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Transcript

Treasury Just Set Off the Next Crypto Liquidity BOMB?💥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's get into a US treasury boom that is looming today.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I'm going to break it down for you. There is
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: a lot happening in the market. You've probably heard me
• 0:06
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• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Let's just get right into it.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I want to lead off here with this tweet right here,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: and this of course by Secretary Peasant, and he hits
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on a couple of points here, and one of the
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: things is all centered around the Japan carry trade potential
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: and what this looks like. But we strongly support Japan's
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: of the yen. This has been something that has been
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: and brewing, and it's something even I was tweeting about
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: earlier this week is watch his next moves, and his
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: next moves have started to move because you've got the
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Japanese yen now hitting a forty year low, and if
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Japan were forced to liquidate a meaningful portion of his
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: treasury holdings right now to fund the continued intervention, that
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: level of selling would undoubtedly.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Push treasury prices lower and yields higher.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: So this is something that we've kind of looked at
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: in the industry for quite some time. If you go
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: in here and look at the chart, you can see
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: the amount of US treasuries held by investors in Japan.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Primarily you've got Japan leading their way, United Kingdom, China,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: and Belgium top four, but the Japanese are the ones
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: that have the most exposure to US treasury. What does
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: all this mean when you consider the liquidity that could
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: pour into the market. All of this centered around one
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: or two things, and part of this is going to
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: be the connection between treasuries and the yen. Here, of course,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: was an interesting photo that was taken, and it was
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: during a conference where Bessett basically made one note, I'll
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: zoom in onto it for you right there by the
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: end JPY five to ten bill. This is the point
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I'm getting at, guys. We are maybe encroaching an area
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: of a market position, especially where Crypto was. And I'll
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: show you something on the chart that has an eerie
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: similarity that could mean we could be prepping up for
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: a run here. But before we do that, I want
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: to show you a couple of clips here. This is CNBC.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: You're a slide dog when you wrote that down by
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: five to ten billion and the printing.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Looked so big. You've done this before?
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: Ham you where you know people are looking over your shoulder?
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Did you need to be reminded of things to do?
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: Buy ten to billion? Five to ten billion and yen
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: tell me what was really going on there?
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: The second well, I just wanted to make sure that
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: all the reporters looking over my shoulder also knew the
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: symbol JPY for the Japanese.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Yet you have to look at this right here, and
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: that is Japan's wealth is now returning to Japan, and
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: it may be by any means possible. This of course
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: has been done and centered around the Bank of Japan.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: This is why I think you saw best and a
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: good example of that right there. Further into this, this
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: is the interesting point right to in Japan's era of
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: low interest and rebuild the nation's wealth or continue yielding
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: to a current pressure of the United States at the
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: expense of Japan. So this is the challenge. And as
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: you guys remember, we've done a whole slew of videos.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: I'll show you here in a minute.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: But the point is is that Japan is very centered
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: around digital assets right now. It really matters because this
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: could be everything where we get the carry trade now
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: coming on chain. I want to play a clip for
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: you by Andre Jick that kind of goes into that
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: take a look.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: And that is why. On July twentieth, Japan passed something
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: that's being called their version of America's Clarity Act, which
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: means crypto in Japan is now legally recognized as a
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: financial asset, which also means Japanese banks can now hold
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: those assets. But even more importantly, they're using crypto as
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: a means to offload their debt onto the world and
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: their own companies. Then August twenty twenty four, the Bank
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: of Japan increased interest rates by just a little a
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: quarter of one percent. The yen went up and a
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: part of that carry trade started to unwind, and in
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: one day, Japan's stock market went down twelve percent, the
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: worst day since nineteen eighty seven, and the US stock
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: market went down three percent. Millions of people here in
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: the US watched their portfolios lose money that day with
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: no idea what was happening. Nothing happened in the US,
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: but something was happening in Japan, all right.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: So the point if you look at back in that area,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: which was on August fifth, twenty twenty four, this is
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: what was going on in crypto, specifically big coin, and
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: you saw that master Wick where bitcoin dropped under fifty thousand,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: and it happened for is a very short period of time.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: We saw a little bit of a market correction. But
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I want to show you something right here. This is
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: what happened after that. This is the liquidity flow that
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: we're talking about. This is maybe a scenario where Japan
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: could be leading its way. And the difference between August
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four and where we are right now, well,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Japan has completely architected a digital assets framework.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: That is the big difference here.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: So now they actually have a gateway and we have
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: put video after video talking about this. Guys, if you
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: have been following this, I mean it has been over
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know a dozen videos that we've been focusing
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: on for over the last year, focusing on where the
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: potential future of where this is heading, and right now
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I think we are very close to it. Other things
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: right now, you've got to look at what's going on
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in the traditional markets. Of course, is Blackrock, which is
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: getting much more active and in reference to two funds
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: that they've pretty much launched here somewhat in competition with
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Strategy here, but they intend to qualify both of these
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: as eligible reserve assets for US payment stable coin issues.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: This of course is all related to Genius Act.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: You've got Blackrock doing this and dropping this today on
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: the week that we may or may not get clarity
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: as Blackrock knows something. Why are these tied so quickly
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: to exactly what the stable coin bill was really created around.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: So remember this is both on Ethereum and on Solana,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: And if you look at this right here, Solana kind
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: of showcases this Blackrock file with the sec The issue
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: at the token is fund shares on Solana fifteen trillion
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: in AUM assets under management. This is going to be significant,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: and the push that this could put on the market,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: including what Strategy was trying to do obviously with bitcoin,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: may start to center around Solana and Ethereum.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Now, I want to show you one thing right here.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: This is another example.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Something that happened with Strategy not too long and that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: was the threat of the MSCI delisting strategy and the
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: potential impact. Notice that the ones that they're targeting right there, Metaplanet,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: yellow Cake Strategy, all these Bitcoin and then even Sharplink,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: which is e that's.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: On the watch list. But this is the point I'm
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: getting at.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Maybe there is some sort of very unique or eerie
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: coincidence here that this is all coming together at this
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: time when in fact you've got Strategy selling more bitcoin
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: than it has ever sold ever and has not been
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: a buyer of bitcoin in the last several weeks, So
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: be on the lookout. Master is selling bitcoin every month
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: since June. Right there's the chart just to kind of
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: give you an example of it. Three big red weeks.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: So this is the thing to continue to watch at
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: right now. And there has been a lot of analysis
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: on this that is kind of pointing in this direction.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So there may be a market vacuum that could be
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: fit by Ethereum and Salana.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: So let's stay on ethereum real quick.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I want to showcase Ethereum over bitcoin and why this
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: might be a play.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Here's a clip. Take a look.
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: Crypto has been in a ridiculous bear market for a
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: very since since October, so we're coming up on ten
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: months now of bear market. Bitcoin bottomed, a lot of
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: other cryptos haven't, and that's very very true. I mean,
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: the dichotomy is there. I mean, we saw a rally
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: of ethereum versus Bitcoin last week. It kind of bounced
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: off the point zero three level and it's now point
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: oh two nine and a half or below. You know,
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: why does this matter. It's because, well, Tom Lee has
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: been buying while Salor has been selling, and so that's
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: probably the biggest reason for that. So it's you know,
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: liquidity does tend to trump things.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: All right, so he does hit on it right there.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Liquidity is the big player and that is one of
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the keystones of where Tom Lee has built his business around. Remember,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: his situation is completely different than that of Strategy, which
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: is one where there are ar income and being able
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: to actually put that income to work, so completely different
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: situation here.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: All right, so let's jump over to Ripple.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: This course is Monica Long kind of hitting on her goal,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: and Ripple's goals continue to become a full stack digital
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: asset infrastructure. A couple of moves they've made, of course,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: one is investing in Xilo and the other is into Liquido.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Interesting name, as we may get a lot.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: Of Liquido into the market.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: But the point being is that this could be moving
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: in a direction that is now somewhat competitive with Blackrock.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: As you can see.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Here, State Street was one of the Series A investors
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: with Zilo, and this is a big deal because that's
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: almost sixty trillion in assets under management. You look at
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: this right now, this is clear that we are talking
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: about Ripple trying to go head to head with some
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: of the biggest ones out there. Remember State Street being
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: why holding in there, But of course Blackrock also starting
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: to enter.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: This place as well.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I want to play a clip for you though, because
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: this will get into maybe how the market will respond
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: to this, because this is the thing everybody's watching right now.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: You're looking at what's going on in Japan.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: You're seeing all of these major financial institutions in social
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: capital preparing for something?
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: What are they preparing for? Tom Lee sets it up?
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: You shook me. What was the draw down? You said,
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: I could have gotten to a six handle on the
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: S and P based on the numbers you were talking.
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: Yeah, something they'll feel like a bear market, you know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: ten percent kind of draw down.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: That's what you thought that it did get down about
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: seventy two hundred, nowhere near six.
• 10:31
  Speaker 6: Now is that enough?
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: Now?
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: You know?
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: I think August is a month to recover. What how
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: June and July have been sort of flat months, but
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: earnings have your investments have gone up a lot, So
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: the stock market's kind of a coiled spring. So I
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: think the markets could actually rebound strongly this month, like
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: maybe we get to seventy eight hundred.
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: Is that forecast for the ten percent draw down still intact? Yes,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: it is.
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: Yeah, So because as we start to look at twenty
• 11:03
  Speaker 6: twenty seven, there's a lot of the clouds that are
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: heading this year kind of lift. You know, the SpaceX
• 11:08
  Speaker 6: unlock will be behind us, and the market testing of
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: the new FED will be behind us, so I think,
• 11:14
  Speaker 6: and then of course there's already been a leverage online,
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: So I think twenty twenty seven could be one of
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: the best cheers for the stock mark.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: All right, So Tom kind of hits a couple of things.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: He says there that remember, and we've talked about this
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: before on the show, is that he's been anticipating a
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: pretty big drawdown. The drawdown they were kind of narrowing
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: in on wasn't as large as maybe as Lee as
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: thought it was going to be. Doesn't necessarily rule it
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: out just yet, but also positions August as maybe a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: month for a recovery or at least heading into recovery.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: He of course, key things here are always going to
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: be the macro headwinds that are facing this market, and
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: it also faces crypto. But with what's happening in Japan,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: and now you add this in here, which is potentially
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: again this whip saw one oh one coming out of
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration. But Besst now says a deal with
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Iran could be announced as soon as tomorrow. We've heard
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: this a lot of times, guys, I know that, and
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the market in most cases is somewhat numb to this
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: right now. But if it were to occur, I'm just saying,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: if we start to see that kind of adjustment, it
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: could be one of those things where Trump is finally
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: just fatigued and wants to get out of this last
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: point right here Trump, And this kind of makes me
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: think that that could be a possibility, because Trump's trying
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: to lay down deadlines that you know is not going
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to be met. He may do that just in the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: sense of having a slight win or trying to claim
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: a slight win. But the point is is that all
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of this could start coming to a head. If it does.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Timing is eerie here because you've got what's happening in Japan,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: You've got potentially the Fed now maybe looking at a
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: reposition on policy coming out later this year, and you've
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: got somewhat of a slowing economy. So there is a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: lot of headwinds that are all starting to cross together
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: somewhat of a perfect storm here.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Guys. We're going to keep a very close eye on this,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: so stay tuned.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop
• 13:18
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• 13:21
  Speaker 1: member group.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description