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Transcript

The ThreeDay Market Squeeze · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome back to Spy Trader , the podcast that helps you navigate market volatility even when the coffee hasn't kicked in yet .
• 0:07
  I'm your host , Professor Moneybags , and it is 5 am on Sunday , November 23rd , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:15
  We are heading into a tricky , volatile , and compressed trading week , thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday , which shuts down the markets on Thursday and gives us a halfday on Friday for Black Friday shopping .
• 0:27
  Traders , get ready .
• 0:29
  The entire week's worth of economic data and major earnings is crammed into just three highimpact days , primarily centered around Wednesday .
• 0:38
  The overall market is facing a clash of forces .
• 0:41
  Technically , the S&P 500 , tracked by ETFs like SPY , is showing weakness , having broken below key support levels .
• 0:51
  The shortterm trend is bearish , but market direction is going to be driven almost entirely by catalysts this week .
• 0:58
  The broad market , represented by QQQ and SPY , sits at neutral to negative , with exceptionally high volatility expected .
• 1:06
  Our focus day is Wednesday , November 26th .
• 1:10
  Leading up to that , we get the Producer Price Index , or PPI , on Tuesday .
• 1:15
  If the PPI is hotter than expected , it suggests rising cost pressures , which is negative for corporate margins and raises fears of hawkish Fed action , negatively impacting both stocks and bonds .
• 1:29
  But the real heavyweight is Wednesday's delayed Retail Sales report .
• 1:33
  If sales are surprisingly strong , it cheers consumer confidence , but ironically , it reduces the probability of a Fed rate cut , making it potentially negative for stocks .
• 1:45
  Conversely , weak Retail Sales reinforces economic slowdown fears , which actually accelerates ratecut expectations .
• 1:53
  This uncertainty means the market will likely be stuck in a holding pattern until Wednesday afternoon .
• 2:00
  The technology sector , tracked by QQQ and XLK , will be purely eventdriven .
• 2:06
  Valuations are stretched , and Tech stocks have already led some of the recent weakness .
• 2:11
  The pressure is on for highgrowth software and cloud companies reporting this week .
• 2:16
  We are watching core enterprise software bellwethers like Salesforce , reporting Wednesday after the close , and the critical cybersecurity names , CrowdStrike and Zscaler , both reporting Tuesday after hours .
• 2:30
  If these companies show continued strong subscription growth , it could provide a muchneeded lift to the QQQ , despite macro concerns .
• 2:39
  In the consumer space , the week culminates with Black Friday .
• 2:43
  Online sales are projected to hit between 10.8 and 11.9 billion this year .
• 2:50
  We favor companies positioned to capture that ecommerce spending , specifically Amazon , which is the largest holding in the Consumer Discretionary ETF , XLY .
• 3:02
  Now for our trade recommendations .
• 3:04
  Given the high risk associated with market data on Wednesday , we recommend defined risk strategies for the broad indexes .
• 3:12
  Hold or use protective puts on ETFs like QQQ to hedge against a macrodriven selloff .
• 3:19
  For tactical growth , we recommend focusing on the secular trends in cybersecurity .
• 3:26
  We like the potential for long call spreads on names like CRWD or ZS , provided their postearnings reports confirm strong billing and subscription growth .
• 3:36
  Their growth stories are often less tied to macro cyclicality .
• 3:40
  Finally , for defense and rates , we recommend building a small position in the bond ETF , TLT , ahead of Wednesday's Retail Sales data .
• 3:52
  The current implied probability of a Fed rate cut is already high at 71% , and a surprisingly weak economic report would accelerate that ratecut narrative , acting as a strong positive catalyst for longterm bond prices .
• 4:06
  That's all the time we have for this highly condensed trading week .
• 4:10
  Good luck , manage your risk , and enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday .
• 4:15
  Until next time , I'm Professor Moneybags , and you've been listening to Spy Trader .