Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 230: The 73-Day Weather Pattern You Can’t Ignore with Gary Lezak

Transcript

230: The 73-Day Weather Pattern You Can’t Ignore with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are breaking down the
• 0:03
  weather pattern, the LRC, and what we can anticipate as we
• 0:07
  round out the rest of 2025 and go into 2026.
• 0:11
  Gary also gives some exclusive insight on some summer heat
• 0:15
  waves that we are anticipating we're going to be seeing.
• 0:18
  It is a warm Christmas week for most of the United States.
• 0:23
  And so Gary breaks down how that is going to impact us as we go
• 0:27
  into the rest of spring and into summer.
• 0:30
  Some weather patterns and some storm systems that we're seeing
• 0:32
  over the next few weeks and how we can anticipate that to affect
• 0:35
  us on all of our operations. Before we hop into today's
• 0:39
  podcast episode with Gary, if you could take a second.
• 0:41
  If you were watching on YouTube, make sure that you hit that
• 0:44
  subscribe button and that you like this episode.
• 0:46
  If you're watching on any of our other podcast platforms, make
• 0:49
  sure that you hit that follow button and also go right and
• 0:53
  review this episode as well. And without further ado, let's
• 0:56
  go ahead and hear from Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
• 1:03
  podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
• 1:07
  industry insights and the update shaping agriculture today.
• 1:10
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:13
  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:16
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:25
  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
• 1:28
  How are you? How is life in beautiful
• 1:30
  Colorado that you're going to be hopping on a plane here soon and
• 1:35
  be bopping the heck out of for the week of Christmas, But how
• 1:39
  are you? How is everything?
• 1:40
  Doing great. Thank you so much, Lauren, and
• 1:44
  happy holidays to you. Merry Christmas.
• 1:47
  I know this is probably going to air like, I don't know when this
• 1:50
  is going to air either, the day of Christmas Day, after Monday,
• 1:53
  after something like that. But Merry Christmas, Happy
• 1:55
  Holidays. Happy holidays everyone out
• 1:58
  there and we're sharing a technology with you that it's
• 2:03
  hard to explain. However, it provides a huge
• 2:07
  advantage for if you're a farmer, a weather sensitive
• 2:11
  business just interested in weather, you want to know what's
• 2:15
  going to happen weeks to months in advance.
• 2:17
  We provide not every single answer, I raise the bar high at
• 2:23
  Weather 2020, but we provide a lot of the answers to help you
• 2:27
  plan for planting, for growing, for harvest season ahead, for
• 2:31
  any of your weather sensitive problems when it comes to your
• 2:37
  cattle ranch and stuff like that.
• 2:39
  So, but yeah, that's what we do. But happy holidays, everyone.
• 2:42
  The weather pattern setting up while we're recording this and
• 2:45
  when we're posting it, a major storm is coming into California
• 2:50
  and it's one of the signature moments of the LRC.
• 2:54
  It's a brand new pattern set up in October, November.
• 2:56
  Lauren, I just showed you some of it.
• 2:58
  What do you think? It is amazing.
• 3:01
  And what I found most interesting about it was you
• 3:04
  showed some side by side things of like, hey, this is what
• 3:08
  happened, these dates, this is what we're anticipating is going
• 3:11
  to happen and this is what other weather platforms are showing
• 3:14
  right now and how drastically different all of that is.
• 3:18
  And that is just absolutely fascinating.
• 3:21
  And then we're obviously seeing it show up right now on what is
• 3:26
  going to be developing over the next few weeks.
• 3:28
  We just had the winter solstice and and here we have a storm
• 3:32
  coming in. We've been anticipating this
• 3:34
  storm coming in when it was going to return and it is
• 3:37
  returning right on schedule. So it's it's it's pretty, it's
• 3:43
  pretty incredible stuff. But yeah, this, this western
• 3:46
  storm is going to produce 6 to 10 inches of rain.
• 3:49
  There may be some flooding California.
• 3:52
  And then as it moves E, it's incredible, Lauren, but the
• 3:56
  storm dies. Why does a storm die?
• 4:00
  Sometimes patterns produce a storm in California and it'll
• 4:04
  intensify as it moves out into Kansas and Nebraska.
• 4:07
  But this one dies. There's this concept, another
• 4:12
  part of the LRC. The LRC has four core
• 4:16
  principles. One of them is the pattern of
• 4:19
  cycling regularly. And as I just showed you on the
• 4:22
  satellite pictures, we have a storm in California October
• 4:25
  14th, and a storm that looks very similar to it on December
• 4:29
  the 26th, the day after Christmas.
• 4:31
  And that's 73 days top secret information.
• 4:35
  If you're listening to this top secret, you're in on a big
• 4:38
  secret, but it might not be exactly 73 days.
• 4:42
  By January 5th or 10th, I may be telling you it's a little less
• 4:46
  or a little more, but it's going to be in that range.
• 4:48
  But it's just incredible. That's core principle #1 the
• 4:53
  other core principle. And there's four of them.
• 4:56
  The one of them is anchor troughs and anchor ridges.
• 5:01
  A through is where storm systems reach peak strength.
• 5:05
  We may we may show you on TVA. Big through a big storm through
• 5:12
  an anchor trough is where storm systems reach their peak
• 5:16
  strength more often, and they're usually stronger.
• 5:22
  An anchorage, Not as many storm systems.
• 5:25
  You're still going to get some storm systems, but not as many,
• 5:29
  and they are more likely to be weaker.
• 5:32
  That doesn't mean the biggest storm of the entire season could
• 5:35
  be near an anchorage, but it'll be dry the rest of the season
• 5:39
  leading up to that one big storm.
• 5:42
  Most likely, that won't happen. The most likely biggest storm is
• 5:45
  going to be near one of these anchor troughs.
• 5:46
  Where are these features? It's hard to see them.
• 5:50
  It's hard to describe them. I'm the expert at it, and yet I
• 5:54
  have a hard time telling you exactly where it is.
• 5:57
  The symptoms of where an anchorage are are this.
• 6:03
  I live in Golden Co. The Denver Golden area including
• 6:09
  the Scarias are struggling. There has been almost no snow.
• 6:15
  I looked overnight there was like a 12 inch base at
• 6:19
  Breckenridge. 1 foot of snow you're skiing on.
• 6:22
  That means there's rocks, there's all kinds of exposures
• 6:25
  and is it could be more dangerous and icy, there's still
• 6:29
  no sign of when they're going to get absolutely blasted.
• 6:33
  They may get a foot of snow here, a foot of snow there
• 6:36
  sounds like a lot if you live in Kansas City or Des Moines or
• 6:40
  Chicago. But in the mountains, they
• 6:44
  averaged 300 inches of snow in Breckenridge.
• 6:48
  They're probably only going to have 150 to 200 inches this
• 6:52
  year, which is enough to ski on, but it's a struggle for the
• 6:55
  skiers. But they're near one of these
• 6:58
  anchor ridges. The West Coast is oddly near or
• 7:03
  just east of an anchor through, and the eastern states are near
• 7:08
  an anchor through. So as we go through the winter,
• 7:11
  most of the stronger storms are probably going to be digging
• 7:14
  down from Montana into Iowa, intensifying over Illinois and
• 7:19
  Ohio into the east. So we'll be watching those
• 7:23
  closely, including one that's coming through at the end of
• 7:26
  this holiday weekend. Wow.
• 7:29
  It is a very long cycle that we're seeing with the LRC too.
• 7:33
  You were saying that we're at a 73 day cycle, which is
• 7:36
  drastically longer than what our cycle that we were discussing
• 7:40
  over the past year has been. So what's kind of the effects
• 7:43
  that we're going to see with that, especially as we go into
• 7:47
  the next two weeks worth of weather and then like the next
• 7:50
  month worth of weather as we go into January?
• 7:52
  And I can finally say that winter is here because the
• 7:56
  winter solstice has happened. As we just go into those, what
• 8:00
  are kind of your thoughts on this long cycle and then on the
• 8:03
  weather that we're going to see in it over the next few weeks?
• 8:08
  When you work cattle, you take pride in a job well done.
• 8:11
  And so does Henry Repeating Arms, one of America's leading
• 8:14
  firearms manufacturers. They just introduced A stunning
• 8:18
  tribute to hard working cattle producers, the American
• 8:22
  Cattlemen Tribute Edition Rifle chambered in the legendary 3030
• 8:26
  caliber. You have to see it for a limited
• 8:30
  time. They're giving you a rare
• 8:31
  opportunity to purchase directly from the factory before it's
• 8:35
  released to dealers. Visit henryusa.com back slash
• 8:39
  Cattle to get yours today. While you're there, order
• 8:42
  yourself a free catalog to learn more about all their Made in
• 8:46
  America rifles, shotguns and revolvers.
• 8:50
  That's henryusa.com back slash Cattle.
• 8:55
  I'm going to include one major forecast too for the summer in
• 8:59
  just a second. But we're we're seeing yes, it's
• 9:03
  close to 10 weeks, maybe a little longer than 10 weeks. 10
• 9:06
  weeks is 70 days. Last year the cycle was about
• 9:11
  six weeks long. So 4 weeks longer is the second
• 9:14
  longest cycle we've we've plotted over the last few
• 9:20
  decades. Those longest 1 was 2004, 2574
• 9:27
  to 80 days cycle that year. That was Hurricane Katrina year.
• 9:32
  The major Hurricane Katrina disaster in New Orleans, also
• 9:36
  major hurricane that summer, Hurricane Rita.
• 9:40
  Rita had a major, major hurricane.
• 9:42
  It was a category 5 hurricane about 75 days before those two
• 9:47
  hurricanes. There were other tropical
• 9:49
  systems as well, so it was a cycling parent of that length.
• 9:55
  I'm not saying hurricane season is going to be active this
• 9:56
  summer. I'm just saying that was a long
• 9:59
  cycle back in 2000 and four, 2005.
• 10:01
  So this is the second longest cycle, close to the longest
• 10:05
  cycle. But it has happened before when
• 10:07
  it was this long. And when it's this long, it
• 10:09
  doesn't mean you have to wait 75 days between storms.
• 10:13
  It does mean you have to wait 70 to 75 days between storms if you
• 10:16
  only got 1 storm in that whole 75 days.
• 10:20
  All right, so that's something to be concerned with.
• 10:23
  But a place like Manhattan and Kansas City, they had, there's
• 10:28
  been 5 or 6 systems within that 70 day cycle.
• 10:32
  So all five of those parts of the pattern are going to cycle
• 10:35
  through a long cycle doesn't mean long dry spells unless you
• 10:40
  were in a long dry spell. And here's the prediction we're
• 10:43
  going to make Christmas week this tremendous warm up that
• 10:48
  we've had 60s and 70s, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day.
• 10:52
  He's over Texas and the South. This huge expansive warmer air
• 10:58
  mass that's evolving right over us right now is being caused by
• 11:03
  one of these anchor ridges and is showing up as a Ridge aloft.
• 11:08
  It is strong. It's producing this warm record,
• 11:12
  warm holiday week when it returns and now we can predict
• 11:17
  when. I couldn't have told you this a
• 11:19
  week or two ago, I would have been wrong because I thought it
• 11:22
  was a 63 day cycle, which means by the summer I would have been
• 11:25
  a month off. That's why it's important to
• 11:27
  know the cycle waves now. We can strongly say on the first
• 11:32
  day of winter, we made this forecast of a major heat wave
• 11:37
  that is going to develop related to Christmas's warm up.
• 11:42
  So when we look back, let's mark this down on this holiday
• 11:48
  podcast, All right, for the Cattle USA, very important that
• 11:55
  when that major heat wave develops, the last week of July,
• 11:59
  the 1st week of August, remember we predicted it on the first day
• 12:04
  of winter for that Midsummer major heat wave.
• 12:08
  Some critics will say, boy, Gary, late July and early
• 12:13
  August, the hottest time of the year.
• 12:16
  That's hard. I bet you I can predict the heat
• 12:18
  wave. That's what I hear all the time
• 12:21
  and I'm like, OK, predict it. All right.
• 12:24
  Was there a heat wave last summer at the end of July and
• 12:26
  early August? No.
• 12:27
  How about the year before? No.
• 12:29
  How about the year before that? No, this year, yes.
• 12:33
  So if you predicted every year you will be 25% accurate, but we
• 12:38
  don't predict it every year, just know that's in the
• 12:42
  forecast. And once we know the exact cycle
• 12:45
  length, which we're close to it's center right August 1st,
• 12:48
  right now it might move by a few days.
• 12:50
  But late July, early August, an impacting major heat wave, 75%
• 12:56
  probability, not 100% and still a 25% probability that it's a
• 13:02
  little less intense. Maybe it'll rain enough in some
• 13:06
  areas that will have the grass green, but I'm concerned big
• 13:09
  heat wave could be impacting for how that might impact your your
• 13:13
  fields. Yeah, definitely.
• 13:15
  I'm not ready to start talking about heat waves yet, Gary.
• 13:18
  I'm, I'm not ready for that at all.
• 13:21
  It's still the middle of winter. I know we're here to talk about
• 13:23
  predictive weather and looking in the long range forecast, but
• 13:26
  I'm not ready to talk about heat waves yet.
• 13:28
  I'm just imagining like, oh, I'm comfy right now and my my little
• 13:32
  sweater and my blanket and oh. Boy, I'm not.
• 13:35
  Here's what you can do, though. When you're at your Christmas
• 13:40
  parties and you're having dinner around the table with the
• 13:43
  family, you can go. God, Can you believe?
• 13:45
  Can you believe how warm it is on Christmas?
• 13:47
  Imagine this at the middle of summer coming back through.
• 13:51
  It's going to be a major heat wave.
• 13:53
  I have an idea that's going to happen, but don't worry about
• 13:56
  that. We can enjoy this great
• 13:58
  Christmas weather. Absolutely.
• 14:00
  It is abnormally warm for everywhere right now for
• 14:03
  Christmas. But Gary, I hear you are running
• 14:05
  away from Colorado for Christmas and you're going to go somewhere
• 14:09
  that is actually going to get you a white Christmas and you're
• 14:12
  going to get some snow so that you can have a white Christmas,
• 14:15
  which is so weird that you live in Colorado and you're not going
• 14:19
  to get a white Christmas unless you leave.
• 14:20
  I'm not supposed to having a snow chasing, but a friend of
• 14:23
  mine does have a house on the water in Lake Tahoe.
• 14:28
  All right. And I, he's going with his
• 14:31
  family. They invited me.
• 14:33
  They said I have my own room. I'm going to be reporting from
• 14:36
  there. It's going to rain, changing to
• 14:39
  snow. That'll be fun.
• 14:41
  That's a ski area. Those ski areas are going to be
• 14:45
  devastated by the rain this week.
• 14:47
  But the ski areas might get 3 or 4 or 5 feet of snow, which will
• 14:50
  set them up for January. Wow.
• 14:53
  Very, very exciting. Well, Gary, as we start to round
• 14:56
  out the podcast, is there anything else that we didn't hit
• 14:57
  on this week that we need to still cover?
• 15:00
  That's what we have next week. Please, precisely it has been
• 15:06
  Gary. We've been doing these for
• 15:07
  almost a year at this point. We are like a month away from
• 15:11
  doing these for a year together, which is absolutely crazy.
• 15:15
  And I can just say I'm so excited to go into another year
• 15:18
  of forecasting and another year of the LRC and talking more just
• 15:22
  about all of this. Have you learned a lot about it?
• 15:25
  Is it is the way it works? Doesn't it take about a year?
• 15:29
  You're like, you know what this is?
• 15:30
  This is real. Yeah, 100%.
• 15:33
  And my husband listens to all these podcasts too.
• 15:36
  And he, I feel like we've both got it figured out at this
• 15:39
  point. Like the LRC just comes up in
• 15:41
  conversations now because we're like talking about the weather
• 15:44
  and I feel like we truly understand it.
• 15:46
  And it took about like I would say about 7 or 8 months is when
• 15:50
  I felt like I could truly confidently understand it.
• 15:52
  But now I feel like I'm at a point where I can teach it to
• 15:55
  someone, like explain it to other people really well on what
• 15:58
  the LRC is. So it's taking a little while
• 16:01
  and it's a very complex thing. It's very complex topic, but a
• 16:04
  really important topic and it's crazy once you understand it,
• 16:08
  how perceptive you are to it. Like now that I understand it, I
• 16:12
  see the weather and I'm like, oh, that makes sense.
• 16:14
  That happened a few months ago or hey, we're in the, we're in
• 16:17
  the blue sky part of the pattern or things like that.
• 16:20
  As we start to get into those aspects, as this pattern
• 16:23
  continues to develop, it'll. Be fun.
• 16:25
  On that note, I mean exactly, and I appreciate it.
• 16:27
  On that note, to finish off, one of our customers is like Gary,
• 16:32
  OK, fine. So you're saying the storms
• 16:35
  coming into California, that's fantastic.
• 16:38
  OK, you're right on. You always say you're right.
• 16:40
  Again, number one, I don't always say right, why isn't
• 16:44
  Kansas City going to have a storm then five days later like
• 16:47
  we didn't last time, because you're near closer to the
• 16:50
  Anchorage, the storm weakens as it heads your way.
• 16:53
  Maybe it will impact you, but it hits the W 100% almost for
• 16:58
  certain. But for Kansas City, it's not as
• 17:01
  certain because they weaken a little.
• 17:04
  System's going to go by. But anyway, it's hard to explain
• 17:07
  to sometimes. Yeah, we're not perfect, but I
• 17:10
  try to be. Yes, absolutely.
• 17:13
  Well, Gary, thank you for your time.
• 17:15
  Thank you for popping on and sharing more about this pattern.
• 17:19
  And as it continues to develop and set up and we know more,
• 17:23
  it's really fun and exciting to get on here and chat about it to
• 17:26
  all of our listeners. If you would check out the show
• 17:29
  notes down below, I've got all of Gary's links down there.
• 17:32
  Our exclusive Cattle USA partnership with Weather 2020's
• 17:35
  link is down there as well. If you want to check out the
• 17:37
  product or anything it can offer you and your operation as we
• 17:40
  round out the year, we hope you guys have a very Merry
• 17:43
  Christmas, a Happy holidays and we will see you next week on
• 17:47
  another episode. Have a good one y'all.