Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #27: Shopify's "Leaked" CEO Memo, Tourist Founders, Senior Partners Leaving Established Firms
Transcript
- 0:00Have an AI fever, and at some point, the fever will break, and people will wake up and say,
- 0:03wait a minute.
- 0:04There are other things interesting other than just AI.
- 0:06I just hope none of these people who cynically lean into this theme find themselves having
- 0:10raised money to build a business they're not interested in building.
- 0:13It's the week of April 7.
- 0:15Welcome to the Learning Corner, a Precursor Ventures podcast.
- 0:22Welcome to the Learning Corner by Precursor.
- 0:24I'm Mia Farnam, and I'm joined by our GP and managing partner, Charles Hudson, where we will
- 0:29be talking through the articles and Goodreads that caught our team's attention over the past
- 0:34week.
- 0:35Topic number one, earlier this week, Shopify CEO, Tobias Letka, shared an internal memo
- 0:41publicly via X preempting what he assumed would be a leak.
- 0:44In the note, Toby laid out a clear vision for how Shopify must evolve in the age of AI,
- 0:50emphasizing that reflexive AI usage is now a baseline expectation across the entire company.
- 0:56He described Shopify as being in a red queen race, a nod to Alice in Wonderland, where one
- 1:02must run just to stay in place.
- 1:04So to maintain its edge, the company must not only move fast, but learn and adapt together
- 1:10with AI from his point of view as a central multiplier.
- 1:13He called out six key mandates in his memo, and a few were pretty simple.
- 1:17AI usage is a fundamental expectation.
- 1:19Priority prototypes need to incorporate AI.
- 1:22But there were a few that it was clear would make the run as a leaked memo on X, one of
- 1:27which being AI usage will now be part of performance and peer review processes.
- 1:31So how well can you prompt, contextualize, and apply these tools?
- 1:35And headcount requests must include justification for why AI can't get the job
- 1:40done.
- 1:40So I felt less surprised by the call to action for using AI across teams and companies, but I
- 1:45did feel like baking that into peer and performance reviews is a pretty bold approach.
- 1:50I think that a majority of Americans have yet to use AI in their normal day to day life, and
- 1:55I would actually go out on a limb to say most people who use it are claiming to use it more
- 1:59than they actually do.
- 2:01So it's hard to imagine that those same individuals are trying to bring AI learnings
- 2:05into their work if they barely know how to tinker around with it in their day to day life,
- 2:09but I guess that is the point.
- 2:11So I wanted to have your take on this, obviously.
- 2:14Yeah.
- 2:15I think in this day and age, any CEO driven or drafted internal comms is always for external.
- 2:22Shopify is too big of a company to have any expectation whatsoever that you could write
- 2:27something like that and it wouldn't leak.
- 2:28And the Shopify management team is smart.
- 2:31And I think for me, this is Klarna two point o.
- 2:33And I think part of being a public company CEO is you have one extra constituency you don't
- 2:39have as a private company, and that's your public market shareholders.
- 2:42And if I were sitting in the seat at Shopify, my biggest fear would be, well, what if
- 2:46everyone thinks that AI is some existential threat to my ecommerce infrastructure business?
- 2:52Putting aside tariffs and everything happening in global macro, what if people don't think
- 2:56we're taking AI seriously?
- 2:58What's one way to make people convinced that we're taking AI seriously is to write an
- 3:03internal memo and then publish it and tell people, this is what I've told my team we need
- 3:07to do.
- 3:08I am taking this seriously.
- 3:09I think what you said, Mia, is really true.
- 3:11Like, I've taken a fair amount of classes and projects on how to get more out of AI.
- 3:16When I was at Google, there used to be some study that's like the average search query was
- 3:19an impossibly short number of words.
- 3:21And I was like, oh, my conclusion is most people don't know how to use search engines to
- 3:25get the answers they want.
- 3:26They type in little bits and fragments and then hunt and peck.
- 3:29And when I look at the prompts that a lot of people I work on projects with, I'm like, that
- 3:33prompt is way too short.
- 3:35It's way too generic.
- 3:36You don't actually know how to talk to an LLM to get it to do what you want it to do.
- 3:41And I think you're right.
- 3:42I think there are people who use ChatGPT or use Claude or use DeepSeek or Perplexity.
- 3:48I'm not sure that they're even really scratching the surface.
- 3:51So when I read this memo, was like, great.
- 3:53What are you gonna do to make sure that everybody's had an equal fair opportunity to
- 3:57learn how AI works?
- 3:58Are you gonna help people feel and what's the expect what does it mean to use it all the
- 4:03time?
- 4:03How am I supposed to evaluate how good you are, Mia, at using AI in your data?
- 4:08Some of these things, I was like, these don't even sound practical described.
- 4:11There might be more to them behind the scenes.
- 4:13I took this as a message to the industry that Shopify is not gonna allow an AI based
- 4:19ecommerce infrastructure company to sneak up and steal their lunch and that they're on the
- 4:24job.
- 4:24But I I do think when these new technology waves come out, I think you have to give people
- 4:29the opportunity to learn how they work.
- 4:31Like, for example, if you're in finance at Shopify, should you be uploading Shopify
- 4:36internal data to ChatGPT to get results, to generate graphs, to do analytical work?
- 4:41If you're in HR at Shopify, should you be uploading site?
- 4:44I'm sure there's more to this behind the scenes, but I think we've, in two short years,
- 4:49have gone from a world where I think most companies said, we're gonna an AI department or
- 4:53we're gonna have some AI experts.
- 4:54We're gonna build things that other people are gonna use to now.
- 4:56It's like, nope.
- 4:57Everybody's gotta use it.
- 4:58So I think it's a really clear statement.
- 5:00I'll be curious to see a year from now when somebody says, I wonder what happened with that
- 5:04Shopify memo.
- 5:05Or in six months on Business Insider, interviews five Shopify employees about how
- 5:09they use it.
- 5:10I'm very curious to see, but I assume the message for that was startup companies who
- 5:14thought in their pitch, hey.
- 5:16We're gonna, like, out AI Shopify and public market investors who might be concerned that
- 5:20Shopify isn't taking AI sufficiently serious.
- 5:23Yeah.
- 5:24It's fascinating.
- 5:24I have friends who work at, like, those customer success roles within large public tech
- 5:29companies.
- 5:30Mhmm.
- 5:30And when I talk to them about kind of, like, the Klarna experience that's been floated
- 5:34around of like SDRs or any sort of AI that's driving those capabilities, they'll say like,
- 5:39we have that in the back house too.
- 5:41It's just really bad.
- 5:42So if I spend time using it, I wasted hours of my time.
- 5:46And to be fair, they're like, I'm not paid enough to wanna tinker around and
- 5:49contextualize.
- 5:50But it goes back to this circular kind of argument of, I guess that's the point from
- 5:54their perspective of, I wanna weed you out or show the public that I will weed you out Yeah.
- 5:59Of the company if you aren't.
- 6:00So my last question for this one is, what are your suggestions for those people of how to get
- 6:05started?
- 6:06I think the weird thing is, in some ways, the big tech industry, we we're sort of talking out
- 6:11of two sides of our mouth.
- 6:12We're like, people are using AI tools and they're producing all this marketing slop
- 6:17that's terrible.
- 6:18This is bad.
- 6:18But if you're a marketer who's not using AI, you're falling behind them.
- 6:22But if you just criticize the output as being slop, you wouldn't incentivize a marketer to
- 6:27produce slop.
- 6:29And I think we're like, oh, job applicants are, quote, unquote, cheating by using AI on their
- 6:34interviews, but we expect you to use Cursor or Replit when you get here.
- 6:37And I'm like, but what which is it?
- 6:39Is it like a superpower or is it cheating?
- 6:42And so I think we haven't really sorted out.
- 6:44And I think the conclusion I've reached is like, I don't want people using AI on me, but I
- 6:48wanna be able to use it on other people.
- 6:49It's like this weapon.
- 6:50It's I'm an employer.
- 6:51I don't want you using AI to cheat.
- 6:52I wanna know if you're actually good at your job.
- 6:53And then once you get here, wanna use as much AI as possible to make you as productive as
- 6:57possible.
- 6:58And as a consumer, I'm like, I don't want poorly drafted emails written by bad AI Yeah.
- 7:03Randomly in my inbox.
- 7:04But I also am able to use AI to make the emails I send to other people sound better, more
- 7:08succinct.
- 7:08We have to resolve this contradiction.
- 7:10And I think it's a contradiction because we're still sorting out what this technology means
- 7:15and what role it's gonna play in the way that we work long term.
- 7:17Well, I foresee a lot of large, lengthy white papers made from deep research about random
- 7:22things throughout the company.
- 7:24To get these surfaced, our next topic is a brief but really direct Substack post by
- 7:29Shriram Krishnan reflecting on the emergence of what he calls tourist founders in the latest AI
- 7:35wave.
- 7:35So the post calls out a real phenomenon that while this AI moment has created a lot of
- 7:39hungry visionary builders, it's possibly also drawn in folks who are more so chasing the
- 7:44hype.
- 7:44These are founders who may be treating fundraising as the goal rather than a milestone
- 7:48in building something valuable.
- 7:50He noted a trend that's something I felt deeply, seeing really lofty seed targets, so 8
- 7:56to 15,000,000 for first time teams, only to emerge maybe a couple months later, piecing
- 8:01together a 2 to $3,000,000 round.
- 8:03And while this dynamic isn't new, the pace and excitement around AI really is amplifying it.
- 8:08So I largely agree with everything that was said in his post.
- 8:11I've been trying to put towards a feeling that I've had for a while, which is just because you
- 8:16can build something with AI doesn't necessarily mean the world needs it today.
- 8:21Yeah.
- 8:21What I appreciated about his take is that he moves beyond the philosophical checkpoint and
- 8:26instead focuses on the practical reality that founders probably won't ask themselves.
- 8:30That question especially because they're seeing so much money deployed in this space at the
- 8:34pace that it is.
- 8:35So it becomes our job as VCs to vet challenge and raise the bar.
- 8:40But my question is, in this market, how hard will it be to hold investors to that standard?
- 8:45I think we sometimes forget as investors that we're generating signal by the decisions that
- 8:51we make, and it would be a crime for founders to not pay attention to VC behavior.
- 8:57And I think if I were starting a business today and I looked around, I'm like, gee, these VC
- 9:01people seem very animated about AI.
- 9:03It seems to be the place where all of the money and attention is.
- 9:07So if I wanna raise money and I wanna get attention, I should probably find a way to
- 9:11drape myself in the AI banner because that seems to be what VC is based on their action,
- 9:16their writing, the things they're funding, where I'm reading about the big rounds, that's
- 9:20where all the action is.
- 9:21And so why wouldn't I wanna be where the action is?
- 9:23Won't that make life easier?
- 9:24And I'm like, well, life is sometimes easier if you go to everyone else's, but the table stakes
- 9:29and the competition is so much higher.
- 9:30And I certainly have met people where I'm like, wait a minute.
- 9:33Weren't you building a crypto company a year ago when I saw you?
- 9:36Or weren't you building some Web three thing and like, nope.
- 9:39Now it's AI.
- 9:39And I think the job of a venture capitalist has always been to figure out who's really
- 9:44motivated, who has a real hunger and passion and insight to build something.
- 9:47And every wave theme cycle I've been a part of has had tourists.
- 9:52We had tourists in '99.
- 9:53We had tourists in mobile.
- 9:54We had tourists in crypto.
- 9:56I think this is, like, a part of our job is to try to suss out signal from noise and people
- 10:01who are serious versus people who just bought a .ai domain.
- 10:04And, you know, Mimi, I've been incredibly harsh on this thing.
- 10:07I think there's way more opportunism than Sriram even suggests.
- 10:11And Sriram and the Curti Jackson team are great.
- 10:13I hope he continues to write.
- 10:14I like his, like, pithy short posts.
- 10:15But I I think this has gotten harder because in other cycles, the main thing has been a big
- 10:21part of everything, but not everything, if that makes sense.
- 10:24So, like, during mobile, mobile was maybe 50% of mindshare for VCs who cared, but not a %.
- 10:29I think there's lot of firms where AI is a hundred percent of the mindshare still.
- 10:31So I think this is exacerbating this opportunism because I think founders have
- 10:35rightly concluded, if I don't have an AI story as part of my pitch, there are whole swaths of
- 10:40VCs who will say, either I don't get it or you're not interesting.
- 10:44So we've created this turbocharged dynamic where if you don't have an AI story, I think
- 10:48it's really hard to get VC attention.
- 10:50And I think there'll be a lot that will come out in the next two to three years after folks
- 10:54who continue to raise really fast rounds at prices that are a bit high for teams that maybe
- 10:59haven't figured out exactly what they're building.
- 11:02It will be hard to raise that subsequent round.
- 11:04And I think for a large majority of the companies, just because at that moment, we will
- 11:09have hopefully learned a little bit and maybe the bar has raised.
- 11:12Again, I empathize with the founders, and I get it why you would want to.
- 11:15If you see why see 80% of their companies in their last round was AI based.
- 11:19But to your point, I've seen a lot of great founders who maybe were building in spaces that
- 11:23are, like, non vogue, so health care, consumer.
- 11:26And they're like, oh, in my pitches, I just find myself.
- 11:29I have to have some sort of AI angle.
- 11:31And for that, I would say AI is truly table stakes.
- 11:34It's something that we've talked about a lot.
- 11:35But to change your entire pitch should kind of reach a threshold to raise upon it could be
- 11:40very shortsighted.
- 11:41So, again, not a new dynamic, but one that I feel like is really exacerbated in this moment.
- 11:46And I think it's worth remembering that, like, raising a lot of money at a high valuation just
- 11:51raises expectations.
- 11:52It raises what you have to achieve to be successful.
- 11:57It's hard.
- 11:57It's really, really hard.
- 11:58And so I think the people who are celebrating today, these big rounds, the day after the
- 12:02announcement, they gotta get back to work and build a company that's worth at least as much
- 12:06as they were valued at when they raised that last round.
- 12:08Right.
- 12:08Any suggestions, I guess, for those founders who are feeling like they have to pivot into a
- 12:13broader AI story or they're feeling like their story isn't taking?
- 12:16How can they kind of stick out in this space?
- 12:18And maybe it's like they just have to look a little bit harder for the right investor match,
- 12:21but how do you kind of differentiate yourself to make sure that you're not a tourist founder?
- 12:25I do think one advantage of this maybe over rotation on AI is that it causes everyone to
- 12:31say, is there slash should there be an AI angle to my business?
- 12:34And in some cases, I think the answer is like, yeah.
- 12:36Like, founders haven't thought about how to integrate that technology.
- 12:39Also, think if you decide the answer is no, I would hope that that thought process forces you
- 12:43to get clear on why the answer is no.
- 12:46And I think there's value in clarity.
- 12:48I think there's value in being able to say, we made a conscious decision not to go all in and
- 12:52not to center the company on AI, and I feel good about that.
- 12:55So I think at some point, all of these fevers break.
- 12:58And we have an AI fever, and at some point, the fever will break, and people will wake up and
- 13:01say, wait a minute.
- 13:02There are other things interesting other than just AI.
- 13:05I just hope none of these people who cynically lean into this theme find themselves having
- 13:08raised money to build a business they're not interested in building.
- 13:11Yeah.
- 13:11And also have surrounded themselves by investors who truly invested because they
- 13:15believed in them as opposed to wanting to jump in on the hype.
- 13:17Well, our last topic is a piece from CNBC by Ernst Ding Hsu spotlighting a growing trend
- 13:23across venture capital that over the past year, a significant number of high profile GPs and
- 13:28senior partners have quietly exited some of the most established VC firms.
- 13:32So while some of these moves are framed as retirements or success milestones to build
- 13:36their own firms, other departures are hinting at a broader structural shift industry.
- 13:41One of which is as large legacy venture funds increasingly resemble asset managers more than
- 13:47pure play venture firms, many senior partners find themselves wanting to return back to their
- 13:51early stage roots, especially as deploying true early stage capital becomes harder in the
- 13:56context of a fun bloat.
- 13:57On the other side, others are possibly being pushed out for perf reasons as we are facing
- 14:03the other side of the venture market after folks rush to deploy throughout the ZERP era.
- 14:07Charles, know you wrote a post about why investors could possibly be leaving VC firms a
- 14:11while back.
- 14:12So wanted to ask if you had anything else here to add.
- 14:15So I I I generally think most people who leave venture firms, it's usually about some mix of
- 14:21strategy drift at the place where they work, a desire to have something that better reflects
- 14:25them, and then, like, money.
- 14:26I think sometimes the money piece is overrated.
- 14:28Being a venture capitalist is a pretty lucrative job.
- 14:31Could you always make more money?
- 14:32Yeah.
- 14:32But I think oftentimes, usually, it's about something that's happening internal firm.
- 14:35And I think one of the biggest things that has surprised me, but not surprised me at the same
- 14:40time, is the ability of people who are at some of these large platform firms to leave and
- 14:47launch initial funds that are probably an order of magnitude larger than what your typical you
- 14:53know, if your typical emerging manager is gonna raise a 10 to $25,000,000 debut fund, these GPs
- 14:59that leave these more established, highly regarded funds, if you're, like, mid senior to
- 15:03senior, you're gonna raise a debut fund that's, let's call it, a hundred million ish per GP.
- 15:07That's really different experience.
- 15:09And, you know, raising a hundred million dollar fund to start, that gives you two, two and a
- 15:13half million dollars a year in management fees, which also means your experience as a first
- 15:16time fund manager is gonna be different.
- 15:17You could you could have two partners at a hundred million dollar fund.
- 15:19You could also have some help.
- 15:21You could have a controller.
- 15:22You could have people taking over some of the, like, day to day work.
- 15:25You could have an associate.
- 15:26You you could have a real firm.
- 15:27That's very different than an emerging manager who raises a $10,000,000 fund and can't even
- 15:31usually pay himself or herself.
- 15:32But I think it's very hard to figure out why people left in this business unless you have
- 15:37access to that firm.
- 15:38And I think we're gonna continue to see departures in this business because there are
- 15:43some people who've made a lot of money and are gonna say, this isn't as fun as it used to be.
- 15:47Wonder some people will say, I don't see how I'm gonna make any money with the bets that
- 15:51we've made.
- 15:51So what's the point?
- 15:52If you think about what happens at most big institutional firms, power gets concentrated at
- 15:57the top, and you get this upper out dynamic like investment banking or law.
- 16:01And we haven't had that in venture as much.
- 16:03I think we're moving in that direction.
- 16:05As these firms get bigger and they're hiring more people, they they won't all make partner
- 16:09or capital p partner, we'll say.
- 16:11They won't all make capital p partner.
- 16:12And even the ones who do may or may not have access to the management company or the real
- 16:18guts of the business.
- 16:19And I think we're gonna continue to see departures.
- 16:21And I think there are also some people paradoxically who would like to move on, but
- 16:25they have not yet solved for succession.
- 16:27And so they are probably working longer than they had planned on a firm that they created or
- 16:32managed.
- 16:32That's one of the cruel ironies of twenty to twenty to twenty twenty one.
- 16:36There's not a lot of great performance data that's gonna come out of that era.
- 16:40So if you're hoping to turn your firm over to people who made a lot of investing decisions in
- 16:46that window, you might have questions about, well, how much of their performance was the
- 16:50companies they chose, and how much of it was, like, the mania of that era, and what do I do
- 16:55with this data?
- 16:56And it might have just added three to four more years to your evaluation window for these
- 17:00people before you can determine whether you're ready to turn the firm over to them.
- 17:03I used to think within venture, you could probably make, I don't know, two, three pops to
- 17:08different funds, and then you kind of have to decide to stay or maybe venture isn't the place
- 17:13that you should be in.
- 17:14But do you think that's changing?
- 17:16Do you think people are gonna be staying at places longer to have a longer evaluation
- 17:20period, or do you think they're gonna have more hops in and out adventure roles?
- 17:24I think we're gonna see a dynamic that looks like more hops.
- 17:28I think people in venture have gotten savvier about career development, and I think people
- 17:32are gonna get to firms and say, I'm doing well here, but I feel blocked.
- 17:35There's somebody ahead of me, someone in front of me.
- 17:38There's no room in the partnership, but I can move over to this other firm where I see a role
- 17:42for myself and I see a path to growth.
- 17:44I think as long as we are creating new venture firms, that is gonna be the pressure release
- 17:48valve for a lot of these people.
- 17:49They're gonna say, hey.
- 17:50I worked at such and such firm for a while.
- 17:52I got about as far as I'm gonna get.
- 17:53I could either stay here for another six years and hope I break through, or I could jump over
- 17:58to this new firm, take a little bit more firm risk.
- 18:00But look.
- 18:01If you join one of these new spin out venture firms, I don't think you're taking that much
- 18:04firm risk.
- 18:04They're gonna raise enough money to give it a real go for one and probably two funds.
- 18:09So that gives you five to six years to work hard and show good results before you have to
- 18:14worry about the existential, well, what if this doesn't work out question.
- 18:17I do think at the most junior levels, you will see more people moving in and out of venture.
- 18:20People doing an associate stint, either deciding they don't like it or not finding a
- 18:23great way to move up and going back and working and operating, which is how venture used to
- 18:26work back in the late nineties.
- 18:28Like, you would hire these smart people.
- 18:29They'd work for you, they'd go work for a start up company, or they'd work for a public
- 18:33company.
- 18:33And then maybe they'd made their way back to venture, or maybe they wouldn't.
- 18:35My last question for this one is the article does call out what's the impact for portfolio
- 18:39companies, of which they see these senior partners come in and come out of their
- 18:42positions.
- 18:44And I think there was this resounding, it depends how much it impacts you.
- 18:47Either, yes, they've been very involved and it's painful to see them leave, or that person
- 18:51wasn't an operator at all, so it wasn't that helpful at all.
- 18:54So what are founders to make of all the movement?
- 18:56I asked this question of a friend of mine who's a growth stage investor.
- 19:00He's like, when we leave, it doesn't really matter that much.
- 19:03He's like, we're all hey.
- 19:04As he said, we're all the same at growth.
- 19:05I was like, no.
- 19:06You're not.
- 19:06You're you're all individual stuff like but I think what he meant was most growth investors
- 19:09care about the same things and have the same lens on business, and it tends to be relatively
- 19:13financial, operational, and KPI driven.
- 19:16I think it's less about the relationship with the management.
- 19:18What I've seen that tends to be most disruptive is when your series a lead leaves.
- 19:22As much as I think seed investors are institutional and we are, usually when you get
- 19:25a series a investor on board, it changes the way the company operates, and that's usually
- 19:30the first really significant infusion of capital into the business.
- 19:33And those people tend to care as much about the founder and his or her makeup as they do about,
- 19:38like, the business and the KPIs.
- 19:40And when those people leave a lot of institutional knowledge about the company and
- 19:44the founder walks out the door, and so I think that tends to be far more disruptive than when
- 19:49a late stage investor leaves.
- 19:51And I've got portfolio companies where we're on our third person for a given fund.
- 19:55And that third person is like, I'm here.
- 19:56I'm trying to do the best I can.
- 19:58I wasn't here in the boardroom for four years before trying to figure it out.
- 20:01Well, we are all out of time for today.
- 20:02Thank you, Charles, for joining in.
- 20:04Thank you for everyone who's stopping by.
- 20:05Please like and subscribe, and we will talk to you all next week.
- 20:08Thank you.
- 20:09Bye.