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Wall Street Tempers Bonus Expectations In Pandemic Year · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
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  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Our Carol Master in for
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Paul and Bonnie and our most read story on the
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg in the past eight hours. It's about Wall Street
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  Speaker 1: bonuses and how once again, those big Wall Street firms
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  Speaker 1: are kind of reminding their employer employees, I should say,
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  Speaker 1: really specifically traders to kind of temper back their expectations
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  Speaker 1: when it comes to those bonus checks. So let's get
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  Speaker 1: into it with her own Lenan new And she is
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  Speaker 1: FINANCEI reporter at Bloomberg News. She's with us on the
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  Speaker 1: phone in New York City. Uh Nan, no surprise that
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  Speaker 1: this is your most read story on the Bloomberg. You know,
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  Speaker 1: but I feel like these bonus stories and a tempering
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  Speaker 1: of expectations have been trickling out over the last month
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  Speaker 1: or so. What's up with it? Especially in a year
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  Speaker 1: where Trader did really well for these firms, Thanks Carol. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: the traders really crushed it this year, and obviously that's
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  Speaker 1: maybe a function also of the markets being so wild
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  Speaker 1: and volatile as well. So um, you know, there's a
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  Speaker 1: little bit of credit to the traders for doing well,
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  Speaker 1: but also you know, the environment was just better for them.
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  Speaker 1: So um. Even though some of the banks really recorded
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  Speaker 1: sort of huge, huge jumps in trading revenue, it seems
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  Speaker 1: like this year, you know, the banks are going to
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  Speaker 1: be a little bit more prudent, a little bit more cautious,
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  Speaker 1: and not not make those big payouts. We're hearing, you
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  Speaker 1: know from messaging from across the street that looks some
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  Speaker 1: big performers will get compensated, but others, um will not
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  Speaker 1: or you know, will be disappointed. All right, I just
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  Speaker 1: want to know what those discussions are, like, Lennan, Like,
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  Speaker 1: is it like the big bosses like send a little
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  Speaker 1: email around or the big boss tells the boss right
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  Speaker 1: under it just to like tell your team it's not
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  Speaker 1: going to be as rosy as you thought. Like, how
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  Speaker 1: does it play out on Wall Street? Um? Well, I
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  Speaker 1: don't think much of it happens by email, but probably
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  Speaker 1: not a kind of it's a telegraphing, right, it's a
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  Speaker 1: signaling effect. You know. We we heard about a manager
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  Speaker 1: at Bank of America who had a kind of Sunday
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  Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon call with his teams kind of trying to
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  Speaker 1: manage expectations. And that's really important here because you don't
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  Speaker 1: want people going into you know, Jan said, thinking they're
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  Speaker 1: going to get at race in their bonus and then
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  Speaker 1: get zero. Right. Yeah, you know, it's a it's a
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  Speaker 1: really kind of important signaling mechanism that happens that towards
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  Speaker 1: your end. And also there are a few test balloons
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  Speaker 1: as well. You know, if they send out some messages
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  Speaker 1: and um, you know people are up in arms, then
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  Speaker 1: managers can go back to say the board or the
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  Speaker 1: executive committee and say, look, you know I need more
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  Speaker 1: and it's a bigger pot for my for my guys. So, um,
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  Speaker 1: it is a negotiation process. So we want to make
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  Speaker 1: that clear there there are still negotiations taking places, not
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  Speaker 1: all completely baked yet they're always is wiggle room right? Hey?
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  Speaker 1: Is it different though for fixed income versus equities versus
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  Speaker 1: you know, different asset classes when it comes to those
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  Speaker 1: bonuses this year, I'm assuming it usually is but I'm
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  Speaker 1: wondering if this year is any different. Yeah, I think
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  Speaker 1: most what we're hearing is that fixed income is going
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  Speaker 1: to do better UM. And again this is varies depending
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  Speaker 1: on the strength of the bank UM and where their
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  Speaker 1: skill sets are. But it sounds to me like the
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  Speaker 1: fixed income groups are going to um get more than
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  Speaker 1: their equities trading counterparts. UM. So that's the general tone.
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  Speaker 1: But again that is going to very bank to bank
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  Speaker 1: and death to death. This is going to be an
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  Speaker 1: unusual year in which the performance and the comp is
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  Speaker 1: going to be very very um you know, kind of
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  Speaker 1: varied among the banks because of just the strange the
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  Speaker 1: strangeness is pandemic and the performance. Listen, I love in
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  Speaker 1: your story. There's a quote from City Group CEO Mike
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  Speaker 1: Corbett UM who's on his way out. UM. But he says,
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  Speaker 1: we've got to be mindful of our returns and our shareholders.
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  Speaker 1: We've got to be mindful of our environment that we're
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  Speaker 1: in and the many challenges that are out there for
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  Speaker 1: people in certain businesses. At the same time, he said,
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  Speaker 1: you know, we've got to be competitive in our industry. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: So it is interesting thing. I feel like it was
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  Speaker 1: this way Lennon. After the financial crisis, there was a
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  Speaker 1: real sensitivity out there, um about what was going on
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  Speaker 1: across the nation, and it was a tempering back of
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  Speaker 1: holiday parties, it was a tempering back of you know,
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  Speaker 1: big time spending by executives at you know, financial front,
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  Speaker 1: Like there was just a mood reset. And I do
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  Speaker 1: feel like that is also going on here on Wall Street.
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  Speaker 1: Is that fair to say? Is that also at play here?
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  Speaker 1: I definitely think so, particularly for the banks that have
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  Speaker 1: large consumer divisions, like City Group or a Bank of
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  Speaker 1: America JP Morgan. It's not a good look when so
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  Speaker 1: much of the country is suffering from pandemic and from
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  Speaker 1: economic strains to then start paying you know, huge huge
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  Speaker 1: bonuses to traders um. Obviously, some of these will be
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  Speaker 1: publicly reported by the New York government as well in
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  Speaker 1: New York City, so you know, we will have aggregate numbers.
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  Speaker 1: And so I think the banks are very sensitive to
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  Speaker 1: the fact that if they make huge trader payouts, um,
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  Speaker 1: eventually they may face the scorn of republic during such
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  Speaker 1: a difficult time. So I think, uh, you know, there's
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  Speaker 1: also an excuse to be cindy as well. Right at
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  Speaker 1: the same time, if I'm a trader, and I brought
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  Speaker 1: in a ton of money. Five biggest US investment banks
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  Speaker 1: on pace for their first a hundred billion dollar year
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  Speaker 1: for trading revenue in more than decade. I gotta say
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  Speaker 1: I might be like, are you kidding me? I'm just
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  Speaker 1: gonna say, yeah. I mean, I think I think that's
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  Speaker 1: a general trader mortality. You have a huge year, you
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  Speaker 1: always want more. Um. And I think the rock stars,
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  Speaker 1: to be frank, will be compensated this year. UM. But again,
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  Speaker 1: maybe not all of the rock stars, and maybe they're
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  Speaker 1: not going to set as much as they expect. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: That tempering of expectations. Interesting stuff and as we said,
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  Speaker 1: the most read story on the Bloomberg in the past
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  Speaker 1: eight hours, So Lennon good stuff. Lenan new In, uh
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  Speaker 1: financi reporter at Bloomberg News on the phone from New
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  Speaker 1: York City. You can check her out on Twitter at
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Lennon T. New In. That's l A N A n
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  Speaker 1: h t N g U y e N. Always good
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  Speaker 1: stuff from her. This column among the Bloomberg opinion pieces,
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  Speaker 1: definitely uh standing out. It's called the Shes Session. How
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  Speaker 1: it's very real in particular for minority women and It's
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  Speaker 1: written by Louisa Blanco. She is professor of public policy
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  Speaker 1: at Pepperdine University. She specializes in economic development, international economics,
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  Speaker 1: and the financial well being of minorities in the United States.
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  Speaker 1: So my guess is she has had a busy year
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  Speaker 1: and a lot to write about. Luisa joining us on
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  Speaker 1: the phone from Malibu, California. Professor Blanco, nice to have
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  Speaker 1: you here on Bloomberg. You know, I've had this conversation
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  Speaker 1: with uh, some different CEOs, including Verizon Business CEO Tammy Irwin,
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  Speaker 1: about how this pandemic is disproportionately impacting women. But as
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  Speaker 1: you say, and so smartly and rightfully, so you drill
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  Speaker 1: down even further, we are seeing again a distinction between
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  Speaker 1: white women and minority women in terms of the impact.
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  Speaker 1: Talked to us about that. If you would, thank you
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  Speaker 1: so much for bloom Show today, some of my insights
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  Speaker 1: and work and this very appreciate invitations. Um so yes.
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  Speaker 1: So I think you know, when I hear people talking
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  Speaker 1: about the sheet session, I realized that, well, you know, well,
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  Speaker 1: it is true. It aggregates all women, right and at
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  Speaker 1: the end of the day, you know, women, uh, minority
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  Speaker 1: women have a different experience right, and especially when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to the to the labor market and um to here.
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  Speaker 1: You know, when we look at minority women, um, there
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  Speaker 1: are several reasons why you know, they are doing worse
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  Speaker 1: when it comes to employment and and being part of
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  Speaker 1: the labor force. And it is because, um, we we
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  Speaker 1: see that minority women are more likely to work on
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  Speaker 1: sectors that have been directly affected by lockdowns and stay
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  Speaker 1: out ward orders so and and less likely to tell
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  Speaker 1: a work. So that's one of the first reasons. And
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  Speaker 1: the other reason is that minority women are more exposed
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  Speaker 1: to COVID nineteen and more likely to get thick. And
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  Speaker 1: then another very important reason is that even different family circumstances,
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  Speaker 1: actually being part of the labor force has been more
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  Speaker 1: difficult for minority women because they need to take care
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  Speaker 1: of children. With the closure of childcare and childcare censors
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  Speaker 1: and the schools, right, um, taking care of children has
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  Speaker 1: become very important. Yeah, you know, this is where in
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  Speaker 1: a world where we have so many data points, right,
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  Speaker 1: But if you look at data on the macro level,
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  Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't it tells you a broad theme or
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  Speaker 1: broad story. But as you start to drill down, then
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  Speaker 1: you really understand what's going on, and I think drilling
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  Speaker 1: down into the data of is going to be so important,
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  Speaker 1: especially as we try to address some of the inequalities,
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  Speaker 1: the inequities that are out there in society. So you
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  Speaker 1: talk about you know, family arrangements, taking care of the family,
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  Speaker 1: being you know, exposed to certain jobs where you can't
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  Speaker 1: do them from home, and having to make a choice
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  Speaker 1: between taking care of your family or you know, continue
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  Speaker 1: doing work. So I think, here we embark on a
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  Speaker 1: new year, a new administration. Um, we have a vice
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  Speaker 1: presidental act who is a minority, and you know, hopefully
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  Speaker 1: we'll fold in all of her experiences as well when
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  Speaker 1: it comes to policy, at least it will be you know,
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  Speaker 1: she'll have a seat at the table. So what do
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  Speaker 1: we need to do as policymakers to address some of
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  Speaker 1: these issues so that they're not forgotten once we get
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  Speaker 1: on the other side of COVID. Yeah, thank you for
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  Speaker 1: bringing that right up. I feel like, you know, we
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: hear all the time about the problem, and that's where
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I'm getting tired. You know, we hear about all these
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: data showing these these parties, and it's overwhelming, and it's stuff.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: It is painful, right, and I'm glad that you jump
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: right away into the solutions. I really appreciate that because
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: when I wrote the off it, I say, you know,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about the problem, but i really
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: want to spend time on the solutions because I'm tired
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: of just hearing people talking about the problem, right right. So, um,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I think you know, as the new administration comescened,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: you know, what it is important is that we addressed uh,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: these labor market disparities, and and we need to be
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: very strategic because the longer we weighed, the more problematic
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: it will be. So we economists always worry about long
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: term unemployment because we know that the longer people stay
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: out out of the labor market, uh, the more their
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: skills at trophy right, and then also self confidence. Right. So,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: so I think, you know, for the new administration, it
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  Speaker 1: is very important that we addressed, especially um, the child
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  Speaker 1: care challenges that minority women are facing these days. UM.
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  Speaker 1: So to do these, you know, we really need to
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: be focusing on the safe reopening of the schools and
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: access to child care. And to do these, you know,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: first we need to establish testing and safety measures for
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: schools and child care centers so that they you know,
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  Speaker 1: kids can go back to school safely, and and and
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  Speaker 1: and parents and go back to work, especially models, and
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: we need Uh. I think what's very important as we're
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: talking about you know, vaccines and and you know, thankfully
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  Speaker 1: we we have that as a hope, right, we need
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: to set priority for vaccines for teachers and support staff
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: and chald care workers. I think that's that's crucial as
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: we're trying to decide you know, who who gets the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: vaccines as they come in UM. And then I think,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: you know, another important area that we really need to
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: be spending resources is to invest in outreach to encourage
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: vaccine of septance. And how problematic is that? We said, like,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: I do think about it's really remarkable. And I even
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: was talking with UM members, the head of a medical network,
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  Speaker 1: with all of doctors. Basically you know that the skepticism
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  Speaker 1: going into this that there needed to be some convincing
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  Speaker 1: So UM, I do wonder how problematic this could ultimately
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  Speaker 1: be for minority women and they are ability to bounce
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  Speaker 1: back faster. Yes, I think, you know, the issue of
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: vaccine hesitancy is very important and that's something we need
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: to get our hands right on right now. Because otherwise
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  Speaker 1: if we wait, it is just we're gonna miss the opportunity. Right.
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  Speaker 1: So a thing with minorities, there is a there is
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  Speaker 1: a lack of tactics of reliable information, right especially you know,
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  Speaker 1: information that can be language and cultural appropriate. Um. Then
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  Speaker 1: there itself so dis mistrust right so on the government,
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  Speaker 1: especially in the last couple of years. Right. Um, So
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  Speaker 1: we have big barriers when it comes to vaccine acceptance.
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  Speaker 1: And I think that, um, you know, we and I
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  Speaker 1: was going to mention, you know, all these efforts that
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  Speaker 1: I'm talking about, you know, establishing testing measures, vaccines for
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  Speaker 1: teachers and then also vaccine acceptance. I mean, um, what
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  Speaker 1: we need to make sure right that our efforts are
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  Speaker 1: focusing places proportions of lower income minority students. Right. Um.
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  Speaker 1: So I've seen you know, working on and I already
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: be touching to some people because I worry about these issues. Yeah, listen,
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  Speaker 1: it's it's it's important as we you know, really dig
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  Speaker 1: into how do we come back here and come back
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  Speaker 1: stronger and make sure nobody has left out. So these
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: these propositions and proposals that you're really putting out there, um,
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  Speaker 1: make a lot of sense. And for things certainly for
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  Speaker 1: the for the administration to consider. Hey, Louisa, thank you
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  Speaker 1: so much. Professor Louisa Blanco, Professor of public policy at
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Pepperdine University, joining us on the phone from Malibu, California.
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  Speaker 1: You know, it's funny how headline shifts so dramatically because
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: it's just a few weeks ago that we were talking
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: about what will become known as the largest cybersecurity attack
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  Speaker 1: in the United States. And recent memory has to do
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: with those suspected Russian hackers breaching the internal networks of
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: at least two customers, including the US government, UH, several
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: agencies within the US government, also private companies and a
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: cybersecurity firm. And we continue to find out more about this. Heck,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: let's get into it though with Steve Groman. He is
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: senior vice president, chief Technology officer of at McAfee. He
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Plano, Texas. Steve, nice
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: to have you here on Bloomberg Radio. It's interesting go
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: back even a few years, and I feel like we
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: had a conversation on air several times a day that
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: dealt with cybersecurity issues and it kind of got pushed back. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: certainly in a year like when we had so many
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: other things on our mind and then solar winds happens
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: and then we're all reminded that man, we have huge
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: still cyber risks out there. Hey, hey, Carol, thanks for
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: having me. This really was a wake up call that
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: hit us right at the end of and it is
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: unlike anything we've ever seen before, you know, as as
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: you know, we've seen major cyber incidents throughout the last
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: few years, whether you go back to the Sony hack
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: by North Korea or we saw major worms such as
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: back in want to cry, impacted businesses across the globe.
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  Speaker 1: But what makes this so unique, and in many ways
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  Speaker 1: I almost think of this as a cyber pearl harbor,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: is it gives the Russian or the suspected Russian actors
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: what we call hands on keyboard access to a large
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: number of very important US government as well as private
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: private sector UH organizations, really all at the same time.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: And that's something that we haven't yet seen. Well, so
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: explain that for us a little bit more, Steve. When
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: you say a keyboard um attack, what does that mean?
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: It sounds to me like it gives them access like
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: if I was sitting down to any of those systems
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: in front of the keyboard and had the access. But
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: explain it and this isn't my world, that your world,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: so explain what the significance of that is. That's exactly right.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: So think of it as it creates a virtual connection
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: between a human cyber attacker sitting somewhere around the world
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: into one of these very sensitive U S organizations where
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: they can look for assets of opportunity to steal or
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: look for systems of opportunity to implant malware. And because
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: it's being executed by a human as opposed to a
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: preprogrammed UH playbook, it can make on the fly decisions
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: to ratchet up the lethality of the attack or to
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  Speaker 1: identify assets that are much more valuable from an espionage
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: perspective UH than And something like want to Cry that
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  Speaker 1: we saw in which was more analogous to it's like
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: a dumb bomb where it ran the same code everywhere
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: that it landed and we knew exactly the damage it did.
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  Speaker 1: In this case Department of State. You might have a
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  Speaker 1: Russian actor feeling very different information from Department of Energy,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: and every organization that's going to be a little bit different. Well,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: what's interesting too, is do you think this was a
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Solar Winds problem, Because let's remind everybody, it was, you know,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: a supply chain attack or a third party attack. That's
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: how it's been described. The initial target, right, wasn't the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: US government or some of those other institutions, but one
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: of its software suppliers. So shame on UM Solar Winds,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: shame on the U S Government for maybe not being
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: more careful with its supply chain. What is the lesson
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  Speaker 1: to be learned here? And just got about a minute
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: or so, so, so the main lesson is that there's
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: no single thing that we can count on in order
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: to defend our environments. We need good defensive technology. We
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: need to scrutinize our suppliers, We need to have well
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: trained people operating our cybersecurity defense. It's it's a little
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: bit like driving a car safely. You want to have
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: the right technology seatbelt, air bags, any lock breaks, but
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: but you also have to pay attention to what you're
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: doing or else you can still get into an accident
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: and making sure that you have all of those components.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: It's something that will have to look at more broadly
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: across the industry. Yeah, I do wonder just quickly too.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, just what happened here? Right? I mean we
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: all know that these problems are out there. We've got
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: to be careful. I just is it just somebody a
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: major screw up or something more significant, because I know
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Solar Winds, you know, has come out and said listen,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: we were warning people of some lack of security. And
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: again sorry just about thirty seconds. Yeah, it comes down
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: to we all need to up our game. Aim. So
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: software suppliers need to scrutinize their development process, the way
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: that they're operating UH their own environments so they don't
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: become the avenue for UH Nation States or or other
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: cybercriminals even to get into environments through legitimate software. Every
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: legitimate software maker needs to up their game. All right,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: good stuff, Hey, Steve, thank you so much. Steve Groban,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: he's a senior vice president chief Technology officer at McAfee.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: He is joining us on the phone from Plano, Texas.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: I want to talk a little bit more about the
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: trade today with a guest who's got some specific thoughts
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: when it comes to the global airline industry. Frank Holmes
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: is with US CEO and Chief Investment Officer at US
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Global Advisors investors excuse me, US Global Investors with some
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: five thirty four million dollars in assets under management, and
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: he joins us on the phone from San Antonio, Texas. Frank,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: nice to have you back here on Bloomberg Video. So, um,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the airline industry. I think they are
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: just counting down the days. So there are a lot
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: more flyers and passengers and consumers ready to get on planes,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: but it's going to be at least a few more
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: months before we get to even something close uh to normal.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: How do you see it? And where our investors kind
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: of positioning money right now? What are you seeing in
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: terms of trends. Well, one of the first things that
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: just to add to the data points you gave JETS
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: E t F is a three big in dollar E
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: t F now, um, and you mentioned five million. That
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: was just the mutual funds. The E t s are
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: are bigger today and that's been a phenomena for the
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: mutual fund industry as a shift has gone to ETS
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: just has been a phenomena since March when it hit
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: thirty five million dollars and growing to three billion dollars
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: in this forward looking everyone's forward looking on this of
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: anticipating in twelve months. So what happened after every other
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: crisis that we've had in the past thirty years, and
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: the airline's industry seems to bounce back within twelve months.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: So we've seen a lot of money come into the
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: airlines through the jets as a product, which I think
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: is most fascinating betting. And then on this weekend we
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: had one point three million tourists one point three million,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: even with record uh COVID negative numbers. So people are moving.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Business is not moving like, it's not booming yet. It's
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: going to take a while. Everyone's zooming when it comes
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: to business transactions, but tourism is up substantially. The major
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: airlines are rerouting their rather than going through a hub,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: They're going NonStop from Pennsylvania, New York to smaller cities
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: rapdown to Florida. Uh same thing we're seeing Southwest go
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: from Phoenix rapdown to Cobble St. Lucas. So help me
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: out kind of where I mean. Listen, this is you
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: can't market time, but it is about timing the market
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: here when it comes to when you think you know
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: truly air travel gets back to normal. It's the same
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: thing for the hospitality industry. I mentioned Carnival before we
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: got going. It's you know, everybody's trying to kind of
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: make their best guess. We know things will as dark
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: as they may feel now and make it a little
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: bit darker as we get into January. Um that because
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: of the vaccine, we have started to kind of map
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: at our playbook for getting back to normal. But again
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: it's a timing issue. So at this point you don't
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: think it's too early to put money to play here.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: When it comes to those big airline industries. I mean,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: which if you look at them individually, Dealta still downcent
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: this year. United is down fifty percent this year. You know,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I could kind of go on, you can right across
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the board and if the economy gets back to where
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: it was, America flying two million people a day total
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: was two point seven million people seven thousand coming in
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: for Asia, Latin America in Europe, but two million people
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: flying a day. As we saw that drop down to
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: nineties tho in April. The busiest airport in the world
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: at that time was an Anchorage a Lass shipping medical
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: equipment to North American and Europe. It's all changed and
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: it's all improving. And I think you have to be
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: optimistic and take a look at the G twenty countries.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: What they're sort of MMT is called modern monetary theory
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: of printing money. But they're all doing it collectively. It's
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: not one country is the valuing the country's currency against another.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: They're all doing collectively to fight this Third World war
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: called Corvette. And and that is basically showing up in
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: faith and hope in the economy. Well. And the thing is, though, listen,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: this is contingent on you know, I just saw another headline.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: I think it was Chili, uh coming up and finding
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: you know, the first case of Chili announcing its first
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: patient with a new strain of COVID nineteen. I mean,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: this is an angle that maybe we weren't already for,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Frank and I do wonder we'll have to watch and
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: see where it goes. The expectations are at least we've
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: heard early on that the current COVID nineteen vaccine will
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: take care of these variants. But it's just a reminder
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: that it's going to take a while force to completely
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: feel you know, comfortable maybe about moving around in the
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: world and more importantly, Business travelers a smaller percentage of
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: airline passengers, but they are typically twice as lucrative. Right,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: they contribute so much, maybe as much as of an
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: airline's profits. That's going to take a little bit longer,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna have to be patient to see maybe
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: that impact when it comes to the airline's bottom Linees
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: just got about thirty seconds here. Well, the big part
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: we forget is that all these additional fees have been charging,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: and they can ramp those up for tourist traveling as
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: they get back and push back to one point five
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: million people flying a day, getting that in the five
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: thousand of business travel that can come later because they
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: made up so much money. Ancillary fees were massive, and
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: they're bet on those. Yeah, Listen, airlines have gotten so
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: good at charging us for everything. Hey, Frank Colmes, thank
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: you so much. Have a happy New Year's CEO, chief
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: investment officer at US Global Investors, on the phone from
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: San Antonio, Texas. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn and I'm Paul Sweeney.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio