Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / The Fed May Hike Even If Growth Softens

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The Fed May Hike Even If Growth Softens · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

0:02
SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Friday Live, the Friday, the partners of HBK Property.
0:06
SPEAKER_01: Get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and into financial planning topics.
0:10
SPEAKER_01: So, in a rare occurrence, usually uh an annual event.
0:14
SPEAKER_01: The three of us are in person today to do this Friday live on Jobs Friday, which is one of my favorite days of the month.
0:21
SPEAKER_01: I don't know about you guys.
0:24
SPEAKER_01: Open the bell.
0:25
SPEAKER_01: Over in the bell.
0:26
SPEAKER_00: Over in the middle.
0:27
SPEAKER_01: And it's also our annual client appreciation baseball game tonight, weather permitting.
0:32
SPEAKER_01: It's uh we're in Washington, PA, and there's a good chance of rain and thunderstorm.
0:38
SPEAKER_01: So we'll see what happens with that.
0:41
SPEAKER_03: For all the attendees, expected attendees that are watching us right now.
0:46
SPEAKER_03: If it if the game is canceled beforehand, the event, unfortunately, is canceled.
0:51
SPEAKER_03: Uh, if it rains during the game, we'll be undercover.
0:54
SPEAKER_03: We've got all the food right there, and we'll just enjoy some hot dogs and hamburgers.
0:58
SPEAKER_01: Maybe we'll be in the parking lot with our hot dog cart since we'll have a plethora of food, but we just might have some leftovers.
1:07
SPEAKER_00: Bring appetites, bring bags, take them back with you.
1:12
SPEAKER_03: Bring to go with the game.
1:14
SPEAKER_03: I can't say that.
1:15
SPEAKER_01: So uh going into this Friday jobs report, uh, non-farm payrolls, we're expecting about a$54,000,$54,000 job increase on a month.
1:25
SPEAKER_01: Last month, if you recall, the number was about negative 23,000.
1:29
SPEAKER_01: These numbers have been so volatile.
1:30
SPEAKER_01: I was talking to David about before the numbers coming out this morning what he was predicting.
1:35
SPEAKER_01: And he was thinking about it for about two minutes.
1:38
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, honestly, these numbers are so volatile with seasonal adjustments, you can't predict it.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: Last couple of times we've had one or two negative months of readings.
1:46
SPEAKER_01: The next month is a robust number, and that's exactly what we got today.
1:49
SPEAKER_01: We got 162,000, and the prior months, two months were revised up to 54,000.
1:55
SPEAKER_01: So you really have to average these numbers out.
1:58
SPEAKER_01: I'd say three to five month average is where you really need to sit.
2:02
SPEAKER_01: Um, the three-month average is about 77,000.
2:05
SPEAKER_01: So that's pretty consistent with the a full labor market right now.
2:09
SPEAKER_01: I mean, in other periods, you need more job growth to sustain the unemployment rate at the low end.
2:15
SPEAKER_01: But we were expecting 4.2% on the unemployment rate.
2:19
SPEAKER_01: We came uh steady from last month at 4.1%.
2:23
SPEAKER_01: Um, so I think though that's one of the key components that we need to watch in the labor market, the unemployment rate and wage growth.
2:31
SPEAKER_01: Wage growth on a year-over-year basis, in line with last month, a little lower than consensus, came in at 3.1%.
2:38
SPEAKER_01: It's being outpaced by inflation.
2:40
SPEAKER_01: So not a good thing, but um on a monthly basis, 0.3.
2:44
SPEAKER_01: That's a pretty healthy number.
2:46
SPEAKER_01: Um, earlier in the week, we got a Jolts number, that's the job openings that came in lower than consensus, but higher than last month.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: I mean, not a bad number in the 7 million and change range.
2:58
SPEAKER_01: Um, besides that, we got the ISM numbers, ISM manufacturing was a slight miss and a little lower than last month.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: Uh ISM surfaces was very strong, uh, came in around 55 and change, higher than consensus and last month.
3:11
SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, some mixed data.
3:13
SPEAKER_01: Um, overall, the the data was pretty good on the week.
3:16
SPEAKER_01: Um markets were largely flat, a little lower on the week.
3:21
SPEAKER_01: Yesterday was a big up day.
3:23
SPEAKER_01: Nice, it looked like we were starting to get seeing some traction to the upside.
3:27
SPEAKER_01: Markets were up over, I think the SP was up over a percent.
3:31
SPEAKER_01: And I think that was largely due to Waller's comments um making the case for um not necessarily increasing rates in September.
3:40
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, right now.
3:41
SPEAKER_01: We're listening to half of it back.
3:43
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there we go.
3:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we're down half a percent on the market today.
3:47
SPEAKER_01: Um, someone on CMPC was talking about Waller likes to just be a contrarian, but I see Waller as being a pretty good predictor in the last couple years.
3:56
SPEAKER_01: So um I I think I think the Fed share kind of put himself into a corner with talking about how Powell did a terrible job of not getting inflation's been too high for five years above the Fed's target.
4:11
SPEAKER_01: 2% is what we're getting back to.
4:13
SPEAKER_01: It's a choice, and we're gonna raise rates to do that.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: He hasn't done that so far.
4:18
SPEAKER_01: Um, so I'd I think I think the market right now is pricing about 50% chance of a rate increase.
4:25
SPEAKER_01: Maybe that went up a little bit more today.
4:28
SPEAKER_01: But um, what the Fed will do and what the Fed should do, I think, are two separate things.
4:32
SPEAKER_01: If it was me, I would say, you know, there is some underlying weakness.
4:37
SPEAKER_01: Retail sales have been weak.
4:39
SPEAKER_01: Obviously, the the payroll numbers haven't been strong on the flip side, employment's been low.
4:44
SPEAKER_01: Um, but I think they will probably pull the trigger on that rate hike.
4:50
SPEAKER_01: Because if it's not in September, it's not gonna be in the next meeting.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: So we're pushing it off to December, and he's made such a strong case for getting back down to that target.
5:00
SPEAKER_01: So I think we'll probably see.
5:02
SPEAKER_01: I think that's next week, Tuesday and a Wednesday, right?
5:06
SPEAKER_01: Uh two weeks.
5:07
SPEAKER_03: I think it's the I think it's 60.
5:09
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
5:10
SPEAKER_01: Um, looking at the markets, the chart still looks healthy.
5:12
SPEAKER_01: We're above all major moving averages on the SP 500.
5:15
SPEAKER_01: We're in the lower end of this consolidation range, but overall pretty healthy.
5:19
SPEAKER_01: Uh, we have seen a big uptick in rates.
5:22
SPEAKER_01: So the two years kind of an indicator of what the Fed will do.
5:25
SPEAKER_01: So that's indicating we're probably gonna see rate increases.
5:29
SPEAKER_01: The 10-year, which is more reflective of inflation numbers, economic growth these days.
5:35
SPEAKER_01: The government debt, we're also at the high end of the range.
5:37
SPEAKER_01: Um, if we see a breakout there, we're likely to see five percent.
5:41
SPEAKER_01: Um, outside of that, crude oil, we're back above 90 a barrel.
5:46
SPEAKER_01: So that's likely to, I mean, not next week's uh inflation report, but the following month should have some upward pressure on that.
5:55
SPEAKER_01: Uh going to the inflation numbers of next week, we get uh I think PPI first on Wednesday.
6:04
SPEAKER_01: Expect to see some big numbers uh on the core, 4.6 on a year-over-year basis and 5.4 on the headline.
6:12
SPEAKER_01: That's very robust.
6:14
SPEAKER_01: Fortunately, the CPI data looks much better coming in at 0.2% on the month.
6:18
SPEAKER_01: I mean, that's that's relatively in line with the the Fed's target.
6:21
SPEAKER_01: Annualized 2.3%, headline 3.4.
6:26
SPEAKER_01: Headline's a little high on the monthly side at 0.38.
6:30
SPEAKER_01: Um, but yeah, I think uh we'll have to see what the Fed says in the next meeting.
6:35
SPEAKER_01: I I was I was certain, like we talked about last week, I was certainly glad to see a little more clarity in what his mindset is.
6:43
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he just kept saying we have a we have committee for that.
6:48
SPEAKER_01: Um we're we're trying to figure out the best mechanism for getting to inflation.
6:53
SPEAKER_01: But now it sounds like he's kind of sticking to the traditional playbook of raising rates and um wanting to get back to that, and the broad inflation numbers are too high, even though it's being weighed down on a large part by the housing component now, and that's finally starting to see some down um some down on the tailwind is the word I'm looking for.
7:15
SPEAKER_03: Any uh any comments on the economy or should we just get into the interest rates go up and hopefully money market and CD rates go up?
7:22
SPEAKER_03: You know, uh we talked about this before.
7:24
SPEAKER_03: We got a deal.
7:26
SPEAKER_03: What is what it is, and if rates go up, we'll you know, we'll figure there there could be a silver lining for that for sure.
7:32
SPEAKER_01: And we all know the stock market is not the economy.
7:35
SPEAKER_01: Um we know that most people but I mean earnings are incredible this this quarter.
7:42
SPEAKER_01: We were looking at 50% earnings growth, 15% revenue growth.
7:47
SPEAKER_01: Um a good component of that was the investment in these AI private companies that accounted for about 10% of that earnings growth.
7:56
SPEAKER_01: But you strip out tech in general and you're still sitting at 20%.
8:00
SPEAKER_01: Now, obviously, some of the non-traditional tech stocks and companies are benefiting from the the AI build-out with infrastructure and uh manufacturing and all that.
8:12
SPEAKER_01: But uh yeah, overall, good quarter.
8:14
SPEAKER_01: Um and spending is probably being held up in a large part by you know stock markets near our all-time highs.
8:22
SPEAKER_01: Housing really hasn't seen significant losses.
8:25
SPEAKER_01: Um so overall, valuable, and that that takes us to our first uh blog post of the week.
8:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh I had something to say.
8:33
SPEAKER_00: We had a um a good report this week in regard to um down um the pharmaceuticals.
8:43
SPEAKER_00: Um there was like 26 pharmaceutical companies have agreed to lower their prices, uh, which that's good.
8:54
SPEAKER_00: I mean, my high blood pressure medicine, I pay I pay less now uh to go in cash than I did when I had a deductible, you know, uh or the the co-chair.
9:06
SPEAKER_00: Um insurance is a scam.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: And and so there's some there's some support for um making life a little bit easier to live.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: Um however, you know, uh obviously it seems like the drugs uh from the pharmaceuticals generally benefit the older population.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: Um and it seems like the gas prices and the groceries seem to uh hurt the younger population more.
9:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so we don't want to see a class warfare here.
9:40
SPEAKER_00: Um I'm being facetious, but um we we want to see some wins in regard to the gas and the groceries, that's what's being looked at more so than than drugs and so forth, and that really shapes the overall um inflation expectations, yeah.
9:58
SPEAKER_01: It's gonna shape more than exactly.
10:01
SPEAKER_01: And that's coming up.
10:02
SPEAKER_03: People really vote with their wallets, they do.
10:04
SPEAKER_03: Let's face back.
10:06
unknown: Yes.
10:07
SPEAKER_01: Um, so going into our blog posts, I mean the one on Monday is just talking about, you know, even though we've seen a big increase in the stock market over the last couple years, you know, the bottom, the denominator of that equation is earnings, and earnings have been very strong.
10:22
SPEAKER_01: We're uh we're up 20% last quarter, 50% this quarter, next quarter, I believe it's still supposed to be about 20% earnings growth.
10:31
SPEAKER_01: So valuations aren't getting that pricey.
10:34
SPEAKER_01: They've been, I mean, they're above the 20-year average, but we've been above the 20-year average for the last seven years.
10:41
SPEAKER_01: Like, what about what a big amount.
10:45
SPEAKER_03: Seven years ago, a lot of people said this can't last, it's ridiculous.
10:48
SPEAKER_03: Well, it has.
10:49
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
10:50
SPEAKER_01: And like we were talking about in our meeting last night, I I think eventually this will end with overinvestment and a credit crunch.
10:58
SPEAKER_01: It always does.
10:59
SPEAKER_01: Um, but I don't think we're there yet.
11:01
SPEAKER_01: I think I think we have some more runway.
11:03
SPEAKER_03: Well, you bring up a great point, and you know, I had this observation a couple weeks ago.
11:07
SPEAKER_03: Somebody said to me, Why in the world would I consider investing right now um the way the economy is?
11:13
SPEAKER_03: To your point, the economy is not the market.
11:15
SPEAKER_03: Uh, people feel pain in the economy with the price of gas.
11:18
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, hey, I just moved a couple kids into college and uh was it spent a lot of time in Walmarts and Targets and that kind of thing.
11:25
SPEAKER_03: It's real.
11:26
SPEAKER_03: And I mean, there's no doubt I won't minimize it.
11:29
SPEAKER_03: Uh, but you know, it's very likely that your investments, your retirement plans, 401k's IRAs should be doing pretty good right now.
11:36
SPEAKER_03: And there is a disconnect, and I get it, I've seen it, I feel it myself.
11:40
SPEAKER_03: Um, so that is a little bit of a misguided observation.
11:43
SPEAKER_03: Why would I invest right now when the economy is the way it is?
11:47
SPEAKER_03: Because the economy does not equal stock market.
11:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and markets tend to be pretty trend driven.
11:53
SPEAKER_01: So if like you say, I don't want to invest in all type highs.
11:57
SPEAKER_01: Historically, it's it's a pretty good time to invest, honestly.
12:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean, obviously, there's those stories that the people get in in the 07, 08s and you know have a terrible time and then probably sell out when the market drops and gets back in in 2016, 2017, 2022.
12:17
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, 22 is fine.
12:19
SPEAKER_00: Not a good recipe for long-term investing.
12:22
SPEAKER_03: Uh well, save as much as you can as often as you can, give yourself plenty of time.
12:26
SPEAKER_03: There you go.
12:27
SPEAKER_03: Yep, that has not changed.
12:28
SPEAKER_03: AI has not changed that, valuations have not changed that.
12:32
SPEAKER_03: Um, interest rates, inflation have not changed.
12:35
SPEAKER_03: Save as much as you can as often as you can, give yourself plenty of time.
12:38
SPEAKER_01: And make sure you have enough ample cash to meet those short-term liquidity needs.
12:43
SPEAKER_01: And then you can write out these bear markets, and you know, you're not drawing from things at a loss.
12:48
SPEAKER_01: You have that cash set aside and something safe, maybe interest-bearing.
12:52
SPEAKER_01: Um, but yeah, you have enough to cover that.
12:55
SPEAKER_01: That's where the anxiety comes from.
12:56
SPEAKER_03: The anxiety comes from if my portfolio, if my investments are down and I need the money.
13:03
SPEAKER_03: Well, if you have a good personal reserve, some people call it a merger's uh emergency fund, that personal reserve, that could be a fee for opportunity or emergency.
13:11
SPEAKER_03: If you have a solid personal reserve, then you don't worry as much if your investments are down and you need some money because you have your personal reserve.
13:18
SPEAKER_03: That reduces the that's an outstanding foundational financial planning.
13:22
SPEAKER_03: Uh, and it also reduces stress significantly.
13:27
SPEAKER_00: Also having guaranteed income, whether it's social security or whether it's uh an income strip from an annuity.
13:34
SPEAKER_00: Um we find that our clients that have annuities are happier in their retirement.
13:38
SPEAKER_00: There is no there's just no question.
13:41
SPEAKER_03: Social security, pension, guaranteed income source, possibly from an insurance company.
13:46
SPEAKER_03: Maybe something that uh I I I I you know the fact of the matter is those folks enjoy life more.
13:53
SPEAKER_03: I don't know why that is.
13:54
SPEAKER_03: I you know, I can't speak to them individually.
13:57
SPEAKER_03: It it's it's fact now, it's not a basic observation in our practice.
14:01
SPEAKER_03: And there are 70s that indicate as such as well.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: Now we're really getting in the the heart of the pre-midterm season, and typically that's uh that's a volatile time for stocks.
14:12
SPEAKER_01: September historically is a bad time for stocks, but in a midterm year, and midterm years tend to be the worst year out of the four-year presidential cycle.
14:20
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
14:20
SPEAKER_01: But like everything else with market investment philosophy, markets just want clarity.
14:26
SPEAKER_01: So it honestly doesn't really matter that much what the makeup of the House, Senate, and executive branch is.
15:02
SPEAKER_01: I mean, markets usually like to panic about something, so maybe maybe it's midterms, maybe it's uh potential interest rate I can uh Mike.
15:11
SPEAKER_00: Are you calling us a bunch of chick-a-mirks?
15:14
SPEAKER_01: Um, but the good news is post-midterm tends to be one of the best periods of time.
15:19
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think the average six-month return after a midterm year is about 14%.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: Um contrary to other years, I I believe that's sub-10%, closer to the 7% range, so almost double the historical average.
15:33
SPEAKER_03: So I you know, hey, I would say the markets uh are are very much uh thinking the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.
15:42
SPEAKER_03: We don't know who it will be uh until after the elections, and then you get some comfort, right?
15:47
SPEAKER_03: So devil you know is better than devil you don't.
15:49
SPEAKER_03: Once we know who they are, once we know who on what side of the aisle these self-serving people are gonna try to guide us into the future, then you know now we know who it is.
16:00
SPEAKER_01: You guys have any guesses on House and Senate?
16:02
SPEAKER_01: Nope.
16:02
SPEAKER_03: No, no, there's there's too much time between now and then too.
16:07
SPEAKER_03: I don't think it could happen.
16:08
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:10
SPEAKER_00: There's we're not even out of September, let on the October surprises.
16:14
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot to be had there.
16:15
SPEAKER_00: A lot of surprises, yeah.
16:16
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and we will get uh at least one more inflation report before the next Fed meeting.
16:23
SPEAKER_01: Um, so we'll see if that moves the needle on anything.
16:27
SPEAKER_01: Gonna be interesting.
16:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it'll exist.
16:29
SPEAKER_01: It just makes it fun.
16:30
SPEAKER_01: Uh turning to our Tuesday posts about 529 plans and the benefit of having a grandparent open one up.
16:37
SPEAKER_01: You guys wanna either one of you want to touch on that one?
16:40
SPEAKER_00: Uh simple fact is uh uh the the law was changed.
16:45
SPEAKER_00: It used to be um and I've done 529s for gee 20 plus years.
16:51
SPEAKER_00: Um it doesn't for a grandparent to have a 529 plan, it does not hurt their grandchild when they apply for the FAFSA when they apply for the financial aid package, it does not count against them, and that's that's a significant change.
17:09
SPEAKER_00: Um very significant.
17:10
SPEAKER_00: So you don't have to worry about shooting yourself in the foot if you want to give some money to your grandkids.
17:17
SPEAKER_00: Um now you can gift up to$19,000 per year to anyone, not a bad place for your grandkids.
17:25
SPEAKER_00: Now, uh it doesn't have to be the whole$19,000.
17:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh if they're young, you know, just donate the thousand or five thousand or you know, whatever you can afford is gonna be beneficial.
17:38
SPEAKER_00: Put it in a 529 plan, it'll grow tax-free when it's used for college and college available expenses, it becomes tax free.
17:45
SPEAKER_00: Anything that's left over um after age 25 or so, you can the the child could actually turn it into a Roth IRA, still tax-free presently.
17:59
SPEAKER_01: Or you have the flexibility of turning it over to another child if you just dissolve it, or if your kid didn't go to college, or I was talking with somebody the other day, they have one five twenty-nine.
18:10
SPEAKER_03: Um, and the the ages of the children are spread out, they have one five twenty-nine.
18:15
SPEAKER_03: They use some of it for the first time.
18:17
SPEAKER_03: Uh, first child is done using it for what they needed it for, change the beneficiary to the next child, and then they just get rolling, and now they're uh uh their last of the four children in college, and there's gonna be something left over for the younger one before they go to college.
18:32
SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, change beneficiary.
18:33
SPEAKER_01: And you can also, if you have a child with disabilities, move it into an able account.
18:38
SPEAKER_01: That's right.
18:38
SPEAKER_03: Okay, that's right.
18:39
SPEAKER_03: So to your children's children, yes.
18:44
SPEAKER_03: I mean you could change that generation.
18:46
SPEAKER_03: Oh, you could just absolutely have a child that didn't use 529, you didn't move it into a Roth IRA for that child, and then they have children, which would be your grandchild.
18:57
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, change benefits.
18:58
SPEAKER_03: Now you got a lazy uh uh account that uh if used properly, done correctly, be tax-free.
19:04
SPEAKER_01: And sometimes parents need a little something to consume the time and want to take some college credits themselves.
19:11
SPEAKER_03: Uh absolutely well said, absolutely.
19:14
SPEAKER_03: I've been I've been depleting 529s the last few years, they're fantastic when used properly.
19:20
SPEAKER_01: And then our uh our Wednesday, or I think Thursday post was pretty generic, just about you know, entering retirement, kind of like the topic we were just talking about, taking college credits as a as a retiree.
19:32
SPEAKER_03: Um I I think you know my observation is happy retirement is about staying active, active physically, socially, and mentally.
19:41
SPEAKER_03: Uh the happiest uh of the retirees that I see are active in those three capacities.
19:48
SPEAKER_03: Uh you know, no, it don't have to be doing marathons, but you know, staying active mentally, physically, socially.
19:56
SPEAKER_01: Well, you guys have anything else to add before we uh get going for the weekend?
20:00
SPEAKER_01: I know I don't it it's pouring out right now in Pennsylvania, so I don't know if we're gonna be going to a baseball game tonight, but fingers crossed.
20:09
SPEAKER_01: If not, there's next year.
20:12
SPEAKER_01: And checking on the markets before we go, we're down about four tenths of a percent, but there's a lot of hours left in the trading day.
20:18
SPEAKER_03: So we'll until see what goes on for three to four o'clock.
20:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean it's it's a classic good news is bad news day in terms of the job market.
20:25
SPEAKER_00: So I got a fun story.
20:28
SPEAKER_00: My uh uh my two grandsons uh and my wife came across these tennis, these tennis shoes that are Hot Wheel tennis shoes.
20:37
SPEAKER_00: Oh okay.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: All right, so that's nice.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: They're they're in the Hot Wheels uh decoration and loc loco, you know.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: Well, they have a garage in the soul and you open up the garage and a little car comes out.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: Oh my god.
20:56
SPEAKER_00: Little matchbox or garage in the little hot wheel car.
21:00
SPEAKER_00: I got a hand out, unbelievable.
21:02
SPEAKER_00: And and my wife said, Oh, look what I found is just so cute.
21:05
SPEAKER_00: I said, No.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: And they said, What do you mean?
21:08
SPEAKER_00: No, I even the kids have too much as it is, you know.
21:12
SPEAKER_00: But being a grandparent, okay, uh, because they were half price.
21:19
SPEAKER_00: So they went from 90 to 45.
21:22
SPEAKER_01: So well, the the big thing when I was in growing up, we had the light-up shoes, which were a lot of fun as a kid, and then we had those I forget what they're called, wheelies, they had the little wheels in the back.
21:34
SPEAKER_01: I'd wear them at school and when the teachers weren't looking and cruise down the hallway a little bit.
21:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, okay.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: But let me tell you, Jay, he's four.
21:42
SPEAKER_00: Okay, he loved his nunny so much.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: Nunny, can I give you a hug?
21:46
SPEAKER_00: He just loved these little tennis shoes.
21:49
SPEAKER_00: He took them to bed with him.
21:51
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: And he says, Why did you get this?
21:55
SPEAKER_00: Were they on sale?
21:57
SPEAKER_00: Were they cheap?
21:59
SPEAKER_00: A little four-year-old, unbelievable.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: Well, I thank my daughter for trying to teach them the value of money and the value of Papa's money.
22:12
SPEAKER_01: All right.
22:13
SPEAKER_01: Well, we will be back next Friday by 12 30 Eastern time and go over the latest inflation data, the PPI data, the CPI data, and what is going on in the market right now.
22:23
SPEAKER_01: I think it's a little uh little vulnerable.
22:26
SPEAKER_01: I mean, we could go either way here, um, whether the next move is up 10% or down 10%.
22:31
SPEAKER_01: If I had to bet on it with the midterm year, I'd probably bet to the downside.
22:36
SPEAKER_01: But I like to be a little more conservative with my investment approach.
22:40
SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, it's better to prepare for uh things might go down then.
22:43
SPEAKER_03: No, don't worry about it.
22:44
SPEAKER_03: I think you're going straight out.
22:45
SPEAKER_03: If you're wrong on the downside, then it's not terrible, right?
22:48
SPEAKER_03: If you're wrong and overstretch yourself and then it goes down, then it's kind of it's really painful.
22:53
SPEAKER_03: You know, we feel lost two times greater than we enjoy gaining.
22:57
SPEAKER_03: That is true.
22:58
SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of behavioral psychology studies on that.
23:01
unknown: No doubt.
23:02
SPEAKER_01: All right.
23:02
SPEAKER_01: Well, we will be back next Friday.
23:04
SPEAKER_01: Everyone have a great weekend.
23:07
SPEAKER_02: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLT, member FINRA and SIPC.org.
23:12
SPEAKER_02: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLT.
23:16
SPEAKER_02: A registered investment advisor.
23:18
SPEAKER_02: Brian Peluto, Michael Kutz, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLT.
23:37
SPEAKER_02: The fruits of LPL financed or affiliated all investments involved for it, including the five.