Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / How Starship Flight 12 Can Save NASA

Transcript

How Starship Flight 12 Can Save NASA · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads that
• 0:08
  shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neurolink.
• 0:13
  I'm your host, Will Walden. Starship closed 2025 on October
• 0:19
  13th with its 11th test flight from Starbase in Texas.
• 0:23
  The booster splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico after a
• 0:26
  controlled descent, and the ship ended the mission in the Indian
• 0:29
  Ocean after engine relight and heat shield tests.
• 0:33
  NASA still pegs the first Artemis 3 crude lunar landing
• 0:37
  for no earlier than 2027, which puts pressure on SpaceX to
• 0:42
  accelerate milestones. So when does Flight 12 actually
• 0:45
  happen? A Flight 11 delivered concrete
• 0:48
  data the SpaceX needed. The mission, launched at 623
• 0:52
  PMCT, sent a batch of mass simulators, Relit engines in
• 0:58
  space, tested new thermal protection, and executed plan
• 1:01
  splashdowns that preserved telemetry across entry, descent,
• 1:05
  and landing. SpaceX called the flight a step
• 1:08
  toward an upgraded prototype with hardware tailored for
• 1:12
  orbital refueling and docking, and the next campaign shifts to
• 1:16
  a new hardware class. SpaceX retires the Block 2
• 1:20
  booster and pivots to Block 3, which brings higher thrust
• 1:24
  structural refinement such as modified grid fins and a
• 1:28
  slightly taller, fully stacked vehicle at about 124.4 meters.
• 1:34
  This is the configuration expected to carry the lunar
• 1:38
  variant forward now. Scheduling remains the first
• 1:42
  practical question. SpaceX has not posted a target
• 1:45
  for Flight 12, and early 2026 now looks more realistic than
• 1:50
  any remaining 2025 window. The company also plans to bring
• 1:54
  up a second launch site at Kennedy Space Center to support
• 1:58
  a push toward roughly biweekly flights once the new pad and
• 2:02
  ground systems are ready. Now, the 11th flight wrapped
• 2:05
  Spacex's 2025 Starship test slate and cleared the decks for
• 2:10
  the bigger upgrade. Coverage of the program framed
• 2:13
  the transition as a move toward ship version three that
• 2:17
  stretches capability and increases payload.
• 2:20
  The year end handoff focuses engineering efforts on in orbit
• 2:24
  refueling, docking systems and higher cadence production runs,
• 2:29
  and refueling sits at the center of the lunar plan.
• 2:34
  SpaceX and NASA need an on orbit transfer between two Starships
• 2:38
  that moves hundreds of tons of super cool propellant, A
• 2:42
  maneuver no one has ever executed before.
• 2:45
  SpaceX and NASA point to a refueling demo next year as a
• 2:49
  gating item for the Artemis 3 timeline.
• 2:53
  Now test count matters because the crude mission date sits on
• 2:56
  the far side of several unproven operations.
• 3:00
  Estimates in European policy circles put the need at roughly
• 3:04
  10 to 20 more Starships tests before Cruise Board, assuming
• 3:09
  nominal outcomes without long investigative processes.
• 3:13
  Now that cadence only becomes plausible if Flight 12 starts to
• 3:18
  2026, run early, and the ground teams turn vehicles around
• 3:23
  without a major rework. Orbit remains another clear
• 3:27
  threshold. Starship has reached space but
• 3:30
  has not completed a full Earth orbit, which means the program
• 3:34
  still must prove orbital performance controlled the
• 3:37
  orbiting and recovery logistics at scale.
• 3:40
  Flight 12 holds value if it either hits orbit or rehearses
• 3:45
  the specific sequencing for the refueling demo and hardware
• 3:51
  scope widen and SpaceX prepares the Florida site.
• 3:55
  The company is building out Kennedy infrastructure to split
• 3:58
  operations across Texas and Florida, which reduces weather
• 4:02
  and range risk and supports higher cadence once the Florida
• 4:06
  pad goes online. The dual pad approach also
• 4:10
  creates A practical path for tanker and Lander launches that
• 4:15
  must rendezvous on a tight timeline.
• 4:18
  Mission architecture ties these pieces together.
• 4:20
  For Artemis 3, NASA plans to send astronauts to lunar orbit
• 4:24
  on Orion and SLS, then transfer the crew to a lunar optimized
• 4:28
  Starship for the descent to the surface.
• 4:31
  That transfer requires mature docking life support on the
• 4:36
  Lander and a refueled Starship waiting on station.
• 4:41
  Program risk remains manageable if SpaceX locks in a repeatable
• 4:46
  rhythm. The 11th flight proved water
• 4:48
  landings for both stages. Engine relight and heat shield
• 4:52
  upgrades under real condition, which reduces unknowns for Block
• 4:55
  3. The next step converts those
• 4:58
  discrete checks into a system level demonstration of orbit,
• 5:03
  docking hardware and propellant transfer.
• 5:07
  Now a successful Flight 12, an operational Florida pad in a
• 5:11
  refueling demo would put Artemis 3 back on a credible path
• 5:16
  towards a 2027 attempt. Miss cadence or partial demos
• 5:21
  would push the schedule while competitors and pressure from
• 5:24
  below. Flight 12 is very important
• 5:28
  because it starts the Block 3 era and sets up the refueling
• 5:32
  demo that Artemis 3 timeline needs.
• 5:36
  Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
• 5:38
  I really do appreciate your support.
• 5:40
  If you could take a second and hit the subscribe or the follow
• 5:43
  button on whatever podcast platform that you're listening
• 5:45
  on right now, I greatly appreciate it.
• 5:48
  It helps out the show tremendously and you'll never
• 5:50
  miss an episode. And each episode is about 10
• 5:53
  minutes or less to get you caught up quickly.
• 5:56
  And please, if you want to support the show even more, go
• 5:59
  to patreon.com/stagezero and please take care of yourselves
• 6:05
  and each other and I'll see you tomorrow.