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Best Bets Today | The Celtics Blew a 22-Point Lead?! NBA, WNBA, NHL & CFB Picks Wednesday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Well, my Boston Celtics apparently are already in playoff mode
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: because they just did something that I don't think they've
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: ever done in the regular season, but that they seem
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: to do all the time in the playoffs, and that
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: is blow a 20-plus point lead.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: In this case, doing that in the third or fourth quarter.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: The Celtics had a 22-point lead in that game yesterday
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: at Detroit in baseball. Midway through the third quarter, they
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: were still up by almost that amount in the fourth quarter,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: and they let Detroit go on a 23-0 run in
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter and lost the game.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Unbelievable.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Joe Mazzulla, I'm sick of him, dude. I am totally
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: sick of him.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: You have a team like this that's a strong team,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: and a good defensive team. You cannot blow leads like this,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: especially against a team that's not really that prolific of
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: a shooting team. Detroit, they're more of a defensive team
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the Celtics team they'll just go on these runs where
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: they just can't make shots at all and the blow
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the biggest leads imaginable you can't do it man I'm
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: so tired of rooting for this team I'm so tired
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: of it I'm sick of it dude I know they
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: won the championship a couple years ago yeah good um
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I enjoyed it but this is ridiculous like I'm kind
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: of shocked that they were even able to do that
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: with the way that this team plays. I've not seen
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: any team blow this many huge leads like this. It's
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: completely insane. The three-point variance is just really getting to me.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: It's pissing me off. Just fire Mazula already. I love
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: his post-game press conferences, okay?
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: I think he's hilarious.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: He did really well as a coach in the regular
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: season last year, but we're done. This is a failed
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: experiment here, okay? this just doesn't work. It does not work.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Three point maxing does not work.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: Uh, Paul George was good.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: 38 points, whatever. Yeah, that's good. I scored more than
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I expected him to, but it's not enough. If you
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: can't hold a giant lead in the game, you basically
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: have the game put away late in the game.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Uh, yeah. And then of course, fuck the 76ers. Obviously.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Uh, I don't know what else to say about that. Um,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And we were correct about our one play that we
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: had right yesterday. We went 1-1 on the show yesterday.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: The Oklahoma City Thunder with a nice easy win. So
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: that was good.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Good to see.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: And then we lost in the most brutal way imaginable
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: with the hockey play I gave out with the Detroit
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Red Wings.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: They were down 3-0.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Then they decided to score twice in like a minute
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: in the third period to make it 3-2.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: And I'm like, Please don't tease me like this. Please
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: do not. Then what did they do?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, they scored the tying goal in, like, the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: final minute of regulation. I'm like, just don't pretend like
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: there's a chance here.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Don't pretend.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And, of course, it winds up going all the way
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: to a shootout, and then they lose. Yeah, thanks a lot.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I'd rather just have you lose three to nothing, man.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I know this makes my pick look better because it
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: was almost a win. I thought the pick was good, whatever,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: but don't. Don't lose in the most brutal way possible.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Don't almost win. I hate that. I'd rather just take
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: a blowout loss. I'm sick of it.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: And then my reads on college football seem to be
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: fairly good, except I'm shocked at that last game.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: Marshall, South Alabama. I'm shocked at how low scoring that
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: game was.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Had the side correct on that one, though, and on
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: the Florida International game.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: So maybe I should have given those out as plays.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Anyway.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: We have mostly NBA today, but I'm going somewhere else
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: for my one play today. We tread lightly with the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: NBA when it's the opening day or days. I liked
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: the situation yesterday for the Thunder. I don't like anything
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: enough to actually put it on my card today, but
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: scheduling dynamics, stuff that I do. Once the season starts going,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: obviously the players are going to ramp up. We'll talk
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: about the big NBA board that we have today. We
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: have a few other games to talk about here. I
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: do have one play in one of them, and it's
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: probably going to lose given my recent history, but the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: goal is to identify good plays and just fire where
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: you think you have the edge, man, and that's what
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: we're going to do here. That's all going to come
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: up on the show. Hopefully my intro.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Is not fucked up this time. Let's go. Let's get
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: into it.
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: You got a.
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: Slip in your palm and a hole in your chest
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand Now
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: you stare at the chips like they made you this
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: man But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: the floor Your name still means something to somebody for
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: Look at me now.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That fell up
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: by its heart But it don't get the crown Hold on,
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: hold on, stay with me now.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: It's Toad back with you with Toadstool Sports for Wednesday,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: October 21st. Did I get that right? Yeah, I'm not
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: totally out of it today. Let's get into it, man.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: We recapped yesterday. I did it in my.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: The quickest way that I possibly could, basically. Let's run
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: this down, man. We'll go to NHL first. We have
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: two NHL games today. Not where I'm going to be
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: making a play here, but Philadelphia at Buffalo is the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: first game listed on the board here. Both games are
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: at 7.30 p.m. Eastern tonight. This game is on TNT, TruTV,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: so this game will be televised. I don't like the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: spot that either team is in, necessarily. Buffalo's returning home
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, and I'm going to say it again.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: When a team returns home from the road trip, in
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: a daily sport like this. They've been away for more
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: than a week. They didn't go that far, though. They
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: only went to Montreal and Toronto for a three-game stretch,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: but still return home spot.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: A lot of times you get a little bit distracted.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: You have stuff to do back at home.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: They're coming off pretty big games throughout that road trip.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Every game went into overtime. They just lost to Montreal again.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: And for Buffalo, that's revenge, and they still couldn't get
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: it because Montreal's the team that eliminated them. from the
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: playoffs last year so that was a big game for
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: them they fell short again now they're coming home off
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: of that and up next they got Washington who is
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: a better team than this Philadelphia team they're playing right
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: now so this it's not a good spot for Buffalo
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: return home distraction here uh you could uh argue this
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: is also a sandwich spot here so why do I
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: not want Philadelphia here Well, Philadelphia just beat the Avalanche,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: so I don't really want any part of them either here.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: I think they're in a bad spot.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: They've won two games in a row now, so they
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: do have some momentum, but that's a huge win. I mean,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to overlook Buffalo or anything
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: like that, but it's a single-game road trip up to
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Buffalo here. They're coming off beating one of the best
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: teams in hockey here. It's going to be a question
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: of whether Philadelphia can maintain that amount of effort through
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: two complete games like this, so I don't really want
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: a part of them either.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: This game, again, to me, looks like an over.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I think my over opinions were 2-1 yesterday. This looks
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: like a very public over, though. 89% of tickets, 94%
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash on it. Five and a half is
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: the number.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Really, six.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Five and a half is heavily juiced to the over,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: so it's basically six.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the over probably would be how
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: I would play this.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I think you're also, I mean, not only are you
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: getting teams that might be a little bit which impacts
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: the defense more so than the offense or whatever. But,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're not talking about elite goaltending here on
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: these two teams either.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: So the over makes sense to me here. The money
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: is probably really.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Indicating towards Philadelphia a little bit, even though we see
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: 89% of tickets on Buffalo and 92% of the cash
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: on them.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: They're a public side, dude, very public.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And for obvious reasons, the public's not going to come
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: in and play the Flyers, even though they've won two
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: in a row. Buffalo is a minus 180 something price here.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Probably it is too high of a price. I would
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: probably slightly lean towards Philadelphia as far as the side here.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: You'd be able to get them, make like.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: A plus one puck line, something like that on them
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: if you really wanted to do that. I will not
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: be doing it. I will be passing on that. And
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I am also going to pass on Florida-Ottawa, which is
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the other game. In this game, Florida's actually favored on
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the road, by the way, at least very slightly. It's
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: kind of a pick-em price. So the Osweggers are telling
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: you Florida's actually the better team here, even though Ottawa's
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: slightly ahead of them in the standings.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: I told you Florida would be back, man. They're back.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: They're one of the best teams in the league, in
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: my opinion. Ottawa's not too bad either. Ottawa is coming
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: off an ugly loss to the Flyers a couple days ago, 3-1.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So that's an ugly loss. They should be in a
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: bounce-back spot. Maybe they were looking ahead to this game
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: against Florida. Didn't take Philly seriously because Philly didn't have
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: any wins at that point. So it makes sense they
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: may have overlooked them. Florida has had a few days
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: off as well, and they're coming off destroying the Kraken.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: But Florida with a few days off, given that they
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: had a three-game win streak going into having a few
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: days off, the spot looks a little bit more negative
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: on the Florida side to me. Their last game was
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: a blowout win. The last game for Ottawa was an
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: embarrassing loss. So that alone kind of has me leaning
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: towards Ottawa here, but also the fact that the extra
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: days off Probably would help Ottawa a little bit more
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: because they went into it on a bad note, whereas
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Florida had a few days off or whatever it was
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: on a good note, going in on three straight wins.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Not against any good teams, though. The Blue Jackets, the Canucks,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: and the Kraken, whatever. I would lean Ottawa in this one,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: but the money is not agreeing with me on that.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: It's coming in on Florida. 57% of the tickets, 74%
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: The one thing I will say is that it almost
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: looks a little easy to.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Take Ottawa because they have the slightly better record and
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: they're a home underdog basically here. So that has me
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: also kind of staying away from this. But based on
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: the scheduling spot, I would prefer Ottawa here. But yeah,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: it's about a pick and price here.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: The money's really indicating on the over in that game.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I don't fully understand that, but that's what we have
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: going on in that game.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: All right. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: NBA is next.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: NBA is the biggest part of the board here, but
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: there's not a lot. I mean, we can't really do
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: any situational handicapping here to a great extent because we
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: have no scheduling dynamics yet because all these teams are
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: having their, this is the opening day for all these
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: different teams. So that might give a little bit of
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a boost to the home teams in general, but not
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: necessarily all the time. Miles, Miles Isabella.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: What's up? I was like, is this a man or
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: a woman? Should I call you Isabella? Are you a chick? Yeah.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Hell yeah. What's up?
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Thanks for checking out the show. Atlanta, Orlando is the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: first game up. And this feels like it's, I don't know,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: like it's two teams that kind of slip their way
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs every year because so many teams make
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. I don't have a whole lot on this game.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: These teams, I don't think are that much different from
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: last year. Orlando, I think, is the better of the
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: two teams. They are the home favorite here. The money
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: is backing Atlanta strongly, though. Orlando's about a three-point favorite,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: basically two and a half. 54% of the tickets on them,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: 75% of the cash on Atlanta. In games like this,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I mostly have to go with kind of a market read, though.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: Even though I went against the market read with the
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Thunder yesterday a little bit, but that was a situational
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: read on my part. I just don't have a huge
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: situational angle here. to look at in a lot of these, uh,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: games here. So, uh, both of these teams made the
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: playoffs last year. Orlando put up a pretty nice fight.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: If I remember correctly against, um, what was it against
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: the Pistons? I want to say, is that right?
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Uh, and Atlanta, I think got bounced in the first
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: round of the playoffs by the Knicks last year.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, to me, I think Orlando is the better team,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: and I don't understand the market coming in on the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Atlanta side, but maybe the public is kind of thinking
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that Orlando is the better team because they had a
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: better showing in the playoffs, I guess. Although Atlanta put
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: up a decent fight against the Knicks, so I don't know.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I have not a whole lot on that, but the
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: market says Atlanta. Milwaukee at Washington, this is an interesting one.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is now, they're kind of at the bottom of
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the league now, man. They don't have Giannis anymore. This
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: is a Milwaukee team really getting no respect here. And
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: it's at the point where Washington is a four and
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite against them. So the odds makers
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: have Washington actually is the better of these two teams here. Washington,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: 65% of the tickets, 75% of the cash on them.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Washington's been rebuilding for a little bit. They've had a
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: bunch of draft picks recently where they've picked up some
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: young talent. They had the number one draft pick this
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: season and they got DeBonsa, but I believe he's not
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: playing today. I think DeBonsa is actually hurt, so I
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: think he's missing this game, if I'm not mistaken. So
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: it's interesting that even without him, Washington is still favored
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: by this much. And it looks so weird that I'd
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: probably lean that way. I'd probably lean towards laying the
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: points with Washington. I mean, it seems like nobody's really
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: going to want to do it. Even though they do have,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: I guess, a slightly public ticket percentage on them, it
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: looks like the real money is kind of on their
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: side as well. It seems very strange to see the
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Bucs being that big of an underdog to a team
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: that's been at the bottom of the barrel the last
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: few years. But Milwaukee, they're on the downswing right now, man.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to be rebuilding. They got rid
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: of Giannis, as we know. We'll talk about him in
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: a few minutes, probably. And yeah, Washington is kind of
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: more on the upswing. They might be a little bit
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: more of an upstart. team here so yeah I'd probably
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: lean Washington there but not a strong opinion obviously oh
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: speaking of Giannis here we go Minnesota and Miami on
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: ESPN there's an ESPN double header here this is the
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: first game they at least put two pretty interesting games
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: on ESPN here probably two of the better games of
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the day at least are on ESPN here Minnesota Miami
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Could both be playoff teams for sure.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, Minnesota almost definitively will be.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Minnesota, of course, the big offseason move they made was
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: to trade Nas Reed, essentially, to get Lomelo Ball. So
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: they essentially traded some defense for some offense. I'm not
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: sure that I necessarily love that. I think whenever you
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: do that, it actually kind of overrates you coming into
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the season. But I think also on the other side
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: of this, Giannis going to Miami, and they lost Tyler
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Hero and Jaquez, and I forget who else. They got
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Bobby Portis, I guess, as well from Milwaukee there. But
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: that move, it was really all about Giannis. And I
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: think he kind of gets overvalued. Like a guy like
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Giannis kind of gets overvalued in a trade like that too.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: But on the Miami side, I think there's also going
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: to be more of a continuity issue to start out
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the season because they basically got a new star player here, right?
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: So it's going to have to be like, well, how
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: are these guys going to gel with the existing team
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: here and whatever? And it might not happen right away,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: even though Philadelphia looked good last night because I said
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: the same thing about them. But they caught the Knicks
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: in a spot where the Knicks were celebrating their banner,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: and it was a revenge spot for Philly. I talked
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: about that yesterday, so... there were arguments for both sides there.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: For this game, I think there were more arguments for
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Minnesota than for Miami here. I think, again, Miami, I
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: think the continuity situation should be worse for them than
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: it is for Minnesota. With Minnesota picking up ball, he's
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: not going to be their absolute key player like Giannis
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: is going to be for Miami. So Miami's just going
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: to be a completely different team. I think they kind
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: of have to figure things out a little bit first. So, yeah,
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: I like Minnesota in this one, and the money seems
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to agree. 54% of the tickets are on Miami, 70%
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Minnesota. Miami's a one-and-a-half point favorite
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: in this one, so the oddsmakers sort of telling you
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's the slightly better team. NBA, you don't get a
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: huge amount of home court advantage, but for Miami in
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: an opener like this, you probably give them about two,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I would guess.
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: So, yeah.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: At most, you could say, well, at best, maybe one
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: and a half. And you could say that maybe the
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you the teams are about even.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Garrett, what's up? You changed your name. You added sports
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: to it. There you go. You're going to be rooting
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: for the Hornets, of course. Yes, correct.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: You're not going to like what I have to say
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: about that game, which is right now.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Charlotte at Brooklyn. Charlotte, as I mentioned, they traded ball.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: In that trade to Minnesota, they got Nas Reed, and
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: while I like Reed, I think he goes a little
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: bit under the radar.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: I think he's a good defensive player.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's a decent pickup for Charlotte, but does
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: that fit their style? I don't know, because Charlotte is
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: like the Celtics. Charlotte is a team that they're three-point maxing.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: They have a coach that used to be in the
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Celtics' staff. So they're doing the same thing the Celtics do,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: and they're trying to take as many threes as possible, essentially.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: And yeah, if you're making enough of them, it's hard
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: to beat, but if you're not, you're fucked, pretty much.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting about this game, though, is that Brooklyn
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: is favored, even though we all know Charlotte seemed to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: be a team on the upswing, and I still think
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: they are. I mean, they made the playoffs last year
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: for the first time in a while. They should be
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: on the way up a little bit, and Brooklyn has
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: been one of the worst teams in the league the
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: last few years, and Seems like that's not really going
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: to change, but you have to look at the line
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: here and figure out what is this telling you. The
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: line here, Charlotte opened a four and a half point
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: favorite and they're down to a one and a half
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: point favorite here. So I don't know, like Garrett, you
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: could probably tell me, are there injuries going on on
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: the Charlotte side here? Like what's happening here? Like it
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: looks way too easy to play Charlotte here at basically
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: a pick them price.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Oh, a nipple and white are both out.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: So there you go.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: That's what's going on here. So that had an effect
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: on the line. Yeah, Kobe White. I was like, what's
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: his name again?
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Kobe White. And yeah, Knipple. So they're both out.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: So two of the Charlotte starters are going to be
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: out in this game. It's all about the Knipple. That's
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: what I always say when I'm talking about So that's
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why the line has moved like that. Now,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I know I always say that the line tends to
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: over-adjust to injuries like that. So you might say, well,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: maybe there's actually value on Charlotte and maybe the line
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: has overreacted to those two guys being out. But I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: am still going to have to leave Brooklyn here because
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: it just looks way too easy to play Charlotte, right? Like,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: everybody knows Brooklyn's one of the worst teams in the league.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Charlotte made the playoffs last year. How could you possibly...
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: be allowed to lay just one and a half on
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Charlotte here. It looks way too easy to do it.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I would not. I would lean towards Brooklyn in this one.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Uh the money seems to agree 57% of the tickets
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: are on Charlotte 94% of the cash on Brooklyn I
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: don't know how much of that is like I don't
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: think that percentage can really include like a line move
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: like this because I think when the line moves due
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: to an injury it's not actually money that's doing it
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: so that shouldn't factor into those numbers there right that's
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: just a situation where the odds makers are going to
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: take the line down and then put it back up
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: at a different number so that's not actual money coming
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: into the equation you know what I mean so yeah
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Brooklyn in that one Chicago at
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Toronto Toronto's a big favorite in this one Chicago's considered
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: to be one of the worst teams in the league
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and Toronto made the playoffs last year and looks like
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: they're kind of on the upswing again here they just
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: got Kawhi Leonard back which I thought that was kind.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Of an overrated move.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's a Hall of Famer for sure, a
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: future Hall of Famer. He's won, I think, multiple titles, whatever,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: one with Toronto. But I don't know, man. I mean,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: last year he wasn't playing a whole lot. Things just
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: don't seem totally right with him. He's also old, so
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know. So kind of an overrated move, in
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: my opinion, for Toronto. But do I think they're a
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: bad team?
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: No.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: And they're obviously better than Chicago. Toronto's a huge favorite
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: in this game, actually.
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: Well, big.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: They're a 10.5 point favorite basically now after they opened 8.5.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: So the line did initially move towards the Raptors side here,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: but now it looks like some money is buying back
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: on the Bulls here. 57% of tickets and 84% of
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: the cash on Chicago. So the money seems to be
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: kind of swinging back towards the Bulls side here. I
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: don't have a great read on this game at all, man.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: It seems like the actual money is saying to take
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: the points of the Bulls.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really love it.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: To me, I was kind of surprised this line was
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: as high as it is. So it almost makes it
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: seem almost easy to kind of fade Toronto here just
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: because it seems like, well, why would Toronto, when they're kind.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: Of a mediocre team, why would they be favored like this?
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: But then again, I think Toronto kind of overperformed during
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: their playoff run last year. I thought they would just
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: get wiped by Cleveland in the playoffs last year, and
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: they played way more competitively than I thought they would.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland, but maybe that was, you know, maybe Toronto
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: did overperform a little bit there, and maybe my initial
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: read was right, and maybe they're not as good as
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: they looked in that series.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: It's tough, man.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Like, I thought the public might actually be leaning towards
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Toronto here because they looked good in the playoffs last year.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Chicago either didn't make the playoffs or lost in the play-ins.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: I forget.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: If they made the play-ins, it's just because so many
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: teams make it. They were still, like, a below 500 team.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Whatever, but yeah, the money's saying Chicago here. Do what
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: you want with that info, but I got nothing on
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: that game.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Utah at Memphis. Memphis, like I said, I think it
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: might be addition by subtraction. The fact that they got
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: rid of John Morant, and he's now on the the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: new jailblazers.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: I don't think Memphis is that bad of a team.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: You know, they played well without Morant actually when he
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: was there. So I think this Memphis team is all right,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: but Utah is definitely on the upswing as well. Utah
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: has had some high draft picks the last couple of years.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: They got ace Bailey. They got, I keep forgetting his name.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Peterson. Is that his name?
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Darren Peterson from Kansas. it might take a little bit
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: of time for these guys to gel with each other though. Utah,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's still a really young team, but I
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: think they're on the turnaround. They got some good other
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: players there. And the other thing about Utah is they
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: had a lot of injuries last year that kind of ended.
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Their season early.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Like some of their best players got injured and didn't
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: come back last year. And I assume most of those
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: guys must be back here, right? Like, um, They had
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: like Mark, Mark and then.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: Wait, am I talking about hockey now? Is that his name?
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: They have guys with hockey names in Utah, man.
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: Mark and then, yeah, I was right.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: I'm like, that almost sounds like he should be playing hockey.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Mark and him was one of their big injuries last year.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: As far as who they have right now, I think
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: he was kind of the only one. I think they traded,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: they actually traded with Memphis, I think last year to
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: get Jaron Jackson.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: And I think he was hurt too. So he didn't
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: play either.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: So these guys are going to, You know, there might
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: be some growing pains here a little bit with this
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: lineup as these guys have to kind of figure out
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: how to play.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: With each other here.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Utah will be an improved team
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: for sure. Memphis isn't going to be that bad either. Initially,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Utah was a three-point favorite in this game initially, but
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: now it's flipped all the way to Memphis two and
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: a half, even though it looks like Utah doesn't really
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: have any injuries here. So I don't really know what
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: that is there unless the number, the opening number here
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: might just be wrong though. Sometimes there are mistakes on
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: this board here, but Memphis is a two and a
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: half or actually they're down to like a one and
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite now. So some of the money
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: looks like it. swung the number towards utah however the
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: money percentage looks like it is actually on memphis here
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: so there's a lot of weird stuff going on in
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: this market read here with the line moving all over
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: the place whiplash style and then uh not uh being
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: yelled at by jk simmons uh 60 of the tickets
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: are on utah 58 of the cash on memphis though
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: so the money is saying memphis i don't have a
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: huge disagreement with that i think maybe you know the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Chemistry stuff might be more of an issue with Utah
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: because they have more new pieces that kind of have
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: to get going with each other. So that's what I
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: think about that. Dallas at Houston. Houston's a big favorite
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: in this one, man. They're one of the biggest favorites
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: on the board here, even though this is kind of
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: a Dallas rivalry here. But Houston is definitely the better team.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Dallas is still in rebuild mode here. I know they
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: have Cooper Flagg and whatever, but you're going to need
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: more than that, man. As we saw last year, this
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Dallas team... They were still not that good. You know,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: they traded Luka. I don't know if that was to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: free up some money or what really the deal was there,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: but Houston... Houston is better than what they even showed
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs last year. They got upset by the
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Lakers in the playoffs last year, but as I talked
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: about in my season preview, you know, I was pretty
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: high on Houston, and I think there are a lot
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: of professional bettors that actually are as well. Like, this
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Houston team is a good fundamental team. They play good defense,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and they're kind of unheralded because, again, they don't really have, like,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: star power. I would lay it with Houston if I
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: was going to play this one. It looks almost like
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: too many points to lay, although I don't love laying
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: points like this with a Team that's a better defensive team,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: and this is one of the lower totals on the
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: board today. But Houston, yeah, they're like a 9.5-point favorite here,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: or 10, really. It went up from 8. But Dallas
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: looks like a very public underdog here. Dallas, 77% of
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: the tickets and only 72% of the cash. You know
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: I warn about these public underdogs, man. I think that
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: they're a red flag. I think you should, at the
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: very least, completely stay away from them. And you should
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: definitely consider fading them with your actual money. Because when
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't even want the better team, to me
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: that's a red flag. And yes, you need Houston to
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: win by margin here, but I would lean towards Houston
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: in that one.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I like Houston there.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: As far as which of my reads are stronger, I
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: would say the ones that kind of go along with
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: the market here. I like Minnesota and Houston. I think
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: those might be the two strongest today, but I don't
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: feel strongly enough to put any of this on my card.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: The other ESPN game is Golden State and L.A., the
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Battle of California here.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Golden State.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry, he's old, and I think he's dealing with
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: some ankle thing.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, what else is new?
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: So Curry is probably playing, I'm assuming, but he's not 100%.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: We'll see how that's going to affect them. LA is
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: a pretty substantial favorite in this one. They're a six
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, and the money is actually
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: backing them. So I think the public perception of this
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: game is kind of like, oh, well, it's still two
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: pretty good teams here, like two teams that should get
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs again and whatever, and it's You know,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Curry against Luka, basically.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: It's this star battle, you know what I mean?
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: So the public is going to have a tendency to
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: take the points in a game like this that they
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: consider to be close. But I don't really think that's
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: the way to look here. I think I would have
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: to lean to the Lakers as much as I despise them.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Golden State, 67% of the tickets on them. 51% of
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the money on L.A., though. So the money is indicating
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: towards L.A.
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: They're 6-6.5. Now the line has moved up a little
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: bit from 6-6.5.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: If you like LA, I would try to get it
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: at 6.5 rather than 7, even though this isn't football.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: So 7 is not as key, but teams still... Basically,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: that's when they.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Stop intentionally fouling in basketball is when they're down by
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: three possessions.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: So 7 is still... If there is a key number
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: in basketball, it's one of the most key. That, and
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: I guess 2 and 3 pretty much. But yeah, I'd
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: lean towards LA in this one.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: I think LA... Maybe....
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Flying a little bit under the radar. Maybe I guess,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: cause people didn't like how they ended their season last year.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: I think there were a little bit of kind of
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: a public side. Uh, they went up against, they lost
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: to OKC.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. Right.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: OKC just kind of just easily got through them and
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs. Right.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: But LA kind of overperformed in the playoffs.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: They upset Houston in the first round, whatever Houston, just
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: something was not right with Houston in that series.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: I think they had injuries too. Um, But, well, no, L.A.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: had injuries, though, right?
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: L.A.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Was without Luka for a chunk of that, too, right?
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. But L.A. is healthy now, as
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: far as I know. They got Luka back.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: I think they had some other injuries going on during
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: that series as well. Yeah, they lost LeBron, and LeBron
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: looked pretty good yesterday.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: But still.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: And LeBron, I think, actually started yesterday. I don't think
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: he's going to start every game for the Sixers. But, yeah,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think that's that big of a
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: loss for L.A.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, LeBron... this is one of his final seasons.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: He'll be a pretty good role player, but that's what
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: he is at this point. Yeah, so I don't think
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: that's a huge downgrade or anything for L.A. I'd lean
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: towards L.A.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: In that one. All right. Let's see.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Then we got Phoenix and Portland. My first reaction to
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: this was, well, isn't this kind of a revenge game?
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Because these teams played in the play-in last year to
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: try to get into the playoffs, and Portland upset Phoenix
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: in Phoenix. And I was like, well, if that was
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: the last time Phoenix played, then it seems like this
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: would be a pretty crazy revenge spot, and we want
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: to look towards Phoenix here. But Phoenix was the home team,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: so they had another shot. That's how the play-ins work.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: So Phoenix lost that first game to Portland. That meant
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Portland got into the playoffs. And then Portland, I believe,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: lost to San Antonio. And actually didn't look that bad
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: in that series really either.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Phoenix.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Got another shot at it, and they won, actually, against
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Golden State, I believe. So, Phoenix still made the playoffs. So, actually,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: I guess Golden State didn't make the playoffs last year.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: They got eliminated in the play-in, I suppose, last year. But, yeah, Phoenix,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I think, was the last team. Like, they made the
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: eighth seed, I'm pretty sure. Phoenix did, and people don't
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: even remember, I'm pretty sure. They got swept out of
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the playoffs by Oklahoma City in the first round, I'm
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: pretty sure.
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: So....
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Not quite a revenge spot here because Portland did not
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: actually end Phoenix's season. Phoenix got that extra shot, and
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: then they made the playoffs anyway, so maybe still a
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of revenge, though. I thought Phoenix was the
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: better team going into that game last year, and I
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: was surprised that they blew that game. I think we
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: might have lost on the show on that game, too.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: Or if we didn't, it was definitely a lean for
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: me on Phoenix in that game last year, and Portland
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: erased a big deficit late in the game and won. Now,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: for Portland... They're definitely a team that's a little bit
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: on the rise. They have these good young players. They
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: have that Israeli dude, whatever his name is, and they
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: got Ja Morant now, I know, but again, I think
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Morant is like a chemistry issue, dude. Like, I think
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: he kills team chemistry. Like, I don't think he's great
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: for the locker room.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Like, he's a really talented player, but he's had issues
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: throughout his career, and... Basically, it's off-court stuff. That's the
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: problem with him. We'll see how he gels or does
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: not gel with the Portland, the resurgence of the Portland Jailblazers.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: I think I still kind of prefer Phoenix in this one.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: I know the money doesn't agree with me on this.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Portland did drop from a 3.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: favorite here. 60% of the tickets and 85% of the
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: cash on Portland, but I kind of leave Phoenix plus
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the points in this one. not enough to make my
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: card or anything like that. And I guess I didn't
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: really do a good job looking at, uh, the injury
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: situations here. Cause I pretty much just decided I was
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: going to pass anyway. It doesn't look like there's a
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: whole lot going on Booker and bro. I forgot Brooks's name.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Booker Brooks and bridges are all there for Phoenix right now.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: So the, um, The Bs are all there. And Jalen Green,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: who I think they got from Houston last year, and
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: I think he was hurt for the most part with
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Phoenix last year, he's ready to go. So this Phoenix
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: lineup actually looks pretty good to me, except on the
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: interior maybe not so much with this center who I've
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: never heard of.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Oso Iguodaro, I have no idea. Oso, that means bear,
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: doesn't it?
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: My Spanish is not that good at this point, but
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: am I right about that?
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: I think I'm right. I'm looking it up quickly right now. Yeah,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: it does. I'm like, am I losing my mind?
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: So they got the big bear at center there. I
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: have no idea who that guy even is.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Looks like there are no real injuries to be concerned
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: about here with Phoenix. Kennard was day-to-day, but other than that, yeah.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Avdija is the.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: Guy I was thinking of with Portland, the Israeli dude.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: He's like their main dude still, so we will see.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: what Portland looks like this year. They're a young team,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe a little bit unheralded, but, oh, they
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: do have Damian Lillard too.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: I forgot about that. Um, yeah.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: And Morant looks like he's going to be in the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: starting lineup instead of Drew Holiday. Holiday's old, but I
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: don't know, man. Holiday's a very solid player. Um, Morant, uh,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: is definitely, he's like way more of a wild card.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Like I'd, I'd rather have holiday playing more minutes than Morant, man.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: I'd probably, if I was them, I'd probably have Morant
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: coming off the bench, but whatever. Um, Last game is
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: just absolutely disgusting. Sacramento and the Clippers. This is probably
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: the worst game on the whole board here.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: This is bad.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: This is real bad. These teams are both supposed to
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: be a couple of the worst teams in the entire league.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I got pretty much nothing on this. The Clippers are
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: the favorite. That's just how bad Sacramento is supposed to be.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Clippers are a four and a half point favorite. Public
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: seems to not even want any part of that. 56%
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: of the tickets are on Sacramento.
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: Jeez.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: The public slightly leaning towards Sacramento. I mean, yeah.
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: 84% of the cash on the Clippers.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: The money is saying the Clippers, I mean, I have
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: no idea on this one, man. Money's sort of indicating
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: towards the over, and I think the public actually, even
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: though they usually play overs, the public has more of
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: a tendency to just not play the total or lean
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: even a little bit towards the under in a game
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: where they think both of these teams suck.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: But when both teams suck, part of that is that
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: their defense sucks. You know what I mean?
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: So a lot of times those types of games actually
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: go over the total because the defenses are just bad.
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: So.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: Maybe this is one of those games, but you know me.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Like I said yesterday, I should reiterate it again before
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: we switch over to the other sports here, but these
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: opening games in the NBA, I.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Would not really want to play an over in any
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: of these games here unless it's a really good reason
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: to do so. I think the unders are how you
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: have to look in these games because teams can have
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: a tendency to start slow offensively after a long layoff.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: It's easier to just go out and play deep fence
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: because you don't have to regain rhythm or anything like that.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: You don't have to get in sync. You don't have
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: to get your shooting back up to speed.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: You just go out there and play defense. The offense
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: usually is what starts slow. The defense is usually ready
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: to go. So the unders in these opening games make
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: sense yesterday. I think two out of the three games
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: went under, if I'm not mistaken, I believe, um, he,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: I think so. I think the only game that went
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: over was Boston, Detroit. And I was kind of surprised
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: that even happened, but yeah.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Um, I think the other two games went under. The Sixers-Knicks,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: I think, definitely went under.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and then I'm pretty sure Oklahoma City and San
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Antonio also did.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: But yeah, anyway, yeah, the unders in like the first
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: half and first quarter, as I talked about yesterday, also
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: makes sense in these games. Because if you think the
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: slow start is going to happen, then the shooting might
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: kind of figure things out after a certain point. Looking
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: at unders earlier in the game makes sense.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: But the odds makers know that, so you're probably going
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: to get less of a good number on it. Like
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: you're probably going to see that the first half number
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: is significantly lower than.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: Half of the full game overall. total.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: The second half is usually higher scoring anyway because you
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: can get intentional fouls and stuff like that at the
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: end of the game that extend the game and more
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: points happen. So you should expect the full game total
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: to be more than twice the first half total anyway.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: But it might be even more extreme in games like this.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: So be aware of that. You might not get that
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: great of a number if you're playing the first half
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: or first quarter lines.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: We're going to WNBA. This is where I'm actually going
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: to have a play.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: I know WNBA was a loser for me this year,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: and we're not going to turn it around because I
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: think we're like three games below 500 at WNBA this year.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Some bullshit went on in the WNBA, though, man. I
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: think this is a good zigzag spot, so we're going
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: to do it.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to take the Golden State Valkyries here
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: on the road here at plus two and a half
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: to zigzag and bounce back after they lost game two.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: This is a 1-1 series now. I know they have
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: less experience.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Than Atlanta does, although neither team has experience at this
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: level of play. They don't have deep playoff run experience,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: even though Atlanta does have more experience on their roster,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I believe. This game's on USA and CNBC for those
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: that care about that, which probably nobody does. I don't
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: even care about it. I just think there's an opportunity
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: here to play Golden State. Golden State won the first
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: game in an ugly low-scoring game. And remember, Golden State
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: won all three regular season meetings, by the way. So
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Golden State seems to know how to match up against Atlanta.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: But in game two, Atlanta was able to figure something out,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: and they won pretty easily. They won by double digits,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: by 14 at Golden State. So the question you have
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: to ask yourself is, well, why did that happen? Was
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: there any sort of outlier that caused that to happen?
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to tell you that, yes, there was.
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: There was an outlier here that I think might see
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: some regression back the other way here. But also, when
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: you have a win like this, and the team that won,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: like Atlanta here, they're going to have nothing to change
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: after this because everything worked for them in game two.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: Whereas Golden State, things went wrong, so they're going to
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: be the team that has adjustments to make. And that's
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: why this type of thing works, the zigzag. Even though
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I know they're both traveling back to the East Coast, whatever,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: Golden State has to play on the road here. Golden
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: State was still, they were a good road team this year.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: They had a good home record and a good road record. Atlanta,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: I believe, had pretty much the same home and away
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: record as well. So these teams don't have really significant
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: home road splits. So I don't think there's a significant
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: home advantage for either team here and for the regular
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: season uh golden state did win the only game at
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: atlanta golden state did win by five in july but
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: what i'm looking at is this game two here both
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: teams did shoot really poorly still so i know i
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I liked the over in game two because game one
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: went way under, and my thought was, well... And I
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: liked the under in game one, too. Maybe I should
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: have given out a play on that one because my...
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: analysis on game one was well these teams have had
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: over a week off so just like i said with
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: the nba i think the offenses can be out of
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: rhythm and start really slow whereas the defenses are just
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: ready to go so i like the under in game
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: one in this series and it happened but then after
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: that there was bad shooting in game one so i
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: thought there was going to be regression back to some
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: sort of mean and that game two would wind up
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: going over It was higher score in the game one,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: but it still didn't go over. So I think there
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: might still be opportunity to play an over in game
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: three here as well, because both games have gone under
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: so far. And again, we saw bad shooting in game two.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: And I know the defenses are good here in the series.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: These are both good defenses. But at some point, these
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: teams are going to shoot better than this. Like they
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: both shot well below average in these first two games.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Game one, it was really, really crazy how bad they shot.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Game two, not quite as bad. But still, I think
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: there is some regression room there. So I think maybe
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: the over makes sense here. But I like the side better.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I like Golden State here for a couple of reasons.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: This game was statistically close. The team shot pretty similarly percentage-wise.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: They had a similar amount of field goal attempts, yet worse.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: Somehow Atlanta won by 14, which you can tell is
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: kind of misleading here.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Why did they win by 14? Well, it was almost.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Entirely because they went to the free throw line almost
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: two times as many times as Golden State did. Atlanta
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: was plus 14 from the free throw line, and they
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: literally won by that margin.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: So that's something that may not be totally sustainable.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of variance in how fouls get called,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: and I know the home team usually gets the benefit
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: of the calls, but it's also something that seems to
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: zigzag a bit. And when a team got too much
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: benefit of the free throw or the foul calling in
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: one game, a lot of times it swings back the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: other way. So I'm expecting this to have some sort
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: of regression here. That was the main reason why Atlanta
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: won by as much as they did. They went to
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: the free throw line way more than Golden State did.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: So that was the big outlier here. And Atlanta did
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: win the rebound battle, which worries me a little bit.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: But that's, I think, been close in both games. Both
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: teams are good at rebounding. Atlanta did have the lead
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: for the majority of the game, so that wasn't really misleading.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: And in fact, Atlanta actually had the lead in both
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: of the first two games. They had the lead for
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the majority of it. So that does worry me a
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: little bit about looking towards Golden State here because Atlanta
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: was leading... For the majority of both games. Although they
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: never really had a big lead in any of them.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: Until later in. Game two.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: When things just kind of completely unraveled. For Golden State there.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: That was the only point where Atlanta really had a
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: substantial lead at all. But Golden State also had a
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: bad turnover game.
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: In game two.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: And that's something you can definitely clean up. Like as
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: far as the zigzag is concerned. Yeah a lot of
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: times you'll see regression.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: In the turnover department.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Neither team was great. At holding onto the ball there.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: But Golden State. had kind of an excessive amount of
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: turnovers there, 19. So I think that might kind of
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: flip around as well. So I like it, you know,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: after what I think is kind of a misleading loss
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: by double digits here. We'll flip it around and we'll
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: take Golden State in this one. The money seems to
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: agree with this. Looks like you can actually get three
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and a half on this now. So let me update that.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: Why not?
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't we take the better number here? I didn't
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: expect that it was going to change like that. But
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: all right, three and a half you want to give me?
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: Okay, fine. We'll take the 3.5 here. It's a low
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: total again, by the way. 151.5. It has gone up
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: from 149, basically. Money and ticket percentage look like it's even,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: both at 75% towards the under. But again, I would
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: lean over if you're going to play the total in
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: this one. But I still like taking the points of
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: Golden State when it's still probably going to be some
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: sort of defensive battle. And the only time either team
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: had real margin was when Atlanta kind of ran away
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: with it in the second half in game two. Uh, no,
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: neither team was able to run away at all in
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: game one. And for most of game two, it was
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: a close game too.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: So I think this game could definitely stay within range
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: here and, or golden state could definitely be able to, they,
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: like they may be able to win this game outright. Um,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: 63% of tickets and 86% of the cash on golden states.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be agreeing with golden state here.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: This game's at 8 PM Eastern, by the way, for
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: those who care, um, And it doesn't really look like
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: there are any injuries that we really need to be
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: aware of, I don't think.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: Let me see, because usually... Yeah, here's the injury stuff here. Yeah,
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. I mean, we just have injuries
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: that are, I think, not.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Not injuries, like they're not recent injuries, I don't believe.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: So I don't think we have to worry about that
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: in any way. But yeah, we'll take Golden State plus
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: the points in that one to zigzag back after that
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: loss in game one. And hopefully we can get on
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: the right side of a WNBA play for once here.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: You know, it hasn't been a great season. We took
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: some bullshit losses during the season. We had a good
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: WNBA season last year. The combination of the two, we're
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: still up. Even if we lose this game, we're still
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: up in WNBA on the show. But it will only
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: be by about three winners, though. All right, and then
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: we have one.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: College football game, and that is going to be the end.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: Not a good game. New Mexico State.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: And Sam Houston State, this is a real ugly one.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: These teams are not good. This is in the Conference USA,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. on ESPN2 at 8 p.m., and I'll
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: mention it again, on these isolated primetime games, the home
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: team usually gets a little bit of a boost. Like
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: more of the crowd shows up for it, knowing that
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: it's a TV game, especially when it's literally the only
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: football game on TV. Usually you see the home team
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: get up a little bit more for it. But Sam Houston,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, they already are going to have motivation anyway
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: because they're a one-win team. So why wouldn't they be
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: motivated anyway?
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Like they're going to show up for this. They're not
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: having a good season. They got to try to get
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: some wins here. I mean, at this point, it looks
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: almost impossible for them to make bowl season or anything
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: like that. Although you never know because the rest of
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: their games are playing against other teams in this conference,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: most of whom are not really that much better than
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: Sam Houston. Sam Houston's coming up a really ugly 16-3
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: loss to Western Kentucky. last time out, but the Sam
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Houston defense really hasn't looked that bad at times. Like,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, they got kind of blasted by Liberty and
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech and whatever, but I mean, those teams obviously
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: could put up some offense. Sam Houston against the weaker
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: teams they played, their defense has been all right, and
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: New Mexico State is not a good offense, so Sam
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Houston may be able to at least put up a
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: good defensive performance in this one. Coming off an ugly
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: 16-3 loss that people saw last week if they watched
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: that in the middle of the week. They've been off
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: for a week. They played last Wednesday. Sam Houston, that
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: is the situation with them. Losing 16-3 to Western Kentucky. 16,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: not 60. New Mexico State is actually coming out of
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: a bye, though. They haven't played for two weeks. They
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: last played on Wednesday the 7th, and they lost in
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: a game where they only scored three points against FIU.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: FIU's a really good defense, though, man.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: I know FIU, I believe they lost outright yesterday, but
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: they're still a good defense. So New Mexico State, you know,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: it makes sense that they didn't score much in that
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: game because New Mexico State's very bad offensively, and they
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: just couldn't get anything going.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: Their defense played all right in the game, though. So
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: I think what we're looking at.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Here is two really bad offenses and two defenses that
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: are capable here.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: Um, New Mexico state has a buy though. So I
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: think that will actually help New Mexico state because they
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: went into the buy on a bad note, losing badly
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: to FIU 22 to three. So when you go into
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: the buy on a bad note, I think it's good.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: I think it helps you. It helps you fix some things.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: So I would lean New Mexico state in this one,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: even though they're the road team, I think the, uh,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: The bye, I think, should actually help them. And New
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: Mexico State is the better team here. They're laying two
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: and a half, basically, right now. 62% of the tickets
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: and 82% of the cash on New Mexico State. So
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: if I was going to play the side, that's the
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: way I would lean is towards New Mexico State coming
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: out of the bye here.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: I think both teams.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Will show up, though, because it is an isolated game.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Both teams coming off an ugly loss. They kind of
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: want to get something going here. It is a low total, 45.5.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Gone down a little bit from 46. But I think
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: the best way to play this game is actually to
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: take the under. New Mexico State having a week off
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: might make their offense a little bit cold as well.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: But like I said already, you're talking about two pretty
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: pitiful offenses here and two defenses that are pretty capable.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: So both defenses might be able to shut down these
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: offenses enough that this game won't See a whole lot
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: of points here. So I think the under might be
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: the best way to look at this.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: I think this is going to be an ugly game.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: The total is low for a reason.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: The odds makers know that we're looking at some offenses
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: that suck. These are ass offenses here. 74% of the
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: tickets are on the over public.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: Oh, we have a football game tonight. Let's play the over. No,
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know if the public is
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: really going to get that involved in this game, but
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: they might be looking at more NBA stuff today. 58%
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: of the money is on the under in this game, though,
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: so the money is indicating strongly towards the under. That's
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: the way I would go in this game if I
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: was going to play it, and it is on TV.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: It's on ESPN2, so there will probably be some betting
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: action on it. The public bettors will definitely be on
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: the two NBA ESPN games, though. That's gonna do it
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: uh that's it for today i believe baseball resumes on
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: friday is that right let me see we can look
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: real quick here um yeah baseball resumes on friday we
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: don't know what it's gonna look like yet but um
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: i may wind up having something on that game we
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: will see That's going to do it.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: So the one play I'm giving out on the show.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Today is the Golden State Valkyries in WNBA in the
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: WNBA finals to zigzag back, get within the plus three
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: and a half there. That's what we're going to do
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: after the free throw outlier of game two. Learn to
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: tone on Twitter, learn to tone on Instagram, learn to
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: tone on TikTok.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: You see it there. You can follow me at all
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: those places. Like, subscribe to the channel here. Leave comments.
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: Boost this thing up. Let's get some more numbers here.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: Let's go. Listen on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. That helps
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: me out as well. Covered in Uke is my ukulele
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: channel on YouTube. Uke Covers. You can check that out.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: I put a new one up. Actually, I haven't put
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: it up yet.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: It's on Twitter, but I got to put it up
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: there for more Halloween season themed stuff loosely. So you
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: can check that out. Patreon.com slash learn to toad for
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: some extra.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: Uke stuff there. And what else? I forget.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Loser cast every Tuesday night. We had a new episode
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: last night. That is going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: Peace.
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 50:49
  Speaker 5: You do not have.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: To lose this round alone.
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold.
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: On, not tonight.
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 51:21
  Speaker 5: the crown Hold on, hold.
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: On Stay with me now Hold on, hold on.
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: You're still here now.
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.