Latest / Best of Business / Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist says GDP has had a strong rebound in the second half of the year

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Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist says GDP has had a strong rebound in the second half of the year · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news Talk ZEDB. Follow
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  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Retailers are morning today. This is after Finally we are
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  Speaker 2: seeing people part with some of their hard earned cash
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  Speaker 2: for November retail cards spending up one point six percent
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  Speaker 2: for the month compared to the previous year, setting a
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  Speaker 2: positive tone ahead of Christmas. Nick Tuffley is asb's chief economist.
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  Speaker 2: With me, Nick, Good evening evening. So we're finally feeling
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  Speaker 2: a bit better. We're finally going out and spending stuff.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, we are. We look like we had a pretty
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  Speaker 3: good time and have been spinning up of it on
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  Speaker 3: the durabols. So those green shoots starting to flourish a
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  Speaker 3: bit more.
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  Speaker 2: Are we just spending more because things are more expensive
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  Speaker 2: or are we actually buying more stuff?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it does look like we are buying more stuff.
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  Speaker 3: We did see in the third quarter that the retail
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  Speaker 3: sales volumes as well as the values were up quite strongly,
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  Speaker 3: so nearly two percent over the quarter. So it looks
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  Speaker 3: again like this will be a list in both the
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  Speaker 3: volume and the value of what we're spending, so not
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  Speaker 3: just about prices. It does it like we're buying more stuff.
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  Speaker 2: Great, What about we're getting a GDP number next week,
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  Speaker 2: of course for quarter three, which is backwards looking for September.
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  Speaker 2: But you're expecting it to be better than what you
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  Speaker 2: originally thought, are you.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, we we're expecting point eight percent now, so not
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  Speaker 3: too long ago, we were expecting point five in point
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  Speaker 3: sixteen point seven now point eight, and the manufacturing survey
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  Speaker 3: that was out today suggested that Q four is going
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  Speaker 3: to be pretty good. So at the moment, we're forecasting
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  Speaker 3: previsionally one percent for that quarter. So it does it
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  Speaker 3: like the second half of the year has seen quite
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  Speaker 3: a bit of a rebound.
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  Speaker 2: And also the first half. I keep going on about
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  Speaker 2: this because it kind of annoyed me. And this is
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  Speaker 2: the problem with the data is it's never accurate on
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  Speaker 2: the day it comes out, right, But do you think
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  Speaker 2: we will revise down? They will revise down next week
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  Speaker 2: the very bad number we got for quarter two.
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  Speaker 3: Look, it's very possible that that point nine per cent
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  Speaker 3: contraction gets revised or something a bit smaller. But you've
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  Speaker 3: also got to be very mindful though that when we
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  Speaker 3: with this December release, we get a lot of annual
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  Speaker 3: revisions coming through, so we could see some revisions going
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  Speaker 3: back quite some time. But look, it would be a
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  Speaker 3: good Christmas present if we see that big contraction in
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  Speaker 3: the second quarter get revised to something a bit smaller
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  Speaker 3: than what it was.
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  Speaker 2: Next year, they reckon, we're going to grow faster than Australia.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to grow faster than the Americans, are going
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  Speaker 2: to go faster than the British, and the year after
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  Speaker 2: that too, do you Well, we.
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  Speaker 3: Do have over two and a half percent growth predicted
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  Speaker 3: for next year and some things we're not too bad
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  Speaker 3: the year after that, so look, it is possible. I
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  Speaker 3: think one thing we've got to bear in mind before
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  Speaker 3: we pat ourselves on the back too much is that
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  Speaker 3: we've come from one of the weaker economies recently, so
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  Speaker 3: we're sort of getting back and growing above trend because
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  Speaker 3: we've been in a bit a bit of a rut.
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  Speaker 3: Whereas other countries slightly different circumstances. Australia's held up much
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  Speaker 3: better than we have over the last couple of years.
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  Speaker 3: If anything, it's still grappling with high inflation, and the
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  Speaker 3: US has been sort of strangling itself a little bit
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  Speaker 3: with tariffs.
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  Speaker 2: For example, in fascinating stuff. Forward to next week's number.
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  Speaker 2: Nick Tuffley ASB.
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