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The Muster- Paul Kenyon: Beef and Lamb NZ · The Muster on Hokonui

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  Speaker 1: The Muster Events Diary, brought to you by Beef and
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  Speaker 1: Lamb New Zealand.
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  Speaker 2: Click beeflamnz.com. Paul Kenyon joins us this afternoon.
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  Speaker 3: He is the head of the School of Agriculture and
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  Speaker 3: Environment at Massey University. Over 20 years experience researching sheep
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  Speaker 3: in New Zealand. And he's down in the south for
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  Speaker 3: a Beef and Lamb workshop today. Paul, good afternoon and
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  Speaker 3: welcome to the Muster.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks, mate.
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  Speaker 2: Right, so we've got through the breedings. We've got through lambing.
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  Speaker 2: It's been a marathon, not a sprint down here in.
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  Speaker 3: The south, as you'll appreciate. But sheep genetics, sheep breeding,
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  Speaker 3: it's a big issue. It continues to be as well.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. There's good money in sheep at the moment,
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  Speaker 1: but that won't go on forever. So farmers need to
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  Speaker 1: continue to improve both their genetics and and including their
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  Speaker 1: reproductive performance to maximise the total weight of lamb weaned
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  Speaker 1: per ewe per year.
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  Speaker 2: Likes of management around ewes. How efficient are farmers?
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  Speaker 1: Farmers are always trying to be more efficient in everything
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  Speaker 1: they do because as cost goes up, you need to
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  Speaker 1: still make your margins. So we've made significant improvements in
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  Speaker 1: our efficiency. When you think back... to the size of
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  Speaker 1: our flock in 1981 when we had subsidies, then back
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  Speaker 1: to 1990 where it collapsed around the 60 million and
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  Speaker 1: we were lambing at about 100% and 14 or so
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  Speaker 1: kilos carcass. Now our ewe flock's in the mid-20s, but
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  Speaker 1: our lambing percentages are in the mid to, on average perspective,
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  Speaker 1: mid to high 130s. Our carcasses are in the 19
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  Speaker 1: kilos on average. So even with such a small percentage
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  Speaker 1: flock that we have now compared to those historical levels
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  Speaker 1: in 1990, let alone the peak in about 81, we're
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  Speaker 1: only 14 or so percent down in total weight of
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  Speaker 1: lamb exported each year. So our efficiency gains have actually
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  Speaker 1: been the greatest out of all the ruminant species in
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  Speaker 1: New Zealand. Dairy, we've seen a big increase in production,
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  Speaker 1: but not at anywhere near the same extent in per-year
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  Speaker 1: production that we see with our sheep industry.
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  Speaker 3: What are your thoughts around hoggart lambing? A lot of
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  Speaker 3: people are doing it these days.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm a big supporter of hoggart lambing, but
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  Speaker 1: it needs to be a flexible policy decision. It's not
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  Speaker 1: like you mature years where you need to do it
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  Speaker 1: every year. It needs to be based on the weight
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  Speaker 1: and the body condition score of the hoggart when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to that breeding in May, and having an idea
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  Speaker 1: of the feed you've got on hand and your predicted
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  Speaker 1: feed you'll have through that late autumn, winter, early spring period,
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  Speaker 1: because now you've got a young animal that not only
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  Speaker 1: needs to grow, she needs to lactate and meet the
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  Speaker 1: requirements for pregnancy. So if you can do that, there's
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  Speaker 1: real efficiency gains from breeding hoggets. And so if you
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  Speaker 1: can't do that, the decision is maybe not to breed
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  Speaker 1: hoggets and to concentrate on your mature ewes or just
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  Speaker 1: breed a proportion of your hoggets, those that are high
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  Speaker 1: live weights and in better condition.
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  Speaker 3: A lot of people take the rule of thumb, I suppose,
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  Speaker 3: to have your hoggets in the late 40kg bracket for
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  Speaker 3: going to the ram.
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  Speaker 2: What's the best philosophy around this?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's actually not a weight per se because
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  Speaker 1: every breed differs in its mature size, and even within breed,
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  Speaker 1: you know, there's quite a big variation in different genetic lines.
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  Speaker 1: So you need to be somewhere between 65% and 70%
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  Speaker 1: of the mature weight for your flock, and an easy
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  Speaker 1: proxy for the mature weight for farmers to think about
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  Speaker 1: is when our four-tooths go to the ram, what's the
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  Speaker 1: average weight of them in a good year? And that's
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  Speaker 1: kind of a good proxy for what the mature weight
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  Speaker 1: of your flock your flock should be, and then you
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  Speaker 1: times that by that, somewhere between 0.65 and 0.7, and
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  Speaker 1: that should be your minimum weight.
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  Speaker 3: A lot of people talk about doing a later lambing
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  Speaker 3: next season based on three dud Septembers. One individual in particular,
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  Speaker 3: a lot of people are watching with a lot of interest.
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  Speaker 3: He's put his lambing back to the 4th of October,
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  Speaker 3: and a lot of people are prepared to change their
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  Speaker 3: farming operations to accommodate this because they're just sick of
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  Speaker 3: the low survival rate in September due to the weather pull.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think for a period of 30 or maybe
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  Speaker 1: 40 years, many farmers have been right on the edge
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  Speaker 1: in terms of lambing early with the idea that by
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  Speaker 1: lambing early, the lambs would be older and hopefully therefore
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  Speaker 1: heavier at, say, a pre-lambing weaning when we know that
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  Speaker 1: the price of prime lambs is highest before it starts
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  Speaker 1: to crash post-Christmas because of the supply. The last few years,
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  Speaker 1: we don't see that significant drop post-Christmas. because of the
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  Speaker 1: fact that New Zealand and Australia account for 90-ish percent
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  Speaker 1: of the total world lamb trade, and both of us
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  Speaker 1: have seen a decrease in our flock size, as well
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  Speaker 1: as human population goes up and the average person's meat
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  Speaker 1: consumption has gone up in the world. So there's greater
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  Speaker 1: demand with less supply, so we don't see that drop.
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  Speaker 1: So therefore there's no longer that push to really, I
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  Speaker 1: would argue, in many farms to lamb that early, and
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  Speaker 1: the risk of lambing too early is a, the weather,
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  Speaker 1: but B, a mismatch between feed supply and late pregnancy,
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  Speaker 1: early lactation and demand. So I think now, as we
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  Speaker 1: see change in weather and we don't get that such
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  Speaker 1: severe drop in price post-Christmas, lambing later, I think it's
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  Speaker 1: going to become more of a viable option, especially if
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  Speaker 1: you're summer safe.
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  Speaker 3: What does this do regarding the way you treat the animals,
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  Speaker 3: the two-do scent?
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  Speaker 1: I don't think it changes anything. at all what you do.
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  Speaker 1: We still want to meet those targets in terms of
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  Speaker 1: making sure the body condition scores three minimum and in
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  Speaker 1: terms of mature weight, they're at least 90% of your
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  Speaker 1: mature weight when they go to the ram. It just
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  Speaker 1: means if you get a lamb a bit later, they
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  Speaker 1: would go to the ram just that slightly later. It
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  Speaker 1: just comes down to trying to match feed demand with
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  Speaker 1: supply and think about how you can do that in
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  Speaker 1: that late pregnancy period which coincides with late winter, early spring.
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  Speaker 3: Now, Paul, you've been involved at Massey, you've been involved
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  Speaker 3: in the industry for around 20 years now. How would
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  Speaker 3: you describe the state of play regarding the sector?
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  Speaker 1: Well, I would say that the sector's in a great place.
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  Speaker 1: We're lucky that, you know, in a world sense, red
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  Speaker 1: meat is certainly in demand, and all the indicators are
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  Speaker 1: that it's going to increase in demand for two reasons, A,
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  Speaker 1: People are eating more red meat and there's more people
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  Speaker 1: in the world. So we're a quality protein supplier of
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  Speaker 1: a product that's seen as being nutritious, safe to eat,
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  Speaker 1: and being grown in a sustainable, responsible manner in a
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  Speaker 1: world level. So it's a really good space. We're seeing
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  Speaker 1: good prices at the moment. But, you know, farmers can
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  Speaker 1: never rest on their laurels. If I think about the
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  Speaker 1: mid to late 90s when I started, there was a
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  Speaker 1: big push to increase lambing percentage and scanning percentages. I
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  Speaker 1: think some of us may have gone too far with that.
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  Speaker 1: We know when we get to 180% to 185% in
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  Speaker 1: our scanning, we can get 10% triplets. And if we
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  Speaker 1: go above that, we get proportionally more and more triplets.
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  Speaker 1: And that's an issue. Having more triplets, it's very hard
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  Speaker 1: to manage that successfully under pastoral conditions. And so we
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  Speaker 1: actually see very high lambing percentages above that 200%. It's actually...
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  Speaker 1: there's no real financial advantage of doing that. In fact,
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  Speaker 1: you might just give yourself more of a headache. So
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  Speaker 1: I think we will see more of our farmers focusing
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  Speaker 1: on getting our weaning weights up without blowing our mature
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  Speaker 1: weights out. If we get our weaning weights up, that
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  Speaker 1: gives us more flexibility in terms of when we can
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  Speaker 1: get rid of those lambs, the heavier the lamb is
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  Speaker 1: at weaning, the less feed will need post-weaning through slaughter,
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  Speaker 1: and early you slaughter it, of course, for less days
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  Speaker 1: it's alive, so less feed costs. so that feed can
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  Speaker 1: then be given to other classes of stock and less
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  Speaker 1: animal health and labour costs and less time for things
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  Speaker 1: like parasites, etc. So I think we will see more
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  Speaker 1: of a focus on weaning weight for a while now
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  Speaker 1: and many farmers will be holding or some, in fact,
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  Speaker 1: will be pulling back on their reproductive performance.
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  Speaker 2: Good on you, Paul. Thanks for your time and enjoy
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  Speaker 2: your time down on the Deep South.
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  Speaker 1: It's great to be here and thanks for the opportunity
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  Speaker 1: to speak.
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  Speaker 2: Paul Kenyon in the beef and lamb slot.
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  Speaker 3: Click beeflambnz.com slash events to get the e-diary sent to
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  Speaker 3: your inbox every Friday morning.
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  Speaker 2: Nathan Burden's up next.