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Rocket Classic - PGA DFS | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | First Look · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall. System's going clear, we lift them. Welcome back. We
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: are live another episode of the First Look PGA Tour.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We have the Rocket Classic this week aka episode two
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: of the Summer of Birdies, maybe episode like two and
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: a half. But as I mentioned in prior episodes, the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: birdies are flowing once July comes around the calendar. We
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: just see these same styles of golf courses, the same
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: usual designs, the same usual winning scores, and hey, if
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: you don't like it, then there's more tournaments for you
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to handicap. But there is ways to make money one
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: way or another. So first thing I'm gonna do go
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: through the normal Twitter thread. But before I get into it,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I want to touch on the new design because I
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: posted the Twitter thread and people were like, it's a
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: new course, you bozo, And yeah, I know, it's a
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: new course. But we talked about this, I think it
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: was it was it Colonial or one of the Texas
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: events every single year, these guys, the architect guys, and hey,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: more power do you guys? You guys? Are you guys
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: know about your stuff? But in terms of handicapping, winning score,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: style of golf that comes to the top, it almost
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: never makes a difference even if they're big overhauls. Unless
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: it's like a massive total course change, the ethos of
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a golf course does not change too much even with
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: designers coming in and making it a big overhaul. So
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I didn't even mention it because I feel like I
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: feel like mentioning it is just like looking for trying
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: to get different with things when you don't have to. So,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, we saw things like I forget exactly what
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: design it was. I think it was Texas. Everyone was like,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: this is going to play so different this year, and
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: it was the same exact damn thing. So I don't
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: get too deep into those things. And I'm not going
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: to get too deep into it here, but let's took it.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look at prior results at Detroit Golf
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Club and see what types of golfers have gotten to
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: the top there over the year. So here is the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Twitter thread one of the few golf courses I don't
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: want to get overly married to a perfect statistical profile.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Multiple styles have played well here, and it's on paper.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: It's like, ugh, I messed up the screen. On paper,
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  Speaker 1: it's like a bomber's track, And yeah, al Drick Pock
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Eater was one of those bombers that made it, that
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: got the job done here last year. But before that,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of skipping before that, Ricky Fowler, Cam Davis
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: did not do anything crazy off the tee. I guess
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: outside of that, I just skipped down. This is also
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: a golf course where favorites have done really really well here,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: even Bryce not mentioned here, Tone Pendrith, Ricky, Colin akshay
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Minmu and then all your kind of buck That trend
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit last year, but favorites have done really
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: well here over the year. Obviously, distance is important here,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: but it does not necessarily matter one d percent. Like
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I said, Ricky played well here, not doing anything crazy
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: in the distance. Cam Davis didn't do anything in terms
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: of just gaining a ton of strokes off the TA.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: We've seen players like Morikawa Kirk Rye contend. Those guys
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: are not absolute bombers. So this is the average strokes
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: gained per round by players over their last ten starts,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: coming by winners over by winners and runner ups. Sorry
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: let me let me repeat myself, so you guys know
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying here. This is the average strokes gain
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: per round by winners and runner ups the last three years,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: their previous ten starts before they ended up popping at
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: the Rocket Morgan's Classic approach one point two one off
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  Speaker 1: the t one point one to three, putting zero point
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  Speaker 1: five to six around the green zero point five to four.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: You could see that approach immediately separates itself. So that
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: is some elite approach play dating back to your last
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: ten rounds. And this is how many players spiked at
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: least once. A spike is a plus four or better week.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: You could see every single player out of those winners
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: and runner up spiked at least once on approach accuracy
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  Speaker 1: ten of eleven, distance, nine of eleven off the tee
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: in general, eight of eleven, putting seven around the green five.
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  Speaker 1: The only category that was universal was approached. So what
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: is that saying that approach is kind of the key
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: benefactor leading into this event rather than the driver, And
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of surprising when you're taking a
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: look at like a Birdie fester or the style of
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: golf you're thinking for the Rock and Morger's Classic and
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: the short game coming into the week is not anything crazy.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: It's really not anything crazy. The ball striking surprisely does
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: they have you lifting out a golf course like this?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: So course history not leaning on it too much. Look
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: at these recent results, nothing crazy at all, so not
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: really looking at course history at all. Anyone could kind
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: of win. Here are some better course comps in my opinion,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: so definitely take a look at these five core versus Scottsdale,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the Dice Stadium Course, Twin Cities, Memorial Park, and Deer Run.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of what I'm looking for. Looking at
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the weather this week, we might get some some win guys,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: some dice yer weather. Look at this Thursday weather. It
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: is only Monday, but look at this Thursday weather. We
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: have gusts up for of twenty five miles an hour,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: double digits all day. Friday should be a little bit
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: more calm, some pm rain but it shouldn't be too much.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Saturday gets dicey, some rain all day, hopefully they get
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: all the golf in here. And Sunday there's a potential
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: chance of lightning. But really Thursday could be one of
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: the more difficult days. Maybe a bounced back opportunity for
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Friday to get make some more birdies. But that's what
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for in terms of weather. In terms of
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: winning scores, here we saw Aldrich win at twenty two,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: CD Win at eighteen, Rick win at twenty four, Tone
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: went at twenty six, CD eighteen, Bryson twenty three, Nate
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: last twenty five. Now something that will change would be
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the winning score because this has changed to a par seventy,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: So the winning score is gonna be a little bit
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: different just because the par changed. So I'm gonna go
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: with like a minus nineteen winning score this week, minus
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: eighteen winning score somewhere. I actually I'm gonna go with
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: seventeen to nineteen range. That's what I'm gonna go for
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: a winning score this week. So next thing I want
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: to touch on is the contest selection for the week.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I really do love for max Entry contest. I just
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: think they they set up the best four hundred and
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: forty four entrants in this contest two fifty per lineup.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: You can enter it four times and we don't necessarily
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: get the exact price of two thousand to tenth place,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: but it's close enough. I just love the fact that
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: you could turn two fifty into twenty bands. You don't
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: even have to max enter it. Only four hundred and
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: forty threety people in this lineup, I can promise you you're
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: playing massive contests. You've beat four hundred and forty three
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: other people before. I love this one. And taking a
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: look at the DFS board, we have Cam Young leading
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: the way at ten to five, Xander ten two, and
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: that's it. Those are the only guys above ten thousand dollars.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Kind of soft pricing in my opinion this week with
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: the not the weak and field in the world. I
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: do like this pricing a lot. I think you can
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: get very, very very unique here, so that's what that's
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: the pricing. The one golfer I want to look at
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: is the top golfer that is Cameron Young. Cameron Young
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: coming off of a runners runner up finish at the Open,
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: and we talked about him leading into the Open. I
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: loved how he set up for the Open Championship, and
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: I like what he's got going on here. He's played
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: here three times T forty six, T six, T two,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: hit the ball well every single start here, and he's
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: coming in off of a nice week, gaining strokes in
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: every category over eight almost ten sdrukes ball striking, another
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: two around the green, about even on the greens. He's
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: not the best bent grass putter, not the best. I mean,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: this isn't These aren't bent grass greens. These are what
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: like that weird poem like that. It's that weird poem
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: mix that the same, the same thing that TPC River
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Highlands has. So I don't mind that even though he
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: didn't put the best at the Travelers Championship, he doesn't
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: put the best in the Northeast. Typically we're not in
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the Northeast. You guys know my thing with Cam Young.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: In the Northeast, it reminds him of home and he
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't play well. But we're we're in the Midwest here.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I think Cam Young will play alright, He's not gonna
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: be reminded of home. So that's Cam Young at ten
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  Speaker 1: five hundred. Bring the screen back up. The next golfer
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I want to touch on in the DFS board is
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: down the board a little bit. He's seventeen hundred dollars.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Goes by the name of Marco Penge. Marco Penge is
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: one of those bombers. Is one of those golfers who
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I think is gonna see this golf course and be like, hmm,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I've seen bombers play well here before, and I can
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: potentially be the next one. Coming off of a nice
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: thaighteen at the Open Championship, his best finish on the
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: PGA Tour since the valast Bar back in March, he
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: gained strokes in every single category for the first time
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: since maybe a long time. I don't know if he
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: hasn't gained strokes in every single category in the PGA
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Tour this year. So nice for Marco pens kind of
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: getting the game in order. We know what he does
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: in terms of driving distance, and like I said, I'm
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: not looking for ampletely, but we've seen driving distance pop
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: here and Marco Pench having that distance coming off of
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: gaining strokes on approach and two of his last three
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: starts is a really really good sign. So Marco Pinch
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: is definitely one golfer I am looking for in at
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: seven k range. Let's take a look at the betting board,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: pretty similar to what we're seeing on the DFST board.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: We got Cameron Young, Xander Sharpley, Chris got her up, Seawoo,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Kim Wyndham, Clark all under twenty to one, and then
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: we open it up a little bit. The first guy
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I want to touch on on the betting board is
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: down the board a little bit forty one to one.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Michael thorpe Bjornson. Michael thorp Bjornson off of a T
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: seven and a T forty across the pond and he
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: finally got it back in order with the ball striking.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Gained over about four and a half strokes ball striking
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: at the Open Championship. Another like another about four strokes
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: ball striking at the Scottish Open. Pop popped the putt
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit once around the green was nice. Michael
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: thorpe Bornson just looks like the game in general is
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: coming around. He's doing things well and that kind of
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: makes sense here. His course history here is a T
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: four and twenty twenty five and then two miss cuts.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Proven to do it here like he played well here
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: last year, gaining strokes across the board and at forty
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: to one, I do not mind that number. Thorpe Jornsen
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: has a caddy in his bag who's caddied well here before,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: and I think that matters for sure. Taking a look
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: at the betting board again, if we go up to
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: thirty to one, we see Ben Griffin. Ben Griffin coming
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: off of a nice I'm gonna call it a nice
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: T fifty nine because he hit the ball well and
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: just lost strokes putting. We know Ben is usually a
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: pretty solid putter. He's never lost strokes putting at this
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: golf course before. Really good sign for Ben Griffin. And
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I love what he's doing with the approach. He has
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: not lost strokes on approach since Ironni Make. He's really
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: figuring it out with the ball shriking. Kind of been
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: a lackluster start to twenty twenty six after what he
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: did in twenty twenty five, but BG is finding his
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: game again. Thirty to one. I do not mind it
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: at all, like his course history as well around this
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: golf course. So Ben Griffin, Michael Thorbjorenson. Two guys, I'm
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: looking at on the betting board. Next thing I want
• 11:05
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• 11:43
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• 12:20
  Speaker 1: it up. Next thing I want to touch on is
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: a potential chalky golfer, a potential pivot the one golfer
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: that I am on and the model, so a potential
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: chalky golfer this week, Actually I feel like I'm pretty
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: good at knowing who's going to be chalking and who's
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: not going to be chalky. But this week with the pricing,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure early in the week, so you
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: could you could comment below, I don't think this golfer
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: is gonna be choky. You're wrong, Matt, But I do
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: believe at on Monday evening and nine pm when I'm
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: recording this, this golfer Wyndham Clark is going to be chalky.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Yet again. I simply think his price is too cheap
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: for the amount of good golf he's played recently. Not
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: a great week at the Open Championship, fine week in Scotland,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: T five at River Highlands, a win at the US
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Open T eleven, a third place and a win Windham popped.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Starting in Texas hard won twice in four starts, and
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: now he's only ninety three hundred dollars at a golf
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: course that he's got a top ten here, he's got
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: a T seventeen here. I do not see Wyndham Clark
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: coming in under ouwned. I think he's gonna be chalky
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: for sure. So he's a potential chalky golfer. Now, with
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: that being said, do I think he's bad Chalk, Not necessarily,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: but if we're just saying Chalky, I think Wyndham Clark
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: is gonna be that guy. Now we'll go with a
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: potential pivot. Who do I think is gonna be a pivot?
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: It depends. This is not a pivot off of Wyndham Clark.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: This is actually a pivot at the top, the very
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: top of the odds board. I think people are gonna
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: go to Cam Young. I think people are gonna go
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: to Chris Gottrup. I think people are gonna skip over
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Xander Schroftley at ten two hundred and I know he's
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: not having the greatest results right now, but Xander coming
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: off of his first all green ball striking week in
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: some time a TA team at the Open Championship. He's
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: been up and down with the ball striking. The approach
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: has been a little week, but he gained three point
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: seven strokes and approach at Robrokedale. That was his best
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: approach week since Augusta, So he's finding something with the irons.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: He's never played this event before, so I don't think
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be used to an old course. If we're
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: getting some renovations which I don't think is a thing
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: at all. I just think Xander Shrofley is gonna be
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: overlooked at ten thousand, two hundred and you never want
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: to You never want to overlook Xander Strofley. He could
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: pop in any week. So Xander Shockley is my potential
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: pivot of the week. Before we get to the one golfer, iman,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: I want to touch on the model here. We have
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: the model we did. I will show you real quick
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: what I did for the model. The four models I built,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: we went with We went with bear with me for
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: a second. We're gonna go to model. We went with
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: approach plus total strokes gain, total distance plus approach, total
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: driving plus approach off the T plus approach plus thirty
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: or better. Made sixteen different models and aggregated it into
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: this Cam Young number one, Johnny Keith for number two,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Seawoo Kim number two, tied for fourth, Ben Coles, JJ Spawn,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: William Moo, and a tie for seventh Michael Brennan and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Jackson Coven. That is the model for the week. Hopefully
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: he could play on a winner here that leads us
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: to the one golfer that I am on. This golfer
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: nine thousand, one hundred dollars Patrick Cantlay. Patrick Cantlay has
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: a runner up here in his career. That was what
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: two years ago, twenty twenty two, so a few years
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: back T thirty two last year. Now, Patrick Cantlay is
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: not the trainee golfer in the world, but he's literruly
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: hitting the ball pretty well. He's been consistent, the ball
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: striking consistent since the players, and that has been since March.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I like the ball striking he brings in. I like
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the calm demeanor he brings in, and I like Patrick
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Cantley to finish t easily without contention, just go about
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: his day, backdoor it and at ninety one hundred dollars,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: you will take a T six all day. So Patrick
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Cantley is the one golfer I am on. I'm gonna
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: be playing him in DFS for sure. That wraps it
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: up before we get out of here. As always, the
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: song of today, I think you may have heard this
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: one before, may not. We're gonna go with Smokahontas by
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Attack Attack Check it out, laugh if you want to,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: but let me know how you like it, let me
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: know that does it. I will be back on Thursday.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: With the Showdown content Thursday, Friday, Saturday, so any question
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: in know where to find me. Hope you guys enjoyed it,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: No catch you soon, peace Out,