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The AI Giant That Just Knocked Nvidia Off Its Throne. · The Curve

• 0:00
  We did our official launch for the Curve Investing Club.
• 0:04
  This is something that if you've been listening to the curve for a while or following the brand,
• 0:09
  you probably know this is something we've been building and something that we've been
• 0:12
  really trying to make sure we get right because you know, you can join in a
• 0:17
  Vesting Club with like some random people and maybe that's what you're looking for but we were
• 0:22
  kind of like hold on a second. We've got all these amazingly smart intelligent women who want to
• 0:28
  invest and have like the different perspectives on what and why they're investing in things.
• 0:33
  If we came together and shared all those ideas like how amazing would that be and so yeah,
• 0:38
  the Curve Investing Club is like it's pretty special and we're really proud of it and you can
• 0:42
  officially join. The whole reason we're doing the club is for everyone to get together,
• 0:47
  share ideas, talk about what's going on in the investing world as well as having myself
• 0:52
  injecting a bit of an expert lens so it really is the most supportive and inclusive club and we
• 0:58
  know that in the finance industry this information has been get kept for so long so we're here to
• 1:04
  break it down. This club is very much for everyone and there is no experience needed.
• 1:10
  Yeah and if you want to find out more details or join the club, become a member,
• 1:14
  you can find all of those details in the podcast show notes.
• 1:16
  We have such a juicy Curve Weekly this week. There has been a lot going on in the stock market
• 1:26
  in particular. One of the biggest stocks on the US stock market took a tumble and we're going
• 1:31
  to explain why and what you can do or not do. We're also going to talk about Australian inflation
• 1:39
  and how inflation is so important and also how that relates to keeping money in the bank.
• 1:44
  And we're also going to talk about LVMH which is another stock that we love. It's had a bit of
• 1:48
  a tough time but we're going to talk about whether we think this is permanent or just temporary
• 1:55
  and then also a little update on tech talk because I think every week now we're going to have to
• 1:59
  update you on tech talk because it's still a work in progress of who's going to own that going forward.
• 2:04
  Where are you at the moment, Sof? I'm in sunny Hawkes Bay. My god daughter lives down here
• 2:15
  and one of my best friends from school. I'm working remotely and I must say it's really making me
• 2:19
  think about the good old life in New Zealand. It's so lovely to be in nature and to hear the birds
• 2:27
  and the bees and you know it's gorgeous but I must say like when all the Palava went down
• 2:33
  this week with everything in the AI space and all I wanted to speak to you and it made me think
• 2:38
  thank God for our investing club because and we'll get to what happened for anyone that's kind of
• 2:44
  like what are you talking about in a second but if you were asleep for the last week and you woke
• 2:49
  up and you're like what's happened because it looks like nothing's happened really. But I was going
• 2:53
  to say to be fair if you aren't super like across what happens in the news particularly in the stock
• 2:58
  market or business space which a lot of people aren't because there's like too much admin to
• 3:03
  read shitloads of newspapers or online stuff they might not have heard of it and it's totally fine
• 3:08
  if you don't know what we're talking about but basically we got all these messages from people
• 3:12
  who had seen stuff in the news online and I actually want to read a couple of them out because
• 3:18
  it made me think this is so awesome that this kind of thing happens this might sound really like
• 3:24
  narcissistic but the people thought to come to the curve they wanted to know what you had to say
• 3:29
  about what was going on and then everyone in the club was talking about and like sharing with
• 3:34
  them or not they were buying or selling or what was happening it was cool and for those of you who
• 3:38
  don't know what we're talking about it does rhyme with climedia it does it's a very good
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  rhyme actually no but we got these messages from people and like one of them she sent us
• 3:56
  oh my god there's so many actually heaps of people oh that's one high ladies heaps of
• 4:01
  exclamation marks can you do a bit of a deep dive on the potty or in the club talking about deep
• 4:06
  sec and the release of that and for anyone listening who you don't know what that is we'll get
• 4:10
  to it in a second and the absolute plunge that was navidia and other AI stocks and how this is
• 4:16
  shaken up the market it would be super interesting to hear your take and I thought shit yes
• 4:22
  this is great that it's starting to catch on because I thought the same thing I was like what
• 4:27
  the hell is happening I need a breakdown but I also kind of like do I want to buy stocks
• 4:33
  yeah and that's why the club is so good it's like you can go there get the information talk to
• 4:39
  others find out whatever analysis doing and then decide what to do whether that's absolutely
• 4:44
  nothing buy more sell so with that today the date that this comes out is our official launch for
• 4:50
  the club so the event will be probably happening maybe now but for anyone listening that would like
• 4:58
  to join the investing club you're officially welcomed you are welcome yeah we're gonna put a link
• 5:03
  in the polka show notes where you can get an annual membership and join because this is such a good
• 5:08
  example when it was like amazing to have access to heaps of investors and what their insights were
• 5:14
  and what they were doing because it can be kind of lonely investing when you don't have people to
• 5:18
  talk to about it if you're making a big decision and you have no idea what other people are doing
• 5:23
  it's just nice to have strength in numbers you know totally and people that are in the same boat
• 5:28
  literally or you know like there people that have invested in it are asking the same questions as
• 5:34
  then there's me in there giving my two cents yeah it's really cool to see it kind of have a
• 5:39
  life of its own and everyone's talking and chatting about what's going on in stock market it's quite
• 5:44
  quite incredible incredible to see now let's get into it because I would really like to speak in more
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  detail about what's happened in the last week I must say when you said you might have missed it
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  because no basically nothing's happened I was like what what do you mean I thought that something
• 6:00
  happened maybe I've obviously welcome to the stock market obviously missed something
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  but yes there is a new AI player in town and this has led to the AI darling stock the kind of
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  poster child the video in the US have its biggest loss ever which is actually the biggest loss
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  in US stock market history really so it fell 17% in one day which was 600 billion dollars
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  of its market cap so the size of its size of the company 600 billion dollars was wiped away
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  in one day so Navidia is one of the biggest companies in the world well it's the biggest
• 6:42
  company that you can invest in that's like a publicly listed company so in the US stock market it was
• 6:48
  for you know the last probably particularly two years it started to become a way more
• 6:53
  common name before you first talked about it which maybe was like a year ago I'd never heard of it
• 6:58
  but everyone that's super into investing and knows what's going on would have been across
• 7:03
  this for years and years because it's been growing exponentially hasn't it it's been the top
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  performing stock in the S&P 500 for the past five years 10 years 15 years and 20 years
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  holy moly guacca moly that's enormous so it's the best performing public stock in 20 years
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  yeah on the US stock market wow yeah and so let's just quickly explain what the company does
• 7:32
  and why they've had such an enormous boom so they produce chips so kind of see we can ducted
• 7:39
  chips those little kind of what do you call them as little they look like little trays almost
• 7:43
  like an SD card or something right yeah kind of yeah but bigger but yeah they produce those and
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  they've been instrumental in powering this movement to AI so they're super super advanced chips
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  so therefore they can they can power this move they've had to AI and when chat GPT blew up
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  everyone was like oh my gosh because they were powered by Navidia chips and so it was like oh gosh
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  so a lot of companies in the AI space currently use Navidia chips and so this is why
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  this company has been the poster child or the darling stock for the AI space for for a long time
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  with this Chinese company deepseek coming online and creating this massive massive disruption
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  the reason there's a fuss of the reason people are getting all kind of up and arms and selling
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  Navidia stock is that deepseek it is unveiled a language learning model which is essentially AI
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  that some are saying is better than chat GPT and that's one part of it the other part is that
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  it is 27 times more powerful than chat GPT and costs a fraction of the price to power so
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  something that can be delivered in a much cheaper and more efficient powerful way no matter what
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  the product is is game changing so if you had a player let's say let's use Netflix as an example
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  if you had a player that came out and was like look we're going to give you Netflix for a dollar
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  a month and we have got 27 times the amount of content that Netflix has the quality is the same
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  everything's the same of course you talk to Netflix so this is essentially what's happening with
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  deepseek and chat GPT and this is why you run squery so with Navidia and deepseek does deepseek
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  not need Navidia's products that's what they're claiming they're claiming that they've done it without
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  these specialized chips which means Navidia's kind of entire business model could be
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  up in arms or you know big big questionable now though as the weeks unfolded
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  apparently they have been using the video chips and there's kind of you know this is whole
• 10:00
  yeah so it's it's evolving and probably when this podcast comes out there be more discussions
• 10:05
  around it but all this is happening and I was sitting here thinking I actually think this is
• 10:10
  going to be a real positive for the AI space yes it's hitting a video share price but I think at the
• 10:17
  end of the day it will just get more and more people on board with using AI will become more and
• 10:23
  more accessible and we're just going to see this AI boom continue for many many many more years
• 10:30
  the way to get around this though is because I don't know if there's going to be another deepseek
• 10:34
  coming out that's going to just rubs or you know have even even cheaper way of doing it and even
• 10:40
  more powerful I mean there will be right there's so many tech geniuses in the world it's evolving
• 10:44
  it's changes every day like the tech industry is honestly innovating all the time it's so hard to
• 10:50
  keep up with sometimes but I think the best way to mitigate this is to invest in AI ETFs
• 10:55
  because then you're riding the wave but you're not having to pick the best surfer I mean I kind
• 11:00
  of have yeah I'm not going to be able to pick the best surfer but what are your thoughts on
• 11:06
  when the stock took a dive what did you think were you like oh buying opportunity or were your
• 11:13
  thoughts yeah in the videos if you see how you do I was like buying opportunity me too I put
• 11:20
  money in I did you because I did I my day got away on me and I didn't and I was pretty pissed off
• 11:27
  and then about 10% the next day oh maybe I missed that wait what day did this happen
• 11:34
  so I was I was down 17 and then it bounced back 10 so if you've been on to it and invested I mean
• 11:41
  we're not telling you the time the market hold on wait but if you've been on to it you would have
• 11:44
  made an instant 10% return in one day what date was this I want to see if I missed it it was quite
• 11:49
  funny if I did it found went from $142 down to about $117 yeah and then it went back up to about
• 11:57
  $128 so I got it at a hundred and twenty one it's 124 so you're making money I've got two percent
• 12:03
  increase yeah nice oh damn so it went even lower than that do you know what I'm still proud of
• 12:08
  myself because I was like I'm so massively believing this I put a thousand USD and because I had
• 12:15
  that earmarked to invest anyway and I was like do you know what I'm just going to put it straight
• 12:19
  into the video and last time it was at that price was October last year so if you were buying
• 12:24
  the video in October last year you should be buying it now I like that and if you own the S&P 500
• 12:31
  you're already riding this way if you're already buying it so you didn't invest in it that's
• 12:35
  so interesting I would have thought you would have I just honestly I think I probably had about 10
• 12:38
  meetings that day and didn't do yeah but I'm like you know what I was buying it back in October so
• 12:46
  I'm getting that price anyway yeah true with your investing consistently and regularly you're getting
• 12:51
  those prices and you're you're taking advantage of those movements so I mean it's still
• 12:55
  but it's still low right like it's still much lower than what it was so actually even if you
• 13:00
  still wanted to buy now yours it's still low compared to what it was yeah this is the stock market
• 13:05
  jumping around yes but the CEO the founder of NVIDIA lost 20 billion dollars in one day imagine
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  like here I am being like oh no my stocks down 17% like imagine your fortune
• 13:19
  of being wiped by 20 billion dollars in one day but you always say it doesn't count until you've
• 13:27
  you know taken your money out so he hasn't actually lost 20 billion no no if he sold today
• 13:34
  well last week he would have but yes I know it's but just on paper it would be quite like oh
• 13:39
  oh my gosh oh my gosh if we think about NVIDIA's earnings so their profit their profit has gone
• 13:46
  from four billion dollars two years ago to 63 billion last year wow imagine the growth of that
• 13:56
  business to see your profits go from four billion to 63 billion in terms and wonder how many staff
• 14:01
  they had to add for that I know I'm just like your your HR would be hiring someone every day
• 14:07
  HR would need HR yeah oh my god that would be so intense I think the the main thing here is
• 14:15
  and the biggest takeaway beyond just NVIDIA or deep seek because there might be people listening
• 14:21
  who are really against AI and they're like hmm hating it don't want to be a part of it I was
• 14:26
  listening to I can't remember what podcast it was but they were talking about how we've moved
• 14:31
  from the industrial age to the digital age and everyone knows that but what that actually
• 14:36
  means in terms of what AI is doing and how it's going to impact like for future generations and
• 14:43
  for the next few hundred years like it's not just something that's like coming and going and I
• 14:47
  think that you don't necessarily have to use it but understanding what's happening and being a
• 14:53
  little bit more accepting of the fact that like you hating on it isn't necessarily going to make it
• 14:57
  go away just like spending some time understanding what it means what kinds of companies are going to
• 15:03
  be I don't know how to explain it I think normally I'm a real like adopter with everything whether
• 15:08
  it's like Facebook Instagram I was like the last of all my friends to do it and it did take
• 15:14
  the ages to use chat GBT like I didn't use it for so long but what we're seeing is such an
• 15:21
  anomaly and such enormous invention like you're saying basically for the first time in 20 years
• 15:28
  this is the biggest you know surge of public businesses we've seen in a particular sector like
• 15:34
  that's enormous so just like spending some time listening to podcasts or learning about it more
• 15:40
  we're going to talk or do a whole like month deep dive on AI in the club so if you're feeling like
• 15:45
  you do want to know more we'll be doing that sometimes soon I think is that right Vic yeah no we will
• 15:49
  be yeah like this AI uses a lot of energy which if isn't powered by renewables means that we need
• 15:58
  more oil and gas if there is flow on effects that people may not like or the fact that it might
• 16:04
  impacts certain people's jobs and therefore you know it's taking over that side of things there is
• 16:09
  elements of it but I agree I think it's leaning in not out and learning more and being educators
• 16:15
  about AI it's possibilities where it's going and therefore discovering you know what are the good
• 16:22
  AI companies or what are the what are the AI companies that actually have parameters in place
• 16:26
  so that or regulations that you know do do limit their capabilities so they don't have as much of
• 16:34
  an impact on society or the environment and all of that so when you do the AI deep dive in the
• 16:39
  club I would love to know companies that are trying their best to not use oil and gas to power
• 16:45
  AI that would be really cool I'd love to invest in companies like that with this though is quite
• 16:50
  interesting that this new AI player deep seek is a Chinese company and oh god they're America China
• 17:00
  penis war exactly I didn't even think and just with everything going on with TikTok and everything
• 17:07
  and then it's like they're like we're gonna hit you while you're down yeah TikTok is the
• 17:13
  least of your worries right now we've got this deep seek coming out of the woodwork I'm kind of like
• 17:18
  go China is that weird Trump's probably like oh gosh no now I've got to deal with this as well
• 17:23
  like god but on the TikTok front I think this is kind of probably going to be a regular currency
• 17:28
  in the care of weekly but we have another update is that Microsoft I saw this oh my god I almost
• 17:36
  thought I should be buying Microsoft because that's genius sorry I'm getting way too excited you
• 17:41
  explain what's happening no no I know you think there's the Microsoft's big boring business that's
• 17:47
  just like almost asleep at the wheel I really do but they actually attempted to buy TikTok in 2020
• 17:56
  from bite dance and that was when they're kind of the company first the Chinese company bite dance
• 18:00
  first felt pressure from the US to sell and Microsoft was like hey look they were in conversations
• 18:06
  with them so it kind of seems natural that they're having those conversations with TikTok again
• 18:10
  surely it won't Microsoft to be your daddy not Trump yeah 100% you would rather a company own it
• 18:17
  than a government definitely but as an investor at Microsoft I'm sitting here thinking that the
• 18:23
  price tag that everyone's talking about is $20 billion so it's not cheap you're buying $20 billion
• 18:28
  of something that you're not going to know the recipe to or know the algorithm to it's kind of
• 18:34
  your half buying a company but you're not you're not getting all the trade secrets oh that's
• 18:39
  so interesting so you're kind of actually like that's a terrible idea well then you've got to
• 18:43
  think okay Microsoft has made a lot of great acquisitions in the past it's a great company with a
• 18:47
  great check record so you've got to kind of put faith in the management team they know what they're
• 18:50
  doing this feels like such a blast from the past I feel like every curve episode for like two
• 18:56
  years was I love makers of so much makers are so good I haven't talked about it in ages so I'm
• 19:03
  I mean I'm like when I saw the news about that which by the way I'm quite proud that I saw I got an
• 19:07
  email and it was in there and I thought oh my goodness Microsoft might be cooler than I thought
• 19:13
  yeah I mean Microsoft could start selling toilet paper and I'd be like you know what they know
• 19:16
  what they're doing it's fine they're just pivoting it's fine you've done a micro poo use a micro
• 19:25
  soft it's going to be soft on your bottom for your micro poo oh my god you barely need a piece
• 19:31
  we've got some micro toilet paper so good oh it's so funny but yeah we all keep it updated with
• 19:41
  tech top because it seems like every week there's a new potential buyer and they're kind of not
• 19:46
  making much progress so we'll keep you in the loop with that one other news another stock that we
• 19:52
  love to talk about is LVMH Louis Vuitton Moe Hennessey they're not really having a great
• 19:57
  run at the moment for a company that's very diversified across you know luxury fashion jewelry
• 20:06
  champagne you know they've got lots and lots of different brands like fashion for example they have
• 20:12
  sold their stake in Stella McCartney so Stella McCartney is a fashion brand that they bought about
• 20:18
  five years ago and they bought a 49% stake in that business and they sold it back to Stella McCartney
• 20:25
  so they're getting rid of that and this is all at the back of fashion not only is luxury
• 20:31
  struggling but fashion within that luxury kind of umbrella is also really struggling so the company
• 20:39
  still owns brands like Celine Louis Vuitton Mark Jacobs Fendi Kenzo so it still has a big big
• 20:47
  fashion portfolio but it is selling it Stella McCartney stake back to Stella McCartney so it's
• 20:52
  trying to I guess slim down its fashion exposure so much last year it was nearly it was 870
• 21:00
  euros a share and Novim Barrett had fallen to about five hundred and seventy euros a share so
• 21:07
  it has fallen a lot in saying that though I just zoomed out a lot a lot Vic and I looked at the
• 21:12
  last 10 years always zoom out love a zoom yeah it really does it you know what I've just had a real
• 21:20
  moment of clarity if you zoom out on your love life on your work you always have perspective
• 21:28
  so we zoom out to five years we zoom out to 10 years we zoom out to 20 years and actually when
• 21:33
  you zoom out it is still going a trending in a good direction it's just in that sort of short
• 21:38
  term few years it's really had a rough time it's like with life someone said to me will this matter
• 21:45
  in one day one week one month one year if it if it's a if it's a no to the one year then it's
• 21:53
  like you shouldn't matter today it's like zooming out we zoom out and everything if you zoom out on
• 21:59
  a stock price all the ups and downs look smaller and smaller and smaller so yes you're right you zoom
• 22:05
  out and we'll be a match you generally like luxury investments like this what do you feel about
• 22:11
  this whole entire sector of the economy like do you think that people are just going more towards
• 22:18
  vintage and that luxury not that many people are buying luxury anymore like what I think this is
• 22:23
  cyclical I think this will come back again this is taking taking a long-term view I'm not saying
• 22:28
  next month or next you know next three months next six months next year if you had a five year view
• 22:35
  I definitely think that it will bounce back within that time frame I think right now and even
• 22:42
  just being back in New Zealand feeling like your everyone's talking about cutting costs cutting back
• 22:48
  business-wise personal wise you know like there is a feeling of it's tough out there I was going to
• 22:54
  say but do you think it's worse now than it was a couple of years ago I almost feel like
• 23:00
  18 months ago it was way more dire I mean that and I could be totally wrong but this is just my own
• 23:06
  like finger in the wind like it doesn't feel any worse than it was 18 months ago if anything it feels
• 23:12
  like there's a bit more optimism I feel like it's worse really okay right yeah totally off of that
• 23:18
  I don't know it's hard when you're gone for a year and you come back I think the main problem in
• 23:22
  New Zealand and what's such an issue is like the low salaries yeah well yeah salaries in New Zealand
• 23:27
  is just so low but cost of living is so high you know and as soon as you go to Australia or the UK
• 23:33
  or anywhere else your salary is increased just by proxy of not being in New Zealand even if you're
• 23:38
  in a worse job so I think that's what makes it really hard particularly for Kiwis I spoke to
• 23:44
  Lady the other day and she was just like we're struggling to find young staff she's like they'd
• 23:47
  all just gone to Australia there's just no one around it's actually kind of concerning isn't it
• 23:52
  yeah and that means people you know like businesses can't get staff or people aren't spending
• 23:58
  money so they're well they're not getting revenue so they're shutting down it's like everything's
• 24:02
  connected not good not good speaking of Australia inflation and Australia has dropped again which
• 24:08
  is a really really good sign because it's actually quite high there still well I say hi I mean
• 24:15
  we've had so much higher so this seems very low but it's at 3.2% in Australia and it's 2.2% in
• 24:22
  New Zealand so it's still higher than New Zealand's at the moment this means that there is a possible
• 24:28
  interest rate cut coming so mortgages will get cheaper you won't get as much money on your savings
• 24:34
  in the bank because interest rates will be coming down but interest rates coming down
• 24:40
  is a good thing for an economy and the stock market as well so there's got an election and may
• 24:45
  actually and there's there's speculation that will now be a rate cut before the election because
• 24:51
  politicians love to use that kind of stuff to get people on side what is the UK inflation right now
• 24:56
  UK inflation is at 2.5% and New Zealand's 2.2 I mean honestly the fact that within a year we went
• 25:02
  up to like 12% to 9% to whatever and now we're like 3.2% is still very high it's like
• 25:09
  I know God no wonder everyone and their dogs were talking about inflation a year ago that's a
• 25:14
  very high inflation and just a reminder this isn't prices coming down it's so true you need to
• 25:21
  remind people this the prices are still that higher level they're just not growing as fast as
• 25:26
  they were so that's not like we've reversed and they've come back down to what we were previously
• 25:31
  paying you know two three years ago because inflation is the amount something increases in the
• 25:36
  year so if if something that you bought like I don't know an avocado was one dollar if inflation
• 25:44
  was 9% then that would be what is it 1.09 like a dollar 10 the year later but even if then the
• 25:54
  following year inflation's only 3% that avocado is not going down from 110 it's just that it's
• 26:00
  increasing slower in that next year than did the year before yeah exactly and we've got a
• 26:06
  really good course in the club actually which explains why it's so important if you've got
• 26:12
  any money in the bank that it is in a high returning savings account or high interest savings
• 26:21
  account because with inflation in Australia 3.2 and New Zealand 2.2 UK 2.5 you need to be
• 26:30
  achieving that return just to be staying still just to be able to afford the same things you could
• 26:35
  afford last year you need to be earning that return on your savings in the bank yeah and minimum
• 26:42
  otherwise you what you can afford is less and less and less well I think another misconception
• 26:46
  is if people see that you know their savings account is all the high interest savings account
• 26:51
  is earning you know 3.5 they're like whoa I'm getting a three point my money is going to be 3.5%
• 26:56
  big an extra it's like no actually it's not it's just that it's like if inflation's at 3.2
• 27:01
  you're only getting 0.3 0.3% yeah I think that suddenly took me a really long time to understand
• 27:08
  so it's just it's really just the idea that inflation is just taking your money it's so annoying
• 27:16
  we should almost personify inflation call it this like it's like a little tax yeah that comes in
• 27:22
  and just nibbles away and invisible tax like a little gnome that's just like gnawing away
• 27:27
  grab it and get into the vegetable patch while you're sleeping and you're like why are there holes
• 27:31
  through all my letters is this is so annoying yeah why do I have less letters even though it's
• 27:37
  still growing yeah I can see it during the day but there's less because there's holes I think
• 27:42
  that's a genius analogy actually yeah I was gardening in the weekend gosh it's therapeutic really
• 27:48
  what were you gonna pull out a great weed oh yeah I love I love the feeling of pulling out a
• 27:52
  weed it's like the same feeling of when dirt goes up the vacuum cleaner yeah the sound of dirt going
• 27:57
  out the vacuum cleaner and you know that you've oh that's I don't quite get the same kick out of
• 28:01
  a vacuum cleaner but I will say it's almost like a blackhead or a pimple you know the satisfaction
• 28:09
  of the pimple the same as pulling a weed because the good thing about a weed is that there's the noise
• 28:15
  of it coming out as well as the feeling you know and the roots all the roots coming out this oh wow
• 28:21
  so satisfying this is making I'm staring out the window looking at all these um weeds and I'm
• 28:26
  thinking what am I doing why have I not been spending my spare time pulling them out such a fun
• 28:31
  activity also I know we spoke about this last week but it's come up again and so I wanted to touch
• 28:36
  on it because this is a really good example of what you asked me before with luxury and I do I
• 28:42
  think it's going to come back and I was like yes I think it's cyclical there's something going on
• 28:48
  with the champagne industry which is tied into LVMH which could be I guess more of a structural change
• 28:55
  and I want to get your opinion oh oh oh my god is it the people are not drinking anymore so LVMH
• 29:00
  owns Moe Hennessey as the name suggests and and Verve Cleco and some other brands and there is
• 29:08
  increasing amounts of data coming out saying that champagne sales are back to you know
• 29:14
  levels we've never seen before they're falling 10% a year whatever you know whatever the stats are
• 29:18
  they're all pretty doom and gloom and there is one company Laurent Pierre which is a pure champagne
• 29:27
  company and its share price it was at 68 euros in COVID and then it reached like 145 euros it's
• 29:34
  anyways down very close to that level again and people are like oh gosh but people are going okay
• 29:40
  is this just the cost of living thing people are feeling failing the pinch they're not you know
• 29:44
  they're trading down to like a Prosecco from a actual you know genuine champagne or is it people are
• 29:53
  moving to broader trends like not drinking and non alcoholic drinks and this is a really good
• 30:00
  example of when you see a headline like this do you think it's like oh no of course we're
• 30:06
  going to start drinking drinking champagne again and this share price is this low for just because
• 30:13
  of the cycle that it's in and there for I'm going to buy or do you think hang on no no no that
• 30:17
  demand isn't going to come back it's gone elsewhere people are drinking drinks else from elsewhere
• 30:22
  they're not coming back to champagne so interesting why would I why would I keep holding this share price
• 30:28
  I don't know I'm like conflicted about both I'm conflicted about luxury fashion and whether or
• 30:33
  not I think that that's kind of done or and champagne because I don't know I mean I know luxury
• 30:39
  fashions incredible and like amazing but are people starting to feel like they'd rather spend the
• 30:44
  money on different things are people not valuing that as much I definitely think there's a massive
• 30:50
  trend towards not drinking and I think that that will play out over the next 10 years I think
• 30:55
  teenagers will be like how embarrassing why would I want to be drunk and vomiting on the
• 30:58
  bathroom walls you know like I think I just I and we're like guilty I did projectile
• 31:06
  formatted on the bathroom wall I also remember like when I was younger and my sister was like how
• 31:12
  was your night and I was like so good I ended up vomiting on I'm possibly broken up and I was
• 31:18
  like she's like that sounds horrific she was only three years older at the time but I was like
• 31:22
  no it was so far oh you're like it was so good but like I don't remember anything
• 31:26
  yeah yeah I got like black out during oh my god it's by the way I'm not trying to encourage this
• 31:31
  but like this is what I but this is what I used to do I just remember I just was so it gave me
• 31:38
  so much bad anxiety I remember thinking when I go out I need enough to get really really drunk
• 31:43
  that's not enough to get absolutely passive like do you remember before you were allowed alcohol
• 31:49
  before your parents would give it to you or anything and you'd be at parties and all the guys
• 31:53
  would have alcohol and so you'd just go around and you talk to them for two minutes and be like
• 31:56
  can I have a sip and then you'd like go to the next person how's your night I remember once
• 32:03
  I was leaving the house and I had a backpack because we're going to going to a party and mum was
• 32:09
  like can I cheek you back and I was with a friend of mine and we were just like oh we're done
• 32:15
  you know I like there's no way we're going to get your mum's going to see the bottle of vodka in
• 32:20
  our bag and anyway my friend I was like to this day I'm still like you're genius we had a jumper
• 32:26
  in there she picked she opened the bag she picked the jumper up and held the bottle of vodka mum's
• 32:33
  going to be like what when she listens to this and mum didn't see the bottle of vodka and mum was
• 32:38
  like okay cool thanks girls put it back in put back in the jumper in the bottle and we walked out
• 32:42
  to this party so can I say the balls to do that in front of someone else's mother I'm genius I
• 32:48
  would have been like absolutely not I was just like I can't believe we got away with that but anyway
• 32:54
  I kind of agree with you so if I think there is a structural change going on here which means
• 32:59
  the demand might not come back to levels we've seen for champagne and other alcohols
• 33:04
  and therefore the sheer price might not get back to previous levels that we've seen before so
• 33:08
  this is a kind of question you have to ask yourself is it just I know the market being
• 33:12
  irrational and people selling like the Nvidia fall and therefore I'm going to buy more or is it
• 33:17
  the fact that this might take a few years to play out but in the luxury space but I think it will
• 33:22
  rebound I think people will get more confident again and have money to spend to therefore be buying
• 33:26
  luxury items or is it like champagne industry way more structural and people are actually choosing
• 33:33
  alternative things that are better for their health I think of all the alcohols champagne has the
• 33:39
  best links to stand on in the sense that there's like a cultural phenomenon and it's like quite
• 33:44
  beautiful how champagne is made and it signifies celebration I think that of all alcohol champagne may
• 33:50
  have a fighting chance but I would say if I was investing in companies that had a lot of alcohol
• 33:55
  I would genuinely be personally I mean I wouldn't invest in those anyway but I wouldn't be
• 34:01
  expecting them to be doing super well over the next five to years because I I think there's
• 34:06
  so many other alternatives that are coming into the market that aren't even trying to be alcohol
• 34:12
  they're just trying to be nice drinks that people can use to enjoy yeah like I had this amazing
• 34:17
  I don't know if I told you about this I found this amazing kind of like it's called bety though
• 34:21
  at apple cider vinegar based with other essential like flavor I don't know you know super net like
• 34:28
  botanicals I think and you just put it with soda water a little sprig of rosemary and lemon
• 34:32
  and it's delicious it's so yummy like I like it more than an alcohol drink but it feels like a
• 34:38
  treat you know like you don't want to be just having like a glass of water like it can it just
• 34:42
  feels shit I think I have an addiction to almighty so do I I'm completely addicted honestly it's
• 34:48
  like I got this supermarket it's like bread milk and it's like almighty almighty almighty like screams
• 34:53
  at you because it's such cute packaging yeah it's taste just delicious it's so sad that we can't
• 34:58
  get this in the UK I actually was I think I see it to Denny Alchemyr should I was like can we
• 35:03
  do the most ridiculous idea I think you've you know what's it I think it was four years
• 35:08
  it's you need non alcoholic brands that think this is a good idea please let me know I was like
• 35:11
  why don't we smuggle all mites from New Zealand to the UK so that we can have them with us over
• 35:18
  there you know there are favourites why not and with that great idea we will end this podcast
• 35:24
  because I am actually thirsty also I wonder if right now we're drinking champagne at our
• 35:28
  event you know like as we've just talked about this and we're like it's so cool it's so
• 35:33
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• 35:40
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• 36:10
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