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Should Tigers Trade For Nolan Arenado? · Tiger Territory: A Detroit Tigers Podcast

0:06
Speaker 1: And welcome into another episode of Tiger Territory, a Detroit
0:10
Speaker 1: Tigers podcast part of the Foul Territory Network. I'm Kieren
0:13
Speaker 1: Steckley with me as always as a man who would
0:15
Speaker 1: never saw varsity's horns off because that'd be cruel. He
0:21
Speaker 1: is Cody Stavenhagen. How you doing.
0:23
Speaker 2: Doing good care? And it's December? Man, where did the
0:26
Speaker 2: time go? We're going to be in Lakeland like before
0:28
Speaker 2: you know it. The off season is flying, even though
0:31
Speaker 2: nothing has really happened.
0:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you know, because you're going to be here
0:35
Speaker 1: in my neck of the woods as of all the
0:37
Speaker 1: powers would be. We'll be in my neck of the
0:39
Speaker 1: woods here pretty soon for winter meetings. Maybe some things
0:44
Speaker 1: will happen by then, but as of now, I was
0:47
Speaker 1: kind of looking at it.
0:49
Speaker 2: It's been a.
0:49
Speaker 1: Pretty quiet off season, but also noisy off season for
0:54
Speaker 1: the Tigers because you know, aj Hitch did a little
0:57
Speaker 1: bit of a media tour. He was Manager of the
0:59
Speaker 1: Year lists, you know, which included this podcast. So you
1:03
Speaker 1: can go back and listen to it, or you can
1:04
Speaker 1: go back and watch it on YouTube. Very entertaining if
1:07
Speaker 1: my bias opinion is valid there. So he did a
1:11
Speaker 1: media tour, and then obviously there was the schooble element
1:14
Speaker 1: with everything.
1:15
Speaker 2: You know, so.
1:17
Speaker 1: They're in the news. The Tigers have been in the news,
1:21
Speaker 1: but not really A lot has happened so much so
1:24
Speaker 1: that like we you know, we start talking big picture stuff.
1:27
Speaker 1: A couple of things slipped through the cracks, so I
1:29
Speaker 1: guess we should talk about them here for a second.
1:32
Speaker 1: But overall, when you look back, you say, you just
1:36
Speaker 1: started this, like, oh my god, it's December, and you
1:39
Speaker 1: start thinking like, we don't really have much tangible to
1:43
Speaker 1: look at. And I actually had this lot too. I
1:45
Speaker 1: went back and looked at it. So just some random
1:48
Speaker 1: moves that Scott Harris had made, you know, the past
1:51
Speaker 1: two off seasons. He signed Jack Flaherty on December twentieth,
1:56
Speaker 1: so like, obviously we're not quite there yet, but you know,
1:59
Speaker 1: you would, we would be in the in the realm.
2:01
Speaker 1: Ma Ato was signed on November twenty eighth, so now
2:05
Speaker 1: we're past that as we record this.
2:07
Speaker 2: On December.
2:07
Speaker 1: First, the Canna tray. You remember how early the Cana
2:11
Speaker 1: tray was last year?
2:12
Speaker 2: Right away? It was a couple of days after that, PERI.
2:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, November fourth, and Jahan, the Jimenez trade a couple
2:19
Speaker 1: of years ago. That was on December seventh. So we're
2:24
Speaker 1: in theory kind of getting close to some of these
2:27
Speaker 1: moves happening, but as of now, just not a whole lot,
2:30
Speaker 1: which is funny because interest in the team is higher
2:33
Speaker 1: than it's been in a while.
2:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would oh that like I would expect that
2:39
Speaker 2: to change relatively soon. Now. This is also the case
2:43
Speaker 2: for a lot of teams across the league. The entire
2:46
Speaker 2: market is of course being held up by Juan Soto,
2:49
Speaker 2: especially for hitters, until Soto signs. I don't think Pelonso
2:53
Speaker 2: is going to sign. I don't think Christian Walker's going
2:55
Speaker 2: to sign. I don't think Bregman is going to sign.
2:57
Speaker 2: Like there's going to be a massive trickle down effect
2:59
Speaker 2: after so those signs, which we might be getting pretty
3:02
Speaker 2: close to happening now, I am a little surprised there
3:05
Speaker 2: hasn't been more movement on the pitching market, especially the
3:08
Speaker 2: low end pitching market, the one year deals that the
3:11
Speaker 2: Tigers in theory are seeking, Like, so, I wonder will
3:15
Speaker 2: that change in the next week or two. Could we
3:18
Speaker 2: see a Walker Buehler type guy sign, whether it's with
3:22
Speaker 2: the Tigers or someone else. I think that the wheels
3:25
Speaker 2: on that are about to get moving. I mean, Blake
3:28
Speaker 2: Snell just signed, so maybe some teams that were in
3:31
Speaker 2: after him now begin their pivot. Like the market is
3:34
Speaker 2: set a little bit contract wise, I think some things
3:37
Speaker 2: are gonna start going. I wouldn't be shocked for the
3:40
Speaker 2: Tigers make a pitching acquisition here in the near future.
3:44
Speaker 2: And the quiet nature also might hint toward the Tigers
3:48
Speaker 2: being interested in the trade market. I don't think that
3:51
Speaker 2: doesn't mean they're interested in free agency. We can talk
3:53
Speaker 2: about that a little bit more as this episode goes on,
3:57
Speaker 2: but clearly they're interested in the trade market, and those
3:59
Speaker 2: things by the very nature, I think or tend to
4:02
Speaker 2: take longer to play out. Also, the Sodo thing can
4:05
Speaker 2: be involved in those factors. But like you know, Winter meetings,
4:09
Speaker 2: could the Tigers make it the old Winter meetings? Wouldn't
4:11
Speaker 2: that be fun? Be kind of the top of the
4:13
Speaker 2: league that. Yeah, I'm not saying that's gonna happen. I'm
4:15
Speaker 2: just saying like that could be cool. And I think
4:19
Speaker 2: I think the noise league wide is about to really
4:22
Speaker 2: pick up.
4:24
Speaker 1: So speaking to Sodo, we can officially close that chapter.
4:28
Speaker 1: The Tigers in the Sodo fancy world, right, because there
4:32
Speaker 1: wasn't even like a hint of a meeting. So Scott
4:35
Speaker 1: Harris is not going to get a pizza from your
4:37
Speaker 1: boy because there was no leaks. Sources say that they
4:41
Speaker 1: like offered him a contract. So it's if you are
4:44
Speaker 1: officially closed in yet.
4:45
Speaker 2: Not yet, you never know, you know what if what
4:48
Speaker 2: if Scott Boris wants to pit the two highest bidders
4:51
Speaker 2: against each other one last time, he could always leak.
4:54
Speaker 2: There's there's a mystery team that plays near Canada that
4:59
Speaker 2: you know is in on the in on the mix,
5:02
Speaker 2: Like I the Tigers were never in on one Soto.
5:05
Speaker 2: That chapter was never started to begin with. But were
5:08
Speaker 2: the the betting odds on there being a tweet by
5:11
Speaker 2: like a certain leak wide reporter. That's ridiculous. You know
5:16
Speaker 2: that chapter might not be entirely over just yet. It's tough.
5:20
Speaker 2: Everyone knows Tigers.
5:23
Speaker 1: We shall see. And I do want to come back
5:25
Speaker 1: to the Sodo trickle down effect here later because I
5:28
Speaker 1: think that's something that I mean, it literally affects everything
5:31
Speaker 1: we know. Baseball has a problem with stars signing in
5:34
Speaker 1: a we'll call it a timely manner. So all right,
5:38
Speaker 1: so the cleaning up a little bit. Some Tigers news.
5:41
Speaker 1: They agreed to a contract with Ricky Venesco, who you
5:46
Speaker 1: might remember, was he the first trade deadline deal I
5:49
Speaker 1: believe the Tigers made this past year. I think it
5:51
Speaker 1: was before everybody else for cash considerations. And he will
5:57
Speaker 1: make nine hundred and twenty five K should he make
6:00
Speaker 1: the major league or be in the major leagues. He's
6:02
Speaker 1: got a spring training invitation only pitched. I don't have
6:06
Speaker 1: that in front of me, but only pitched, I believe
6:08
Speaker 1: twice two outings. And really more so if you read
6:12
Speaker 1: about it and you kind of look at it, they
6:14
Speaker 1: were tinkering with him from the get go. I would
6:19
Speaker 1: be interested to see kind of what they have him
6:23
Speaker 1: working on in spring training and you know whether it
6:25
Speaker 1: you know, nets and results. He seems pretty enthused if
6:28
Speaker 1: you look at the couple interviews that he did about
6:30
Speaker 1: some of the stuff that they were having him do.
6:32
Speaker 1: So he's deep in the lab right now. Makes sense
6:34
Speaker 1: to UH to bring him along and see what that
6:36
Speaker 1: looks like in the next calendar year. And we have
6:41
Speaker 1: a Bailey Horn waiver claim. He was most recently with
6:45
Speaker 1: the He's actually only played for Chicago or Sox teams
6:49
Speaker 1: I believe in their organizations like Chicago Cubs and White
6:53
Speaker 1: Sox and Boston Red Sox. So now he breaks that
6:56
Speaker 1: trend and he will be at least a part of
6:58
Speaker 1: the Detroit organization. Not great numbers left handed pitcher reliever
7:02
Speaker 1: thirteen earned runs in eighteen innings, gave up five home runs,
7:06
Speaker 1: but he's got he's a lefty, he can throw ninety
7:09
Speaker 1: five on the fastball, and he's got a sweeper that
7:12
Speaker 1: goes into low to mid eighties. So you can imagine
7:15
Speaker 1: why the Tigers were interested in that. So those those
7:18
Speaker 1: are your clean up moves, Cody, where do you want
7:21
Speaker 1: to start on that? Yeah?
7:23
Speaker 2: I don't. Uh, this is why we need some real moves,
7:25
Speaker 2: because I don't know that there's the most scintillating conversation ever.
7:28
Speaker 2: But the nasco interesting that the Tigers gets kind of
7:31
Speaker 2: continue their work with him, probably a sign that you know,
7:34
Speaker 2: as you said, he's enjoyed that he feels good about
7:36
Speaker 2: being in this organization. And for a reminder of just
7:40
Speaker 2: like how much the Tigers tinker with pitchers these days.
7:43
Speaker 2: I had to go back and look this up. I
7:44
Speaker 2: like I remember standing in the clubhouse talking to Ricky,
7:46
Speaker 2: and I was like, wait to see the guy they're
7:48
Speaker 2: they're teaching at cutter. See the guy they're teaching schoobls
7:51
Speaker 2: change up or is he like which you know which
7:55
Speaker 2: which like pitching wizardry instance, was this guy and they
7:59
Speaker 2: are he's tweaked some grips, kind of scrapping the curveball
8:04
Speaker 2: and really trying to hone in on a cutter to playoff.
8:07
Speaker 2: What's a pretty good four seam, Like you said, Venasko
8:10
Speaker 2: only two appearances with the Tigers, didn't allow any runs
8:15
Speaker 2: and was quite good in Toledo a one point six
8:18
Speaker 2: era in seventeen innings after joining Detroit there, So to
8:22
Speaker 2: be able to get him off the forty man and
8:24
Speaker 2: keep him on the in the organization sounds like a
8:27
Speaker 2: nice move, Bailey Horn, Yeah, Like, I look again, guy,
8:33
Speaker 2: you're not throwing a party for right now, but were
8:35
Speaker 2: you're throwing a party for Brendan Hannafee, you know this
8:38
Speaker 2: time last year, who ends up getting a crucial double
8:41
Speaker 2: play to beat the Houston Astros in the playoffs. So, like,
8:44
Speaker 2: let's pay attention to all these guys, because, especially under
8:48
Speaker 2: the current order of the Tigers, they all do kind
8:50
Speaker 2: of matter Horn through sweeper like sixty percent of the
8:54
Speaker 2: time last year, very sweeper heavy. Also has some really
8:57
Speaker 2: good fastball stuff, but has struggled throwing strikes. So I'll
9:01
Speaker 2: be curious, you know, to learn more what kind of
9:03
Speaker 2: mechanical adjustments the Tigers might be making to get him
9:06
Speaker 2: in the strikes on because just with that sweeper profile,
9:09
Speaker 2: if he can get ahead in the count, he actually
9:12
Speaker 2: hasn't missed a ton of bats, at least at a
9:13
Speaker 2: major league level with the sweeper. But you could see
9:16
Speaker 2: a world in which that could be just a kind
9:19
Speaker 2: of the dangerous concoction of stuff. So there's the quick
9:22
Speaker 2: wrap on Bailey Horn. It all makes sense.
9:26
Speaker 1: And to be honest, like you just kind of trust
9:28
Speaker 1: the Tigers judgment when it comes to pitching attributes that
9:32
Speaker 1: they want in their system. Speaking of somebody who has
9:37
Speaker 1: quite a bit of pitching attributes and has been in
9:40
Speaker 1: the system for a couple of years now, that'd be
9:42
Speaker 1: one Jackson job. So I'm not looking for like a
9:44
Speaker 1: deep analysis on Jackson job here, but I'm kind of
9:47
Speaker 1: curious where I just wanted to get on record for
9:52
Speaker 1: like the first time. It's not the new year yet,
9:55
Speaker 1: but you understand what I'm saying, like, going into the
9:57
Speaker 1: new year, I'm kind of where you stand on Joe
10:00
Speaker 1: expectations because we obviously got a taste of him last year.
10:04
Speaker 1: It was a nice feel good story that he was
10:07
Speaker 1: added to the roster. He had, you know, a moment
10:10
Speaker 1: in the in the playoffs that you know didn't necessarily
10:12
Speaker 1: go his way, but it still was kind of cool
10:15
Speaker 1: to see him like your first round pick, you much Maligne,
10:18
Speaker 1: first round pick there for a while, come into a
10:21
Speaker 1: big spot and you obviously still believe in the stuff.
10:25
Speaker 1: He's a guy that there's gonna be like once people
10:27
Speaker 1: start doing like future bets and you know, looking at
10:31
Speaker 1: like he might not have a lot of value initially
10:34
Speaker 1: because he's gonna be one of those early candidates. People
10:36
Speaker 1: are gonna be looking at him for like a Paul
10:39
Speaker 1: Skeins type season because they were the top right handed
10:44
Speaker 1: starters in the miners.
10:45
Speaker 2: Right.
10:46
Speaker 1: So let's let's just go on record here, Cody, where
10:49
Speaker 1: where do you kind of stand on Joe? Because I
10:53
Speaker 1: I kind of think we're we're gonna know a little
10:57
Speaker 1: bit based on where they put him in the pecking
11:00
Speaker 1: order of the rotation, what they kind of expect out
11:02
Speaker 1: of him, and also keep in mind seventy seven sixty
11:06
Speaker 1: four ninety one three seasons. That's innings per year, not
11:10
Speaker 1: a lot of miles on that arm. It's a good
11:13
Speaker 1: thing in one way, something to consider or another.
11:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, the innings thing is actually interesting because you would
11:20
Speaker 2: expect based on that that there's no way Job surpasses
11:23
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty innings next year,
11:26
Speaker 2: which means if he were to be in the big
11:28
Speaker 2: leagues the bulk of the year and healthy, you're going
11:31
Speaker 2: to have to really like limit his starts, or you're
11:34
Speaker 2: gonna have to you know. I'm sure the Tigers would
11:36
Speaker 2: build an extra rest days, but you would have to
11:38
Speaker 2: like consider shutting him down. That's such a low innings threshold,
11:42
Speaker 2: So something to consider. But before we even start worrying
11:46
Speaker 2: about the innings, I think it just is like, is
11:48
Speaker 2: Jackson Job going to begin the year in Detroit or not?
11:51
Speaker 2: And I think there's there's a lot of hype around Job.
11:55
Speaker 2: There's also already been like a tendency to be like, Eh,
11:58
Speaker 2: all right, relax, he's probably gonna start the year in
12:01
Speaker 2: triple A. Whatever. I'm gonna go the opposite route. I've
12:06
Speaker 2: thought about this because I've talked about it, you know,
12:08
Speaker 2: in a couple of recent things I've done, Like, I
12:10
Speaker 2: think Jackson Jobs should be in the opening day rotation.
12:13
Speaker 2: I just will not be convinced that anyone other than
12:16
Speaker 2: Trek Scougle has better stuff than Jackson Job. And maybe
12:21
Speaker 2: he's not completely finished yet, but he's pretty close. The
12:24
Speaker 2: Tigers already put him in the big leagues, even though
12:26
Speaker 2: I know it was in a different role, but that
12:28
Speaker 2: tells you they think he can do this. You can
12:31
Speaker 2: just watch him and be like, no, he can get
12:33
Speaker 2: major league hitters out, and I have a tough time
12:37
Speaker 2: believing he's really going to be challenged appropriately in Triple A. Yeah,
12:41
Speaker 2: be a quieter setting for him to work on sequencing
12:45
Speaker 2: or you know, whatever it is they want him to
12:47
Speaker 2: work on. I think have him learned it in the
12:48
Speaker 2: big leagues, because Jackson Job can be really, really good.
12:51
Speaker 2: He could be an American League Rookie of the Year,
12:55
Speaker 2: top three type guy. He could be your second or
12:59
Speaker 2: third starter in your rotation next season. I don't think
13:03
Speaker 2: the expectation should be limited for Jackson Job. I think
13:06
Speaker 2: the Tigers should hold him to a high standard. I
13:08
Speaker 2: should I think he's at an advanced enough level now
13:12
Speaker 2: where they should push him to do this in the
13:14
Speaker 2: big leagues. I don't know if that's gonna happen, based
13:17
Speaker 2: on their history, the way they like to handle pictures,
13:20
Speaker 2: I could see them slow playing him a little bit.
13:22
Speaker 2: But if he comes out and he's at all effective
13:24
Speaker 2: in spring training, I just don't want to hear that, yeah,
13:28
Speaker 2: we're gonna send him to Triple A because we you know,
13:31
Speaker 2: we want him to refine the curve ball a little
13:33
Speaker 2: a little bit, like, come on, let's let's be past that.
13:37
Speaker 2: The Tigers should be trying to make a push to
13:39
Speaker 2: the playoffs, and I think Jackson job should be a
13:41
Speaker 2: part of that as much as possible.
13:44
Speaker 1: Push to the playoffs, push for a division championship, I
13:47
Speaker 1: think is uh, you know, the like you know, the
13:49
Speaker 1: next step. But you know, I'll say this about Joe, uh,
13:54
Speaker 1: he has a level of experience that you are comfortable
13:57
Speaker 1: with bringing him on and putting him on the post.
14:00
Speaker 1: He's a roster right, so that was last year, and
14:03
Speaker 1: he has obviously the attributes of an elite pitcher.
14:07
Speaker 2: No one's disputing that.
14:09
Speaker 1: So how about we get him with Jake Rogers catching
14:13
Speaker 1: him and Chris better in his every day in his year,
14:17
Speaker 1: every day in a j. Hinch, imparting his wisdom every day.
14:22
Speaker 1: And that's nothing to say about who with the operation
14:24
Speaker 1: in Toledo. I know they pay attention to all these things.
14:26
Speaker 1: I understand that. But you thought he was good enough
14:31
Speaker 1: to do it, then it's gonna be hard to convince
14:33
Speaker 1: me that you don't think he's good enough to do
14:35
Speaker 1: it come late March, early April. And even if you
14:39
Speaker 1: do somewhat like handicap him a little bit where it's
14:43
Speaker 1: like we're gonna max you out about probably four here,
14:46
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, like you you can manage that.
14:49
Speaker 1: But the talent is the talent. And I think for
14:53
Speaker 1: the Rookie of the year stuff, it's gonna he's gonna
14:55
Speaker 1: be a guy that and and with this operation and
14:59
Speaker 1: the way the game is played today, it's gonna be
15:01
Speaker 1: hard to quell some of that Rookie of the year
15:03
Speaker 1: buzz if he has any measure of success early on.
15:06
Speaker 1: So looking forward to see how that goes. All right,
15:13
Speaker 1: let's let's go into some more hypotheticals.
15:16
Speaker 2: Cody.
15:16
Speaker 1: We we've got a couple of names here well that
15:20
Speaker 1: we'll spend some time on that are in Oh, they're
15:24
Speaker 1: both the NL central players actually and not so secretly
15:28
Speaker 1: trying the teams are trying to trade them. So Nolan Aernato,
15:34
Speaker 1: that's the name that's kind of come up a lot recently,
15:38
Speaker 1: and he plays their base. Tigers have a desire to
15:44
Speaker 1: upgrade the corner corners.
15:49
Speaker 2: He's a name.
15:50
Speaker 1: There's a lot that kind of makes a lot of sense.
15:52
Speaker 1: But there's contractors, age, there's performance, and we're gonna try
15:56
Speaker 1: to hash some of that stuff out a little bit.
15:59
Speaker 1: So the base six for everybody. He is going into
16:03
Speaker 1: his age thirty four season, he will make twenty one
16:06
Speaker 1: million dollars age thirty five season, that's twenty twenty six.
16:10
Speaker 1: He'll make sixteen million dollars. His age thirty six season,
16:14
Speaker 1: he will make fifteen million dollars. That's twenty twenty seven.
16:17
Speaker 1: So it's three years.
16:18
Speaker 2: Interesting contract structure. You don't really see that very often.
16:22
Speaker 1: Three years, fifty two million in total. All right, So
16:25
Speaker 1: last year he was a two point five war player.
16:28
Speaker 1: He had two seventy two. He had sixteen home runs
16:30
Speaker 1: and seventy one RBI. It should be noted that those
16:34
Speaker 1: were his lowest totals since twenty nineteen if you take
16:37
Speaker 1: out the twenty twenty season, so as Dan Dickerson would say,
16:42
Speaker 1: we throw that out every time. So like basically lois
16:46
Speaker 1: in a half decade, we'll call it for Nolan there
16:49
Speaker 1: and three ninety four slug in he had ops plus
16:52
Speaker 1: of one oh one. Uh So those are some basic
16:56
Speaker 1: numbers there, and he still can play defense. He among
17:01
Speaker 1: third basemen, he was he led in fielding runs above average,
17:06
Speaker 1: which thirteen, So he still has the glove there. There's
17:09
Speaker 1: some stuff out there about how he could play some
17:11
Speaker 1: first base two. Okay, take that for whatever amount of
17:16
Speaker 1: value you want to take it. But he was below
17:21
Speaker 1: league average and hard hit rate. He was slightly below
17:25
Speaker 1: league average in walk percentage, he was below quite a
17:29
Speaker 1: bit below average in strikeout percentage, and his win probability
17:34
Speaker 1: added at the plate offense only was only point two.
17:38
Speaker 1: All right, so zero point two And he pulls the
17:41
Speaker 1: ball cause I'm like, all right, right handed bat, you
17:43
Speaker 1: got that porch over there and leftick America. He pulls
17:46
Speaker 1: the ball thirty four point five percent of time league
17:48
Speaker 1: average thirty point three. It should be noted, I know
17:51
Speaker 1: I'm throwing a lot of numbers out here. It should
17:53
Speaker 1: be noted he has the same walk percentage. This is
17:56
Speaker 1: just last season. He has the same walk percentage as
17:59
Speaker 1: Bregman and a little bit higher than Keith if you
18:03
Speaker 1: if you want to know, Bregman's bagging average on balls
18:06
Speaker 1: and play last year to sixty four, Nolan's to ninety six.
18:13
Speaker 1: All right, So like there's some similarities and then there's
18:17
Speaker 1: some gaps and Bregman graded out a little bit better
18:23
Speaker 1: in some defensive metrics, not so much in others. Just
18:26
Speaker 1: like any other stat you can pull up a million
18:27
Speaker 1: of them. Once guys better on the guys better here there,
18:30
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. So what you have here is a
18:33
Speaker 1: declining player, obviously he's getting older. But is it salvageable
18:40
Speaker 1: for what the Tigers need? In my opinion is kind
18:42
Speaker 1: of what this comes down to at a cost point,
18:45
Speaker 1: because again we're talking about how the Tigers are trying to.
18:48
Speaker 2: Run their organization.
18:49
Speaker 1: So a lot of numbers I put out there, Cody,
18:54
Speaker 1: when you see this on your X feed, when you
18:58
Speaker 1: are seeing the suttle, but elsewhere about Nolan want to
19:03
Speaker 1: be traded, how it can potentially fit for the Tigers,
19:05
Speaker 1: Like what kind of what.
19:07
Speaker 2: Do you make of that? What do you make of
19:08
Speaker 2: all that? Yeah, this is a little bit more than
19:11
Speaker 2: a hypothetical, all right, So like this is real. The
19:15
Speaker 2: Tigers have crunched the numbers, I assure you, and they
19:19
Speaker 2: are thinking about this, and they are asking themselves the
19:21
Speaker 2: same question. It seems like it's on what I've heard,
19:25
Speaker 2: based on what some other reports that have trickled out,
19:28
Speaker 2: they have convinced themselves there's something too like in Nolan Aarontto.
19:33
Speaker 2: So they're going to be at least interested in this
19:36
Speaker 2: being a real trade conversation. I believe that you threw
19:40
Speaker 2: out a lot of numbers. I think the only one
19:42
Speaker 2: that matters is the bat speed metrics. He ranked in
19:46
Speaker 2: the bottom twenty eighth percentile in bat speed last year.
19:49
Speaker 2: His swing length was in the bottom one percent. Now
19:53
Speaker 2: that's a lot of longer limb power hitters like Aaron
19:56
Speaker 2: Judge is also in the bottom one percent. But that
19:58
Speaker 2: just tells you, like there is some concern his bat
20:01
Speaker 2: speed is declining. He's also dealt with some minor injuries,
20:05
Speaker 2: including some back issues that are built up, especially last year.
20:10
Speaker 2: So the question how much of that is salvagable a
20:13
Speaker 2: good word you've used. The Tigers seem to view him
20:17
Speaker 2: as salvageable, which to me is interesting because I see
20:20
Speaker 2: these metrics and I get a little concerned, Like the
20:25
Speaker 2: contract structure helps. You're paying him less, you know, the
20:28
Speaker 2: next two years, it's only three years versus might if
20:31
Speaker 2: you're gonna make a real run at Bregman, which again,
20:36
Speaker 2: I think the Tigers are looking long and hard at
20:38
Speaker 2: their third base options. And as much as it's been
20:41
Speaker 2: reported that that's not a priority or whatever, I wouldn't
20:44
Speaker 2: rule that out yet. I think they're gonna do something.
20:48
Speaker 2: But Erinado does seem to make a little more sense
20:51
Speaker 2: in Tiger's land, a kind of depreciating asset that maybe
20:55
Speaker 2: they think they can get something more out of if
20:56
Speaker 2: they can get him back to full health, maybe you
20:59
Speaker 2: have some adjustment in mind. Becomes really interesting. But another flaw,
21:03
Speaker 2: like he's a right handed bat. He didn't hit lefties
21:07
Speaker 2: last year at all, six forty six ops. Two years
21:10
Speaker 2: ago he didn't really hit left as well. Now for
21:12
Speaker 2: his career he hits lefties extremely well. The defense, it's
21:15
Speaker 2: still plus, but it's not the all time great defense
21:19
Speaker 2: it was there for a run of years. The first
21:22
Speaker 2: base thing. Supposedly, according to the Athletics Katie Wu, Aeronado
21:26
Speaker 2: is going to be open to playing some first base.
21:28
Speaker 2: Does that matter? I see why that would matter in
21:31
Speaker 2: the Tigers world of wanting to move and manipulate their parts,
21:35
Speaker 2: But like, how often or if you have Nolan Aronado,
21:38
Speaker 2: how much are you gonna really want him to play
21:39
Speaker 2: first base? Like I struggle with that question. Yeah, you
21:42
Speaker 2: may have seen the comparisons on social media of just
21:45
Speaker 2: his numbers versus Matt Vierling's numbers. It doesn't really leave
21:48
Speaker 2: you itching for Nolan Aernado. At the same time, Eronado
21:52
Speaker 2: had like what's considered a down year for him last season,
21:56
Speaker 2: and Fangrafts had him as a three win player. Can
21:59
Speaker 2: you get back to being a four or five win player?
22:02
Speaker 2: Can you get him for eighty cents on the dollar?
22:06
Speaker 2: Can you get the Cardinals to throw in some cash
22:09
Speaker 2: the Rockies are already paying. I believe a small portion
22:13
Speaker 2: of that salary five million next year and five million
22:16
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six. So for as much as there
22:20
Speaker 2: are some glaring cons for noan Ornato, there are also
22:25
Speaker 2: some reasons why I see why the Tigers would be interested.
22:30
Speaker 2: I don't think it's my favorite option personally. But if
22:34
Speaker 2: they were to pull off this deal, like you can't
22:37
Speaker 2: say it wouldn't be highly intriguing.
22:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, So when it comes to a trade, I'm kind
22:45
Speaker 1: of looking at cash. I think has to be like
22:48
Speaker 1: the like two a part of the equation, prospects going
22:53
Speaker 1: back and then cash coming with Nolan.
22:55
Speaker 2: I think that's because think cash should matter because the
22:58
Speaker 2: Tigers have a little payroll. Why can't you payer in otta,
23:00
Speaker 2: OHI av for one year?
23:02
Speaker 1: Well if what because you're trying to uh, you're trying
23:07
Speaker 1: to see if they're desperate enough to do it, which
23:09
Speaker 1: the Cardinals seemed desperate to to like really move on
23:14
Speaker 1: really lower payroll, like you know, why not like that?
23:18
Speaker 1: That's part of the value now now cash and prospects,
23:22
Speaker 1: no cash lets like that can be negotiated, but I
23:25
Speaker 1: feel like that's going to be part of it. It
23:28
Speaker 1: is worth noting Nolan has a no trade class, so
23:32
Speaker 1: like any deal, he's also Boris client, So there's gonna
23:36
Speaker 1: be an up and up on any deal that potentially
23:38
Speaker 1: would happen, Like he would have an idea of his
23:40
Speaker 1: role and the Tigers would have a clear understanding of
23:44
Speaker 1: what he wants another note, he was hitting you know
23:48
Speaker 1: three four, him and gold Schmidt like that experiment ended up,
23:52
Speaker 1: you know, not going that hot for the Cardinals. He
23:56
Speaker 1: only bad at fifty one games last year, fifth or
23:59
Speaker 1: six in the lineup.
23:59
Speaker 2: That's it.
24:00
Speaker 1: So like if he comes to the Tigers, he's probably
24:04
Speaker 1: what batting fifth or six, right, you know, depending on
24:08
Speaker 1: some some matchups.
24:09
Speaker 2: I don't think he's probably about higher than that.
24:12
Speaker 1: Well, like in theory, he would come to a team
24:15
Speaker 1: that if you believe in you know, some development that
24:18
Speaker 1: he is not expected to.
24:19
Speaker 2: Carry the load.
24:21
Speaker 1: Uh, even if he is quote batting higher than that
24:24
Speaker 1: in the lineup, he would not.
24:25
Speaker 2: Be hitting third. I think Nolan r and not was
24:27
Speaker 2: also third.
24:29
Speaker 1: That's a good point. That's a good point. So anyway,
24:32
Speaker 1: like there's there's all these factors here and again, would
24:35
Speaker 1: you rather have Nolan for the next three years at
24:38
Speaker 1: fifty two million? Or spot track? Who has Bregman for
24:42
Speaker 1: a six for one sixty five? Some people go seven,
24:44
Speaker 1: a little bit more money whatever we're we're looking in
24:47
Speaker 1: that range or Bregman.
24:48
Speaker 2: Supposedly he wants more. Supposely he's trying to get like
24:51
Speaker 2: eight two thirty or something crazy I don't think he's
24:53
Speaker 2: going to get that, but.
24:54
Speaker 1: So and also the waiting game, so it like like
24:59
Speaker 1: if you you just need to upgrade, you don't necessarily
25:03
Speaker 1: want to play ball with Bregman and how he wants
25:05
Speaker 1: to go about his free agency, which is of course
25:07
Speaker 1: is right, like this is another option there that has
25:11
Speaker 1: some potential savings. And again there's a there's an argument
25:16
Speaker 1: to be made that you're gonna have a lot more
25:18
Speaker 1: value from Nolan even as he, you know, with age
25:21
Speaker 1: declines a little bit, just based on what you're paying.
25:23
Speaker 1: And again, if the cash kick in comes in, that's
25:26
Speaker 1: a factor. So it feels like a more savvy move
25:34
Speaker 1: than signing Bregman in February. You see what I'm saying,
25:39
Speaker 1: Like there's a that you have some numbers, seems.
25:42
Speaker 2: Like the definition of the calculated risk term. Yeah, that
25:46
Speaker 2: Scott Harrison is so fond of. Now for it to
25:50
Speaker 2: make sense, the Tigers are going to have to know
25:53
Speaker 2: something that we don't that you can't go find on
25:56
Speaker 2: Baseball Savant that would indicate you can still get more
26:01
Speaker 2: out of him at age thirty three, because there's a
26:03
Speaker 2: lot of publicly available data that suggests he's a declining player,
26:08
Speaker 2: So do they do they have something else where they think, well,
26:11
Speaker 2: we can still get two pretty dang good years out
26:13
Speaker 2: of this guy. It's all right. They don't need him
26:15
Speaker 2: to be They don't need him necessarily to be the
26:21
Speaker 2: six seven win player he was a few years ago.
26:24
Speaker 2: Now they need him to be a really good three four,
26:28
Speaker 2: maybe even five win veteran presence. And you could talk
26:32
Speaker 2: yourself into that being possible.
26:36
Speaker 1: The Tigers last year abat two eighty eight on balls
26:40
Speaker 1: and play, all right, the league average is to ninety one.
26:44
Speaker 2: They wins.
26:45
Speaker 1: Probability added at the plate was four point four league
26:48
Speaker 1: average or minus four point four. League average is minus three.
26:51
Speaker 1: They have to upgrade the lineup, obviously, And there's.
26:55
Speaker 2: All right, you're you're getting me right, you guys, stop
26:57
Speaker 2: using batting average and balls and play because it's always
27:00
Speaker 2: going to hover around like to ninety two a little
27:02
Speaker 2: bit more like any sample any team like ever, and
27:05
Speaker 2: it's very valuable. It's not really like that much of
27:07
Speaker 2: a skill unless you're a se pure line drive hitter.
27:09
Speaker 2: So like, if the Tigers can't upgrade their batting average
27:13
Speaker 2: and balls and play like that's not something that's just.
27:15
Speaker 1: Well would you like him to be an above average
27:17
Speaker 1: hitting team in that metric, you know, like.
27:20
Speaker 2: Well it's just luck, though, Like it's just luck.
27:22
Speaker 1: Okay, Well you can make that argument for almost all
27:25
Speaker 1: of these things.
27:25
Speaker 2: And you get some dudes who hit the ball hard,
27:27
Speaker 2: then that helps you. Nolan or Out does not hit
27:29
Speaker 2: the ball hard. Unfortunately, even uh you know, you can
27:32
Speaker 2: go back a few years. His average exit velocity throughout
27:35
Speaker 2: his career has been under ninety miles an hour.
27:38
Speaker 1: What about when probability added?
27:39
Speaker 2: Mind, I like that stat. That's stat we should be
27:42
Speaker 2: using more. It's great stat.
27:43
Speaker 1: So like and and but again Nolan was I look
27:47
Speaker 1: at my notes, he was barely above zero, but he
27:51
Speaker 1: was technically above zero, and so like, there are upgrades
27:56
Speaker 1: that Nolan brings. But I do agree with you in
27:59
Speaker 1: this sense that like, they better have some measurement that
28:03
Speaker 1: we don't have. And also I was gonna say this
28:06
Speaker 1: would be a kind of a nice litmus test of
28:10
Speaker 1: this administration, this coaching staff that like, obviously they brought
28:14
Speaker 1: on veterans, they they but they haven't brought on like
28:17
Speaker 1: a former superstar who like is declining and but still
28:22
Speaker 1: has like real recognition. As we know, the the client
28:27
Speaker 1: is happening, you see what I'm saying, Like, so how
28:29
Speaker 1: they go about doing that? I'm having like Moneyball, David Justice,
28:32
Speaker 1: Billy being in the batting cage, you know, like visions
28:37
Speaker 1: in my head. Whether that's fair or not. I just
28:39
Speaker 1: it just kind of came up, you know what I mean?
28:41
Speaker 2: So, like it's.
28:44
Speaker 1: I would love to see or love to know, even
28:48
Speaker 1: never became public, how deep into this they got if
28:51
Speaker 1: if if they you know, if they don't do it,
28:54
Speaker 1: or if they do do it, like what kind Because
28:57
Speaker 1: also the value that they send over there is I'll
29:00
Speaker 1: be telling about the league's opinion of Nolan as well.
29:03
Speaker 2: So's so let's plug that right now. For our next episode,
29:06
Speaker 2: we're going to great talk about so let's say, trade
29:11
Speaker 2: proposals from you, the loyal viewers slash listeners. So I
29:16
Speaker 2: think a big question in all this, what would it
29:17
Speaker 2: take to get Arnatto even though the Cardinals don't love them, Like,
29:20
Speaker 2: what are you comfortable sending back? So us a couple
29:23
Speaker 2: of ideas. Maybe we'll talk about them on the pod
29:26
Speaker 2: and send us ideas for other trades across the league.
29:28
Speaker 2: We are going to talk Tiger's trade proposals next episode yeah.
29:32
Speaker 1: So you can do so via x if you want.
29:36
Speaker 1: Cody is at Cody Stapenhagen. I am at kieran I
29:39
Speaker 1: Escorse Deeci. Our pod page is at Tiger Territory underscore.
29:44
Speaker 1: If you want to comment on our YouTube channel down
29:48
Speaker 1: below if you're watching, that would also be an easy
29:51
Speaker 1: way to uh for us to see it. But we're everywhere,
29:56
Speaker 1: so we would like to hear it from everywhere. In
29:58
Speaker 1: terms of any again, any ideas, even you know, any
30:04
Speaker 1: loosely constructed ones, we can take them and run if
30:06
Speaker 1: you want. And then also like returns, because the returns
30:09
Speaker 1: is the trickiest part. And I also would be very
30:13
Speaker 1: curious to gauge the fan base because I think the
30:16
Speaker 1: return for these trades will also give us like an
30:19
Speaker 1: indication of kind of how they're feeling about certain guys, right,
30:23
Speaker 1: So I'll be very curious about that because, as we
30:29
Speaker 1: said beginning, it's been relatively quiet, but it's now December
30:33
Speaker 1: and the stove will start to heat up. And if
30:39
Speaker 1: someone jumps the gun on any free agent or trade
30:42
Speaker 1: move before like the one Soto trickle happens, like that's
30:47
Speaker 1: also a very interesting part of this offseason, all right,
30:52
Speaker 1: Cody nice, solid and solid podcasts of don't feel hungover
30:56
Speaker 1: from turkey at all? From Thanksgiving, nice good discussions. Can't
31:00
Speaker 1: believe we're all ready to December. Anything else before we
31:02
Speaker 1: get out of here.
31:03
Speaker 2: No, turkey was really good at Thanksgiving this year. I
31:07
Speaker 2: guess I gotta stop complaining about turkey. Two years in
31:10
Speaker 2: a row, we've had really good turkey here.
31:12
Speaker 1: Yep, I was happy with with mine as well. Had
31:15
Speaker 1: a drama free Thanksgiving if you don't count the second
31:19
Speaker 1: half of the Lions game, but a drama free Thanksgiving.
31:23
Speaker 1: That will probably change moving forward, but we'll enjoy the
31:25
Speaker 1: times when they occur, all right. I want to thank
31:29
Speaker 1: everybody for listening, following, subscribing wherever you get your podcasts, Apple, Spotify,
31:34
Speaker 1: all the rest. Subscribing, watching on YouTube. Hit that notification
31:40
Speaker 1: Bell two helps us out as we grow the show
31:42
Speaker 1: moving into the more crucial part of the off season.
31:45
Speaker 1: We want to be we want to be getting you
31:48
Speaker 1: all the best opinions and insights that we can, and
31:53
Speaker 1: so we really appreciate everybody's another past Thanksgiving, another thankful
31:57
Speaker 1: statement for me. Thankful for all you guys for listening.
32:00
Speaker 1: He's sticking through us through a change I know it's changing.
32:03
Speaker 1: The habit can be hard sometimes, but Cody and I
32:05
Speaker 1: appreciate it. So hope everybody had a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
32:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to December. It's good to be here. It's good
32:11
Speaker 1: to be talking about the Detroit Tigers with you. Also
32:14
Speaker 1: for Cody Stapenhagen, I am Kieren Steckley. Everybody have a
32:18
Speaker 1: great day.