Latest / SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics / 🚨 ALERT! 🚨 - Expect Silver to DO This Soon!... ($10k+ Gold Price Too)

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🚨 ALERT! 🚨 - Expect Silver to DO This Soon!... ($10k+ Gold Price Too) · SILVER / GOLD / $UFD Meme Coin Investing & Global Economics

• 0:00
  Silver has regathered itself and has plenty of energy.
• 0:03
  I think to think next stop is probably it'll, it'll maybe
• 0:07
  pause a little bit in the mid to high 30s, but I think next stop
• 0:11
  is probably mid 40s. And then ultimately, I raised my
• 0:14
  target target in my July letter to 75.
• 0:22
  Today we have a special guest, David Hunter.
• 0:25
  He's the Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors.
• 0:30
  He's known for his bold predictions about the economy,
• 0:34
  the stock market and what's of most interest to us, the silver
• 0:38
  and gold price as well. A few words that I used to
• 0:42
  describe David as he's experienced, he's credentialed,
• 0:46
  he's courageous, and most important, he has a knack for
• 0:50
  making accurate predictions. David, welcome to Ron's
• 0:53
  basement. Thanks Ron.
• 0:55
  Glad to be on. The other thing we forgot to
• 0:57
  mention is we both went to DePaul.
• 0:59
  So that's right. So.
• 1:02
  That's not so bad either. That's right.
• 1:04
  That's right. We're both DePaul University
• 1:06
  graduates out of Chicago, IL. So as, as you see what's
• 1:10
  happening lately, David, in the gold and silver market, it seems
• 1:14
  like gold and silver are making a rather strong move to the
• 1:19
  upside. Now I want to mention to our
• 1:20
  audience that the last time you were on was May about 5 months
• 1:24
  ago, May of 2024. And at that point, I went back
• 1:29
  and watched our previous interview.
• 1:30
  You'd predicted $35 or $36 silver in the near term.
• 1:35
  And you talked about the possibility of moving up towards
• 1:38
  $3000 gold here in what you call kind of the the pre bust, I
• 1:42
  guess like melt up phase. What's your assessment on what's
• 1:45
  going on right now? Yeah.
• 1:48
  So I think we are in that move. We got up to maybe 33 last
• 1:52
  summer and then backed off for a couple months and we've silver
• 1:57
  has regathered itself and has plenty of energy.
• 2:01
  I think to think next stop is probably it'll, it'll maybe
• 2:04
  pause a little bit in the mid to high 30s, but I think next stop
• 2:08
  is probably mid 40s. And then ultimately I raised my
• 2:12
  target target in my July letter to 75.
• 2:16
  So I had had a $60.00 target, what I call pre bus target and I
• 2:22
  raised 75 in July. I raised my gold target of 3000
• 2:27
  to 3400 about a month ago. So I think they're both in gear.
• 2:32
  I think they have, you know, particularly silver's been a
• 2:35
  very frustrating trade for people.
• 2:38
  You know, I had its big run in the first decade of this century
• 2:42
  and you know, in 2011 topped out and it's been a a long slog
• 2:47
  since some good years, but really a a long period where
• 2:51
  people were disappointed. We are in, I think it's all
• 2:55
  systems go now for the precious metals.
• 2:58
  And I'd expect both those targets, you know, the 3400 for
• 3:03
  gold, 75 for silver, I think very possibly could reach those
• 3:08
  in the first quarter. So those are big runs.
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  I mean, yeah, you got to get above the old highs on silver,
• 3:15
  which was 48, I think back in 2011.
• 3:18
  So, you know, it's not going to go straight to 75 without a
• 3:21
  blink. But I think, you know, I think
• 3:23
  in the next six months you've got me a lesson.
• 3:26
  Probably six months. You've got a big run coming in
• 3:29
  the metals. Wow, that's good news.
• 3:31
  You're, you're, you're becoming more and more popular with the
• 3:35
  Ron's basement community. As you, as you talk about those
• 3:38
  numbers, do you feel like silver in particular?
• 3:42
  I mean, a lot of people look at the gold.
• 3:43
  Do you look at the gold to silver ratio that right now I
• 3:46
  think that's around 80 to one. Do you factor that in when
• 3:50
  you're looking at these price targets at all?
• 3:52
  Yeah, let me put it this way. I'm aware of it.
• 3:53
  It doesn't really factor a lot into my forecast other than the
• 3:57
  reality is that in in precious metal bull markets, silver tends
• 4:02
  to outperform almost every time. And in bear markets, you know,
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  when they're correcting, silver tends to get hit harder.
• 4:09
  So it's a more volatile metal, it's more cyclical.
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  I do think the, you know, the gold to silver ratio was up near
• 4:18
  90. I think it was down to 80 as you
• 4:20
  say. I do think that could get down
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  towards 40 in this move. So if you get 3400 / 75, I'm not
• 4:28
  sure what you come up with, but that's, that's kind of what I'd
• 4:31
  say is where we're headed. So silver, silver definitely is
• 4:35
  probably the, the more aggressive upside move here.
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  And I think that's pretty common.
• 4:42
  Yeah, yeah. Do you, when, when you look at
• 4:45
  gold and silver, I hear some people say that they are some of
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  the most forward-looking markets in the world right there the
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  some of the older markets and they they can see out into the
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  future a little further than some of the other markets can.
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  Do you think they're flashing because of this, the price run,
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  Could that be a signal that we could be in for some hard times
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  after we go through this kind of melt up phase?
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  Or yeah, it's a, it's a good question.
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  I hear people talking about it in relation to obviously
• 5:15
  geopolitics out there with Israel and and Iran, with
• 5:19
  Ukraine and Russia. You hear talk about it could be
• 5:24
  signaling something, you know, problematic in terms of the
• 5:29
  election. I really don't know other than
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  to say technically this was all set up.
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  I saw all this stuff coming. It was just a matter of time.
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  So I I have a hard time really trying to tie it to any specific
• 5:44
  predicting of, you know, some some awful thing coming.
• 5:50
  You know, I do think that the dollar surprisingly this, this
• 5:54
  recent move, you know, gold's had a nice move, silver's had a
• 5:57
  nice move of late. It's really come while the
• 6:00
  dollar's been, you know, moving up.
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  So the dollar has nice move down and then for the last couple
• 6:08
  months I guess has has had this, you know strength again.
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  I think that kind of coincided with the move up in rates.
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  I think both of those are running their course as we
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  speak. You know, they're very close to
• 6:20
  where I think they roll over again and I have a very
• 6:23
  aggressive downside target on the dollar, not necessarily
• 6:27
  coinciding exactly with either the equity melt up or the
• 6:31
  precious metal move here. I think it probably takes longer
• 6:35
  or move maybe somewhat into the early stages of the bus.
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  But I have a downside target of 82 on the dollar and you know,
• 6:45
  from we're one O 4 now from one O 4 to 82, the heck of a drop.
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  If it does half of that, that's a big drop.
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  So surprisingly, we've had this metal move, this early metal
• 6:56
  move without the dollar, without the benefit of the weak dollar.
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  I think the weak dollar is going to help drive the rest of it.
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  So that's part of it. You know, I have a, a very
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  bullish call on bonds. So rates I expect to come down.
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  I think that, you know, in the next four or five months that
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  too, I think is going to help the metal.
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  So maybe there's something else out there.
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  You know, I, I just don't have an ability to see it.
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  Remains to be seen. Do you think eventually the the
• 7:29
  the fiscal situation in the United States, the massive
• 7:33
  amount of debt that we have, obviously I think the the
• 7:37
  interest expense now on the debt alone is almost a trillion
• 7:40
  dollars per year. And, and no one seems to have
• 7:43
  any will to, you know, political will to talk about addressing
• 7:46
  this national debt if it continues to expand.
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  And we also at some point get into a little bit higher
• 7:53
  interest rate environment. Does that start to play in to
• 7:56
  the to the gold and silver price?
• 7:59
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• 8:03
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• 8:07
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• 8:10
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• 8:14
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• 8:16
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• 8:21
  will too. And be sure to tell him that
• 8:23
  you're from Ron's Basement. Well, I think, you know, I've
• 8:26
  had for a long time, people think I'm a broken record, but
• 8:30
  I, I tend to look out a distance.
• 8:33
  But I have had for a long time this idea that this cycle ends
• 8:36
  in a melt up, meaning the stock market, you know, ends in a
• 8:40
  parabolic run. And I think we've entered that
• 8:43
  even though we're correcting this week.
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  And I called that I thought we probably would pull back this
• 8:47
  week, but I think between now and the end of the year, we're
• 8:50
  going to go parabolic in the equity market.
• 8:52
  So I, I have a forecast of that, you know, with, and by the way,
• 8:56
  I've raised my S&P target to 7500.
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  So I was already crazy at 7000, but you know, I've, I've
• 9:03
  increased that. But so after the melt up, I have
• 9:07
  the call for next year of a global bust, which I define as
• 9:10
  something bigger than a recession, but kind of in the
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  time frame of recession. So it's not quite a depression.
• 9:19
  It's not drawn out over a decade or anything like that.
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  It's probably contained in the time of recession, 12 to 18
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  months. But it comes with similar to
• 9:28
  2008 nine, except I think worse comes with a financial crisis of
• 9:33
  of major size, very historic. So so that's what I see for next
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  year. The the response to that, what I
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  think is probably the most predictable thing I can come up
• 9:46
  with all my forecasts. It's the easiest thing to
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  predict is that at some point the central banks are going to
• 9:53
  have to respond in a way they've never responded.
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  You know, bigger than 2008, nine bigger than 2020, which was, you
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  know, 5 trillion coming out of the Fed.
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  I am on record as saying I would not be surprised see 20 trillion
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  coming out of the Fed this time in QE or you know, bell sheet
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  expansion and the all the other central banks doing
• 10:16
  proportionally something similar.
• 10:18
  Yeah, that's unheard of. Them is way beyond precedent,
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  way beyond anything we've ever seen.
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  That's where I get the numbers beyond the bus for precious
• 10:28
  metals. It's, you know, I'm, I'm calling
• 10:30
  for a, you know, a big inflation cycle, post bust, deflation in
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  the bust next year and then post bust ultimately leading to
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  inflation of maybe as high as 25% in this country by early
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  next decade. It's in that with all that money
• 10:47
  sloshing around or put put into the system, you and you get that
• 10:52
  kind of inflation cycle. I think you will see gold to
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  20,000, silver to maybe 500 and obviously those are just rough
• 11:00
  guesses as to where we go in that kind of an environment.
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  So, so I don't need a lot of other things to point in the
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  direction of, you know, precious metals having a cycle like
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  they've never had. I'm forecasting $500 oil in that
• 11:16
  cycle. So again, it's going to be a
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  commodity super cycle. The thing that will I think
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  probably lead the performance parade will be gold and silver
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  and obviously the miners with energy not far behind with, you
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  know, the base metals like copper and and iron ore and
• 11:37
  things not far behind that. So you know, there's going to be
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  I think a very different cycle from the last 40 years where
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  consumers been kind of the king. I think commodities are going to
• 11:49
  be the king. Yeah, I think it's going to be a
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  new, a new environment that most Americans unfortunately may not
• 11:56
  be prepared for. When you're, when, when we talk
• 11:59
  about the bust next year, the potential bust and the Feds
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  reaction is it, is it safe to say that, you know, if we look
• 12:08
  back just in recent history, like when the tech bubble burst,
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  when we had the great financial crisis and then when we had the,
• 12:15
  the, the health, you know, C19 crisis in 2020.
• 12:19
  That, that what we have observed from the Fed is that they're the
• 12:23
  only medicine they've had or the choice they've made was to kind
• 12:27
  of stick band aids over things. And they did that by ever
• 12:30
  increasing amounts of a stimulus or money printing that we've now
• 12:36
  gotten to this point where when I look at the US debt clock, we
• 12:39
  have $35.7 trillion in debt. We talked about the interest
• 12:44
  expense. Have we have we reached a point
• 12:46
  where the, the, the, the numbers have gotten so big and that the
• 12:54
  system is actually in some ways more delicate than it maybe
• 12:58
  would have been 20 or 30 years ago?
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  We're also dealing with a new world kind of geopolitical order
• 13:04
  that, that, that really as we hit the bust in 2025, the, the,
• 13:10
  the Fed will be faced with two options.
• 13:12
  Either let everything implode, which they won't do, or, you
• 13:16
  know, give it even more gas, which is what is that what, what
• 13:19
  you're saying when you're saying the potential for $20 trillion
• 13:22
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• 13:27
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• 13:31
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• 13:39
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• 13:43
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• 13:48
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• 13:55
  term, sustainable production of in demand precious and base
• 14:00
  metals. Yeah, absolutely.
• 14:02
  I think the reality is, and that's why I say it's easy
• 14:05
  prediction I can make is if you're, if you're handed, you
• 14:09
  know, if your policy makers are handed the choice between
• 14:12
  saying, well, theoretically we don't want to repeat what we did
• 14:16
  before. You know, we're being criticized
• 14:18
  for all that money we created. And of course Paul's been out
• 14:20
  there saying I'm not going to repeat that, you know, we're not
• 14:23
  going to do QE again. It's easy to say, and that's why
• 14:27
  I know he has no idea what's coming When, when you're faced
• 14:31
  with something like I'm describing, they're not going to
• 14:35
  be sitting there theorizing. They're going to be saying we
• 14:37
  got to save the system. The only thing we have as a tool
• 14:41
  that could move quickly enough to save a system is money.
• 14:44
  You know, you can't go to Congress and say, can you guys
• 14:47
  deliberate on this and come up with an answer for us?
• 14:50
  You can't, you know, you can't think, OK, if we, you know,
• 14:53
  provide some help for, you know, the, the consumers and
• 14:58
  households out there, we can save the banks.
• 15:01
  That's not going to do it. You know, this stuff happens
• 15:03
  fast. You know, when you're in, when
• 15:05
  you're in markets and when you're in the financial system.
• 15:09
  It doesn't happen over years. It happens in a split second.
• 15:13
  You know, all of a sudden you got banks will just go.
• 15:16
  And The thing is, people don't have to go way back to 29 to
• 15:19
  figure this out. I mean, you can look at 2008
• 15:22
  nine and have an idea of how fast it goes from, hey,
• 15:27
  everything looks OK to Oh my God.
• 15:30
  And that's, I think only speeded up when you've got, you know, I
• 15:34
  remind people our, our Federal Reserve's balance sheet in
• 15:37
  October of, of 2008 was 875 billion.
• 15:44
  It got up to 9 trillion last year.
• 15:46
  And they've been trying to bring that down some.
• 15:49
  So it's down to maybe 7, I don't know where it is exactly, 7 1/2.
• 15:55
  And so we're way beyond anything.
• 15:57
  And that 875 billion was the highest level it been since its
• 16:02
  creation 20 in 1913. So we, you know, yes, we've,
• 16:06
  we've gone, you know, off the rails.
• 16:08
  We've gone, things have gotten a lot more volatile and a lot
• 16:11
  bigger than they were. And that's, I call it a super
• 16:14
  cycle when you're, you know, the big long cycle between two
• 16:18
  depressions, the 1930s being the last depression and I think the
• 16:23
  twenty 30s being the next depression.
• 16:26
  So next year is going to feel like a depression, but it's not
• 16:29
  the depression because they have the wherewithal, the printer,
• 16:32
  they're way out of it one more time.
• 16:34
  But but I believe in that super cycle.
• 16:38
  If you look at the history and look at, you know, since
• 16:42
  basically 1940, each successive cycle has gotten more dramatic
• 16:49
  and more, you know, more extreme.
• 16:52
  And each, each cycle, or at least most of them have required
• 16:56
  more medicine to pull us out of it and then created more of the
• 17:00
  extreme in the other direction. So you you get this kind of
• 17:04
  sense where it's just, you know, I don't know what it is.
• 17:07
  I'm not a mathematician, but sine waves or whatever it is
• 17:10
  where you get this kind of, you know, thing where it's getting.
• 17:13
  And I think we're at that, that point where we're one cycle away
• 17:17
  from the end. I mean, as I say, the difference
• 17:20
  between say me and a Peter Schiff or a lot of the Austrians
• 17:24
  who are kind of predicting the gloom and doom now saying this
• 17:28
  is it, you know, we've, we've cooked our goose and it's done.
• 17:34
  The difference between them and me is that I, I see the
• 17:38
  wherewithal because we'll be, if not in deflation next year,
• 17:44
  pretty close. That means the central banks
• 17:47
  have infinite ability to print money because of leads and lags.
• 17:51
  They won't see inflation with all that money for a year or two
• 17:55
  or three, probably, probably a year or two.
• 17:59
  So while you're in the period where it's a deflationary global
• 18:03
  bust, they're not going to be sitting there saying, well, if
• 18:06
  we do this, it's going to create inflation.
• 18:07
  They're going to say, what do we have to do to save the system?
• 18:10
  So because they have the printing press one more time, I
• 18:14
  can I can sit here with pretty be pretty confident that we can
• 18:19
  save the system one more time. They'll be slow.
• 18:23
  That's why you get a bust. If if they saw what I see, they
• 18:27
  could react now and it could be a smoothed out, you know, it
• 18:31
  would be still be a bad recession, but not a bust.
• 18:34
  And I'm not just saying our Fed, I mean also your banks, ECB for
• 18:37
  sure and etcetera. If they react now, we might not
• 18:41
  have that, but they're not going to react now because their
• 18:43
  mindset is still looking back at 2008 nine and everything since
• 18:47
  and all the criticism they got in on decade, the last decade
• 18:51
  and they're saying we're not going to do that again.
• 18:53
  We know we made a mistake. We got to we got to be more
• 18:56
  careful about easing. We got to be more cognizant of
• 19:01
  the fact that with leads and lives, you can get inflation.
• 19:04
  So their mindset is fighting the last war.
• 19:07
  They have no idea. They've already sown the seeds
• 19:09
  for a disaster here and and they give lip source to leads and
• 19:14
  lags, but the Fed really doesn't understand.
• 19:18
  They've already overtightened and and you know, it's not just
• 19:23
  Jay Paul is basically most everybody on Wall Street is
• 19:27
  telling them, you know, look at all the discussion since the Fed
• 19:31
  cut 50 basis points. Well, was that a mistake?
• 19:35
  Maybe they got too aggressive on cutting and I'm sitting here
• 19:38
  going they should have cut in July.
• 19:39
  Maybe they should have cut before that.
• 19:42
  The leads and lags. You know, you won't know that
• 19:45
  they're they've stayed the party too long on the tight side until
• 19:49
  sometime next year. You know, so they're sitting
• 19:52
  here doing their darn best to kind of look at things today and
• 19:57
  judge what's going to be tomorrow and what policy should
• 20:00
  be today. But they're really using
• 20:03
  backward looking data. They're really even though they
• 20:07
  know their leads and lags, they don't know how how long those
• 20:10
  leads and lags are and how things can.
• 20:13
  Seemingly be OK and then abruptly change.
• 20:16
  So there's all of that that plays into this and and you know
• 20:19
  I'm I'm get somewhat protective of Powell even though I was very
• 20:24
  critical of him earlier on and go it's it's really not that
• 20:28
  he's doing such a bad job. Based on what you see today, you
• 20:31
  would say he did a good job. It's it's the nature of the
• 20:35
  beast. Yeah.
• 20:37
  So, so, so as we go into the bust and hypothetically or
• 20:41
  possibly in 2025, we'll see interest rates come down, I
• 20:46
  would imagine. And because people be running to
• 20:49
  bonds and then like you said, right, the Fed still has one
• 20:53
  more, you know, one more trick up their sleeve, one more big
• 20:56
  bazooka to kind of reignite the economy.
• 21:00
  At some point. Does this result in obviously
• 21:06
  the national that's going to continue to spy at some point to
• 21:09
  do do we run out of buyers for our national debt?
• 21:12
  And does that mean that the Fed then becomes, you know, that
• 21:15
  they monetize the debt that they start to actually, you know,
• 21:18
  print money to just kind of subsidized the US government,
• 21:21
  which to me could precipitate the the the kind of the final, I
• 21:27
  don't have the word is dilution or devaluing of the US dollar.
• 21:32
  Is that what leads us into the the ultimate boss?
• 21:37
  Yeah, it plays out that way. What what really happens is, OK,
• 21:40
  let's say and again I'm not going to be spot on, on.
• 21:44
  This is just, but let's say between, you know, second
• 21:49
  quarter next year and maybe before maybe it starts in the
• 21:52
  first quarter next year and, and sometime in 2026, they put out
• 21:58
  $20 trillion. Now it's going to start slow
• 22:01
  there. You know, again, their mindset
• 22:02
  is we don't want to do this. So they're going to be reluctant
• 22:05
  to do it. It's only going to be when
• 22:07
  they're forced to do it because the banks are failing around the
• 22:10
  world and, you know, they only have one tool.
• 22:13
  Then they'll start gearing up. But initially they might start,
• 22:16
  you know, with a trillion dollars and say we're doing a
• 22:19
  lot. I don't know if we should do
• 22:20
  this. But ultimately, they'll get to
• 22:22
  20 over the course of many, many months.
• 22:27
  It's think about what what QE is.
• 22:29
  Think of what that 2020 trillion is.
• 22:32
  That's the Fed buying every bond they can find, right?
• 22:37
  And so they'll be monetizing the debt next year to the tune of a
• 22:42
  level we've never seen before. And you say we're really going
• 22:45
  to find 20 trillion bonds. Well, guess what?
• 22:47
  The government's going to be print.
• 22:49
  The government's going to be issuing debt right alongside
• 22:52
  that monetizing of the debt. So there's going to be plenty of
• 22:55
  new debt that we monetize. There won't be The reason I can
• 22:59
  predict a zero percent 10 year at the bottom of the bust, you
• 23:03
  know, whether that's late next year, whatever is because I'm
• 23:08
  not worried about whether Japan's going to be selling
• 23:10
  bonds or buying bonds. I'm not worried about whether
• 23:12
  China's going to be getting rid of the rest of their treasuries.
• 23:15
  I'm not worried about whether Europe's going to be buying in
• 23:17
  our bonds or whoever, whether the, you know, insurance company
• 23:20
  is going to be buying in our bonds.
• 23:22
  The Fed's going to be buying every bond they can the get
• 23:24
  money into the system. So for next year at least you've
• 23:29
  got a buyer that's going to be insatiable and have an
• 23:33
  insatiable appetite. So, so that's why rates will go,
• 23:37
  will plummet. You know, they'll, they'll head
• 23:39
  down here. I think we're close to the end
• 23:41
  on this correction rates. They'll, they'll head down here.
• 23:44
  I think you might even see 2 1/2 by early next year, you know,
• 23:50
  certainly 3% and maybe 2 1/2 and then maybe you get a little
• 23:54
  correction or something, who knows.
• 23:56
  But ultimately the big move from 2 1/2 three might even if it
• 24:01
  backs up a little in the correction, be above that down
• 24:04
  to 0. Most of that move will be coming
• 24:07
  during the monetization, you know, during the Fed printing
• 24:10
  money like crazy. And this is going to happen in
• 24:12
  Canada, Australia, Europe, Japan, China's already starting
• 24:17
  to do it. So but the, the real story which
• 24:21
  you, you were really alluding to is once, once we get through the
• 24:25
  bust and we have a recovery, the first year out of out of a bust,
• 24:30
  because you're coming out of deflation, that first year will
• 24:33
  be pretty low inflation. If not, you know, it'll be not
• 24:36
  nil, but it'll be low, low single digit, probably second
• 24:40
  year might, might move up to high single digits.
• 24:43
  By the third year, you're into double digits and you know, 5-6
• 24:46
  years out you're into the 15 to 20% range on the way to 25.
• 24:52
  The first year or two, the Fed, you know, if you're issuing, if
• 24:56
  you're issuing that much more debt, you're going to have that
• 24:59
  much more interest expense even if rates have fallen.
• 25:04
  And so the first year or two this, the government's going to
• 25:09
  think, OK, we can do MMT, you know, we'll just load more bonds
• 25:13
  to pay more interest, you know, like.
• 25:16
  This it worked. Yeah, it worked.
• 25:18
  And then, but by the time rates start ramping up and I think
• 25:23
  ramping up, we've already seen it doesn't take much above 5% to
• 25:27
  get you in trouble once you get 567-8910 on the way to 15 and on
• 25:32
  the way to 20. And that's for debt, that's for
• 25:36
  Treasury interest rates. We'll be bankrupt.
• 25:39
  I mean, we won't be able to, you know, because, because what
• 25:42
  happens once you get above a certain level, and I think that
• 25:45
  level isn't much above 5%, but certainly above 7 or eight.
• 25:50
  Once you get there any more money you print monetizing that
• 25:54
  debt, it very quickly turns into more inflation and more and
• 25:59
  higher interest rates. So that you you very soon run
• 26:03
  into the situation where we just sold more debt.
• 26:07
  We just floated more debt to pay more interest.
• 26:09
  But but that's already been eaten up by the rise in interest
• 26:12
  rates, by the rise in inflation. So it's as I say, it's like,
• 26:16
  it's like having a fire hose out in the California forest fires
• 26:22
  with gasoline pouring out of that.
• 26:24
  That hose, you know, it just ignites a much bigger fire.
• 26:27
  It's doing you no good. That's making it worse.
• 26:30
  And so I think whether it's 2027 or 8 somewhere out there, I
• 26:36
  think you really shut down the Fed and you certainly shut it
• 26:40
  down. When you get even later than
• 26:41
  that in the decade where they are no longer able to print
• 26:45
  money, that will be the first time.
• 26:47
  Well, we've had temporary periods of that, like recently,
• 26:51
  you know, when inflation got up over 5 towards 9, we had it back
• 26:56
  in the early 80s. But very rarely have we had a
• 26:59
  situation where the Fed says we can't come to the rescue.
• 27:03
  That will be the situation like this decade where we'll be faced
• 27:07
  with an economy that's really troubled by very high inflation
• 27:11
  and consumer in trouble, a government that doesn't have the
• 27:17
  ability to float debt because the capital markets saying who
• 27:21
  wants that? You know, I've done the I've
• 27:23
  done the work up on on your debt.
• 27:27
  You can't pay your interest, nevermind service to debt.
• 27:31
  So we're not we're no longer interested in that.
• 27:34
  And you're buyer last resorts out of the business because it
• 27:37
  just inflates the economy inflates to cause more
• 27:40
  inflation. Once you get there, the game's
• 27:42
  over. We've, we've been able to play
• 27:45
  this game for probably the last 40 years, certainly last 30 to
• 27:51
  make it look like we're still a growing economy, make it look
• 27:54
  like our standard living hasn't been sinking, but it has.
• 27:57
  And what's been and, and more lately in the last recent years,
• 28:02
  our government's expanding our private sectors, you know, in
• 28:06
  the in the dumps except for, you know, exceptional industries
• 28:10
  like AI and tech etcetera. But but basically that game's
• 28:15
  going to be very clearly over and Arsenal living is going to
• 28:19
  better, you know, reach reality. And I think when you get to, and
• 28:25
  I say the twenty 30s, but I don't mean 20-30 or 2031, I
• 28:29
  would guess more towards 2033 to 35.
• 28:33
  I think you have a collapse of the global system because this
• 28:36
  will be repeated around the world.
• 28:38
  It's not just the US, it's done this.
• 28:40
  So basically all the world is going to be, you know, you can't
• 28:44
  have 320 trillion debt out there.
• 28:48
  Yes, I realize a lot of it's sovereign debt, but I just
• 28:50
  explained why sovereign debt is not going to be worth a damn.
• 28:54
  You can't have 320 trillion debt and once we get through the bus,
• 28:58
  probably have 450 to 500 trillion in debt and and come up
• 29:03
  with an an equation when inflation is high double digit,
• 29:08
  that can be solved. It just collapses unto itself.
• 29:12
  And I that's the difference between next year, which will
• 29:15
  be, in my opinion, the biggest downturn and certainly based
• 29:19
  financial crisis in the post World War 2 era.
• 29:22
  But it's so bigger than 2008 nine.
• 29:25
  But the difference between that and a total collapse in the mid
• 29:30
  twenty 30s where basically I describe it as, I don't say this
• 29:35
  to be to exaggerate or scare people, but it's just what I
• 29:41
  think is likely coming is that you can as a scenario, not a
• 29:45
  forecast, But you could have an economy in the dumps where
• 29:49
  unemployment's 50% or higher, no welfare system to speak of, no
• 29:54
  unemployment to speak of, Social Security and Medicare, if not
• 29:58
  totally done, you know, you're getting very small partial
• 30:02
  payments and a government that's just is nowhere to be seen to be
• 30:07
  able to help you. So it's going to be all out
• 30:10
  there, everybody fighting for themselves.
• 30:13
  You know, I can't, I can't even pretend to know what kind of
• 30:17
  awful situation we'll be facing. Yeah, yeah.
• 30:20
  Well, and, and and I think it's important to recognize that what
• 30:24
  you're talking about is rooted in mathematics.
• 30:27
  And I love the saying mathematics shows no forgiveness
• 30:31
  on the altar of truth, right? Like this is just kind of the
• 30:34
  facts of what what is going on. I used to use this analogy, you
• 30:39
  know, you talked about the game, you know, and it does, it kind
• 30:41
  of feels like a game that's been played by the Fed and I guess to
• 30:45
  our by our government to a certain extent to to kind of
• 30:48
  perpetuate the system that it's kind of like a fun house.
• 30:51
  You know what a kid up at A at a kids fun fair, you go inside the
• 30:54
  fun house and they got a smoke machine and mirrors and
• 30:56
  everybody's having fun. But at some point they flip the
• 30:59
  lights on, right? And you know, the fun's over
• 31:02
  the, you know, the distorted mirrors and this and that that
• 31:05
  reality eventually sets in for the world.
• 31:09
  And it's, I think it's, we're talking about the whole world at
• 31:12
  this point. First Mining Gold is a
• 31:15
  development company advancing 2 of the largest gold projects in
• 31:19
  Canada. Spring Pole in Ontario and Du
• 31:22
  Parque located in Quebec, each already has 5 million ounces of
• 31:27
  gold reserves, but exploration initiatives are underway at both
• 31:32
  projects to find even more gold. First Mining is well financed,
• 31:37
  has zero and owns an interest in four additional Canadian gold
• 31:42
  development projects. And I, I will say it, it's
• 31:47
  because obviously with social media, it's, it's one of the
• 31:50
  main themes out there. Everybody wants to point the
• 31:53
  figure finger at, you know, Jay Powell or Christine Lagarde or,
• 32:00
  you know, our policy makers in General Congress.
• 32:02
  And they all deserve some blame. They all deserve, you know, they
• 32:05
  didn't do this well, but in reality, I don't think.
• 32:09
  And of course, the other theme that's out there is that this is
• 32:12
  all deliberate. They're trying to bring us down.
• 32:14
  And there's some truth in that, but not so much here in, in
• 32:18
  terms of the financials. I think this is just they're,
• 32:22
  they're too myopic in what they see their, their understanding
• 32:25
  of things goes so far. I, you know, I feel blessed that
• 32:28
  I have, whether it's my brain type or whether it's 50 years of
• 32:32
  doing this or the combination of both, or whether I just, you
• 32:36
  know, whether it's my education background, whatever it is, I
• 32:39
  have a wherewithal to see a bigger picture than a lot of
• 32:43
  these policy makers are obviously able to see.
• 32:46
  I, they're not trying to, they, they have no idea what we just
• 32:50
  described is coming. I mean, they, they think they
• 32:54
  are doing their job to try to avoid those kind of things.
• 32:57
  You know, 2008 9 was a real wake up call, but I think they think
• 33:03
  that now they're more on on guard for things like that and
• 33:07
  they think they can avoid it. You know, again, this is where I
• 33:11
  think 50 years of doing this and, and essentially cycles all
• 33:15
  through that time does come in handy as I do know how fast this
• 33:18
  stuff can come on you and not be seen.
• 33:21
  And so So what I would say is I almost think, you know, the
• 33:26
  Kondrati of wave or, you know, other big waves out there or,
• 33:31
  you know, what's the the book out there right now talking more
• 33:34
  demographically that the big turning or whatever it is.
• 33:40
  Those things I think fit in. In other words, this is almost
• 33:43
  inevitable. It's human nature.
• 33:45
  It's it's you know, you, you've got so far away from the Great
• 33:50
  Depression. You don't know what got us into
• 33:52
  the Great Depression. And you, you, even though 2008
• 33:57
  Nine is fresh in our minds, I think they don't realize, as I
• 34:02
  explained before, they are fighting that war.
• 34:05
  That's part of why we're going to have this is because they're,
• 34:09
  you know, they're trying so hard not to do what happened 2008
• 34:14
  nine that they're going to be slow to react.
• 34:17
  And it's that slowness in reacting that leads to a much
• 34:20
  deeper problem. You know, just like I, I look at
• 34:23
  the current makeup of the FOMC and their approach to things and
• 34:28
  it's been basically a fed approach all along.
• 34:30
  But, you know, you have a committee and they're trying so
• 34:35
  hard not to repeat mistakes of the past and they're they're
• 34:39
  trying to do it by micromanaging and, you know, looking at that
• 34:44
  right up-to-the-minute and, you know, just before the meeting
• 34:47
  and trying to, you know, not not make mistakes.
• 34:52
  And yet so much of this stuff requires much longer vision
• 34:57
  won't have it. You know, it's just not their
• 34:59
  approach. So and and by by saying we don't
• 35:04
  want to and again, encouraged by Wall Street to say we don't want
• 35:10
  to reignite inflation. So we're going to be very
• 35:14
  cautious in in dropping rates. It's that very policy that's
• 35:20
  going to put you behind the ball and cause you to then have to
• 35:23
  gear up very, very aggressively. So the very thing you're trying
• 35:27
  to avoid is actually what you're going to cause.
• 35:29
  And again, they're not doing it on purpose.
• 35:31
  It's just it's it's how this stuff works.
• 35:35
  Yeah, it's, it's fascinating. Sometimes it feels like they're
• 35:37
  they're trying to repair the car as it's driving down the
• 35:41
  highway, right? Like we got to deal with these
• 35:43
  issues as they're popping up. And I think it becomes a very
• 35:48
  tricky situation the further down the road we go.
• 35:51
  And, you know, you talked about the, the, the O 8 great
• 35:54
  financial crisis. Do you think that part of the
• 35:57
  problem also is that they can look back at that and say, well,
• 36:02
  sure, it was horrible. And we were, you know, on the on
• 36:04
  the precipice of some really bad things happening.
• 36:07
  But but look, we were able to fix it.
• 36:09
  We, you know, in my opinion, they kind of papered over
• 36:12
  everything. There weren't many consequences.
• 36:16
  And so now they think what we can deal with anything while we
• 36:18
  dealt with, you know, the, the, the, the, the pandemic and by
• 36:23
  printing like we can just this works.
• 36:25
  So we can continue to do that same thing.
• 36:27
  And, but eventually there are consequences.
• 36:30
  Eventually, you know they're they're the the the hens do come
• 36:33
  home to roost for, for lack of a better way to describe it.
• 36:36
  Yeah, I I actually think it's the opposite.
• 36:38
  I think they really, I strongly believe we got to do things to
• 36:43
  make sure we don't go back there.
• 36:45
  In other words, that was horrific.
• 36:47
  And we, you know, we pulled ourselves back from the Cliff
• 36:50
  when the commercial paper market dried up and Gee, he was rumored
• 36:54
  to go under and you know, all of that.
• 36:57
  We, we dodged the bullet there. We don't want to take that
• 36:59
  chance again. So they're, they think they're
• 37:02
  doing the things to avoid that. And same thing they, you know,
• 37:06
  Powell tell you, you know, 5 trillion coming out of the Fed
• 37:10
  in, in the pandemic. We don't want to repeat that,
• 37:14
  You know, where he's really saying, I don't want to do Kiwi
• 37:17
  again. You know, I, I, we're going to
• 37:19
  be very cautious about how we draw down the balance sheet, but
• 37:24
  we want to draw it down. And I don't know where there's
• 37:26
  ultimately think they're going to take it, but they're not,
• 37:29
  they're not going to be able to do that.
• 37:30
  But I think it really is coming from good intentions to avoid
• 37:34
  what we had. I don't think they really are.
• 37:36
  So we can do that again, I think quite the opposite.
• 37:40
  But it, you know, again, and I see this, I see this, it's kind
• 37:46
  of parallel and, and funny, but I see this from a lot of retail
• 37:49
  people on Twitter, everybody from an investment standpoint,
• 37:54
  everybody wants to compare, you know, the current market to some
• 37:59
  other market, You know, looking back to 2008 nine or 29 and I
• 38:04
  hate overlays. I go, those overlays never work.
• 38:07
  You know, somebody will show you a perfect setup where it's
• 38:11
  tracking just like 29 or it's tracking just like 2008 nine or
• 38:15
  whatever. And I go, those are made to fool
• 38:18
  you. I mean, you know, they're going
• 38:20
  to they're going to take you there and then also deviate
• 38:22
  completely. You know, history rhymes, but
• 38:26
  doesn't repeat like that. And it's similar, I think, for
• 38:30
  the policy makers where the only thing they've got is history.
• 38:35
  And they're looking at history, but they're not really
• 38:37
  understanding that, yeah, it's going to rhyme, but there's
• 38:40
  going to be some curveball that you guys are not prepared for,
• 38:43
  you know? And in this case, what what they
• 38:47
  are not prepared for is debt that's so far above where it was
• 38:53
  in 2008 nine. It was off the rails then, you
• 38:56
  know, but 320 trillion global debt and derivatives there are
• 39:01
  way beyond what we had in 2008, nine to the tune of quadrillions
• 39:05
  in notional value. So.
• 39:06
  So I mean, that's leverage is what jerks you around.
• 39:09
  Leverage is what takes you from things seemingly orderly to all
• 39:14
  of a sudden, Oh my God, you know, and that's, I think that's
• 39:18
  if, if there's one defining thing that's going to cause the
• 39:24
  bust, it's, it's this massive leverage that nobody has a
• 39:27
  handle on. Nobody could have a handle on.
• 39:29
  It's just so big. The derivatives market.
• 39:32
  Derivatives and debt, obviously derivatives are the leverage on
• 39:36
  the markets and that's the leverage on the system.
• 39:40
  And I just think they're both. So beyond anything we can
• 39:44
  manage, and you're right, I mean, derivatives more than
• 39:47
  that, we kind of can look at that in a big picture.
• 39:51
  Derivatives. There's nobody in the world that
• 39:53
  I think can really capture what it what does this mean, other
• 39:57
  than when it goes wrong, it's going to really go wrong.
• 40:00
  Is it? Is it, Is it accurate to say
• 40:03
  that the derivatives for the, for the benefit of me and for
• 40:06
  the viewers as well that they're almost like bets on other bets
• 40:10
  that have been made in the in the market that their that their
• 40:13
  bets on? OK, is that and, and that we
• 40:15
  don't, we don't really know how much is out there.
• 40:19
  And like you said, the, the actual world debt level is
• 40:22
  enough to begin with. But then you add on these
• 40:25
  quadrillions of derivative bets that that like they could
• 40:29
  explode potentially really quickly if things start to
• 40:32
  become a little bit unraveled. Yeah, I think I, I just think
• 40:36
  leverage and you know, we went to school, Sure you got
• 40:39
  something in your classes like this, but leverage, leverage
• 40:42
  works both ways. On the way up, it enhances
• 40:45
  things. On the way down it really speeds
• 40:48
  up and magnifies your. Product.
• 40:49
  Let me let me interject something.
• 40:50
  And I've also learned that in real life as well.
• 40:53
  So go. Go.
• 40:55
  Yeah, yeah, that's true. And many people do every cycle,
• 40:58
  you know, and it's funny. And again, you know, going back
• 41:05
  to saying we, you know, we've, we've been, we've skipped
• 41:08
  generations or many generations past the Great Depression.
• 41:11
  So there's really nobody, not very many people around that
• 41:14
  caution you from the mistakes we're making again.
• 41:18
  But it's the same thing. Cycle to cycle people, people
• 41:21
  will repeat these mistakes. You know, you, you see, they may
• 41:25
  do it a little differently or they may think they are guarding
• 41:27
  against, you know, real estate problems and stuff.
• 41:31
  But we we get into these extreme places where, you know, you feel
• 41:36
  like home prices are moving away from you, You better buy now,
• 41:39
  even though you know that you might be buying at the top.
• 41:43
  I hear that a lot, but I don't like people who are first time
• 41:46
  buyers, let's say, or, you know, afraid to miss out.
• 41:50
  I don't think they really realize what what it means to
• 41:53
  say you bought at the top and then they have a cycle come out
• 41:56
  from under you. I mean, they're really
• 41:59
  bankrupted many, you know, contractor and you know, many a
• 42:04
  home builder, etcetera. And it bankrupts many a home
• 42:07
  buyer that buys at the wrong time.
• 42:09
  So it just, you know, I, I just think people have short
• 42:13
  memories. Yeah, yeah.
• 42:15
  Or no memories. Or no or no, right?
• 42:18
  If you buy a house for $600,000 with a with a full mortgage and
• 42:24
  two years later it's worth $250,000, you're in a you're in
• 42:27
  a pretty bad spot. I'm not sure we're going to see
• 42:31
  that, but even if it even if it drops 30 or 40%, if you if you
• 42:36
  if you really extended yourself to get this house because you're
• 42:39
  afraid if I don't buy now, it's going to be worth 700.
• 42:42
  I can't afford that right. You know if it goes from 600 to
• 42:47
  say 400, you're a hurt dude. Yeah, right, right, right.
• 42:52
  Exactly. So I want to make sure I have
• 42:54
  this right. And, and you correct me here if
• 42:56
  I'm wrong, but what you're seeing here in the, in the
• 42:59
  coming, let's say months is a continued melt up in the general
• 43:03
  stock markets and up to and including the silver and gold
• 43:07
  price. As we go into 2025, you can see
• 43:11
  the a bust occurring some, some difficult times.
• 43:15
  Where do you see gold and silver?
• 43:18
  How? How do you see them performing
• 43:20
  throughout, let's say 2025 and 2026?
• 43:22
  Yeah, that's a good question. So first, let me back up and
• 43:26
  just say I think the likelihood is that the equity market tops
• 43:30
  out before the gold and silver part of that's just, you know,
• 43:34
  basically silver is coming from so far back.
• 43:36
  I think they have more room to run.
• 43:39
  So, but it's it's a matter of months, you know, so let's say
• 43:42
  the market tops out December, January, you know, silver and
• 43:47
  gold might top out March, April, you know, something like that.
• 43:51
  And I again, I'm people say you keep extending your dates.
• 43:54
  I'm not giving you dates. I'm just giving you
• 43:56
  possibilities of what you know, what a scenario might look like.
• 44:00
  So I do think they'll probably carry beyond people go.
• 44:03
  So the market's going to be heading straight down and gold
• 44:05
  and silver are going to be going still going up.
• 44:07
  I go the tops. Don't you don't get a top on in
• 44:10
  one day and go down the next. You know, and straight down, you
• 44:13
  know, there's going to be a process.
• 44:14
  So you might actually hit the numerical peak in the stock
• 44:18
  market in December, but then not really, you know, then be within
• 44:24
  5 or 10% of the top for the next three or four months.
• 44:27
  You know, it doesn't mean it straight down.
• 44:30
  So and there's lots there as you can paint.
• 44:32
  So I don't know, but I'm just the odds are I think pressure
• 44:37
  metals are late cycle things. So they're probably going to be
• 44:40
  the last thing to roll over. Once you roll over, I'm guessing
• 44:46
  that silver obviously is the more volatile of the metals.
• 44:51
  I'm calling for an 80% bear market.
• 44:52
  And I don't know whether it's 70 or 80, you know, 85 or 65.
• 44:57
  But 80% is generally where I think we are going on the equity
• 45:01
  indexes across the board, NASDAQ, S&P, Russell and Dow.
• 45:09
  So if you got an 80% bear market in stocks, silver's probably
• 45:15
  going to get hit pretty darn. I think everything get hit the
• 45:17
  boss except for say treasuries. Silver could, you know, let's
• 45:23
  say it goes to 75, it could come back here, it could come back to
• 45:28
  20. You know, it wouldn't surprise
• 45:30
  me to have silver be, you know, down 50, sixty, 70%.
• 45:36
  That's still less than the equity market maybe, and maybe
• 45:39
  it'll do that much. But gold on the other is not
• 45:42
  going to be that kind of a decline.
• 45:45
  But if gold goes, if I'm right about 3400 on the upside, you
• 45:48
  know, wouldn't surprise me to see gold back to, you know,
• 45:53
  somewhere close to where it broke out at 2100.
• 45:56
  So you know, somewhere in the low 2000s, so much less, you
• 46:01
  know, half of what the equity markets doing, but still a good
• 46:04
  hit. So I tell people, if you're, if
• 46:08
  you're, you know, you're looking at gold and silver today.
• 46:10
  They're early on in big moves, but just understand, you know,
• 46:15
  you have to make your own decisions, but just understand
• 46:18
  you can't, don't, don't think it's a buy and hold and you're
• 46:23
  going to be comfortable through that hole.
• 46:24
  Because as I say, it's like I probably said this to you last
• 46:28
  time, but it's like standing on the South rim of the Grand
• 46:30
  Canyon and looking across the North rim and thinking you can
• 46:34
  walk straight across and not understanding this massive
• 46:37
  Canyon in between. Well, the markets are going to
• 46:40
  be like that too during the bust.
• 46:41
  It's yes, yes, it's a great run from here to say, 2031.
• 46:48
  You know, gold goes from, you know, 27 or 800 a year and goes
• 46:53
  to 20,000. You can say, well, I'm not
• 46:56
  worried about the bust. I'm just buying now because look
• 46:58
  at that. But if you buy now and then you
• 47:01
  go down to, you know, 2100 after it runs to 3400, I'm not sure
• 47:07
  you're going to be comfortable there.
• 47:08
  You know, knowing how psychology works on investors, you may say,
• 47:13
  you may say a 3400. I'm not worried if it drops by
• 47:16
  1/3, but wait till it drops by a third.
• 47:19
  You may say, well, I don't know if it's going to drop by 1/2.
• 47:22
  I got to get out now. So, so it's, you know, buy and
• 47:26
  hold is for those that really know themselves.
• 47:29
  For others, just know there's there's going to be AI think
• 47:33
  there's an opportunity now and there's going to be another
• 47:35
  great opportunity on the other side of the bust.
• 47:38
  Yeah, yeah. And then as we work through that
• 47:40
  bust kind of 2020, five, 2026 and the Fed starts to to react
• 47:46
  with the only thing they can do, which is going to be to
• 47:49
  essentially print money. Then you see the metals starting
• 47:53
  to pick up from that point again heading towards some of those
• 47:56
  targets that you're looking at for around around the 2030
• 48:00
  branch. Yeah.
• 48:02
  I think you know, it'll, it'll come in spurts and it'll come,
• 48:05
  you know, sure what what markets do and that's why I have been so
• 48:08
  right about the melt up is when you get towards the end of the
• 48:11
  cycle. Now I think this stock cycle is
• 48:15
  coming to an end of a 42 year secular bull market, which means
• 48:19
  going forward the whole balance of the decade, they're not
• 48:22
  getting back to those highs. So the highs we reach in this
• 48:25
  run was 7500 on the S&P or you know 55,000 on the Dow or 25,000
• 48:32
  on the NASDAQ. Those highs probably will not be
• 48:35
  seen again in a couple decades at least.
• 48:39
  And I, I say a couple decades because I don't want to go out
• 48:41
  beyond that. But if we get a collapse in the
• 48:43
  system, they're not going to be seen again period, at least for
• 48:47
  for a long time. So, so you'll be in a secular
• 48:51
  bear market, but that means you can have cyclical holes within
• 48:54
  the secular bear for the equity markets, you know, 26 to 3031,
• 49:00
  whatever. And then particularly the first
• 49:04
  year or two out of the bus, there'll be so much money
• 49:06
  sloshed around. You'll have a, you know, stock
• 49:08
  market good triple or quadruple and still not get back anywhere
• 49:11
  near the highs. So you'll have an equity market
• 49:14
  for a couple of years. Precious metals, you know, the
• 49:18
  highs we reached before the bust are nowhere near the secular
• 49:22
  high. The secular high in the precious
• 49:24
  metals comes, you know, early next decade is my guess.
• 49:27
  So, so you know, it's a whole different cycle than the stock
• 49:33
  market. And but what I start saying is,
• 49:36
  you know, the melt up that I'm the so-called melt up that I've
• 49:40
  called for the equity market is because I saw it as the end of
• 49:43
  this long cycle. You'll have a similar thing in
• 49:47
  the metals late this decade. You know, as you draw closer to
• 49:51
  the end of the cycle, the moves are going to be steeper.
• 49:55
  They'll be, they'll be, you know, it'll be sawtooth, it'll
• 49:58
  be a stair step. But each cycle, just like
• 50:02
  20/20/21 was a big cycle. This, this move from 2022 to the
• 50:09
  end, you know, the end that I think is coming in a few months
• 50:12
  is going to be steeper than that.
• 50:14
  So each side, as you move through the cycles, it tends to
• 50:17
  get steeper and steeper into the end and then it finally goes
• 50:20
  parabolic. So you know the move in gold and
• 50:23
  silver after the bust, it'll it'll move nicely early on, but
• 50:28
  then it'll just keep you know, the the slope will get steeper
• 50:31
  as you get into the late later part of.
• 50:34
  It thank you, David. Thank you for coming on today.
• 50:38
  I know my audience gets a lot from from hearing from you.
• 50:41
  I learn a lot from hearing from you and I was thinking I last
• 50:45
  had you on five months ago, it was May of 2024 and you don't
• 50:51
  give, you know, absolute, you know, specific predictions.
• 50:54
  But, but a lot of the things you talked about actually most all
• 50:57
  of them five months ago kind of occurred over the last five
• 51:01
  months. And now as I'm thinking 5 months
• 51:03
  from now, which would put us into early 2025.
• 51:07
  Next time we talk, I'm wondering where we what, what we might be
• 51:11
  facing at that point. It'll be very interesting
• 51:14
  because I agree with you and, and what you say makes sense.
• 51:18
  That's why I followed you closely over the last, gosh, 3
• 51:21
  or 4 years. I know you're very active on
• 51:24
  Twitter. Is that how you recommend that
• 51:26
  people kind of stay in touch with you and follow you?
• 51:29
  Yeah, I don't have a website, so Twitter is where I hang out, and
• 51:33
  I'm on there pretty much every day.
• 51:35
  My handle is at Dave H Contrarian, not David H, not
• 51:41
  Dave H Contrarian spelled wrong. There are fake accounts that
• 51:45
  like to do those kind of things. But at Dave H Contrarian, I do
• 51:49
  get people often times saying, where have you been?
• 51:53
  I haven't seen you for months. And I go, I've been on here.
• 51:57
  I probably had dozens of posts on here almost every day.
• 52:00
  You're missing something. And what you're missing is
• 52:03
  you're waiting for me to do original post to initiate a
• 52:07
  post. Most of the activity I have on
• 52:10
  on Twitter, I occasionally I'll do an initiate of a post, but
• 52:13
  most of it is replying to others.
• 52:16
  So you have to check your settings on Twitter or on X and
• 52:20
  make sure you're set to see everything.
• 52:22
  And I'm not sure how you do that, but you know, you want to
• 52:25
  be notified for replies to be able to see all my activity and
• 52:29
  I am on there pretty much all the time.
• 52:31
  So for better or worse. Right, right.
• 52:36
  Well, and I think also you can go to your, go to your to go to
• 52:39
  your Twitter page as well and then kind of see all your
• 52:42
  activity. Yeah, if somebody wants to just
• 52:43
  check in once in a while, they can go to my profile page and
• 52:46
  see all the tweets and all the replies that I've put up.
• 52:50
  You know, there's a whole history there from probably
• 52:52
  2013, I think is when I joined. And then I also do put out a
• 52:56
  quarterly investment letter that is not for everybody yet, but
• 53:01
  I've been writing it since I when I was on the street as a
• 53:04
  sell side strategist. I started writing it in 20 in
• 53:08
  2000. So I've been writing it for 24
• 53:10
  years. And in the last four or five
• 53:13
  years I've started offering it to retail people.
• 53:16
  Most people that subscribe, pretty much anybody that
• 53:19
  subscribe say it's very readable for the retail investor.
• 53:23
  It's, you know, I'm pretty plain spoken, as you can tell.
• 53:27
  And you know, I do use Wall Street slang sometimes.
• 53:30
  It might not be familiar to something, but generally it's
• 53:33
  very readable. And it's, you know, it's a lot
• 53:36
  of what you hear in my interviews, but you know, it's a
• 53:39
  six or seven page quarterly letter where, you know, I have
• 53:43
  more ability to kind of fill out my thoughts and explain my
• 53:46
  rationale. So I have people that follow me
• 53:50
  closely on Twitter, but still keep resubscribing saying no,
• 53:54
  believe it or not, it's the same stuff.
• 53:56
  But I get so much more out of doing both.
• 53:59
  So, so it's anyway, if people are interested in the letter,
• 54:04
  they can direct message me. It does.
• 54:06
  It is a subscription. So it's by, you know,
• 54:09
  subscription fee. It's there's a cost.
• 54:11
  But if they want information on on it, they just direct message
• 54:16
  me on Twitter or on X and I'll get right back to more details.
• 54:21
  OK, sounds great, David. Thank you.
• 54:23
  And I'm going to look forward to seeing you again in about
• 54:26
  another 5 months. And we can kind of review what
• 54:28
  happened and see why it's hard to believe it'll be 2025, but
• 54:33
  kind of see where where you think we're heading through the
• 54:35
  balance of 2025. Yeah, we've got, I mean, we've
• 54:39
  got an election 2 weeks away. We've got, you know, holidays
• 54:42
  and we've got what if, if I'm right about this forecast, I
• 54:46
  think the the time between now and the end of the first quarter
• 54:49
  is going to be something for the history books.
• 54:52
  Yeah. And we have the bricks meeting
• 54:55
  going on, which starts today, you know, potential for
• 54:58
  geopolitical change. And we have some wars going on
• 55:01
  in the world at the same time. It's Yeah.
• 55:03
  Yeah, you don't want to dismiss those either.
• 55:05
  Yeah, it's crazy times. And some of that may be, again,
• 55:10
  it it's funny how all of these things, even though markets seem
• 55:14
  they aren't supposed to be tied in or they kind of, you know,
• 55:16
  supposed to be tied in, all of these things seem to be all part
• 55:19
  of that same super cycle, you know?
• 55:21
  Yeah, we're we're in volatile times.
• 55:24
  Yeah, yeah, it'll be interesting.
• 55:25
  Well, thank you again on behalf of myself and our viewer for the
• 55:29
  time you've given us, the knowledge you've given us, and
• 55:32
  we're going to look forward to seeing you next time.
• 55:34
  Yeah. Thanks, Ron.
• 55:35
  Hey, you have a good, good end of the year.
• 55:37
  You too. Thanks, David.