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Tariffs Over?🚨Massive Catalyst Unlock!🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Tariff chaos could be over today. We'll break it all
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: down for you and how it will affect crypto. Don't
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: miss it. Let's just jump right into it. I want
• 0:07
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• 0:29
  Speaker 1: discount and get started out there on self custody. Let's
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: go into it today because there's a lot happening around
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the tariff issue with Trump's administration and his defense facing
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: the US Supreme Court. Now, how this plays into crypto
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: is going to get interesting because we could actually see
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: something happen in a very big way, maybe.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: To the level of a rebate.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I want to go to this first clip because this
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: is where they kind of try to compare what's happening
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: now to what has happened in the past.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Is there any that you can find in the entire
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: code where regulate includes taxing power? Just answered the justices question,
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: An you identify any statute that use that phrase to
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: confer to her?
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 1:11
  Speaker 5: The only two statutes I can identify now are TWYA.
• 1:14
  Speaker 5: Where else in the code has Congress used the word
• 1:19
  Speaker 5: regulate twia?
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: So the answer is the contested application in TYA and
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: then now and I EVA. I have about sixteen laws
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: in the past that when Congress intended regulate to mean taxing,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: that it used taxes simultaneously, but it didn't.
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: Hear it is naturally if we're conferring the power to tariff,
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: which has delegated to the executive branch.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: You know, again and again and again, go I'm sorry.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: So it doesn't say regulate tariffs. It says regulate importations
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: and exportations. You agree that they can't put tariffs on
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: exportations from the institution? Agree that, all right? So why
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: should we think that it's natural then to think that
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: regulate importation includes taxing importations.
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: And the statute doesn't use the word tariffs, but it
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: uses the word regular importation.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: I don't understand this argument, why are we permitting them?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: This is the defense just trying to stretch the meaning
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: of what that meant in terms of the words around
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: this regulation. Of course, the Supreme Court was not having it.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: This next clip goes into Justice Sodemeyer talking about the
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: comparison of what Biden tried to do versus what this
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: is doing.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Take a look, didn't we in.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: The Biden case recently say an emergency can't make clear
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: what's ambiguous.
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: The Court has never applied the major question stotturning the
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: foreign policy.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Cause we have foreign consuls.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: So Biden could have declared a national emergency in global
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: warming and then gotten his student forgiveness to tax fossil
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: fuel or to do something else.
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: I don't think he could have gotten student loan forgiveness.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Why foreign facing With the looks.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Of this, it does not appear that this is going
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: to actually go through. Defense is stumbling across this trine
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: to position they are not winning. The defense also tries
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: to argue that tariffs aren't a tax on Americans.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: The vehicle is in position of taxes on Americans, and.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: First the notion that these are the taxes are all
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: born by Americans are not.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: There's no basis for that in the record.
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: It's actually a mixing pays the tariffs, so it gets
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: allocated at.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: This a tax.
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: It is a it is a if I may it's
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: a foreign facing regulation of foreign commerce that pain.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: Has it been suggested that the tariffs are responsible for
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: significant reduction in our deficit? I would say that's raising revenue.
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: There certainly is an incident on collateral effect to the
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: tariffs that they do raise revenue, but it's very important
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: that they are regulatory tariffs, not revenue raising tariffs. This
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: policy is by far the most effective. If nobody ever
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: pays the tariffs.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: So a tariff rail tariff that why not do what
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: the statue permits bar importation of products altogether. The statute
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: says the president can do that. What it doesn't say
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: is the president can raise revenues. Has a lot of verbs,
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: but none of them include generating revenue.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: All right, so you can kind of see it.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: The way this is going to play out, most likely
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: is they're going to take away the powers of the
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: president to do tariffs in the model that he's been
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: doing them. What they can't do is get it into
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: what Sodomayer just said there, which was where he could
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: limit importation, meaning he could go right after the automobile industry,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: which would be huge to Europe, Japan, China, etc. And
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: that could be one of his major areas of where
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: he would try to go attack this. All right, I've
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: got another clip for you. This is Judge Gorshi, which
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: is basically destroying the defense to the point where it
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: gets a little bit laughable.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: So, Congress delegate to the president the power to regulate
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: commerce with foreign nations as he sees fit and collect
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: duties as he sees fit.
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: We don't assert that here. That would be a much
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: harder case now in seventeen nine, And that's the logic
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: of your of your view, though I don't think so.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: Now you're admitting that there is some non delegation principle
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: at play here and therefore major questions as well.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: Yea very limited, very very deferential limited is what it means.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: I know, But that's where you started off, and now
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  Speaker 4: you've retreated from that.
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  Speaker 5: As I understand it, well, I think we would as
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: our frontline position a stronger position, but the court doesn't
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  Speaker 5: accept it.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: Then if there is a highly time you give.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: You a reason to accept it.
• 5:36
  Speaker 6: Though.
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  Speaker 4: That's what I'm struggling and waiting for. What's the reason
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: to accept the notion that Congress can hand off the
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: power to declare war to the president.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: But we don't contend that again, Well you do.
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  Speaker 4: You say it's unreviewable, there's no manageable standard, nothing to
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: be done. And now you're I think you tell me
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: if I'm wrong. You backed off that position. Maybe that's
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: fair to say, Okay, all right, I would be thinking
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: an abdication. I'm delighted to hear that.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: There's nowhere this is going for the President and the administration,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: at least on the current stance of tariffs. Yes, he
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: does have some capabilities of being able to restrict imports.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: That would be big because it would affect the auto
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: automobile market and possibly some of the other major markets
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: out there.
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  Speaker 2: That would would still be.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: A leveraging point for them to go out and negotiate
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: globally for a lot of his deal makers. If you
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: look at the Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: this is absolutely not going to happen. Polymarkets got it
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: pretty much down at twenty six percent. This is done
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I think Crypto has spoken. This will most likely go
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: quickly into a decision, which could happen as early as December,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: and that would be very fast for Supreme Court to
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: be able to make that. How this plays out into
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: the next steps is the real question, because most likely
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: this could have impact on refunds. You heard me right,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: that refunds could actually come back into the companies that
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: have been in this as well as the consumers. How
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: would that happen.
• 7:04
  Speaker 7: Take a look as of right now, the treasure we'd
• 7:07
  Speaker 7: have to pay about ninety billion dollars back if the
• 7:09
  Speaker 7: Supreme Court decides against the Trump administration here. That number,
• 7:12
  Speaker 7: of course growing every day by the time we get
• 7:15
  Speaker 7: to the end of the year, and.
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  Speaker 8: By the end of the year, we're talking about maybe
• 7:19
  Speaker 8: one hundred and thirty billion dollars.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: All right, end of the year, one hundred and thirty billion.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Where's that going to go? Some of it will go
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  Speaker 1: back to major corporations where we get tax for or
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: excuse me, price cuts.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Unlikely.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Inflation has already hit the American consumer, so you're already
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: out of pocket for that. But maybe what could happen
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is Trump spends this and wins Anyway, we did a
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: couple of videos on this talking about where this could
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: end up coming back to the American people as a
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: tariff rebate. If Trump does that, then what he's done
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: is basically pivoted the whole issue into a positive for him.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Let's go further into this because this gets into other
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: scenarios and that is going to be going around the
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: government reopening soon Clarity Act passes before the end of November.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: If that does occur, and then of course many people
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: think that we could see an all season that could
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: be epic by December, January, and February. I'm still on
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the fence about that. In terms of a massive all season.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: It will depend on how institutional capital plays into this,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: because this is really what institutions have been waiting for.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: And it's kind of interesting because this goes over to
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: a clip that we pulled on Kathy Wood that was
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: in reference to bitcoin. Now, this is forward looking statements
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: from our investment, who has been very bullish on bitcoin
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: at least until now.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 6: I will say one thing that has shifted for us
• 8:45
  Speaker 6: stable coins are usurping part of the role that we
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: thought bitcoin would play. So our bullish forecast out there
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: is one point five million by twenty thirty. I think
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  Speaker 6: we could take maybe three hundred thousand dollars off of
• 9:00
  Speaker 6: that bullish case just for stable coins.
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  Speaker 4: So, Kathy, this is news because this is a different expectation.
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: Would you take the top top number down even further?
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: Digital gold could us serve half of that market or
• 9:16
  Speaker 6: at least become as big. So that's the other dynamic
• 9:19
  Speaker 6: at work here.
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  Speaker 4: You know, there's a lot of things that are better
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: than gold about dick coin, and most of the most
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: important things are this or the same, So it's either
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: better or the same.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: So it could at least be half.
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  Speaker 8: It could at least be half of gold.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, Kathy pulled off three hundred thousand on
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: her top line expectations by twenty thirty. If this continues
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: to correlate on an annual basis over the next five years,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see where their position might be.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: And they're all in on stable coins. Of course, that
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: means ethereum, you look at institutions. Institutions now PILI and
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: we've already talked about this before. This was a clip
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: by Matt Hogan. Now remember Matt Hogan, bit wise they're
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: getting aroundy to launch an XRP ETF, But the main
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: thing he's getting at here is the status of retail
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: and the status of institutional and where it collides.
• 10:11
  Speaker 8: Take a look, crypto retail is in max desperation. We've
• 10:16
  Speaker 8: seen leverage blowouts, we've seen issues with faults, we've seen
• 10:20
  Speaker 8: issues with yield protocols, and the market for sort of
• 10:24
  Speaker 8: crypto native retail is just more depressed than I've ever
• 10:28
  Speaker 8: seen it. I think that market is close to a bottom.
• 10:31
  Speaker 8: It's hard to find a crypto native investor who still
• 10:34
  Speaker 8: has much enthusiasm for the market. I think the market
• 10:37
  Speaker 8: is shifting into an institutionally driven market, and interestingly, that
• 10:42
  Speaker 8: market is still bullish. When I go out and speak
• 10:44
  Speaker 8: to institutions or financial advisors, they're still excited to allocate
• 10:49
  Speaker 8: to an asset class that, if you pan back and
• 10:51
  Speaker 8: look over the course of a year, is still delivering
• 10:54
  Speaker 8: very strong returns. So my view of the market is
• 10:57
  Speaker 8: we have to get through this retail flush out, but
• 11:00
  Speaker 8: I think we're very close to that, and then I'm
• 11:02
  Speaker 8: optimistic that we rally into the end of the year
• 11:06
  Speaker 8: and into twenty twenty six. As the institutional investors who
• 11:09
  Speaker 8: are more maybe even keeled about what's going on at
• 11:12
  Speaker 8: a fundamental level when crypto start to drive the market forward.
• 11:17
  Speaker 8: But we do have to finish this wash out of
• 11:19
  Speaker 8: retail sentiment. And again I think we're closer to the
• 11:22
  Speaker 8: end of that than the beginning.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: All right, guys, that's exactly the point we've been getting
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: at a long time. And then that is they're trying
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: to wash you out. When I say they, it's institutions
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: or it's the big bad wolfs out there that are
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: going after your bitcoin. Your ethereum, your XRP point being
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: is is that this could be the last pushed down
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: before we do see a complete new map of how
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: crypto could be utilized and also really invested in over
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: the next several years. And remember, institutional capital has a
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: much longer timeframe. Their horizon is much different than a
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: retail investor. You need to rethink how your starts to
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: go into these markets. If you take a look at
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the charts right now, Bitcoin of course has been bleeding
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: really from that top at one twenty six to where
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: we are now, and you kind of see the top
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: here and where we are today. If we go all
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the way down to the bottom. That was a twenty
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: one percent move down. Could we see the one hundred
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: k again, Yes, it's very possible that this could start
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: to push in. I'm leary of how this plays out
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: in November. I still am questioning Tom Lee's anticipation of
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: a two hundred k bitcoin by end of year. I
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: just don't understand that one. And of course, one thing
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: about Ethereum that has been significant is the fact that
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: they are and I think are starting to make their
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: case around what's going to happen in terms of new
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: developments and if you look at where Fusaka is in
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: terms of transactions, we talked.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: About that the other day.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: This could be a long form stimulus from institutions taking
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: a look at eth as a bigger play, meaning ETFs
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: as well as Ethereum spot. So a lot of that
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: going on, and don't forget what we're going to say
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: see around the staking business.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: Last up, just a quick look at XRP.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Even though with Ripple absolutely announcing barn Burner deals including
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: five hundred million in new investment on a forty billion
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: dollars now valuation, this is crazy because remember Ripple was
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: valued at like eleven billion the beginning.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: Of last year.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: This is a huge, huge step, but yet XRP on
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the token side has not moved. Is this a sideways
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: action before we see a blow off top? Let me
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: know what you guys think down in the comments. And also,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: do you think President Trump is going to rearrange this
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: in his benefit around these tears? Let me know about
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that as well. If you're not in the diamond circle,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: get in on that. It's a free place where you
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: guys can get additional content from me and follow me
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: right here on The Paul Baron Show.