Latest / The Morning Edition / Polls, the media and what's really driving One Nation’s support

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Polls, the media and what's really driving One Nation’s support · The Morning Edition

• 0:01
  S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to Inside Politics from
• 0:04
  S1: the age and the Sydney Morning Herald. A very big Sydney.
• 0:09
  S1: Hello to our chief political correspondent, Paul Satchell, who's joining
• 0:12
  S1: us from the Canberra studio, as usual.
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  S2: Morning, Jack. How are you?
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  S1: I'm very well, thank you. Paul, I just want to
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  S1: check in briefly on the budget for our listeners. The
• 0:22
  S1: last time we talked about it, we were in what
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  S1: I called our budget backlash era, and now we've moved
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  S1: to some sort of other era, I think, which is
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  S1: like begrudged resignation or, I don't know, budget fatigue. But
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  S1: you had a story this week about some changes that
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  S1: the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, might make to the cutting back
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  S1: of the capital gains tax concessions that they announced in
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  S1: the budget. Tell us what the government is thinking about doing.
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  S2: Yeah, you're right. We definitely have moved into a new phase.
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  S2: The media cycle has moved on a bit from the budget.
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  S2: There is still stories every day in various papers about
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  S2: different groups who are complaining about various elements of the budget.
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  S2: Beat the truss element, how it might affect charities, how
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  S2: it might affect biotech sectors. So the backlash is is
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  S2: real and will continue. But the focus has gone on
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  S2: to One Nation, which we've been kind of locked into
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  S2: for months now, but we'll get on to that in
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  S2: a second. Yeah. So the story I had this week, Jack,
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  S2: was around this carve out that the treasurer, Jim Chalmers,
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  S2: has been hinting at for weeks. People will remember on
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  S2: budget night, the government said that they would consult with
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  S2: the startup and tech sector about how this new CGT
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  S2: model might affect businesses with a low cost base, high
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  S2: growth businesses. This is one of the key concerns around
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  S2: the budget that might actually stifle the incentives for people
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  S2: to build a new business, and what the government's looking
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  S2: at is potentially retaining the old 50% capital gains tax discount,
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  S2: the Howard era model that they've shifted away from for
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  S2: certain businesses, which, without going into huge technical detail, might
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  S2: suffer under the new model. This would be to try
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  S2: and ameliorate the concern that the changes might hamper business investment.
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  S2: The government's also looking at expanding the capital gains tax
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  S2: exemptions that already exist for companies with turnover of less
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  S2: than $2 million. They might push that up to somewhere,
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  S2: possibly in the $5 million region. I don't know where
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  S2: they'll push it to so that they can effectively tell
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  S2: the community, all of these smaller mum and dad businesses
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  S2: and various other, you know, shops, strip businesses, we're not
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  S2: coming after you don't listen to the scare campaign. They're
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  S2: also probably going to unwind an element around discretionary testamentary trust,
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  S2: which have been turned into a death tax scare campaign
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  S2: by the Liberal Party, arguably misleadingly or falsely Liberal party
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  S2: would say fairly. So. It's an attempt to kind of
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  S2: tamp down some of the the concern around the budget.
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  S1: Yep. Okay. And so presumably pretty soon they'll announce whatever
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  S1: tweaks they're going to make to their, to what they
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  S1: announced in the budget. And maybe, as you say, exempting
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  S1: particularly start up businesses from the axing of the CGT discount.
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  S1: So when are they likely to present their budget measures
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  S1: in legislation before the Parliament?
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  S2: So the week after next, and then the week after that,
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  S2: the government will try and ram this legislation through. So
• 3:02
  S2: we're a week and a bit away from those sitting weeks.
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  S2: There'll be a very short two day inquiry, which has
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  S2: been widely panned by teals, greens, business groups, various others.
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  S2: And then we'll see the legislation put through the Senate
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  S2: in the week after that. And there'll be some really
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  S2: intriguing wrangling with the Greens and the coalition to see
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  S2: where the government can strike a deal. The Prime Minister
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  S2: is personally very confident that the Greens will cave eventually
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  S2: and not open themselves up to a what will be
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  S2: a really strong line from the government that the Greens
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  S2: are standing in the way of progressive reform, as they
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  S2: did last term, on housing, which labor used against them successfully.
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  S1: Yep. And Paul, the other big story, and really the
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  S1: only story in politics right now is the growing rise
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  S1: of Pauline Hanson's One Nation. At the beginning of the week,
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  S1: we saw yet another poll, Newspoll, showing that One Nation
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  S1: was outpolling labor and the coalition as opposed to just
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  S1: the coalition. And then on Wednesday this week, Hanson launched
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  S1: a big fundraising campaign called Fire the Liar, which was
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  S1: a website, basically, and they sought donations, and they claimed
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  S1: to have raised $1.6 million from that by Thursday, which
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  S1: is absolutely extraordinary. It's a pretty good time to be
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  S1: Pauline Hanson, isn't it?
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  S2: It's a really good I didn't know I'd gone to 1.6.
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  S2: I thought it was like 800,000 yesterday when I left work.
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  S2: Bloody hell.
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  S1: That's what's being reported as of Thursday morning. So I
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  S1: mean and as we say, that's what they claim to
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  S1: have raised. They haven't actually declared that through the normal
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  S1: channels yet. And they're not they don't have to. But yeah.
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  S2: And I know there were journalists not, not me, but
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  S2: some of my colleagues and other outlets yesterday trying to
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  S2: interrogate this website, which is like, it looks like a
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  S2: Go Fund Me page. And the numbers tick over. There's
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  S2: a claim the government the government on Wednesday afternoon was
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  S2: saying in, you know, in hushed tones that they believe
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  S2: that this was like a fake website, effectively where the
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  S2: numbers just ticked up based on time, not based on
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  S2: anything else. So there's some conjecture around it.
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  S1: Yeah. We want to make that really clear that it's
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  S1: not verified and it hasn't been declared yet, so formally.
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  S1: So that's just what One Nation is saying.
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  S2: They've raised it wouldn't surprise. I mean, just before we
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  S2: get on to One Nation, I just thought like you've
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  S2: followed Canberra politics for a while. Jack, can you ever
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  S2: recall a period where polling sets the media narrative up
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  S2: so frequently? I feel like there is a poll now,
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  S2: whether it's any one of the four major newspapers, Sky news,
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  S2: some of the tabloids have polls now, some of the
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  S2: smaller media outlets like Capital Brief. There's a poll that
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  S2: sets up the agenda every Monday, and we spend two
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  S2: days talking about the rise of One Nation. It's quite
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  S2: a I feel like it's a new feature.
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  S1: I mean, I feel like this this definitely happened a
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  S1: lot during the Gillard government when they were just tanking
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  S1: in the polls. And it certainly happened to Tony Abbott.
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  S1: I mean, you know, polling the politicians always say that
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  S1: they don't take any notice of it, but they certainly
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  S1: exploit it whenever they can. And with something like this,
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  S1: I think it is quite amazing. It's become quite self-perpetuating. Like,
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  S1: the more we report on the polling, the more people
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  S1: are like, oh, that's pretty credible. Other people are doing it,
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  S1: you know. I'll add my name to in the One
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  S1: Nation column. I feel like that's happening. But that alone
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  S1: does not deliver votes. It doesn't, you know, it certainly
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  S1: doesn't deliver necessarily donations whether or not they can convert
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  S1: all of this surge in support and apparently in even
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  S1: financial support into votes for credible candidates that they may
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  S1: or may not be able to put up, is another question.
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  S1: I mean, I want to move on. You spoke to
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  S1: Opposition Leader Angus Taylor this week, and he made this
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  S1: sort of strange comments that he thought the budget had
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  S1: hurt the coalition somehow because it was bleeding votes, helping
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  S1: the vote bleed to to One nation, which made him
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  S1: sound a bit silly. There's no doubt that labor is
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  S1: under pressure from One Nation as well. But it's not
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  S1: existential despair like the coalition is in at the moment. No.
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  S1: Is there any sense that Taylor has been able to
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  S1: staunch the bleeding at all, or at least do a
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  S1: better job than Suzanne Lee.
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  S2: Mhm. Well, the basis for the leadership change in February
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  S2: was expressed most clearly by James Patterson, the frontbencher who
• 7:03
  S2: was key to the move. And he said this is
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  S2: a change or die moment with bleed with bleed X
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  S2: thousand votes each month under Suzanne Lee. And things have
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  S2: to change. And at that point, the Newspoll primary vote,
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  S2: which was used to justify the move, was at 18%
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  S2: for the coalition. Angus Taylor increased that vote steadily over
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  S2: the space of the first couple of months, into the
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  S2: low to mid 20s in some polls, so he'd stop
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  S2: the bleeding and started to reverse course slowly and build
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  S2: up credibility again and do some policy work and get
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  S2: the team united, which he did do. But now they're
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  S2: back at 18% again. And as I think we said
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  S2: here last week, the expectation post Labor's budget was that
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  S2: a big high tax in broken promise budget would naturally
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  S2: lead vote back to the coalition. It hasn't done that.
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  S2: So our assumptions have been shattered about the normal way
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  S2: that politics works. And Angus Taylor's comments on Monday to
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  S2: our paper, as you say, were that the reason for
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  S2: the low primary vote and the sinking coalition primary vote
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  S2: was that Labor's bad budget had created discontent around the
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  S2: Canberra political establishment. It had broken faith with voters and
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  S2: that that had effectively rubbed off on both the major parties,
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  S2: which had been seen in the eyes of disillusioned voters
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  S2: as one and the same. You know, One Nation has
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  S2: this quite effective line out in the community that there's a, quote,
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  S2: uni party, labor and liberal exactly the same. They're both
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  S2: they're both out to get you and where your true, um, alternative.
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  S2: So Angus Taylor has kind of legitimised that by saying
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  S2: that Labor's bad budget has somehow hurt him. Now, his
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  S2: colleagues were quite mixed in their views on those comments.
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  S2: Some thought thought it was quite a weak comment to make.
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  S2: Others kind of agreed with him, but thought it probably
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  S2: was not worth saying out loud. They were quite mixed
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  S2: views on it.
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  S1: Mhm. I mean, he might well be right, actually, but
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  S1: that doesn't mean, as you say, that he should have
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  S1: said it out loud because he's not taking any responsibility
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  S1: for the fact that the vote of the party that
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  S1: he leads is still tanking. Newly appointed Liberal Party president
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  S1: Tony Abbott has been out and about. He was spotted
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  S1: having dinner with former Liberal donor Angus Atkin, who's a stockbroker,
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  S1: very wealthy stockbroker who switched his allegiance to One Nation.
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  S1: Angus Atkin and his wife donated 1 million to 1 Nation,
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  S1: and they were former, formerly Liberal Party donors. So he
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  S1: must be trying to woo back. I mean, one can
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  S1: surmise that perhaps he's trying to woo back some of
• 9:17
  S1: that money to Liberal coffers. He's also said that he's
• 9:20
  S1: going to do a listening tour of branch meetings. And
• 9:22
  S1: he gave a speech in Washington where he's talked about
• 9:25
  S1: the Liberals woes and mistakes. He's everywhere. He seems to
• 9:28
  S1: have provided some fresh energy to the Liberals. And perhaps
• 9:31
  S1: he's revved up the base. But, I mean, how successful
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  S1: is he likely to be in actually helping to resurrect
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  S1: the Liberal Party vote? And is he really the man
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  S1: who's going to lead the Liberals and the coalition out
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  S1: of this malaise, given the baggage he brings with him
• 9:44
  S1: and given, you know, he's a very effective politician in
• 9:47
  S1: some ways, or political operator, but he's not, I would say,
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  S1: not particularly good at. He doesn't have a track record
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  S1: of bringing people along with him in a broad coalition.
• 9:57
  S2: Well, if the if the aim for Abbott was to
• 10:00
  S2: rally the conservative base and try and bring social and
• 10:04
  S2: cultural conservatives back in the coalition tent, I understood, I
• 10:08
  S2: understood it, and so did even quite a few moderates
• 10:11
  S2: in the party. There is a logical coherence there. This
• 10:14
  S2: is a person who is respected in that part of
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  S2: the community, and quite adored by Liberal Party branch members
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  S2: who are considering or have already flocked to One Nation.
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  S2: The big risk with Abbott was that he would become
• 10:25
  S2: involved in day to day political debate, take attention away
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  S2: from the opposition leader and cause shadow cabinet ministers to
• 10:32
  S2: become answerable for the comments he made. He insisted he
• 10:35
  S2: wouldn't do this. And they were kind of, you know,
• 10:38
  S2: oblique warnings from people like James Patterson and Tim Wilson
• 10:41
  S2: and others who insisted in the early days after he
• 10:44
  S2: was elected that it was an administrative role. They're trying
• 10:46
  S2: to diminish the role of president, to keep him in
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  S2: his box. And the first comment that Abbott made that
• 10:53
  S2: cut across this idea that he would stick in his
• 10:56
  S2: lane was on, I think it was Tuesday morning when
• 10:58
  S2: he gave a very short quote to The Australian Financial
• 11:02
  S2: Review on the prospect of a preference deal with One Nation.
• 11:05
  S2: We're two years away from an election. The conversation around
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  S2: preferences is very problematic for the coalition because One Nation voters,
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  S2: if they hear a coalition MP distancing themselves from One Nation,
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  S2: are often saying, why are you pushing Hanson away? Work
• 11:22
  S2: with her to defeat labor. On the other hand, if
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  S2: they do submit to one nation, there is a chance
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  S2: they are fairly characterized by labor as only being able
• 11:32
  S2: to govern in coalition with One Nation, which is a
• 11:34
  S2: highly damaging prospect for middle of the ground voters and swinging,
• 11:38
  S2: swinging liberal labor voters. So Abbott's comment on Tuesday just
• 11:41
  S2: raised up this debate. He almost made it, made a comment,
• 11:44
  S2: which was a truism, which is that we put the
• 11:46
  S2: right wing parties ahead of the left wing ones. They've
• 11:48
  S2: done that at several recent elections. It's been a long time,
• 11:51
  S2: decades since the coalition preferenced One Nation last. A lot
• 11:55
  S2: has changed. If they did that, their own conservative voters
• 11:58
  S2: would probably revolt against them. So there's not much expectation
• 12:02
  S2: that they would. But just by raising up this debate,
• 12:04
  S2: it was it was widely viewed in the party room
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  S2: as a really unhelpful comment from Abbott and has raised
• 12:09
  S2: this concern about his role.
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  S1: Well, I mean, this is this is what I find
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  S1: interesting about it because it has sort of dominated discussion.
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  S1: I think I think actually ordinary voters and maybe low
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  S1: information voters actually don't know very well how our preference
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  S1: system works. So they do often follow how to vote cards,
• 12:24
  S1: which is what we talk about when what we're really
• 12:26
  S1: talking about, when we're talking about doing preference deals. You know,
• 12:29
  S1: 30 years ago, former Prime Minister John Howard famously said
• 12:32
  S1: he would not preference One Nation or preference some last.
• 12:34
  S1: But as you say, a lot has changed. And I
• 12:36
  S1: think John Howard's changed his view. But within the coalition,
• 12:40
  S1: this these comments by Tony Abbott seem to have kicked
• 12:42
  S1: off even more divisions. So you've got now Tony Pasin,
• 12:47
  S1: who's a, you know, a very, very sort of hard
• 12:50
  S1: conservative from South Australia within the Liberal ranks, a Liberal
• 12:55
  S1: MP saying making comments to the Australian on Thursday, saying that,
• 13:00
  S1: you know, not only should they do preference deals, but
• 13:02
  S1: they should actually work out with One Nation, basically do
• 13:05
  S1: a seat, carve up and say, we won't. The Liberals
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  S1: won't contest this seat. One nation can have that seat.
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  S1: But you know, in return, the Liberals will will contest
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  S1: this seat without any one nation competition. Now that's you're
• 13:18
  S1: talking there about really a low C lowercase c coalition
• 13:23
  S1: between the Liberals or the coalition and One Nation, which
• 13:26
  S1: is extraordinary. It's been raised before by some hard right
• 13:30
  S1: members of the coalition and others have shot it down.
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  S1: What how has that gone down, those comments.
• 13:35
  S2: Well, you're right, they were seen as extraordinary. When this
• 13:38
  S2: story went up on Wednesday evening, coalition MPs were sending
• 13:41
  S2: it around to one another and they were gobsmacked. There
• 13:44
  S2: is a big difference between what Abbott is talking about,
• 13:47
  S2: which is closer coordination on preferences, emulating the Labor Greens model,
• 13:51
  S2: which has been super successful on the left to create
• 13:54
  S2: more discipline preference flows. There's a big difference between that
• 13:57
  S2: and what Pasin, who's a shadow cabinet member, a close
• 14:01
  S2: ally of Angus Taylor, a polarizing figure in the party
• 14:05
  S2: room from South Australia, represents a conservative regional seat which
• 14:08
  S2: just got dominated by One Nation at a state level.
• 14:11
  S2: He's effectively argued that the coalition in One Nation should
• 14:15
  S2: get together and split up the seats, so that they're
• 14:18
  S2: not running against one another. That's pretty much what the
• 14:20
  S2: Nationals and Liberal Party do now. Yeah, and so that
• 14:24
  S2: comment was, you know, one of three remarks, sets of
• 14:28
  S2: remarks this week. First, the Taylor remarks to me, then
• 14:31
  S2: the Abbott comment to the Australian Financial Review, and then
• 14:34
  S2: the Pasin comments, which were seen by observers in the coalition,
• 14:38
  S2: has just been expressions of the sign of Confusion in
• 14:43
  S2: coalition ranks, but the parson comments, the parson comments are
• 14:46
  S2: the most clear expression of the panic that set in
• 14:49
  S2: because they. For the first time it was an MP saying,
• 14:52
  S2: all right, mate, the implicit message there is we can't
• 14:55
  S2: win this election alone. We've got to work with One Nation.
• 14:58
  S2: Labor's been arguing for weeks and months that the Liberal
• 15:02
  S2: one National Party, as Albanese has taken to calling it,
• 15:06
  S2: is the future of right wing politics. It's a highly
• 15:09
  S2: damaging argument, and parson legitimized it through those comments.
• 15:12
  S1: Yeah, that's that's what I find so interesting that they
• 15:15
  S1: can't get their lines straight on One Nation. And we've
• 15:17
  S1: known for a long time that One Nation has been,
• 15:20
  S1: you know, the resurgence of One Nation is very, very
• 15:22
  S1: difficult for the coalition to deal with. There's some people within,
• 15:25
  S1: you know, liberal ranks who kind of despise everything that
• 15:28
  S1: One Nation stands for, you know, the remaining moderates and
• 15:31
  S1: even people like James Paterson, who is not a moderate,
• 15:34
  S1: he's a conservative. You know, he's a very well respected
• 15:37
  S1: member of their shadow cabinet. And he has previously given
• 15:40
  S1: speeches saying that, you know, basically they should completely distance
• 15:43
  S1: themselves from everything that One nation stands for. We should
• 15:46
  S1: say Angus Taylor came out and said, there's absolutely no
• 15:49
  S1: plan to basically carve up seats with One Nation. And
• 15:52
  S1: James Patterson went on radio on Thursday morning and really
• 15:54
  S1: pushed back against it as well. But as you say,
• 15:57
  S1: this is playing into both the hands of One Nation,
• 15:59
  S1: which is basically like, it just looks like it's in
• 16:02
  S1: the ascendancy and it's almost got the coalition coming to
• 16:05
  S1: it cap in hand, saying, hey, will you do business
• 16:08
  S1: with us? Can we have a little bit of your success, please?
• 16:11
  S1: And then the labor government, Albanese is able to say, well,
• 16:14
  S1: you're all the same. You're the Liberal one National party.
• 16:16
  S1: So they're almost turning that one Nation line about the
• 16:19
  S1: uni parties onto the right wing parties. I mean, it's
• 16:22
  S1: a it's a mess, isn't it?
• 16:24
  S2: It's a diabolical situation for the coalition. I mean, if
• 16:26
  S2: they dropped two points in the next poll and One
• 16:28
  S2: Nation increases by one point, they'll be polling at half
• 16:32
  S2: One Nation's support. So what these all of these sets
• 16:35
  S2: of comments display this week is that there is total
• 16:38
  S2: paralysis and confusion on the path forward, and there's a
• 16:42
  S2: new party director in place, Lincoln Follow, who's about to
• 16:44
  S2: start conducting some research on how to turn this around.
• 16:47
  S2: But it's quite clear at this stage that there is
• 16:50
  S2: no consensus on how to have this fight. Andrew Hastie,
• 16:53
  S2: The frontbencher, came out this week and started attacking Pauline
• 16:55
  S2: Hanson on the basis of her fervent support for Donald Trump.
• 16:59
  S2: That was criticised by Sky news commentators and not the
• 17:02
  S2: path forward. There's a bunch of different ideas on how
• 17:04
  S2: to take on Hanson, but they're all still being germinated.
• 17:08
  S2: So One Nation is totally ascendant at this stage. None
• 17:11
  S2: of the normal rules seem to apply. Most people are
• 17:14
  S2: not talking about Angus Taylor being removed as leader. People
• 17:16
  S2: want to give him some time, but nobody yet is
• 17:19
  S2: clear on how long this will take to turn around.
• 17:22
  S2: If it will turn around the extent to which it will.
• 17:24
  S2: And so in some darker corners of the corridors in Canberra,
• 17:27
  S2: some coalition MPs are wondering to themselves whether the future
• 17:31
  S2: configuration of right wing politics will necessitate some sort of
• 17:35
  S2: looser alliance between the coalition and One Nation. But nobody
• 17:38
  S2: wants to put that forward yet because, as we've just said,
• 17:41
  S2: it's a damaging prospect. But then passengers said the quiet
• 17:44
  S2: bit out loud.
• 17:46
  S1: It's just I mean, this is this is Menzies great party.
• 17:49
  S1: This is the part, you know, supposed to be a
• 17:51
  S1: party of government that, you know, that captures the the
• 17:54
  S1: aspirations of middle Australia and middle class Australians. And it
• 17:58
  S1: seems it's edging sort of ever further to the sort
• 18:02
  S1: of more right extreme of our politics. Meanwhile, you know,
• 18:06
  S1: Anthony Albanese and the labor government, I mean, they're not
• 18:08
  S1: out of the woods either. Pauline Hanson has been in
• 18:11
  S1: WA talking about the seats that the labor seats she'd
• 18:14
  S1: like to target there. There is a whole bunch of seats,
• 18:16
  S1: particularly in Queensland labor seats, that one nation could have
• 18:19
  S1: a good old crack at. What's your sense of what
• 18:22
  S1: the Albany. And obviously this Fire the Liar campaign is.
• 18:25
  S1: It's very incendiary, I would say very divisive and quite
• 18:28
  S1: nasty language, which I personally dislike and I hate to
• 18:32
  S1: see the return of because, you know, Julia Gillard was
• 18:35
  S1: always called a liar. And that just led to so
• 18:37
  S1: much vitriol, personal vitriol against her. I mean, what's the
• 18:40
  S1: sort of Albanese government response on a more sort of
• 18:43
  S1: structural level to this stuff?
• 18:45
  S2: Well, it might be inflammatory language to use the term liar,
• 18:48
  S2: as you say, but the government opened themselves up to
• 18:50
  S2: that when they broke such clear core promises from an election.
• 18:53
  S2: That was just a year ago. I thought there was
• 18:55
  S2: a really intriguing press conference by the Prime Minister on
• 18:58
  S2: Monday in his courtyard in Canberra. It was kind of
• 19:01
  S2: a more general conversation about where the country was at
• 19:04
  S2: his future agenda, the populist moment, how voters were feeling
• 19:09
  S2: and the disillusionment out there. And I thought it was
• 19:12
  S2: as important for what he didn't say as it was
• 19:14
  S2: for what he did say in previous weeks. When asked
• 19:16
  S2: about what nation he would often make, you know, points
• 19:19
  S2: of ridicule about the opposition, effectively saying Angus Taylor's job
• 19:23
  S2: is on the line. Making fun of the fact that
• 19:25
  S2: One Nation is cannibalising his traditional opponent. There really wasn't
• 19:29
  S2: any of that in this Monday press conference. It was
• 19:31
  S2: a more somber, serious Prime Minister making a pitch to
• 19:36
  S2: maintain faith in, you know, mainstream politics, he said. The
• 19:40
  S2: economy is despite having challenges, still fundamentally okay. We have
• 19:45
  S2: a stable legal system. We we are one of the most,
• 19:48
  S2: you know, successful democracies on earth. We still have a
• 19:52
  S2: lot going for us. He used Richard Scolyer, the Australian
• 19:56
  S2: of the year, who recently passed, to make this argument.
• 19:59
  S2: He said, Richard Scolyer is the best of us. Let's
• 20:01
  S2: stay united, not be divided. Effectively. The message was things
• 20:05
  S2: are hard, but stick with this government. We are fighting
• 20:08
  S2: for you still. And I thought that was intriguing because
• 20:10
  S2: the Prime Minister has a pattern of, um, you know,
• 20:13
  S2: he can be glib on issues until they really become
• 20:18
  S2: clear to him. His risks that affect his political fortunes.
• 20:22
  S2: And Labor's vote is now in the high 20s and
• 20:24
  S2: early 30s in most polls. That's very, very low. About
• 20:28
  S2: 5 or 6 percentage points of Labor's primary vote has
• 20:30
  S2: gone to one nation. That could keep growing because we
• 20:33
  S2: don't we we should just admit that we don't know
• 20:35
  S2: what one nation's ceiling is anymore. Yeah, we made we
• 20:38
  S2: made predictions previously and they've all been wrong. We've been
• 20:40
  S2: wrong so many times. And so he's now clearly in
• 20:43
  S2: his own mind, grappling with this moment in a more
• 20:45
  S2: serious way and thinking about how he counters the One
• 20:48
  S2: Nation rise to stop it eating into his base. Yeah,
• 20:52
  S2: but you're right, it is not nowhere near as existential.
• 20:54
  S2: It's not existential for Labour when it is for the coalition,
• 20:57
  S2: but it is still a genuine threat to Labour.
• 20:59
  S1: Yeah. And you can see, I mean, I think you
• 21:01
  S1: can see that cabinet ministers start to get a little
• 21:03
  S1: bit worried about it. Penny Wong was on the radio
• 21:06
  S1: on Thursday, and she was sort of saying, you know,
• 21:08
  S1: that she doesn't want it because she her face was
• 21:10
  S1: used in this fire. The liar. Um, website. Um, yeah.
• 21:14
  S1: So she was asked about that and she said she
• 21:15
  S1: just doesn't want to get into personal politics, but she
• 21:18
  S1: wants to stick to talking about policies. And, you know,
• 21:21
  S1: the fact that she said that One Nation doesn't have
• 21:23
  S1: any policy solutions to any of the problems they raise. So,
• 21:26
  S1: I mean, that seems to be the line that Labor's taking.
• 21:29
  S1: You know, let's get back to what they what actual
• 21:30
  S1: solutions they have. What policies do they have? What are they, um,
• 21:34
  S1: have to say on health policy? What do they have
• 21:36
  S1: to say on education policy, etc.? So they're bringing it
• 21:39
  S1: back to basics. We'll see if it works. It may
• 21:41
  S1: or may not. Inflation is still pretty thorny. People are
• 21:45
  S1: under a lot of pressure. You know, these things make
• 21:47
  S1: people feel that the system isn't working for them. And
• 21:50
  S1: it really, really upsets people, I think, and makes them anxious.
• 21:54
  S1: So yeah, it's tough times out there.
• 21:57
  S2: Mhm.
• 21:58
  S1: Anyway, thanks for talking. That was very interesting. And we
• 22:01
  S1: will of course be updating and checking in and talking
• 22:04
  S1: about it all again next week.
• 22:06
  S2: I realized that I don't know if I've told either
• 22:09
  S2: you or our producers this, but I'm about to go
• 22:12
  S2: to the World Cup so you won't see me for
• 22:13
  S2: a couple of weeks. I probably should have flagged this earlier.
• 22:18
  S1: Is this for business or pleasure, Paul Seagal?
• 22:22
  S2: Pure pleasure.
• 22:22
  S1: Okay. You're a soccer guy.
• 22:24
  S2: I'm a soccer guy. The country needs to get around
• 22:26
  S2: the Socceroos, but they've just. They're a bit of a
• 22:28
  S2: forgotten brand at.
• 22:29
  S1: The moment, where so much Matilda stands in our house
• 22:32
  S1: that we just don't. I don't know if we have
• 22:34
  S1: room in our hearts, but, um, every.
• 22:36
  S2: The Matildas are too good. They've just killed the blokes.
• 22:38
  S1: Yeah. I know it's a, it's a terrible thing. Anyway enjoy.
• 22:41
  S2: That. Great.
• 22:41
  S1: The Matildas enjoy Vancouver. It's in Vancouver right.
• 22:44
  S2: Yeah. Vancouver Seattle and then California.
• 22:48
  S1: Enjoy. All right. We'll miss you. We'll see you in
• 22:50
  S1: a few weeks.
• 22:50
  S2: See you in a couple of weeks.
• 22:56
  S1: You can read all of our political news on our
• 22:58
  S1: websites theage.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai
• 23:05
  S1: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is
• 23:09
  S1: Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy
• 23:12
  S1: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, follow Inside Politics and
• 23:17
  S1: leave us a review on Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley.
• 23:21
  S1: Thank you for listening.