Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 25 - 4/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 25 - 4/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello and welcome to episode 25 of the All
• 0:23
  Systems Go Sports Bedding Podcast, powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
• 0:32
  What's going on everyone, happy
• 0:34
  Wednesday. We are halfway through our
• 0:36
  work week and we had a nice bounce back day
• 0:38
  yesterday. 3 -1 plus 1 .39 units. Maybe
• 0:43
  would have been better 4 -1 if the Kansas City Royals
• 0:45
  game wasn't rained out. We got a great day in MLB,
• 0:48
  the Orioles came through for the team, the Toronto
• 0:50
  Blue Jays. Doing it again, Gambler's fallacy
• 0:53
  said, yeah the mighty Yankees can't lose another
• 0:56
  one. Up at Rogers, Senna, but yes
• 0:58
  they did, the Jays got it done. Even
• 1:00
  though it was dicey late, bullpen tried to give it
• 1:02
  away but they didn't. Then the Atlanta Braves also
• 1:04
  came through for the team against Houston which was
• 1:07
  finishing off our 3 -0 in Major League Baseball. The
• 1:10
  only loser was in the NBA. NBA
• 1:13
  continues to be a very difficult sport to bet on
• 1:15
  if you ask me. But yesterday in the NBA, went
• 1:18
  with a Fade the Trendy Dog Play. Going
• 1:20
  with the Pelicans, Pelicans were a one point favorite
• 1:23
  even though the public was all over the Lakers. I
• 1:25
  tip my cap, the public got me there. Got
• 1:28
  anyone who went contrarian. Lakers
• 1:30
  were getting around 70 % of bets. Yeah
• 1:32
  take LeBron, got it done. I
• 1:34
  would mention watching this game, it was a great first
• 1:37
  quarter. What a roller coaster it was.
• 1:39
  Great first quarter, I want to
• 1:40
  say the Pelicans were up by 8 after the first
• 1:42
  quarter. Then they get down big, down by
• 1:44
  like 15 points. Then they claw back and tie it.
• 1:47
  One person that I am very
• 1:48
  frustrated with today is Zion Williamson. As
• 1:51
  great as Zion is. My god, the guy is a freaking
• 1:53
  nature. But Jesus man, are you always
• 1:56
  hurt like that game was tied 95 -95. Alvarado
• 2:00
  is making plays left and right. I
• 2:02
  also don't get their coach Willie Green. Why
• 2:03
  didn't you play Brandon Ingram at all down the
• 2:05
  stretch. Anyway, 95 -95 I'm like hey we
• 2:08
  might win this one. Pelicans
• 2:09
  at home, the smoothie king arena, one of the greatest
• 2:11
  names. I'll put that right up there
• 2:13
  with the Saddle Dome. With the Calgary Flames or
• 2:17
  whoever it is in the NHL. But
• 2:19
  what happened, Zion goes up for a layup and tweaks
• 2:22
  something. Today he found out he has a
• 2:24
  hamstring injury. We've already seen the next game
• 2:27
  here, big line move. Pelicans,
• 2:29
  Kings, that's going to be not tomorrow but on Friday.
• 2:32
  That was an opener of Pelicans
• 2:33
  laying 1 .5. Now it's flipped to Kings minus
• 2:35
  1 .5. But Zion getting hurt really
• 2:38
  killed us there. So couldn't get our NBA bet,
• 2:40
  but overall guys a winning night. Which
• 2:42
  you'll love to see 3 -1 plus 1 .39 units. Let's
• 2:45
  see if we can keep it rolling and make it a
• 2:47
  streak here. Try to get our second winning
• 2:49
  day in a row. For today I have a 5 -pack of
• 2:52
  sweats for you. I have 4 Major League
• 2:54
  Baseball games including a system match that I want
• 2:56
  to lean on a little bit. Which
• 2:57
  is our short favorite system match. Which
• 2:59
  should all give you the updated stats here. But
• 3:01
  it's been great to start the year great historically.
• 3:03
  So 4 bets in Major League
• 3:04
  Baseball including a dog. Let's
• 3:06
  see if a dog can bark for us. And
• 3:08
  then we do have another NBA night of playing double
• 3:10
  headers here. With the heat and the sixers,
• 3:13
  the hawks and the bulls. I'm
• 3:13
  going to focus on a player prop. With
• 3:16
  the help of Rhythm who powers this podcast. A
• 3:19
  player that is a pretty good edge. His
• 3:21
  point total is 16 .5. Rhythm
• 3:23
  is projecting him almost 21 points. So
• 3:25
  I'll tell you who that is on the second half of the
• 3:27
  pod here for today. So with that being said let's
• 3:30
  dive right into some Major League Baseball. We'll
• 3:32
  save the NBA for the second half of the pod.
• 3:34
  But I want to start talking
• 3:35
  about a few games here that caught my eye. First
• 3:37
  on the board is 3 .37pm Eastern Times St. Louis
• 3:41
  Cardinals and the Oakland Athletics. Now
• 3:44
  this one jumped out to me for a couple reasons. On
• 3:45
  the one hand fully admit. This
• 3:48
  line has been ticking up pretty big. At
• 3:52
  one point it was as high as St. Louis
• 3:54
  minus 150. Minus 140, minus 150. I
• 3:57
  saw an opener of Cardinals even like minus 155. The
• 4:01
  line has gotten all the way down to St. Louis
• 4:02
  minus 125. But now those minus 125s are
• 4:06
  starting to creep back down to minus 130. So
• 4:08
  I'm wondering and really the decision I've made is,
• 4:10
  hey St. Louis may not be a sharp bet
• 4:13
  but it's a value play. The line has moved so much to
• 4:15
  now buying low in this spot getting a better
• 4:18
  number going with St. Louis.
• 4:19
  So I'm going to go with the Cardinals here guys.
• 4:21
  Now if you look at the
• 4:21
  pitching matchup banking on Stephen Matz to pitch well
• 4:23
  today. Remember he was great with the Matz
• 4:25
  a while ago. Signed a big deal with St. Louis.
• 4:27
  He's been hurt for quite a while. But
• 4:29
  if you look at the Stephen Matz with the Cardinals 1
• 4:32
  -0 1 .80 ERA to start the year. Now
• 4:35
  Blackburn's been good for Oakland. He's
• 4:37
  1 -0 as well. 0 .00 ERA. So
• 4:40
  good pitching match up here. But
• 4:42
  I'm going to lean on a couple things going with
• 4:44
  St. Louis. One is the bats. St.
• 4:46
  Louis is hitting 2 -28. Doesn't
• 4:48
  sound great. If you have Oakland only
• 4:49
  hitting 2 -0 -3. The St. Louis
• 4:51
  Cardinals have scored 67 runs versus only 50 for
• 4:54
  Oakland. They also have some correlative
• 4:56
  betting value. Favorite low total. So
• 4:58
  St. Louis is around a minus 130
• 5:00
  favorite here. With a total of 8. So
• 5:02
  if your amount of expected runs scored more likely to
• 5:04
  come from quote unquote that better team. Even
• 5:07
  though the Cardinals aren't really a sharp bet. Again
• 5:09
  they were minus 155 all the way down to minus 125.
• 5:12
  Now they're creeping back up.
• 5:13
  Telling me late movement says hey
• 5:14
  it's worthy of now buying low on St. Louis.
• 5:17
  But really have a ton of system matches on St.
• 5:19
  Louis. So one would be road
• 5:21
  favorites. I've been talking about this for
• 5:23
  quite a bit on the pod. But
• 5:24
  road favorites 56 and 29. 66 % with a ROI of 15%.
• 5:30
  So it's been a really good
• 5:32
  angle here. Remember we had a couple winners
• 5:33
  yesterday with or at least one winner with the Braves.
• 5:36
  Which would be that road favorite
• 5:37
  system match. But then if you dig a little
• 5:39
  deeper interleague favorites off a win. So
• 5:42
  interleague play you're coming off a win. Very
• 5:44
  simple system but interleague you typically
• 5:46
  see the cream rise to the top. The
• 5:48
  better teams you know typically win interleague
• 5:50
  play. With lack of familiarity
• 5:52
  benefiting that superior team. But
• 5:53
  interleague faves with momentum off a win. They're
• 5:56
  19 and 12 this year 61%. Since
• 5:59
  the start of last year they're right at their
• 6:00
  historical norm. 242 and 148 62%. You
• 6:05
  also look at the other angle that I mentioned here
• 6:07
  to start the pod. But short favorites minus 130
• 6:10
  or less. This has been what I call the
• 6:11
  sweet spot. In terms of backing short
• 6:13
  favorites. If you're short fave minus 130
• 6:15
  or less. Which is right where St. Louis
• 6:17
  is now. Those teams are 62 and 45 58 %
• 6:21
  with a 7 % ROI. So we got a lot of system
• 6:24
  matches here on St. Louis. I checked the lineup. Got
• 6:27
  everyone in here. Goldschmidt,
• 6:28
  Aronato, even their catcher Herrera. I
• 6:30
  feel like every time I either bet on or against
• 6:32
  St. Louis. The guy that's a home run.
• 6:34
  Not quite a sharp play but a
• 6:36
  value play. That's bottomed out and starting
• 6:38
  to creep back up. If you give me cardinals a
• 6:40
  minus 130 with some buyback. With
• 6:42
  a good pitcher on the bump. Better
• 6:43
  bats. Coral to betting value and bunch
• 6:46
  of great betting systems. That's
• 6:47
  a play that I gotta make here. I'm
• 6:48
  taking a shot on the St. Louis
• 6:50
  cardinals. A buy low value play. Not
• 6:52
  a sharp bet. But I'm on cardinals here at
• 6:54
  minus 130. Keep on cruising. Next
• 6:57
  one up. Chicago Cubs and Arizona
• 7:00
  Diamondbacks. Did anyone take yesterday the
• 7:02
  over? I didn't play it. It
• 7:04
  was an over of 9 1 half up to 10. It
• 7:06
  was a 12 to 11 game. Arizona
• 7:07
  Cardinals. I got Seattle football on the
• 7:10
  mind. With the NFL draft coming up.
• 7:12
  The Arizona Diamondbacks winning
• 7:14
  11 to 12 to 11. But now the rematch today. 340
• 7:18
  PM Eastern time. We have on the bump for the
• 7:22
  Cubs. Jordan Wicks. 0 -2. 5 .68 ERA.
• 7:26
  He'll be opposed by Brandon Fodd.
• 7:28
  Who's 1 -0 with a 6 .48 ERA. I
• 7:30
  swear every time I bet on Arizona. Or
• 7:33
  I bet on Brandon Fodd. I lose. So
• 7:35
  I'm already worried. I know probably you guys too
• 7:37
  have specific players or pitchers. Who
• 7:39
  feel like they never come through for you. Well
• 7:41
  today's the day Brandon Fodd comes through for us.
• 7:43
  And I know my buddy Darush
• 7:44
  knows what I'm talking about. But
• 7:47
  anyway. Little bit of line movement toward
• 7:48
  Arizona. Arizona opened as low as minus 115
• 7:51
  minus 120. Arizona is now up to minus 125
• 7:54
  minus 130. So we got some pretty good
• 7:56
  steam in favor of Arizona. Now
• 7:58
  they're only getting around 60 % of bets. So
• 8:01
  it kind of tells us that. Hey
• 8:02
  you know 5 -10 cents a steam. 61%. Doesn't
• 8:06
  seem like that lopsided of a bet. So
• 8:08
  it tells me it's the bigger sharper wagers here
• 8:10
  that are on Arizona. Now if you look at Arizona. In
• 8:13
  terms of that system play that I just mentioned. The
• 8:15
  short favorites minus 130 or less. Another
• 8:17
  system match. That's been the sweet spot. 62
• 8:20
  and 45. 58%. 7 % ROI. I'm going to lean on the bats
• 8:24
  of Arizona. They're hitting 255 versus 247 for
• 8:28
  the Cubbies. And also better team ERA. 406
• 8:30
  versus 4 .39. And then we would have a
• 8:33
  classic non -division favorite system match.
• 8:36
  Because we currently have Arizona
• 8:38
  non -division fave at home. And
• 8:40
  that non -division favorite again lack of familiarity
• 8:42
  benefiting quote unquote the better team. So
• 8:44
  I am backing in this spot the snakes. At
• 8:47
  a good steam move minus 115 up to around minus 125
• 8:50
  minus 130. I got Arizona at minus 125.
• 8:54
  Keep on cruising. Another
• 8:55
  one for you. We want the Seattle Mariners.
• 8:58
  All with these sweet spot short
• 8:59
  favorites minus 130 or less. This
• 9:01
  is kind of right on the edge here. But
• 9:02
  since the Seattle for the matchup here. This
• 9:06
  is the third game of three game series. We
• 9:08
  have seen Seattle win both games so far. 9 to 3
• 9:11
  opener winner 3 to 1 second game they won as
• 9:14
  well. Let's see if they can sweep
• 9:16
  because I'm on the Seattle Mariners here tonight. Now
• 9:19
  a couple of things to note for this game. First
• 9:21
  off pitching matchup. We have Andrew Abbott lefty
• 9:24
  going for the Cincinnati Reds. He's
• 9:26
  one and one 2 .6 0 ERA but I want to back Bryce
• 9:29
  Miller. This kid has been fantastic.
• 9:31
  Bryce Miller is 2 -1 with a 1
• 9:33
  .96 ERA. And if you look at what Bryce
• 9:36
  Miller has done in his first couple starts here.
• 9:39
  His first game wasn't great.
• 9:41
  Five innings four runs against
• 9:42
  the Red Sox but then against Milwaukee. Seven
• 9:44
  innings no runs against the Cubs. 6 .1 innings no runs.
• 9:48
  He actually just played Chicago
• 9:50
  here recently. So he's had some familiarity
• 9:52
  with obviously you know interlea play here
• 9:54
  benefiting the better team. But
• 9:56
  I want to back Bryce Miller in the spot. And
• 9:59
  we have some movement towards Seattle. Seattle
• 10:01
  opened as low as minus 120. Again
• 10:04
  Seattle is now up to around minus 130. So
• 10:07
  kind of same steam basically if you if you
• 10:09
  like Arizona you like Seattle. If
• 10:10
  you like Seattle you like Arizona basically home short
• 10:13
  home favorites with 10 510 cents of steam behind them.
• 10:17
  But in addition to the Seattle
• 10:21
  play here a couple things I like better pitching
• 10:24
  staff. Seattle has a team ERA of 3 .78
• 10:27
  vs 4 .40. If you look in the last 10
• 10:30
  games really Seattle has been the better pitching
• 10:32
  staff. And then you also have Seattle
• 10:34
  favorite low total. So this total was eight down
• 10:37
  to seven and a half even some shops are seven and a
• 10:39
  half under minus 115. So kind of the correlative
• 10:43
  betting value of the line going toward the favorite
• 10:45
  and toward the under. That's
• 10:46
  kind of a good combination there because the few
• 10:48
  amount of expected runs scored again coming from
• 10:50
  quote unquote the better team. It's
• 10:52
  also kind of fishy. Whenever
• 10:53
  I say better team a lot of people are like oh one
• 10:55
  lost record. No better team based on who's
• 10:58
  favored that night. And it's also a little fishy
• 11:00
  you know since he's nine and eight Seattle's eight
• 11:02
  and 10. Why is the team below 500
• 11:04
  favored over the team above 500. So
• 11:07
  again you got to take each game individually but tells
• 11:09
  me that again the betting market the power ratings in
• 11:11
  the match up and where the sharps are leaning are on
• 11:14
  Seattle here with that minus 120 up to minus 100.
• 11:17
  They're also match assistant we
• 11:19
  mentioned interleague favorite off a win 19 and
• 11:22
  12 this year 61 % and then a 62 % since the start of
• 11:26
  last season. So you have good steam. We
• 11:28
  have a good guy on the bump here with Bryce Miller
• 11:30
  interleague fave off win sweet spot fave better
• 11:33
  pitching staff fave low total. I'm
• 11:35
  going with the M. So let's go Mariners shop
• 11:37
  around. I got the Mariners at minus
• 11:39
  130. Then last play of the night in
• 11:41
  MLB. I'm going to go with the dog.
• 11:43
  Let's see if we can get a dog
• 11:45
  to bark. And yes I'm a Red Sox fan but
• 11:48
  I'm betting against the Red Sox tonight. Give
• 11:50
  me the Guardians. I'm taking plus money with the
• 11:53
  Guardians here. A couple things to note about
• 11:56
  this game. So this is your late game 7
• 11:57
  10 p .m. It's actually the we don't have
• 11:59
  any eight no nine 10 o 'clock games is the last
• 12:01
  one. There's a lot of day games today.
• 12:03
  But we've seen thus far. As
• 12:06
  a four game series Cleveland's on the first
• 12:08
  two. So Cleveland won the marathon
• 12:09
  Monday Monday game 6 nothing. And
• 12:12
  they came back again yesterday and extras and
• 12:14
  one 10 to 7. How ironic is it? Kenley
• 12:16
  Jansen. In case you haven't you didn't
• 12:18
  notice he complained about the baseballs not being
• 12:20
  rubbed up enough. Next game he blows a save. So
• 12:22
  how funny is that anyway. Not
• 12:25
  funny. I guess if he better bet
• 12:26
  threat socks last night I didn't have action on
• 12:28
  either side. So just kind of funny to me
• 12:30
  as a fan. But I like the angle here
• 12:32
  toward Cleveland. Cleveland is kind of a blueprint
• 12:34
  play for me. A contrarian dog with a high
• 12:37
  total and reverse line move. So
• 12:38
  what do I mean by that? Well
• 12:40
  first let's mention the pitching matchup. Ben
• 12:42
  Lively is going for Cleveland. Ben
• 12:45
  Lively is making his 2024 debut in 2023. He
• 12:49
  was four and seven with a 5 .38 era red socks are
• 12:52
  going with ready Tanner. How
• 12:54
  he's been good 2 and 1 2 .04 era. What
• 12:57
  I like about Cleveland is this good sharp steam move
• 13:00
  is about a 50 50 bet split. I
• 13:02
  called it RLM. I think it's technically 53 %
• 13:04
  of bets at DraftKings on Boston. But
• 13:07
  down the middle are slightly Boston betting yet
• 13:09
  the red sox open minus 140. They're
• 13:11
  down to minus 130. I see some shops even down
• 13:14
  to like minus 125. So whether it's a slight
• 13:17
  public player right down the middle, theoretically 50
• 13:20
  50 line shouldn't move at all. Yet
• 13:21
  this line is tanking away from Boston and toward
• 13:25
  Cleveland. So tells me the bigger sharper
• 13:26
  wagers here on Cleveland. Cleveland
• 13:28
  going from around plus 125 plus 120. Now
• 13:32
  down to around plus 110. So
• 13:34
  lines going to Cleveland as a short row dog. Now
• 13:38
  the Guardians would have that corral to betting
• 13:39
  value we talked about eight and a half total or nine.
• 13:42
  Actually, there was some under money.
• 13:44
  It was nine got hit to the
• 13:45
  under. It's now down to eight and a
• 13:46
  half. But with a dog high total, you
• 13:49
  know, good thing here. We just mentioned a second ago
• 13:51
  Seattle is a favorite low total. Seattle's
• 13:53
  minus 130 total seven and a half. Fear
• 13:56
  amount of expected runs scored more likely to come
• 13:58
  from the better team. Flip it. The
• 13:59
  other way Cleveland as a plus 110 dog with a total
• 14:02
  of eight and a half or nine. That's
• 14:04
  a good thing for a dog because the more expected
• 14:06
  run scored more variance, more upset opportunities. If
• 14:10
  you dig a little deeper here, a lot of angles to
• 14:12
  like Cleveland. The Guardians are nine and two
• 14:14
  on the road. The Red Sox are only two and
• 14:16
  six at home. Cleveland is plus 38 and run
• 14:19
  differential. Boston is only plus three and the
• 14:21
  Red Sox, I believe they're going to be without Rafael
• 14:24
  Devers. He heard his knee yesterday.
• 14:27
  Tyler O 'Neill. I
• 14:28
  haven't seen the lineup come out yet. I
• 14:29
  don't know if O 'Neill is going to play. He
• 14:31
  ironically ran into Devers the day before. So
• 14:34
  Red Sox are dropping like flies and they're a little
• 14:36
  league team who boots the ball around. So
• 14:38
  I'm going to go Cleveland here and take the plus
• 14:40
  money with the Guardians again. Good
• 14:43
  sharp quasi reverse line move steam move, but a 50
• 14:46
  50 line move in their favor. Lance
• 14:48
  going to Cleveland, even though tickets are
• 14:49
  relatively split. Give me a dog high total
• 14:51
  Cleveland Guardians play shop around. I
• 14:54
  got Cleveland a little bit earlier today around plus
• 14:56
  115. Now you're looking at Cleveland
• 14:58
  around a plus 110. So Cleveland, St. Louis
• 15:02
  Cardinals, Arizona Snakes and the Seattle Mariners.
• 15:05
  That's what I'm rocking with today
• 15:06
  on a big Wednesday. Now over to the NBA because
• 15:11
  again, the NBA continues to be a very difficult market
• 15:14
  to beat. I must admit, I'm actually
• 15:16
  kicking myself for not taking the point to the
• 15:18
  Kings because I went into yesterday saying, you know,
• 15:20
  we have two contrarian plays, Pelicans and the
• 15:22
  Kings. And I picked the wrong
• 15:23
  contrarian play because the Kings got it done there,
• 15:26
  even though that line did move a little bit toward
• 15:28
  the Warriors. I think Warriors are like
• 15:29
  minus one up to minus three, but they were also
• 15:33
  getting like 70 % of bets. So
• 15:34
  you could have maybe bought low on the Kings. Anyway,
• 15:36
  if you play the Kings where you played either
• 15:37
  under, you're happy about the results last night. If
• 15:40
  you're like me and took the Pelicans, you're bitter
• 15:42
  because you're tied with like three minutes left and
• 15:45
  Zion gets hurt and screws us. Anyway,
• 15:46
  let's go to one game in particular tonight, the
• 15:50
  Hawks and the Bulls. I'm going to focus on this one
• 15:52
  guys, a couple things going on right here. I
• 15:54
  was tempted a little bit by the Hawks because if
• 15:56
  you look at the betting splits currently, you do
• 16:00
  have a majority of bets here on Chicago Bulls. The
• 16:04
  Bulls are getting around 60 % of bets, but Bulls pretty
• 16:06
  much been staying minus three. There
• 16:08
  were some three and a half down to three, threes that
• 16:10
  have stayed at three. I was intrigued a little bit
• 16:13
  by the Hawks and the points. I
• 16:14
  was also looking at the total, you know, really the
• 16:17
  total got hammered to the over. It
• 16:19
  was 218, it's all the way up to 222. Some
• 16:22
  of us even got to 223, so it was clear you had some
• 16:25
  over money come in. But then I'm thinking, do we
• 16:27
  buy low and take the under? You
• 16:29
  know, with both those unders hitting yesterday,
• 16:32
  I'm annoyed I kind of put too much more, put enough
• 16:35
  stock into this, but play in game unders, since the
• 16:38
  play in game started, it's now 15 and five to the
• 16:40
  under, 75%. You've seen a lot of unders here
• 16:43
  come through in these playing games. But
• 16:46
  I also respect kind of the movement that brought the
• 16:48
  line up. So I was leaning Hawks, I was
• 16:50
  leaning maybe buying low going under, and I said,
• 16:53
  you know what? I don't have a great edge
• 16:54
  either way. So what I'm going to do is
• 16:56
  go look at rhythm and see what rhythms got. Is
• 16:58
  there a player prop providing some value here
• 17:02
  in the betting market as well as for rhythm? And
• 17:04
  guess what? There is. So
• 17:06
  I stumbled upon a player prop, a guy who hopefully
• 17:09
  will light it up here tonight, Bogdan Bogdanovich.
• 17:14
  Not the Bogdanovich from the
• 17:15
  Knicks, the Bogdanovich from the Hawks. So
• 17:17
  I'm going through the player props here. I'm
• 17:19
  looking at, hey, is there something with Kobe White?
• 17:22
  You know, is there a Dejante
• 17:23
  Murray? Is there a Caruso? There's
• 17:26
  a good angle on Io to Sumu, but he's banged up
• 17:29
  and questionable. So there's one guy who's
• 17:30
  healthy, who's lit it up and has a great rhythm
• 17:33
  projection, and it's Bogdanovich. So
• 17:35
  I'm going to go toward Bogdan Bogdanovich, or
• 17:38
  Bogdan Bogdanovich, his over points. So
• 17:42
  Bogdanovich, over 16 and a half points. Can
• 17:45
  Bogdanovich score 17 points or more for us? Well,
• 17:48
  first off, the betting market is really juiced up
• 17:50
  over. So Bogdanovich, over 16 and a
• 17:53
  half points is minus 140. It
• 17:55
  tells us there's a lot of liability on that over. If
• 17:57
  you look at Bogdanovich's box scores, on the year,
• 17:59
  he's averaged 16 .9 points. So
• 18:01
  if he just does what he's averaged, you know, 17
• 18:03
  points, we cash this over. But
• 18:06
  he's really hit this over quite a bit here recently.
• 18:08
  He's four and one to the over
• 18:10
  16 and a half points his last five. He's
• 18:12
  eight and two, his last 10 to the over. He's
• 18:15
  averaging around 32 minutes per game in the month of
• 18:18
  April. So he's a starter getting a
• 18:19
  lot of minutes, which is important. He's
• 18:21
  one of their top three point shooters as well. And
• 18:23
  then also you look at the Hawks Bulls total, it's on
• 18:26
  the rise, as we mentioned, 218 up to 222, even 223.
• 18:30
  So with more expected points
• 18:31
  scored, like compare this game to the heat sixers
• 18:34
  game, that total is 208. And
• 18:36
  it feels like how does it not go over? But
• 18:37
  again, these are two of the slower teams. And
• 18:39
  we've actually seen a total drop at some shops, like
• 18:42
  two, eight and a half down to two, eight. So
• 18:44
  anyway, if you're targeting a guy to go over, you
• 18:47
  know, offensively, I want to go to the game that
• 18:49
  has the higher projected points scored, which would
• 18:50
  be Hawks Bulls. But then we go to rhythm.
• 18:53
  Here's where it gets good, which,
• 18:55
  by the way, make sure you go download the rhythm app
• 18:57
  by clicking the custom link at the top of my Twitter
• 18:59
  page at Josh underscore insights. But
• 19:02
  according to rhythm, who, by the way, is the number
• 19:06
  one and ultimate AI sports betting app for data
• 19:09
  backpicks and props, they are projecting bogged on
• 19:12
  Bogdanovich to score 20 .7 points tonight. So
• 19:16
  basically 21 points. So we're getting over 16 and
• 19:18
  a half. He's averaging or expected to
• 19:20
  score 20 21. That's about a four or five point
• 19:24
  edge there. Rhythm basically kind of, you
• 19:27
  know, kind of, I guess, projects these numbers and
• 19:29
  then does a DTM difference to market. That's
• 19:32
  a 23 % difference to market. It's
• 19:34
  a 72 % win percentage. And again, last 10, he's gone
• 19:38
  over this one in eight of 10 games. So
• 19:42
  with a total on the rise with Bogdanovich getting a
• 19:45
  lot of minutes and hopefully we'll get his box
• 19:48
  score. These are his games, his last 12
• 19:51
  games, 18 points, 17, 19, 11. That
• 19:55
  was bad 18, 17, 10, not great. But
• 19:58
  then 20, 38, 24. I mean, he's gone over this
• 20:01
  number quite a bit here recently. So
• 20:03
  I'm going to bank on hopefully Bogdanovich to do
• 20:05
  it again with the with the assist from rhythm, I
• 20:09
  should say. So give me a prop here in
• 20:11
  the NBA. I'm going Bo Bogdanovich, the
• 20:15
  shooting guard for the Hawks over. 16 and a half
• 20:19
  points at minus 140. So that about does it for
• 20:23
  today's episode of the All Systems Go Pod episode 25.
• 20:26
  Can you believe it? We've
• 20:27
  already gone up to 25 episodes. But
• 20:30
  a couple of things here, guys, always to finish up
• 20:32
  the pod and a little bit of housekeeping and a
• 20:34
  couple of requests that I have of you. First
• 20:36
  request is, can you help me to grow and promote
• 20:39
  this podcast? Because I am just honored to host
• 20:42
  this pod, but really I look at it as, hey, we're
• 20:44
  sitting around a virtual bar talking sharp contrarian
• 20:47
  bets, trying to make smart bets with a data driven
• 20:50
  approach, betting with our head and not our heart.
• 20:52
  But I need your help to grow
• 20:53
  the pod. So if you can do me one
• 20:55
  favor, very easy thing to do if you're listening
• 20:57
  here. You probably enjoy the model,
• 20:59
  trust the model. And this is kind of some maybe
• 21:01
  something you look forward to listening to each day,
• 21:04
  whether you play everything I say or fade or do
• 21:06
  whatever you just like to sit back and maybe pick
• 21:08
  off one bet. I hear there that you might
• 21:10
  play. That is totally cool either way.
• 21:12
  Just so you know, I bet every
• 21:14
  game that I mentioned, I would not mention it if I
• 21:16
  didn't have my own skin in the game. But
• 21:18
  can you help me grow this pod by number one, giving
• 21:20
  this pod a five star review on Spotify or
• 21:24
  iTunes, give it those five stars. It
• 21:26
  would mean a lot to me to help grow the pod to
• 21:28
  create some buzz and to rise up the rankings. And
• 21:31
  then of course, if you want to give us a follow
• 21:34
  on Twitter at Josh underscore insights, that's
• 21:36
  my personal account. And also the all systems go
• 21:39
  podcast at underscore ASG underscore podcast. That'll
• 21:42
  mean a lot as well. Secondly,
• 21:44
  if you want to support the team, if you enjoy this
• 21:46
  style of betting, betting with your head, not your
• 21:49
  heart trying to read the market like Wall Street
• 21:50
  traders read the stock market. Then
• 21:53
  I have something that you can do to help you kind
• 21:55
  of guide you on the right path, I should say, in
• 21:58
  terms of becoming a better and sharper data driven
• 22:00
  better. You can do one thing, you can
• 22:02
  go buy my book, make me happy, make my day, but
• 22:05
  more importantly, learn more about sports betting or
• 22:07
  gift the book to a friend who needs to stop parlaying
• 22:10
  every single bet. But if you just go to Amazon
• 22:12
  .com and type in the the everything guide to sports
• 22:16
  betting, that's my baby. It's
• 22:18
  got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines
• 22:19
  are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 22:21
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go
• 22:23
  contrarian, how to place a better person or online,
• 22:26
  how to shop for the best line, all included in the
• 22:28
  everything guide to sports betting. If
• 22:30
  you want to pick that up, it would make my day. And
• 22:32
  when I see you at the book, I'll sign it for you
• 22:33
  and I'll buy you a beer. As
• 22:35
  we say in Boston, there's no there's no odds in
• 22:37
  Boston, so just buy you a beer. But
• 22:39
  anyway, that would really mean a lot to me. And
• 22:41
  if you want to be a superhero, give it five
• 22:43
  stars and a good positive review on Amazon, which
• 22:46
  also goes a long way to rising up the ranks with
• 22:49
  the Illuminati Jeff Bezos rankings. That
• 22:52
  about does it everyone other podcast here in the
• 22:54
  books. Now I mentioned rhythm, but I
• 22:56
  want to mention rhythm one last time. Hopefully
• 22:58
  rhythm will help us cash Bogdanovich over 16 and a
• 23:01
  half points tonight. But rhythm, who is kind enough
• 23:03
  to power this podcast and does a great job with
• 23:06
  their AI backed sports betting data backpicks and
• 23:09
  props. They're founded in 2022 by a team
• 23:12
  of mathematical quants, data scientists, machine learning
• 23:15
  engineers, and they are the place for the ultimate
• 23:19
  predictive sports betting platform. And
• 23:21
  I want to give you guys the opportunity to test it
• 23:23
  out to see if you like it. It's
• 23:24
  very simple. It's going to cost you nothing.
• 23:26
  All you got to do is sign up
• 23:27
  for a free seven day trial of rhythm. That's
• 23:30
  R I T H M M. It's not R Y T H M. It's
• 23:34
  R I T H M M. But you got to sign up in a
• 23:36
  specific way. You can either if you're
• 23:38
  listening on Spotify, click the bio or the description
• 23:40
  of this episode. There should be a link right
• 23:42
  there in the in the bio or just go to my Twitter
• 23:45
  page at Josh underscore insights. Go
• 23:48
  to the very top. There's going to be a pinned tweet
• 23:50
  at the very top of my page. There's
• 23:51
  going to be a tweet there with a custom link. Click
• 23:54
  that custom link and then you can start making sharp
• 23:57
  data driven data back picks and props on your own. So
• 24:01
  give it a shot. I think you're going to like
• 24:02
  it. That about does it everyone.
• 24:04
  Another pod here in the books
• 24:05
  reminder, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
• 24:09
  City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
• 24:11
  Hampshire, Fox Woods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 24:13
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
• 24:15
  Park, Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of
• 24:18
  the woods. Or of course out in the
• 24:19
  desert where the true grinders get down where
• 24:21
  Billy Walters sends his number runners with the
• 24:23
  lowest juice possible is found at the South Point
• 24:25
  or Swetton Sharp. Conturain plays at Circa getting a
• 24:28
  victory burger jumping in the pool when your Orioles
• 24:30
  come through for you. Wherever
• 24:32
  it may be, you're going to walk up to me. Are
• 24:33
  you going to show me winning tickets from
• 24:35
  yesterday? Good bounce back day. Show
• 24:36
  me a Braves ticket. Show me a Jays ticket. Show
• 24:39
  me an Orioles ticket. Whatever
• 24:40
  you do, don't show me that Pelicans ticket. Zion
• 24:42
  really? How does a guy get hurt so
• 24:45
  often? I'll never understand it. Either
• 24:47
  way guys, winning night, I'll take it every single
• 24:49
  time. So my parting words as always,
• 24:51
  stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public,
• 24:53
  place yourself on the side of the house. Always
• 24:55
  be with the smart money, never against it. Well,
• 24:57
  smart money when every time? Of
• 24:58
  course not. But always remember we are
• 24:59
  playing a long game. And if we can consistently get
• 25:02
  down on games that fit our model, bypass the ones that
• 25:04
  don't, find games that are simultaneously against the
• 25:07
  public with the house, with the pros. If
• 25:10
  we can flat, bet, avoid parlays, definitely avoid
• 25:12
  like the plague. Same game parlays. You
• 25:15
  wonder why they tout them to you so often. So
• 25:17
  profusely, it's because the books make a killing off
• 25:20
  them, because they're hard to win. So
• 25:21
  make sure you flat bet. But
• 25:22
  if we can do that and get some closing line value,
• 25:24
  we're going to be successful sports bidders
• 25:26
  long term. So enjoy the sweats everyone.
• 25:28
  Have a great Wednesday. We'll
• 25:29
  be back at it tomorrow for a big thirsty Thursday for
• 25:33
  episode 26 of the All Systems Go Sports Bedding
• 25:35
  podcast. Enjoy the sweats everyone. Have
• 25:38
  a great night and good luck.