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Felix Prehn - Warning: Banks JUST Warned BIG Clients + Stock Market News 22 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix Seabrook, the most important investment bank in the world, just warned their big clients of impending doom and gloom.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: And I want to go through that, explain it to you, not to freak you out, but to show you what those guys are thinking about, because, well, they don't really care about you and me, even though I'm dressed like a penguin.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: More on that in a moment, and let me take you through the data.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: And then we look at what's actually happening right now and what the smart move is as an investor right now.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Is there something to that doom and gloom, and should we therefore be panicking or dressing like penguins?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: So let's jump straight into it.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: This is the chart Goldman Sachs have put out, and they're sort of the penguins of the Wall Street world.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: The Wall Street world, they're saying that until 2034, we should be expecting a 1% real return per year.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: So they're saying you're going to get 3% per year, 2% inflation.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: You have to deduct from that.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: You're going to make a 1% per year for the next 10 years.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: That's pretty depressing stuff, isn't it?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I mean very depressing stuff.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So what's led to it?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: What are they saying?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Well, they actually have a model that, in fairness to bank line, again, these guys are using two colors blue and blue.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: They were brilliant, aren't they?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: The dark blue line is the realized return of the S&P over the last almost 100 years.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And then in light blue, again blue and blue.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: You have to give it to them.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: They're so smart, these guys.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: They get paid half a million dollars a year upwards and they say just make a chart with two colors.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll use a light blue and a dark blue.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: That'll make it really easy to take it apart.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, um, and they're basically saying because we've had these 13 returns for the last 10 years yeah, it's been a pretty freaking great ride, right, I've enjoyed every minute of it.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Uh, we are now due the sort of doom and gloom that we had in the late 2000s or in the sort of late 70s, because on average, we can only do 7, 8, 9%.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: That's the theory, right.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So what is there to that theory?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Is there something?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Is it correct?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Well, their rationale is this.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Well, their rationale is this they're saying the largest 10 stocks now account for 36% of the S&P 500.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: So you basically can buy the top 10 stocks and you own 36% of the S&P, or you can buy the other 490 stocks and they make up 64% and that level of concentration, they're saying, isn't sustainable and therefore it must come down.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: What goes up must come down.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Or rather, what they're saying is all the other stocks are going to outperform and these top 10 stocks will do back of all.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: And this is their explanation for it.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: And they do bear in mind these guys get paid a bucketload of money and they manage hundreds of billions of dollars of money, so there might be something in that.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying we've never had this level of market concentration since, like 1932, which was not really a brilliant time to be an investor.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Well, this is the full kind of summary.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I read the whole.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: It's a 37 page painful read.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So, to summarize, they're saying we're going to get about a 1% return for the next 10 years, because during the past 10 years we got 13% and therefore we are now due punishment.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Right, we've just had it too good.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And they're saying it's absolute.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Valuations are too high, concentration is too high.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: They think the economy isn't going to do all that well and corporates are not going to be very profitable.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The interest rates will be somewhat higher than they have been over the last 10 years.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: So, now that I've got you thoroughly depressed, still wondering why I'm wearing a penguin suit, well, let's look at could they be right?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: And then we're going to look at the flip side of the argument, because I want to leave you on a on a high.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: I don't want to leave you all glam and depressed and then say I'm off to the gala.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: So, on average Since 1930, the stock market has returned 11%, and people often don't believe that.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: They think no, no, it's 7% or something.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: No, it's 11%.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So if you just put your money in the market and absolutely bugger, all other than adding I don't know, $1,000 every beginning of the month or every Monday or whatever, and you would be fabulously wealthy, fabulously wealthy.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: But Goldman Sachs seems to think we should be heading down here towards the 3%, because the past decade we had 13%.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Try explaining that to me.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be logical if you said well, the average is 11,.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: We've had 13, therefore we should probably be getting like 9?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I can kind of live with that, but three, I mean, there's no point in investing if you're making 3%.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Okay, slightly better than burning the money, but it's really really horrible.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Bonds will probably do better than 3%.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So that's essentially what they're saying.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: They're actually saying bonds will outperform the stock market the next 10 years.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: So, whatever happens and we'll look at some positive reasons here in a moment picking winners in the next 10 years is going to be more important than ever.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Because there will still be stocks that outperform, but if the broad market just does very little, you really have to become a stock picker, and the greatest investors in the world are stock pickers.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I know Buffett says everyone should buy the index.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: He doesn't buy the index.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Have you noticed that?
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Have you noticed that slight conflict of interest?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: All the greatest investors in the world say, yeah, just buy the index, buy the S&P, buy a low-cost ETF.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Are you doing that, sir?
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: No, that would be ridiculous.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: It's a stupid idea.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, but everybody else should do it.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit the dichotomy of Wall Street's investments.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: And why do they say that?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Well, because they make a lot of money, usually running some sort of fund or something, and they want you to invest in it.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to run something for you tomorrow.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Live, where I will teach you how to invest and how to trade, and both actually follow the same rules.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So maybe you don't want to trade, maybe you just want to be a stock investor, and I will teach you how you pick stocks that are about to break out and also how to make sure you don't hold back holders, and it's actually very simple.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: It's really four steps to the whole thing maybe three, and I'll walk you through that and it means that these sort of scenarios here, where PayPal broke out here, would have been a nice time to buy right.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Most people bought there and then they sold here and, by the way, it's breaking out again.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: So I want to avoid that.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: You do that, because the only people you make happy are the Goldman Sachs bankers of this world, and I think they're happy enough.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: You know, seven figure bonus at the end of the year.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: I think they can live with that.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So all we need to do is make sure we don't burn our money and hand it all over to those buggers.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So come and join me.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Live literally tomorrow, actually today, right In 12 hours, as this is going out and it's free, free of charge, part of our mission to make a million people financially free.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: To whet your appetite a little bit here, here are a couple of the breakouts that we spotted PayPal is up about 23% in the last month and a half.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: We've got FOA that's up here only 58% in the last two weeks or so.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: We have Philip Morris is up about 30% Breakouts down here, and there is a rule to it.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: You'll be able to spot them by the end of that session.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Rail, that's been a really nice one 183% in just under two months.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Would be nice to be in on that, wouldn't it?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: And all you've got to do is sign up here.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash workshop Join me live.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: We'll have some fun.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Be on time.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: The room might get full and then you won't be able to get in, so be on time.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: What about the doom and gloom that we are spreading here?
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, let's look at the short term.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: First, in the Over the next three months, basically, the computers are going to buy about $65 billion worth of stock.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: That's basically the likely outcome, and then it's going to be $130 billion, $150 billion in the following two months.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: So the end-year rally is very, very, very likely.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: That's just computers.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: There is a bit more good news to it, and that is oh yes, this matters too.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: This also is very, very important, and that's why I kind of take issue with the Goldman Sachs doom and gloom thing because it's going to discourage people from investing, and maybe that's the intention of these reports.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: But ultimately the stock market goes up in the long run because of what?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Profits go up right, and profits are going to the freaking moon.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Why AI?
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Yes, basically We've gone through a phase where the big software companies laid off hundreds of thousands of people and they're more profitable than ever, and is the same thing going to happen again?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and it sucks a little bit for the jobs, although people like Meta are hiring again, but ultimately they're going to get rid of a lot of people, because if you listen to NVIDIA's Jensen Huang, he's saying he's going to have 100 million AI employees basically virtual employees they're not real working in about 50,000 or so real ones, and that gives you an idea of the kind of scale that we're going in.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: But from an investor's point of view, that's going to make these companies a lot more profitable and therefore the stock prices are going to go up more than they have in the past, which would actually lend the argument that maybe stocks will go up more than they have historically, because we're sort of just invented the steam engine right, and we're making wool engine right, and we're making wool.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: We also will have over a trillion dollars about $1.1 trillion is the current estimate in buybacks next year, and that's going to be very, very supportive of the market.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: And guess when?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: The biggest buyback season is, for this year, november, yeah.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: So November should keep us very nice and warm.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: And we also have a lot of money that's going to come out of government bonds because interest rates are going down.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: And that money I did a video on that a little while ago.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: It's a little complex to explain, so that money doesn't flow out instantaneously, but it'll take about two to three years for that money to start properly flowing into the stock market.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So that will also be very supportive, as long as interest rates are going to be lower than they are right now, and at the moment that could be two or three trillion dollars.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: It's pretty significant stuff.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty good Now, equally, of course, as good as joining our live workshop, so you understand how to learn, be able to spot those breakouts before they happen and therefore not miss out on those wonderful opportunities and also not hold on to the things that are about to collapse by 70, 80%.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: And I'll show you, and you can hold me to this.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I'll show you that every single major market crash was predictable.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And you might think well, if that was the case, why wouldn't everybody?
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: You know that kind of thing, because how many of you are going to show up for the workshop?
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: 1%, maybe, maybe half a percent, maybe 0.1%.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: The thing is that most people don't try, because most people have a mindset that is just fierce change doesn't think it's possible, and that's just the way we're brought up and we all have this.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: I battle with it every single day and it's just.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You know, our conditioning and our mindset is what holds us back.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: So if you want to come and maybe open up your mind a little bit, even if you think this guy's full of it, join us and listen to it and maybe we'll shift your mindset a little bit and bring you to a place where you think more is possible, right?
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at Elon.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying I'm Elon, that's not the intention here.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: But if you'd said to people you can recycle a rocket?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: No, nasa said it was impossible.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: All the rocket scientists would have said it was impossible.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Can you land the thing and collect it with a pair of chopsticks in midair?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: No, of course you can't.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Impossible, right, and that's what people keep saying, and then it takes very, very few people to actually push it beyond that.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: And then those are the people who get tremendous returns, and it's very much the same with money.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: It's really not rocket science.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: It's just a question of are you willing to learn?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: And unfortunately, most people aren't, and they come up with an excuse why they can't, why they're busy, why this isn't the right time or they've got some other commitment and that sort of thing.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So all you're going to do is put on a penguin suit and join me.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: It'll be a black tie workshop.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: No, I'm kidding, but in all seriousness, I think there is some thought that's correct in what Goldman Sachs is putting out, that when you get extraordinary returns, it tends to be that over the next few years you get a little bit less.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: But I think the real money will be made by picking whatever the latest trend is and I don't care whatever it is, I'll be part of it and we can spot those trends by using the same rules that Walt Stratus used for like 40, 50 years, and that's really what I'll focus on.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So I think I'll do very well and I think thousands of our students will do very well and most people won't, and that's just the sad reality, and that's kind of what I want to change here.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: That's really the mission we want to get a million people on to this path to greatness and to real freedom, and to be able to sit in a glorious hotel suite and look like a penguin.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: So, speaking of penguins, I'm going to a Red Cross gala shortly and I'm already half dressed, so I thank you for watching.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I wish you a beautiful day.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I hope to be live tomorrow, should be possible, and if not, definitely the day after, and I wish you a beautiful day.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Have a think about what I just ran through Join our live workshop today in about 12 hours, and I love you watching.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: All the best.