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We either help Ukraine now, or face a possible Russian threat ourselves in the future · Kvetch & Release

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  Here in Windsor, we might be looking across the border at our neighbors to
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  the south. There are, of course, other there are global geopolitical issues
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  that are at play, One of which that is ongoing for a number of
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  years now at this point is the war in Ukraine that Russia launched. And
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  while some people argue that it's not in our country's self interest to militarily support
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  Ukraine in their fight against Russia, the guest joining me right now believes that
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  a victory for Kiev could actually prove to be invaluable for our national security here
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  in Canada. Joining me is columnist with the National Post, Adam Zvo.
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  Hey, Adam, Hey, thanks for having me back on the show.
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  Thanks talking about Ukraine. Yeah, thanks for joining me to talk about this
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  important issue here. Just like right off the bat, why would this help
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  us? You know, we got a lot of texts here at the station
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  who say we should stay out of Ukraine's affairs, out of Russia's affairs.
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  We've got our own problems here. Why do you think that it could benefit
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  us to back them in Ukraine? So typically the argument for national security in
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  the West is based on this idea that Russia will expand its war in eastern
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  Europe and move beyond Ukraine's Moldova to the Baltic States and eventually to eastern Poland.
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  And that's quite a strong argument. But I think in Canada there's an
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  additional consideration which has often overlooked, is our Arctic. So historically we've never
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  really worried about our national security because, I mean, we have two large
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  oceans to our east and west, and we have a friendly superpower to our
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  south and to the north of us in the Arctic. That was in case
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  in ice and there was very little value there. But with global warming melting
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  the polar ice, we are now starting to see the Arctic Ocean emerge as
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  a very important economic, military, and political arena. And so while the
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  Arctic used to be a place that was known for its I guess peacefulness and
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  cooperation, that area was always a very uninteresting area of international affairs. After
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  Russia invaded Ukraine, they started also the simultaneously re armed themselves in the North
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  and make more aggressive actions there. So our control over our Arctic has always
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  been quite tenuous at best. So there's a concern now amongst security experts that
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  Russia and China will pose a substantial threat to us in the North, you
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  know, in about a generation or two, and we should be prepared for
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  that. Well. You know, this would be a massive change if we
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  were able to see large scale commercial shipping in the North, and I guess
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  you know it would be in Russia's interest, in China's interest to be controlling
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  that area. Yes, So here's the thing. It's expected that because of
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  melting ice, the Northwest Passage, which passes through our north could become a
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  viable shortcut as an alternative to Panama Canal by let's say twenty forty or twenty
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  fifty, and there's a lot of money to be made there. Of course,
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  it would be a seasonal route, not a winter route, but still
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  there there's a lot of it. It's a very potent opportunity. And with
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  Russia and China now making more moves in the North, China has described itself
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  as a mere Arctic power. They could, for example, use that lane
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  unilaterally without our permission. We consider it to be our internal waters. They
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  disagree, or they could undermine use of that passage and get in the way
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  of our trading. Both options are quite severe, so are the FEDS making
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  any moves to ensure that we get to control this area of the Arctic,
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  ensure our sovereignty over it. Well. For the past two years, Arctic
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  sovereignty has become a very big topic in Canadian security. This has often been
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  overlooked by the media and the public. And there are investments now into improving
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  our active Arctic capacities, into investing into our northern infrastructure, building submarines,
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  building ships, proving our air force. But those kinds of investments take time,
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  you know, at least one or two decades. And on top of
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  that, northern communities say that if you want to secure the North, you
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  have to build up civilian infrastructure as well, because you can't have a significant
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  military presence in the North if northern communities lack basic things like like all seasoned
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  roads and and and internet broadband internet. So we have to invest into our
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  civilian infrastructure. Plus we have to build our military, and we're already behind.
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  So for us to support Ukraine and to stem your Russia and to indirectly
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  cripple Russia helps us buy that time. Because China will ultimately be the largest
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  threats in the near in the far future, but in the near future,
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  Russia is the main concern. Okay, so that's that's really interesting. So
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  you're saying that if we can keep Russia's eye on I guess, if we
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  can keep them at bay and keep them distracted by arming Ukraine, by helping
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  them militarily, it keeps their eye off the proverbial ball that is our side
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  of the world to a certain extent. Yeah, so what does it slows
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  down Russia's militarization of the North. And if Russia is able to I guess
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  be kicked out of Ukraine, that's a powerful signal to the Russian states that
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  overly aggressive foreign policy doesn't pan out. Ah. So, so that that's
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  a big concern here. And and China, of course, you know,
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  they're trying to make more forays into the North and they need Russia's assistance,
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  so we want to deny them that by weakening Russia. Now one concern though,
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  is that, uh, and this is what kind of speculative is that
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  China obviously wants to exert more control in Russia's Far East. They've released maps
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  renaming certain Far Eastern Russian cities as under Chinese names. So there's always this
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  concern that if Russia loses too badly in Ukraine that it could collapse, and
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  that you know, that could lead to China either annexing parts of the Far
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  East or exerting de facto control over it, which would give it more access
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  to the North and embolden it to assert itself in the Arctic. So that
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  is one consideration. You do have to be cautious in that respect. In
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  your piece, you talk about how there was potentially of the potential for having
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  two economic zones in the Northwest Passage, with you know, Russia and its
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  allies maintaining one side and US maintaining the other side. Do you think that
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  with the invasion of Ukraine, is that idea, like just in the past,
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  not possible anymore. I think it's more fraud. So essentially, you
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  know, there's a northwest passage which goes over North America and is a shortcut
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  for the Panama Canal, and there's the northeast passage which goes over Eurasia and
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  mostly hugs Russia's shoreline, and that's a shortcut to the Suez Canal. So
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  yeah, I mean, you could imagine in peaceful times the Arctic essentially having
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  one side western oriented, one side Eastern oriented kind of a neutral zone in
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  the center of the ocean, which is a bit more dangerous because there's floating
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  ice there. So it's not very important commercially speaking, but with growing conflict
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  and with this new Cold War, the potential for conflicts up there is just
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  really real and we don't see it right now because this is a long term
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  issue. But we have to keep in mind that if we want to protect
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  our national security, we have to think in the long term, and we
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  have to think of global conflict as being interconnected. A new Cold War in
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  a warming ocean creates for interesting situations for sure. Adam, thank you so
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  much for joining me to break down your column here. Really appreciate it.
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  Thanks for having back on the show. Cheers Still, next time you can
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  all check out that column. It's in the National Post titled we either help
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  Ukraine now or face a possible Russian threat ourselves in the future. Thank you
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  to National Post columnist Adam Zeo.