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The Favorites - AFC East Betting Preview with Michael Lombardi · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: my capadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter ros I Man.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad. How are we doing? Brother?
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: We are living it. We are deep deep into preview season.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I'm excited for today is because it involves the most smug, arrogant,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: controversial player in the NFL. It's our fifth installment in
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: our annual NFL Division preview series. We are discussing the
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: AFC East and we are joined by a special guest
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: who has had his fair share of controversial characters that
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: he has had to work with. He is a longtime
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: NFL executive, creator of the Daily Coach newsletter, author host
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: of the GM Shuffle podcast. It is Michael Lombardi. Mister Lombardi,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the show.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Thank thank you, chat, Thank you Simon. Appreciate being here.
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: I enjoy listening to you guys talk about the game
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: and talking about the betting. It's as I told Simon
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: when we had lunch one day, for me somebody who's
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: never been in the betting world and working at Viison,
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: I never really understood betting and listening to how it
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: applies to handicapping teams. I've learned a great deal from
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: listening to you too, so it's helped me out a lot.
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: I appreciate you having me.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I love that we've got an old school South Jersey
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Jersey shore Barnburner on this show. And also look for
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: those listening who don't know, Lombardi worked for Al Davis
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and I sat with Mike and he has told me
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: stories about working for Al Davis that would burn your
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: eyeballs how insane it was to work with Al Davis.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: So you are no stranger to working with controversial characters,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: to working with people who have big egos. Aaron Rodgers
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: obviously in the AFC East, we're going to get into that.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 2:29
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• 3:00
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  Speaker 1: Quick Heads Up Action Network's popular college football podcast, BBOC
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• 3:27
  Speaker 1: this episode description. Before we get into it, Mike truly,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: did you have a secret? And now you've been in media,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: so you've continued to deal with arrogant, controversial, crazy personalities,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: which we working for the Raiders, working for the Patriots.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: What was your secret to dealing with unbelievably sort of
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: high touch, precious personalities.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: You know, when I watched Hard Knocks, I thought Joe
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: Shane's the luckiest son of a bitch in the world
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: because John marras such a nice man that if Al
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: Davis would have been his president and general manager, I
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: don't think Joe Shane would have been alive today. He
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: would have been like Mussolini, hung out in some square
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: because some of the answers that he was giving weren't
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: go to got to fly with Al. I think it
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: the other way. I've learned a lot from him.
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: If there's anything we've ever done, then I'm particularly proud of.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: I would have to say perpetuation of the greatness of
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: the Raid is to take a professional football team and
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: give it a distinct characteristic that's different from all of us.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: You know, I learned a lot of football from Al.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: Was a young kid driving Bill Walsh around in a
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: car and Coach Wall said to me, he said, you know,
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: the most football ever learned in my life was working
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: for Al Davis. And I thought to myself, well, I
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: got to go work for Al Davis, and I did,
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: and I learned a lot of football. I learned about
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: game management. I learned about players, like for example, if
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: I would have gone to Allen said we're going to
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: spend twenty eight million in trade for Brian Burns and
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: he's got eight and a half sacks year, and we're
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: going to cost us a two and a five. He
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: would have said, well, how many secks did he get
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: against Tyron Smith? How many sacks did he get against
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: Charles Leno? How many sex did he get against Malatta
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: from the Eagles? And if I didn't have that answer
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: off the top of my head, he would have cursed
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: me out and I would have been shot at sunrise. So,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: you know, it's a blessing to work for some of
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: these people. Egos just part of it, you know, it
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: just goes with the territory. And as long as your
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: ego doesn't get in the way of you learning, it's
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: really beneficial.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: I had a dream that someday I would build the
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: finest organization in professional sports.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I think I might have told you this story. I
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: don't know, Simon, I have ever told you this story. But
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Al Davis so he used to be a coach at
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: the Citadel, you know, going back to the fifties and sixties,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: and before he was, you know, in the NFL, and
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: one of my closest friends. His dad grew up dirt
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: poor in Brooklyn, had never been to a restaurant, but
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: he was an All city football player in Brooklyn. Davis
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: was recruiting him to go to the Citadel, and Al
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Davis took him to a really nice restaurant in New York.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: The only restaurant he'd ever been to that had had
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: tablecloths on it, right on the table. So he's sitting
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: with Al Davis and in the middle of dinner, Al
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Davis takes out a pen on the tablecloth, the white tablecloth,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: starts drawing up plays for this guy to diagram, break down,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: talk about and then again nice restaurant, you know, coat
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: and tie kind of plays white tablecloths. Al Davis gets
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: up out of his seat and gets into a stance
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: and tells my buddy's father to get into a stance
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: so they can start wrestling, like blocking with each other
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: and practicing so he can see his technique. In the
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: middle of the restaurant. My buddy's father thought, this is
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: just what you did in a restaurant. That to me
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: is when I think about Al Davis, Mike, that is
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: what I think about.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there's so many of them. I mean,
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: I met with a published in New York City. Michael Lewis,
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: the writer lived in my name, would live behind me
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: in Berkeley when I worked for the Raiders, and when
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: I got down working for the Raiders, when as Al
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: Davis would often say, I'm going to send you to Elba, kid,
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: I'm going to put you at Elba. Eventually I went
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: to Elba to meet Michael Lewis and he says, you
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: got to meet my publisher, Star Lawrence. He's in New York.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: You should write a book about Al and all that stuff.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: And I did. So I'm sitting with Starr and I'm
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: telling Star Lawrence all these stories and he looks at
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: me and he says, no one's going to believe this, Like,
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: no one could possibly believe these stories, Like I get
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: your ideas, but there's not a book here because it's
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: going to be a novel. And he was probably right.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, that.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Story doesn't surprise me at all. I mean, there's so
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: many of them. But again, that side of Al was
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: what people know. But the brilliance of him as an executive,
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: as a drafter, you know, I mean, he signed lance
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: for Renssel on the field at the University of Arkansas,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: made him sign the contract at the fifty yard line.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, this guy was the whole history of the
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: AFL and one of the reasons why the Chiefs and
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: the Raiders have such hostility towards one another. I don't
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: think people realize this. I wrote about it in Football
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: Done Right. Al was the commissioner of the AFL and meanwhile, Lamar,
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: Hunt and tech Shram were negotiating the settlement between the
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: AFL and the NFL and they didn't tell Al, and
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: Lamar signed the contract without telling them, and that burned
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: his ass forever.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Mike. Here at the Favorites, we also pride ourselves on
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: our commitment to excellence. So let's get intore. Let's get
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: into the AFC East. Reminder for everybody who's been listening,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: in all of our previous installments, nineteen of the past
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone from worst
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: to first in its division. Last year's AFC champ was
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills, last place New England Patriots. Could the
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Patriots be that team? Could the Patriots be that team
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: that goes from worse to first? All right, Buffalo, Good.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Afternoon, everyone.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: This is Van Miller and the Road to the Super Bowl,
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: goes through Orchard Park, New York.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Fifteen to one to win the Super Bowl, a little
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: bit lower than it's been in the pat a little
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: bit longer than it's been in the past couple of years,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: plus one seventy to win the Division. Ten and a
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: half is the win total. As everybody knows, our strength
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: of schedule ranking goes by the aggregate wins in twenty
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: twenty four from the projections of bookmakers. That's how we
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: are ranking a schedule. Buffalo has the tenth artist. Also,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: as everybody knows, we focus a lot on O line
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: and D line because that's where we think differences are
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: made far beyond anybody gives credit when we're talking about
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: power rankings. O line ranking for the Bills eighth, A
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: lot of questions, though their best player is Spencer Brown,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: who was a tackle was the thirty second ranked tackle
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus. They are replacing their center,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: filling a lot of other holes. D line ranking very quiet, sixteenth.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Traded for von Miller. He has not been right ever
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: since they traded for him. He's faded. Ed Oliver is
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: mid at best. Mike, I'm going to start with you,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: do you feel like the Bills have just completely missed
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: their window.
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: Well, you know, that window thing is always fascinating to
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: me because when you have Josh Allen, you always have
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: a big window. But I think this is a team
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: that has to be If you were to bring in
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: Brandon Bean or Sean McDermott into this conversation today, they
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: would tell you they're worried about their defensive front. They're
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: worried that they paid all this money to Von Miller.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: He didn't have a sack or an assist last year.
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: I no, he's coming off the injury. But you know
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: they're worried about the size of their team. See, Buffalo
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: is an interesting team, guys, because Buffalo believes in the
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: concept of we're going to get the lead. In football,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: everybody thinks the West Coast off is about smash seven
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: curl twenty bingo cross. Walsh invented an offense that could
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: score early in the game and then have a defense
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: could rush the passer. And that's what Buffalo is. Buffalo
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: is a nickel defense. When you have Matt Milano and
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: you have Binar, two guys at barely weigh two hundred
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: and twenty five pounds playing linebacker. For you, you're going
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: to have a hard time holding up against a run
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: in a tight game. But when you play from in front,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: they can rush the passer. And that's the issue I
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: think for Buffalo is their defensive front. Can they rush?
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: Are they going to be good enough up front? Daikwon
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: Jones was their best defensive lineman last year the way
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: I see it, and he got hurt and they missed
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: some games. There's no real depth here. You know, Miller
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: doesn't look anywhere near the same players. So when they
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: have that lead, who's going to really be the guy
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: to rush? Who's going to be their defensive player? I
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: worry about that. Allan will keep them in games. They what,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: They didn't lose a game by more than six points
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: all last year, But to me, that's my biggest concern.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: No value on this team.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Actually, you're gonna be shocked. I'm finding to be positive
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: about a division. I love this division and I like
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: three teams of this division. So Buffalo is one of
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: the teams I like. If you're telling me that, you know,
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: this is the year people started doubting him because they
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: got rid of his two receivers. That's the year I
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: buy It was the same thing with the Chiefs. The
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Chiefs got rid of Tyre Kilchad. I was buying heavy
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: on that team because I told I just kept saying
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: he's important. But they have some of their best minds
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: in football. They'll be able to adjust. Is Joe Brady
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: sold the offensive coordinator, I'm in then. I love him.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I love their style. And this is the team that
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: I just bought into last year, and me and you
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: rode them. I think we got them at plus four
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: hundred to win the division. And we just saw the path.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: We saw how it could break for them last year
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: because the offense started clicking right once they made a
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: change a coordinator, it really started clicking. I just believe
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: having an offseason now, you know, Kinkaid, it might be
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: one of the best tight ends. We're not talking about
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: football like this. This kid's ceiling might be really high.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: He might be the next type Kittle type. Right. It
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: might be a great blocking tight end who's also a
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: dominant receiver. So there's a lot of things I'm excited about.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Stuff you had a camp sounds great, right. Coleman kid
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: they drafted this year out of Florida State. He's funny
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: as hell. But when he gets on the field, he
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: seems like he's a dog like he's really serious, and
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: he works really hard apparently, and he's been working putting
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: extra time on Josh Allen. So to me, Josh, he's
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: the difference maker, Chat, I mean me, and you keep
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: talking about we have him a second ranked quarterback. I
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: can't bet an under on a guy like that at
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: die respect. So ten and a half is plus one thirty.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: The professional is clearly like this team's under because they
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: believe this division is better. Right with Aaron Rodgers stepping
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: up and Miami is sending it from last year, I
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: could see what they've taken that position again. They play
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: a first place schedule. It's it's tough to get those
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: wins when you have a first play schedule. I got
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: him right at eleven wins, Chat, so it's not that
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: big of an advantage. I got it by half a game.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: But at a plus number, I'll take that bet, but
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: I don't. I haven't bet anything on the division wise yet, Chat,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: I have not touched their division olog yet. A plus
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: one seventy, I think it should be plus closer to plus.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: You on, you're just like the Jets, right, I kind
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: of have these teams right there by each other. So
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: to me, I have not taken a position on the
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Bills division ob ject, but I have had bet the
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: over ten and a half.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. You just mentioned their schedule on the road
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: at Baltimore, at Houston, at the Jets at the Rams
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: at Detroit, plus Kansas City and the Niners at home.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: This is not a schedule that is for I feel
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell is listening to this as a resident
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills maniac. He knows that this is going to
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: be a miserable year.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: This sucks and it's horseshit. But I'm too polite to
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: say anything because I'm a class act.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I was making notes on this, and I was trying
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: to think, like Josh Allen, transcendent talent happens to have
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the bad luck of being a transcendent talent at the
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: same time as Patrick Mahon. Homes is not only in
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: the same league, but in the same conference. So I
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: was trying to think of comps for the Bills, and
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: in my notes, I was like, is he Dan Fouts
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: of the Chargers or in the eighties when they couldn't
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: get over the hump, right, Or is it the is.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: It Philip Rivers of the Chargers, Philip Rivers, Philip River
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: to Brady Simon.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: We'll get to this in a second because you'll you'll
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: like this too. Or is it the Houston Oilers of
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the seventies and like they couldn't they got to those
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: championship games and they couldn't quite get past the Steelers.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: And so Mike knows this because like we are of
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the same generation of football fandom where those teams like
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: are It feels like yesterday. So I'm sending to the
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: dinner table with my kid and I say to him,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: give me a comp for Josh Allen today. My kid
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: is seventeen, Mike, give me a comp for Josh Allen
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: any sport. We're like, he's the best, but might not
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: get there. And he goes, well, James Pardon of the Rockets,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, huh, that could be better than Dan
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Fouts of the nineteen eighties. For our audience, you're with me, Mike.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: You're with Mike. Well, I think to me, you know
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: all those teams you cited that, like, I think the
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: Houston Oilers were the most talented team to never win
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: a Super Bowl. I think Mike Holliback, the former general manager,
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: belongs to the Hall of Fame for the assemblance of
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: that team. I wrote about that, But this isn't that
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: talented of a team that way. I think they've changed
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: their style offensively. Look, you know, they gave the Chiefs
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: the hardest time of any team in the playoff run,
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: even worse than forty nine. They ran for one hundred
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: and seventy three. They threw the football effectively on them.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: You know, Bass missed the field goal. That Bass is
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: an issue that you have to be concerned about with
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: this team. You know, he's missed two kicks in the
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: forty he missed two outside of fifty. They kick in
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: Buffalo not easy to kick. You have to be worried
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: about that. But they changed who they are, guys. I
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: think they used to be an eleven team all the time,
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: one tight end, one back, and now they're a twelve team.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: But how you define twelve as different? See Kaid can
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: win against slot corners, kN k can win against other safeties.
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: So they're really they can be. They're a little bit
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: like the Niner. They'll excuse me, the Patriots when the
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: Patriots had Hernandez. They were a twelve team, but they
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: could be an eleven team. They could be a ten
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: team without having a substitute. And this is a little
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: bit where Buffalo is in that vein. They can be
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: an eleven team or a twelve team without a substitution,
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: which makes it harder for the defensive coordinator game plan
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: against it. Also, because of the value of Cook, we
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: can't underestimate Cook's talent as a runner. Now, he fumbled
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: four times last year, but Cook's really good and so
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: he makes the spread. And what Simon's saying about Brady
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: is they can be in that and I think their
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: leading receiver will be Kincay. I don't think the digs
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: In trade is going to affect them as much because
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: of this is how they've actually changed the offense, and
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: they changed it last year right before our eyes.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm glad you guys are saying this because the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: other notes I had is I don't know that I
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: get the identity for this team right now. Are they
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: going to be the team that was trying to run, run, run,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Are they going to be the team that is spreading
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: it out? Are they going to be the team whose
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: best weapon is going to be whatever Josh Allen decides
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: he wants to be that day, without any rhyme or reason. Either.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: He's the best rusher on the field, the best passer
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: on the field. We're going to bet his over rushing
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: props in every game. So this is interesting to me,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: and Simon, I agree with you. Like when you were
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: saying ten and a half, I was thinking to myself,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: if I'm betting the Bills ten and a half, why
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: wouldn't I just bet the plus one seventy at a
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: better number because they'll need to get over ten and
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: a half to win that division. But you kind of
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: framed it that you don't think the value is there.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just wish it was a better number. Again,
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: they deserve to have a lower number. They should have
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: the most respect in this division. It's their division. I
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: mean they've wonted how many times now with Josh Allen
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: four or five times? Shit, I mean it's his division,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: so they should be the favorite. I just thought it'd
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: be closer to plus two hundred than is that plus
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: one seventy?
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: All right, New York Jets.
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: Still it's real good.
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: Be the best is yet to come.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I'm fairly certain that the Atlantic wins have floated a
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: rumor to me that you guys might have different opinions.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Here New York Jets twenty to one to win the
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl plus one eighty to win the division. Season
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: win total of nine and a half fourth easiest schedule,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: And I will not lie to you guys. I don't
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers at all as a personality. I don't
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: know him. I think he's a brilliant quarterback. I just
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: don't like the way he presents himself as a personality.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: I think he's just way too smug, tries to use
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: word to play to get himself to thread the needle
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: so he can be right no matter what he says.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I just think it's obnoxious. But they're offensive and defensive line.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: How they can control the line of scrimmage their foundation,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: that's just it might be too good to bet against
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the gents. O line ranks according to Pro Football Focus
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: is fifth. They signed to Ron Smith. They signed Morgan Moses.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Both finished among the tenth highest graded offensive tackles in
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, could be one of the best dudes
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. They also get Elijah Vera Tucker
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: who missed most of twenty tony three. He's going to
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: be back. And then their defensive line, like even with
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: a couple of departures of John Franklin Myers and Bryce
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: hoff they were hopefully offset Bias Son Reddick depending on
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: what happens with his contract situation. Jermaine Johnson showed improvement.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Then there's Quinton Williams, who was obviously other than Chris
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: Jones and Dexter Lawrence, the most dominant interior defender in
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: the league, behind both of them only for total pressures
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: amongst interior alignment for the past two seasons. Simon, I
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: want to bet against the Jets. I don't want to
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: root for Aaron Rodgers, but I look at the overall
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: of this team, I look at their foundation and I
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: can't do it.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I like him, and I'm not here to convince people.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: I like Aaron Rodgers. But you have to see this kid.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Where he's come from is he went to Juco and
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: when he was in college apparently he said people basically
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: told him he was gonna be dumb in a failure
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: in life, and he is what we talked about. He
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: just likes revenge, like this guy likes to prove people
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: wrong and he's very vindictive, and you know, him dropping
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: in the draft, he talked about like that changed his
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: trajectory in life, Like he worked so hard because he
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: was just like, once again people didn't believe in me
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: and all these other people's I get where you're coming from.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: That's what made him in that personality though, where he's
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: just he's totally gone the other way because it has
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: worked out for him. Chad, right, So it's like he
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: does think his shit don't stink when it does stink.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: It's like he ain't the smartest man in the room
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: just because he's incredible gifted at football. But for this season,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: it's all there, Like it's just it's perfectly set up
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: where they have the schedule and I do think you know,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: even if you know things don't work out, Reddick, I
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: still chug that defense. I just think overall they had
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: the talent there and then offensively, it's just I mean,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: fantasy people know this right now. Rees All and you
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: know Wilson are both first round picks and fantasy football,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: it's these guys ceilings are you know, Hall could be
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: the number one running back in football at the end
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: of the season. And we've seen Roger's career. He likes
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: a lock on the number one targets. It's just his
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: playing style. He always finds a guy he likes and trust.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: He doesn't care if that guy's doubled. He's gonna try
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: to fit in there. Trust and put that on the
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: guy we just saw get Wilson have an incredible season
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: with Zach Wilson. I mean, it's just I just can't
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: get over how much potential is there. And then we
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: mix in the schedule, Chat, what are you talking about?
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: You know, if they lose their first game this year,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: we could easily see them ritt all of five wins
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: afterwards and be five to one heading into mid mid October.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: So this is the team that it's all set for them.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: And even if Rogers does go down with an injury.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: I told you, I like the fact they picked up
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor. It's like they picked up just the robot,
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: like the guy that they know can run a very
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: boring and emic goffense. Because I won't lie to you, Chat,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: I do not trust to do the other these other
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: teams in this division. That's my biggest pause with them
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: right now is the coaching. I just don't know if
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: offensively don't trust it and defensively I don't know. I'm
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: a trade I have right now. So this is a
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: team where I get your hesitation, but a nine and
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: a half I'll take it. And you can actually take
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: this because it's minus one fifty nine and a half
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: if you want a plus number. I have no issue
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: taking a ten and a half bet with this team either,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: because it's just another team. I really like their win totals.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: So if you just want you know you're gonna tie
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: money for six months here you want to make, I'm
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: sure it's plus money through the ten and a half.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: I've done it, plus one thirty five plus one forty.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: So this is a team that you know, I hate
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: being I hate like we talk of all the time chat.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: This is a media darling, right, This is a team
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: that will be all hype just because the Jets have
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: had nothing hold on to since Mark Sanchez and like
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: you'll never hear the louder market that's done nothing in
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: twelve years. It's crazy that Jets the Jets fan base,
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: So I get that it's chalky people, but I do
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: think it's all lined up perfectly for this team, like
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: last place schedule in a division that you know those
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: those games matter. You just talk with The Bills have
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: a brutal schedule. The Jets will benefit playing from a
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: much easier schedule.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Mike, you spent years in this division. Bring some Jersey
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Shore reality to Simon Well.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: I call him on my on my show and on
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: my podcast. I call them the offfers because everything that
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: Simon said, if if they're healthy, it's true, they're the effers.
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, what Aaron Rodgers are we getting? Are we
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: getting the Aaron Rodgers from the last year in Green Bay?
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: Are we getting the Aaron Rodgers from the MVP seasons?
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know that. You know, I've never seen a
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: guy come off the Achilles and play to the same level. Now,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: the procedure he had on the achilles. If you talk
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: to medical people about that procedure, they say it allows
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: you to come back quickly. However, the propensity for reinjury
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: is there, right, so you can rehab quicker.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: But there is a.
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: Propensity for that, all right, So you worry about that.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Tyron Taylor is always injured. I mean he's going to
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: play a couple of games, He's going to get hurt.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: They do have a backup. You know, I don't agree
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: with them being the fifth best offensive line in football.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: I haven't seen it yet. I mean, Tyron Smith is
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: always hurt, Morgan Moses is always on the ground, Tucker's
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: coming off in ACL Tipman and Simpson are just average
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: players so far. So maybe when we get if they
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: get going, they're the bout fifth best line. I can't
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: say that. I think Bryce Brice Hall is remarkable for
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: gaining eight hundred yards behind that really really bad offensive
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: line that they had last year with all those backups
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: in it. So and Mike Williams is another effort. The
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: guy's been trending on the downward slide and saying in
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: Los Angeles, even though he's got great big playability, can
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: he stay healthy. So if you're betting against him saying not,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: all these things are going to come to fruition, and
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: you're also saying what Simon said. Robert Salah is leading
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: this team, and you know, I don't know who sends
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: him out to a press conference, but obviously he doesn't
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: have anybody talking to him before he talks about the team.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: You know, everything's always in disarray. The strength of the
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: team is their defense. But I think Bryce Hall was
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: really good for him last year. I think John Franklin
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: Myers was really good for him last year. And I think,
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: to me, they haven't really replaced those two players. I
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: think they were the two of the two best defensive players.
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: But I agree with that there logic to bet over
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: because if all this comes in, you got it, but
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: there's a propensity for it might not happen.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: When does it happen? When in the NFL does everything
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: work out exactly as you need it to, especially when
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the quarterback is forty years old coming off a full
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: miss season with an achilles injury. And to your point, Mike,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: people will remember a couple of great years with Lafloor,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: but they will forget that for three of those I
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: think five years he played with Lafloor, he was on
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: the downward tread. So it is like now, all of
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: a sudden, I don't really like Simon's take. I think
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: I like your to take better, because.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: Well, it's something about your strength to schedule, your strength
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: of schedules. Like for me being in the league, I
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: never really gave much thought to the scheduling because I
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: wanted it was about what quarterback are replaying and if
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: the team's not healthy at quarterback, that's a that's an
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: easier game. So but one thing about the Jets and
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: the strength of schedule, because of the media reaction because
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: of Aaron Rodgers, they'll be everybody super Bowl. No one's
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: going to take them lightly. Like no one's saying, hey
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: we got the Jets this week, no big game. But
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: the bad teams are saying, hey we got the Jets
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: this week. We got we got If we show up
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: to the Jets, we're good. See, that's a whole different
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: You go from being the hunter to the hunted. It's
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: a different game. And you know, that's why the NFL
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: is so hard to handicap all the time because you
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: can't always understand the emotions that go on in locker rooms.
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: The Jets, like the first game, they're what I think
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: it's five and a half, it's gone down to four
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: and a half. It's jockeyed around based on the forty
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: nine Ers in the Ayuk situation. But to me, that's
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: a good matchup for the Jets because their front will
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: get the forty nine ers offensive line without Trent Williams.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: They play from in front. All that, but after that game,
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: they're always going to be somebody's target.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I think this is the most fascinating team to think
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: about betting in the NFL. It's lined just a little
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: bit high to make you nervous about betting the over
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: nine and a half because it's all on the if.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: It's all on if Aaron Rodgers is good. It's all
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: on if toront Smith can be healthy for a full
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: season and be as dominant as he was in his
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: prime with the Cowboys. It's all can Breis Hall make
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: that leap in the second year after an ACL injury.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: It's It's a fascinating team. And to your point about coaches,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: nobody's got confidence in these coaches. Let me give you
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a stat about Nathaniel Packett. He's in his second year
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: as offensive coordinator with the Jets. Eleventh as a coach
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: or offensive coordinator. In those previous ten seasons, his teams
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: were ninety three seventy eight to the under, going five
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: hundred or better to the under for all five with
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: all five teams he's been a part of. I don't
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: think we can expect this to be an explosive Annon
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Rodgers offense. Which means their defense is going to have
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: to win because these games are going to be low scoring,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: which speaks even more to the power of what we're
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: saying about their defense. Simon, are you still on the Jets?
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I liked about the upside of it, where it's
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: all there. Yeah, we're talking, you know, week the week.
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: This is the team that we might not be on
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: just because they're overvalued. But I think long term, yeah,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: it's just you know, this bet could be dead by
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: you know, early November, which is no worries. It's like,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: all right, well swinging a miss, it's the damn Jets.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: But if it's not this year, Chad, I feel bad
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: for these fans because it's going to be a dark
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: four or five years out of them. I mean, they've
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: really gone boom or bust with this team.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: The schedule is what the schedule is. Mike makes a
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: good point about how you look at it in season,
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: and we're both all aligned that it plays to the
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: benefit of the Jets. But for the record, they will
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: play six night games. Again to Mike's point that everyone
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: is aware that Aaron Rodgers is playing for the Jets,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and the NFL wants to put them in prime time,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: six night games, and a game in London without a bye.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: No other team plays more than four night games in
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: the first eleven weeks in the last twenty years. The
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Jets six night games within the first eleven weeks, the
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: most by any team in the NFL. So even if
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: it's an easier schedule, the actual scheduling doesn't do them
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: any favors. But Jets, however, at the Niners, as Mike said,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: they will be one of the teams that we play
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: in Week one. There's no doubt about it. Miami Dolphins
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl plus
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: two hundred to win the Division. Nine and a half
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: is the total strength to schedule eighth easiest O line
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: rank midling eighteenth according to PFF. You could argue that
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: this O line it's a perfect reflection of this team,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: better than it looks because of the system. They don't
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: have to hold their blocks because two, it gets the
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: ball out so quickly thanks to Mike McDaniel's scheme, which
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: by the way, makes two will look better as well.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: D line rank twenty fifth. This is a problem, and
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: not in a good Miles Garrett problem kind of way.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: This is just a problem. Christian Wilkins best player left
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: in free agency. Andrew van Ginkel had a career year
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: he left. Bradley Chubb was supposed to be an edge rusher,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: game changer. Still recovering from the week seventeen ACL. We
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: don't know when he'll play Mike two. It just got
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: a bag. I feel like this team is in a
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: position where it's not going to be it's never going
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: to be a contender. It's a middle of the road team.
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: Well, I think there's a couple of factors going on here.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: He's the only quarterback really in the league when you
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: study that's still effective in the RPO game. The RPO
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: game is dying. I mean, you look at Jalen Hurt's
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: numbers in the RPO game from two years ago to
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: last year. It's gone significantly down, almost by five hundred yards.
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: This kid's his that's his strength the RPO game, and
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: he's you've eloquently said it perfectly. He is enhanced by
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: the system, by the skill around them. But the second
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: half of the season, with the skill and the system
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: around them, have been a failure for the Miami Dophins.
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: They're four and ten. The second half of the season
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: with Mike McDaniel over the last fourteen games okay two
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: of last year throws fourth eleven touchdowns, seven interceptions the
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: second half of the season, same system, same players, all
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: those things. And now you add in the flavor that
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: he's got the contract. At thirteen fumbles last year in
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: the quarterback pocket, he's much skinnier than he was the
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: year before. The concussion protocol is still in play for him.
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: One of the reasons why he wanted a new contract
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: because he wanted to make sure that he got that done.
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: And we've yet to see them beat a good football
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: team ever under Tua's leadership. I mean the Eagles, and Simon,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: you're an Eagle fan, you know this as well as anybody.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: They were not good on defense, and they shut down
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: Miami's offense because why because good defensive coaches understand how
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: to play Miami. You play the rpo game. The balls
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: are going to certain spots. Now, it's easier said than done,
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: because Hill's an incredibly gifted player, unlike any we've ever
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: seen before. He's got Barry Sanders quickness with Brandy Moss speed.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: Those are hard things to put together. But I'm not
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: a fan because I think at some point there has
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: to be a level of toughness. I think at some
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: point there has to be a defense that can take
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: and win the game. And when I read all the
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: comments that they said about Vic Fangio when he left,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: it tells me this is more of a softer team,
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: and the evidence supports it. So I'm not buying it.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: You know, wins on Pup Brewer got hurt yesterday, their
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: offensive lineman. I think this is a team that everybody
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: got paid, but nobody's going to be happy.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: That's a great NFL line right there.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this was a team I wanted to like, Chad like,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: they're really funny, exciting, like we said, an offense and
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: they kept all the guys together. But when you really
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: do go into what they let go on defense last
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: year again arguably the best detackle on football. How do
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: you not pay that man, that's a position you just pay.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: You just you suck up and you pay that positions
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: because it's such a key anchor to that defense. So
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's gone, you know, Fangs is now
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: up in Philly coaching like that's that's a big loss
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: for them on defense. He eyeled a lot together on
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: that defense last year. And you know, to me, it's
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: a team that it's it's easy to bet their aggression. Right.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: It felt like a lot of things broke their way
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: last year. They had a lot of really crazy close wins.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: I mean even Week one, that Chargers game was just
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: a back and forth shootout. They kept winning those kind
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: of games, right, and that's why we kind of, you know,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: grew to respect this offense. It's like, to a I agree,
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: he's probably slightly overpaid. He's right for this offense. Like
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: what he does though, those one two reads, that's that's
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: what he is. He's a first or second red quarterback
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: that gets a ball out of his hands whether it's
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: there or not. He's gonna let his receivers do their
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: jobs just because he has two top twenty five receivers.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: So it's like, all right, if Tyreek kills covered double
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: cover here or bracketed, I'll just go to wide on
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: the single coverage. It's it's not that complicated an offense,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: especially when we're talking about the RPOs, which is always
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: gonna have the all the offense open the middle up
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: just because the linebackers are always stepping up just you
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: know they give it. They do hand the ball off,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: which I know it sounds crazy there. Their best offense
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: is when they do run the ball like that's if
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: you go back and look through their history of the games,
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: that's when they're so dominant. That's why I issue with
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: this team this year. They're not gonna have the defense
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: to have games where they can just run the ball.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: It feels like they're always going to be chasing points
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: just because they're always going to be kind of behind
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: because of this defense. So nine and a half is rich,
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Like I got them right in nine wins. So I
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: don't really have a bet either side. I probably lean
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: towards the under here Division odds are terrible plus two
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: hundred and what world would you bet this? It's just
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: to me, it's either the Bills or the Jets. I'm
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: shocked when Chad said the Jets were down a plus
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: one eighty. They were plus two thirty a month ago,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: so that they've been they've been hit pretty hard now
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: these last couple of weeks. This Miami team, I don't
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: know who's betting them. I just don't know who would
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: believe in this team to win this division, let alone
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: put any type of money on Super Bowl futures, Like
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: when you know, no matter what, they're having to go
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: to somewhere cold to win a playoff game. Doesn't matter.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: If it's Baltimore, it doesn't matter, if it's Cincy, doesn't matter.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: I like, you know, the Chiefs. It's all bad right there.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: So to me, that's that's a bad bed if you're
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: typing type in any type of future on a team.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: This is one I've not even thought about it at all.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: It just does not line upright for them. But like
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: I said, if for the owner of the team, you
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: just want to have nine to ten wins every year,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: congrats you built that team. Like that's what this team
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: feels like they're going to be for the next four
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: to five years. They're always going to be in it,
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: but no one is gonna have faith in them actually
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: going doing anything with this team. So yeah, it's it's tough.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: If you're a fan of the team, you have high hopes,
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: but as it better here to be really honest, yet,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: I just there's nothing here I really want to invest
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: in on this team.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: You guys both pointed out two was kind of a
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: beat up on bad teams win at home, flashy, mile wide,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: inch deep as a quarterback. Two and ten straight up, three,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: eight and one against the spread are way from home
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: versus winning teams in his career. His last straight up
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: win came in September of twenty twenty two against the Ravens.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: So that's seven consecutive losses. And I think we all
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: remember that game crazy hot. It's one of those early
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: season games that like, it's really challenging for the opposing team.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Looking at the Dolphins schedule, Miami is projected to play
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: away from home versus a winning team, potentially in Week
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: three against the Seahawks, Week nine versus the Bills, Week
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: ten versus the Rams, Week thirteen, versus the Packers, Week fifteen,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: versus the Texans, Week seventeen versus the Browns, Week eighteen
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: against the Jets. That's one, two, three, four, five, six,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: seven potential games against winning teams over the course of
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: the season. And that does not build well for this
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: team at all.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: No, No, it's and again that's Bill for cole Weather.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: They're not. Now that's not like that's I picked up
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: when you said a bunch of those are cold weather games.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, he struggles go back to Tennessee.
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: Played Tennessee three years ago, and the first quarter it
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: looked really good. It started to rain in Tennessee forty
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: five degrees in rain. His hands are small, he can't
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: control the ball in bad weather. I mean it's perfect conditions.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: He's good. Look they got Tyreek Hill. Could he stay
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: healthy for all seventeen I don't know. Armstead the left
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: tackle can't stay healthy for a game, let alone all
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: seventeen games. So you know, Isaiah wins on pup And
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: of course you haven't mentioned ched. They have the great
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: O'Dell Beckham, which is guaranteed you to get bet by everybody.
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Odell's the greatest receiver that ever played.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: I mean people are going to put him in the
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: Hall of Fame. But at some point, at some point,
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: all that all what we've learned is you could talk
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: all the offense you want. Kansas City one last year
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: with their defense, Let's make no bones about it. They
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: have the greatest quarterback. Don't get me wrong. They won
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: with defense. They were able to stay in games with
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: their defense, and I don't see it. You know, they
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: signed Jordan Poyer, who's going to StEB a hard time
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: staying healthy. Ramsey's a good corner, but everybody's going to
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: throw on Kendall Fuller. You know, where's the rush. Kalais
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: Campbell actually was Atlanta's best defense of lineman. He had
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: nineteen quarterback pressures last year. So he comes in, But
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: can you expect him to fill in for Wilkins? Who's
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: a Really they made no attempt to sign Wilkins at all,
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: which I thought was ridiculous.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: You know a Kalays Campbell, Mike, I think he played
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: for that nineteen seventies Boilers team. That's how long he's
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: been around b Ramsey. He's on the pup list too,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Like we don't know when he's going to be coming
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: back from his injury last year, so that defense is
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: in shambles. You're the GM of this team. We as
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Simon and I as generally layman me. More than Simon
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: could see from a mile away, this team was building
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: self towards mediocrity. What do you do with tua if
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: you're the GAM of that team, do you feel like
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: they have handicapped themselves?
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: How are you building a team to escape the inertia
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: of eight to ten wins?
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: I'm waiting for a team to have enough balls when
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: they know who their quarterback is to draft a quarterback
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: and have the balls to replace them. See. I think
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: the biggest mistake we made, I made it in the league,
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: we all make it is when we overpay replaceable players.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: Look, I'm not saying too is not a good player,
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: but he's certainly if they went to Mike White or
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: Skyler Thompson, they would be a lesser player. But maybe
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: if they drafted one. I think to me, when you
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: go down that road of overpaying good players, you end
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: up with a bad cap and not a good team.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Daniel Jones the perfect example. I mean, this is a
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: team the Giants thirty six percent win percentage since Tom
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: Kofflin left. But you talk to John Mara and he'll say,
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: Daniel Jones is a really good player. Well, you overpay
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: for good. You can never overpay for great. You can
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: never overpay for great. You're never overpaying Patrick Mahomes. You're
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: not overpaying Josh Allen. But you're going to overpay Brandon
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: Au because the media wants you to overpay him because
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: he thinks he's a top five receiver when yet his
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: numbers don't even are not the same as DJ Moore,
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: who makes twenty seven and a half night. That's where
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: you get in trouble with the cap and I think
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: that's where Miami is now. You know, they've paid no
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: attention to the offensive and defensive lines, which to me
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: is the essence of how you win championships.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Isn't it interesting just to go back to the GM
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: thing for one second? You know, I watched the Hard
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Knots with the Giants, and I thought they're GM. In
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: those early couple of episodes about Saquon Barkley, they tried
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: to frame him as being a little bit out of
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: his depth, when in fact, he very well may be
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: on the right side history here because that offensive line
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: was so bad, and if you've invested in Daniel Jones,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: you basically have this season to figure out is he
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: any good or not. You can't overspend on Saquon and
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: not do anything to improve the offensive line, which, by
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the way, it's why we look at offensive and defensive
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: line rankings when we're doing these previews. But Mike, from
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: your point of view, when you saw how Joe Shine
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: was managing that situation and came across in Hard Knocks,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: was that a nightmare for you as a GM. Did
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: you think, oh, he's managing as well? What was your
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: take on that.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: I thought he managed like somebody at Biggie Sports bar
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: up in North Jersey. I thought he hurt our profession
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: in the sense that it wasn't That's not how it
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: should be run. There should be models. If we signed
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: Brian Burns and pay this, this is what our team
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: looks like. If we sign, if we don't, we sign
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: these five players. This is what our team looks like.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: It's never about one thing. And he's talked about what
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: you said. I agreed with offensive line, but signing Germaine
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: Alumino or doesn't. If he's your best top offensive lineman,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: you better go back to your pro personnel guy and say,
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: wait a minute, something's wrong here. This guy's been on
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: six teams. He's our pro best, he's our best player.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: And then they signed running and that's it. See, everything
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: the Giants have done is always about protecting their draft picks.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: Evan Neil's still on pup, can't play, they need to write.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: So now Allumino's playing right tackle. So they signed Van
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: Note who is Now they have the Raiders right side
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: of the line of last year? How do you think
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: that's going to work out for him? So for me,
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: what I had a real issue with.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: I learned this.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: From the Giants because of Belichick and because of everything ourselves.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: There's no identity there. We don't know who they are.
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: I want a general manager walk in and say this
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: is who we are. We're going to rebuild, this is
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: what we're going to build, a deep like I would
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: have signed Christian Wilkins and pay whatever it took, then
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: signed Brian Burns because with Lawrence and Wilkins inside, now
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts is going to have to run around the pocket.
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Let me ask you both this question. Did you ever
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: hear them ever say how are we going to beat Dallas?
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: How are we going to beat Philly? Al Davis is
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: going to deserk not launce? Did they ever mention ol
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: Davis would have gone berserk by not hearing that? So
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: for me, it was a little too fandom for me
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: because I take great pride in the profession. But it's
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: not about what players should we sign, it's how are
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: we going to build this team?
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: New England one hundred and eighty to one to win
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl twenty five to one plus twenty five
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: hundred to win the division.
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: You know what I call those odds. Those are Saint
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: Jude's plays. Chad, give them money to Saint Jud's. Give
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: them money to Saint Jude's. Right, say give them money.
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: Those kids at Saint Jud's are fighting and we should
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: help them. Don't waste your money on the Patriots. Give
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: it to Saint Juds.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: It's only people out on Route one who are betting
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: those numbers.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think they are.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: And the win total is four and a half. Combine
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: this with the second hardest schedule, an A Line rank
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: of twenty eighth, a D Line rank of fifteenth, Simon.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: What I do know is that we're going to bet
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: the Patriots in Week one. After that, I pretty much
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: think we're at again.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: No, it has to be per set, but yeah, they
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: like they're already having a disaster camp where I think
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: their best de tackle has like blood clots or something
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: like that. And he came he's out for the year. Yeah,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: And if you watch his tape chat, this is like
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: a hand picked Belichick guy, Like this guy is ascending
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: to be one of the better players in the league,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: and now he might not play this season. You know
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: they're they're putting a lot onto Christian Dallas at the
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: quarnerback position, which is a guy that I thought, you know,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Belichick coached up great and he was one of their
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: best corners, and you know, you think he's gonna be better,
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: but again Bill's gone. That's my biggest issue with this team.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: It's like people want to keep talking abot how good
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: their defense was last year, and it's like, I don't
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: think they understand that having the greatest mind ever that
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: coach the defense, it's gonna be a big loss, Like
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: he's not gonna be there and put them into these situations,
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: which is what Belichick's so great. He's so great at
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: putting these guys into great situations where it's like, oh,
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: we've practiced this situation a thousand times, exactly what to
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: do in these spots. That's gone. Even if the coach
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: they brought in is a guy who's off Belichick's tree,
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: it's still different. They're just because the guy played from
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: doesn't that means gonna have the same style. So this
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: is a team. I wanted to bet their over honesty
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: check because I wanted to be like, you know what,
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: they're not gonna be as bad as people perceive. But
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: it's more I dug into if they've drafted these two
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: really good wide receivers's this upcoming season, there's still not enough,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: not enough there for me to build on. Where you
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: already talked about. It's the division's brutal, and their schedule
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: is brutal. It's just I can't find the wins there.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: So they right now are the number one team for
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: worst record. So if you want to bet them worst record,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: I think it's only plus three fifty, which is the
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: smallest dodge you can get right now. And worst team
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: of football. Now, let you know where the bookmakers are at.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: They envisioned his team being, you know, either one number
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: one or two pick, and that means you're gonna have
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: to have to make a decision on Drake Namos likely,
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: which sounds stupid, but it's like we've seen it before.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: Right when Josh Rosen, the Cardinals were like, all right,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: we're out on this guy. They were happy to take
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: clim Erray with the number one pick. I mean, we
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: didn't eve talk about the Eagles. They did pay Wins
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: all that money and they took Hurts, not even two
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: years later in a draft the Bears the best most
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: recent example, they moved on right away. So the teams
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: are quickly pro Trey Lance, right. So I wouldn't be
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: shocked to see Drake May by a week four or five,
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: even if we don't think he's ready and people don't
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: think he's ready, they might be in the position where
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: it's like, well, this kid coming out now is upposed
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: to be the next big thing. We might have a
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: number one pick. We got to see what we have
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: here in Drake May, which again I don't totally agree with,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: but at the same time, they might not have a
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: choice here. So yeah, it's like you're talking about these
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: numbers here. It doesn't even seem to real that they
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: are twenty five to one in the list division. That's
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: how far they have fallen. And it's it's all over right,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Bill's gone, Tom's gone. It's really dark days ahead for
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: this new England team right now. So I think them
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: having the most the best on odds that number one
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: pick is not shocking. We just think it's gonna be
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: a bottom feeding year for this this new England team.
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: Mike, I think to me, you know, look, nobody talks
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: about losing Belichick. The sixth best team in red zone
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: defense last year, six best team and third down that's
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: going to change.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: That's the scheme element of the game that's controlled by
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: not as much talent as is by scheme on third
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: and out and in the red zone. So those numbers
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: are going to go up. In six games, they scored
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: less than ten points. They had the worst field goal
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: kicker in football, and yet you know they were in games.
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: They weren't as bad as their record. They were horribly
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: coached offensively, no mistake. But the thing that worries your
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: most is moving forward with a young quarterback, is their
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: tackle poor. They have no offensive tackles. They signed Michael
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: Alanu to be the right tackle, but he showed up
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: at three hundred and eighty pounds. They had a movement
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: to guard. He's too fat, so they have no right
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: to the right tackle now is Calvin Anderson, who was
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: had malaria last year when he took a trip to Africa,
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: so I don't know where that is. And then left
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: tackle is the kid that Pittsburgh cut Okafer, he's going
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: to be They have no tax. You can't play with
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: no offensive line, and so you know. Yeah, I think, Look,
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: the reason you like that them in week one is
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: because Zach Taylor zero and four and two of the
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: first two games of the year the last two seasons.
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: So that makes all the sense in the world. I
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: get that he says he's changing how he's preparing his team,
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: but there's no way this defense. The defense played one
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: hundred and thirty one more plays in their offense last year.
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: That's two full games. Yeah, that's a doubleheader, you know.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: And so you're on the field weight and that's what
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: the sixth best third down defense. So think about how
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: bad this offense is. And so I don't see it.
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: Mayo is a first time head coach. He's got twenty
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: five people on his coaching staff. How does he manage
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: twenty five people? He's never managed anybody in his life.
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: Covington has never coordinated before. I think this is a
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: mess I would play if I played anything. I'm going
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: to say, they're going to have the first pick of
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: the draft. They are going to be everybody's survivor pick
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: pretty much every week in the circuit contest. You know,
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: out where where our studio is that there, people are
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: going to run to the to bet them. And for
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: all the talk that Belichick can't be a GM, they've
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: signed all his players back. It's funny, it's it's all.
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: It's all the media. How the perception comes in.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Well, it is amazing the Belichick hate that has happened
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: the past twenty four months. You know, everyone loves the
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady narrative and that he was the reason. But
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: I'll pose a different question to you. Andy Reid has
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: now won two Super Bowls in a row. He's got
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: three overall. He's going to stick around, I guess for
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: as long as he wants, or you know, until he
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: realizes that he doesn't have Patrick Mahomes anymore. Do you
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: feel like there is any chance Andy Reid takes over
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: the mantle of best coach of all time from Bill Belichick?
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: Well, I think no.
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: But because you know, when he's an Eagle fan, you
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: remember a lot of the heartache, a lot of conference
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: championship games, a lot of some really strange game management decisions.
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: I used to say Andy should outsource his game management
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: to India at times when he would do some things
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: that I wasn't sure what he was doing, but.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: Said the running Joko Philly is Andy Reid the best
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: coach for fifty eight minutes. It's the last two. Yeah.
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: And he's gotten away with it with Mahomes because you
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: go back to the Tampa game when they played down there,
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: four third down, he calls, Look, I think Andy's great,
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: but I think Bill. You know, that whole documentary irritates
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: the hell out of me because I was in the building.
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: I know what he did.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: The fact that Super Bowl winning general manager Terry Fottna
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: of the Alata Falcons says that he was not even
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: in their top three candidates is a little bit of
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: a ridiculous statement, right, you know you're telling me there's
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: four better. Meanwhile, if you asked Andy Reid who don't
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: you want to compete against? Or ask Kyle Shannan, who
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: don't you want to compete against? I think the answer
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: would be Belichick and the page have treated him like
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: he didn't do anything there, and so now they're going
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: to find out what life's like without a great coach.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: And I'm going to enjoy watching it, I really am.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: If you're starting a team, right, you get hired tomorrow
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: by a team and you've got to hire a head coach.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Money is no object. You can go after anybody in
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: the NFL right now, you're not going to go after
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Andy Reid. But of the class of coaches, which is
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: basically anyone who's ever shaken Sean mcvay's hand, who do
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: you decide to go hire?
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: Well, I think to me, old school hasn't gone out
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: of style. Andy Reid's going to play as guys in
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: the preseason. Andy Reid has truft taty camps. He's the
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: best coach in football. Andy Reid finds ways to play
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: the game each week differently. So this whole notion that
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: you have to be a player friendly coach isn't exactly
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: how Kansas City operates their program. I mean I would
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: hire Bill because I would get the best defensive coach.
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: I'm going to have great team toughness. I need that.
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: You can't be a team like Miami without toughness. Mike
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: McDaniel is great for the media, but East four and
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: ten over the last second half of the season, you
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: know there's no toughness to that team. There's no idea,
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: there's no I'm going to punch you in the mouth.
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: Football is a game of punching in the mouth. So
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: I would do that. But this week we've become a
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: softler gentler league. Well, I worked for Bill Walsh when
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: we went to practice at Rockland in a hundred degree
• 54:23
  Speaker 3: heat at eight thirty in the morning. We didn't walk
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: off that field to eleven thirty, and we had an
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: afternoon practice that was a walkthrough with special teams or
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: it was a special teams. I mean, it was hard.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: It was grueling.
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: That's what the NFL is. It's a grueling marathon. And
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: John Harball knows that. That's why I think the Chargers
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: are going to be better because Jim Harball is going
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: to give them toughness. So I want somebody who can
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: develop talent and who's going to give a team a
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: toughness and who can be a strategist. I mean, how
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: many times do you want to watch a coach Nick
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: Siriani's going berzerk on the sideline. I don't want that.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: I want to I want a chess player. I want
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: somebody thinking. I want somebody like Belichick who's watching Seattle's
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: sideline and he sees Pete Carroll and they're not organized,
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: and he doesn't call time out even though I'm up
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: in the booth screaming for him to call time out,
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: and he blocks me out and he says something's not right,
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: and we intercept them in the Super Bowl.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, that is one of the greatest clips
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: from NFL films where everybody is begging him to call
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: time out and he sees that something isn't right and
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: he decides not to do a Simon. You know what
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the pic, Oh.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: So good, so good. Lombardi listen GM Shuffle is amazing.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: You've written a book years ago. I remember you sent
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: it to me. Fantastic, Thank great insight, Thanks for coming
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: on the show. Thanks reminder of the favorite. What's that buddy?
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. I'll keep listening all year, don't worry.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: I love it as a reminder of the favorite. Podcast
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