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Cubs Offseason Reality Check (from London) · Monday Morning Cubs Show

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, and evening Chicago Cubs fans, and welcome back to the Monday Morning Cubs show.
0:05
SPEAKER_00: Today is Monday, November 10th.
0:07
SPEAKER_00: It is Carl.
0:08
SPEAKER_00: This is a solo show because I am in London right now.
0:12
SPEAKER_00: I'm recording this on my earpods.
0:14
SPEAKER_00: This is unquestionably the jankiest contest I've ever put together from a production side.
0:22
SPEAKER_00: But I'm just being honest with you guys.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: I'm on vacation with Mrs.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: Carl.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: We've been doing a ton of sightseeing.
0:27
SPEAKER_00: This is something we've been waiting for for a whole long time after the baseball season, but I owe it to you guys.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: I haven't missed a Monday this year.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: We're not missing Mondays.
0:36
SPEAKER_00: So just uh upfront.
0:39
SPEAKER_00: Thank you for tuning in.
0:41
SPEAKER_00: There's a couple big things we're obviously going to talk about with the show to qualify and offer Kyle Tucker's free agency, the GM meetings in Las Vegas this week.
0:48
SPEAKER_00: I got some big takes on a PCA Platinum Glove.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: But first, I just got to say I'm sorry this doesn't sound better.
0:55
SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry this isn't a full Monday morning cub show.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry there isn't the music intro, the outro, the vibe's a little bit different.
1:02
SPEAKER_00: Um, but if we could all just take a second and just say, let's talk about the heavy shit.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: There's heavy stuff going on with the Cubs right now.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: And I posted a video this week at the Tower of London where I basically said I think Tom Rickett should sell the Cubs.
1:16
SPEAKER_00: And I've kind of been inching myself towards this take.
1:19
SPEAKER_00: And I think just a quick 20-minute show here where we kind of get on the same page about what a GM meeting looks like versus the traditional winter meetings that are coming up next month, where we're at with qualifying offers, and just kind of that general theme and attitude is how we feel about the Chicago Cubs in the offseason.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: Now, there isn't huge juicy stuff right now, the free agency class, you know, as far as us locking into certain players or certain needs, but I will say this week with the GM Las Vegas meetings, this is this is where things really have the tone set for the rest of the winter and what we're gonna do.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: Because this is the behind-the-scenes back channeling all the owners, all the GMs, the team presidents, they're going to Las Vegas, they're gonna have cocktails, some guys are gonna get some strippers and hookers, some guys are gonna do drugs.
2:05
SPEAKER_00: They're I'm not sure they're gonna get into rooms and they're gonna they're gonna start talking about how serious are you guys this year?
2:12
SPEAKER_00: How serious are you guys in the next years?
2:14
SPEAKER_00: What's your kind of outlook look like?
2:16
SPEAKER_00: How comfortable are you moving, you know, prospects or established players?
2:21
SPEAKER_00: So it's it's just a real tone center.
2:24
SPEAKER_00: And on the subject of setting tones, we got to set a theme for today as I'm in London doing a solo show, like a complete lunatic at this boutique hotel.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: People are walking past staring at me like a psychopath.
2:33
SPEAKER_00: It's because I am, and that's the theme for today's show.
2:36
SPEAKER_00: We keep it rolling.
2:38
SPEAKER_00: Whatever you got going in life, keep it rolling.
2:40
SPEAKER_00: You know, you're working on a project, you're working on a relationship, you're working on yourself.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: You got something going on, keep it fucking rolling, baby.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: Like that's how I felt today in London walking around.
2:50
SPEAKER_00: I was at Westminster Abbey.
2:52
SPEAKER_00: We're doing pub tours.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: Uh, what did we just get done doing?
2:56
SPEAKER_00: The Wincent Churchill War Rooms.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: Now, this isn't a travel podcast, but I'm just telling you guys in my head, I'm keeping it rolling.
3:02
SPEAKER_00: I'm taking a look at this World War II history, and I'm just thinking to myself, this this shit we're doing with Shelby Minogas, just, you know, I can't take my head out of it.
3:10
SPEAKER_00: Now, I'm not saying be obsessive.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: Don't be weird.
3:13
SPEAKER_00: Right?
3:14
SPEAKER_00: I can be a little weird.
3:16
SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying keep it rolling.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: That's a theme.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: And on that subject, I want to say thank you sincerely, endearingly, to Thirsty Vaquero for keeping the show going.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: Thirsty Vaquero is a Mexican-style soda with a signature spicy finish that is all bite, no rattle, baby.
3:30
SPEAKER_00: They propped us up through and into the playoffs and now into the postseason, where my guys at Thirsty Vaquero were like, listen, we've just we've had so much fun partnering with you guys.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: The maniacs are showing up, the orders are flying out through Amazon.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: I know this is a popular time to have people over at the house.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: Holidays are coming up.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: Do something different.
3:49
SPEAKER_00: Put a Thirsty Vaquero in the fridge.
3:51
SPEAKER_00: You know, do Thirsty Vaquero bombs.
3:53
SPEAKER_00: I hosted a party in October.
3:55
SPEAKER_00: We were doing vaquero bombs.
3:56
SPEAKER_00: Mix and match whatever alcohol you like.
3:58
SPEAKER_00: And if you don't drink alcohol, even better because Thirsty Vaquero is a non-alcoholic Mexican-style soda.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: Three bold flavors.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: I'd be crazy not to not to tell you guys and encourage you guys, go check out Thirsty Vacaro.
4:11
SPEAKER_00: There's a reason I'm sitting at a boutique hotel in London right now, having a cold beer, working through my soda notes, trying to prep everybody just so we have we're on the same page.
4:22
SPEAKER_00: That's that's really the most important thing this time of year.
4:26
SPEAKER_00: You know, once season gets going, of course, people react and get goofy about different things, and everybody listening to this is entitled to be goofy.
4:34
SPEAKER_00: You're entitled to say, I hate Ian Hap.
4:37
SPEAKER_00: You're entitled to say I love Ian Hap.
4:39
SPEAKER_00: You're entitled to like regret the fact we bombed on Addison Russell.
4:43
SPEAKER_00: You know, that guy, that guy is Hall of Fame talent.
4:46
SPEAKER_00: That's a weird tangent to go down.
4:48
SPEAKER_00: But the overarching point is now in the offseason, though, I think this is when we need to come together and do our best not to be goofy.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: Like, the the more we can build consensus as Cubs fans, as educated Cubs fans, then I honestly think the better off we're all gonna be when opening day does roll around, when spring training comes around.
5:07
SPEAKER_00: So let's just start there with this.
5:08
SPEAKER_00: Kyle Tucker sensibly will not play for the Chicago Cubs next year.
5:12
SPEAKER_00: There is a 0% chance that Kyle Tucker plays for the Chicago Cubs next year.
5:18
SPEAKER_00: I've been talking about sports for so long, I know when I say 0%, I'm putting myself out there.
5:24
SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna do it confidently right now and say there is a 0.0% chance Kyle Tucker plays for the Chicago Cubs next year.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: Now there's a myriad of reasons there, right?
5:36
SPEAKER_00: Like, do we the depth chart?
5:38
SPEAKER_00: How's that shaken up?
5:39
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we would love to have that guy service us for 10 years.
5:43
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, I would love to be in a situation where Tommy Ricketts can go cut a check for half a billion dollars and not think twice about it because he's created a revenue generating machine.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: The problem is, and as we're gonna talk about later in this episode, and again throughout this offseason, is just how poorly the financing agreement was structured when Tom Ricketts and his family, and we should refer to them moving forward as the Ricketts family, purchased the Cubs.
6:09
SPEAKER_00: And how much debt financing they took out.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: Now you're gonna say, hey,$845 million, Carl.
6:14
SPEAKER_00: There's plenty of people who could pay that debt.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: When you've got operating revenues in the$500,$550 million range, of course you could pay that.
6:23
SPEAKER_00: The problem is the debt service, the cost he has to put the interest rate on that$845 million, and it being secured and collateralized by Wrigley Field in some real brutal terms.
6:36
SPEAKER_00: That when Tom Ricketts originally signed this deal, when the Ricketts family originally entered into a deal with the Cubs, the idea that there'd be some COVID shutdown where you would lose all your operating revenue for a year.
6:48
SPEAKER_00: I mean, obviously that didn't cross anybody's mind.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: And where does that put us?
6:51
SPEAKER_00: Puts us confidently to say we're just we've just become this team because of the way the Ricketts bought the Cubs.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: Where I can tell you right now, there's no there is no part of my French.
7:01
SPEAKER_00: I am speaking the Queen's English right now.
7:04
SPEAKER_00: There ain't no fucking way Kyle Tucker's playing for the Chicago Cubs next year.
7:08
SPEAKER_00: Now, you want to blame Jed because hey, he got an extension.
7:11
SPEAKER_00: He the the last person we're pointing our finger at on this is Jed.
7:14
SPEAKER_00: Or Carter Hawkins.
7:17
SPEAKER_00: Or really any of the people in our front office or have anything to do with the Chicago Cubs other than Tom Rickett's in the ownership.
7:23
SPEAKER_00: Because this is big boy stuff.
7:25
SPEAKER_00: When you get to the Kyle Cuckers of the world, that's when the owner, the John Middletons, the guys who own the Phillies that sit down with Chrys Harper and go, We're gonna make you we're gonna make you a Philly for 30 fucking years, whatever contract that guy's on.
7:36
SPEAKER_00: That's when Mark Walter, the guy behind Guggenheim Partners, goes to Shohei Otani and says 70 million.
7:42
SPEAKER_00: You just name your price, buddy.
7:44
SPEAKER_00: This is shit, it's above jet at this point.
7:47
SPEAKER_00: And the fact that we can sit here and say there's a 0% chance the number one free agent who just played a full season at Wrigley Field for one of our better teams in the last decade.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: There's a 0% chance the guy plays for the Cubs.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: That's very obvious.
8:02
SPEAKER_00: Now, working in tandem with that, the Cubs made a qualifying offer to Kyle Tucker.
8:07
SPEAKER_00: He has until November 18th to reject.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: I think it's$22 million.
8:12
SPEAKER_00: He's obviously going to reject the qualifying offer.
8:14
SPEAKER_00: And so now let's talk about Shoda because those these two things work in tandem.
8:19
SPEAKER_00: Shoda, obviously, recently, and I shouldn't say obviously because a lot of you guys are busy.
8:25
SPEAKER_00: So you guys are raising families, going to work, doing a bunch of shit.
8:29
SPEAKER_00: You may not know this, just briefly.
8:32
SPEAKER_00: Shoda Ivanaga had a three-year$57 million contract option that the Cubs turned down.
8:40
SPEAKER_00: And we've talked extensively about Shoda on this show the last couple weeks, but just refresher.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: Cubs, three years,$57 million.
8:48
SPEAKER_00: They don't want it.
8:49
SPEAKER_00: I don't blame them.
8:51
SPEAKER_00: Brutal second half.
8:52
SPEAKER_00: 32 years old.
8:54
SPEAKER_00: A lefty who has to aggressively live over the middle of the plate, who gets success because he's deceptive.
9:00
SPEAKER_00: And now the league has made some adjustments to him.
9:02
SPEAKER_00: The rise on the fastball is not nearly as sharp as it was a year ago.
9:06
SPEAKER_00: More importantly, though, there's thousands of play.
9:10
SPEAKER_00: What how many plate appearances has he seen against now?
9:13
SPEAKER_00: Was it they've seen 1300?
9:15
SPEAKER_00: How many batteries has he faced?
9:17
SPEAKER_00: I was gonna guess 1200.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: I have no clue how many batters he's faced.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: A thousand?
9:22
SPEAKER_00: Enough where there's enough data on him where I can tell you he at the start of the season, you're like, this guy pitches as a one.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: This guy pitches as a two.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: And then just seeing the regression, the league adjustments.
9:34
SPEAKER_00: You know, we come back at the table this winter, we look at Shoda, we go, you know, when would I trust this guy?
9:40
SPEAKER_00: And under that mindset, like I ended up at the end of the year trusting Jamison Taeon more than Shoda.
9:47
SPEAKER_00: Like, I thought Taeon was working his ass off to make his adjustments to get healthy and all that stuff.
9:52
SPEAKER_00: Showday obviously working his ass off to get healthy, but the adjustments aren't there.
9:58
SPEAKER_00: And the big problem is not sharp and not being crisp.
10:02
SPEAKER_00: So if Jed's got to sit down and go, here's three years, here's 57 million, you know, you got to play this guy then.
10:09
SPEAKER_00: And I think we got down the stretch.
10:11
SPEAKER_00: Colin Ray, we exercised his option for 6 million.
10:13
SPEAKER_00: What's the difference between Colin Ray and Shota Imanaga at the end of the year?
10:19
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is ridiculous because we're talking in the future over the next three years, but if you're making these decisions based off what you've seen, based on what we got, I there's no reason I'm feeling even remotely confident enough to say, fuck it, let's just gas it up, give Shoda the three and the 57.
10:35
SPEAKER_00: Now, where this gets layered is Tom Ricketts is just not the owner we need.
10:42
SPEAKER_00: Because we need an owner who's like, of course we're gonna give Shoda three or$57 million.
10:46
SPEAKER_00: He was our first big Japanese pitcher.
10:49
SPEAKER_00: This this guy is a major investment for the club.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: He's an extremely well-liked, popular guy in the Japanese market, and we're fucking this guy.
10:57
SPEAKER_00: We're really fucking this guy.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: And I mean, that's how you can interpret it if you're Shoda, because you get hurt.
11:02
SPEAKER_00: Maybe you get hurt, you're protected by the players' union.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: You have every right to go on the on the IL to rehab to come back.
11:10
SPEAKER_00: And so the fact that Shoda gets hurt, the fact that he regresses, you know, comes down to earth, makes it very easy for Jed to make that decision, which is more telling of the relationship Jed has with Tom.
11:23
SPEAKER_00: Because, hey, these$19 million matter a lot.
11:27
SPEAKER_00: We can't just spread it around for the next three years to Shoda.
11:30
SPEAKER_00: So then obviously Shoda comes back and says, No, I'm not, I'm not gonna take the counter to this, then is Shoda has a two-year,$30 million option.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: He's not picking that up.
11:42
SPEAKER_00: He wants to go test the market.
11:44
SPEAKER_00: He wants, he wants to go see what he's worth.
11:47
SPEAKER_00: He had a$357, the Cubs turn it down.
11:51
SPEAKER_00: You know?
11:52
SPEAKER_00: So then his contract comes back, he has an option, two years 30.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: And he said, I can do better than that.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: So now the Cubs are in this unique position where they made a qualifying offer at Shota for$22.5 million.
12:05
SPEAKER_00: A qualifying offer is basically you have the first right to a guy before he goes to free agency.
12:11
SPEAKER_00: And in the price for that qualifying offer is set by Major League Baseball.
12:15
SPEAKER_00: So the qualifying offer they make to Shodas for one year, the qualifying offer they make to Kyle Tuckers for one year, Kyle Tucker's obviously going to turn down the one-year 22 million.
12:25
SPEAKER_00: The interesting thing is, would Shoda accept a qualifying offer?
12:29
SPEAKER_00: And personally, I think there's 0% chance of that.
12:33
SPEAKER_00: Because the pride, and I mean this sincerely from a cultural standpoint of the way these guys play the game.
12:41
SPEAKER_00: They had a chance.
12:42
SPEAKER_00: You could have had Shoda 357, cut the check.
12:46
SPEAKER_00: Now we're gonna come back, offer you 122, one year and 22 million.
12:51
SPEAKER_00: You know, I know we're coming into the collective bargaining lockout that's around the corner.
12:55
SPEAKER_00: What's that?
12:56
SPEAKER_00: The winner of 2026-27?
12:58
SPEAKER_00: After 2026, we will be in a lockout.
13:02
SPEAKER_00: Does Shoda want to get get a bigger contract?
13:05
SPEAKER_00: I think he's probably looking for three years.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: He's 32 years old.
13:08
SPEAKER_00: He's dominated in Japan, right?
13:11
SPEAKER_00: He's dominated at the World Baseball Classic.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: He's pitched very well for an extended period of time in Major League Baseball, got hurt, fell off, regressed, league adjusted.
13:21
SPEAKER_00: Now, to him, he still thinks he has it.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: To him, he still thinks he can go out and get it.
13:26
SPEAKER_00: I'm sure I absolutely guarantee you the competitor in him is like, I have more in the tank.
13:32
SPEAKER_00: Now, the question this is to me, it's entirely personal decision now.
13:36
SPEAKER_00: Do you want to walk back into that clubhouse and play for the Cubs?
13:39
SPEAKER_00: Would you listen to this right now?
13:41
SPEAKER_00: Whoever you are, Tony, Tom, Frank, Billy, Christian.
13:44
SPEAKER_00: I'm being serious.
13:46
SPEAKER_00: Cubs go, we're not picking up your option.
13:49
SPEAKER_00: You turn around, you go, I'm not picking up mine.
13:51
SPEAKER_00: Fuck you.
13:52
SPEAKER_00: You're not gonna pay me the three years, I'm not taking two years.
13:55
SPEAKER_00: Then the Cubs come back, they go, Fine, here's your qualifying offer.
13:59
SPEAKER_00: And if you're following me on this, this is where really the meat and the juice and the potatoes come from.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: Because if Shoda turns down the qualifying offer, the Cubs get a draft pick in between rounds two and three.
14:12
SPEAKER_00: They're called the competitive balance or top picks or right terminology, someone follow up with me.
14:19
SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'm in London right now, doing a solo show, had a big day outside scene right now.
14:24
SPEAKER_00: I'm putting this together the best I can.
14:27
SPEAKER_00: What I do know is that when Kyle Tucker turns down his qualifying offer, and he has until November 18th to do that, when he turns down his qualifying offer, the Cubs will get a draft pick when he signs somewhere else.
14:43
SPEAKER_00: And again, he's not signing with the Cubs.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry.
14:45
SPEAKER_00: Like if you just bought your kid a Kyle Tucker jersey for Christmas, that's your problem.
14:50
SPEAKER_00: You know, that's a big mistake.
14:54
SPEAKER_00: Showda's different, right?
14:55
SPEAKER_00: Showday can come back and say, hey, I'll take that$22 million.
14:58
SPEAKER_00: That's more than the 19 you guys were gonna pay me, anyways.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: There's part of that.
15:04
SPEAKER_00: But would you take the one year 22?
15:06
SPEAKER_00: Or would you rather go to the market and try and get what, 345?
15:10
SPEAKER_00: Three years, 45 million, three years, 50 million?
15:14
SPEAKER_00: You know, maybe there's some teams out there like the Giants that have cash because they're not huge pussies like the Ricketts family.
15:22
SPEAKER_00: You know, and I shouldn't put it like that.
15:23
SPEAKER_00: I should be more intelligent or educated in my criticisms of the Ricketts.
15:28
SPEAKER_00: But, you know, you can there's I'm sure the guys in Seattle would love to throw a leppy in that rotation.
15:34
SPEAKER_00: I don't think they have any.
15:37
SPEAKER_00: I'm sure the Dodgers are going, we'll take this guy.
15:46
SPEAKER_00: So there's just enough layers to this, which ultimately make me sick that Tom Ricketts has created this environment with the Cubs because we're cat because we're light cash.
15:58
SPEAKER_00: We're light on cash.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: Instead of just saying, yeah, we're picking up the three or 57 million on Shoda.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: And if he only pitches 200 innings over the next three years, I don't give a shit because I'm a rich billionaire and we're the Cubs, and this is how we do business because we like Shoda Ibanaga, and he's been good to this organization, especially after that 2023 season, right?
16:17
SPEAKER_00: That was brutal.
16:19
SPEAKER_00: Show comes in 24, just wins everybody over.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you couldn't win us over any harder, faster, smoother, sweeter than Shoda Ibanaga.
16:29
SPEAKER_00: So, what does it say when we go to the international market?
16:31
SPEAKER_00: We go to Japan, you know, the two hitters, I'm maybe trying to pronounce their names, but two different elite hitters or the pitchers or whoever another guy just got posted or will get posted.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: They're gonna be like, oh, that's the team that does shady contracts.
16:44
SPEAKER_00: That's that's gonna be our reputation now with the Japanese market.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: We're the team that says, Yeah, we're gonna give you five years and 200 million, except after year two, then we're gonna do a three-year option.
16:55
SPEAKER_00: You get a two-year option.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: If that doesn't work, real close.
16:58
SPEAKER_00: I follow this stuff closely.
17:00
SPEAKER_00: I have followed this sport closely my entire life.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: I hold myself out to be an expert when it comes to the sport of baseball, major league baseball, the Chicago Cubs, their history, and everything in between.
17:11
SPEAKER_00: And I'm telling you right now, this is a shady, complicated, layered fucking contract.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: And that's gonna be the reputation when we sit down and talk to some team.
17:23
SPEAKER_00: Well, or talk to the next big Japanese player that we want.
17:27
SPEAKER_00: And how do you think Seiya feels?
17:29
SPEAKER_00: You think say is bummed?
17:30
SPEAKER_00: He's losing his buddy, his countryman?
17:33
SPEAKER_00: You know, say he's the guy who wants to play right field.
17:36
SPEAKER_00: We make him DH.
17:38
SPEAKER_00: You know, say Seiya's a little softy about the way he's been managed with the Cubs.
17:44
SPEAKER_00: Um and now it's only just gonna get worse with the shoulder reputation.
17:49
SPEAKER_00: Now, am I going too deep in this?
17:50
SPEAKER_00: Am I making too much out of this?
17:52
SPEAKER_00: Maybe I am.
17:53
SPEAKER_00: But the point of this exercise is to get everybody on the same page.
17:56
SPEAKER_00: And I'm not saying that if you guys have to agree with me, but these are the considerations in play.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: The cultural consideration of turning down a player's option 357, like we did.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: Then him coming back and saying that I'm not doing the 2 and 30, and to us making a qualifying offer, we didn't get fucked.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: He might take the qualifying offer, which I think would be worst case scenario for Jet Hoyer, because then you got to pitch this guy next year.
18:26
SPEAKER_00: You didn't have confidence in him in the first place.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: And the reason ultimately that we're giving this guy a qualifying offer in the first place is so we get another draft pick just like Kyle Tucker.
18:36
SPEAKER_00: Kyle Tucker walks somewhere else, signs somewhere else.
18:38
SPEAKER_00: We get it'll end up being like the 70th pick in the draft, the 70 between 70 and 80.
18:43
SPEAKER_00: Showed it as the same thing, we get another pick in that same window.
18:47
SPEAKER_00: And the way in just how little cash Tom Ricketts has to increase payroll.
18:54
SPEAKER_00: Um, and I and to be frank with you guys, I think he wants to cut it.
18:57
SPEAKER_00: I think he's trying to figure out how do we cut payroll, you know, and still win 90 games.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: If this makes you mad, please don't take it out on somebody else.
19:08
SPEAKER_00: Like it don't get into an argument with your wife over dinner tonight.
19:11
SPEAKER_00: You know, don't be an asshole of somebody at work today just because you know, showed it this whole show to things a mess.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: But it's it's a bigger implication, not on Jed.
19:21
SPEAKER_00: You know, Jed has to put these contracts together, Jed has to be creative to get him to sign in the first place and all that shit.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: The problem is if Tom is not going to increase the payroll, where we have to, we're extending him as a drop of the bucket.
19:36
SPEAKER_00: We're look like assholes internationally.
19:38
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we look like complete morons internationally, and as we continue to ramp up the quality of Japanese players in our sport, or I should say in our league, as we're continuing to build that bridge between the great players are posting themselves early, are giving up a ton of money so they can come play major league baseball like Shohei, you know, we're gonna be sitting on the outside.
20:01
SPEAKER_00: That's my biggest concern about the way we're handling Showday thing.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: So instead of just paying them$19 million next year, maybe a try and trade him, maybe there's a maybe there's a comment, we're in a position where offering him three and a half more million dollars than the con for next season than the contract we just offered him.
20:19
SPEAKER_00: Or that we just turned down.
20:22
SPEAKER_00: So again, it like if this just doesn't blow your tits clean off your chest, I got something that will.
20:32
SPEAKER_00: And this is from Patrick Nooney and the Athletic.
20:34
SPEAKER_00: This is just a great point because I want to tie.
20:36
SPEAKER_00: All right, well, if we lose Shoda, we lose Kyle Tucker, right?
20:39
SPEAKER_00: We've offered those guys$22.5 million each put together.
20:44
SPEAKER_00: That's$45 million.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: Understandably, Kyle Tucker will not take that offer.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: Shoda Imanaga, most likely 0.1% chance, we'll say.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: A lot of people would then rationally say, now we have$45 million to spend, right?
20:59
SPEAKER_00: We made a qualifying offer to Kyle Tucker, made a qualifying offer to Shona.
21:03
SPEAKER_00: Both of those things combined to 45 million.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: Uh yeah, no, Jed is not gonna go spend 45 million on somebody else.
21:11
SPEAKER_00: He's not.
21:12
SPEAKER_00: We're not gonna, the free agency market, and here's why.
21:16
SPEAKER_00: This is from Patrick Mooney.
21:18
SPEAKER_00: This is I'm just pulling a quote from his article on the athletic from November 6th.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: If the Cubs sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from another team, the Cubs repeat this slowly, sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from another team, which is a good way to say, like, if the Cubs sign a good free agent, like literally, like when you look at the free agent list, you go the good ones, like all those motherfuckers are getting qualified offers.
21:43
SPEAKER_00: Most of them.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: They would lose their second highest selection in the 2026 draft, as well as$500,000 from the international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: There ain't no way Jed Hoyer can reasonably give up our second highest draft pick in half a million dollars while working under the environment.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: Tom Ricketts is created with the cash.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: We don't have the cash.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: We don't have the cash where we can skip out on a year in the draft and just say, we don't need the second pick.
22:17
SPEAKER_00: We don't need our second rounder, or we don't need a competitive balance pick.
22:20
SPEAKER_00: We can't just give that up.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: You think Tom's just gonna give up or that Jed wants to give up$500,000 in the international slot?
22:28
SPEAKER_00: He needs it.
22:28
SPEAKER_00: He needs to go find superstars that he can sign.
22:31
SPEAKER_00: He needs every Pete Crow Armstrong and Matt Shaw he can get.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: We're basically becoming the Tampa race.
22:45
SPEAKER_00: We we're literally in real time, slowly decaying into the Tampa race.
22:51
SPEAKER_00: And I just have to get this off my chest.
22:53
SPEAKER_00: Now, the GM meetings right now going on in Las Vegas.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: Jed's out there sniffing.
23:02
SPEAKER_00: I think sincerely the path forward to improve the club this offseason is gonna have to be big trade.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: Could be starting pitcher, could be position player.
23:13
SPEAKER_00: I'm in London, had a big day sightseeing.
23:16
SPEAKER_00: I'm not in any position to start naming freaking names.
23:18
SPEAKER_00: You guys, you might have some names.
23:20
SPEAKER_00: Send them my way, send trade proposals.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: I will evaluate them for the next show.
23:24
SPEAKER_00: I promise you guys on everything that is sacred and holy.
23:27
SPEAKER_00: I will sit down and go through trade proposals you guys have submitted.
23:31
SPEAKER_00: You know, but that that's quite frankly, and is it for a young guy?
23:36
SPEAKER_00: Is it for an aging veteran?
23:38
SPEAKER_00: You know, this is the reality that we're in.
23:40
SPEAKER_00: The reason I'm so disappointed about this, I thought we'd bounce back from the COVID losses by now.
23:45
SPEAKER_00: Like I understood the financing agreement.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: I understand that the Cubs bleeding money.
23:51
SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, you take out a loan, you got to pay the debt.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: And the huge thing with this loan, this$845 million loan the Cubs took out, the Ricketts family took out to buy the Cubs.
24:01
SPEAKER_00: Again, I'm going back to it, is the debt service.
24:03
SPEAKER_00: The cost each year, which otherwise known as interest, that they have to pay on that to keep to get that loan and maintain it, is so I'll have an exact number for you guys.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: Give me two weeks.
24:17
SPEAKER_00: I got my hands on an original 160 slide PowerPoint deck from 2009 that the Ricketts family hired a due diligence firm to put together that explains all their different banking options.
24:30
SPEAKER_00: And ultimately the one they went with, I believe, is$845 million from JP Morgan Chase.
24:35
SPEAKER_00: And I'll have a number for you guys on interest this offseason.
24:38
SPEAKER_00: I will get the calculator out because if I speak too specifically about this, this that's kind of dangerous territory.
24:45
SPEAKER_00: That's dangerous territory.
24:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean that.
24:47
SPEAKER_00: I don't need the Ricketts family attorney sending me some defamation bullshit.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: I'll get an exact number.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: But here's what I'm comfortable saying.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: It's fucking high.
24:57
SPEAKER_00: It's higher than it needs to be.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: And the entire situation has created this.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: Five years after the pandemic, we're still sitting around raising the price of hot dogs, raising the price of season tickets, putting a fucking sponsorship on every single thing we can get our hands on.
25:12
SPEAKER_00: In meantime, we are laughing at the idea that Kyle Tucker, the number one free agent in this class, would sign a long-term contract with the Cubs after playing on one of our most successful teams we've had in a decade.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: That's the situation we've created.
25:27
SPEAKER_00: And who else can you blame?
25:29
SPEAKER_00: If I hear one person blaming Jed Hoyer, guy's a pro.
25:34
SPEAKER_00: Guy is as good as he could possibly ask for with all these bogus ass constraints put in from Kane Kenny and Tom Ricketts.
25:43
SPEAKER_00: So when I say Tom should consider selling the Cubs, what do they go for in the open market?
25:48
SPEAKER_00: If you bought them for 900 million, which I believe was the number, if you buy them for 900 million and you have Wrigley Field, can you just sell 10%?
25:59
SPEAKER_00: 10% would cover your cost acquisition, right?
26:02
SPEAKER_00: No, it wouldn't.
26:02
SPEAKER_00: How much are the Cubs worth?
26:04
SPEAKER_00: 5 billion, 6 billion?
26:06
SPEAKER_00: Sell 15% of the Cubs, Tom.
26:09
SPEAKER_00: Make your 900 million back in cash, put it in your pocket.
26:12
SPEAKER_00: You know, bring in some other people that are willing to infuse cash into payroll because they see it as a long-term play that the better the cubs are, the more success they're gonna have.
26:22
SPEAKER_00: The Ricketts family, it's just a real estate investment.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: And I'm mad that I didn't come around on this in 2021, in 2022.
26:33
SPEAKER_00: That when we got rid of Chris Bryant, I'm thinking, you know what, it's just because Chris Bryant doesn't fit where we're going.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: But then Javi and then Rizzo.
26:40
SPEAKER_00: And not to say, hey, careers went the way careers went.
26:45
SPEAKER_00: But we've we're never even in a position to like, oh, that turned out to be a bad deal.
26:50
SPEAKER_00: That that we we turned out to overpay for that.
26:53
SPEAKER_00: We overpaid for Jason Hayward.
26:55
SPEAKER_00: We'll never overpay again.
26:58
SPEAKER_00: COVID.
26:59
SPEAKER_00: We blame COVID.
27:00
SPEAKER_00: This is a solo show.
27:01
SPEAKER_00: I'm in London.
27:01
SPEAKER_00: There's not gonna be any outro music.
27:03
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna tell you there's one last thing I need to talk about, and that's PCA.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: He doesn't get the platinum glove.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: So platinum glove goes to the best defender.
27:11
SPEAKER_00: Fernando Tapis Jr.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: won it.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: A lot of Cubs fans are mad about it.
27:15
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, that's bullshit because PCA, you know, can go and get it.
27:19
SPEAKER_00: He's just as good as it gets in centerfield.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: He's just by far the best defender in Major League Baseball.
27:24
SPEAKER_00: It's not even close.
27:25
SPEAKER_00: The reason he didn't win that award is because the national media doesn't like him.
27:28
SPEAKER_00: The national audience doesn't like him.
27:30
SPEAKER_00: We like him.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: We like PCA.
27:34
SPEAKER_00: We are lit.
27:35
SPEAKER_00: Cubs fans are literally the only people on the planet that like Pete Gromch and his family and friends from back home, Harvard Westlake High School.
27:44
SPEAKER_00: But if you think, you know, voting members or fans or however they determine this shit, people hate his guts.
27:52
SPEAKER_00: And the reason is, and this is what I'm learning from this platinum glove stuff, is because people wish he was on their team.
27:58
SPEAKER_00: It's like Pete Rose.
27:59
SPEAKER_00: A lot of people hated playing against Pete Rose because he was just so tough to play against.
28:03
SPEAKER_00: But if Pete Rose is on your team, he'd be your favorite player.
28:06
SPEAKER_00: That's just an old saying about Pete Rose.
28:09
SPEAKER_00: Hate his guts unless he was on your team.
28:11
SPEAKER_00: And I think a big talent sign from the this Platinum Glove bullshit.
28:15
SPEAKER_00: I mean, Fernando Tatis Jr.
28:17
SPEAKER_00: is literally had to sit out for doing steroids.
28:21
SPEAKER_00: Is literally tested positive for doing steroids.
28:26
SPEAKER_00: And we're at a time in the calendar where we're talking about Barry Bond's Hall of Fame eligibility, eligibility, Roger Clemens eligibility.
28:33
SPEAKER_00: They've got some veteran thing coming up.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: Oh, the tainted horrors of letting these guys into the sacred halls of Cooperstown.
28:41
SPEAKER_00: PEDs, steroids.
28:43
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr.
28:46
SPEAKER_00: TEDs, steroids, platinum glove.
28:50
SPEAKER_00: So what is what does that say to you about how people feel about Peter Armstrong?
28:55
SPEAKER_00: So you know what my closing message is for today's Monday morning hub show?
28:59
SPEAKER_00: First is thank you guys for tuning in.
29:00
SPEAKER_00: Second is we gotta ride on Pete.
29:02
SPEAKER_00: We gotta get behind Pete, and we gotta do a better job telling people to suck our hmm.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: Pound sand.
29:09
SPEAKER_00: We got to do a better job of supporting P.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: Crow Armstrong because my biggest takeaway from this, if he didn't win the I thought that's a shoe-in-runaway platinum glove, of course, P.
29:17
SPEAKER_00: Crow Armstrong's gonna win Platinum Glove.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: Of course.
29:20
SPEAKER_00: Now we're gonna give it to Todd Peace Jr.
29:23
SPEAKER_00: because he robbed more home runs or whatever crazy bullshit argument I heard.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: He's a better throwing arm.
29:30
SPEAKER_00: It's just some ridiculous shit like that.
29:33
SPEAKER_00: No, it just tells me, all right, fine, you guys are gonna be against us, fuck you guys.
29:37
SPEAKER_00: National media wants to hate Pete Crow Armstrong, we're gonna run it down your throats.
29:41
SPEAKER_00: And I think honestly, it's a good thing for P.
29:44
SPEAKER_00: Carl PCA in the long run to not win the Platinum Globe because we need a little bit more chip on his shoulder this offseason.
29:51
SPEAKER_00: He's got a chip on his shoulder, just like last offseason, he had a chip on his shoulder for being a punch and duty guy with no power.
29:58
SPEAKER_00: Now he's got a chip chip on his shoulder.
30:00
SPEAKER_00: His shoulder because he fell off a cliff in the second half.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: I don't think he was injured.
30:04
SPEAKER_00: And now he's not getting the respect that he deserves from the entire baseball world.
30:10
SPEAKER_00: Except for Cubs fans.
30:11
SPEAKER_00: We're really the only people that got up and were like, we are so lucky to watch this guy play.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: There are some exceptions out there, obviously.
30:19
SPEAKER_00: And then obviously Kate Horton, he should win rookie of the year.
30:22
SPEAKER_00: When does that get announced?
30:24
SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't know, but I will take a victory lap because I said this in May.
30:29
SPEAKER_00: I someone go find him.
30:32
SPEAKER_00: I told you he'd be the best pitcher on the Cubs.
30:35
SPEAKER_00: I meant it.
30:36
SPEAKER_00: You just go through this stuff, you go through the profile, you know, you use your experience of watching pitchers, hitters.
30:42
SPEAKER_00: How does this stuff how does a guy like him evolve through a season?
30:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean, where does he get better?
30:48
SPEAKER_00: As long as Cade Horton's healthy, he will be a Cy Young contender.
30:51
SPEAKER_00: I repeat, as long as Cade Horton is healthy, he will be a Cy Young contender for the duration of his career until he hits the fourth quarter.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: Until it starts to, you know, until the 97 turns into 93.
31:04
SPEAKER_00: I think I think that's a completely fair thing to say based on what we see from Cade Horton.
31:08
SPEAKER_00: But we don't need to get too deep on Cade Horton.
31:10
SPEAKER_00: We'll save that for next episode when I'm back with Maholiday back in the States.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: I'll do some more research.
31:14
SPEAKER_00: But this is a Monday morning cup show.
31:16
SPEAKER_00: I tell you guys, I'm serious about this stuff.
31:18
SPEAKER_00: I'm committed to it.
31:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm passionate about it.
31:20
SPEAKER_00: You guys got an opportunity, go get yourself a Thirsty McCarrow.
31:23
SPEAKER_00: They are the official beverage sponsor of the Monday Morning Cup Show.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: And also, you know, not for nothing.
31:29
SPEAKER_00: We're in London on a Sturk Family Farms trip.
31:32
SPEAKER_00: You know, we were like, we'll start the business and we're going to London.
31:37
SPEAKER_00: We're going to treat ourselves.
31:38
SPEAKER_00: We're going to we're going to work our asses off on this business.
31:41
SPEAKER_00: You know.
31:42
SPEAKER_00: So we're in London.
31:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm doing the show.
31:44
SPEAKER_00: I'd be remiss not to remind you guys 20% off the entire store for Monday morning maniacs.
31:49
SPEAKER_00: Promo code MMCS.
31:50
SPEAKER_00: So just go to StirkFamilyFarms.com.
31:52
SPEAKER_00: That's a family business.
31:54
SPEAKER_00: Skin care needs.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: Who would have thought?
31:56
SPEAKER_00: Who would have thought, Carl Sliggan, we got Wagyu eye cream.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: Wagyu beef tallow eye cream.
32:03
SPEAKER_00: Isn't that that we're the only people on the market that sell this stuff?
32:06
SPEAKER_00: We got miracle bomb for hands.
32:08
SPEAKER_00: We got miracle bomb for face.
32:10
SPEAKER_00: It's that time of the season.
32:11
SPEAKER_00: We got lip balm for the girls.
32:13
SPEAKER_00: You know, you're trying to you're trying to get something nice for your mom for Christmas.
32:18
SPEAKER_00: So I guarantee you your mother will look at you completely different.
32:21
SPEAKER_00: You give her this hand cream.
32:23
SPEAKER_00: Or your wife or your girlfriend or your ex-girlfriend.
32:26
SPEAKER_00: You know you're trying to reekind the light magic around the holiday season.
32:29
SPEAKER_00: Monday morning cub show promo is MMCS at StorCanleyFarms.com.
32:33
SPEAKER_00: I will not let you down.
32:34
SPEAKER_00: I promise that.
32:35
SPEAKER_00: I promise you that.
32:37
SPEAKER_00: Um, in the meantime, we're going to be back next Monday.
32:40
SPEAKER_00: Loaded show.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: Couple big things coming up on the horizon.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: Can't wait to see what we do at these winter meetings.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: Can't wait to get some news out of these GM meetings.
32:48
SPEAKER_00: But for the time being, just try and rally some support around PCA.
32:52
SPEAKER_00: Be as critical as you want about Tom Rickett's inability to dump more cash into the Cubs, to go to his dad Joe for more cash, for the family to take out a loan, to do whatever it is that they can do to increase payroll.
33:05
SPEAKER_00: That's literally the only thing that matters is getting back to be an aggressive, you know, tier one organization in Major League Baseball and not this slapdick joke, Tampa Rays bullshit we've been seeing lately.
33:16
SPEAKER_00: I apologize for the language.
33:18
SPEAKER_00: I apologize for not having intro, outro music.
33:20
SPEAKER_00: We're doing this on an iPhone in London.
33:22
SPEAKER_00: God bless you guys.
33:23
SPEAKER_00: I love you.
33:24
SPEAKER_00: I'll be back next week.
33:24
SPEAKER_00: And of course, Go Cups.