Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / FOMC Predictions🚨Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: Check one.
- 0:06Speaker 2: Two. The FOMC meeting is looming and a lot of
- 0:28Speaker 2: people are looking at where it's going to go and
- 0:31Speaker 2: whether or not all of this is priced into the market.
- 0:33Speaker 2: We'll break it down for you. My name is Paul
- 0:35Speaker 2: bar Welcome back in the tech path. Let's get started.
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- 1:10Speaker 2: help us out. So let's go over to a couple
- 1:11Speaker 2: of points I want to hit on first, and of course,
- 1:14Speaker 2: the prediction of where are we going to be on
- 1:16Speaker 2: these rate cuts. If you look at polymarket and the
- 1:18Speaker 2: decision in May, we are looking at pretty much a
- 1:23Speaker 2: one hundred percent what we'll just call it that setting
- 1:25Speaker 2: it ninety eight percent right now on no change. The
- 1:29Speaker 2: possibility if you take it and look out in June
- 1:32Speaker 2: starts to get interesting, and then also all the way
- 1:36Speaker 2: out into July still kind of a mixed bag on
- 1:39Speaker 2: where we're going to see the potential of a rate
- 1:42Speaker 2: cut coming into the monetary system. If you look at
- 1:45Speaker 2: inflation impressively holding down at one point four to six
- 1:51Speaker 2: here on true inflation, and of course this is kind
- 1:53Speaker 2: of going sideways from it's low right there in April
- 1:57Speaker 2: early April, which was around one point two two, slightly
- 2:00Speaker 2: up and then backsideways, So maybe inflation has been tamed
- 2:05Speaker 2: or is this the calm before the storm. Everybody's still
- 2:08Speaker 2: looking at this kind of going into a very big
- 2:12Speaker 2: question of whether or not we're going to see a
- 2:14Speaker 2: recession looming in now. If you look here, we'll go
- 2:18Speaker 2: back here at its high right there, sixty six percent chance,
- 2:23Speaker 2: and this is back in again April sixth that has
- 2:26Speaker 2: started to fall and now holding around a fifty five
- 2:30Speaker 2: percent chance, so fifty to fifty that we've got a recession,
- 2:34Speaker 2: recession potentially brewing. Other things that play into all of
- 2:38Speaker 2: this is how markets respond, and one of the things
- 2:40Speaker 2: you've got to consider is whether or not the stock
- 2:45Speaker 2: market is currently priced in. And I'll show you something
- 2:47Speaker 2: here in a second that'll show you, ironically that the
- 2:51Speaker 2: stock market right now is a little bit more bullish
- 2:53Speaker 2: than even crypto. Take a look at this.
- 2:55Speaker 1: Just three percent say stocks are fully priced right now
- 2:58Speaker 1: for recession, say somewhat priced, and forty five percent say
- 3:02Speaker 1: not priced at all. Overall, stocks are seen as overpriced
- 3:07Speaker 1: by fifty nine percent of respondents. That's up from fifty
- 3:10Speaker 1: three in the March survey. Ten percent say they're over
- 3:14Speaker 1: priced compared to three percent, and correctly priced well just
- 3:18Speaker 1: seventeen percent. Hugh Johnson Economics writes in with the survey quote,
- 3:21Speaker 1: although equity prices are undervalued, in his opinion, the level
- 3:24Speaker 1: of the stock market optimism remains too high. Most likely
- 3:28Speaker 1: there are further declines ahead, the recession probability rising to
- 3:32Speaker 1: fifty three percent. That's up from twenty two percent back
- 3:35Speaker 1: in January. It's the biggest two survey move we've seen
- 3:39Speaker 1: since the Fed hike rates in twenty twenty two. So
- 3:42Speaker 1: one way to think about it is the terrifts are
- 3:44Speaker 1: viewed now as a similar kind of economics shop shock
- 3:47Speaker 1: as those sharp rate hikes faced with higher inflation and
- 3:51Speaker 1: slower growth. The expectation is the FED will cut rates
- 3:55Speaker 1: later this year, but respondents are divided on whether that
- 3:59Speaker 1: first cut cup in June or July.
- 4:35Speaker 2: All Right, a couple of things that he's breaking down there.
- 4:37Speaker 2: Of course, yes, cycle wise, tariffs I would say would
- 4:40Speaker 2: be very similar in terms of the fast acceleration of
- 4:43Speaker 2: rate increases that we saw from the Fed. But I
- 4:46Speaker 2: think a lot of this still goes into where the
- 4:48Speaker 2: current stock market is. And if you look at fear
- 4:51Speaker 2: and greed right now, this is insane for us to
- 4:55Speaker 2: see greed in the market this quickly, and I think
- 4:59Speaker 2: this is a concern, and also because it's very possible
- 5:01Speaker 2: we could see some liquidity coming out of traditional stocks
- 5:05Speaker 2: and maybe moving into the crypto market. Now, if you
- 5:07Speaker 2: take a look at where crypto fear and greed is
- 5:10Speaker 2: right now, I'll zoom in on that for you guys
- 5:13Speaker 2: right there, holding up somewhat neutral right now, even with
- 5:17Speaker 2: the market as it is right now, with so many
- 5:20Speaker 2: different opportunities, which are trade deals that could be locked
- 5:23Speaker 2: in along with a handful of other things from a
- 5:27Speaker 2: more macro side of things, plus what we'll most likely
- 5:30Speaker 2: see in terms of a side step of a recession.
- 5:35Speaker 2: All of that's very positive I think for crypto as
- 5:37Speaker 2: a whole.
- 5:41Speaker 3: So if you look at yep, yeah, stock market must
- 6:01Speaker 3: be seen something.
- 6:02Speaker 2: Yep, all right. Ready one thing to look back on
- 6:08Speaker 2: quickly on fear and greed. If you just compare just
- 6:10Speaker 2: a week ago was at thirty five, so that would
- 6:12Speaker 2: have been put it right smack dab in the middle
- 6:15Speaker 2: of the fear section. It's already accelerated past neutral and
- 6:18Speaker 2: into the greed layer. So I think the key here
- 6:21Speaker 2: is again a lot of money that are maybe they're
- 6:24Speaker 2: trying to make some initial trades knowing that there is
- 6:27Speaker 2: going to be a potential pullback if they don't do
- 6:29Speaker 2: a deal with China from a tariff side of things.
- 6:32Speaker 2: Other things, how the FED might meeting might could move
- 6:35Speaker 2: market some of the points that they're trying to make
- 6:37Speaker 2: in here. What could be different is the commentary on
- 6:39Speaker 2: the economy, and I agree with that. Let me kind
- 6:41Speaker 2: of zoom in on that for you guys. I agree
- 6:44Speaker 2: with that because I think the commentary is going to
- 6:47Speaker 2: be significant coming from Powell. There may be some signals
- 6:51Speaker 2: from him that they have tamed inflation. If that is
- 6:56Speaker 2: the case, maybe he comes in a little dubbish, and
- 6:58Speaker 2: if he does, maybe that helps market continue its run,
- 7:02Speaker 2: at least from a traditional side, and possibly put a
- 7:04Speaker 2: little juice into the crypto markets. For sure. The May
- 7:07Speaker 2: FED is kind of a line in the sand between
- 7:09Speaker 2: the Central Bank and the administration. Obviously we know Trump's
- 7:12Speaker 2: position on Chair Pal. He's tossing words back and forth.
- 7:16Speaker 2: But I think the key here is that clarity won't
- 7:19Speaker 2: really happen happen until we see the ninety day pause
- 7:22Speaker 2: being up. Because remember that's what Pal said, is that
- 7:24Speaker 2: we feel like a ninety day pause is in order.
- 7:26Speaker 2: Other things that you got to look at right now,
- 7:28Speaker 2: and this coming in from some of the market out
- 7:30Speaker 2: there signal FED meeting tomorrow, many people are now saying
- 7:34Speaker 2: that the FED is confronting a lose lose scenario, and
- 7:38Speaker 2: I would agree with that, just because of the tariff rollout.
- 7:41Speaker 2: Central bank of course around the world have already started
- 7:45Speaker 2: to cut rates, including the ECB. So why is the
- 7:48Speaker 2: Fed here in the United States not following suit with
- 7:52Speaker 2: the over market overall market, I think that's the factor
- 7:55Speaker 2: everybody's looking at right now. Other things with FOMC tomorrow,
- 7:59Speaker 2: total market looks like this, I'll kind of expand that
- 8:02Speaker 2: you can kind of see we are not necessarily outside
- 8:06Speaker 2: of a potential beginning of a bull run. Simply saying
- 8:11Speaker 2: is have we finally come back off of the unstable
- 8:15Speaker 2: market and into a position here where we could see
- 8:18Speaker 2: and up only because this would be a very critical
- 8:20Speaker 2: point going forward, especially when you look at the total
- 8:24Speaker 2: market cap for crypto as a whole. Other things to
- 8:27Speaker 2: take a look at. You've got to kind of consider
- 8:29Speaker 2: what's happening with tether. They just printed another billion on tron.
- 8:33Speaker 2: This is not random. There is a lot of money.
- 8:35Speaker 2: From everybody I've talked with, they're saying the same exact thing,
- 8:39Speaker 2: a lot of liquidity prepping up for some potential acquisitions.
- 8:43Speaker 2: If bitcoin slides back under ninety k, that may be
- 8:47Speaker 2: the window where a lot of people come in, So
- 8:49Speaker 2: be on the lookout for that. Clock is taking now
- 8:51Speaker 2: down to zero. Trump is in a position that he
- 8:55Speaker 2: needs a trade deal, and I think it's a trade
- 8:56Speaker 2: deal that is going to come down to the last wire,
- 9:00Speaker 2: and that of course is going to be with China.
- 9:02Speaker 2: A couple of points within it. Trump said, we could
- 9:05Speaker 2: very well, there could very well be trade deals announced
- 9:08Speaker 2: this week. Be on the lookout, guys, because if that happens,
- 9:12Speaker 2: expect a market to respond regardless of what happens in
- 9:15Speaker 2: the FOMC. The administration said India, Japan, and South Korea
- 9:18Speaker 2: are most likely to reach a trade agreement first if
- 9:21Speaker 2: we do a deal with India, because India just did
- 9:23Speaker 2: a deal with the UK. They are really out there
- 9:26Speaker 2: working right now to get these locked in, and Trump
- 9:29Speaker 2: administration risks inflecting serious harm on the economic position I
- 9:35Speaker 2: think of the US global scenario, especially if the United
- 9:39Speaker 2: States goes into a recession. So remember this is self
- 9:43Speaker 2: inflicted if in fact it does go through to the end. Now,
- 9:47Speaker 2: right now, it's still somewhat untested because we haven't seen
- 9:51Speaker 2: these true tariffs really take place in a lot of
- 9:56Speaker 2: we know they're coming, but we haven't seen them truly
- 9:58Speaker 2: take place just yet. I want to go to this
- 10:01Speaker 2: next clip because this will get into what's happening at
- 10:03Speaker 2: the ports, which is where everybody ships everything in. Take
- 10:06Speaker 2: a look at this. How much volume is just dropped
- 10:09Speaker 2: off in the last few weeks.
- 10:11Speaker 4: Yeah, about a third of the import volume, which means,
- 10:14Speaker 4: give or take about fifty twenty foot equivalent units gone
- 10:18Speaker 4: off the arrivals coming in next week. So CEOs are
- 10:21Speaker 4: telling me hit the pause button right then, hiring off
- 10:25Speaker 4: the table for right now, capital investment pause, and the
- 10:29Speaker 4: retailers are telling me that realistically, with even the ten percent,
- 10:32Speaker 4: I'm going to have to pass it on to the consumers.
- 10:34Speaker 5: How much are you going to see a real decline
- 10:37Speaker 5: in dock workers if this goes on?
- 10:39Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the question. So the trucker hauling four
- 10:41Speaker 4: or five containers today, next week she probably hauls two
- 10:44Speaker 4: or three. The dock workers are no longer going to
- 10:47Speaker 4: see overtime and double shifts. They're going to probably work
- 10:50Speaker 4: less than a traditional work week. Starting right off the bat,
- 10:54Speaker 4: every four containers meet a job. So when we start
- 10:56Speaker 4: dialing this back, it's less job opportunities, all right.
- 11:00Speaker 2: So a couple of things that you have to consider
- 11:04Speaker 2: as these tariffs take place is this kind of this
- 11:07Speaker 2: surrounding effect that it is going to hit in the
- 11:10Speaker 2: economy in a lot of different areas. Obviously, trucking will
- 11:13Speaker 2: be one, dockworking and a lot of that those kinds
- 11:16Speaker 2: of jobs, but there's also some other areas that we'll
- 11:18Speaker 2: play into this. Here's how firms are planning to take
- 11:22Speaker 2: action on these when they come through. And basically what
- 11:26Speaker 2: they're saying is they're going to pass the cost on
- 11:28Speaker 2: to customers. Now some would say they would absorb the cost. Depends,
- 11:31Speaker 2: I guess on what market you're in finding new domestic suppliers.
- 11:35Speaker 2: So there are quite a few still looking for US
- 11:37Speaker 2: suppliers and then moving up purchases ahead of tariff's implementation.
- 11:41Speaker 2: That too, could also be a factor where we get
- 11:44Speaker 2: a little bit stockpile that might carry us through a
- 11:47Speaker 2: zone of tariffs actually being enforced. Other points you got
- 11:52Speaker 2: to look at right now is there's gonna be some
- 11:54Speaker 2: big companies that also will start to lose out on this.
- 11:56Speaker 2: And even in the digital side, here's Google facing low
- 12:00Speaker 2: Timu and shin As from their AD revenue due to
- 12:04Speaker 2: China's tariffs and a couple of points they hit on.
- 12:07Speaker 2: Really is just that they're scaling back. I don't know
- 12:09Speaker 2: if this is cutting twenty one percent of their overall
- 12:11Speaker 2: spend or that's twenty one percent of Google's AD revenue,
- 12:14Speaker 2: because it's kind of vague. But for now, the AD
- 12:17Speaker 2: business remains very strong, about sixty eight billion sixty six
- 12:20Speaker 2: billion in the first half quarter and that's like an
- 12:23Speaker 2: eight and a half percent increase from the same period
- 12:25Speaker 2: last year, so it is up. Now what does that
- 12:28Speaker 2: look like if we do see a retlacement. So let's
- 12:31Speaker 2: watch digital services that could be affected on this as well.
- 12:35Speaker 2: I want to go back to the Port of La
- 12:37Speaker 2: director because he has another situation. May is there some
- 12:42Speaker 2: other solution that could be done. Take a look and what.
- 12:44Speaker 5: Happens if we get a deal.
- 12:46Speaker 4: If we get a deal, it's going to take about
- 12:48Speaker 4: a month. Let me walk you through that real quick.
- 12:50Speaker 4: About two weeks to get the ships repositioned around these
- 12:53Speaker 4: major ports from chin Dau to Shanhai to jah Men,
- 12:57Speaker 4: load up all those containers, and then another two weeks
- 13:00Speaker 4: steam across the Pacific to get to US. This is
- 13:02Speaker 4: important because now we're talking about spring and summer fashion,
- 13:06Speaker 4: so we're kind of at a crux here that we've
- 13:08Speaker 4: got to have something pretty quick and back to school,
- 13:10Speaker 4: which is I think very critical when it comes to
- 13:12Speaker 4: political pushback for this administration.
- 13:15Speaker 5: We have a story out was anecdotal reporting as well.
- 13:17Speaker 5: We've heard about China quietly starting to exempt about a
- 13:20Speaker 5: quarter of US imports. Are any US importers exempting Chinese tariffs.
- 13:25Speaker 5: Is there a way to get around the one hundred
- 13:27Speaker 5: and forty five percent? Not really.
- 13:28Speaker 4: There may be some exceptions, am Marie, maybe a little
- 13:31Speaker 4: bit going north or south of US, but realistically speaking,
- 13:34Speaker 4: nobody is out there talking a lot about Hey, I
- 13:37Speaker 4: got a better deal coming out of China right now,
- 13:39Speaker 4: but we've got to get a move on here. The
- 13:41Speaker 4: other thing is that retailers are saying, we've got about
- 13:44Speaker 4: five to seven weeks of normal inventory in the country
- 13:47Speaker 4: right now. Then we start to see spots shortages if
- 13:49Speaker 4: it goes on much beyond this.
- 13:52Speaker 2: All right, you've got to consider spots shortages. The impact
- 13:56Speaker 2: on a lot of different industries, and including one of
- 13:59Speaker 2: our biggest industry, is that as automakers right here, Ford
- 14:02Speaker 2: cut their forward guidance and said tariffs would cost right
- 14:06Speaker 2: now the company somewhere around one point five billion this
- 14:09Speaker 2: year in twenty twenty five. Kind of interesting that it's
- 14:12Speaker 2: been sliding for quite some time, but back in nineteen
- 14:16Speaker 2: eighty seven you could add your best price on Ford,
- 14:19Speaker 2: So kudos to you guys that they sold on that point.
- 14:22Speaker 2: But the point being is that it is going to
- 14:24Speaker 2: have an effect even on American automakers because there's a
- 14:27Speaker 2: lot of parts that come in from China and other
- 14:28Speaker 2: places around the world that will have an effect. Now,
- 14:31Speaker 2: granted all of this is still hypothetical. We still have
- 14:34Speaker 2: to see it implemented and executed at a level that
- 14:38Speaker 2: starts stem pack trade. Now, what the poor director was
- 14:41Speaker 2: talking about there is that there could be a little
- 14:44Speaker 2: bit of a lag. That'll be interesting to see how
- 14:47Speaker 2: markets respond to that lag. That again is something that
- 14:50Speaker 2: is still not completely locked in. But here's the Ford
- 14:53Speaker 2: CEO talking about this and the impact they'd have on
- 14:57Speaker 2: the company. For a while, take a look.
- 15:00Speaker 6: Thank you want you beat on the top of the
- 15:01Speaker 6: bottom line, but you had a big drop in net profits.
- 15:04Speaker 6: But it's the guidance that everybody's focused on. You are
- 15:07Speaker 6: expecting an impact of one point five billion dollars because
- 15:10Speaker 6: of tariffs this year. You've suspended your guidance. Do you
- 15:14Speaker 6: expect these tariffs to be in place permanently?
- 15:16Speaker 7: We do, at least for the next three years. So
- 15:19Speaker 7: we think it's, you know, a significant issue for the company.
- 15:24Speaker 6: You probably have had several conversations with the president. Has
- 15:27Speaker 6: he ever said to you moved back some of these
- 15:29Speaker 6: plants from Mexico?
- 15:31Speaker 7: Well, absolutely, that is the administration's goals. But the other
- 15:35Speaker 7: thing we have to balance here is really important is affordability.
- 15:39Speaker 7: We can move everything in the US, but if every
- 15:42Speaker 7: ford is fifty thousand dollars, you know we're not going
- 15:44Speaker 7: to win as a company, all right.
- 15:47Speaker 2: So interesting, you know he kind of went out a
- 15:49Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago he said he's four tariffs. Now
- 15:51Speaker 2: he's talking anti tariff. This is but it will have
- 15:56Speaker 2: I think some longer effects on many of these companies.
- 15:59Speaker 2: So what are people doing and how are they playing
- 16:02Speaker 2: this market right now? Well, Gold to a hike up
- 16:05Speaker 2: in the last couple of days, breaking now gold ha
- 16:07Speaker 2: sends this two day game to a plus one point
- 16:09Speaker 2: sixty surges back to thirty four hundred announced. If you
- 16:12Speaker 2: look at the gold chart right here, you can kind
- 16:14Speaker 2: of see not a bad move here for gold in
- 16:17Speaker 2: a very short period of time. We haven't seen that
- 16:19Speaker 2: kind of move on Bitcoin at least of recent though.
- 16:22Speaker 2: If you do look at the Bitcoin chart, it's starting
- 16:25Speaker 2: to somewhat hold sideways after a nice little run up
- 16:29Speaker 2: here last couple of weeks. So how are you guys
- 16:32Speaker 2: playing this? Let me know in the comments down below.
- 16:34Speaker 2: Make sure by the way, hit the like button right
- 16:36Speaker 2: now on this video. We always love to get your feedback,
- 16:39Speaker 2: and when you like this video, it helps you know,
- 16:42Speaker 2: generate a little bit more algorithm out there within it
- 16:44Speaker 2: as well. Other points I want to hit on before
- 16:47Speaker 2: I get out of here. A couple of issues that
- 16:49Speaker 2: you have to consider also is what's happening on Ethereum. Well,
- 16:52Speaker 2: the pector upgrade is getting ready to land twenty four
- 16:55Speaker 2: hours away, and I think a lot of people are
- 16:57Speaker 2: underrating it now. Will it change things dramatically? We are
- 17:00Speaker 2: going to see much faster throughput in DeFi We're going
- 17:04Speaker 2: to see obviously wallet's become smart contracts. There's a lot
- 17:07Speaker 2: of potential in blob capacity as well. I know that's
- 17:10Speaker 2: a technical term. But getting into the point of it's
- 17:13Speaker 2: going to make Ethereum better, does it do anything to
- 17:16Speaker 2: the price? I don't think so. I think right now
- 17:19Speaker 2: we probably are waiting for more macro impact than an
- 17:23Speaker 2: upgrade from Ethereum to see Ethereum's price move now. A
- 17:27Speaker 2: couple of points, everybody's asking are you hawkis? Are you dubbish?
- 17:31Speaker 2: I am still dubbish on the market. I feel somewhat
- 17:34Speaker 2: confident that we are in a position where the market
- 17:38Speaker 2: could rebound fairly significantly, even though it's already technically rebounded.
- 17:42Speaker 2: But I'm also looking at two things, and obviously the
- 17:45Speaker 2: biggest is the Chinese tear us. If we can lock
- 17:48Speaker 2: anything that is remotely positive on a deal with China,
- 17:53Speaker 2: that changes the outlook dramatically. And I think the other
- 17:57Speaker 2: thing you got to look at is ray cuts may
- 18:00Speaker 2: and probably not in June July. Possibly I would agree
- 18:04Speaker 2: that is most likely going to be the case if
- 18:06Speaker 2: you look at I think at rate cuts here on July,
- 18:11Speaker 2: so July thirty, that's still a fifty to fifty chance
- 18:14Speaker 2: right now. But some people still pushing for a little
- 18:17Speaker 2: bit of a decrease as well. Do I think we're
- 18:20Speaker 2: going to see a crasher, a pump. I think we're
- 18:22Speaker 2: gonna go sideways. Maybe Bitcoin does get an adjustment, and
- 18:26Speaker 2: I think the point of adjustment may get back under ninety,
- 18:30Speaker 2: but don't be surprised if a tariff deal, some random
- 18:34Speaker 2: deal starts to move the dominoes. And if that occurs
- 18:38Speaker 2: and there's any indication that this is off the table, boom.
- 18:42Speaker 2: The other thing that could happen this week is a
- 18:45Speaker 2: stable coin bill. If we get that coming through again
- 18:48Speaker 2: more activity, which will cause a pump in the market,
- 18:51Speaker 2: not a crash. I don't necessarily see a downward trend
- 18:55Speaker 2: unless we see some bad news really starting to push in.
- 18:58Speaker 2: It doesn't appear to be the case.
- 18:59Speaker 1: All right.
- 19:00Speaker 2: If you guys are not in the diamond circle, get
- 19:01Speaker 2: in right now. Follow me out there on X at
- 19:04Speaker 2: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time. Right here on
- 19:06Speaker 2: Techpath