Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/23/26: Navy Sec Fired, WH Freaks Over Intel On Iran Military, Food Inflation Spikes

Transcript

4/23/26: Navy Sec Fired, WH Freaks Over Intel On Iran Military, Food Inflation Spikes · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: show for everybody today.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do so. The
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Secretary of the Navy has been fired, but it's not
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: like the Davy's doing anything important right now, so I'm
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: sure everything is fine there. We also have Trump inventing
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: new fake concessions from Iran. Will dig into that and
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: what it says about where the war is today. We
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: also have new details about our the US military's remaining
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: capacity and the Iranian military's remaining capacity, So dig into
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: the numbers there. Food inflation coming in hot not a
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: good sign. We've got an update here on Mythos. I
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: don't know if you guys have been following this story,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: but basically, since product that Anthropic deemed too dangerous to release,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: they sent it out to a handful of entities to
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: try to get their act together to figure out, you
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: know what software vulnerabilities existed that Mythos could exploit before
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: they release it to the public. But there has now
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: been a group that was unauthorized that gained access to it,
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: so very scary situation playing out there. We're also excited
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: to have in studio a representative of the new tmz DC.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: They've already got some good stuff that they were able
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: to gather with regards to Randy Fine and Tucker Carlson.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Also just want to talk to them about their approach
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: in general. And then Sager and Emily are going to
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: talk to Ann Culter about whatever and culture thoughts she has.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: It's not that I didn't want to be part of
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: the interview. It's just we don't have enough time for
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: me to get into all the things I would want
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: to get into it, and so I'm gonna let you
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: and Emily.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: We all go way back. My very first date at
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the Daily Caller, I met Ann Colder at the coffee machine.
• 1:58
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• 1:59
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh my, I'd probably go back even
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: for the I remember Seeinger at Fox News back in
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: twenty really eleven.
• 2:05
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• 2:08
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  Speaker 1: the down low. And actually President Trump is set to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: reclassify weed sometime this week probably, so maybe next week
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: are you treated to You know, many people have been
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: reminding me of that, and perhaps I, like Tucker, I
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: will have to spend the rest of my life apologizing
• 2:40
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• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Oh right? YouTube? I'll go ahead. If you're still here
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  Speaker 2: Wait, did you tell people top fifteen YouTube?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Oh right, top fifteen. Yeah, so we were, we were.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I was looking those YouTube podcast charts. I don't usually check,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: and that's just lie. I check every week, and we
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: were number fifteen, which is I believe the highest we've
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: ever charted on the YouTube podcast starts. Not number fifteen politics,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: number fifteen in the whole nation, which is pretty crazy
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: for YouTube podcasts. Some of the other people that we
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: were up against include like self help gurus who I'd
• 3:19
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  Speaker 1: what helps other people find the show. All right, Navy Secretary,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: let's start with let's put it up here on the screen.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Pete Hegsat has fired the Navy Secretary, John Falin. The
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: shakeup comes as the US military is enforcing a massive
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Middle East. John
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Falen was officially fired, and it was revealed in a
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: social media post by the Pentabonds. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: I think the reason obviously why this so significant is
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: that Phalin was fired at the exact same time of
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: probably one of the most significant United States Navy actions
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: in modern history, which is a massive naval blockade of
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the country of Iran, which now extends, remember not just
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: over the Straits of Horne Moves, but is including the interdicting, firing,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: and capturing on ships all across the Blue Water Ocean.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: So for example, we've had Asian waters where we've had
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: an interdiction of Iranian ships, multiple different ships. That happened
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: just yesterday, So massively significant. Now, you know, it's not
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: like John Falin is a career Navy man. He's like
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: a Trump donor, so like it's not exactly like he
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: was mister uber professional. But I think what it does
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: highlight to everyone is the level of consternation and turmoil
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: inside of the Pentagon. And this is a very consistent
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: story from my own sources. So basically, Pete Hegseath is
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: an egomaniac and he is completely paranoid. He is paranoid,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: everybody deeply insecure, and he believes that anybody who is
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: not personally loyal to him as appointed by him is disloyal.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: And so he's had now a month's long campaign against
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: John Falen and also the Army Secretary, mister Dan Driscoll,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: who is a longtime classmate of JD. Vance and a
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: protege really of the Vice President. He's also been trying
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: to get him fired. Well. The Navy Secretary has also
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: been somebody who he's been targeting pretty consistently. And you
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: could put it together with the list of some thirty
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: four now top officials, remember the Army to what it was.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: The chief of staff was just forced out as well
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: some of these. Almost none of this actually has to
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: do with the Iran war or with leaking. Almost all
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: of it is really about the personal power of Pete Hegseth.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: But the reason why I think is a national story
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: is not about the turmoil in the Pentagon, but it
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: is the extent to which Pete Hegseth has almost the
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: complete ear of Donald Trump. And Pete Hexth is one
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: of the most belligerent members of the cabinet. He's the
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: person who really views the Iran War as kind of
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: the raw, raw propaganda effort which is rehabilitating his image
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: more importantly inside of Trump's Washington And the fact is
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: is that Trump is allowing him to fire his donors
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: and his friends like any of these other people previously
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: he himself had appointed. So it shows actually the power
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: dynamic shifting very much in Hexseth's favor, and all of
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: that ties back to the Iran War. Hegseth was one
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: of the most belligerent voices in the room, pushing the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: war with iron. He said it would be easy. He's
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: one of those people in his ear talking about Cuba.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: You know, he's the one who's curating this daily videos
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: for Donald Trump about how we're blowing this up and
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: blowing that up. So he I mean, by I don't
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: know whether it's genius or stupidity, is like become a
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: very savvy actor in Washington. He has read the Trump playbook,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: which is tell him exactly what he wants to hear,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: give him the video highlight reel that he wants to see.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And in tandem, he is basically being allowed to run
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the Pentagon in whatever way he sees fit. So this
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: is a real power story more than anything, is very
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: impactful for the war. A friend of mine put it
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: to me this way, he goes, look, sometimes we have
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: US bias. Let's say you looked at another country like
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Russia in the middle of a war, massive naval blogging,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: and they fire the naval secretary. Everyone would be like,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: something crazy is going on here. So yeah, you should
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: look at it that way too.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: That's exactly what I'm saying about this morning. Imagine we
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: were seeing these types of firings on the Iranian side.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: You already have are going to play in a minute
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Jesse Waters inventing that there's some coup internally in Iran,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: blah blah blah. If you literally had some of the
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: top officials in the military being pushed out in the
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: middle of this war, you know, everybody would look at
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: this and go they are in complete chaos. This is
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: a complete disaster. You know, there's huge divisions, et cetera,
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: et cetera. And so I don't quite agree with your
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: characterization that it doesn't have anything to do with the
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Iran war. I think what you point to is the
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: fact that since Pete is a psychopath and also have
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: zero principles and is willing to just completely back Trump
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: one hundred percent and be all in on whatever insanity
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Trump is interested in that day. That has given him
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: the hand that he has wanted to push out some
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: of the people who make him insecure. Now why does
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: this particular guy who has no military background make him insecure. Well,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: he was a Trump buddy and he was able to
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: text directly with Trump, and so that gave him an
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: inside line that was threatening to Pete. And so, I
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: don't know if you guys remember previously, this is the
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: guy that did this weird press conference with Trump announcing
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: the new line of Trump warships. And so he's been
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: able to push some of these ideas directly to Trump
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: and have his ear and not have to go through
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Pete or anyone else to be able to have that relationship.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: And so according to the reporting, that is why, that
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: is why Pete found him to be threatening. We could
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: put a two up on the screen. This is the
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: reporting from Axios Axios on Secretary of Navy Departure Phelan
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: didn't understand. He wasn't the boss. His job is to
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: follow orders given, not follow the orders he thinks should
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: be given. A person familiar with the situation, told Axios
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: he didn't get along with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They added,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: and so, yeah, I mean Pete felt like, oh, this
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: guy has some autonomy, so that can't be allowed. And
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: the second that I'm going to have a chance, I'm
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: going to get him out of here. But when you
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: think about the Army chief of Staff being pushed out
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: right at the beginning of this war, and now at
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: a critical moment, specifically for the Navy, when we are
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: doing not just this blockade of the strait of hormones,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: but trying to intercept Iranian ship vessels wherever they are
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: in the entire world. Not that you know the operational
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: capacity of the Navy's going to be impacted by this
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: really at all. But if you are an adversary looking
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: at this, you just go, Wow, they're in total chaos,
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Like this is a mess, and you are right to think.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: That absolutely, no question. Yeah, I mean I didn't when
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I said Iron War, I didn't mean like it has
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: to do with the prosecution of the war itself. I
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: will say I mean, in terms of the leaks, you
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: should not undercount that it was heg Seth and Dan
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Kin and Kine really is one of these figures who
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: is not nearly enough of a villain in my opinion Washington,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: because he's the person who's slower. I mean, listen to
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Joe Kent and then also read the exact TikTok of
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: all this went down in the New York Times, like
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: he didn't present the full amount of information, which is
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: literally his job. He was appointed by Congress, and they
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: remember that former Navy admiral who worked on his staff
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: who probably did leak from what I know, the actual
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: you know, warnings about munitions. He obviously was not only
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: completely correct, he was fired or he was demoted. Basically
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: he's still in the Navy, but he's no longer on
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: the joint staff. So these people are not heroes, but
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: you know, many of them probably tried in their own
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: way to get some of the information out. In case
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: you're wondering who the actual person who will replace Falan is,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: it's hung Cow. If you don't know who that is,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Crystal and I are familiar. He ran what he ran
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: for se.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Ramfer Senate against Tim kan.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Blown out, Yeah, like a disastrous performance and really in Virginia.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: Embarrassed himself like on the debate stage. Oh yeah, it
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: was not really credible. And yeah, but you know, Trump
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: was enthusiastic about him, did some of that forum whatever,
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: and just as a so just as a you know,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: to get a sense of this guy is Yeah, we
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: pulled this this clip that went viral at the time
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: of him talking about how California has been taken over
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: by witchcraft and we can't let that happen in Virginia.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: This was part of his campaign pledge, I guess to
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: not allow witchcraft to take Virginia. It's gotten biggles to that.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: There's a place in Monterey, California called Lover's Point. Yeah,
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: the original name was Lovers of Christ Point, but now
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: it's become they took out the Christ. It's Lover's Point
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: and it's really money is a very dark place now,
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: a lot of witchcraft and the wicked community has really
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: taken over there, and we can't let that happen in Virginia.
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: Virginia is I mean, especially down down in Roanoke. They're
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: God loving people. Richmond too, in Virginia Beach, and we
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: just need to mobilize Christians across the nation.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So yeah, witchcraft and wickens that's definitely the biggest problem
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: that we have in the state of Virginia.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Series is amazing.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely felt that way. Oh, I know exactly like
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: this guy. Look, I mean, everyone be honest here. You
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: got absolutely blown out in the election. And this was
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: even with Donald Trump, who was running fifty four to
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: forty five. There's no question about who he is. However,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: you know, like many other failed candidates, he was able
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to get himself a job in the Trump administration. Okay, fine,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: but you know, being the secretary of the name, secretary
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: of the Navy's a real job. That's a serious business.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: And I mean maybe it wasn't because we had a
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Trump person who was in charge. But nonetheless, again, if
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: you were to analyze this in the Iranian context or
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the Russian context, I mean when Russia fired his generals,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: we covered it here extensively. You were like, hey, this
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: is a big deal. Shows that things aren't going on.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's connected to the ground war,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: but at the very least it is definitely about internal division,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: and this level of chaos in the Pentagon at this
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: time is very ominous for what the future of the war.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: You have the most belligerent voice in the Pentagon, the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense, who has been the most empowered and
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: has been the most who has the ability now to
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: control the building in what in what way that he
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: sees fit, And clearly he's winning. Trump is not checking him,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: and I think that is that's I mean, what probably
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the biggest story about, Yeah, the ascendant power dynamics the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: very same time that we have these quasi talks potentially happening.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: This is an entire sidetrack, right of Pete just constantly
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: telling Trump about how much easier it will be if
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: he just lets him go on. You know, one of
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the most revealing comments Trump made we didn't play here
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: on the show was him being like, I would have
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: won the Vietnam War. And look, you know, not to
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: get totally sidetracked, but there is an entire Vietnam dead
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: end school, yes set a lot of the veterans unfortunately
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: ended up embracing after the war, which was if we
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: had just fought the war to one, then we would
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: have one.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, then it's straints off and let us go and
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: fight the way we know how to. And they gave
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: up on us. That's and that's very much Pete's ideology.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: He always talks about we got to take the handcuffs
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: off of our warriors and let them go out in
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: the field. And I guess, you know, have the ability
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: to bomb little girls at school, et cetera. So yeah,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: I mean his way of thinking is very consistent with
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: that Vietnam Dead enders.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, and then when it came out of Trump's mouth,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I was like, oh my god, I actually total friend.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I was like, oh, so Trump absolutely would have used
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: a few. That's when the French begged the United States.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: Only those Bonesburgs could have gotten in there.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: This was in the fifties. I don't even know if
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: he was bored. Actually this is nineteen fifty six, Yeah,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: right later on, if only he had been able to
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: be on the ground. I mean, it's not as if
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: we didn't bop drop more bombs. I think what was
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: in a several week period than all of World War
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Two combined. So it's not like we didn't fight to win, Okay,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: It's just it wasn't really winnable anyways. In terms of
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, again coming back to some of his mindset,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: let's put a three up on the screen. This was
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Mortaza Hussein who's pointing at even trying to explain this
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: is so preposterous. So basically, there's this Zionist activist al
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Ya Kobe. He tweeted out breaking the Islamic Republican Republic
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: preparing to hang eight women, not a word from the
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: international community or the so called human rights organizations. Trump
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: screenshots this and says to the Iranian leaders, who will
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: soon be in negotiations with my representatives, I would greatly
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: appreciate the release of these women. I'm sure that they
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: will respect the fact that you did so. Please do
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: no harm would be a great start to our negotiations.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your attention to this matter. Trump then says,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: very good news. I have been informed that the eight
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: women protesters who are going to be executed tonight in
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Iran will no longer be killed. Four will be released immediately,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: four will be sentenced to one month in prison. I
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: very much appreciate that from Iran and its leaders respected
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: my request as President of the United States and terminated
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: the planned execution. As more, Talza points out, Trump seems
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: to be inventing fake concessions given to him by the
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Iranians to make it appear that he is building leverage
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and goodwill from negotiations that he is still trying to engineer.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Whatever the outcome is, it's very low iq and mentally
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: ill behavior. Now we dug a little bit into this. Also,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: even that original that original claim that no human rights
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: person had spoken out is completely not true. In fact,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: all the d details that we have from this are
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: from human rights organizations base in Oslo. From what we
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: do know is that some of the women had actually
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: already been released, and had been released some one month before.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: It doesn't appear that any had been sentenced to execution.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: The status of four out of the eight women is
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: actually remains unknown. However, you know, any sort of imminent
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: execution plan or something was not known to this human
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: rights organization, who it appears is in touch with the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: families and actually has the identity of many of the
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: women who were listed here. So nonetheless, at a very
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: basic level, like we know for sure that two of
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: them were definitely not having planned executions and were already
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: released at the time that that was made. It was
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: just complete nonsense. It was basically made up. And again
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: the information is coming from a human rights organization who
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: may be wrong. I'm very willing to concede that that's
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: where we're getting all of our data, but it's very unclear.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: The point remains, he's desperate to appear as if the
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Iranians are giving him concessions, and I think that is
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the big picture story out of this one.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: That's right. Yeah, he's inventing fake concessions, as Martaza put it,
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: to make it appear like he has any sort of
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: real leverage at this point, which he really doesn't. You know,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: they fail to achieve their goals militarily through airstrikes. They
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: don't want to do a ground invasion because that would
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: also be a disaster and unlikely to achieve the goals.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Where I've got the Navy deployed now for this blockade
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: that is probably going to be as bad for us
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: at least as it is for the Iranians. Is also
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: not going to cause them to capitulate. So what else
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: do you have left? I mean, hopefully nuclear weapons are
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: off the table. You never know, but that would be
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: the only final resort that he could get to. So
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: in order to project a false reality, he is inventing this. Oh,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: I got these eight women freed, some of whom were
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: already free none of whom were facing execution. And the
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: other thing about this is it is just preposterous to
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: even imagine Donald Trump cares about the fate of these
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: women when this is the same guy threatened to genocide
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: the entire civilization. Was that a week ago that he
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: was doing that, and routinely, basically every day, threatens to
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: bomb all the civilian infrastructure, etc. So spare me the
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: concern for Iranian human rights.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Please.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: No one is buying that at this point.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, that's pretty ridiculous on its face. So
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: put a four up on the screen. As usual, drop
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Side doing the best. This was their Tuesday night roundup
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: of where US Iran negotiations stand. On Tuesday night, senior
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Iranian officials who have direct access to Tehran's deliberations, told
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: drop Side Iran would move forward with the second round
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: only if Trump extended the ceasefire and ended the naval blockade.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: The Pakistani side indicated they expect Trump to lift the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: naval blockade of Iran. If that happens, a new round
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: of talks would be held on Thursday. Today is Thursday,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: so that's definitely not really what's happening now. Number two,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: President Trump on Tuesday morning, had told CNBC he would
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: not extend the ceasefire, only to flip flop some hours later,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: as they covered yesterday on the show, the Iranian Foreign
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Ministry spoke person said diplomacy is a tool to secure
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: national interests of security in a briefing in Tehran. Quote,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Whenever we conclude that the necessary and logical grounds for
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: using this tool to realize national interests and consolidate the
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: achievements as thwarting the enemies from reaching their evil rules
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: are prepared, we will act. Four. A senior Iranian official
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: toll Drop Site that Iran continues to prepare for what
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: they see as a likely resumption of US Israeli attacks
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: on the country and express confidence that Iran's continued control
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: of the Strait and its capacity to conducts strikes in
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf would create a crisis for Trump. Five
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Iranian officials have said they would not engage in preemptive strikes,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: but will respond militarily to any attacks and six any
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: comprehensive deal. The senior Iranian official believes a more likely
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: scenario would involve the US through Pakistani mediation, shaping a
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: de facto end to the war. Without any formal declaration,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: maybe some sort of Korean armistice situation, but obviously that
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: would be still a kind of a disaster for Iran
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: because Iran and still would need to relief of some kind.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: That still wouldn't say existential per se, but it's definitely
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: going to be a hit. Last thing I do want
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: to note is there is this magical belief here in
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Washington about destroying Iran's economy, not just in sanctions, but
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: with the Straits of Hormuz. If you take Trump's math
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: on its face, they have said that it would destroy
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: ten percent of Iranian GDP. A good friend of mine
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: pointed out that Ukraine's GDP has gone down by twenty
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: percent and they continue to be able to fight. In
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a total war situation. Total GDP doesn't matter, Like really,
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: what it was, what it becomes is an existential fight
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: to the death. I think John Maynard Kaynes once famously said, like,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: no war is going to stop because of money, because
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: there was a theory in the First World War it
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: would stop because everyone would go broke. And it was
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: like He's like, that's ridiculous, in naive. It will just
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: change the conditions, and that's exactly what happened. So anyway,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure that we flag that
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: this idea that you're going to be able to economically
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: crush Iran or any country in a total war scenario,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: if it's truly existential for them, has never proven out
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: human history. All Right.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: So one of the things that the Trump administration is
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: also trying to do, which Ryan and Emiley talked about yesterday,
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: is their new cope is like, oh, well, the Iranians,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: they're just such a mess, like they can't even come
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: up with their negotiating lines, they don't know who to
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: talk to. So we're giving them a little time so
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: they can get their act together. Meanwhile, you've got you know,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: military officials being pushed down here and total you know,
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Trump contradicting himself houred hour. We couldn't even get a
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: straight answer about whether or not the vice president was
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: going to be involved in negotiations or not. But in
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: any case, let's take a listen to Caroline Levitt talking
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: about this on Fox News and claiming pushing forward this
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: line that like, oh, the Iranians are so divided they
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: can't even put together a unified proposal.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: The fact that they cannot send a unified message yet,
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: which is why the President decided to extend the ceasefire.
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: Just shows how effective Operation Epic Fury truly was. Because
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: there's a lot of internal division over there. The president
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: understands that, and so we await there are response.
• 22:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they had one leader, one Iotola, for thirty seven years,
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: who seemed to be able to keep a bit of
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: a lid on all of these disparate groups. But that
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: is sort of an open can of worms after his
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: death in that in that operation on February twenty eight.
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: So we'll see if they can get their act together.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, the last part are so much to say,
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: but yeah, after his death, Oh how did he die? Yeah,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: because I mean, if hey, it, maybe it would have
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: been good to have someone in place who would have
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: been easier to work with or some of the other
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: you know, people who were more moderate, who were more
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: interested in diplomacy that were also murdered by us in
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: the Israelis, So they are no longer possible to participate
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: in the negotiations. But you know, it's I'm not to
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: say that there isn't division within the Iranian government. I think,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: you know, Jeremy's reporting indicates that there is but the
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: idea that that has created this deep dysfunction that makes
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: impossible for them to put a negotiation proposal together. We
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: know that's not true. They have had their redlines from
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: the beginning, I mean, from the the onset of this war.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: They've said this is what we need in order to
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: come to a ceasefire, and they've been very consistent, and
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: they really haven't wavered from that. So, yes, I'm sure
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: there are very vehement differences of opinion between different factions
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: within the Iranian government. That doesn't mean that they've collapsed
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: and they can't come up with a proposal and they're
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: so divided that they can't even figure out how to
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: get to the negotiator.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: I would say that Iran's government right now is probably
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: very similar to our own. Let's take a look at
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: roll back every comment I made about the Navy secretary. Well,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: you have a defense secretary who is ascendant and who
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: is more pro war, and then you have a faction
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: in the government which wants to seek peace on Islamabad.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: And I mean again, take the United States out of
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: it and be like, well, the president's business partner and
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: son in law are conducting diplomacy and are in an
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: alliance with the number two official, while the Defense minister, like,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: I'm changing the language here a little bit. It sounds
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: like iron, doesn't it. You know? Well, oh, the Secretary
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: of Defense and an outside group of influential apparatics on
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: state television like Fox News are also influencing the leader
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: to pursue a different course while there's a different track
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: inside the government. I don't think it's all that dissimilar,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: honestly from ours. I really don't. Yes, there are multiple factions.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, we literally had a situation where the President
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: of the United States on multiple occasions said JD was
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: going to Islamabad and then not going, and then going again.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: So it's not like that. There isn't a lot of confusion.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Everything is basically rolled up into Trump himself. I do
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: think Iran has a ton of factions, has long had
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: lots of factions. One of the reasons it was so
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: foolish to kill the Ayahtola is, you know, for all
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: the talk about how maniacal he was, he clearly was
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: a deeply cautious, doddering old man who would never choose
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: war and would never choose peace. He would always try
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: to do this middle track. Well, now there are a
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: bunch of people who are in power who are like, no, no, no,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: we're not going to make the same mistake he did.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: We're going to choose war. Now. There are a lot
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: of people the Prime Minister or sorry, the President, the Speaker, gollibof,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: they have a lot more to lose. Remember, you know
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: we talk about oligarchs. They're filthy rich too over there. Well,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: destruction of their country is not good for them, so
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: they also want to pursue peace. But it may not
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: be the same for a lot of the IRGC or
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: many of the other people who are currently in charge.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: We should understand our government in the same way there.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm not saying they're morally equivalent or whatever, but
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: like you should always definitely take a look.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: They have real institutions. I mean, we have this cartoonish
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: view of Iran that is just like all the ayatola
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: and that's it. So, I mean, this was Trump's view,
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: this cartoon ishvo So if we take him out, then
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: that's it. The whole thing's going to collapse. No, they
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: have institutions built up over decades that have been intentionally
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: built to be resilient because they have been planning for
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: this very conflict for years and years, if not again decades,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: because we've been trying to topple them the whole time
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: since the revolution. So so yeah, to think that, you know,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: they don't have processes in place, that they don't have
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: an understanding of Okay, who has this file, who is
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: in control, who has the final say, what sort of
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: authorities does this need to go through. I mean again,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: it's just very arrogant and whouristic and also you know,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: just does not reflect the reality of how their government functions.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: And again, in the same way that you would try
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: to point to the United States, it's very similar. They
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: have a Supreme National Security Council. They had who was
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: headed by that guy Lar Johanni. Israel killed him. He
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: was apparently the only person who could credibly talk to
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: the IRGC and to the moderate factions. He's dead now,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: so there's no real broker. So that was part of
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: the reason that we had that scenario where the Foreign
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Minister said the strait is open, and the EYRO just
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: he was like, no, it's not. Well, there used to
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: be a convening body. Same with the Iyatola. Remember they
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: have an assembly of experts, they have a National Security Council.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: You could point that out, like we have a Pentagon
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: who's openly feuding with Marco Rubio, who is the National
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Security Council chair and also the Secretary of State. So
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: it's a similar system. It's byzantine. But I mean, as
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: ours all that simple and easy to understand, especially in
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: terms of function and not the way that it's laid out,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that they're all that dissimbat well.
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: It's meant to be competing power centers. You know. That's
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: part of the structure of our government, part of the
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: structure of their government as well. But I mean, imagine
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: if they assassinated Trump, right, that would be you know,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: a blow to the country in certain ways. But it's
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: not like we would collapse. I mean, you know then
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Jade Vance is in charge, and you've got a whole
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: line of succession, and you know how this would all go.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: There's a process and procedure in place.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: The same for that, exactly right, So let's continue A seven.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Can we put that on the screen. This is from
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: the President of Iran. He says, the Islamic Republic has
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: welcome dialogue and agreement continues to do so. Breach of commitments,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: blockade and threats are main obstacle to genuine negotiations. World
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Let's put the next one. This is speaker Galliboff in
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: a translation of something he put out. A complete ceasefire
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: only makes sense if it is not violated by the
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: maritime blockade, the hostage taking of the world's economy. If
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the Zionist warmongering across all fronts is halted, reopening the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: Strait of Hormos is impossible with such flagrant breach of ceasefire.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: They did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: will they through bullying. The only way forward is to
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: recognize the rights of the Iranian nation, so you could
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: see that they're not really budging. And then the final
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: thing here, you could take it with whatever grain of
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: salt that you want. The Israelis are reporting in Israel.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Let's look at that one up on the screen. Is
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: that they say in Israel? It was updated the deadline
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: set by Trump for the Iranians until this coming Sunday.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: So according to them, the deadline is now Sunday. Is
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: that true? Is it not true? I have no idea.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: You could take it for what you will. The Press
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Secretary did push back on it, saying that there's no
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: such thing as a deadline on the ceasefires extended until
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: such time that the president deems that it's not. But
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: that's where things are as of right now. It's a
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: crazy system. And so yeah, when we're criticizing the Iranians
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: for a crazy system, let's also remember to look inward.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: That's all I say. All right, let's move on to
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the military. Let's go to the military section. Now, this
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: one is very interesting, and the response to the Trump
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: administration is really what makes it very critical that we
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: all pay attention. Let's put this up here on the
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: screen from CBS News. Iran's military is more capable than
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Trump administration is publicly acknowledging. Sources say. The head of
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: the Defense Intelligence Agency submitted a written statement ahead of
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: a House Armed Services Committee hearing that says Iran can
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: still inflict damage. Quote, Iran retains thousands of missiles and
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: one way attack UAVs that can threaten US and partner
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: both attrition and expenditure. So, for those of you who
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: don't know, the DiiA is kind of a it's like
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: a private CIA, but for the Pentagon. So it's very
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: reductive way of putting it. Basically, they do military assessments
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: on foreign governments for intelligence purposes. All of that gets
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: rolled up to thedn I. Now, as part of their
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: statutory authority, they must submit written updates to Congress by law.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Remember when the course of the war was happening, we
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: often would get updates about troops and about the damage
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: and about how many weapons have been expended, how many
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: people have been wounded from updates of the Pentagon to Congress. Now,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: not to us, but Congress would leak it on our behalf.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: So I take this very very seriously, because of course
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: for them it's also a crime to lie. Under oath.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: They have to produce these reports accurately to the best
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: of their ability and submit them to Congress, which is
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: an independent body which is supposed to be able to review.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: So that is the official statement of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: And that's not even based on oh, some anonymous source says,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: this is a written on the record statement from the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: DIA to Congress. Here's how the White House reacted. Let's
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: put this up here on the screen. The legacy media
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: is doing pr for the Iranian regime. Again. The truth
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: is under President trump leadership, the US military decimated Iran's
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: capabilities in thirty eight days. Their defense industrial base was destroyed.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Iran's ability to co build and stockpileabilistic missiles and long
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: range drones has been set back by years. The vast
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: majority of Iran's ballistic missiles, launcher vehicles, long range attacknes
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: were destroyed. The Iranian Navy was annihilated with more than
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty of their ships sunk, and Iran's
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: air forces are functionally and operationally irrelevant. Now now again
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: this is and she again says that the media is
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: doing pr for the regime by directly quoting the Defense
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Intelligence Agencies assessment. And then you should partner that with
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: some of the more recent updates about munitions. We talked
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: a lot about that during the war. Now it's been
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: over for a week or two, or at least we're
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: in a ceasefire, so we have some numbers. Shall we
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: let's go through the numbers. Let's put it up here.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: This is from CSIS and CNN. CSIS again to set
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the table, is basically an arm of the Pentagon. They
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: do quote independent analysis, but you know it's basically like
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: it's a defense industrial base think tank and they do
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: independent in the quasi independent analysis in the open source
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: in order to basically lobby for more weapons except whatever
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: their agenda is. So I take their stuff actually very seriously.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Most people do. In Washington. Here's what they say. The
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: approximate estimate of percentage of US munitions that have been
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: expended in the Iron War. Fifty percent of FAD interceptors,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of Patriot interceptors, forty five percent of precision
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: strike missiles, thirty percent of Tamahawk missiles, twenty percent of
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: joint air to service standoff missiles, and twenty percent of
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: standard missiles. The single most troubling one right there, is
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of that. Remember how much we talked about that,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: how important that system is for any potential war in Asia.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: And remember I'm not just talking about some preemptive war whatever.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about Japan and South Korea, the countries which
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: we stripped some of these bad interceptors out of Remember
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: also that we fired hundreds of them just in the
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: twelve Day War, and we only acquired you know, a
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: few dozen or so over the last two years. The
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: production timeline is a disaster. Same on the Tomahawk missiles.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Is we you know, expended hundreds, We've only produced a
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: few dozen. There's only one facility in the United States
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: that even makes them. There's some problems with rare earth
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: minerals to even manufacture them. Even if we wanted to rapidly,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: you know, increase production, you basically can't for a significant
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: period of time to make sure that you were to
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: build out more facilities. So this has set us back.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: This thirty eight day war set the United States back
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: probably a minimum of five years. And that's if we
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: got our act together for some sort of potential future conflict.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: And that does not even touch the cost. With that alone,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: I can't I you know, back of the Napkin math,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: hundreds of billions, hundreds of billions in what it was cost,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: not even mentioning the opportunity costs of all the actual
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: allies that it would have been used to defend. Or
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: if what if we got again nine to eleven. Now
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: what you know, I mean, that's the whole point is
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: to have munitions like this. It's bad, It's really bad.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: And that's why the Iranians feel so confident because they
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: they you know, can see these this report, they can
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: see this reporting that's out there in the public of
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: how much US stockpiles have been diminished and how much
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: that has made not the US so much, but our
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: allies in the region and ultimately Israel, which of course
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: has their stockpiles of these interceptors even more diminished, have
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: been really dependent on us. But it means that all
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: of those Gulf Arab countries are really sitting ducks. And
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: you know, they were complaining during the hot war portion
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: about how they were not getting protected the way that
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Israel was being protected. That dynamic would only shift more
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: towards Iran being able to do damage. And just to
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: go back to that CBS News report about the Iranian
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: capabilities that remain, I mean, it's just completely different than
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: what Trump has been selling from you know, the first
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: day of this war, he claimed that we had basically
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: defeated them and victory was ours, etc. But they say
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: that about half and again This is CBS News, right,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: This is like Trump regime propaganda outlet, CBS News that
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: is writing this stuff. They say about half of iran
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems are
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: still intact, sixty percent of the naval arm of the
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still in existence. That is totally
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, how many times Trump said that the navy's
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: basically completely destroyed, barely exists anymore, et cetera. They say
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: Iranian airpower has been significantly degraded, but not erased. About
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: two thirds of Iran's air force still believed to be operational,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: the official said, after intensive US and Israeli campaign that
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: struck thousands of targets, including storage and production facilities. Trump,
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: on the other hand, says, quote, we've taken out their navy,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: We've taken out their air force, we've taken out their leaders.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: So square that with the fact that in reality, two
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: thirds of Iran's air force still believed to be operational
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: and sixty of the naval arm. And here's the thing,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: because of their position, they don't need that much capacity.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: You know, it doesn't take a lot to be able
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: to keep the straight of Hormuz closed, for example, it
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: doesn't take a lot to serve as a deterrens against
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: the US doing any sort of ground invasion, etc. Which
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: will be sure to be a complete catastrophe. And I
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: think Trump knows this at this point, which is why
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: he's effectively pinned. You know, you could have known from
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: the beginning that just bombing alone was not going to
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: be sufficient, and this is what he continues to threaten of, like, oh,
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: we'll go back to bombing this and bombing that, et cetera.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: If that was going to work, they would have already
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: done the thing that they needed to do to make
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: that work. It's not going to work. Can you inflict
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: more damage and cause more pain and suffering and kill
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: more civilian?
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Yes, you can do that.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: Is it going to work. No, you still haven't taken
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: out there air force, you still haven't taken out their navy.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: You're not going to be able to accomplish this either
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: with a ground invasion or with this blockade. And you know,
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: the Iranians claim that they used a lot of these
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: decoys that they got from China, and I do think
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: that there was some of that, so that as the
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: US was hitting target. Some of what they thought they
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: were destroying was actually just these Chinese made decoys. And
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: then you couple that with the fact that Trump just lies,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: and also people lie to Trump about how effective things
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: have been, and you end up in a situation where
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: probably the President himself is somewhat delusional about the amount
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: of damage those.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Well almost certainly exactly. And you know, let's even just
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: look at what we destroyed versus what they destroyed in
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: terms of how many munitions we expended. How unsafe now
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: the United States actually is to some sort of peer
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: competitive conflict. You know, I had two sources I spoke
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: to very and I said, I asked them very clearly,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I go, did we hold back anything on Iran? And
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: they said, absent nukes, no, wow, we did not, and
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: obviously ground troops as well. Yeah, it goes without saying,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: But I said, did the United States military ever really
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: hold back? And they said, in the first three weeks
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: of the war, we did everything we could do to
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: collapse that regime and to defeat it militarily. Again, you could,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I challenge you to find another person, but outside of
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: ground trips and nuclear weapons, the answer was no. And
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: that was a direct ask that I made here really
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: because I was trying to assess the actual power of
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: our military. You should be terrified by that, you really should.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: And also, I mean, let's take my own report out
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: of that, and let's just look at it. Logically. It
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: was in their interest to go all out because they
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: needed to defeat them very rapidly, and it didn't work.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: So clearly that's why we are where we are today
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: with some fake jcpoa deal and blockade and all of that.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: So you should, really, really, people should be panicking about this,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: like in the past when you have a emperor has
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: no clothes moment. It really should lead like, yeah, the
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: Navy secretary should be fired, but like for very different reasons,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: the Pentagon people should all be fired. The procurement folks,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: everybody in Congress people should be walking around with their
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: hair on fire. They'd go, oh, my god, how are
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: we ever going to win a war in the future. No, Instead,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: you know, oh are going to have more contracts for
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: the same weapons systems. I mean, you've got you know,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the gerald Ford, the aircraft carrier. It arrives in two
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: days in the Middle East. What's the one that's damaged?
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: I forget which one is apparently that one. You know,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: it's going to have to be retrofitted, but it's staying
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: in the area potentially to have to support operations. We
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: basically learn nothing from any of this, and in fact,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: we're actually erasing some of the casualties. Let's go to
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: the next one. Just put it up there on the screen.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: This is from the intercept. They're saying that the Pentagon
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: has now erased wounded US troops from the Iran War
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: casualty list, a quote definition of a cover up. The
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: government altered its tallly of American casualties inexplicably scrubbing some
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: fifteen wounded in action troops from the count again in
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: a document that was provided to Congress. And then the
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: last thing here, let me say.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: One thing about this, because I think this is indicative
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: of something. And another important dynamic in this war is like, Okay, well,
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: why are they scrubbing the casualties Because they don't want
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: people to really know the true cost in terms of
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: you know, service member lives and obviously those who have
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: been wounded. And it points to the fact that the
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: American public is not willing to take much pain over
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: this at all. And this was the point that I
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: was listening to Meerscheimer's latest interview with Glenn Deeson, and
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: he made a great point, which is, listen, if you
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: accept the official narrative about the airmen who were downed
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: and all of the extraordinary resources that we put in
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: to retrieving this one airman, and we know we have
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: the reporting about how Trump was freaking out and screaming
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: at his aids for hours about this, to the point
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: that he had to be removed from the room so
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: they could actually focus and come up with a plan
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: of what to do. That was for one guy. And
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: you think we have the stomach as a nation, we
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: didn't want this war. The vast majority of the American
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: public is like, let us get out of this. What
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: are we thinking? This is a disaster. We do not
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: have the stomach to take anything approaching the type of
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: pain and loss and suffering that it will take to
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: create a different ending to this thing other than the
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: ending we're at now, which is that we lost. That
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: is the ending we're at now, and everything between where
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: we are now and when this thing actually wraps up,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: however it you know, gets tied up in a bow
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: or left with loose ends. It's all about when does
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: Trump have to actually acknowledge the reality and put forward
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: a deal that reflects the fact that we lost this war.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: That is the truth of the matter. And it is
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: possible that he, you know, can't bring himself to that
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: place and we leave it sort of open ended, and
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: then the Israelis pull us back in. That is certainly
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: a possibility, because you know, for them it is unaccepted.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: They see it as existential to allow things to remain
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: the way that they are. And so long as iron
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: keeps control of the straight of horror moves. Yeah, there
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: are other places in the world that will be hurt more,
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: but the entire global economy, US included, are really going
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: to suffer over that.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: There's some breaking news literally about what you're talking about.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: A quote from Donald Trump. I have ordered the United
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: States Navy to shoot and kill any boat small boats,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: though they may be their naval ships are all one
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty nine at the bottom of the sea.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: That is putting minds in the waters of the Straits
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: of Hormos. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: mind sweepers are clearing the strait right now. I am
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: hereby ordering that activity to continue at a tripled up level.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your attention to this matter. Wow, Trump,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: So look the reason why that's so significant? And I
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: almost certain this is a reaction to this story which
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: talks about the throw to be five. Let's put it
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: up there on the screen, and let's make sure that
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: we look at these both in context. Is from the
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Washington Post. Dan la Moth, an internal Pentagon assessment to Congress,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: reports that clearing the straits of Hormoz minds could take
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: up to six months. Now, remember, originally the Pentagon was
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: telling people that they didn't even mind the Straits of Hormos,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: and then Trump was like, no, they didn't mind it,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: and that they did. There were maybe eight, maybe thirteen minds.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Now they are going and telling Congress it would take
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: six months to fully clear the straits of hormoods of mine.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: And I mean, okay, let's do some basic like math here.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: No resumption of the Straits of Hormuz traffic for six months,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: that's oil two fifty three hundred. I mean, let's go further.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: It could be it may be that the price is
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: fake because it doesn't even really matter in terms of
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: the amount of oil that's even getting out that is
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: a full fledged disaster, and already, as we show you
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: all on Tuesday, this is already the worst energy crisis
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: in global history. Six months of closure or even abnormal
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: traffic through the straits of Hormves is I mean energy catastrophe. Yes,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: we will all drive, but gas will be six dollars
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: a gallon, like it will just be I'm just trying
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: to think for the ramifications of all this. Yeah, in
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: my head it's insanity. I mean, Asia, Japan, they're I
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: mean blackouts like rationing, Australia, New Zealand twelve fifteen dollars
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: a lead or something crazy like that, Africa, starvation and
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: or blackouts, Bangladesh, Pakistan, all those places. Nope, they will
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: have nothing actual stockpiles. There's like a few more weeks,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: maybe a few more months left, depending on where you
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: look at things. But eventually you know the price is
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: going to catch up to reality. Six months of closure,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: I think. And this is the danger of what Trump
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: just said is a resumption of firing on Iranian boats
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: would almost certainly lead to what like because right now
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: we haven't fired anything. There hasn't been a resumption of
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: actual firing right in the straits and formers firing leads
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: to horizontal explanation more attacks. Remember Iran fired on a
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: few of those ships that were transitting through the strait.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Maybe they'll fire at even more. So that just means
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: more destruction, less oil that's moving through, and more global catastrophe.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: So if I put those two things together, and why
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: is he doing, he's panicking. And then even then mine
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: sweeper moving through the strait, I mean they didn't get
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: shot at, by the way, even in terms of our mindsweepers,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: I think we only had three and they were all
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: decommissioned like a month before the war something like that.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: So I'm told that there's some other technology that we
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: could use, but the drone threat and all that makes
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: it very difficult. This is really scary.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah. No, bottom line is this is an announced This
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: is an announcement of escalation. That's what this is. And
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: what we've seen from this war, you know up to
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: this point is that the Iranians escalate in kind. You know,
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: they're able to do it and they're willing to do it.
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: And right now, with the fact that they feel they
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: were burned by both probably the Pakistanis and the Americans
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: with this attempt to dial things back at the end
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: of last week, where Rachie comes out and says, Okay,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: the strait is open because of the you know, the
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: ceasefire that was put in place in Lebanon, and then
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: Trump has to go out and humiliate them and say, well,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: we're keeping our blockade on, which is apparently, according to
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Jeremy's recording, that is apparently violation of what the expectation
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: was from the Iranian side. And so they feel burned
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: not only by us, but also there have some serious
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: questions about the you know, Pakistani mediators and whether they're
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: operating in good faith, in an honest manner. And now
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: you have this announcement of further escalation from the American side.
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: The Iranians are not likely to just sit back and
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: take that.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: This is a good.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: Transition to talk about what we already see in terms
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: of the economic impacts of this war. Let's put see
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: one up on the screen. This is from Tracy Alloway
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: of the Odd Lots podcast Fantastic Podcasts, Great Reporters, and
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: she's got information here about food inflation. Costs for food
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: companies jumped almost eight percent you're over year in March.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: That's versus four point two percent in February. This is
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: basically just from higher fuel costs. We're still waiting for
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: the impact of higher fertilizer, plastics, et cetera. So what
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: she's saying there is this is just the beginning. This
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: is just when you're considering, Okay, gas prices and diesel
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: prices have gone up, that's now being reflected in costs
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: at the for food companies, and of course they're not
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: going to just take that, they're going to pass it
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: on to consumers. But what she's saying is that doesn't
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: even deal with these longer term impacts like fertilizer. The
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: higher price a fertilizer is something that farmers are shouldering
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: right now during planting season. That is going to mean
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: that down the road, when those costs also get incorporated
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: into food prices, prices are going to continue to go up.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I don't feel that I even need to really explain
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: this because we all basically lived through all of this
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: through COVID. We saw the way that inflation built and
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: built and built, and that this was not something that
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: just happens when you flip a switch. There are follow
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: on effects that continue even after the worst parts of
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: the crisis are finished, that take a long time to
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: work their way through the system. So what she's saying
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: here is we are now just starting to really see
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: the impacts and that this is just the beginning.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I hate you know, there was a lot of
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: accusations of numerism in the beginning, but it's because and
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I think anybody who's been watching been watching the show
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: for long enough period. We all lived through Russia Ukraine together,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: and just because things seem to be fine, they're really not.
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: You know, the entire global economy completely shifted. The energy markets, yeah,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: dramatically changed, the amount of lng A, reliance on Katar
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: became dramatic. And then we've got into a war with
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Iran and now the straight up horor moves is closed.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: That's why we talk about I mean, everybody seems to believe.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Let's say, with COVID, we had the lockdowns that came
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: in March. When did we really start to feel the
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: supply shock July, maybe August. It took a while, right
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: because we had just in time delivery, so there was
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: this deepest amount of stuff that was on hand and
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: then with closure and with this straight or with the
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: shipping containers and all of those supply chain problems, we
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: began to see shortages and problems in July and August.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: But the real time inflation hit when when the things
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: started to reopen, demand was high and the supply there.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: It took I would say over a year probably from
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the lockdown for everything to show up. But because we
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: lived through all of that, plus Russia Ukraine, we have
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: now seen the story play out multiple times, like you
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: were not going to have things end overnight. However, there
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: is a dramatic under appreciation. Gas is still four dollars
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: a gallon. Gas was two ninety six weeks ago. Diesels
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: like five twenty something a gallon, Like am I taking
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: crazy pills? Like when have we ever seen gas go
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: by over a dollar in a single month and then
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: stay there with no real end in sight, to the
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: point where the President is bemoaning his energy secretary for saying,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: maybe gas will have a three in front of it
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: next year sometime from now. I mean again, just looking
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: at the straight I could be wrong. I'm not a
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: total energy I'm not an energy expert or analyst. I
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: read some people who we trust a lot here on
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the show, all have basically said, if the straight remains
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: closed for this x amount period of time, gas will
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: hit six dollars a gallon, gas will hit five dollars
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: a gallon. That seems very likely absence some extreme intervention
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: on behalf of the United States. I also just look
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: to big corporations where this stuff, same thing. It's not
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: going to immediately affect your life, but sometime in the
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: future you're gonna be checking then the way that I
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: went to McDonald's recently and paid four to fifty for
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: the medium fry, you're gonna be like, wait what whenever
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: you try to check out, Let's go to the next one.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Put this on the screen. The United Airlines CEO has
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: now come out and say fares may need to rise
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: by twenty percent to offset the fuel charge jet fuel
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: costs quote, signaling a significant test of consumer willingness to
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: absorb higher fare as the industry grapples with volatile oil prices.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: This was on their earnings calls. He said United is
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: aiming to recover the full increase in fuel costs as
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: quickly as possible and expects to move toward a one
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: hundred percent past. God don't you love corporate speak? A
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent passed through as it targets double digit
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: pre tax margins next year, what does that mean? So again,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: corporate speed yields need to increase by fifteen to twenty
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: percent whenever it comes to that means what that means
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: your ticket price is going to go off by one
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: fifth every.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: Cost in goest for that directly to you, and potentially
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: an increase above and beyond that. I mean, that's what
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: we saw the last time there's huge inflationary spike. Is
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: the corporations, Oh, I can get away with raising my
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: prices even beyond the cost of the increase input inputs.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Of course I'm going to do that. And so that's
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: why you have corporate profits as a share of the
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: economy that continue to be at all time highs even
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: as costs go up, because they've taken advantage of that dynamic.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: And of course they'll do the same thing.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah totally, And yeah, let's just do like back of
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: the napkin. So most people take some small vacation in
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: the summer statistically, and let's even put aside Europe, you're
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: already upper middle class. If you can afford to do that.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Let's just say here in the US, you want to
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: go to Disney. Oh, by the way, Disney prices are
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: very high. But let's say you got to get to Disney.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: So let's say family of four, it was going to
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: cost you six hundred dollars person if you're flying from California, whatever,
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: mid Midwest, five hundred dollars something like that. Now it's
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: seven fifty per person. And you're like, oh, okay, well
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: that's a lot of money, right, And so then you
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: have the increased fuel costs. Oh, and then you need
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: to do a rental car. Oh, well, the rental car
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: costs has gone up too because of gas and because
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: of increased insurance. And then oh, the Disney costs has
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: also gone up because they have all this energy input
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: and stuff that they have. I mean, this is craziness.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: And that's just vacation. That's the easiest thing.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: And you're able to already even stretched it home because
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: of increased gas prices and increased food prices. So things
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: are tighter to begin with. Yeah, you're just gonna say
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: we can't do it this. Yere, We'll go somewhere. We'll
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: drive to the lake here, instead instead.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Of and even when you do drive, it's going to
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: cost more, all right, So then let's put the next
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: one up here. Liftanza. Luftanza has now cut twenty thousand
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: flights to save fuel from the Iran War. Followout quote.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Global jet fuel prices have now jumped seventy percent since
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: the start, pressuring airlines in Europe, the largest consumer of
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: jet fuel now shipped through the Strait of horror moves.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: Luftanza says it will cut twenty thousand flights over the
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: next six months to save jet fuel as the pressure
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: builds on the company to address surging prices. The airline
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: said Tuesday it had already announced which flights it had
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: trimmed through May. So this is just in the next
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: month or two of the twenty thousand that they're cutting,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: and overall that the cuts would save forty thousand metric
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: tons of jet fuel through the end of October. So
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: basically what that means is that they're going to have
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: to cut any of the lesser demands you know, routes.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: It's over So yeah, if you're flying to small ensk
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: or something, you better drive, I guess. And the head
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: of the International Energy Agency had already said last week
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Europe has exactly six weeks of jet fuel supplies left,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: and they're already meeting on Tuesday to discuss the energy crisis.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: So likely, I mean, I could be wrong. I'm guessing,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: you know, just thinking about the intersection of business and
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: government in Europe, is it's almost certain that the German
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: government was like, look, guys, this is all gotta get cut.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: They're like, this is a national you know, a national crisis.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: X amount of you need to save forty thousand metric
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: tons to give us some runway. Any flight which is
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: even remotely unprofitable, it's got to go like immediately, and
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: then all the fare prices they have to go up.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: Another thing we really haven't grappled with is the golf.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: If hostilities resume, I mean, that is a massive amount
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: of air traffic that can no longer move through the
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: Dubai was one of the business airports of the world's right,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: like millions of people flew through there, So that means
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: almost every especially here in America, a lot of the
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: way that people were going to Asia Asian destinations was
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: via Doha, Vaya Dubai, and via Abu Dhabi. Now they
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: would have to fly via Europe, which is already strained
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: and having to cut flights. You could just see at
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: escalation here where unless you got to go for business
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: purposes and like you really got to go, you're just
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: not going to go.
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Well, and here at home, the weakest players are already collapsing.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: And could put see four up on the screen. And
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: it looks like our government is going to bail out
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: Spirit Airlines by buying a stake in it. So this
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: is the latest company that the Trump administration is considering
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: taking a stake in. And so here the headline is
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: Trump administration nearing rescue deal for Spirit Airlines. Signal this
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: week the government could help the discount carrier, which is
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: struggled with surging jet fuel prices. Trump administration nearing a
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: rescue deal. Struggling. They're struggling to survive during a run
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: up in jet fuel prices. Now they had some issues
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: that predated this, but this is like the thing that
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: is really pushing them over the edge. Under the agreement
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: being discussed, US government would loan the embattled discount carrier
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: as much as five hundred million dollars, receiving in return
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: warrants to take a potential significant stake in Spirit. People
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: familiar with the matter said the investment could help keep
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Spirit afloat as it seeks to emerge from its second
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: recent bankruptcy filing. So now our government is basically creating
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: distressed assets because of our insane policy and decision to
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: get into this war, and then buying up parts of
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: those distressed assets. So congratulations, American people, You're about to
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: be proud owner of a portion of Spirit Airlines. Very possibly.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it. Is that a bad thing to say?
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: I like it?
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: Well, here's the thing is, Spirit is a very.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: Look would I hate Spirit? I hate flying it. It
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: still is a very important part of US air travel,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: which is the extreme budget airlines for the hyper infrequent travel. Yeah,
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: who just needs to look.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I like the once hear of government owning key assets. Yeah,
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: I like the seizing the means of the productive production.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: So if it's you know, the Trump administration is going
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: to pay the role, I mean, the part of it
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: that's that's like preposterous and not good is the fact
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: that it is the Trump administration policy itself that has
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: in large part created these problems for Spirit Airlines, And
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: obviously just another sign of like how dire things are
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: for the airline industry in particular.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: It's a little complicated. Basically what they say Spirit Airlines
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: would be on firm or financial footing had the Biden
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: administration not blocked the airlines merger with Jet Blue. Remember
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: they were supposed to merge with Jet Blue was blocked
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: by antitrust because of worries about budget consolidation. Now that, yeah,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: really look like do I touch trust Trump and all
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: these people to fix it? No, not really, But I
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: don't think it's the worst thing in the world to
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: keep a critical airline which you know, keeps it serves
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: those budget customers, and.
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: It's better than Yeah, I mean, what would be even
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: better is.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: To not have double war. Yeah, of course, again, let's
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: all be fair, like they've been in chapter eleven for
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: like years. Airlines itself, I don't even really know how
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: they make money. Actually I do. It's from credit cards,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: but in terms of actually flying, I've never I still
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: don't really.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Well, not just from credit cards, is from like financial speculation.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: Like a lotto large era went through particular.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: As much like you know financial entities like you know,
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: treading as they are, hedge funds, as they are actually airlines.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I remember reading once it was like half of the
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: profits or something from American come from freaks like me
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: who are always gaming airline miles, from all the swipe
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: fees from people who use their credit cards for frequent
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: flyer mile, like, like a significant portion of their profit
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: only comes from credit card swipe fees, which is kind
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: of great. Why they push it so hard, Which that's
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: why every time you're on a plane, they're like, you
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: get twenty five thousand morales if you sign up right now.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: I always want to be like, who is doing that?
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: You're signing for a credit card on an airplane. That's
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: kind of crazy. No, maybe it's just that somebody's doing it. Yeah,
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: it works.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Continuing, let's go and put C six up on the screen.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Here's one more impact that we're facing now. Aluminum faces
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: a black Swan supply shock. According to this analysis. This is,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: of course due to the war in Iran's triggered to
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: supply shock that will lead to major shortages this year.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: The Middle East accounts apparently for about seven million metric
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: tons of annual aluminum smelting capacity, roughly nine percent of
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: the estimated global supply.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: This year.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: It's a key material for transport, construction, and packaging industries.
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: So you're talking aircraft actually is one of the things
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: that needs aluminum, significant amounts of aluminum. You're talking about automobiles.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: US has some domestic capacity, so we're probably somewhat sheltered
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: from this particular impact, but obviously it's going to push
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: up the prices and then that flows through to consumers
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: in all sorts of ways. I think China is the
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: biggest producer of aluminum, but the Middle Eastern region again
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: learn You learn new things in war about where things
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: are made and what they go into and how critical
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: they are to day to day life and how much
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: people suffer when the flow of those good stops.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Well, we will continue to track it. It's the worst
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: energy crisis literally in modern history, and coupled with the
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: straight of horror moves news that we just went through.
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: I don't see a way where we are not going
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: to have rampant and persistent high supply side inflation. Now,
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: as you said that, in no way, and this is
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: why when we look at stock markets, people are like,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: how could this be possible? We live through twenty twenty
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: one and twenty twenty two, they make a shitload of money.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: Whenever people have to pay more, it's everybody else that suffers.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: That's how you have the S and P five hundred
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: up sixty seventy percent under Biden, and people saying this
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: is the worst economy that I've ever lived through, So
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: do not look to the market to validate your personal balance.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: If anything, that's a direct reflection of why they're doing
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: so well. So I think the companies will all be fine.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: I think the airlines will be fine. There are enough
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: business travelers and a rich people who will pay. Top
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: ten percent of the United States pays fifty percent of
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: all consumer spending. Actually, they can absorb all of this
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: in their bottom line. It's everybody else that will suffer.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: So I don't think that many of this will show
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: up in the market data or some sort of a crash.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: I just think it'll be like a continued, long, slow
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: grind for everybody's pocketbook, which is yeah, disaster.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: And remember to your point about the way that the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: impacts may not show up all at once. Basically, because
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: of the Ukraine Russia slash COVID inflation, almost every incumbent
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: party and president or leader, almost all of them got
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: tossed out like globally, Yeah, I mean it was this massive,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: massive reckoning politically political reckoning. Obviously we experienced it here
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: in the US with Biden and then Kamala Harris being
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: rejected in favor of going back to Trump. But the
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: outliers were places like Mexico where they stuck with the
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: same party. That was very unusual. Almost everywhere else the
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: incumbent party tossed out if there were elections during that
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: time period. So it just shows you how much turmoil
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: can be caused by these changes in prices.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're looking of course, in housing. I
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: mean you let's think about you know, there are a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: lot of young guys who voted for Trump, right, I
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: would say the economy is probably number one, number one
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: in culture. Those are the two things, right, where a
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: lot of young dudes who voted for Trump. Well, let's
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: say we're like twenty six. Well, after Trump is gone,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: you're gonna be thirty. It's actually like a different phase
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: in life. Yeah, and you're still facing the same economic
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: condition that's going to make people real angry. I think
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: it should be angry. And that is something where if
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: you look at his approval rating. The main reason that
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: let's even say economically, why did Trump get reelected? It's actually,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: if you think from a normal voter's perspective, well, gas
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: was x price when he was president, Inflation was low.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: Biden came in and it was high. That's all they
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: really had to think about. So I vote for Trump
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: and it goes back.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: My life was easier during Trump one, very large than
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: it was during Biden.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: Right, extremely logical actually in terms of a vote, Well,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: now this time around, it's not going to be that way.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: So it makes a change election not only more likely,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: but it makes it so that the solution will be
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: a lot more radical, I think. So there you go,