Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 272 - 5/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 272 - 5/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 272 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:26
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:29
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:37
  Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena
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  guys, as the early portion of our week rolls on.
• 0:44
  We got a lot of sports betting talk here for you lined up
• 0:46
  today, including a four pack of sweats.
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  I'm excited to share with you going to dabble in some little
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  NBA postseason. I do have a play in one of the
• 0:54
  NBA playoff games here tonight. We got Pacers Cavs with the Cavs
• 0:57
  down one O and a lot of injuries.
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  We got warriors T wolves series tipping off.
• 1:01
  Also some thoughts on some buy low opportunities for a couple
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  of big favorites that lost their series openers last night and
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  some really good numbers to shop around and maybe buy low on
• 1:12
  these teams at a better price to come back and win their series.
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  So stay tuned for that. A lot of NBA betting talk today
• 1:17
  and then we're going to get right back to some Major League
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  Baseball 3 pack overall, relatively modest, relatively
• 1:24
  expensive favorites here tonight.
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  So we're going to see if we can go 2 and one or better.
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  He got a winning night 4 pack overall.
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  Let's try to get two or more and again grind out a profit, which
• 1:34
  is always our goal. I also want to remind you guys
• 1:37
  that it is a Tuesday. So if you are unaware, every
• 1:40
  Tuesday, I've been doing it for a while now.
• 1:41
  At this point, it used to be the college basketball Rhythm live
• 1:44
  stream. Well, now it's the Rhythm Lab.
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  Every Tuesday, 4:00 PM Eastern Time, I host the Rhythm Lab on
• 1:50
  Twitter. You can hop right in, it's free.
• 1:52
  You can ask any questions you might have about Rhythm or
• 1:55
  questions about the games. Might even hit on a few player
• 1:57
  props. I don't do a ton of player prop
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  betting, but I try to highlight at least a few that are some of
• 2:03
  the top system matches at Rhythm.
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  So I hope to see you guys at 4:00 Eastern Time today.
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  As always, you can follow me on Twitter at Josh under score
• 2:11
  Insights. Right at 4:00, you'll see a
• 2:13
  little icon that goes live. You click that, boom, you'll be
• 2:16
  able to jump right in. Ask questions, get your thoughts
• 2:19
  out there and your questions answered, of course, about
• 2:21
  Rhythm. Now before we dive in our
• 2:23
  sweatshirt today, guys, looking toward last night, Bit of a
• 2:26
  frustrating night. 2 and 2 -, 0.88 units.
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  Did have a couple good hits in baseball, went two and one got
• 2:33
  the Dodgers, who came through for the team.
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  I probably should have laid the 1 1/2 there.
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  I even mentioned that in a tweet, how it's actually been
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  better on the run line taking those favorites -200 or more
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  than the regular money line. But it did get a little close.
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  Seven one game, then it went to 7 to 4, but Dodgers came
• 2:48
  through. The Cubbies came through again.
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  I tell you what, guys, something, something's in the
• 2:52
  water in Chicago Cubs. Cubs are a pretty good team and
• 2:56
  pretty fun team to sweat this year.
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  They got the bats going late and really rolled the Giants and it
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  was 9 to 2. The frustrating ones, the D
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  backs, they had a one nothing lead and they had the 8th
• 3:06
  inning. They came back and made it 5 to
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  4. Then they were caught stealing
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  in the ninth. Came up short 5 to 4.
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  But the one that was really annoying and pissed me off, if I
• 3:14
  can be totally straight with you guys, was the Oklahoma City
• 3:17
  Thunder. Not only do they lose the game
• 3:19
  straight up, but we nailed that cap.
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  We got a -, 9 1/2 then up closing at -10 1/2.
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  So we got a full point of CLV closing line value.
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  This is one of those games where betting is super frustrating.
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  We did our part. We diagnosed the line move, the
• 3:34
  shar lay. We got a nine and a half.
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  It closed 10 1/2. We did our part OK C completely
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  crumbled down the stretch. There are multiple points in the
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  game where they were up 10, up 12, and you're like, OK, they're
• 3:45
  going to cover this number. They completely implode down the
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  stretch. And when it was like late, like
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  a minute or two left and it was like a four point game, five
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  point game, I said screw this. I'm not going to win my 10 1/2
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  or my 9 1/2. I should say, you know, I'd
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  rather have, I'd rather have, OK, C lose the damn game because
• 4:01
  he let me down so much tonight. Screw you, lose out, right?
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  I'll lose my bet anyway. You deserve to lose because you
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  pissed me off. So there there's some of my my
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  gambler thoughts there with you as gambling, of course, is even
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  if we don't try to let it be. It isn't an emotional endeavor,
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  but OKC losing outright Gordon hitting that three there to win
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  it at the end. That was that was pretty
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  annoying. So as I mentioned today, we'll
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  turn the page talk some NBA. I want to start off with
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  baseball and then I'll give you my play for the one of the NBA
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  games tonight. And then I'm also talk about
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  some shop for the best line by low futures for a couple of
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  series that got off the starts that we probably did not expect.
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  So let's start off with some baseball cuz baseball is who was
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  it? Pedro Martinez said been very,
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  very good to me having a decent year.
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  Let's see if we can keep it going now.
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  First bet on the board for me. Let's go to right back where we
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  sweat a game last night, Wrigley Field, San Francisco Giants at
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  the Chicago Cubs. Let's set the stage talk line
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  movement and I will give you my play for this one.
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  So Cubs are now 22 and 14. They won last night's series
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  opener for US nine to two took care of business as a -, 175
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  home favorite. For the rematch tonight, the G
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  men who are also 22 and 14, they're going to start the
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  ageless wonder Justin Verlander O and two 4.38 ERA.
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  You know, the Cubbies are going to go with the fellow righty
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  Colin Ray, who's been really good two and O 1.46 ERA.
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  So what have you seen across the market?
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  This game opened Cubs around a -, 145 home favorite with the
• 5:30
  Giants are on a + 125 Rd. dog and initially we saw this steam
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  get the Cubs all the way up. So like right now they're up to
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  -150 at Bet MGM. That's your best price.
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  Other books like -155 -, 160, but I think they tipped off that
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  one book as close to like -170 earlier today.
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  So there was a ton of steam that hit Chicago 'cause that line
• 5:52
  move in their favor there a little bit of buyback on San
• 5:54
  Fran, but still I'm going to ride the the Cubs in this one.
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  Again. I got a -, 150 at Bet MGM.
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  Other books are closer to -155 So make sure you shop for the
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  best line, have those multiple outs.
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  But sticking back to the handicap here, aside from the
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  line movement toward Chicago, pretty good bet splits.
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  If you look at DraftKings, they're getting 82% of money
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  line bets, 84% of money line dollars.
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  Then you look out in the desert at Circa, Cubs are getting 68%
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  of bets, 87% of dollars. So couple really good low bets,
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  higher dollars bet splits, especially out at Circa telling
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  us that we got a lot of wise guys laying with the Cubbies
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  here tonight. Now the Cubs are lighting up
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  quite a few betting systems. I have 8 system matches on the
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  Cubs tonight here. Just some of the top ones.
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  Home favorites of the winning record, 120 and 60 this year, 67
• 6:42
  percent, 7% ROI. Home favorites off a win with a
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  winning record variation. You layer on kind of the
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  momentum there, 87 and 3870%. Eleven percent ROI.
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  Home favorites off a win with Steam $0.05 or more in their
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  direction. 61 and 2968% with a 9% ROI.
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  And then when both teams are above 500, you take the the
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  cream that rises to the top, take the favorite.
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  In those situations, the favorite in that spot is 45 and
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  2862 percent, 4% ROI. Another little added bonus.
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  Here is some correlative betting.
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  We have a favorite low total. So Cubs here again, favorite
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  around -150 -, 155 total in this one is 8.
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  I think it was 8 1/2 down to 8. The wind is blowing in a little
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  bit at Wrigley. But again, fair amount of
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  expected run scored. More likely to come from quote
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  UN quote that better team. Now Chicago.
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  I'm going to bank on their bats hopefully showing up and getting
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  to Verlander tonight. They're hitting 262 on the year,
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  54 homers, 217 runs scored. San Fran's only hitting 231 as a
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  team, 38 homers, 166 runs scored.
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  If we take a little deeper, we got 2 righties on the bump.
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  How do these teams perform against righties?
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  The Cubs are hitting 255 against righties.
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  That's the 7th best in baseball. The G Men are hitting 235
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  against righties. That ranks 24th.
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  Also, I want to back Colin Ray. This guy's been good.
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  I'm surprised the Brewers didn't keep him.
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  But he he has a 0.77 ERA and two starts at home this year and
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  Chicago has won six straight of the starts made by Ray.
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  So you add it all up here, guys, we got some steam on the
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  cubbies. We got good bet splits.
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  We got a ton of system matches, favorite low total, better bats.
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  And again, I'll I'll, I'll ride Ray over Verlander here.
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  So shop around. I got the cubbies -150 at Bet
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  MGM, next one for you, another 7:40 PM Eastern Time.
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  First pitch, let's go to Minnesota.
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  Baltimore Orioles at the Minnesota Twins set the stage
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  with this one. We got the OS coming in.
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  Big disappointment. They've been on the rise last
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  couple years, but they're off to a 13 and 20 start.
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  Did just drop two or three against the Royals.
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  They lost that series finale 11 to 6 as a -, 140 home favorite.
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  Meanwhile, the Twinkies 15 and 20 took two out of three against
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  my Red Sox. Did not enjoy that weekend
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  because you got to take two or three when I'm on your over win
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  total Boston. But anyway, they won that series
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  finale on Sunday 5:00 to 4:00 as a + 165 Rd. dog.
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  So a pitching match up Tonight we got the OS handing the ball
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  to the lefty Cade Povich one and two 5.16 ERA.
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  Meanwhile, the Twins are going to go with the ready Pablo
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  Lopez. He's two and two with a 2.25
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  ERA. What have we seen across the
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  market for this one? Well, nothing but steam on the
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  Twinkies. Twins open this game around a -,
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  150 home favorite Baltimore round a + 130 Rd. dog, and we've
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  now seen Minnesota get steamed up all the way minus I got a -,
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  165. Now the best number you're
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  looking at is -172 at FanDuel, but others are as high as -175 S
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  Again, a lot of movement, a lot of steam here on the Twinkies.
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  At Circa, we got Minnesota taking in 60% of money line
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  bets, but a whopping 87% of money line dollars.
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  So further evidence of the big sharper bets there out in Vegas,
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  laying it with the Twinkies in the spot.
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  A lot of system matches on Minnesota.
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  I got nine overall system matches.
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  A lot of these are going to be overlaps with the game we just
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  talked about with the Cubs. But home favorites 218 and one,
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  2364 percent, 5% ROI this year, non division home favorites off
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  a win with Steam $0.05 or more, 61 and 2968 percent, 9% ROI.
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  Both teams are coming off a day off, which is the case here.
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  Take the favorite 38 and 1572 percent, 16% ROI.
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  And then if you look at kind of your bigger favorites -150 or
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  more, they're one O 6 and 4769% with a 3% ROI.
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  So all lighting up here on the Twinkies.
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  Now, Minnesota, aside from, you know, Lopez over Povich, you
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  would, you would assume and hope if you're going to ride the
• 10:47
  Twins like me, bullpen as well benefits Minnesota.
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  They have a team ERA of 3.75, Baltimore's team ERA.
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  And out of the pen is five point O 8.
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  That's the third worst in baseball.
• 10:59
  Look into the hitting here a bit.
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  We have the Twins hitting 258 at home this year.
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  That's the 9th best in baseball. Orioles are only only hitting
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  215 on the road. That's right.
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  That ranks 25th. Lopez in particular, I remember
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  he was the trade with I think Luis Arise with Miami, but he
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  has a 1.96 ERA and four April starts.
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  He only gave up five runs and 23 innings.
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  Meanwhile, Povich 4.97 ERA and five April starts gave up
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  fourteen runs and 25.1 innings pitched.
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  Then a little bit of home Rd. Twins nine and six at home.
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  Not bad. O's just 5 and 11 on the road.
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  So we got hopefully the better pitcher on the bump of Lopez.
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  We got a good steam move here on Minnesota.
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  Tons of system matches, good splits, better pen, better
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  offense. I'm making on the Twinkies here.
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  Hopefully get a win for the team.
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  I got a -, 165 again. Your best number I believe is
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  now -172 at FanDuel. Now let's go to the Colorado
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  Rockies to sweat one of our favorite teams this year, the
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  Detroit Tigers. Tigers at Rockies, 8:40 PM
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  Eastern Time, First pitch. Let's set the stage.
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  Talk about this interleague showdown.
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  You might already know where I'm going to go with this one, but
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  looking at this matchup, we got the Tigers 22 and 13 on the
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  year. Just took three or four against
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  the Angels. They won that series finale 13
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  to one as a -, 175 Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, the Rockies 6 and 28
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  off to one of the worst starts. There should be a prop bet out
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  there who will finish with the worst record the the White Sox
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  of last year or the Rockies of this year.
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  That's going to be a dead heat. But 6 and 28 just got rolled by
• 12:32
  the Giants. They lost that series finale
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  9:00 to 3:00 as a + 320 Rd. dog. So pitch match up tonight we got
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  the Tigers going with their first round pick Jackson Job.
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  He's 2 and O 3.38 ERA. You know all the Rockies are
• 12:46
  going to go with the righty Chase Dolander who's two and
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  three with a 6.48 ERA. Now what have we seen across the
• 12:53
  market? Well, we got some steam going
• 12:55
  with the Tigers. Give me the Tigers guys.
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  They open as around a -. 165 Rd. favorite Colorado run a + 140
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  home dog and sharps. Not scared off by that chalk on
• 13:06
  the road. They've steamed the Tigers up
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  -165 up to -175 I got cat Detroit -174 at FanDuel.
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  Other books are closer to like -180 right now.
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  But if you look at DraftKings heavy, heavy one way splits in
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  favor of the Tigers, 93% of money line bets, 95% of money
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  line dollars. So again, big pro and Joe one
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  way split in favor of the Tigers.
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  Then we get to our system matches.
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  I have 7 on Detroit here. Some of the best ones, favorites
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  with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs
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  the previous year. They're 123 and 60 this year, 67
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  percent, 8% ROI. Both teams coming off a day off,
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  which is the situation here tonight.
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  Favorite is 38 and 1572 percent, 16% ROI.
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  Same one that matched with Minnesota.
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  Dig a little deeper here. Detroit has that interleague
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  favorite value. So lack of familiarity
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  benefiting quote UN quote. The better team was expected to
• 14:01
  win. Tigers do have a big advantage
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  offensively. They're hitting 255 on the year,
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  47 homers, 179 runs scored. Rockies only hitting two O 927
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  homers, 106 runs scored. Detroit better bullpen the area
• 14:15
  of 2.57. That's the third best in
• 14:17
  baseball. 3.88 for for Colorado ranking in the bottom half.
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  Tigers running 251 on the road, that's the 7th best in baseball.
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  Rockies hitting 234 at home, that ranks 23rd.
• 14:30
  Both righties here on the bump, we have Detroit hitting 252
• 14:33
  against righties. That's 8th best in baseball.
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  Rockies only hitting 215 against righties, that ranks 30th.
• 14:39
  And then lastly, Jackson Job, who I was actually doing some
• 14:42
  reading because I thought he was like a top pick, which he was.
• 14:46
  He was taken right before the Red Sox took Marcelo Meyer.
• 14:48
  I believe he went third overall, but he was an incredible athlete
• 14:52
  and you look at his numbers, you know what a loser I am.
• 14:55
  Sometimes what I like to do is like if there's a first round
• 14:57
  pick or someone who's going to play, I like to look at their
• 15:00
  baseball reference or like their Wikipedia and just see the stats
• 15:03
  they put up in high school. And I saw this guy Jackson job,
• 15:06
  I think in high school. He is senior year.
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  He went like 13 and one with a 0.13 ERA.
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  So I'm I'm the kind of loser kind of kind of enjoys those
• 15:15
  those little things. But anyway, Detroit is five and
• 15:19
  O and Job's 5 starts this year. Dolander, by the way, at home,
• 15:22
  he's made three starts. He has an ERA of 6.75 S.
• 15:26
  One of our favorite teams to sweat.
• 15:28
  We got good steam. I'm more than happy to fade the
• 15:30
  Rockies. Let's go Detroit.
• 15:33
  I got the Tigers at -174 at FanDuel.
• 15:37
  So Minnesota, Cubs and Detroit, can we get 2 or more of those?
• 15:40
  That is the goal. Now let's go over to the NBA.
• 15:43
  I'm going to give you my play for one of the games tonight and
• 15:46
  then we'll finish up the pod with some opportunities to lay
• 15:49
  big numbers, but they're much smaller than they were prior to
• 15:52
  last night. So we'll get to that in a
• 15:53
  second. But anyway, I want to talk about
• 15:56
  the first game tonight, Pacers and the Cavaliers.
• 15:59
  Now this game is really interesting for a couple
• 16:01
  different reasons. On the one hand, of course,
• 16:05
  setting the stage if you missed it, this is game two of the
• 16:07
  second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs and we did
• 16:10
  see Indiana pull off the upset. They won 121 to 112 to to take
• 16:15
  that game. One, we're still in Cleveland
• 16:17
  before we flip over to Indiana. Obviously it's a must win for
• 16:20
  the Cavs. You can't go down O2 and then go
• 16:22
  on the road. The early move was toward the
• 16:24
  Pacers. If you look at this line move,
• 16:27
  it opened as high as I saw some shops like Cavs -10 -, 9 and a
• 16:32
  half nine. The line at one point get all
• 16:34
  the way down to Cavs -7 1/2. And now it has ticked back up to
• 16:39
  Cavs -8 and looks like some shops are going to 8 1/2.
• 16:43
  And there's a lot of injuries here.
• 16:45
  Like if you haven't been paying attention, the Cavs got a lot of
• 16:47
  guys were injured, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and DeAndre
• 16:50
  Hunter. So their best big man, one of
• 16:53
  their best guards and one of the best guys off the bench are all
• 16:56
  questionable for this game. And I did see a tweet if you
• 17:00
  ever want like starting lineups in baseball or they're pretty
• 17:03
  much great for every sport. But I'm a big fan of the
• 17:06
  underdog Twitter account. So for this one, it's at
• 17:09
  Underdog. NBA would definitely follow them
• 17:11
  and they're really great for the MLB starting lineups.
• 17:14
  They come out pretty much first anywhere.
• 17:16
  But I did notice a tweet earlier today at around 11:30 AM, it
• 17:19
  said status alert, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, DeAndre Hunter
• 17:22
  not seen at shoot around Tuesday.
• 17:26
  So typically if you're not a shoot around, you're probably
• 17:28
  not going to play. I mean, it is the playoffs,
• 17:29
  maybe they skip it and they do play.
• 17:31
  But you did see this line fall pretty big here in favor of the
• 17:34
  Pacers. It's starting to tick back up a
• 17:36
  little bit, you would assume. I would say, hey, let's take the
• 17:39
  points line, move toward the dog.
• 17:40
  Cavs are banged up. That was my initial thought, but
• 17:43
  I ended up laying off the points with the Pacers.
• 17:46
  If you look at the bet splits right now, they're getting like
• 17:49
  majority of tickets at DraftKings, which always worries
• 17:51
  me as a trendy dog, but they're only getting around half the
• 17:54
  tickets. So I said, hey, nothing crazy
• 17:57
  there. I mean, gone to that.
• 17:58
  I'd lean with the line move because it did go toward Pacers,
• 18:01
  but it seems too easy and fishy And I did notice a lot of people
• 18:04
  that I respect in the betting world really like the Cavs to
• 18:07
  bounce back and and win this one and cover this one.
• 18:10
  So I said, you know what, it's not a perfect play.
• 18:12
  I did have three models here which the Cavs were or sorry,
• 18:18
  the Pacers are plus 6.2 + 7 and plus 8.2.
• 18:22
  So if you can give me an 8 1/2, you know, that would be a bit of
• 18:25
  a of an edge there. But what I landed on is let's
• 18:28
  play this under. This under kind of jumped out to
• 18:31
  me. So I'm on under 229 1/2.
• 18:34
  Now. You got to shop around because
• 18:35
  that is at Bet MGM. A lot of other books are down to
• 18:38
  229 at this point. But my angle here is number one.
• 18:42
  We did see early on this total tick up.
• 18:45
  So it opened around 2:29, 2/29 and 1/2.
• 18:47
  It got up to 230. I believe maybe one book got to
• 18:51
  230 1/2. Maybe that was a bit of an
• 18:53
  outlier. But ever since that time, it's
• 18:55
  come falling back down. So there's no more 230 1/2.
• 18:58
  There's no more two 30s, there's only a couple 229 1/2's now and
• 19:03
  a lot of books are not down to 229.
• 19:05
  So it it kind of opened at around 2:29.
• 19:08
  It got bet up early, but now all movement is falling back down.
• 19:12
  So I said on the one hand, late movement game day is going
• 19:15
  toward the under. And then number two, 229 1/2
• 19:18
  looks to be probably the best number here.
• 19:20
  So I took under 229 1/2. My angle here is #1 public is on
• 19:26
  the over. So you have nearly 2/3 of bets
• 19:28
  at DraftKings playing the over. So just from a contrarian
• 19:31
  standpoint, I can bet against the public who's playing the
• 19:34
  over and go under. Then I look at circa at circa
• 19:38
  70% of bets, but 81% of dollars are on the under.
• 19:42
  So out of the really sharp Vegas book, you have a lot of bets in
• 19:45
  dollars going under. So I feel like I'm with that low
• 19:49
  bets, higher dollar split on the under.
• 19:51
  We do have a 3% sharp mush edge. It's not huge, but it does have
• 19:55
  an indicator here on the under at Juice Reel where more of the
• 19:58
  sharper winning batters are on the under versus the the losing
• 20:02
  batters who are going over. Then I looked at my rhythm
• 20:05
  models and here's what it spit out to me.
• 20:08
  I have three overall, 229.8229 point 4 and 228, so 229 1/2.
• 20:16
  Again, you're kind of casting by the skin of your teeth.
• 20:18
  But my other angle here, guys, all these injuries.
• 20:21
  Like Mobley, Garland and DeAndre Hunter.
• 20:23
  Evan Mobley, yes, he's a great defensive player, but he also
• 20:26
  averages 18 1/2 points a game. He had 20 points in the opener.
• 20:30
  He might not play. You're missing a really good
• 20:32
  offensive player, DeAndre Hunter, who they picked up in a
• 20:35
  trade with the Hawks. He averaged 17 points a game.
• 20:38
  He had 11 points off the bench. He may not play.
• 20:41
  So now you have your best scorer off the bench who's not going to
• 20:43
  play. And then Garland, he's missed I
• 20:45
  think like 3 games at this point.
• 20:46
  He also may not play. So maybe these guys will suit
• 20:50
  up. If so, you know, how effective
• 20:52
  will they be? But I think if you're the Cavs,
• 20:54
  I don't know if you want to get into a a running gun shoot out
• 20:58
  with a fully healthy team when you're banged up.
• 21:00
  I would, you know, kind of maybe maybe I'm wrong, but I would
• 21:02
  assume you might want to bog this thing down and win a lower
• 21:05
  scoring game. But you got it all up here,
• 21:07
  guys. Again, I wanted to take Pacers
• 21:10
  in the points, but it kind of worried me with the best splits
• 21:12
  being a public play and a lot of people that I respect in the
• 21:15
  industry really like in the Cavs in the spot.
• 21:18
  But I like the under, made some sense to me here with some
• 21:21
  injuries to some offensive guys. Hopefully you're getting the
• 21:24
  best #229 1/2 with some good splits and some some sharp mush
• 21:28
  edges. Small but nothing crazy with
• 21:30
  both juice reel and rhythm. So that's my play.
• 21:34
  I'm going under 229 1/2 shop round.
• 21:37
  Get that hook at Venom gym. Under 229 1/2 Game 2 Pacers and
• 21:41
  Cavs. Now to finish up the pod, I
• 21:44
  wanted to mention some series prices because we've seen some
• 21:48
  big changes in the series betting market and obviously the
• 21:52
  two ones here are the Celtics and the OK C Thunder.
• 21:55
  Both teams were big favorites last night.
• 21:57
  Celtics were favored by 8 1/2 or 9.
• 22:00
  Don't remind me OK C favored by 10 1/2.
• 22:03
  What would you guys rather have? Would you rather get blown out
• 22:06
  and you know lose a lose a play where you get the regular number
• 22:09
  or would you rather get CLV and lose at the buzzer?
• 22:12
  I almost would rather get blown out.
• 22:13
  It's super frustrating to me when you can do your part in the
• 22:16
  the people on the field, the players don't do theirs.
• 22:18
  But anyway, what are you going to do?
• 22:20
  But I did notice some huge bylaw opportunities on both the
• 22:23
  Celtics and the Thunder. Now, if you look at the odds to
• 22:27
  win the the NBA title, the Celtics and the Thunder are
• 22:31
  still you know your best, your best numbers here.
• 22:34
  Like currently you have the Thunder plus 175 and the Celtics
• 22:38
  plus 210 to win the title at DraftKings.
• 22:41
  Cavs are +500. Then it's T, Wolves plus 1100
• 22:44
  Nuggets, Warriors, Knicks, Pacers all much further down.
• 22:47
  But here's where I think it gets interesting in a value play.
• 22:50
  Now the Celtics and OK C at DraftKings both opened the
• 22:54
  series as -800 favorites. Huge numbers too high for me to
• 22:59
  lay. But after losing game one for
• 23:02
  both teams, Celtics went from -800 down to -340 at DraftKings.
• 23:11
  OK C went from -800 down to -290 at DraftKings.
• 23:15
  So if I were to tell you, do you want to lay a 340 or 290?
• 23:18
  You'd probably say no, that's too expensive.
• 23:21
  But what if I told you before the series when it was -800 I
• 23:25
  can give you a 340 or 290. So it's not always the number in
• 23:29
  it in and of in and of itself being high or low.
• 23:31
  It's relative to what was it prior.
• 23:34
  Now, if you look at the upcoming games here, we have this for
• 23:38
  tomorrow night. Celtics are 10 1/2 point
• 23:40
  favorites against the Knicks. Thunder are 11 point favorites
• 23:43
  against Nuggets. So those numbers actually ticked
• 23:45
  up since Game 1. So I'm thinking of buying low on
• 23:48
  both the Celtics in OK C And here's the other thing.
• 23:51
  You got to shop around because I just mentioned to you that
• 23:54
  Boston is -340 to win the series of DraftKings.
• 23:58
  They're -370 at FanDuel, they're -350 at ESPN bet they're -330 at
• 24:03
  Caesars, but at Bet MGM, Celtics are -300 So not only is it a buy
• 24:09
  low off the opening or the the series opening price, but you
• 24:13
  can also shop around and and save some juice here.
• 24:15
  So I'm playing the Celtics to come back and win the series at
• 24:18
  -300 Here's the thing, if they win tomorrow night, that -300 is
• 24:22
  probably going to be back up to -500 So it's all about timing
• 24:26
  here. Then I mentioned OK C DraftKings
• 24:29
  is the best price for OK C -, 290.
• 24:32
  You have them -300 at Caesars and Bet MGM -320 at ESPN, bet in
• 24:38
  FanDuel, so -290 at DraftKings is your best price.
• 24:42
  So I'm thinking, hey, maybe you trip up.
• 24:44
  Maybe you want to get a loss out of the way.
• 24:46
  Maybe it humbles you. I can't tell you how freaking
• 24:48
  annoying it is when the Celtics just Jack up threes.
• 24:51
  They set the record last night for missed 3 pointers.
• 24:53
  It is infuriating. They just shoot threes, bombs
• 24:56
  away forever. It's like, can you win another
• 24:58
  way? Why are you so stubborn?
• 25:00
  Go to the freaking hoop. It also pisses me off with
• 25:03
  Jayson Tatum, he always at the end wants to do a step back
• 25:07
  three to put it in someone's eye and win the game.
• 25:10
  Like why don't you go to the rim and get fouled?
• 25:11
  You can win that way too. You can tell I'm annoyed and I
• 25:14
  had no action on him last night at all.
• 25:16
  It's just it's annoying as a Celtics fan.
• 25:18
  But anyway, guys, these are buy law opportunities.
• 25:20
  Yes, they're still big numbers, but they're much shorter than
• 25:22
  they were before. So I am going to put a unit here
• 25:25
  on Celtics -300 and OK C -, 290 see if we can buy low and get
• 25:30
  better prices. So that about does it for
• 25:33
  episode 272 of the All systems Go sports betting podcast
• 25:37
  powered by Rhythm. Of course.
• 25:39
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 25:41
  start start first by saying thank you.
• 25:43
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 25:46
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 25:49
  sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 25:51
  If you do enjoy the pod and you want to let me know you
• 25:53
  appreciate the insights on a daily basis, could you please do
• 25:56
  me a solid give this podcast a five star review.
• 25:59
  If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, If you want to leave
• 26:02
  a nice comment or click the follow button that we get
• 26:05
  alerted as soon as it drops each day or recommend the pod to a
• 26:08
  friend, that would also be pretty awesome of you.
• 26:11
  Next, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
• 26:14
  sharp contrarian betting, betting games not with our
• 26:17
  heart, but with our head, which again, is super important long
• 26:20
  term because your biases can talk you into bad bets and talk
• 26:24
  you out of good ones. But if we can stick to the model
• 26:26
  in the blueprint, make games, make bets based on what the
• 26:29
  market is telling us, then I think we're going to do a lot
• 26:31
  better overall. In fact, I know that.
• 26:34
  But if you want to learn more about data-driven betting or you
• 26:36
  have someone in your life who could use a few data-driven
• 26:38
  betting tips or you just want to support the pod, you know what
• 26:41
  you can do. You can go to Amazon.com and
• 26:43
  type in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 26:46
  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 26:48
  It's got everything in the industry that I've learned over
• 26:50
  time. How lines are set, how and why
• 26:52
  they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
• 26:54
  action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
• 26:57
  for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
• 27:01
  included in the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 27:03
  While you're at it, while you're picking up the Everything Guide,
• 27:06
  you should also stay on Amazon and then type in the NFL Sharp
• 27:10
  Betting Playbook. That's my new book.
• 27:11
  It comes out August 12th. Cannot wait.
• 27:14
  But if you guys would be interested in pre ordering a
• 27:16
  copy, it's 24 bucks. It would make me very happy.
• 27:18
  It would make my publishers very happy.
• 27:21
  But I can't wait to get that book in your guys hands because
• 27:24
  I'm I'm really proud of it. I've been working on it for over
• 27:26
  three years at this point. But you know what you're going
• 27:28
  to do? You're going to bring the
• 27:30
  everything guide in the NFL sharp betting playbook to the
• 27:33
  sports book and guess what? I'll sign them for you.
• 27:35
  Buy your beer or ginger ale and we'll get some some mozzarella
• 27:39
  sticks and onion rings and sweat some games together.
• 27:42
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
• 27:45
  My two favorite sports betting apps because they're all about
• 27:48
  data. There's no opinion involved.
• 27:49
  It's all about data and information.
• 27:52
  Obviously Rhythm does a great job of powering this podcast,
• 27:55
  giving us AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 27:58
  player props each day across all the major sports.
• 28:01
  And of course, we're going to have our 4:00 PM live stream
• 28:04
  today for Rhythm, which I'll host the Rhythm Lab.
• 28:06
  So hope to see you guys there on Twitter, but then also Juice
• 28:09
  Reel or you can sign up to get the all systems go best bet
• 28:12
  picks for $4.99 a week. I hope to I would hope to think
• 28:17
  that you know, this insight is worth 5 bucks a week for you
• 28:19
  guys. But again, the pods free if you
• 28:22
  want to sign up for those plays for 499 a week.
• 28:24
  I consider that a tip jar. Good service tip your podcast
• 28:27
  host. But you won't just get the best
• 28:29
  bets for the all systems go pod. You will also get the juice Reel
• 28:33
  Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
• 28:37
  arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures, sync up your
• 28:40
  sports books, get a running report card of your action and
• 28:43
  also you'll get those actual dollar and bets breakdowns for
• 28:46
  all the games from people have synced up their books to juice
• 28:49
  reel. So download juice reel and
• 28:51
  download rhythm. Give them a five star review in
• 28:53
  the App Store. Lastly, do you have a live odds
• 28:56
  page? Will you need one?
• 28:57
  You got to have one. You don't know what you're
• 28:59
  missing until you pick one up and you say, how the heck did I
• 29:01
  bet on sports prior without a live odds page?
• 29:04
  But of course with the live odds page, you're going to get all
• 29:06
  the games first. You got to know, is it better?
• 29:08
  What games are available to me today?
• 29:10
  What can I bet on? It's also going to give you the
• 29:12
  start times, live scoring live lines, which are super
• 29:15
  important. If you feel like there's a buy
• 29:16
  low spot throughout a game you want to take advantage of.
• 29:19
  You also get the opening column gives you the opening number and
• 29:22
  then the current odds for every game.
• 29:23
  So you can quickly see which direction the line is moving.
• 29:26
  You can pull up the line history.
• 29:27
  You can shop for the best lines for just any bet you're going to
• 29:30
  make in general, but really there are lots of live odds
• 29:33
  pages out there. But you know what you got to do?
• 29:35
  You got to give Odds Logic a shot.
• 29:37
  Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123. You'll get a 7 day free trial,
• 29:43
  then 50% off your first month. And again, you got to use that
• 29:46
  specific link, Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 29:52
  So that about does it for episode 272 of the ASG pod.
• 29:55
  As always guys, I'll leave you with a couple things.
• 29:57
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 30:01
  River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
• 30:03
  Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
• 30:06
  Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield or the Nash and my
• 30:09
  neck of the woods in in in New England.
• 30:13
  Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
• 30:15
  down. Where Billy Walter sends his
• 30:16
  number runners, where the lowest choose possible is found at the
• 30:19
  South Point or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 30:22
  stadium swim pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 30:25
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me,
• 30:28
  show me a nice Dodgers ticket, a nice Cubbies ticket.
• 30:31
  Whatever you do, though, OK, C Pathetic.
• 30:33
  We get 9 1/2 at closest, 10 1/2. They lose out, right?
• 30:36
  That. That's what makes betting
• 30:38
  frustrating, guys, not going to lie.
• 30:40
  But either way, guys, first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 30:43
  We'll sweat some games together at the book, as always.
• 30:46
  Two and two, three and one, one and three, four and OO and four.
• 30:50
  Whether we're hot, cold, somewhere in the middle.
• 30:53
  We never let the previous day get us too high or too low.
• 30:56
  We can stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, stay even
• 30:59
  keeled, and if we can do that, stay true to the model that
• 31:01
  games with our head and not our heart, against the public, with
• 31:04
  the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that
• 31:07
  CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 31:09
  to be successful sports betters long term.
• 31:12
  So enjoy your Tuesday night, everybody.
• 31:13
  Let's get some winners on the diamond in the playoff hardwood.
• 31:17
  And of course, I look forward to seeing you at 4:00 Eastern Time
• 31:20
  for the rhythm live stream. Then after that, we'll be right
• 31:22
  back at it tomorrow for a big Wednesday edition, episode 273
• 31:27
  of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
• 31:30
  Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 31:32
  great Tuesday night.