Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Luck Rankings

Transcript

NFL Luck Rankings · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: six ' five. We are part of the Action Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:22
Speaker 1: I am joined as I am in every episode by
0:27
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael bad Ray, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon,
0:35
Speaker 1: Hello Chad.
0:36
Speaker 2: How you doing?
0:37
Speaker 1: My guy brother? We've been apart for a couple of weeks,
0:40
Speaker 1: and I'm glad to be looking at you again. Dude.
0:44
Speaker 1: This is our kickoff. From now on, we are a
0:48
Speaker 1: Tuesday Thursday podcast plus Sundays when the season starts. Talking
0:55
Speaker 1: only NFL. We got Sean Kerner and Nick Giffen are
1:00
Speaker 1: addictive analyst geniuses. Today, we got Bill Barnwell on Thursday.
1:06
Speaker 1: We got division previews starting next Tuesday. We made it.
1:11
Speaker 1: We made it through the off season. We are into
1:14
Speaker 1: the football. How you feel when you come home? What's happening?
1:20
Speaker 3: I'll be back.
1:21
Speaker 4: I think I'm com back into August. So I had
1:23
Speaker 4: to do one more Vegas trip. I actually went to
1:26
Speaker 4: Austin while we had our little break, went to a
1:29
Speaker 4: bunch of comedy shows. I'm a huge comedy guy, so
1:32
Speaker 4: I went saw I don't know if you ever heard
1:34
Speaker 4: of a show called kill Tony. So it's basically it's
1:37
Speaker 4: a podcast they do like a live show and it's
1:39
Speaker 4: amateurs come up with you one minute of stand up
1:41
Speaker 4: and usually they're terrible, like they absolutely bomb. So it's
1:44
Speaker 4: probably one of the funniest shows I've ever seen, kill
1:46
Speaker 4: Tony if people have ever checked it out. In that chat,
1:48
Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, I'm losing my mind. I already told
1:51
Speaker 4: you that I'm playing way too much poker. The World
1:54
Speaker 4: Tiers of Poker had the final table. I wanted to
1:56
Speaker 4: go to that for Vegas, but I couldn't make it.
1:58
Speaker 4: But I am playing way too much poker, Chad. So
2:03
Speaker 4: it's good that football's coming back because I am really
2:06
Speaker 4: really getting all in where it's like I'm excited to
2:09
Speaker 4: do football again, but I really love poker again. So
2:11
Speaker 4: it's nice to take a break because I'm I'm playing,
2:15
Speaker 4: Like when I'm going to Vegas, I'm doing two tournaments
2:18
Speaker 4: when I go there in a couple of weeks, and
2:19
Speaker 4: I think that's gonna be it for me, until of course,
2:22
Speaker 4: next year I'm trying to go to the World Hears
2:23
Speaker 4: of Poker people, So I mean, the action never We're
2:26
Speaker 4: gonna figure that out. But I am full un addicted
2:28
Speaker 4: again to playing poker.
2:29
Speaker 1: Chad Simon Hunter the only person in the world whose
2:33
Speaker 1: punishment is exile in Hawaii so he can travel the country,
2:38
Speaker 1: going to comedy shows and play in poker. Reminder. The
2:43
Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast is proudly presented by BET three six five,
2:46
Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code
2:50
Speaker 1: action to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up
2:54
Speaker 1: offer that one dollar on any game get two hundred
2:57
Speaker 1: dollars in bonus. Betts must be twenty one or older.
3:01
Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virgina, and
3:05
Speaker 1: Iowa in the United States. Gambling Problem call or text
3:09
Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler Simon, Like I said, we haven't
3:13
Speaker 1: seen each other for a while. I was on vacation.
3:15
Speaker 1: I went away and I went to Seattle for thirty
3:21
Speaker 1: six hours with my wife, our two kids, and my mom,
3:26
Speaker 1: who lives in the Bay Area, met us, and then
3:29
Speaker 1: we went to Bend, Oregon. My sister has a house
3:32
Speaker 1: in Bend, Oregon. Freaking beautiful there. It's like summer camp
3:35
Speaker 1: up there. Have you ever been there?
3:37
Speaker 4: No, I've never been, but I've heard about like all
3:40
Speaker 4: the national parks and how beautiful it is.
3:42
Speaker 2: The highest I've been in San Francisco.
3:43
Speaker 4: So definitely on my bucket list to go check out Oregon, Washington.
3:47
Speaker 4: Just that whole area looks amazing.
3:49
Speaker 1: Two highlights from our vacation, of which there were many.
3:53
Speaker 1: Number One, my older son, who as everybody knows, is
3:56
Speaker 1: at Trexel University. He showed up, We saw him. He
4:02
Speaker 1: met medicine Newark Airport from Philly and had a massive
4:07
Speaker 1: tattoo that was a surprise to everybody. Hed it's it's
4:13
Speaker 1: on his the inside of his forearm, and and he's
4:17
Speaker 1: a you know, it's a it's a the replica of
4:21
Speaker 1: a massive weapon that is the weapon in his favorite
4:27
Speaker 1: like RPG game. You know. He goes to Drexel and
4:29
Speaker 1: studies game design. They've got a really good game design
4:32
Speaker 1: program there. His dream is to create dungeons and dragons
4:37
Speaker 1: like role playing games, and so this is the weapon
4:40
Speaker 1: that is most important and one of his favorite like
4:43
Speaker 1: adventure RPG slash video games. So that was exciting. And
4:48
Speaker 1: then my sixteen year old after the Mariners game in
4:52
Speaker 1: Seattle one night, the uber pickup was about half a
4:55
Speaker 1: block away from the stadium, Great Stadium, had a great night.
4:59
Speaker 1: Half a block away, I happened to be right in
5:01
Speaker 1: front of a strip club, and so he kept trying
5:04
Speaker 1: to get my mom to take a picture with him
5:07
Speaker 1: in front of the strip club, of which she rarely
5:09
Speaker 1: is onto these things, but she was onto this, and
5:12
Speaker 1: she tried to sneak away several times, could not. So
5:17
Speaker 1: I've got this great picture of my sixteen year old
5:19
Speaker 1: and my mom in front of dream On in Seattle.
5:24
Speaker 2: There are some good memories right there, Chad.
5:27
Speaker 1: They are good memories. You know what else is a
5:28
Speaker 1: good memory? Last summer when I was with the NFL
5:33
Speaker 1: crew in LA including Nick Giffen and Sean Kerner, and
5:39
Speaker 1: we talked about new ideas for the football season, the
5:43
Speaker 1: best idea we had of the two we had two
5:47
Speaker 1: great ideas. One bet What Happens Live with Doctor Nick,
5:51
Speaker 1: which is the best betting halftime show in the history
5:54
Speaker 1: of the universe and was hugely popular. We're bringing it
5:57
Speaker 1: back this year with Nick Giffen. The Luck Rankings was
6:01
Speaker 1: turned in to be turned out to be an incredible
6:04
Speaker 1: betting tool. Sean and Nick are on the show today
6:09
Speaker 1: to discuss Hello Sean, Hello, Nick.
6:14
Speaker 2: What's up, guys?
6:15
Speaker 1: Nick was on Mute. It's still training camp, right, We're
6:20
Speaker 1: still working it out. Fellas. We've talked about the luck
6:24
Speaker 1: rankings so much last year on the podcast and it
6:27
Speaker 1: really became invaluable. Tell us remind everybody, and if there's
6:31
Speaker 1: any way I can get credit for this fantastic I'm.
6:34
Speaker 5: About to give Nick the credit, but I'll go over
6:36
Speaker 5: the origin story first, but that the concept of luck
6:39
Speaker 5: rankings in general is something just I've been using for
6:42
Speaker 5: several years now, you know, and the idea is to
6:45
Speaker 5: look at various factors that have an impact on a
6:48
Speaker 5: team's overall record, but they're typically based on luck. So
6:53
Speaker 5: these are factors that typically are going to rest towards
6:55
Speaker 5: the league average over time. And just by doing this
6:58
Speaker 5: you can get an idea of what teams might be
7:01
Speaker 5: over or underrated at any given time. Really, So, you know,
7:04
Speaker 5: some of these factors I would look at were one score,
7:06
Speaker 5: game records, strength of schedule, injury luck, fumble luck, turnover differential,
7:12
Speaker 5: and other factors. I would mainly use it for season
7:14
Speaker 5: win totals and was you know, they were very successful.
7:17
Speaker 5: But you know, since NFL doesn't provide us a ton
7:20
Speaker 5: of data. You know, each team only plays seventeen games.
7:22
Speaker 5: This is something that could be very useful in season
7:25
Speaker 5: as well. So, you know, heading into last season, we'd
7:27
Speaker 5: tasked Nick to come up with something that was a
7:30
Speaker 5: way to sort of encompass at all and give us
7:32
Speaker 5: just luck rankings. He knocked it out of the freaking part.
7:36
Speaker 5: So I'm very excited for you know, luck rankings heading
7:39
Speaker 5: into this season. But it turned into like one of
7:41
Speaker 5: the best handicapping tools I could think of.
7:44
Speaker 1: Well, Nick, explain yourself, what did you do without getting
7:47
Speaker 1: into too many details, but explain a little bit of
7:51
Speaker 1: the science.
7:52
Speaker 2: Yeah.
7:52
Speaker 6: I think it's interesting because Sean said, you know, we
7:54
Speaker 6: don't get a lot of data from the NFL, but
7:57
Speaker 6: play by play data for third two teams over seventeen
8:02
Speaker 6: games each is a lot of data, and we can
8:05
Speaker 6: harness that data into luck rankings.
8:07
Speaker 3: You know, just a general concept.
8:09
Speaker 6: Let's say the Philadelphia Eagles have fourth and goal from
8:13
Speaker 6: the one yard line and they're trying to punch the
8:15
Speaker 6: ball in the end zone. They're a pretty darn good team,
8:18
Speaker 6: and you know, we'd expect them to punch it in
8:21
Speaker 6: a good chunk at the time. So if they don't.
8:23
Speaker 6: It's actually unlucky. It's not because they're bad, it's just
8:26
Speaker 6: because maybe it didn't work out that play. But if
8:28
Speaker 6: they had one hundred opportunities or ten thousand opportunities, they
8:32
Speaker 6: punched it in at a very high rate. And with
8:34
Speaker 6: all of that data, we can take all of that
8:37
Speaker 6: play by play and not just think of like the
8:39
Speaker 6: very common unlucky things we think of like fumble luck,
8:42
Speaker 6: for example, who recovered the fumble? But each individual play
8:46
Speaker 6: has its own element of luck or good or bad luck.
8:49
Speaker 6: And so that's what I was kind of trying to do.
8:52
Speaker 6: And you know, it worked out pretty well. But the
8:56
Speaker 6: whole idea behind it is something called an expected score.
8:58
Speaker 6: And we'll talk about that, I'm sure plenty.
9:02
Speaker 1: So we're going to and we're gonna get into like
9:05
Speaker 1: the luckiest teams too. But Simon, I want to ask
9:09
Speaker 1: your opinion right now, because I don't know about you.
9:13
Speaker 1: I was thinking about the luck rankings when I was
9:16
Speaker 1: looking at season win totals, just to see if like
9:20
Speaker 1: bookmakers were overestimating the market on things that we might
9:26
Speaker 1: have recognized as teams that had incredible luck in one
9:31
Speaker 1: score games. And now I might have a higher win
9:33
Speaker 1: total because they know the public is going to bet
9:35
Speaker 1: on this team because they did so well last year.
9:38
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say I took a lot from luck Rankings.
9:40
Speaker 4: The biggest thing I learned from it was they kind
9:42
Speaker 4: of are on par with me and you where we
9:44
Speaker 4: love to buy low. Like me and Chad, there's nothing
9:47
Speaker 4: more than we liked them buying a team that just
9:49
Speaker 4: got blown out by thirty points.
9:50
Speaker 2: Guess who else loves that? The luck rankings, So it's one.
9:53
Speaker 4: Of those where most of the times me and you, Chad,
9:55
Speaker 4: we're going to take teams that were super unlucky the
9:57
Speaker 4: previous week, right, and or the course of season two,
10:02
Speaker 4: I kind of got lucky in the sense of with
10:04
Speaker 4: these luck rankings, I realized this Giants team just ain't normal,
10:08
Speaker 4: Like there is no my system can't get a read
10:11
Speaker 4: on them. The luck Rankings was the same way, whereas
10:13
Speaker 4: like this is the luckiest team in football, they're due
10:15
Speaker 4: for regression. That regression didn't come until they played the
10:18
Speaker 4: Eagles in the playoffs, Right. They just were very lucky
10:22
Speaker 4: all season and people kept trying to go against that,
10:24
Speaker 4: being like, you know, the Giants turner as good as
10:26
Speaker 4: they are.
10:26
Speaker 2: Yes, the coaching was really incredible. But eventually they'll come
10:29
Speaker 2: back down to earth. They didn't. Same with the Vikings.
10:32
Speaker 4: Right, another team that's on this list that was very
10:34
Speaker 4: lucky last year, and yes, a couple of my biggest
10:37
Speaker 4: bets the Eagles in Week two against them Cowboys, I
10:39
Speaker 4: think it was in Week nine against them. I really
10:42
Speaker 4: picked my spots well against the Bikings. But overall, the
10:44
Speaker 4: Vikings were incredibly lucky.
10:46
Speaker 2: Right. They had so many one score games.
10:48
Speaker 4: I mean, holy crap, I'll never forget that Bills game, right,
10:51
Speaker 4: that game where it was fourth and one on the
10:53
Speaker 4: goal line. They don't get in right, Kirk Cousins tries
10:56
Speaker 4: to QB sneaky to get stuffed. Josh Allam next play
10:59
Speaker 4: on the one fumbles a snap into the end zone.
11:01
Speaker 4: The Bills lose that game of the Vikings. Like that's
11:03
Speaker 4: really stupid. But that, to me is why we love
11:06
Speaker 4: betting football. Like that's how you can win so much
11:08
Speaker 4: money betting football. Where the public will perceive things in
11:11
Speaker 4: one way, but like these luck rankings will tell you,
11:14
Speaker 4: don't look at it that way. There's other ways to
11:16
Speaker 4: look at the game. So that's probably my fair way
11:18
Speaker 4: to take away from this luck rankings. It's not the
11:20
Speaker 4: end all be all, but when these guys come into
11:22
Speaker 4: us and they say there's a huge discrepancy, right, one
11:24
Speaker 4: team is the lucky steam in football and one team
11:27
Speaker 4: is the most unlucky football team of football, and it's week.
11:29
Speaker 2: Ten or eleven.
11:30
Speaker 4: I mean, I think me and Chad ten for ten
11:32
Speaker 4: always took that really unlucky team, especially that late in
11:35
Speaker 4: the season. So to me, it's just another way of
11:38
Speaker 4: measuring football that teams will just regress to the meme.
11:41
Speaker 4: But there's always a couple of unicorns, which we're about
11:43
Speaker 4: to talk about. I'm guessing it was the Eagles. I'm
11:45
Speaker 4: guessing as the Vikings, and we just talked about the Giants.
11:48
Speaker 4: Those were very, very lucky teams last year. So to me,
11:50
Speaker 4: I just love it. It's another metric to measure football
11:53
Speaker 4: and it's just a different way of thinking. So again,
11:56
Speaker 4: both these guys know they're both brilliant, and it's just
11:58
Speaker 4: a really cool idea that these are the early days,
12:00
Speaker 4: right if you're going to keep getting better the more
12:02
Speaker 4: they put time into and keep building it. So I'm
12:03
Speaker 4: excited to see where it goes in these next couple
12:05
Speaker 4: of years.
12:06
Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting is it's not just about the unlucky teams.
12:09
Speaker 1: It is about the lucky teams and understanding. You know, Simon,
12:14
Speaker 1: you and I and Sean and Nick too. We love
12:18
Speaker 1: to bet on the team that just had a huge
12:23
Speaker 1: unlucky variance in the week before and might be the
12:26
Speaker 1: better team, and then going into the following week they're
12:28
Speaker 1: a little bit shorter favorites than they might have otherwise been.
12:30
Speaker 1: And we think there's value goes the other way too,
12:33
Speaker 1: like teams that were lucky all season long and keep
12:39
Speaker 1: getting overvalued by the bookmakers gives us an opportunity for fading.
12:43
Speaker 1: So Nick, you know you're shaking your head. Take me
12:47
Speaker 1: through some specifics from last season on teams that were
12:52
Speaker 1: overvalued consistently because of what you saw in the luck rankings.
12:57
Speaker 6: Yeah, so you know, I think Sean was actually and
13:00
Speaker 6: go over the overvalued teams, and I was gonna do
13:02
Speaker 6: the undervalued teams. But you do it whatever.
13:05
Speaker 5: Listen, Chad doesn't read outline, so I don't.
13:08
Speaker 1: I'm fucking talent man. Okay, I'm just getting back from vacation.
13:13
Speaker 1: I'm barely here right now. You guys, pretend I'm not
13:17
Speaker 1: even here. Answer, reject to the premise of every question.
13:21
Speaker 1: Just answer it the way you want to answer it. Sean,
13:24
Speaker 1: go ahead, all.
13:25
Speaker 5: Right, I'll go first. And just to clarify, when I
13:27
Speaker 5: said we don't have as much data, I was kind
13:29
Speaker 5: of referring to other sports like baseball, where every team
13:32
Speaker 5: plays every day for frigging one hundred and sixty two games.
13:36
Speaker 5: So when it comes to NFL, we just don't have
13:38
Speaker 5: as many games go off and the general public is
13:40
Speaker 5: going to see a team's record and kind of base
13:42
Speaker 5: their opinion based on that. So the luckiest team from
13:44
Speaker 5: last year was, of course the Minnesota Vikings.
13:48
Speaker 1: Who win Minnesota Vikings.
13:50
Speaker 5: Thirteen and four. Last year, they went an unprecedented eleven
13:54
Speaker 5: to oh in one score games and just one score games.
13:57
Speaker 5: In general, you know, you typically expect teams to win
14:00
Speaker 5: those half the time. You know, certainly there's teams that
14:03
Speaker 5: are you know, more talented, better coach, where you know
14:06
Speaker 5: you can maybe expect them to win those a little
14:08
Speaker 5: bit more often, but in general, most teams are gonna
14:11
Speaker 5: win those games half the time. So you could say
14:12
Speaker 5: they had about five and a half wins over expected
14:16
Speaker 5: in one score games. So the record is gonna be
14:19
Speaker 5: very misleading. They also had the third best fumble luck,
14:22
Speaker 5: fifth best injury luck. But I think a lot of
14:25
Speaker 5: people do realize that they were a lucky team, So
14:27
Speaker 5: I don't think they're a team that people are flocking
14:30
Speaker 5: to necessarily. But either way, you know, it took a
14:33
Speaker 5: lot of luck for them to go thirteen and four.
14:35
Speaker 5: It's gonna be very hard for them to repeat this season.
14:38
Speaker 5: And some of the other teams. Simon actually mentioned, you know,
14:41
Speaker 5: the Eagles were the second luckiest team. They're fourteen to three,
14:45
Speaker 5: obviously a very very good team, but they were seven
14:48
Speaker 5: to one in one score games, third best in injury luck,
14:52
Speaker 5: and they went to the Super Bowl. So I think
14:54
Speaker 5: they are a team that the public might be overrating.
14:56
Speaker 5: I mean I probably will too. I think they're one
14:59
Speaker 5: of the best in the league, but it's unlikely they
15:02
Speaker 5: will benefit from a lot of the same factors this year,
15:04
Speaker 5: so they could take a step back still be a
15:07
Speaker 5: double digit win team, but maybe not as good as
15:09
Speaker 5: we think. And then, of course the Giants. You know,
15:11
Speaker 5: they went nine and seven and won last year eight
15:14
Speaker 5: four and one in one score games, and you know,
15:18
Speaker 5: the craziest stat for the Giants, I think was they
15:21
Speaker 5: spent the fifth most time trailing in time and possession,
15:26
Speaker 5: So it's kind of a miracle they ended up with
15:28
Speaker 5: their winning record and made the playoffs. You know, some
15:31
Speaker 5: of that you can contribute to having competent head coaching
15:34
Speaker 5: and Brian Dable, but overall, you know, they were a
15:37
Speaker 5: team that went very lucky, and we should expect to
15:39
Speaker 5: regress back towards league average in those metrics this year.
15:42
Speaker 5: So it's gonna be very hard for them to repeat,
15:44
Speaker 5: you know, that winning record last year.
15:46
Speaker 1: What do you do?
15:46
Speaker 3: Though?
15:47
Speaker 1: I think the NFC is fascinating to me, and the
15:51
Speaker 1: NFC East particularly fascinating because we all know the stat
15:56
Speaker 1: every year there's a different winner for the NFC East
15:58
Speaker 1: and the Eagles. We're so dominant last year, as lucky
16:02
Speaker 1: as they were, but also they have arguably the best
16:07
Speaker 1: roster in the NFC, the best quarterback in the NFC,
16:11
Speaker 1: the best d line in the NFC, the best management
16:15
Speaker 1: in the NFC. And yet are we supposed to start
16:20
Speaker 1: fading the Giants are fading the Eagles? Are we fading
16:24
Speaker 1: the Giants? Do we have any faith in Washington? Does
16:28
Speaker 1: this mean that we now got to put our eggs
16:31
Speaker 1: in the Cowboys basket. If you're projecting a little bit,
16:34
Speaker 1: how do you incorporate luck rankings into projecting what will happen?
16:39
Speaker 6: Well, So here's an interesting little stat The whole NFC
16:43
Speaker 6: East ended up in the top nine in our luck rankings.
16:46
Speaker 6: So which one's going to regress? They all could write
16:50
Speaker 6: or But then at the same time they're all regressing,
16:52
Speaker 6: they're all still relatively to each other the same. So
16:56
Speaker 6: you know, we still should expect the Eagles to be
16:59
Speaker 6: very very strong, Cowboys to be very very strong in
17:02
Speaker 6: that division. But the Giants they actually did end up
17:05
Speaker 6: regressing during the year. I know Simon said it never came,
17:08
Speaker 6: but it actually came during the year. They started out
17:10
Speaker 6: six and one and their final record was nine to
17:13
Speaker 6: seven in one. So they went three six and one
17:16
Speaker 6: over the closing ten games. And guess what their only
17:18
Speaker 6: wins were against the Washington Commanders, who were bad, the
17:24
Speaker 6: Houston Texans who were dreadfully bad last in the league
17:29
Speaker 6: in terms of what our actual strength was from our
17:32
Speaker 6: luck rankings, and the Indianapolis Colts, who were also very
17:36
Speaker 6: very bad, one of the bottom teams in our strength
17:38
Speaker 6: from the luck rankings. So the Giants did not end
17:42
Speaker 6: the season. Well, so I just thought that was an
17:45
Speaker 6: interesting point. And one other thing, you know, Sean mentioned
17:47
Speaker 6: the three luckiest teams. They all had very winning records.
17:52
Speaker 6: You might say, well, the luck rankings, that's just saying
17:54
Speaker 6: these winning teams are lucky. You know, it's kind of
17:56
Speaker 6: used as wrong if we look just one year ago,
18:02
Speaker 6: prior to twenty twenty two, so twenty twenty one. The
18:05
Speaker 6: Buffalo Bills in twenty twenty one finished the year eleven
18:08
Speaker 6: and six. They were the last team in luck, dead
18:12
Speaker 6: last in luck despite being an eleven win team. They
18:15
Speaker 6: played more like a fourteen win team that year according
18:19
Speaker 6: to our expected score metric, but they only won eleven games.
18:22
Speaker 6: Look what happened in the playoffs. They won big in
18:25
Speaker 6: the wild card round versus the New England Patriots, who,
18:28
Speaker 6: funny enough, were also ten and seven. I think it
18:31
Speaker 6: was in thirtieth in our luck rankings. And then they
18:34
Speaker 6: lost to Kansas City on the road in overtime, which
18:38
Speaker 6: was the third strongest team in the NFL based off
18:41
Speaker 6: of our expected score. So you know, those Bills were unlucky,
18:45
Speaker 6: and they in the playoffs they played like a team
18:48
Speaker 6: that had been unlucky all year, they made some really
18:50
Speaker 6: close games. So you know, this year it so happened
18:53
Speaker 6: to be a lot of the high winning teams were
18:55
Speaker 6: the luckiest. But that's not always the case. There was
18:57
Speaker 6: a year where the Miami Dolphins were the luckiest team
19:01
Speaker 6: in the NFL and they only had seven wins. So
19:04
Speaker 6: I just wanted to throw that out there, you know,
19:05
Speaker 6: I know Sean mentioned three very winning teams. It's not
19:08
Speaker 6: going to be that way every year. So it's gonna
19:11
Speaker 6: be interesting to see what twenty twenty three has in
19:13
Speaker 6: store for the luckiest teams.
19:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, it definitely.
19:16
Speaker 4: Stands out from last year. I mean just the Vikings
19:18
Speaker 4: eleven and zero and one score games. You can be
19:20
Speaker 4: the laziest better in the world, and it's just like,
19:22
Speaker 4: how do you not fade that stat?
19:24
Speaker 2: You don't even need.
19:24
Speaker 1: A still won't they still won't know. Right.
19:27
Speaker 4: It's just one of those things where it's like, Okay,
19:29
Speaker 4: now you're in a division where again it's all hype,
19:32
Speaker 4: it's all bs. But you're expecting Jordan to Love to
19:34
Speaker 4: take another step this year, Right, He's gonna be the
19:36
Speaker 4: starter for the Green Bay. We know good their defenses,
19:38
Speaker 4: you know, a great of an offensive line, they have,
19:41
Speaker 4: and then we already talking knowlge about the Bears, right,
19:43
Speaker 4: that's that's the next upcoming team. And you have the Lions,
19:45
Speaker 4: who are the overwhelming favorites. So regression the vikings if
19:49
Speaker 4: you're just looking for a very boring, simple way to
19:51
Speaker 4: fade eight team. If a team is eleven to zero
19:54
Speaker 4: and one score games, I don't even care if it
19:56
Speaker 4: was the Eagles, right, they don't care if they had
19:57
Speaker 4: the greatest roster. Ever, the next year, you have to
20:00
Speaker 4: fade that team. It's just football does not break that way,
20:03
Speaker 4: especially for I think the previous year the Raiders, right,
20:06
Speaker 4: they were that team that was that way. I think
20:07
Speaker 4: they were seven and two or seven and three on
20:09
Speaker 4: one score games. They totally missed the playoffs last year.
20:12
Speaker 4: It's just because it's always about regression to the meme.
20:15
Speaker 4: So to me, that's really interesting that Sean brought it
20:17
Speaker 4: up that they were eleven zero one score games and
20:19
Speaker 4: the luck rankings reflected that. Now, let's go to the
20:22
Speaker 4: unluckiest teams, right, that's what people want to know about
20:24
Speaker 4: teams last year that were super unlucky. Nick, If you
20:27
Speaker 4: want to ride off the three guys or two teams
20:29
Speaker 4: that really stood out to you.
20:31
Speaker 6: Yeah, so the unluckiest team actually was the New Orleans Saints.
20:34
Speaker 6: They finished seven and ten, so it's not like it
20:37
Speaker 6: was a two win team or a three win team
20:39
Speaker 6: or four win team that was the unluckiest. It was
20:40
Speaker 6: the seven and ten Saints. They outgained their opponents by
20:44
Speaker 6: more than three hundred and twenty yards over the course
20:47
Speaker 6: of the season, which is about twenty yards per game,
20:50
Speaker 6: just under twenty yards per game. But the issue was
20:53
Speaker 6: them finishing drives and their opponents finishing drives. So the
20:57
Speaker 6: Saints had twenty five turnovers, their opponents on had seventeen
21:01
Speaker 6: and eleven to seven in the fumbles lost category, So
21:03
Speaker 6: the Saints lost more fumbles than their opponents. That's a
21:06
Speaker 6: bit unlucky. The other factor was kicking. Will Lutz had
21:09
Speaker 6: a terrible year. He went twenty three for thirty one.
21:13
Speaker 6: That's under seventy five percent, whereas the saints opponents field
21:16
Speaker 6: goal kicking over ninety percent. So just in terms of
21:20
Speaker 6: putting points on the board, when you fumble the ball
21:23
Speaker 6: and it goes the other team and when your opponents
21:25
Speaker 6: make field goals and you don't, that's a big swing
21:27
Speaker 6: throughout the course of the year. That could be a
21:29
Speaker 6: couple games right there. So you know, we actually had
21:31
Speaker 6: them slightly above a fifty to fifty team in terms
21:34
Speaker 6: of win loss records, so they probably were like an
21:36
Speaker 6: eight and a half win team, maybe closer to a
21:39
Speaker 6: nine win team, but they only won seven games. So
21:41
Speaker 6: that was the number one unlucky team. Number two unluckiest
21:44
Speaker 6: was the Houston Texans.
21:45
Speaker 1: Time out timeout for once. I want you to get
21:47
Speaker 1: the other two teams, but everything you're saying scares me
21:50
Speaker 1: because the Saints are one of those teams that I
21:53
Speaker 1: want to avoid. Like the plag I hate their coach,
21:56
Speaker 1: I hate their quarterback, I don't like their offensive, the roster.
22:01
Speaker 1: I think their defense can be very good. But every
22:04
Speaker 1: week I now think I'm going to have to bet
22:07
Speaker 1: the Saints.
22:07
Speaker 2: They got Jimmy Graham back to Chad. Jimmy Graham's back.
22:10
Speaker 1: Jesus, it's making it's already making me sick to my stomach.
22:13
Speaker 1: I'm more shick to my stomach betting the Saints than
22:16
Speaker 1: the team you were going to talk about next.
22:18
Speaker 6: It's interesting. Yeah, well that team is the Houston Texans.
22:22
Speaker 6: They just you know, they were abysmal, but they were
22:26
Speaker 6: a bit unlucky. I mean, they lost an overtime to
22:28
Speaker 6: the Chiefs, the Kansas City Chiefs. They took two overtime
22:31
Speaker 6: in the regular season in not a meaningless game, you know,
22:34
Speaker 6: not Week eighteen. They were three, six and one in
22:37
Speaker 6: one score game. So you know they were bad, but
22:41
Speaker 6: they probably weren't as bad as their record indicates. So
22:45
Speaker 6: you know, maybe a little bit of positive aggression here.
22:47
Speaker 6: But the team I'm really looking at is the third
22:49
Speaker 6: unluckiest team. That's the Chicago Bears. Dub Bears went one
22:54
Speaker 6: and seven in one possession games. If you think about
22:57
Speaker 6: was it the Eagles went seven and one in one
23:00
Speaker 6: possession games. The Bears were the exact opposite of that,
23:03
Speaker 6: going one in seven.
23:05
Speaker 3: So it's one of those things.
23:07
Speaker 6: Where you know, they had a lot of bad luck,
23:09
Speaker 6: a lot of close games that just didn't break their way.
23:12
Speaker 6: And obviously in the off season they've got a lot
23:15
Speaker 6: of good things going for them as well. Made some
23:17
Speaker 6: good moves in the off season, and you know, justin
23:20
Speaker 6: field should continue to develop. So I think there's a
23:23
Speaker 6: lot of promise in this Bears team to have a
23:25
Speaker 6: very strong year.
23:26
Speaker 1: So Simon and Matt Mitchell, you guys can appreciate this.
23:33
Speaker 1: As we were on vacation between getting tattoos and going
23:38
Speaker 1: to strip clubs, my younger kid read a tweet or
23:45
Speaker 1: something to me about how good Justin Fields was looking
23:51
Speaker 1: according to some report, And it was the first time
23:56
Speaker 1: since the end of the season, and I've been giddy
23:58
Speaker 1: where I was like, oh fuck, the Bears are going
24:01
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl and now it's confirmed.
24:06
Speaker 4: Well shocked unit coming right away and say, did you
24:08
Speaker 4: know that Fields was the eighty fourth ranked player the
24:10
Speaker 4: top one hundred in the NFL. I can't believe his
24:13
Speaker 4: peers already think he's a top one hundred player.
24:15
Speaker 1: Soon. Oh you know what it was? It was? It
24:18
Speaker 1: was Nick Bosa. This is what it was. It was
24:20
Speaker 1: Nick Bosa. Yes, said that Justin Field maybe the best
24:24
Speaker 1: athlete a quarterback he's ever seen.
24:27
Speaker 2: Yeah.
24:27
Speaker 4: Well, my favorite thing was he said he's a top
24:30
Speaker 4: five quarterback in NFL history at running the football. Yes,
24:34
Speaker 4: as he left Jalen Hurts off his list, who had
24:36
Speaker 4: three rushing touchdowns in the Super Bowl. I don't know
24:39
Speaker 4: if he knows that's a record that'll probably never be broken.
24:42
Speaker 4: So very on brand for Fields, but yeah, just I
24:47
Speaker 4: can't get any more hype chat, I can't bet any
24:49
Speaker 4: more money in the Bears. I'm done bet any more
24:51
Speaker 4: money on the Bears. But we are, like people know,
24:54
Speaker 4: we're all in on Bears one hundred and one eighty
24:56
Speaker 4: to one. They are just the hype is just next
24:59
Speaker 4: level right now for this Bear's team.
25:01
Speaker 1: All right, Sean. Based the first season of the luck
25:05
Speaker 1: rankings were revelatory. So based on based on the first season,
25:10
Speaker 1: what were the biggest takeaways? What lessons did we all learn?
25:15
Speaker 5: I mean, the main takeaway should just be that the
25:17
Speaker 5: concept of handicapping games based on previous luck is very
25:21
Speaker 5: predictive in terms of beating the market. And it just
25:24
Speaker 5: makes a ton of sense because we're all, you know,
25:28
Speaker 5: trying to filter out factors that can lead to more
25:30
Speaker 5: or less wins that aren't skill based or stable. So
25:35
Speaker 5: we're able to find those teams that are truly undervalued
25:39
Speaker 5: or truly overvalued. And you know, over the course of
25:43
Speaker 5: the season, the lock rankings went thirty nine and twenty
25:47
Speaker 5: six against the spread, so sixty percent whenever we were
25:49
Speaker 5: showing a luck camp of sixteen or greater. So games
25:53
Speaker 5: where there was a huge margin in luck rankings and
25:57
Speaker 5: based on a lot of the back testing that Nick
25:59
Speaker 5: has done this offseason, and it seems like just blindly
26:01
Speaker 5: follow them will give you roughly a baseline of fifty
26:04
Speaker 5: five percent win rate. But the more you kind of
26:07
Speaker 5: stretch it out and look for matchups with bigger discrepancies
26:10
Speaker 5: and luck or using other factors, you can really ramp
26:13
Speaker 5: up your winning percentage. So I think just the main
26:15
Speaker 5: takeaway is just using these as a core foundation part
26:19
Speaker 5: of your handicapping makes a ton of sense.
26:23
Speaker 1: This to me feels like one of those holy grail
26:26
Speaker 1: stats that should be as big over the course of
26:30
Speaker 1: time as QBR or DVOA or anything else like that,
26:35
Speaker 1: Like people should be talking about these when making any
26:39
Speaker 1: decision about the quality of handicapping a game because of
26:43
Speaker 1: what you just said. Let me repeat these two things.
26:46
Speaker 1: Sean said that fifty five percent against the spread is
26:51
Speaker 1: the floor when you use this as a big part
26:55
Speaker 1: of handicapping and including other factors to improve win rate.
27:00
Speaker 1: But at thirty nine and twenty six at a level
27:03
Speaker 1: of sixteen, when the delta between the two teams was
27:09
Speaker 1: at least sixteen, that's massive, Like it's almost to me,
27:16
Speaker 1: it's almost like I'm just using the luck rankings. Here's
27:19
Speaker 1: my question, at what point do we feel most comfortable
27:25
Speaker 1: that we have enough information for the luck rankings to
27:28
Speaker 1: be legitimate.
27:30
Speaker 6: Well, you know, I've back tested it over several years,
27:34
Speaker 6: and we're at a multi hundred game sample size of
27:37
Speaker 6: sixteen or more luck ranking difference, and overall over that
27:42
Speaker 6: that that I think it's five year sample. It's hitting
27:45
Speaker 6: at a fifty seven and a half percent rate for
27:47
Speaker 6: sixteen plush. So that is a nice large sample size,
27:52
Speaker 6: I would say, And Sean mentioned that fifty five percent floor. Well,
27:58
Speaker 6: if we go to a gap. Let's say, you know,
28:00
Speaker 6: there's thirty two teams in the NFL, so sixteen is half. Well,
28:03
Speaker 6: if we go half of that eight and then half
28:05
Speaker 6: of that four. If we just take the four largest
28:07
Speaker 6: luck differentials, so thirty one, thirty, twenty nine, and twenty eight,
28:10
Speaker 6: that hits it over seventy percent over a past five
28:14
Speaker 6: year span. So you know, like Sean said, fifty five
28:18
Speaker 6: percents of the floor. But we can find splits. We
28:21
Speaker 6: can also find luck gaps of smaller eight to fifteen
28:25
Speaker 6: let's say, where especially early in the season, if one
28:28
Speaker 6: team is really unlucky and the other team is really lucky,
28:31
Speaker 6: and they face each other. Even if their gap is
28:32
Speaker 6: much smaller in terms of raw ranking difference, the luck
28:36
Speaker 6: percentage difference is high enough that also hits it a
28:39
Speaker 6: sixty plus percent, right, so we don't just have to
28:41
Speaker 6: look at sixteen plus. So we've got tons of data
28:45
Speaker 6: that shows that this is a real thing. And the
28:49
Speaker 6: best part is the books don't know what our metric is,
28:52
Speaker 6: so they can't, you know, engineer it for us. So
28:54
Speaker 6: it's just the thing that we're going to have an edge.
28:57
Speaker 6: The biggest edges will come early in the season, very much.
29:00
Speaker 6: Pay attentional week weeks two, three, and four, because then
29:03
Speaker 6: everybody gets more data and the luck tends to balance
29:07
Speaker 6: out and that everything kind of tends to regress toward.
29:09
Speaker 3: The means, so it becomes harder. But we still find gaps.
29:12
Speaker 6: Throughout the years, so make sure you're paying attention all year,
29:14
Speaker 6: but especially jump on them early in the season.
29:17
Speaker 4: Things are changing very quick especially I talked to a
29:20
Speaker 4: lot of guys betting, a lot of bookmakers as well,
29:22
Speaker 4: that the new AI wave of these guys trying to
29:25
Speaker 4: counteract our models, it's a real thing, like they're trying
29:28
Speaker 4: to get the smartest people that get in there and
29:29
Speaker 4: try to go against our models and trying to figure
29:31
Speaker 4: out patterns. Right, that's what they're looking for. That's how
29:33
Speaker 4: they band people, right, They're looking for patterns, patterns and betting.
29:37
Speaker 4: To me, this is something great tool because it's gonna
29:39
Speaker 4: be hard for them to build an af counter of this, right,
29:41
Speaker 4: because the main point of this is Behy and Loan
29:43
Speaker 4: selling high on a lot of these teams.
29:45
Speaker 1: Well, question about luck rankings, and then I want to
29:47
Speaker 1: play a game that we used to play with you
29:49
Speaker 1: guys all the time before this past NFL season. How
29:52
Speaker 1: will luck rankings improve heading into luck two point zero?
29:57
Speaker 1: And how can everyone find these and take advantage of these?
30:00
Speaker 6: So I think the biggest thing for me is if
30:02
Speaker 6: you look at luck one point oh, we were showing
30:06
Speaker 6: all the high winning teams up the top of the board,
30:08
Speaker 6: even the San Francisco forty nine ers. We were showing
30:10
Speaker 6: it in the top ten I think in luck. But
30:13
Speaker 6: so what I realized is there was a little bit
30:14
Speaker 6: of an underfit on you know, an exponent I was
30:18
Speaker 6: using in a formula. So corrected that, but also I
30:21
Speaker 6: improved the expected score metric itself. So just another component
30:27
Speaker 6: of skill that's being taken into account that isn't luck.
30:30
Speaker 6: That'll help us tighten that fit around the actual score
30:33
Speaker 6: versus the expected score. You know, So what the score
30:36
Speaker 6: should have been in a game if luck wasn't involved,
30:38
Speaker 6: versus what the score actually was. So I've made that
30:41
Speaker 6: what should the score have been a much more accurate version.
30:45
Speaker 6: It basically is incorporating team skill a little bit more
30:49
Speaker 6: than it used to be, because I think we were
30:50
Speaker 6: underrating skill just a little bit. And even then we
30:53
Speaker 6: were still hitting at a fifty five plus percent rate.
30:55
Speaker 6: So I think it's just going to be an even
30:57
Speaker 6: better fit now.
30:59
Speaker 1: All right, listen, Luck rankings are the best go to
31:02
Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. Find the Luck rankings, Well, kick them
31:05
Speaker 1: off week one. Are we going to have them week one?
31:09
Speaker 5: I mean they would just be from last year?
31:12
Speaker 1: Still, are we gonna have the job?
31:14
Speaker 2: Yeah?
31:15
Speaker 1: Absolutely, all right, we'll have them up before week one.
31:17
Speaker 1: Last seasons, we'll have the new ones up after week one.
31:21
Speaker 1: Honest to god, They're as good a tool as you're
31:23
Speaker 1: gonna find. We're gonna talk about them all season long,
31:25
Speaker 1: and the favorites you guys have heard of, talk about
31:29
Speaker 1: game time all off season, all regular season. We talk
31:33
Speaker 1: about it constantly, the fastest growing ticketing app in the
31:37
Speaker 1: United States. I love game Time, honestly, I use it
31:39
Speaker 1: all the time, no joke. You heard me talk about
31:42
Speaker 1: being in Seattle. You heard me talking about going to
31:43
Speaker 1: the Mariners game. Where do you think I got the tickets?
31:46
Speaker 1: I went to the game Time app. I bought tickets
31:49
Speaker 1: behind a home plate around twenty rows up for me,
31:52
Speaker 1: my mom, my kid, forty bucks apiece. My mom and
31:57
Speaker 1: my kid thought I was the biggest baller in the
31:59
Speaker 1: world because I got such good seats. If you're looking
32:02
Speaker 1: to get out to a pro college game this week,
32:05
Speaker 1: or even a concert, game Time has amazing last minute
32:08
Speaker 1: deals on tickets to all of these. Just for fun,
32:11
Speaker 1: I'm going to open the game Time app right now.
32:13
Speaker 1: From my office here in New York City, I can
32:16
Speaker 1: see the New York Liberty first place in the Eastern
32:19
Speaker 1: Conference in the WNBA sixteen bucks get in price. No
32:23
Speaker 1: matter where you live, download the game Time app, get
32:25
Speaker 1: out have some fun this week. You deserve it, and
32:29
Speaker 1: you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your
32:32
Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app and
32:35
Speaker 1: enter code favorites. For twenty dollars off download game time today,
32:39
Speaker 1: last minute tickets loss price guaranteed. No joke, people, I
32:42
Speaker 1: use it all the time, all right, Nick and Sean.
32:45
Speaker 1: Before last football season, we used to have you guys
32:47
Speaker 1: come on and use your incredible predictive analytics skills to
32:52
Speaker 1: answer reader questions about what are the odds that certain
32:57
Speaker 1: things would happen? Random coincidences that you guys could take
33:00
Speaker 1: the magic out of and boil down into something completely scientific.
33:04
Speaker 1: So one hundred and twenty three years ago, this week
33:08
Speaker 1: July of nineteen hundred, King Umberto, the First of Italy
33:13
Speaker 1: was dining at a restaurant when the restaurant's owner greeted him.
33:18
Speaker 1: Both men written for a shock, they looked exactly alike.
33:21
Speaker 1: The coincidences didn't stop there. The restaurant owner's name was
33:26
Speaker 1: also Umberto. He had also been born in the same
33:29
Speaker 1: Italian town on the same day. Both Umberto's married on
33:33
Speaker 1: the same day to women named Margarita. Both had sons
33:37
Speaker 1: named Vittorio, and Umberto's restaurant opened on the day of
33:42
Speaker 1: King Umberto's coronation. The king was scheduled to repair at
33:46
Speaker 1: an event the next day and was struck by this
33:49
Speaker 1: remarkable encounter, so he invited the look alike to the show. Unbelievably,
33:54
Speaker 1: the look alike, Alberto was shot to death the next morning.
33:59
Speaker 1: Incredibly shortly after hearing the news of his lookalikes death,
34:03
Speaker 1: King Umberto was assassinated by an Italian anarchist. Theories abound
34:10
Speaker 1: about the two men. Were they long lost twins? What
34:13
Speaker 1: are the odds, Nick Giffon and Sean Kerner if.
34:16
Speaker 5: We're trying to figure out if they're long lost twins?
34:19
Speaker 5: The most important piece of that puzzle is they were
34:23
Speaker 5: born in the same Italian town on the same day,
34:26
Speaker 5: and all the other wacky shit seems pretty relevant and
34:29
Speaker 5: just largely it's a coincidence, like it doesn't matter. So
34:33
Speaker 5: based on their hometown of Turin, I was able to
34:38
Speaker 5: estimate the population is probably around one hundred and thirty
34:40
Speaker 5: thousand when they were born. Nick factored in you know,
34:44
Speaker 5: the average birth rate, the chances of having identical twins,
34:48
Speaker 5: and came up with the baseline of about six percent
34:50
Speaker 5: chance that they were twins based on those odds. But
34:54
Speaker 5: I felt like this is something where there was a
34:55
Speaker 5: ton of underlying chop, given that they actually looked alike
34:59
Speaker 5: and For the those that don't remember, we refer to
35:01
Speaker 5: underlying chop based on our what are the Odds pod
35:04
Speaker 5: about running into Rick Flair at a restaurant called the
35:07
Speaker 5: Chop House. It was presented as some wacky coincidence, but
35:10
Speaker 5: we said, actually, Rick Flair is more likely to end
35:13
Speaker 5: up at a restaurant named after one of his patented
35:16
Speaker 5: wrestling moves, so it actually increased the odds overall. So
35:19
Speaker 5: I think in this case, the fact that they looked
35:21
Speaker 5: alike was a ton of underlying chop, which I think
35:24
Speaker 5: only increased the odds that they were twins. But Nick
35:28
Speaker 5: had to introduce some conspiracies into the equation, so I'll
35:32
Speaker 5: let him go over those.
35:34
Speaker 6: Yeah, So you know, there could be some negative chop
35:39
Speaker 6: here as well, like this story could just be made up, right,
35:42
Speaker 6: Like this is this story even real? Also, these guys
35:47
Speaker 6: are you know older now? I think it's nineteen hundred
35:51
Speaker 6: and they were born in eighteen forty four. And you
35:53
Speaker 6: would think you would know if you look exactly like
35:55
Speaker 6: your king? Why didn't this come up sooner? You should
35:58
Speaker 6: know what your king looks like are How are you
36:01
Speaker 6: all of a sudden taken aback by looking exactly like
36:04
Speaker 6: the King. You've never seen a picture of him before,
36:07
Speaker 6: You've never seen him. I guess, I don't know. It
36:10
Speaker 6: just seems shocking to me that you wouldn't know what
36:12
Speaker 6: your king looks like, and all of a sudden you'd
36:14
Speaker 6: be shocked fifty six years later in your life to
36:18
Speaker 6: realize you look like him.
36:20
Speaker 3: You know.
36:21
Speaker 6: I guess One other thing for me is Umberto and
36:26
Speaker 6: maybe Umberto's father. He had eight kids with his wife
36:31
Speaker 6: and then several other kids with some mistresses. They were
36:34
Speaker 6: all documented written about Why was this potential Umberto kid,
36:39
Speaker 6: you know, the restaurant owner not documented? And there could
36:43
Speaker 6: be good reasons, not honestly, there could be valid reasons,
36:46
Speaker 6: but I found some of these as like negative chop reasons,
36:50
Speaker 6: like reasons to not believe the story a bit. So
36:53
Speaker 6: you know, Sean said, we got about a baseline of
36:55
Speaker 6: six percent. And let's just be clear, there is if
37:00
Speaker 6: I knew nothing about you, Chad, there would be a
37:02
Speaker 6: one and two hundred fifty chance you would have an
37:04
Speaker 6: identical twin.
37:05
Speaker 3: Now we know that's not the case because you know.
37:08
Speaker 4: I don't know, have you ever seen Matt Watson from Carwall?
37:11
Speaker 4: Look about Chad Carwole, Matt Watson, you look just like
37:13
Speaker 4: this guy, but.
37:14
Speaker 1: Because you can only handle one a meat, that's true,
37:18
Speaker 1: that's very true.
37:19
Speaker 6: But because we have like documentation and stuff, we know
37:21
Speaker 6: if people do or don't. But if there was if
37:24
Speaker 6: every kid was just separated at birth from their mother
37:27
Speaker 6: and we had no way of knowing, there would be
37:29
Speaker 6: a one and tw hundred and fifty chance. So that's
37:31
Speaker 6: like the floor whether this story is true or not,
37:33
Speaker 6: and we don't know or not. That's the absolute floor
37:35
Speaker 6: is one and two hundred and fifty chance. We came
37:38
Speaker 6: up to about, like I said, six percent, As Sean mentioned,
37:41
Speaker 6: I said, if there are twins in turn, there was
37:44
Speaker 6: a six percent chance of that happening. I said, if
37:46
Speaker 6: there are twins in turn, there's a very high likelihood
37:49
Speaker 6: those two are twins. So we'll keep that close to
37:51
Speaker 6: six percent. But I said, there's about a twenty five
37:53
Speaker 6: percent chance the story is just made up in punk.
37:56
Speaker 5: Yeah, so we so we arrived at six percent, which
37:59
Speaker 5: is right around fifteen to one odds, which happens to
38:03
Speaker 5: be the same odds of the Dallas Cowboys winning the
38:05
Speaker 5: Super Bowl. So if Dallas does end up winning it
38:08
Speaker 5: this year, I'm taking as a sign that the Umbertos
38:11
Speaker 5: are telling us that they were actually long lost wins.
38:14
Speaker 1: Well, listen, I can't thank you guys enough for coming on,
38:18
Speaker 1: ruining the magic of the Umberto the Emberto brothers once again,
38:26
Speaker 1: finding a way to have science just shine a light
38:31
Speaker 1: on some of our greatest coincidental stories. Also, I'm thrilled
38:35
Speaker 1: you guys came on to talk about the luck rankings
38:37
Speaker 1: highlighted teams that we should be paying attention to. I
38:39
Speaker 1: don't want to pay attention to the Saints. I'm comfortable
38:42
Speaker 1: with the Texans. I'm over the moon about the Bears.
38:45
Speaker 1: I'm fading everybody in the NFC East. I can't wait.
38:48
Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, Sean Kerner predictive analytics experts here for action.
38:53
Speaker 1: You can catch them all season long. Reminder, we are
38:58
Speaker 1: a football pod from here until the end of the
39:01
Speaker 1: Super Bowl Tuesdays and Thursdays, every week Sundays. Once the
39:06
Speaker 1: season starts, we got Dough Barnwell next on Thursday. We
39:11
Speaker 1: got division breakdowns starting on Tuesday. The Favorites Podcast is
39:15
Speaker 1: proudly presented by BET three six five, the world's favorite
39:18
Speaker 1: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code Action to get
39:21
Speaker 1: bet three six fives exclusive sign up offer. Bet one
39:25
Speaker 1: dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus.
39:28
Speaker 1: Bets must be twenty one or older. Offer available in Colorado,
39:31
Speaker 1: on New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling problem call
39:36
Speaker 1: or text one eight hundred gambler for Simon Hunter. I
39:41
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. This has been the Favorites podcast presented
39:45
Speaker 1: by Bet three six five part of the Action Network.
39:48
Speaker 1: Download from Apple, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast,
39:51
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe lotus five stars, say whatever you want.
39:54
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift until next time. W Action Network
40:04
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you
40:08
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty
40:11
Speaker 1: four seven at one eight hundred gambler