:52
Speaker 1: a really high number. So I think there are some
5:53
Speaker 1: reasons why we should expect the Liberty to play better here.
5:56
Speaker 1: I think they should be the team that has the
5:58
Speaker 1: adjustments to make here against Minnesota. I think this game
6:01
Speaker 1: had some statistical outliers here, and the Liberty I think
6:05
Speaker 1: They're gonna come with motivation here. Man not only because
6:08
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a double revenge spot. Now. Liberty were
6:11
Speaker 1: also leading for most of the first half of that game,
6:13
Speaker 1: by the way, so they imploded in the second half,
6:16
Speaker 1: but the Liberty will have a little bit of revenge
6:17
Speaker 1: on their mind. Nown The Liberty need this game more
6:19
Speaker 1: as far as positioning, because they're like within a half
6:22
Speaker 1: a game of the Atlanta Dream in the East, so
6:24
Speaker 1: they have a little bit more to play for here. Minnesota, Yeah,
6:28
Speaker 1: they're rested. They're way more rested than New York here.
6:30
Speaker 1: So people might say, well, then wouldn't you want Minnesota
6:33
Speaker 1: because they have like a ton of days of rest,
6:35
Speaker 1: right because their last game was six days ago at
6:37
Speaker 1: New York. I'm gonna say no, because at some point
6:41
Speaker 1: this amount of rest turns into rust man like, there's
6:43
Speaker 1: such a thing as too much rest, and I think
6:45
Speaker 1: that might be what's gonna happen here. And Minnesota just
6:48
Speaker 1: beat the Liberty again, the team that beat them in
6:50
Speaker 1: the finals last year. They're probably really ride and high.
6:53
Speaker 1: Now they've had a bunch of days off, they just
6:55
Speaker 1: clinched a playoff spot. They're probably thinking, we're good right now, baby,
6:59
Speaker 1: we have an eight game lead in the West. This
7:02
Speaker 1: game I think matters a lot less to Minnesota at
7:04
Speaker 1: this point, when you have that much rest and you're
7:06
Speaker 1: on a five game win streak like Minnesota was, I
7:09
Speaker 1: think that rest can serve as a momentum stopper. Like
7:12
Speaker 1: I talk about that with like buys in the NFL.
7:15
Speaker 1: I think that their momentum could be really really halted
7:17
Speaker 1: by having way too many days off. So I think
7:19
Speaker 1: that's a problem the Liberty. Yes, I know they're playing
7:22
Speaker 1: a third straight road game, and they did lose their
7:25
Speaker 1: last game to Las Vegas, so they are having to travel.
7:28
Speaker 1: I get that, but they have had two days off now,
7:30
Speaker 1: so I think that's a little bit better momentum wise
7:33
Speaker 1: for them. They did face a rough stretch where they
7:35
Speaker 1: played four games in a span of six days here,
7:38
Speaker 1: all in different cities, and lost a couple of those,
7:40
Speaker 1: including that one to Minnesota earlier, which was actually at
7:44
Speaker 1: home for New York. But now that they've been on
7:47
Speaker 1: the West Coast now they're coming back, they've had a
7:48
Speaker 1: couple of days off here, they haven't played since Wednesdays,
7:51
Speaker 1: so they have a more proper amount of rest. I
7:54
Speaker 1: would say to try to bounce back from this. I
7:55
Speaker 1: do expect the Liberty to show up in this game.
7:58
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm going, Man plus one and a half.
8:01
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a WNBA played for me there. WNBA
8:04
Speaker 1: has been decent for me. I do think it's a
8:06
Speaker 1: pretty beatable sport. So that's where we're going with that one.
8:09
Speaker 1: Let's go to Major League Baseball here, and I will
8:12
Speaker 1: talk about the NFL preseason at the end of the show,
8:15
Speaker 1: even though I know the preseason. Yeah, I mean, we
8:20
Speaker 1: could have a bunch of winners. If I was actually
8:22
Speaker 1: giving up plays on all the team totals that I've
8:24
Speaker 1: mentioned for the NFL preason, I think we'd be like
8:27
Speaker 1: six and zero in those right now. Maybe I should
8:30
Speaker 1: just start being an actual preseason better, which I never
8:32
Speaker 1: really have been. I just don't put like a ton
8:36
Speaker 1: of time into the preseason. I think it's too much chaos.
8:38
Speaker 1: But I know there are betters that make a lot
8:40
Speaker 1: of money doing it, but that's not me. But maybe
8:43
Speaker 1: it should become me. I am gonna have two baseball players.
8:46
Speaker 1: We can get into it here. Pittsburgh at the Cubs
8:49
Speaker 1: is the first game up. This is the earliest game
8:51
Speaker 1: at two twenty pm Eastern. More afternoon baseball in Chicago
8:56
Speaker 1: here at Wrigley, although we have more afternoon baseball because
8:58
Speaker 1: it's Saturday. The Cubs actually lost yesterday to Pittsburgh, and
9:02
Speaker 1: I pointed out that that was kind of a bad
9:04
Speaker 1: spot for the Cubs because they were returning home from
9:07
Speaker 1: a road trip, which that can tend to distract you
9:09
Speaker 1: a little bit. So I think they're gonna come out
9:11
Speaker 1: playing a lot better in this next game here. Man,
9:14
Speaker 1: they still have to worry about making the playoffs at
9:16
Speaker 1: this point. I know Milwaukee has a massive lead now
9:19
Speaker 1: because of how hot they've ben. Cubs got to get
9:21
Speaker 1: a win here, and I think when you return home
9:23
Speaker 1: you have a distracted spot, you play poorly, you tend
9:26
Speaker 1: to bounce back from that in a big way. And
9:28
Speaker 1: the Cubs they're going to be a big favorite in
9:30
Speaker 1: this game. Though the Cubs do have the better bullpen
9:33
Speaker 1: at this point over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cubs have a
9:36
Speaker 1: way better offense too. We saw four relievers enter the
9:39
Speaker 1: game for Chicago yesterday, three for Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh was
9:43
Speaker 1: off or they didn't use any of their relievers at
9:45
Speaker 1: least today before that either, So Pittsburgh maybe has a
9:48
Speaker 1: slight bullpen rest advantage, but Chicago's been kind of keeping
9:52
Speaker 1: their bullpen at like a moderate amount of rest, which
9:55
Speaker 1: isn't really that bad either, So I still think maybe
9:58
Speaker 1: Chicago does solve the bullpen edge starting pitching wise, I
10:01
Speaker 1: think you have to give that edge to the Cubs
10:02
Speaker 1: as well. Mike Burrow's very young guy. I think he's
10:06
Speaker 1: a rookie for Pittsburgh here. His season has been pretty
10:09
Speaker 1: much a roller coaster. Four point six six ERA one
10:13
Speaker 1: point two to six whip isn't too bad. He's basically
10:16
Speaker 1: the same home and away ERA wise. This month, he's
10:19
Speaker 1: struggled though he's allowed four more and runs of both starts.
10:22
Speaker 1: Failed to go five innings against the Giants, allowing six
10:25
Speaker 1: earned runs, and then allowed four against Ccinnati, although he
10:28
Speaker 1: did have a six to one strike a walk ratio
10:30
Speaker 1: in that one, so he did bounce back a little
10:33
Speaker 1: bit in a way, and that start was better than
10:34
Speaker 1: his starting at San Francisco, where he walked three guys,
10:37
Speaker 1: which I think, unfortunately was an underplay for me. That
10:40
Speaker 1: didn't that did not hit. But Burrows, yeah, I mean
10:44
Speaker 1: three of his last four starts have been good, though,
10:46
Speaker 1: like he said, one walk apiece in each of them,
10:48
Speaker 1: and he's had a really high strike out rate, a
10:50
Speaker 1: pretty high strike out rate, and those eighteen to three
10:53
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio if you exclude that Giants start,
10:56
Speaker 1: so he isn't really pitching that terribly against the Cubs.
10:59
Speaker 1: Is numbers are okay, a small twenty one at bat
11:02
Speaker 1: sample size, eight to one strike a walk ratio. They
11:05
Speaker 1: don't have any extra base hits off him, so even
11:07
Speaker 1: though they have a two eighty six average, a six
11:09
Speaker 1: h four ohps is pretty low. So Burrows actually has
11:12
Speaker 1: pitched fairly well against the Cubs, even though now they've
11:15
Speaker 1: seen him, so the Cubs might hit a little bit
11:17
Speaker 1: better against In this timeout, Chotey Minaga will be pitching
11:20
Speaker 1: for the Cubs. I mean, he's got good numbers this
11:22
Speaker 1: year three point one to nine ERA, point nine to
11:25
Speaker 1: seven WHIP. He is a little bit worse at home
11:27
Speaker 1: with a three point three to two ERA, but he's
11:30
Speaker 1: in pretty good form again here after he did have
11:33
Speaker 1: a little bit of a rough stretch. He had one
11:35
Speaker 1: really bad start against the White Sox, which didn't really
11:37
Speaker 1: make a whole lot of sense. But even including that start,
11:41
Speaker 1: going all the way back through that start, he hasn't
11:43
Speaker 1: walked anybody, and he has a twenty six to zero
11:47
Speaker 1: strike a walk raised over that span, I think is
11:49
Speaker 1: what that is this month, sixteen to zero with a
11:51
Speaker 1: two point seven to seven ERA. He's pitching well right now, man,
11:56
Speaker 1: and he's gone at least six innings and both starts
11:58
Speaker 1: this month, so he is in good. He's looking pretty good,
12:01
Speaker 1: and he's facing a really weak Pittsburgh lineup here, and
12:03
Speaker 1: he's done well against them in the past forty six
12:06
Speaker 1: at bats, nine strikeouts, two walks, two thirty nine batting
12:09
Speaker 1: average five thirty two ops. So this game, I think
12:13
Speaker 1: both starting pitchers look like they're pretty good to go
12:15
Speaker 1: in this one. The bullpens maybe good enough that you
12:19
Speaker 1: want to keep them in this equation. But I think
12:21
Speaker 1: the way you look at this game, because I don't
12:22
Speaker 1: think you could possibly play the Cubs at a minus
12:24
Speaker 1: two hundred line like this will really even figure out
12:27
Speaker 1: a way to play the Cubs at all, I think
12:28
Speaker 1: an under maybe is the best way to play this game.
12:31
Speaker 1: The total is down from nine to eight and a half.
12:33
Speaker 1: With a Wriglely total of nine, you kind of know
12:35
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that the win might be an issue.
12:37
Speaker 1: It might mean the wins blowing out a little bit
12:39
Speaker 1: at Wrigley because it was blowing in. You probably see
12:41
Speaker 1: a much lower total here. But the starting pitchers look
12:44
Speaker 1: pretty good in this one. If you want to exclude
12:46
Speaker 1: the bullpens, you could go with the first five under
12:48
Speaker 1: as well. Fifty six percent tickets on the over, sixty
12:51
Speaker 1: percent of the cash though on the under, and that
12:53
Speaker 1: total has dropped from that key number nine. It's gone
12:56
Speaker 1: through the nine to eight and a half juice to
12:57
Speaker 1: the over. I think if you still see a nine
13:00
Speaker 1: there for the full game, because that is a key number.
13:02
Speaker 1: If you can get under nine up to about minus
13:05
Speaker 1: one twenty, that might be the way to play this.
13:07
Speaker 1: And if not, you can go like under four and
13:09
Speaker 1: a half or something in the first five. I don't
13:12
Speaker 1: mind that either, because they do see reasons that both
13:14
Speaker 1: starting pitchers might actually pitch pretty well in that one.
13:17
Speaker 1: Texas Toronto is gonna be one of my two plays,
13:19
Speaker 1: so I'll skip that for now. Philly at Washington, this
13:23
Speaker 1: is this pitching matchup. Man, this is a weird one.
13:28
Speaker 1: Washington took the loss yesterday. Philly beat them yesterday in
13:31
Speaker 1: the second game this year. Is after Washington beat them
13:34
Speaker 1: in the first game, so the teams will split the
13:36
Speaker 1: first two games of this Yeries. So far, we have
13:39
Speaker 1: two bullpens that aren't very good, but we know Washington's
13:42
Speaker 1: is one of the absolute worst, so Washington does have
13:44
Speaker 1: the worst bullpen. Both bullpens saw a decent amount of
13:47
Speaker 1: usage yesterday. Philly slightly more usage, but I think you
13:51
Speaker 1: still have to give Philly a little bit of a
13:52
Speaker 1: bullpen edge here. Philly definitely has an offensive edge. Starting
13:56
Speaker 1: pitching is a little bit questionable, man. I don't know
13:59
Speaker 1: how to re into which one of these pitchers I
14:02
Speaker 1: think might be the better one. Taiwan Walker is pitching
14:04
Speaker 1: for the Phillies. He's really hard to gauge, man. I mean,
14:07
Speaker 1: his overall numbers are not bad, three point three to NINETYRA,
14:11
Speaker 1: one point two nine WHIP. He's been better on the
14:14
Speaker 1: road as well, with a two point six one ERA,
14:16
Speaker 1: but he was not going deep into his outings, man.
14:18
Speaker 1: He was having a lot of shortened outings for a while.
14:22
Speaker 1: He might have been coming out of the bullpen at
14:23
Speaker 1: various points this year too. And then he's re entered
14:26
Speaker 1: the starting rotation. Although since he's been in there he's
14:28
Speaker 1: been serviceable. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in
14:31
Speaker 1: any of his outings going all the way back to
14:34
Speaker 1: like early in the season. Really, he hasn't allowed four
14:37
Speaker 1: any more than four all season actually, so he's somehow
14:40
Speaker 1: he's serviceable, even though he doesn't come out to strike
14:43
Speaker 1: out a lot of guys. I don't like his walk
14:44
Speaker 1: numbers that much either, But he's actually kind of ramped
14:47
Speaker 1: it up a little bit further. And this month he's
14:49
Speaker 1: gone twelve innings six innings in each start, only only
14:52
Speaker 1: one run total, with six strikeouts and only one walk
14:55
Speaker 1: against Baltimore, who's not a good offense. But then at Cincinnati,
14:59
Speaker 1: which is it's not an easy place to pitch, So
15:02
Speaker 1: Walker actually is pitching a little bit better right now.
15:05
Speaker 1: And against Washington, I mean, they're not a very good offense,
15:08
Speaker 1: particularly at home, they're not that good, and Walker has
15:10
Speaker 1: been pretty decent against them. In fifty eight at bats,
15:13
Speaker 1: they only have nine hits off him, a nine to
15:15
Speaker 1: nine strike aut walk ratio isn't very good, but one
15:18
Speaker 1: fifty five average and five to ten ops. So Walker
15:21
Speaker 1: has actually stifled the Washington bats when he's faced them.
15:25
Speaker 1: Washington has kde Cabali pitching was a pretty young guy
15:28
Speaker 1: who I think maybe had a delayed start to his
15:31
Speaker 1: major league career, maybe due to injuries or something. He
15:34
Speaker 1: pitched in twenty twenty two and then he wasn't in
15:36
Speaker 1: the majors again until this year. Had a really rough
15:39
Speaker 1: outing in twenty twenty two and his only major league
15:41
Speaker 1: outing until this year. This year, he's been a little
15:44
Speaker 1: bit better than that. He's made two starts this year,
15:47
Speaker 1: one against the A's or he went four to third,
15:49
Speaker 1: didn't allow any runs in that one, had six strikeouts
15:53
Speaker 1: in one walks. That was a pretty promising start. And
15:55
Speaker 1: then he did go five innings last time out, but
15:58
Speaker 1: he gave up four runs and walked through guys and
16:00
Speaker 1: give up seven hits against Kansas City, and we know
16:03
Speaker 1: Kansas City is not a good lineupan that was at
16:05
Speaker 1: Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City, which is a pretty pitcher
16:08
Speaker 1: friendly ballpark. So that's not as good of a sign
16:11
Speaker 1: as Cavali kind of took a step back in that out,
16:13
Speaker 1: and he wasn't very good in that one, a lot
16:15
Speaker 1: worse than I thought he would be. Philly has never
16:18
Speaker 1: seen him before, but Philly is a big time step
16:21
Speaker 1: up in class offensively, from what he saw with Kansas City,
16:24
Speaker 1: So it's very difficult to gauge we're gonna get out
16:27
Speaker 1: of Cavali here, although if you think that he will
16:29
Speaker 1: pitch well again, there's that unfamiliarity aspect going on that
16:33
Speaker 1: would be maybe an argument for like an under in
16:35
Speaker 1: this game. But the total has gone up from nine
16:37
Speaker 1: to a half to ten seventy seven percent to takets
16:39
Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the catch on the over. When
16:41
Speaker 1: I just saw Taiwan Walker pitching, I mean, my first
16:44
Speaker 1: instinct is not an under, and I see him pitching,
16:47
Speaker 1: That's just the way that it is. And these two bullpens,
16:51
Speaker 1: I mean, these bullpens are so bad that if you
16:53
Speaker 1: took the under, you would have to go first five innings.
16:55
Speaker 1: But I don't think we want to do that. Because
16:57
Speaker 1: a total of ten in a game that's not at
16:59
Speaker 1: either or Field or that as Sacramento Stadium, the oddsmakers
17:04
Speaker 1: are really telling you they think this is probably gonna
17:06
Speaker 1: be a high scoring game. As far as the side,
17:08
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is not a heavy favorite. They're actually down for
17:10
Speaker 1: minus one forty seven to minus one thirty three, so
17:13
Speaker 1: it almost looks too easy to take Philly who's the
17:16
Speaker 1: better team here. Philly is the team with something to
17:18
Speaker 1: play for, by the way, as was the case with
17:20
Speaker 1: the Cubs in their game, they're playing for playoff positioning.
17:24
Speaker 1: But of course I think Pittsburgh and Washington have their
17:27
Speaker 1: own motivation because they want to spoil the season, spoil
17:30
Speaker 1: the party for their divisional foes. Here. Philly eighty tickets,
17:34
Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the cash on that But because
17:36
Speaker 1: of that money line drop, I think it's more likely
17:39
Speaker 1: that Philly is like a public road favorite here with
17:42
Speaker 1: money actually kind of coming in against them. So I
17:44
Speaker 1: would not really want to try to play Philly in
17:46
Speaker 1: that one. It just it looks way too easy to
17:48
Speaker 1: do it. I don't I don't think that's the way
17:49
Speaker 1: to go. Charles. What's up man, Thanks for hanging out.
17:53
Speaker 1: Let's go to what do we have up next? Here?
17:57
Speaker 1: My Boston Red Sox against Miami. The Red Sox won
18:00
Speaker 1: two to one last night and ten innings, and I
18:03
Speaker 1: had said both teams were in a bad spot yesterday's
18:05
Speaker 1: Miami was not rested. The Red Sox are coming back
18:08
Speaker 1: from a road trip that took them across the country.
18:11
Speaker 1: Red Sox were able to get it done. Red Sox
18:14
Speaker 1: have the better offense here, they have a better bullpen here.
18:17
Speaker 1: On the surface, they have the better starting pitcher as well.
18:20
Speaker 1: So the Red Sox are gonna be a big favorite here.
18:22
Speaker 1: But is the line justified as high as it is,
18:26
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure. Man cal Kwantrill is pitching for Miami,
18:29
Speaker 1: and on the surface, yeah, I mean his numbers are
18:31
Speaker 1: pretty bad. Five point zero nine ERA, one point three
18:34
Speaker 1: to five whip, He's not very good. He's pretty much
18:37
Speaker 1: similar home in Away, so splits aren't really crazy one
18:41
Speaker 1: way or the other. Hasn't really been good this month either,
18:44
Speaker 1: with an eight point six four ERA. He's failed to
18:46
Speaker 1: go five innings and either start, so he's not really
18:48
Speaker 1: going deep into outings. He has a three to three
18:51
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio that's all pretty bad. Unfortunately, went
18:54
Speaker 1: with an over in his last outing, and he somehow
18:56
Speaker 1: got out of that Atlanta game along one in run
18:59
Speaker 1: of four innings and then the bullpen the bullbend did
19:02
Speaker 1: blow it, but it was mostly Miami's hitting that let
19:05
Speaker 1: me down in that game and the woman umpire. Basically,
19:09
Speaker 1: I think having the hots for Joey Wentz for Atlanta
19:12
Speaker 1: and giving him all the giving him all the calls there,
19:16
Speaker 1: including the first call of the game, which was a
19:18
Speaker 1: pitch way outside and she called it a strike or
19:20
Speaker 1: was inside. I think I forget whatever it was. It
19:23
Speaker 1: was ridiculous anyway, and both of those pitchers and pitching today,
19:27
Speaker 1: by the way, But I still don't trust cal Quantrill.
19:29
Speaker 1: I mean, he doesn't go deep into games. His overall
19:31
Speaker 1: numbers tell you he's not really that good, hasn't been
19:34
Speaker 1: in the greatest form this month, but the Red Sox
19:37
Speaker 1: actually haven't hit him well at all. And fifty nine
19:39
Speaker 1: at bats only nine hits, eighteen strikeouts and no walks.
19:43
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what it is with the
19:45
Speaker 1: Red Sox and why they can't hit this guy. Except
19:47
Speaker 1: for Trevor Store. He was five or fourteen with a
19:50
Speaker 1: home run and he was the winner last night. He
19:52
Speaker 1: was the walk off home run last night. I think
19:54
Speaker 1: it was Trevor Story one fifty three batting average for
19:58
Speaker 1: the Red Sox against Quantro and four forty one oh ps.
20:01
Speaker 1: So even though on the surface it looks like cal
20:03
Speaker 1: Quantrell should be pretty fadable in this game, his uh
20:07
Speaker 1: matchup numbers don't really tell the same stories. So maybe
20:11
Speaker 1: you don't really want to fake cal quantrel here Red Sox,
20:13
Speaker 1: said Brian BeO. Starting three point two five ERA one
20:17
Speaker 1: point two to nine whip is definitely still too high.
20:20
Speaker 1: He is a little bit better at home three point
20:22
Speaker 1: zero nine ERA, Bao. I mean he started pitching better
20:26
Speaker 1: and going deeper into games, man like, he started really
20:29
Speaker 1: getting on track and pitching a lot better. He really
20:31
Speaker 1: does not allow a whole lot of runs. His last
20:33
Speaker 1: outing was really bad though, at San Diego Pitcher Friendly Park.
20:37
Speaker 1: Gave up five earned runs, he walked three guys. He
20:39
Speaker 1: did still strike out seven and five and two thirds innings,
20:42
Speaker 1: which is good, But I'm gonna say that's more of
20:45
Speaker 1: a blip. I don't think we're ready to say that
20:47
Speaker 1: he's just all of a sudden in bad form. Although
20:49
Speaker 1: I know he's walked multiple guys in three of his
20:51
Speaker 1: last four outings, which is a little bit of a concern,
20:53
Speaker 1: but he still has a giving up more than three
20:56
Speaker 1: runs besides that outing going all the way back in
20:58
Speaker 1: in May. Although I know even when he wasn't given
21:01
Speaker 1: up earn runs, he still wasn't really pitching that well
21:04
Speaker 1: for a lot of the season. But I think since
21:05
Speaker 1: he's found kind of his groove. I don't think he's
21:07
Speaker 1: really I'm not ready to say that he's totally out
21:10
Speaker 1: of form here. And miamily is two hitters we've ever
21:12
Speaker 1: even faced him before, and they're one for seven off
21:15
Speaker 1: him with five strikeouts and no walk. So Bao pretty unfamiliar,
21:19
Speaker 1: does have good numbers against Miami, as weird as it seems.
21:23
Speaker 1: I think the way to look at this game is
21:25
Speaker 1: probably under in the first five innings, and it looks
21:28
Speaker 1: like maybe the initial move kind of went that way,
21:30
Speaker 1: from nine and a half juice to the under to
21:32
Speaker 1: nine juice to the over. I know it's a high total,
21:34
Speaker 1: so oddsmaker's kind of telling you that this game shouldn't
21:37
Speaker 1: be an under sixty percent of tickets seventy five percent
21:40
Speaker 1: of the cash coming on the over. I mean, as
21:42
Speaker 1: far as the bullpen usage, though, the Red Sox bullpen
21:45
Speaker 1: isn't too bad and they've had really light usage over
21:47
Speaker 1: the last few days, so the Red Sox bullpen is
21:49
Speaker 1: pretty much ready to go. Miami used a bit more
21:52
Speaker 1: of theirs yesterday, so if you want to go under
21:54
Speaker 1: full game, I mean, I'm not sure that I really
21:58
Speaker 1: beat you up over that either. I think that probably
22:00
Speaker 1: the way that I would slightly lean in this game.
22:02
Speaker 1: Even though we have sixty seven percent of tickets seventy
22:04
Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on the over, I think
22:06
Speaker 1: under might be worth a look because of the matchup
22:08
Speaker 1: numbers of these two starters. Red Sox upper minus one
22:12
Speaker 1: sixty five to minus one seventy two eighty seven percent
22:15
Speaker 1: of tickets, only sixty two percent of the cash. So
22:17
Speaker 1: the Red Sox are public money seemingly coming in against them.
22:20
Speaker 1: A little bit thinking that line is just too high,
22:23
Speaker 1: But again, yeah, I think looking towards overs might be
22:25
Speaker 1: the better or excuse me, unders might be the better
22:28
Speaker 1: way to look at that game. Yeah, women should definitely
22:30
Speaker 1: not be umpires, that's true, and I know there are
22:32
Speaker 1: fat man umpires that are also pretty bad at their jobs.
22:36
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is I mean, it's ridiculous. Man, it's bad.
22:39
Speaker 1: We had the Red Sox had that female announcing crew
22:43
Speaker 1: for one game. There. It's just bad, dude, Red Sox.
22:48
Speaker 1: That's such a step down from the Red Sox had
22:51
Speaker 1: Jerry Remy and don Or Silo for a long time.
22:53
Speaker 1: Jerry Remy rip even though Jerry Remy's son is a
22:57
Speaker 1: roid raging murderer, and Don Rosillo, I think is still
23:01
Speaker 1: doing doing the the games for the San Diego Padres now,
23:05
Speaker 1: where he's been for a while. He's like an Emmy
23:07
Speaker 1: winning uh sports commentator or whatever. He was in that
23:12
Speaker 1: in the booth with Jerry Remy for the Red Sox
23:14
Speaker 1: for a long time, and they were you can go
23:16
Speaker 1: find clips of them. Man, they were the most hilarious
23:18
Speaker 1: duo ever. Like they was. They would almost like stop
23:21
Speaker 1: calling the game and just get into these ridiculous jokes
23:24
Speaker 1: like that became beyond absurd, and it was just it
23:27
Speaker 1: was really fun to watch back when I was actually
23:29
Speaker 1: watching every Red Sox game too. Uh, Seattle in the Mets.
23:32
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a play for me as well, as
23:34
Speaker 1: you can see in the title, So I'll skip that
23:36
Speaker 1: for now. So both of my players are after noon games,
23:38
Speaker 1: Miami at since excuse me, Milwaukee at Cincinnati. Milwaukee, this
23:43
Speaker 1: is just getting out of control, dude. Cincinnati had an
23:46
Speaker 1: eight nothing lead in the game yesterday, I'm pretty sure,
23:48
Speaker 1: and Milwaukee still won the game, No excuse me, was
23:51
Speaker 1: eight to one, my mistake after the second inning, and
23:54
Speaker 1: Milwaukee immediately scored five runs in the third ending, and
23:57
Speaker 1: we're like, no, right, back in this game, and then
23:58
Speaker 1: Milwaukee wound up winning the game anyway, ten to eight.
24:01
Speaker 1: This Milwaukee team, they're like a zombie that keeps coming
24:05
Speaker 1: back to life. Man, Like you can't kill the Mizierowski
24:08
Speaker 1: was miserable in the game yesterday and his first game back.
24:11
Speaker 1: I told you, Milwaukee, we didn't know who their starter
24:15
Speaker 1: was gonna be yesterday, and I said that if it
24:16
Speaker 1: was miss or one of their other guys was actually good,
24:19
Speaker 1: I said, leave the game alone. If it's some like
24:22
Speaker 1: bullpen game, you might want to go with the Reds.
24:24
Speaker 1: And Milwaukee still had a terrible start from him. They
24:27
Speaker 1: basically wound up going with a bullpen game. They still
24:29
Speaker 1: won the game. It's just insane, man. Milwaukee is basically
24:33
Speaker 1: unkillable right now. Milwaukee, again, they used a ton of
24:36
Speaker 1: their relief staff. They used six relief pitchers yesterday. Cincinnati
24:40
Speaker 1: I think did use a bunch of theirs too, So
24:42
Speaker 1: the bullpen's are pretty worn out after yesterday. Even though
24:45
Speaker 1: Cincinnati used any of the day before that. Cincinnati five
24:49
Speaker 1: relief pitchers, I think Milwaukee used at least six yesterday.
24:53
Speaker 1: So bullpen's not in good shape here, even though I
24:55
Speaker 1: think you do generally give the edge to Milwaukee with
24:58
Speaker 1: the bullpen, but they use some of their better bullpen
25:01
Speaker 1: arms yesterday too, so bullpens, I think it's probably a
25:04
Speaker 1: no go for both teams and the bullpens here as
25:06
Speaker 1: far as your betting purposes on this game. Milwaukee does
25:10
Speaker 1: have the better offense. They're really good on the road,
25:12
Speaker 1: and as we know, Milwaukee continues to never lose. They've
25:15
Speaker 1: won I think thirteen games in a row now or
25:18
Speaker 1: something like that, and maybe even more. They have one
25:20
Speaker 1: of the longest win streaks in baseball history, and I
25:23
Speaker 1: think they might have multiple double digit win streaks this
25:27
Speaker 1: year too, which I think rarely ever happens. I mean,
25:30
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's doing some crazy shit starting pitching Quinn Priester. Speaking
25:35
Speaker 1: of crazy shit, he's got a three point four to
25:38
Speaker 1: nine ERA one point two four whip on the season.
25:41
Speaker 1: The crazy shit is that Milwaukee, I believe, has won
25:44
Speaker 1: thirteen starts in a row of his even though in
25:46
Speaker 1: some of his starts he hasn't even been good. He's
25:50
Speaker 1: a little bit better on the road by the way.
25:51
Speaker 1: Three point two to three ERA. His last start was
25:54
Speaker 1: one of his worst starts for a while. Man, he
25:56
Speaker 1: had a lot more than three in runs except for
25:59
Speaker 1: one starting against Miami where he gave it four. He
26:02
Speaker 1: had a lot more than three in runs. And then
26:03
Speaker 1: he start going all the way back to early May
26:05
Speaker 1: until his last start when he got rocked by the
26:08
Speaker 1: Mets for ten hits and six earned runs. And that
26:11
Speaker 1: was a game where Milwaukee was way behind early in
26:13
Speaker 1: the game and they were losing the game six to
26:15
Speaker 1: nothing maybe or something like that, and they won that
26:18
Speaker 1: game two. It's just insane, man. This team is like
26:21
Speaker 1: they can't be beaten right now. Quinn Priester, again, he's
26:25
Speaker 1: got the streak going for him. He's mostly been pitching
26:27
Speaker 1: shockingly well during that streak, although his last start again
26:30
Speaker 1: wasn't very good. This month, he does have only a
26:33
Speaker 1: six to three strikeout walk ratio, which is a little
26:35
Speaker 1: bit concerning, but he's never really been that much of
26:38
Speaker 1: a strikeout guy Priester. I mean, he is still mostly
26:41
Speaker 1: getting the job done though, and against the Reds he
26:43
Speaker 1: has really good numbers. In twenty eight at bats, he's
26:46
Speaker 1: only allowed two hits, although one of them is a
26:49
Speaker 1: home run from fredel or fredal however, you pronounce his
26:53
Speaker 1: name like dread old fredel Oh god No shut it down.
26:57
Speaker 1: Quinn Priester five to five strike out walker ratio, zero
27:00
Speaker 1: point seventy one batting average season against the Reds. Even
27:05
Speaker 1: though that strike a walk ratio is bad, He's heeld
27:06
Speaker 1: them a ridiculously low batting average and four to twenty
27:09
Speaker 1: six ops also ridiculously low. So pre Storm does have
27:13
Speaker 1: really good numbers against Cincinnati, even though we're going to
27:16
Speaker 1: Great American here where it's a pretty hitter friendly ballpark.
27:19
Speaker 1: He will be up against Zach Lttel, who has He's
27:23
Speaker 1: having a decent season three point SIXTYRA one point one
27:26
Speaker 1: to whip. Lattel generally better at home this year three
27:30
Speaker 1: point three six ERA. He spent most of the year
27:32
Speaker 1: with Tampa Bay, although Tampa Bay plays in Steinbrenner Field,
27:35
Speaker 1: as I've mentioned many times on the show every episode
27:39
Speaker 1: pretty much, which is a hitter friendly ballpark just like
27:41
Speaker 1: Great American is. So Lttel he's doing this stuff in
27:45
Speaker 1: all hitter friendly ballparks while pitching at home. So that's
27:48
Speaker 1: a decent sign for Lttel. But he went over to Cincinnati,
27:52
Speaker 1: and he had one good start when he first came
27:54
Speaker 1: over to Cincinnati, beating the Chicago Cobs going seven innings,
27:58
Speaker 1: one and run allout, eight stri gots, two walks. Really
28:01
Speaker 1: nice outing for him at Wrigley Field, but in his
28:03
Speaker 1: last start he was actually really bad at Pittsburgh. So
28:06
Speaker 1: go figure. He beats the Cubs, who have a really
28:09
Speaker 1: good offense, and then he does horrible against Pittsburg, who
28:11
Speaker 1: has a horrific offense. I'll give him nine hits in
28:14
Speaker 1: four and two thirds, four earned runs, still had three
28:16
Speaker 1: strike outs and no walks, so his strikeout walk ratio
28:19
Speaker 1: is still pretty good right now. Though his strike out
28:22
Speaker 1: walk ratio usually is good. So usually where he falls
28:25
Speaker 1: apart is that he allows way too many hits and
28:27
Speaker 1: home runs. Mostly he's allowed twenty seven home runs this
28:30
Speaker 1: Year's just way too many home runs and some of that,
28:33
Speaker 1: you know, it's a little bit that number is a
28:36
Speaker 1: little bit higher because of the stadiums that he has
28:38
Speaker 1: to pitch in, but that's still not good. I mean,
28:40
Speaker 1: he allows too many home runs. But his numbers are
28:42
Speaker 1: pretty good against the Brewers in twenty five career at
28:45
Speaker 1: bats five to three strike at walk ratio is not good,
28:47
Speaker 1: but they have no extra race hits against them, one
28:50
Speaker 1: sixty batting average of four to ten ops, so Lattel
28:54
Speaker 1: actually does pretty well against them too. So with the
28:56
Speaker 1: starting pitching here, I think the way to look at
28:59
Speaker 1: this game is under in the first five innings. That
29:01
Speaker 1: would probably be my recommendation in this one. It looks
29:05
Speaker 1: like the money is coming in on the under. It's
29:07
Speaker 1: flip from nine juice to the over, to nine juice
29:09
Speaker 1: to the under, seventy four percent of tickets on the over,
29:11
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash coming in on the under.
29:14
Speaker 1: So the money is agreement that I wouldn't want to
29:16
Speaker 1: deal with the bullpens after they got absolutely wasted yesterday,
29:19
Speaker 1: So just focus on the starting pitching matchup. That's probably
29:22
Speaker 1: the way I would go. And money's actually coming in
29:24
Speaker 1: towards Cincinnati. With Milwaukee down for minus one to twenty
29:26
Speaker 1: five to minus one fifteen, seventy six percent of tickets
29:29
Speaker 1: on them and only fifty three percent of the cash,
29:31
Speaker 1: the money again is fading Milwaukee here. Cincinnati does need
29:36
Speaker 1: the game more if they're trying to still make the
29:38
Speaker 1: playoffs here. So that's the one thing with Cincinnati is
29:41
Speaker 1: they have the motivation, which I keep forgetting to mention motivation.
29:44
Speaker 1: By the way, it's Boston. I mean they still have
29:46
Speaker 1: something to play for. Is they're fighting in the AL East.
29:48
Speaker 1: They're fighting to make sure they get a playoff spot.
29:50
Speaker 1: Miami is basically out of it. So somebody keep in
29:53
Speaker 1: mind Milwaukee has so much padding right now they might
29:56
Speaker 1: at some point take their foot off the gas. Cincinnati
29:59
Speaker 1: does need the game more, so I wouldn't necessarily disagree
30:02
Speaker 1: with the Cincinnati side. And I think because Milwaukee used
30:06
Speaker 1: more of their relievers yesterday, maybe this is where the
30:08
Speaker 1: Milwaukee streak comes to an end, and maybe the Priest
30:11
Speaker 1: streak would I mean, the Priest's streak would come to
30:13
Speaker 1: an end at the same time, So it would be
30:15
Speaker 1: a little bit fitting if that was the case. But
30:17
Speaker 1: I'm not ready to completely trust Latel though, either so
30:21
Speaker 1: we'll stay away. Stein needs a hitter friendly ballpark and
30:26
Speaker 1: a cal zone. Yeah, oh yeah, big Stein. Yeah needs
30:29
Speaker 1: akel zone from Paisanos. Yeah. An underrated Seinfeld episode. Rall,
30:34
Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out, dude, Seinfeld. My
30:37
Speaker 1: opinion on Seinfeld is that there are no bad Seinfeld
30:40
Speaker 1: episodes except for the finale. Like people talk about the
30:43
Speaker 1: last season as being a terrible season, it's not because
30:46
Speaker 1: I think I think the kel Zone episode is in
30:48
Speaker 1: that season. I think the frouder episodes there the butter Shape.
30:53
Speaker 1: There are a bunch of good episodes in the final
30:55
Speaker 1: couple of seasons. Literally the only bad episode is the finale,
31:00
Speaker 1: and I think maybe the show kind of staggered a
31:01
Speaker 1: little bit early on, like the really really early episodes
31:05
Speaker 1: in the first season maybe weren't that great. But I think, yeah,
31:08
Speaker 1: the pilot, Yeah, exactly, the pilot. I don't yeah, I
31:11
Speaker 1: don't think it's horrible. I'm trying to remember exactly what
31:13
Speaker 1: it was like. I think it's okay. I think really
31:16
Speaker 1: the only episode I'll say is bad is the finale,
31:18
Speaker 1: though the last season has a bunch of bangers in
31:21
Speaker 1: it man a lot of late Seinfeld episodes that are
31:24
Speaker 1: pretty much classic episodes. And by the way, Curbner Enthusiasm
31:30
Speaker 1: if you watched the last season at that they tried
31:32
Speaker 1: to redeem themselves for the bad Seinfeld finale. If you
31:36
Speaker 1: go watch the last season a curb, the finale was
31:38
Speaker 1: all about creating a better finale than the Seinfeld one,
31:41
Speaker 1: and Seinfeld is in it as well. I thought it
31:44
Speaker 1: was pretty funny. I thought they did a pretty good
31:46
Speaker 1: job with the curb finale, great show, curberr enthusiasm. All right,
31:51
Speaker 1: let's go to what are we doing here? Atlanta and Cleveland?
31:57
Speaker 1: All right, Cleveland, I mean, Cleveland was on nice hot streak,
32:00
Speaker 1: but they've started to kind of stagger a little bit,
32:03
Speaker 1: alternating their last like five games. They lost the first
32:06
Speaker 1: game of this series two to nothing yesterday, so Cleveland's
32:09
Speaker 1: bad offense came back into effect here. And by the way,
32:13
Speaker 1: I think I mentioned Milwaukee does have the better offense
32:15
Speaker 1: in their game in this game, and Lanta actually has
32:17
Speaker 1: the better offense, as weird as that sounds. Cleveland does
32:20
Speaker 1: have the better bullpend though, but as far as the
32:22
Speaker 1: bullpen usage, Cleveland only used three relievers yesterday. I think
32:26
Speaker 1: Atlanta didn't use that many either. Yeah, they only used three,
32:28
Speaker 1: so the bullpen usage isn't very heavy on either side.
32:31
Speaker 1: Cleveland does have the bullpen edge, and I think we're
32:33
Speaker 1: gonna go with Cleveland. As far as who has the
32:35
Speaker 1: starting pitching edg year because again Joey wentz there. He
32:38
Speaker 1: is the guy that the feminine umpire, the female umpire
32:42
Speaker 1: was giving him all the calls man, which was bullshit.
32:46
Speaker 1: He should have done a lot worse in that game.
32:47
Speaker 1: I don't think he's that good. His numbers are not
32:49
Speaker 1: that good this year five point h three are ERA,
32:52
Speaker 1: one point four to four whip pitching for Atlanta here
32:56
Speaker 1: he's been better on the road though, three point six
32:58
Speaker 1: to six ERA on the road this year. His season
33:01
Speaker 1: has been interesting because he was not on Atlanta to
33:03
Speaker 1: start the season. He was actually on Pittsburgh. Then he
33:06
Speaker 1: was on Minnesota, and then Atlanta picked him up and
33:09
Speaker 1: Lanta moved him into the starting rotation. They've ramped up
33:11
Speaker 1: his pitch count more reasonly. Again, he's been up and down,
33:15
Speaker 1: like he had a good shutout start against Kansas City,
33:17
Speaker 1: but Kansas City really bad offense. Milwaukee hit him around
33:21
Speaker 1: for five runs. Milwaukee's a good offense. And then he
33:24
Speaker 1: did fairly well last time out against Miami. That was
33:26
Speaker 1: that game I was talking about man where I think
33:29
Speaker 1: he should have given up more runs. He gave up
33:30
Speaker 1: one on run and five and to third, but he
33:32
Speaker 1: walked three guys and gave up four hits, so Miami
33:35
Speaker 1: was not scoring the guys that got on base, So yeah,
33:39
Speaker 1: I think he should have given up more runs in
33:40
Speaker 1: that game. So Wentz, I'm not ready to say that
33:42
Speaker 1: he's pitching that well. With seven walks over his last
33:45
Speaker 1: three starts, that's not good. Twelve strikeouts over that span,
33:48
Speaker 1: so his strikeout walk ratio is really not good. I
33:51
Speaker 1: don't think he is that good up against Cleveland. His
33:54
Speaker 1: numbers are actually bad. Cleveland has actually seen a lot
33:57
Speaker 1: of him because he was on Minnesota, so Cleveland is
33:59
Speaker 1: actually really familiar with him. To sixty at bats, fifteen
34:02
Speaker 1: to five strike a walk ratio is five, but he's
34:04
Speaker 1: a lot five home runs to them two for Mose
34:07
Speaker 1: Ramirez two to eighty three batting average, a lot in
34:10
Speaker 1: nine to thirty eight ops. So he's gotten hit around
34:14
Speaker 1: by this Cleveland offense. Man so Wentz, it doesn't look
34:16
Speaker 1: like a very good matchup for him. Cleveland is familiar
34:18
Speaker 1: with him. On the other side, Slay Chacone for Cleveland,
34:22
Speaker 1: I think he's the better of these two starters. I
34:24
Speaker 1: think he has the better stuff. Four point one winning,
34:28
Speaker 1: one point two to five whip for him on the season,
34:30
Speaker 1: A little bit worse at home though, four point seven
34:32
Speaker 1: to nine he r at home. He was bad his
34:35
Speaker 1: last time out against a bad White Sox lineup. I
34:37
Speaker 1: know that's not a good sign. He got five earned
34:39
Speaker 1: runs on eight hits and three innings to them, but
34:41
Speaker 1: he still had four strikeouts in one walk, so he
34:43
Speaker 1: still has a ten to two strike out walk race
34:46
Speaker 1: here this month. And the prior three starts he had
34:49
Speaker 1: in a lumber than three earned runs and he went
34:51
Speaker 1: at least six innings in all three, so he was
34:54
Speaker 1: pitching decently until that last start. So maybe it's a
34:56
Speaker 1: little bit of a blip. Maybe he'll turn it back
34:59
Speaker 1: on here. I think he is generally a fairly good pitcher,
35:01
Speaker 1: and Atlanta really has not seen a whole lot of them,
35:03
Speaker 1: so he has the unfamiliarity edge. They only have thirteen
35:06
Speaker 1: at bats against only four of their hitters have faced them,
35:09
Speaker 1: they only have one hit against him. Three to two
35:11
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not good, but seventy seven
35:14
Speaker 1: average and two seventy seven oh pfs. So I think
35:16
Speaker 1: you've got to give Chacone the edge here, and you
35:19
Speaker 1: probably have to continue giving Cleveland the edge throughout the
35:21
Speaker 1: game as far as the bullpen is concerned. So I
35:24
Speaker 1: think Cleveland is the right side in this game, but
35:26
Speaker 1: the money is disagreeing with me. Cleveland is a very,
35:30
Speaker 1: very uh a team that you want to avoid as
35:33
Speaker 1: far as the market read is concerned because they are
35:36
Speaker 1: a public road or public home underdog here, which is
35:40
Speaker 1: not something you want to touch as far as the
35:42
Speaker 1: market read. But I still think Cleveland is the right
35:44
Speaker 1: side here. If you were to force me to have
35:47
Speaker 1: to play this game, sixty seven percent tickets, fifty seven
35:50
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them, and Atlanta flip from
35:52
Speaker 1: plus one o nine to minus one on nine. I
35:54
Speaker 1: mean Atlanta, they just continue to get the professional money man.
35:58
Speaker 1: Because again, Atlanta, they have actually a fairly decent run
36:01
Speaker 1: differential this year, so that would tell you that they're
36:03
Speaker 1: actually better than the record would tell you that they are.
36:06
Speaker 1: Cleveland is nowhere near as good as the record tells
36:08
Speaker 1: you that they are. But Cleveland does have a motivational
36:10
Speaker 1: edge here too, because Cleveland, I mean they lost yesterday, right,
36:14
Speaker 1: they got shut out, but they also they're playing to
36:16
Speaker 1: still try to make the playoffs here. Man. I'm pretty
36:18
Speaker 1: sure their record they're above five hundreds. They're trying to
36:21
Speaker 1: get something done here, man. So I think that's that
36:24
Speaker 1: maybe helps Cleveland a little bit as well from the
36:26
Speaker 1: motivational standpoint. So I would look towards Cleveland in the game,
36:30
Speaker 1: even though the market is completely disagreeing with that. Baltimore
36:33
Speaker 1: at Houston, this is one of the worst starting pitching
36:35
Speaker 1: matchups that I could possibly imagine, speaking of Seinfeld George
36:40
Speaker 1: Costanza's pitching in this game. Houston lost seven to nothing
36:45
Speaker 1: yesterday with against Baltimore. With it, I mean, it's ridiculous.
36:51
Speaker 1: I know, with Houston fighting for the top spot in
36:53
Speaker 1: the Al West, Houston has something to play for here,
36:55
Speaker 1: Baltimore does not. Houston definitely has the better bullpen, the
37:00
Speaker 1: better offense as well, but they almost got perfect gamed
37:04
Speaker 1: by Brandon Young, who I said, he's a young guy
37:06
Speaker 1: with bad numbers. But Brandon Young does have stuff like
37:09
Speaker 1: he can actually do well, like he has a very
37:12
Speaker 1: high ceiling. He might become something. Man. He took a
37:15
Speaker 1: perfect game into the eighth inning last night and finally
37:18
Speaker 1: gave up a hit, and then they took him out
37:19
Speaker 1: of the game. From Bervaldez didn't even pitch that badly
37:23
Speaker 1: in the game, but took the loss because Houston couldn't
37:26
Speaker 1: even hit at all against Brandon Young. Houston they might
37:29
Speaker 1: bounce back from that, I mean, I thought they're maybe
37:31
Speaker 1: in a little bit of a letdown spot coming off
37:33
Speaker 1: series against the Yankees and the Red Sox Baltimore. I mean,
37:36
Speaker 1: who's gonna pay it's ention to Baltimore, really, But now
37:38
Speaker 1: that Houston lost seven to nothing, Houston might kind of
37:41
Speaker 1: show up for this one of the Houston's offense really
37:44
Speaker 1: has kind of been struggling a bit. But Houston really
37:47
Speaker 1: really has a rested bullpen here. They only used two
37:50
Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday. The didn't use any of the day
37:52
Speaker 1: before that. They're keeping their bullpen very very intact here,
37:56
Speaker 1: and they have the much better bullpen anyway. Baltimore again
37:58
Speaker 1: only used one relief pitch because Young got them into
38:01
Speaker 1: the ninth inning yesterday. But uh, Houston does get the
38:04
Speaker 1: bullpen edge here. I still give them the offensive edge
38:07
Speaker 1: as well, and they probably have to starting pitching edge.
38:10
Speaker 1: As ridiculous as that sounds. He goes. Baltimore is going
38:12
Speaker 1: with Rico Garcia, who does have good numbers three point
38:17
Speaker 1: seven to one ERA one whip. He's a thirty one
38:19
Speaker 1: year old right hand who's very short and fat. I
38:23
Speaker 1: mean he's listed at five nine to two oh one.
38:26
Speaker 1: I mean that's like Jose dimensions there. Man. He's this
38:29
Speaker 1: wide motherfucker. He's mostly been a relief pitcher man. He's
38:33
Speaker 1: a little he is a little bit better on the
38:35
Speaker 1: road three point four to eighty ra. But if you
38:37
Speaker 1: look at what he's done this year, he's been all
38:39
Speaker 1: over the place. Man. He was on the Yeah, he
38:42
Speaker 1: was on the Mets, then the Yankees. Oh no, wait,
38:46
Speaker 1: he was on the yank you know. Yeah, he was
38:48
Speaker 1: on the Mets, then the Yankees, then back to the Mets.
38:52
Speaker 1: Very very confusing, some Mets, Yankees, Mets. He was just
38:55
Speaker 1: he was right in the subway man a lot. And
38:57
Speaker 1: then he went to Baltimore and he's made two whippearances
39:00
Speaker 1: with Baltimore, both against Seattle. I mean, it's just bizarre, dude.
39:04
Speaker 1: But the key to takeaway here is this is a
39:07
Speaker 1: Baltimore like bullpen game. Garcia has not gone more than
39:10
Speaker 1: two and two thirds innings in any of his outings here,
39:12
Speaker 1: so I don't expect him to go much more than that.
39:15
Speaker 1: So he's probably gonna throw a couple innings here and
39:17
Speaker 1: then Baltimore's gonna go with their bullpen. So you're getting
39:21
Speaker 1: a bullpen game out of Baltimore here. In Baltimore's bullpen's
39:23
Speaker 1: not good, so it doesn't look like the greatest scenario
39:27
Speaker 1: for Baltimore here. Yeah, he's chunky for sure. Yeah, check
39:30
Speaker 1: out Curb your enthusiasm. It just ended not too long ago.
39:34
Speaker 1: But I mean the whole series Curb is worth watching.
39:37
Speaker 1: But it's a lot of seasons now, and it was
39:40
Speaker 1: on long, long ago, and then there were long hiatuses
39:42
Speaker 1: in the middle. Larry David his thing was he didn't
39:45
Speaker 1: want to put on a new season a Curb until
39:47
Speaker 1: he thought he had a really good idea for the season.
39:50
Speaker 1: Jason Alexander, like I said, George Costanza, who is not
39:54
Speaker 1: the stubby one here. He's to twenty seven, but he's
39:56
Speaker 1: six too. He's pitching for Houston here is number are
40:00
Speaker 1: not good five point zero two era at one point
40:02
Speaker 1: four to six, whip bad at home six point seventy
40:06
Speaker 1: five y RA. But you have to take that with
40:08
Speaker 1: a little bit of a grain of sault because he
40:09
Speaker 1: was on the A's, So those really bad numbers, some
40:12
Speaker 1: of them were with the A's. A lot of it
40:14
Speaker 1: was this start where he got like completely wrecked by
40:17
Speaker 1: the Dodgers on the road. That A's Stadium, we know,
40:20
Speaker 1: is a terrible stadium to pitch. And since he's been
40:22
Speaker 1: with Houston, really he's only had one bad start against
40:26
Speaker 1: against the A's against his former team, but that was
40:29
Speaker 1: because he first faced the A's right after Houston got him,
40:32
Speaker 1: and he pitched decently, and then the A's roughed him
40:35
Speaker 1: up the next time they saw him, which was his
40:37
Speaker 1: worst start. He's been decent with Houston otherwise, but I
40:41
Speaker 1: still worry a little bit because he's walked multiple guys
40:43
Speaker 1: in all but one start with Houston, although this month
40:46
Speaker 1: he has two shutouts and went six innings each onoinly
40:50
Speaker 1: lot four hits total nine to four strikeout walk ratio
40:53
Speaker 1: is not very good, but he didn't allow any runs
40:55
Speaker 1: at Miami and then at the Yankees, which is pretty
40:59
Speaker 1: impressive to one hitting the Yankees. So Alexander, I mean,
41:04
Speaker 1: for me, he's really tough to read because I still
41:06
Speaker 1: don't think he's a very good pitcher. All the Orioles
41:08
Speaker 1: have almost no experience against him. They're over two against him,
41:13
Speaker 1: so yeah, there's basically no track record there. Garcia, by
41:16
Speaker 1: the way, I forgot to show his stats against Houston.
41:19
Speaker 1: Houston only has three hitters who have seen him in
41:21
Speaker 1: They're two for three off him, but not a whole
41:23
Speaker 1: lot to see there no strikeouts no walks, so there
41:26
Speaker 1: is unfamiliarity on both sides here. But I think because
41:28
Speaker 1: it's a bullpend game, I don't trust Jason Alexander. I mean,
41:34
Speaker 1: both bullpens are intact, and Houston's bullpen is good, but
41:38
Speaker 1: Baltimore's bullpen isn't. I mean to me, my reaction to
41:42
Speaker 1: this was that the over would be the way to
41:44
Speaker 1: look at this game. But the money is totally disagreeing
41:46
Speaker 1: with it. It's down from nine to eight and a half,
41:48
Speaker 1: basically seventy one percent of tickets fifty seven percent of
41:50
Speaker 1: the cash on the over. So the money's coming in
41:52
Speaker 1: against me there as far as the over is concerned.
41:55
Speaker 1: It's certainly not gonna be a player or anything like that,
41:57
Speaker 1: but I think you could see some runs in this
42:00
Speaker 1: because I just don't like the starting pitching matchup at all. Houston.
42:03
Speaker 1: The money line dropped all the way from minus one
42:05
Speaker 1: seventy to minus one thirty seven, eighty five percent of
42:08
Speaker 1: the tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on Houston,
42:11
Speaker 1: which I don't buy a number like that, but I
42:13
Speaker 1: think Houston is public and the money line is completely
42:15
Speaker 1: moving against them, So do with that information what you will.
42:18
Speaker 1: I guess a White Sox at Kansas City. I'm really
42:22
Speaker 1: mad because I almost gave out the under in that
42:24
Speaker 1: game on the show as a play. That was my
42:26
Speaker 1: lean in the game yesterday, and it happened very easily
42:29
Speaker 1: in a three to one final yesterday, a win for
42:32
Speaker 1: Kansas City for Zach. Zach's about to come, and I
42:34
Speaker 1: assume our Kansas City fan there Kansas City has the
42:38
Speaker 1: better of these two bullpens. They didn't use a whole
42:40
Speaker 1: lot of their bullpen yesterday four guys, but three of
42:43
Speaker 1: them through single digit pitches, so they'd probably be available
42:46
Speaker 1: to get again today if they really need them. So
42:49
Speaker 1: case does get the bullpen edge, even though the White
42:52
Speaker 1: Sox bullpen is fairly rested. I think only two guys
42:55
Speaker 1: yesterday and none the day before that, neither team played
42:58
Speaker 1: the day before that, But still Kansas City he has
43:00
Speaker 1: the better bullpen. As bad as Kansas City's offense is,
43:03
Speaker 1: they actually have the better offense. And one of the
43:05
Speaker 1: reasons why I said under yesterday was because both these
43:08
Speaker 1: offenses are terrible and the under might again be a
43:12
Speaker 1: way to look in this game. To be honest, Sean
43:14
Speaker 1: Burke is gonna pitch for the White Sox here he's
43:17
Speaker 1: a rookie. His numbers are not great. Four point two
43:20
Speaker 1: six ERA and one point four for whip is definitely
43:22
Speaker 1: way too high. He's been worse on the road four
43:25
Speaker 1: point seven to eight ERA on the road, which isn't good.
43:28
Speaker 1: I was pitching a little bit better more recently, allowing
43:32
Speaker 1: no more than three runs than any started except for
43:34
Speaker 1: one in July. Going all the way back into June,
43:38
Speaker 1: he gave up more than that in one start. So
43:41
Speaker 1: he is pitching okay, but he's not going deep into
43:43
Speaker 1: games anymore. Three of his last four starts he didn't
43:46
Speaker 1: go five innings. White Sox lost all but one of them.
43:49
Speaker 1: This month, he has five walks. Although fourteen strikeouts in
43:52
Speaker 1: eight and a third innings is pretty impressive, but five
43:55
Speaker 1: walks is way too many. He's given up ten hits
43:58
Speaker 1: five in runs for five point five this month. Failed
44:01
Speaker 1: to make it even four in his last time out
44:03
Speaker 1: against Cleveland. I just threw way too many pitches in
44:07
Speaker 1: that game. Was very inefficient, even though he held them
44:09
Speaker 1: to tour in runs, it was only in three to
44:11
Speaker 1: third and he gave up five hits three walks, so
44:13
Speaker 1: he got really lucky into them. More runs in that one,
44:16
Speaker 1: so Burke isn't really in the greatest forum right now,
44:19
Speaker 1: but his numbers are good against Kansas City, although it's
44:21
Speaker 1: a very limited sample size of fourteen is Bell doesn't
44:26
Speaker 1: have a home run Offen, but he has a lot
44:28
Speaker 1: of two fourteen average six to ninety five ops to them,
44:32
Speaker 1: so his numbers are pretty good against KC and case
44:35
Speaker 1: will have Michael Lorenzen returning from the injured list year.
44:38
Speaker 1: His season has definitely been all over the place. He's
44:41
Speaker 1: been atrocious in some starts and really good in some starts.
44:45
Speaker 1: Four point six one ERA, one point three whip not great.
44:48
Speaker 1: He is way better at home though, for the most part,
44:50
Speaker 1: three point seven to ninety ra here in Kaufman Stadium,
44:54
Speaker 1: so he is better at home against the White Sox.
44:57
Speaker 1: He does have really good numbers and forty four at
44:59
Speaker 1: bats teen of five strikeout walk ratio one fourteen average
45:03
Speaker 1: of four h nine ops, so Lorenzen does do well
45:06
Speaker 1: against the White Sox, and he was starting to ramp
45:09
Speaker 1: it up again before he got hurt. He had a
45:11
Speaker 1: seven inning shutout at Arizona with two hits allowed, seven strikeouts,
45:15
Speaker 1: one walk, which is really impressive. After he was pretty
45:18
Speaker 1: bad for the entire month of July. He actually started
45:21
Speaker 1: much of June. Excuse me. He started pitching veteran July,
45:24
Speaker 1: and then he got hurt. Oh, which sucks, but he
45:27
Speaker 1: was starting to trend in the right direction. Now he's
45:30
Speaker 1: coming back, so the question is he's gonna bounce back
45:32
Speaker 1: right away, And maybe he will because he is a veteran,
45:35
Speaker 1: so he's been around for a long time. He's used
45:37
Speaker 1: to doing this, I used to coming back from injury
45:39
Speaker 1: and pitching, so he might dwell again. I mean, it's
45:42
Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park. He gets a task, you know,
45:45
Speaker 1: to face this bad Chicago offense that he usually does
45:48
Speaker 1: well against. So I think an under maybe is still
45:50
Speaker 1: worth a look in this game as well, either first
45:53
Speaker 1: five innings or if you want to include the bullpens,
45:55
Speaker 1: because the bullpens are still fairly rested here and the
45:57
Speaker 1: money is agreeing on that. When it looks like at
45:59
Speaker 1: least as far as the initial move flipping the nine
46:02
Speaker 1: and a half juice to the over to juice to
46:04
Speaker 1: the under, fifty three percent of tickets on the over, though,
46:07
Speaker 1: and eighty five percent of the cash on the over. Still,
46:09
Speaker 1: I think leaning under makes sense and the money's coming
46:12
Speaker 1: in on the White Sox. Kansas City down for minus
46:14
Speaker 1: one sixty five to minus one thirty seven, seventy nine
46:16
Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, but fifty nine percent of
46:19
Speaker 1: the cash coming in on the White Sox. So fairly
46:22
Speaker 1: strong market read on the White Sox. I mean, I
46:26
Speaker 1: wouldn't want to do that personally. Kansas City does at
46:29
Speaker 1: least have I think a little bit of motivation because
46:31
Speaker 1: they're still just sitting at five hundred. I mean, I
46:33
Speaker 1: think they're still not really technically eliminated, so they still
46:36
Speaker 1: kind of have something to play for here. White Sox. Yeah, debatably,
46:39
Speaker 1: maybe they want to ruin Kansas City's party here, but
46:42
Speaker 1: uh yeah, I mean that's how I break that game down.
46:44
Speaker 1: Detroit at Minnesota. Uh, Minnesota lost yesterday seven and nothing,
46:50
Speaker 1: so Detroit has taken the first two games of this year.
46:53
Speaker 1: Is Detroit starting to play better again? I mean, we
46:55
Speaker 1: know Detroit is atop this division right now. Minnesota just
46:58
Speaker 1: playing out the stretch they got and left to play for,
47:01
Speaker 1: except maybe they want to spoil Detroit's party here, although
47:04
Speaker 1: Detroit is playing for playoff positioning whatever, Detroit has the
47:07
Speaker 1: better bullpen. Detroit also has the better offense. Detroit has
47:11
Speaker 1: seen some bullpen usage recently, only three relievers yesterday, though
47:17
Speaker 1: Minnesota only used two and they used Pierson Old. Actually
47:20
Speaker 1: Oil was scheduled to start yesterday, I think, but they
47:23
Speaker 1: actually then. I don't know if they use them out
47:25
Speaker 1: of the bullpen or if this bullpen tracker just kind
47:27
Speaker 1: of still has him listed as a reliever even if
47:29
Speaker 1: he started yesterday. But Minnesota did kind of save their
47:32
Speaker 1: bullpend yesterday, but I'm not sure it matters that much
47:34
Speaker 1: because their bullpen isn't good starting pitching. Casey Mize is
47:39
Speaker 1: pitching for Detroit, and he's still a guy that I
47:40
Speaker 1: think isn't as good as his numbers look. Three point
47:43
Speaker 1: five ERA, one point two to seven WHIP, I mean,
47:46
Speaker 1: those are not bad numbers, and he's basically the same
47:48
Speaker 1: ERA wise home and away. He hasn't been pitching as
47:52
Speaker 1: well over the last couple of months. Though he had
47:54
Speaker 1: a six point three two ERA in July. This month's
47:57
Speaker 1: down to four point nine, which isn't that bad. Nine
48:00
Speaker 1: to two strike out walk radio this month is okay,
48:02
Speaker 1: but he only went five innings in his last start
48:05
Speaker 1: against Anaheim, gave up two hour runs, walk two guys.
48:08
Speaker 1: He's walked multiple guys in two of his last three starts.
48:12
Speaker 1: One against Arizona he only lasted one and two thirds,
48:14
Speaker 1: which is not a good sign. And he pitched really
48:17
Speaker 1: badly against Pittsburgh the game before that, but maybe he
48:19
Speaker 1: was distracted. He had a couple of really bad starts
48:22
Speaker 1: around pitching in the All Star Games, so maybe that
48:24
Speaker 1: distracted him a bit and he kind of rounded back
48:27
Speaker 1: into form slightly. But Minnesota is familiar with them, and
48:31
Speaker 1: Minnesota did just see him back on August fourth, and
48:34
Speaker 1: they got three runs off him on three solo home runs,
48:37
Speaker 1: which is a really really crazy stat. It's crazy he
48:40
Speaker 1: didn't a lot more runs than that because he didn't
48:43
Speaker 1: walk to anybody, you know, only allowed one other hit,
48:46
Speaker 1: had four strikeouts no walks in that one. So overall, though,
48:49
Speaker 1: his numbers are fairly good against Minnesota and seventy five
48:52
Speaker 1: at bats thirteen to three strike out walk ratio. Has
48:55
Speaker 1: allowed six homers to them, though, so the ops is
48:57
Speaker 1: gonna be a bit high. Buckst and is good against
48:59
Speaker 1: some seven for seventeen, two doubles, two homers, two thirteen
49:03
Speaker 1: average a lot to Minnesota, though, so he has done
49:06
Speaker 1: fairly well against them. Seven to twenty four OPS is
49:09
Speaker 1: not too high, although a little bit getting towards the
49:12
Speaker 1: high side, but still myz. I mean, he does have
49:14
Speaker 1: the ability to still do well against Minnesota, but they
49:17
Speaker 1: are recently familiar with him. Zebbie Matthews is pitching for
49:21
Speaker 1: the Twins. He's been all over the place this season. Man,
49:24
Speaker 1: He's been in the starting rotation, he's been in the minors,
49:26
Speaker 1: he's been on the injured list. He's now coming back again.
49:29
Speaker 1: I think he's been back for a little while. I
49:31
Speaker 1: don't know why ESPN listen as being on the injured
49:34
Speaker 1: list because I think he has pitched in August five
49:37
Speaker 1: point one one, one point three to six WHIP. I
49:39
Speaker 1: know those are not good numbers. He is still a
49:42
Speaker 1: young guy, though, and he does have high upside. I
49:45
Speaker 1: would say he's one of their young prospects and I
49:49
Speaker 1: think he's gonna develop into something. He does have a
49:51
Speaker 1: four point four ERA at home this year, which is
49:53
Speaker 1: a little bit better. Yeah, he last pitched on regular
49:56
Speaker 1: rest at the Yankees. So he is pitching, you know all.
49:59
Speaker 1: He hasn't pitching in August, and he hasn't been bad.
50:01
Speaker 1: He's got a three point three eighty I ran across
50:04
Speaker 1: two starts in August when at least five innings in
50:06
Speaker 1: both starts, had fifteen strikeouts and ten and two thirds
50:09
Speaker 1: innings two walks, so good strikeout walk ratio. He had
50:13
Speaker 1: nine strikeouts last time and against the Yankees he allowed
50:16
Speaker 1: three home runs to them in the Bronx, but those
50:18
Speaker 1: are the only runs he allowed. So his last two
50:20
Speaker 1: starts were not against easy opponents, against Detroit and New
50:23
Speaker 1: York the Yankees, and he did fairly well in both starts.
50:27
Speaker 1: So Matthews is pitching pretty well right now. Though of
50:30
Speaker 1: course Detroit did just see him, so Detroit is now
50:32
Speaker 1: recently familiar with him as well. But he's been pitching
50:36
Speaker 1: for Minnesota for a couple of seasons now, so Detroit
50:38
Speaker 1: has seen him a little bit. Detroit well, actually they
50:41
Speaker 1: only have seventeen at bats against so so maybe it
50:43
Speaker 1: was just that one start five to one strike a
50:45
Speaker 1: walk ratio. He actually did well against them two thirty
50:48
Speaker 1: five batting average six thirty one ops, so he has
50:52
Speaker 1: good numbers against him. Like I said, he went five
50:55
Speaker 1: innings against them, only lone one run. I don't think
50:56
Speaker 1: I actually said that, but he had one run six
50:59
Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio there, so Matthews did
51:02
Speaker 1: do well against them. I mean, as crazy as it
51:05
Speaker 1: might sound, I mean I could see an argument for
51:08
Speaker 1: an under in this game, maybe just in the first
51:11
Speaker 1: five innings, because I don't think you really want to
51:12
Speaker 1: deal with Minnesota's bullpen here. Total flip for me, and
51:17
Speaker 1: to have juice the under juice to the over seventy
51:19
Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
51:20
Speaker 1: the over, I think the starting pitcher could maybe kind
51:23
Speaker 1: of come in and surprise some people. Money is also
51:26
Speaker 1: coming out of Minnesota. Interesting. They flipped from plus win
51:29
Speaker 1: eighteen to minus one oh six ninety one percent of tickets,
51:32
Speaker 1: only eighty two percent of the cash. So Minnesota looks
51:35
Speaker 1: like a very anti public, almost home favored at this point.
51:39
Speaker 1: So Mark Reid is kind of saying Minnesota there. I
51:42
Speaker 1: don't really necessarily disagree with it, but I don't love
51:45
Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen at all. So I think if you like
51:47
Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup, and I can see the argument
51:50
Speaker 1: that Matthews is better than Myz just because I think
51:52
Speaker 1: he has higher upside. He's a younger pitcher who has
51:55
Speaker 1: like a higher ceiling base game better stuff, so I
52:00
Speaker 1: could see an argument from Minnesota first five innings money
52:03
Speaker 1: line in that one. Yankees at Minnesota, or excuse me,
52:07
Speaker 1: Yankees at Saint Louis. What am I saying? Excuse me
52:09
Speaker 1: Yankees Saint Louis. Saint Louis lost three in a row. Now,
52:13
Speaker 1: unfortunately for me as a Yankee hater in Red Sox
52:16
Speaker 1: and the Yankees got the win four to three yesterday.
52:18
Speaker 1: I still think the Yankees have the worst of these
52:20
Speaker 1: two bullpens, these four relief pitchers yesterday, although their bullpen
52:24
Speaker 1: isn't that taxed right now. Neither team played the day
52:27
Speaker 1: before that, though Saint Louis used three relievers yesterday. Those
52:30
Speaker 1: Saint Louis did trade away a couple of their better relievers.
52:33
Speaker 1: Yankees overall have had the worst bullpend this season, though
52:36
Speaker 1: Yankees obviously do have the better offense. Starting pitching, this
52:41
Speaker 1: looks like it might have the makings of a pitching
52:43
Speaker 1: duem man. Basically, we're getting the ace for both teams
52:47
Speaker 1: pitching in this game. Max Freed for the Yankees. Good
52:50
Speaker 1: numbers on the season two point nine four ERA, one
52:53
Speaker 1: point one whip. He's been a little bit worse on
52:56
Speaker 1: the road three point one to five yr on the road.
52:58
Speaker 1: But the thing you have to worry about about Freed
53:00
Speaker 1: is he's actually been not very good for over a
53:03
Speaker 1: month now. He had a five point five to four
53:05
Speaker 1: ERA in July with a twenty one to eleven strike
53:07
Speaker 1: out walk ratio. This month seven point two ERA with
53:11
Speaker 1: a ten to four strike out walk ratio, so his
53:14
Speaker 1: walk raid has been kind of a concern. He's giving
53:16
Speaker 1: up four and runs in five inninges and both starts
53:19
Speaker 1: this month against Texas and Houston. Texas not a prolific
53:23
Speaker 1: offense at all. Houston definitely up and down. They've had
53:26
Speaker 1: moments with their offense has been non existentough their offense
53:29
Speaker 1: is not horrible. But Freed is just not really pitching
53:33
Speaker 1: particularly well right now. So he's not in good form.
53:35
Speaker 1: But maybe he will kind of return to for him
53:38
Speaker 1: here because his numbers against Saint Louis are good. In
53:40
Speaker 1: twenty two at bats four to three strike at walk
53:42
Speaker 1: ration is not good, but he's on to a one
53:44
Speaker 1: to eighty two average and five point fifty three ops,
53:47
Speaker 1: so maybe Freed will bounce back and have a better
53:49
Speaker 1: game here. Sonny Gray is pitching for Saint Louis four
53:53
Speaker 1: point zero six e RA is probably higher than it
53:55
Speaker 1: should be. I mean, he's gotten rocked in some starts, Man,
53:58
Speaker 1: he's just gotten really really porched for a lot of
54:01
Speaker 1: hits in some starts, but he doesn't put a lot
54:03
Speaker 1: of guys on base. He has a one point one
54:05
Speaker 1: to five whip. He's usually a guy that has good command,
54:08
Speaker 1: and he's significantly better at home with a three point
54:10
Speaker 1: three to three homey RA. And he's really bounced back
54:13
Speaker 1: return to for him man, after he had a couple
54:15
Speaker 1: of really atrocious starts in July. Here he's really come
54:19
Speaker 1: back in the form, especially this month. One point two
54:22
Speaker 1: nine ERA, fifteen to two strike a walk ratio in
54:25
Speaker 1: fourteen innings, six hits allowed to hour in runs allowed.
54:29
Speaker 1: And he did that in two seven inning performances, allowing
54:32
Speaker 1: one run each against the Dodgers and the Cobs so
54:37
Speaker 1: and Dodgers on the road, So he did that against
54:39
Speaker 1: two really good lineups. So Gray, if you want to
54:42
Speaker 1: look at current form, Gray as in the better current
54:44
Speaker 1: form over Freed right now pitching really well and he
54:47
Speaker 1: does actually have pretty good numbers against the Yankees in
54:49
Speaker 1: the past is sixty eight at bats eighteen to nine
54:51
Speaker 1: strike a walk, ratio no home runs allowed, and then
54:54
Speaker 1: maybe that'll change here. But he's helped him to a
54:56
Speaker 1: two twenty one average six seventeen ops. I mean, the
55:00
Speaker 1: nine walks isn't that great. Four of them are gold Schmid,
55:02
Speaker 1: though gold Schmid is only one for twenty three off him,
55:05
Speaker 1: so he's kind of pitched around gold Schmid a bit.
55:07
Speaker 1: But overall, Gray does have pretty good pitching numbers against them. Uh,
55:12
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Saint Louis. The market
55:15
Speaker 1: read is on Saint Louis. Here the Yankees down for
55:17
Speaker 1: minus one forty to minus one thirty five, weirdly because
55:19
Speaker 1: Saint Louis has nothing left to play for and the
55:21
Speaker 1: Yankees are trying to make the playoffs at this point.
55:26
Speaker 1: Yankees are a road favorite, though, and maybe the professional
55:29
Speaker 1: betters are kind of saying, and we don't really think
55:31
Speaker 1: they should be favored by this much going up against
55:33
Speaker 1: Sonny Gray, or we think it might be a closer,
55:36
Speaker 1: low ish scoring game here, And I don't really disagree
55:39
Speaker 1: with that. I think Gray, just because he's in the
55:42
Speaker 1: better form, I think I might agree with that. Yankees
55:44
Speaker 1: down for minus one forty minus one thirty five, like
55:46
Speaker 1: I said, and Saint Louis might still be motivated just
55:49
Speaker 1: because it's the Yankees coming into their house and Saint
55:52
Speaker 1: Louis lost yesterday, So Saint Louis might show up for
55:55
Speaker 1: a game like this, fifty one percent of tickets on
55:57
Speaker 1: the Yankees, but sixty three percent of the cash coming
55:59
Speaker 1: in Saint Louis. The money is coming into Saint Louis.
56:03
Speaker 1: If I was gonna do that, I mean, I could
56:06
Speaker 1: still see the argument for the full game, honestly, because
56:08
Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen isn't really that good, or like, you
56:10
Speaker 1: could go first five innings as well, if you really
56:12
Speaker 1: just want to focus on the starting pitching matchup and
56:15
Speaker 1: go money line Saint Louis first five innings, I wouldn't
56:18
Speaker 1: argue with you if you went full game either. The
56:21
Speaker 1: under is taking money as well, seventy five percent of
56:24
Speaker 1: tickets ninety seven percent of the cash on the under
56:26
Speaker 1: total down from eight to seven and a half all
56:28
Speaker 1: the way to seven and a half juice to the under,
56:30
Speaker 1: so that is a low total. Man, I wouldn't want
56:33
Speaker 1: to deal with the bullpens with an under in this game, though,
56:36
Speaker 1: So if you went under, I think you would have
56:37
Speaker 1: to do it earlier. In the game, although both starters
56:40
Speaker 1: could potentially get you kind of deep into this game,
56:42
Speaker 1: which would help the bullpenz situation there. I know seven
56:46
Speaker 1: is a key number, so if you wanted to go
56:47
Speaker 1: under in this game, and you wanted to go the
56:49
Speaker 1: under seven and a half full game, you could go,
56:52
Speaker 1: you know, have at it, I guess, because if you
56:54
Speaker 1: go first five innings, you probably have to go under
56:56
Speaker 1: three and a half, which is definitely a little bit
56:58
Speaker 1: more dicey of a seat situation. Arizona at Colorado. I'm
57:02
Speaker 1: not gonna give out the over in this one, so
57:04
Speaker 1: that means it's probably gonna hit for once in this one.
57:07
Speaker 1: I'm gonna finally just stay away from the series. The
57:10
Speaker 1: teams have split the series so far, I want nothing
57:12
Speaker 1: to do with it. At this point. The fact remains
57:15
Speaker 1: that both bullpens are bad, although the rest scenario isn't
57:17
Speaker 1: really that bad. Arizona only use a couple of relievers
57:20
Speaker 1: each day. Colorado as well, didn't really use that much
57:23
Speaker 1: of their bullpen, but their bullpens will stink. Arizona's offense
57:26
Speaker 1: is the better of the two offenses, although Colorado is
57:29
Speaker 1: just slightly better at home. Ryan Nelson is pitching for Arizona.
57:34
Speaker 1: He does have good numbers this year. Skip it. Yeah,
57:37
Speaker 1: but you know this is gonna be the one where
57:38
Speaker 1: the over finally cash is right after I gave the
57:41
Speaker 1: over out in the last two games. It took a
57:43
Speaker 1: beating on both of those. Ryan Nelson, Oh, this is great.
57:47
Speaker 1: I hear you can see it right here on my TV.
57:50
Speaker 1: Here we have a stupid the emergency contact message emergency
57:56
Speaker 1: broadcast signal message here. I hate it because you just
57:59
Speaker 1: hear it going up, like, come on, man, I'm trying
58:02
Speaker 1: to do my show, motherfucker. Maybe it should just turn the
58:06
Speaker 1: TV off, But I like having the ambiance of having
58:09
Speaker 1: ESPN on in the background. Man, Stupid ESPN. They don't
58:12
Speaker 1: even show sports anymore. And they just took over red zone,
58:15
Speaker 1: so we'll see how that goes. The NFL red Zone.
58:18
Speaker 1: They better just not change a thing because NFL Red
58:21
Speaker 1: Zone is one of the best things. Man. The dude
58:24
Speaker 1: that they have, I think he is still he is
58:25
Speaker 1: still gonna be doing the commentary because if you've watched
58:29
Speaker 1: NFL Red Zone, it's it's excellent. Man. I know this
58:33
Speaker 1: isn't a side here when I'm trying to talk about
58:34
Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson, but NFL red Zone. I mean, you guys
58:37
Speaker 1: are familiar with the problem. It's just on for the
58:40
Speaker 1: entire the entirety of Sunday, basically with the one pm
58:43
Speaker 1: games and the four pm games for you know, East
58:47
Speaker 1: Coast times there, and they just go the switch between
58:52
Speaker 1: games like like double boxes, triple boxes, multiple games have
58:55
Speaker 1: action going on. They'll only go to the games, you
58:57
Speaker 1: know that have action going on, basically literally where teams
59:00
Speaker 1: are in the red zone about to score. They talk
59:02
Speaker 1: about like the fantasy impact of things. They talk about
59:05
Speaker 1: the impact of the games, you know, so you get
59:07
Speaker 1: the actual broadcast of all those games with the actual
59:10
Speaker 1: announcers that are in those games. But then they'll go
59:12
Speaker 1: back to you know, they'll have like the room, like
59:15
Speaker 1: the war room basically where they have their own guy,
59:18
Speaker 1: the red Zone guy. Forget his name, but he's good.
59:20
Speaker 1: He's been doing it, I think since the existence of
59:22
Speaker 1: Red Zone, if I'm not mistaken, he's really good at it,
59:25
Speaker 1: and he'll give you like the commentary about what is
59:27
Speaker 1: going on with all the games, Oh now we're switching
59:29
Speaker 1: to this game, etc. But I do think he is
59:32
Speaker 1: staying on with red Zone, so hopefully ESPN literally doesn't
59:36
Speaker 1: change anything whether because red zone is like one of
59:39
Speaker 1: the only things as far as sports broadcasting that's like
59:41
Speaker 1: almost literally perfect, so I think they should keep it.
59:45
Speaker 1: ESPN tried to do their own thing with if you remember,
59:48
Speaker 1: like probably a decade ago or so, they had a
59:51
Speaker 1: goal line and buzzer beater. So goal Line was like
59:54
Speaker 1: ESPN trying to do red zone for college football. But
59:57
Speaker 1: the problem was they were only able to show games
1:00:00
Speaker 1: that were on the ESPN like slate of network, so
1:00:03
Speaker 1: they could only show like ESPN, ABC whatever games, you know,
1:00:08
Speaker 1: So it was kind of annoying and they didn't switch
1:00:11
Speaker 1: the games very effectively at all. And then they did
1:00:13
Speaker 1: the same thing buzzer Beater as the college basketball version
1:00:16
Speaker 1: of that, which is they would try to go to
1:00:18
Speaker 1: games that were close late in the game on Saturdays
1:00:22
Speaker 1: and I think one of the days in the middle
1:00:24
Speaker 1: of the week. But anyway, that's a total aside there.
1:00:26
Speaker 1: I want to try to get this video done here.
1:00:28
Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson three point four to six ERA one point
1:00:31
Speaker 1: oh six whip on the season. Ryan Nelson has been
1:00:34
Speaker 1: good this season, even though I don't think he's that good.
1:00:36
Speaker 1: I've never thought he was that good, but maybe I
1:00:38
Speaker 1: have to change my mind, although maybe I won't do
1:00:40
Speaker 1: it here because he isn't as good on the road
1:00:42
Speaker 1: four point nine to three ERA in the road, and
1:00:45
Speaker 1: he's allowed nine home runs and fewer innings pitched on
1:00:48
Speaker 1: the road compared to three at home, so he's definitely
1:00:50
Speaker 1: worse on the road, even though his home stadium is
1:00:52
Speaker 1: a pretty hitter friendly, and he hasn't really been good
1:00:55
Speaker 1: this month except that he doesn't have a fourteen to
1:00:57
Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio, which is good. But he
1:01:00
Speaker 1: did give up five or and runs last time out
1:01:02
Speaker 1: against Texas, which isn't a great sign because that's not
1:01:05
Speaker 1: a really good offense. So though again I guess you
1:01:07
Speaker 1: could debate and say, well, he had six strikeouts and
1:01:10
Speaker 1: no walks in that game, so it wasn't as bad
1:01:12
Speaker 1: as it looked. I mean, I could see that being
1:01:14
Speaker 1: an argument as well. Colorado only has three hitters I've
1:01:17
Speaker 1: ever seen him before, but they are four for nine
1:01:20
Speaker 1: off him, so four forty four average on one thousand
1:01:23
Speaker 1: ops because they do have a double from Tovar off
1:01:25
Speaker 1: of him, but he is pretty unfamiliar to them, so
1:01:28
Speaker 1: that is this is why I kind of hesitate to
1:01:31
Speaker 1: go with the over in this particular one because Nelson
1:01:34
Speaker 1: is very unfamiliar to them, and unlike with the last
1:01:37
Speaker 1: two games that I gave out, where if you remember
1:01:40
Speaker 1: the last two games I gave out the over, both
1:01:43
Speaker 1: of the starting pitchers had just faced these opposing offenses.
1:01:46
Speaker 1: But when Nelson, that's not the case. I don't think
1:01:48
Speaker 1: he's ever actually made a start against this Colorado offense.
1:01:51
Speaker 1: And Chase Donander is pitching for Colorado. He's a rookie
1:01:54
Speaker 1: this year. He's young. I mean, he definitely has room
1:01:57
Speaker 1: for improvement, but he's really struggling this year. Six point
1:02:00
Speaker 1: three five ERA, one point five to six whip not good.
1:02:04
Speaker 1: He's been really bad at course field nine point three
1:02:06
Speaker 1: seven e RA, and he's given up more home runs
1:02:09
Speaker 1: in fewer innings pitched at home as well, nine home
1:02:12
Speaker 1: runs there, six on the road. So there are some
1:02:14
Speaker 1: indicators that it over makes sense here. Dollander, I think
1:02:19
Speaker 1: they were kind of sending him like they were like
1:02:22
Speaker 1: kind of sending him back and forth between the miners
1:02:25
Speaker 1: and the majors. So I think when he had that
1:02:27
Speaker 1: bad start against the White Sox in July, he failed
1:02:31
Speaker 1: to go even four innings, and either start in July,
1:02:34
Speaker 1: he walked six guys over six and a third innings,
1:02:36
Speaker 1: give him nineer runs. They sent him down and he
1:02:39
Speaker 1: came back up and he actually had a decent start,
1:02:41
Speaker 1: and now he's pitching on normal rest after he pitched
1:02:43
Speaker 1: five days ago at Saint Louis five innings pitch gave
1:02:46
Speaker 1: up one in run, did have three walks, which isn't
1:02:49
Speaker 1: very good, but he struck out five, so he did
1:02:50
Speaker 1: have a fairly good start in that one. So maybe
1:02:53
Speaker 1: Dollander is kind of starting to find something and pitch
1:02:56
Speaker 1: a little bit better. Against Arizona. They only have thirteen
1:02:59
Speaker 1: at bats and some Midalanders don't okay against them to
1:03:02
Speaker 1: thirty one average seven forty seven ops a little bit high,
1:03:05
Speaker 1: and Marte does have a home run off him. But
1:03:08
Speaker 1: uh again, that's my hesitation here because neither starting pitcher
1:03:11
Speaker 1: in this matchup actually just faced the opposing lineup. So
1:03:15
Speaker 1: this one, yeah, I'm not gonna recommend an over on
1:03:18
Speaker 1: this one. I could see maybe some indicators that the
1:03:21
Speaker 1: starting pitchers might actually not be as bad in this one.
1:03:23
Speaker 1: Total drop from twelve to eleven and a half. Although
1:03:26
Speaker 1: eighty percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the cash
1:03:28
Speaker 1: coming in on the over. And by the way, last
1:03:30
Speaker 1: night I give out the over eleven and a half
1:03:32
Speaker 1: with some a little bit of heavy juice last night,
1:03:35
Speaker 1: so it was a losing night for me. Obviously. I
1:03:37
Speaker 1: went one to two, but the total was up to
1:03:39
Speaker 1: twelve juice to the over by the time the game
1:03:41
Speaker 1: went off, So I had the better of the number
1:03:43
Speaker 1: last night on that over too, and it's still lost.
1:03:46
Speaker 1: It's so bad, man. You beat the closing number like
1:03:48
Speaker 1: that and it looks like the money was agreeing with you,
1:03:51
Speaker 1: with the professional money, and then you still don't get
1:03:53
Speaker 1: it right. I hate that. And by the way, the
1:03:55
Speaker 1: money in this one is actually fading Arizona. Maybe it's
1:03:58
Speaker 1: because Ryan Nelson is so bad on the road. I
1:04:01
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean he's not as bad as Dollander
1:04:03
Speaker 1: is at home, though, so I don't know Nelson. I mean,
1:04:06
Speaker 1: Arizona down for my win eighty to my as one
1:04:08
Speaker 1: fifty eight eighty six percent tickets only sixty seven percent
1:04:11
Speaker 1: of the cash. So the money is strongly indicating on
1:04:14
Speaker 1: Colorado here. Maybe it's just because of the price being
1:04:17
Speaker 1: too high. I mean, does Ryan Nelson ever warrant being
1:04:19
Speaker 1: that much of a favorite on the road. Probably not
1:04:23
Speaker 1: a dollander. Definitely a total wildcard here though, So we'll
1:04:25
Speaker 1: see what we get out of this game. Not going
1:04:28
Speaker 1: to be recommend to play for me at all. I mean,
1:04:30
Speaker 1: I could still see the game going over because the
1:04:32
Speaker 1: bullpens stink and you could see one or both starters
1:04:35
Speaker 1: still struggling here. I would not really disagree with the
1:04:39
Speaker 1: market move towards Colorado, but seems a little a little
1:04:43
Speaker 1: sketchy though, And I mean overall, Arizona is obviously the
1:04:46
Speaker 1: better team. And yeah, I mean, neither team has anything
1:04:49
Speaker 1: to play for though, so it's kind of a weird
1:04:51
Speaker 1: scenario there as far as trying to gauge what's gonna happen.
1:04:54
Speaker 1: As far as the side Tampa Bay at San Francisco.
1:04:58
Speaker 1: I thought San Francisco might actually find in their lost
1:05:00
Speaker 1: street yesterday and they had a leader only in the game,
1:05:03
Speaker 1: and they blew it again. San Francisco can't get a win.
1:05:07
Speaker 1: They're like the reverse Milwaukee. They've lost six straight. They're
1:05:12
Speaker 1: really sliding, man. They put themselves out of contention, you know,
1:05:16
Speaker 1: trade for Rafield devers and then you just fall apart.
1:05:19
Speaker 1: There you go, man, I told you at the time
1:05:22
Speaker 1: and I think a lot, a lot fewer people are
1:05:24
Speaker 1: gonna disagree with me now I said that was not
1:05:26
Speaker 1: a bad move for the Red Sox. They're trying to
1:05:28
Speaker 1: free up cap space. They're trying to move on, get
1:05:31
Speaker 1: this new Cora players that they have here. Devers will
1:05:35
Speaker 1: see you later, buddy, and you was just not a
1:05:37
Speaker 1: good fit, not a good locker room presence. He's gone.
1:05:40
Speaker 1: And San Francisco, I mean it has not helped them
1:05:42
Speaker 1: out really. I mean, their offense is still terrible. So
1:05:45
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay has the better of these two offenses. San
1:05:47
Speaker 1: Francisco does have the better bullpenal though even their bullpen
1:05:50
Speaker 1: has been kind of struggling recently. This whole team has
1:05:53
Speaker 1: just been awful recently. They're out of it. Tampa Bay
1:05:55
Speaker 1: is basically out of it too, So these teams are
1:05:57
Speaker 1: kind of playing for pride. San Francisco probably does want
1:06:00
Speaker 1: to come up, come out and actually try to win
1:06:02
Speaker 1: a game for once. I mean, when you've lost so
1:06:04
Speaker 1: many games in a row, I think you are going
1:06:06
Speaker 1: to be at least motivated to try to get a
1:06:07
Speaker 1: win somehow. Sarrancisco, I still give them a slight bullpen
1:06:12
Speaker 1: edge here, although they did use five relievers yesterday, didn't
1:06:15
Speaker 1: use any of the day before that. Tampa Bay didn't
1:06:18
Speaker 1: use any of the day before that either, and they
1:06:19
Speaker 1: used five yesterday as well. So the bullpen situation a
1:06:23
Speaker 1: little bit of a wash as far as the rest,
1:06:25
Speaker 1: but San Francisco generally does have the better of the
1:06:27
Speaker 1: two bullpens. Tampa has Adrian Houser pitching. He has a
1:06:32
Speaker 1: really good ERA this year two point eight four, but
1:06:34
Speaker 1: his whip indicates something else is going on there with
1:06:37
Speaker 1: a one point three to two whip that's definitely too high.
1:06:42
Speaker 1: He was good with the White Sox had he definitely
1:06:44
Speaker 1: had a good run with the White Sox this year,
1:06:46
Speaker 1: he hasn't been as good on the road three point
1:06:48
Speaker 1: eight six e R in the road. He was pitching
1:06:50
Speaker 1: well with the White Sox and then Tampa acquired him.
1:06:53
Speaker 1: When you look at his numbers with the White Sox,
1:06:55
Speaker 1: a lot of what he did was against some fairly
1:06:57
Speaker 1: weak offenses. I know he had some decent starts against
1:06:59
Speaker 1: some pretty good offenses in there too, but since he's
1:07:03
Speaker 1: been with Tampa he's been pretty bad. He has a
1:07:06
Speaker 1: seven point five ninety. I ran two starts with them,
1:07:08
Speaker 1: He's allowed five and four earned runs, hasn't gone six
1:07:12
Speaker 1: innings in either start. He's giving up seventeen hits, ten
1:07:15
Speaker 1: and two thirds innings, seven to four strike a walk ratio,
1:07:19
Speaker 1: both on the road against anaheiman Seattle. But he's on
1:07:21
Speaker 1: the road here too, Seattle pitcher friendly park. I know
1:07:24
Speaker 1: both those offenses are better than San Francisco's, though, so
1:07:28
Speaker 1: he is stepping down in class if he's a bad
1:07:30
Speaker 1: San Francisco offense, which I don't believe he's facing this year. Oh,
1:07:34
Speaker 1: by the way, I did forget to mention. I'm gonna
1:07:36
Speaker 1: jump back really quick. I forgot to mention. Interesting thing
1:07:38
Speaker 1: about Zach Lttel. Going back to Zach Lttel now pitching
1:07:42
Speaker 1: with the Reds, he actually pitched in Cincinnati with Tampa
1:07:46
Speaker 1: in Grand America Ballpark and he didn't do well. He
1:07:49
Speaker 1: went six innings, he got ten hits, five earned runs
1:07:51
Speaker 1: in that start. So Zach Lttel trying to adjust to
1:07:54
Speaker 1: pitching in Grand American Ballpark for the first time he
1:07:58
Speaker 1: had not pitched. I mean, yeah, he only pitched there
1:08:01
Speaker 1: as an opponent and he didn't really do well. So
1:08:04
Speaker 1: Lttel might struggle a little bit to adjust to that ballpark.
1:08:07
Speaker 1: So that's another thing. I'm just staying away from Cincinnati
1:08:10
Speaker 1: in that one. But anyway, back to a Howser here
1:08:12
Speaker 1: against San Francisco. Yeah, SF always plays for pride. Yeah,
1:08:16
Speaker 1: that's obviously true. They are the pride city, very much
1:08:19
Speaker 1: something to be proud of. You know, Harvey Milk and
1:08:22
Speaker 1: you know all the pooh that litters the streets there.
1:08:26
Speaker 1: You need white noise, Well, there's no way to block
1:08:30
Speaker 1: out that emergency broadcast signal man. Anyway, Howser again, he's
1:08:35
Speaker 1: been getting housed in his last couple of starts. Again,
1:08:38
Speaker 1: San Francisco is a really weak offense. They're the worst
1:08:41
Speaker 1: of these two offenses. So he is getting an easier
1:08:43
Speaker 1: assignment here than these last two outings. So maybe he
1:08:46
Speaker 1: will pitch better in this game because it is an
1:08:48
Speaker 1: easier opponent, and he's done well against San Francisco in
1:08:51
Speaker 1: the past. They're only five for thirty three off him,
1:08:53
Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, two walks, one fIF two batting average and
1:08:57
Speaker 1: four to twelve ops, so Howser has pretty well against him,
1:09:01
Speaker 1: and he's going up against Justin Verlander, where on the surface,
1:09:04
Speaker 1: I think people are gonna look at this and think, well,
1:09:05
Speaker 1: why would I take Adrian Houser of a Justin Verlander.
1:09:08
Speaker 1: But I mean everybody's got to know Verlander as well
1:09:11
Speaker 1: past this prime t I mean, he's out there, he's
1:09:13
Speaker 1: trying to do it. He's not allowing that many runs really,
1:09:16
Speaker 1: but four point five three era, I mean, it's good
1:09:19
Speaker 1: enough to stick in the starting rotation, but his one
1:09:21
Speaker 1: point five whip is pretty awful. I mean, you can't
1:09:24
Speaker 1: put one and a half guys on base and keep
1:09:26
Speaker 1: doing that, which I mean, I'm rooting for Verlander because
1:09:29
Speaker 1: I mean I've never really disliked the guy at all.
1:09:32
Speaker 1: You like to see him do well because he's gonna
1:09:33
Speaker 1: be in the Hall of Fame. But he's just not
1:09:35
Speaker 1: really doing it anymore. He's actually worse at home, even
1:09:38
Speaker 1: though it's a picture friendly ballpark here. Four point six
1:09:40
Speaker 1: six homey Ira not very good. Had a couple of
1:09:44
Speaker 1: decent starts in a row. He actually only allowed one
1:09:46
Speaker 1: or run across three starts against Atlanta and then two
1:09:49
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh, but he kind of slid back a little
1:09:52
Speaker 1: bit in his last starting his Washington gave up eleven
1:09:54
Speaker 1: hits and five and runs of five innings, so he
1:09:57
Speaker 1: was definitely very hittable in that game, he'sill have six strikeouts,
1:10:01
Speaker 1: almost said Dildo WNBA hasn't had a Doldo thrown in
1:10:05
Speaker 1: a while, which is very unfortunate. By the way, we
1:10:07
Speaker 1: want to see it keep happening. Otherwise nobody's gonna watch.
1:10:10
Speaker 1: But Verlander did have six strikeouts one walk in that
1:10:13
Speaker 1: last time, so his command has still been okay. He's
1:10:16
Speaker 1: only walked one in each of his last three starts,
1:10:19
Speaker 1: so he does have a Compared to those three walks,
1:10:21
Speaker 1: he has seventeen strikeouts, so his command has been on
1:10:24
Speaker 1: the right in his last few starts. Career numbers against
1:10:27
Speaker 1: Tampa and not a huge sample size thirty one at bats,
1:10:30
Speaker 1: six to three, strike out, walk race YO two fifty
1:10:32
Speaker 1: eight average a lot seven eleven ops, so his numbers
1:10:35
Speaker 1: are decent against Tampa. Is Verlander gonna pitch decently here? Though?
1:10:39
Speaker 1: I don't know, because again he's worse this year than
1:10:42
Speaker 1: he has been before. The money is coming in on
1:10:44
Speaker 1: Tampa here, and I'm not really gonna disagree with it.
1:10:47
Speaker 1: San Francisco down for minus one forty to minus one fifteen.
1:10:50
Speaker 1: I mean, baseball is streaky San Francisco. I mean they're
1:10:53
Speaker 1: looking like a team that knows that they're kind of
1:10:54
Speaker 1: out of it now. They're just they're just bad right now,
1:10:58
Speaker 1: A fifty eight percent of ticket sending the cash coming
1:11:01
Speaker 1: in on Tampa. I do think Howser at least who
1:11:04
Speaker 1: he is right now. I mean, he's a younger dude.
1:11:05
Speaker 1: I think you could argue he has the advantage over
1:11:08
Speaker 1: Verlander bullpens. Maybe you could argue a little bit of
1:11:11
Speaker 1: a wash. So again, I'm not really gonna disagree with it.
1:11:14
Speaker 1: The dildo nets, I thought that was a joke. I
1:11:17
Speaker 1: thought that was a sat tire article. I don't think
1:11:19
Speaker 1: they actually did that, because that's just ridiculous. They have
1:11:22
Speaker 1: to like put that around an entire like basketball arena.
1:11:25
Speaker 1: I don't think that actually happened. I thought that was
1:11:27
Speaker 1: a sat tire article. I thought it was like the
1:11:29
Speaker 1: Babylon b or something. San Diego at the Dodgers. This
1:11:33
Speaker 1: is a big series, man, And I told you yesterday
1:11:35
Speaker 1: I thought the Dodgers would bounce back from that ugly
1:11:38
Speaker 1: Anaheim series or Dodgers just can't beat Anaheim. Anaheim is
1:11:42
Speaker 1: a very strange team, man. Where Anaheim basically, I'm pretty
1:11:46
Speaker 1: sure I saw some weird stat that was like Anaheim
1:11:49
Speaker 1: beats like the Dodgers, the Red Sox and one other team,
1:11:52
Speaker 1: and they have a horrific record against everybody else this year,
1:11:55
Speaker 1: which is just I don't know, go figure. But the
1:11:57
Speaker 1: Dodgers got the win yesterday, so they retied San Diego
1:12:01
Speaker 1: in first place. I told you the Dodgers would be
1:12:03
Speaker 1: motivated here. This is a big series, man, Both of
1:12:06
Speaker 1: these teams now tied. Dodgers got the three to two
1:12:09
Speaker 1: win yesterday. Clayton Kershaw I got them a decent start yesterday.
1:12:12
Speaker 1: He's still out there doing it. Man. He's younger than Verlanders.
1:12:15
Speaker 1: He's still out there pitching. The Dodgers have the worst
1:12:18
Speaker 1: of these two bullpends, but they're pretty rested. They only
1:12:21
Speaker 1: us three relievers over the last two days. San Diego
1:12:25
Speaker 1: tends to use more of their bullpends. So if I
1:12:28
Speaker 1: was San Diego's manager, I would probably manage their bullpend differently.
1:12:31
Speaker 1: But San Diego, they're starting pitching, has kind of an
1:12:34
Speaker 1: issue where they don't go deep into games. Man. So
1:12:37
Speaker 1: that's kind of a problem with San Diego, and it
1:12:39
Speaker 1: might be the case today too. But they use four
1:12:41
Speaker 1: relievers yesterday. They ain't use any the day before that.
1:12:44
Speaker 1: But San Diego does have the better of these two bullpends.
1:12:46
Speaker 1: The Dodgers have the better offense and even better at home.
1:12:50
Speaker 1: This pitching matchup looks interesting though. There is the potential
1:12:53
Speaker 1: for this to be one of the better pitching duels
1:12:55
Speaker 1: of the day, but it depends which Dylan Cesari going
1:12:58
Speaker 1: to get for the Padres. He's got a not very
1:13:01
Speaker 1: good four point five to two ERA this year one
1:13:03
Speaker 1: point two eight whip which is not great, and he's
1:13:08
Speaker 1: been particularly bound on the road five point five two ERA.
1:13:11
Speaker 1: In the road. He pitches a lot better in that
1:13:12
Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park at home, but seees he was like
1:13:15
Speaker 1: quite good last year and he's just not been as
1:13:18
Speaker 1: good this year at all. He really is inefficient with
1:13:20
Speaker 1: his pitches because he's the guy that comes out. He
1:13:22
Speaker 1: strikes out a ton of guys, He walks too many guys,
1:13:26
Speaker 1: and he just doesn't get himself really deep into games man.
1:13:29
Speaker 1: Although he's been decent over the last the recent stratch
1:13:32
Speaker 1: here at least, I mean his team has won his
1:13:34
Speaker 1: last three starts, but his last two starts both this month.
1:13:37
Speaker 1: He's been good against Saint Louis and the Red Sox,
1:13:41
Speaker 1: although they were both at home. He has a sixteen
1:13:44
Speaker 1: to three strike a walk rational eleven innings and allowed
1:13:46
Speaker 1: two hour runs both in the game against the Red Sox. Yeah, Charles,
1:13:51
Speaker 1: I think it was a satire article. I don't know,
1:13:53
Speaker 1: rale I thank you, sir. I know I go long man,
1:13:56
Speaker 1: and you basically have to come in at the end
1:13:58
Speaker 1: of my show. You can go back and watch to
1:14:00
Speaker 1: the show I put out the I do the descript chapters. Now.
1:14:03
Speaker 1: It's eleven eleven. By the way, it's the witching time,
1:14:07
Speaker 1: I guess or whatever. Everybody dies or something. I don't know,
1:14:11
Speaker 1: especially me. But yeah, you can go back and watch
1:14:14
Speaker 1: at the end all you'll have the chapter out there
1:14:16
Speaker 1: with the best bet segment. But Dylan Cease, Yeah, he
1:14:19
Speaker 1: is pitching a little bit better right now. So he
1:14:21
Speaker 1: is in good form right now. His numbers against the
1:14:23
Speaker 1: Dodgers are actually not too bad, even though they're a
1:14:25
Speaker 1: good offense. He has one hundred and twenty four at
1:14:27
Speaker 1: bats against them, forty eight to thirteen strikeout walk right
1:14:30
Speaker 1: shows very Cease like a lot of strikeouts and too
1:14:34
Speaker 1: many walks. Two fifty eight batting average a lot pretty low,
1:14:37
Speaker 1: seven forty eight ohps not horrible, not too high. Otani
1:14:42
Speaker 1: has done a lot of damage to him nine for
1:14:44
Speaker 1: twenty five with three homers, but most of the rest
1:14:47
Speaker 1: of the line hasn't done a whole lot against him.
1:14:49
Speaker 1: I could Fort Doughs five for seventeen and no homers,
1:14:51
Speaker 1: but other than that, not really a ton going on
1:14:54
Speaker 1: against Cese. So he might do well here. And he's
1:14:56
Speaker 1: going up against Blake Snell, who's been injured for a
1:14:59
Speaker 1: lot of his time with the Dodgers. I mean, the
1:15:01
Speaker 1: Dodgers go out and they get Snell, they get Glass,
1:15:03
Speaker 1: and then they're just hurt the whole time. But Snell,
1:15:07
Speaker 1: I think he might be back. Man. He's got a
1:15:09
Speaker 1: two point three seveny RA this year, which is obviously good,
1:15:11
Speaker 1: although it is one point five to three whip is terrible.
1:15:14
Speaker 1: And I know, I usually say you gotta look at
1:15:16
Speaker 1: that whip as an indicator because you put guys on base,
1:15:19
Speaker 1: you're gonna allow runs. But for Snell, it's in such
1:15:22
Speaker 1: a small sample size. I'm not gonna say that Snell
1:15:25
Speaker 1: is bad right now. He's got a one point two
1:15:27
Speaker 1: to nine e RA in this at home this season,
1:15:29
Speaker 1: which is good. He's only made four starts, but the
1:15:32
Speaker 1: Dodgers won three of them. Hasn't alarmed more than three
1:15:35
Speaker 1: earned runs in any of them, or no, he's yeah,
1:15:36
Speaker 1: hasn't alumn more than three on runs in any of them.
1:15:39
Speaker 1: The Atlanta won five n earned runs were scored, so
1:15:42
Speaker 1: his defense lapsed in that one. He went five innings
1:15:45
Speaker 1: and all the other starts. But what we're looking at
1:15:47
Speaker 1: is what has he done recently since he came back
1:15:49
Speaker 1: from injury, because he had him pitched in April and
1:15:51
Speaker 1: I gave out the Dodgers first five innings in their
1:15:54
Speaker 1: last game against Toronto, and that was a winner the
1:15:56
Speaker 1: full game as a winner as well. He shut out Toronto.
1:15:59
Speaker 1: He went five innings, had ten strikeouts, three walks, which
1:16:02
Speaker 1: again kind of like see Snell does the same thing.
1:16:05
Speaker 1: He strikes out a lot of guys and he walks
1:16:07
Speaker 1: too many guys. But this month he is an eighteen
1:16:09
Speaker 1: to three strike out walk raceio two point seventy right
1:16:12
Speaker 1: across his two starts, eight hits in ten innings. He's
1:16:15
Speaker 1: gone five innings a piece and each starts, so he
1:16:18
Speaker 1: is pitching pretty well right now. Man one was at Tampa,
1:16:20
Speaker 1: which is a hitter friendly three training stadium there Steinburner Field,
1:16:25
Speaker 1: and the other was against Toronto, which their decent offense.
1:16:28
Speaker 1: So I do think Snell he's pretty much back, man.
1:16:31
Speaker 1: I'm ready to say that Snell is almost back into
1:16:33
Speaker 1: his full form. Here he's pitching against San Diego. I
1:16:36
Speaker 1: think he's actually his former team too, right, Yeah, he
1:16:38
Speaker 1: was on Tampa Bay, San Diego, San Francisco, now the Dodgers,
1:16:42
Speaker 1: but he's pitched against San Diego before since he's been
1:16:44
Speaker 1: off their team. But overall, he's got good numbers against
1:16:47
Speaker 1: him in eighty six at bats twenty seven to ten
1:16:49
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio again has a lot of strike
1:16:51
Speaker 1: cuts and too many walks, so again similar to Cease,
1:16:55
Speaker 1: but better numbers than seas two to poh nine batting
1:16:58
Speaker 1: average a five ninety four. Yes, I think Snell is
1:17:01
Speaker 1: the better pitcher. So I would have a slight lean
1:17:04
Speaker 1: to the Dodgers in the first five innings here, and
1:17:06
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on them a little bit
1:17:07
Speaker 1: up for minus one twenty five to minus one twenty seven,
1:17:10
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on them, with fifty
1:17:12
Speaker 1: one percent of the tickets on San Diego. The under
1:17:16
Speaker 1: might be worth a look in this game, though, maybe
1:17:18
Speaker 1: more so than Dodgers. If you go Dodgers. I would
1:17:20
Speaker 1: go first five and just go with Snell to outpitch
1:17:22
Speaker 1: Cease because I don't like the Dodgers' bullpend very much.
1:17:25
Speaker 1: I'll be an under. Maybe worth a look here. Uh,
1:17:29
Speaker 1: maybe still including the bullpens because San Diego's is at
1:17:32
Speaker 1: least pretty good, and these pitchers might get you a
1:17:34
Speaker 1: little bit deeper into this game. But you do have
1:17:36
Speaker 1: to worry about the Dodgers' bullpen not being that good.
1:17:39
Speaker 1: Totals dropped a little bit with a more juice on
1:17:42
Speaker 1: the under eight. It's headed towards seven and a half,
1:17:44
Speaker 1: sixty two percent of tickets on the over at ninety
1:17:46
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. So the osweaker's
1:17:48
Speaker 1: kind of thinking this will be a more of a
1:17:50
Speaker 1: pitching duel here, and I could see that being the
1:17:52
Speaker 1: case as well. So do with that what you will?
1:17:56
Speaker 1: Eleven eleven is wishing time. Yeah, that's right. Uh, that's
1:17:58
Speaker 1: the more positive way to look at it. You can
1:18:00
Speaker 1: make a wish and then we have Anaheim at the
1:18:03
Speaker 1: A's here. I mean, this is a game. Neither of
1:18:06
Speaker 1: these teams are going anywhere. We have two terrible bullpens.
1:18:08
Speaker 1: The A's have the better offense, and then neither offense
1:18:11
Speaker 1: is really that bad. The A's won yesterday ten to three,
1:18:14
Speaker 1: so that was an over game. So I think I
1:18:16
Speaker 1: mentioned you might want to look towards an over in
1:18:18
Speaker 1: that game, and it did happen yesterday. Bullpen usage, I mean,
1:18:22
Speaker 1: I don't know if it matters too much because the
1:18:24
Speaker 1: handicap is these bullpens stink. The A's used four of
1:18:27
Speaker 1: them yesterday, neither team played the day before that. Anaheim
1:18:31
Speaker 1: only used two relievers yesterday, and their better relievers are
1:18:33
Speaker 1: kind of still available. But I don't trust the bullpens.
1:18:37
Speaker 1: I don't think there's really much of a reason to
1:18:38
Speaker 1: trust these starting pitchers either. Tyler Anderson for Anaheim, he's
1:18:42
Speaker 1: not very good. Four point six three ERA, one point
1:18:45
Speaker 1: four whip. He's pretty bad on the road, five point
1:18:49
Speaker 1: five two RA on the road, and we know this
1:18:51
Speaker 1: A's Sacramento Stadium very hit her friendly. Anderson actually is
1:18:56
Speaker 1: on a delayed start here. He pitched ten days ago
1:18:59
Speaker 1: and then they pushed his most recent start back because
1:19:02
Speaker 1: of an injury, and he's gonna pitch now today tonight.
1:19:06
Speaker 1: But he hasn't been good over his last few starts.
1:19:08
Speaker 1: He's failed to go five innings in two of the three.
1:19:10
Speaker 1: He's a lot multiple runs in all three this month.
1:19:14
Speaker 1: He has a seven point two ERA ten to three
1:19:16
Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is pretty good, but he's a
1:19:18
Speaker 1: lot four in runs and he's allowed six home runs.
1:19:23
Speaker 1: It was against the White Sox in Tampa. Not really
1:19:25
Speaker 1: the most prolific offenses either. Anderson not in a very
1:19:28
Speaker 1: good form right now. His numbers against the A's are mediocre.
1:19:32
Speaker 1: I would say, maybe bad enough that an over still
1:19:35
Speaker 1: might might be worth a look in this one. Fifty
1:19:38
Speaker 1: at bats ten end strike a walk ratio not good.
1:19:41
Speaker 1: Two forty batting average is low, but an eight oh
1:19:43
Speaker 1: seven OPS is pretty high. He's a lot three home runs,
1:19:46
Speaker 1: although two of them are Rooker. But Anderson, he doesn't
1:19:49
Speaker 1: do particularly well against the A's and he's going up
1:19:52
Speaker 1: against Luis Morales for the a'ss, a young twenty two
1:19:55
Speaker 1: year old who has a one point nine to three
1:19:57
Speaker 1: year and one point nine to three whip, which is
1:20:01
Speaker 1: bizarre that you have the same whip as her, and
1:20:03
Speaker 1: that whip is way too high. I don't know what
1:20:05
Speaker 1: we're gonna get on the Morales at all. Man. He's
1:20:08
Speaker 1: only made one start in his Major league career. I
1:20:10
Speaker 1: know he's young. I haven't really looked at his scouting report.
1:20:12
Speaker 1: I just looked at what he's done so far in
1:20:14
Speaker 1: the majors this year, and I'm not totally impressed. We're
1:20:17
Speaker 1: probably not gonna get a long start out of him.
1:20:19
Speaker 1: He's gone two winnings and two and two thirds, and
1:20:21
Speaker 1: he's in his two outings six walks to four strikeouts
1:20:24
Speaker 1: against Arizona and Baltimore, so one good offense and one
1:20:28
Speaker 1: bad offense. And he walked five guys against the bad
1:20:30
Speaker 1: offense Baltimore, so that's not a great sign. He didn't
1:20:33
Speaker 1: allow when he runs or hits, but he'll be an
1:20:36
Speaker 1: opener probably, so you're gonna get him, and then you're
1:20:38
Speaker 1: gonna get the A's bopeen for most of this game.
1:20:41
Speaker 1: So to me, it doesn't look very good. To me,
1:20:44
Speaker 1: I would probably be leaning over. It looks like the
1:20:46
Speaker 1: money is agreeing with that. It's up from ten to
1:20:48
Speaker 1: ten and a half juice to the over. It's headed
1:20:50
Speaker 1: towards eleven. If you want to get the over, you
1:20:52
Speaker 1: probably gotta try to get the over ten and a
1:20:54
Speaker 1: half because eleven is a key number obviously, eleven eleven
1:20:58
Speaker 1: ninety percent tickets nine un percent than the cash on
1:21:00
Speaker 1: the over, and the money's coming in on the A's.
1:21:03
Speaker 1: I mean fading Tyler Anderson, which I can agree with
1:21:06
Speaker 1: fading Tyler Anderson, but I don't know that I want
1:21:08
Speaker 1: any part of what Oakland is doing here or the
1:21:10
Speaker 1: A's are doing here. Fifty one percent of tickets on Anheim,
1:21:13
Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash coming in on the A's. Yeah,
1:21:16
Speaker 1: I mean, so the strong market indicator on the A's.
1:21:19
Speaker 1: But I think the personally my preference in that game
1:21:22
Speaker 1: would be another over. But that's not gonna be a play.
1:21:26
Speaker 1: We'll go to my plays now, the best bets, and
1:21:28
Speaker 1: then I'll do I'll talk about an NFL preseason at
1:21:32
Speaker 1: the end. I'm not gonna do every NFL preseason game, though.
1:21:34
Speaker 1: My first bet is gonna be Toronto Blue Jays, and
1:21:37
Speaker 1: because the line is up a little bit too high here,
1:21:39
Speaker 1: I'm gonna recommend either finding a minus one run line
1:21:42
Speaker 1: on it, so if they win the game by one,
1:21:44
Speaker 1: it'll push. If they win by more than that, you
1:21:46
Speaker 1: win the bet, or you could basically make your own
1:21:49
Speaker 1: minus one run line and maybe get a better price
1:21:50
Speaker 1: on it by splitting half the bet on the minus
1:21:53
Speaker 1: one and a half run line at plus one thirty five,
1:21:55
Speaker 1: and the other on the money line and minus one
1:21:58
Speaker 1: fifty four or so, and then they're only paying a
1:22:00
Speaker 1: little bit more than you would on like a straight
1:22:02
Speaker 1: up like minus one ten bet if you do it
1:22:05
Speaker 1: this way, So this is kind of the way that
1:22:06
Speaker 1: I like to do it. You can do it at
1:22:08
Speaker 1: different books too, with each bet if you have multiple
1:22:10
Speaker 1: outs there to find the best number that you can,
1:22:12
Speaker 1: and then if they win the game outright, you'll still
1:22:14
Speaker 1: wind up winning just a small amount of money. I
1:22:16
Speaker 1: know it's not really going balls to the wall here,
1:22:19
Speaker 1: but that's the way that I look at this game.
1:22:21
Speaker 1: I know Toronto they're gonna be the public team. I
1:22:24
Speaker 1: know they're the hot team right now. I'm went with
1:22:26
Speaker 1: Texas yesterday. I thought Texas should have won this game.
1:22:29
Speaker 1: But this matchup just looks like it's too much in
1:22:32
Speaker 1: favor of Toronto here. Man, They're off to finus one
1:22:34
Speaker 1: thirty five to minus one fifty six, eight percent of tickets,
1:22:37
Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash coming in on them. It
1:22:40
Speaker 1: is a battle of lefties here. I know they're public,
1:22:42
Speaker 1: but it looks like the professional money's kind of agreeing
1:22:44
Speaker 1: with Toronto's. The money line has gone up so far
1:22:48
Speaker 1: on them. Toronto's in a little bit of a better
1:22:50
Speaker 1: spot now because they return home from a road or no,
1:22:52
Speaker 1: they didn't return home from roach Ro. What am I
1:22:54
Speaker 1: saying they were coming up of a big series against
1:22:56
Speaker 1: the Cops? My mistake. So it was a little bit
1:22:58
Speaker 1: of a letdown spot still for them though, But they're
1:23:00
Speaker 1: staying at home, so that's my mistake. I forget if
1:23:03
Speaker 1: I said they were returning home from a road trip.
1:23:05
Speaker 1: If I did, that would have been my mistake yesterday.
1:23:07
Speaker 1: But Toronto, I thought that they had a rest disadvantage
1:23:11
Speaker 1: yesterday because Texas hadn't played the day before that. But
1:23:14
Speaker 1: now the way Texas blew that game, I think Texas
1:23:17
Speaker 1: is really on the ropes here, man. I know Texas
1:23:20
Speaker 1: doesn't need to show up because they're trying to make
1:23:22
Speaker 1: the playoffs, but Toronto still needs to win games too
1:23:25
Speaker 1: because they know Boston and the Yankees could potentially catch them.
1:23:29
Speaker 1: I mean, Toronto, I don't think it's really as good
1:23:31
Speaker 1: as either the Red Sox were the Yankees. If you
1:23:33
Speaker 1: look at the team's run differentials on the season, Toronto's
1:23:36
Speaker 1: is worse than both the Red Sox and the Yankees,
1:23:39
Speaker 1: so Toronto they're gonna show up as well. And I
1:23:42
Speaker 1: think after the way Texas blew that game the momentum,
1:23:44
Speaker 1: I kind of shift to Toronto here a little bit. Yes,
1:23:47
Speaker 1: Texas does have the better bullpen, but when we're going
1:23:52
Speaker 1: full game like this on the run line, I think
1:23:53
Speaker 1: it does make sense to include the bullpens. Texas used
1:23:55
Speaker 1: five relief pitchers yesterday, so their bullpend, even though they
1:23:58
Speaker 1: rested the day before, that is it's not the greatest spot. Toronto,
1:24:02
Speaker 1: I know, did use five of their own, I guess,
1:24:05
Speaker 1: but I think it's a little bit of a wash.
1:24:07
Speaker 1: I know Texas bullpen is a bit better, but we'll
1:24:10
Speaker 1: go with Toronto here. Toronto does have a significantly better offense.
1:24:13
Speaker 1: Toronto is good at home. Toronto forty one and twenty
1:24:17
Speaker 1: at home, and the Rangers are twenty four and thirty
1:24:19
Speaker 1: six on the road. I know I liked the Rangers yesterday,
1:24:22
Speaker 1: but hopefully we get this one right today. Man, Toronto
1:24:25
Speaker 1: just is way better at home than Texas is on
1:24:27
Speaker 1: the road, and the starting pitching matchup is a huge
1:24:29
Speaker 1: part of this handicap. Patrick Corman, I think it's it's
1:24:33
Speaker 1: a spot where you can fade this guy. I mean,
1:24:35
Speaker 1: he's been a guy that's been a complete fade over
1:24:37
Speaker 1: the last few years. I know this year he's had
1:24:39
Speaker 1: kind of a resurgence a bit better with the Rangers,
1:24:42
Speaker 1: but he's starting to slide a little bit. He's got
1:24:44
Speaker 1: a four R now one point three to two whip
1:24:47
Speaker 1: is really not very good, and he's been worse on
1:24:50
Speaker 1: the road. The four point three to three r on
1:24:52
Speaker 1: the road, so he is more beatable on the road.
1:24:54
Speaker 1: And he's been in bad form over his last few starts.
1:24:57
Speaker 1: He's gone five or fewer innings and all three of
1:24:59
Speaker 1: them starts walk three guys in all three of those starts.
1:25:03
Speaker 1: Last two outings he failed to make it past four
1:25:05
Speaker 1: to thirty in either outing. I know it was against
1:25:07
Speaker 1: the Yankees and the Phillies. Those are good offenses. Toronto's
1:25:10
Speaker 1: not as good as that, but bad numbers this month
1:25:13
Speaker 1: seven point three six ERA, four to six strike a
1:25:16
Speaker 1: walk ratio. He's not doing well, and his numbers against
1:25:19
Speaker 1: Toronto are bad as well. In fifty nine at bats,
1:25:22
Speaker 1: eighteen to two strike a walk ratio is good, but
1:25:24
Speaker 1: he's a lot of three twenty two average and eight
1:25:26
Speaker 1: seventy oh ps to them, so Toronto has hit him around,
1:25:30
Speaker 1: even though the only home run is from France. But Corman,
1:25:33
Speaker 1: I think it's about fade time for him here and
1:25:35
Speaker 1: he's going up against Eric Lauer, who has surprisingly been
1:25:38
Speaker 1: one of the best starters for Toronto since they've had
1:25:41
Speaker 1: him in the starting rotation. Two point eight two ERA,
1:25:44
Speaker 1: one point zero six WHIP. His numbers are really good
1:25:46
Speaker 1: and he's even better at home with a two point
1:25:49
Speaker 1: five to seventy RRA, So the splits line up for him.
1:25:51
Speaker 1: He had a bad start last time out, there's no
1:25:53
Speaker 1: doubt about that, but I think that's a little bit
1:25:55
Speaker 1: more of a blip because it was on the road
1:25:57
Speaker 1: against the Dodgers. He was coming off pitching well at
1:25:59
Speaker 1: Call which, as one of you guys in the chat mentioned,
1:26:03
Speaker 1: he had bad stats in course field throughout his career,
1:26:06
Speaker 1: but he pitched really well in that starting against Colorado.
1:26:08
Speaker 1: Gave him one on run and six innings, four strikeouts,
1:26:11
Speaker 1: one walk. Yes, he had a bad start last time out,
1:26:13
Speaker 1: only lasted three innings, three on runs, allowed four walks
1:26:17
Speaker 1: four strikeouts though against the Dodgers, but again it was
1:26:20
Speaker 1: his fourth straight road start. It was the only really
1:26:22
Speaker 1: bad start of those, So I'm gonna give him a
1:26:25
Speaker 1: pass for that because the Dodgers, they're the best home
1:26:28
Speaker 1: offense in all of baseball. So I think he will
1:26:31
Speaker 1: bounce back here. He had a thirty to three strike
1:26:33
Speaker 1: out walk Razier in two point seven to ninety right
1:26:36
Speaker 1: in July, and then he had one good start at Colorado,
1:26:39
Speaker 1: like I said, this month, So really he just has
1:26:40
Speaker 1: that one bad start. I think it's a blip. I
1:26:43
Speaker 1: think he bounces back against a much weaker Ranger offense,
1:26:46
Speaker 1: and Lower has actually dominated them. In thirty five career
1:26:49
Speaker 1: at bats, only have five hits, one extra base hit
1:26:52
Speaker 1: a double from Seger, eight to three strike out walk
1:26:54
Speaker 1: ratio one forty three average allowed, three eighty two oh ps.
1:26:58
Speaker 1: So we're looking at some really wide matchup number discrepancy's here,
1:27:02
Speaker 1: and I think Lower is obviously the better starter. If
1:27:04
Speaker 1: you want to go Toronto, run line in the first
1:27:06
Speaker 1: five innings and avoid the bullpens, you could do that too,
1:27:09
Speaker 1: but Toronto will be the play for me here. Nate,
1:27:12
Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out, Nate the Great,
1:27:15
Speaker 1: And that's right, what's up, guys, and we'll go to
1:27:18
Speaker 1: my final play, which is a total, because you know
1:27:19
Speaker 1: I have to have a total, and I'm going back
1:27:21
Speaker 1: to the unders being the undertaker again. You know, those
1:27:24
Speaker 1: overs are not working out for me with those stupid
1:27:26
Speaker 1: Corus Field games. So how about an under in a
1:27:28
Speaker 1: game where nobody's gonna want to play an under with
1:27:31
Speaker 1: Seattle and the Mets. What am I crazy? This is
1:27:33
Speaker 1: an eleven to nine. Finally, yesterday with Seattle winning, cal
1:27:37
Speaker 1: Raley hit another home run. Cal Raley out there is
1:27:41
Speaker 1: setting records, you know for home runs hit by a
1:27:43
Speaker 1: catcher or whatever. Absolutely, nobody's gonna want to play an
1:27:46
Speaker 1: under in Seattle on the Mets. Everybody thinks of them
1:27:48
Speaker 1: as offensive teams, which they are. They both have good offenses.
1:27:53
Speaker 1: The bullpens are really used, which is why I'm gonna
1:27:55
Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave the bullpens out of this equation. I
1:27:58
Speaker 1: don't trust the bullpens here. Seattle's is I would say,
1:28:00
Speaker 1: the somewhat better of the two bullpens. But we saw
1:28:03
Speaker 1: a lot of bullpen you suggested today and that crazy
1:28:05
Speaker 1: eleven to nine games, So we'll avoid the bullpens here.
1:28:09
Speaker 1: I will just go with the starting pitching matchup. The
1:28:11
Speaker 1: first five innings here because I don't know what's gonna
1:28:13
Speaker 1: happen with the bullpens. This is the type of starting
1:28:15
Speaker 1: pitching matchup. I really like to hone in on Man
1:28:18
Speaker 1: and again, I think we're gonna get value on this
1:28:20
Speaker 1: number on the under because nobody knows who the hell
1:28:22
Speaker 1: the Mets starting pitcher is. Everybody knows Brian wu is good.
1:28:25
Speaker 1: He's pitching for Seattle. Yes, he is very good. Three
1:28:29
Speaker 1: point oh eight ra point nine to five whip on
1:28:31
Speaker 1: the season. He's one of the rare pitchers with a
1:28:33
Speaker 1: below one WHIP. I know he's way better at home,
1:28:36
Speaker 1: so he's not as good on the road three point
1:28:37
Speaker 1: six two ur in the road. But the Mets have
1:28:40
Speaker 1: just been struggling Man and Wu is pitching well. After
1:28:43
Speaker 1: he had kind of a blip against the as So
1:28:45
Speaker 1: that was at that a stadium where a lot of
1:28:47
Speaker 1: pitchers struggled there, and it was because he gave up
1:28:49
Speaker 1: four home runs, but a strikeout walk ratio continue to
1:28:52
Speaker 1: be really good, and then this month he is an
1:28:54
Speaker 1: eighteen to one strike out walk ratio, two point seven
1:28:57
Speaker 1: to seven ERA, thirteen innings, pitch, nine hits allowed. Yeah.
1:29:02
Speaker 1: Against the White Sox in Tampa. I mean, the Mets
1:29:04
Speaker 1: are step up offensively from those two teams, but still,
1:29:07
Speaker 1: he's Brian Wo. I mean, he's pretty consistent. He's in
1:29:10
Speaker 1: good form right now. He's pitching well, So I'm not
1:29:12
Speaker 1: gonna I'm not gonna think that he's not gonna pitch
1:29:15
Speaker 1: well here. And the Mets have basically never seen him before.
1:29:18
Speaker 1: Only one Soto has seen him before. I know Soto
1:29:21
Speaker 1: has hit him hard. He's two for five in the
1:29:23
Speaker 1: home run, a double, a walk, of two strikeouts. But
1:29:26
Speaker 1: the rest of the Mets lineup has never faced Brian
1:29:29
Speaker 1: Wu before. So I think Wu has a big unfamiliarity
1:29:32
Speaker 1: at you. When you have these young pitchers, especially proven
1:29:34
Speaker 1: ones like Wu who we know are actually really good,
1:29:37
Speaker 1: these starting pitch these starting hitters, can you know, have
1:29:40
Speaker 1: they take some time to adjust to trying to face
1:29:43
Speaker 1: this guy. I mean, I know there's gonna be footage
1:29:45
Speaker 1: on him out there because he's pitched for a couple
1:29:47
Speaker 1: of years in the majors now, but there's nothing like
1:29:49
Speaker 1: trying to face him in a real game environment. So
1:29:52
Speaker 1: early on first five innings, the Mets might struggle to
1:29:56
Speaker 1: try to figure him out, and then Nolan McClain is
1:29:59
Speaker 1: pitching four not Don McLean American pie Baby. He's making
1:30:03
Speaker 1: his major league debut for the Mets, and if you
1:30:05
Speaker 1: look at his numbers in the minors, he's actually been
1:30:08
Speaker 1: pretty good. His Triple A numbers pretty good this year.
1:30:11
Speaker 1: He has well over won strike up er inning. He's
1:30:14
Speaker 1: got something like eighty something strikeouts and sixty something in
1:30:16
Speaker 1: he's pitch a thirty something walks, So again the walk
1:30:19
Speaker 1: numbers too high, but he has a really high strikeout rate.
1:30:23
Speaker 1: His whip is like one point one something at Triple
1:30:26
Speaker 1: A this year and his ERA is like two point
1:30:28
Speaker 1: three or something like that. I think. So he's pitching
1:30:31
Speaker 1: well in the minors, so I think he might be
1:30:33
Speaker 1: ready to come up and make a major league start.
1:30:35
Speaker 1: Here Man is he was a highly drafted prospect. He's
1:30:40
Speaker 1: considered to be one of the best prospects. He's like
1:30:42
Speaker 1: one of the top pitching prospects in the Mets organization.
1:30:46
Speaker 1: He is coming up here again, his minor league numbers
1:30:48
Speaker 1: look good, and looking at his scouting report, he does
1:30:51
Speaker 1: have an arsenal that should translate to the major leagues
1:30:53
Speaker 1: here Man, because he has five pitches that he throws.
1:30:56
Speaker 1: Although he generally kind of throws the top three pitches,
1:30:59
Speaker 1: which he is like a mid nineties fastball. He has
1:31:02
Speaker 1: a sweeper that's supposed to be like basically an elite
1:31:05
Speaker 1: pitch with a lot of movement that can fool hitters.
1:31:07
Speaker 1: That's like his best pitch, kind of like a sweeping slider,
1:31:11
Speaker 1: I guess. And then he does throw I believe a
1:31:14
Speaker 1: change up. He has a change up in a curveball. Actually,
1:31:18
Speaker 1: I'd have to look at the scout and reporting. I
1:31:19
Speaker 1: think maybe a sinker is his number three pitch actually,
1:31:22
Speaker 1: so it might be sweeper fastball sinker, so kind of
1:31:25
Speaker 1: a fastball mix. But then I think his lesser pitches
1:31:28
Speaker 1: are kind of the like way off more off speed
1:31:30
Speaker 1: stuff like the curveball and change up, which I think
1:31:33
Speaker 1: he's trying to add to his arsenal. But still, he's
1:31:36
Speaker 1: a highly touted prospect. He looks good at Triple A,
1:31:39
Speaker 1: and you're gonna be getting a situation here where he's
1:31:42
Speaker 1: a young, talented pitcher and the opposing offense has never
1:31:45
Speaker 1: seen him before, and I know it's risky with the
1:31:47
Speaker 1: guy who might be out there, you know, with a
1:31:49
Speaker 1: lot of nerves here and the Mets have played really
1:31:51
Speaker 1: really poorly recent the Mets. They just can't get it right.
1:31:54
Speaker 1: They just keep losing the Mets around a horrible, horrible
1:31:57
Speaker 1: losing stretch right now. But I think that you're gonna
1:32:00
Speaker 1: get decent's starts out of both these pitchers. There's a
1:32:03
Speaker 1: lot of unfamiliarity here with the hitters, so I think
1:32:05
Speaker 1: we're gonna see the hitters actually struggle. I think we
1:32:07
Speaker 1: get a little bit more value because these are two
1:32:09
Speaker 1: good offenses for the most part, and we saw a
1:32:12
Speaker 1: lot of runs scored in yesterday's game. So the under
1:32:14
Speaker 1: first five innings is where I'm going here. The market
1:32:18
Speaker 1: read is saying over fifty tickets seventy four percent of
1:32:21
Speaker 1: the cash on the over. I'm not gonna buy it. Though.
1:32:23
Speaker 1: We're seeing the total sitting at eight and a half
1:32:24
Speaker 1: and again a four and a half for the first
1:32:26
Speaker 1: five innings. I would play that you could go under
1:32:29
Speaker 1: four as well if you get a better price on it.
1:32:31
Speaker 1: It's not a huge difference between those two numbers, but
1:32:34
Speaker 1: I think that's a decent price on this first five
1:32:36
Speaker 1: inning total. Man, again, I just don't like that the
1:32:38
Speaker 1: bullpens are kind of overworked here, And yeah, I mean
1:32:42
Speaker 1: that's about it. And as far as the side, the
1:32:44
Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Mets. Surprisingly minus won
1:32:47
Speaker 1: twenty five down to minus one oh nine on Seattle.
1:32:50
Speaker 1: Excuse me, sixty one percent of tickets on Seattle, fifty
1:32:53
Speaker 1: two percent of the cash coming in on the Mets.
1:32:55
Speaker 1: So the money is coming in on the Mets expecting
1:32:58
Speaker 1: McLain to actually pitch, well, you're which I think that
1:33:00
Speaker 1: bodes well for our under because he's obviously by far
1:33:03
Speaker 1: the less proven of these two pitchers. But if the money,
1:33:07
Speaker 1: professional money is gonna back McLay in here, I think
1:33:10
Speaker 1: there's something to that. So I think that does mean
1:33:11
Speaker 1: there's something to this under play here. So that's what
1:33:14
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. This is a very toad esque play here.
1:33:16
Speaker 1: We're going back to my bread and butter here, my
1:33:19
Speaker 1: roots here, and that's gonna be the way that goes.
1:33:22
Speaker 1: Man Again, the Mets more, Yeah, three games in a
1:33:24
Speaker 1: row they've lost, Yeah, and just they've lost a ton
1:33:27
Speaker 1: of games recently. Man, They've only won two games over
1:33:29
Speaker 1: the past like a few weeks, which is just ridiculous.
1:33:32
Speaker 1: And the Mets are still in the playoff. On both
1:33:35
Speaker 1: these teams fighting for playoff spots as well, So it's
1:33:37
Speaker 1: a really interesting set up there. But that's that play
1:33:41
Speaker 1: a dangerous under That's that's why I like it. Man.
1:33:45
Speaker 1: I'm not covering America by Oh thank you sir, my originals.
1:33:48
Speaker 1: I'm I'm I'm Ukulele offying some of my really old originals.
1:33:53
Speaker 1: And I just did the first originals that actually wrote
1:33:55
Speaker 1: for Ukulele or all the that low Leait of Diaries
1:33:59
Speaker 1: album that I put so shout out to her again.
1:34:01
Speaker 1: So that's out there now on YouTube. A couple of
1:34:04
Speaker 1: my old originals that I wrote way back in high
1:34:06
Speaker 1: school and I used to do. I have Midi instrumentation
1:34:09
Speaker 1: for those. I have like a Midi project and I
1:34:11
Speaker 1: put my vocals on them. But I'm translating some of
1:34:14
Speaker 1: those songs into yuke as well, which I posted one
1:34:16
Speaker 1: of those yesterday too. America Pie I've not done, but
1:34:20
Speaker 1: that's definitely a possibility I could do that. If I
1:34:24
Speaker 1: do that, Josie will probably want to use that for
1:34:26
Speaker 1: a Pie video, so that's kind of an added bonus,
1:34:29
Speaker 1: I guess, so maybe I'll think about doing that. It's
1:34:31
Speaker 1: a long song though, but it's very repetitive, so it's
1:34:34
Speaker 1: it's probably pretty easy to play on Yuke, to be honest,
1:34:36
Speaker 1: it's very simple. I think not too many chords in
1:34:39
Speaker 1: that song anyway. And I like danger Man as far
1:34:43
Speaker 1: as the dangerous unders, you know me, I like to
1:34:45
Speaker 1: go contrarian. So that's the thing NFL. I mean, I
1:34:48
Speaker 1: don't have time to talk about every one of these games.
1:34:50
Speaker 1: We have eleven NFL games today, it's pre season. But
1:34:53
Speaker 1: I will say that when you have lines that look
1:34:55
Speaker 1: like they're totally out of whack, you know that that
1:34:57
Speaker 1: means like the starters are playing for that team as
1:34:59
Speaker 1: opposed to the the other team. Like the Colts are
1:35:01
Speaker 1: up from a four and a half point fair to
1:35:03
Speaker 1: a six point favorite. They were a favorite in their
1:35:05
Speaker 1: first preseason game, and they still lost to the Ravens.
1:35:08
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna mention that because I actually kind of
1:35:10
Speaker 1: like one of the sides in the Ravens game today
1:35:12
Speaker 1: a little bit. But the Colts, they actually outgained the
1:35:16
Speaker 1: Ravens by one hundred and forty yards in that game.
1:35:18
Speaker 1: The Colts they got kind of screwed over. The Ravens
1:35:20
Speaker 1: had a punt return touchdown early in the game. Anthony
1:35:23
Speaker 1: Richardson dislocated his finger early in the game, So that
1:35:27
Speaker 1: really kind of threw the Colts out of whack here.
1:35:29
Speaker 1: So I don't know if the Colts have Anthony Richardson
1:35:31
Speaker 1: in this game, but this spread here does indicate to
1:35:34
Speaker 1: me that Daniel Jones is probably gonna get a big
1:35:36
Speaker 1: workload in this game for the Colts because they still
1:35:38
Speaker 1: have to figure out who their opening day starter is
1:35:40
Speaker 1: even gonna be. Probably it would indicate to me that
1:35:43
Speaker 1: Jordan Love is not gonna see the field for the Packers,
1:35:45
Speaker 1: would be my guests. I haven't looked into it because again,
1:35:48
Speaker 1: I just don't really do the work. There's just too
1:35:49
Speaker 1: much going on. I just don't bother at the preseason,
1:35:52
Speaker 1: but I know there's money to be made there, and
1:35:54
Speaker 1: like I said at the top of the show, unfortunately
1:35:57
Speaker 1: I've said going with team totals over is kind of
1:36:00
Speaker 1: a good way to go, and I think every single
1:36:02
Speaker 1: one of them is hit. So if you want to
1:36:03
Speaker 1: look at the Colts that way, because the Colts are
1:36:06
Speaker 1: gonna have like their first string offense out there for
1:36:08
Speaker 1: a bit, you want to go over the Colts team total.
1:36:10
Speaker 1: I don't hate that playing that game. I think laying
1:36:12
Speaker 1: six is too much of a price though, but it
1:36:15
Speaker 1: seems like it is kind of an anti public play
1:36:17
Speaker 1: if you do that. Other games of note here, I
1:36:20
Speaker 1: guess Brown's Eagles is a really weird one. The Eagles
1:36:23
Speaker 1: a two point favorite. The Eagles, I think are almost
1:36:26
Speaker 1: certainly not playing Jalen Hurts, and they're still favored here
1:36:30
Speaker 1: because the Browns are so bad. The Browns played Shooter
1:36:33
Speaker 1: Sanders in their prior game, and I know everybody's freaking out.
1:36:36
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Sanders did well against backup defense, the
1:36:40
Speaker 1: backup defense for the Carolina Panthers. Man, it's all over
1:36:44
Speaker 1: for everybody. Panthers, they're one of the worst defenses in football, man,
1:36:47
Speaker 1: So Sanders doing well against them. You know, I'm a
1:36:50
Speaker 1: Sanders hater. I think there was a lot of netpetism
1:36:52
Speaker 1: in there. I don't think he faced good defenses in college,
1:36:55
Speaker 1: and he still only went thirteen to twelve. I don't
1:36:57
Speaker 1: think he's very good, So we're gonna see what happens.
1:37:00
Speaker 1: He's not gonna see much playing time in this one.
1:37:02
Speaker 1: I don't think Kenny Pickett is questionable. Sanders is also questionable.
1:37:07
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco I don't think he's playing for Cleveland either here,
1:37:10
Speaker 1: so I think It's basically gonna be doing Gabriel's game
1:37:12
Speaker 1: today for Cleveland, and I think he played a little
1:37:15
Speaker 1: bit in the first game and he was bad. So
1:37:17
Speaker 1: we're gonna see what happens. I mean, he's a guy
1:37:19
Speaker 1: that they just drafted I think from he was he
1:37:21
Speaker 1: played at Oklahoma and then Oregon. I believe in college.
1:37:25
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be very good either. You
1:37:27
Speaker 1: know me, I'm not a Sanders fan. I don't think
1:37:29
Speaker 1: he's gonna be good either. Flacco is going to start
1:37:31
Speaker 1: the season for Cleveland as their starter, but I don't
1:37:33
Speaker 1: think he's gonna see the field here. So terrible, terrible
1:37:37
Speaker 1: quarterback rotation for Cleveland. It's just a joke, man. So
1:37:40
Speaker 1: even though Philadelphia is not even playing their starters, Cleveland's
1:37:44
Speaker 1: rotation with their quarterbacks is so bad that there's still
1:37:47
Speaker 1: an underdog here. Philadelphia is gonna go with Tanner McKee
1:37:50
Speaker 1: probably for a lot of this game. He's actually looked
1:37:53
Speaker 1: good when he's played, he's played in some NFL games.
1:37:56
Speaker 1: They might be able to trade him away because he's
1:37:58
Speaker 1: actually played surprisingly well. And then they do have Dorian
1:38:01
Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson who might get into this game. DTR, who
1:38:04
Speaker 1: was on the Browns, so he'll be playing against his
1:38:07
Speaker 1: former team. Kind of a weird storyline there, But DTR,
1:38:11
Speaker 1: he might be the worst quarterback in all of the NFL. Man,
1:38:14
Speaker 1: like the worst quarterback on any roster. He is unbelievably bad.
1:38:18
Speaker 1: I couldn't believe that Cleveland decided to stop using Jameis Winston. Winston,
1:38:24
Speaker 1: I mean he could still throw it, man. I know
1:38:26
Speaker 1: he makes mistakes, but he is fun. He's a leader.
1:38:29
Speaker 1: Guys like him. You want guys to walk, you want
1:38:31
Speaker 1: people to watch your games Winston, and he's also he's
1:38:34
Speaker 1: got so much talent. He still gives you the best
1:38:36
Speaker 1: chance to win. I couldn't believe that went with DTR,
1:38:38
Speaker 1: who actually he actually has nothing, absolutely has nothing. So
1:38:42
Speaker 1: if he's in this game, I think he's gonna Suckkle
1:38:45
Speaker 1: McCord is a rookie. I think he does have decent upside.
1:38:48
Speaker 1: I mean he was on Ohio State remember for a bit,
1:38:51
Speaker 1: so he was like pretty highly considered. You know, he
1:38:55
Speaker 1: was considered to be pretty good in college, and then
1:38:58
Speaker 1: he wound up going to Syracuse because he knew some
1:39:00
Speaker 1: of the guys there and he kind of lit it
1:39:02
Speaker 1: up at Syracuse. So I don't know that he's necessarily
1:39:04
Speaker 1: gonna be bad at this level, but this quarterback rotation
1:39:07
Speaker 1: looks kind of bad as well, So this game, an
1:39:10
Speaker 1: under might actually make sense in this game. I know
1:39:13
Speaker 1: that there have been a ton of high scoring preseason
1:39:15
Speaker 1: games so far, and usually the preseason games are low
1:39:17
Speaker 1: scoring in week one. Now we're into week two, so
1:39:20
Speaker 1: the totals have gone up a little bit, but I
1:39:22
Speaker 1: think Week one went like fourteen to two to the over,
1:39:26
Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are really gonna have start adjusting to
1:39:28
Speaker 1: the fact that a lot of these teams are trying
1:39:30
Speaker 1: more with their offense now trying and you know, have
1:39:33
Speaker 1: teams have more reason to want to get off to
1:39:34
Speaker 1: a good start and figure out who their starter is
1:39:37
Speaker 1: gonna be this game though, these are just horrific quarterback rotations,
1:39:41
Speaker 1: I think for the most part. So even though I
1:39:44
Speaker 1: don't think Tanner McKee is that bad, but I'm not
1:39:46
Speaker 1: seeing and I think an under kind of makes sense
1:39:48
Speaker 1: in this one. Total is at that key number of
1:39:50
Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half, So if you do like
1:39:51
Speaker 1: the under, you got to get the under thirty seven
1:39:53
Speaker 1: and a half. Here eighty five percent tickets only eighty
1:39:55
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, so that is
1:39:57
Speaker 1: kind of an interesting one. One of you guys mentioned
1:40:00
Speaker 1: Niners Raiders yesterday, which I talked about that yesterday. Raiders
1:40:04
Speaker 1: being a four point favorite obviously means the Raiders with
1:40:06
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll they already played, you know, Smith have been
1:40:09
Speaker 1: in their first preseason game, so I assume they're doing
1:40:12
Speaker 1: it again in this game. The forty nine Ers won't
1:40:14
Speaker 1: be playing their starters in this game, I don't imagine,
1:40:17
Speaker 1: So that's why the Raiders are favored there. It's a
1:40:20
Speaker 1: little bit of the old school Bay rivalry there. The
1:40:22
Speaker 1: Raiders are Las Vegas. Now, the Giants are up to
1:40:26
Speaker 1: a three and a half point favorite from a one
1:40:27
Speaker 1: and a half point dog against the Jets. The Jets,
1:40:30
Speaker 1: I believe they did play justin Fields and he's been
1:40:33
Speaker 1: dealing with injuries. But I think Fields may still see
1:40:37
Speaker 1: the field again in this game. I don't really know.
1:40:39
Speaker 1: But the Giants their quarterback rotation actually looked fairly good
1:40:44
Speaker 1: in their first game where they did beat the Bills
1:40:46
Speaker 1: at the Bills Stadium, which is kind of a crazy
1:40:48
Speaker 1: win for the Giants in a way, but we know
1:40:50
Speaker 1: the Bills weren't playing Josh Allen. But the Bills they
1:40:53
Speaker 1: kind of try to win their preseason games that they
1:40:55
Speaker 1: haven't really done that well in preseason recently. We'll talk
1:40:58
Speaker 1: about the Bills tomorrow as they're playing tomorrow, but the Giants.
1:41:02
Speaker 1: A lot of this I think is Jackson Dart. I
1:41:04
Speaker 1: think Dart is gonna see a lot of playing time.
1:41:06
Speaker 1: And he's a guy I actually like. I'm on records
1:41:08
Speaker 1: saying I think he was the best quarterback in this
1:41:10
Speaker 1: draft class. I think his ceiling is really high. I
1:41:12
Speaker 1: think he could he could potentially be really bad, but
1:41:15
Speaker 1: I think his ceiling might be the highest side of anybody.
1:41:17
Speaker 1: I like Dart. It's just that he was on that
1:41:20
Speaker 1: particular offense it will miss where they just throw a
1:41:22
Speaker 1: lot of deep balls. But I think he's really talented.
1:41:25
Speaker 1: He's he does things that a lot of guys can't do.
1:41:28
Speaker 1: He's gonna have to protect himself more. As Gruden's said,
1:41:31
Speaker 1: he was on Gruden's quarterback class, which, by the way,
1:41:34
Speaker 1: check out John Gruden's QB class there or whatever it
1:41:37
Speaker 1: is now on YouTube where he had all the white
1:41:40
Speaker 1: quarterbacks came into his QB camp. It's funny man Gruden
1:41:43
Speaker 1: is still he's still the man. I mean, he still
1:41:45
Speaker 1: basically makes it homo rodack and says a lot of
1:41:48
Speaker 1: really really weird things. But Dart will be playing in
1:41:51
Speaker 1: this game, which is why the Giants are a favorite
1:41:52
Speaker 1: like this. I don't know if it's warranted that this
1:41:55
Speaker 1: much of a favorite. The Jets do still have a
1:41:57
Speaker 1: pretty good defense, but I don't know, man, Giants, I mean,
1:42:02
Speaker 1: their offensive, their quarterback rotation is better. Jamis Winston is
1:42:05
Speaker 1: on the Giants to and you know, I like him,
1:42:07
Speaker 1: so I like the Giants quarterback rotation a bit better. Man.
1:42:10
Speaker 1: And they do have Russell Wilson who's going to be
1:42:12
Speaker 1: their starter for the season, but he's probably not gonna
1:42:15
Speaker 1: play in this game. I think he did play in
1:42:17
Speaker 1: the first game a little bit. And then as far
1:42:20
Speaker 1: as the Jets, I think they have a pretty bad
1:42:21
Speaker 1: quarterback rotation outside of Justin Fields, I forget it else
1:42:25
Speaker 1: they have, but I don't think it's very good. Their
1:42:28
Speaker 1: quarterback rotation is bad. Oh, they do have Tyrod Taylor,
1:42:31
Speaker 1: but I think he's hurt, so I don't know. I
1:42:32
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna play in this game. I actually
1:42:34
Speaker 1: like Tyrod Taylor I think he is pretty good and
1:42:36
Speaker 1: hasn't really been given his chance really In the NFL.
1:42:39
Speaker 1: They get Adrian Martinez, who's a dual threat who was
1:42:42
Speaker 1: playing in the UFL. I think after he went to Nebraska,
1:42:46
Speaker 1: I don't think he's great as far as the NFL
1:42:48
Speaker 1: is concerned. And then Brady Cook is a rookie out
1:42:50
Speaker 1: of Missouri. So I don't know what we might get
1:42:52
Speaker 1: out of those guys, but I do think the Giants
1:42:54
Speaker 1: do have the better quarterback rotation in that game, you
1:42:57
Speaker 1: want to go again, Giants over their team total is
1:42:59
Speaker 1: probably the way to go in that particular game. Rams
1:43:03
Speaker 1: are a huge six and a half point underdog against
1:43:05
Speaker 1: the Chargers in the Battle of La Here. It's an
1:43:08
Speaker 1: addressing game. I don't know if Justin Herbert is actually
1:43:10
Speaker 1: gonna see the field in this one, but I know
1:43:12
Speaker 1: that Matthew Stafford is hurt. He's been dealing with a
1:43:15
Speaker 1: back injury. So my guess is that there's no way
1:43:17
Speaker 1: that Stafford is playing in this game with the Chargers
1:43:19
Speaker 1: being favored like this, So I think that's one key
1:43:22
Speaker 1: component of this. So one thing to keep in mind there.
1:43:26
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I would be ready to say,
1:43:27
Speaker 1: Chargers over their team total in that one. But maybe
1:43:30
Speaker 1: because it seems like Jim Harbaugh just comes out and
1:43:32
Speaker 1: he wants to win these preseason games. But you have
1:43:35
Speaker 1: to check to see if Herbert is playing. I actually
1:43:37
Speaker 1: don't know. And then finally, I actually like the Cowboys
1:43:41
Speaker 1: against the Ravens. The Ravens have flipped to a one
1:43:44
Speaker 1: point favorite here. But the Ravens again, I know, they
1:43:47
Speaker 1: beat the Colts in their first preseason game. But John Harbaugh,
1:43:51
Speaker 1: he basically doesn't care about the preseason anymore. John Harbaugh,
1:43:54
Speaker 1: it's a very weird situation where he won twenty four
1:43:58
Speaker 1: straight preseason games at one point because he actually cared
1:44:01
Speaker 1: about winning preseason games for a while. He wanted to
1:44:03
Speaker 1: go out and win. But then after he was done
1:44:06
Speaker 1: maintaining that streak and he finally lost I think to
1:44:08
Speaker 1: actually Washington a couple of years ago. Harbad finally lost
1:44:11
Speaker 1: his huge preseason win streak. He then't kind of said,
1:44:14
Speaker 1: all right, whatever, I don't care about winning preseason as
1:44:17
Speaker 1: much anymore. And I think he lost like maybe seven
1:44:20
Speaker 1: straight games after that or something like that. So he's
1:44:22
Speaker 1: been a lot worse as a preseason coach after that.
1:44:25
Speaker 1: He just doesn't care as much since his streak doesn't
1:44:28
Speaker 1: exist anymore. And I actually think it was a misleading
1:44:31
Speaker 1: win for the Ravens against the Colts. Like I said,
1:44:33
Speaker 1: the Ravens had an early punt return touchdown that skewed
1:44:36
Speaker 1: the result. Richardson was out of the game with a
1:44:38
Speaker 1: dislocated finger. The Ravens offense was actually horrific in the game,
1:44:43
Speaker 1: so it was ridiculous that they actually won that game.
1:44:46
Speaker 1: I actually like the Cowboys in this one. I think
1:44:48
Speaker 1: you're gonna see a better quarterback rotation. And the Cowboys
1:44:51
Speaker 1: are playing their first game at Jerry World under their
1:44:54
Speaker 1: new coach, Brian Schottenheimer. I'm pretty sure as the new coach, right,
1:44:57
Speaker 1: Did I get that right? I think so. I don't
1:44:59
Speaker 1: know that he's gonna be a very good coach, but
1:45:00
Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys are gonna be more motivated to
1:45:02
Speaker 1: win this game because it's their first preseason game in
1:45:05
Speaker 1: kind of the new era Dallas. Here. We know Dak
1:45:08
Speaker 1: Prescott and Lamar Jackson are not playing in this game.
1:45:11
Speaker 1: The starting quarterbacks will not play here. But the Ravens
1:45:14
Speaker 1: their quarterback rotation, I mean, yeah, I know they have
1:45:17
Speaker 1: Cooper Rush and he was on Dallas last year. So
1:45:19
Speaker 1: that's kind of an interesting scenario because Cooper Rush actually
1:45:22
Speaker 1: has NFL experience and he wasn't that bad playing at Dallas,
1:45:25
Speaker 1: so that's not horrible for Baltimore. But beyond him, they
1:45:28
Speaker 1: only have Devin Leary and he played last week and
1:45:30
Speaker 1: he was terrible. He was like two for thirteen or
1:45:33
Speaker 1: three for twelve or something in the game. He was awful.
1:45:36
Speaker 1: And I don't think we're gonna see, you know, Derrick
1:45:38
Speaker 1: Henry or anything like that for Baltimore. So I think
1:45:40
Speaker 1: Baltimore's offense probably is not gonna do a whole lot
1:45:44
Speaker 1: in this game. Dallas is coming off a loss in
1:45:46
Speaker 1: their first game, maybe a little bit extra motivation there
1:45:49
Speaker 1: as well because they lost to the Rams. Dallas. As
1:45:51
Speaker 1: far as their quarterback rotation, they have Joe Milton the
1:45:54
Speaker 1: third and he actually made some plays. Man, he's got
1:45:57
Speaker 1: some NFL experience because he was on the Patriots. I
1:45:59
Speaker 1: got a win at the end of last season against
1:46:01
Speaker 1: the Bills because it was a game where the Bills
1:46:04
Speaker 1: didn't care about the game. The Bills already had their
1:46:07
Speaker 1: seed wrapped up in the playoffs, so Joe Milton the
1:46:10
Speaker 1: Third came out and beat them. They have him, and
1:46:12
Speaker 1: they have Will Greer, who actually isn't that bad either,
1:46:15
Speaker 1: Like they both have NFL experience, So I actually think
1:46:17
Speaker 1: Dallas is a quarterback rotation is actually preferable to Baltimore's year.
1:46:22
Speaker 1: And again I think the motivational aspect of it, I
1:46:24
Speaker 1: would actually lean to the Cowboys in that one. It's
1:46:27
Speaker 1: definitely an anti public play. The public is only gonna
1:46:30
Speaker 1: want to play the Ravens there. So that's it man,
1:46:33
Speaker 1: long long show today. One of my longest again, my
1:46:36
Speaker 1: plays today are in the WNBA, the New York Liberty
1:46:39
Speaker 1: plus the one and a half MLB split beat Toronto
1:46:42
Speaker 1: on the run line minus one and a half and
1:46:44
Speaker 1: on the money line half and half or if you
1:46:45
Speaker 1: want to go minus one run line or first five
1:46:49
Speaker 1: run line, you could do any of those things as well,
1:46:51
Speaker 1: first five under in Mariners Mets. Those are my plays.
1:46:55
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for me today, guys, Again, thanks
1:46:58
Speaker 1: for hanging out distrack for Shadur. Maybe the Panthers. The
1:47:06
Speaker 1: Panthers are on on their way up a little bit.
1:47:08
Speaker 1: Their their defense is awful, but they have a lot
1:47:11
Speaker 1: of young talent on their offense. Bryce Young actually started
1:47:13
Speaker 1: playing well last year. They have a lot of young
1:47:16
Speaker 1: talented wide receivers and they have with other wide receivers
1:47:20
Speaker 1: they have who do they have Legett and uh what
1:47:23
Speaker 1: Cocher and a couple other guys there, and they have
1:47:25
Speaker 1: Adam Feeling there. So I don't know if they have
1:47:27
Speaker 1: Cocer anymore actually, but Adam Feelin's not young, but he's
1:47:30
Speaker 1: a pretty good veteran wide receiver that they got there.
1:47:32
Speaker 1: And they have Chubahu Bard Man, Chubba Hubbard. They're running back.
1:47:36
Speaker 1: He's really he's actually really good and flies under the raidar.
1:47:39
Speaker 1: He's a good fantasy running back. But people don't pay
1:47:42
Speaker 1: attention to him because the Panthers don't win. But the Panthers, yeah,
1:47:46
Speaker 1: they stink. Their defense is awful, but their offense is
1:47:48
Speaker 1: a fun young offense at least. So I don't think
1:47:51
Speaker 1: they're the worst team in their division this year. I
1:47:52
Speaker 1: think the Saints are. The Saints are terrible. The Aints,
1:47:57
Speaker 1: Thank you, guys, thanks for hanging out again. That's gonna
1:47:59
Speaker 1: do it. Learned it so on Twitter, and learn it
1:48:00
Speaker 1: to it on Instagram. Uh better off dead of course,
1:48:04
Speaker 1: like subscribe on YouTube, you know, comment interact like you
1:48:07
Speaker 1: guys have been doing. Uh go find me on the
1:48:09
Speaker 1: audio platform Spotify, Apple, you can go, you know, rate it,
1:48:14
Speaker 1: rate the show, give me a good review. Let's boost
1:48:16
Speaker 1: this thing up man and covered in you because my
1:48:19
Speaker 1: ukulele project on YouTube that is going on as well,
1:48:22
Speaker 1: so you have that and learn it toad on Patreon,
1:48:25
Speaker 1: Pagreon dot com, slash learned its own and at the
1:48:27
Speaker 1: higher levels you get some bonus content. I got to
1:48:29
Speaker 1: figure out what else to do with the bonus content,
1:48:31
Speaker 1: but you get a Spotify Yuke feed right now and
1:48:34
Speaker 1: Yuke requests at the highest level, which I'm not guaranteeing
1:48:37
Speaker 1: I can do every single one, but I'll try to
1:48:39
Speaker 1: get those done at the prioritized level, which I don't
1:48:42
Speaker 1: have anybody at that level yet, so we will see.
1:48:44
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now, everybody, Thanks for hanging out.
1:48:47
Speaker 1: Let's have a good Saturday and have a good weekend.
1:48:49
Speaker 1: Everybody in peace.