Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 127 : NL Central Preview With Derek VanRiper

Transcript

Ep. 127 : NL Central Preview With Derek VanRiper · Cards & Categories

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode one twenty seven of
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Cards and Categories. I am Mike Coolard, joined by Jeremie Brewer,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: and we've got a great podcast here tonight Talk in
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: EL Central DVR, but it's also released day of twenty
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: twenty six, Top Series one. We're speaking here on February eleventh.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: It's been a great week for baseball. Unless you're a handmate, bone,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: how you feeling tonight?
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: I was just like, my hand kind of hurts right now.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: I think I might have to go with that. Oh,
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: just maybe it's carbl tunnel. It's a hatmate. I'm not
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: actually not sure where my hammate is. But besides that,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: I'm ready to go excited. We have baseball news, we
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: have a great guests coming on, so we're going to
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: get into my favorite division in ELL Central Today's so
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: I'm excited to talk about it.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Yes, it is a fantastic preview.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: So before we get into that NL Central preview with DVR,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: let me remind you to go into the show notes
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: you can check out the links to anything that we're discussed. Also,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: you'll find a link to Rasball subscriptions down there. So
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: we are right in the thick of draft season. Now
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: that the Super Bowl is wrapped and we've got players
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: reporting to pitchers and catchers and spring training, hence all
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the injuries that we're about to discuss.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: But help you navigate it all the rasball subscription, you
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: can't go wrong.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: You're gonna get that draft room from Rudy, You're gonna
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  Speaker 1: It's a great website. I can't say anything no ill
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: will about it. It is everybody has great insights. Check
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: out that rasball subscription. It's well worth your money. Now,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: let's get into the news and notes before we get
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: to the bevy of injuries that we're alluding to. I mean,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: if you're a baseball fan, you know where it's going,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: because I'm sure you've been just heartbroken as you've seen
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: all of the transactions and wire breaking news of all
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: of the myriad of injuries. As people report, we're going
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: to date some transactions. First, we've got one trade to cover.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: We've got the Red Sox and the Brewers linking up
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: for a six player swap that includes Caleb Durbin going
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: over to Boston and Kyle Harrison coming back for the Brewers.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: Are kind of the main.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Pieces with others involved. I think the most important piece
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: here is probably Caleb Durbin, who was coming off a
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: pretty solid year for the Brewers and was penciled in
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to be their starting third basement before this trade. Now
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: it looks like it's going to end up being maybe
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: like some sort of combination of Jet Williams and Joey
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: or Teas and little bit of David Hamilton who came
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: back in the trade. I guess that's probably a little
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: bit momentous too. But Caleb Durban had a pretty solid
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: season last year, one hundred and thirty six games, one
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: O five WRC plus with eleven homers, which is pretty surprising.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It's mostly's hit at any level ever in his career,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: and eighteen Stone bases should walk into a starting gig
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: with the Red Sox. Brew What do you think about
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: this landing spot for Caleb Durban? Have you been into
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: this profile of his since he's kind of come on
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: to fantasy radars.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's honestly, it's a tough landing
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: spot for him, just from an overall profile perspective of
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: what he does as really a big pole hitter with
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: not a substantial amount of power, and so I think,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: you know, Finn movie is going to be gonna be
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: a little tough for him. So you know, if you
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: actually look at his homer profile last year and said, hey,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: where will we hit the least amount of home runs,
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Boston is right there on the top few, the top five.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Instead of homers, they said he would have had five,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: and that's not ideal. So I think that, you know,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: and you also just look under the covers, like this
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  Speaker 2: is a guy that's all about plate discipline and hitting
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: the ball hard but not necessarily I say, squaring it up,
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: but not necessarily hit it hard. And so he makes
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: a solid contact, but not loud contact. And so I
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: think he's a good player. I don't think I'm expecting
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: a big repeat of the homers in the profile. The
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: steels have always been there for him and he's always
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: been really pretty efficient with it, even though he's not
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: the you know, a massive speedster, and so I think
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: he's gonna find a home here. He's gonna sit in
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: a pretty strong lineup, and he'll deliver decent stats. But
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: I'm still really looking at him as kind of a
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: mid tier player, more of a corner infield type of
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: thing at the end of the day, because I don't
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: think that the quality of contacts that they really get there,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: and I fear low double digits homers is the peak
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: that we're gonna get with Caleb Durban here, and so
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: you're looking at maybe a guy that goes ten twenty
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: five with a two fifty AVERA. Nothing wrong with that,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: but it's just not something that's going to get me
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: overly excited.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think what's going to be most
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: exciting at the end of the day for fantasy is
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: he's third base eligible. Now he should pick up second
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: base pretty quickly with the red Sox makes him an
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: absolute utility knife for your infield for fantasy. And when
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: you're doing that with a guy with a solid average
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: and some stolen bases, that is nice to add over
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: the season. So I think that's probably like his best
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: use case scenario is like am I CI switch him
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: back and forth cover for injuries and just hope that
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: he plays every day in that Red Sox lineup. So
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: useful player, but probably just about what he was with Milwaukee.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: Okay, let's get into the signings. First one we have
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: is Justin Verlander, future Hall of Famer, has signed back
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: with the Detroit Tigers, and there is a corresponding injury
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: that kind of goes with this in Detroit when we
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: get into our injury section. But he is the forty
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: three year old now returning back to the Tigers, where
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: he has an pitched since twenty seventeen, and last year
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: was honestly, it was a pretty solid.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Season at the end of the day, even though he
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: went four and eleven and like it took up forever
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: to get on the board in terms of wins. If
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: you drafted him, I don't think you can complain about
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the production you got out of Verlander in San Francisco
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  Speaker 1: last year. One hundred and fifty two innings with a
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: three eighty five RA, a three eighty five FIT, and
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: eight K nine. So I mean that's a pretty solid
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: starter for fantasy I think a back end starter, but
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I think that's what Verlander is he seems like he's
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: going to go out there and post for you, and honestly,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: you can almost just like copy and paste those numbers.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: I think because he's in a weaker division, great ballpark
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: in Detroit. What do you think about Verlander joined the Tigers.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it, let's be very clear, like this
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: is not your Justin Verlander of five seven years ago.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: This is the new version, this tru which I feel
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: like Detroit is just trying to buy anybody at the
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: end of their careers that might go to the Hall
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  Speaker 2: of Fame. Him and Kenley Jansen like something going on
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: there looking for milestone wins. You know, he's got two
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: hundred and six six wins his career, so I think Verlander,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: it might be trying to stick around to get to
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: that number. Uh the five and four the last two
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: years did not do any any justice that the fact
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: that he is not going as deep into games as
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: he as he used to. But yeah, I think he's
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: gonna get more wins in Detroit. I think he's gonna
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: be is in a good ballpark. I mean it is,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: it's I mean, it's going back home. He's he's got
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: had a lot of success there there. I think there's
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: gonna be something to say for that comfort level. But
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: we're we're looking at the guy that's really bul gettings.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: You might get a spot where Shower League. We're more
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: of a streamer perspective here, But I think it's really
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the back end of a rotation that you're looking for.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Just a guy that's gonna come in day in, day out,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: strike off enough. Guy's not gonna blow up, and he's
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: got a good head on his shoulder. So I think
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: it's a fine landing space. It's not like man go
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: drug draft justin Verlander, but he's sitting there later in
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: drafts and going man like I did not do any
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: need from death perspective, grab grab Verlander.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think this next guy you can
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: probably throw into that bin as well in terms of
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: nice death starter. Almost can set it and forget it,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: as you know, a back end starter on your team.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: Chris Bassett just today, just this evening, like.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: While we have been recording this podcast, signed with the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles should be right in the smack dab in
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the middle of that rotation, which honestly's looking pretty solid.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I still would love to see them go maybe go
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: get a Zach Gallon or something. But they've finished off
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: this team pretty well and it's going to be very
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: competitive going into the AL East next this upcoming season.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Bassett is coming off of a season of a three
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  Speaker 1: ninety six er over one hundred and seventy and a
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  Speaker 1: third innings with an eight point eight K nine, eleven
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: and nine record for the Blue Jays, so he's well
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: versed on the AL East. Turns thirty seven in just
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: about a week and a half on the twenty second.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is he is who he is at
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: this point, right that you can almost pretty much just
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: count on christ to be a four era pitcher with
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: just a tick under nine K nine in one hundred
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: and seventy innings, right, I think so.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: But I mean, I'm I'm really torn here because Chris
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: Bassett looked different in the playoffs last year. You know,
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: we're talking like an eight inning sample, so I get
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: I'm out of the bullpen, so he's you know, he's
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: throwing Chris Bassett gas, which is what like ninety five
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: ninety four instead of ninety one. But he just looked different.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: He looked very confident, He looked like he was there
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: to dominate that mound, and I'm having trouble shaking that.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: And then there's like, look at the profile the rest
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: of the year, like he's just, to your point, a
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: four eer A type type guy that's gonna get some
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: bulk wins. He's gonna give you good k's, good control,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: keep the whips relatively under control. It has blow in
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: the last few years a little bit, for sure, but
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm having trouble shaking it. I just the eye
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: test for me in the playoffs just showed a little
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: bit more. And when I see him signing for the
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: deal he signed, he got a lot of money to
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: come in here and be just a four oho e
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: r A guy, which I get. I don't wins are
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: expensive anymore, like it's it's that's maybe almost the going
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: price for one year deal of a starter. But I'm
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit more intrigued here, not based on analysis,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: not based on stats, based on the eye tests of
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: what he did in the playoffs, and it feels like
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: he may have found something there that I'm I'm gonna
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: watch real close in the spring training here to see
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: if that seems like it's carrying over into longer, longer shut.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: He is gonna be a starter, no question about it.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: They've gotten symptoms in that contract for games games started,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: so that's where he's gonna be. They're not gonna put
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen like Toronto had for the playoffs. But
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm intrigued. I'm intrigued.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm trying to look up with his splits on
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: the whip we're home versus way because I actually that's
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: not the factor because they do plan that turf in Toronto.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: But he had a one one seven whip at home
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: last year versus one fifty one on the road, which is.
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: Not what I was expecting to see.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: But you do wonder, like it's gone up the past
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: couple of years, but the Blue Jays had a really
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: great defense that you do wonder if maybe that will
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: bounce back. There's just kind of like a little bit
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: of babbit regression or something, because the Babebs have been
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: three thirty three and three fifteen over.
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: The past couple of years.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think there is quite a bit of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: upside here in Chris Bassett because he's also been relatively healthy.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Last year, you know, there was a little bit of
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: an injury that cropped up on him. But I mean
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: he's a great, solid starter, and especially if you've taken
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: him in drafts have already happened. You got him so
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: cheap compared to where he's gonna end up by the
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: end of draft season. All right, next signing we have
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: is one that for one of the teams that we're
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: going to be covering in that All Central preview, Marcelo
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Zuna signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates, which is I mean,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: this is also why Andre mccutcheen wasn't coming back to
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the Pirates, as you know, they are trying to make
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: that move and kind of move up the ladder a
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: bit to put themselves in wildcat content in Pittsburgh. A
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: bit of a down year in Atlanta last year for
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Marcelo Zuna in his age thirty four season a two
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: thirty two three fifty five four hundred slash line, which, uh,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: that's after the previous two years is a five point
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: fifty eight five forty six slug percentage. There was even
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: a stretch of time towards the second half where Ozuna
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: had lost his job that he was riding the pine
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: for a decent amount of time only hit twenty homers
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: twenty one homers last year and is DH only bat only.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: But honestly, the Pirates is probably a nice landing spot
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: for him because they have no incentive not to roll
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: out Marcelo Zuna for one hundred and sixty games at
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: DH to see what he can do. So with that, given,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: what do you think about Marcelo Zuna going into twenty
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: twenty six. He certainly has started to show signs of
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: age in twenty twenty five turns thirty five actually is
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: thirty five turns thirty six after the season, So I
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: mean he's getting up into that like Nelson Cruz territory
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: where the gills are slowly degrading and you don't know
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: when the cliff that's gonna happen.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: Are you in on Mizooona for twenty.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Six Yeah, I mean I think I am, like to
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: the degree of what you're paying, because you're talking about
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: a guy that's gonna clog up your utility, a guy
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: that's batting average, you know, is not gonna be it
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: was two seventy four and twenty three, three h two
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: and twenty four. It's gonna get But the two years
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: prior is too, thirteen two twenty six and twenty five
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: is two thirty two. Like, this is a guy that
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: you're hoping hits two thirty or two forty, but could
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: deliver thirty home runs and you know he he's gonna
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: play almost every day and in a lineup I think
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: is gonna be a lot lot better than people realize.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: And so you're talking about a guy that might be
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: able to go thirty homers, ninety runs, one hundred RBIs
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: and hit two thirty like and pretty gush urn cheap.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I'm intrigued. I think it's worth it in the I'm not.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking the little bit of a bounce back here.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's to your point. It's that Nelson
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Cruz kind of profile of like he's not wearing his
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: body down playing in the outfield or anything like that.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: That's all the guys asked to do is go for
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: the plate and hopefully trot around the bases here and there.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: So I think there's enough to like here in the
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: profile behind the scenes looks pretty healthy still, so I'm
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: gonna give Azuna shot. I'm gonna still give him a.
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: Shot, Okay, I think that's fair. We've got another.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, speaking of degrading skills and Paul gold Schmidt,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: first baseman re signed with the Yankees, I mean the
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: skills have degraded from their peak, but I mean it's
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: still a much healthier savant page than you would think.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: You know, the metrics kind of back up what he
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: was did last year in New York when he put
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: up a two seventy four three twenty eight four oh
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: three line is a one o three WRC plus, which
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: certainly sounds like it's nothing compared to what peak.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: Paul Goldschmidt was.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: But we've talked several times about the back end of
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: first base is brutal.
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: Gold Schmidt did.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Also, you know, the second half of the season was
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: much rougher for him as Ben Rice emerged and gen
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Carlos Stanton came back, and it kind of made it
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: hard for gold Schmidt to carve out regular playing time.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: So currently it's projected in the Yankees lineup to be
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a platoon bat. But I mean, Gian Carlostan there's just
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: a report this week as he reported back that the
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: tennis elbows are still alive and well and riddling gen
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Carlo Stanton, So is there enough still in the bat
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: from gold Schmidt and enough opportunity you see in New
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: York that you're willing to maybe throw a lake dart
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: on him, especially in like a draft and hold situation.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: I think both of those are both questionable, which is
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: why I probably am out on gold Schmidt in that
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: situation where I think the skills have degraded. They're not
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: like gone, But for even the first baseman, I think
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: you're still talking to guy that is probably hitting two
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: fifty two sixty. He's trying to get fifteen twenty homers
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: with a full run. But I think that again, all
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: those things are starting to kind of drop off. He
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: doesn't have any speed anymore, Like he's not gonna be
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: stealing bases. And I think Ben Rice is the full
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: time first baseman for the most part here, and they're
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: probably gonna try to get other guys through there that
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: DH is gonna be clogged up trying to if you know,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: for the four games Stanton plays, and then they're gonna
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: you know, rotate other guys through there with Rice and
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Judge and whatnot. So I just I think that the
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: skills are backing up. I don't think the playing time's
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: there if one or the other were kind of true,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: i'd be a little more intrigued, but I think it's
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: double risk, so I'm probably double out on this one.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the one situation where it
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: makes sense to draft Goldie is if you are in
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: a situation where you have a load bearing GM Carlo Stanton,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: just preempt at the waiver wire move you're gonna have
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to make.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: And I think that's that's fair. I think that's a
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: very very solid strategy.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Because, yeah, I do think when we're talking that first
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: GNG Carlo Stanton injury that happens, then Goldie is going
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to be picked up everywhere as he slots into DH
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: or first base. So something to keep in mind as
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: you're getting into a draft season in those late dart throws,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: all right. Last signing that we have to talk is
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: somebody with a full time starting gig now for the
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: San Diego Padres. That is Miguel ANDWHR, who signed a
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: one year deal and is currently on roster resource slated.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: To be the everyday DH for the Padres.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: You made fun of me last year when I called
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: out Gavin Sheets walking into this role for the Padres,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and it worked out pretty decently for him, as he's
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: now slated to be a strong side first baseman for them.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: But Andrew Hart coming off a relatively solid.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Season with two teams three eighteen three fifty two four
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: seventy slash line that was a one to twenty five
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: WRC plus ten homers and forty four RBIs in three
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty one played appearances. He makes contact, which
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: I'd like about this profile. It's only a fourteen percent
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate over the past couple of years, and you know,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: he's been a much more solid bat than you'd expect,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: much younger than you'd expect as well, only thirty years old.
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: I'm just kind of calling.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: This out because if you're looking for a late bat,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: you can do far worse, I think than Miguel and Harr.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: But certainly somebody who's going to be like a bench piece,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit of like a CI you're hoping that
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: he picks up some sort of like first base eligibility
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: should only be outfield, I believe right now, let me
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: look that up before actually back it up. No, he
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: is third base on NFBC as well, So I'm.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: Even into Andy har even more than I thought it
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: was because of that.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: So is there anything in the profile that really stands
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: out to you or is this something where you're worried
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: about going to a rough ballpark in Petco for Miguel
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: and Harr.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably gonna have actually probably I'll go back
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: and buy Gavin sheets if that's not here, Okay, But
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: I and Harror's profile is you know, solid contact, good
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: plate discipline, try to get on basis result, but very
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: little power, very little speed, and easily replaceable. Is I
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: think that the challenge? So when there's there's a better option,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: there's another guy that's getting hot, like this is the
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: first guy that's gonna lose playing time. So I think
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: this is an only league play for sure. And that's
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: where I would probably be focusing on Andrew Horror because
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: that's where you need guys that play, not just guys
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: that are going to be good, guys that have playing time.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: And he's not gonna hurt you terribly in that type
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: of format.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah, and the dual positional eligibility at third and outfield,
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: and I'll only he's going to be actually like a
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: hot commodity at the traff table, which is a little
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: bit odd, but yeah, I mean I think it will
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: be depending on your league makeup and stuff. But like
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I said, I think you can do worse than Andrew
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: harr And I like the flashes.
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: That he showed like year when he was in Oakland
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: or Sacramento.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Sorry, so, uh, let's get into a little bit of
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: the main show that we were talking about and alluding to.
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: Everybody reported to camp and everybody needs a new handmate bone.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: So this is a blood bath that happened just over
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the past two days, like forty eight hours. I'm sure
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: like it's totally shifted around the first and second rounds
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: of drafting already, which is I'm trying to recall a
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: time that this has happened in fantasy baseball in recent
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: times that like, you know, maybe you'll have an injury
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: or here or there peppered throughout spring training, but like
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: this is absurd, right.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Like, uh, this is just this is just weird. Like
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: I you know, I was walking to my car today
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: after work and I was looking like at MLB trade rooms,
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: just like what have I missed? What's happened? Like what's
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: going on? And I'm like, oh, handmate surgery, And I'm like, oh,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: there's another handmads, Like what is there like a new
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: drive line for like your hand. And it was like
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: a bad workout regimen that like everybody got on and
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: injured themselves, Like I can't remember a time like this,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: and it's and it's big names. We're talking to Corbin Carroll,
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Francisco Lindor, Jackson Holiday. I I know Jackson's a little
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: outside that, but there's a lot of folks that hopeful
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: for him and him made injuries are like notorious for
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: zapping your power and causing issues. It's usually like a
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: you know, two month ish type of thing. So we're
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: we're talking opening day definitely in question and this one,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: if you don't let it heal well enough, it'll it'll
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: zap you for like three or four months. And I
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: that I'm worried for these guys. And I don't know
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: how far Corbyn, Carroll and Francisco Lindor fall in drafts
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: as a result, Like you've got to drop drop him
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: down what a few rounds at this point, right, if
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: not further?
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I think that is Actually I'm gonna rattle
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: through all the injuries because I think I'm out on
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: all of the to the point where like I need
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: like a three plus round discount on all these names
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: about to rattle off, because these are not little knick
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: knack injuries. These are not even like oblique strains where
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: I can talk myself into working their way through it
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: in spring training. These are significant, surgery requiring injuries right
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: off the bat. And like you said, like this is
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: going to linger all season long for all these players.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: So I'm Corby and Carrol Right, hanmdmate bone surgery, Francisco
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: Lindor hamdmate bone surgery. It's been announced this afternoon. They
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: locked it in. Jackson Haldy also write hamdmate bone surgery.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: We've got the Blue Jays who Anthony Santander had major
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: reconstructive shoulder surgery out five to six months.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: His season's toast bound in Francis UCL reconstruction. Shane Bieber
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: still has forum fatigue, and that Tommy John arm of
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: his Spencer Schwellenbach opening this season on the sixty dayl
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: with elbow inflammation, Reesulsen out for the season with shoulder surgery.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, Olson for me is done. Like I don't
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: want them in any keeper leagues that, like I need
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: to see consecutive like stretches of health from Olson before
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: I'm even considering rostering him again. But all those other names,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: they're off my draft boards now. Honestly, like Carol and
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Lindore I think could stick.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: But I don't know. I'm not sniffing them before the
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: fourth round right now.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think that's about right, because again
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: we talk about it on this podcast often, like you
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: need reliability early and if you're gambling on those guys
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: at that point, it's it's it's an issue now I
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: will own. Like, I think there's a strategy out there
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: that you have really strong floors. You get like the
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Jose Ramires of the world and things like that. In
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: the first you know, three rounds and then you rattle
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: off at Corbin, Carrol and Francisco Lindoor like a major
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: gamble and you could be just laughing your way to
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: the championship. You could also be done before the season starts.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Like that is a high risk Khyrie Ward strategy. But
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: beyond that, like, the only other guy that I like
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: would be slightly monitoring is Bieber, just because it sounds
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: like they're just they're slow rolling that They're like they've
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: just you know, want to make sure that they have
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: this guy throughout the season. That said he's accepted his
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: player offsc and when he could have gotten to the market.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: That tells you something that he was scared about his
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: medicals and things like that, because otherwise he could have
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: got a pretty gushturing good deal coming off of that season.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: And there's a lot of questions why I did that.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: I think this tells you why. And so I'm with you,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: like this is this is scary news, Like I'm scared
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: for the next day or two, like like did these
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: guys all get hurt getting out of the car walking
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: to the camp? I don't understand, you know, even Schwellenbach
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: like he had been throwing for for weeks and felt
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: great and all of a sudden just a little inflammation
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: creeped up. And so and I know you've been way
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: out on him, and I still like him to degree
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: from a talent perspective, But the busted elbow, but it's
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: like six you put you just put him straight in
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: the sixty day like you didn't have to do that.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's this is a landline, like I'm scared
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: what to come?
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Lindor one really also scares me a
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: lot because even before this handmate surgery, there was talk
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: about because he had an elbow to Brideman surgery. I
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: think in the off season two that like he was
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: possibly like still dealing with that, and then that's kind
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: of what caused him to not be able to play
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: in the WBC and get the insurance policy for Puerto
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Rico was that elbow. And so now you're battling two
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: things coming back and Lindor, because of the defense and
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: the contract, he posts like he has played through a
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: lot of injuries, and that even worries me more that
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: like if he's gonna go out there and play at
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: eighty percent on that handmate bone all season long, I
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: mean you might I run into a season where he
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't crack twenty homers for you, and like that is brutal.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: This is it's a guy who like already like was
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: really Yankee balls down the line to get the most
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: out of that power.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: But now you're adding in the handmate and.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Same thing with Corbyn Carroll too, where at least it's
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit better ballpark and I think you can
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: have a little more faith in the floor for the
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: stolen bases for Corbyn Carroll, but same sort of profile
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: where it's not like the bat speed and the power
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: was otherworldly already, but then you're adding in that handmate, Yikes,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: it is not great. So yeah, I'm totally out. Like
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: I said, I'm I don't think there's a situation I
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: would draft Lindoor personally, because like it would have to
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: fall so far, it would have to be absurd. And
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Carroll's probably like a fourth or fifth rounder.
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: For me because of this.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean, you don't have to go further.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I rot Irony here to go back a year to
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Francisco in New York, a handmaid bron issue and Francisco
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: Alvarez took into like mid season to get like right
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: and again he looked great after that, but it took
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: some time for him to figure things out and it
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: and that's a talented hitter. So I think that's kind
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: of the map that you're looking at here for these guys,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: it's it's I don't think you want to touch this.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And then I mean we we've gotten into holiday
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but I mean on our in all East,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: I sold him. I wonder if there was some feeling
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: that they knew this was coming because they did trade
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: for Blade Blaze Alexander recently to be able to shore
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: up that infield, and now it looks like he's the
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: starting second baseman. But the same thing there where, like
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the profile for Holiday was already pretty weak and it
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: was a volume based profile that and that's it's gonna
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: be tough sledding for Jackson Holiday, I think going forward.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: So the other person that maybe I want to touch
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: on a little bit is Anthony Santander. It is a
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: chance to go down, is like one of the worst
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: contracts ever for the Blue Jay says like this.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Was dreadful at this point.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, because it.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Was a rough first season battling that shoulder and other injuries,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: and I mean a major shoulders surgery, especially like he's
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: no spring chicken, he is thirty one, and so I
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: would be surprised that they get much out of him
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: this year. And they've still got a plenty left on
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: that contract. I mean, they can absorb it in Toronto.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: But wow, what a what a what a turn with
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: all those injuries right there, we are, like I said,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: speaking on release date February eleventh for Top Series one
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Go back into your queue of podcasts one twenty six
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: we covered it came out a little bit early, and honestly,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: we did a pretty good job of hitting all the bases.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Maybe the one thing that is new is we have
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: since discovered when we recorded that podcast the other night,
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: that they have buried a redemption for a nineteen fifty
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: two Mickey Mantle into the product somewhere, and uh brew,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: what are the odds that that's going to a breaker?
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: Extremely high? Extreme, And the odds that everybody throws a
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: big fit about it is also just as high.
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: It's the breaking thing has runs through products at such
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: a high rate that like all these talk about all
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: breakers getting fro the boxes, I don't believe it's true,
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: but they've ripped so much product and it's all visibly
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: done that of course, you see all these things happen,
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: So the odds are high, and that's where it's gonna happen.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: But like I give them credit. If you're gonna pull
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: off a like Chase card, this is a Chase card.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: And don't worry, they.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Did not actually put the fifty two mantle in a
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: pack that would that would be a tops thing to do.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Don't give it to me wrong, that would be a
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: thought it's a redemption. But man, that's the question I
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: have is what's the quality of this fifty two mantle?
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: Like the range of outcomes on this card are massive.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: So if you pull the redemption, do you sell the
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: redemption on the thought that it's like a PSA one
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: mantle with like, you know, flaking on the back, or
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: do you are you going to redeem us thinking like
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: they've got a pristine mantle over there that could like
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: be you know, a massive, massive card. I think that's
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: really what's gonna be entertaining to watch with this one.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe go pick out a little hangar pack
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: here or a blast or something like that, get yourself
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: a fifty two mantle.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, so going to those show notes, I've
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: got a link to the Instagram post for this.
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: If this is the fifty two.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Mantle that they're giving away from the Instagram, it's in
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: pretty good shape that obviously they grade these pretty hard,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: but they'll also kind of factor in the vintage perspective
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: that it's not like one of those like ones that
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: you would send in and get authenticated.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: This is the mantle. It's in good shape.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if it's this one, then yeah, you're you're getting
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: that redemption of that's for sure.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it is gonna be a huge chase because
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: that is one thing that I kind of realized when
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: we were running through the checklist during the podcast on
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: series one, is that there wasn't like a huge, huge
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: standout chase card compared to like what's been in recent products.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: But that's because it was this dismantle card is the
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: chase card. I also, like, I don't know about you,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: but my Instagram feed feeds me reels of like just
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: all sorts of absurd like card related things. And one
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: of the things that like I've ridden really like sucked
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: into is there's like a whole genre of people who
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: will like just be ripping cards, but then we'll be
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: paid by like the people who are watching that if
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: you pay enough, they'll just like cut the pack in half.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: And it's usually like Pokemon cards, and like all seems
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: to be like there's a chargezard. That'd be if they
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: had put the actual mantle in there and like that happened,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: that would have been absolutely hilarious. If you were cutting
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: the fifty two mantle and a half blindly. So the
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: print runs are starting to come out for twenty twenty
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: six Series one, it is way up, so I won't
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: be surprised if there are people out there that are
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: starting to cut some of those packs in half, because
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: it is gonna be a tough set. I think if
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: you're trying to get hits, if you're out there collecting
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: and enjoying ripping Series one, because it's the beginning of
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: baseball season, that's gonna be the only attitude I think
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: that's gonna pay off for you on the set this year.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: And also just disappointing because going into twenty twenty six,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: it looks like it's gonna be tough sledden all year
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: across the board for tops. Okay, well, with that, we're
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: gonna wrap up this section. We're gonna take a quick
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: break and we will be back on the other side
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: to preview the NL Central with Derek Van Riper from
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: The Athletic. The man with the Golden Pipes himself is
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: going to join us talk about is Milwaukee Brewers and
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: the rivals of those brewers. So stick around after the break,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: all right, Welcome back, everybody. We're going to get into
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: our NL Central preview here. This is the fourth division
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: that we are previewing. And to get into this NL Central,
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: no better person than Wisconsin's finest Derek Van Riper from
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the Athletic and Rates and Barrels Milwaukee Brewers fan extraordinaire.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: If you are a Cubs fan, maybe just skip this
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: entire segment because you got You've got Cardinals and Brewers
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: fans talking here for a l Central.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: But DVR, welcome to the podcast again.
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: Hey, thanks for having me back on how you guys doing.
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: We're doing great, We're doing excellent.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: We're trying to stay warm here at the midpoint of February.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: We're speaking here on February eleventh doing these previews. So
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: we just had a bunch of players go down with
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: injury today as we've been reporting back to camp. But
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna have too much that's going
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: to impact overall here in the NL Central. Before we
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: get into that, though, DVR, let everybody know where they
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: can find your work, listen to your podcast, and reach
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: out to you on socials.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, most of the time, I'm just over on Blue
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: Sky DVR over there, DVR dot, best Guy dot Social.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: I didn't change the end part like you're supposed to.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: Rates and barrels is the name of the show, or
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: on YouTube and anywhere you listen to podcasts five days
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: a week this time of year. We've done a bunch
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: of position previews already, so we just wrapped up that series.
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: We'll start team previews next week. So yeah, any writing
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: I do is going to be get the athletic as well.
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: I have some hitter rankings coming out probably before the weekend.
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: I was going to drop those on Thursday, but with
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: all the injuries from the first day of camp, decided
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: to wait it out, wait for every team to report,
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: wait for the reporters to get through the scrums and
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: relay the information of all the broken players, and then
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: put that list out. So that'll probably be like Friday
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: afternoon this week.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. I mean this is
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: actually a call out to all the players there. If
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: you need a spare hamdmate, I will give mine to you.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if you can do handmate domations,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: but we need to figure it out as a baseball community,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: that is for sure. Okay, let's get into this NL Central.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: The way we're going to run through this is we're
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: going to each do one buy and one sell from
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: every team based on current ADP data. So we're looking
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: mostly at draft champions from the beginning of January and through.
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: Today, and then we're just gonna banter back and forth.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: We don't know each other's picks, so I think that's
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: always the best part about these previews is seeing if
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: somebody has a buy, that's somebody else's sell and vice versa,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: so we can get into it, mix it up a
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: little bit. As always with these previews, we also are
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: running through the division alphabetically, just the way that I
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: sort my baseball cards all my comments, and so when
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: I'm in my NL Central box, first up are those
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Chicago Cubs. So, like I said, if you're a Cubs fan,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: maybe this will be a little harsh on this team,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: but it is. They are coming off of a solid
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: season ninety two and seventy overall, got that wild Card,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: but did lose to the Brewers in the in the playoffs,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: and just kind of Jeremy and I talk about this
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: all the time about this Cubs team. It is perpetually frustrating,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: I think if you're a Cubs fan, because they should
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: spend like a Yankee's or even the Dodgers. They have
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: the wherewithal, they have the fan base, but just never
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: really pushed themselves across that line. This offseason, they lost
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker but replaced him with Alex Bregman in the lineup,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: then went out and made a trade for Edward Cabrera
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: and also brought back Chota Imanaga, and then they've really
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: shored up that bullpen behind Daniel Palencia, who battled a
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: shoulder entry down the stretch.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: In twenty twenty five.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: We have Phil Mayton, Hunter Harvey joining this bullpen, and
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: otherwise it's looking like relatively the same team overall. Most
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: projections are putting them to finish ahead of the Brewers.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Again here in the inn Al Central for twenty twenty
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: That's why they play the games.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: I think, is what I'll say.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: But DVR, since you're the guest, you get to make
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: the first pick here, who is your buye from the
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Chicago Cubs.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: I look at the Pakoda standings for the upcoming season.
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: The Pakoda projections have the Cubs ten wins ahead of
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: the Brewers, and really, I don't know, I think they're
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: better on paper. I mean, I think if I said
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: which team is going to win more games, I would
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: put my actual hard earned money behind the Cubs. And
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: I say that as a Brewers fan, so it pains
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: me to say that. But I don't think the gap
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: is ten games. I actually like Ian half this year
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: in terms of ADP. Very boring player does the thing
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: almost every year. Right, it's two forties average, but it's
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: a good OBP. He's said at least twenty homers three
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: straight seasons, only fell three short and twenty twenty two.
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: Otherwise he could have made it five years in a
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: row where he's done that. K rate's been solid, still
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: below twenty five percent, double digit barrel rates just about
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: every year of his career as well. The weird part
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: of his profile, the stolen bases basically got cut in
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: half last year. But I did notice he followed a
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: ball off his shin in July and maybe that's when
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: he stopped running for those final two months, because the
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: stolen bases did dry up a little bit at the
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: end of the year. But he's also in a walk year,
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: and we've seen a lot of guys in their walk
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: years actually pick up their stolen bases. A lot and
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: try to show value in that facet of the game.
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: And one thing that I do not listen to as
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: a Brewers fan is Ian Happ's podcast. He seems like
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: a nice guy, loves coffee. You'd probably get along with
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: him great. But one of our discord members, Maddy g
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: let me know that Hap has talked about doing speed
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: training this offseason on his podcast. So I'm at least
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: buying into the idea that with healthier legs, thirteen to
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: fifteen bags as possible again. And he's been so efficient
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: in the past, who knows, maybe he can get you
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: twenty plus. And I think the last thing I'll say
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: about this Cubs team, top to bottom, one of the
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: better lineups in the National League, So I think the
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: runs and RBIs are going to be there in a
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: pretty big way relative to where Hap goes consistently out
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: side the top one fifty.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Overall, Yeah, I think this is an easy buy that
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: it's a lot of the reasons that you said, And
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I think the other component is we still are adjusting
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: as a fantasy baseball community to seeing that batting average
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: in the two forties and not realizing that's actually much
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: more palatable nowadays with the league batting average means so
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: much lower than it used to be back in the day.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: The other component here is I remember back from from
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: f Paz where Bubb and the Bloom kind of had
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: that panel where they were just talking about the way
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: that you win a lot of these draft champions leagues
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: in higher stix leagues is boring old veterans, and that's
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I think exactly why he inhaps draft price overall is
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: just not matching up with our projections that Rasball have
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: him in like the one thirties. Last year he finished
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: in the player Rader in the one twenties. Every JDP
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: right now is like in the one eighties, and so
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: it's just easy money. He's a set it and for
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: get it like outfielder three. I love Ian Happ, So
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: I think this is a great choice.
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: Brew Do you agree? Is he your sell? Or are?
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: Are you buy in him as well?
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I'm not that bold. I'm not gonna sell on the
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: first the first buy here, I'm I'm fine with uh
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: with half. I think it's an easy buy. And it's
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: actually almost the same exact logic for what I'm using
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: for Alex Bregman. I was actually very surprised how far
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: down Bregman's going, considering that pretty much the same thing
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: he when he's healthy, which you know in the you know,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: last three of the last four seasons, he's been been
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: there the whole time. We had some issues last year.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: But he's a twenty five homer bat, he's a ninety
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: to one hundred RBI guy. He's gonna score pretty much
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: the same amount of runs hit hit two sixty and
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: he's getting dressed, you know, drafted right by like Jordan
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: Westburg and you Henosuarez, like I love both of those guys,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: but they've got big warts and the only thing with
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: Bregman is he's slow his glasses and you know he's
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: gonna steal a base maybe two and that and that's
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: about it. But you know exactly what you're getting, and
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: so it's it's low risk, medium reward, I think, is
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: maybe the way to look at it. But at the
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: point of he's going, you know, basically a tenth round guy,
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: the seventh, eighth, third basement off the board, I have
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: no problem with that. And there's nothing that's changed over
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: the last few years when he was going multiple multiple
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: rounds higher. So very very similar reasoning that you guys
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: have on Ian Happ. I'm right there with Alex Bragman
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: a little bit earlier in the draft, but again a
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: guy I feel very comfortable with, and I'm actually surprised
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: with the signing he didn't get more of a draft
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: hike here in the in the early going. So we'll
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: see easy, boring veterans. That's the way to go.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I like that, especially at third base,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: where like the back into the third base pool is brutal.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: That like, if you can find somebody that is set
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: it and forget it, like Alex Bragman, that's a great pick.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get into these cells DVR, who you
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: saw on from the Chicago Cubs.
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: I just think he's so expensive in the profile, so volatile.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: I'm not drafting Pete crow Armstrong if I have to
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: do it. At the round two to three turn kind
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: of goes around pick thirty a lot. Sometimes he falls.
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: If he falls to the three four turn, maybe I
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: would think about it. It really depends, but I think
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: the pocket of players that goes just after him on
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: my hitter ranks, it's a lot of power hitting first
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: basemen that have really safe floors. It's Pete Alonso, Devers,
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: Matt Olsen, like all those kinds of players are going
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: to go in that same range. If you want to
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: take somebody that could do a little bit of everything,
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: James Wood is out there, and I actually think James
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: Wood has a more stable collection of skills as a hitter,
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: and because it hits the ball so much harder than
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: Pete kro Armstrong does and doesn't have the same brutal
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: splits against lefties that Pete kro Armstrong does, I'd rather
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: actually take the chance on a riskier profile with Wood
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: than with PCAF. I'm gonna take one of those guys,
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: but we saw it last year, twenty seven point two
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: percent care against lefty's fifty nine WRC plus still drop
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: in the order. His glove is so good they're gonna
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: play him every day. I think he's going to be
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: a really good player in the long run. I think
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: there's some similarities to a guy I watched for a
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: long time Milwaukee, Carlos Gomez, where the rodeo profile was
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: really volatile and it wasn't like sabermetrically what you wanted,
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: but he'd still crank out first round value some years
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: because of that power speed combination. So what I see
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: as a guy who's just you know, really really pole happy,
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: the league had a plan for him. Only six of
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: his thirty one homers came in the second half. It
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: was a span of sixty one games. I just think
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: it's gonna take a little bit of time before he
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: puts another season like the one he just had in
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty five together.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair that, especially when you've got
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: James Woods sitting right there and you know that you
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: can get the power production consistently, where Pico Armstrong just
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: chases so much. I think it's a good kind of
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: call out there as well. As Pico Armstrong is maybe
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: like the most dependent on format and situation player I
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: can think of. That goes early that you got to
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: know how you draft. He's awful, I think, and head
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: to head leagues, because you might get zero some weeks
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: and you might get bananas other weeks. You need something
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: a little more steady. But yeah, I can definitely see
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: the flaws in the PCA's game and see where you're
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: coming from. Brew you were kind of perking up. Was
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: this maybe your cell as well? It's it was. It
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: was very close.
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: This was like a forty five to fifty five split
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: for me, and you know the forty five on PCA
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: and Cool. I know you're a PCA lover here, so
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: I just I didn't want to be ostracized this early
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: in the podcast discussion, but yeah, I'm right there with you.
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: Both would and PCA both had pretty rough second halfs
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: and PCA's profile is a little bit i'd say up
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: and down. That doesn't mean, you know, it's not gonna
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: kinda work out in the long run, but that's kind
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: of a headache from a Rodo perspective, just to deal
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: with day and day out. So I'd say away, I
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: think the price is just too much. I'm a guy
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: that wants the first four or five rounds to have
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: some good floor to it, and I'm looking at PCA
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: and I can see a floor and it's much much lower.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: And that's that's where I would probably be afording him.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: So I love the pick. I almost made the pick myself,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: but I sold James Wood already on a different division,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: so I'm not gonna, you know, double down here in
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: the in the all those young outfielders that seemed to
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: strike out left and right in the second half last year.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: So for for my cell, going with a second baseman
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs, Nico Horner, I think last year, right,
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: I've sold Nico like three or four years in a row,
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: because I still don't understand how he's the fourth second
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: basement off the board. Guy that's like got mid single
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: digits power, and if you're mid single digits power, what
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: else happens? You also don't drive in runs. He's he's
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: two seasons removed from a season where he drove in
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: forty eight runs across one hundred and fifty games. Like that,
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: I think that takes talent to be that low. And
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: you know, he did make it up to the top
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: of the lineup at the very end of last year,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: but with Brave been signing, I think he goes right
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: back down to the towards the bottom of the line
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: up here, and I think the rum production's not there.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you're looking at a guy that could hit
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: to eighty, but he could also have five homers and
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: fifty RBIs and I get the steals and things like that,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: but it's at the price point, Like I said, the
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: fourth second basement off the board, Like, let me wait
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: one hundred picks later and go for like a Matt
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: McLain or even like Ajrree Pelonco, who I'm still letting
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: that high on and I feel like I'm not getting
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: that big of a difference in overall value. So I've
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: sold Nico Horner before I'm sell them again. I just
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: the profile leaves too many big coals for you to
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: make up on the power perspective long term to have
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: that happen with a high end second basement.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: I think that's all very fair.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: DVR, what do you think about Nico Horner? Where is
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: he coming in on your hitter rankings?
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: I think what he did in twenty twenty three is
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: still possible. That's sort of like the upper end sort
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: of outcome, and like half, I think this is a
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: walk gear for Horner. I think he enders the season
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: with completely healthy legs. He'll run a bit more than
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: he is season ago, but that power is just not
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: coming through, right. It's just not his game, right, So
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: you're giving that up. I think it depends on what
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: I've done earlier. He's a build specific player for me.
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: I think last year I've crossed about ten teams. I
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: had him in one spot in Knick Labor fifteen team League.
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: It was just because I was chasing speed. I don't
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: think he's bad at ADP, but I understand not wanting
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: to push too many of your bags on too few players,
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: because if you lose a guy like that on the IL,
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: it really hurts you and rode leagues in the category
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: when you can't find a thirty five or forty Steel
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: equivalent type player on the wire.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: All right, my cell, I'm going with Cad Horton. I'm
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: every time I'm scrolling through the ADP, I don't get it.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Like where Cad Horton's going right now is right in
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: kind of the spot where you're taking.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: Probably like a third or fourth pitcher.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Overall, it's just around pick two hundred and so his
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: teammates Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd are both kind of
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: floating around him a little bit. But I'd rather have
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: both of those arms over Caate Horton, who I just don't.
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: See the upside and the profile overall.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: It's not a fantastic ground ball rate. The stuff plus
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: does not pop off the page. The strikeouts don't pop
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: off the page. This is a guy who also I
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: think people are enamored by that two sixty seven ra
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: from last year, the bid for the Rookie of the Year,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: and they don't they overlook that the FIP was a
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: three fifty eight, the x FIP was.
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: A four to twenty seven.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I think he's a very serviceable back end starter, but
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: like he's not being drafted in that range. This is
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: a guy that should really be drafted I think more
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: in like the three hundred three fifty range to round
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: out your your overall rotation. But I think just the
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: hype that came through with that rookie year going eleven
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: and four, good luck trying to do that again, especially
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: in today's day and age, that like pulling those types
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: of wins out of a hat with a player like this.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: It just also worries me that the Major League control
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: in terms of the walks it had really backed up
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: on him in twenty twenty four, And you wonder, is
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: that coming back. Is Horton going to be the guy
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: that is a two and a half walk guy per
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: nine in the major leagues going forward?
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: I'm not totally sure.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: So there's just so many other pictures that I think
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: provide better strikeout upside better situations overall than Kate Horton
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: is right now in terms of his draft price.
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm okay with that world where Kate
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: Horton is like only starting for you for his home starts,
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: and that's not what you want for a guy that
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: goes where he's been going in drafts so far.
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the last I think Chicago pitchuer I invested in
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: was like Kyle Hendrix and like his heyday. Like it's
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: just it's a hard place to invest in in players.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: And to that point, like you go further down the
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: draft and you're getting guys you know, like a Hearson
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: Walldrip or you know, even playing like Logan Henderson or
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: something like that, and like you can wait many many
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: rounds and get a similar upside type of arm and
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: honestly maybe even a better better outcome. So yeah, I
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: have no qualms here. But like I said, I think
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: I just think in principle not to draft clubs pictures
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: so they might have nothing to do with fantasy analysis
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: and everything to do with by Cardinals fandom. I'm going
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: to say there it is.
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: There's the hater dat.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on to the Cincinnati Reds next, which
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: are coming off a surprise wild card year thanks to
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: the collapse of the New York Mets last year. But
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: it has been a team that has been up and coming.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: They've got a younger nucleus and they added to it
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: by bringing back a u Hennehosuarez recently to play d H.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: You're gonna have a full year of Cabrian Hayes at
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: third base for this team. Of course, in the nine
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: hole for Cabrian Hayes because he is still the same
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: bat he always has been. You've also got an addition
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: of JJ de blay Lede coming into town. And then
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: otherwise the rotation is what it was last year. It's
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: a strong young rotation with Hunter Green, Abbott, Andrew Abbott,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: Brady Singer, Nicolodolo, Chase Burns, and then they also had
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Emelio Pagan come back to anchor the back into that bullpen.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: One of the best home parks, if not the best
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: home park probably in baseball to chase, especially for bats.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: So lots of factors here going on with the Reds.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Some new veterans, some up and coming stars, some exciting
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: pitching in a bad ballpark, DBR. Where are you gonna
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: go for your by on the Cincinnati Reds.
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a weird team. It's surprising how infrequently they
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: develop above average hitters as an organization. I've been stunned
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: looking back through like the last twenty years. It's a
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: much shorter list than you'd expect. Obviously, Joey Vado is
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: like a huge hit but for the ballpark especially, and
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: I realized, like WRC plus gets park adjusted, they just
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: don't seem to have that part of the organization figured out.
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: Their pitching program is actually good. I think I trust
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: their pitchers more than I did at any point in
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: the last decade. Some of that's stuff, but some of
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: that's also like they've figured something out with Andrew Abbott
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: and some of the guys that are getting better results
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: and expected. Maybe the extreme flyballers are less risky than
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: we thought, because not all flyballs are the same Anyway.
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: This is all a long way of saying, despite their
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: inability to find enough quality bats to be a good
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: lineup year and year out, I'm going to take one
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: more chance on Matt McClain. I think he's going still
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: outside the top two hundred overall. We know he lost
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: all of twenty twenty four with pretty significant injuries and
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: even trying to play around stuff last year fifteen homers
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: eighteen steals, pretty ugly slash line to go with it,
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: but a forty percent hard hit rate after that long break,
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: and I think there is a legitimate twenty homer bat
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: here with a lot of speed. I think it's just
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: having that full off season of health and preparation. I
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: just saw a report from one of the writers in
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati that he's added twelve pounds of muscle. So maybe
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: Matt McLain's finally out of rehab mode, was finally in
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: regular prep mode this winter and can come through and
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: make good on some of the things we saw from
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: him back in twenty twenty three.
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is great. And on top of
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: it too, like shoulders just take.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Longer to recover from, and that was such a major injury.
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at it right now. I'm off the cuff.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: I didn't actually expect it to be this way, But
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three his arm strength was eighty six
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: point three miles, but now were putting him in the
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: sixtieth percentile on Stevan last year is only eighty three
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: point two, putting him in the forty first percentile. Recently,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Jeff Zimmermann was writing that there's a pretty strong correlation
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: between like arm strength and bat speed that he's been finding,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: and so I think, if anything, that also shows that
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Matt McClain still wasn't even back to his old self
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: last year at that shoulder that you know, you give
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: him another offseason to rehabit. Who knows, maybe we'll be
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: getting back to that twenty twenty three. Matt McLain here
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks brew Who are you gonna
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: buy from the Reds?
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's never a wise decision to buy something
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: that doesn't have a starting gig. But I'm going to
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: just because I like to go deep and cool. You
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: where I'm going because we discussed this guy before. But
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go on the on the train that's probably
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: destined to not land where I wanted to, which is
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Will Benson. The skills are there, it's exciting profile. He
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: may strike out a ton, he may not walk enough,
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: he might not get the good role, but for the
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: draft price of free, there's a ton of power in
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: that bat. There's a ton of speed in that profile.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: This is the kind of guy that you know, he
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: looked better last year. He didn't run much, but the
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: two prior years he did run quite significantly. And he's
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: got ninety fourth percentile spript speed, so that we know
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: the guy can run. From a power perspective, he's got
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: extremely high barrel rates ex of velocities. Bat speed's kind
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: of middling, so we'll see. But again, we're talking about
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: playing in Cincinnati, and when you look at TJ. Friedel, Novelli, Marte,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: the guy's in that outfield. But I'm not seeing like
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: a really big stopper here for a guy that could,
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: you know, get crazy hot. I know he's the kind
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: of guy who's gonna hit three homers in the game
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: and then go over for the next five. I'm okay
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: with that. This is a guy I'm looking at the
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: back end of a draft and hoping for a lottery ticket.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: And this lottery ticket could hit twenty five homers, or
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: it could be on waiver wires, you know, in in April.
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: And but again I'm kind of looking deep in the
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: draft to the guy that really could bring some power
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: and not hurt you as much elsewhere in categories. And
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: I think that's gonna be ben since so I'm willing
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: to roll the dice here for the price of free.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: And if I'm right, it's not that hard. If I'm wrong,
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: well nobody's gonna remember it.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah it is average ADP of seven twelve, So yeah
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: it is. And on top of it, like, I'm just
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: proud of you because we've spent years talking about my
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: love of Joe Adell because of this like same sort
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: of high risk, high reward profile. And I think I
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: finally have rubbed up on you because this is left
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: handed Joe Odell in Cincinnati.
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: So just brought my buy down slightly because I do
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: not want to. I will still not buy Joe Adell.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: I still won't do that, but that's not an unreasonable
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: comp So.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: Okay, that leaves me with my buy.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: I'm going to the top of the table here, baby,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: I'm buying Elaedela Cruz at ADP of nine because on
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: my rankings in the first round, Ellie's actually number five
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: for me.
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: So that's the.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Way that I would be running is Judge Otani wit
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: sodo Ellie. And so I think that people are really
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: forgetting about the injury that he was nursing last year,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: it really really hampered his speed that like you know,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: those thirty seven stolen bases still came through for you,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: but in the second half it really really dropped off,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: where he ended up only stealing twelve bases hit two
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: thirty six. But because it was a lower body injury
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: as well, and it sounded like it was a major
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: strain of the quad I believe is what it was,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: and so what Ellie was battling through that just totally
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: takes out your entire lower half from being able to hit.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: I think we're seeing a rebound year from Ellie where
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: you're looking at something like twenty five point fifty with
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: like a two sixty two sixty five average. And I
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: know it's a little bit risky just because he does
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: swing and miss, but I think this team in Cincinnati
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: goes as Ellie goes, and they're gonna let him play
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: all the way through it. They've already shown they'll let
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: him play through a significant injury, which is also I
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: think huge form moving him up in the first round.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: It reminds me a lot of like Manny Machado, where
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: Manny Michado posts, and that's a big skill for him.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: I think seeing that year from Ellie, even though he
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: was hurt.
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: Put up one hundred and sixty two games. I really
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: respect that.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: So even though it is a first round pick, I'm
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: even moving him further up in the first round. If
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: those first four players, those first four bats are off
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: the board in terms of jud Joe, tani, Witt and Soto,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: I'm popping Ellie right away at the number five.
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: Had him sitting right there next to Corbyn Carrol. That
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: gap got wider as a result of the news about
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: Carol that we got on Wednesday. But I see the
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: case for him as a top five hitter again. I
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: think we can easily lose sight of the injuries that
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: are impacting players when they're still out there playing through it.
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: And in Ellie's case, there's a clear drop off in
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: the power and the speed in the second half last year.
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: I don't think he was a top one hundred hitter
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: in the second half. But they were basically choosing between
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: him and I think Santiago Espinal, and they said sixty
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: percent of Ellie is as good as one hundred percent
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: of Espinal, which is probably probably right.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: In their in their case, yeah, it worked out. Yeah,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: And you look at a guy that could be like
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: the number one player th end of the season. Ellie
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: could be. Not saying that he's going to be, but
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: if you look down the rankings there, you quickly run
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: out of guys You're like, they could do enough. You know,
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: he could easily have a Ronald Acuna type season where
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: he really goes forty seventy or something like that. Is
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: it gonna happen? Who knows? And it's gonna be one
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: of those that he's so hot and cold. If he
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: just stays hot all year, it could be unbelievable. So
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: I don't have a problem with this one.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And also twenty four doesn't turn twenty five until
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: January of next year, so it's a young bat, which
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: also kind of gets lost just because we've been in
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: the Lee hype days for so long. Let's get into
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: those cells, DVR. Who you selling from the Reds?
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: I can't get into Emilio Pagan at full price. I
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: think he's a good reliever. I'm happy for him as
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: a human that he got paid a multi year deal.
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: I think there's a chance he can still keep the
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: job all year. I think he's been generally underrated for
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: most of his career, but he's thirty five. Projections all
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: point you to a high threes, low fours era, kind
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: of an average ish whip, which for a guy that's
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: priced like a top ten closer, is actually less than
• 59:45
  Speaker 4: what you need. I just I can't bank on this
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: coming back to twenty twenty five levels, So I think
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: it's a little bit of an artifact of this being
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: drafted a whole season. I think once we get more
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: into typical drafts where people are making waiver wire pickups,
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: maybe he's among the players that WI actually come down
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: just a little bit in price. But I'm definitely not
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: in right now. On Pegan.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: I this was myself as well. It was a pretty
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: easy one. There's a dude with a twenty eight twenty
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: eight point seven percent ground ball rate and a one
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: point three homer per nine in Cincinnati last year, a
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: ERA of two eighty eight, a fifth of three seventy two.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: Somehow this worked for an entire season. I have no
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: clue how, but I don't see if holding up for
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: two straight seasons. It's it's regression city for Mio Pegan
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: that it's an easy, easy sell. I think it's way
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: too high of a draft pick to be spending on
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: a closer like this, especially for a Reds team that
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: is looking to compete. They have Tony Santian right behind him,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: They'll find a different route if Pegan blows up.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think actually speaks more to the closure market
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: this year, at this point in time of knowing how
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: many guys we actually call a closer than anything else,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: because being like the back of the top ten closers
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: is like towards the you know, the top percentile of
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: guys that actually might have a job. I think that's
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: all that is in this draft price. So I agree
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of risk here. The only spot you're
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: keeping him here is a keeper league reh him for
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: a cheap price because last year that's really the only
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: place you want to want to invest here. I'm not
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: gonna go to the pitching side. I'm gonna go with
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: the guy that I really just don't understand the profile
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: and understand the hype. And that's no Valley Marte. If
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: you look at the savant page in Marte like, it
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: looks terrible and there's really no other way to say
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: that as that for he has a strong arm and
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: he can run, you know, if you look at comps
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: here we're talking Cordy Lee and Dayton minors or the
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: two of the top three, and then maybe J. T.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: Real Mutu, But I'm not sure if I want to
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: use that from a twenty twenty five version of JT. Realmuto.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: And so you know, yes, he hit fourteen homers last
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: year's ten stole ten bases, and you know, maybe you know,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: two thirds of a season and it could project and
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: you could look at a twenty twenty guy. But underneath
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: the covers, just we're talking weak contact rates, poor plate discipline,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: and this is also a guy that's not made the
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: best life choices. Let's just call it what it is.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: You know, PD expenses, you know two years ago. I
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: just feel like this is a very volatile profile for
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: a guy that's going relatively high from an outfield perspective,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: one forty two ADP. I think there's just a lot
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: of other guys around there that i'd much I have
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: like much more faith in drafting. Like Marte is the
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: guy I feel like could get injured, could go in
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: a big slump, or could just make a pro life choice.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: And I don't want to have to be on the
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: bus when that happens. So, uh, there's where will Benson
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: getting play in time? I'm switching out Martel. I'm just
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: trying to manifest destiny here, all right.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, DVR this was a hot name at first
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: pitch Arizona, and I was kind of also a little
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: bit equally surprised that, like, certainly it popped off the page.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: But when you're looking underneath the cover with Marte, I
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: always kind of notice the same thing. What's your take
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: on Marte going into twenty twenty six.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: I think if you're a believer, you're probably telling yourself
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 4: that the plate skills he showed at lower levels the
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: minor leagues, and even as he advanced double A and
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: triple A sub twenty percent kraids, walk rates at are
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: above ten percent. I mean, you have to believe those
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: skills are going to shine through because without that, a
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: two fifty two to sixty type hitter with a three
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: hundred or three ten OBP is extremely violatbile. It could
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: end up in the bottom half of the lineup. It
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: could have trouble, you know, staying on the field every
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: single day. As a writing you never know, like there's
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: always that sort of like built in slips into a
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: smaller platoon risk sort of profile for a player like this.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: I get it, there's some power, there's some speed. I'm
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: with brew on this one. I just I can't get
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: on board with Noley Marte at the price. It feels
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: more like a keeper dynasty angle just being kind of
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: forced into redraft for people that want to take him
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: where he's going.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah or Coolly. We talk about so often how I
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: liked my clubhouse atmospheres on my fantasy teams. Oh, that's true,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: and like, you know, it's just you have to have
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: the right leaders in the clubhouse, and I don't know
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: that this is it. And so that's the intangibles here
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: for me, which again you can't can't bank on. But
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: like I also just don't feel great about it overall.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's all fair.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get into the Milwaukee Brewers, the division champions
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: from last year a fantastic season, led the league with
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: ninety seven wins, then made it all the way to
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: the NLCS where they ran into that behemoth, the Los
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: Angeles Dodgers. But it was a fun season of these
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee Brewers team. They're pretty much running it back at
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: the lineup position. They did ship out Caleb Durbin just
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: this week, so there is an open spot on the
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: infield at third.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: Base slash shortstop.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: Currently roster resource has David Hamilton taking third base. Actually,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: right after the Durbin trade, I think they had Jet
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: Williams saying that shortstop.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: So I'm on team Jet. I hope that he pulls
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: through that that would be awesome for us. But you've also.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Got a rotation that is Freddie Pera also lists but
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: still pretty strong. Woodruff, miss Rowski, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: Logan Henderson. And then the starting pitching in the minors
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: is maybe amongst the best in the majors. I would
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: say between Sprote, Robert Gasser, Coleman Crowe, Carlos Rodriguez, Kylahn Harrison,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: and Shane Drohan. Now you know at least two of
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: those guys, given the Milwaukee Brewers, are gonna be viable
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: fantasy assets and probably like entertained for the NLCI Young
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: just knowing the way that this team has run, DVR
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: feels weird talking Brewers with you, especially when I'm gonna
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: have to get into the cell and denigrate one of
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: your players on your favorite team, but maybe talk to
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: us a little bit about your experience of the twenty
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: twenty five Milwaukee Brewers, because it was a fun squad,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: and then give us your bye.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: I think it took a little while for the disappointment
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: of how harshly the season ended to fade, But then
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: I did this episode the WTMJ brew pre impost game show,
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: host Dominic Patronio had a play a version of Jeopardy
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 4: bizinga like a like a season recap of the Brewer
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: season and playing that with a few other folks in
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: the in the local media, it kind of like rekindled
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 4: all these goofy things that happened and some of the
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: guys that made contributions to the team, and it made
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: you realize, like, yeah, that actually was the best regular
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: season in franchise history. And there was just an absurd
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: stretch in the middle of the year where they didn't
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: see but they were gonna lose. And Andrew Vaughan was
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: the greatest minor in season trade pickup ever. Like you know,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: they they traded a pitcher that didn't want to be
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: in Milwaukee anymore and got a guy that stuck at
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: triple a and the White Sox organization, and no one
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: could get him out right, Like, there are all these
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: crazy things like that that were happening. So I do think,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: you know, time sort of helps you refocus after a
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: harsh exit like that. And then of course there was
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: Jacob Mizerowski, who for a stretch looked like one of
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: the best pitchers in the league. And I know people were, well,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: they were genuinely pissed that he was an All Star
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: in some cases, but the All Star Game is a
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: showcase that's supposed to be entertainment. I don't really know
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 4: what we're expecting the All Star Game to be at
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: this point. So I thought it was okay. But again,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: I'm a Brewers fan, so why wouldn't I think that's okay.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: There were some stuff that happened during the rookie year
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: for miz that was interesting. He had a comebacker to
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: the shin against the Cubs that seemed to unravel him
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: for a few starts. There was a point at the
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: end of the regular season where we didn't know what
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: his role was going to be in the playoffs, and
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: then he actually pitched really well in the playoffs. All
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: things considered, you add up all the innings he threw
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: one hundred and forty one and the third innings between
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: Triple A Milwaukee regular season and postseason, So you think,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: wait a minute, he could go one seventy five or
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: one eighty in the regular season. If he's healthy and efficient.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: He's not really going to have massive innings restrictions. And
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 4: as you can see just watching him, the stuff is
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: as good as anybody in baseball. So I guess the
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: more I just kind of reflect on what Misrowski did,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: even though it was in a very unusual pattern upon
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 4: arrival and throughout the second half, I have a hard
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: time saying he's not a great buy. Where he's going
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: right now, there's this huge cluster of really good young pitchers.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: It kind of starts with Chase Burns and Nolan McClain
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: and it runs all the way down fifty to seventy
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: five picks later. Miserowski's in there, Cam Schlitzer's in there,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: Trey y Savage is in there, and Sheian kind of
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: counts in that group. I think for me too, and
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 4: I want to have exposure to that group. Like the
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 4: more I look at them, like generally, I think that's
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: a very good group of young pitchers that will make
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: big time contributions for their respective teams this year. And
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: I think the thing about drafting right now versus drafting
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: five or six weeks from now is we don't have
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: greape Rout League and Cactus League dominance from those guys,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: driving up the prices even further. Right we also don't
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: know if they're gonna make it unscathed and healthy through
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: spring training. But I think there's a little bit of
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: a by window if you believe in those guys right now,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: or you're getting them cheaper now than you will in
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: five or six weeks.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: I think that's yeah, that's a great call.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: And I love where he's going too, because like you
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: can go in and he just.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: Like he gives you a huge upside.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: Is like a number two where if you go like
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: a Logan Web is your number one and pop Missierroowski
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: as your number two, you could really do some damage.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: I think in rot leagues of Missiowski, fall works out
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: that it feels like all of the risk is already
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: baked into his current ADP that you look at the
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: stuff plus and it's a it's incredible, I uh, you're
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: making me regretting trading him to you in our autonew league.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: Ah, well, you know what, it could be a bumpy road.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: You never know.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: We saw the command go in and out at times.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: But I think the thing that that Eosarus pointed out
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: last time we talked about him on rates and barrels
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: was just that Misroowski throws that slider at ninety four,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: and that's the pitchy commands the best. And I think
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: slider command might be just as important as fastball command
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: and the grand scheme of things. And I think beyond that,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: Misrewski has more than two pitches. Like, if you only
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 4: had a fastball on a slider, I'd be worried about
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: the lack of fastball command. But he has two other
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: pitches that he seems like he's becoming more comfortable throwing.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: So I think we have seen that that first step
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: from you know, I think I think at the worst
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: they've called him like a carnival trick.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: He's not.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: He's he's becoming a pitcher. We were seeing that evolution
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: play out in front of our eyes.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: Yes, I think that's all fair. All right, Jeremy, where
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: are you gonna go with per year By on the Brewers.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm gonna go similar to a degree and
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: I'm going young pitcher, but I'm going a little bit
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: further back in the draft. I'm going Logan Henderson. I
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: think Henderson it would potentially be in that same group
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: that we just talked about, which I fully agree, love
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: that group. I'm gonna be drafting a number of guys
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: in that range if he, first of all, would have
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: been given a full chance last year, which I mean,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure what the Brewers were trying to
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: do there. It felt like they had a guy that
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: could really make some ways and they just decided he
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: needed more time in Triple A. And then you know,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: injuries also are at play here. But this is a
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: guy that has really good control. I know he's more
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: of a two pitch pitcher kind of as what he
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: showed in the majors, but I think he has more
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: like he just only needed to use the two pitches
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: and the limited you know, games that he ultimately played,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: and I think that, you know, you're looking at a
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: guy that's going to be able to provide pretty strong
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: innings like he's I think he can go deep into games.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: I think he really can kind of withhold a full season.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: You know, again, he hasn't pitched deep historically he has
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: as far as innings within the season, so it'll be
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: interesting to see how they handle him coming off of injuries.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: But again, at the draft price, we are talking, you know,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: quite a ways down like two eighty ADP. And I
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: think he's got a pretty clear spot to go here
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: from a rotation coming out of the spring training. So
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: I really like Logan Henderson. I think that he can
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: do some things surprising folks. And I think you know,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: we're gonna be talking about right up there with some
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: of those other guys that we just talked about, so
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: cheap version, I'll go to the cheaper version of Misraowski
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: here Logan Henderson.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: I'm a sucker for change up first guys, And I
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: think you make a good point where like you on pitching,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: especially when you're going into a draft, unless you're in
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: like a draft and whole situation, if you're in a
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: league that has waivers and fab you can take somebody
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: like Logan Henderson because he's penciled into the rotation for
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: at least a month.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: Okay, I had to do it.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: I'm buying Andrew vaugh I'm I'm kind of shocked by
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: the draft price, Like his current ADP is going pretty late.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: For somebody who is so incredibly good.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: It's round pick three hundred, and I mean, what was
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: there not to like in that profile when he came
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: over from the Brewers. This is a guy who absolutely
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: mashed and col went third overall. Everyone when he was
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: taken third overall was like, yep, that makes sense, that's great.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: Went to the White Sox. And it's just very clear
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: that the White Sox the way that they have always
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: approached batters at the plate. I don't know what it is,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: but they've just never bothered to teach plate discipline and
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: that really killed Andre Vaughan. When he came over to
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: the Brewers, it was like night and day. It turned
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: right back on. When you would watch him in the box,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: the confidence was back. He was teeing up the pitches
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: that he was looking for. The Brewers gave him the
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: coaching that he needed after coming out of the White Sox.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: And this is a guy who's only twenty seven, uh.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, the babit wasn't even like otherworldly when he
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: was with the Brewers at three twenty eight. It was
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: a three eight, three seventy five, four ninety three slash
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: line of one for two WC plus with nine homers
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: over sixty four games.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: I'm buying.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: There's nobody in Milwaukee coming for his job, I don't think,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: and the Brewers have every incentive to just let him
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: cook in the middle of that lineup all year. The
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: draft price at three hundred in a week first base
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: class like this, I'm buying all day on Anjuwon.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they didn't bring back Reese Hoskins, which helps a lot.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: Like that's the key difference on just that side of
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: the infield, as far as like your first base DH option,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: so key difference. I think for me, he just chased
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: less than you can see that reflected in the O
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 4: swing percentage. I think with the White Sox last year
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: he was all the way up at thirty eight percent,
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: which is as aggressive as he's ever been. After that
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: moved to Milwaukee twenty seven point two percent. So even
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: if that's not like a new sustainable level, I think
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: that's sort of the what changed. He was not chasing,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: he was finding pitches in the zone he could do
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: damage on.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, I don't have a problem with this one,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: I do want to call you out for trying to
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: use a six year old cow results for as far
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: as your analysis, ignoring five years of major league experience.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: But I mean, more power to you for going there.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't have a problem with it. I
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: think this is one of those guys very similar to
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: what I was talking about with Henderson, like with the
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: draft price, Like you're you're at that point if you've
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: done a good job of getting some floor, h taking
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: some upside. Like there's not a problem with taking these
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: kind of guys and seeing what develops, because you're not
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: taking Vaughn to like anchor fir space, like you're taking
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: him as a corner infielder, maybe even a bench batter
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: pinion where the draft falls. So yeah, I don't have
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: a problem with it, But I do want to ostracize
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: you just a little bit for going that deep and
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: ignoring literally his entire career with White Sox.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was a very ignorable career for the
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: White Sox. I can remember when he was playing outfield.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: That was an adventure, that was a great.
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think we all forgot we tried to forget that.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah you should. Yeah, Okay, let's sell some Milwaukee Brewers DVR.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna put you to it. Who are you gonna sell?
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: You know?
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: I like that he cut the walk rate by a
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: lot last year, But abnear Rebay is being drafted as
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: though Trevor McGill is already hurt or has been traded
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: and those things haven't happened yet. So as much as
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: I like Euribay, I think he's a setup guy so
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: long as McGill is healthy and in the fold for
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: the Brewers. So unless folks out there know something I
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: don't know about their immediate plans to move him, I
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: just can't quite explain why e Rebay is being drafted
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: so early right now. There's like this false confidence that
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: he's the guy at the moment.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm right there with you that this was my sellout.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: I just sold the bullpen in general, because I think
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: the same you know logic applies here is that people
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: think McGill's going to be traded, and I mean it's
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: the Brewers. I wouldn't be shocked to see him traded
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: mid season here or even before then, just kind of
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: the way that they like to move things around, you know,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: to get the most value out of things. So I
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: just I don't think either one is the closer across
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: the entire season, and they're getting drafted like like both
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: of them are getting drafted like their full time closes
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: with the whole season. So it's just you're you're throwing
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: darts here. Unless you can literally draft both of them
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: in like a deep roster league, it's gonna be a challenge.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: And I mean, you're not gonna do that like the
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: ninth tenth round and double up on Brewers closers. So yeah,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. It's a situational issue here.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna say mine was Trevor McGill because
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: it's like it's a little bit of like what you're
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: talking about. But like the bullpen is, I think they're
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: gonna mix and match this bullpen. Honestly, Aaron Ashby might
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: end up being the closer of this bullpen at the
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: end of the day. For me, that like I just
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: plus you later on, Trevor McGill does have an injury history,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: hit the iel twice last year. That's kind of why
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: he wasn't on that in that bullpen down the stretch
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: and why your rebate was able to play, it just
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't feel I mean, both of these guys, like you said,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: they're going right in the same range, right around pick
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: one fifty. That's really rich. And obviously there's a caveat that.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: These are early drafts and people are trying to get
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: their saves, trying to get their closers. But when you're
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: looking at a team that is as analytical as the
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: Brewers and will mix and match as much as the Brewers,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: and you've got two that they're already mixing a match
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: and you're asking for pain, I think if you're taking
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: the closer in that range and doing it with these guys,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: so I'll take the Sela McGill. I'll also buy into
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: your Abner Rubey cells H. I just put Ashby down
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: as the getting the most saves in the Bruce bullpen.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: I think, DVR, who do you think it actually would
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: be if you didn't have to pick your Rebay or McGill.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: If it's not your Rebay or McGill, geez, I don't
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: even know who's gonna be in the bullpen because they
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: have so many starters, like you mentioned, is Chad Patrick
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: still gonna be a reliever. I think they're gonna use
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: him as a starter because he can give them bulk
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: zerpa as possible. Is it because of Zipa they can
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: use Ashby in that role. They have a ton of
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: lefties on the depth chart in their bullpen right now,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: that they have five different lefties they could throw out there,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: and some of.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: Them have options.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 4: So Ashby's like the broad skills play that I draft,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: not knowing if he's gonna get five saves or twenty
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 4: five saves, or if he's gonna shift into the rotation.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: It's amazing that I could watch this team as closely
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: as I do and still have so little understanding of
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: what's to happen.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's move on to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: Who I mean, I think has had one of the
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: better off seasons across MLB. That obviously, they came into
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: this offseason talking a big game, talking that they wanted
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: to sign the likes of a Kyleish Barber or something,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: And I mean, it is tough to get players to
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: sign in Pittsburgh, especially after they're coming off of another
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: last place finish in twenty twenty five. I was just
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: listening to the effectively wild preview of the Pirates this afternoon,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: and they've only had a winning season four times in
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: the last thirty three years, which is bananas, and so
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: this will be a big make or break year, I
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: think for the franchise and especially for Ben Cherrington there
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: as the head of the operations department and getting this
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: team kind of directed the right way.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: Because this in all central.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit more up for grabs
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: than maybe Pakoda thinks it is. But this has been
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: a fascinating off season for the Pirates, adding Ryan O'Hearn,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: just added Marcelo Zuna this week, and then that rotation
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: is lights out. I think in terms of Skeens, Keller, Brax,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: n Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler. You'll have Jared Jones arriving eventually.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: Currently roster resources kicking. Oh no, Mitch Keller is still there.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: My bad. I would put him at the five spot,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: but they put Jose.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: Yerikidi there and have kicked out Hunter Barco who's still
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: hanging around here. And you've also got Carbon Majenski also,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: you know, looking good in this rotation.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: So it's a deep pitching.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: Squad, great home ballpark for pitchers as well, and otherwise
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: outside of Ozuna and O'Hearn. They've also added Brandon Lao,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: so lots of intrigue. I think in Pittsburgh this year, DVR,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: who's your buye from this Pirates team?
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 4: It comes on the pitching side. I think Braxton Ashcraft
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: is still really interesting to me. I mean, I think
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: the decision to trade Mike Burrows ultimately it was really
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: good for Ashcraft because I think he's got a rotation
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: spot to call his own, especially with Jared Jones coming
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: off TJ. Like you mentioned, Ashcraft has had a lot
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: of injuries. I think you go farther back, you see
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 4: left shoulder surgery, a tornmniscus, Tommy John, some forearm tightness
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: after Tommy John, right, so it's it's like, okay, like this,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: that's why this guy is this age and hasn't had
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: a lot of experience in the big leagues yet. But
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: the stuff is really good. Average ninety seven, working mostly
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: in a multi inning relief role, So maybe that ticks
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: down slightly if he's going five innings at a time.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 4: It was one hundred and eighteen innings last year, so
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: they're probably looking for one p fifty five or one sixty,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 4: so you make it a little bit of rest around
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 4: the All Star break or a skip in the rotation
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: later in the year. But even though the Pirates aren't improved,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: I'm just not really that worried about them having to
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: rest guys because they need to save them for October.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: They need to just get into a position to play
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 4: in October, and I think Ashcraft is part of that
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: pitching depth that will actually help them get there. So
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: I'm intrigued by the arsenal. They'll actually have him in
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 4: a twenty team dynasty league and kept him last year,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: so it's maybe one year too early on Braxton Ashcraft.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: I'm hoping it starts to pay off in redraft leagues
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: this year.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: I think this is a great call, and he was
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: fantastic down the stretch from eight or the August on
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: forty and two thirds a three ten, two forty five
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: fifth with a mix of like starting and relieving.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: DVR.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: You probably picked up on this when you would do
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: like roto wire player blurbs. I did it last year,
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: and when players like have hot stretches like that and
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: you're right about them a couple of times, it really
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: perks up. And there is a couple of times when
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: I was covering Ashcraft down the stretch last season, I
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: was like, this dude is shoving, and so I love
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: this buy. I think he is a diamond in the
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: rough there.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And you could see it like they were they're
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: being really careful with the workloads. I think from the jeez,
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 4: like the August ninth through the September twenty fifth outing,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 4: it was like fifty six to seventy three pitches, like
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 4: they were really like watching him carefully. I would guess
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: it's more like eighty five to ninety pitch outings. Working
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: as a regular starter. You're not gonna see this guy
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: come out and throw a no hitter where he needs
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty pitches to get there. They're just
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: they're not.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: Gonna let that happen. Yeah, Yeah, I love this one.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: This was my buye as well as Draft was was
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: my bye. I think he's got a great arsenal. I
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: think he's actually got some room for growth from a
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: control perspective. You saw it throughout the entire miners. He
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: was a low, low walk guy, and it creeped I woulday,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 2: quote unquote creeped up a little bit at the major
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: league level and you know, he had didn't lose anything
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: other stuff, and so I think he's still learning to
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: pitch that level. And yeah, hopefully he goes deeper into
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: games and they stretch him out. But I think there's
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: a lot of lot to like with this profile. So
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna expound more because in DVR, you hit,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: you hit it all. But I think this is an easy,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: easy buy, especially the ADP. I mean we were talking
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: was like late two hundreds eightyp here, and so you're
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: you're talking in the rounds of where people are drafting
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: Garrett Cole, like a broken Garrett Cole, So like, why
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: not take the upside somewhere else?
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 3: Yes, I think that's all very fair.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: I'm going right back to the old, boring veteran outfielder profile.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: I'm buying Brian Reynolds here. He is thirty one years old,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: and it was a down season last year, But this
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: dude also had a baby in the middle of season,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: so that might have been part of it too. Otherwise,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: I think he's a pretty steady eddie two sixty hitter,
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: mid twenties homers, eighty runs, eighty RBI and when you
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: kind of put all those inputs into especially the RAS
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: ball player raider that kicks out like the one hundred
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: and fiftieth best player right now going to twenty twenty
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: six being drafted right now around pick one ninety three
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: on average. It's just it's the copy and paste that
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: Ian Half discussion we just had a little bit ago.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Put it on Brian Reynolds, and you're looking at just
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: a guy that when it comes to trying to put
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: five outfielders out there for fantasy, and you know you
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: have a three like this that can just show up.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: You don't need to fiddle with his schedule, you don't
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: need to fiddle with any platoons. It is a lifesaver.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: So I am buying Brian Reynolds at his current draft price.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they're almost the same guy. I think maybe I
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: have a slightly lower expectation in the stolen based apartment,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: but that's about it. Maybe a little less in the
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 4: counting stats because the Cubs lineup is still better than
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 4: the improved Pirates lineup. But yeah, I like that call.
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: Okay, let's get to some cells here from the Pirates DVR.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: Who you selling?
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: I don't think I like anybody's bullpen right now at
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: price in the NL Central. Dennis Santana has been in
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 4: the big leagues for parts of five season or at
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 4: parts of eight seasons, and he's never had a k
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: rate above twenty five percent. I just don't see it. They,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: aside from improving that lineup, did improve that bullpen. They
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: are paying Gregory Soto a little bit. He's got some
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: experience closing. I think he's showing slightly better control than
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 4: we've seen earlier in his career as well. I think
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: Soto has better stuff if I'm just comparing them head
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: to head. I think you could look even at someone
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: like Mason Montgomery, who we really liked this time last
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: year for draft and hold as being another really good
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: live arm in that pen that maybe Montgomery just being
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: another lefty opens up a spot for Sodo to close.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: There's just there's more options there this year, and I
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 4: think for all these teams that are trying to improve
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: and win the division or be a wild card team
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: out of the NL Central this year, I think they're
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: going to be quick to make changes in their bullpen
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 4: hierarchies if there's blow ups, and I think that's something
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: that hasn't been there pressure wise on Dennis Santana before,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: so it would not be surprised if he turns that
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 4: job over at some point in the first month or
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: two of the season.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: Yep, this was my cell as well for all those reasons.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: And yeah, when you've got those two lefties looking in
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: the pen between Soto and Montgomery, they've also got a
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: third lefty in the pen with Evan Sisk that's that
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: gives them the option to turn one of those lefties
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: into a full time closer. I think when we're looking
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: up in May, there's a good chance that Soto or
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: Montgomery is the closer on this Pirates team, and they've
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: shoveled out Dennis Santana. On top of we ran through
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: some of the loaded starting pitching they have. They might
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: move one of those guys to the pen to be
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: able to convert them into a closer as well. So
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of different ways that this can go
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: wrong for Dennis Santana.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: That's why I'm on board selling him as well. Brew
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: who you selling from the Pirates.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, some people might get mad at me for this one,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: but I think it's all situational because you know what
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: we said earlier is I think the Pirates are gonna
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 2: be a lot better this year, but I don't think
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be good enough to really go all in.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: So I'm selling Connor Griffin for redraft leagues. Let's be
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: very very clear about about the Cell for redraft leagues,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: because this is a guy with twenty one games above
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: High A. He still can use some time. Don't get
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: me wrong, he's a great talent and there's great things
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: to come. But he's the sixth guy off the board
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: for the Pirates right now, and I just don't see
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: that he gets a full run this season because he's
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: to me, he's either gonna blaze it out of spring
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: training and they think they're going all in and they're
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: gonna have him up opening Day, or I think we
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: don't see him until twenty seven, uh, because I think
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be playing the draft pick game from a CBA,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: you know, its cletch a bargaining perspective to try to
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: get him that full season finishing, you know, as the
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: rookie of the year and getting some extra draft picks
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: and things. I think that's what they're gonna try to
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: do with him. So I think, again, Nicknzalez is not
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: gonna be like the guy to hold you back. But
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: I just I think that they're gonna give more seasoning.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: And you know, this is still a guy, that's what.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: He's still nineteen years old. He'll be twenty after opening today,
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: so there's not a need to rush Connor Griffin. And
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: I think people are buying him right now, like he's
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: got the job on opening day, and I think it's
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: probably fifty to fifty whether we see him this season
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: just just my two cents. If I'm running the Pirates,
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: I'm not bringing him up this year.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: I think he is going to open him with the squad.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: This is why Nicknzalas think it's penciled in. Nick Gonzales
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: isn't a shortstop. I think he's gonna make the opening
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: day squad if the if the spring trains okay, Like.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: I said, I think he's either starting in the year,
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: he's there all year, or I don't think he's there
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: at all. And I think it's fifty to fifty. And
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: I just for the draft price right now, Like I'm
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: just not playing that gambling game. So I like I said,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: people won't agree with it because you're you're gambling if
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: he's there, I'm completely wrong.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: If you ever. What's your take on Connor Griffin.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 4: I haven't drafted any redraft leagues yet, so that's kind
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 4: of like boring in some sense. But some of that
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 4: is wanting to see what happens in the spring because
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 4: I think it actually matters in this case, and maybe
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: it's jumping on board a week or two into spring
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: training instead of waiting until the very last weekend to
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 4: get him because we've seen it. I think the one
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 4: of the more recent examples I could think of was
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: Julia has probably started with a similar ADP just forced
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: the issue and took off right. That's It's a hard
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: expectation to put on anybody. But Connor Griffin did some
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 4: ridiculous stuff in the miners last year, so I could
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 4: definitely see it being a more extreme downside. As Brew
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: highlighted though, if he has a bad spring and they
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: do send him down to Triple A even and he's
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 4: not crushing the ball at Triple A to begin the year,
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: then they're gonna have to just wait until he gives
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: them a reason to promote him.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, Well, we will see how it goes, because I
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: do think that like it will be the draft Price
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: is about to rock it when he starts playing in
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: spring training.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: It smells like it's gonna be like top one hundred
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: by the Times opening day hits if he's doing well
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: in the Grapefruit League there, so something.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: Keep an eye on.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: Okay, last team, the Saint Louis Cardinals here who last
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: year finished in fourth place, going seventy eight and eighty four,
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: and then pretty much torched it to the ground in
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: the offseason. No more Sunny Gray, no more Wilson and
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 3: trist no more Nolan Arnatto, no closer. Really, you know,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: they've got a very fluid bullpen going to the year
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: and they're turning over to the youth movement. Nobody in
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 3: the starting lineup is older than twenty eight and a half,
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 3: which is Lars Nubar, and that even goes all the
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: way to the bench, where actually johel Poso is a
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 3: little bit older than Lars Nubar. But it is going
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: to be a youth movement in Saint Louis.
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: We've got a very young infield, especially projected to kick off.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: And it's also a team five players going in the
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: top three hundred of ADP right now. So not a
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: lot of believers out there because on top of it all,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: it is a tough park. The rotation is not exactly
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: filled with stalwarts in terms of stuff or performance over.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: The past few years.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: So it's a fascinating squad because of all of the
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: youth movement and lots of different directions.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: I think that this team in this season could go.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: So with all those caveats laid out DVR, who you
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: buying from the Cardinals, I.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: Think because he's not going to take much and I
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: believe in the raw power, I'm still going to take
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: one more chance at Jordan Walker. I think the thing
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 4: that's weird is if you use the visualization of the
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: way guys set up over at Baseball Savant and you
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: do like a monthly split and you just sort of
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 4: like click from month to month to month. Jordan Walker
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: just looked like someone trying to figure out how to
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 4: get comfortable in the batter's box. He like they knew
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 4: something was wrong and he and or the coaching staff
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: could not figure out what to do to fix it.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 4: Or the better part of the last like two years,
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: I know he went to drive a line to start
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: the off season. They think they've figured out mechanically what's wrong.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 4: I think the thing that's different for me going into
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: this year is it's just a run of playing time
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 4: to decide if it's fixed, and then probably a harsher
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: stop on giving him chances if it's not. So I
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 4: think it's going to be easy to know after a
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: few weeks, Okay, this worked and he's playing enough, I
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 4: could keep my mind roster or uh oh, we're still
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 4: not seeing the things we saw from him when he debuted,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: and the swing is still a mess, and he's gonna
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: lose his job to one of the other twenty five
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 4: to twenty six year old who someone else they have
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: in the organization they want to get a look at.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: I've seen Nathan Church is a guy that every buddy
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 4: James Anderson's brought up a few times, like there are
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: enough guys they'll want to look at eventually where they
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 4: don't have to give Walker five hundred played appearances this year.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: But he hits the ball so hard and showed us
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: for a stretch that he could do that without striking
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 4: out a lot. I think the depth chart has at
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: least been whittled down enough where I can give him
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: one more chance as someone that goes outside the top
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 4: three hundred overall.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. Also only twenty three, and
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: especially when you are six six with the levers that
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: he had. I mean it took a while for Aaron
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: Judge to figure it out. I mean he's not Aaron
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: Judge to be clear, but like when you have that
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: big of just limbs and everything to put together, it
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: can take some time. And yeah, I can see it.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: He's pretty much free, so not gonna hurt you in
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: the long run. Brew, Who are you buying from the Cardinals?
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm I am buying their top drafted guy,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: which is you know, with the Cardinals. That's saying much.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 2: And I'm going to take Alec Burlison. I think Burlison
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: for all of his plotting, unsexy swings that the guy brings,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: I mean just not you know, I can't get the
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: plate necessarily for all of that, This guy can hit,
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: and I think there's a lot more to unlock here
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: if you actually start to focus on a little bit
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: of like the bat tracking and what he can do.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: He's in the top you know, fifteen guys in the
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: league from a you know, ability to square the ball, up,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: and if you start to like break down the guys
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: in that similar ability, there's only really like two guys
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: that are anywhere near from the same bat speed perspective.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 2: For the Burlison and Burlison's like is like mid tier
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: bat speed, but from a guy that can square the
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: ball up that's mostly like your speed, or like contact
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: guy that's like the Jacob Wilson's or any Clements Lewis
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: rice Is. Those are the guys with those high contract rates,
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: except for guys like Juan Soto or Ben Rice and
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: Alec Burlison, and so the guys that have really figured
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: out the ability to square the ball up and have
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: it's a reasonable bat speed, the ball will fly for
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 2: those guys. Alejrnd O Kirk is around there as well,
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: and a guy that we know and if you're actually
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: talking plotters, for sure, Kirk really fills out that that
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: ball game. So maybe that's you know, the comp somewhere
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: between Alejandro Kirk and Won Soto is like the biggest
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: range possible. But I really think there's a lot more
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: to unleash here, and like this is a guy that
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: could easily hit two eighty. He has thirty homer power,
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: and he can play first and outfield. I think that's
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: you know, the upside for Burlison is, you know, in
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: the downside of the guy hits two seventy with twenty
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: two to twenty five homers, like, you're still very very
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: happy at that draft price and the ability to have
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: some flexibility to plug him in different spots, and he
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: should be right in the middle of that lineup, which
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: I think is actually going to be a better lineup
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: than people think. It's going to be an exciting and
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: frustrating team. I will say that as a Cardinals it's
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: gonna be exciting and frustrating the whole season as they
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: try to figure things on some things out. Because when
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: Jordan Walker ends up hitting, and Alon Gorman does, and
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: Weatherhole gets up and all these things, you know, all
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: the stars aligned, this is gonna be an amazing team.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: And when those guys don't hit, it's gonna be really, really,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: really tough to watch. So I'm going to Alec Burlison.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: I'm a big fan. I think he's gonna do some
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: awesome things this year.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he was originally gonna be my buye and then
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: I switched it because the more I'm digging into this
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: profile of Kyle Lahey, the more and more I'm falling
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: in love every time it.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: Is a I can't disagree with that.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: It's pretty much free.
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: It's ADP right now, six twenty five, and you are
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: looking at a guy who, I mean, he should be anchoring.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 3: The back of that rotation.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: Was in the bullpen all year for the Cardinals last
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: year put up eighty eight innings of a three ZHO
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: seven era a three H four fit and nothing pops
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: off the page in terms of the stuff. Plus but
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: it's a solid five pitch mix that he can control
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: pretty well. And I'm not too worried about the reliever
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: to starter a conversion here for Lakey because he was
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: used in longer stints down the stretch last year. It's
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: also a guy where like it's tough to sometimes like
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: describe this when you're watching him pitch, but like people
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: look flummoxed when they're facing Kyle Lahey. I think it's
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: a combination of that five pitch mix and the other
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: component is it's not you know, top end fastball velo.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: It's only ninety five point four out of the bullpen,
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: so you're probably gonna take a tick or two off
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: of that as a starter, but the extensions in the
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: ninety six percentile, he's six foot five, and I think
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: that is really messing with batters when they're trying to
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: square it up and see what's coming out of Lay's hand.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: He is absolutely free. And I think he's a great
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: player to add to all fantasy rosters out there because
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: not only is I mean, I think he can probably
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: be a back end starter every week. But if that's
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: not it, like you can at least stream him at home.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: The Cardinals have a home park.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: You can stream him at home.
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: They're gonna have a pretty solid defense, i think because
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: of the youth movement. So I'm buying Kyle Lahy all
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: day long. I love this profile.
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, he's interesting, I think just because of how wide
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 4: open the opportunity actually is, and he's worked enough in
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: the past and he's old enough where they're just gonna
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 4: let him go. Like they're not gonna worry about his
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: workload on a start by star basis.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: No, absolutely not.
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: And yeah, if it's rolling like they'll I think they'll
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: let him pitch deep into games as well to get
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: those wins that like it's not somebody that they're gonna
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: be babying too much because he is twenty eight and
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: it's go time for Kyle Leahey, okay, let's get into
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: some cells DVR. Who you sell him from the Cardinals.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 4: I can't figure out why people like Victor Scott, Like
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: I just, uh, is it even like a sell? He
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 4: goes late enough where you're like, oh, well, loo could
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 4: go right, I get some stolen bases. I know he's
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 4: a great defender and center field. I just don't know
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 4: if he's gonna hit enough for it to matter, Like
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 4: the gap is actually that wide. So I'm actually I'm
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: genuinely curious what Bruce thinks as a Cardinals fan, if
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 4: there's like reason to be still optimistic about Victor Scott
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 4: doing enough as a hitter to give us the fantasy
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: goodness we want from him as a base dealer over
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 4: a full season.
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a stretch. I mean, if it's
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: a fair comparison to say, like diet Billy Hamilton, which
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure if that's a compliment to either of them,
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: but like it's what you wanted with Hamilton, which is
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: like I think he can hit for average, but he
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: hasn't quite shown it. And I think he should run
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: like crazy, but he hasn't quite shown that enough as well,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: And so it seems like he's does it in places,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: but I don't think he's gonna be able to sustain
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: it enough. And he's just gonna be a guy that's
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 2: gonna be poking the ball around, trying to stretch singles
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: into doubles. And you know, there's not a big incentive
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: like that of the team to be seen on a
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: ton of basis. It's it's not something they're gonna be
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: pressing at this point in time. So I like him overall.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not too worried about the draft price because three
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: you know, mid three hundreds, Yeah, call it free. So
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: it's worth a dart throw. But he's not gonna hit homers.
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: He's not gonna drive and runs, and you know that average,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: I think is gonna be a false hope and it's
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: gonna settle more in the two fifty range. And so yeah,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: you're you're now starting to look at the Uh. We
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: can't get through a podcast coolly without say the name.
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: I already said it once. This is Louisa Rise of Speedsters.
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: We've got a swetan skill that's really valuable, and people
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: hope for the others and they think that there's more there,
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 2: and I just don't know that it's going to come
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: to fruition and you're gonna be left holding the bag
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: because you're hurt you in so many other places. So
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: I like him as a real world ballplayer. I think
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: he's actually a great real world ballplayer for this type
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: of team and the defense he brings. But yeah, I'm
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: I hate selling my own guys, but it's it's it's
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: not there for me.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you're gonna enjoy this. You know who is number one?
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: Most of them are batter On Savante is Now it's
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, Noel v Marte.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: Okay, well I have a type.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: So who are you selling? Well?
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: I feel like we this this off season. We've been
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: selling like every single bullpen basically, and I'm just gonna
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 2: do it again. I'm not gonna sell the bullpen. I'm
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: gonna sell Riley O'Brien here just because I think he's
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: the third in line to close, or like I think
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: he should be, and you know, people are quasi drafting
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: him like a closer. I mean his his draft price
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: is really not that crazy. But if Jojo Romero is
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 2: not traded, Jojo should be the closure because you got
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: to build up the trade value to get him traded
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: mid season. I think Matt Sponston is actually really intriguing,
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: and he's, you know, four years younger than Riley O'Brien,
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: and so if you're going to try to see, like
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: my closure the future for the next few years, you're
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: gonna hand it over to Sponson. And I just you
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: know O'Brien, he's talented, but I just think you're behind
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 2: too many guys to assume that he's gonna get the saves,
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 2: and so this is likely the bullpen where you have
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: three guys get ten saves and then you know, Ryan
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: the Stani's gonna, you know, squeeze another five out for fun.
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: So I'm just I'm avoiding it in general. But I
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: think if I'm drafting a reliever here, it's probably Sponson
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: thinking that he's gonna get a second half from a
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: closer perspective, but that's mostly because he's freak and O'Brien's not.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: And so I've got to stay away from this bullpen
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: because it's just dangerous.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: Yep, I'm that was actually myself too that Like I
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: love the strikeout, so I love the electric stuff for
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: Ridley O'Brien, but the walks are I just it's not
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: a great pairing for a closer overall, and I just
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: don't think that he's got Also just the background terms
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: of the number of innings that he's been often injured
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: because of that electric arm, and there's kind of a
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: two factor risk there between the rest of the bullpen
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: around him and then throwing in a guy who has
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: often battled injuries. So that is why I think it's
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: a rich price for rivaly O'Brien. And maybe it is.
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 3: Like the ADP because of all the closers that nearly saves.
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there's still shots to take later, I think
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: in Draft champions right now. Okay, well, we wrapped it.
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: We did the NL Central, we got through. We didn't
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: hurt anybody's feelings about other people's favorite teams. I'm proud
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: of us, all very Midwestern and nice of us.
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 3: So good work everybody. DVR.
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: Let everybody know where they can find you. Once again,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: read your work and plug anything that you might want
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: to plug.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, anything, I right, it's going to be at
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 4: the Athletic It's just going to be some hitter rankings
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 4: coming out soon and maybe the occasional like roundtable type
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: of thing that I Chi chip in on on the
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: draft kit which is rolling out now too. Rates and
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 4: Barrels is anywhere you listen to podcasts. Also got a
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 4: YouTube channel, so if you prefer video and some of
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 4: the graphics we throw up on the screen and looking
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 4: at our faces, you can definitely scribe and watch the
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 4: show that way too awesome.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 3: Well, thanks DVR for joining us for this n our
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 3: Central preview. We really appreciated it. Brew Let everybody know
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 3: where they can read your work and reach you.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: On socials, Yep, find me Jay Brewer one seven on
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: ex Twitter, blue Sky, all the above, find me rasball
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: on the weekends, hit A Profiles Top one hundred hitter
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: rankings as well. Don't compare mine to DVRs because one
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: of us is right and I'm not going to tell
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: you who. We'll figure that out later, but yeah, come
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: out on Sundays. We were just about to start to
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 2: unveil my rankings for the preseason as well. Cool how
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 2: about you.
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can find me on Blue Sky at mcool
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: seven c o U I L L on the spelling
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: there on cool just like my last name. And then
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: check out cards and categories on Blue Sky as well
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: at Cards Categories. You can email the podcast at Cards
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: Categories at gmail dot com.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 3: Go into those show notes.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: Where you can get links to everything that we've discussed,
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: see the list of the names that we've brought up,
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: as well as get some cards and categories gear while
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: you're down there, get a new hat, get new mug,
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: get new baby onesie, whatever you want. You can get
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: a card and categories logo on it. You got another idea,
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: use that email address.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 3: I'll hook you up. I'll slap the cards and categories
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 3: logo on something for you.
• 1:45:16
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• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: out those Rasball subscriptions. We're getting right into the thick,
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: right into the prime of draft season, and you can't
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: go wrong with a Rasball subscription gets you access to
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: Rudy's Draft room and then all of the Streamingander and
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: hitter Trond tools in season. It is priceless. I think
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: if you're a fantasy baseball player and focused on trying
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: to win your leagues.
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 3: So thanks everybody for checking us out. If you've If
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 3: this is one of your first times listen to the podcast,
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 3: make sure to rate and review it wherever you're listening
• 1:45:48
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• 1:45:52
  Speaker 3: and the listenership, so appreciate you checking us out. We
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 3: will be back, same time, same place, next week. Thanks everybody,