Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB Week 0 Recap
Transcript
- Greg: Hey, what's up everybody? And welcome to the Sunday recap after yesterday's ⁓ enthralling college football action. I have threw some money around. We had some wins, we had some losses. I think if you paid attention to what we put out there leading into the weekend, you you'd garner the idea that maybe we know a little bit about college football. We we pretty much read all the games right, other than the TCU North Carolina game, which leads me to a point. I'm a big fan of lists. I like moving things up and down lists. It makes me feel good for some damn reason. And I'm gonna tell you something. Ireland is on a couple lists. It is up near and will remain at the top of the bucket list of places I want to travel. It is also now up near the very top of places I refuse to bet on a damn college football game again. Because although we all had North Carolina plus the points and the under, we read that game right. I know none of us at least admitted to saying That we thought TCU had a chance of losing that game. I texted both you guys Saturday morning and said, you know, it's odd that nobody's given North Carolina a shot. Lo and behold, that ends up what happened. But clearly I was on the other side because I had TCU as the the money line piece in the parlay. So other than that, though, I think we read the games right. I I think it was a fun opening weekend. I'm ready for a big slate this weekend. ⁓ we did go, I think, eleven and seven as a team. So hey, that's that's slightly north of sixty percent. If you ⁓ if you tail along and can ⁓ can clip that sixty percent pace for a whole season, ⁓ you and the three of us will be some happy campers. So let's get into ⁓ the stars of the show. I'm gonna I'm gonna hand it off to Mr. Chad Longacre first. Chad, would it ⁓ tell me a little bit about your recap, how you feel about ⁓ what we saw yesterday, and what you think you learned that we might can ⁓ spit into a little more winners moving forward. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: First, I wanna give a big shout out to my man B. Ryan, going five and one yesterday. Huh? Greg: I was saving him last for a reason. I was saving him for last for a reason. Brian: Ha ha. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Gosh, you gotta get the hey, let it let everybody in the beginning of the show hear that this dude went five and one yesterday, so that's off to you, big guy. ⁓ Greg: And the only ⁓ and the only miss was absolutely an emotional bet 'cause he can't not bet on Florida State. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: And I could not tell him not to do it in the text message. 'Cause I was on the other side with the points. Greg: So talk a little about your your recap, your rundown, and what you ⁓ what you think you might have picked up for that you ⁓ that you think will be useful to share with our listeners. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: One thing I noticed yesterday, ⁓ North Carolina's Quarterback looked extremely confident. He looked really good. He looked poised. What I noticed he did a lot was ⁓ he does follow the receiver he's going to with his eyes. I think it's something to watch out for, but I think Billchuk has absolutely kind of last year he seemed unhe seemed checked out. I watched him looking in stands last year. He was in this game taking notes, getting in coaches' faces. I liked what I saw in North Carolina. Greg: I don't disagree. And and I think, you know, a and that they talked about it a little bit on the on the telecast. I I think part of it maybe p some of us didn't quite really think through enough and place enough value on was the fact that it because of the weirdness of the transfer portal and everything happening the way it did last year with him with him taking that job, there was a lot of guys on that roster rolling into that season that he had literally only known for two or three months by the time he was trying to game plan and put together a game plan for for each of those weekend updates. So CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Absolutely. Greg: Maybe Belichick's figure something out north yeah. Hey, I I'm on the North Carolina team total under, so that is not looking swell at the moment. ⁓ but maybe Belichick is who we think he is and maybe he's got that team headed in the right direction. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: So I will try not to take too much time. I'm gonna run through really quickly the the wins and the losses and why the teams lost. ⁓ I will put it back out there, some of you who are just tuning in. I did not pick a single favorite in any of my what was it, eight picks. I played every game, I put my money behind every game. ⁓ first game I had UNC plus seven and a half. They went outright 15 to 10, also under 48. ⁓ San Jose State, I took plus thirty-nine against USC. They covered that. The final score ended up being 42 to 26. ⁓ North Dakota State, I think I surprised a few people with that pick. I took the under 48, ended up being 33 to 7, so we pulled that out. New Mexico State, FSU, sorry, Brian. ⁓ I was on the plus thirty-one side. Actually, somewhere I I did a small little teaser and bumped it up another seven points as well. Just to be cautious. ⁓ let's get into the losses. You know, you guys already see ⁓ where the wins were. ⁓ the losses were North Carolina State moneyline. I'm gonna talk about these individually briefly, like little little little caps. North Carolina State money line loss. Yeah, why would you take a money line? Okay. Sacramento state plus nine and a half. That loss should have been a win, and I'll explain to you why that should have been a win in the cover. Hawaii plus five and a half was a loss. Guys, I took Hawaii money line. I didn't take the points. ⁓ and they actually should have won that game outright. And I'll explain that here in a minute. So that's kind of where we're at. So let me jump into the first game. Sacramento State plus nine and a half. Eastern Michigan. The game ⁓ finished at twenty-nine to seventeen. Sacramento actually led this game as a plus nine and a half point dog. ⁓ in the second quarter, they were winning 10 to 7. Eastern Michigan explodes back on for a 21 point, ⁓ 21 points in that quarter, which created cushion, ultimately led to the loss. ⁓ the big difference was my quarterback for Sacramento, zero touchdown throws, one interception, sacked twice. Conklin was intercepted. Guys, here's the killer. When you take this team plus nine, I'll cover the points. Four there's three minutes and twenty eight seconds left in this game. Conklin was intercepted at EMU's twenty two yard line. That end of the game pretty much. I mean, let's say you run it out, ⁓ you get four you get down to fourth down, you take the three points, and you go back for an onside kick. If those three points hit, I cover this nine and a half spread. If you go back, miss the three points, go back an onside kick, you got a chance to pick it back up again. But both guys to me, to throw a pick at the twenty two yard line with three minutes and twenty eight seconds left. I think I was on the right right side of it. I think my model was correct. It was moving in the right direction. Shit happens, right? And I think it happened in this number. ⁓ let's go to the next game. North Carolina State money line. Probably the worst bet I'll make all year. ⁓ my model and I went back and forth, disagreed, agreed, talked to each other in and out of it. ⁓ the huge difference in this game was North Carolina State didn't just lose, they were dominated. Four hundred and thirteen yards to a hundred and sixty eight yards. CJ Bailey was terrible. Eighty-four yards, guys, and one interception and a fumble. You can't win games that way. It's not just not gonna happen. as we dive to like getting into the next few ⁓ cast, I I made my model take every loss that I took today or took yesterday and why it lost. And started cumulating for what could have been changed, what do we miss? I really missed ⁓ is it pronounced Pro Bola? Pre bola? I really underestimated this kid. And I think that was my biggest point in in this whole thing here. So kid was nine for eleven, one fifty five in yards, two ⁓ touchdown passes. He accounted for three touchdowns and consistently created problems with his legs. The kid was great, guys. ⁓ so I underst underestimated the quarterback. ⁓ the ability for ⁓ Virginia's ability to dominate the trenches. Bailey's performance destroyed North Carolina. ⁓ and even my model said bad model read, my apologies. You know, we both were on the same side. So moving on to the next one. Then we'll only got one more left. over fifty-six in the Memphis and UNLV game. Guys, the game started off zero to zero in the first quarter. at the end of the first quarter. Greg: Hey Chad, that's how all games start. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Dude, I'm tomorrow at the end of the quarter, it was still zero to zero. When you got a under when you got a ⁓ over bet, that's a problem. dipshot. That was the first one excited for me. Greg: Bri Brian hit an under that started ten ten of the first quarter. Brian: Yeah, that was that was a sweat. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: ⁓ it was a sweat for sure. I was sitting at the bar at Seapalms on the island with a guy, and me and him both had money on the game. ⁓ what happened was UNLV finally broke through in the second. They were up fourteen to seven at halftime. Memphis then exploded 17 points in the third quarter. ⁓ after three quarters, we had forty-five points. There was just no coming back from it, guys. Memphis scored the final 13 points of the game and shut UNV out of the fourth. Here's how the stats looked. Q1, zero points, quarter two, twenty-one points, quarter three, twenty-four points, and quarter four, three points. So, you know, whatever. ⁓ Hawaii. I still back me saying I took Hawaii moneyline and I didn't take the plus in five and a half. And let me tell you why. Hawaii was losing this game, guys, 23-7. They mounted a crazy ass comeback. ⁓ in the fourth quarter. Hawaii scored twenty unanswered points with four o six remaining. Hawaii actually led this game as a five and a half point underdog with four minutes left in the fourth. Twenty-seven to three was the score, guys. So at the moment, you're you're winning straight out with a money line dog. quarterback Micah for Hawaii was outstanding. You know, 30 for 50, 269, but What ended happening was Micah scored the go ahead touchdown with one forty one minute remaining. Then Hawaii suffered a devastating turnover that pretty much ⁓ swung the game to a three point Stanford, ten point win. At this point it just the game just went downhill. It seems like once we got past gosh, I wanna say going to the third, going into the fourth quarter. ⁓ in a nutshell for this game. There was no excuses. ⁓ Hawaii had the tiff ticket covered with four minutes left and blew it. So I would still play it the same way. I had five wins, four losses. I had some undersprinkled in there, but the losses I took, two of them I would still play the exact same way, and that would be Hawaiian ⁓ sack state. Greg: Agreed. Yeah, that and that's kind of the way I try to look at things is as I went back and I I went back and rewatched ⁓ what we put out there just to kind of get a feel for now knowing the outcomes. And again, I think all the information was sound. I went back and re-looked at the way the information, the data my model split out. Look, I was one and two. You can't sugarcoat that. Nobody likes to lose the the first weekend of the year. It is what it is. But out of the sixteen possible outcomes of sides and totals, the model was ten and six. I just picked the wrong couple of things to throw down action on. And two of the ones that we did miss on with the model, ⁓ North Carolina game TCU, that happened in Ireland. That's a fluke. We all ⁓ the Ireland stuff's weird every year, so I'm not gonna worry about that. And then the NC State Virginia game was just so far off that I don't even think you can tweak a model based on that. I don't think NC State can be that bad. I don't think Virginia can be that good. So truth be told, I'm pretty darn happy with w how that weekend played out, like I said, with With the information we put together, the analytics we did, I think all three of us were pretty well on point with the analysis. I think the info we gave people, the leans were solid. Again, I I have walked away from some opening weekends feeling like, holy shit, I may not know anything about college football. I went to bed last night, even on a losing record, feeling pretty strong about where things set up moving forward. So not at all disappointed. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. It'll look good. Yep. Greg: ⁓ I I hate taking a loss, but but that is what it is. But overall I I I am not not disappointed with the model, not disappointed with the the analytics and the and the trends that we all were putting out there. ⁓ and then we had a we had our hero bail us all out and go five and one. So Brian's recap will be fun. So we save the best for last. B tell us tell us what it feels like to be a stud. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Here I Brian: Five and one was a was a good week, but as we know that can easily change next week. So let's don't get too carried away with it. If I can ⁓ keep that going, it'll be awesome. ⁓ first two I had was was the ⁓ under 24 and a half of the first half, and that TCU North Carolina game, that was a sweat for sure. When it was twenty points in the first quarter, and then they got a safety in the second quarter. ⁓ my gosh. But that pulled out. So yeah, the rain helped big time. I was looking for that rain earlier in the game when I was looking at the forecast, but it got it finally helped out. ⁓ other good one I liked that I hit was the Montana State Utah Tech under 57. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah it was. Lot of rain too. Brian: Seven and a half. Montana State beat them 54 to nothing. So that usually works out good when that happens. I'll say this, I usually don't put a whole lot of stock in week zero and week one ball games. I mean, they're still filling each other out. The teams have spent the whole summer getting ready to to go against that team. So I'm more s I put more stock in it as we go along. Lou Holtz was one of the ones that always used said teams improve more from their first game to their second game is gonna be your biggest improvement of the season. So and a r a recap of that, you know, last year Indiana beat old Dominion twenty 27 to 14 and had a 91-yard punt return, and I think their season turned out pretty well. So let's don't let's don't get carried away with what we saw in week one. But Virginia I felt like was the most impressive team. North Carolina State could not block them at all. And Virginia was able to just run the ball at will. You do that, it's hard to beat. ⁓ TCU was the most concerning team to me. They just their offense did not look good. They came out first running the ball pretty well, and then once CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. Brian: North Carolina shut that run down, which North Carolina's defensive line looked pretty impressive. And ⁓ once they shut that run down, that was ⁓ that was the end of that for them. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Brian, I wanna add to that. I was sitting there and I watched the first six plays from TCU and they were all runs. And I looked to the guy next to me and I was like, This is doesn't TCU throw fifty yard bombs like every play? And he and I kept watching it, and it's like it's either the quarterback has an injury that no one knows about, because that is not a TCU game plan, scheme, offensive coordinator. play call. I mean, they were more conc okay with just running the ball and like almost getting the hell out of there. Brian: Yeah, that was something we highlighted, you know, when we were talking about our bets that we did hit on that ⁓ they changed offensive schemes this year and it was gonna be a whole lot slower than what we're used to seeing with TCU and that sure played out. one little thing we we can remember moving forward is ⁓ the last five international games have been the underdogs were four and one and they and the unders went four-and-one. So let's keep that knowing that going forward. When you go to Ireland, it's usually gonna be an underdog and an under. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Slow boy. It's always under. Yeah, yeah. Brian: And then y'all ⁓ y'all gonna have to keep me from betting on FSU. Good lord mighty. Which I would probably still bet that again. There's no way we shouldn't have scored eighteen and a half points in in in the ⁓ first half ⁓ against New Mexico State. But we'll see what happens. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: You could I almost sent you a screenshot of the actual the model and what it gave me and all the points of why not to take and why you should take. And I almost sent it to you but I like, I don't know him that well yet, so I don't know how he's gonna take it. So I just like fucking let it ride because what if I talked you out of the fucking winner? Brian: I it is what it it is what it is. FSU gets me every time and we'll see what Greg: Well, the the good news is ⁓ on two fronts, it's it's a long damn season, and all three of us have been doing this a long damn time. So we ain't gotta freak out, we ain't gotta overreact anything, but I will say this: overreaction is par for the course for normal people in the sports gambling space. So next weekend in particular, you might see some inflated or deflated lines just based on what some people think they may have gleaned from this past weekend. So don't be one of those who overreacts, be one of those who might can take advantage of an overreaction 'cause there might be some spots next weekend. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: That's value. That gives people like us three value in the game, in the line, and we exploit it. That's why we're doing this. Greg: So i if if for some reason and I haven't even looked at anything yet, but if for some reason I come back to y'all with an N C state play again, I'm just telling y'all, I don't think they could be that bad. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Fuck you. I think they're that bad. I really do. Brian: Well what a good thing for them is they don't play again 'til September eleventh, so they got a they got some time to fix it. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: That's even worse. Greg: All right, Brian, you got anything in particular you've ⁓ you've noticed or you're looking into before we roll into roll into getting ready for week one? Brian: Nah, I'm I mean I've been looking at what's on what's on tap. I mean the games start on Thursday, so I got a lot to look at and ⁓ figure out what we're gonna where I'm gonna go with ne going next week. I mean I got a couple of games that I'm looking into pretty hard that I feel like I'm gonna put something on, but ⁓ got a couple of little things I wanna dig into a little more. Greg: I understood. Well we'll all get together Wednesday evening and ⁓ put our stuff out there for everybody. Chad, what ⁓ what you wanna leave us with for we before we close up shop and get ready for week one? CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: I'm not looking ahead right now. ⁓ I won't look at it it I won't look at the lines until maybe Wednesday night and I'll start getting all the electronics involved and all the websites and shit. But honestly, what we have here right now and what's going and we all bring such different perspectives. It's a very good blend. It's a good mesh. ⁓ you got a five and one, you've got a five and four. Greg: I had neither. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Greg, you're just sometimes gonna have a bad week. I'm sure I'm gonna go 0 4 one week. ⁓ but we know what the fuck we're talking about. We've all been gambling for twenty plus years. We know what to look for. And so ⁓ I'm excited about this. I'm excited to make ⁓ new friendships and and keep this stuff moving forward. So I I do wanna start getting some of the ⁓ once we get subscribers and all that, get those guys involved. Greg: Yeah, I I I y'all y'all both know this. ⁓ anybody that might be tuning in doesn't I I used to play a whole lot of golf and the the worst thing you can do in golf is hit a shot called a shank. But the crazy thing is to shank a golf ball, you actually have to do a lot right. Well, we shanked our moneyline parlay, and not a single one of us could pick just a damn winner of a football game. But I bet you this, you gotta do a lot of things right to shank it. We had a lot of good analytics into that. I bet you we don't go ⁓ and three on the money line parlay again. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: No, no. And I like the teaser aspects. ⁓ and again, guys, y'all think I'm crazy as hell for putting Hawaii, not taking the points, but I I would still do it again, guys. They lost it within the last three minutes. I still would do it. Greg: ⁓ yeah, Hawaii should have won that game. And it damn sure should have covered the five and a half I had. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah. For sure. I felt bad for Greg: The Stanford kid the sk the Stanford kid tried to bail me out, dude. He had a split second where he goes, I can take a knee here and end this game the right way, and I was sitting there, please do it. Brian: Stanford Stanford's got a different monster coming into Stanford this week, so we'll see what they can do with that. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, we'll see. Greg: Yeah, you're a big cane fan. I you'll be excited for that one. Brian: Yeah. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: But I enjoyed it guys. I enjoyed all the prep we did. ⁓ the guy for people that are watching this, we didn't just all of a sudden one second jump on and start giving picks. We are like spending hours with the research, running models, simulations. We're talking behind the scenes. We have a text message that hasn't stopped for four days. You know, it's just keep scrolling with ideas and shit. So don't think we're ⁓ some little sleps up here just putting What we think we're we're we're putting our money where our mouth is. Greg: And and I'll put this out there too, guys. Anybody that happens to be hearing this information, look, you you obviously are listening to us for a reason. You got some sort of connection to one, if not two or three of us. If you want us to talk about a particular game, you want our thoughts on something, it text us, hit us up on social media, get in the YouTube comments and let us know. We are we are happy to engage. We are we are doing this because we enjoy it, but we are also doing this trying to trying to gain a following and trying to help people. I I mean we have all had wins and losses and I I I've never met anybody that wants to help give more money to the book. We want to help some of you guys bring something home from the book when you come. So i i if we could yeah, if if you if you like certain segments, you're looking for certain stylistic things, any any things you guys want us to address, just let us know. We're we're here to try to help. That's it. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Yeah, we wanna bring it home. I would love for someone to come in and be like, hey, I'm really looking at this game, I'm torn, and all three of us take it and run it through our models and our sims and come up with a consensus and see what it does for that person. Hell it might convince us to put it in our fucking play. Greg: Yeah, no doubt. Well it also might convince us to bring a new capper to the show if we find somebody worthwhile. I'm always hey Chad this ain't hey, this ain't no different than any other business, brother. I'm always recruiting talent. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Well, you have an op you have an open seat right here. I know you are. Greg: All right, guys. Well, that wraps it up for weekend, ⁓ week zero, I guess technically. We'll get to week one next week. We will be out here ⁓ Wednesday night, ⁓ giving you guys the information and hopefully a bunch of winners to roll into next Saturday. Appreciate you guys tagging along. Brian, Chad, it was absolutely a blast hanging out with you guys virtually and via text as the games are going on. Look forward to doing this all year long. And ⁓ I got a pretty good feeling that that 60, 61% clip we're at right now. I think that's a good solid number for us to maintain throughout the course of the year. So That'll wrap it up for this weekend, guys. We'll see y'all Wednesday night. God bless. Brian: So Wednesday. CHAD WINS GREG LOSES: Good luck, everybody.