Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 343 - 9/1/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 343 - 9/1/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 343 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Monday, happy 1st of September.
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That's right. Feels like summer is pretty much
0:42
officially over. It's feeling a lot like fall.
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If you're in New England like me, starting to get cooler
0:46
temps, feels like the leaves are starting to change.
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And you know what that means, guys?
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It is our favorite time of year. It's the busiest time of year.
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It's football season. It's officially upon us.
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We do have a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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We have a primetime matchup, TCU and North Carolina, pretty nice.
1:04
We got a Monday Night Football game.
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It's not NFL, it's college. So shout out to Bill Belichick
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and my Belichick and my old friend Michael Lombardi, who I
1:12
used to work with for I think it was like 4 years on the Lombardi
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line. They're making their debut here
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for North Carolina and I got to play on this one.
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It's kind of right up my alley in terms of what we look for,
1:23
trying to stay true to the line movement, the splits, the system
1:26
matches. So do have a best bet here on
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TCU against North Carolina. And then also we got to talk NFL
1:33
Week 1. Officially, it's here.
1:35
This is Week 1. So now we're going to get into
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the routine of betting NFL on a weekly basis as well as college.
1:41
So I do want to talk about #1 some Week 1 betting systems.
1:45
Now, hint, hints. If you've ever done some NFL
1:48
seasons with me before, whether it was a previous podcast or my
1:52
write ups for VSN, you know, I like to bet a lot of dogs when
1:54
it comes to Week 1. So I'm gonna give you some dog
1:57
system matches. I got 12345 dog systems that
2:01
have done very, very well historically.
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And I'm gonna give you some system matches.
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What teams are taking in smart money and these system plays.
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So 3 in particular I'm excited to talk about.
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And of course we're going to talk TCU and UNC.
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So it's going to be 1 best bet for tonight, the college game.
2:15
But then we got to start our prep for Week 1 of the NFL and
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man, it is nice to have football back in our lives.
2:22
Now before we get to our our play for tonight and our
2:24
breakdown for Belcheck's debut and talking NFL of course, I
2:28
want to say it feels good to be back because I haven't seen you
2:30
guys in a while. I was off last week, although I
2:33
still wrote my sharp reports. If you follow the all systems go
2:36
best bets officially from the Juice Reel app.
2:38
You could have gotten the plays while I was gone, but I spent a
2:40
week on Cape Cod with the family.
2:43
Specifically. We had a Airbnb or Verbo VRBO
2:47
house which was awesome, right next to Skakeit Beach in
2:50
Orleans. So you got to go kind of further
2:53
up the coast and on your way to Provincetown and it was me, my
2:57
wife, my mom and dad, my sister, my brother-in-law, my 2 nieces,
3:00
my aunt. We had my other aunt and uncle
3:02
visit and it's really one of the best times of year.
3:05
So unfortunately you didn't get any pods last week because I was
3:08
too busy soaking up the rays on the beach and eating seafood and
3:11
lobster rolls and having a grand old time.
3:14
But it is great to be back and I do apologize, no pods, but I'm
3:17
feeling refreshed, ready to go. And sometimes you got to
3:19
recharge the batteries right before you get to obviously the
3:22
busy part of the year. But with that being said, we did
3:25
have a Rhythm live stream that I was Co host my buddy Cade, which
3:29
is now every Thursday. So hope to see you guys there.
3:31
It's just a live Twitter stream. We will have some more graphics
3:35
and cut ups and everything kind of lined up here.
3:37
So you can always catch that every 6:00 Eastern Time Thursday
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night. But we did some plays that cash.
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So maybe you played South Florida against Boise State.
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Everyone playing Boise line kept dipping towards South Florida.
3:49
They won outright. How about Cincinnati getting 7?
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Everyone in the world was on Nebraska.
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Primetime game at Arrowhead, but that line pretty much stayed.
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Line freeze or reverse line move toward Nebraska.
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I also got into a Twitter beef about RLM not being real.
4:03
When I try to explain it, people still don't get it.
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So you can check my Twitter for some entertainment at Josh under
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Score Insights today. But then Ohio State, hey, we did
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see a move toward Texas, but that was a buy low spot on Ohio
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State. They're a contrarian play.
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I did have a system match to two ranked teams to take the home
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favorite. Ohio State came through and then
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last night had to sweat it. They almost blew it.
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But Miami and Carson Beck came through because they were a
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ultimate line freeze RLM play. You had everybody in their
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mother on the Irish, but that line pretty much stayed Irish -3
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even got down to 2 1/2. So maybe had some winners here
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for your Week 1 college football slate.
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Hopefully that's the first of many to come this season.
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But as always, guys, we're going right back to what we love to
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do. I do have some people reach out
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to me say, hey, any baseball plays for today.
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I'll be honest, there's some day games.
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There are games I was kind of leaning on, but didn't see a ton
4:53
in terms of system matches. So it's going to be an all
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football podcast here for today. So I hope that's OK with you.
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I think it might be real quick. I also want to shout out those
5:02
of you who continue to buy my new book.
5:05
I love you guys. Thank you.
5:06
It's called the NFL sharp betting playbook.
5:08
It's still the number one new release on Amazon.
5:11
So please, if you'd like to support the team and really prep
5:14
for NFL week 1 in the big season coming up, you can purchase the
5:17
NFL sharp betting playbook on Amazon.
5:20
And if you want to tweet me a photo of you holding the book, I
5:22
would love to give you a retweet.
5:24
And if you want to really be a hero, I would love a five star
5:27
review on a nice little message there on the Amazon page.
5:30
That would be great as well. But seriously, keep those tweets
5:33
coming. And I love the fact that you
5:34
guys seem to be enjoying a project of mine that took about
5:38
three years to get going. But anyway, guys, without
5:40
further ado, let's get after it. I want to start with, of course,
5:44
the big game tonight, college football, TCU and North
5:47
Carolina. So this one's kind of important
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to me for a couple different reasons.
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One, I'm a huge Patriots fan, born and raised.
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I soured on Belichick at the end.
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He completely lost it. But I'm interested to see
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Belichick's debut. Does the old man still have it
6:00
or is he in over his head? We'll see.
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And then also from a personal standpoint, my old friend
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Michael Lombardi, I, you may not know this, but for the first
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four years of my career at V Sin, I was the third man in on
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Lombardi line, myself, Michael Lombardi and Patrick Maher.
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So Michael Lombardi is now the general manager of North
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Carolina. So with all that being said, you
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know, you can't bet based on favoritism, based on bias,
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believe it or not, guys, I'm betting against Belichick.
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I'm betting against my buddy Michael Lombardi tonight.
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But let's set the stage here tonight, 8:00 only game in town
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on ESPNTCU at UNC. Always like to look at the first
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game, you know, what are the win totals look like?
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You know, how does that jive with how the team performed last
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year? Obviously college is crazy now
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because you got all these transfers in the portal and NIL.
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So things can change very quickly.
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But TCU last year went nine and four.
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Odds makers are expecting a little bit of a step back.
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Their win total is 6 1/2. This year it is juiced over -180
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so maybe they win seven or eight games.
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North Carolina, by the way, 6:00 and 7:00 last year.
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Their win total this year is 7 1/2.
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So you're thinking maybe they're a little bit better.
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However, the under is juiced -165 so maybe they land right on
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7. With that being said, what have
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we seen across the market here? Well, this line move is very
7:13
interesting because when this game opened way back in May, you
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got to go way, way back to the spring when we had these lines
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first appear and when they first dropped, UNC was actually a
7:23
favorite at a lot of shops. It was UNC around -1 1/2.
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But then by the time maybe came June, the early money poured in
7:30
on TCU at flipped TCU plus 1 1/2 to -2 1/2.
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We sat -2 1/2 TCU for a bit and then it got up to TCU -3.
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It is now TCU -3 1/2 and now we have a lot of shops -3 1/2 -,
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115. I'm seeing a couple shops even
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go up to -4 so whether you want to go back to, and some people
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told me, hey, this line open TCU -3 well, depends where you get
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your opener and kind of what opener you're going off of.
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But even if you go off the opener of three, all movement
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has been toward TCU. So on the one hand, we have to
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kind of first just accept the fact that there's really been no
8:06
buyback in North Carolina. I haven't really seen, you know,
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a three get down to 2 1/2 or a 3 1/2 get down to three.
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Like it's been nothing but movement away from Belichick
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toward TCU. That's the first thing I noticed
8:16
here. Next is the fact that this isn't
8:19
a public play on TCU. So we're kind of building a case
8:22
here for the Horn Frogs. If you look at the bet splits at
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DraftKings right now, nearly 60% of spread bets are taking the
8:29
points with Belichick. So let's let's put our reverse
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line move hat on those of you who don't believe in gravity.
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You don't have to, that's OK. But nearly 2/3 of bets are on
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North Carolina taking the points.
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Yet the the odds makers are giving the public more points.
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They say you like Belichick getting 3 here, I'll give you 3
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1/2. You like the 3 1/2 here, I'll
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give you a four. Why are the odds makers moving
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the line further toward TCU if the majority of tickets are on
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North Carolina? That's another dead giveaway to
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me that pros have laid it with TCU.
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So reverse line movement when the betting line goes away from
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the popular side, UNC toward the popular side.
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TCU also a fade, the trendy dog play.
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If you look at these splits right now, only about a third
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40% of tickets on TCU or DraftKings.
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That makes TCU a contrarian primetime play similar to Miami
9:18
last night. I know their home dog.
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Now TCU was a road favorite, but still it's a prime time game and
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the public is on the opponent. So I like to bet against the
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public in these primetime games, of course.
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So TCU has not only the sharp line move, but a contrarian
9:31
opportunity. And then I really like this at
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Circa out in Vegas caters to sharp betters.
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Only 47% of spread bets are on TCU.
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So it's a little more 5050, but 72% of the money money, money
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money is on TCU. So that tells me we got only
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about half the tickets with three out of $4.00 on North
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Carolina. Bigger wagers here on UNC or
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sorry on on TCU. I should say the angle here to
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me though is like if you got TCU earlier, you know somewhere
10:00
around to pick them. If you got it real early, shout
10:01
out to you if you diagnose that early.
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But if you're laying A2 and half, even a three on TCU,
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you're looking good right now. You're beating the closing line.
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It's hard for me to lay a three and half for four at this point
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because we're kind of getting the worst of it and we've gone
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through a key number. So TCU ends up winning by three.
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We lay a three and half for four.
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Obviously the most common margin of victory is that 3, because
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the most common method of scoring is field goal and then
10:24
seven for a touchdown. But if it lands on three early
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sharps who got the worm cover with TCU, we lose if you lay a
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three and half for four. So I'm going to go money line
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here. I'm going TCU to win the damn
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game. As I like to say, I was able to
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get TCU on the money line -170 a little bit earlier today at
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DraftKings. I believe the lowest price now
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is around -175 at FanDuel. So it's a little bit pricey, but
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I'm willing to pay that extra juice again on the off chance
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that TCU wins by three. A lot of books are at 18185 on
10:56
TCU. So of course, shop around.
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Looks like FanDuel is your best number.
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But the other angle that I like about not just paying more juice
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to mitigate the risk and have TCU win, but also Circa splits.
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If you look at the money line splits at Circa, only 24% of
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bets are on TCU, but they're getting 85% of the money.
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So that's a big, big discrepancy there.
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Tells me big money here is laying it with the horn frogs.
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So that's my play. I'm going to TCU to win this
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game. Publix, North Carolina lines
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going to TCU. We got pretty good splits.
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I'll also throw this in, you know, I'm, I'm pretty strictly
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a, you know, a data-driven better.
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But this kind of reminds me a little bit of Arch Manning's
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debut. Poor kid.
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You know, all the hype in the world and didn't play very well,
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but lot of hype around Belichick.
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It's a popular play like Arch Manning was.
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It's also Belichick's first college game.
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I know Arch Manning had played before, but it was really his
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first true kind of start. You know, there's a lot of
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transfers on North Carolina, so TCU brings back their QB.
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North Carolina's got like a million new players and
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transfers. So first game for Belichick in
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college. The rules are different.
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I know he's a genius, but it's not the same as the pros.
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A lot of transfers, a lot of hype like Arch Manning and kind
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of like the angle of betting against that popular big name
12:10
player or coach here. So that's another angle.
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Now, if you tell me you're betting the total, I think
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you're probably going to go under in this one.
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I would lean pretty heavily to the under total open as high as
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59. It's all the way down to 54 and
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a half, 54 even when I was writing the sharp report for
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visa.com earlier this morning, like 10 AM, this total was 55
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1/2. So not only has it fallen from
12:31
open to current, but even game day, Steam has really hammered
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this under. And if you look at circa 62% of
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bets, 92% of dollars are on the under.
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Really good split there. And it's also a classic prime
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time under or typically in prime time, you kind of lean under
12:46
just in general. But I would lean under.
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But my only official play here, I'm going TCU to win the damn
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game. Sharp reverse line, move, fade
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the trendy dog. I'm on TCU money line.
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I got him at -170 at DraftKings again.
13:01
Looks like your best number right now is around -175 at
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FanDuel. Now let's move over to the NFL
13:08
because it is opening week of the NFL.
13:10
So I'd love for you guys if you're interested to join my
13:12
survivor pool. 25 bucks through Splash Sports.
13:15
You can win up to $11,000. You can reach out to me and I'll
13:19
put the links in the podcast bio, but let me know if you're
13:22
interested. But I want to talk generally
13:25
about week one of the NFL and then give you some concrete
13:27
examples of games that are on my radar, which I might be playing
13:31
now. You get to week 1.
13:33
There's a lot of public bias in the market.
13:35
Public hasn't bet the NFL in, you know, six months and #1 it's
13:39
the most heavily bet public sport in general.
13:41
Again, if you want to get in the nitty gritty, buy my book, the
13:43
NFL Shark Betting Playbook. Look, I'm giving you the Cliffs,
13:46
Cliffs Notes right now, but in general, I'd like to bet against
13:49
the public in football because it's got the most public bias,
13:53
highest ticket counts, the most public action.
13:56
When it gets to Week 1 though, it's kind of anti public betting
13:59
on steroids. So contrarian betting, because
14:02
the public is going to bet on favorites.
14:03
They love to get the better team.
14:04
So therefore dogs have a lot of value.
14:07
Every team is healthy, everybody's even.
14:09
There's a lot of element of unpredictability.
14:11
You see a lot of upsets Week 1. Really the cream rises to the
14:15
top. The good teams kind of show
14:16
themselves as the as the season progresses, but weird things can
14:19
happen in Week 1. You also look at the public bias
14:23
where they're going to bet on teams who were who were good
14:25
last year, who they remember being good.
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They're very biased toward what they saw last, recency bias.
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So if you can kind of go the other way, look at dogs, look at
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Rd. dogs, dogs who missed the postseason the previous year,
14:37
division dogs are the built in familiarity, dogs getting big
14:40
points. These are all kind of my go to
14:43
spots in week one of the NFL. So I'm going to give you my 5
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top system matches. And again, betting system
14:50
matches are different, a different style of betting.
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You're betting based on the situation.
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And then I try to combine like the historical spot with what
14:57
the current data is telling me. But let's just start in general.
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Let's go back to 2016. This is a near 10 year sample,
15:03
big sample week one dogs in the NFL since 2016.
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They are 78 and 62 against the spread.
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That is a 56% win rate, 8% ROI, $100 better.
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Taking every dog since week 1 or week one dog since 2016 is up
15:19
nearly $1100. So week one dogs have barked.
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Week 1 Rd. dogs you just isolate instead of home, Just home dogs.
15:27
Look at the road dogs because again public likes home teams.
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Week 1 Rd. dogs since 20/16/52 and 36 ATS, 59 percent 14% ROI.
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Week 1 dogs who missed the postseason the previous year.
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Public thinks you're terrible, you didn't make the playoffs,
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you stink right? Don't.
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Don't play those teams. Actually they've done pretty
15:45
well in week 159 and 45 ATS. 57 percent, 10% ROI.
15:51
Week 1 divisional dogs. Two teams from the same
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division. Take the team getting points
15:56
that built in familiarity levels the playing field benefits the
15:58
team getting points. Those teams are 31 and 16 ACE
16:02
ATS since 2016. 66% 26% ROI. Then you get your big dogs.
16:09
Typically you see some tight games here, especially early,
16:13
which is why dogs are covering. But if you're a weak one dog
16:15
getting 6 1/2 points or more, those teams are 25 and 12
16:20
against the spread. 68 percent, 31% ROI.
16:25
So week one dogs, week 1 Rd. dogs, week one dogs who missed
16:28
the post season the previous year, Week 1 divisional dogs,
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week one dog. 6 1/2 or more. And I have another system, a
16:34
weak one dog in which both teams missed the post season the
16:37
previous year. That's 59% against the spread,
16:40
13% ROI. So that's just kind of my
16:42
overarching OK, what has worked in week 1 historically, it's
16:46
been these system matches, but then what I try to do is marry
16:50
these matches with sharp action in the betting market.
16:53
So here are a few games that I landed on that caught my eye.
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One, believe it or not, Steelers at The Jets.
16:59
Aaron Rodgers Revenge game Used to play for The Jets, of course,
17:03
but this one's notable to me because this game opened
17:06
Pittsburgh basically a 2 1/2 or 3 point Rd. favorite and the
17:10
public is all on the Steelers. Mike Tomlin never has a losing
17:14
ear, yadda yadda Aaron Rodgers. So currently you're getting 69%
17:19
of spread bets laying the -3 with Pittsburgh on the road.
17:23
However, it's stayed Pittsburgh -3 line freeze on The Jets and
17:27
it's even moved down to 2 1/2 at quite a few shops.
17:31
So why this reminds me a little bit of the the Notre Dame Miami
17:34
game. Very similar, you know, kind of
17:36
the road favorite -3 yet the line is falling or staying the
17:40
same or falling toward the home unpopular dog.
17:42
So Jets only getting 39%. They're contrarian in a heavily
17:46
back game. The lines coming back to The
17:48
Jets, they would match as a weak one dog who missed the playoffs
17:51
the previous year, 57% ATS. Also, correlative betting, this
17:56
is a very low total of 38 1/2 and actually fell from 39 1/2.
17:59
It could be a low scoring game. It's typically good for a dog
18:02
getting points. So I'm looking at maybe Jets
18:06
plus 3 here and again, thinking maybe bread sooner rather than
18:10
later because some books are dropping down to 2 1/2.
18:12
But for me, if you're playing Jets, you got to get the three.
18:15
They look kind of sharp. Sharp contrarian line.
18:17
Freeze RLM Jets plus three caught my eye.
18:20
Now don't laugh, but the G men giants at the Washington
18:24
Commanders Commanders are going to blow them out right?
18:26
Jane Daniels giant stink. However, currently the
18:31
Washington Commanders are getting 61% of spread bets.
18:34
So nearly 2/3 of bets laying it with the Commanders.
18:38
But the Commanders actually opened around A7 point favorite
18:41
at home and the line is down to 6 1/2 six.
18:44
I even see one book at 5 1/2. So why is the line going toward
18:48
the Giants if the big majority of tickets are going with the
18:52
Washington Commanders? Classic reverse line move tells
18:55
me smart money has taken the points of the Giants.
18:58
It's very contrarian at at DraftKings, only 39% on the on
19:05
the Giants. But if you look over at Circa,
19:08
only 33% of bets but 91% of dollars are on the Giants.
19:12
So the Giants, man, they look pretty sharp.
19:15
You're getting some good movement on the G men, believe
19:16
it or not, I have a lot of system matches on the Giants.
19:19
Divisional dogs week 166% ATS, Rd. dog week 159% ATS.
19:25
Dog miss postseason week 157% ATS.
19:29
And also Russell Wilson as a dog in his career, 62% against the
19:32
spread. So again, Washington looks like
19:35
they got to blow him out, right? Well, line keeps going toward
19:38
the G men. G men look pretty sharp here, I
19:40
must admit. Another gross one.
19:43
Cincinnati at Cleveland. Joe Burrow, you know, they
19:46
locked up, you know, Jamar Chase, T Higgins, they gave
19:49
money to Hendrickson, you know this is an easy win for
19:52
Cincinnati, right At Cleveland. However, we open this game with
19:57
the Cincinnati Bengals basically a six point Rd. favorite.
20:01
We're now down to 5 1/2. Some shops even down to 5.
20:06
Now that's notable because 76% of spread bets are going with
20:10
the Bengals. So three out of four bets are on
20:12
Bengals. Shouldn't they go -6 up to -7?
20:16
No, they're actually down to 5 1/2, even 5.
20:18
So why is this line falling toward Cleveland if everybody
20:22
and their mother is landed with Joe Burrow tells me you got
20:24
smart money on Cleveland. Cleveland is only getting 24% of
20:28
bets at DK. So a very bet against the public
20:33
contrarian opportunity. But if you look at circa 32% of
20:36
spread bets, 88% of spread dollars on Cleveland, remember,
20:40
it's going to be Joe Flacco, not Shoulder.
20:43
But that's a huge split in favor of Cleveland.
20:45
Now we layer in our systems. Divisional dog, 66% ATS, week
20:49
one dog, missed postseason, 57% ATS.
20:52
Week one. Week one dog, both missed the
20:54
postseason, 59% ATS, 13% ROI. So Lions moving toward
20:59
Cleveland. Cleveland's getting a lot of
21:01
system matches. Lions moving toward The Jets
21:03
system matches. Lion is moving toward the Giants
21:06
system matches. So obviously there's a lot of
21:09
other games that fit, you know, these systems, like let me just
21:12
give you a couple here. If you look at, let me see this
21:16
one, the big one. So week one, dogs getting 6 1/2
21:20
or more. I told you that one was almost
21:22
70% against the spread. You know, if you're going to
21:25
hold your nose, Dallas Cowboys, no one wants to play the
21:27
Cowboys. They're getting 7 1/2.
21:30
Looks like you may want the hook.
21:31
It could get down to seven. You also look at, believe it or
21:33
not, the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans Saints, where are
21:37
they at? Let me find them real quick.
21:40
They're at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
21:42
Now, the line did move toward Arizona was as low as -4 1/2 up
21:46
to six, 6 1/2. But buying low on New Orleans as
21:50
a big dog, 6 1/2 or more Tennessee Titans playing the
21:54
Denver Broncos. Tennessee Titans are line move
21:58
toward Denver. It was -7 half up to minus.
22:00
Looks like 989 now at this point, might come back down, but
22:05
Tennessee would be an inflated system match here.
22:08
So Long story short, I gave you the blueprint.
22:10
These are all the plays that are, you know, cash
22:13
historically. Now it's up to us to kind of
22:15
marry these historical betting system matches with what the
22:19
market today is telling us. So there's a lot of other games
22:22
here. There's a lot of other games
22:23
that have caught my eye, but I'm going to try to kind of focus on
22:27
the top ones here that kind of combine both the past with the
22:31
present. So again, no official bets for
22:33
me. I'm going to monitor the monitor
22:35
these games. Of course, you can follow my All
22:38
Systems Go best bets from the Juice Reel app.
22:40
If I put them in, you'll get them there immediately.
22:41
It costs $4.99 a week. But but these are the games that
22:46
are on my radar and maybe they're on your radar as well.
22:49
But for tonight, let's just go TCU win the damn game.
22:53
I got them again -170 at, at DraftKings earlier today.
22:58
So that about does it for episode 343 of the All Systems
23:02
Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:05
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
23:07
start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
23:10
out of your day. And also I'm going to say sorry,
23:11
sorry, I didn't have any pods last week.
23:13
But hey, there's only one week of the year where I get to spend
23:16
it with my entire family. So it was worth it.
23:20
But I miss you guys. I'm glad to get back in the
23:21
swing of things. But anyway, thank you for
23:23
listening to the pod. If you do enjoy these insights,
23:26
you enjoy the breakdowns, you want to learn more about
23:28
data-driven bedding, Obviously we'll get to that in a second,
23:31
but I would love for you to help me grow this podcast.
23:34
Recommend it to a friend, give it a five star review in the App
23:37
Store, leave a nice note, hit the follow button.
23:40
That'll all be very much appreciated.
23:42
Give it a five star review in iTunes or Spotify.
23:45
Next, as I was alluding to, if you enjoy these data-driven
23:49
insights, you want to learn more about data-driven bedding, you
23:53
maybe have a friend who could use some tips.
23:54
You have a buddy who doesn't know what reverse line movement
23:57
movement is. Or maybe you had a buddy who
23:59
said, yeah, Hammer the Irish, Hammer Texas.
24:02
And maybe you have a friend or a colleague or family member who
24:05
maybe wants to bet on sports, never has done it before and
24:07
wants to try with the NFL. Well, I would be very humbled
24:10
and honored if you guys wanted to go to Amazon.com and type in
24:14
the Everything Guide to sports betting and then also the NFL
24:16
Sharp Betting Playbook, my two books, they're both available to
24:19
purchase. Everything Guide is pretty much
24:21
just a intro to data-driven betting as a whole.
24:24
But of course, hey NFL, it's week 1 here.
24:27
And if you want to support the team and help me stay at the
24:29
number one ranking here on Amazon, I'd love for you guys to
24:32
buy the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook from Amazon.
24:35
And if you would like to give them both a five star review and
24:38
a nice, nice little note there on Amazon, I would very much
24:41
appreciate that as well. You can bring the Everything
24:44
Guide and the Sharp Betting Playbook to the sports book.
24:46
I'll sign them for you and I'll buy you a beer next.
24:50
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
24:52
My two favorite sports betting apps, Rhythm got to make sure
24:55
you tune in every Thursday Night Live on Twitter, 6:00 myself and
24:59
my buddy Cade. But then also you got to
25:02
download Rhythm. Great for their AI back models
25:04
and predictions for game bets and player props.
25:06
I'm actually going to go over Rhythm with all their
25:08
predictions for some of these dogs.
25:10
Maybe we'll have a Rhythm edge where you know, dogs getting 6
25:13
and Rhythm says they should be plus 4.2.
25:15
With download Rhythm, it's a great way to kind of just add
25:17
another layer of of insight and when you're breaking on your
25:20
games. And then of course, you got to
25:22
download Juice Reel, another great, fantastic app.
25:26
If you would like to support the pod, it cost you nothing.
25:28
It's free to listen to this pod. If you'd like to support the
25:30
team, go sign up to get those $4.99 a week best bets directly
25:35
from the juice real app. You'll get them as soon as I bet
25:38
them, hopefully beat some closing numbers, maybe get maybe
25:40
you'll follow and you got TCU a little bit earlier today at a
25:43
better price, but also getting at the robo Jackson best bet
25:45
picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays
25:48
the shop for the best line futures all available inside of
25:52
the juice reel app. So download juice reel download
25:54
rhythm. It'll be off and running with
25:56
two great sports betting apps and give them a five star review
25:59
in the App Store as well. Next, do you have a live odds
26:03
page? If you don't, you need one.
26:05
It's so important. I can't even tell you how hard
26:07
it would be without a live odds page.
26:09
You know you got to track the market.
26:11
The live odds page allows you to do that gives you all of the
26:14
opening numbers for every game and then obviously the current
26:17
numbers to the right so you can see which direction the line is
26:19
move. You can play that off the bet
26:21
splits if you want to get those from visen.com, but you're also
26:24
going to be able to shop for the best price, get the best
26:26
numbers, identify steam teams getting steam.
26:29
The whole row gets lit up and you can hop on a slow moving
26:32
book if you want to play it. Also, you follow all the market
26:36
setting books like Pinnacle circa as well as you know, like
26:39
bet online and Chris and those kind of books.
26:43
But really it's just a all-encompassing tool that you
26:45
need if you're going to bet on sports and track the market.
26:48
Because you know, like if you're betting investing in stocks and
26:51
stuff, you need an E*Trade account.
26:52
Well, you're betting on sports, you need a live odds account.
26:54
So I would highly recommend you give odds logic a shot, a
26:58
chance, whatever you want. 7 day free trial, 50% off your first
27:02
month. Just go to oddslogic.com/josh
27:06
123. So that about does it for
27:09
today's pod. Getting back in the swing of
27:11
things. I missed you guys, but I'm ready
27:13
refreshed and I got a little bit of a tan, so it's good to be
27:16
back. And hey, the long the long
27:19
summer, even though I kind of enjoyed betting baseball every
27:21
day, I must admit. But it's great to have football
27:24
back and we're about to have some fun and hopefully cash some
27:27
tickets here guys. So as always, I'm leave you with
27:29
two final thoughts, whether I see you at the Borgata in
27:32
Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
27:34
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut.
27:37
Actually, after my Cape Cod trip, we went to upstate New
27:42
York, Westmoreland, Rome, NY for the funeral of my my
27:46
brother-in-law or my father in law's brother.
27:49
We stayed at Turning Stone Resort and Casino.
27:51
It was actually really, really nice.
27:52
So maybe I'll see you at Turning Stone one day.
27:55
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
27:57
or Billy Walters sends his number runners where the lowest
28:00
use possible is found at the South Point.
28:02
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
28:05
swimming pool when they catch a big ticket at circle, wherever
28:07
it may be. You're going to walk up to me
28:10
and maybe over the past week you had and got down in cash to
28:13
ticket on you USF South Florida, Cincinnati, OH state, Miami.
28:19
Show me one of those tickets. First one's on me, next one's on
28:22
you. We'll post about the book.
28:23
Sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long.
28:26
So as always, guys, whether we're hot weather or cold,
28:28
coming off of three and OO and 3A2 and one O 1 and 2 is going
28:32
to be ups and downs. Betting ain't easy.
28:34
Remember that when you're struggling, you're not going to
28:36
get down on yourself because you know this is hard to win
28:38
consistently. Also, when you're hot, you're
28:40
going, you know things are going your way and you're cashing
28:42
tickets, you're on a big nice win streak.
28:45
Don't get cocky, don't get arrogant.
28:47
You know you're never as hot as or good as you think when you're
28:49
hot. You're never as bad as you think
28:50
when you're cold. We just got to keep grinding,
28:52
staying true to the model and not betting every game, but just
28:54
betting the games that fit our system match.
28:57
So you might know by now or if you don't, that's OK too.
29:00
We're looking for games that go like this against the public,
29:03
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
29:06
that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
29:08
to be successful sports bettors. So let's go horn frogs hope got
29:13
a hope. Hoping TCU gets a winner here
29:15
for tonight and then stay tuned, guys.
29:17
We got a big week ahead. Probably bet some baseball
29:19
tomorrow and layer in some some plays here as we get closer to
29:23
week one in the NFL. But good luck everybody.
29:26
I will see you tomorrow. A big Tuesday edition episode
29:29
344 of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
29:34
rhythm. Good luck everybody and enjoy
29:36
TCU and UNC.