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Is the Democratic Polling Surge Real? Nate Silver’s “Summer Sugar High” and the Hobbs–Biggs Outlier (Audio)
Are Democrats riding a real political wave—or just enjoying a summer polling sugar high?
Chris and Sean revisit Nate Silver’s FLIPR election model and his latest analysis of an argument first advanced by Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini: summer polling has consistently overstated Democratic performance in recent election cycles. Ruffini found that Democratic polling bias peaked at nearly six points during the summer before narrowing considerably by Election Day. Silver isn’t declaring that history will repeat itself, but he is taking the possibility seriously. (Nate Silver, Patrick…
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