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NCAAB Best Bets Tuesday 2/17/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight it was
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Arch eight? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know what data is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: you as I always am until I die at least
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: for me. Own five the worst month that I've ever
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't know
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: what to even tell you about this anymore. To the slumpy,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: sewed back with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Tuesday,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: February seventeenth. I had to look. I'm like, wait, what
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: what's happening? Uh? Yeah, yesterday, own one, dude. I mean,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: we run into just a major outlier offensive performance from Duke.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, what do you want me to say about that?
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: You think anybody's gonna predict the Duke's gonna top one
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: hundred points in that game and shoot sixty five percent
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: from the floor, which is something they haven't done all season. No,
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: I mean that's totally unpredictable. It was. We ran into
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: a massive outlier situation. There's nothing you could do about it.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Move on to today. Thanks for people who hung out
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: for my bracketology show last night. By the way, I
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: put an update and a comment in there because what
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I didn't realize is that Utah Valley is actually banned
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: from the postseason now because they tried to leave the
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Whack and in order to do so, you have to
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: pay an exit fee, and they refuse to do that,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: so then the league banned them from postseason play. So
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: that league is just awful, dude. So it's cal Baptist
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: getting in now, but it's gonna be ridiculous whoever gets
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: in from the Whack now, because Utah Valley is the
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: best team in that conference and probably will remain that
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: way for the rest of the season. That is just insane.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: Whoever gets in from that conference, it's gonna be bad.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: It's gonna weaken the tournament field a little bit. It's stupid, Kyle,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All right, we'll get
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: into today. I'm gonna have two college basketball players here.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: It's only college basketball today. Not a huge board, but
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: bigger than yesterday. A couple games up at six pm
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Eastern BC at Florida State on the ACC network is
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: one of the games that's up at six pm. Not
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: a great game, but it is an ACC game. Maybe
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: it would be better than people think. Boston College is
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: on a five game, six game losing string. Excuse me,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: they've been pretty competitive in a few of these games though,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: but most of those being at home, so I don't
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: know how they're gonna respond going out on the road.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: They haven't fared that well on the road. But I
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: do think the spot is worse for Florida State. Here,
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: Florida State just pulled off a road upset against Virginia Tech.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: They'd had a close game the game prior to that,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: an almost upset Virginia the game before then, and they
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: have Clemson on deck, who just fell out of the
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: rankings just because they lost to Duke I guess, I
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: don't know. And then they have Miami on deck at
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: after that, so Florida State does have two bigger games
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: on deck, And because they're coming off an upset and
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: two big performances against the Virginia schools, you could definitely
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: make the argument this is a sandwich spot. So I
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: would probably need to taking the points with BC in
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: this one, although I don't love it. Uh, Florida State
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: is up from ten to twelve and a half here,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of tickets ninety nine percent of the
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: cash of Florida State. The money for now looks like
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: it is on the Florida State side of the I
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: wouldn't want to lay that many points with them. But
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: the perception of this, like the public perception is probably
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: gonna be that that's too many points, like they're not
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: gonna lay double digits with a team that's below five
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: hundred and you know, so perception wise, yeah, it does
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: look like the public is gonna think that's too many
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: points and tend to shy away from Florida State. But
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: based on the situation, I would not want to take Florida.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: I would not want to lay the points of Florida
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: State there. So those are my thoughts on that. One
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: of the biggest games of the night, probably the biggest.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Number one Michigan at number seven per Due Peacock, six
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: thirty PM. This game is definitely gonna get the eyes
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: more so than the other game that's on at the
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: same time, the Big East game. This is gonna be
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: a huge game. Then. I think these two teams are
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: both actually like legit contenders, like potentially for championship. I
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: think Michigan is probably the best team in the country.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: We'll see how they could fare at a place that's
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: definitely not easy to win at Mackie Pavilion or whatever.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: At Purdue. Michigan looked probably way too good on Saturday,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: crushing UCLA by thirty points. Now they're not gonna overlook Purdue,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: so they will show up for this game, but based
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: on what they looked like in their last game, they
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: looked probably too good. Although Purdue looked shockingly good as well,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: and what I thought was a terrible spot. I thought
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: they were in a sandwich spot. Plus they played a
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: ton of road games in quick succession, so I was
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: shocked that they blew out Iowa. Iowa was one of
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: my players on Saturday. I thought it was a horrible
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: spot that Purdue was in after an overtime win on
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: the road against Nebraska that was huge, and they had
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: Michigan on deck massive sandwich spot in Iowa was coming
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: off a horrible game, so I think really it might
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: have just been that Iowa had lost a win streak
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: and the win streak loss hangover came into effect. I
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what to say about it,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: but that wasn't enough for me to not be on
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: Iowa on that one because I thought it was a
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: great play. Wound up not being that way. Perdue now continues.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: They're momentum into this. This is a difficult call. Man,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Michigan looks like they're getting the money early. They're up
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: from a two point favorite to a two and a
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: half point favorite. Very very rare to see a team
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: favorite on the road at Purdue, But Michigan is legit.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: They are the better team here. Seventy five percent of tickets,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the cash on Michigan. If both
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: teams are gonna show up, it kind of comes down
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: to a numbers thing Man and Ken Bomb. He's got
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Michigan as the best team in the country and one
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: of the only teams. They're the only team that's top
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: five and both offense and defense right now according to Kempom.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: You know, they're a little bit luckier than Purdue. Purdue,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: he does have his eighth in the country. Both teams
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: somewhat lucky. It is going to be a pacing contrast
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: with Purdue. They're gonna Purdue, by the ways, top twenty
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: in both offense and defense. But the biggest gap is
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Michigan's elite defense versus Purdue is not so great defense
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: in comparison. That's the biggest disparity between these two teams
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: is on the defense Purdue. What was I about to say?
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: They do play slow, so that's the thing. Michigan wants
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: to go fast, Purdue wants to go slow. So Purdue
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: is able to slow this thing down, which they might
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: be able to do because it's easier to slow the
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: game down, easier for the home team to control the pace.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Based on the total here, it is in the middle,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: so the oddsmakers are kind of just throwing it up
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: right in the middle, like thinking the pace. It could
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: go either way. The total in the one fifties. Very
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: very difficult call for me on this one. Man. I'll
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: lean Michigan very slightly in this one, but I think
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: it's almost like they look too good in their last
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: game though, So I don't know. I certainly don't love
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: it at all. Shut the punk up? What's up? Man?
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: You like Michigan in that one? Yeah? I mean, very
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: very tough call for me on that game. No strong
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: opinion for me on it. As far as the total,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: I think the total is completely correlated with the side.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: I think if you like Michigan, you like the over.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: If you like Purdue, you like the under. And that's
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: pretty much the way that it is because it's gonna
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: fall into one team's preferred style and fall out of
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: the other team's preferred style, So whichever you think it's
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: gonna be. But yeah, I mean, I don't really want
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: to lay points on the road though. I mean, if
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: Michigan was still a two point favorite, the money line
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: would probably make more sense than that one. But now
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: they're two and a half almost three. Ken Bond, by
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: the way, I think has that number at two. For
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: what it's worth, Fox Sports one. Is Villanova and Xavier
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: not the greatest game, man. Villanova's just kind of on
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: cruise control right now. The spot probably sets up a
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: little bit worse for them because it's a second straight
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: road game, third road game in four games. They just
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: beat Creighton on the road, which is a decent win.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, Creighton they're going through an overhaul, man, Like
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: they got huss who was the coach at High Point
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: I believe is there as like their assistant. He's gonna
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: become their successor with McDermott leaves, which might happen soon.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens there with Creighton kind of
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: in transition period there. But Villanova got the win, pretty
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: good win, double digit win at Creighton. Don't know if
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: they're really gonna pay much attention to Xavior. They haven't
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: played Xavier this year, and on deck they have Yukon,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: which is obviously a massive game. So there is a
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: look ahead component to this for Villanova Xavier. They just
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: ended a two game losing streak, although those losses were
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: to Yukon and Saint John's on the road. I mean,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: you're not gonna really knock them for that, and they
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: actually took Saint John's into overtime, and impressively, Xavier coming
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: up that monster effort against Saint John's, they actually did
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: not fall into a hangover spot and they beat Marquette anyway,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: So that shows you something that they were able to
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: put together a performance like that in a bad spot.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Now they're staying at home against Villanova. I'd lean Xavier
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: in this one, not on my card or anything like that.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: The money seems like it's kind of disagreeing with me.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Villanova initially dropped from five to four and a half.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Here fifty two percent of tickets, fifty percent of the
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: cash on Xavier. So it does look like Xavier as
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: a kind of a I don't want to say a
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: public home underdog because these percentages are so close to fifty.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: But I don't know. It's very difficult to read that
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: market right now. But based on the situation, I think
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: it would be Xavier plus the points would be my
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: lean in that one, or yeah, just don't play the game.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: Central Michigan in Eastern Michigan is weird for one reason,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: which is the first meeting between these two teams was
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: a major outlier. And you know, I do look for
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: those things, like I talked about last night, I would
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: have been correct. I was correct with the the over
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: in the Drexel Stony Brook game because their first game
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: was just an unbelievable under where the game wound up
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: like in the nineties, for the entire game. They definitely
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: went They went over by about ten points last night
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: over their total. So I did get that one correct,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I believe. But we you know, I like to look
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: at those outliers in the first meeting and fade what
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: happened in the first one, and this is a situation
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: where you might be able to do it. Eastern Michigan
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: they played at Central Michigan earlier this year and they
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: lost one hundred to sixty five, which is an absolutely
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: ridiculous outlier. Central Michigan put up sixty two points in
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: the second half, absolutely insane. I mean, I'm not saying
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan is some sort of defensive jugger or not,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: but Eastern Michigan was actually a road favorite in that
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: game and they lost. That tells you something, you know.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: That's another thing I look for when the road favorite
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: had a bad game in the first game. Now they're
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: gonna be home favored. I think they will show up
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: with a lot of effort in that second meeting. So
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: I like Eastern Michigan in this game pretty much just
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: for that reason. That was such an outlier. Central Michigan
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: just might not take them seriously this time at Eastern Michigan,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: I think will absolutely take it seriously. Central Michigan's coming
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: up beating Northern Illinois by forty plus points. Here. They're
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: a terrible team, but when you beat anybody by forty
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: plus you're probably feeling a little bit high on yourselves.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: They're playing a third road game in four games here.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: The road games are gonna get really weird in the
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: MAX soon, by the way, with Sacramento State joining the MAC.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: It's like, dude, geography means nothing anymore, Like how the
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: fuck can you have a California team in this conference.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: It's weird enough if there's a Massachusetts team in here.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: But I hate this, Like the ACC, the Big Ten,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: you have just all these cross country trips. I mean, yeah,
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: you can find spots to maybe like get some value
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: playing some of the home teams in those those games,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: but still it's iculous. I fucking hate it. Geography means
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: nothing anymore. Eastern Michigan, they're on a huge losing streak.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Seven game losing streak, I think is what this is,
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: losing to their other rival, Western Michigan in the last
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: game by double digit, staying at home. I think the
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: spot is better for them to break out of this slump,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: discontinue the slump. There is a reason why Eastern Michigan
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: is favored by a decent amount here, even though they're
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: the team with the worst record. The only way I
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: would be able to play that is Eastern Michigan. The
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: money looks like it's coming in opposite that, and I
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: don't get it. Sixty percent of ticket seventy six percent
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Central Michigan. I do not agree
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: with that. I would lay it with Eastern Michigan. I
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: think the price is actually a little bit short, given
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the Eastern Michigan was two and a half on the
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: road against them, which I'm not going to say that
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: number was exactly accurate, but that game was such an outlier.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: Even though these teams really get virtually no home court
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: and here because nobody shows up to these games, you
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: still got to think that this line should probably be
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: a little bit higher than this, though maybe closer to
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: the five and a half where it opened, maybe even
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: a little bit higher. So I would prefer Eastern Michigan.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: There SEC Network seven PM. South Carolina at number twelve.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: Florida pretty much a mismatch in this game, but it
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: might be it might be a situation where Florida just
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: kind of goes into Cruz control mode. Here. South Carolina
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: got absolutely embarrassed at home by Florida, which I think
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: is the main part of this handicap. They lost ninety
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: five to forty eight on their own floor against Florida.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: If you get embarrassed like that, you lose almost fifty
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: points and you don't even score fifty in the game,
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: I think you're gonna show up with a lot of
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: effort when you play that team the next time. Although
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: unfortunately for South Carolina they are playing a bunch of
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: road games here, third road game in four games. But
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: I think I would have to lean towards taking the
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: points with South Carolina and this one based on that outlier.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: In the first game, Florida is coming off a ranked
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: win over Kentucky that was actually kind of better than
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: you think because Florida had not beaten Kentucky in the
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Todd Golden era. They were like owned four against them.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Finally got the win. That was a pretty big win
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: for Florida. For that reason, I'd probably be on South
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Carolina if Florida had a huge game on deck, which
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: they don't. They got oh miss, So as it is,
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: it'll be stay away. But I would take the points
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: of South Carolina if I was gonna play it. The
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: money looks like it's heavily in agreement with me on
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: that one. Florida up from twenty two and a half
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: to twenty three and a half, and it's a game
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: where I don't know they're really gonna be incentivized to
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: win by a margin like that. Sixty two percent of
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: the tickets are on Florida, seventy one percent of the
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: cash on South Carolina. Yeah, I would agree with the
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: market in that one ESPN seven pm, we have one
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: of I think two unranked favorites against ranked underdogs here,
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: which you know, that was an angle that worked really
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: well last year. It's worked in football recently. The professionals
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: like to find this angle man, but it doesn't work
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: that well anymore because the odds makers have caught on
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: to it. Like basically, when the oddsmakers have a huge
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: to scrapan sea between where they think these teams are, which,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: by the way, they know better than the rankings makers.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: The odds makers are the ones using the actual power ratings,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: having actual money at stake. The rankings makers don't know anything.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: And when there's a huge difference of opinion between the two,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: the odds makers, you got to listen to them and
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: they're telling you what you need to know pretty much.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: But they've started skewing these lines because this is such
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: a good angle, especially last year. Last year I think
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: it hit over sixty percent for the season. It started
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: failing a little bit at the end of the season.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: This year it hasn't been that good because the number
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: is just way too skewed on these games now, But
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: this is one of those. Number sixteen, North Carolina at
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: NC State. NC State is a big favorite here and
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: maybe too big. I know Garrett was talking about this
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: game last night. He's on North Carolin this one. This
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: is not gonna be one that I'm gonna have any
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: involvement with. But NC State is a six point favorite
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: on seventy four percent of tickets, ninety percent of the
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: cash on North Carolina. So some of the money and
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: the public, uh, looks like it's all on the North
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Carolina side right now. The books are probably gonna prefer
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: NC State to cover this one now when you first
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: look at it like it's again, it's another one of
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: those situations where you have the ranked team with the
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: better record. There's a reason why they're an underdog, right
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: The oddsmakers are telling you they think NC State is
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: the better team, although ken Bam actually does not agree
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: with that anymore. I thought that he did, and he
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: did up until recently these teams are shifted around. He
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: has North Carolina three ranking spots higher than NC State
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: right now, so he actually has this line different than
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: what the oddsmakers do. But The oddsmakers are also taking
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: taking into account something that Ken Balm is not, which
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: is the Caleb Wilson injury on the North Carolina side,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: who is one of their better players. I think there's
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: second best score. He's out. He went down in the
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Miami game, which was a win for me on the show,
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: by the way, and then North Carolina was able to
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: be pitt at home without him. I mean, no surprise there,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: but maybe it starts coming into effect a little bit
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: more here. You know, the injured player theory is still
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: kind of a thing. You know, North Carolina probably stepped
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: up their game a little bit because of the injury there,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: even though they could have been in maybe a letdown
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: spot after losing a long wind streak to a decent
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: team like Miami. And with this big game on deck
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: against NC State, the game might mean a little bit
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: more to NC State because they consider themselves to be
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: the little brother to North Carolina. They're not considered to
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: be a blue blood like that. N C State is
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: coming up a difficult game though against Miami, pretty big game,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: so they're coming up a bigger game where UNC just
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: kind of cruised their pit. So NC State did have
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: to put in a bigger effort in their previous game,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: so that is one negative for NC State coming into
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: this one. The factors are kind of all over the
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: place in this game, and so you can see why
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do anything with this game. You know,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: you have a misleading line that tells you that you
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: should look to NC State. You got the situation, I
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: think is a little bit better for North Carolina. You
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: got to figure out how much the injury on the
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: North Carolina side. It's worth very, very difficult to handicap
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: this game, yeah, which is why I'm doing nothing with it.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: But yeah, for NC State, you could also make the
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: argument though they were a favorite and lost against Miami,
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: so sometimes when a team loses his home favorite, they
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: will bounce back with effort in the next game. And
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: this look ahead spot to North Carolina was part of
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: the reason why I wasn't a huge fan of NC
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: State in that game, even though Miami was coming off
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: of beating North Carolina, so they were in a letdown spot.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: That was a game that I was definitely avoiding. This
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: game is really really tough, man. Unfortunately, I think because
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: the number is too high, I think I have to
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: probably lean towards taking the wins with North Carolina and
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: agree with Garrett, but yeah, that's a game that there's
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: no way I'm gonna touch that. Game. Number eighteen Saint
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Louis Is at Rhode Island. Saint Louis. I mean, this team, obviously,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: they're really good and they're just cruising through the Atlantic Ten.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: Although they're beating you know, some teams that aren't so great. Really,
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: they struggled against the best team that they played so
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: far in the conference, which is, believe it or not,
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: George Washington. George Washington is a lot better than the
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: record looks. Saint Louis. Actually, they did play VCU my mistake,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: so that was a big win on the road against VCU.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: That was their best conference win. However, Saint Louis has
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: VCU on deck VCU round two, and that game is
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: going to have some implications on who might win the
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: conference here. Although VCU is one and a half games
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: behind Saint Louis right now, but that is still a
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: pretty big deal there. Although I think the A ten
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: tournament is a neutral location tournament, but still you want
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: to you know, if you're this close, you want to
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: put it away and win the regular season title. So
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: that's a big game on deck. Saint Louis versus VCU
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: definitely the two best teams in this conference. Third road
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: game in four games for Saint Louis looks like a
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: game that could overlook a little bit with Rhode Island here.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: Rhode Island is a mediocre team and they're coming off
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: a horrible loss at home to Fordham in overtime. Rhode
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: Island was a favorite and that one Fordham is not
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: very good. Rhode Island for four and a half point
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: favorites in that one, so they might have been looking ahead.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: They might have been in a sandwich spot actually, because
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Rhode Island had had a pretty big game against g W,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: that same George Washington team. I just mentioned the game
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: prior to that, so that was a bigger game and
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: they played them pretty close on the road. So I
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: think Rhode Island probably did get caught in sandwich spot there.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I would have to lean to taking the points with
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Rhode Island in this one. With Saint Louis and a
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: potential look ahead here, and now everybody's you know, talking
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: about Saint Louis. They're kind of the hype right now.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: They're up from a ten and a half point favorite
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: to an eleven and a half point favorite. Money looks
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: like it's on Rhode Island. I would agree with that.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Sixty five percent of tickets on Saint Louis ninety one
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Rhode Island. I'll agree with
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: taking the points with Rhode Island in that game. ESPN
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: seven PM, Number twenty one, Louisville at SMU. Louisville coming
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: into this game in a five game win streak. They've
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: looked pretty good over the last couple of games, crushing
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: NC State and then beating Baylor as well. This Louisville team, though,
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: they're highly dependent on the three, so a lot of
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: it depends on if they're making their threes or not.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: They already beat SMU at home by fourteen, so there
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: is the possibility they don't take them as seriously this time.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Although they only have Georgia Tech on deck, which is
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: not really a big deal. The game is probably gonna
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: mean more to SMU, though, because they're more of a
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: tournament bubble team right now than Louisville is Louisville is
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: definitely gonna get in. SMU might be a little bit
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: worried about their tournament prospects right now. Just lose at Syracuse.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: Now they're coming back home to Dallas from that, maybe
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an unfamiliar venue for these ACC
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: teams too, because SMU hasn't been there after that long
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: coming off kind of an ugly loss on the road
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: to Syracuse. And plus SMU, you know, is trying to
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: avenge a double digit loss. I'd probably lead to SMU
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: in this one. That plus you know the amount of
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: effort they might put into trying to make sure that
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be still in the tournament. Louisville up from
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: four point favorite to four with juice, looks like they
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: are getting the money sixty percent of the cash, sixty
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: five percent of tickets on SMU. I don't agree with
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: that market read though it would be SMU plus the
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: points are passed for me in that one, even though
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: Louisville is indeed the better team there. But don't love
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: the spot there. Number twenty two, Number twenty two, Miami
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: Ohio Is that you mass? Oh God, this is Miami
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Ohio team man? I mean, they might not lose because
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: even though they're not a huge favorite in this game,
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: and it's a revenge spot technically for UMSS. If we
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: look at what happened in that prior game and how
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: this situation sets up, Miami Ohio was getting a real
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: benefit of the situation in this one. So I don't
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: know that they're gonna lose man Miami Ohio. They did
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: just beat their rival Ohio, so they might be feeling
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: pretty high about that. I mean, that's a good wins.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: You could argue that it could be in a little
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: bit of a letdown off of that. They're playing a
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: third road game of four games. They are having to
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: go to Massachusetts, which is a little bit of a
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: weird travel spot for them, and they already beat you
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: mass once. But the problem with that is they actually
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: didn't do well in that game against UMass. Miami Ohio
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: had had a huge game against Kent State the game
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: before that, which was one of the games where they
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: were like press right to the end there. Actually it
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: happened two games in a row. I think they went
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: into overtime against Buffalo and Kent State. Kent State was
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: a huge rivalry game too, so Miami o high coming
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: up that huge game, they were in a bit of
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot against U Mass, and I did lean
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: to U Mass in this one. U Mass covered and
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: almost pulled off the upset, losing by two as nine
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: and a half point underdogs in this game. And when
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: you see a setup like that, as I keep pointing out,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: when a big favorite in the first matchup almost lost
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: the game, they will tend to take that team seriously
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: the next time. So that is a good thing for
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: Miami Ohio. They might not overlook You Mass because they
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: know UMass almost beat them in their own place, and
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: the spot's not that good for You Mass because they
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: just played Akron in their last game. They played pretty
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: close against them. In the prior game they had to
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: go to triple overtime in the Max Sunbelt Challenge, having
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: to go to Myrtle Beach or whatever to play Coastal Carolina,
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: so they're coming up too. Pretty monster efforts in a row.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: So the setup for Miami Ohio is actually better in
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: this game. That game against Akron for U Mass, pretty
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: big game for them. U Mass really just kind of
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: hung in there for most of the game, didn't really
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: go away. There's still not only two possessions in the
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: final minute of the game, so I don't really love
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: how the sets up for U, mass Man. Even though
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: you think that Miami Ohio they're an overvalue team. You know,
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: the numbers, guys look that it look like they are
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: coming in on you, Mass, I can't do it. Based
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: on the situation, I would probably lean to Miami Ohio.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Miami Ohio is a three point favorite, down from three
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: and a half or three with juice sixty five percent
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: of tickets around Miami Ohio because it looks way too
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: easy to play Miami Ohio sixty eight percent of the
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: cash on you Mass though, But given what I just
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: said about the situation, yeah, I would actually lean in
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: the other direction, believe it or not, towards what I
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: do think is a very overrated Miami Ohio team, But
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: the situation sets up way better for them. Ken bum
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: still has Miami Ohio around like eighty fourth in the country.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: So yeah, they faced an unbelievably weak schedule, all right.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: TCU at UCF the the acronym battle here. TCU is
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: coming off two big games there. They pulled up a
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: huge win against Iowa State, huge upset, and then they
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: did not fall into a letdown against Oklahoma State. TCU
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: this team. They're good enough to be a tournament team, man,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: and they're trying to do it right now. They're trying
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: to work their way back. They're a bubble team right now.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: That was a big win against Oklahoma State, who was
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: also a bubble team. That game might have effectively eliminated
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma State and that was an overtime game, so that
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: was another big game for TCU. Now they're having to
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: travel from Stillwater, Oklahoma, all the way to Orlando to
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: play UCF in kind of an unfamiliar venue. The spot
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: is kind of weird and it's not that great to
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: be honest, for TCU. Here could be a letdown as
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: well UCEF. They're trying to remain in the tournaments. Really,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: both these teams do kind of need to show up
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: in this game though, because they're both fighting for tournament
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: for the tournament lives. At this point, UCF is definitely
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: on the bubble now that they've lost three games in
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: a row and two of them are not good losses
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: to Cincinnati and West Virginia and UCF. I think it
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: does set up better for them though, because they're staying
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: at home. They did just lose as I'm pretty sure
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: a home favorite to West Virginia. So I think UCF
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: is the way that I would lean in this game.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: The money does look like it agrees with me on
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: that one their two point favorite. I would do it,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: money line, if I was gonna do it, TCUs sixty
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: two percent of tickets on them, fifty three percent of
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: the cash on UCF. I do agree with that spot
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: is better for them, but it's uh yeah, it's not
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: a game that's really gonna be in consideration for me.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: Every game is in consideration until I look at it.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I do have two plays, I just haven't hit either
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: of them yet. They're both after the seven PM slate here,
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: all right, we have a Kent State in Bowling Green.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Is actually a pretty interesting game in the MAC. People
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: are gonna look at this and think, well, Bowling Green
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: has the worst record, why are they favored? Right? Odsbeggers
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: are telling you these teams are actually about even power
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: ratings wise, Bowling Green tends to get overlooked because they're
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: more of a defensive team. But they're three and a
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: half point favorite here for a reason. These teams did
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: already play at Kent State, and I believe the number
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: was like right where the game final score was like,
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: I think Kent State was a three and a half
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: point favorite in the first matchup and they won by
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: three at home. So I'm not gonna really grab Like
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna really be able to garner much information
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: from that. Like it wasn't really an outlier or anything.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: But the spot for Kent State is a little bit strange.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: Or they're actually playing a fifth road game in six games.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: That's not that easy to do them. Man, and Bowling Green,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: I guess will kind of be in revenge mode. Bowling
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Green is the better depfense here. Bowling Green is staying
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: at home. They just beat Toledo in their last game.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: They do up Miami, Ohio next, but I don't see
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: them overlooking Kent State here. I would lean to Bowling
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: Green in this game. Man, not a strong opinion for me.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: The money is totally disagreeing with me on it. It would
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: have been bet to get Bowling Green at the opener
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: and one and a half they're now a three point favorite.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: There might be two and a half's out there still.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: You could maybe go moneyline Bowling Green if you want to.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Fifty five percent of the tickets around Bowling Green, though
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: sixty percent of the cash on Kent State. I don't
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: buy those percentages. There's no way that I would see
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: this being a situation where the public is leaning towards
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: Bowling Green. There's just no way that's going to be
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: the case in that game. Public likes offense, and they
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: like the team with the better record, and all of
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: that is Kent State. So but yes, overall, I do
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: lean to Bowling Green in that one. All right, uh,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: CBS Sports at eight pm George Washington at VCU. This
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: is actually a pretty interesting game mat George Washington. They're
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: the unluckiest team in the nation according to Kenbom, so
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: they should be better than the record looks. This GW
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: team is not that bad. They are coming up a
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: pretty nice win over George Mason, though, who was one
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: of the top teams record wise in this conference. But
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: now they're showing that they're not really that good. GW
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: was a small home favorite in that was that was
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: a big win. Now I don't really see them being
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: in a letdown spot and out they're playing VCU. I mean,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: it's still a huge game. It's on TV. I think
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: both teams might get up for it, but I think
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: the spot is better for GW because even though they're
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: coming up, the Battle of the Georgia is a big
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: game for them. I think this is still a bigger
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: game for them than it is for VCU because VCU,
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: even though yeah, they gotta win this game to keep
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: pace with Saint Louis, you know who they have on deck,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: because I already talked about Saint Louis, who's also playing tonight.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: VCU has Saint Louis on deck. Man huge game coming
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: up next. There is the potential they might overlook a
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: George Washington team. It's still under the radar and not
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: even in the top half of the conference standings here.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: I think they're like the third or fourth best team
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: at the conference. I'm gonna lead towards George Washington in
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: this one. The money looks like it is kind of
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: coming in on VCU, their seven point favorite, seventy eight
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on them.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: To me, it looks like they could get caught in
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: the look ahead though, so I would lead towards taking
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: the points of George Washington. Not gonna be a play
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: for me, though, next game up will be one of
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: one of my two plays of the day. Give me,
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: give me one second. I'll be I'll be right back.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Seventy six Stop.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Everybody, seventy six. It ain't come up on the road.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Stand the benching number one out go, it ain't gone.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Team of the.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: One two threeam up six nine eight seventy sixes one
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: two three ft six ten eight seventy sixes.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: Alright, that's that's let's get into it first. One. We're
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: gonna take Virginia Tech plus the points plus the eight
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: and a half. Here. I'll like this setup. This is
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: eight pm ACC network. We're gonna fade Miami here. Miami
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: is like putting themselves in a position where they're fairly
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: solidly in the tournament at this point and Virginia Tech
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: is not. So I think you're gonna get a bigger
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: effort out of Virginia Tech for that reason. But there's
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: more to the handicap than just that, where Virginia Tech
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: is much more of a bubble team right now. Miami
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: also could win and not win by March. But look
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: at the last two games for Miami. They beat North Carolina,
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: huge win, knocking off a blue blood that was ranked
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: really high, even though I think North Carolina's a bit overrated.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: They caught North Carolina off the upset of Dukes, so
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: they caught them at a very good time. So maybe
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Miami is not quite as good as they look. We
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: did have Miami on the show in that game. That
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: was a win. And then Miami went to NC State
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: and beat them, pulled off an upset against a team
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: that should be in the tournament as well, so that
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: was a big win. So now Miami is coming off
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: beating the two, North Carolina is there, and now they
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: got Virginia Tech back at home, riding this high off
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: those two huge wins, and up next they gotta play.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I thanked Virginia back out on the road on Saturday,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: I believe is when that is. So that is a
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: huge look at spot, man. So I don't like how
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: this sets up for Miami at all. I think they're
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: in a pretty much a sandwich spot here. And if
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: you look at what Miami's done in conference so far,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: they've had a pretty weak conference slate. Man, if you
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: look at what they've done, I know Virginia Tech's not
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: that good, but looking at what NC State has done,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, all right, excuse looking at what Miami has done.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: Excuse they lost at home to Cal. They beat Stanford
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: at home, not that impressive. They lost to Florida State
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: at home, beat Georgia Tech, who cares, and they beat
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Pit by less than double digits. Not an impressive resume
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: even at home for Miami here man, So you know,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, how many times have they even won at
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: home by a margin like this? I know they did
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: it against North Carolina, but that was a great spot
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: for them. Whatever. They barely did it against Stanford, they
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: failed to do it against Cal, failed to do it
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: against Florida State, barely did it against Georgia Tech, and
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: then didn't do it against Pitt. So they haven't won
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: by more than ten in any of their home games
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: so far. And Virginia Tech is better than Georgia Tech
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: and Pitt of course, So you know, Virginia Tech is
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: also coming into this game off an embarrassing home loss
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: to Florida State, and you can kind of see what
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: happened in that game. That was a sandwich spot. I
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: don't remember exactly why that wasn't one of my plays,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: but Virginia Tech, Yeah, I mean, they'd played decently on
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: the road. They almost covered this number on the road
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: against NC State, who I think is better than Miami.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech then went on the road in the upset Clemson.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: That was a huge win for Virginia Tech. They were
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: in total letdown mode after that. Man, just got obliterated
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: by Florida State in their last game, totally embarrassing loss.
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: Now I know they're going back out on the road.
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: I know it's a third road game in four games.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: But when you have a horrible loss like that, I
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: think you're gonna bounce back from that, especially as you
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: were a home favorite. In that game. You lost to
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: a team it's just not that good by a hideous amount,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: by twenty three points. That's a bad loss for Virginia Tech. Man.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: So I think the situation on both sides of this
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: sets up really nicely to look towards Virginia Tech. I
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: think we might be getting some line value here as well,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: though I know ken Bum has this line at eight,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: but we're gonna do it. The money seems like it's
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: very much in alignment with me on this. Miami is
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: up to an eight and a half point favorite, fifty
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets on them, eighty eight percent of
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: the cash on Virginia Tech. That is what we're going with.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: We're going with Va Tech here now. Yes, Ken bum
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: as Miami is the better team. He has them thirty
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: seventh in the nation. They're pretty balanced offense depense, they
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: play slightly fast, and they're slightly lucky. As far as
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Virginia Tech is concerned. They're also lucky. They're they're actually
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: luckier according to Ken Bumb, but there isn't a huge
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: luck disparity there. They play like a mid tempo as well,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: so the tempo disparity is not gonna be anything huge.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: But the one thing to notice is Virginia Tech is
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: actually still a pretty balanced team themselves. So they're just
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: not quite as good as Miami, but they're not horrible
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: on either side of the ball. So I think they
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: can be competitive in games like this, and they have
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: shown that this season as well. You know, Virginia Tech,
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: like I said, they won on the road at Clemson,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: so there is precedent for them doing pretty well on
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: the road. Taking only a fourteen point loss against Louisville
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: on the road is actually a pretty decent result as well.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Nine point loss to NC State on the road, losing
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: by one at SMU. I mean they've been okay on
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: the road, like, they have not gotten blown out really
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: on the road, so and we're looking for them to
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: not get blown out here. So that's what we're getting here.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: I like the past results on both sides here as
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: far as the home road results for these teams as well.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Virginia Tech is the first play Garrett, what's
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: up man? And thanks for hanging out. All right, there's
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: gonna be one more playing here, not the next game Peacock.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: At eight thirty pm, we have UCLA at number fifteen
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: Michigan State. UCLA probably looking to redeem themselves after a
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: pretty ugly loss by thirty to Michigan all the Michigan
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: is definitely elite. Bad game for UCLA. Nonetheless, second straight
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: road game not really going to be that easy to do.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: But when you're coming off a horrible result like that,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: you might show up with a better effort the next
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: time out. However, Michigan State's coming off a really ugly
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: effort themselves. They got obliterated by Wisconsin. I was pretty
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: shocked by that result. I thought it was going to
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: be a close game. I thought Michigan State would wind
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: up on the right side of it. I was way
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: off on that one. So both teams are coming off
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: horrible results. I think both teams are going to show
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: up for this particular game. If that's the case, I
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: mean you might wind up leaning towards Michigan State here.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: They're up to an eight and a half point favorite,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: with juice seventy nine percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Michigan State. You know, they're definitely
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: the better team here. I could see the argument of
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: laying it with the better team here. It comes down
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: to what the number is. It's gonna be a probably
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game, though, and that's kind of my
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: issue that I would have with Michigan State here, is
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: that they're gonna slow the game way down, and they're
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: not a very good offensive team. They're much better. They're
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: an elite defensive team, but they're not very good on offense,
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: so they don't cover huge numbers with like ease like
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: some other teams can do. The total is up a
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: little bit to one pint forty. UCLA likes to kind
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: of play in these slower games as well, though they're
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: actually not a good defensive team. Believe it or not.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: So Michigan State is the better team. They are the
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: way better defensive team. But yeah, I don't know, men,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: this game is very difficult for me to figure out.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: UCLA is still a balanced team, even though they're just
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: not terrific on either side. Michigan State is a much
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: more imbalanced team towards the defense, but their offense is
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: basically about as good as UCLA is is. They're just
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: way better on defense. But it looks like it might
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: be a slow paced game. I could definitely see arguments
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: for both sides here. Man, It's a very very difficult
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: read for me in this one. I guess you could
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: make the argument that losing by thirty like UCLA did
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: is a little bit more embarrassing, you know too, although
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: it was to a really good Michigan team. I don't know.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: I go back and forth with this game. I don't
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: even know if I want to give it a lean
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: on this game. To be honest, I have like almost
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: no opinion on this game. So yeah, I mean take
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: from that what you want to. I guess an under
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: might make sense in this game more so than the side.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: If that's the case, maybe somewhat makes sense to take
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: the points with UCLA, but I don't know. I think
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: an under makes more sense in that game because I
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: think both teams are probably gonna be a little bit
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: more focus coming into this game, which usually shows itself
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: on the defensive side. We know that Michigan's elite on
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: the defensive side, so you know there is that they
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: definitely have a defensive advantage there. Yes, I talked about
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: North Carolina and NC State are ready basically, like you know,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: the misleading line aspect of it, looks like you should
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: play NC State, but I think the numbers probably a
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: little bit over adjusted based on the injury and whatever.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: It's a really, really hard game to figure out. I
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: think the situation might be a little bit better for
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: North Carolina, but North Carolina is still nowhere near as
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: good as people think they are though, and NC State
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: is better than people think they are. So I you know,
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: I have a slight lean towards ends North towards North Carolina,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: and it's only because I think the number is too high.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: But there's no way that I want to get involved
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: in that game. FS one Fox Sports one. Yes, I
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: know you did, but you should not bet with your
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: bias man, you should not bet with your heart, Like
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: I'm yeah that game. There are just factors to it
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: that are just all over the place, and generally, as
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: a rule, there's no way that I'm gonna play any
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: road underdog and it's an unranked home favorite. It's just
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: not it's not in my I don't know, what do
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: you want to It's not in my portfolio, let's say
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: at all. It's just not something I'm gonna do. I'm
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: either gonna play the home favorite or I'm gonna stay
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: off the game because basically, I mean, the books are
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: basically begging you to play North Carolina in that game,
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: and that is my huge concern with it. It looks
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: way too easy to do it, and the perception of
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: those two teams is just way off from what they
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: actually are. Like, I think NC State should be favored
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: by like four four and a half in that game.
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: I think NC State will win the game. I yeah,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Uh yeah. Again, there's just no way
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: that I would recommend playing the North Carolina would. Yeah,
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: I can't recommend it at all, even though I might
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: have a slight lean that way, just because of the number.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Number twenty four was cont Ohio State Foxford's one at
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: eight thirty pm Eastern Wisconsin back in the rankings. You know,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I talk about this one. A team has been unranked
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: for so long and they cracked the rankings again. A
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: lot of times they'll have an immediate let down because
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: that just that number next to their name gets them
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: a bit overconfident. It puts a target on their back.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: So I don't love that about Wisconsin here, and I
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: don't love the fact they just had a huge win,
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: two huge wins in a row, a road up set
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: against Illinois, and then they beat Michigan State handily at home,
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: So they're coming off two monster wins and now they're
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: playing an Ohio State team they just beat at Wisconsin
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: by ten two games prior to that Illinois game. So
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of things that line up on the
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: Ohio State side here on this one. Wisconsin plays Iowa next.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: Don't know if I'm gonna argue that's a look ahead,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: but Iowa is above Ohio State in the standings barely.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: Ohio State is a bubble team, so this is a
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: winnable game for Ohio State to so they're gonna want
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: to show up in this game. The issue I have
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: with Ohio State is they played a huge game in
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: their last game as well, in the Nashville Showcase or
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: whatever it was against Virginia. They almost pulled off the
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: upset against Virginia in that game against the ranked teams.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: That was a huge game for Ohio State there as well.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna still lean to Ohio State in this game,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: but you know, the spot just isn't great for either
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: team in my opinion. But it also looks way too
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: easy to play Wisconsin. I mean, the team with the
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: better record and that's now ranked. It looks so easy
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: to play Wisconsin when you're just asking, oh just pick
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: the winner. Throw up to a one and a half
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: point favorite. It looks like some of the money is
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: on them initially, but I don't know if it's gonna
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: wind up that way. Seventy six percent tickets, ninety three
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: percent of the casual on Wisconsin. I would look the
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: other way in that one, though. It would be Ohio
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: State or pass for me on the side in that one.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: But not one that's on my radar, really, I mean
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: it's on my radar, it's just not one of my plays.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Selthy's Missouri State and U Team Martin is actually a
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: pretty good Ohio Valley game happening tonight between the third
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: place team and the first place team are only separated
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: by one game. CIMO already beat Tennessee Martin, I believe right, Yeah,
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: they beat them by sixteen points at home, so there
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a revenge mode of here
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: for UT Martin, or more so, I would say it's
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: the fact that Southeast Missouri might I don't want to
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: say they're gonna overlook the first place team in the conference.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: They're not gonna do that. But Tennessee Martin's gonna be
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: the team that makes the adjustments in this one because
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: they are still the better of the two teams. CIMO
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: is coming up a nice road win against lynden Wood.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: They're playing a third road game in a row, so
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: that's a difficult spot too. So some of these things
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: don't set up that well for them. For U Team Martin,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: they did just beat SIU Edwardsville, which was a decent win,
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: although they've fallen down to fifth place in the conference
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: or something like that. So I think this game is
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: more meaningful to you Team Martin. I don't think they're
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: gonna be to let down off of that. They're coming
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: back home from a two game road trip where the
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: last time they were at home they had a pretty
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: ugly loss to Morehead State, who are not that good.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: Even though they're fourth or fifth in the conference or whatever,
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: that was still a loss as a pretty big favorite
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: for UT Martin there, so when that was your last
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: home game, I think that does focus you as well
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: when you come back home. So it would be UT
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Martin for me in this game or pass o. They're
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: up from two and a half, well actually they went
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: down actually from two and a half to two and
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: a half with reduced juice. We don't really see the
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: percentages yet on this. It looks like some of the
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: early money is on CMO, but I do not agree
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: with that. I would be on utam Martin. If the
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: line drops, you might get a decent money line on
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: that too, But not a strong opinion really for me.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Late season non conference matchups, yeah, I don't know. I
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: think there are some that work their way in there.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know, it's just the NCAA wants to showcase
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: some of these, like bigger conference teams. I don't know.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: I think it does happen. Like. It's not just I
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: don't think it's new thing this year. A lot of
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: times it's more like like an entire conference plays an
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: entire conference, though, like they used to do, like the
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: Big ten versus ACC or you know whatever, like Big
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: twelve versus It might have been Big twelve versus Aces
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: or whatever like conferences. You know, a lot of times
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: those conferences would have the entire conference. They're playing an
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: entire other conference in a challenge somewhat late in the season.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: But now they're doing some different things. I know the
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: MAC and Sun Belt did it, and they actually did
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: it twice this year because I was like, oh, why
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: are the sun Belt hosting all the games in this one?
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: But it was because the MAC. I thought it was
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: like a year by year thing. But the MAC actually
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: hosted the Sun Belt teams earlier this season, so that's
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: what happened, which makes more sense to give each conference
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: home games during the same season. No, I don't think so.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: I think sometimes they work their way in No, like
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: the the the out of conference schedule that happens before
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: conference play. It's usually like weird tournaments that are in
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: neutral locations. You know, it's all that shit, like teams
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: playing in Vegas and in Hawaii and in the Caribbean
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: and Florida and California and whatever in the you know,
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: warm locations, but no like the like Big Ten versus
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: ACC Challenge or whatever it might be that usually happened
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: in the middle of conference play. Because I remember that
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: thing happening. I don't know why they're not doing it now,
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I don't know. I think it does happen,
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: just I don't know. These are a little bit different,
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: I guess because it's like these one off games and
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: it's not the entire conference doing it. So I don't know,
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: but it's it's kind of a detriment to well, I
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: don't know if it's a detriment to Duke in Michigan,
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: because it gives each of them a chance to get
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: a huge win on their resume. So and if whichever
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: team loses that game, it's not gonna really hurt them
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: that much. So I don't know. Big Ten Network number
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: nine Nebraska at Iowa. This is a game, you know,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know where our Nebraska guy Nate is right now.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: But this is the other one of the games where
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: you have an unranked favorite against ranked underdog here, So
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Iowa is the unranked favorite here. The osmakers are telling
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: you Nebraska is not that much better than Iowa. Ken
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Bum basically agrees with that. He's got Nebraska eleventh. They're
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: a pretty imbalanced team at this point. Nebraska, they're way
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: better on offense than defense. They're kind of like Michigan.
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: They're way better on defense and offense. Excuse me, they're
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: kind of like Michigan State, very similar actually, but they
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: play slightly less slow Iowa. Ken Bomb as twenty fifth.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: They're a more balanced team. They're the better offensive team here,
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: not better on defense, but Iowa just play horrifically slow,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: so they try to slow it to a crawl and
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: frustrate you. And I always been good at home. Man.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: They were twelve and one at home this year, I
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: think straight up going into that game against Purdue and
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: now they're twelve and two. But Iowa was still very,
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: very difficult to beat at home. So I would not
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: be looking to fade Iowa and this one. I'll tell
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: you that on Nebraska is coming up a pretty easy
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: win over in Northwestern that was actually close. Earlier in
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: the game. Nebraska played well after coming up that huge
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: game against Purdue. I thought they might be in a
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: hangover spot, but they were not. They're playing in Iowa here.
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: I think these teams play again at the very end
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: of the season. Yes, they do, because they're considered rivals
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: sort of, I guess. But I still think it's gonna
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: be a difficult spot for Nebraska here in Iowa. Did
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: have that big game, but they're staying at home and
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: they got trounce by Purdue. So I think when you're
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: staying at home off a bad loss like that, I
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: think you're gonna show up and people might look at
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: ioas recent results. Oh they lost to Maryland. They barely
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: got my Northwestern at home, and Nebraska just killed Northwestern.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: This is basically just picked the winner. It looks so
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: easy to take Nebraska. Oh, the ninth best team in
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: the country, you know whatever. No, I would not do that.
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: I would play Iowa. If I was gonna play this game.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: It would be a money line play. If I was
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. Eighty percent of the tickets are on Nebraska.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: Obviously they're gonna be a heavily public side. Oh my god,
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: I'm getting the ninth ranked team in the country as
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: an underdog. How why are the books giving me free money? Man?
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Only seventy seven percent of the cash on Nebraska. Iowa
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: has gone up from a pick them to one point
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: favorite here. I think you'll probably find a good money
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: line on Iowa and that one. That would be the
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: way I would I would look in that game would
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: be Iowa money line. That would be the only way
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: I would play it. ESPN two at nine pm Baylor
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: at Kansas State. Baylor on a three game losing streak here,
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: but it was to three ranked teams though, and they
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: had a chance to get a win over Louisville that
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: didn't happen either, weird out one of those Another one
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: of those weird out of conference games there. But I
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: don't know, it happens more often than you think. Those
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: games worked in later in the season. But Baylor, they're
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: pretty much out of the tournament at this point, Man,
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: they're out of the picture. But maybe they'll try to
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: show up for a game against Kansas State. I don't
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: think these teams have played this year, although I could
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: be wrong. Just a lot of teams in the Big
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: twelve now, so yeah, I don't think so. Kansas State
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: is on a big losing streak as well, six six
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: losses in a row. They're coming up having to go
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: to Houston, though, and they covered. They played okay against Houston,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: losing by fourteen. They got Texas Tech on deck. Now,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: when you're on a six game losing streak, you're not
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: gonna overlook anybody. But I think Baylor actually is the
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: better team, and people might not realize that. Looks like
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: Baylor is public though seventy percent of tickets, only sixty
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Baylor. They're out from four
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: to four with juice, and I think I would probably
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: lean Baylor in this one, even though they look like
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: the public side. I'm pretty shocked that the public would
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: want to lay that many points on the road with
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: a near five hundred team, but I guess it's because
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: they want no part of Kansas State. It was a
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: horrible record, But I don't know. To me, I think
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: it would be Baylor or Pass in that one. But
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: it's not yeah, not really something gets on my radar.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: Both teams are coming out big games, so that's not
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: really anything that that has to be favoring one team
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: over the other. That game is not something I would
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: ever want to touch. Correct, Yes, I talk about that
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: the fired coaches spot. Which team got fired? Which coach
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: got fired? Oh? Kansas State did? All right? That is
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: good to know. All right, then maybe I changed my
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: opinion on that. If you got a fired coach spot
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: coming in, if they literally just did that, then yes,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I would probably actually lean to Kansas State. That's a
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: good point. Did not know that at all. Good thing.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: I don't have any anything going on in that game.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: I wasn't gonna play the game anyway. But yeah, that's
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: that is a phenomenon, that is correct. What does that mean?
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that means. They play in me what?
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: But yes, the fire coach spot, that is a thing
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: where if the team didn't like the coach and they
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: weren't responding to them, they might just get fired up
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: and respond to the coach being fired. But you're right,
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: they also want to play hard to make it look
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: like it wasn't them and that it was the coach.
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: It works really well in like the NFL typically playing
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: playing a game like that Sunday. So have they played?
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: They haven't played since then? Right? Let me see was
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: it after the game against Houston? I mean they didn't
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: even play that bad against Houston though that Houston game
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: was Saturday, right, so it was after that Houston game
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: they did it, right? What when did they do it? Then?
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: The fire coach spot is a one time deal, man, Like,
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: you play on that team literally the game after they
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: fire their coach and that's it. Or was it after
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: the Iowa State game? Because they did play pretty well
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: against CCU they that one. If that was the fire
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: coach spot, I don't know, but it was something I
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: was completely unaware of. I just wasn't involved in that
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: game at all. Yeah, but the fire coach thing is
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: a one time deal. Like I said, the first game
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: is where you get that realick spark. Okay, yeah, so
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: they played well in that spot, but that spot doesn't
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: apply now, so I retract what I said about that.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: I do Leanto Baylor in that game, even though the
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: market disagrees with me. Well, I don't know the market
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: disagrees with me, and that's what am I doing in
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: that game? I don't know. But the fire coach spot
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: is a one time thing though. You play them literally
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: immediately after they fire their coach, and that's it. You
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: get the spark out of them for that one game
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and then it goes away a lot. Well, sometimes it
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: will stay, but you know you don't want to bank
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: on that. It's that first game where you really get
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: the effort. Georgia at Kentucky. Georgia just got pretty much
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: smoked by oak Home, which is not a good loss.
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma's not very good. Georgia was coming off a big
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: rivalry game against Florida, so and having to go weird
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: spot having to go to Oklahoma, so maybe that had
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: an impact. I don't know. I kind of expect a
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: better effort out of Georgia this time here, though. Kentucky
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: is a solid team, but they're coming off a pretty
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: big game against Florida. They've beaten Tennessee. The game before that,
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: they beat Oklahoma. I think by the same score that
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma just beat Georgia or something really close to that.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: So people are gonna look at this and think this
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: looks really easy to play Kentucky based on all that.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: I might disagree. I mean, they did just lose a
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: three game win streaking, a big rivalry game against Florida.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: They got Auburn on deck. Maybe they'll be looking ahead
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: to that a little bit. I don't know if They're
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: gonna pay as much attention to Georgia here. Now. Georgia
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: is really on the bubble now, man in the tournament,
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: so they need to do something here, whereas Kentucky is
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: like definitely gonna be in the tournament at this point,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Georgia possibly not. So I would probably take the points
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: with Georgia on this one. I was gonna do anything
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: with it. Kentucky's down from seven and a half to
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: seven seventy percent of the tickets ninety six percent of
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: the cash on Kentucky. I'm not sure that I buy
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: that cash percentage in that one. I would lean towards
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: taking the points of Georgia there. LSU at Texas SEC Network,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: nine pm Eastern. A lot of big games here, man,
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: a lot of big conference games. LSU has lost three
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: more games in a row here. They played Okay at
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: Tennessee in their last game. Now it's a second straight
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: road game. They got a ranked Alabama team on DECKO. Though,
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: when you've lost three games in a row, you're probably
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: gonna at least show up. Texas is on a nice
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: little run right now. They just got a win for
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: me on Saturday against Missouri. You know, basically pick the
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: winner situation. I think Texas does come into this with
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: momentum and they're trying to play their way back into
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: the tournament years. They're definitely a bubble team right now.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: The money is all coming in at LSU, though, Texas
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: up from ten and a half to eleven, seventy percent
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: of tickets on Texas eighty five percent of the cash
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: on LSU. I don't know, man, I mean, you know me,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: I kind of like Texas because they're a really undervalue
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: team even still to me, I think the public would
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: think that this line looks a little too big, although
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: maybe not at this point. I guess. I don't know.
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: They've seen Texas look good recently. LSU's look really bad recently.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Texas is definitely a significantly better team, which the Odsvigers
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: are telling you. Maybe the line is a little bit
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: too high. I don't know. Texas is really good on offense,
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: though they're deficient on deepfense. But maybe when that's the case,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: you still don't want to really lay that many points
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: with them. The market is saying LSU for what it's
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: worth in that one, but I don't have a strong
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: opinion on that one at all. I'd say the same
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: thing about Baylor in Case State to be honest, Like,
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: I don't even want to really give out a lean
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: on that the market is saying Case State in that one,
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't know what to even do with
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: it really. All Right, we got Nevada and San Jose State.
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: I think there's a little bit of a handicapping angle here.
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: Nevada already beat San Jose State I think thirty three
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: points at home, so they could easily overlook the San
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: Jose State team here. Man. Now, I would probably be
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: on San Jose State if Nevada had a closer game
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: in their last game against San Diego State, which they didn't.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: San Diego State beat them my double digits in the game.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: I don't think was that close. Nevada made it close
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: once early in the second half, and then they were
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: just gone by the end of it. They were down
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: twenty points late in the game, so it wasn't a
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: close game. Again. If it was, I'd really be looking
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: to fade them here because they'd be in a huge sandwich, Bob,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: because they do have Utah State on deck, which is
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: a big game. They already clabbered the San Jose State team.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: It is a third road game in four games as well.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: I still lean to San Jose State in this one.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: It's just not as strong as it would be if
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: Nevada had a huge performance in that last game against
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: San Diego State. San Jose State is coming of another loss.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: They lost it home to Grand Canyon. They're on a
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: huge losing streak. But you're gonna only be asking them
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: to cover as a big underdog in this one. That's
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: the way I would lean San Jose State plus the points.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: Nevada is up from nine and a half to eleven
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: there now low total in the low one forties. I'd
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: be looking to take the points with San Jose State
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: in that one. CBS Sports has an interesting one with
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Grand Canyon at San Diego State in the Mountain West.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: Grand Canyon actually beat San Diego State at home by one,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: but now they're having to go to an unfamiliar venue
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: San Diego State, So I think Grand Canyon there's going
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: to be We've kind of seen a play out this
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: way where they have some kind of big home roads
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: splits here where they have a venue at home where
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: because they're new to the conference, the opponents aren't used
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: to playing there. But then on the other hand, they're
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: not used to playing at all these conference opponents arenas either,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: so that's what they're having to do here. San Diego
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: State might be in a little bit of revenge mode here.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: Grand Canyon is only coming off a win over San
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: Jose State, though, so they're not really going to letdown
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: spot or anything. They'll still show up, but San Diego
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: State might have that revenge modive or adjustment motive here,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: but they are coming up a bigger win I guess
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: over Nevada. That was a pretty satisfying winning. It's a
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: decent Nevada team, but I still don't think they're gonna
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: overlook a Grand Canyon team that's close to them in
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: the standings right now and that beat them the first time.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: San Diego State's an eight point favorite, and they are
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: that way for a reason. But it is kind of
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: a high number to lay with a defensive team like
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: San Diego State. Total is low, it's in the one thirties.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: We got fifty to fifty on the tickets and fifty
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on San Diego State. I
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: still probably agree with laying it with San Diego State,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: but it's not It's not one that that would be
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: close to being a play for me. It might be
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: a fun game to watch, though, Minnesota at Oregon, this
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: is not gonna be a fun game to watch. This
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: is on Fox Sports One, getting into the degenerate hours
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: at ten thirty pm, and that means you know that
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: my last play is gonna be on the very last game,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: the one after this. Minnesota, they just lost at Washington.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: They'd had a horrible loss to Maryland the game before
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: that as a favorite, but going out to the Pacific
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: Coast probably a bit of a weird scenario. And they're
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: catching a Washington team that also lost as a big
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: favorite at home the game before that, So Minnesota lost
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: to an inspired Washington team. They might play a little
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: bit better here against Oregon, however, Oregon's gonna have some
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: new momentum because I told you they would cover against
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: ben State and they did. Oregon finally got a win
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: in the covert as a decent sized favorite, which they
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: were for a reason, and they finally broke this long
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: losing streak. And when you're Oregon, you break along losing
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: streing like that. That will help you get out of
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: that rut. You know what I mean, You'll just play
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: looser once you finally get that monkey off your back. So,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: and it's kind of an unfamiliar venue for Minnesota. So
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: I kind of like Oregon in this one, man, but
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: they're already up from one and a half to four
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: and a half. I don't know what triggered that line
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: moved to that degree. I think at four and a
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: half it might be a little bit unplayable, But seventy
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on Oregon fifty fifty on
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: the tickets, I think Oregon will win the game. I
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: would lean that way. I mean, they might be like
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: a money line parlay piece or something if you want
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: to do it that way. Because the line's gotten a
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: little bit out of control, It's probably gonna be an
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: ugly game. I mean, both these teams play a low
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: scoring game, so laying points is a little bit dicey
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: in a game like that total in the one thirties,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: But I think Oregon probably gets the job done. And
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: then finally the last game, the Degenerate Special at eleven PM,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: number thirteen, Texas Tech at Arizona State. You know what
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do here, just like we faded Kansas after
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: they pulled off the win over Arizona. We're also gonna
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: do it with Texas Tech here. We're gonna take Arizona
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: State plus eight and a half against Texas Tech. Texas
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: Tech is coming off that huge win over Arizona. They
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: were nine and a half point underdogs in that game.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: You know, they caught Arizona at a really good time.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: Oh why don't I have dude, I hate this, I
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: have the timer on in that one. Come on, man,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: stupid yard. But anyway, you know that they caught Arizona
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: at a good time because Arizona was coming up their
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: first loss of the entire season to Kansas. And you know,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: I talk about when a team is undefeated that late
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: into the season and they lose a game, they can
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: lose that game twice. And that's what happened with Arizona.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: So Texas Tech caught them at a good time. I
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna be in a letdown spot here. They're
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: playing a third road game in four games. Not gonna
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: be that easy. I don't know that they're really gonna
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: get up for a game against Arizona State, who's just
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: not that good looking at Texas Tech's road resume here,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: By the way, you're asking them to lay eight and
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: a half. Look at what they've done on the road
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: so far. Yeah, it was a great win, beating Arizona
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: by three. Okay, they beat West Virginia by seven, lost
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: by eight at UCF. The only blowout road when they
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: have was at Baylor by nineteen. They won by two
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: at Colorado and that was a win for me with
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: Colorado though. Yeah, Colorado have to make a huge lake
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: comeback there. And they lost on the road to Houston.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: I know Houston's really good, but still Texas Tech has
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: only covered this number one time on the road and
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: it was at Baylor. And in this game. I yeah,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: they were only a one and a half point favorite
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: in this game. So they have not been a favorite
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: of this magnitude on the road probably the entire season.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: So it's kind of ridiculous for Texas Tech to be
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: this big of a favorite on the road, and it's
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: a situation they're not used to. And they're flipping from
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: being a nine and a half point dog to being
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: an eight and a half point favorite in the very
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: next game. And you know, I talk about that too.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: They were an anti public underdog the first time. I
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: talk about this in the NFL a lot, but it
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: applies to college basket, but it applies to pretty much
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: any sport. Really. When you have a team that was
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: a big anti public underdog, especially when they pull off
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: that upset and now the very next game they're a
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: big public favorite, you want to look to go against
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: that team, man, because the perception is just off and
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: the line has just kind of moved too much towards
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: that team. You know, I think you pretty much know
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: what you're getting some line value fading them. Arizona State.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: I know they're not a good team, but you know,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: if they're trying to save Bobby Hurley or yeah, Bobby
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: Hurley's job, whatever, maybe they're gonna play some inspired basketball.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: They did get a win in their last game over
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. I think they were a small favorite in
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: that game, so that's a good sign. I guess that
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: they gotta win. They won two of their last three games.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: At least they beat Oklahoma State was at least somewhat
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: competitive team, so they have some a little bit of
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: momentum coming into this. I don't think they're gonna overlook
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech. And if you look at what Arizona State
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: has done at home in conference playing. It's actually not
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: that bad. Let me see here, I look at just
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: their conference games. They did lose by six to Colorado,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: but it was only by six. They beat Kansas State
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: by three lost the only game they lost by margin
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: at home was by twelve to West Virginia. I'm pretty
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: sure they beat Cincinnati by fourteen. Actually they lost by
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: margin to Arizona, but I mean that's Arizona. They lost
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: by thirteen to Arizona, and then they beat Oklahoma State
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: by nine. So they've only lost twice by this margin
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: and home conference Bay all season, and one of them
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: was against Arizona, so and they covered that game. So
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: I don't think they have not been that bad at home. Man,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: So I think it all kind of lines up. It
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: is also a huge letdown spot, of course, is just
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: the biggest component of this. Ken Bum I think has
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: this number at around eight. Of course, Texas Tek is
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: the better team. I'm not going to argue they're not.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: Ken Bomb does have them as the better team. Obviously,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: they're pretty balance, they're a solid team. They're kind of
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: a mid tempo team. They're high up there in luck though,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: at one hundred and second in luck Arizona State. For
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: what it's worth, they're also fairly up there in luck
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: index as well, so the luck index kind of negates itself.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: They do play fast, which Texas Tech doesn't exactly want
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: to do. So Arizona State, maybe you'll play fast, try
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: to spe the thing up. Arizona State is mostly deficient
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: on the defensive side, but they could score decently, so
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: we'll see. I mean, yeah, Texas Tech is better on
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: both sides of the ball, but this is really more
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: about the spot than anything else. The market is agreeing
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: with me on this. Texas Tech eight and a half
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: point favorite here, seventy three percent of tickets on them,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: fifty two percent of the cash on Arizona State. But
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: that is the play. Mostly, we're playing the major, major
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: letdown spot the Texas Tech is in. That's gonna do it, man,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: And you know, just kind of it's an outlier spread too.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: Like again, they're just not used to being in a
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: role with very massive road favorite like this. That's gonna
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: do it once again. My two plays both underdogs. Virginia
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: Tech plus eight and a half, Arizona State plus eight
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: and a half. College basketball duo of plays here on
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: a Tuesday two for Tuesday. There you go. Learn to
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• 1:09:49
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• 1:09:52
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• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: I haven't been getting as many listeners over there, but
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: it's March Madness time. Man, come on. We'll see if
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: it picks up a him with NBA and NHL getting
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: towards the playoffs. Probably NBA people don't really care about
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: the NHL, but it's definitely a money maker. Page round
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• 1:10:18
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• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: as I always say, Yeah so yeah, Like subscribe over
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• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: Loser casts will be back tonight the comedy podcast that
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: I'm part of, which will be at ten pm Eastern.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: Check that out too. That's gonna do it. I'll be
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: back tomorrow. It's gonna be a huge college basketball sleep
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: but at least we get the reprieve of not having
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: NHL or NBA. NBA will resume on Thursday. That's gonna
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: do it for now. Thanks guys, peace, get some wins today. Man,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: let's all get some wins today.