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NFL Divisional Playoffs Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
1:26
Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:30
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Moment, Chief content Officer of the Action Network.
1:34
Speaker 1: It is Tuesday. We are heading into the divisional round
1:38
Speaker 1: of the NFL Playoffs. A lot of people would say
1:42
Speaker 1: this is the best sports weekend of the year. You
1:44
Speaker 1: get two amazing games on Saturday, two amazing games on Sunday. Uh.
1:49
Speaker 1: It is truly a remarkable experience to just bathe and
1:52
Speaker 1: all that football excellence. I am joined as always by
1:57
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my Hadre professional better Simon Hunter.
2:04
Speaker 1: Thank god we won moning this weekend chat because as
2:06
Speaker 1: an Eagles fan, only ship to that that weekend kind
2:09
Speaker 1: of suck. But what did you tell me? What did
2:12
Speaker 1: you tell me the other day? I'm like, I just
2:15
Speaker 1: don't like the Eagles in this game. And when that
2:18
Speaker 1: game got down to seven and a half and seven,
2:21
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's even worse. I don't know why we
2:23
Speaker 1: would even discuss it. You're like that the courage of
2:26
Speaker 1: your convictions. So it was a very interesting weekend. We
2:30
Speaker 1: have a lot to discuss and we're gonna get to
2:32
Speaker 1: a lot on the show. We're gonna talk about all
2:34
Speaker 1: four games. It's not like we're gonna narrow down like
2:37
Speaker 1: we love everything on the board. We're gonna have a
2:39
Speaker 1: conversation about everything on the board. We will narrow down,
2:42
Speaker 1: like from sides and totals, where our five faves are
2:45
Speaker 1: going to be, and we'll dig in a little bit
2:47
Speaker 1: deeper on Thursday and get get down to those. Reminder,
2:50
Speaker 1: download the Action Network Gap. It's free, it's award winning.
2:52
Speaker 1: You can track everything we're doing. You can track what
2:54
Speaker 1: we're going to ultimately pick in the faves five handle
3:00
Speaker 1: in the Action Network. Just follow it. Look for the phase. Five.
3:03
Speaker 1: Were three and two this past week. Lost on the
3:06
Speaker 1: Eagles and the Patriots. We won on the Niners, Bengals
3:14
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. We did exactly what we do every year.
3:17
Speaker 1: We're just a three and two podcasts. We live the dream.
3:20
Speaker 1: That's why. I mean, you are living on the beach,
3:21
Speaker 1: retired somewhere, honest to God, somehow we always just get there.
3:26
Speaker 1: That is the total dream. People don't understand. That is
3:28
Speaker 1: literally the dream. You can quit your day job right now,
3:31
Speaker 1: if you can just go three and two every weekend.
3:34
Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot on the podcast. There
3:36
Speaker 1: are very few things I admire more or lend more
3:42
Speaker 1: credence to then people whose success comes from the grind, right,
3:48
Speaker 1: the people who like they're doing the work, they're succeeding
3:52
Speaker 1: because of the quality of that work, and they're consistent
3:56
Speaker 1: and sometimes it's sexy, sometimes it's not. I'm not sing
4:00
Speaker 1: I don't admire or respect the people who blow up
4:03
Speaker 1: and are supernovas. I think that's awesome too. But for me,
4:07
Speaker 1: and this goes to like how we build our team,
4:10
Speaker 1: to the people we hire, to the company we're building,
4:13
Speaker 1: Like I just like people who fucking grind and our
4:17
Speaker 1: winners from that in every aspect. I love the fucking grind.
4:21
Speaker 1: But speaking of the grind, can we just get right
4:22
Speaker 1: into it? I'm dying to hear from our guy, Matt Mitchell,
4:25
Speaker 1: I just got, I got. We keep saying we gotta
4:27
Speaker 1: save it for the show. Matt Mitchell had the greatest
4:29
Speaker 1: let me say that, Matt Mitchell hass of his life.
4:32
Speaker 1: As we know, that's a huge Bills fan very specifically
4:36
Speaker 1: set up a wonderful evening for himself. Matt is a
4:38
Speaker 1: huge anti Cliff Kingsbury. One of the best videos we've
4:41
Speaker 1: done a couple of years ago was Matt Mitchell just
4:43
Speaker 1: going off on Cliff Kingsbury. He reached weeded it this morning, Matt,
4:46
Speaker 1: I need you to set every detail of this scene
4:48
Speaker 1: because you and I talked about it the other day.
4:50
Speaker 1: I think people are really gonna enjoy it well. As
4:53
Speaker 1: you know. I've got two small children. We've got a
4:56
Speaker 1: four and a half year old and two month old.
4:58
Speaker 1: The dominant every asked back to my personal professional life,
5:01
Speaker 1: but the bill's got to play a primetime playoff game.
5:05
Speaker 1: Very rare, got very excited, So I set up a
5:08
Speaker 1: whole kind of sexy evening for myself in party of one.
5:11
Speaker 1: Got the lobat Blues chilling in the snow bank outside
5:15
Speaker 1: where they start forming the ice crystals. I went out
5:17
Speaker 1: and got twenty five the largest wings in the city
5:20
Speaker 1: of Milwaukee, got the game ready to go, got the
5:23
Speaker 1: kids down just before kick off, I sit down, get
5:27
Speaker 1: the little TV trail like a fifties sitcom, and I
5:30
Speaker 1: took out the box of surgical bloves that I took
5:33
Speaker 1: from my daughter's delivery room. Which was born. I put
5:37
Speaker 1: on the gloves like a serial killer, every single one
5:41
Speaker 1: of those wings. I drink every single one of those beers,
5:45
Speaker 1: and I watched the NFL's first perfect game unfold. It
5:51
Speaker 1: was almost pornographic, the nature of that beat down, the
5:55
Speaker 1: Bills doing every single thing that they wanted to do.
5:58
Speaker 1: I told my wife I might never eat or drinking
6:00
Speaker 1: a bat again, because I'll just be chasing the high
6:04
Speaker 1: of that experience. I'm so jaded and black and hollowed
6:07
Speaker 1: out inside that I can't imagine that Bill's winning a
6:10
Speaker 1: super Bowl, So right now, I don't know how it
6:13
Speaker 1: gets a lot better than that short of winning a
6:15
Speaker 1: super Bowl. That's a member. They'll stay warm in my
6:17
Speaker 1: heart forever. My favorite part of that story is the
6:21
Speaker 1: surgical gloves. Saucy foods stay in my fingers forever. Even
6:27
Speaker 1: if I wash, my answer can never seem to get
6:28
Speaker 1: the smell out, which just drives me crazy crazy from hunger.
6:32
Speaker 1: I started wearing gloves a little while ago to try
6:34
Speaker 1: to just kind of save a couple of steps. Plus
6:36
Speaker 1: then I don't get my gross handle over the furniture,
6:39
Speaker 1: and then when you're done, you just kind of unsnap
6:41
Speaker 1: them pretending you just finished taking a gall bladder out
6:43
Speaker 1: and boone you thrown away. There there goes all your
6:45
Speaker 1: problems as someone that did bet on the Patriots like
6:48
Speaker 1: an idiot, like Magic said, it's arguably when the best
6:51
Speaker 1: performances we ever seen it. To me, the only other
6:53
Speaker 1: one I can think of the tops that is the
6:55
Speaker 1: Mahomes come back against Houston. They were down twenty one nothing.
6:58
Speaker 1: He put points and I don't even think I think
7:01
Speaker 1: it was less than three minutes. So the fact that
7:04
Speaker 1: Josh Allen did that to Belichick, I think is just
7:08
Speaker 1: that's even more of a reason that the Bills fans
7:10
Speaker 1: were just losing their minds because we all agree he's
7:13
Speaker 1: the greatest coach ever and his specialties defense and Josh
7:17
Speaker 1: Allen was playing at that highball level. It did not
7:19
Speaker 1: matter what they were thrown at him, what what kind
7:21
Speaker 1: of blitz package, what kind of zone they're running. That
7:24
Speaker 1: was That was incredible. And now let's get to the
7:26
Speaker 1: second part that the best part. Cliff, I would consider
7:29
Speaker 1: myself one of, you know, the leading researchers. I'm on
7:33
Speaker 1: the cutting edge of Hayden Cliff Kingsbury have for years
7:37
Speaker 1: as a big college football gambler. I love, love, and
7:41
Speaker 1: deeply respect Cliff Kingsbury. As a player, I'm old enough
7:44
Speaker 1: to have played in the college football fantasy league in
7:47
Speaker 1: which Cliff Kingsbury, the quarterback wanted for me. I think
7:50
Speaker 1: that was oh too. But as a coach, he's just
7:53
Speaker 1: been all sizzle, no steak. Took over a Texas Tech.
7:58
Speaker 1: He's great at finding college quarterback he just can't do
8:01
Speaker 1: anything with them. But he's the one that gave America
8:03
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. He had Patrick Mahomes like. He was good
8:07
Speaker 1: at finding these guys, and they're just doing nothing with them.
8:10
Speaker 1: And he always ends his seasons sliding into the abyss
8:15
Speaker 1: and it seems like nobody was noticing this. He left
8:17
Speaker 1: Texas Tech worse than he found it and gets fired.
8:22
Speaker 1: The Arizona Cardinals say this is just the kind of
8:24
Speaker 1: guy we need. They bring him in, and all he's
8:28
Speaker 1: done is exactly what he's always done. It's ending every
8:31
Speaker 1: season once he's you know, people have film on him,
8:34
Speaker 1: other teams adjust, he's incapable of adjusting. I've done this
8:37
Speaker 1: ran a million times. But after Halloween every year, that
8:40
Speaker 1: against Cliff Kingsbury because it's there's no there's no season
8:44
Speaker 1: since which he has not done it. Does it every
8:47
Speaker 1: single year with no exceptions. And to to have been
8:50
Speaker 1: able to fade him this entire second half has been
8:53
Speaker 1: so much fun. And then just topping it off with
8:56
Speaker 1: warning everybody that this is gonna happen, and then he
9:00
Speaker 1: just he has one of I go from the Bills,
9:01
Speaker 1: one of the best opposite performances of NFL history to
9:05
Speaker 1: one of the worst playoffs performances in terms of yards
9:08
Speaker 1: per play. I believe ever in the NFL postseason. It
9:11
Speaker 1: just doesn't get me better than that. It's so interesting
9:15
Speaker 1: because I do think there is a little bit to
9:16
Speaker 1: unpack here that if we if we pulled back the
9:20
Speaker 1: lens and look at sixty ft, the Rams Cardinals game
9:24
Speaker 1: and the Bengals Raiders game book ended two interesting trends. Simon,
9:30
Speaker 1: you and I were both on the opposite side of
9:33
Speaker 1: and we stuck to our convictions. Short underdogs in the
9:37
Speaker 1: NFL playoffs over the past five years have won it
9:41
Speaker 1: like a sixty pc clip. So the money moved on
9:45
Speaker 1: the Raiders from five and a half down to four
9:47
Speaker 1: and a half. The money moved on the Rams from
9:51
Speaker 1: from the Cardinals from four and a half down to
9:53
Speaker 1: three and a half. You and I love the Bengals.
9:55
Speaker 1: You and I liked the Rams. We didn't really love
9:58
Speaker 1: either side in the Rams Cardinals, but we with the
10:00
Speaker 1: Rams a little bit more, even though every metric said
10:04
Speaker 1: take the Cardinals. A lot of it is because of
10:07
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury, Like we just think the guy's a joke
10:10
Speaker 1: of a coach and did not see a way in
10:12
Speaker 1: which he was going to be able to execute um.
10:16
Speaker 1: It's also why we bet James Conner anytime touchdown because
10:19
Speaker 1: that seemed like this out of everything, forget about the sides,
10:23
Speaker 1: that just seemed like the safest total. And again, I
10:27
Speaker 1: don't want to put myself out there. I'm not a
10:28
Speaker 1: huge donation guy. Again, I'll donate the charities, but I
10:32
Speaker 1: don't trust charities because who knows what these people do
10:34
Speaker 1: with the money. But the charities I do trust that
10:35
Speaker 1: do donate to that James Connor money. I donated it
10:38
Speaker 1: that they literally got one touchdown in that game. I
10:41
Speaker 1: didn't deserve that win, didn't deserve that money. The main
10:44
Speaker 1: reason I picked it, though, is I was on the Rams.
10:46
Speaker 1: I just like you just said, I believe in the Rams.
10:50
Speaker 1: But it was Stafford that's my whole pause, the guy,
10:53
Speaker 1: what do you do? Thirteen of seventeen completions? Like they
10:56
Speaker 1: were good, big completions. He played well, but I mean
10:59
Speaker 1: we could I've into that Arizona game, like you just said,
11:01
Speaker 1: that's that's cliff what they have. I think it was
11:04
Speaker 1: like minus one yards in the first half, something bizarre
11:06
Speaker 1: like that. Odell Beckham was out passing Kyler Murray midway
11:10
Speaker 1: through the third quarter. It was just a very bizarre games,
11:13
Speaker 1: Is that what it was. I remember my kids said
11:15
Speaker 1: it to me because when James Connor scored, I said
11:18
Speaker 1: to my kid, I'm going to bed, and he goes.
11:21
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham has more passing yards right now than Kyler Mury. Insane.
11:25
Speaker 1: So yeah, like, thank god for man Mitchell when we
11:29
Speaker 1: was a twenty nineteen man like you brought this to
11:32
Speaker 1: my attention at least because you knew him from college.
11:34
Speaker 1: I didn't really know it about him, Like I knew
11:36
Speaker 1: he produced these college quarterbacks that were studs. They never
11:39
Speaker 1: won anything. I mean that trend what burned us this year.
11:42
Speaker 1: We I think I faded them in the Bears game.
11:45
Speaker 1: I lost faith in the next week, I won fade
11:47
Speaker 1: them against Dallas lost because apparently Dallas or frauds too.
11:51
Speaker 1: And every week since then we faded m against Seattle,
11:53
Speaker 1: we faded like this past week. That trend, it's it's
11:56
Speaker 1: hard to knock it. At this point, it's been multiple,
11:59
Speaker 1: multiple years of this. I fall apart so Arizona. I
12:01
Speaker 1: don't know what they're gonna do, but I wouldn't want
12:04
Speaker 1: this guy coaching my team. He just continuously falls apart.
12:07
Speaker 1: It's really interesting. So I mentioned the Bengals, I mentioned
12:11
Speaker 1: the Rams. Uh, we were on the wrong side of
12:13
Speaker 1: the Patriots, but the wise guys moved the lines on
12:18
Speaker 1: the Raiders as dogs on the Eagles, as dogs on
12:24
Speaker 1: the Niners, as dogs on the Cardinals, as dogs on
12:28
Speaker 1: the Steelers, as dogs. You and I love the Chiefs,
12:32
Speaker 1: we liked the Rams, we love the Bengals. I liked
12:37
Speaker 1: the Bucks, and we both like the Niners. I mean,
12:40
Speaker 1: I know multiple groups, but one in particular, I want
12:43
Speaker 1: one in five. They got absolutely crushed this past weekend.
12:47
Speaker 1: They got crushed on that Eagles game, they got crushed
12:49
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh, and then they got crushed last night in
12:51
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. So again, pros lose, but more often that
12:55
Speaker 1: that's what people were saying, like, aren't you scared of
12:57
Speaker 1: this different line movement? And it's like, you know, you
13:00
Speaker 1: can talk. We can talk all the ship we want
13:01
Speaker 1: about that Eagles pick. There were a touchdown a two
13:04
Speaker 1: point conversion away from covering the eight and a half
13:06
Speaker 1: somehow after being down thirty one and nothing. So it's
13:08
Speaker 1: like it doesn't make sense. It doesn't always work out,
13:11
Speaker 1: but that's what I do. I play a system where, yeah,
13:14
Speaker 1: if I could build a model that predict Jalen Hurts
13:16
Speaker 1: throwing red zone interceptions, probably wouldn't be betting the Eagles.
13:20
Speaker 1: That's that's a big deal. But I can't. I just
13:23
Speaker 1: have to take the information I have at hand and
13:25
Speaker 1: try to make the best number out of it. So
13:27
Speaker 1: again that Cowboys game, Like if they would have won
13:29
Speaker 1: by a point, that's when I made the line. I
13:31
Speaker 1: made the Cowboys minus one, so they had a chance
13:34
Speaker 1: to do that. It didn't work out. I look like
13:36
Speaker 1: a genius because I took it fourty niners, but simply
13:38
Speaker 1: I just thought there was better value on the fourty niners.
13:40
Speaker 1: It wasn't that I thought that they were gonna actually
13:42
Speaker 1: win the game. So it's it's good for our futures again,
13:45
Speaker 1: we gave out one. They're down to tend to one
13:48
Speaker 1: playing Green Bay again. We'll dive that come in sleep.
13:50
Speaker 1: But this past weekend was kind of awesome where and
13:55
Speaker 1: kind of lucky that we went against what we usually do.
13:58
Speaker 1: We love taking dogs chat and we did in yeah
14:01
Speaker 1: when four and two or three and two on the show.
14:03
Speaker 1: So it's like we adjust. We don't always take the dogs.
14:06
Speaker 1: It's just I just prefer the dogs because I always
14:08
Speaker 1: think there's more value. My system doesn't skew that way.
14:11
Speaker 1: During the playoffs, we talked about I skew more towards
14:13
Speaker 1: the favorites just because home field such a big deal.
14:16
Speaker 1: What do we see home field advantage teams from five
14:18
Speaker 1: and one at home? The only win on the road
14:20
Speaker 1: was the wonderdog we gave out on the money line,
14:22
Speaker 1: the for Niners. As much as I admire professionalism and
14:26
Speaker 1: people that grind, I also love people who are intellectually flexible,
14:33
Speaker 1: meaning you don't just say it's going to be this
14:36
Speaker 1: way and this is the way it's going to be.
14:38
Speaker 1: You look at everything, you adjust to the entirety of
14:42
Speaker 1: the landscape, and you make your decision based on that.
14:44
Speaker 1: Playoffs different season. We don't just blindly Like as much
14:48
Speaker 1: as I love to fade the public, we don't just
14:50
Speaker 1: blindly do that. You can't. That's not sustainable when it
14:53
Speaker 1: matches up by numbers. Me and try to talk about
14:55
Speaker 1: the time we like you, because usually we're gonna point
14:56
Speaker 1: or to a value when we're fade in the public playoffs,
14:59
Speaker 1: the books a pretty smart. They don't really give away
15:01
Speaker 1: that much value. Like that's why that Tampa Bay movement
15:04
Speaker 1: was so surprising. Where I don't have the kind of
15:07
Speaker 1: money move a line like that. My group doesn't move
15:09
Speaker 1: lines like that. That's that's a big time, multiple groups
15:13
Speaker 1: moving that Eagles number again. The money and the bets
15:16
Speaker 1: were coming in on Tampa, and we talk all the time.
15:19
Speaker 1: Twenty dollar bet from a sharp is way different than
15:22
Speaker 1: two million dollars of public money. Like, the books won't
15:25
Speaker 1: move up number off two million public bets. A pro
15:28
Speaker 1: they trust comes in, he bets twenty k, and then
15:30
Speaker 1: it hits him again for another, you know, fifteen, another
15:32
Speaker 1: twenty k. An hour later. They moved at a whole
15:35
Speaker 1: point in a half so crazy movement. That's that's what's
15:38
Speaker 1: so fun about these playoff lines, is like we're talking
15:40
Speaker 1: this upcoming schedule. There's not gonna be too much movement
15:43
Speaker 1: this week like there was last week. These are these
15:45
Speaker 1: are a bunch of key numbers. We're gonna be talking
15:46
Speaker 1: about upcoming these numbers. So to me, it's gonna be
15:49
Speaker 1: not as violatile. But still trust your gut. I'm gonna
15:52
Speaker 1: be giving you info. I'll be giving you what guys
15:54
Speaker 1: we believe in and what teams we believe in. Chad
15:56
Speaker 1: trust has got on the Buccaneers worked out for the
15:58
Speaker 1: guy that was That was a smart move by him.
16:00
Speaker 1: I got sucked in. So that's the biggest thing. Take
16:02
Speaker 1: all the info, all the different shows you listened to,
16:05
Speaker 1: and trying to make your own judgment because it is
16:07
Speaker 1: it's the playoffs. It's like that forty Niners game is
16:10
Speaker 1: perfect example. It's all going perfect and all of a sudden,
16:12
Speaker 1: ship just hits the fan. Teams start feeling the pressure
16:15
Speaker 1: and they just started doing dumb ship. So that's why
16:17
Speaker 1: I try to get two people. Just trust your gut.
16:19
Speaker 1: I mean, it's all gonna it's all little bit of
16:21
Speaker 1: chaos come to the playoffs. Alright, enough talk, we're gonna
16:24
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Speaker 1: Hope and why or text hope and why in New
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Speaker 1: York called the Tennessee Red Line one eight hundred eight
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Speaker 1: eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit one eight
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler dot Net in West Virginia. All right, let's
18:46
Speaker 1: get to the games. Divisional weekend first game, Cincinnati Bengals
18:52
Speaker 1: at Tennessee Titans. Dude, Joe Joe Burrow is so fucking cool.
18:56
Speaker 1: I love that guy. There are three and a half
18:57
Speaker 1: point hunderdogs on the road at the number one seated
19:00
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans, and the total in this game is about
19:04
Speaker 1: forty seven. Um, we will talk about both. My first
19:08
Speaker 1: instinct on this, I don't have one, huh. I would
19:12
Speaker 1: say my gut would always say to me, take sensing
19:15
Speaker 1: the points. You're getting three and a half on a dog,
19:18
Speaker 1: very competitive offense. Who this Tennessee really have to make
19:21
Speaker 1: these stops on the defense against this kind of high
19:23
Speaker 1: powered offensive the Bengals. But luckily we have numbers and
19:27
Speaker 1: data and you can dive into this stuff as I better.
19:29
Speaker 1: I'm always looking for a little bit of advantage, and
19:31
Speaker 1: where I find my advantage is always on the d line,
19:32
Speaker 1: the offensive line. It's a place that's not sexy. People
19:35
Speaker 1: don't care about it, but to me, it's one of
19:37
Speaker 1: the most important areas of football, and I can I
19:38
Speaker 1: find a lot of value in that position. Looking at
19:41
Speaker 1: this game since he just lost their number one run
19:44
Speaker 1: defender at the middle on their d tackles. So when
19:46
Speaker 1: I look at this game and I throw the numbers in,
19:49
Speaker 1: people get bored by the numbers. That's why I tried
19:50
Speaker 1: to talk about numbers too much, because some of it
19:52
Speaker 1: doesn't even make sense. And you can make any numbers
19:55
Speaker 1: sound the way you wanted to to make whatever point
19:57
Speaker 1: you're trying to make sound right. But this is a
19:59
Speaker 1: big deal. This guy is their number one run stuffer
20:01
Speaker 1: and he is worth one point seven yards per game
20:04
Speaker 1: to that defense. That means every time now Derrick Henry
20:08
Speaker 1: is getting the ball, he's gonna be getting extra one
20:10
Speaker 1: and a half yards per carry this guy. Already the
20:13
Speaker 1: average is four yards. The five yards per carry Derrick Henry.
20:16
Speaker 1: So now you're telling me this guy is an average
20:18
Speaker 1: six yards per carrying this matchup. When I first saw
20:20
Speaker 1: this number, I really didn't get it because I thought
20:22
Speaker 1: it should just be three. We want to start diving
20:24
Speaker 1: into it. Holy sh it, there's a big advance for
20:27
Speaker 1: his Tennessee team. So that's why I'm hearing professionals. I'm
20:29
Speaker 1: seeing the pro money coming on Tennessee early right now.
20:32
Speaker 1: It's gonna bounce out a little because I know the
20:33
Speaker 1: public will come on Joe Burrow because they're like Chad,
20:36
Speaker 1: they like Joe. Joe is a cool dude. What are
20:39
Speaker 1: the thirty one years? First? When Cincinnati coaches going around
20:42
Speaker 1: to the different bars giving out game balls and ship
20:45
Speaker 1: it's like, awesome story. That's their super Bowl. I'm happy
20:49
Speaker 1: for you, Cincinnati, but you're you're going up against just
20:53
Speaker 1: the perfect storm here in the Tennessee team that is
20:56
Speaker 1: just proved just a true bruiser team that they're not
20:59
Speaker 1: going let tanneholl funked us up for them. They're gonna
21:02
Speaker 1: rely on Derrick kind of refresh legs. They've rested them
21:04
Speaker 1: for this whole point. It's just it's bad luck for
21:07
Speaker 1: the city Cincinnati team running into them. Because against the
21:10
Speaker 1: Bills or the Chiefs, I could see this offense kind
21:13
Speaker 1: of going toe to toell. Not with this kind of
21:16
Speaker 1: style that Tennessee plays. Tennessee just wears out your defense.
21:19
Speaker 1: They ball control. If Joe Burrow has one or two
21:22
Speaker 1: three and outs, it's over for Sincy. So I made
21:25
Speaker 1: this number four. I still think you're getting a good
21:27
Speaker 1: number if it hits four for Tennessee I would take
21:29
Speaker 1: a three and a half, but I'm cool with people waiting.
21:31
Speaker 1: You can you can wait and get the three. But
21:33
Speaker 1: I don't know what the public's gonna do this number.
21:35
Speaker 1: I can tell you professionals are gonna take Tennessee in
21:36
Speaker 1: the spot. Yeah, well, that that's what I was confused about,
21:40
Speaker 1: to be honest, because I saw the three and a
21:43
Speaker 1: half and I'm thinking to myself, there's no way the
21:46
Speaker 1: sports books would post this as three and a half
21:51
Speaker 1: unless they really really felt good about the Titans, because
21:56
Speaker 1: they know that the public is gonna come in and
22:00
Speaker 1: want to take the Bengals um and it they will,
22:04
Speaker 1: I think eventually on the half point. Right now, the
22:06
Speaker 1: money is on the Titans. The bets are on the Titans,
22:09
Speaker 1: but the discrepancy between the money and the bets is
22:13
Speaker 1: very large. Meaning of the money is on the Titans
22:17
Speaker 1: of the bets. And that's just because they opened it
22:19
Speaker 1: a two and a half, like they hung a bad
22:21
Speaker 1: line with Tennessee and they just got bet up real quick. Again.
22:24
Speaker 1: It's a soft open when they give out those lines
22:26
Speaker 1: like they're not gonna take k bets on that they're
22:29
Speaker 1: gonna maybe taking the top ten k. But That's probably
22:32
Speaker 1: why you're seeing the money screpancy because we talk all
22:34
Speaker 1: the time. The public use doesn't bet until Saturday nights
22:37
Speaker 1: Sunday morning, that's usually when they come in. So that
22:39
Speaker 1: makes sense that so much money is coming early on
22:41
Speaker 1: in Tennessee. Larry Ogan Joeb that's the defensive tackle who's out. Yeah.
22:50
Speaker 1: If I don't try to pronounce the name, there's a
22:51
Speaker 1: there's a reason. Thank you, Chap. Because I saw that.
22:54
Speaker 1: I was just like, maybe I can just get away
22:56
Speaker 1: of telling them about talking about the best D tackle.
22:58
Speaker 1: But yeah, he's Seriously, he's one of the most important
23:02
Speaker 1: players that since the defense. But no one cares because
23:04
Speaker 1: it's a D tackles. So people don't even know anything
23:06
Speaker 1: about this guy. I'm telling you to that run defense.
23:09
Speaker 1: He is huge this this Bengals team. Do we think
23:12
Speaker 1: there's a shot this line moves down? That's what I'm hoping.
23:15
Speaker 1: Like again, I took the two and a half, I
23:17
Speaker 1: took the three. I took the three and a half
23:18
Speaker 1: just in case it does go up to four, which
23:19
Speaker 1: is what I make this game. But I do think
23:22
Speaker 1: the public will come in. It's just they love Joe Burrow,
23:25
Speaker 1: they love what they've seen from this offense, and no
23:27
Speaker 1: one trusts Tennessee. There's a reason Tennessee is plus eight fifty.
23:31
Speaker 1: People just don't trust them that they're Super Bowl futures
23:33
Speaker 1: plus a fifty. No one just trusts the Tennessee Titans.
23:36
Speaker 1: So that's why I'm shocked this wasn't three. I assume
23:39
Speaker 1: they would make this game three. The fact that they
23:41
Speaker 1: open a two and a half and then a shot
23:42
Speaker 1: up to three and a half just shows you that
23:44
Speaker 1: they might have hung a bad line. They should have
23:46
Speaker 1: just opened that three. So we'll see. It could get
23:48
Speaker 1: the four, but I don't mind taking the three and
23:50
Speaker 1: a half because it is a key number. Here's another
23:53
Speaker 1: question that I think people would be interested to know.
23:56
Speaker 1: Do you think people should increase their wage, your size,
24:01
Speaker 1: their unit size in the playoffs when there are potentially
24:04
Speaker 1: fewer bets to make. If you're not an avid props
24:07
Speaker 1: player and things like that, you're basically just betting sides. Yeah.
24:11
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm all about small volume though, Like I
24:13
Speaker 1: I make sure I might make whatever, hundreds of bets
24:16
Speaker 1: in a weekend, but in actuality, it's like, you know,
24:20
Speaker 1: four or five so many weekends even to just really
24:24
Speaker 1: large bets and then a bunch of other small bets
24:26
Speaker 1: just because I'm playing off the number. So what my
24:28
Speaker 1: advice to people would be is like, yeah, if you
24:31
Speaker 1: really think of a good read on it, I'm all
24:33
Speaker 1: about up in the units. But if you're only making
24:35
Speaker 1: three bets, yeah, you should be betting more than some
24:37
Speaker 1: of that's making fifteen different bets are doing their crazy
24:40
Speaker 1: all their different parlays all weekend. It's like if you're
24:43
Speaker 1: just bed straight, I always tell people up it. It's
24:45
Speaker 1: like if I go to casino, I'm doing a fun
24:47
Speaker 1: parlay of six teams, I might throw thirty bucks on that.
24:52
Speaker 1: If I'm making a serious bet on one side, it's
24:54
Speaker 1: like a couple of thousands. So that there's definitely difference
24:57
Speaker 1: where it's like you're mitigating your risk and how much
24:59
Speaker 1: you wagers. Uh yeah, I don't. I don't want to
25:01
Speaker 1: tell people how much money to bet, but I would
25:04
Speaker 1: say if if you're having a good run, like to
25:07
Speaker 1: start the playoffs, keep trusting your gut. Usually if you
25:09
Speaker 1: start good in the playoffs, it's gonna keep rolling because
25:11
Speaker 1: you have a good read on this field and the
25:12
Speaker 1: different teams. So yeah, if you're comfortable with it. Of course,
25:16
Speaker 1: up your up here betting percentage. I would never tell
25:19
Speaker 1: people to that less in the playoffs because playoffs is
25:23
Speaker 1: kind of it's easier. You're just more focused on a
25:25
Speaker 1: little more samples. Now there's not only as many games
25:27
Speaker 1: to get distracted by, but someone like me the regular
25:30
Speaker 1: seasons easier. It's like I find better value in their
25:32
Speaker 1: sixteen games rather than this weekend when there's four. So
25:35
Speaker 1: it is different for ever new person. San Francisco forty
25:38
Speaker 1: Niners at Green Bay Packers. The line open to four
25:42
Speaker 1: and a half, it's up to six. We saw Fred
25:45
Speaker 1: Warner injured at the end of that Cowboys game. We
25:47
Speaker 1: saw um Bosa injured in that Cowboys game. I'm a
25:51
Speaker 1: little surprised it's moved that much, and I wonder if
25:54
Speaker 1: that's because people are sort of waiting on the news
25:56
Speaker 1: we're seeing right now. The money is on Niners and
26:00
Speaker 1: the bets are on the Packers, and I would favor
26:04
Speaker 1: the Niners here, of course, and that was the That
26:07
Speaker 1: was my first instinct to look at that and set
26:09
Speaker 1: up perfect This was our dream scenario a little bit
26:12
Speaker 1: where we talked about taking this fort nwhitstea because they're
26:14
Speaker 1: Si good at running the ball. Green Bay is one
26:16
Speaker 1: of the worst run teams in all football. And then
26:19
Speaker 1: you know, if God willing, if we can get lucky
26:21
Speaker 1: the Rams, they would upset Tampa Bay. That's a great
26:25
Speaker 1: path for this four Niners team. Now they're going to play.
26:27
Speaker 1: It's so far against the Rams, a trip to make
26:29
Speaker 1: another Super Bowl Shanahan, whose own McVeigh. It all just
26:33
Speaker 1: set up for this fort in our team, and like
26:35
Speaker 1: I knew making that bet on the Super Bowl future,
26:37
Speaker 1: this was the most likely thing. Like no other team
26:39
Speaker 1: is gonna have an upset except maybe the forty Niners.
26:42
Speaker 1: They have to play Green Bay. To me, there's a
26:46
Speaker 1: lot of whispers chat that I'm hearing about Jimmy g
26:48
Speaker 1: being hurt, that he might have a shoulder injury and
26:51
Speaker 1: he might be playing in this game. And that's why
26:53
Speaker 1: that number is up to six now, and I don't
26:56
Speaker 1: want to bet it. I don't want to risk it
26:58
Speaker 1: taking the four nine side yet because I am on
27:01
Speaker 1: the point is obviously I believe in this team coming
27:02
Speaker 1: to the playoffs. I love this matchup for them. What's
27:06
Speaker 1: going on with Jimmy because that's why I think this
27:08
Speaker 1: line's movement it's I I feel like we already know
27:11
Speaker 1: Boast is gonna be back. Boss has concussion. If this
27:14
Speaker 1: is regular season, I don't think both are players. But
27:16
Speaker 1: because his playoffs, they're gonna find a way. Like we
27:18
Speaker 1: joke all the time, playoffs, it's just different. Anyone here
27:20
Speaker 1: of any COVID tests this past weekend or anyone testing positive. No,
27:24
Speaker 1: it's just the yes. Like it's the playoffs. So I
27:29
Speaker 1: think most of me back. I saw Fred tweeted out
27:31
Speaker 1: that he was good, like he would be back for
27:33
Speaker 1: the next game. He was jumping and celebrating on the
27:35
Speaker 1: sideline when they won it. Like, I don't know what
27:37
Speaker 1: his ankle injury was. He looked all right again, that
27:40
Speaker 1: could have been adrenaline or whatever it was. But those
27:42
Speaker 1: two I'm not worried about. It's the Jimmy g factor.
27:44
Speaker 1: If Jimmy is really out. I love Trey Lands. This
27:48
Speaker 1: is like Kaepernick two point oh. We saw Kaepernick did
27:50
Speaker 1: to this Green Bay team. It was like historical how
27:53
Speaker 1: good he was against Green Bay. We ran for like
27:55
Speaker 1: two hundred yards. But he's a rookie and he's making
27:58
Speaker 1: a start in Lambeau in the playoffs. I I can't
28:02
Speaker 1: risk it, so I can't bet this number. If anything,
28:05
Speaker 1: if you're worried about what I'm saying, maybe take green Bay.
28:08
Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna do it because I want to bet.
28:10
Speaker 1: I want to bet the fort Niners. I'm gonna hope
28:13
Speaker 1: these rumors are bullshit and that Jimmy's fine and everyone's
28:16
Speaker 1: heart at this point of the year, right like, who
28:18
Speaker 1: is not hurt? That's the whole old saying with football.
28:20
Speaker 1: Once you make the playoffs, everyone's hurt. So I'm I'm
28:24
Speaker 1: gonna bet obviously the four Niners, and I just put
28:26
Speaker 1: a live on the money line right now just in
28:29
Speaker 1: case the Jimmy news is BS and all of a sudden,
28:31
Speaker 1: this line drops back down to four and a half,
28:33
Speaker 1: because that makes more sense. I made this line three
28:35
Speaker 1: and a half. Three four and a half for what
28:38
Speaker 1: the public is gonna do with green Bay. That's the
28:41
Speaker 1: fair number green Bay. Every every reason in the world
28:44
Speaker 1: they're gonna they're gonna bet on. The public is looking
28:48
Speaker 1: at severy reason to bet on green Bay. They're rested,
28:51
Speaker 1: they have the m v P. They just assumed. You know,
28:54
Speaker 1: Jimmy g isn't playing cold. He's never played in cold temperatures.
28:57
Speaker 1: Like that before. How is that gonna affect him? It's
29:00
Speaker 1: it's pretty easy bet for the public on this one,
29:02
Speaker 1: so I'm not surprised at all. It's moved up to
29:04
Speaker 1: what it is just because they're going to protect the books,
29:07
Speaker 1: are gonna protect against Jimmy g move if if he
29:10
Speaker 1: is out, this number is probably gonna up to eight
29:12
Speaker 1: and a half, seven and a half. I would say
29:14
Speaker 1: to people, I'm not betting the Green Bay, but if
29:15
Speaker 1: you want to believe in that news, this is the
29:18
Speaker 1: time to take green Band. You can buy out later
29:19
Speaker 1: on if you want to. This is a really tricky
29:22
Speaker 1: game for me. When I saw this game open, I
29:26
Speaker 1: immediately thought the value was on Green Bay because what
29:32
Speaker 1: San Francisco had just done, They're going to get a
29:35
Speaker 1: little bit of a bounce. And then it got up
29:37
Speaker 1: to six and I'm like, well, that's that's too many
29:39
Speaker 1: fucking points. I mean, this is a great spot for Shanahan.
29:43
Speaker 1: Shanahan is really good on the road as an underdog,
29:47
Speaker 1: and he's owned the forty nine. I mean, his own
29:49
Speaker 1: Green Bay, like Rogers was that this year. Last year
29:52
Speaker 1: him when he beat them, he had one of the
29:54
Speaker 1: most incredible drive slash passes, the upset of for I
29:57
Speaker 1: understeem that just wasn't good or healthy at the time.
30:00
Speaker 1: This is just total animal we saw last week the
30:03
Speaker 1: forty nine when they're going, when they're when they're pass
30:06
Speaker 1: rush is on you and their offenses running the ball
30:08
Speaker 1: like they are. That's why we talked about it's so crazy.
30:11
Speaker 1: They were twenty one and went Super Bowl. They're one
30:12
Speaker 1: of the best teams of football, no doubt. So yeah,
30:16
Speaker 1: I'm I'm right there with you each other. That's why
30:18
Speaker 1: there has to be something. Call on Jimmy. This number,
30:20
Speaker 1: it's six is insane. Bros are gonna bet this number
30:22
Speaker 1: every time. We talk all the time about how keen
30:25
Speaker 1: of the number six is. At this point, it has
30:28
Speaker 1: to be something with Jimmy. That's that's That's what I'm
30:30
Speaker 1: gonna go off the rumors. Everything I'm hearing has to
30:32
Speaker 1: be something with Jimmy. So if we see tomorrow Thursday,
30:36
Speaker 1: Jimmy's practicing, he's all good, get in on, get on
30:39
Speaker 1: forty niners. If he misses practice today tomorrow the next day, yeah,
30:44
Speaker 1: we're we're probably gonn end up on that Green Bay number.
30:47
Speaker 1: What do you think in the total and a half
30:50
Speaker 1: again comes down to Jimmy. My first all was though,
30:52
Speaker 1: take the under if if the forty Niners gonna win
30:55
Speaker 1: this matchup. It's the same way they just dominated the Cowboys.
30:58
Speaker 1: You have to ball control, keep the offense off the
31:01
Speaker 1: field so they never get a rhythm. I mean, Dak
31:03
Speaker 1: had seven points head into that fourth quarter. Like, that's
31:06
Speaker 1: how they kind of beat them. They just never let
31:08
Speaker 1: them get into a rhythm to establish that offense. That's
31:10
Speaker 1: the only way you beat Rodgers. You have to get
31:12
Speaker 1: him off rhythm and run the ball. We saw that
31:15
Speaker 1: the Saints. What was the first game of the year.
31:18
Speaker 1: That's all the Saints did. They just got him at
31:19
Speaker 1: a rhythm. He was just never got comfortable in that game.
31:22
Speaker 1: That's how teams have to beat Rogers. You just have
31:24
Speaker 1: to keep him off the field and at a rhythm.
31:25
Speaker 1: So at this point I leaned towards the under just
31:28
Speaker 1: because that favors my my pick in the forty Niners
31:31
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers there
31:37
Speaker 1: are three point favorites. I am not a buyer on
31:40
Speaker 1: this Rams team at all. Peyton Man, who was interesting
31:43
Speaker 1: last night, he said, you win that first playoff game
31:48
Speaker 1: and the next week feels so much better because no
31:50
Speaker 1: one's asking you when are you going to win your
31:52
Speaker 1: first playoff game. But to me, the flip side is
31:55
Speaker 1: that the Bucks don't even because they have Brady, because
32:01
Speaker 1: they have Gronkowski, class or not. It's like this is
32:05
Speaker 1: a regular game for them and they're a very very
32:08
Speaker 1: short favorite at home as a team that has an
32:12
Speaker 1: offense that is just as explosive and a coaching staff
32:16
Speaker 1: to me that does not fear anything. And I do
32:20
Speaker 1: think that with the Rams there's a little more volatility
32:23
Speaker 1: and how they think about game planning. Yeah, this line
32:27
Speaker 1: stinks though, Like for everything you just said, I didn't
32:30
Speaker 1: go why this line wasn't higher. It's like, shouldn't this
32:32
Speaker 1: line be at least four maybe four and a half
32:34
Speaker 1: with Brady against Matthew Stafford in the playoffs. It's it's
32:39
Speaker 1: it's a little bizarre. I mean, so I made the
32:40
Speaker 1: sign three and a half. So yeah, Chad, you're right.
32:43
Speaker 1: For me, the value is towards Tampa. Um. I don't
32:47
Speaker 1: know I'm want to do with this one yet. I
32:48
Speaker 1: gotta like this one that this is the only game.
32:49
Speaker 1: I don't really have a stance on because I'm just
32:52
Speaker 1: so in love with the Rams right now. Like I'm
32:54
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit blinded by what they did last night,
32:56
Speaker 1: Like their d line going up against this Buccaneers team
33:00
Speaker 1: that might be down there, they're they're almost all Pro center.
33:03
Speaker 1: I think he made second team and a Pro Bowl
33:06
Speaker 1: left tackle. That's a big deal for this Bucan point
33:09
Speaker 1: that I forgot about right again, that's where I make
33:12
Speaker 1: my money, baby, in the trenches. So it's like, as
33:14
Speaker 1: soon as I saw those injuries in the Eagles game,
33:17
Speaker 1: we kind of saw that that they're the kind of
33:19
Speaker 1: turn that offense down. The Eagles have zero PASSI us.
33:21
Speaker 1: They're one of the worst front four rushing the QB
33:24
Speaker 1: and the football, and they got the time a decent
33:26
Speaker 1: amount of that game. Now you're giving me, you know,
33:29
Speaker 1: von Miller, you're getting You're giving me, uh Aaron Donald
33:33
Speaker 1: up the middle. It is I'm just looking at this
33:35
Speaker 1: on the matchup basis of the books. Know what they're
33:38
Speaker 1: doing here. They're giving you us a really soft line
33:40
Speaker 1: on this Buccaneers team. They're gonna let the professionals kind
33:42
Speaker 1: of side this line. I'll do the same. I want
33:45
Speaker 1: to take the Rams. I'm just hoping the public will
33:48
Speaker 1: come on on the simple fact that it's Brady versus
33:50
Speaker 1: Statthew Stafford. You're getting good value on Brady. It's minus three.
33:54
Speaker 1: Pump that line up a bit. I'll take the three
33:56
Speaker 1: and a half. But this is the right time where
33:57
Speaker 1: it's like, do I think Brady is gonna lose this game?
34:00
Speaker 1: It's kind of the same with the egos. It's like
34:01
Speaker 1: I maybe can see him cover the number. I just
34:03
Speaker 1: can't see Brady losing if you give the guy any
34:05
Speaker 1: type of time, end of the game, he's the guy
34:07
Speaker 1: you want. He just is the guy that always can
34:09
Speaker 1: drive the field and get the points when it's needed.
34:11
Speaker 1: So I'm hoping to get three and a half. Maybe
34:14
Speaker 1: I'll I'll change my view on Thursday. I want to
34:16
Speaker 1: take the Rams money line. But as we sit here today,
34:19
Speaker 1: I would just wait on this number and hopefully you
34:20
Speaker 1: get a better number because to me, there is value
34:22
Speaker 1: in the three. But I think you'll get a better number.
34:24
Speaker 1: What's the week goes along? Well, look, we're doing in
34:27
Speaker 1: one game here and we haven't Foxhold or Sigmon says.
34:32
Speaker 1: I mean we can do that stuff. It's just tough
34:34
Speaker 1: because it's four games. My favorite better right now as Tennessee. Like,
34:38
Speaker 1: so the number then we got a Signmon says it,
34:39
Speaker 1: because I also think that it's possible the number could
34:42
Speaker 1: go up. It's possible, so yeah we can. Simon says
34:45
Speaker 1: that one. So it says also because in the entire
34:59
Speaker 1: com station, the only game that I felt compelled to
35:02
Speaker 1: immediately bet when we were talking about it was Tennessee. Yeah,
35:06
Speaker 1: there's only four games. It's a little like more magnified.
35:09
Speaker 1: I don't think we'll be in the fox Hall until Thursday.
35:11
Speaker 1: It's very possible that we go into the Fox Hall
35:13
Speaker 1: on San Francisco. That's well, like I just like that
35:17
Speaker 1: was that was gonna be my favorite bed heading to
35:19
Speaker 1: this week because I just knew they were gonna be
35:20
Speaker 1: undervalid against the Spring Bay team. But I just need
35:23
Speaker 1: to see what the deals of the Jimmy. We're not
35:26
Speaker 1: talking about the total on that because I don't think
35:28
Speaker 1: I think the total was tied to sort of what
35:29
Speaker 1: we think of the side Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs.
35:34
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs two point favorites at home against the
35:40
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills, and this line has dropped percent of the
35:48
Speaker 1: money on the Buffalo Bills of the bets right now
35:54
Speaker 1: on the Kansas City Chiefs. You know you make me
35:57
Speaker 1: one shot. Two months ago promised our listress I wouldn't
36:01
Speaker 1: play the bill shout song until they won a playoff game.
36:05
Speaker 1: So here we go, the Bills. Make me keeping your
36:13
Speaker 1: hand something, throw your hand. I'm making it happen. Chad.
36:20
Speaker 1: You know what my deal is. I've said it three years.
36:22
Speaker 1: My rule of thumb in the playoffs is if Mahome
36:25
Speaker 1: is playing any other quarterback than Tom Brady, I always
36:28
Speaker 1: bet Patrick Mahomes. It is worked out swimmingly for me.
36:31
Speaker 1: I think the only time I haven't covered with him
36:33
Speaker 1: was the fucking Browns game where he got hurt and
36:37
Speaker 1: Chad hendykman they won. I don't think they covered that.
36:41
Speaker 1: Like I'm trying off the time I had remember it.
36:42
Speaker 1: But I honestly think he's covered every single game I've
36:45
Speaker 1: ever been on him in the playoffs, except when he
36:47
Speaker 1: plays against Tom Brady. He played against Tom brand the
36:50
Speaker 1: a FC Championship game he lost to him, but against
36:53
Speaker 1: Tom Brandon the Super Bowl, he lost to him. This
36:55
Speaker 1: ain't Tom Brady, It's Josh Allen. Josh Allen, do it
36:58
Speaker 1: bro slay the beat this is your second time around.
37:01
Speaker 1: It's really fucking hard to beat the same team twice
37:04
Speaker 1: in a year. That's why we see the divisional matchups.
37:06
Speaker 1: It's usually always split like that's just even when the
37:09
Speaker 1: teams aren't good, they usually split the divisional matchup because
37:11
Speaker 1: it's so hard to be the team twice in a year.
37:14
Speaker 1: The Bills, They've built their entire team for this Chiefs team.
37:18
Speaker 1: That's why I like, I've already talked to a couple
37:20
Speaker 1: of pros. They're all in on the Bills like that.
37:22
Speaker 1: That's not shock. You know how much, Chad you said,
37:24
Speaker 1: all the money's coming on the Bills. This is got
37:26
Speaker 1: what this Bilt team is built for. They lost to
37:28
Speaker 1: this chief team last year. They've been thinking about it
37:31
Speaker 1: all off season. That's why they smacked them when they
37:33
Speaker 1: played earlier this season. Do it if you believe in
37:36
Speaker 1: the Bills, If you think this is the Bills, yere,
37:39
Speaker 1: this is it. Like the Bills win this game. Going
37:42
Speaker 1: into last I would say last week the only team
37:45
Speaker 1: I had Tennessee as an underdog against was the Chiefs
37:48
Speaker 1: at home. I make the Bills minus one. Now they
37:50
Speaker 1: played Tennessee that I will have the Bill's favorite. So
37:54
Speaker 1: this is it. Like the Bills, they could be the
37:56
Speaker 1: best team of football right now. They have arguably the
37:58
Speaker 1: best all offense, most complete defense. I mean their team.
38:01
Speaker 1: Their defense has been great all season. Yeah, you can
38:03
Speaker 1: say they played an easy conference and who they really play.
38:07
Speaker 1: Even against good teams, their defense was really good. I
38:09
Speaker 1: just have to get it to this Chief's team. They've
38:11
Speaker 1: just been here so many times. Chad just said that
38:13
Speaker 1: number is down to two. I cannot take it. I
38:16
Speaker 1: can't not take this number under three. So I made
38:18
Speaker 1: this minus three. I'm taking the value Chad. He might
38:22
Speaker 1: be on the Bills. Man, Mitchell, Please don't hate me.
38:24
Speaker 1: It's just it's just business, my friend. How could I
38:26
Speaker 1: hate you for that? I only had one note. My
38:29
Speaker 1: only note was the Bill spent an entire offseason preparing
38:32
Speaker 1: themselves to play the Chiefs of the playoffs. You've covered
38:35
Speaker 1: it already. They decided every move to beat this team.
38:39
Speaker 1: That's exactly why they ran it up as much as
38:41
Speaker 1: they could in their last meeting. But it is very,
38:44
Speaker 1: very difficult to beat the same team, a quality opponent
38:48
Speaker 1: on the road twice in the same year. I think
38:50
Speaker 1: Buffalo will win. I would I bet my own money
38:53
Speaker 1: on that. But I'm I'm still right in the high
38:55
Speaker 1: of last week, which is probably the worst thing that
38:58
Speaker 1: could have happened in terms of this game. It's spend
39:00
Speaker 1: a whole week of everyone telling you you are the
39:03
Speaker 1: perfect football team. Definitely not what Buffalo wants to hear.
39:06
Speaker 1: So I'm really banking on the shame and anger of
39:10
Speaker 1: last season. Still those fires still burning, right, and you
39:13
Speaker 1: hit it on the head too. That perfect game, I
39:15
Speaker 1: would love that if we could find something in that labs.
39:17
Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna try to dive into it. Like again,
39:19
Speaker 1: it's never happened before, so there's nothing to go off
39:21
Speaker 1: of that. But when the last time a team played
39:23
Speaker 1: that flawless and then the following week just laid the
39:26
Speaker 1: negg because not that I remember the bill is doing
39:28
Speaker 1: it before, but it's like, I feel like this happens
39:31
Speaker 1: in the playoffs where team plays like that. Where the
39:33
Speaker 1: Chiefs they were pretty slappy. I mean, they were down
39:35
Speaker 1: seven nothing at Pittsburgh. All of a sudden, my Homes
39:38
Speaker 1: turned it on. It was twenty one to seven, and
39:40
Speaker 1: it's like they needed that. Maybe maybe they need a
39:42
Speaker 1: little bit of hit in the mouth that woke them
39:43
Speaker 1: up where like he just said, the Bills, hopefully they
39:46
Speaker 1: had that hunger because they're gonna be feeling damn good
39:48
Speaker 1: all week. They literally played a flawless game, So I
39:51
Speaker 1: feel like we're getting a good number based off that,
39:53
Speaker 1: like the public perception of they just played a flawless game.
39:57
Speaker 1: So I'm interure, you see what you gotta do. Chat
39:59
Speaker 1: you you want the chief you're on the Bills. The
40:01
Speaker 1: Chiefs have gotten better pretty much all season, and their
40:05
Speaker 1: offensive line has gotten better all season. Every single week
40:10
Speaker 1: people are trying to explain why their offense hasn't been
40:13
Speaker 1: as explosive. Their offense was pretty fucking explosive this past week,
40:18
Speaker 1: and we gets one of the best defenses in football
40:20
Speaker 1: against like a pass rush, not a great Russia, not
40:22
Speaker 1: a great rush defense, but a pass rush that is
40:26
Speaker 1: as good as it gets. Right, they were top ten
40:28
Speaker 1: against the past. They may have threw for found yards,
40:30
Speaker 1: yeah exactly. Um, you know, who knows if they were
40:35
Speaker 1: holding some tricks in the bag for the playoffs and
40:38
Speaker 1: sort of waiting like you know in Rocky when he's
40:41
Speaker 1: fighting right handed and then he unleashes the left hand. Um,
40:45
Speaker 1: or if it was just the way the matchups played out,
40:47
Speaker 1: and Mahomes was scrambling and so artistic in the pocket.
40:51
Speaker 1: But they looked really good too, and they got a
40:54
Speaker 1: run game. When McKinnon, I mean that guy, yeah, player
40:57
Speaker 1: with the number one. Yeah, you just think he looks
40:59
Speaker 1: to said when they have the number one, and he
41:01
Speaker 1: really does look fast as ship. At the end of
41:03
Speaker 1: the day, it comes down to this. Patrick Mahomes is
41:07
Speaker 1: a generational talent. He's been in the past two Super
41:10
Speaker 1: Bowls a m v P quarterback. He's better than Josh Allen.
41:14
Speaker 1: He's playing at home, and he's favored by less than
41:16
Speaker 1: a field goal. Like, let's not overthink this, right, if
41:20
Speaker 1: we have the same conversations last week about the Bengals
41:22
Speaker 1: and the Raiders, the Bengals are a better team, right
41:27
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, even if everything is even, the Chiefs should
41:30
Speaker 1: be favored by three at home. Now they're favored by two.
41:33
Speaker 1: I want the Bills to win. I do. I've got
41:36
Speaker 1: a big futures ticket on the Bills. I've got a
41:39
Speaker 1: big futures ticket on the on the Packers. I love
41:42
Speaker 1: to see the two of them meeting the Super Bowl together.
41:44
Speaker 1: I will probably bet on the Chiefs if only to
41:47
Speaker 1: have a slight hedge on on that future on that
41:50
Speaker 1: future ticket. Yeah, chief's minus two, it's gotta be Yeah,
41:54
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. It's just again the number is.
41:56
Speaker 1: Luckily the numbers do you back it up. But even
41:58
Speaker 1: if they kind of went against it, I probably would
42:00
Speaker 1: go against man numbers because what you just said, it's like,
42:02
Speaker 1: sometimes the numbers can't take you an account how great
42:05
Speaker 1: my homes is and we're gonna get burned events like
42:08
Speaker 1: we'll lose games with my homes again. Brady the greatest
42:11
Speaker 1: quarterback ever, what is it nine super Bowls? He's been
42:14
Speaker 1: to ten super Bowls. It's like we've never seen anything
42:17
Speaker 1: like it before. The odds of my homes duplicating it
42:19
Speaker 1: are probably less than two percent. But it's like, I
42:23
Speaker 1: maybe I'll fade him on the road next week against
42:25
Speaker 1: Tennessee when I'm getting a dog and getting a good
42:27
Speaker 1: number of Tennessee. But this week, like Chad just said,
42:29
Speaker 1: at home, he just does not lose there unless it's
42:33
Speaker 1: Tom Brady. So I'm gonna be taking my homes as
42:35
Speaker 1: well as that with that too. This is the kind
42:38
Speaker 1: of game, Um, what I do think it'll probably play
42:42
Speaker 1: against type the total is really high fifty four and
42:45
Speaker 1: a half. I'm actually on that over what I know,
42:50
Speaker 1: and like statistically I usually would go on the under.
42:54
Speaker 1: I just these two offenses. I just can't see either
42:56
Speaker 1: quarterback given a damn what the scores, They're just gonna
42:59
Speaker 1: be throwing the balls. So whether permitting, I think Stucky
43:02
Speaker 1: tweeted out it's like playoff total is this high or
43:05
Speaker 1: eight and one towards the under. The only over that's
43:08
Speaker 1: ever hit in the playoffs with above this number was
43:11
Speaker 1: the Chiefs first the Bills. So I'm I'm just looking
43:14
Speaker 1: at two offenses that I love, the O C of
43:17
Speaker 1: the Bills. I love Andy Reid and what he does
43:20
Speaker 1: with his offense. I mean again, the end of the
43:23
Speaker 1: first quarter was zero zero in that Chiefs game against
43:26
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh and went over by like two touchdowns or
43:29
Speaker 1: the three touchdowns. Maybe, like you just can't, I just
43:32
Speaker 1: can't bet these unders in these Chiefs kind of games.
43:34
Speaker 1: So I'll take an over in a match between two
43:37
Speaker 1: generational talents at quarterback. All right, Well, right now you
43:40
Speaker 1: and I are both leaning towards favorites. Kansas City minus two,
43:44
Speaker 1: Tennessee minus three and a half we're waiting to see
43:47
Speaker 1: what the wise guys do with the Bucks in the Rams,
43:50
Speaker 1: and if if we think it's a soft three and
43:53
Speaker 1: that the books will move it one way or the other.
43:55
Speaker 1: And if it gets to three and a half, will
43:57
Speaker 1: take the Rams. If it gets to two and a half,
43:58
Speaker 1: will take the Bucks, and then a Francisco. We like
44:01
Speaker 1: the Niners. We think six is a big number to take.
44:03
Speaker 1: We're a little worried about some rumors, so we're gonna
44:06
Speaker 1: give it maybe another twenty four hours or so before
44:08
Speaker 1: we fully dive in. But come Thursday, we'll have a
44:11
Speaker 1: lot more answers. When all hope is lost, all that's
44:15
Speaker 1: left is relief. Well, let's play roulette. Screw roulette. Last
44:23
Speaker 1: week I had the Bengals minus four and a half.
44:26
Speaker 1: You have the Niners plus three. There we go. I
44:30
Speaker 1: will give you first choice. I'm gonna take the best
44:35
Speaker 1: number available. I'll take that. Oh my god, you're such
44:38
Speaker 1: a dick. I just convinced you on the Chiefs, and
44:41
Speaker 1: now I'm taking the Titans. I'm taking the Titans minus
44:43
Speaker 1: three and a half. I do love the Titans. I
44:45
Speaker 1: just think you about to get a better number later
44:47
Speaker 1: in the week, So I know Chad like to change
44:48
Speaker 1: his number. I'm an honorable guy. I always take, but
44:54
Speaker 1: I'll take the best number available. Take the Chiefs, even
44:56
Speaker 1: though I've seen one of the halts in some books. Um,
44:59
Speaker 1: I'll take the two. Do we think it's gonna go
45:01
Speaker 1: down in one and a half? Might? I mean again,
45:04
Speaker 1: all it depends what pro groups are hitting it. Like Mad,
45:07
Speaker 1: I think of throw three different guys who are runners
45:09
Speaker 1: in Jersey already hit this number. And Chad, do you
45:11
Speaker 1: see the numbers coming out of New Jersey? Remember all
45:14
Speaker 1: that noise I heard about how much New York Market
45:15
Speaker 1: was gonna affect New Jersey's gambling change nothing? Numbers are
45:19
Speaker 1: just the same. New York Market the past uh eight
45:23
Speaker 1: days since it launched has just been on fire. It's
45:28
Speaker 1: it's big, it's I mean, it's bigger than Jersey obviously,
45:30
Speaker 1: but I'm just saying people have said Jersey numbers many
45:32
Speaker 1: drop way off. The numbers were above what they were
45:34
Speaker 1: last year at this point. Gonna shock. It's gonna shock
45:37
Speaker 1: people to hear this. But people like to bet. When
45:41
Speaker 1: they have the opportunity to bet, uh from their couch
45:44
Speaker 1: on their phones, They're gonna fire the funk away Man.
45:47
Speaker 1: They're gonna be bet in James Connor anytime, touchdowns as
45:51
Speaker 1: often as they possibly can. All Right, I want to
45:54
Speaker 1: remind people to rate and review the podcast because and
45:57
Speaker 1: you're gonna give us a tent are you're gonna give
45:59
Speaker 1: us five stars? I don't give a ship what you say.
46:01
Speaker 1: You can be as mean as you want be critical
46:03
Speaker 1: feedback as a gift. It is review time here at
46:06
Speaker 1: the Action Network. I will be using anything people saying.
46:09
Speaker 1: There's reviews in my reviews of both Matt Mitchell and
46:12
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter as employees of the Action Network. Here's a
46:15
Speaker 1: great review from slop Mix. As a listener. Since the
46:22
Speaker 1: early days, I have to tip my hat to the
46:25
Speaker 1: success of The Favorites. Creator Bob Scucci and prominent personality
46:29
Speaker 1: Tina had no idea what they were setting in motion
46:33
Speaker 1: when they launched the first iteration of this podcast. Fast
46:37
Speaker 1: forward a number of years and the cockpit is manned
46:40
Speaker 1: by superproducer and Bill's fan Matt Mitchell and the effort
46:43
Speaker 1: entertaining Simon Hunter. These guys share immense insight into the
46:48
Speaker 1: weekly state of the game. Even better, they make it fun.
46:51
Speaker 1: Occasional guest Chad Hellman. Chad Hellman provides comic relief in
46:58
Speaker 1: a waiting pick from time to time. Thank you, buddy,
47:01
Speaker 1: no I spotted just facts five stars. Hey, Slot Mix.
47:06
Speaker 1: Please email podcasts at Action network dot com to claim
47:12
Speaker 1: your prize. Thank you for the kind words. I'll extend
47:14
Speaker 1: them to Chad Hilman. This has been the favorite podcast
47:21
Speaker 1: from the Volume and Podcast Network. Join us again on Thursday.
47:24
Speaker 1: We will dive deeper into the divisional playoff round. We'll
47:27
Speaker 1: get even more focused on the Niners and the Packers
47:30
Speaker 1: and the Bucks and the Rams. Will update on what's
47:33
Speaker 1: happening with the Chiefs and the Bills, and the Titans
47:36
Speaker 1: and the Bengals. We will get busy with our big balls.
47:40
Speaker 1: Better the week for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Hillman.
47:46
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you