Latest / Financial Survival Network / 2024 Financial Markets Deep Dive with Nick Santiago #5985

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2024 Financial Markets Deep Dive with Nick Santiago #5985 · Financial Survival Network

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You know the central banks they orchestrating rallies off of short squeezes since you know
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early two thousand and nine. You can make a case from the low of
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two thousand and nine when the S and P five hundred traded at sixty sixty
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six on March sixth, that that was an orchestrated, no reversal, massive
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short squeeze. So you know, these guys know that this is the name
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of the game. It can't stop either. There is no other remedy.
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You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network where you get valuable information. You
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and welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your
0:57
o's Carrie lutz Nick. Hey a little while, we've both been on vacation,
1:02
family and all that good stuff. Now the year has started, we're
1:07
hitting the ground running. So we're going to do a basically your insights into
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twenty twenty four bernstlet's juice, just do our standard market rehease. What's the
1:19
market doing today, Yeah, we got a mixed session today. Technology is
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actually getting a bid that's been weak recently, having video trading higher. That's
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up over five hundred dollars. So everybody's talking about that today. AI back
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in the and the main scene of things. But overall, you know,
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since the New year's begun, we've gotten a little bit of a pullback from
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that very very overbought position that we had going into the end of the year.
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And that was a big short squeeze there. And I think that short
1:47
squeeze now has the remedy itself, and you'll start to see the market chop
1:51
around here for a little bit. But ultimately I don't really see anything problematic
1:57
yet, at least for the markets right now. Well, I know they
2:00
say Santa Claus only comes once a year, and we had quite a Santa
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Claus rally, didn't we. I mean almost from the moment they put up
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the Christmas lights. Yes, j Powell decided to put on a Santa suit
2:13
this year. He's a little bit thin, but it worked out. Nonetheless,
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you know, the Powell pivot did the trick, and you know,
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nobody expected that. I didn't expect that myself. I thought he would talk
2:23
hawkish because he really had things in control with the two year treasury yield bawling
2:29
below the Fed funds rate. But you know, I think it was December
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twelfth, December thirteenth when he came out with that decision, and it really
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gave us another big rocket ship boost to the upside. And you know,
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now the markets are just trying to work that off a little bit. We
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have earning season starting up in the next couple of weeks, so that'll be
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pretty important as well. We'll start to get some numbers from some of these
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companies and see how things are truly faired. You know, you never know
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how the market is when it gets you fork like it did off the Powell
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pivot. Yeah, well that power. But we're going to talk more about
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as far as UH sectors. I remember we saw housing stocks hit that new
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high. I think it was December one that hit the all time high.
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All the major housing stocks, whether it's Toll Brothers, Kadi, Lennar,
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right around that same time, within a two to three day time period,
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they all hit that high. And that was kind of the giveaway that somebody
3:29
knew something. Right, that's right. You know, the housing stocks were
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not going down. They were acting really really well. They were moving up.
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And somebody always knows something in this business. It's just not us,
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but somebody always knows something. You know. We have to look at the
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charts and try to find the patterns, and you know that that's how we
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go about our business. But somebody always knows something. And you know it
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would really was. The market moves on surprises, whether it's to the upside
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of the downside. When the market doesn't have something calculated in and you get
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a big move, you know that it was a surprise, and that really
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was shocker to see him lower his his rate out look, after being so
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hawkish for so long, all of a sudden, you know, two weeks
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ago or two weeks prior to that announcement, he's very very hawkish, and
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here he comes in as the dove of all doves, and you know we've
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seen him do this before. He actually did it in December of twenty eighteen,
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and we call the Christmas reversal. I think it was on the twenty
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sixth of December. You know, we're going to lower the Fed funds rate
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back down to zero. We're gonna start a quantitative easy remember that, And
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the market just ramped up for two years. So you know, you just
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got to be aware of how the Fed operates. They jawbone a lot,
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and then when they can actually jaw bone, it seems like they really do
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take action, and that gives them another, you know, another market move
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in a direction of their favor. Yeah. I just find the whole thing
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kind of fascinating because look, historically, five percent interest rates, that's what
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we've had, right, that is the number, and you know, five
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percent mortgages whatever. And now the economy can't even sustain the historic normalized interest
5:19
rates for very long. The economies can't. The economies of the World warre
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just falling to pieces. And I don't think it was something that Powell did
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lightly. I think it's something you had no choice but to do, because
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how many more banks could collapse before something had to happen here? Nick,
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Yeah, absolutely, And we've had an inverted Yolker for well over a year
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now between the two year note and the ten year note, So that's always
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been a great indicator of a recession throughout history. And you know, a
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lot of people are now looking for twenty twenty four to have well, let's
5:56
see if we have a recession this year, so it's certainly a possibility.
6:00
You know, the central banks they orchestrating rallies off of short squeezes since you
6:04
know, early two thousand and nine. You can make a case from the
6:09
low of two thousand and nine when the S and P five hundred traded at
6:13
six six six on March sixth, that that was an orchestrated, no reversal,
6:18
massive short squeeze. So you know, these guys know that this is
6:21
the name of the game. It can't stop either. There is no other
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remedy. You either let the markets go down, then you squeeze them up,
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and you just keep playing this game as long as you can. But
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we've already crossed the rubicon carry with thirty four trillion dollars worth of debt.
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So you know, enjoy the rallies when you get them, I guess,
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and you know you go back to business that way. Yeah. Actually,
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the first time I remember them directly interceding in the markets was nineteen eighty seven.
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The crash of nineteen eighty seven happened on a Friday, and basically on
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Monday, all the markets had seized up except the Kansas City futures market,
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and the FED started massive buying on that market, and all of a sudden,
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everything opened up and jolted ahead, and we saw these huge advances.
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And from that point on, the market's never been allowed to actually engage in
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its cleansing action. Arguably, we had that recession during Obama and they let
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the market go down, but only to a certain point, and then they
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were back in there manipulating the hell out of it. That's right. And
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you know there's an old wivestyle out there that Ronald Reagan signed an executive order
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after the eighty seven crash and created a working team to never let the markets,
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you know, fall that much. Now, we don't know how true
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that is, if it's really something, but I believe they did do a
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working group, and they do have a working group out there. But you
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know, you don't even have to follow that so much. You just follow
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really what the FED is going to do, and you follow charts, and
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all the tr rules still work as good as they've ever worked. And this
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has been going on for years and years, and that's why I used them
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and I tell everybody just learn the charts. You know, if you're not
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going to always nail it to the day or pinpoint things perfectly, sometimes you
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do, but you know you'll have a good, good understanding of how the
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markets work and how they actually move, especially when you get all this rhetoric
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coming out of you know, central bankers almost on a daily basis. Hey,
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that was the birth of the good old PPT, the Plunge Protection Team.
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That's right. I haven't seen anybody make any mention of the PPT for
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years now because it's so normalized that, you know, I don't want to
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say it's transparent, but it's transparently obvious. That's right. It has.
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And that's like everything, Kerry. You know, when they implement something,
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if they implemented long enough, it just becomes normalized, like you just said,
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And that that's exactly where we are, where people don't even mention the
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PPT, the Pluet Protection Team any longer. All right, quickly, Energy
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and precious metals, where where is it? Where did we start the year
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at? Where is it now? Well? Prude oil, Actually we'll start
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with energy and oil. Prude oil actually tried to make a move and you
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know, oil got to around seventy five dollars a barrel. It just really
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can't get anything going. I actually own the USO at the dead low,
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so I'm still in the money there, but I have a breaking and stop
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on my second half position. It's been a tough trading. Like I said,
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k if we take out the lows that were made, you know,
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not that long ago in oil, we're going to see oil go down to
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fifty five dollars a barrel. So I know that's hard to believe with all
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the conflicts going on around in the world, but even today we had Saudi
9:52
Arabia basically come out and say that they're going to lower oil prices around the
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globe. And just right before the holidays, we had an OPEC meeting where
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these same guys wanted to do production cuts. So they speak out of both
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sides of their mouth. They've actually learned from the Federal Reserve. They've learned
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the playbook from the master. They learn learn the faster as of double speak.
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They have, they really have, and they are good at it.
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So now all of a sudden, today the headline is that, you know,
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Saudi Arabia is gonna lower oil prices around the world. You just can't
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make this stuff up, you know, And this is why, you know,
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I always tell my traders, I said, hey, we already made
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money on this trade, and take app off the table and we just sit
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with the second half at breaking with a break even stop and play with the
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houses money. Because it just gets to be, you know, one day
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to the next, you just get so much rhetoric from these different groups.
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Okay, so oil, what's oil? We've got energy. That gas is
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still trading at the lows. Yeah, that gas had a good little run.
10:56
It tried to make a run at three. Now it's back off again.
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It's been a lot of whipsawce. So that tells me probably somewhat of
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a manipulated market here for nack gas. But that's that's with everything. So
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you know, after you have a seventy eight month run up, you're going
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to get a pullback of some sort. I think that pullback has already occurred.
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I'm looking for a bottom in that gas. I pulled my nack gas
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trade off the table a while ago again with a break even stop and made
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a little profit there. But I'm looking to get back in it. I
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do think it's headed higher. I think it's still the energy that the world
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needs, but you know, supposedly these controllers don't believe it. So well,
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we'll see how it plays out. But the chart is going to be
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important for that gas. But today it's having to sell off, and you
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know, it's been very volatile, and that's the problem with it. You
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know, you have five percent moves almost on a daily basis. O good,
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so and then all right, so what about bitcoin and and gold and
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silver? All right, we'll go to bitcoin next because everybody's waiting for this
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approval of a spot bitcoin ETF. I think that's gonna help a little bit.
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I don't think. I think the move in bitcoin has probably been made
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for the most part, or it's factored into the cake already with the big
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run up that it's had into these spot bitcoin ETFs. If these things don't
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get approved, I mean bitcoin is going to sink like a ship. So
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that's that's where we are. You know, I don't know what's going to
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happen. Honestly, it's in the SEC's court. The court's kicked it back
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to the SEC. So we'll see what happens here as we go forward.
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But you know, it's very very important that they get that approval. If
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they don't get that approval, I mean, it could be you know,
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the end of bitcoin as we know it. That will be interesting to see.
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And yeah, today bitcoin crossed forty five thousand, and it looks like
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the market seems to think these ETFs are going to be a fade a complate.
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But we will see. You know, one thing I've learned is never
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count on the government or the courts to bail you out or to provide you
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with a windfall. If you get one anyway, that's okay, but don't
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think they're going to save you. Hey, so precious metals, We're still
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over two thousand in gold, but taking a little bit of a hit this
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week. Yeah, gold had a great run and it's been flirting with that
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breakout Kerry. You know, there's a big trend line going on a monthly
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chart of gold futures and we have not been able to close above there,
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and that's a real, real big problem at the moment. Now, eventually
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I believe it's going to close above there and go a lot lot higher.
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But in in their term, we're doing a lot of backing and fillings,
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so you still got to be careful with gold here. I love it longer
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term and the short run. You know, I'm just sitting and waiting to
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trade levels. I haven't done anything really in the space because it just hasn't
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given me a confirmation of a breakout, and it might trade a little bit
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lower in the near term. So I don't know what to do here.
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When I don't know, I don't do and I just sit back and wait.
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But you know, if gold goes into a real correction type move now,
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we could see a trade down to the mid to high sixteen hundergandle which
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I believe is a golden goose buying opportunity, and I would be all over
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at that stage of the game. No guarantees it's going to get down that
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far. But you know, again, it has not broken out, and
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I would not chase it right now. And of course silver has like not
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participated at all here. Yeah, silver is lagging gold right now. And
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we've seen, you know, last year or the year before, we've seen
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silver take leadership. This time around, it's legging. It is not keeping
14:43
up with gold, So keep an eye on that. I love the silver
14:46
formation though, what it's doing a lot of traders are looking at silver saying,
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ah, you know, it's not going to make a move, But
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I think silver has got to pull back in its cards here, and that's
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going to be a setup to get long and a level I I really like,
15:00
and I'm going to give it to you guys here. I give it
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to my members over the weekend is nineteen dollars on silver futures. It might
15:05
be a slight pierce, you know, maybe eighteen eighty, eighteen seventy five,
15:11
but if you get silver down in nineteen, I will be loading the
15:13
boat once more. And I already got a boatloaded the stuff Kerry, so
15:18
I will be loading up once again around that level. And I think that's
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if you missed it at seventeen forty when I gave the call there in September
15:26
of twenty twenty two, this is your chance to get into silver. You
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know. Nineteen bucks is the next load up phase. Okay, all right,
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sounds good. Now let's talk about twenty twenty four and beyond. You
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know, I always think about what I'm thinking about the future. I always
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think about what Eisenhower said when he was president, and he said something the
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effect of things are more like they are now than they've ever been before.
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Well, I'm gonna stick with that, saying myself, they really are.
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And and I know a lot of people are going into the new year thinking
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we're gonna have a crash, and you know, I'm not in that camp.
16:11
I think the market will chop around. You have an election year this
16:15
year, so you know you're gonna get some volatility just done on that basis
16:18
I would expect. But overall, what I'm seeing for the year is that
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this market is just gonna be a chopping grind and if you don't, you're
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gonna have to watch chart patterns. You're gonna have to be a chartist.
16:30
And again, if the central banks do come out and do rate cuts,
16:33
that's always a positive and markets can go higher. So I'm not an uber
16:38
bear this year at all. I think that the Fed is still driving the
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ship, and there Jay Powell is still in charge, sitting at the captain's
16:47
seat right now. All right, so gold, you what are your feelings
16:52
about gold for the year. Well, I really think that gold right now
16:56
is a little bit of a tough trade. If we across that twenty one
17:00
hundred, and we do it on a monthly closing basis, goals off to
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the races. If we stay underneath that twenty one hundred, we could go
17:07
back as low as sixteen seventy five, sixteen eighty, and that would be
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the level to get in, and I mean get in for the long haul.
17:17
Get in and don't look to get out for years to come. That's
17:19
my take on it, because when gold does break out, we're going to
17:22
see it probably go twenty eight twenty nine hundred, that's what the symmetry of
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the pattern shows. That's where we would go, maybe even test three thousand.
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I'm not in the camp that I hear so many people say, goals
17:33
going to ten twenty thirty thousand. I don't see that, but you know
17:37
it moved to three thousand. Move to twenty eight hundred. Twenty nine hundred
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certainly is possible. But you got to cross that twenty one hundred level on
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a monthly closing basis. You do that, that's where we're headed and we'll
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probably get there pretty quickly. Good. So as far as stocks go,
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so, like you said, it's going to be a grind. Any sectors
17:59
you see that are probably better than others. Yeah. So right now you've
18:06
had a big, big tech run techniques to correct itself, so you kind
18:10
of stay away from that for the first half of the year. There will
18:12
be tech stocks, maybe some certain names that will do better than others in
18:18
the near term, but for the whole you stay away from tech at least
18:22
until you know, late April or even even into June perhaps, and then
18:27
you start to look at tech. Tech could be a second half runner,
18:32
but the first half, Tech's got to work off that ridiculous gain that it
18:36
had last year. I mean, the Nasdaq was up forty four percent,
18:38
so you got to work that off. You don't look at technologies, you
18:41
know, you look at now. You look at companies that were beaten down
18:45
last year, believe it or not. I like Bristol Myers right that stock
18:49
was eighty closed down that round fifty dollars last year. That's something I'm in
18:53
call options with. I'm looking to be a buyer of it. You look
18:57
at other stocks, even Walgreens, which I don't like the company at all.
19:02
They just cut their dividend. Stock looks horrible, but it's a dog
19:04
of the Dow. So you look at something like that. I also like
19:08
a lot of the proctors and Kimberley Clarks. I think those could firm up.
19:12
They're not there right now, but that's a group or an area.
19:15
The consumer goods names that I would look at as well. They need to
19:19
play some ketchup and then you could look at small caps after a pullback of
19:23
some sort, but they add too big of a run into the end of
19:26
the year, so I would stay away from them until they give us a
19:30
really good level and they you know, we could see like a forty thirty
19:33
to fifty percent retrace before that occurs, So you know, you look for
19:37
patterns set ups now. But I would void tech for the first half of
19:41
the year for the most part. Hey, Walgreens going back to that at
19:45
a high yield, it hasn't been doing well and then they cut it,
19:51
which I guess was widely anticipated. Now it's down to a four percent yield,
19:56
and I guess the stocks kind of finding its way. Huh. Yeah,
20:02
it's trying to find a bottom. I don't like the company at all.
20:04
I think it's it's horribly run. I think chart has been bearish for
20:08
years and years. But you know, you got a dog of a Dow
20:11
theory there, right, Dogs in a Dow usually play out. At least
20:15
they're you know, something that could could catch up and do a little bit
20:18
better. And you know, just like the Intel was last year, right,
20:22
Intel was a dog of the Dow last year. Intel had a really
20:25
good run in recently, so you know again in twenty twenty three. So
20:30
you look for things like that the first the first half of the first few
20:34
months of this year. You know, I wouldn't be putting money to work
20:37
in these five flying tech names. I think that should be avoid at all
20:41
costs. And again, you know, sometimes they defy gravity and they go
20:45
higher than anybody expects, but I would never chase them up here after the
20:49
run that we've seen like last year. Oh good, So all right,
20:56
so we talked about housing, But what do you see about housing for the
21:00
I mean, you're because we do have this shortage of housing all right now.
21:04
Obviously, all you need to cure a shortage of housing is a lot
21:07
of people looking to sell, and more people looking to sell than to buy.
21:12
But this looks like it's almost a systemic issue here. Well, we
21:18
got to remember, Kerry, we had a lot of big, big firms
21:22
out there, whether it was subsidiaries of Blackstone or black Rock. They've all
21:27
bought, you know, houses. I can't tell you how many people I
21:30
know that sold their home and are renting from the same people that they sold
21:36
the house to. It's incredible phenomenon. We've never seen this in our lifetime.
21:41
So you know, that has taken a lot of supply off the market,
21:45
and when you don't have supply, prices stay. I so I'm not
21:48
looking for any dramatic drop in housing unless interest rate and really go through the
21:52
roof, and interest rates went from basically nothing to five percent and the mortgage
21:59
rates went up to eight percent on moston a housing price is still held up.
22:03
So you know, right now it's all about supplying demand and there's very
22:07
very little supply out there. So you know, I think housing can pull
22:10
in a little bit, but I don't see it going down significantly, all
22:15
right, So so housing is more of the same, like we kind of
22:19
said there, yep is, and I think that's how it's going to be
22:23
this year. You'll get some pullbacks like always in the housing stocks, but
22:27
you know, keeping one companies like Lenard that's really probably the tell of what
22:33
housing does overall. I think that's the most important. That's like the JP
22:37
Morgan of the housing stocks. So watch that one. Stocks still holding up
22:41
really well right now? Yeah, yeah, which is like exactly what you
22:45
wouldn't think. But hey, I guess it all goes back to the Powell
22:48
pivot. So originally Powell said three interest rate cuts, the market turned that
22:55
into six. How many cuts do you think we're gonna get for the coming
22:59
year? Will we get? I think if we do get cuts, it'll
23:03
just be two. I don't even think we're going to get three because you
23:07
have wars going on. Wars are inflationary, so how you know? Everythinks
23:11
the Fed is really stupid because they play dumb. But these guys are not
23:15
stupid. They're they're very smart. They have a big team over there,
23:19
NBA's PhDs, mathematicians, statisticians. I've said this a million times. They're
23:26
not stupid. They know that interest rates are not going down that much,
23:30
even though regardless of what they do, there's a four under the ten year
23:33
Treasury note yield, so you know where that could it go? Three seven,
23:37
three point five percent? That's it. It's not going down any lower
23:41
than that. And if you get any invasion of Taiwan, China going into
23:45
Taiwan or something along those lines. Now you've got supply chain disruptions. That's
23:49
as inflation area as it gets, so they have to be aware of this.
23:55
I just don't really see how they're gonna cut rates. I'm they give
24:00
them two rate cuts because they said they're gonna do three, and the market's
24:03
looking for more. But the market's always greedy, right, The market's always
24:07
looking for way more than what they they are going to get. Right.
24:11
The market's always like it's like a dog begging for a treat, you know,
24:15
So you have to think of it like that, right when you walk
24:17
in a dog, a dog always looking for a treat. They'll stop and
24:19
give you the paw and all of that stuff. You might even roll around.
24:22
Well, that's what the market is. The market's like a dog looking
24:26
for a treat. They're always looking for free money. So I just don't
24:29
see how it's going to happen. If China does go into Taiwan. Hey
24:33
the ballgame changes and everybody better be aware of that. Yeah, I personally
24:37
don't think it's going to happen because the CCP is in real trouble right now.
24:45
Crisis of leadership ZE looks like he's you know, not long for the
24:51
party. If he does manage to hold on, the problem is, in
24:56
order for them to invade Taiwan, he's got to a point somebody the head
25:00
of the military, all the all the branches in China. That person then
25:07
becomes the most powerful person in China, and that could well be what's held
25:12
it back. Plus, it is a question about can they really win,
25:17
right, Well, I think they could win. I think that that would
25:21
be a problem, the same way I think Russia could win Ukraine. I
25:23
don't think that's a problem either. The problem is, right, at what
25:29
cost does it come? And that's that's what they they're up against. But
25:33
basically we get news reports saying that President she has already told President Biden that
25:37
at some point he is going into Taiwan this year, So, you know,
25:41
is that just more rhetoric. Will they do it? You know,
25:45
it remains to be seen. I don't know that stuff. I don't know
25:47
if they will or they won't. But what I will say, if they
25:49
do, watch for inflation. There's no way to counter to that. Yeah.
25:56
Yeah, well, probably a huge mistake to go in there, But
26:02
leaders have done things when they're desperate before and that have surprised the world.
26:07
So hey, it's just the tofu dreg world economy here at work. That's
26:14
all we're gonna call it. All right, what about wars? More wars
26:18
on the way more? Because we're talking about wars. What's happening with the
26:23
wars that are going on now? And what can we look forward to?
26:29
Yeah, more wars are on the way for the next six, seven,
26:32
eight years. Who knows. It's the war cycles are all in place now.
26:37
I mean they all have kicked into gear, you know, so you're
26:41
going to see conflicts continue twenty twenty four. You know, hopefully we can
26:45
avoid some of it, maybe even going to wind down in Russia and Ukraine,
26:49
that's a possibility, but others are going to flare up. It's not
26:52
going to end. You could even start to see you know, with the
26:56
election, you could even start to see a minor civil a civil war here
27:02
in the US. I mean, you know, all of these things are
27:04
in play right now. I would I'd be very very much aware of war
27:10
sticking around for the next several years. All right. So, yeah,
27:14
you even had Venezuela said they were going to go into Guyana and take their
27:18
oil fields. Right, yeah, that's right, that's right. And then
27:22
you know, watch another you know, people aren't realized, but India has
27:25
been the hottest economy in the world. If they have wounds with Pakistan,
27:29
that's a problem as well, so keep an eye on that as well.
27:33
I mean, but you yeah, the perfect example Venezuela. You know,
27:37
who would have expected that? Nobody expected either that? Right, that's crazy,
27:41
right it is. And we're in a crazy time, Carrie. This
27:45
is an upside down world and all of these things are not going away anytime
27:51
soon. So true, so so true. So we got like interesting times
27:56
ahead, that's for sure, right, without a doubt. And it's the
28:00
chaos is going to continue we are, you know, and we haven't even
28:06
spoken about the election yet. That's that could be chaos as well. Yeah,
28:10
well it seems like it's getting off out of good foot there. Huh
28:12
oh yeah, oh yeah, we're we're we're we are looking at you know,
28:19
I like to call it the actors, right, we're looking at all.
28:22
I think all these politicians are actors. In fact, I think they
28:25
all have Actors Guild cards. So uh, you know, we'll we'll see
28:29
how what kind of show they put on for us. Yeah, well it's
28:33
it's definitely going to be interesting, isn't it. It's gonna be more than
28:37
interesting. This is this is one for the ages. Nothing's going to change,
28:42
doesn't matter who gets really gets in. They're all kind of the same,
28:45
right, But you know the show is just going to be, you
28:51
know, outstanding. It will out do the Hamilton U and everybody liked the
28:55
New York City all right, all right, well that is it? Or
29:00
today, make sure you go over to Nick site in the Mooneystocks dot com.
29:04
See you has beating the averages for decades and we'll see if his prophecies
29:11
for the coming year are accurate like they have been in the past. If
29:15
you've got a question for Nick myself, email address Klafcarrie LUTs dot com.
29:21
Make sure you write your comments in the YouTube channel below. If you're watching
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this on YouTube and like, share and subscribe and all that good stuff.
29:30
Nick, we'll talk to you on Wednesday. Thanks first stopping by, Thank
29:33
you Carrie to see you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
29:38
Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
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