Latest / No Dirt No Flowers Podcast / How We Got Here / Part 2 / Ft. Leslie Roy
Transcript
- 0:00Hello everyone and welcome back to episode 4
- 0:02of No Dirt No Flowers. Today's episode is How
- 0:05We Got Here Part 2 featuring Les Roy. He'll be
- 0:10sitting down with Mike and Drew to finish the
- 0:12conversation about how the hop industry got to
- 0:14where it is today. Now, if you know my father,
- 0:17this will come as no surprise that this episode
- 0:19is going to be a long one. But hopefully you'll
- 0:21find it as entertaining and enjoyable as we do.
- 0:24Oh, one more thing. Around five minutes into
- 0:26the podcast, Mike, Drew, and my father will begin
- 0:29discussing something called the Federal Marketing
- 0:30Order. Now, for those of you who don't know,
- 0:33this was a government program that regulated
- 0:35and at times restricted the production of hops
- 0:38in the country. There have been several throughout
- 0:41the history of the U .S., but the one they'll
- 0:43be discussing in particular today began in 1966
- 0:46and ended in 1985. Enjoy the show. No, no, no,
- 1:00no, no, no, no. You just you do you. First of
- 1:03all, let's start with ground rules on timing
- 1:05answers. OK, can I get a piece? I have a piece
- 1:07of paper to write down questions. I think you
- 1:10just seem to be off the top of your head. Yeah.
- 1:12So we have this challenge now where we're talking
- 1:15about attention deficit disorder times three.
- 1:19And so we got to figure out how to stay on task
- 1:22here. Yeah. There's so much to say. I mean, it's
- 1:25a lifetime. It's a journey of a lifetime. We
- 1:27got two hours. Two hours? There can be more if
- 1:32we all behave. Okay. All right. So we got two
- 1:38hours, and we're going to try and be as focused
- 1:43as possible. Maybe an hour and 45. Hour and 45.
- 1:46Perfect. This will be the longest podcast we've
- 1:49ever recorded. It could be. Serious? It's only
- 1:53our fourth podcast. True. Okay. No dirt, no flowers.
- 1:58How we got here, part two, featuring Les Roy.
- 2:01Should we start with an introduction? Like, tell
- 2:04us who you are. Sure. Should we just start over?
- 2:07He can use any B -roll he wants. Yeah, I mean,
- 2:09we're recording and he can edit this all out,
- 2:11so. Welcome to episode four, no dirt, no flowers,
- 2:14with one Leslie Roy. Les Roy. The patriarch.
- 2:22The current. The current patriarch. How are you?
- 2:25Good. Thank you guys for inviting me here today.
- 2:28Tell us a little bit about yourself and how you
- 2:31got into this hop game. Well, I was born into
- 2:37it. It's funny, I'm sitting here looking out
- 2:40the window, and that's the same window I grew
- 2:42up looking out, or the same view I had as a young
- 2:46child. Right where we're sitting is where I was
- 2:49born and raised in this house. It was a house.
- 2:52The current office was the house? Or this is
- 2:54where the house sat? This is where the house
- 2:56sat. Then it moved and we built the office. But
- 2:59the view is the same. When did they bring electricity
- 3:02in? We had electricity. We didn't have TV for
- 3:08a while. We had a house. There were seven kids.
- 3:13One bathroom with a tub. It was an add -on because
- 3:17prior to the 1950s, it had an outside odd house.
- 3:21So when they add it on, they just add it right
- 3:24to the kitchen. So you can imagine this back
- 3:26and forth of nine people in a house. The upstairs
- 3:30was divided to left side, right side, boys on
- 3:34the right, girls on the left. It was just kind
- 3:36of a dorm style. It was pretty interesting. No
- 3:40heat upstairs, no air conditioning. We didn't
- 3:42even heard of air conditioning back in those
- 3:43days. But the view from the window, the small
- 3:47window we had, is the same view that we're looking
- 3:49at today. What else did you raise or just hops?
- 3:53We were hops. Well, we had chickens, cows, milk
- 3:56cows, made butter, things like that. Did you
- 3:59milk the cows? Yes, my father did. I think I
- 4:05might have participated at times, but it was
- 4:07not a responsibility. How big was the ranch when
- 4:11you were? My father started at this location
- 4:14in 1950 with 20 acres. And he bought from a man
- 4:21called Henry Fortier. At that time, the Rosa
- 4:24irrigation system was just coming into play.
- 4:27So the area up in this area was all irrigated
- 4:31by wells. And then eventually it was replaced
- 4:34by the Rosa irrigation district. And it's a funny
- 4:39thing. I was looking at some old history as I
- 4:41was moved from my office to my new office, ran
- 4:45across some old papers that had the contracts,
- 4:48the very first contracts my father had. And my
- 4:51grandfather, who farmed across the valley, which
- 4:54is a couple miles away, had to co -sign for my
- 4:57father's first hop contract, Steiner and Haas.
- 5:00Oh, wow. Yeah, like, you know, 20 acres was 40
- 5:04,000 pounds total. A month of picking with a
- 5:08portable picker to do 20 -some acres, about an
- 5:11acre a day. We'd fill up one kill that was probably
- 5:1640 by 40, maybe 30 by 35 or something like that.
- 5:20That was the whole day. Was it wood -fired? No,
- 5:24it was coal. Then we were using sulfur at the
- 5:27time. When did you guys start scaling? Probably...
- 5:33By the late 50s, we were starting to buy. The
- 5:36farms were starting to transition to other owners
- 5:41and stuff, sell. The owners were selling, so
- 5:43we started buying at that time. So by 1985, I
- 5:49came back to the farm in 74 after I graduated
- 5:52from WSU. Got my degree in economics and came
- 5:56back. My father put a shovel in my hand. For
- 5:59the next four years, I just dug ditches irrigating.
- 6:02So there was a period of time that I didn't really
- 6:04know a lot about the financial side of it or
- 6:06even the marketing side. 1966, they put the federal
- 6:10marketing order in. Came back in 74 with a young
- 6:15bride from the city. She didn't forgive me for
- 6:19about 10 years, taking her out to the country.
- 6:23You described Yakima so much nicer than this.
- 6:27Yes, for sure. Yeah. So then. Marking order was
- 6:32in play. A lot of people were involved in various
- 6:37organizations. Tom Carpenter started a young
- 6:41farmers group. Mike Smith, Steve Peralt, Darren
- 6:47Gamache. A lot of us, all of us young farmers
- 6:50were involved. We'd go there for like once a
- 6:53month or something and have these little... discussion
- 6:56groups at that time it was all about virus you
- 6:58know and everybody was scared what viruses are
- 7:00going to do so we helped pursue some research
- 7:04along those lines so since the title is how we
- 7:07got here part two you wrote the exact same thing
- 7:10i wrote i know so let's start we both wrote down
- 7:13marketing order so this is something that i don't
- 7:17know a whole lot about i remember you talking
- 7:18about it um throughout the years about how is
- 7:23this time of health And I think I'm curious about
- 7:28that as we look at where we're at right now and
- 7:31how we got here. How did some of these failures
- 7:34and successes of the past bring us to this point?
- 7:38And one of the things I'd like to hear a little
- 7:40bit more about is the marketing order and maybe
- 7:42the pros and cons of it and how that was viewed
- 7:46across the industry. Well, there was actually
- 7:49the one that... that was put in place in 1966
- 7:52was actually the third one. They had tried previous
- 7:56iterations, and in some cases they controlled
- 8:00it by acreage. They tried to control it by bales
- 8:04and pounds. They just never lasted. It was very
- 8:08controversial. In fact, there's one newspaper
- 8:10article of my father and my uncle, his brother,
- 8:15both on opposite sides of the marketing order.
- 8:18It's a great news article if you ever want to
- 8:21look at it. But they were put in place during
- 8:24very difficult times in the market. Back in those
- 8:27days, the market was wildly crazy. We had all
- 8:31the states. New York was a player, plus, of course,
- 8:35England and some other places. And the Western
- 8:38expansion of the population created demand, and
- 8:42there was a lot of problem. That's when... Aphids
- 8:45started coming in, and mildew came in, blue mold.
- 8:49There was blue mold, which is kind of like paranospera.
- 8:53Not a paranospera. That would be a downy mildew,
- 8:56but it's kind of like that. They had these diseases
- 8:59that would devastate the crop at harvest, and
- 9:01you'd create these massive shortages, and it
- 9:04was just a wild time. But in 66, we put in the
- 9:08federal marketing order. There was, I think it
- 9:12was 13 people on the board. And then they met.
- 9:16It was federally mandated to all hops that were
- 9:19raised. And that included California at the time.
- 9:23California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho. Was Canada
- 9:26a part of that? No. No. But so when it was put
- 9:30in place, it was basically the marketing order
- 9:32would meet or the board, they called them. There
- 9:36was a lot of jokes. A lot of people were against
- 9:37it. There was a lot of people for it. Eventually,
- 9:40it was put in place, the vote. But they would
- 9:44call them the boys. You know, they met and they
- 9:46would decide on the marketability. They would
- 9:49issue base. Let's say if you had 100 pounds of
- 9:51base, every year they would say, what could you
- 9:55sell? Could you sell 80? Look at the market.
- 9:57They would say 80 % of your base can be sold
- 10:00this year. So you would adjust your acres and
- 10:02things like that. And base was pounds base. So
- 10:06in other words, 100 pounds you could raise or
- 10:09you could sell 100 pounds. And then anything
- 10:12over went into what they call a pool that was
- 10:15managed by the committee. If you look at the
- 10:19numbers, it was a very stable time of pricing.
- 10:21The pricing for hops was very stable for that
- 10:25whole period of the marketing order. During that
- 10:28time, it's funny, through my life as a farmer
- 10:30here, there's been various times when the emphasis
- 10:34for the business changed. During certain times,
- 10:39it was all about yield. The highest yield gave
- 10:41you most hops to sell and the most money. During
- 10:44the marketing order, it was more just about being
- 10:48efficient in what you could produce. It was a
- 10:52stable time in the industry for sure, but it
- 10:55couldn't really react when the market went. When
- 11:00the market started to really respond after the
- 11:021980s, when we had that shortage, they... It
- 11:07just couldn't respond fast enough. And there
- 11:09was all these new people coming in that wanted
- 11:11to raise hops. And there was no provisions initially
- 11:15for new growers. Then they put in a provision
- 11:17for new growers. And then they just eventually
- 11:22just threw it out because they just couldn't.
- 11:23There was so much turmoil within there. And actually,
- 11:25Ronald Reagan got involved in eliminating the
- 11:30federal marketing order because he was against
- 11:32all these marketing orders. He was a free market
- 11:33guy. So actually, I forgot which grower it was,
- 11:37actually called the White House and talked to
- 11:40them about it. No kidding. Yeah. Wow. Yeah, it
- 11:44was quite a deal back in the day. Made it 60
- 11:46minutes. There was actually a 60 minutes segment
- 11:48done on the hot marketing order. Wow. So would
- 11:52you say that the marketing order was better for
- 11:54stability but didn't function as well for growth?
- 11:58Yeah. And shortages. What were the limiting factors,
- 12:02or I guess what were the limitations of the marketing
- 12:04order around those two issues, growth and reductions,
- 12:09and why it didn't function as well? Well, you
- 12:11know, let's say if there was a shortage or a
- 12:14crop failure somewhere else, they couldn't respond
- 12:17fast enough. Was that more a function of something
- 12:22else, or was it a function of the marketing order
- 12:23and people just perceived the issue as the marketing
- 12:26order? I don't know. I really couldn't tell you
- 12:29at the time. I mean, it was just a time in history
- 12:34when free markets and everything was the talk.
- 12:39And so the fragile market restricting people,
- 12:42some growers, especially from the outside, smaller
- 12:45guys, they were restricted. They couldn't grow
- 12:48to be an economical unit. So there was things
- 12:51like that. I mean, would that be a function of...
- 12:54the size that you came into your marking order
- 12:59allocation at? Like if you came into the marking
- 13:02order at, let's say, something substandard, would
- 13:06it be harder to grow your allocation under that?
- 13:09You can't. You couldn't grow your allocation.
- 13:11You had to go buy base. From somebody else? From
- 13:13somebody else who got out or was reducing or
- 13:16whatever. The only way you could expand was to
- 13:19buy a farm with base. You couldn't just go plant
- 13:23the hops. So then if the market grew, then how
- 13:26did they create more base? Well, what they would
- 13:28do at the saleable, you would have, let's say,
- 13:30if it had been 80%, you would raise it to 85
- 13:34% or 90 % of your base. At one point, I mean,
- 13:39I remember we had a million pounds of base at
- 13:41one point. It actually ended up being more than
- 13:43that. But so if you had 80%, that means you could
- 13:46raise 800 ,000. You could sell 800 ,000 pounds.
- 13:50Let's say we produced 850 ,000 pounds. 50 ,000
- 13:55pounds would have to go into a pool managed by
- 13:57the committee. So they only allowed the marketing
- 14:00of the 800 ,000 pounds. On the buying up farms,
- 14:04Kevin Reel sent me something maybe a couple months
- 14:07ago. I think I showed it to you where there's
- 14:09all the farms in Moxie. When you were buying
- 14:12up other farms, was it like... You buy another
- 14:1740, so now you're 80, and maybe another neighbor
- 14:20buys another neighbor, so they're 80, and then
- 14:21you buy the 80 from somebody else, or was that
- 14:23cobbling together, like, here, I just bought
- 14:2540 more acres, or 20, or was it usually fairly
- 14:28large? Some of them, I mean, some of them were
- 14:30as small as 20 acres, sometimes 40 acres. There
- 14:34was a lot of farmers that probably could get
- 14:38to an efficiency level. My father started off
- 14:41in 1950. It was 1 ,000, over 1 ,000 hop farms
- 14:45in the United States. Wow. And there was probably...
- 14:49How many are there today? 65 or something. Well,
- 14:52yeah, I think it's less than 60 now, but it depends
- 14:55how you count them. Yeah, it depends on how you
- 14:57count them. Yeah, so a thousand... Different
- 14:59entities and whatnot. When you had the hop conventions,
- 15:02it was wild and crazy. I bet. That you guys just
- 15:06checked out for a week. I remember a bit of those
- 15:08when I was younger. Yeah, over time, the purchasing,
- 15:12sometimes the biggest purchases we did... The
- 15:15first big one we did was Lee Hefflinger in Toppenish,
- 15:17and we moved to Toppenish. That was a story in
- 15:20itself. Of course, Ken Deserault and then Bruce
- 15:24and Tim Gamache. Those are the three big farms
- 15:28that actually came with facilities. Most of the
- 15:31other farms were just hop fields or raw land
- 15:35or hop fields with bays. Do you think that this
- 15:38is... Way fast forwarding, but since we're talking
- 15:40on this, you see consolidation happening or sales.
- 15:43Do you think that 10 years from now, we're going
- 15:47to be down to 50 growers or something? Yeah,
- 15:51I think we were down in the low 50s at one point.
- 15:54You know, the craft beer movement created some
- 15:57new hop farms. I remember when I came back in,
- 15:59nobody wanted in. Nobody wanted in, yeah. I mean,
- 16:02people were exiting. Yeah, yeah. Because I was
- 16:04around during the Deserol purchase and the Gamache
- 16:07purchase. And there was very few young people
- 16:10in the industry. There wasn't any. I mean, there
- 16:12was no other people interested at that time.
- 16:17I'm going to squirrel off for a moment to one
- 16:20deal. When Michael came back, it was a very tough
- 16:23time when he came back into the hop industry.
- 16:26And we were farming. I don't know. We had probably
- 16:29a couple thousand acres at a time, I suppose,
- 16:31maybe more. Yeah. And we were going on a tour
- 16:37of the farm one day. Talking about the future
- 16:39and what Michael could do. And he says, well,
- 16:41you've done it all. There's nothing for me to
- 16:42do. He likes to point out how naive I was when
- 16:47I first came back to the ranch. I thought there
- 16:49was nothing to do. He couldn't improve. There's
- 16:51nothing to improve on. And here we are today.
- 17:00Let's talk about the story of the old bull and
- 17:02the young bull. Something like that. How did
- 17:07the brewers view the marketing order at the time?
- 17:11They were not very supportive of it, let's say.
- 17:16They were involved in the discussions for sure.
- 17:19Not directly, but indirectly. So there would
- 17:22be a polling of the breweries to see what their
- 17:26interest was, growth. I mean, the growth was
- 17:28very minimal at the time. You were talking about
- 17:31the general beer market was growing, but nothing
- 17:35like the craft deal. You know, going from, we
- 17:37were down in 19, probably 80, somewhere in the
- 17:4270s. By the 1970s, it was down to less than 100
- 17:45breweries. And so it was easy to get a pulse
- 17:48of what was going on. Then you go look at today
- 17:52where we have almost 10 ,000, 9 ,000 something.
- 17:55Just in the U .S.? Just in the U .S. How many
- 17:58brewers there are globally? A lot. Yeah, I would
- 18:03think. I would think. You know, there's still,
- 18:05no matter what you say, I love the craft beer
- 18:07movement. I love, I think it's really created
- 18:09a lot of opportunities and change. But the reality
- 18:13is still only five breweries control over half
- 18:16the beer of the world. And it's just a fact.
- 18:19I presume that may grow, may be not. I don't
- 18:22know. You know, beer consumption was off, what,
- 18:252 % last year or something like that? Maybe a
- 18:27little more. Yeah. You know, going back to the
- 18:29marketing order. We had 13 people. Actually,
- 18:34I was very fortunate towards the end that I was
- 18:37able to serve on the board. I was not a voting
- 18:42member, but I was what they would call an alternate.
- 18:45So we had all these young people that were involved
- 18:49in the marketing order as an alternate if the
- 18:51main person could not attend. And that was actually
- 18:55the alternate for Bill Gasling. I got to know
- 19:00him quite well. Nice guy. Around the marketing
- 19:04order, given your history, I have no opinion
- 19:08on this. I assume that this might be a polarizing
- 19:11topic to some. Because I remember growing up,
- 19:16you being a proponent of the marketing order,
- 19:20also being a proponent of free market, which
- 19:24we can get into that in a little bit. But, like,
- 19:26what would your opinion be around the marking
- 19:27order now? Like, would that even be something
- 19:30like that even be a good thing? Because it seems
- 19:32like there's a lot of production kind of management
- 19:35happening, but in more of a haphazard way across
- 19:38the industry. You know, we tried to resurrect
- 19:41the marking order, I think, in the early 2000s,
- 19:45something like that. There was a whole bunch
- 19:47of Steve Carpenter, Mike Smith, Steve Proulx,
- 19:50all these guys. We worked together. We actually
- 19:52went to hearings to... put it back in. It was
- 19:57very controversial with many people for and against
- 19:59it. So eventually it never happened. I think
- 20:03we had a vote. I can't remember, but it went
- 20:05down. But my view of it is the marketing would
- 20:09be very difficult to implement in today's world
- 20:12with proprietary varieties. Yeah. How can you
- 20:15manage? You could not manage across the proprietary
- 20:17variety line. That's a good point. Yeah. Well,
- 20:22listening to all this. And I know we're just
- 20:24getting into things, but it makes me think when
- 20:27we're talking about how we got here, a lot of
- 20:28this isn't new. We keep repeating the same things.
- 20:31So maybe that's part of how we got here is we're
- 20:33not changing. We are changing. But I mean, I
- 20:36think, I mean, I agree with your point. We aren't
- 20:39changing, but we are changing. Well, the proprietary,
- 20:43dealing with proprietary varieties, working with
- 20:45larger farms, you know, you know, back in the
- 20:48day of a unit when that handpicking days or even.
- 20:53even with portable pickers, was 40 acres. That
- 20:57was a unit. Today, a unit is 600 acres. I think
- 21:01there's a lot of things that are different. And
- 21:03my opinion is, and feel free to debate this,
- 21:06anybody, is that we have these periods of quote
- 21:10-unquote change, but we don't really change the
- 21:15fundamentals or the base of it. So then when
- 21:18we have, when the change gets challenged, We
- 21:22revert back to a previous state because of one
- 21:28thing or another. Yeah. I would agree. I would
- 21:31agree. I mean, I think the fundamentals don't
- 21:35change. Absolutely. It's supply and demand. I
- 21:38think a lot of things back in the days when I
- 21:40first started and prior to that, post -prohibition,
- 21:44hops were used mostly in their raw form. In fact,
- 21:49exclusively at some point. So they had a useful
- 21:51life of, what, two years? Maybe. Yeah, maybe.
- 21:56Yeah, it depends. I mean, unless it's going into,
- 21:58like, a creek or something like that. Yeah. Like
- 22:00the beer style, not like the water. Well, there
- 22:03was no other option. There was not Palatine at
- 22:05the time. I'm not sure. Palatine probably came
- 22:08into play probably in the 60s, 70s, a little
- 22:12bit, I think. But even then, as a bush and other
- 22:15breweries, of course, they were still using raw
- 22:17hops until probably 80s, 90s. So once they put
- 22:21pellets in, that increased the inventory life
- 22:23of those hops. That created dynamics alone. Then
- 22:27we went to extracts. Now we're into downstream
- 22:30products. So those are the big changes where
- 22:33inventories can be your enemy for longer periods.
- 22:38Thinking about Mike's point about we haven't
- 22:41really changed, like there has been evolution
- 22:44in technology and products and things, but we
- 22:46had a discussion at Craft Brewers Conference
- 22:48with a... that is in raw material procurement
- 22:52for a brewery. Pretty good -sized brewery, and
- 22:56this individual came from procurement in a different
- 23:00industry, and he was talking about how the hops
- 23:04seem to be, like, played by completely different
- 23:08rules that don't seem to make a lot of sense.
- 23:10For example, they can calculate optimization
- 23:14based off efficiency on, like... shipping but
- 23:19they don't know they hear things like return
- 23:21to grower or margin or whatever in the supply
- 23:25chain but they don't really know what that means
- 23:27where you know really you want everybody to be
- 23:31able to be in a healthy position but nobody gets
- 23:33too big of the piece of the pie throughout the
- 23:37supply chain but there's no way to understand
- 23:40that as a it really is to your what you said
- 23:43it really is a supply and demand industry but
- 23:46to evolve it probably needs to turn into a value
- 23:51sharing industry and you can get away from these
- 23:55humongous fluctuations well i mean i think over
- 24:00history we've had other value propositions brought
- 24:03forward cost plus models we've been involved
- 24:06with it it's come and gone what happened it works
- 24:09great while the prices are high When the prices
- 24:14go low, you know, then there's... Because of
- 24:17supply and demand. Yeah, supply and demand eventually
- 24:19comes back into it. Let's dig into that a little
- 24:22bit because, you know, one of the things we've
- 24:25been throwing around, Drew, is you can't go out
- 24:28of business if you're making money. Even if it's
- 24:31a little bit. Even if it's a little bit. One
- 24:32dollar, you are a winner. So talk a little bit
- 24:36about... For any brewers listening, by the way,
- 24:37we don't just want to make one dollar. We'd like
- 24:39to, like... True. Like one total dollar? We might
- 24:44have to add a couple zeros. Well, no, because
- 24:48I think this is one of the biggest problems I've
- 24:50seen is that when the market goes crazy, everybody
- 24:54is so concerned about getting the highest price
- 24:57per pound. And everyone wants to ring the bell
- 25:00and they want the trophy. I don't disagree. You're
- 25:08talking at the grower level. Yeah. And everyone's
- 25:10concerned about their neighbor, how many acres
- 25:12their neighbor has, what they got per pound.
- 25:16So in a cost plus model or a performance based
- 25:20model, does it really not work in an up market
- 25:26or is it just annoying? No, he's saying it works
- 25:29in an up market. It's a down market. That's what
- 25:32I mean. Does it really not work in a down market
- 25:34or is it just annoying? Okay, so here's... As
- 25:37an example. So we've been involved with multiple
- 25:41companies in that venture or at least exploring
- 25:45it. And I remember we were getting ready to ink
- 25:49one and the brewer said, well, you know, I understand
- 25:54the cost plus yields this level of pricing, but
- 25:58the market's down here. So how about first two
- 26:00years, we just leave it down to cheap market
- 26:02and then we'll come back up and then go forward
- 26:06from there. Then when the prices go high, the
- 26:09brewer is very happy, you know, because they're
- 26:11kind of locked into this price line. When a price
- 26:15goes down, they want some sort of concession.
- 26:18And we've had many talks with breweries when
- 26:21the market drops way down. You know, we have
- 26:24a contract at X, and they want, you know, we
- 26:27can't compete. You know, we need cheaper. It's
- 26:31very frustrating. It's like when you look at
- 26:33the industry today. It's like people either have
- 26:36short memories or they look at the experience
- 26:40that they know and understand. Listening to this
- 26:43makes me think about, you know, right now we've
- 26:45talked a lot on this podcast and, you know, in
- 26:49discussions in the industry how brewers aren't
- 26:51contracting, especially brewers that haven't
- 26:53been in the industry for a long time. They have
- 26:56absolutely no idea what's coming. Yep. And then
- 26:59big brewers are saying the market is down, so
- 27:01we're going to ride that out right now. But it's
- 27:03just going to whiplash the other way, and it's
- 27:06going to go really hard. But it seems like there's
- 27:09always people trying to get an edge, whether
- 27:11it be growers, merchants, or brewers. I don't
- 27:14think it's intentional. I mean, it kind of is,
- 27:16but a lot of value is lost or gained. It's interesting
- 27:23you talk about the breweries and their lack of
- 27:26contracting. First of all, they may not know
- 27:28what they need. The craft movement is changing
- 27:31so fast. That is a big issue, and that one needs
- 27:35to get solved for. Better vehicles. I think some
- 27:39better vehicles, yeah. The other thing, too,
- 27:42in fact, it was funny. I was talking to some
- 27:45friends in Germany. We haven't even got into
- 27:47the presidential role yet. We're going to get
- 27:49there, but keep going. You talked to the Germans.
- 27:51It was interesting because the general conversation
- 27:53over there from the bigger merchants is that
- 27:56this thing is silver supply the inventories are
- 27:58huge we need to make all these changes and interestingly
- 28:01enough there's been activity in the market by
- 28:05the smaller mid -sized dealers and that's very
- 28:08confusing to the growers or you know it's are
- 28:12the big merchants trying to talk down the price
- 28:14so they can buy them cheap or what why are the
- 28:17smaller merchants you know buying it's just it's
- 28:20really confusing to just still just almost a
- 28:23thousand growers in germany so Coming back to
- 28:27it, it always boils down to just basic supply
- 28:29and demand. You can weave through there at times
- 28:32with different ideas, and it does change the
- 28:36course maybe temporarily, but ultimately it's
- 28:39supply and demand. You know, the breweries need
- 28:42this. Their reluctance in the breweries in the
- 28:44United States right now is based on all the negative
- 28:46comments about the acreage going down, prices
- 28:49going down. So part of it is that. lack of knowledge
- 28:53of what they need. But the other part is they
- 28:55don't want to be the one that paid. It's the
- 28:57same thing on the grower's side, but on the brewer's
- 29:00side. The grower doesn't want to get five cents
- 29:02less than his neighbor, and the brewers don't
- 29:04want to pay five cents more. Yep, that's right.
- 29:06It's a zero -sum game. One wins and one loses.
- 29:10And that's why the Crosby deal, to me, is such
- 29:13an interesting one. It's a non -zero -sum game
- 29:15where both parties benefit for the benefit of
- 29:19the collective. That's something that came up
- 29:23quite a bit at CBC when we were talking with
- 29:26brewers. Something that really resonated is that
- 29:29we have not traded any dollars at all. The idea
- 29:33is we've just leveraged each other's capabilities
- 29:35to find a way that... Both parties win. Both
- 29:39parties win. Ultimately, the brewer wins. That's
- 29:42a completely different model than most game theory.
- 29:46Win -lose, win -lose. You have to lose. That
- 29:49person's got to lose for me to gain. That's not
- 29:52a – it's got to change. I mean, sometimes it's
- 29:55unavoidable. I think a lot of times there's other
- 29:59ways to do it. I agree. Yeah. Talk a little bit
- 30:02about your free market philosophy because this
- 30:06has been a common theme as far back as I can
- 30:09remember. Well, every time manipulation – I mean,
- 30:14okay, free market and manipulation. That's what
- 30:17I would kind of equate the two titles to. So
- 30:20in a free market, what's happening right now,
- 30:23it's brutal, it's hard, but it creates an outcome.
- 30:27What's the best thing for high prices? High prices.
- 30:29What's the best thing for low prices? Low prices.
- 30:32So if you try to manipulate your way through
- 30:35the market, it eventually distorts. It may enhance
- 30:39one side more than the other side at any point
- 30:42in time. What would be an example of market manipulation
- 30:45in this industry? And I would just like to say,
- 30:48too, is when did management become termed manipulation?
- 30:54Maybe that's not what he's talking about. I don't
- 30:56know. I don't know either. Well, okay, management's
- 31:01a word. Well, no, no, no. Continue. No, no, no.
- 31:04I mean. Market manipulation. Market manipulation.
- 31:07Is that like at the dealer level? You mean like,
- 31:10well, okay. So I just got nervous. Yeah, I know.
- 31:13Well, no, like as an example, like the spot market
- 31:17for alpha in the U S and in Germany in 2024 was
- 31:23horrible. And yet all that alpha got picked up
- 31:29at real low prices. Our brewer is going to see
- 31:34a. 50 % drop in the cost of their hops? No. No.
- 31:40So is that what you're talking about? Well, that
- 31:42is one. It's called that one management. You
- 31:48always know if you're going to buy hops below
- 31:50the cost of production, you can never go wrong.
- 31:52This is how deep is your pocket. How long can
- 31:54you keep them? And I'm not necessarily blaming
- 31:57anybody for doing that. No, as we spoke about
- 31:58earlier, you know, with these alternative products
- 32:01that can store for longer periods. You have the
- 32:04option. Back in the day when you only used raw
- 32:07hops, you didn't have that option. I mean, you
- 32:10picked up hops, you better get those suckers
- 32:11out within a year or two or there was no value
- 32:14left in them. I mean, I was reading a great story
- 32:17about Esmond Meeker, you know, over in Puyallup
- 32:20and stuff, and he used to go to London every
- 32:23year after harvest to sell hops. He had to sell
- 32:26them all. And how it all collapsed within a year
- 32:30or two. It was... He couldn't get bank financing.
- 32:35It's just seen read sometime called the Hop King,
- 32:39Esmond Meeker, and how he was the largest hop
- 32:44farmer in the world. He was probably close to
- 32:471 ,000 acres in Puyallup, and it all collapsed
- 32:49within two years. Wow. Whoa. What year was he?
- 32:54Probably in the 1850s, 1860s. He was that big?
- 32:58Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. So he tossed a thousand acres
- 33:01of hops onto a ship and took it to. Well, I mean,
- 33:04I think there was there was, you know, at that
- 33:06time, there was tons of little middle merchants,
- 33:08you know, say a brewery. There's so many of them
- 33:11at that time. There was like three or four thousand
- 33:13breweries pre -prohibition, you know, probably
- 33:15that time. They all had individual people that
- 33:19would go buy the hops for them. The breweries
- 33:21were busy doing their thing. I mean, when I first
- 33:24came in, there was probably 40 merchants. in
- 33:27the United States, maybe more. They were all
- 33:29based out of the East Coast. You know, Oppenheimer,
- 33:32Warheimer, all these names were people, they
- 33:36were pop traders. And there was money made, more
- 33:39money made in the middle than there ever was
- 33:41made growing or on the... Isn't that still the
- 33:44case? Still the case. I would assume so. But
- 33:48anyway, you know, then you have, you know, a
- 33:49lot of things have happened as the proprietary
- 33:51varieties have changed the dynamics of the whole
- 33:54industry. It's one guy has them, one guy doesn't.
- 33:58Let's circle back to free market for a second.
- 34:00So why have you been such a big proponent of
- 34:03free market, let's say minus management, manipulation,
- 34:09however you want to define that? You're always
- 34:11going to have manipulation or management. That's
- 34:14the problem. One of the problems with our current
- 34:16system is you have to speculate. There's a degree
- 34:20of speculation. So if you're, say, a middle merchant,
- 34:24I'm going to use the numbers, let's say 100 pounds,
- 34:26just because it's easy math, and I have contracts
- 34:29for, you know, 80 pounds, am I going to, and
- 34:32I usually sell 100, so you're forced to speculate
- 34:35on a certain volume. And as you pointed out earlier,
- 34:40there's more and more breweries reluctant to
- 34:42buy because they think they can buy it cheaper.
- 34:44And it could be a cash flow issue. In other words,
- 34:47if I can wait till I need it to buy it, that
- 34:51merchant's going to have that volume in their
- 34:53inventory. So all these things start changing
- 34:56dynamics. Yeah, there's a lot of pressures right
- 34:59now for a brewer. I mean, forecasting, balance
- 35:01sheet, you know, all of it. And I'm sure some
- 35:04of it is like, well, I can wait and maybe get
- 35:06it cheaper, but there's also other forces at
- 35:08play. Yeah, I mean, it's cash flow. I mean, when
- 35:11we first... when I first got into farming, we
- 35:14were paid 100 % on November 1 for the crop. That'd
- 35:18be nice. Yeah. Now we're over, most of them are
- 35:23in two payments, three payments, even sometimes
- 35:25over a period of over a year, some of them a
- 35:28year, year and a half. Well, and our direct stuff
- 35:30can go on that long as well. Well, then that's
- 35:33what kind of led to some of the, I mean, the
- 35:35real struggles was we had contracts and we were,
- 35:39when we were doing some international stuff,
- 35:43The contract stated that the payment was, let's
- 35:46say, 30 days from time of delivery. Well, if
- 35:49they don't take it, you ain't getting paid. It
- 35:51was sometimes two years. We had a crop of nuggets.
- 35:54My cousin Gary Morford and I were involved in
- 35:57this. And for two years, they never took a delivery.
- 36:01Ouch. No money. That was no dirt. No flowers.
- 36:09Which is off that old Buddhist deal, no mud,
- 36:12no lotus. That's the metaphor. Love it. So I
- 36:17keep wanting to dig into this free market thing
- 36:19just because I've heard you say it for so many
- 36:22years. And I've always maybe argued with you,
- 36:27debated, if you will, about how some – Your child
- 36:32and your father, I was always wrong and you were
- 36:35always right. Yeah. It goes with my daughter.
- 36:38Goes with my other son. Well, you grew some strong
- 36:42-willed humans. True. True story. True story.
- 36:48No, but I mean, I remember I would always be
- 36:50a little bit more of a proponent around management,
- 36:52especially around some of the proprietary varieties
- 36:55that came out of our breeding program. And, well,
- 36:59we could debate how much management is good,
- 37:02and I was always generally a proponent of more
- 37:05management. And you... would definitely be on
- 37:10the other side of that and say, no, we need to
- 37:12let the market decide. That's true. We had those
- 37:15discussions, and I was probably of the same mindset
- 37:18during my earlier years. But as time went on,
- 37:22it's just there's a degree of speculation that
- 37:26is trying to be removed with proprietary rights
- 37:28because we're going to manage it, we're going
- 37:29to know what it is. But it just didn't happen.
- 37:34So I think the free market is brutal, but it's
- 37:37efficient and it's quick and it's fast. It gets
- 37:39it done. Do you think that given how many proprietary
- 37:43varieties are in domestic craft right now, do
- 37:46you feel like this market correction is going
- 37:49faster or slower than market corrections you've
- 37:54seen in the past? Well, the proprietary varieties
- 37:57are not moving fast enough. The public varieties
- 38:00move very quickly. And that's why I think you're
- 38:02starting to see maybe a little bit of interest
- 38:04in publics because the price went down very quickly.
- 38:07And the acreage changed very quickly. The proprietary
- 38:13varieties were slow to change. Like the acreage
- 38:18on proprietary moved quick. The price. Has not
- 38:21changed. Has not. Which I could argue. It has.
- 38:23It has a little bit. Yeah, but not as much. Which
- 38:26I could argue is a benefit to the supply chain.
- 38:31But, okay, the proprietors did change quickly
- 38:33in that one year or two years. But prior to that,
- 38:37it should be the messaging and the, what I'm
- 38:41trying to think of the word, were there. They
- 38:44already knew what was going to happen. First
- 38:46of all, you have a good point, sir. If I can
- 38:49attempt to summarize, would you say that the
- 38:52market signals were there and there wasn't movement
- 38:56when the market signals were there? When maybe
- 38:59some of the other varieties? moved quicker to
- 39:03adjust because the yeah that makes sense yeah
- 39:08very good summary which i think you know thinking
- 39:11through this obviously we are proponents of proprietary
- 39:15varieties and managed varieties because we have
- 39:19a breeding program and you know we're looking
- 39:22at it's a competitive advantage thing at the
- 39:24end of the day where we want to be able to provide
- 39:28novel products and this is true of everybody
- 39:30who's producing proprietary hops right now they
- 39:33want to produce high yielding novel options for
- 39:36for brewers and you could even say if like let's
- 39:41say we only make our varieties available through
- 39:45a couple channels because we want to make sure
- 39:48that we have our finger on the pulse we want
- 39:49to make sure that we can manage supply and demand
- 39:54as as well as possible and also in a way that
- 39:58gives the brewer a really great value proposition
- 40:00there's a fine line between management manipulation
- 40:05and like just competitive advantage as well and
- 40:09an attempt for a sustainable supply chain right
- 40:14yes and so i'm sure we're going to talk about
- 40:18proprietary genetics quite a bit because it is
- 40:22proprietary genetics are just a large percentage
- 40:26of the domestic craft market, right? And we are
- 40:29attempting to breed and release. And I think
- 40:32it's important to acknowledge, too, that proprietary
- 40:36genetics out of private programs are still relatively
- 40:42young in their evolution. The management of them
- 40:46in the market, right? To try and look at that
- 40:49whole situation with an open mind, I think that
- 40:53we have to acknowledge that. Well, let's go back
- 40:56to the marketing order. So, you know, let's say
- 40:59there was 100 pounds of allotment across the
- 41:04whole industry and you have 50 growers. Every
- 41:07grower has two pounds. And so when the merchants,
- 41:11it was an interesting time as far as marketing
- 41:12because when the merchants needed hops, they
- 41:15had to go, they couldn't go to one grower and
- 41:19say, I want six pounds because the grower couldn't
- 41:23do it. He only had two pounds of base. Regardless
- 41:26of quality? That was going to be my question.
- 41:28How is quality managed at that point? Well, that's
- 41:33where leaf and stem came in. I mean, that was
- 41:35before that, but you had certain parameters.
- 41:37You had leaf and stem, you had seed. It was a
- 41:39lot simpler, though. Leaf and stem, seed, and
- 41:42HSI and alpha, beta, or whatever is a lot easier
- 41:46to manage then. I mean, you only had a couple
- 41:48varieties. Really, it was all clusters. Until
- 41:52Cascade came in and Bullion and Galena and some
- 41:55of those came in. But yeah, so going back, every
- 41:58grower had a chance to be a part of the market.
- 42:02So in other words, if they needed volume, now
- 42:06a grower, a merchant could go to one grower.
- 42:09If he only needed five pounds or six pounds,
- 42:12he could go to three growers and get what he
- 42:13needed and didn't do anything for the other guys.
- 42:16That was a problem. But generally speaking, everyone
- 42:20shared equally and we all went up because the
- 42:22price differential between grower one and grower
- 42:2750 was not that big. I mean, there was a grower
- 42:31would brag if he got a half a cent. There was
- 42:33literally contracts that were half a cent better
- 42:36than the previous one. Oh, gosh. And so going
- 42:40back to proprietaries, the idea of proprietaries,
- 42:43generally the proprietary varieties are limited
- 42:46in who can grow them. Which in the beginning,
- 42:49that sounds really great. But, you know, and
- 42:52when everyone was sharing in it, it worked out
- 42:54all right. But now it's becoming a thing where
- 42:58you have, I have this variety, you don't. Zero
- 43:02of some comes back in. You know, when one hurts,
- 43:05one, yeah. Do you think, I've wondered about
- 43:08that. Do you think it is better for, let's say
- 43:11you fast forward five years from now. And everybody's
- 43:14kind of in their camps. Maybe that'll help and
- 43:17maybe it won't. But do you think it's better
- 43:19if there's this camp has these varieties and
- 43:25another has these ones? And so if you're a brewer,
- 43:29you're going to several different avenues or
- 43:33merchants, however, but you can't get it all
- 43:36in one place. But at the same time, that grower
- 43:39group or that merchant, you know, Hauser Steiner,
- 43:42and they work with these 10 growers. Chief works
- 43:45with these 20 growers and the Crosby Roy works
- 43:51with six growers. But by and large, they're kind
- 43:53of all, you know, that's who they grow for. Do
- 43:56you think that would be a good solution moving
- 43:59forward? Well, that was a solution in the past.
- 44:02Merchants, I mean, growers were generally tied
- 44:04to one merchant. When my father started off and,
- 44:07you know, early on, he was. This is interesting.
- 44:11He was a Steiner grower. He worked at Steiner
- 44:15during the offseason. He had seven kids. He couldn't
- 44:19take the winter off, so he would go and Steiner,
- 44:22and he would... take bales in, weigh bales, and
- 44:26do things like that. What I remember is he was,
- 44:27or we, he was 100 % Steiner, right? So delivered
- 44:32all the hops to Steiner and then would go work
- 44:34in the warehouse in the wintertime. That's similar
- 44:37to some of the other countries too. But then
- 44:39we became, after Steiner, we moved to Vaughn
- 44:42Horse. By then Vaughn Horse Company came in and
- 44:45they offered a nickel more. And growers were
- 44:49moving over there and we became 100%. Vaughn
- 44:53Horse Grower. What happened to those guys? They
- 44:56went bankrupt. That nickel killed them. Yeah,
- 44:59there was more than that. It was how they were
- 45:05carrying the inventory on their books. Well,
- 45:07that was part of the problem. Because you helped
- 45:10close that company down, didn't you? Well, the
- 45:13Vaughn Horse Company started off. They came in
- 45:16the United States. They were one of the very
- 45:17first ones that had the extract plant. they were
- 45:19came out of germany hexing and then they came
- 45:23in they created all the warehouses at the yakima
- 45:26chief uh union yakima chief campus where it was
- 45:30all built by um louis von horse and then oh the
- 45:35old hop union yeah okay and then uh louis von
- 45:38horse went broke hop union uh we came in with
- 45:42a grower group western hop that didn't last very
- 45:46long then we took a partner with hop union Sold
- 45:49out to Hop Union, became Hop Union. Then Hop
- 45:52Union sold off the craft brew to the group, the
- 45:58other group, the Hop Union group. House bought
- 46:01the other hops. There was a time when, during
- 46:05that really bad time in the early 2000s, I mean,
- 46:09there was, oh, man, 10, 15, 20 merchants. All
- 46:13these guys, Morris Hanbury, Lupo Fresh. There
- 46:18was a bunch of them. That all went by the wayside.
- 46:22But going back to the deal was, so you were a
- 46:24grower, most of the growers, so it's kind of
- 46:26like proprietary varieties. But the varieties,
- 46:29but back in those days, the varieties that were
- 46:31involved were universal across all the growers.
- 46:35Today you have varieties that are specific to
- 46:38a group. I mean, there's tons of proprietary
- 46:43owners out there. It's almost like a brand. In
- 46:48my view, it was kind of a switchover. We used
- 46:51to have your brand was your farm or your name.
- 46:53Well, now if you have this variety or you have
- 46:56that variety, you have to come to me to get it.
- 46:59Is that good or bad? It's okay, I guess. Sometimes
- 47:03your quality before, you would have to fight
- 47:06on quality and yield to do it. You were more
- 47:10in a group environment. Now, if the only place
- 47:14you can get variety X, well, if you're a bad
- 47:17grower, well, that's the only place you can get
- 47:20it. How long ago do you think people started
- 47:23growing for more than one? Merchant? Yeah. Oh,
- 47:27my gosh. I mean, like on a large scale. I can
- 47:32remember when I was working for Yakima Chief
- 47:34doing procurement, I would go in to meet new
- 47:38growers that didn't grow. Whereas at the time,
- 47:40and there was oftentimes, more often with smaller
- 47:43growers, that they were 100 % Haws or 100 % Steiner
- 47:47or Hollingberry or whoever they grew for. But
- 47:49that was few and far between, I guess, in 2012,
- 47:5413. So when did it really start happening? Well,
- 47:57I think that, in my view, part of the reason
- 47:59it changed is because the growers became larger.
- 48:01When you were a 40 -acre grower or a 100 -acre
- 48:03grower or a 200 -acre grower, it was easier just
- 48:07to have a relationship with one. merchant what
- 48:10year did roy start or around what did roy start
- 48:13saying okay we're going to sell them more than
- 48:15one entity generally i would say through our
- 48:19history we've probably been 80 at least to one
- 48:23merchant and then those peripheral things you
- 48:27know then we start doing direct you know that
- 48:29was a big thorn in some of the merchant's side
- 48:31and that's actually at times you were blackballed
- 48:35from being involved in the um direct sales that
- 48:39happened during the ab deal when they and as
- 48:41a bush came out and started their direct program
- 48:43there was there was uh oh yeah was that the first
- 48:48time you straight away no we straight away a
- 48:52little earlier than that but oh with cores right
- 48:54yeah of course yeah the very first prior the
- 48:57first direct brewery contract with was uh with
- 49:00cores for tetang and then of course changed their
- 49:05course, and then we ended up going with an azure
- 49:07bush with tetanang for a long time. I was looking
- 49:11at a little deal from 1985. 1985, almost 80 %
- 49:14of our acreage was in three varieties, cluster,
- 49:18cascade, and tetanang. Of which we only grow
- 49:22one now. Yeah, right. I'd like to get some clusters
- 49:26back. Yeah, they were a great hop. They were
- 49:29easy to farm. Man, I remember seeing... some
- 49:32pictures of some monster cluster vines. Like
- 49:36I remember being over in Carpenter's office for
- 49:38something or just like visiting or something.
- 49:40And there's a picture of like, it's probably
- 49:41like Tom or somebody in there with this vine
- 49:44that was ginormous. It looks like that CTZ vine
- 49:49from the Redwoods last year. We should put a
- 49:53picture of that on social media. The Redwoods?
- 49:56Because people don't know what the Redwoods are
- 49:58when they see the photo. Oh yeah. Okay. But see,
- 50:02if you look back in history, there was just the
- 50:06management manipulation of the markets. They're
- 50:11just named different things today. Where did
- 50:13these grower divides, where did they get created
- 50:18in history? Because, I don't know, this is something
- 50:22that I struggle with on an almost daily basis
- 50:25is the divides, the competitiveness. And, you
- 50:29know, I watched you and I don't know if this
- 50:31was reality or if this was just my perception,
- 50:34but my perception was you were working really
- 50:40hard to try and bridge these divides in the industry
- 50:44over the years. And my perception was, is that
- 50:47you were getting screwed over. And so I don't
- 50:50know if that was reality or not, but for some
- 50:52reason, like I have this in the back of my mind
- 50:55that I watched you give, give, give. And I'm
- 50:58sure you didn't always give. You got competitive
- 51:01and whatnot. But generally speaking, I think
- 51:03at your core, I watched you try to give and bridge.
- 51:07And then just you're somewhat constantly met,
- 51:11not by necessarily an individual or an organization,
- 51:13but it's just constantly met by these industry
- 51:16forces that made it really challenging. Yeah.
- 51:20Yeah, that's an interesting path of discussion.
- 51:24Yeah, I always felt that. As a group, we were
- 51:28stronger than we were individually. Going back
- 51:31to this marketing order, it was interesting.
- 51:33At that time, we concentrated more on the growing
- 51:36side than the marketing side because we had,
- 51:39you know, of the 100 pounds and 50 growers, we
- 51:42had our two pounds. So they had to come to us
- 51:44for the volume. So we didn't have to worry about
- 51:47marketing so much because there was nothing really
- 51:49to market. So you concentrated on growers, on
- 51:52growing, and having the highest yield, you know,
- 51:55and things like that. quality. Well, then after
- 51:58the marketing order went out, it changed because
- 52:01it was all about the marketing. It was knowledge.
- 52:05You know, you read these books about Macmillan
- 52:08Grains and some of the great grain trading companies.
- 52:10It's all about knowledge. You had to be involved
- 52:13in the growing for sure. But it was generally
- 52:15more of a marketing game then. The difference
- 52:18between what grower A got and grower B got for
- 52:22price was not the two cents or a half a cent.
- 52:25We're talking 20, 30 cents. We're talking a dollar
- 52:28when you market it. You know, it was a fight
- 52:31because the merchants would always want to buy
- 52:33low. You always wanted to sell high. So it was
- 52:36a game of kind of chicken, both sides. Did you
- 52:41enjoy that game or? Oh, I guess I did. Well,
- 52:46it was a game. So you play the game. I mean,
- 52:49that was the game. Did you enjoy the game or
- 52:51did you enjoy the relationships that were? part
- 52:55of the game. I'm a very social person. I know.
- 52:58I don't want to put words in your mouth, but
- 53:00it seems like the partnerships that you gained
- 53:03playing the game were almost more important than
- 53:07playing the game. True. Because, you know, as
- 53:11time went on, the relationships would always,
- 53:14they were good relationships, good friends, a
- 53:17lot of good friends. If you have a good, trusted
- 53:20friend, you share knowledge. That knowledge is
- 53:23the benefit of both parties. If I share knowledge
- 53:27with a friend and he shares it with me, we both
- 53:30prosper. You know, trying to do the one -man
- 53:35show doesn't work very well. So then how come
- 53:39Roy Farms is such an island for so many years
- 53:41if you had this belief that a one -man show wasn't
- 53:44the solution? How would you classify us as an
- 53:48island? Oh. It's kind of their reputation. Yeah,
- 53:53that's definitely been our reputation. We don't
- 53:55play well in sandboxes with others. I mean, that's
- 53:57been an internal motto for a number of years.
- 54:01We got burned, like you said. No longer, though.
- 54:03We got burned a little bit through that process.
- 54:07The proprietary varieties is a very classic example.
- 54:11I mean, there was a lot of places we got burned
- 54:13where we worked with other models and other...
- 54:19organizations and it didn't work in the end it
- 54:24was a zero -sum game there with our loss so we
- 54:28went to probably the more internal model an island
- 54:33I guess and I think that worked for a while I
- 54:37think times are different right yeah I agree
- 54:39yeah I mean over the long term I definitely think
- 54:42partnerships are better than than being an island
- 54:46but I could I can understand that I mean I think
- 54:49we did get burned pretty heavily in the past
- 54:52in a couple of situations. Very true. You know,
- 54:55and then I think the craft beer movement was
- 54:57really interesting because prior to that, you
- 55:00know, 80 % of the beer was in a few people's
- 55:03hands, and the products that you supplied to
- 55:07them was very limited. And then the craft beer,
- 55:10now all these varieties. I mean, do we need 300
- 55:13hop varieties in the world or two? You know,
- 55:15it's crazy. I don't know. That's a hard one to
- 55:18answer because if we're talking about flavor,
- 55:21I mean, how many flavors does one need in their
- 55:23life? Quite a lot. Right. You know, if we're
- 55:27talking about, do we need more complications
- 55:29that come with the release of every variety?
- 55:32No. But the market will tell us one way or the
- 55:37other. Yeah. Yeah. It's the cost, too. You know,
- 55:40even running a breeding program, you know, these
- 55:42breeding programs for... Many, many years did
- 55:46not produce anything, public or private. And
- 55:50the only thing that saved, I mean that saved,
- 55:52that created the proprietary variety movement
- 55:55is the craft beer movement. Well, I think it's
- 55:59mutually beneficial. Yeah. Where would we be
- 56:02if the craft beer market had not taken off in
- 56:06the proprietary space? Super alphas. Super, super
- 56:10alphas. Super duper alphas. Yeah. Or maybe we
- 56:14would have bred really awesome nobles. That would
- 56:16have been the topic. Sorry, that would have been
- 56:18the focus. We would have had lower trellis. Yeah.
- 56:24But the proprietary, with the private programs
- 56:27being super focused and on a mission, they were
- 56:32able to create new varieties that, I mean, the
- 56:36market asked for and took the proprietary. True.
- 56:41it was a very mutually beneficial thing. And
- 56:45I don't necessarily think public breeding programs
- 56:48should be pumping out varieties in the first
- 56:53place. I mean, they should do foundational ones,
- 56:57but I think the whole purpose of public breeding
- 56:59is to create germplasm and foundation material.
- 57:02True. So the rise of proprietary varieties is
- 57:07interesting. Is it a function of... the varieties
- 57:10created or was it brewery was it created this
- 57:13they're the ones that went said i want that variety
- 57:15and it went i think it was both i mean some of
- 57:19the work that i i can only speak to being able
- 57:22to you know come up with jason perrault and working
- 57:25with him and seeing how he interfaced with brewers
- 57:29and really really spent the time to sure still
- 57:33does to this day spend the time with the brewers
- 57:35to go out in the fields and find out what they're
- 57:37looking for and help educate them on what he's
- 57:40looking for from an agronomic and a pest resistance
- 57:43and drought resistant and all that sort of stuff
- 57:45and showing options and then figuring out like
- 57:47how can we do this together and that's a good
- 57:50point it's a really cool way to collaborate it
- 57:53really and it's a different type of conversation
- 57:55how many pounds you need what price do you want
- 57:57it at yeah i think it's both i think it's both
- 58:01going back to the relationship thing and you
- 58:05know you sharing information with trusted partners
- 58:09of course you are the president of the ihgc and
- 58:13you have these tremendous global relationships
- 58:17and i know there's probably one of the most respected
- 58:20people in the world in hops do you think that's
- 58:23because of the relationships that you built with
- 58:27with international and domestic what stakeholders
- 58:32or how did that all come about and how does that
- 58:36those relationships play into where your success
- 58:39in that area has come from gosh that's that's
- 58:43been a journey for a long journey but i think
- 58:47that you know for roy farms there was a time
- 58:50when we were the largest farming in the world
- 58:53and so as people would foreign visitors in particular
- 58:59would come the stop was very farmed that isn't
- 59:02so much that ain't the case today There's other
- 59:06farms that are much more advanced as far as,
- 59:08you know, their facilities and things like that.
- 59:11But there was a time when the machine I'm looking
- 59:14at through this window was the biggest machine
- 59:16in the world, the double Don Howard. No one had
- 59:19ever seen those. Now that's pretty standard.
- 59:22So there was, I mean, we were just stopped on
- 59:24the international trail that we got to know people.
- 59:29I'm pretty social. Very, very, very social. Yeah.
- 59:35So, I mean, I think I took the time to visit
- 59:39a lot of the countries. I mean, there was before
- 59:41I became, got involved with ISGC, I was still
- 59:43going to the international meetings. This is
- 59:47really a small, it was like, this is a great
- 59:50group of people. You know, we're all struggling
- 59:51with the same problem. What was your path to
- 59:54get on the ISGC in the first place? And then
- 59:59how did you get on to being a Presidente? Well,
- 1:00:02first, like, I think that's. a good explanation
- 1:00:05it's also underplaying your role in growing those
- 1:00:09relationships i mean yes we were a stop yes we
- 1:00:13were the largest or one of the largest but i
- 1:00:17think it's more important where it went after
- 1:00:19that so circling back around to my observations
- 1:00:24as a young man child You were a man child? No,
- 1:00:32when I was younger. No, my observations when
- 1:00:34I was younger and even to this day around how
- 1:00:38you manage relationships or engage in relationships.
- 1:00:41So I've watched you operate with a high degree
- 1:00:46of integrity and curiosity. And so I think that
- 1:00:52that, in my opinion, has played a huge role.
- 1:00:55I think it speaks. to how important relationships
- 1:00:59are to you, and then we definitely carry that
- 1:01:02forward, or I try and carry that forward with
- 1:01:03what we're doing. The integrity is an interesting
- 1:01:07component of that. There were times when I probably
- 1:01:11sacrificed profit for Roy Farms for the integrity
- 1:01:16of what I said and what we do. I would say 100
- 1:01:19% I've witnessed that. Well, that's how you build
- 1:01:24relationships that last. It's integrity. And
- 1:01:29so things that we would say as a farm that we
- 1:01:33were going to do, even sometimes to the detriment
- 1:01:36of the farm, we would continue that path. Once
- 1:01:40you cross that line and you do your own thing
- 1:01:43to the detriment of the other side, those relationships
- 1:01:47were very hard to ever repair. And you talked
- 1:01:51about the path. For me, I served on... washington
- 1:01:57hop commission briefly because by then we had
- 1:02:00bought western hop and you couldn't be a grower
- 1:02:03a merchant and be on a one of the commission
- 1:02:07boards at that time so i resigned from the commission
- 1:02:10i was still involved in hop growers of america
- 1:02:13and then the icc back in those days the president
- 1:02:19of the icc was the current year's general assembly's
- 1:02:27country. So in other words, if the United States
- 1:02:29was hosting the international general assembly
- 1:02:33for the ICC, the president of half guards of
- 1:02:36America would be the president of ICC for one
- 1:02:38year. And there was just this constant churn
- 1:02:42of people, you know, you could never get anything
- 1:02:44really done. So, um, and the same thing was the
- 1:02:48representative to the ICC was the president of
- 1:02:50ice, uh, of the individual country. So in other
- 1:02:54words, as the presidents of hop guards of america
- 1:02:56change they would become when they were the president
- 1:02:59they were the representative to the icc so you
- 1:03:03had all this turn of people and i along with
- 1:03:06some other ones you know there's norm bat and
- 1:03:08there was a group of people at that time but
- 1:03:10norm was one of the leaders in this we pushed
- 1:03:14for the fact that you we had a permanent representative
- 1:03:17to the icgc which created some degree of consistency
- 1:03:23Norm became the president. I replaced Norm when
- 1:03:28he retired. That was Hopkers of America. And
- 1:03:31then I was a representative to ICC for a time.
- 1:03:36And there was a lot, there's a lot of things
- 1:03:37that happened. And then, you know, I left the
- 1:03:40Hopkers of America, but I still stayed involved
- 1:03:43with the ICC. And then I actually represent,
- 1:03:47I don't represent the United States. I represent,
- 1:03:50you know, Latitude 46. So, Why is that? Why do
- 1:03:55you represent Latitude 46? It seems like it's
- 1:03:58a weird loophole there. Well, what happened was
- 1:04:03when I left, I was on the executive committee
- 1:04:06of IHCC at the time. So when I was voted out
- 1:04:10of Hopcords of America. You were voted out? Yeah.
- 1:04:15Like off the island? Off the island. Jeez, what
- 1:04:19happened there? Oh, man, some hot goss for the
- 1:04:22podcast. So anyway, so, but then by then I've
- 1:04:26always joked around that as the ICC, it's a very
- 1:04:31German organization, European organization for
- 1:04:33the United States to be involved. So I was involved
- 1:04:36in the executive committee. And so I told the
- 1:04:41committee, I said, well, I'm going to have to
- 1:04:42resign because, you know, I'm not involved in
- 1:04:44the hop course of America anymore. So I don't
- 1:04:47represent the United States. That's not a requirement.
- 1:04:51So by then, Latitude 46 joined, who was actually
- 1:04:54ADHA at that time, joined, and I represented
- 1:04:58ADHA, and they put me back on the executive committee
- 1:05:01for the ADHA. Then, you know, Maggie and, you
- 1:05:06know, Doug McKinnon, all through those years
- 1:05:07when there was representatives from Hop Growers
- 1:05:11of America, that was a big push for the manager
- 1:05:14to be the representative that gave the reports
- 1:05:16rather than the president. He had more consistency
- 1:05:19and he got to know the people. And so, you know,
- 1:05:24right now we have Maggie and Jessica who are
- 1:05:26doing a fantastic job. They're the representatives.
- 1:05:28They switch off. Sometimes Maggie's there. But
- 1:05:32Maggie is also co -chair of scientific and technical
- 1:05:35with Eric Lehmar from Germany. You know, Ann
- 1:05:39George did a fantastic job with Otmar Weingarten.
- 1:05:42But Maggie is really doing great. And Jessica
- 1:05:45does a great job too. So that's how my history.
- 1:05:49So then I became, then I just kept being involved.
- 1:05:52And when the previous president, I'm not sure,
- 1:05:56Bernard Ingerweiler from France was the representative
- 1:05:59for probably 12, 14 years, the president prior
- 1:06:03to me. And then he retired and I was voted in.
- 1:06:07So I've been there the last 10 years. And it
- 1:06:11was also during COVID. I had some technical knowledge
- 1:06:15that allowed us to create the whole online portal
- 1:06:20for ICC, you know, Zoom calls, which, you know,
- 1:06:23that was trying to get, you know, 23 countries
- 1:06:26online at one time was pretty interesting. But
- 1:06:30we got through it. What's your favorite thing
- 1:06:33about being on the, or being the El Presidente?
- 1:06:37It's not so much being the president. It's just
- 1:06:39being involved in those guys. Great people. You
- 1:06:42know, what's funny is you go over there and you
- 1:06:45share beer. Sometimes, you know, you come up,
- 1:06:50you all have the same problems. It's the one
- 1:06:52thing that's interesting I've learned is going
- 1:06:55to all these different countries, it's all the
- 1:06:56same problems. We all, as growers, have the same
- 1:06:58problems. You know, maybe the little nuances
- 1:07:01are different, but it's all the same. So it's
- 1:07:03sharing the pain. I gave Johann Pickemeyer, retired
- 1:07:08this past year. I gave a speech at his retirement.
- 1:07:14And one of the things I said was, many nights
- 1:07:18we spent many late hours drinking beer, solving
- 1:07:21the world's problems. And we'd wake up, the light
- 1:07:24of day would show us the problems are still there.
- 1:07:28We didn't solve anything. But we tried. We kept
- 1:07:32trying. It's the people. It's not so much being
- 1:07:36the presidency. It's nice, but it doesn't. it's
- 1:07:41really about the people meeting the people and
- 1:07:43there are a lot of great people in this industry
- 1:07:46brewers growers others and that's a hard thing
- 1:07:51too is that there's a lot of great people and
- 1:07:54there's a lot of pressures and in ways that relationships
- 1:07:59can be damaged a lot of ways relationships can
- 1:08:03be built a lot of ways relationships can be damaged
- 1:08:05yeah and you've done a hell of a job on the relationships
- 1:08:11and the industry i was just thinking about for
- 1:08:14those of you that don't know one less roy has
- 1:08:20all three levels of the order of the hop oh yeah
- 1:08:24which is a the thing's been going on for over
- 1:08:28600 years are you one of two or one of one that
- 1:08:31that's my question how many that's gotten all
- 1:08:34three in life because i think some people have
- 1:08:36gotten all three but Well, in the United States,
- 1:08:39there is myself and George Signorotti received
- 1:08:43the third one, but that was posthumously. Most
- 1:08:45people got it posthumously. When I was nominated
- 1:08:51and approved to get the third, the joke was could
- 1:08:54I live long enough to actually receive it, which
- 1:08:58I did. How many people have gotten all three?
- 1:09:01In the United States, there's only two of us.
- 1:09:04Germany has, I think, four or five. Are you the
- 1:09:07only one that's got all three while being alive?
- 1:09:09In the United States. Congrats. So you got the
- 1:09:12knight, the officer, and the commander. Yes.
- 1:09:17That's a pretty big deal. I guess you hang around
- 1:09:19those guys long enough. I don't think. Oh, yeah.
- 1:09:23I know a lot of people that have been hanging
- 1:09:25around those guys for a long time. Well, it's
- 1:09:28a great honor. It is. I think you downplayed
- 1:09:30it. I think it's well -deserved. Well, thank
- 1:09:33you. How much longer are you going to stay on
- 1:09:35the IHTC? Well, we've had that discussion. How
- 1:09:41do we transition? I've made it known I'm not
- 1:09:46going to do this forever, but as long as I can
- 1:09:49be relevant and effective and they're comfortable.
- 1:09:53Basically, the executive committee says, you're
- 1:09:55doing fine, so we don't want to change yet. But
- 1:10:00I suppose a couple more years. I enjoy the travel.
- 1:10:02It allows me to do other things. I'm over there
- 1:10:06at least three times a year, so that allows me
- 1:10:08to walk or do other things like that. Oh, yeah.
- 1:10:11For those of you that also don't know, you take
- 1:10:15big, long walks all over the world. Walkabouts.
- 1:10:20Walkabouts. I've been very blessed with decent
- 1:10:22feet, decent knees, and decent hips. How'd you
- 1:10:27get into that? Oh, my gosh. Ten years ago, a
- 1:10:32friend of mine overseas said, you want to go
- 1:10:34for a walk? I said, sure. And it turned out we
- 1:10:38walked up from Lisbon all the way up to Santiago,
- 1:10:42up through Portugal. Who was that? Peter. How
- 1:10:46long did that take? That doesn't sound like a
- 1:10:49walk. That sounds like a journey. It was a journey.
- 1:10:51Yeah. And Gary Morford and myself have done the
- 1:10:55whole Camino, you know, over 600 and some miles,
- 1:10:58700 miles. from France all the way across Spain
- 1:11:01to Santiago. Two tranches. Actually, three tranches.
- 1:11:06One tranche in France, half the 250, a little
- 1:11:11more, and one tranche and another 250 on the
- 1:11:14other tranche. How many bottles of wine do you
- 1:11:16go through on a given walk? Peter did the math
- 1:11:21on that once. It's a lot. The days are very structured
- 1:11:30in the sense you walk. We don't drink in the
- 1:11:34daytime because the beer is great at lunch, but
- 1:11:38an hour later when you're about three hours left
- 1:11:40to go walking, it doesn't work so well. So you
- 1:11:43usually have a beer when you get done with the
- 1:11:44walk in the day, and then we have dinner and
- 1:11:47maybe a bottle of wine maybe. You've got to get
- 1:11:51back up again the next morning at 6 and do it
- 1:11:53again. It's just a very structured life. And
- 1:11:58wine's cheap over there. Actually, just a little
- 1:12:02FYI, I am leaving next week to repeat that same
- 1:12:07path, a little shorter version with Andy. You're
- 1:12:11going to smoke him. I don't know. I would love
- 1:12:15to be a fly on the wall. Or just a fly like flying.
- 1:12:20With the walking. No, we'll have fun. Then next
- 1:12:22year, I hope, do one with Michael. And then my
- 1:12:26daughter, I don't know how we're going to do
- 1:12:27it. We'll see how things are going, if I can
- 1:12:28get away. Yeah. Oh, I checked your calendar.
- 1:12:31Yeah, I think you can probably go with your dad
- 1:12:33to go walk. I think that's fine. Yeah. Looking
- 1:12:38forward. It's a special experience. I've only
- 1:12:40walked with one person at a time, sometimes a
- 1:12:43second one. Generally just two people. Just circling
- 1:12:47back around to relationships. So if I'm hearing
- 1:12:50this right, so 25 is Andy, 26 is Mike, 27 is
- 1:12:55Liz, and then 28, of course, that's in celebration
- 1:12:59of the adoption and their name change. That's
- 1:13:03my... I accept that. There we go. Put it on the
- 1:13:10calendar. Solidifying. Your pole position. Yeah.
- 1:13:17My pole position. That's right. But, you know,
- 1:13:22it's just kind of circling back around this whole
- 1:13:24free market and managed production. Managed production
- 1:13:30is always a part of the whole thing. Now, the
- 1:13:33merchants may try to manage it by not buying
- 1:13:36to lower the price. Manipulation. You know, and
- 1:13:40the idea of the proprietary varieties was they
- 1:13:44had knowledge that we did not have. That didn't
- 1:13:49work out so well. Why do you think, I mean, why
- 1:13:54would they, why when the market signals were
- 1:13:57there in 17, I've gone back and looked, in 17,
- 1:14:00even 18, 19, there was already signals starting
- 1:14:03to kind of pop up about oversupply. Yeah, I think.
- 1:14:09Looking at this, there was always a way to fix
- 1:14:14it. And so, because craft was growing at the
- 1:14:18steady state. And then, yeah, I think 17 or 18,
- 1:14:23there was a humongous crop. And I remember we
- 1:14:28had to adjust some acres back then. But by the
- 1:14:31time you realize the pull rate is slowing down,
- 1:14:34you're already into the next crop year. But then
- 1:14:36you have, you know, Germany had like, what, two
- 1:14:39out of three really, really bad alpha crops.
- 1:14:43And so there's this generic market that took
- 1:14:46it. And then when you get into 2020 with COVID,
- 1:14:49you know, I know that there was, I can only speak
- 1:14:53for one, but we did take a reduction that year
- 1:14:58kind of across the board. You saw this dip in
- 1:15:03demand, but then all of a sudden it re -spiked
- 1:15:05back up. It didn't spike as high, but it was
- 1:15:10looking at all of the trend collectively versus
- 1:15:14the year over year, and I've been wondering why
- 1:15:17it didn't get caught earlier as well. I thought
- 1:15:22I would pose a question to you because you have
- 1:15:24different knowledge than we had, was the fact
- 1:15:28that was the change when you saw you said you
- 1:15:30saw a spike in demand. Was that for new varieties
- 1:15:33or was it for the existing varieties? It was
- 1:15:37a rebound off of the COVID. The basic varieties.
- 1:15:41Yeah, just the varieties that were being used.
- 1:15:43There was a slide on the HGA stat pack. I think
- 1:15:48Lewis Gimbel showed it on the merchant panel,
- 1:15:50not the stat pack, that showed the dip and then
- 1:15:55the rise back up the next year. And I think it
- 1:16:00sent... interesting market signals where people
- 1:16:05thought maybe we're getting right back into growth
- 1:16:06again, but it wasn't. It still never reached
- 1:16:10pre -COVID levels. Well, the beer market had
- 1:16:14started to change. Beer styles had already started
- 1:16:17to change. So there was a backlog of some of
- 1:16:20these varieties that were used for the IPAs and
- 1:16:23stuff. So that created a backlog over there.
- 1:16:26But the breweries had to use those up to... You
- 1:16:30just couldn't let them sit there. It was a complicated
- 1:16:33time, I think. But the signals were there as
- 1:16:36far as I'm concerned. Yeah, you know, it's something
- 1:16:38that you said earlier that I've been thinking
- 1:16:40about. I'm really glad we are doing this podcast
- 1:16:43today because there's things that I hadn't really
- 1:16:46thought about. But on the free market public
- 1:16:48variety piece and how it corrects faster, it
- 1:16:55corrects both in supply and price. right out
- 1:16:59of the gates because anybody can find a home
- 1:17:02for them and on the one hand that makes me really
- 1:17:05appreciate what the you know we've benefited
- 1:17:09also from growing proprietary hops here even
- 1:17:12for other entities but the the prices you know
- 1:17:16remained relatively stable it's the supply that's
- 1:17:20really dropped quite quickly but that's also
- 1:17:24to your point about you know Some of that supply
- 1:17:27could have gone down sooner where the public
- 1:17:30thing just crashed like a rock fast, fast. And
- 1:17:36people weren't willing to purchase them anymore.
- 1:17:40And everybody was getting rid of whatever they
- 1:17:43had for as cheap as possible. It's kind of an
- 1:17:47interesting dichotomy, I suppose. Yeah. Well,
- 1:17:50I agree that it's interesting because in the
- 1:17:53public varieties, it's a brutal. It was a brutal
- 1:17:57reaction to the market. I mean, very low prices,
- 1:18:00very high prices. And like I've told, and then
- 1:18:03the proprietaries, I think their hope was to
- 1:18:07modulate that adjustment so it wasn't so great
- 1:18:10and keep the prices at a more modest level or
- 1:18:15a consistent level. I mean, I always tell people,
- 1:18:20we talk about this. The market, you look at some
- 1:18:22of the prices. During the marketing order days,
- 1:18:24the price was very stable, just moving up very
- 1:18:26slowly. Not a lot, just kept going up. Then after
- 1:18:30the marketing order left, you start seeing these
- 1:18:32gyrations in price. And the thing is, like I've
- 1:18:36told breweries, many people we've met over the
- 1:18:39years and we sold hops to was, you know, in the
- 1:18:42end, folks, we have to make a profit. Now, the
- 1:18:46way this thing is going, at times... you're getting
- 1:18:50prices that we lose money. Then there's times
- 1:18:54when we get a very high price. And that average
- 1:18:58makes us viable as an industry. And I said, so,
- 1:19:02you know, how we do this, we can try to modulate
- 1:19:07these highs and lows, which is not good for anyone.
- 1:19:09It's very inefficient. You know, trellis coming
- 1:19:12out, trellis coming back in. You're planting
- 1:19:15hops, not planting them. So that's what... You
- 1:19:19know, we are involved in some of these cost plus
- 1:19:22other models that we were trying to get involved
- 1:19:24with to help modulate those gyrations. But in
- 1:19:30the end, it has not seemed to work. Well, I think
- 1:19:34one thing we haven't talked about that adds a
- 1:19:36layer of complexity to this desire to have sustainability
- 1:19:41or pricing consistency is... the conversation
- 1:19:47around new infrastructure or growth needs and
- 1:19:52i kind of have a feeling that things got a little
- 1:19:56hazy in recent years because you know there's
- 1:20:05there's one price that's required to sustain
- 1:20:07a mature or a an existing operation that doesn't
- 1:20:12have a lot of CapEx needs or that is, you know,
- 1:20:15invested slowly over time, right? And then there's
- 1:20:18a whole different price that's needed if you
- 1:20:20need to go install a new harvesting facility.
- 1:20:23And then, okay, and then, okay, if that's a need,
- 1:20:26a short -term need, then what happens to pricing
- 1:20:28on the back end of that? Should it come down?
- 1:20:32Should it stay high? Depends on inflation. Yeah.
- 1:20:37It comes back to the royalty question. Do the
- 1:20:41royalties at some point in time cover the cost
- 1:20:44of developing that variety and getting up to
- 1:20:46that point? Should they always continue? Or is
- 1:20:50it the royalty now is used to produce something
- 1:20:53new? That's a big question. Depends on why they
- 1:20:58started the... Well, the worst thing to have
- 1:21:00in the proprietary varieties is the public's.
- 1:21:02In a sense, vice versa. But more so on the public
- 1:21:06side because the lower price of the... Public
- 1:21:10varieties puts tremendous pressure on the proprietary
- 1:21:13price point. You know, I remember the workforce,
- 1:21:18Jim Boyd once said, give me 20 varieties and
- 1:21:21I will produce any beer in the world. Oh, you're
- 1:21:24talking about fractioning and recombining oil
- 1:21:27compounds. Because they all have the same deals.
- 1:21:29But what public varieties do is when the price
- 1:21:32goes down, it puts tremendous pressure on the
- 1:21:33proprietaries. Because the brewery can make the
- 1:21:37choice to... switch the recipe yeah and then
- 1:21:41as you know when you had when you had static
- 1:21:43beer brands things didn't change much because
- 1:21:47you had these hops went into it and it never
- 1:21:49changed now the beer market's changing so that
- 1:21:52allows the breweries opportunity to change to
- 1:21:55a new variety but the other the flip side of
- 1:21:58that too is that when the market goes wild publics
- 1:22:01are going it's a pure supply and demand so they
- 1:22:03are going to go crazy price but if the proprietary
- 1:22:05companies are managing that well, then they don't
- 1:22:10pay the higher price then. True. Going back to
- 1:22:14the cost plus and the variety mix question and
- 1:22:16all of that sort of stuff, it makes me wonder
- 1:22:19if the cost plus model doesn't work with the
- 1:22:25big brewers, but it should work really well with
- 1:22:29craft brewers. Small to midsize. Yeah, and here's
- 1:22:33why. Because it doesn't matter. Over a longer
- 1:22:37period of time, macro brewers, your huge multinationals,
- 1:22:43have two different regions predominantly that
- 1:22:46they can purchase from. And in all likelihood,
- 1:22:51one of them is going to be more competitively
- 1:22:55priced at any given time. So they are incentivized
- 1:22:58to play the game by diversifying because you
- 1:23:02always get lower. prices on average so for example
- 1:23:06a fascinating fact that i learned a few years
- 1:23:09ago is that the swing currently in today's acreage
- 1:23:13profile or mix alpha and aroma the german swing
- 1:23:18between a good crop and a bad crop is bigger
- 1:23:22than the total alpha produced in the u .s oh
- 1:23:26wow it's because they don't swing like the u
- 1:23:30.s might swing on alpha like what 10 above average
- 1:23:34or 10 below germany can go 30 high or they can
- 1:23:39go 50 60 low it's a massive swing and so like
- 1:23:45right now if germany has a huge crop in 2025
- 1:23:48the price is going to fall out the bottom and
- 1:23:52it doesn't matter if you have a cost plus model
- 1:23:56by and large like no big brewer is going to say
- 1:23:59yeah i'm going to lock all my volume into stable
- 1:24:02price for that region because like they're not
- 1:24:06going to buy all american hops because they can
- 1:24:09just wait for the big crop to come in over in
- 1:24:13germany and buy them for way less i never thought
- 1:24:18about that i hadn't either that's kind of interesting
- 1:24:20yeah maybe it seems like most of the times you
- 1:24:23think about cost plus on larger volumes maybe
- 1:24:26there's a limit to yeah because a craft brewer
- 1:24:29that's using an aroma variety like let's say
- 1:24:32you are a million barrel which there's only a
- 1:24:34handful of them but let's say you're a million
- 1:24:37barrel half million barrel doesn't matter craft
- 1:24:39brewery you're still only using for your brands
- 1:24:43hops in all likelihood that are produced in a
- 1:24:47certain region like if you're buying or if you're
- 1:24:50using galaxy you're not going to substitute something
- 1:24:52for that so it's only coming out of australia
- 1:24:55or if you're using cascade it's coming appreciably
- 1:24:58out of the pacific northwest somewhere and so
- 1:25:01you're kind of incentivized to stabilize your
- 1:25:03pricing where alpha is just alpha yep i mean
- 1:25:10i think you look at the market you know you have
- 1:25:12what we call varietal demand so what you were
- 1:25:16speaking to from like say galaxy as an example
- 1:25:18is from australia so there's a need for that
- 1:25:21that particular variety then you have generic
- 1:25:25that you spoke to also generic is one that's
- 1:25:28kind of the wild card you know everybody dumps
- 1:25:31if you got something extra dump it into the generic
- 1:25:32market then you start getting into i think these
- 1:25:35all these products coming out the next level
- 1:25:39of product research and product names how can
- 1:25:43you even keep up with what those are it's crazy
- 1:25:46i mean they're all generally speaking the same
- 1:25:50yeah or most of them are Like the same general
- 1:25:53idea? Yeah. There's just 50 different brands.
- 1:25:57Of the same thing. And the thing is, going back
- 1:26:00to the cost plus model, which goes back to my
- 1:26:03earlier statement about we as an industry, and
- 1:26:07that includes worldwide, we need to have a price
- 1:26:10average over a period of time to give us a profit.
- 1:26:14We have to. There's just no way. There's times
- 1:26:16when we lose money, and there's times when we
- 1:26:19make a crap load of money. And that was what
- 1:26:22keeps every grower going. It's like that one
- 1:26:25shot in golf. I'm coming back because I made
- 1:26:28that great shot. That's not what keeps me going.
- 1:26:30No. But it's an illustration and it resonates
- 1:26:33with me, I'll tell you. Absolute horrible golfer
- 1:26:37that still goes back for more pain. I'm like,
- 1:26:41no, I can make that shot again. Yeah. So, I mean,
- 1:26:45is there, I don't know, you know. Like Michael
- 1:26:49said earlier, I said, you know, free market versus
- 1:26:53managed market or whatever. I mean, I've done
- 1:26:57the full gamut from being an advocate for management.
- 1:27:01But in the end, you can never do it. There's
- 1:27:05too many players. You know, the breweries like
- 1:27:08Cost Plus because when they put it in, it was
- 1:27:11when the prices were high, so we put this in
- 1:27:13to bring the price down. And the growers... When
- 1:27:17the price goes 3x, growers are going to go, I
- 1:27:21don't like this cost plus. I can give two craps
- 1:27:25about that. When a market goes wild, if we can
- 1:27:30just chip away a nice little profit, you would
- 1:27:34never go broke? So you're advocating for a managed
- 1:27:39system? Well, I'm not advocating for a manipulated
- 1:27:43system. I'm advocating for... And maybe I'm just
- 1:27:50not completely burnt out on this idea yet, but
- 1:27:52I'm advocating for a model where it's more of
- 1:27:55a win -win and fair and sustainable. And we can
- 1:28:02focus on other issues that arise in our businesses
- 1:28:05because they always do and not have the relationship
- 1:28:08be drugged down by this back and forth, up and
- 1:28:11down. There's a certain amount of it that's unavoidable
- 1:28:14and that's fine. That's the game. That's the
- 1:28:19business. But let's try and limit that as much
- 1:28:22as possible. That's what I'm advocating for.
- 1:28:25I think there's maybe a model out there in the
- 1:28:30future. The problem that we have is we're dealing
- 1:28:33with an agricultural crop that has variability.
- 1:28:36Exactly. So why focus on trying to limit that
- 1:28:41variability in the field? But if you're constantly
- 1:28:43all over the board trying to manage all these
- 1:28:45other pieces of the business, then that variability
- 1:28:48can increase. Then you have variability on variability.
- 1:28:51So it's like at the end of the day, and that's
- 1:28:55where it's not a black and white thing, no risk
- 1:28:58versus a lot of risk or variability versus no
- 1:29:04variability. It's that at the end of the day,
- 1:29:06we are an agricultural company, and we're always
- 1:29:10going to have variability due to weather and
- 1:29:13other things, execution. I think it'd be a lot
- 1:29:18healthier if there was a little bit less market
- 1:29:21volatility. Yeah, I think it'll get to that eventually.
- 1:29:26I mean, the only other option, if you don't get
- 1:29:29to that, is massive consolidation, where you
- 1:29:33get into just a handful of players again. In
- 1:29:37some ways, I don't know how unavoidable that
- 1:29:39is, and in other ways, I don't know if that's
- 1:29:41a bad thing. That's the way it's going. And that's
- 1:29:46the way the world works is we hear that from
- 1:29:49brewers. They were expecting, you know, people
- 1:29:52are naming what we did with Crosby as consolidation,
- 1:29:56which not right or wrong or, but I mean, either
- 1:30:02way entities working together or one entity buying
- 1:30:06another or something so that you can get away
- 1:30:09from some of this perpetual whack -a -mole that
- 1:30:13we play. There's definitely going to be consolidation
- 1:30:17slash hopefully it's more collaboration in the
- 1:30:21independent space here in the upcoming years.
- 1:30:24I think the brewery, I think there's a better
- 1:30:28education of the breweries and to some degree
- 1:30:32the merchants. I think people are starting to
- 1:30:34understand there is a need, let's call it sustainability
- 1:30:36or whatever, sustainable pricing. God, history
- 1:30:42is littered with... or systems that tried to
- 1:30:47do that from England comes to mind. Prior to
- 1:30:52involvement in the EU, they had requirements
- 1:30:57that English beer and English hops, which worked
- 1:31:00out well. The farmers did okay, but there was
- 1:31:05no incentive for them to improve because it was
- 1:31:09a cost -plus model. Yeah, that is one of the
- 1:31:12tricks is how do you build I think for us or
- 1:31:15for me, it's kind of easy because that's in my
- 1:31:20DNA. It's in our DNA to always look for a better
- 1:31:22way to do it. And so cost plus model, performance
- 1:31:26-based model or not, I think I know we're always
- 1:31:31going to be looking for ways to improve. Yep.
- 1:31:33Well, I think that some of the later models or
- 1:31:36iterations of the cost plus. I think it's performance
- 1:31:39-based, isn't it? I don't know. There's a different
- 1:31:42terminology. Obviously, it's just the easiest
- 1:31:43one to use, was that you had to have a gain of
- 1:31:48efficiency over time. You couldn't just keep
- 1:31:51going, the price going higher and higher. There
- 1:31:53had to be benefit to both sides. And that was
- 1:31:55a good idea. And, you know, when the prices go
- 1:32:00low, the breweries want, you know, they don't
- 1:32:02like it. When the prices are high, the growers
- 1:32:05don't like it because you... You have to get
- 1:32:07into a mindset of the opportunity. It's kind
- 1:32:12of a static world. So as a farmer, if you're
- 1:32:16in a cost plus and you just have this static
- 1:32:18price point going forward, what's the excitement?
- 1:32:21What is the excitement? For me, it's the dirt.
- 1:32:24It's farming well. I've gotten drugged down by
- 1:32:29the toxicity of the industry over the years,
- 1:32:32generally speaking, and it's... to some degree
- 1:32:36it's it's changed my enthusiasm now with in a
- 1:32:42roundabout way with the chaos right now comes
- 1:32:45opportunity and so that's exciting the creativity
- 1:32:48that comes with the opportunity right now but
- 1:32:51i know when the dust settles it's there's going
- 1:32:55to be relationships that have been built in relationships
- 1:32:58that have hopefully not been destroyed but challenged
- 1:33:02and so that's going to be a hard one to reconcile
- 1:33:06in my brain. But at the end of the day, I can
- 1:33:11easily go back to being excited about farming.
- 1:33:15But all of the other toxicity, I do not like.
- 1:33:19Yeah, I mean, farming is something that's being
- 1:33:22involved in the land day in and day out is exciting.
- 1:33:27It's been one of the highlights of my career.
- 1:33:30I mean, those little... incremental gains, you
- 1:33:34say, oh, I can do it this way, and it works.
- 1:33:37And that takes a lot of time, too, and focus.
- 1:33:41And in the end, I don't think there is a solution
- 1:33:43to, a big solution to this problem, but there
- 1:33:46might be incremental solutions that make it better.
- 1:33:50I will say, too, one of the things we've always
- 1:33:52been good at is problem solving with brewers.
- 1:33:55Yep. And so chaos aside, there's always going
- 1:33:58to be problems, and then that's where... communication
- 1:34:02relationships problem solving those will continue
- 1:34:06on and so even if you removed all the market
- 1:34:11dynamics and i guess excitement to some i think
- 1:34:16the problem solving will always be there and
- 1:34:18that's that's exciting too yeah which goes back
- 1:34:21to i think that's absolutely right you need it's
- 1:34:25a win -win it has to be a win -win for both parties
- 1:34:27it's like this collaboration with Crosby. It's
- 1:34:30a win -win for both parties. The breweries, you
- 1:34:32know, it's not a I win, you lose deal proposition,
- 1:34:36which has been with the breweries in some cases.
- 1:34:38It's like you say, solving their problems. They
- 1:34:40have problems too. We have problems as farmers.
- 1:34:43You share the problems and you work through it.
- 1:34:45I mean, it may not be equal at times, but generally
- 1:34:48the conversation itself creates a better place.
- 1:34:54Yeah, I think. listening to this and talking
- 1:34:57through this and then you know the responses
- 1:34:59we've got from other podcasts that we've done
- 1:35:03it seems to point towards or shows that I think
- 1:35:08this show has a purpose because it's leading
- 1:35:15to more conversations and discussions about how
- 1:35:18can we do this better and we said on that first
- 1:35:21episode that Part of the goal of all of this
- 1:35:23is so that us and others in the industry, brewers,
- 1:35:28growers, merchants, can start doing this in a
- 1:35:30way that is sustainable and beneficial to the
- 1:35:37entire supply chain. It's not going to be a perfect
- 1:35:40solution. It's never going to be perfect. And
- 1:35:42that's where people get hung up sometimes. It's
- 1:35:44like, well, why even try? It's not going to be
- 1:35:46perfect, and you're not going to be able to solve
- 1:35:47everything. It's like, well, that's the wrong
- 1:35:49attitude. Perfection doesn't exist, and if you
- 1:35:53never start, you're never going to move forward.
- 1:35:56Move forward isn't moving forward to perfection.
- 1:36:00It's just moving forward. Progression. Progression.
- 1:36:05I think everyone's got the same problems, and
- 1:36:09that's why we're talking about this international
- 1:36:10component. You share problems, and out of that
- 1:36:14comes maybe incremental gains, maybe a grand
- 1:36:17solution, but generally not, just incremental
- 1:36:20gains. For everybody. Having been through two,
- 1:36:24three, how many? Three, four cycles. I mean,
- 1:36:28major cycles like the one that we're in right
- 1:36:30now. Four? What's the number? Yeah, probably
- 1:36:32four. Four. And I imagine that it's just a variation
- 1:36:36of the same thing. So in your mind, what, if
- 1:36:40anything, can we do as an industry or can we
- 1:36:44do as a supply chain to maybe come out of this
- 1:36:48with a step forward? Well, I think communication,
- 1:36:53talking about what you're doing. I think it's
- 1:36:57interesting. I was thinking back in the early,
- 1:37:00early days, the merchants did not want the brewers
- 1:37:03being growers. I mean, there was just like a
- 1:37:05firewall there. I mean, it wasn't the absolute
- 1:37:09firewall, but it was a firewall. And then I remember
- 1:37:12when, as Hop Growers of America, I was involved
- 1:37:16in the very first. hot promotion where we were
- 1:37:18bringing brewers to this area to look at our
- 1:37:22industry merchant side as well as the grower
- 1:37:25side it was very controversial at the time but
- 1:37:28i think you know things have changed a little
- 1:37:30bit so more open to that the breweries requested
- 1:37:32it so they want to know where where it came from
- 1:37:36that's how the craft so the craft beer movement
- 1:37:39has had some positive effects on on i think on
- 1:37:42our industry and the industry worldwide being
- 1:37:46involved with knowing the growers, knowing the
- 1:37:49product. And there's nuances between growers.
- 1:37:53The same variety, sure. Just where we farm in
- 1:37:56Moxie is different than, say, Topnish or Prosser
- 1:37:59or even Idaho or Oregon. They talk about terroir.
- 1:38:04Well, yeah, it's there. You can study it. But
- 1:38:08the fact is it's grower -based, it's elevation
- 1:38:11-based, it's latitude -based. One of the things
- 1:38:16we were talking about coming out of CBC was there's
- 1:38:19a person for everyone. Yeah, there is. Yeah.
- 1:38:23There's something for everybody in there. Like
- 1:38:26you say, it's not going to be a grand solution.
- 1:38:29I think that you find your place and you go forward
- 1:38:33and both sides win. It's a win. I wish I could
- 1:38:38come up with a grand solution. I don't think
- 1:38:41there is one. No. I think there are better solutions
- 1:38:44and progressive ones. Yeah. Yeah. Hopefully that's
- 1:38:47what we're doing here. Yeah. Now, I think, you
- 1:38:50know, the only question is, you know, like these
- 1:38:52varietal differences, like let's say Galaxy from
- 1:38:55Australia or it's Magnum from Germany or it's
- 1:38:59Azaka or Citra or whatever it may be from the
- 1:39:03United States or, you know, maybe also whatever.
- 1:39:05Those are always, I always struggle with how
- 1:39:08those varieties. manifest themselves into the
- 1:39:12system you know are they that good or is a brewery
- 1:39:16just looking for diversity of supply those are
- 1:39:18problems i think there's really a the studying
- 1:39:21of that is has value it's like the germans right
- 1:39:24now we had this discussion the other day is the
- 1:39:27infrastructure there's so much infrastructure
- 1:39:29been put in place in the last 10 years and the
- 1:39:34cost of it and how does it go from costing 10
- 1:39:38million to zero value And so the extraction facilities
- 1:39:44available worldwide, this thing can't get too
- 1:39:47far out of whack. It can't. We need the facilities
- 1:39:50and their balance to say between north, south,
- 1:39:54east, west. I mean, I remember it wasn't so long
- 1:39:57ago when a hot picket machine had zero value
- 1:40:00on the market, zero. I think there's probably
- 1:40:03a couple of those on the market right now. Yeah,
- 1:40:05it's probably, we're back there. Then when you
- 1:40:08start doing your financials, all of a sudden,
- 1:40:11The pick machine value was based on its replacement
- 1:40:14cost. I think we're back to that, too. Yeah.
- 1:40:18Or wait. No, the other side. Yeah, yeah, we're
- 1:40:20back to the other side of that. Mm -hmm. That
- 1:40:23was part of the challenge with some growers is
- 1:40:28they're carrying it on their balance sheet at
- 1:40:30replacement value. Yep. And essentially what
- 1:40:34that did, it allowed them to leverage up higher.
- 1:40:36Mm -hmm. Over leverage. Over leverage. But you
- 1:40:40had to to keep up with the growth too. Yeah,
- 1:40:42yeah. Well, what are your final words? Hit us
- 1:40:47with some wisdom. Proud of you guys. Oh, thanks.
- 1:40:52I think to bare your soul to the industry, to
- 1:40:57share what you consider to be not only our benefit,
- 1:41:02but benefits for the industry is good. It needs
- 1:41:06more of that. Love it. Just carrying on in the
- 1:41:09tradition of Les Roy relationships. Absolutely.
- 1:41:14Well, thanks for coming on. Glad to be here.
- 1:41:18And maybe, hopefully, you'd invite me back again.
- 1:41:21You did good. Oh, yeah. Not too many squirrel
- 1:41:23movements. A high degree of behavior. It's that
- 1:41:27little slingshot you used to hit me every time
- 1:41:29I started to talk. You're not supposed to talk
- 1:41:31about that. Yeah, you're not supposed to talk
- 1:41:32about the buzzer we had hooked up to you. We
- 1:41:35got it at Petco. Speaking of that, Andy did that
- 1:41:39once. Do you remember that? Yep. Did you ever
- 1:41:42hear about that? Andy put a dog shock collar
- 1:41:44on. I think it was like at Christmas. Well, we
- 1:41:46had gotten one for the little yapper that mom
- 1:41:49had. It was a, what was it? It was a schnauzer.
- 1:41:52And so we got a little collar you put around
- 1:41:56there. When they bark, it gives them a little
- 1:41:59tingle. It stops him from barking. So Andy put
- 1:42:01it on, and he started barking. And then it goes
- 1:42:03like, beep, beep, beep. And he barked again,
- 1:42:05and he was like, ah. Didn't that drop him to
- 1:42:08the ground? I don't think it dropped him to the
- 1:42:09ground, but it was obvious that it didn't feel
- 1:42:11good. All right. Very good. Love it. Thank you.
- 1:42:16Thank you. No dirt, no flowers. Hi, everyone.
- 1:42:21Andy here. Just wanted to chime in at the end
- 1:42:24to offer a little clarification. Yes, I did put
- 1:42:27on the dog shock collar. when I was younger,
- 1:42:30and for those of you who don't know, I am an
- 1:42:34avid animal lover, and so there was a part of
- 1:42:36me that was wondering, concerned, what our beloved
- 1:42:40Arnie Schwartzensnauser was feeling when he got
- 1:42:42shocked. So, after a little bit of liquid courage,
- 1:42:45I put the collar up to my neck, and I barked,
- 1:42:49and it beeped, and then I barked again, and it
- 1:42:52promptly shocked me. So, just chalk it up to
- 1:42:56my... never -ending quest for life experiences
- 1:43:00and curiosity. I do this so you don't have to.
- 1:43:04So at the end of the day, highly do not recommend.
- 1:43:09There you go. See you next time.