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Betting the Heisman: Favorites, Frauds & Hidden Gems · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello everybody, welcome to Targeting Winners Heisman Trophy
0:07
preview. Looking ahead, we're about 5 or
0:10
6 months away from college football, but we're still going
0:13
to talk about it. We're still going to play some
0:14
bets. Peter, how is El Playo de
0:18
Mexico? I've only got 2 weeks left on an
0:21
old Playa de Michigan, so yeah, I'm enjoying the last last bit
0:25
of it as much as I can and the warm weather before I go back up
0:27
there and freeze my ass off. So yeah, all.
0:29
Right, Darren, Just sleep deprived.
0:31
Darren, how are you? You awake?
0:34
Wake up. I'm awake.
0:36
I just wanted Tim, you shared a comment with one of our
0:38
listeners who said that Pete and I had very drab backgrounds on
0:42
the last show. So I just want you to know I'm
0:45
back in the, you know, in the rooms, my daughter's home
0:49
watching the puppy. So Pete, hang a a picture or
0:52
something, draw a chalk outline of a murdered drug Lord.
0:55
I'll just put something up there so that people know you're.
0:58
Like yeah, that was my guy Eddie from Orange City.
1:05
May I get a friend picture of Eddie?
1:06
I'll put it in my wall behind me.
1:07
So all. Right.
1:09
So in two weeks, Eddie Pete will have something in his
1:12
background. He's not in prison.
1:14
He's he's doing. Our All right, well, we did
1:19
national championship last time. We're doing a Heisman this time,
1:22
of course, but there was an event last week, so we may have
1:27
a lean for national championship.
1:29
We got to go back a little bit. If you're watching us on
1:32
YouTube, thanks. Don't forget to like and
1:33
subscribe. But Alabama has historically
1:37
always won a national championship after Tiger Woods
1:39
is involved in a car accident. So do with that information,
1:43
with what you will, We now have a lean towards Alabama.
1:45
We can't argue the science. So.
1:49
Can we can we confirm nor deny that his ex-wife was chasing him
1:53
with a Golf Club this time? Are we sure?
1:55
Yes. No.
1:56
Maybe. No, I think she's she's counting
1:59
her money somewhere so I'm sure she's fine.
2:02
I did. See somebody post on Twitter
2:04
that of all people, Tiger Woods should know the importance of
2:07
having a good driver. Yes, we should.
2:10
Yeah. A man can afford a driver too.
2:13
Why is he driving himself? He says it's a privacy issue.
2:19
A privacy issue? Mobsters drive around with
2:23
private drivers. Yeah, because getting in car
2:26
accidents every 18 months is a really good way to stay private.
2:29
But yeah, just get the help you need bro.
2:33
Get back on the golf course, take care of yourself and hire a
2:36
driver. You're a driver, Jesus.
2:39
All right, well, boys, it's Heisman time.
2:43
Let's get started. Darren, what are some of your
2:45
thoughts going into the air? Yeah, so, you know, we, we
2:48
talked about the national championship market 2 weeks ago
2:50
and I asked you guys, you know what, what is what is the main
2:54
factor you guys look at before you start digging a little bit
2:56
deeper into if you want to bet in this market, just look at a
3:00
little past Heisman history. 21 of the last 25 winners have been
3:04
quarterbacks. The fewest amount of wins for
3:07
any Heisman winner in the last 25 years has been 9.
3:10
So I guess my question to you guys, do you just kind of look
3:13
at the odds board, cross off anybody in the top 20 or 30
3:17
that's not AQB, figure out what their win total is and be like,
3:21
OK, I'm going to start with this list and break it down from
3:24
there. Or is there something else that
3:27
that you guys do 'cause I mean, we that we have had two wide
3:30
receivers win it in the last six years, but we haven't had a
3:33
running back since 2015, I think when when Derrick Henry won it.
3:37
And you know, I just took a quick peek at the board.
3:39
There's not a running back in like the top 30.
3:41
And honestly, even if there was after the year Aston Genti had
3:44
two years ago, I mean, video game numbers, Boise State gets a
3:48
buy in the playoff and that and he doesn't win.
3:52
Even if there was a running back that had a decent shot, I don't
3:54
know why you would even bet one. But you know, Pete, I'll start
3:58
with you. Anything else you look at
3:59
besides QB? Lots of wins or is that pretty
4:02
much your starting point? I mean, you hit the, you hit the
4:05
major factors #1A quarterback's going to win.
4:07
This has become the annual quarterback award.
4:09
I would not go anywhere but quarterback unless there was
4:12
some absolute superstar and it was a down year across the board
4:16
for quarterbacks somehow, which is not the case here.
4:19
So, yeah, wins are important, but I also think just publicity
4:24
being out there is important. The team's got to be visible.
4:28
The team's got to be in big games.
4:30
The team's got to be on TV. You mentioned the wins, but
4:33
they, they, this is a you can't be on a, you can't be on a team
4:36
that's not getting on television.
4:37
You can't be on a team that's not getting pub that will hurt
4:40
you as well. So that is a big factor.
4:43
But yeah, I think you hit the major ones.
4:45
It's got to be somebody who, who people know, right?
4:49
And if if it's somebody who's just playing out in the West, I
4:51
mean, West Coast hurts, which is we're going to talk about our
4:55
selections here and where that could be a little bit issue,
4:57
maybe not so much for, well, the one pick we're going to talk
5:00
about. But the West Coast can be a bit
5:02
of a problem with guys out there simply because they're not
5:05
getting the same visibility as guys out East.
5:08
So that could be an issue as well.
5:10
Schedule comes into play, certainly because that's where
5:13
some of the winds factor in. But yeah, it's got to be
5:15
somebody who, I mean, certainly that visibility can hurt you as
5:19
well. I'm looking at some people like
5:21
Arch last year and people like that who immediately, you know,
5:24
disappeared off the map. So, but yeah, those, I think
5:27
those are the major factors. Tim, what about you?
5:32
I mean, besides crossing off everybody representing the
5:34
University of Miami and going from there, I mean.
5:36
Is there right Yeah, obviously I yeah, that that goes without
5:39
saying no, we're going to talk about one of those guys here.
5:42
I learned the hard way a couple years ago I had the right team
5:46
but the wrong player. I think the voters are attracted
5:48
by the big shiny, flashy thing. So if you if there's a player, a
5:53
non quarterback that does more than one thing very, very well,
5:56
that could be something we'll talk about.
6:00
You know, I had should dwar Sanders couple years ago.
6:04
It was his teammate, you know, 'cause he played cornerback, he
6:06
played receiver, he returned kicks.
6:09
So they will, if it's not a quarterback, it's got to be
6:12
somebody flashy. Again, I'd stay away from the
6:14
running back 'cause they're not flashy really.
6:16
I mean they run fast and you know, Barry Sanders like it have
6:20
to be in order to win. And there's only one Barry
6:22
Sanders. So I'm staying away from running
6:25
backs. I look for flashy receivers for
6:29
the old standard quarterback. I don't know about you guys, but
6:31
that's the safe bet for me. Yeah, pretty much what you guys
6:34
said. The one thing I will say and and
6:35
Pete did mention the schedule. I kind of look and see like
6:40
who's got like the big games in November.
6:45
You know, you've got around 900 people voting on this thing.
6:49
God knows what the hell they're thinking about half the time.
6:52
But it seems to me that some of these people would be more
6:54
likely to remember QB, say, winning a big home game that
6:59
gets his team into the compass championship or in and and pulls
7:03
an upset on the road in November.
7:06
Maybe more than they would say, you know, like this week one
7:09
game Texas and Ohio State. All right, well, it's non
7:12
conference, still a gigantic game, but week 12 good defenses.
7:18
Maybe the stats aren't there for even the winning quarterback.
7:20
So I'm looking QB, lots of wins, but I want to see some big games
7:25
in November because I think that's when that's kind of when
7:29
you get an idea of a few phones. Right, all right, so should we
7:34
jump right into it? Let's do.
7:37
It Let's do it. Let's start.
7:39
Everybody on the. OK, go ahead.
7:43
Oh no, we'll get to it as we as we go.
7:44
But I'm, I just, I guess that's, I tried to eliminate as much of
7:48
these people and come up with like somewhat valid reason as to
7:51
why I'm eliminating these people into that as we as we go through
7:57
the guys. But yeah, let's start with
7:59
receivers, because there are two that can certainly bring this
8:02
trophy home. Yeah, here's one from the
8:07
aforementioned Miami Hurricanes. Malachi, Tony, Mr. Swiss Army
8:10
Knife, he used to flash you on. He I think he returns punts.
8:14
I don't think he returns kick offs.
8:16
He receives. He has receiving stats, rushing
8:18
stats that he he I think he had two passing touchdowns last
8:21
year. So he even does that.
8:23
That's not even on here. So this is one thing that could
8:26
be a possible play, not for me, but I know how you guys think
8:30
about the Mr. Tony. Yeah, From my side, he's going
8:34
to need quarterback play, right? It's going to be linked to how
8:37
the quarterback plays and getting him the ball.
8:40
But still, it can't be 1 dimensional.
8:42
It can't be even if he has a monster year as a receiver, it's
8:45
still not going to get him the Heisman, right?
8:46
He's got to do something else. He would have to have a monster
8:49
year as a returner. Like to your point earlier, Tim,
8:51
if you're going to win and you're not a quarterback, you've
8:54
got to be a multi dimensional player like usually offense and
8:57
defense. But if you're not that, then
8:59
you've got to be one of these guys that has a potential like
9:02
big time returner in the NFL potentially in the future, like
9:05
that kind of guy. So if he can do that and show
9:07
that, I mean, he'll get, I mean, because those plays are flashy.
9:11
Those plays get you on ESPN, All right.
9:13
Those are the things that you know, will capture some voters.
9:15
So you want to see those returns.
9:17
So it's possible, but I don't know if he's going to do enough
9:20
to really drive himself above the QBs on this list.
9:24
But interesting. He'll be a great player this
9:26
year for sure, Aaron. Yeah, I, I think those are odd.
9:30
I I thought it was like +3000. Yeah, I just noticed that.
9:34
Oh, OK. I was gonna say one of the
9:36
things I was gonna say, we were looking at the two receivers.
9:38
I like him a lot better because his number is a lot higher.
9:41
But the one thing I do like about him over Jeremiah Smith,
9:45
you see, they're on the right side, Tim.
9:46
So that was, that was awesome putting that up there.
9:48
I mean, the 23 carries, I could see him maybe having 35 to 40
9:54
carries this year. Remember, they're losing 4
9:55
people on that offensive line. And until that unit gels, if it
9:59
ever does, I mean that dude's going to be the fastest player
10:02
on the field in a lot of games this year.
10:04
So, you know, we love us some some jet sweeps and end of
10:08
rounds. But you know he does.
10:10
He has those receiving stats. Assuming Mensa lives up to the
10:14
billing and gets another 5-6 rushing touchdowns, I like him
10:18
better than Jeremiah Smith because of that run factor and
10:22
special teams play that he gives Miami.
10:25
But the one thing that that leads me away from him and
10:28
Jeremiah Smith, he will talk about in a minute.
10:30
If you looked at that odds board that Tim had up earlier, I don't
10:33
know these two receivers on there and that's no thank you.
10:35
In the Top 14. So are their quarterbacks.
10:39
So if you're a voter, yeah. Did the votes split?
10:44
You say, oh, well, Julian Sayin had a great year.
10:46
Well, yeah, That's because Jeremiah Smith caught everything
10:48
thrown at him. Well, Jeremiah Smith had, you
10:51
know, all these receptions and 19 touchdowns.
10:53
Well, yeah, that's because Julian Sayin had a great year.
10:55
You can say the same thing about Darian, Manson, Malachi, Tony.
10:58
So those four guys I kind of eliminated right off the bat
11:02
because I could see a scenario, like I said, with all the people
11:05
voting. Some people are going to lead
11:07
the quarterback, other people are going to lead the wide
11:08
receiver. And I think when you start
11:10
tallying all those votes that that kind of negates any gains
11:14
that they could have when when they tally these things.
11:16
So I, I kind of kicked off all four of those guys.
11:20
But if I had to choose a non QB I would choose Malachi Tony.
11:25
And he tells Peter. Well, no, I mean I agree.
11:28
I think the issue is when you have two players that caliber on
11:31
the same team, especially on the offense, and 1 is a quarterback
11:34
and the other is a skilled position player and they rely on
11:37
each other so much, more than likely that vote is going to be
11:40
be split right? And that's going to be an issue.
11:42
If they both have a monster year, it's hard to argue who is
11:45
driving one more clearly unless the quarterback is a monster
11:49
year for every and they're driving everybody fine.
11:52
But yeah, I think it's going to be an issue for for, for
11:55
obviously for for this player, but also for the next one we're
11:57
going to talk about here. So.
11:59
I'll just put that up from one of my favorite teams to hate to
12:02
your favorite team to hate. Jeremiah Smith, he will let you
12:08
go first on this one. And we'll send over to Darren.
12:10
Yeah. I'm going to speak wrong right?
12:12
I mean Darren, Darren covered it with the two players and one
12:14
team, right with with saying here going to be a going to be
12:18
an issue. I mean, obviously A-Team I love
12:20
to hate. I'm not going to hate on
12:22
Jeremiah Smith. He's a fantastic player.
12:24
He's going to be a really good player in the NFL.
12:27
He might be the best player in in America period, like the best
12:31
college football player period. He's he's an amazing talent.
12:34
That said, I think he's going to win the Heisman right sayings
12:38
there and I just think it's a quarterback once again, we
12:40
talked about it before it leans toward quarterback.
12:43
So I just he can have an amazing year and you know, be a top five
12:47
pick for sure in the draft and still he's not he's not going to
12:50
win the Heisman. So I just don't I don't I don't
12:53
see that happening, although I hope he's an amazing year.
12:57
It's going to hurt Michigan, but I do I do think he will.
13:01
You know, it wouldn't bother me to see him when the Heisman.
13:04
I can hate Ohio State all day long, but something like this
13:07
like a single player of that caliber winning the Heisman, I
13:12
could be happy for the guy. So I I would not mind seeing
13:14
that. I just, I just can't.
13:16
I just don't see it happening with saying on the team as well.
13:19
All right, Darren. Yeah.
13:20
And and one of the things we talked about when we were
13:22
breaking down Ohio State on the national championship show, you
13:25
know, Julian's saying is one of quite a few quarterbacks that
13:29
that we're looking to see some improvement this upcoming
13:32
season. And a lot of these guys,
13:34
quarterbacks I'm talking about play great against teams that
13:38
they should play great against. But you saw at the end of the
13:40
season mustered up 10 points against Indiana in the Big 10
13:45
title game. I mean, that pick 6 for Miami, I
13:48
mean, dude, never even saw this quarterback comment.
13:52
He's right in jumped over the pass.
13:54
Thank you. Like was meant to go to that guy
13:55
all along. If he doesn't improve his play,
13:58
that's going to hurt Jeremiah Smith, you know, and much like
14:01
Malachi, Tony's got Mark Fletcher in the backfield,
14:03
Jeremiah Smith got Bo Jackson could potentially take away some
14:06
touchdowns from from him. So yeah, I agree with Pete that
14:09
I don't think he's gonna win again.
14:13
I would I would prefer Tony over him, but I I'm not touching
14:17
either receiver. Here, All right, all right, from
14:20
teams we hate to a team that one of us roots for.
14:23
Oddly enough, there's no Florida State players on this show
14:26
today, but we do have one from the fighting Marcus Freeman's
14:30
Darren to Floor 0 CJ Carr. Yeah, OK.
14:35
At that low a number, I'm not taking him to win this.
14:39
Could he? Yeah, certainly.
14:41
That schedule stinks. If he beats Miami, those odds
14:47
are going to plummet, assuming they didn't lose to BYU a few
14:50
weeks before that. I still think this is a run for
14:53
his team. I mean, you're bringing in like
14:55
1 receiver that had, you know, had over 100 yards is returning.
15:01
It's basically a whole new receiving cord that's going to
15:03
take some time. I think they're a run for his
15:06
team. The more I read about Aeneas
15:08
Williams, I think he he could be the real deal.
15:10
He's not going to be a Jeremiah Love, but he does not need to
15:13
be. Yeah, I, I just don't know if, I
15:16
mean, the winds will be there, the good play will be there.
15:19
But again, he's the favorite at some books.
15:22
I, I, I never want to pick a favorite when you know, we're
15:25
talking about a futures market. It wouldn't surprise me if he
15:31
like comes in second, but I, I just don't know if he's gonna
15:34
put up put up the gaudy stats to to get it done.
15:37
But like Pete said he does he'll, he will get the coverage.
15:41
I mean, hell, they got their own TV network for crying out loud.
15:43
So everything is there for him. I think it's still gonna be a a
15:48
run heavy team. I just think they're gonna get
15:50
such big leads. I, I don't see a stand where
15:52
he's chucking it around like crazy in the fourth quarter stat
15:56
padding. But I mean, I'll be happy for
15:59
him if he wins because that's my team.
16:01
But at that low number and you know, whole new receiver room,
16:06
I'm going to, I'm going to respectfully pass.
16:09
Hitter. Yeah, for him, I don't know if
16:13
he needs to be flashy, right? This is Notre Dame.
16:17
When's the last Notre Dame quarterback to win the Heisman?
16:21
And think of the backing of the people that I mean, who was was
16:25
it, who was the last quarter of backing from Notre Dame?
16:29
It's been a long freaking time, right?
16:31
But this team had massive national backing, right?
16:34
There's, there's certainly kind of a, a, a, a penting demand
16:40
for, for this team to do something and for, you know, a
16:43
kind of a status quarterback to come out of this university.
16:47
So that certainly I think if the stage is set, you mentioned the
16:51
network, certainly if this guy is even partially lighting it
16:55
up, you don't have to light it up.
16:57
If he's like leading his team, like just a leader in a way that
17:01
is clearly evident, right. And especially if he's bring,
17:04
you know, if he's comes back, brings them back if they're
17:06
down, you know, if you know, if he just does some of these
17:09
things that a true leader can do as a quarterback, I think he'll
17:12
remain near the top of the list And and he just needs something
17:15
signature later in the year. And if he can do something
17:18
signature later in the year and somebody else isn't just setting
17:21
the world on fire. I mean, this is a you know, and
17:25
and if play right, like, you know, maybe somebody else
17:28
sitting the world on fire with them.
17:29
Now he's not going to win. But you know, if everybody else
17:30
is kind of doing their thing, I think it's entirely possible.
17:34
I mean, he's a safe play. He's got a strong supporting
17:36
cast. He's definitely going to be a
17:38
leader on this team. I mean, the price isn't great.
17:41
I wouldn't bet because the price is not great, but could he win?
17:45
I would not be surprised at all. And I think he'll have a lot of
17:48
support and votes to do so if he has a really good year, which I
17:52
think he very well could. So I wouldn't be shocked.
17:55
And I'll just have to see how it plays out.
17:57
And one thing I want to just hop on that before we go to the next
17:59
guy or, and, or get Tim's thoughts, he would talked about,
18:02
you know, late in the year, you know, he needs that big moment.
18:05
Well, that Miami game is November 7th.
18:08
There's still three weeks of college football after that.
18:10
And outside of a home game against SMU, like the 20th or
18:13
the 21st, that that they don't have anything.
18:17
I mean, there's a lot of other guys on this list who are going
18:19
to be battling for conference championships.
18:21
He doesn't get, you know, the opportunity to play an extra
18:24
game there either. But I mean, I agree with
18:26
everything you said. But if that Miami game were
18:29
maybe 2 weeks later and he was still putting up those stats and
18:33
he goes out there and gets his revenge, Yeah, I agree with you.
18:38
I could certainly see it because, you know, that game
18:40
might be hyped up a little bit before kickoff.
18:46
Maybe. I don't know if I watch first
18:47
Convict shirt, dude, the 30 for 30 on that is very interesting.
18:52
It's incredible. It is very good.
18:55
It's really good, Rick. Nyer He won the Heisman, didn't
18:58
he? I'm going that might I did
19:00
answer my question. 1960s was the last time that I was.
19:03
Thinking like Paul Horning or somebody like that, Paul.
19:05
Horning was 56. John Ron Huert Huerta in 1964
19:10
was the last guy quarterback that won and obviously Tim Brown
19:14
not. Tim Brown.
19:15
OK. I thought Rick Meyer won it.
19:16
I know he he did. Anyway, who cares?
19:19
It's Notre Dame. Moving on.
19:22
Your boy's nephew. Peter, We got Arch Manning.
19:25
Oh, boy. Pretty impressive stats last
19:27
year. Darren, we'll start with you.
19:29
Any thoughts on Arch? Yeah, I'm, I like Arch.
19:32
I'd like somebody with a higher number, but he's got everything
19:36
that I would look for in a bet despite, you know, 9 to one
19:39
odds. Yeah, his team's projected to
19:42
win 9 1/2. His schedule is brutal.
19:44
There is a ton of talent around this dude.
19:46
Texas did a great job with the portal, mainly getting Cam
19:49
Coleman, a couple running backs. They added to that room the
19:53
November schedule. He's got a couple big games at
19:56
LSU and at A&M. Dude performs well in those two
20:00
games. Here's your winner.
20:01
Hate to say it because I don't want to bet anybody below 12:50,
20:05
but he he was the one. He was the one young quarter,
20:08
but the first year quarterback that actually steadily improved
20:13
over like the last half of the season.
20:14
We saw a lot of guys that just didn't get there for one reason
20:17
or another. He did not start out great and
20:20
granted there was so much hype, it was unfair.
20:22
I couldn't care less about Texas, to be honest with you,
20:24
unless I'm betting them, but he really did.
20:28
Pick up his game late October and all through November.
20:32
So I'm ready for the hype train to happen all over again.
20:35
But at least this time I think it's warranted because there are
20:38
signs that yeah, he he's definitely taking a step in the
20:41
right direction. He's got the run game, you know,
20:44
and and he's got a awesome team around him.
20:47
This would not surprise me if he if he gets it this year.
20:49
But again, 9 to one don't want it.
20:52
But then again, if you think he's going to do it and you
20:54
think they're, you know, they host Ohio State in Week 1 and
20:57
you think he's going to win, get it now because of Texas Beach,
21:00
Ohio State in Week 1, he's going to be.
21:02
That's going to drop. So if you like him and you think
21:06
Texas are going to take down the Buckeyes week one, get it.
21:09
Just do it now. Any other thoughts, Peter?
21:14
I mean, yeah, he was in a tough situation last year.
21:16
I mean, first time starter and, you know, he had a tough start
21:19
to the year. Those those expectations were
21:21
ridiculous and through the roof. And obviously he didn't meet
21:24
them, but nobody was going to meet those expectations.
21:26
That was ridiculous. But to Darren's point, I mean,
21:28
this is the guy who steadily improved through the year.
21:32
And by the end of the year, he was looking like the guy we
21:34
thought he was going to be. And this is the guy surrounded
21:37
by talent. I mean, to me, it's this is his
21:39
to lose. At the end of the day, there's
21:41
somebody, he's in a perfect position on the right team with
21:44
the right coach who's going to get AI talk about publicity and
21:48
big games and being on TV and all that.
21:50
He's got all that set up for him.
21:53
Like you're going to see arch, arch, arch, arch all year long.
21:57
So if it's all positive arch highlights and him just lighten
22:00
stuff up, which he certainly can do.
22:02
And he's a dual threat, right? If he's getting the legs going
22:05
and all that, I mean that, I mean, it's in the back.
22:08
The guy's going to win it. I mean, especially if this team
22:12
rolls into the playoff. I I can't imagine him not
22:17
winning it. He's he's the number one.
22:19
So he would have to do something to come off of that.
22:24
So I, I and I, I really don't see that happening.
22:26
The price is too short to bet it.
22:28
So unless he gets injured or something and I'm not, something
22:31
bad happens to the guy, unfortunately, you know, but
22:33
he's play. If he continues on his
22:34
trajectory of what he was doing last year through the year, he's
22:37
going to have a fantastic year and watch out for Texas then,
22:40
'cause that team is going to be. Really.
22:43
Yeah, especially with the NIL money.
22:45
This is for the foreseeable future.
22:46
Texas will be there. Yeah.
22:48
Sounds all right. Well, I, Mississippi judge ruled
22:52
that Trinidad Chambles can play. He's back.
22:56
He's also at +900. But Ole Miss, I think we started
22:59
with Darren last time. Peter, any thoughts with
23:02
Trinidad Chambles at +900? Yeah, I mean, that price is
23:06
short. I mean that that feels like like
23:09
last year's story here being priced at this year's odds.
23:12
I mean, any proven production guy, right?
23:15
And look at the look, look at the stats right in front of you
23:17
right there. I mean, those are quality stats,
23:19
a guy who's likely going to perform.
23:22
So I would expect you to see something similar.
23:24
Again, obviously exposure with the SET will help as well.
23:31
You know, I, I, I worry about volatility with his play and
23:34
volatility with the team, right? That would be my bigger concern
23:37
is volatility with this team, right?
23:39
This is a team that's obviously changing and transitioning here
23:42
a bit and I'm not sure what that turns into.
23:46
So that could be a bit of an issue for for Trinidad.
23:49
That said, excellent player. I expect he will play well this
23:53
year. But right, that's again, he's in
23:56
a conference in the SEC with some other people who are
23:59
probably like black arch that we just talked about there.
24:02
How can if you're not even the best quarterback in your, you
24:06
know, in your conference, you're not going to win the Heisman,
24:09
right? And so that, that, to me, that's
24:11
kind of the issue for for him. But once again, Arch would have
24:13
to step back for that to happen. But Trinidad's going to have a
24:15
great year. I just worry about the
24:17
volatility with Ole Miss itself. So that's that's my concern.
24:21
Aaron. Yeah, I'm, I'm down a little bit
24:24
on Ole Miss as a team this year. I think they were, you know,
24:29
obviously riding the high of we're going to show Lane Kiffin
24:32
what we know, what he missed out on.
24:34
I think there is something to that.
24:36
I think they certainly played motivated.
24:38
My concern is like, yeah, they, they've got a typical SEC
24:42
schedule and you know, so they, they got a ton of tough games,
24:46
you know, end of October, early November, they've got Texas,
24:48
Georgia and Oklahoma in there. Three out of four weeks, you
24:54
know, the window is only sitting at 7 1/2.
24:56
So I, I don't know the the odds makers really aren't expecting a
24:59
lot and got, you know, I already talked to you guys before you
25:02
recorded. I'm short on sleep for reasons.
25:05
We won't get. Into but does anybody look at
25:08
this guy and be like, OK, you were an FCS quarterback last
25:15
year. The only reason you played is
25:17
'cause somebody got hurt. Now there's film on you.
25:20
Do defenses adjust to him and maybe he's not as great as he
25:29
was last year? I'm just, I'm just wondering,
25:32
you know, not, not any part of it.
25:34
So I'm trying to think, well, why do I want to dismiss him at
25:36
9:00 to 1:00? The schedule's tough.
25:39
You know, again, FCS guy this time last year.
25:43
And again, I talked about the timing of the schedule.
25:45
While they start out in November with that Georgia and Oklahoma
25:47
game, their last two games are against Wofford and Mississippi
25:50
State. I mean, is anybody really going
25:52
to give you credit for smoking those two schools, you know, at
25:56
the back end of your schedule? I mean, you might not even be in
26:00
contention for the SEC title game well before November even
26:03
starts, so. Got that big game early
26:06
September. Is that your Florida State boys?
26:10
Is that they're. Playing you're LSU.
26:12
Yeah, that's Pete. And I'll be yeah, Pete and I'll
26:15
be just cursing back and forth for a solid 3 1/2 hours that
26:18
day. But yeah, I mean, the, the
26:21
number's too short for me. And, you know, I don't like the
26:24
the last couple weeks of his schedule.
26:25
Yeah, he could certainly pad his stats.
26:27
But like Pete said, there's a ton of solid quarterbacks in
26:30
this conference alone, you know, not even talking about Big 10
26:33
and the other two Power 4 conferences.
26:36
But like you said, if you're not playing in your conference title
26:38
game, you know, you're probably not going to get a, a, a second
26:43
look. So this number's too short.
26:45
Yeah, if he was like 15 to 118 to 1, yeah, maybe I would
26:49
consider. But nine to one that that's
26:51
that's last year's performance easily baked in and that number
26:56
not a fan. And I'm, you know, not high on
27:00
Ole Miss. So another reason I just I'm
27:03
avoiding this. Guy, I think last year was their
27:05
shot, you know, like. Yeah, I mean, their defense
27:08
wasn't great, you know, but now Pete Golding's got to do do the
27:11
head coaching thing and he's still calling defensive plays,
27:14
apparently. And I just got to do it for a
27:15
full year and he's had some extra games so people have extra
27:19
tape on him and what he likes to run.
27:20
So it's possible that if the diva's looking any better, he is
27:25
definitely going to be forced to put up the stats.
27:27
But, you know, let me see if if you can do it a second year and
27:31
add 9 to one. No, no, Sir.
27:33
Don't like it all? Right, but move on now we're
27:36
getting into our territory over plus 1000.
27:39
We got plus 1200 Dante Moore of Oregon.
27:43
This is actually one of my bets here.
27:45
I got, I think Oregon's a stat factory, you know, last year at
27:51
30 touchdowns. If I looking at his schedule, I
27:55
would pull that up on the screen here.
27:56
He could get that touchdown total up a lot closer to 40 if
28:00
not 40. I wouldn't be surprised.
28:03
Tough Rd. game at USC and a tough Rd. game at Ohio State.
28:08
The other Rd. games are winnable.
28:09
The rest are at home. Oklahoma State, Boise State.
28:15
No, Washington's always a shootout.
28:17
You know, maybe Illinois, see what they do.
28:20
I can see this. You know, if he can cut down the
28:22
interception to single digits, get the touchdown total up, Dan
28:26
Lanning isn't shy about dropping 40 on somebody.
28:29
So I could see just a cranking out numbers every week.
28:33
And there's your flash, even though it's on the West Coast,
28:35
it'll be a lot of flash here. I don't know what you guys
28:37
think. Darren, go with you.
28:39
Yeah, I I agree with you. This is this is my bet as well.
28:42
You take a look at that schedule and you're just kind of like,
28:45
well, yeah, all right, Ohio State and Michigan.
28:48
But but if you dig a little deeper, there's a lot, there's a
28:51
lot of teams in the Big 10 that I think that are going to be
28:53
improved. We talked about how the SEC top
28:55
to bottom might be like the best conference in the Big 10.
28:57
So like top heavy three teams or so.
28:59
I think the Big 10 is catching up, man.
29:01
I think USC will still be a good offensive club if their defense
29:05
is still terrible. That Boise Oak, that first four
29:08
games, yeah, Dante Morka have 40 touchdowns by then.
29:11
I mean those defenses. Are rhyme.
29:13
For Heisman padding numbers, but UCLA is gonna be better with
29:17
Chesney. Nebraska should be a little bit
29:19
better and not really sold on Illinois, but Brett Buell was a
29:23
good coach. He'll probably have Illinois.
29:26
Northwestern should be a little bit better.
29:28
You know, Ohio State's gonna be good.
29:29
I'm high on Michigan. Sorry, Pete, don't mean to jinx
29:32
ya. And I love Washington.
29:34
So this is not like an easy, you know, Big 10 schedule.
29:38
And and Vegas has Oregon's win total at 10 1/2.
29:41
Only slight plus money to the over.
29:43
So he's gonna get the wins. He's gonna get the stats.
29:47
You know, look at that November schedule, Ohio State, Michigan
29:51
and Washington, two of those are, I mean, he doesn't have to
29:54
go in and beat Ohio State. But you know, like Tim said, he,
29:57
you know, he can't go in there and, you know, throw 3
30:01
interceptions if if it's a close game.
30:04
And, you know, even if they lose, if they have a good
30:07
showing, I think at the very least he's going to New York.
30:10
So, yeah, at 12 to one with that schedule, especially that back
30:14
end of the schedule. Yep, There we go, baby.
30:19
Quack, quack mother. That's right, Darren, any final
30:24
thoughts on Dante Moore? Love him, bet him, run to your
30:28
sports. Book yeah, You know what?
30:33
So for the Natty show, I really, really kicked around Oregon as a
30:37
potential bet, and I didn't. For this show, I really kicked
30:41
around Dante Moore and I didn't. And I walked by somebody 2 days
30:45
ago with a Ducks jersey on the Malecon down here in Mexico.
30:48
So that's three things that say go bet them both right now.
30:53
Go bet Dante, go bet Oregon. They're going to win it.
30:56
He's going to win the Heisman. It's in the bag.
30:59
Clearly the Matrix is telling me something that I'm not listening
31:02
to. So no, I mean, Dante's a
31:04
fantastic player. I, I have, that was where I was
31:07
going to go originally and I didn't, and especially when I
31:11
knew you guys were going to bet it.
31:12
But the whole West Coast thing when I was talking about the
31:14
West Coast, I think it's a bit of an exception because he's in
31:17
the Big 10 and he's coming out east a lot out this and he's
31:20
playing, you know, big 10 teams. He's so he's he's playing
31:23
Michigan, he's playing Ohio State.
31:24
He's playing these teams where he's going to get TV coverage
31:27
with big audiences back out ease.
31:30
So that doesn't Oregon doesn't qualify as one of those teams
31:33
and guys that's been lost out. So he he's actually going to get
31:37
the coverage and I think it's going to be a beast.
31:38
So as they, as they both said, everybody go bet Dante, go bet
31:43
Oregon. It's in a bag.
31:46
I I got to ask Pete, 'cause I see on here, did you bump into
31:49
the guy with the Oregon jersey on the way to buy your
31:51
Chardonnay or whatever it is you're drinking there?
31:55
Nothing says gridiron tough guy football like sipping your
31:58
exciting white here. I.
32:00
Think an exciting white from that with my new ink that I got
32:05
in Mexico, which you can't see. About.
32:06
Oh boy. And no, it was actually, it was
32:09
actually a female, it was like 25 years old wearing that Ducks
32:12
jersey out and oh God. So I was like, OK, this is I
32:15
don't know the matrix is speaking.
32:16
To me, well, you should have led with that, so yeah.
32:18
So I think, I think that I'm going to have to go bet those
32:20
anyway because I think something's taught me to bet
32:23
them. So yeah, you're going full narco
32:25
terrorist now with the ink. You got it.
32:26
We got the right. Another one of your boys here at
32:29
people starting with you, Julian saying another one at plus 1200.
32:34
Yeah, I mean we. Started, we started to talk
32:36
about it earlier, right? I mean, it's the problem for
32:38
him. I think he's going to have a
32:39
very good year. Problem for him is he's got
32:42
another guy on his team that there's also on this list.
32:45
And that's generally you don't help each other with that.
32:49
Yeah, you'll help each other win, it'll help the team, but
32:52
you're not going to help each other in terms of an individual
32:55
award like this. You're likely to take something
32:58
away from each other. So I think that's going to be
33:00
the issue. Plus, to be honest, I mean, the
33:03
way he played in the playoffs last year, he's got to improve.
33:07
I mean, he was completely outclassed.
33:09
He was completely outclassed in that playoff game.
33:12
He just, he did. He did.
33:13
He was not nearly as good as the competition.
33:17
So he's got to be better than that.
33:18
That was not a Heisman Trophy winner playing that game.
33:22
So if he's not better than that, then he shouldn't win the thing
33:25
anyway. But I assume he's going to be.
33:27
I assume that he will continue to improve for this year.
33:30
I expect the team to be good, but I don't.
33:31
I am I am not sold that he's a guy that you can just lean on to
33:36
carry and I would expect a Heisman Trophy Leonard
33:39
quarterback that you can do that and I don't.
33:42
I don't. I'm not sure he's that guy.
33:44
Honestly. He's just in a system and a team
33:46
with a coach that's a machine and it works for him.
33:49
I don't think you could pull him out and go stick him on some
33:51
other team and he'd be on this list.
33:53
Actually I'm or if he would be, he'd be way down the list.
33:56
That's my position on him. I just don't think individually
33:59
I I'm honestly not sure he's an NFL quarterback.
34:03
That's my perspective. So hot take.
34:05
There we go, Darren. Yeah, I agree with everything
34:09
Pete said. I have nothing to add.
34:12
Oh boy. Yeah, sorry.
34:15
I liked that too. Yeah.
34:16
That was a hot take right there. But he's he's Pete's 100% right.
34:20
And you, you got to sip your Chardonnay when you make your
34:22
your savior. How does how about Peach iced
34:25
tea? That's what I have.
34:27
I mean hitting like caffeine like crazy.
34:29
That's a poor man's Chardonnay. There we go, our next I have
34:32
two. Children in college.
34:33
I'm a poor man. What do you want?
34:34
Me to do, that's right. Got another one at plus 1200.
34:37
Josh Hoover joining the defending national champions at
34:40
Indiana. Darren went with Pete last time.
34:44
Want to start us off with Josh Hoover?
34:47
Would it be just a cop out to say I don't see him giving it to
34:49
two Indiana quarterbacks back-to-back years?
34:54
Yeah. I don't really want to roll with
34:56
that, though, because that seems kind of lame.
34:57
But I mean, I think this guy is going to be a product of the
35:00
Indiana system. I mean, you look at that there,
35:02
those 13 picks, you know, if you put that up a 2024, there was
35:06
also double digit picks in that year as well.
35:09
To be fair, he did have to carry a lot of TCU offensively.
35:13
He does love to sling the ball around.
35:15
So picks are going to happen. I don't think he's going to be
35:17
asked to do nearly as much as he had to do at TCU.
35:20
And I don't know if the stats will be there.
35:23
I think Indiana, yeah, they're just going to focus on
35:26
controlling the ball, not turn it over.
35:29
They know Josh loves to turn it over.
35:31
So I think he's just going to get a little less on his plate,
35:35
at least a start. But yeah, 12 to one is is again,
35:41
that that's too short. I mean, their schedules not, I
35:45
mean, wrote down some of the tough games.
35:47
I mean, they host USC in November.
35:50
They go to Washington. I mean, there's no real yeah,
35:53
they've got Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington.
35:56
Those are pretty much their BIG4 games.
35:58
I, I don't know if there's enough good games for him to
36:01
shine in where he's going to get the votes to even go to New
36:05
York, much less win. And honestly, I don't think
36:07
they're going to give it to Indiana player two years in a
36:09
row. And I, I don't, I, I think Pete,
36:11
you and I both agree. I don't think we're really high
36:12
on Indiana. I think on our national title
36:14
show, we're like, no, it it's too hard to repeat.
36:16
They lost too much. Tim knows from Mike Norvell.
36:20
Just because the portal works one year doesn't mean it always
36:22
works every single year. So, you know, a lot of his James
36:25
Madison guys have probably graduated or playing in the NFL.
36:30
No, I'm, I'm not saying Indiana's going to be 4:00 and
36:33
8:00, but I mean, they're, they're not going 16 enough.
36:37
There not. You you got your Florida State
36:39
dig in before the end of show you happy You got you get that
36:41
out of your system. No, not really.
36:43
I'm tired. I'm going.
36:44
I'm like 3 1/2 hours of sleep. All right, now we got a Duke
36:49
transfer going down to EU, so we got Darian Bensa.
36:54
He's he also at plus 12 points. You got a lot of those here in a
36:56
little log jam. Peter, let's start with you.
36:59
He's heading down to Miami. Yeah.
37:02
We talked about it a little bit, or at least we touched on it a
37:05
little bit earlier, right? So, yeah, I mean, I think he's
37:08
going to perform well there. I mean, I think clearly the the
37:12
speed and the talent on that team is hard to argue with right
37:15
there. This is a team that, you know,
37:18
procure his talent, right? They have speed, they have
37:20
talent and he's going to have players around that can that can
37:22
run and then and so I it should serve him well.
37:26
I would expect to see him play well this year.
37:29
I don't know if I'm sold on him being a true Heisman candidate.
37:32
I mean, those odds to me are just, I don't know, 12 to one
37:39
that feels, that doesn't feel right to me.
37:41
I would never take that. I mean, if it was 20 to one or
37:44
something, maybe, I don't know. That's just a lot of hopes and
37:49
dreams to me. I mean, yeah, you're going to a
37:51
program that should support the man.
37:54
He's got a lot of talent on the team.
37:55
Clearly, he himself is quite talented.
37:58
But yeah, I just don't see it. I mean, I spent some time
38:02
looking, I mean, the offense explosive.
38:04
He's got upside for sure. But is he going to, is he going
38:09
to transform into what I would expect him to need to be to be a
38:13
Heisman winner at Miami? And the answer, I think is no, I
38:19
don't. I don't.
38:19
I don't see that happening. So yeah, I don't.
38:22
I think Tony will outshine him. Yeah.
38:25
I agree, I flash him so I agree Darren.
38:27
Any thoughts on Darren Mensa? Don't like him.
38:31
And I'll, I'll say this, and I don't know if you have a Brendan
38:34
Sorsby slide, but I'm going to kind of lump these two together
38:36
as a reason. We talked about one of the
38:38
things we look at, you know, big games, you, you need to have a
38:42
handful of big games, you know, to really get yourself out
38:45
there. I mean, they'll get the, they'll
38:46
get the notoriety, they'll, they'll get the pub because they
38:49
were in the national championship game last year.
38:51
But you know, you look at Miami schedule outside of the Notre
38:54
Dame game. I mean, is there really a big
38:57
game on that schedule? Trick question.
38:59
The answer is no. If you look at the ACC odds, all
39:03
right, Miami's the favorite to win this conference at -135 the
39:06
second choice is 7 to 1. And it's something similar with
39:09
Texas Tech if we get to Soresby. So if you're expected to win 11
39:15
games, maybe 12, what's what if you slip up.
39:20
I mean, we were all in Orlando last October and we saw Carson
39:24
Beck throw 4 picks at home, actually 51 got overturned
39:28
because of a Louisville penalty. One bad game.
39:32
He's OK. Well, who did Miami play this
39:34
year? Nobody.
39:35
Oh, he lost to Team A I don't want to say it's like a single
39:40
elimination thing for guys like Mensa and Sorsby, but it kind of
39:43
is. I mean, you got all these other
39:45
teams in the Big 10 and the SEC playing brutal games week in and
39:50
week out, especially when you hit, you know, November.
39:53
Yeah. And this guy and Sorsby have
39:55
these cupcake schedules, but they're expected to win 11 or 12
39:59
games. I just think if they don't.
40:02
Let's say they're a 24 point favorite against somebody.
40:04
He throws 2 TDs, 2 picks, you know, and they win by 4.
40:08
Is that impressive enough for this guy to get votes to even
40:11
show up in New York? I don't think so.
40:13
So, and, and again, we talked about Malcay Tony.
40:16
I would rather vote Malcay Tony than this guy if if I yeah, I
40:20
had to make a bet here, but I think they'll take votes away
40:23
from each other. I don't think that schedule is
40:25
there. I mean, is it's like he's got no
40:28
competition. I mean, those numbers that he
40:30
had last year at Duke, OK, that that's ACC stats right there,
40:35
man. I mean, that's, that's what he
40:37
should be doing, especially with this schedule.
40:40
So I think Sorsby and Mensa, what they make up, you know,
40:44
what they get in wins and you know, probably conference
40:47
championship appearances and playoff appearances.
40:49
I think the the lack of toughness to their schedule will
40:53
eventually hurt both of those guys.
40:56
One may get invited to New York, but I I would not back either of
41:00
them. Oh, boy, going to Lane Kiffin
41:07
here. We got Sam Levitt going to LSU.
41:11
He is at plus 1600. Starting to get up a little bit.
41:13
Peter, we'll start with you, Mr. Levitt.
41:17
Oh, you just kind of said it Lane, man.
41:18
This is all about lane. I mean, this is this is going to
41:21
be interesting. I mean, so I'm pretty we're
41:23
rather high in LSU, Darren and IR.
41:25
We talked about it in the Natty Show.
41:27
I mean, yeah. And you can't be high in LSU
41:31
without being high on Sam. You're expecting Sam to step up
41:33
and have a a really good year, which I think he will.
41:37
I mean, he's coming into a a better environment for him.
41:41
Obviously SEC spotlight. He's got, I mean, if you had to
41:46
pick an offensive coach to go play for as a quarterback, top
41:51
three, I mean Lane's in the top three, I mean, who else would
41:54
you want to go play for? He's going to give you
41:56
opportunities to showcase, to light it up, to score points, to
42:01
look like a stud. And Sam's going to get those
42:04
opportunities all year long. He's going to get those
42:06
opportunities against top shelf competition.
42:10
Now that's where the issue comes, right?
42:12
The only big concern with him, because I do, I do like Sam a
42:16
lot here, is that obviously in the SEC there's some significant
42:21
competition that they have to deal with, right?
42:25
I mean, on the field clearly with the teams are playing.
42:27
But also once again, we talked about in the same conference,
42:31
you've got somebody like Arch out there, right?
42:34
So can you win the Heisman if the other one of the other
42:37
quarterbacks to say Arch in your conference as a stellar year?
42:41
The answer is no, right? You can't win the Heisman out of
42:45
the SEC unless Arch steps back, simple as that, Because you're
42:48
not going to surpass him in votes unless he steps back.
42:51
That is an issue for any quarterback in the SEC without
42:54
Art stepping back. But let's say that if that
42:56
happens, yeah, I think Sam's going to have a phenomenal year.
43:00
I think, I guess LSU is going to have a phenomenal year.
43:02
Absolute national championship threat for sure.
43:05
And I think this would be fun as heck to watch.
43:07
But mention the Ole Miss game that's going to be.
43:10
I think they're going to break out a flamethrower, the Ole
43:14
Miss. I think it's going to be pretty
43:16
interesting to watch. But yeah, I think this is
43:19
interesting. I think there's certainly an
43:21
opportunity here. You just need other things to
43:23
happen that are out of Sam's control to some degree.
43:25
And that's just kind of the the name, the name of the game here.
43:27
So but love the guy. Dick or Darren?
43:32
Yeah, I, I, this was initially gonna be my bet, but then I
43:36
realized, wow, it would be two futures preview shows in and all
43:39
my money would be on LSU. So I, I didn't want that.
43:43
But a few things do do concern me, obviously.
43:46
Is he healthy? You know, he only played half a
43:48
season last year, so he needs to be healthy.
43:50
I think the system he's in, I think he's perfect.
43:52
I mean, we talked about Trinidad, Chamblisson, Jackson
43:54
Dart, how well they thrived under Lane Kiffin and Charlie
43:57
Weiss. Well, guess who's the same type
43:59
of quarterback? Yeah, this dude here in purple.
44:01
So I'm not worried about him succeeding.
44:04
I'm worried about him being healthy.
44:05
I'm worried about the receiver core.
44:07
All the wide receivers from last year's team that came back
44:11
combined for one pass reception. That's not a lot, by the way.
44:15
That's only one more than the three of us put together.
44:17
So he's got a gel with this receiver core right away.
44:22
We talked about it when Pete and I made the bet.
44:24
It's like, I don't really like them starting off against
44:26
Clemson. I don't think Clemson's great,
44:27
but not the defense. You want to try and work some
44:30
things out on offensively. So I worry about the new
44:34
receiving core. I worry a little bit about his
44:36
health. I did like the 16 to 1 and Pete
44:40
kind of like Pete said it. If that comes together and that
44:43
offense comes together sooner rather than later, yeah, this
44:46
dude will be in New York and hopefully he'll be in the
44:49
playoff as well. So I, I, I did end up rolling
44:53
with Dante Moore, but Sam Levitt was, was initially one of the
44:57
last two and he was the one I kicked off but.
45:02
OK, all right, Now we got some real long shots.
45:06
These are my favorites. I love like these Hail Marys,
45:09
these he's hoes we're gonna start out with my guy from last
45:11
year, 4000. I got them last year.
45:14
Now it's down to 2700. Talking about Marceau Reed,
45:16
Texas A&M, some of the pros to him, actually, he's in the SEC,
45:21
so he's going to have a tough competition.
45:23
There we go, there we go. There's my guy.
45:29
If he starts out quick, he's actually a, you know, true dual
45:33
threat. He can run, he can pass.
45:34
He's also tough. He's took a lot of hits and
45:38
y'all see the commentators. Is he going to come out of the
45:40
game? Never really did.
45:42
He's missed very minimal, maybe one or two plays, but tough
45:46
Katie's your greatest ability is availability.
45:49
So he's going to be out there plus 2700.
45:53
If if he starts out hot, he can keep it running.
45:55
The only thing is that he needs to start fast.
45:57
If he doesn't start fast, he's going to fall behind all the
46:00
flashy guys up at the top. But he can, if he starts out
46:04
fast, he can hold with him the rest of the year and maybe he
46:07
can get in there. Invited to New York and thoughts
46:10
Darren. Nice hat.
46:12
Thank you. Yeah, Pete and I had a slight
46:16
disagreement on Texas A&M and we broke him down a couple weeks
46:18
ago. He he's a little more bullish on
46:21
them than I am. I like Marcel Reed, but he's one
46:24
of those quarterbacks that, you know, against the team that he
46:28
was supposed to perform, he did. Against the teams that were a
46:33
little bit tougher, he did not. We all what a three points
46:37
against Miami at home in the playoff.
46:41
I mean, that needs that needs to improve.
46:43
Was it Craver stayed? That dude's ridiculous.
46:46
So that's certainly going to help him.
46:48
But he did lose Concepcion. He'll be going to the NFL.
46:51
That hurts a little bit, but that's a brutal environment to
46:54
play in. But yeah, I mean, he's he's like
46:58
some other guys we mentioned he he's got to step up in the big
47:01
games and if he does that, this is an excellent bet.
47:03
You know, I'm sorry you didn't get your 40 to 1 like you got
47:05
last year, but don't hate it. Don't not not a big fan of the
47:11
team, but a fan of him. So yeah, I I will still wear the
47:14
hat for you every time he's got a big game.
47:17
All right, Peter. Yeah, I mean, you said a lot of
47:21
it, right? This is a major dual threat
47:23
quarterback monster potential, especially from the usage,
47:27
right? They're going to use the heck
47:28
out of their offense runs through Marcel, right?
47:30
And that is to his advantage, right?
47:33
If this team can be good enough, they can win 10 games, if they
47:37
can make the playoffs, if they can just be highly competitive,
47:43
it's going to be because of him, right?
47:45
And he is going to get that spotlight, which he should get.
47:49
I mean, this is, you know, a breakup candidate potentially.
47:53
And once again, it's a long shot, but I absolutely a breakup
47:55
candidate. I mean, I would expect something
47:58
like potentially 40 plus total TVT DS, you know, maybe 3500
48:04
passing yards. I mean, he should have a
48:06
freaking monster here. There's no doubt about that.
48:09
So, yeah, I think Darren brought up a point performance in the
48:12
games where he needs to perform that could hurt him, right?
48:16
If he in some of these big games, if he underperforms, you
48:19
know, if he looks like he's truly struggling, if he looks
48:22
like he can't read the defenses, which could be a concern, things
48:25
of that nature, that could be a problem.
48:26
But you know, OK, so that was an aberration.
48:28
If he if he improves off of that, if he truly, you know, is,
48:33
you know, Dolphins running through him, if the team is
48:36
competitive all the way through, if they win 10 plus games, I
48:38
think he's a finalist and I think he'll be in New York and I
48:41
think he should because he's he's that good of a talent.
48:45
Will his team let him down? Will the SEC be a problem,
48:48
etcetera, etcetera? I don't know, could be.
48:51
But I do think he will grow and I do think that he I think he'll
48:56
stand out. So we'll see how it plays out.
48:59
Yeah, I like the fact that they got Texas at home this year.
49:03
They walked to a buzz saw last year.
49:05
Any final thoughts on Marcel? I'll take that as a no.
49:10
Let's move on our next one. So all right, here's another
49:15
long shot we got John Metier, Oklahoma quarterback plus 3500.
49:19
Who's got this one? Is that you, Pete?
49:22
That's me. That's that is my lean and
49:27
Oklahoma I was pretty, pretty warm on last year and I am again
49:32
this year. I think once again another dual
49:35
threat guy who was injured last year.
49:37
So that was a bit of a problem. So assuming that he has healed
49:44
and he is himself, which I expect we will see, he
49:49
definitely is a dual threat potential.
49:53
I think that with the system, with the coaching and I think
49:56
Oklahoma performed quite well last year, especially some big
49:59
games, which, you know, which was a very positive thing.
50:03
So returning production will help him for sure.
50:07
And I think there's a narrative on for him, like somebody who
50:11
was injured, was down, kind of evolves, comes back and, you
50:16
know, if he can have a stellar year, especially if Oklahoma has
50:19
a really good year now, obviously if he's leading that,
50:22
you know, there's a narrative there that that could play well
50:26
for the Heisman that I could see.
50:29
So that would be interesting. So there, there's kind of a
50:31
little bit of back story there to it and I think it could play
50:34
pretty well. Now, obviously it does depend on
50:36
Oklahoma performing well and and some of some of these games that
50:40
they're going to have to, they're going to have to shine
50:42
in, which is going to be challenging.
50:44
There is the late season visibility.
50:46
Darren talked about it earlier, right?
50:47
Having late season visibility while you're in the SEC, having
50:50
that visibility late, Yeah, that's a 2 edged sword.
50:53
Visibility, if you're playing well, winning, it's good.
50:57
If you're not, that's problem, right?
50:59
And so the opportunity will be there, I believe for Oklahoma
51:05
and for Matir. The question is can they, can
51:07
they, you know, can can they grab that opportunity?
51:10
I tend to think it's it's possible.
51:11
So I think it is a potential classic SEC breakout bet here.
51:15
So if Oklahoma pops, then I think he's going to pop with
51:19
them. So that would be pretty
51:20
interesting. So that's my thoughts.
51:22
Any thoughts Darren or want to get on to your pick?
51:26
No, I, I love this pick man. He's he's definitely got the
51:29
schedule to get it done and he was playing at a pretty high
51:32
level before he got hurt. But I mean, he did mention the
51:35
the game. I mean, they they have Michigan
51:38
and Georgia, I believe two of their first four games.
51:42
So obviously he's going to get a chance to to get off to a hot
51:44
start and back-to-back weekends in November.
51:47
They've got old miss and A&M. So I mean, he can definitely get
51:51
get a jump start on his yeah, whatever to his campaign to to
51:56
win this and and he can certainly reinforce it with a
51:59
couple big games late. I I love this pick or actually
52:03
you didn't bet it, but I love this lean.
52:04
So yeah, if you're feeling sassy, you don't want to throw a
52:06
quarter or half unit down on this.
52:09
Why not? I'm backing you.
52:11
Buy an Oklahoma hat next, just for Pete.
52:13
Because I I really like that. There we go.
52:17
All right, now we've got Darren's Longshot lean here.
52:21
Demon Williams are these projections because of I'm
52:24
telling you right now, if Demon Williams throws 78 touchdowns to
52:27
8 picks, he's winning this award, so I'm not sure where
52:30
the. That would be a slip of the
52:33
keyboard there. I noticed John Metier had like
52:37
87 touchdowns. I'm like well shit I'm just
52:39
going to throw my bet in the trash because John Metier throws
52:42
these touchdowns. I'm betting right after we go
52:44
off the air do. We do that.
52:46
Oh my goodness. Hey that was the reason for my
52:49
bet. I saw the 87 I was in so I.
52:51
Mean, I thought I had it locked with 78 to 8.
52:54
That's a heck of a TD to pick ratio, but apparently I'm going
52:57
to lose here. Yeah, this is my long shot.
53:00
Lean here. If if you're feeling extra sassy
53:02
and matir's not crazy enough for you, might I suggest Damon
53:07
Williams at plus 5500? First of all, you can say, I
53:13
mean, is he a crap person? I don't know.
53:15
Dude just out of the blue decided he was going to
53:17
transfer, found out that he was going to get sued into oblivion,
53:21
decided that I'm just going to stay at Washington and came out
53:24
with announcement when they another athlete who passed away,
53:27
they were having a celebration of life.
53:29
So yeah, total Dick. Fine, I get that.
53:33
Chopped it up to bad advice. Whether that's true, probably
53:35
not. Don't really care.
53:37
Bottom line is, if anybody's got a chip on their shoulder and
53:39
needs to make people forget about their offseason, it's this
53:42
guy right here. We saw him in that bowl game
53:45
against Louisville a couple years ago.
53:46
We saw what he is capable of. This dude is electric.
53:50
And again, he's got that November schedule that everybody
53:53
loves. November 7th Penn State November
53:55
21st Indiana November 28th at Oregon.
53:59
Throw in an early October game against USC if their defenses
54:02
ask. This dude might get the 78
54:05
touchdown passes. Who knows, but.
54:07
That would lock. It up, I think he, well, not if
54:09
Metir throws 87 because, you know, he's playing in the SEC,
54:13
that would be incredibly impressive and he should win.
54:16
But yeah, again, not a bet. But if you if, if you want to
54:22
throw something ridiculous out there, I don't think this is
54:25
that ridiculous. I mean, he, he's yeah, I would,
54:29
I would, I mean, this is at least an 8 win team.
54:31
I mean, if he could pull off one or two of these other games, you
54:35
know, a 10 and 2 Washington team, you know, 'cause this
54:37
guy's gonna lead it. I mean, he lost Coleman and his
54:41
top wide receiver whose name is escaping me.
54:43
So thank you. But yeah, I mean, if somebody
54:47
capable comes in to to fill those two guys spots at those
54:50
skill positions, this guy's worth the look 'cause he's,
54:53
he's, yeah, after his offseason, he's, he's going to be out to to
54:57
shut some people up. So my lean excellent.
55:02
All right. I think that's put our picks up
55:05
here on the board up. If you would like, if you want
55:08
to know what who you think is going to take the highest man,
55:09
leave it in the comments section.
55:11
We'd like to hear from you. Let's wrap up with our picks.
55:15
I've got Dante Moore at plus 1200 and I got 1/2 unit on
55:19
Marceau Reed at plus 2700 for my long shot Peter.
55:25
Yeah, I have Marcel Reed at Plus 2500 for my bet and I have my
55:29
long shot lean on John Mater app Plus 3500 and D.
55:34
Yep then I got the 12 to one just like Tim because I only go
55:37
1/2 unit here on Dante Moore and my lean for for the crazy and
55:42
mentally insane which I am one. But no, not an official bet
55:45
here, but a lean Dumond Williams 55 to 1.
55:49
All right, well, last show we did our national championship.
55:52
This is our Heisman show. Starting with the next show in a
55:55
couple weeks, we're gonna start doing our conference breakdowns
55:58
and we are starting with America's Dumpster fire.
56:01
We got the Big 12. That's always a fun conference.
56:03
For preview, we're gonna break these up into two since every
56:06
conference has like 30 teams in it now.
56:09
So if you have a a pick for Big 12, leave that in.
56:13
So let us know what you're thinking.
56:14
We're gonna get to that next time.
56:17
So thank you for listening. Thank you for subscribing.
56:20
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56:23
that are joining the party here. We appreciate it.
56:26
Don't forget to share this with your friends and if you don't
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56:33
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