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E57 - Beating the Bookies with their own Numbers
Episode 57 - Lisandro Kaunitz and Javier Kreiner
Lisandro and Javier discuss a research paper they wrote about the online sports betting market.
They designed a strategy to beat bookmakers with their own numbers. The strategy proved profitable in a 10-year historical simulation using closing odds, a 6-month historical simulation using minute to minute odds, and a 5-month period during which they staked real money with the bookmakers (the code, data and models are publicly available). They also describe their betting experience to illustrate how the sports gambling industry compensates these…
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